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Tesla $TSLA Q3 earnings report is about to be unveiled, with a focus on profits and AI!
Tesla will release its Q3 2026 earnings after the US market closes on October 21. Previously announced deliveries were about 486,500 vehicles, exceeding market expectations but still down year-over-year. Whether the sales rebound can translate into profit growth is the key for this earnings report.
The market expects Q3 revenue of about $27.8 billion and adjusted EPS of about $0.44. Beyond automotive gross margin and free cash flow, I am more focused on the commercialization of Robotaxi, FSD expansion, and the latest progress on the Optimus robot. Although the new generation Roadster brings buzz, long-term valuation ultimately depends on performance delivery.
Tesla today unveiled the new generation Roadster, but production is planned for 2028, so in the short term it is more of a catalyst for brand and technology. What truly determines long-term valuation is the commercialization progress of Robotaxi, FSD expansion, and the implementation capability of the Optimus robot.
My view is that Tesla is no longer just an automaker; AI and autonomous driving are the sources of valuation imagination. However, if automotive profits continue to be pressured and new businesses fail to deliver, the high valuation still faces correction risk.
For this earnings report, are you more optimistic about the automotive business recovery or the long-term value brought by AI and Robotaxi?
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 🐳 BTC has recently been shaking the market and causing anxiety, but there's an interesting set of data — the whales haven't fled; in fact, their numbers are growing.
On October 16, Santiment reported that the number of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC on-chain has reached 20,338, setting a new all-time high. More importantly, this number has been steadily rising since mid-July, even though BTC prices have fluctuated and market sentiment has been volatile. These well-funded players are still gradually increasing.
In simple terms, these people are the players in the crypto space with substantial "assets." When the market rises, they obviously can make money; but what’s truly noteworthy is that they continue to increase even when the market is weak and prices are volatile.
It's a bit like a mall business doing poorly — ordinary people might quickly close shop and run, but wealthy owners take advantage of cheap rent to keep leasing stores and stockpiling goods. 🐳
Of course, this data shouldn't be simply interpreted as "whales bought BTC, so BTC is about to rise." The increase in on-chain wallet numbers could also come from fund splitting, address migration, or institutional position adjustments, so it can't be taken as a standalone buy signal.
But from a market sentiment perspective, it at least indicates one thing: there is currently no sign of large-scale collective capital fleeing BTC.
Especially since the steady growth since mid-July, this combination of "price volatility with an increasing number of whales" is more worth noting than a single large transfer on any given day.一句话：叙事决定资金往哪看，流动性决定资金能走多远，共识决定资金敢留多久。三者缺一，行情走不远。 第一层：叙事——没有故事，资金不敢进场。 加密资产没有现金流，没有市盈率，没有分红。你凭什么给它定价？靠叙事。 比特币是“数字黄金”，以太坊是“世界计算机”，Solana是“高性能公链”，RWA是“把现实资产搬上链”。这些不是技术描述，是叙事。它们把一个复杂的代码协议，压缩成一句你能记住、能转发、能说服别人的话。 叙事的力量有多大？TRUMP代币就是最典型的案例。晚宴消息公布后48小时内，交易量激增300%，220名巨鲸平均持仓成本高达178万美元，价格一度暴涨50%。但晚宴正式开始时，价格已经回落。价格峰值出现在消息扩散期，不是事件落地时。叙事在“预期”阶段完成定价，在“事实”落地时完成收割。 2025年山寨币反弹平均持续时间仅20天，远低于2024年的60天。叙事生命周期在缩短，轮动速度在加快。从DeFi到NFT，从L2到Restaking，从AI Agent到RWA，几乎每个月都有新叙事出现。 第二层：流动性——叙事再好，没钱也涨不动。 叙事负责吸引注意力，流动性负责把注意力变成价格😂 Besides CPI, the September PPI also exploded! Inflation surged 6.3%, can the "soft landing" continue?
Brothers, this time inflation really hit the market hard! $BTC
September US PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year, far exceeding the market expectation of 5.4%; month-on-month it increased 1.3%, the largest rise since March 2022. $ETH
Energy was the biggest driver, commodity prices soared, and gasoline prices surged more than 20% in a single month.
Core PPI also exceeded expectations, indicating that this time it's not just an energy price issue, underlying inflationary pressures are also rising.
But the most interesting thing is: despite such bad data, the market didn't crash!
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq still closed higher, and Bitcoin also rebounded.
Why?
Because the day before, CPI had already washed out the panic selling, and the market had some expectations of the inflation downside. Instead, funds started shifting from overvalued AI and chip sectors to value stocks and small caps.
So there's no need to panic excessively now.
High inflation ≠ the market must fall.
The real variables ahead are oil prices and geopolitical situations. If oil prices fall, inflationary pressure may gradually ease, and the market's rate cut expectations naturally have room to recover.
So my thinking is simple: be cautious in the short term, keep observing in the medium term.
What we fear most now is not bad news, but everyone starting to FOMO when seeing a rebound.
Let the market digest this wave of inflation shock first, and patiently wait for the real reversal opportunity! #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 今天的市场有点意思。 $BTC 还在修复前面的跌幅，很多币也只是跟着喘口气，NEAR却一度冲到5.42美元，24小时涨幅接近10%。这种时候，最容易出现的判断是：AI叙事回来了，山寨行情也要来了。 我觉得还不能这么快下结论。 $NEAR 这轮上涨并不是完全没有基本面支撑。9月29日，Bitwise NEAR ETF正式在NYSE Arca上市，代码NRR。更早之前，NEAR Intents已经把跨链交易、统一流动性和AI代理支付放在同一套叙事里。Bitwise在ETF发布公告中称，Intents累计处理量已超过320亿美元；NEAR官方披露的费用分配机制，也开始把产品使用量与NEAR代币需求联系起来。 这些变化让NEAR不再只是一个“老公链反弹”的故事。ETF提供了传统资金入口，Intents尝试提供真实使用场景，AI则负责给市场想象空间。三件事叠在一起，资金愿意重新给它估值，并不奇怪。 但今天这根上涨，也不能全部算在基本面头上。 NEAR当前约5.20美元，日内波动区间达到4.54至5.42美元。不到一天接近20%的高低振幅，说明资金分歧远比一根阳线看起来更大。与此同时，BTC也从8#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Bullish昨天PPI一出来，第一眼是真的吓人。 美国9月PPI环比直接涨 1.3%，同比 6.3%，不只是高于预期，还是2022年3月以来最大的单月涨幅。能源是主要推手，最终需求能源价格一个月涨了10.8%。 按正常剧本，这种数据对BTC肯定不友好。 BTC也确实先砸了。 一度跌破 8万美元。 但奇怪的地方就在后面——跌破以后并没有继续往下瀑布，两个小时左右又被拉回 8.2万—8.25万美元附近。#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ 【 BTC volume surged with a long wick, 4-hour bottom divergence confirmed! 84000–85000 becomes the next key level 】
Last night’s article mentioned the increasing likelihood of BTC breaking below 80,000. Indeed, after several probes, BTC finally broke through 80,000, dipping to 79,800 before closing with a long wick.
So, does this mean the defense line has been breached and a further collapse is starting? To clarify, when we talk about a breakdown, we usually mean an effective breakdown, which is generally judged by the daily close at major support levels. This kind of wick does not count.
It can be understood that many stop-losses or liquidations clustered around 80,000, and the main force broke through here to remove liquidity below.
Therefore, BTC has returned to the previous consolidation range, with a daily volume surge and wick close, 4-hour bottom divergence confirmed, and the daily MACD near the zero line support. Both indicators and patterns have improved. 【❤️As shown in Figure 1】
Next, it will cycle again. Keep an eye on the 84000 to 85000 range. If it can’t break through, there will be more fluctuations; if it breaks and holds above, it will continue to head for new highs! 【❤️As shown in Figure 2】
Now you understand why we have been emphasizing that the market will be very complex. This kind of consolidation phase is torturous with no compromise; only after choosing a direction will trading become more comfortable.
Continue to watch spot positions with a bias towards holding and less trading; wait for the market to show direction before acting!
Trading idea: Near yesterday’s BTC low, repeatedly reminded that it is only suitable for adding positions, not for cutting losses. Hold your spot positions; currently, spot positions remain heavily weighted 【❤️As shown in Figure 3】
$BTC $ETH The macro line is particularly twisted today.
When Bitcoin dropped below 82,000, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of over 260 million USD in one week, with money being pulled out from the largest pocket. Logically, the outflow should start from Bitcoin, but the XRP ETF fund went the opposite way, showing a net inflow for the week, becoming one of the few channels that didn't bleed in this round.
This is what I want to say: in the same market, the "sell Bitcoin, buy others" switch is often more worth pondering than a full collapse. The funds haven't fled; they're just changing seats. Meanwhile, exchange wallets collected over 80 million XRP in three days — don't rush to see this data as bullish. More inflow to exchanges could mean selling pressure or just custody relocation; we need to watch the direction over the next few days.
XRP itself is currently priced a bit over $1.30, up just over 2% in one day, but still negative over seven days, hovering in the middle range of the past week. Some have already called for this wave to reach $1.30.
My attitude is old-school: wait until the ETF weekly report shows net inflows for two consecutive weeks before commenting. One day's fund flow is just noise; those who gamble on data never end well. This isn't about whether to get on board or not; the cards haven't all been dealt yet. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $XRP #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The profit and market boost brought by AI dramas are still a long way offNetflix (NFLX) 2026 Q3 Earnings Preview
Netflix will release its 2026 Q3 earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 20.
Company Official Guidance
- Revenue: $12.86 billion (YoY +11.7%)
- EPS: $0.82
- Operating Margin: 33.2%
Wall Street Estimates
- Revenue: $13.0 billion
- EPS: $0.84
The company's guidance is generally conservative and below market expectations, leaving room for upside surprises in this earnings report.
Key Positive Drivers
1. High growth in advertising business, with full-year 2026 ad revenue expected to nearly double, and high gross margin characteristics continuing to boost overall profits.
2. Price increases implemented across multiple global regions, raising ARPU and offsetting slower subscriber growth.
3. Solid Q2 base: revenue of $12.56 billion, EPS of $0.80, maintaining strong profitability.
4. High-quality summer content launched in Q3, improving user engagement and retention quarter-over-quarter.
Risks
Intense competition in the streaming industry combined with continued high content amortization costs will suppress margin expansion in the short term.
Market Outlook
The negative factors for this earnings report have been priced in, making it easier to beat than to disappoint. As long as subscriber numbers and margins hold steady, results are likely to outperform the company's conservative guidance, supporting stock price recovery.
Focus on three key metrics: new subscriber additions, advertising business growth, and actual operating margin.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
$NFLX $SOL options are not buying insurance against a drop; this is the reading from the options market on the afternoon of October 16.
On OKX, the implied volatility for at-the-money SOL options expiring on October 18 is 60.7%, which translates to a daily volatility of about 3.2%. The actual daily volatility over the past 30 days is 3.3%, nearly identical. The options are neither charging extra premium nor discounting prices. The delta at the at-the-money strike is 0.52, evenly split between up and down moves, with no side priced in advance.
Looking at strikes on both sides, 100 and 112 are about 5 to 6 points away from the current price. Roughly estimating by delta, the probability of settling below 100 at expiration is about 12%, and above 112 is about 14%. The probability on the downside is 2 points lower than the upside, indicating that a drop is not more feared than a rise.
The volatility skew is slightly higher on the downside: the 100 strike has 70.6% implied volatility, while 112 has 66.4%, a 4-point difference. This is a mild skew; there are buyers of downside protection, but not in a crowded way. In times of real panic, the downside skew would widen significantly.
Therefore, with SOL around 106, the directional bias is slightly bullish, and there is not much money betting on a big drop in the market.
Before the October 18 expiration, if the probability of settling below 100 rises from 12% to above 20%, that would indicate that downside insurance is starting to get expensive. Inflation is rising, but the long end has retreated from this year's highs
Let's first talk about the facts that have already happened. The September CPI will be released this Wednesday (October 14): overall year-on-year 3.74%, previous 3.40%; core year-on-year 2.56%, previous 2.45%; month-on-month +0.59% and +0.37%, both are rising.
Meanwhile, the long end is retreating. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 5.31% on October 5 (the year's high) to 5.10%, and the 30-year fell from 5.67% to 5.43%. On the short end, the effective federal funds rate remains at 3.88%, and the 2-year is at 4.77%—the policy rate range has barely moved.
The key is to look at these two directions together. The short end is decided by the Federal Reserve, the long end by the market—the long end roughly consists of inflation expectations + term premium (extra compensation for lending to the US for a longer time) + real interest rate. Inflation is rising, but the long end is falling, indicating that what is suppressing the long end is not the September inflation itself.
What the market is really debating is another matter: when inflation stays above 3%, can rate cuts continue downward? The 2-year still hangs at 4.77%, and the market is not pricing in a "quick drop on the short end"; meanwhile, the 10-year real yield is 2.78%, and the 30-year is 3.18%, so the real rates after subtracting inflation are not cheap.
My judgment: this round of long-end decline looks more like a correction of the previous rapid rise, not a turning point in the inflation issue. If inflation continues to strengthen but the long end cannot rise, then the cause should be sought in supply and term premium, rather than focusing on a specific item in the CPI.
In terms of trading, the 2.78% real yield is the line suppressing gold and risk assets. The next observation point: the October 27-28 FOMC meeting (statement released at 2:00 AM Beijing time on October 29); then watch how the 10-year behaves around the 5% whole number level.但这波不是它一个人在动。Injective 涨近三成，Celestia 涨两成多，LayerZero、Arbitrum 也都在两位数。清一色是前面被砸得最狠、故事又最好讲的那批。$NEAR $BTC $ETH 所以这轮反弹，我更愿意先当成超跌加情绪修复，而不是基本面突然反转。资金现在挑的不是谁业务变好了，而是谁跌得够深、叙事够性感。NEAR 刚好两样都占，前面跌得多，又一直顶着 AI 公链的标签。 这种行情通常只有两种结局。一种是情绪真到底了，资金开始回流；另一种是流动性最后挣扎一波，涨完继续往下磨。 我更偏后者，但猜顶猜底本来就不靠谱。关键还是看后面有没有扩散：BTC 能不能先稳住，ETH、SOL 这些主流资产有没有跟上，成交量是不是持续放大。如果只涨前期跌幅最大的，那更像补涨，不是山寨季。 如果 NEAR 再涨 10%，我不会直接追。手里有仓位的，拉到前高压力区附近分批减；没仓位的，等回踩不破再小仓位试。这种位置追涨，盈亏比不划算。 站超跌反弹可以，站山寨季还差证据。 #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #奈飞增长或放缓，Kalshi has launched a DOGE perpetual contract regulated by the CFTC in the United States, with a leverage cap set at 3.8x, and it qualifies for tax benefits under Section 1256 of the Tax Code.
3.8x. Just consider that number. Offshore exchanges often offer 50x or 100x leverage, but Kalshi directly pins it down to the ground. On the other hand, if an American wanted to trade DOGE contracts before, they could only go to offshore platforms, with no place to turn to if something went wrong. Now someone has paved this path right to their doorstep, and it's laid with regulatory bricks.
Even more interestingly, starting October 13, Kalshi shut down its VIP large trade reward program. While launching perpetual contracts, it stopped subsidies for big players. What it wants are ordinary people, not those who treat their positions like bullets. $DOGE is currently at 0.082, up 0.6% today, with a 24-hour low touching 0.07791 before bouncing back. Channels are being paved one by one, and with each new channel, more people get access to DOGE.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Netflix's story is shifting from a "subscription growth machine" to a dual-engine model of "stable subscription + high-growth advertising." Although advertising currently accounts for only a single-digit percentage of total revenue, its doubling growth rate and clear expansion path make it the most certain hedge against market anxiety over subscription growth. However, if the fundamental issue of engagement stagnation cannot be improved, the long-term ceiling for advertising business will also be constrained. Netflix needs to find a precise balance between short-term ad monetization and long-term user experience.$HYPE
The market is generally rebounding, but what does it mean that HYPE's gains are relatively small?
Spot price rose about 1.41% in 24 hours, ranging from 77.562 to 82.631, positioned at about 69% within this range; during the same period, ETH rose about 3.71%. HYPE's relative returns in this window are not outstanding.
For derivative platform popularity to translate into token performance, sustainable revenue and clear value transmission are needed. Market activity benefits trading demand but does not guarantee that platform tokens will outperform.
If 82.631 is reclaimed and relative strength improves, a reevaluation can be made; if the overall market continues to strengthen while it lags, capital may be seeking other directions. Losing 77.562 indicates insufficient support in the range and that optimism cannot be maintained by industry hype alone. We talked this morning about why BTC's pullback stopped at 80,000, and the afternoon verification has arrived.
During the session, it actually briefly dropped below 80,000 (around a low of 79,800), but it didn't hold there and quickly pulled back to 82,000, now around 82,300.
What's even more interesting is that the liquidation structure has changed: last night’s $950 million liquidation was 90% long positions; today’s 24-hour liquidation dropped to about $260 million, with longs and shorts almost evenly split. Among today's $73 million ETH liquidations, shorts dominate — this rebound is a short squeeze, not longs holding firm.
Right now, there’s just one line blocking above: the average cost of holdings in the US spot ETF, about $82,300. Before reclaiming this line, ETF capital is unlikely to truly improve. Before the FOMC at the end of October, it will most likely grind between 80,000 and 83,000.
Do you think this cost line is a resistance level or a launchpad for institutional accumulation?
#BTC #Web3BTC pulled back from 79,775 to 82,000, ETH reclaimed 2,400: This rebound doesn't look like just short covering
BTC spot pulled back from 79,775 to 82,091, and ETH also rebounded from 2,324 to 2,442. The price recovered quickly, but don't rush to credit the spot buying entirely.
About $940 million worth of positions were liquidated in this drop, 92% of which were longs. Normally, after leverage is flushed out, open interest (OI) should drop significantly; however, the overall market data shows little change in OI after liquidation, with OKX's BTC perpetual OI still around $2.45 billion. This indicates that after old longs were taken out, new positions came in, so this is not a clean deleveraging rebound.
If it were just shorts taking profits, OI should continue to decline as prices rise; if spot buying was supporting, spot volume must increase synchronously when BTC breaks 82,643 and ETH breaks 2,468. Neither condition is fully confirmed now, so I lean towards a mixed recovery of "real buying support + leverage re-entry."
Therefore, I am not chasing. Wait for BTC to hold above 82,643 and ETH to surpass 2,468, then watch for a pullback; if BTC falls back below 81,800 and ETH below 2,400 while OI remains high, these new longs could become fuel for the next round of sell-off.
$BTC $ETH #OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 How severe is this round of pullback in the US stock market? A review of the declines in 14 popular stocks
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
Ranked by pullback from largest to smallest: SOXL down 39.48%, AAOI 36.93%, NBIS 30.01%, SNDK 29.48%, INTC 25.46%, BE 24.75%, MU 20.79%, MRVL 20.50%; followed by ORCL, SPCX, TQQQ, VST, NVDA, AVGO.
An interesting divergence can be seen: AI leaders are relatively resilient, with NVDA and AVGO pulling back only about 11%; but MRVL, also part of the AI industry chain, dropped over 20%, and optical communication AAOI nearly 37%. The memory sector was also hit hard, with MU and SNDK pulling back 20.79% and 29.48% respectively. After huge gains earlier, the market is re-pricing their future earnings expectations.
In my view, although many high-volatility stocks have already deeply pulled back, a larger drop does not equal a bigger rebound; you cannot simply bet on a reversal based on the decline alone. There are two main lines to watch going forward: first, whether orders and earnings guidance in the memory, optical communication, and AI infrastructure sectors can still be revised upward during this earnings season; second, who can lead the rebound by increasing volume and breaking above key moving averages first, and who continues to hit new lows in stages. If earnings expectations remain upward, those stocks that have pulled back 20-30% have a risk-reward ratio worth re-evaluating. The threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin has been debated for many years, but the real difficulty is not in the technology.
An old player in the community said something many don't want to hear: even if quantum computing could truly threaten Bitcoin within two years, it's almost impossible for Bitcoin to complete a full network upgrade within that time.
The reason is clear. The last SegWit upgrade took the community two whole years of debate, and the result was not a completed upgrade but a fork, creating a new sibling $BCH out of thin air. The later Taproot upgrade, considered smooth, still took 3 years.
So the key point is this: the slowest part of Bitcoin is not the code, but consensus. The slowness of upgrades is not something to wait for quantum computers to see; it has played out several times over the past decade.
Do you think this is alarmist, or a real hidden risk?
$BTCBCH's recent performance has been quite impressive, with volume surging intraday and approaching highs. This established PoW asset has once again attracted capital attention. The logic behind BCH is not complicated: when BTC stabilizes and the market starts to explore catch-up opportunities, BCH, which has high recognizability and a relatively independent trading community, is often easily pulled out. The current rally is mainly driven by capital, and the coordination of volume and price is a positive signal, but volatility may increase after continuous rises. Going forward, it depends on whether BTC can maintain stability and whether BCH's own trading volume can sustain; otherwise, it may easily enter a phase of high-level consolidation. $BCH After rebounding from around 80k, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating near 82k. The overall market recovery is not yet complete, but funds have already started selectively replenishing previously strong assets. Today is not a full altcoin season, but rather a clearly differentiated market. Currently, several directions stand out: $INJ is around 9.1-9.25, with a 24-hour increase of about 25%-28%, making it one of the strongest today. The catalysts are concentrated: the CEO recently met with the White House, SEC, and CFTC to advance tokenization and compliance matters; the fixed gas fee proposal is also progressing; the Canary staking ETF is making progress; meanwhile, income/valuation metrics are attracting market attention. Technically, it has also broken through, combined with altcoin capital rotation, showing considerable elasticity. $ZRO is around 2.25-2.27, with a 21%-25% increase. It is in the cross-chain infrastructure sector, with progress mentioned in Global Dollar Network and others; funds prefer the interoperability track. $TIA is around 0.62-0.66, with a 19%-25% increase. It follows the modular + data availability narrative, with funds returning after earlier adjustments. $NEAR is around 5.2, with a 10%-12% increase. The Bitwise spot ETF (NRR) has launched and attracted inflows; chain abstraction, cross-chain Intents, and AI agents are the main narratives; elasticity remains good after improved institutional accessibility. $ZEC is around 1220-1230, with a 9%-13% increase. It represents the privacy sector, Grayscale Zcash.In a neglected corner,
$FIL has been rising continuously, this daily chart,
Positive factors:
1/ Token release ended, supply growth rate sharply declined: The 6-year release period set by Protocol Labs and Filecoin Foundation at genesis ended around October 15.
2/ Solstice network upgrade planned for October 19: An increasing share of block rewards will be allocated to services that bring paying customers, and unearned service reward shares will be burned instead of being redistributed.
3/ Integral Spacetime: Newly launched storage Neocloud this week brings in a large number of paying customers at once by acquiring enterprises with massive storage needs and migrating their data to Filecoin.
4/ Fil One: Officially available, providing high-performance, S3-compatible object storage at prices far lower than traditional cloud providers, with no egress fees on paid plans, targeting enterprise IT and AI infrastructure.
Could this be a second spring? But seeing the weekly chart really makes me want to laugh 10月16日，第一财经报道，2026年总额1.3万亿元的超长期特别国债发行收官。这个数字容易让人联想到企业接到订单、工厂更换设备、家庭领到补贴。但从国家借到钱，到这些事情真正发生，中间还有一条需要走完的路径。 最值得追问的是：这笔融资，要经过哪些环节，才会变成企业收入和家庭实际享受的补贴？ 发完债，完成的是哪一步？ 财政部2026年预算报告早已安排，继续发行超长期特别国债13000亿元。因此，10月16日的“收官”，意味着年度计划的分批发行走到终点，不能理解为当天突然追加了1.3万亿元财政支出。 最后一轮发行安排就能说明时点的差别。财政部通知安排10月16日上午续发行200亿元20年期国债，承销团缴款截止日是10月19日。招标发行与缴款本身就有先后，更不能把发行日直接当成资金已经支付给企业、家庭的日期。 把传导过程展开，通常要经过几个环节：政府发行债券筹资，财政按预算安排资金，相关部门和地方组织执行，再通过项目付款、设备采购支持或消费补贴兑付，进入企业和家庭的收支。 这些环节也并非等全年债券全部发完才一起启动。国家发改委9月30日公告称，第四批625亿元资金下达后，全年2500亿元消费#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The growth narrative of Netflix's advertising business holds, but in the short term, further improvement in profitability faces a trade-off between "growth and margin." The large-scale monetization of advertising revenue is the key variable to unlocking profit space.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Tesla TSLA (Q3): Deliveries exceeded expectations, but earnings/gross margin are unlikely to surpass consensus estimates, as Wall Street's expectations are generally set very high. The probability of slightly beating expectations is low, with a high likelihood of meeting or slightly missing earnings forecasts.
1. Known leading data: Q3 electric vehicle deliveries reached 486,500 units, significantly above the market's prior consensus of 462,000 (+5%). This delivery figure has already materialized as a positive factor.
- Highlights: Energy storage installations at 13.7 GWh, maintaining steady growth; inventory reduction and a rebound in European demand; continued growth in FSD subscriptions.
- Biggest constraint: Automotive gross margin. Intense industry competition, ongoing price cuts and promotions, raw material and factory operating costs, plus continued large capital investments in AI/Dojo and robotics, are squeezing profits. Many institutions believe deliveries look good, but per-vehicle profits are under pressure.
2. Expectation breakdown:
- Revenue: Most likely slightly above expectations (due to higher deliveries)
- Adjusted EPS and gross margin: The core items most likely to miss expectations and the focus of market contention#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The "pipeline" for the GENIUS bill has started to be laid out, small stablecoins rejoice, big stablecoins worry
The Federal Reserve on 9/24 released two sets of proposed rules (NPRM): issuers must have 1:1 high-quality reserves (U.S. Treasuries/cash), rehypothecation is prohibited, and capital requirements are set according to business models; bank subsidiaries have a 120-day fast-track approval.
The Treasury Department's temporary rule on 9/30 drew a $10 billion red line—issuers with issuance exceeding $10 billion (Tether, Circle) are directly blocked from the "state channel" and must follow the federal framework. The comment deadlines for the Treasury and SEC are 10/19 and 10/20, respectively.
Stablecoins will become "bank-level liabilities," allowing small players to enter while giants are absorbed.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Meta's Q3 report will test whether AI spending is being matched by the earnings engine behind it. Q2 revenue rose 28% year on year to $60.8B while capex reached about $31.1B; Q3 guidance of $61B-$64B keeps the growth case intact, but investors still need evidence that advertising can absorb a rising investment burden.
#MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook $NFLX will release its earnings report after the market closes on October 20. I bet its data can beat expectations, but the stock price may not necessarily respond positively, and this is also related to the crypto space.
The market expects revenue of 12.87 billion, EPS around 0.82, the company guidance is 12.86 billion, operating margin 33.2%. The expectations are very close, so it’s not the kind of situation where a slight beat will cause a big surge.
Why do I think it can beat? The core is advertising. The 2026 advertising revenue target is 3 billion, double last year, with over 4,000 advertisers, a year-on-year growth of 70%. This is currently the fastest-growing business. But last quarter, advertising revenue was about 618 million, below expectations. A loud full-year target doesn’t mean every quarter will beat, so quarterly growth is more important than the full-year target.
A lesson from the past: Q2 earnings in July had an EPS of 0.80, slightly beating, but revenue was 12.56 billion, slightly lower. Q3 guidance of 12.86 billion was below the expected 13 billion, and the stock dropped more than 8% after hours. The stock price has fallen about 24% this year, with a 52-week low of 65, now just above 70.
For the crypto space, Netflix is a Nasdaq heavyweight. If it falls sharply after the earnings report, tech stock sentiment will be hit, the Nasdaq pressured, and BTC and the crypto AI sector usually get shaken out as well. Conversely, if the guidance is strong, tech stocks rebound, and crypto can catch a breather.
My judgment: Q3 data will most likely beat, but whether it rises depends on the earnings call guidance for Q4 and next year’s advertising revenue. I will closely watch the Nasdaq and BTC linkage after the earnings report. If the AI sector is unfairly punished, I will consider whether to jump in.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $DOGE is slightly bullish. The current price of 0.08223 is already close to the intraday high, next we will see if it can hold above 0.0826. Today it dropped first then pulled back. The intraday low reached 0.07786, with significantly more long positions liquidated than shorts; the sharp drop mainly cleared leveraged longs chasing the rally. The price only rebounded after this batch of leverage was cleared, and the driving force behind this rebound seems more like spot and light-position funds, making the market cleaner than in the morning session. The trading volume is clearly higher than open interest, indicating sufficient turnover and rapid chip rotation, with leverage not increasing. On the chart, the 7/25/99 moving averages are still in a bearish alignment, reflecting the previous trend since moving averages lag. The real level to break is the descending trendline, which is currently being tested with volume on the rise; during pullbacks volume shrinks quickly, indicating light selling pressure. The condition to turn bearish again: a drop back below 0.07786, which would indicate no buyers after the washout and invalidate the bullish view. Netflix's Q3 is very likely to follow the old script of impressive numbers but the stock price not responding. It just reported 12.56 billion and a net profit of 3.4 billion in Q2, already putting concerns about growth peaking on the table.
Will growth slow down? Yes, and it's not a question but a certainty. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
1. The scale is too large. With 325 million paid subscribers, further growth is tough; future hopes rest on emerging markets and new price hikes.
2. The bonus from free riders converting to paid accounts has basically been exhausted.
3. Spending is more aggressive: content expenses hit 20 billion, and the operating margin guidance of 31.5% is actually lower than market expectations.
But Netflix is smart in shifting its growth engine from adding subscribers to advertising:
Advertising is the real story. The ad tier had over 250 million monthly active viewers in May, with more than 60% of new sign-ups choosing the ad-supported tier, and CPM is 41% higher than traditional streaming.
Advertisers have also surpassed 4,000, up 70% year-over-year. Ad revenue is about $1.5 billion in 2025, expected to double to $3 billion in 2026, and ambitiously reach $9 billion by 2030. Currently, ads only account for 8% of total revenue, leaving significant growth potential.
Netflix $NFLX is still worth holding, just transitioning from a high-growth stock to a cash cow. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Term Structure Radar
The scale of the first positive spread for $ETH is very small. The near-buy and far-sell quote spread is +0.57%, with the first pair scale around $994; at a scale of 10,000, this only covers about 10%. Small orders can probe, but for large volume, deeper levels must be observed. Solana 目前是应用收入最高的公链。 过去 30 天内，其应用收入达 1.931 亿美元，几乎是紧随其后的对手 Hyperliquid（8650 万美元）的两倍，以太坊（5380 万美元）、Robinhood 链（3460 万美元）分列其后。 这一领先优势来源于消费类应用，该类应用贡献了约 80% 的应用收入，包含Launchpad、交易终端、数字藏品等产品。剩余收入来自去中心化交易所、借贷以及其他 DeFi 协议。 这种收入结构一直饱受争议：其收入本质上来自投机性Meme币的交易抽成，而Meme币行情完全由叙事热点驱动。市场普遍观点认为，一旦热度消退，交易量与手续费收入也会随之流失。为验证该判断是否适用于 Solana，本报告评估了消费类应用收入的可持续性。 报告接着研究消费应用层之外的生态建设，覆盖 Solana 上各个赛道并分析其增长态势，其中包括借贷、去中心化交易所，以及最重要的现实世界资产（RWA）—— 该赛道过去一年在 Solana 上实现高速增长。 Solana消费类应用已经达成的高速度 Solana 是一条高吞吐量公链，能够让链上操作实现高速、低成本且流畅的体验，这#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Core Judgments
- Revenue/Profit Still Growing but Growth Rate Slowing: Revenue around $45.2 billion in 2025 (+16%), net profit about $11 billion (+26%); 2026 revenue guidance $51–51.4 billion (+13%–14%).
- Users and Viewing Time: Paid members exceed 325 million, total viewing time about 97 billion hours in the first half of 2026 (YoY +2%).
- Management Acknowledges: Co-CEO states "growth speed below expectations," efforts underway to accelerate.
Reasons for Slowdown
- Intensified Competition: YouTube/TikTok diverting viewing time, U.S. streaming accounts for about 49% of TV viewing, YouTube about 14.2%, Netflix about 7.8%.
- Content and Cycle: Hit show rhythm fluctuates, investment efficiency under scrutiny; subscriber decline and layoffs occurred in 2022.
- Penetration and Price Increases: Global penetration approaching saturation, the new user effect from price hikes and cracking down on password sharing weakens .$SNDK perpetual 75x short position, opened at 1414.1, now at 1381.4, floating profit +173.43%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that chips are ready to be distributed. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 1414.1, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 75x leverage, stop loss at 1450. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 1400 to let profits run. If 1350 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it can't fall further, exit completely. $BTC $ETH #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 My take on Earning Season 📈
$NVDA pre-market at $224.08 (-0.99%) - watching 224.00 support level for today's open. Bid side strong at 89.4% showing buyer interest.
Holding my short term position for earnings volatility. 🎬 **Netflix Earnings: The $0.84 Line!**
The key question is whether Netflix can beat $0.84 in GAAP EPS. At exactly $0.84, NO wins; YES requires EPS above $0.84.
With guidance near $0.82, the result could be close. Ad growth and cost control may change the outcome.
#Netflix #EarningsSeason #PredictionMarkets "After BTC's fake drop, next week is the real judgment day (｡•́︿•̀｡)"
In 24 hours, 320,000 accounts were liquidated, $932 million evaporated, with bulls contributing $796 million — the bottom-fishers got carried away first (╥﹏╥). $BTC is currently around 82,000, having fallen below 80,000 in the morning only to be pulled back by shorts covering; it looks like a V-shaped rebound but is actually a "fake drop."
The key zone is 80,000-81,500: the average cost area for ETFs. If the daily close fails to hold this range, ETF holders will collectively turn to losses, potentially triggering a chain reaction of stop-loss orders (;´Д`).
$ETH: 2,500 is hanging by a thread, 2,650 has shifted from support to resistance, ETFs continue to bleed, and the rebound looks more like an escape window rather than a reversal (｡•́︿•̀｡).
$SOL: struggling near 102, with the 50-day EMA at 107 pressing down; breaking below 99, 96 is beckoning (ﾟДﾟ;).
Next week, watch these three levels:
BTC 80,000 close;
ETH 2,500;
SOL 99.
Before the FOMC, don’t use leverage to bet on direction; betting wrong is a "zeroing experience card" (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻. The market has risks; staying alive means there’s a next round. (・ω・)ノ
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Just woke up and saw "Tesla taking off," clicked to see the car really took off
It's lively as always, and for OKX Prophet S3, this time I changed my vote to YES: Q3 EPS will exceed expectations.
Deliveries reached 486,500 vehicles, about 5% higher than market consensus. Although it's down 2% year-over-year, it is improving quarter-over-quarter, and the European market is also warming up.
The most critical part is energy storage. 13.7 GWh is indeed below market expectations, but UBS estimates the impact on EPS is only $0.03, so the gap isn't as big as imagined. Although the gross margin for energy storage dropped from 39.5% in Q1 to 20.4% in Q2, it still exceeds the automotive business's 16.3%, remaining Tesla's most profitable segment.
It's true that automotive gross margin is under pressure, but deliveries exceeding expectations themselves dilute the cost per vehicle. Plus, with FSD gradually approved in Europe and subscription users nearing 1.3 million, software revenue could bring additional surprises.
Capital expenditure is indeed large, exceeding $25 billion for the full year, and free cash flow has turned negative, but these are long-term investments and don't necessarily mean the quarterly EPS will miss expectations.
Market sentiment is already very low; both JPMorgan and UBS have given neutral ratings, so expectations aren't high. Under these circumstances, as long as the automotive gross margin doesn't continue to deteriorate or the energy storage profit contribution improves slightly, it could deliver a surprise.
So this time, I'm betting YES. 现在更像博弈和洗筹，不是无脑追涨的阶段。 你看到那种"多空混着拿"的账户，会先想到机会还是风险？ 我盯着一个很有意思的衍生品组合：同一账户里，BTC 空单在赚钱，ETH 多单在亏，HYPE 空单亏得最重。这不是普通散户的对冲，更像是在用不同板块表达不同判断。 数据快照，先看清楚结构： - BTC 空单 40 倍全仓，浮盈约 56.87 万 U，资金费也是正的 6.41 万 U，爆仓价在 104380 附近，离现价还有距离。 - ETH 多单 25 倍全仓，浮亏约 92.27 万 U，资金费倒扣 1.89 万 U，爆仓价 1623.5，缓冲不算薄但也不厚。 - HYPE 空单 5 倍全仓，浮亏约 390.94 万 U，但资金费收了 104.2 万 U，爆仓价 99.76，这个位置已经贴得很近了。 先看动能信号。BTC 空头在盈利，说明市场对反弹的持续性还在怀疑，至少衍生品这边没有全面转多。资金费为正，代表空头愿意付钱持有，这种结构往往出现在"价格反弹但情绪没跟上"的阶段。ETH 多单亏钱，但杠杆倍数低一些，保证金也够，暂时不是被迫离场的状态。 再看风险信号。HYPE 空单是整组里最脆弱的🏅 OKX Prophet Season 3｜Superforecasting Experiment #001
Is Tesla Q3 non-GAAP EPS > $0.43?
⭐ Market odds: Yes 72¢ / No 30¢
🎯 My judgment: Yes 58% / No 42%
So I’m buying No on this one.
Continuing to use the "Superforecasting" method I practiced in the OKX AI trading competition:
First, look at the Base Rate.
Tesla’s last 8 earnings EPS: 4 beats, 4 misses, prior probability 50%.
Then update with new information:
🌟 Consensus estimate about $0.453, higher than $0.43 → positive for Yes
🚗 Q3 deliveries 486,532 units, about 5.3% above expectations → slightly positive
⚡ Energy storage 13.7 GWh, about 13.8% below expectations → negative adjustment
After combining:
Yes 58% / No 42%
But the market odds give No only 30¢:
✨ Edge(No) = 42% - 30% = +12%
So even though I still think Yes is more likely, based on the odds, No is the better buy. In 2014, the bottom was reached 71 days after the election, with a drop of -46.7%.
In 2018, the bottom was reached 39 days after the election, with a drop of -50.6%.
In 2022, the bottom was reached 1 day after the election, with a drop of -14.9%.
After every midterm election, Bitcoin prices hit new lows, creating a golden pit.
What will happen in 2026?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Analyze Intel $INTC #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
SanDisk's storage business has short-term sustainability in its high growth, but faces challenges of slowing price increase momentum in the mid-term.
The niche supporting this continuation lies in data center demand driven by the AI wave and the undersupply of NAND flash memory. Its fiscal year 2026 revenue surged by 175%, with a gross margin exceeding 84%, and management indicated that the memory allocation system will continue until 2027. Through long-term contracts (NBM) targeting major customers, a certain level of revenue visibility can be ensured.
However, the high growth faces two major variables: first, a significant portion of the rapid revenue growth comes from "product price increases." As the price hikes gradually narrow, the marginal benefit purely from price increases will diminish; second, the recovery of peer production capacity and the entry of competitors (such as Chinese manufacturers entering the NAND market) will potentially pressure mid-term pricing and gross margins.Upbit will delist ZIL, effective in one month
But the actual delisting has already happened today
Korean retail investors won't wait until the last day to leave
Market makers also won't keep placing orders in a market that's almost empty
Once the announcement came out, the buy orders there started to thin out
So don't treat the effective date as the event itself
That day is more like closing time for $ZIL If stablecoins are increasingly used for payments, their value goes beyond just crypto trading.
This data set states that stablecoin payment volume grew by 45%, reaching $482 billion, reflecting rising market attention to on-chain settlement and cross-border transfers. However, stablecoin transfer volume is not the same as real commercial payments; statistical scope, exchange fund flows, and on-chain repeated transfers all affect the numbers.
What do you think is the biggest growth point for stablecoins in the future: cross-border payments or continuing to serve as trading funds in the crypto market?
$USDT #StablecoinPaymentGrowth45%to$482B