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#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 earnings report is out, with explosive numbers, but the stock price fell. Perhaps expectations were too high, and people have already priced in the stock.
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit rose 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall account for 79%. Demand for AI chips continues to support performance, making this a very solid foundation.
However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies with the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margins decline, it indicates that cost pressures from advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is another key point to watch.#Strive increased its BTC holdings by 2,822 coins in two days, with total holdings exceeding 35,000 coins $BTC
In eight weeks, it grew by 62%, while the largest one increased by less than 1%.
▪️ Added 12,527 coins from 8/14 to 10/9, a holding growth of about 62%
▪️ During the same period, Strategy's holdings rose from 840,447 to 848,250 coins, an increase of less than 1%
▪️ Added another 2,822 coins in two days, with holdings exceeding 35,000 coins
▪️ Metaplanet sold 10,000 coins in Q3 but bought back 11,000, a net increase of 1,000 coins
▪️ Twenty One has not increased holdings since July 2025, and MARA has remained basically flat since May
The divergence is not about who holds the most coins, but about "holding rankings" in terms of volume stock and "growth rankings" in terms of volume increase.
840,447 to 848,250 is a change in stock, 12,527 versus 20,246 is a change in increment—two completely opposite rankings in the same industry.
The direction suggests waiting and watching—small-cap companies continuing to absorb increments is the real trend; if the large-cap one accelerates again, the pattern returns to stock.🔥Market Analysis | South Korean Stocks Plunge, Memory Sector Under Pressure, US Stock Market Opening Preview Tonight
Key image information: South Korea's KOSPI plunged over 6% intraday, triggering the Sidecar programmatic sell suspension mechanism; SK Hynix dropped over 8%, Samsung Electronics fell nearly 7%, dragging the Nikkei 225 down over 3%, with Japanese and Korean chip stocks collectively weakening. $SNDK $MU
✅Event Logic
The core reason for the current sell-off in South Korean stocks is the semiconductor memory sector. The market is worried that technical breakthroughs by Changxin Memory will bring long-term supply shocks, compounded by inflation and interest rate expectations disturbances, leading to concentrated sell-offs in memory chip targets. Samsung and SK Hynix, as the two global DRAM leaders, have plunged sharply, which will directly transmit negative sentiment to US memory stocks (Micron MU, SanDisk SNDK).
📊US Stock Market Opening Simulation Tonight
1. Pre-market sentiment: The memory sector is highly likely to open lower under pressure. The sharp declines of Korean and Japanese memory giants represent negative sentiment spillover in the sector, so Micron and SanDisk are likely to be dragged down at the open. But it should be distinguished that this is a long-term competitive expectation negative, not a current earnings shock for the companies.
2. Differentiation Opportunities
Micron MU: Business covers DRAM, more strongly impacted by the South Korean stock decline linkage, with greater volatility.
SanDisk SNDK: Mainly NAND flash memory, with no direct competition with the DRAM track. If capital rationally differentiates the tracks, there is a chance for it to show relatively resilient performance later.
3. Major Market Variables
Don't just look at South Korean stocks; US Treasury yields, tonight's PPI data, and overall Nasdaq sentiment also have significant influence. If US Treasury yields fall back, it will hedge some of the panic in the chip sector.台积电Q3财报出来了，数字炸裂，但股价跌了。 营收同比增长50.9%到1.49万亿新台币，净利润同比增长68.7%到7631亿，创季度新高，超过市场预期。2nm制程占晶圆营收的8%，先进制程整体占比79%。AI芯片需求持续为业绩提供支撑，这个基本盘很硬。 但股价跌了2.67%。问题出在毛利率指引上。公司给的65%到67%，低于Q2实际的67.7%。市场担心的是，AI芯片再旺，如果毛利率往下走，说明先进制程的成本压力在吃掉利润。另外资本开支会不会进一步上调，也是接下来要盯的。 对BTC来说，这事不直接，但底层逻辑连着。台积电是AI算力基建的核心供应商，它的营收和利润验证了AI需求是真实的，算力经济的叙事没断，BTC作为底层锚定物的长期逻辑还在。但毛利率指引偏弱，说明烧钱的代价在上升，整个半导体链条$SKHYNIX SNDK $SKHYNIX Hynix has started to consolidate while SanDisk is plummeting!!!
Institutions have begun to support Hynix, so Chai didn't dare to short it, but this time Chai plans to short SanDisk hard.
Recently, Chinese manufacturers have substantially overtaken; Yangtze Memory has completed its overtaking in the NAND market, and Changxin Memory's breakthrough in the DRAM field has caused panic across the entire sector, coupled with many institutions lowering target prices, leading the market to briefly lose confidence in SanDisk.
Additionally, continuous insider selling at SanDisk, along with CPI data exceeding market expectations, dollar appreciation, and tech stocks collectively under pressure. In the short term, Hynix has triggered a protective cushion mechanism; institutions have started to support the stock, and retail investors and whales are beginning to look forward to extra shareholder returns after the Q3 earnings report.
SNDK current price is a good entry for short positions: 1348, first target 1322, stop loss 1400. The above is personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $NEAR perpetual 50x short position, opened at 5.075, currently at 4.563, floating profit +504.43%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that chips are ready to be distributed. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 5.075, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 50x leverage, stop loss at 5.2. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 4.8 to let profits run. If 4.2 breaks down with volume, I will continue holding; if it doesn't break, I will close all positions. $BTC $ETH #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Netflix guided Q3 revenue growth of 12% and an operating margin of 33.2%. The year-ago margin was 28.2%, but that quarter included a $619M Brazil tax charge, so the comparison flatters it. A beat or miss hinges on ads. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 最脆弱的一环从来不是方向，是仓位太挤之后大家都不肯先走。 你猜现在最难受的是空头还是追高的人？ 刷到Maji大哥的永续持仓更新，我盯着那组数字看了很久。整体还是BTC空加ETH多再加HYPE空的组合，但账面盈亏已经跟着行情撕成两半。 - BTC空单四十倍全仓，持仓243.96枚，名义约1994万U，开仓84070，未实现盈利约56.87万U，资金费还收了6.41万U，爆仓价104380附近。 - ETH多单二十五倍全仓，持仓7222枚，名义约1743万U，开仓2541，浮亏约92.27万U，爆仓价1623.5。 - HYPE空单五倍全仓，持仓26.83万枚，名义约2168万U，开仓66.24，浮亏约390.94万U，但资金费收入约104.2万U，爆仓价99.76。 这组仓位其实在讲一件事。钱现在更愿意奖励看空BTC的人，却还在惩罚看空HYPE的人。前者顺着宏观避险和风险偏好收缩的方向，后者撞上了叙事和买盘的惯性。ETH夹在中间，既没跟上BTC的疲软，也没吃到HYPE那种情绪溢价，所以它的多单成了拖累。 我更在意的是情绪层面。HYPE这笔浮亏已经接近390万U，换成一般人早就砍了，但大哥#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 ⚠️Risks to watch
1. Slight sequential decline in gross margin, mainly due to higher costs during the ramp-up phase of the 2nm new process, which drags down gross margin in the short term
2. Heavy reliance on major AI clients; if AI capital expenditures cool down in the future, orders will face pressure
3. Overseas factory construction (USA, Japan) has high costs and long build cycles, which will continue to increase capital expenditure pressure
✅Summary in one sentence
AI computing power demand continues to explode, driving TSMC's advanced process orders to be full and pushing profits to a record high for six consecutive quarters; 2nm mass production is proceeding smoothly, maintaining technological barriers, but high capital expenditure and AI demand fluctuations are the two major variables going forward.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, hitting a record high in earnings. TSMC's Q3 revenue also reached a new high; what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm capacity being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it will be interesting to see if management raises the full-year revenue growth forecast and increases capital expenditure.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout for post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered. Looking ahead:
▶️ Beware of short-term profit-taking
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Deep long-term moat
Major players' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend.
Do you think it will take Elon Musk's offer in Texas, or stick to steady progress?Once the CPI was released, many people's first reaction was: prices are heating up again, gold should shine on stage, right?✨
Reality slapped back: gold prices plunged, instantly evaporating 1.65%, breaking 4096, even touching 4088.😵
BTC, however, acted like nothing happened, strolling in the 81000–83000 range.🚶♂️
The logic isn't complicated: stubborn inflation → Fed dares not ease → high interest rates persist → US Treasury yields surge → gold holding costs rise → funds retreat.📉
The gold script has long changed: it used to be "inflation comes, I rise," now it's "Fed hawkish, I kneel."🦅
At the end of the day, gold, BTC, and US stocks seem to be doing their own thing, but they're all betting on the same question: will liquidity ease or not.💧
Don't fight the candlesticks, first watch the central bank's mood. The market hasn't gone crazy, it just changed directors.🎬#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, setting a record high for earnings. TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a new high again, but the quarter-over-quarter decline in gross margin is the biggest highlight of this earnings report. AI demand is confirmed to be strong, but large-scale capacity expansion brings depreciation pressure, which is starting to erode gross margins. The market has long since priced in the high Q3 revenue, with all bets now on the Q4 revenue guidance and capital expenditure plans.
Capital expenditure has been raised, which is a long-term positive for capacity and consolidates the monopoly position in advanced process technology; the short-term cost is pressure on profit margins. Musk's Terafab negotiations for foundry services are a long-term theme with no short-term earnings contribution. The upcoming earnings call will focus on three key points: Q4 revenue guidance, the extent of the capital expenditure increase, and management's stance on the future gross margin baseline. Aramco headquarters attacked, the news is alarming, but don't jump to conclude that the office building damage means crude oil production has already been cut.
On October 14, the Associated Press cited regional officials saying that Aramco's headquarters in Dammam was hit, with damage to the floor housing senior offices, and no casualties reported. This indicates that core corporate office facilities are also under threat, but it does not tell us how much oilfield output or export shipments have decreased.
I think what should be separated here is the loss that has already occurred and the market's concern about the risk of the next attack. The former needs to be verified through production, refinery, and port operation data; the latter may cause buyers to worry about delivery even before any shutdown. Both affect prices, but they cannot be substituted with the same narrative.
If it is later confirmed that production continues as usual, the supply gap should not be exaggerated based on speculation. But what about the next time? Repeated attacks will keep people questioning whether critical facilities can operate safely. The risk remains, but specific losses need separate verification.
I hope casualties and damage stop soon, and I do not want every attack to be used as material to hype the market. Going forward, I will pay closer attention to Aramco's operational statements and whether actual exports have changed. When making energy assessments, admitting "we currently don't know how much production has been cut" is more responsible than filling gaps with unverified evidence just to support a strong viewpoint. The headquarters being hit is serious enough; there is no need to add unconfirmed supply losses.
#沙特阿美总部遇袭，原油供应受关注 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Q3 net profit indeed exploded, but the stock price instead dropped more than 2%, a typical case of “good news priced in as bad news.” The market is not selling off the present, but the Q4 gross margin guidance (65%-67%) being lower than Q2. AI demand is certain, but the ramp-up of 2nm and overseas factory construction costs are starting to show, plus capital expenditures may be further increased, causing concerns about profit margin peaking.
In the short term, it’s valuation digestion; in the long term, the AI structural logic remains intact. I choose to wait for a pullback and stabilization before considering, not chasing highs.
What does everyone think? Is the gross margin decline a short-term disturbance or a long-term trend? #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 ⚠️Risks to watch
1. Slight sequential decline in gross margin, mainly due to higher costs during the ramp-up phase of the 2nm new process, which drags down gross margin in the short term
2. Heavy reliance on major AI clients; if AI capital expenditures cool down in the future, orders will face pressure
3. Overseas factory construction (USA, Japan) has high costs and long build cycles, which will continue to increase capital expenditure pressure
✅Summary in one sentence
AI computing power demand continues to explode, driving TSMC's advanced process orders to be full and pushing profits to a record high for six consecutive quarters; 2nm mass production is proceeding smoothly, maintaining technological barriers, but high capital expenditure and AI demand fluctuations are the two major variables going forward.$BLUR is seeing large-scale offloading on-chain; I'm confident in this short position.
Brothers, most people are bullish, so let's go the other way and be bearish! On-chain data has already revealed the trump card.
According to Arkham's monitoring, this morning an anonymous address transferred a massive 98.57 million BLUR (about $4 million) directly to Coinbase Prime. This is a clear sign of big money offloading. Market maker Wintermute hasn't been idle either, having transferred about $2.6 million worth of BLUR to OKX, Binance, and Coinbase cumulatively. When market makers move coins to exchanges, it's never to support the price; it's to prepare for selling.
The harshest move came from the Korean exchange Upbit, which has added BLUR to its trading warning list and suspended deposit and withdrawal services. Experienced players know this process well; the next likely step is delisting. Once delisted, liquidity will instantly dry up, and escaping will be impossible.
On-chain data is more honest than candlestick charts. I opened a short at 0.0127 and will hold it, with a stop loss above 0.0132. The downside target is first 0.012, and if broken, then 0.011. The rest is up to time.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 TSMC just delivered another record quarter. The margin story is more nuanced.
TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.494T, up 50.9% YoY, and net profit of NT$763.06B, up 68.7%. Net profit set a quarterly record and beat the NT$746.34B LSEG SmartEstimate cited by CNBC.
The technology mix shows where demand is moving:
· 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% in Q2
· 3nm contributed 33%, followed by 5nm at 28% and 7nm at 10%
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 earnings report looks impressive, with profits reaching a quarterly record high, but the gross margin is not as good as the previous quarter. The positive news was already priced in by the market, so once the report was released, funds quickly exited and the stock price closed down. Therefore, I think the future depends on whether AI chip orders can be maintained.Let's talk about today's "Top Predictor" incident. I'm not familiar with the person involved, so I'll discuss the matter without referring to the individual.
It's actually quite simple: some things "don't weigh four taels on an uncalibrated scale, but even a thousand pounds can't suppress them once on the scale." Prediction markets are a legal gray area in many countries, not just domestically. Moreover, most countries regard prediction markets as a variant of gambling or betting, and basically require corresponding licenses.
Sometimes playing privately won't get you into trouble, but if you run a community and recruit people to play, problems arise. People say prediction markets have strategies, but 99% of people can't guarantee consistent profits. When people make money, everyone is harmonious; but when they lose? After losing repeatedly and getting frustrated, they might really "blame" the person who brought them into it.
Article 303 of the Criminal Law concerns gambling:
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 1: Gambling Crime
Organizing gambling with multiple people or gambling as a profession for profit.
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 2: Operating a Casino Crime
Operating a casino, controlling gambling platforms, acting as an agent to accept bets, or participating in related profit sharing.
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 3: Organizing or Participating in Overseas Gambling Crime
Recruiting Chinese citizens to gamble at overseas casinos, reaching legally defined serious circumstances.
So playing by yourself is fine, but recruiting others to play requires careful consideration. Because my profile also mentions prediction markets, and many project parties have approached me for commission sharing, but I never engage in that. Some money is not worth making; safety comes first.1. AI computing power remains the main engine
High-performance computing platform revenue accounts for 68%, a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase, making it the core growth driver. AI demand has extended from GPUs/accelerators to AI agent CPUs and network chips, with customers still competing for capacity.
2. The proportion of advanced process nodes continues to rise
Advanced processes of 7nm and below account for 79% in total. Among them, 3nm accounts for 33%, 5nm for 28%, and 2nm for 8%. The 2nm share increased from 3% last quarter to 8%, indicating that customers are accelerating migration to more advanced nodes.
3. Order visibility extends to 2027
TSMC expects Q4 revenue of $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion, with a midpoint of about $53.3 billion, significantly higher than the market expectation of $50.35 billion; the full-year USD revenue growth guidance was raised from "slightly above 40%" to about 44%.
Pressure points to note
Gross margin slightly declined quarter-on-quarter, dropping from 67.7% to 66.4%, mainly due to profit dilution from early 2nm mass production and cost pressures from overseas capacity expansion.
Capital expenditure is extremely high. Capital spending in 2026 is maintained at $60 billion to $64 billion, a record high; the market expects it may further rise to $75 billion to $90 billion in 2027. The intensity of capacity expansion is unprecedented and will suppress profit margins in the short term.
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 1$NVDA $AAPL From a comparative perspective, NVIDIA’s current share buybacks primarily serve to offset the dilution caused by employee stock-based compensation, making it difficult to consistently thicken EPS through buybacks alone, unlike Apple.
If NVIDIA were to emulate Apple’s mature capital allocation strategy by consistently using its substantial, stable free cash flow for secondary market buybacks and subsequent share cancellations—thereby achieving genuine net share count shrinkage—its EPS would receive sustained additional accretion, assuming its AI computing foundation remains solid. This would significantly boost market confidence in its valuation and serve as a key incremental driver for valuation expansion, potentially paving the way for NVIDIA to challenge a $10 trillion market cap.
For young investors, Apple-style stocks should undoubtedly be the core holding in your primary portfolio position.$BTC 🔥 10.15 Evening Report
On the same day, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all weakened together.
But the reasons behind the three bearish candles are different.
Different reasons for the decline:
$BTC is driven by sentiment selling; no large holders fleeing on-chain.
There is still support near the 400-day moving average.
$ETH is seeing capital withdrawal:
ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are moving out.
Some are actively reducing positions, not just following the drop.
$SOL is pressured by contracts:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, prices pushed down by leverage.
Spot outflows are limited, no large-scale chip turnover.
Just looking at the order of decline can easily mistake sentiment for trend.
Distinguishing the source helps identify where the noise is.#CoreWeave股债双跌，CEO回应融资担忧 $CRWV
The promissory note borrowed at 100 and repaid at 100 is now only worth 78.
▪️ On 10/14, the stock price dropped 15% to $65.78, the largest single-day drop since February
▪️ The unsecured bond maturing in 2032 with a coupon of 9.625% saw its yield rise to 14.8%
▪️ The secondary price of this bond fell below 78 cents on the dollar
▪️ Credit default swaps rose to a record high
▪️ The CEO called the market "irrational" in an internal memo, stating that the backlog of contracts is sufficient to cover the debt
▪️ During the same period, Oracle fell 9%, Nebius fell 11%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.4%
The disagreement is not about whether AI computing power demand is sufficient; the pricing on this chain first occurs in the bond market.
A 15% drop in stock measures valuation, while a drop to 78 cents in bonds measures credit — the same company, two markets giving two different assessments. Heavy assets, long payback periods, and rapid equipment depreciation combined mean it must continuously refinance. The bond maturity is longer than the customer contracts.
The direction is to wait and see — bond prices returning above 90 cents indicate credit repair; further decline would tighten the financing chain first.#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what else is there to consider at Thursday's earnings call?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced earlier, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call will not focus on revenue, but on the costs behind the revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to the 2nm ramp diluting about 3 to 4 percentage points. The market consensus is about 66.5%, so staying at the upper end of the range would be good news.
The second hurdle is capital expenditure. In July, it was already raised from $52 to $56 billion to $60 to $64 billion, so $64 billion is not a number waiting to be revised upward, but the current ceiling. Management previously said that capital expenditure would be "significantly higher" over the next three years; this time, it depends on how much they say.
Regarding the stock price, the ADR closed at $485.80 on 10/6, with this year's high at $487.47; the latest available closing price is $472.20 on 10/8. The demonstration was impressive, but then what?
What I most want to see with $FET is whether customers will continue to use the AI agent after it completes a task.
The official demo shows the agent supports payments in FET, as well as USDC and other methods, so growth in agent transactions cannot be directly translated into proportional FET demand.
This is not to dismiss the product, but to clarify the usage path.
Why customers pay, what they pay with, and how much balance they need to keep in advance—these details determine how business growth affects the token.
A single successful demo can attract attention, but repeated paid transactions are more worth tracking.
$AR's business has a different aspect: users prepay fees, and the network must bear long-term storage.
Part of the upload fee goes into a storage fund to support future storage expenses.
Therefore, receiving a fee cannot be fully regarded as immediately distributable profit.
I will look at both new storage demand and long-term maintenance costs.
An increase in orders is commendable, but the commitment to how long data is preserved also means responsibility for that duration.
For $OP, what I want to see is whether the ecosystem investments have follow-up effects.
Governance arrangements involve fund allocation; it’s not enough to just see how much support a project received.
If incentives end and users leave accordingly, then previous activity needs to be reassessed.
If applications can retain users and gradually generate their own revenue, the investment is more convincing.
It’s easy to count how much was distributed, but what remains is more worth studying.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 earnings report is very strong, but what I think is truly worth noting is not just the "exceeding expectations," but that despite such a good report, the stock price still fell.
Q3 revenue was 1.49 trillion TWD, up 50.9% year-over-year; net profit was 763.1 billion, up 68.7% year-over-year, continuing to set a new historical high. AI demand remains the biggest driver.
This indicates one thing:
AI is no longer just a story; there are real orders and real spending.
Companies like NVIDIA sell GPUs, but ultimately they rely on TSMC for production. As long as advanced process technology and computing power demand continue to expand, TSMC is the most direct "shovel seller" in the AI industry chain.
But the problem is also clear.
The market's expectations for AI are too high now; it's no longer enough to just have "good performance," but you are required to continue exceeding expectations every quarter.
TSMC has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to about 44%, and capital expenditures remain high, indicating the company still has confidence in AI demand.
So I think what the AI sector really needs to watch now is not "whether there is demand," but:
Whether such large capital expenditures can ultimately continue to convert into profits.
The fundamentals are not bad; what really needs caution is—
Whether the market has already priced in the good news for the next two to three years in advance.
@OKX星球 Bitcoin $BTC has already fallen back to around $81,000, and Ethereum $ETH dropped to a low of $2,315. Market risk appetite is declining, especially with capital becoming cautious toward high-volatility assets.
I believe the main reason for this drop is that the US CPI exceeded expectations, causing market concerns that the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace might be affected; secondly, after prices broke key levels, leveraged long positions were liquidated en masse, further amplifying the decline.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin $BTC is first watching whether $80,000 can hold, with resistance above at $82,000–$83,000; Ethereum is watching the $2,300 support, and any rebound must first reclaim $2,400–$2,450; if Bitcoin breaks below $80,000, then Ethereum’s $2,300 level might also break.
The most important thing now is not to guess the bottom, but to see if there is decent support after the decline. Without volume-driven stabilization and without reclaiming key resistance levels, one should not easily mistake a rebound for a reversal. Going forward, focus on US interest rate expectations, market trading volume, and leveraged liquidation situations to see if the market can stabilize first. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Although Tesla's Q3 deliveries exceeded market expectations, they still declined by 2.1% year-over-year, revealing hidden concerns. The delivery mix is the biggest pressure point: sales of high-margin US domestic models have fallen, while the proportion of low-margin Chinese models has risen, which will directly drag down the overall vehicle gross margin.
The market is now betting on earnings recovery in the financial report, but relying solely on cost dilution through sales volume is unlikely to reverse profit pressure. Beyond the automotive business, progress in Robotaxi and Optimus are additional variables. If the AI business does not achieve substantial breakthroughs, it will be difficult for delivery data alone to drive the stock price higher, and there is a risk that the financial report will fall short of expectations.$ETH has dropped to the point where some are starting to calculate weekly target levels.
After a night of decline, $ETH holders have begun reviewing the weekly charts.
Some set the target at 2130, and looking further down to 2000.
What is this price level: 2130 is not a support level, but the cost zone of the previous batch of long positions.
When the price reaches there, it means their stop-loss orders will be queued and swept.
Who places orders here: Market makers don’t look at direction, only at how thick the orders are on both sides.
If one side is thick, they push the price down, then pull it back after breaking through.
What will happen next: $BTC will follow down to 80,000, and $ETH’s depth will only get thinner.
With thinner depth, the same amount of sell volume can cause a larger drop.
Looking back, there was no dense trading between 2130 and 2000.
If it really falls into that range, the speed will be faster than the previous drop.
#渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展
#$ETH $BTC "Hawkish night, bulls carried away" 💥
20:30, data released: Core 2.6%, exceeding expectations, hawkish. 🦅
The market was silent at first, then declined steadily. $BTC slid from 82797, $ETH gasping around 2500.
21:58, first strike. In a single minute, long positions liquidated 9.4 million, 155 trades. 😱
22:05, second strike. BTC longs 1.76 million, ETH longs 1.25 million, both wiped out. Prices stopped at 82125, 2438.
22:15 review: 1-hour total network liquidation 62.43 million, 90% longs bloodied; 24-hour 240 million, 74,596 people exited. 🚑
Before the release, bulls and bears fought; after the release, one-sided long hunting. Some bet on "bad news fully priced in," but bad news was not over, stop losses and liquidations trampled each other.
Funding rates also split: BTC still positive, bulls not giving up; ETH turned negative, bears took over. ETH intraday -2.99%, ETF inflows for 10 consecutive days. 📉
BERA +7.3% to 0.2365, funding rate -0.0109%, bears adding positions; A +4.59% to 0.1045. The rise of the altcoin feels like borrowed fire. 🔥
My conclusion: the long liquidation is not over. BTC 82000 is the critical point, break below targets 81000; ETH breaks 2400, down to 2300.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 earnings report is out, the numbers are explosive, but the stock price fell.
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit rose 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with advanced processes making up 79% overall. Demand for AI chips continues to support performance, this foundation is very solid.
However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies in the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margins decline, it indicates that cost pressures in advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is something to watch.
For BTC, this is not direct, but the underlying logic is connected. TSMC is a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure; its revenue and profit validate that AI demand is real, and the narrative of the computing power economy remains intact. BTC's long-term logic as the underlying anchor still holds. But the weaker gross margin guidance shows the cost of burning cash is rising, and the valuation of the entire semiconductor chain needs to be reabsorbed. In the short term, BTC is still bearing the pressure of CPI exceeding expectations; the impact of TSMC's earnings report is secondary.
In terms of action, don't chase tech stocks just because TSMC's profits exceeded expectations. Wait for PPI data, see how US Treasury yields and the dollar move, then decide whether to enter. $TSM $xTSM By direction and leverage:
Short positions: 37 trades, 95% win rate, net profit 4039, not a single forced liquidation.
Long positions: 39 trades, 72% win rate, net profit only 1388, all 6 forced liquidations were long positions.
100x leverage: 28 trades net profit only 781, with 530 spent on fees.
Within 10x leverage: 10 trades net profit 738, average profit per trade similar to 100x but with almost no risk.
In short:
Direction judgment is your strength; all losses come from "long positions + high leverage + holding positions" and coins like ZEC, TRUMP. If the 6 forced liquidations were replaced by rule-based 80U stop losses, net profit during this period would increase from about 5400U to about 9500U.
The three points most worth sticking to next:
Mainly trade PEPE, DOGE, SOL; avoid ZEC, TRUMP.
Be more cautious with long positions than short ones: use lower leverage and always set stop losses.
No longer use 100x leverage. It mainly brings fees and forced liquidations without extra profit.
By direction and leverage:
Short positions: 37 trades, 95% win rate, net profit 4039, not a single forced liquidation.
Long positions: 39 trades, 72% win rate, net profit only 1388, all 6 forced liquidations were long positions.
100x leverage: 28 trades net profit only 781, with 530 spent on fees.
Within 10x leverage: 10 trades net profit 738, average profit per trade similar to 100x but with almost no risk Brothers, the CPI knife has finally fallen, and both BTC and ETH have taken another hit
$BTC $81,150 | $ETH $2,370
The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations. Bitcoin dropped directly from above 84,000 to around 81,000, Ethereum fell below 2,400, hitting a low of 2,357
This wave of decline is a double whammy of "inflation + leverage." In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $977 million, with long positions liquidated at $895 million, accounting for a high 92%, and 184,000 people were taken out. Ethereum liquidations topped at $293 million, 92% of which were long positions, with the largest single liquidation on Binance BTCUSDT valued at $12.03 million
But there is a key divergence in the capital flow. The Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $175 million on October 13, with Fidelity's FBTC alone accounting for $103 million, ending a streak of outflows. The Ethereum ETF also recorded a net inflow of $24.84 million on the same day, ending 10 consecutive trading days of bleeding. ETF funds actually flowed in during the decline
Technically, 81,000 is a strong support at the 400-day moving average. Analyst JackYi pointed out that Bitcoin quickly rebounds every time it touches 81,000 on a pullback, with 84,000 as the resistance at the 20-day moving average. After Ethereum fell below 2,400, 2,300 is the next line of defense
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 There are new reports of outflows from BTC spot ETFs again, but this time I want to first check if the tables have been fully completed.
Checking Farside on October 14, some products have already reported capital flows, but columns like IBIT are still blank. The table showing a summary number does not mean all products reported on that day. Treating temporary blanks as zero could turn a pending update into a formal conclusion.
The complete record from the previous trading day shows a net inflow of $175.7 million. This also indicates that capital flows are naturally changing, and single-day headlines can easily sway sentiment from one extreme to another. If reporting times differ, comparing incomplete data from the current day with complete data from the previous day can lead to biased judgments.
This is not just data fastidiousness. When the record ranges don’t align, subsequent discussions might just be comparing two sets of numbers with different completion levels.
Has capital really warmed up? At least let’s make sure the comparison targets are consistent first.
Next, I will wait for all product data from the same trading day to be completed before seeing which funds the net outflows concentrate in and whether they have expanded. Blanks are just missing information; they can neither prove buyers for the bulls nor prove no takers for the bears. When the market is tense, everyone wants answers immediately, and I understand that. But taking a few seconds to confirm the statistical scope is less troublesome than explaining “a sudden shift in institutional sentiment” the next day with revised numbers.
#BTC spot ETF net outflows again, can institutional buying recover? To be honest, holding this short position until now, my biggest feeling isn’t satisfaction, but fear.
I initially shorted at 1405. On the day $ZEC rebounded to 1384, I stared at the screen with my hand hovering over the close position button for a long time. Every time the unrealized loss number on the screen ticked, my heart trembled. All the talk about trends, logic, and technicals was completely washed away by emotion at that moment.
So close. I really was just a hair away from clicking.
What stopped me wasn’t discipline. It was that I scrolled through the community and saw the whole screen shouting “halving,” “upgrade,” “privacy narrative taking off.” I’ve seen that kind of uniform excitement too many times. Whenever everyone shouts in the same direction, that’s usually the most dangerous time. The crypto market has never been comfortable for the majority, and that’s almost a rule.
What happened next everyone saw. $ZEC crashed from 1285 down to 1088, a 24-hour drop of over 13%, with trading volume swelling to 272 million USDT, and the moving averages fully confirming a bearish setup. ETH fell from 2800 to 2363, ETFs saw net outflows for 10 consecutive days, with BlackRock and Grayscale pulling money out together. CAP dropped from 0.099 to 0.076.
All three shorts are green now. $ETH unrealized profit 120%, $ZEC unrealized profit 225%, CAP unrealized profit 44%.
But I can’t feel happy.
Because I know those who chased $ZEC at 1285, those who bought $ETH at 2800, and those who jumped into CAP at 0.099, their accounts are probably wrecked now. These people aren’t dumb or ignoring the market; it’s just that when everyone is shouting “buy,” it’s hard to believe what you’re seeing is actually a tightening noose.
Don’t ask me when to take profit. I only know none of these issues are resolved yet:
ETFs are still seeing outflows. Since October, the combined net outflow of US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has nearly reached 1 billion USD, with Ethereum ETFs seeing net outflows for 8 consecutive days.
The decision on the NU7 upgrade won’t be made until October 20. The testnet is running, but whether the mainnet can launch as planned on November 5 is still unknown. This means the biggest narrative catalyst hanging over $ZEC is still up in the air.
What are the whales doing? On one side, institutions are liquidating 172,500 $ETH to cash out 124 million USD and then turning to buy UNI. On the other side, a whale is shorting $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, and $DOGE simultaneously on Aster DEX with 20x leverage, and all short positions are currently profitable. What smart money is doing is completely opposite to what retail is shouting.
Altcoins are collapsing. $XRP derivatives market saw over 610 million USD in long liquidations in a single day, setting a record. Even more extreme, a whale or institution holding 352 million USD in longs has 79,260 ETH longs with liquidation prices between 2290 and 2301 USD, just 60 USD away from the current price—liquidation could happen anytime.
None of these issues are resolved. I’m not leaving until these variables become clear.
Believe it or not, it’s up to you. But if you’re still hesitating about bottom-fishing now, don’t ask yourself how much you can earn first; ask yourself one question:
Are you bottom-fishing, or are you fueling someone else’s short?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #美国银行遭重罚，华尔街Q3业绩分化
$BTC Of the $1.367 billion decrease in net profit, $1.2 billion is a fine.
▪️ Q3 revenue $29.958 billion, up 3.2% year-over-year, below the expected $30.58 billion
▪️ Net profit $6.933 billion, down 17% year-over-year, compared to $8.3 billion last year
▪️ Includes $1.2 billion regulatory settlement costs
▪️ Earnings per share $1.08, below the expected $1.10
▪️ Stock dropped over 7% after earnings release, closed down nearly 5%
▪️ Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's stock trading revenue rose 41% year-over-year, BlackRock had a net inflow of $205 billion in the quarter
The divergence is not about how much less it earned, but how much of the "14% less" is one-time.
From $8.3 billion to $6.933 billion, the difference is $1.367 billion, of which $1.2 billion comes from settlement costs—this is a one-off and does not recur, but it sits on the income statement mixed with weak trading business in the same line. Removing the fine, what remains reflects operational changes.
The direction is to wait and see — next quarter's net profit excluding fines needs to return to positive year-over-year growth to be considered a recovery; otherwise, the decline is just masked by the fine.$BLUR This short position is steadily profiting; finding the right spot to short is the key.
I opened a short at 0.01283, current price is 0.01254, floating profit of 6.07%, the direction is firmly controlled.
First, let's look at the latest news: Blur officially announced shutting down the frontend a few days ago, triggering panic selling in the market, and whales are continuously offloading. On-chain data shows large amounts of BLUR are being transferred to exchanges continuously, with selling pressure wave after wave. Although there were intraday rebounds, those were traps; everyone chasing highs got buried at the peak.
Looking at the chart, there is a large sell order of 557.77K at 0.01297 above, and another 519.30K at 0.01296, with selling pressure layered continuously. The buy orders below are sparse and thin as paper. The long-short ratio is 41% longs to 59% shorts, with shorts completely dominating the rhythm.
BLUR has been hammered down from the highs, each rebound weaker than the last, and every rally is a shorting opportunity. I continue holding my short opened at 0.01283, with a stop loss set above 0.0135. On the downside, watch 0.012 first; if it breaks, then 0.011 is next. Find the right position, set your stop loss well, and leave the rest to time.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Short-term recovery, but the bearish tone remains
$BTC and $ETH are still generally bearish, but I don't think there will be a direct, one-way sell-off. It looks more like a weak recovery first, a bull trap, then a drop.
CPI at 3.7%, exceeding expectations. The rate cut trade was doused with cold water, and the risk of rate hikes is back on the table—CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 53.7%. The dollar index rose to 102.7, the 10-year US Treasury yield neared 5.33%, hitting a 24-year high. Williams, Collins, and Goolsbee lined up hawkishly; AI investment overheating is fueling inflation, and the Fed’s "higher for longer" logic is being repriced. The dollar, Treasury yields, and officials’ speeches—any one of these could rewrite the script next.
If there’s a sudden sharp rally under this backdrop, I would take it as a strong bull return signal, but the probability is very low.
$BTC briefly dropped to 80,230 today, just shy of 80,000, then pulled back. Nearly $484 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the past hour, with longs accounting for $464 million. The ETF side was also active: yesterday, $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million, $ETH outflowed $129 million, and BlackRock alone withdrew over $100 million. Interestingly, on-chain whale holdings have climbed to 3.03 million $BTC, with monthly accumulation at the fastest pace since February this year. Institutions are selling, whales are buying; this divergence doesn’t prove who’s right or wrong, but at least it shows someone is betting on the direction.
My average $BTC price is 63,000, accumulated from the last crash from 80,000 down. Friends laugh at me for catching the falling knife, they wait for 50,000; but what I fear is having no position—missing out is worse than a floating loss. This is for spot; contracts have been brutal with sharp spikes, and my buddy got liquidated this morning.
Going forward, I’m only watching: can $BTC hold 80,000, can $ETH hold 2,360. $BTC tested the 80,000 level once today; the real bottom support lies at 78,000 and the ETF holding cost range below. $ETH is weaker, with 10 consecutive days of net ETF outflows totaling $783 million, whales are still moving coins to exchanges, and there’s a large sell wall at 2,382. If broken, the bears continue; if held, there’s still a tug of war.
Hold spot positions patiently, don’t gamble your life on contracts.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ At 20:30 tonight, the US PPI and retail sales data will be released. Last night's CPI data came in at 3.7%, exceeding market expectations. After this data was released, major assets began to decline: Nasdaq futures fell nearly 1%, gold dropped almost 2%, the Japanese stock market plunged over 3,300 points, and the South Korean KOSPI index fell more than 9% at one point, triggering the tenth circuit breaker of the year. Samsung and SK Hynix suffered severe losses. Market panic quickly spread, risk appetite continued to decline, and Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, also came under pressure and moved downward.
The most critical shift is: the market originally bet on "rate hikes ending and cuts next year," but now suddenly realizes that not only are cuts off the table, the probability of a rate hike in October has risen directly, and a December rate hike is almost certain at 95%. From a full-year perspective, there will definitely be another rate hike by the end of this year, whether it happens in October or December.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
High interest rates will persist longer, which is a real pressure on high-volatility assets.
Bitcoin also could not remain unscathed. After breaking below the key 82,000 daily level, it is still oscillating at a low level with a weak rebound. If it fails to rebound back above 82,000, a daily-level correction will begin, with the next target around 78,000.
There is currently no obvious signal of a bottom. Don't rush to bottom-fish or go long. In the short term, maintain a strategy of following the trend with high short positions on rebounds, and holders should control their positions carefully.
$BTC $ZEC ZECUSDT has pulled back to a key area; the switch between bulls and bears depends on stabilization signals.
📌 Since $ZECUSDT broke below 📌1460, the overall trend has been bearish. On October 12, when the closing candle broke below the 4H Vegas channel, I added to my position; at that time, the downtrend line and the 4H Vegas channel formed a suppressive resonance.
📌 Current price: approaching around 📌1060. This is a previous low tested multiple times during rallies. If the price can consolidate here and show stabilization signals, I believe trading long positions nearby offers a favorable risk-reward ratio and would create a strong bullish bias. We need to wait for stabilization signals and enter following the K-line; do not enter rashly just because the price has reached this level.
📌 If the price breaks below 📌1000 and continues to trade below this key level on smaller timeframes, I will cut losses and wait around 📌880–850 for a better entry point. If the trend meets expectations, this could become the low before $ZEC launches an independent rally, but this is still a conditional judgment, not a confirmed conclusion.
Will you follow after stabilization or continue to watch? The above is only my personal opinion. The market is highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously based on your own risk tolerance.Funds are rotating; don't mistake pulses for trumpets. Candlestick charts can disguise themselves, but on-chain net flows reveal the true colors.📊
The market is stratifying:
$ETH has a daily inflow of $180 million, but the weekly net flow is still an outflow of $650 million. There is short-term support, but no mid-term reversal.
$SOL has a daily inflow of $110 million, yet the monthly trend continues to bleed, with buying looking more like a rebound grab.
LINK has a daily inflow of $60 million, but a net outflow of $420 million over the past 30 days. Sentiment is searching for resilience; the long-term gap remains unfilled.
OP has a daily inflow of $90 million, showing local strength, but a strong day does not equal a bullish trend reversal.
Right now, it looks like testing positions, not a full-scale attack. Next, watch three points: whether ETH can sustain continuous capital inflow; whether SOL can end its monthly outflow; and whether strong coins show volume contraction on pullbacks. Only continuous action counts as a reversal; pulses still belong to consolidation.🔍
Which one do you think will break out first?🚀#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 October 15 Cross-Market Observation: CPI Rises, Risk Assets Pull Back in Sync
The strengthening of the US dollar alongside the weakening of cryptocurrencies is the direct cross-market phenomenon following the release of this inflation data. The US September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, exceeding expectations, with core inflation also surpassing forecasts; energy prices drove the overall increase, but widespread rises in housing and service prices indicate inflationary pressure is spreading. The market has raised the probability of a rate hike, funds tend to reduce risk exposure, the dollar gains buying support, and crypto assets fall along with risk assets. The two move in the same direction but this does not imply a fixed causal relationship.
BTC fell below $81,000, down 2.85% intraday, ETH declined even more, the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a new phase low, and long positions were liquidated en masse. This linkage depends on the market continuously pricing in rate hike expectations.
Once subsequent inflation data cools significantly and US bond yields continue to decline, this cross-asset linkage logic will fail.
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$ETH $BTC $SOL 现在更像是洗筹和博弈交错的阶段，不是追涨窗口。 一个在SOL上亏掉七万的人，为什么反而让我更谨慎看多？ 刷到一篇很戳我的自述。作者说前阵子找了份日结工作，攒下的钱又在SOL里爆了仓，累计亏了七万。父母早逝，没有家底，进圈一年，认知和执行力都还在补课，最后一句是"我继续去打工了"。$SOL $BTC $ZEC 我盯着这段看了很久，第一反应不是同情，是警觉：这种故事密集出现的时候，通常意味着杠杆端已经被清过一轮，但还没到情绪彻底投降的位置。 从衍生品结构看，这才是关键。SOL这类高beta资产的爆仓，往往不是孤立事件。它背后是永续合约的未平仓量在松动、资金费率从正转平甚至转负、多头被迫交出筹码。价格跌不可怕，可怕的是仓位结构被强行重排。当散户的止损和强平被扫掉，剩下的盘子反而更轻，这是偏多的那一面。 但反过来看，轻仓不等于要涨。如果爆仓之后资金费率迟迟不回到健康区间，未平仓量继续阴跌，说明不是换手，是离场。山寨的反弹会变得很短，BTC和ETH吸走注意力，SOL只能在区间里被反复消耗。这种时候追进去，等于替别人测试上方抛压。 我自己的理解是，市场现在交易的不是"利空出尽"，而是"谁还有子弹"Bitcoin stabilized near $81,000 after successfully absorbing two separate retests of the $80,000 baseline. Downward pressure was driven by broader equity weakness, with the KOSPI down 7.57% and Nikkei shedding 4.9% on rising tech credit costs. Despite US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $150.5M in net outflows on October 14, two-day net flows remain positive at $25.2M as CME rate hike expectations ease to 26%.
(DYOR). $BTC
#USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
Last night, the CPI already released inflation bearish news; tonight's PPI is just supplementary data with limited impact. Last night, the core CPI month-over-month recorded +0.3%, which raised the probability of a rate hike at the October 28 FOMC from 17% to 35%; if tonight's core PPI month-over-month again records +0.3% or even +0.4%, institutions will comprehensively revise upward the September core PCE forecast, further strengthening tightening expectations.
Tonight's forecast: stagflation consensus, a rally first then a drop.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
chatgpt's analysis of Tesla's latest earnings report#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
- Q3 net profit of 763.1 billion TWD, up 68.7% year-on-year, revenue also exceeded expectations, with profits hitting new highs for six consecutive quarters
- Simply put: AI computing power orders are the baseline, high-performance computing directly accounts for 68% of total revenue, 2nm process is starting to ramp up, CoWoS packaging is still in the queue, customers are scrambling fiercely for capacity
- Also provided a strong Q4 guidance and raised the full-year revenue growth forecast, management stated AI demand is far from peaking
But there are two points that shouldn’t be just hyped:
- The ramp-up of 2nm and high costs of overseas fabs put slight pressure on gross margin, it’s not a blind upward surge
- 79% of revenue comes from 7nm and below advanced processes, meaning it’s highly tied to the AI cycle; once major players cut capital expenditures, volatility won’t be small
From the blockchain and macro perspective:
The strong semiconductor market indicates that institutions still believe in the long-term AI narrative; but in the short term, it doesn’t mean BTC or AI tokens will just surge blindly — the market is still pressured by CPI and interest rate hike expectations, and positive news is easily "priced in."
Good earnings ≠ immediate price surge, it only confirms the big picture hasn’t collapsed.
In summary: TSMC’s earnings prove that "AI computing power demand is a real necessity," but in trading, don’t just blindly rush on the good news; watch the upcoming earnings calls for any new signals on "capacity, price hikes, capital expenditures" before setting the pace.