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$BTC $ETH $SOL
Multiple pre-market news in the US stock market collectively signal that institutions are beginning to reduce equity risk and shift towards bond hedging, which will directly impact the crypto market.
In the crypto space, the correlation between BTC and Nasdaq has already rebounded. The risk appetite in the US stock market will directly affect the crypto market. Institutions reducing US stock holdings and increasing US bond allocations means risk capital is contracting, which will continue to suppress BTC and ETH. Yesterday, spot ETFs continued to see outflows, resonating with the risk-off sentiment in the US stock market.
If the US stock market opens weaker, the crypto market will simultaneously come under pressure; if the US stock market stabilizes and oscillates, the crypto space will maintain range-bound trading. Currently, with overall capital seeking safety, altcoins are facing greater volatility pressure.
BlackRock's moves are the most representative: it downgraded US stocks to neutral while increasing US bond allocations, ending a six-year underweight stance on US bonds. This reflects the current judgment of leading institutions that the cost-effectiveness of the stock market is declining, capital is prioritizing bond hedging, and willingness to allocate to risk assets is shrinking.
Bank earnings reports show divergence: JPMorgan's revenue missed expectations, with FICC business income below estimates; Goldman Sachs' equity trading business exceeded expectations, but fixed income business was weak; Citigroup slightly met targets. Big banks' earnings falling short of expectations will heighten market concerns about the economy.
Regarding memory chips, Morgan Stanley warns that the semiconductor cycle is nearing its peak, with high profitability posing a valuation trap, and expectations for tech stocks are beginning to ease.#渣打银行为Ripple旗下RLUSD提供托管服务
$XRP Banks custodize stablecoins, collateral doesn't need to move.
▪️ Standard Chartered provides institutional custody for RLUSD through its Dubai International Financial Centre branch, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority
▪️ Supports RLUSD running on its native XRP Ledger
▪️ Plans to extend the "collateral mirroring" model to LMAX, allowing clients to use RLUSD as trading collateral
▪️ In the mirroring model, tokens remain in bank custody, and LMAX can confirm position value without client transfers
▪️ Standard Chartered says this model can reduce transfer risk and counterparty exposure; functionality still requires documentation, testing, and regulatory approval
The disagreement isn't whether banks are willing to custody stablecoins, but which step is saved by the "collateral doesn't leave custody" design.
Previously, to use stablecoins as collateral, the coins had to be transferred to the counterparty, and the transfer process itself was an exposure. The mirroring model lets the bank issue confirmation, and the counterparty recognizes the value, so the coins don't move, reducing risk exposure. Whether this process can be implemented depends on whether banks are willing to take responsibility for a "confirmation"—Standard Chartered has listed it as a pending approval item, indicating it is also waiting for conditions to be met.
The direction is for observers — collateral functionality approval and implementation marks a new stage; stopping at custody just adds another custodian.#Strategy's accumulation slows down, is the corporate treasury strategy changing?
Strategy's approach has shifted a bit; it used to buy coins blindly, but now it's starting to be more cautious.
Let's look at the data. From October 5th to 11th, during that week, Strategy only bought 250 BTC, spending less than 20 million USD. But in the same period, it spent 192 million USD to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares. Do the math: the buyback amount is 9 times the amount spent on buying coins. The man who used to "raise funds just to buy coins" is now using most of the money to fix the capital structure.
Looking at the bigger picture, SoSoValue statistics show that the net weekly BTC purchases by listed companies dropped by 90.6% week-over-week. This is not just Strategy's issue; the entire corporate treasury buying pace is collectively slowing down. On the other hand, BitMine still holds 6.03 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the total supply, with 84% of that staked, gradually locking up.
What impact does this have?
First, short-term buying pressure is definitely reduced.
Second, just because treasury players are not buying doesn't mean they are selling.
My view is simple.
Don't panic just because accumulation is slowing. Strategy is now spending 9 times more on repurchasing preferred shares, which is building a firewall for itself—stabilizing the capital structure first, then planning for future coin purchases. This is not a signal that the market will fall; treasury players are switching from "charging aggressively" to "holding steady."
What do you think? $BTC $SOL is bearish, with long positions liquidated for $25.11 million in the past 24 hours, while short positions only liquidated $8.48 million. The number of long trades is about half that of shorts, but the amount is much larger, indicating that large long positions were liquidated, whereas shorts are mostly small trades. The funding rate has dropped for three consecutive periods to 0.0013%. The sign of the funding rate doesn't indicate direction, but it has been narrowing, showing fewer people are paying to go long. Leveraged longs are being squeezed out, and no new money is coming in to take their place. The chart's highs are still rising, so the uptrend structure hasn't broken. However, these highs were pushed up by leveraged longs, who have just been cleared once; the 109.82 level was tested but not held. Moving averages show a bearish alignment and price has broken below moving average support, matching the liquidation direction, so I trust this side more. $920 million in open interest is still on the books, longs haven't fully cleared, and the next test will be at 101.56. Conditions to turn bullish: price must hold above 109.82 with open interest increasing simultaneously. If both occur, this bearish judgment is invalid.Interactive Brokers has also launched ETH staking, using ZeroHash technology. But the announcement doesn't provide a single yield figure, nor does it mention the lock-up period or whether you can withdraw at any time.
On-chain interest is originally something you can get in full just by opening a wallet. When integrated into a brokerage account, there's an extra layer of channel and an extra layer of fees; what they're really selling is convenience and compliance.
$BTC
$ETH $ADA 盘面概况 ADA长期处于震荡下行通道，多次反弹都属于弱修复，反弹高度越来越低，很难走出持续性行情。 大盘回暖的时候，ADA涨幅跑输以太坊、SOL等公链竞品；一旦大盘回调，ADA跌幅往往居前，属于典型的跟跌不跟涨弱势标的。 近期还传出个别交易平台计划下架ADA现货交易对的传闻，进一步压制市场信心，场内资金避险离场。 下跌核心原因 1、生态持续萎缩，缺少真实增量 Cardano早年主打学术公链、 peer-reviewed科研叙事，但是落地进度长期偏慢。 链上TVL大幅缩水，DeFi活跃度低迷；曾经头部NFT市场、链上数据工具接连关停，日活地址、链上交易持续下滑。 生态缺少爆款应用，用户流失明显，没有持续的资金与新用户入场支撑币价，宏大叙事慢慢被市场证伪 。 2、赛道竞争挤压，叙事不再稀缺 智能合约公链赛道内卷严重。SOL、ETH、Avalanche持续抢占资金，新公链、模块化公链不断分流关注度。 ADA“科研型公链”的故事已经不再新鲜。别人在高速迭代生态，ADA更新节奏偏慢，市场资金偏好转向有真实用户、交易活跃度高的链，资金持续从ADA流出。 3、$BTC The evening outlook given by Ayue has been partially realized with a slight gain, successfully moving up by over 800 points, and Ethereum also gained nearly 40 points! Friends who kept up with the pace, please pay attention and check, and be careful to reduce positions in batches. $ETH May it continue to follow the trend steadily, advancing step by step, creating new achievements, and living up to every trust and persistence.
$ZEC
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
Don't rush to go all in before the CPI release; crude oil and U.S. Treasuries have already given their answers
The September CPI is coming tomorrow night, and the market expects the numbers to look bad this time. Core CPI month-over-month is expected to be between 0.2% and 0.24%, but the overall CPI year-over-year might jump directly from 3.4% to 3.6%-3.7%.
In simple terms, oil prices have pushed the overall number up, but core inflation is actually cooling down. The national average gasoline price in the U.S. is $4.33, nearly $1 more expensive than the same period last year. However, core components like rent, used cars, and insurance are stable, and the one-time factor of Verizon's price hike has also passed.
Crude oil is even more straightforward. Brent is fluctuating around 104-106, WTI around 91-93. Oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are still being attacked, diesel supply is very tight, and U.S. diesel is $0.70 more expensive than before the conflict. But Trump has said he won't attack Iran before the midterm elections, and Russian diesel exports are starting to loosen up, so oil prices have both ceilings and floors.
U.S. Treasuries are even more interesting. The 10-year yield just surged to a 20-plus-year high of 5.36%, but on Tuesday it reversed and fell back to around 5.19%. The reason is simple: as Asian stock markets fell, safe-haven funds flowed back into U.S. Treasuries. But this doesn't mean the inflation problem is solved; it's purely a risk-hedging demand triggered by the stock market drop.
My view: short-term is more likely to be volatile, no rush to expect a one-way move. If core CPI meets expectations, U.S. Treasury yields may continue to fall in the short term, providing a breather for growth stocks The underlying stock plummeted, but the contract surged — I feel uneasy about the money I made
Tonight's most surreal scene: the US stock storage sector collapsed. Changxin Storage's IPO soared 466% on the first day, scaring global storage stocks — SK Hynix dropped 10%, Micron fell 5%, and SanDisk's underlying stock opened down nearly 5% again.
But OKX's SNDK contract jumped from 1,403 straight up to 1,465, soaring against the underlying stock, now even more expensive than the stock itself. I entered at 1,437, with an unrealized profit of +5.5U.
This surge isn't due to bulls being strong, but because shorts are too crowded: panic selling during the day pushed the contract cheaper than the underlying stock, and when the US market opened with bad news, shorts rushed to cover, pushing the contract price beyond the peak.
So my choice: pocket the profits first. The underlying stock is falling, Changxin's competition is real, and there's a big earnings test on 10/29 — the money made from this mismatch is temporarily parked by the market, don't take it as a sure thing.
Have you ever traded contracts linked to stock-crypto correlation? Let's discuss in the comments.
Risk warning: personal live trading record, not investment advice, leverage risk is extremely high, please do not copy trades. Bookmakers being investigated for advertising—what does this have to do with the crypto space?
Just saw that the FTC is targeting FanDuel and DraftKings, saying their ads might be misleading.
But notice one detail: Kalshi and Polymarket are not on the list.
That’s worth pondering.
Both involve betting, yet traditional gambling is being scrutinized while prediction markets are left alone.
Simply put, regulators currently treat these two as different species.
Gambling is gambling; prediction markets are more like financial instruments.
This is a sentiment boost for platforms like Polymarket, at least they haven’t been targeted in the short term.
But don’t celebrate too soon—the FTC’s review is still early, and it’s uncertain if the scope will expand later.
What I’m more curious about now is whether this wave of scrutiny will turn into free advertising for prediction markets.
#代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？
#$ZEC 近十几年大陆对比特币（BTC）的态度，主线是：从“定性为虚拟商品、提醒风险、隔离金融体系”，逐步走到“全面禁止境内虚拟货币相关业务+清退挖矿+持续打击炒作/洗钱/非法金融活动”。不是突然一刀切，而是逐层收紧。 一、2013：承认是“虚拟商品”，但否认货币属性 - 央行等五部委《关于防范比特币风险的通知》：比特币不是货币，是“特定虚拟商品”，不能当货币流通。 - 金融机构、支付机构不得做比特币兑换、清算、托管、定价、保险等业务。 - 普通人在自担风险前提下可以买卖——属于“商品交易”，不是合法投资品，也不是货币。 - 核心逻辑：防洗钱、保人民币法定地位、把风险关在金融系统外面。 二、2017：从“比特币”扩到“虚拟货币/ICO”，清交易平台 - 央行等七部门《关于防范代币发行融资风险的公告》：ICO 被定性为非法公开融资。 - 境内代币发行融资、虚拟货币交易平台被集中清理，火币/OK 等把境内业务往海外迁。 - 态度变化：不再只是“比特币炒作有风险”，而是把代币融资、平台撮合、募资行为当成金融乱象打。 - 这时候个人炒币还没被说成犯罪，但平台、发币、募资已经不准做。 三、2021：彻底收Glassnode: BTC has twice found support at the ETF cost basis, with key support below at $77,500
According to on-chain institutional data from Glassnode, BTC has twice stabilized and rebounded at the ETF cost basis level, which has shifted from previous resistance to support. If this defense line is breached, the next strong support is expected at the true market average of $77,500.
Opinion: The ETF cost line represents the breakeven point for institutional holdings. The fact that support has held twice indicates strong buying pressure in this area. However, support is not an ironclad bottom; macro interest rate hike expectations and ETF capital outflows could break through this range. Holding near $81,500 is necessary for a rebound; breaking below would directly target $77,500.
Contract trading strategy: Play long positions based on support, with stop-loss set below $77,500. If volume-driven break below $77,500 occurs, avoid bottom-fishing and follow the bearish trend. Also, continuously monitor daily ETF capital flows, as sustained outflows will weaken on-chain support effectiveness.
Do you think the ETF cost support will hold this time, or will it test $77,500?The biggest buyer of HYPE is not institutions: $1.26 billion, it is buying itself
Who is the biggest buyer of HYPE? Not institutions, not ETFs, it is itself. Data from October 10: Hyperliquid's cumulative protocol revenue has exceeded $1.4 billion, of which over $1.26 billion has been used to buy back HYPE. This number alone might not mean much, so let's find a reference — the total net asset value of all $HYPE spot ETFs combined is about $452 million.
In other words, the money the platform has spent on buybacks is nearly three times the total holdings of all ETFs combined. To put it simply: whether those institutions outside buy or not is actually not that important; the real main buyer is the platform's own daily revenue. Other projects rely on calling people in to support the market, but this one relies on real money buying in itself.
I used to focus on who was flowing in and out, but now I don't watch that anymore — that's just small money coming and going. Just keep an eye on the buyer who consistently scoops up every week without fail.Can a trading novice who knows nothing achieve stable profits in the market? I will show you with 100 real trades.
No need to chew on obscure theories, no need to study complicated indicators every day.
You just need to build a simple, personalized set of trading rules: when to enter, how much to take profit, how much loss requires exit, and order position size. The rules don’t need to be complex, just understandable and executable. (Trading strategy at the end of the article)
Today is the fifth trade of the spcx opening strategy.
The market gave the short position a 2:1 risk-reward opportunity, and the short position successfully took profit. As for whether the market will continue to fall or if there will be a big missed opportunity later, I don’t care; I only take the profits within my own trading strategy!
I will use several common market trading strategies to execute 100 real trades, no mysticism, no hype about huge profits, no hindsight bias. No need to chew on complex theories, no market trend predictions, just stick to fixed rules: entry conditions, take profit, stop loss, and position size all predetermined. Every trade is fully recorded, every profit and loss is shown truthfully. No reliance on one-time big wins, only looking at whether the strategy can produce positive results over the long term. As long as it can generate stable profits, anyone can replicate it.
Detailed strategy:
Only trade within the first four hours of the US stock market open, determine highs and lows based on 15-minute candlesticks before and after the open, enter when price breaks out, go long on a breakout above the high, short on a breakout below the low. Stop loss is set at the breakout candlestick’s high or low; if the stop loss is too tight, set it at the previous candlestick’s high or low. Risk-reward ratio is 1-2 times.
spcx is highly popular, with sufficient liquidity during opening hours and large volatility, making it a very good breakout trading target.
The market always has uncertainty; no strategy can guarantee profits forever. Even the best trading systems will encounter losing trades. What makes the difference is whether ordinary people can control their impulses and consistently follow their own rules.
$BTC $SPCX $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 一句话结论：禁止加密货币的国家，大多没“亡国”，但普遍没把加密货币禁掉；结果是“地上市场消失、地下/P2P/稳定币市场长出来”，监管盲区变大，后来不少国家又从禁令转向持牌监管。 一、典型结局分四类 1. 中国：金融系统切干净，但需求转到地下/境外 - 2021 年清退交易所、禁交易、清退挖矿。 - 达成目标：银行体系、居民储蓄、电网资源不再直接绑定高波动加密投机。 - 代价：交易转到境外平台、USDT/稳定币 P2P、香港/离岸渠道；散户维权难，诈骗和跨境洗钱更难追。 - 产业端：币安、OKX 等中国背景团队出海，本土错过 CEX/稳定币原生赛道，但换来了数字人民币和香港合规试验田。 - 结论：国家金融安全收益明显，个人投资者保护变弱，产业外溢。 2. 尼日利亚：禁令失败，5 年后回头搞牌照 - 2021 年央行禁止银行为加密交易所服务。 - 结果：奈拉贬值 + 通胀，民众更想要 USDT；市场从交易所转向 P2P、场外、Telegram 交易。 - IMF 后来明确说：单靠禁令不行，会变成“数字美元化”+监管黑洞。 - 2026 年前后转向虚拟资产监管框架、监管沙盒。 - 结论：禁令Thanks to the market for giving me a V-shaped recovery, otherwise I would have been eating dirt today. Let's talk about my positions in BTC, ETH, SOL, and OKB:
Today, the four brothers I hold all took a hit, but who is the main decliner and who is affected by sentiment can still be seen from the on-chain capital flows:
1. $BTC is the most resilient, with the cleanest on-chain capital. Although the ETF redeemed $450 million, whales took advantage of the big drop to buy 15,000 coins, so BTC's mid-term trend will be very strong.
Also, 81,000 is a strong support level at BTC's 400-day moving average, and every pullback quickly rebounds. From a long-term perspective, BTC is also in a consolidating upward trend.
2. $ETH is the weakest, with ETF net outflows for 8 consecutive days, totaling $640 million. The capital side is too weak to hold.
Moreover, the selling pressure of 4,393 coins transferred from the EF wallet to Kraken remains suspicious, and 2,200 is a critical hard support level below.
3. SOL fell the hardest, mainly due to a $120 million short position on Hyperliquid. The ETF side only saw outflows of over $3 million, so the impact is minor. This token is being suppressed by derivatives sentiment, not by spot money running away.
4. $OKB followed the decline, but its fundamentals are very good: X Layer has integrated xStocks, plans to pursue SEC exemption for 63 US stock tokens, and with deflationary burns, the mid-term position is sustainable.
This kind of follow-the-fall decline can turn into an independent rally at any time, so holders with chips should hold tight!"$CORE 你观察到的流通量减少8100万枚，结合公开信息来看，很可能是9月初硬分叉销毁的超额代币，如今被数据平台更新计入了统计口径，而非项目方在10月进行了新的销毁操作。 🔍 流通量为何减少8100万？ 你截图显示流通量从约15亿降至14.79亿，减少了约8100万枚。这与此前发生的v1.0.26硬分叉事件直接相关： · 9月3日硬分叉：Core DAO通过协议层面永久销毁了超过1.5亿枚超额发行的CORE代币。 · 数据更新滞后：硬分叉发生在9月初，但数据平台（如OKX）的流通量统计更新存在滞后。你之前看到的15亿多，可能是销毁前的旧数据；如今14.79亿，则是平台将销毁部分扣除后的最新统计。 · 并非新增销毁：你提到的“流通率70.45%”以及8100万的变化，反映的是9月已发生的销毁被重新计入，而非项目方在10月有新的动作。 🧐 项目方10月有新的销毁动作吗？ 没有。 自10月1日发布“逐步将区块生产角色交给独立验证者”的声明后，官方推特确实再无新动态。你看到的流通量变化，是历史事件的统计更新，而非新的销毁公告。 🤔 为什么项目方“静默”了？ 10月1日的声明，本质上是一#贝莱德转向超配短债，下调美股评级
$BLK underweights U.S. Treasuries for six years, but this time it has reversed.
▪️ Short-term U.S. Treasuries rating upgraded to overweight, long-term U.S. Treasuries raised from underweight to neutral
▪️ When first underweighted in October 2020, the 10-year yield was about 0.9%; now it is above 5.2%
▪️ U.S. equities rating downgraded from overweight to neutral, agency MBS also downgraded to neutral
▪️ The report believes the market's bets on Fed rate hikes are already too high
▪️ Interest rate swaps show traders expect at least three 25bp hikes in the next 12 months
The divergence is not about whether BlackRock is bullish on U.S. stocks, but that it is doing two things simultaneously: locking in yields and avoiding volatility.
In the same report, the short end is favored because yields have reached a "lock-in" level, while the reason for downgrading U.S. stocks is the "potential volatility brought by AI development." It clearly states it does not mean bearish on AI, just managing near-term risk — but this statement itself highlights the divergence: AI capital expenditure is increasing, financing costs are high, and whether companies can generate returns above capital costs is becoming a screening criterion.
The direction is to wait and see — if rate hike expectations cool down, short-term bonds benefit; if expectations strengthen again, this allocation will need to be reassessed. Something happened in the Strait of Hormuz, so why is $BTC also suffering?
Originally, I thought that when a geopolitical conflict breaks out, Bitcoin could at least benefit a bit from its "digital gold" status. But this time, the intense attacks in the Strait of Hormuz actually slapped it down.
To be honest: this round of crisis is bearish for the crypto market, not bullish.
The logic is actually simple——
When the strait is attacked, oil prices rise. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations return. When inflation returns, the Federal Reserve won't dare to cut interest rates easily. When U.S. Treasury yields rise, assets like Bitcoin that generate no interest naturally get sold off first.
A few data points illustrate the issue:
During the days of escalating attacks, Bitcoin once fell below $81,000, dropping nearly 4% in a week. Ethereum and other major coins fell even harder.
More dramatically, nearly $970 million was liquidated within 24 hours, of which $644 million were long positions. Leveraged funds fled faster than anyone else.
The most ironic thing is that during the most tense moments, gold and Bitcoin both fell together. The term "digital gold" temporarily doesn't hold up in the face of real inflation-driven geopolitical shocks.
So what should we watch next?
Don't just focus on the news headlines; focus on these two more practical things:
First, whether Brent crude oil prices can fall back below $100;
Second, whether the Federal Reserve will be forced to continue tightening because of oil prices.
Once oil prices ease, the macro pressure on Bitcoin will lighten considerably.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $ETH funding rate just turned negative. The total open interest across the network has dropped from daytime levels, down more than 4% in 24 hours. On the 15-minute chart, a bullish engulfing candle formed with significantly increased volume. Price rebounded upward but open interest continued to shrink; the total volume did not expand during the bulls' rally.
The rebound accompanied by declining open interest indicates that the move up was mainly driven by short covering. Sell orders pushing price down are decreasing, and there is a lack of new short positions pressuring the market. Negative funding rate combined with shrinking open interest shows that although bearish sentiment is strong, actual selling pressure on the market has eased and price is not continuing to crash.
Looking at the bigger timeframe, the current price is exactly at the 4-hour support near 2520. The daily EMA lines are smoothly expanding upward from bottom to top, maintaining an overall uptrend. During today's dip, the price slowed down after hitting the 4-hour support. This candle closed without breaking the support, and buy orders at the bottom absorbed this pullback.
For the outlook, I lean bullish. The major 4-hour support below is holding well, the bearish selling pressure has mostly been consumed, and I expect a corrective upward move.
$BTC $SOL #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Looking at the wallet data left me speechless for a long time.
$ZEC currently has the top four addresses holding about 79% of the chips, which means this — all the remaining people in the market still watching this coin and guessing to make a profit are basically fighting over these leftover crumbs. If this data were on any new coin, I wouldn’t even glance twice. Everyone talks about whales controlling the market every day, but when it comes to an old-timer like ZEC that’s been around for years, the feeling is different, like someone quietly cleaned the table.
Look at how it’s dropped 11.6% over the past 7 days, and the short-term price has also been smashed down to around 1199. Doesn’t it look like a bunch of scared folks are rushing to run before it’s completely dead? Then look at the daily chart — it kind of looks like a shallow pit has been dug all the way down. I’m not telling you to believe in this "double bottom"; analyzing this is even fuzzier than fishing, with more people wrong than right. $ZEC SNDK previously said the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. Changxin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "the rise of Chinese chips," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."
SanDisk's fundamentals are fine—the NAND supply-demand gap won't peak until Q1 2028. But the stock price is reflecting the "worst-case scenario" in advance. 1450 is short-term support; if it breaks, look at 1200.
For those holding positions, if 1450 doesn't break, just hold on.To start with the conclusion: The price of $SKDD and the contract positions are telling two different stories right now.
In the past 24 hours, it has risen from 8.5 to 9.9, an increase of about 15%, while 239 perpetual contracts across the market have been falling during the same period. But if you look at the funding rate: -0.28%, meaning shorts are paying longs.
What does this number mean? The funding rate is the "seat fee" between longs and shorts on perpetual contracts, settled every 8 hours, with a baseline of 0.01%. -0.28% is 28 times the baseline. If shorts hold continuously at this level for a month, they will cumulatively pay about 8% — shorts are literally burning money.
Two possibilities: one, the contract side believes this rally can't hold and keeps shorting to hedge; two, shorts are trapped inside, floating losses are growing, and the risk of a short squeeze from forced liquidations is accumulating. Which is true, the candlestick chart will tell you. But one thing is certain now: the price is rising, yet the contract side remains net short.
A word to those using leverage: if you don't understand the funding rate, don't lightly open shorts on "rising days." Opening shorts on rising days means you are the one paying the rent.
$SKDD
Do you think the shorts will hold until 10, or will they be squeezed out first?Tonight marks the start of the Q3 earnings season, with the Big Four banks reporting first, and their results are diverging. Goldman Sachs posted net revenue of 18.68 billion, up more than 20% year-over-year, with stock trading surging 72%, exceeding expectations; JPMorgan Chase's revenue of 50.91 billion fell short of expectations, dropping 2% in pre-market; Citigroup's profits increased by 40%, while Wells Fargo's 21.87 billion was below expectations. One sweet, one salty—bank stocks are likely to split at tonight's open.
The real focus is the US September CPI report at 8:30 PM tomorrow. The market expects the overall year-over-year rate to rise from 3.4% to around 3.6%, mainly driven by oil prices; core inflation expectations remain mostly unchanged. If the core softens a bit, long-term interest rates can ease; if it hardens, bets on rate hikes will resume.
In crypto, outflows are tightening: last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $679 million, the largest week since late June, and Ethereum about $542 million. Meanwhile, the S&P hit new highs, but crypto didn't keep up—there, corporate earnings are supporting prices; here, it's reliant on new money inflows, so any tightening reveals the difference.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering between 5.19 and 5.24 at high levels. Watch two key points: if the 30-year breaks 5.64, tension rises; Bitcoin can't break above 82,500, and buying pressure hasn't returned.
Before a long trip, I usually fill up the tank and review the route once, then don't touch it. Road conditions are unpredictable; the only thing you can prepare is fuel. Just jotting this down as a personal note, not investment advice. It can be proven that Maji likely used algorithmic trading. Maji, who was supposed to be liquidated at 2490, saw the liquidation price drop to 2396 as the market declined, narrowly avoiding liquidation once again. It can be concluded that the chance of him being directly liquidated is extremely low. The only scenario that could cause liquidation is a market that slowly rises and then suddenly crashes. This would cause Maji to add positions during the rise and cut losses during the fall, continuously eroding the principal.$ARB
Arbitrum’s challenge is turning its Layer-2 infrastructure into lasting economic activity. More applications can attract users, but raw transaction counts do not tell the whole story. Fees, liquidity, active users, and competition from other scaling networks all matter. Another important distinction: growth across Arbitrum does not automatically mean equal demand for the ARB token.#俄美推进柴油供应合作，俄乌能源停火仍存分歧
The boss has something to say
Russia and the US are advancing cooperation on diesel supply. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak confirmed that energy departments and companies from both sides are in talks, and Russia has partially lifted diesel export restrictions. The US has also warned Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refining facilities, or it may affect weapons and intelligence support.
However, the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire has not been implemented yet. Trump announced it, but both sides have not jointly confirmed it. Ukraine says Russia is still attacking its energy facilities. The agreement was just announced, but the details have not been finalized.
For the market, increased diesel supply is positive and can suppress refined oil prices. But the energy ceasefire is still uncertain, and the Middle East is also unsettled, so oil prices won't drop in the short term. Today, CL rose 0.38%, BZ fell 0.12%, showing a muted reaction.
I still hold over 82,800 long contracts on BTC, with a stop loss at 81,500 and a target of 86,000. I won't bet on a single direction before the CPI release. ETFs saw a total outflow of 1.2 billion last week, the 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.7%, and macro conditions haven't eased. The longs are short-term plays for a rebound, and I'll reduce positions once the target is reached.
The Russia-US diesel cooperation is a variable, not a direction. Watch the details, not the headlines. Don't chase the rise or kill the dip; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC CPI/PPI are coming, the crypto circle awaits the whistle (｀・ω・´)
This week's crypto market script is almost entirely bet on the CPI and PPI on the 14th. Previously, the Fed minutes were hawkish, hinting at possible rate hikes by year-end; but the nonfarm payrolls and PCE were soft, pushing the October rate hike probability down to about 18%. Don't be quick to relax, the earlier inflation decline hides statistical adjustments, the hawks have not left the stage (￣﹏￣)
This round of data is a short-term watershed. If oil prices raise overall inflation but core inflation cools moderately, expectations to pause rate hikes in October will dominate, $BTC could surge to 87200, $ETH could recover to 2560-2650 (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Conversely, if core inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, rate hike trades will quickly return, US Treasury yields will rise, and crypto prices will be under pressure: BTC may fall back to 80000-81300, ETH could drop below 2470 and test 2370 (｡•́︿•̀｡)
Retail and initial jobless claims can serve as auxiliary indicators to observe economic strength and policy clues. Don't go all in before the data, keep an eye on BTC 84100 and ETH 2560 as key levels, and wait for clear direction before acting~ (￣▽￣)~*#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% If the US stock market officially launches 23-hour trading on weekdays this December, the liquidity of altcoins may further decrease, and many altcoins will go to zero in the future. Therefore, before December is the golden window for junk altcoin pump-and-dump by manipulators to lucky buyers. For me personally, besides allocating a few particularly promising bluechip altcoins, I will also allocate part of my position to $CRCL and $COIN stocks. In the future, the returns of these two coin stocksBitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Cost Basis stands at $73.3K, with BTC trading around 13% above it, meaning recent buyers are currently in profit.
During the 2023 and 2024 uptrends, Bitcoin stayed above this level for months. A drop below it could push recent buyers back into losses, similar to much of the first half of 2026.
#SepCPIHikeWatch #TSMCOct15Earnings #KOSPIDropsOver6% $APT Observation: APT's attempt to reach 1 failed, unlocking completed becomes an excuse to sell
APT surged from 0.69 approaching 1 dollar, but instantly crashed back to 0.82.
News says the initial token unlock for core contributors and investors was fully completed yesterday.
Logically, the release of selling pressure should be a long-term positive, but the market interprets it the opposite way.
Early investors who have waited four years finally fully unlocked; seeing the surge, if not cashing out now, then when? The so-called positive news directly turned into a smokescreen for selling.
Now the market is still waiting for CPI guidance, and off-market funds are tight. Without fresh support, the solo attempt to reach 1 failed, and it can only roll back into the mud with the overall market.
This roller coaster is more thrilling for spectators than for the riders.$ZK Bullish News: ZK rallies against the trend, adding fuel to the ecosystem applications
In a market full of green, ZK sharply pulled up with a big bullish candle of over 8 points, jumping directly from 0.0139 to 0.0165, which is indeed eye-catching.
The news reason given is that Rain Wallet now supports 12 chains including ZKsync.
Actually, this isn't a huge bullish catalyst, but in this current low-volume vacuum period waiting for CPI, even a small ecosystem expansion can become an excuse for speculative traders to band together and hype.
Plus, after a deep drop, even a little capital can leverage a rebound.
But looking at the bigger picture, BTC is still stuck around 83,000, ETH is struggling at 2,500, and the shadow of the Korean stock market crash hasn't lifted yet.
Without volume support from the broader market, a solo rally is most likely just funds shifting pockets within the market.
Such counter-trend rallies are best just observed; don't get easily hooked in.TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high, why should the crypto world care?📈
TSMC's Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, up 50% year-on-year, with the full financial report due on October 15.
You're probably wondering: what does this have to do with the crypto world?
It's a big deal. Today BTC dropped to 81772, triggered by an AI scare: South Korean chip stocks crashed, BTC followed the AI narrative, the Nasdaq sneezed, and BTC caught a cold.
So TSMC's financial report is the "money detector" for AI bulls. The 50% revenue growth is already confirmed; on October 15, we'll see if profits keep up and if the gross margin holds.
If the report beats expectations and the earnings call signals strong demand, it will extend the AI narrative's life. BTC and other high-beta assets that were wrongly punished today can recover.
Looking at BTC, it just turned green; ETH is still weak. The BTC 13/34-week EMA golden cross formed on October 12, the first in three and a half years, indicating a bottom.
But don't pop the champagne yet. October 15 is a double whammy day: TSMC's report and PPI on the same day. If the report disappoints and PPI exceeds expectations, BTC might get pushed back down.
Strategy: don't act before the report.
On October 15, watch for two things:
① What the earnings call says about demand;
② The PPI figures.
If both are good, and BTC breaks above 84000, I'll add; if one disappoints, stay cautious.
In short, the crypto world is now a shadow of the US stock AI trade. This mirror's answer will be revealed on October 15.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 Microsoft launches self-developed Maia 300 AI inference chip, news drives stock price surge to a new annual high. This new product focuses on long context and AI agent inference scenarios, with energy efficiency about 40% higher than current mainstream GPUs. It is planned to enter multi-gigawatt large-scale deployment starting in 2027, aiming to gradually make the Maia series the main computing power for businesses like Copilot, reducing long-term reliance on external GPU vendors and diluting AI cloud service costs. Key point: Maia 300 focuses on inference, not a training chip, and will not directly replace high-end GPUs used for large model training in the short term. The impact on NVIDIA is more of a long-term expectation; short-term order patterns remain unchanged. The market is willing to give Microsoft a premium, recognizing its integration of "model + cloud + self-developed chip," with AI business profitability expected to continue rising. Market differentiation impact: Positive for Microsoft itself, but as a narrative of computing power autonomy, it tends to suppress third-party GPU and HBM-related stocks, which is also the reason for recent differentiation within the semiconductor sector. The Nasdaq tech sentiment recovery will indirectly support high-beta assets like BTC, ETH, etc., but this is sentiment-driven and limited in strength. Follow-up focus: Maia 300 deployment progress, mass production yield, and subsequent Azure cloud revenue and gross margin guidance. If deployment falls short of expectations, this wave of positive impact is likely to reverse. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 说个数据你们可能不信。
SOL现货ETF净资产已经19亿美元了，Bitwise的质押ETF BSOL累计净流入超过12亿，一个人吃掉了全美Solana ETF流入的大约80%。更狠的是，期货那边空头清算占比一度逼近96%。
我对着这两个数字发了好一会儿呆。
翻译成人话：质押型ETF的意思是，你买进去不光赌涨跌，还能顺便吃质押收益。买这类产品的人本来就是冲着长期来的，不是来炒短线的。而空头清算96%意味着什么？押它跌的人，几乎被扫了个精光。
我现在算是想明白了。短期ETF流出几百万，跟12亿累计净流入比，那就是毛毛雨。真正下大注的人，方向是往上押的，而且愿意拿着质押吃利息等。
$SOL 这东西，连空头都没讨到便宜过。我不猜它明天涨不涨，但有人愿意把钱放进来长期吃利息，这个底子就在那摆着。拿得住比什么都强。Interactive Brokers has started allowing clients to stake $ETH.
Sounds big, the veteran broker is finally entering the game.
But on closer thought, this service is provided by ZeroHash.
Interactive Brokers is just a name on the door.
Simply put, money comes in to buy $ETH, then it’s used to generate yield.
Previously, broker clients could only watch the crypto space earn interest.
Now they can get a share too.
The problem is, this meal is served by ZeroHash, not done by Interactive Brokers themselves.
Traditional institutions want to get involved but don’t want to get their hands dirty.
They outsourced it and put their name on it.
How is this different from those brokers back in the day who "supported cryptocurrencies"?
So this news is a plus emotionally.
But if you ask how much $ETH can rise because of this?
I think that’s wishful thinking.
The real question is: who will be the next broker to actually enter the staking business themselves?
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#$ETH #阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点
$ASML Quarterly revenue reflects orders placed in the past.
▪️ Q3 revenue guidance is €11–12 billion, with a gross margin of 55%–57%
▪️ Full-year guidance has been raised to €43–45 billion; Q2 revenue was €9.326 billion, net profit €2.918 billion
▪️ Strong order intake last quarter is the premise for this guidance upgrade
▪️ TSMC Q3 revenue is NT$1.49 trillion, up 50% year-over-year; upstream equipment is an indirect beneficiary
▪️ Earnings report to be released on 10/14; EUV capacity is still expanding
The divergence is not about whether this quarter beats expectations; revenue reflects past orders, while orders reflect customers' outlook for the future.
The equipment industry has a delivery cycle: from customer order, production, installation, to revenue recognition, spanning several quarters. So strong quarterly revenue may just be digesting backlog orders; to gauge market health, we need to see if new orders keep pace. Capacity planning does not equal orders; the company's expansion of EUV capacity is a judgment on demand, not signed customer contracts.
The stance is to wait and see — revenue meeting targets and continued strong new orders are solid; relying only on existing orders means a mid-term weakening.$SKHYNIX Watch: SK Hynix Falls Below 1100, ASML Stabs from Behind
This trend is indeed frightening, dropping from 1386 all the way down to 1096, a daily plunge of over 6%. The panic from the Korean exchange circuit breaker has directly transmitted through the internet.
ASML is reported to raise spare parts prices for Korea starting in 2027. Memory chips are already in a price war, with Chinese manufacturers pressing hard step by step, and now the upstream equipment giant is coming to cut in, squeezing profit margins from both ends. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the average price paid for coins held less than 155 days, sits at $73.3K. Price trades about 13% above it, so recent buyers are in profit.
In the uptrends of 2023 and 2024, price spent months above this line, shaded green on the chart. A fall back below it would put recent buyers at a loss again, as they were for most of the first half of 2026.Options trading volume has hit a new high,
retail investor sentiment has also returned to the level of back then.
But this is not a signal for a price increase.
We only realize the market has finished its move after the fact.
Because sentiment comes from unrealized profits and losses.
Those who have made money feel confident, those who lost want to exit.
So when it's hottest, the price has already completed its move.
It wasn't retail investors pushing the price up back then, it was money.
Retail sentiment is always the result, not the cause.
Every year we use the result to push the cause.
This time, I only look at two things:
Is the position right, and can I sleep well.
I can't predict the market, nor do I want to.
But any position that wakes you up at midnight to check the market, no matter how lively, is wrong.
The excitement belongs to others.
Being able to sleep well is mine.
In summary:
Retail sentiment and options trading volume have returned to 2021 levels,
but Bitcoin hasn't kept up this time. Whether it can repeat that doubling depends on whether that money really flows into crypto.
Most likely, it won't.先对账，傍晚那笔我暂且算对。傍晚写 BTC 今晚摸 84,166 站不稳，证伪是收上 84,166 且 ETH/SOL 同步翻绿。24 小时最高 84,166.3，摸了，没站稳，现在 83,220，证伪一条没触发。 盘面今晚就讲分化。BTC +0.71%，ETH -1.07%，SOL -3.4%，"只有大饼在演"这句话傍晚写完，晚上更贴切。广场热榜"比特币市占率回升至 60%"聊得正欢，数据上确实是这个味。 费率这块值得多看一眼。ETH 费率转负 -0.0015%，做空 ETH 的人开始给多头付利息，看空的人在变多；SOL 费率 0.0002% 贴零，没人愿意付钱做多；BTC +0.0054%，比昨晚的 0.0083% 降了一截，追高付钱的也少了。OI 29,613 个 BTC，约 24.6 亿美元，人没走，都在桌上耗着。 新判断，今晚到明天早盘：BTC 在 82,500–83,500 磨，破 82,500 看 81,600 一带；证伪：收上 84,166 且 ETH/SOL 同步翻绿，这条当场作废。明晚 20:30 CPI 落地前，单日涨跌我都不当趋势。这块也可能是我看错，明天对账见今早这盘面看着热闹，底下其实空得很。 你以为是普跌，还是有人在借恐慌换手？ 醒来刷了一眼，满屏红得整整齐齐。ETH 掉了差不多一百点，BTC 也没扛住，ZEC 更夸张，直接抹掉两百点左右。小币跌得比主流还狠，这种"表面一起崩、底层各怀心事"的画面，我第一反应不是抄底，是先看谁在接。 数据快照： - ETH 回落约 100 点，短线买盘薄 - BTC 同步走弱，避险味道浓于进攻 - ZEC 下挫约 200 点，山寨弹性反向放大 - CPI 与 PPI 公布在即，加息预期被重新摆上台面 动能信号和风险信号得分开看。动能这边，主流同步下杀往往意味着杠杆在被强制降温，不是单纯情绪杀。风险这边，小币跌幅更大，说明承接盘在往确定性靠，愿意接飞刀的人变少了。 我自己的理解是，市场现在交易的不是"跌了多少"，而是"谁还敢在数据前加仓"。CPI 和 PPI 没落地前，任何反弹都容易被当成减仓窗口，而不是趋势反转。这也是为什么轻仓试 ETH 反弹可以理解，但重手就有点赌了。偏多的路径在于，数据不炸、预期稳住，主流先修复，山寨才有第二层传导。偏空的风险在于，预期被提前计价，真数据出来反而利好出尽，小币继续失Bearish Warning: Harker Turns Hawkish, Stagflation Alarm Rings Before CPI
Harker clearly supports further rate hikes, completely disregarding the market expectation of no change in October (79.5% probability).
Overall CPI expectations have surged to 3.7%, driven by energy. If core CPI rises instead of falling, the stagflation gray rhino will truly charge.
The world tightens liquidity along with the dollar, draining liquidity completely.
The market has already moved to hedge in advance. BTC holds firm at 83,275, slightly up 0.71%, with funds fleeing to Bitcoin. ETH is precarious at the 2,505 level, down 0.92%.
Projection: If core CPI cools as expected to 0.2%, BTC could reach 84,000-85,000, ETH may test 2,600. If data blows past expectations, BTC will likely break below 80,000 to find support at 78,000, ETH will lose 2,400.
The verdict comes tomorrow night at 8:30 PM; the climax of this macro drama is still ahead.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Having lunch at noon, a group friend suddenly threw a question: Can I get on board with RSR?
I was stunned for a moment. This coin just appeared on the hot list, up 25% in 24 hours, with trading volume 27.8 times the usual, current price 0.00207. But when you ask what it actually does, none of the usual daily tipsters in the group can give a proper story. No narrative, no new features, purely a fund gamble inside, whoever is slower to take it gets hit.Under the surgical light, a pacemaker with firmware rewritten twice is discharging. Ledger confirms that the theft case currently focuses on devices sold by the Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis, with a few machines affected; one was found to have unauthorized implantation, but no intrusion was detected in the official system or direct sales channels. Researchers estimate suspected losses exceeding $86 million, but the total amount and causal link to the implantation have not been verified; European buyers also report suspicious components, likewise unverified. The issue is not "whether it hurts," but whether the infection is still confined to the puncture site.
From a surgical perspective, a hardware wallet's private key is like the sinoatrial node, the firmware is the atrioventricular node and conduction bundle, and the supply chain is the sterile extracorporeal circulation loop. Once the distributor link is contaminated, it’s not a simple matter of replacing an electrode but a breach in the entire sterile chain. Local debridement can resolve a single abscess, but if the European samples also culture homologous pathogens, it indicates emboli may have detached and entered systemic circulation. What is needed now is intraoperative frozen section, blood cultures, and transesophageal echocardiography—not pushing vasopressors on the patient based on fear indices.
The market is the same. The vital signs of $xGOOGL have been compared with the Ledger incident, but anatomically there is no direct coronary connection between the two. Ledger’s lesion lies in the cold wallet supply chain, while $xGOOGL’s myocardium is the cash flow, advertising, and computing power expectations of tech stocks. If it shows hypotension, it is more likely due to risk appetite—the autonomic nerve—being stimulated, causing compensatory tachycardia and subsequent perfusion insufficiency, rather than myocardial necrosis. The real danger is mistaking peripheral infection for primary heart disease, stenting a healthy ventricle while allowing mediastinitis to spread.
The suspected $86M loss is only the volume of pericardial effusion; draining it without verification could puncture a coronary artery. Is the risk limited to one channel? The answer depends on whether the suspicious European components are homologous. If homologous, the single-channel conclusion is a mistaken thoracotomy; if not, local debridement plus device recall can control it. For $xGOOGL, only when the overall bleeding of crypto risk assets causes a sudden drop in liquidity perfusion pressure will linked low cardiac output appear, not from Ledger directly blocking its coronary arteries.
If the suspicious European components are confirmed, this is not a local abscess but hematogenous dissemination; before that, stitching the Ledger implantation incident onto $xGOOGL’s coronary arteries is equivalent to opening the chest without angiography. #ledgerresellersecurity🔥 $SKHYNIX vs $SOXL : Shorts are making millions!
📉 $SKHYNIX: Down 10.4%. Shorts hold $179.26M vs $100.14M longs. Shorts are up +$22.81M, while longs are down -$14.43M.
🔴 $SOXL: Down 13.4%. Shorts hold $38.62M vs $28.46M longs, with +$4.16M profit.
👀 Fresh 30m flow: $SKHYNIX: $1.92M buying vs $1.74M selling. $SOXL: $4.56M buying vs $4.22M selling.
My pick: $SOXL for a potential rebound. Buyers are returning, but shorts still dominate.The most dangerous moment on the chessboard is never the instant the opponent shouts "check," but when you have just made a brilliant sacrifice, hold a huge material advantage on the board, and the audience starts applauding. Because that's when your calculation is most likely to slacken, while the opponent is calculating the loose pawn chain on your queenside.
TSMC was just that player who made the sacrifice. Third-quarter revenue was about 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year surge of 50%, setting a historic high — that move has been made, and the scorekeeper has finished recording it. But the person truly sitting opposite on the board is now not focused on revenue, but on whether the gross margin can reach the 65% to 67% square. Revenue is the rook, profit is the queen. The rook reaching the seventh rank is beautiful, but if the queen can't keep up, the entire offensive is a castle in the air.
The mistake I most often make in the middlegame is miscalculating exchanges when in an advantageous position. In this game, the bulls hold the trump card of record-high revenue, while the bears clutch the hidden costs of capital expenditure, exchange rates, and overseas factory construction. Both sides are waiting for the move on October 15 — the earnings report and conference call. The real killer move is not in the numbers themselves, but in the tone of management's guidance for Q4. If the tone wavers even slightly, the opponent will immediately launch a whole series of forced tactical combinations.
Now look at the off-board linked chessboard. The Fear and Greed Index is an honest referee; it doesn't understand fundamentals, only sentiment. When sentiment reaches extremes, any good move will be interpreted as "all the good news is priced in." Tokenized assets like $xUSAR essentially compress a slow game into a fast one — the endgame of the U.S. stock market during the day hasn't finished, and a new middlegame battle begins on-chain at night. When the pace speeds up, the most common mistake is not being checkmated by the opponent, but making a blunder yourself.
The liquidation data from SK Hynix, the widening AI credit spreads, Apple's market cap surpassing Nvidia — these are not isolated squares. They are linked constraints on the same chessboard. Once a credit-level crack appears on the AI mainline, the storage and foundry branches will be swept simultaneously. Foundry is the foundation; if the foundation is lost at the gross margin level, all offensive formations based on "unlimited expansion of computing power" above will face upgrade obstacles.
My current position is delicate: I am neither opening new positions nor rushing to close. Because before October 15, all positions are blind moves. A true grandmaster does not rush to attack before the opponent reveals all their pieces, but first completes their own kingside pawn chain and calculates the endgame clearly. If the gross margin reaches 66% or higher with strong guidance, that is a real check, and the bears must respond; if the gross margin just barely passes and the guidance is vague, then this game will drag into the endgame, competing over who has more pawns and whose squares are more secure.
The endgame is never about talent, but about whose pawn structure is healthier. #TSMCOct15Earnings Positive news: Economic data cools down on both fronts, BTC holds strong to keep ETH alive
The US September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 97.9, and ADP employment figures were also below the previous value, both indicating an economic slowdown.
This is an implicit positive for the crypto market; weakening employment and real economy confidence mean the Federal Reserve lacks the confidence for further rate hikes, and the market's expectations for rate cuts may rebound.
On the charts, BTC steadies at 83275, up 0.71%, with funds clearly moving to BTC for risk aversion.
ETH is weaker, currently at 2505, down 0.92%, repeatedly testing the 2500 level.
Price projection:
If inflation cools as expected, BTC is likely to push up to 84000-85000, while ETH needs to first hold above 2500 to have a chance to test the 2600 resistance level.
If data surprises on the upside, BTC will likely retest support at 82000, and ETH will probably break below 2450 to find support.
Tomorrow night’s CPI is the final verdict day; the market has already started positioning in advance, with bulls and bears battling fiercely around 2500 and 83000, waiting to see how the market digests this data.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Tomorrow night at 8:30, September CPI lands, and it is the single most important input before the Fed's October 28 meeting. Institutions expect energy prices to push headline CPI from 3.4% to 3.7% year over year, while core CPI month over month may cool from 0.3% to 0.2%. That split matters enormously: headline inflation gets lifted by oil, but core inflation is quietly decelerating. If core CPI truly slows, it signals price pressure is not broad-based, and the market will lean harder into the pSNDK at $1440, do you dare to buy the dip?
From 2354 down to 1440, 39% lost. A single progress report from China's Changxin, and the three major storage giants are collectively dumped, with SanDisk plunging 6% in one day—but while everyone panics and cuts losses, have you thought: SanDisk makes NAND, Changxin targets DRAM, so the cut hit the wrong target?
First, look at the surface: the structure is broken, the downtrend hasn't stopped.
The stock closed at 1487 on October 12, perpetual futures continue to fall today, touching 1410 intraday. The 1440 you see is a low-level rebound, not a new trend. On Binance charts, MA7 is at 1570, MA25 at 1700, 50-day moving average at 1580—the price is below all short- and mid-term moving averages, a classic descending staircase: 1720, 1660, 1600, 1580, 1487, 1410.
Daily RSI is about 38, weak but not extremely oversold. Hourly level was oversold before, so there will be rebounds, but a rebound does not equal a reversal.
But wait.
The 200-day moving average is around 1180, the large-scale uptrend is not yet broken. From the 52-week low of 121 to the high of 2354, this is a typical memory supercycle revaluation. The question now is not "will it rise," but "how far will this valuation cut go."
First point: Changxin targets DRAM, SanDisk makes NAND—this cut hit the wrong target.
Today's sell-off was directly triggered by progress in next-generation DRAM density by China's Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT). The market used this to hit the entire storage sector, dumping Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk together.
But SanDisk makes NAND, not DRAM, and is not a direct competitor to CXMT.
There is panic, and fundamentals are being exaggerated.
The real pricing node is the earnings report on October 29—about two weeks away. Before that, any rebound should be considered emotional repair, not a fundamental reversal.
Wall Street target price midpoint is about 2170, range 1400-3600, with an overall buy rating. But target prices are slow variables and cannot stop short-term valuation cuts.
Second point: P/E ratio is only 7 times, so why is the stock still falling?
SanDisk is one of the world's major NAND suppliers, partnered with Kioxia in a joint venture, benefiting from AI data center enterprise SSD and storage price hike cycles. Revenue and profits have exploded in the past year, TTM P/E is about 20 times, forward P/E compressed to single digits.
The bulls' story has always been: "The cycle is not over, valuation is already cheap."
But the problem is—the stock price has already priced in this story fully.
From 121 to 2354, it rose 19 times in one year. Now the market is trading two things: whether price hikes can continue, and whether the Chinese capacity narrative will suppress valuation. There are no new answers to these before the earnings report.
Cyclical stocks can get cheaper even if cheap. A 7x P/E is not the bottom; the market is pre-pricing a "cycle peak."
Third point: You are playing by different rules.
This is a high Beta tech stock, not a coin with an independent narrative. AI capital expenditure expectations, US stock risk appetite, and interest rates influence direction more than crypto funding rates.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On the bull side:
- 200-day moving average at 1180, large-scale trend intact
- Forward P/E in single digits, valuation not expensive
- AI data center SSD demand still present, price hike cycle not disproven
- Wall Street target price midpoint 2170, rating leans buy
- Changxin targets DRAM, not direct competition with SanDisk NAND
On the bear side:
- Retraced 39% from 2354, structure broken, not a shakeout
- Below all short- and mid-term moving averages, clear descending steps
- Chinese storage capacity narrative suppresses valuation
- No new answers before October 29 earnings
Trading strategy
Two weeks before earnings, this is a "falling volatility," not a "rising trend."
Short term:
- Around 1440 is not suitable for opening new longs. To go long, only do so with confirmation of "holding 1400-1410 + volume contraction + reclaiming 1480," target 1500-1550, stop loss below 1390.
- If 1440 rallies to 1480-1500 but meets resistance and volume is insufficient, that is a better short position, target 1410, break 1400 target 1350. Stop loss above 1510.
Medium term:
- Qualification for mid-term longs is daily close back above 1550-1580 and holding. Before that, all rebounds are treated as pullbacks.
The real large-scale buying point is not guessed here. Either wait for direction after the October 29 earnings or wait for price to return near the 200-day moving average (currently far below) to see support. Entering now is betting against the earnings two weeks later.
For existing longs: the 1480-1500 rebound is a reduction zone, not an add zone. If it breaks 1400, accept the loss; do not average down on perpetual futures.
What not to do:
- Do not go all-in during the decline just because "forward P/E is only 7 times."
- Do not treat Binance perpetual prices as Nasdaq transaction prices. Pre-market, after-hours, weekends, basis is your cost.
- High leverage is not suitable for this asset. Positions still held, funding rates still punish longs, one earnings report or one Chinese storage news can cut another 10%.
SNDK now is like Micron in 2022—
Everyone shouting "cycle bottom, cheap valuation, AI demand explosion."
What happened?
Halved from the high, then halved again. The bottom of cyclical stocks is never calculated by P/E, but hammered out by capacity clearing.
The pre-earnings rebound is not for you to get on board, but to reduce positions.
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