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$LIT has already dipped down today, liquidating bottom-fishing retail traders, and now it’s starting to pump to squeeze the shorts 🙈Not proprietary trading by investment banks hoarding — their spot Bitcoin fund has crossed another round number.
According to ChainCatcher citing Arkham 9/30: Morgan Stanley continued to increase holdings last week through its spot Bitcoin ETF MSBT, with total holdings surpassing 10,000 BTC for the first time, currently about 10,436 BTC, valued at approximately $875 million. Compared to the 9/25 holdings of the same product breaking 9,000 at about 9,218, this is a NEW milestone: monitored holdings ≠ bank proprietary base positions, breaking a round number ≠ a single new purchase on the day, market value fluctuates with the order book. At the time of writing, OKX BTC is about 85,431. Not investment advice.
$BTC $BTC drives $WLD and $NEAR higher, but new positions at high levels are increasing pullback pressure.
According to the current market conditions, $BTC is at $85,431, up 1.23% in 24 hours; $WLD is at $0.5603, up 11.84%; $NEAR is at $5.357, up 10.61%.
BTC perpetual positions increased by 0.5%, WLD by 9.1%, NEAR by 8.0%, with all three having positive funding rates. New longs participated in the rally; WLD's one-hour RSI is about 79, indicating higher risk of chasing prices.
In OKX smart money, BTC longs account for 94.2%, but total positions decreased by about $3.4 million. Only 3 people hold WLD positions, all long, which does not represent broad buying; NEAR also has only 3 holders, with longs accounting for 68.3%.
NEAR spot ETF had a net inflow of about $35.5 million on the first day, providing spot support, but the price is already near the one-hour high of $5.47. WLD has a larger increase and is more likely to trigger high-level long profit-taking on pullbacks. Short-term priority is to wait for BTC confirmation.
If BTC closes above $85,650 on the one-hour chart and holds on the pullback, light long positions can be taken with a stop loss at $84,950 and a target of $87,050.
If BTC closes below $84,850, longs in all three should be cautious; watch $0.540 for WLD and $5.23 for NEAR, and consider shorting only if these levels break and fail to recover.
Reduce leverage before macro data releases. Hot Coin Data Ranking｜Last 15 Minutes
$WLD is rising, active buying and selling are close, and positions are shrinking simultaneously: 15-minute price +3.10%, active buying 55.5%, position volume -0.84%. Short-term price is relatively strong, the signal of increasing positions following the rise has not yet formed. Today is the last day of September
The September nonfarm payroll surprisingly released at the end of the month, with results exceeding expectations, employment stabilizing
But August core PCE remained flat compared to last month, below expectations, indicating some easing of inflation
The probability of a rate hike in October has significantly cooled down
The US dollar index fell sharply in the short term, gold broke through 4200, Bitcoin broke through 850
After resting for a week, the adjustment is almost done
Missed the golden September
Silver October begins the new journey of the fourth quarter 说白了，白天那根针我手也抖了一下。BTC 一度干到 82902，跌破 8.4 万，广场热榜都挂上了。晚上拉回 85448，24 小时涨 1.28%。 今晚费率有意思：BTC +0.0053%，ETH +0.0071%，SOL +0.01%，全线小正。多头重新愿意付利息了，但付得不多。翻译一下：有人敢往上看，但没疯。恐慌盘刚被洗掉，贪心盘还没进来。 按我之前实测的 15 次转负样本：真正危险的是连续转负。今晚温和转正 + 急跌被买回来，动能没死，偏暖。 但我也没想透一块：这根针到底是恐慌盘最后一摔，还是半山腰。证伪条件摆这：83000 守不住，这篇当我白写，评论区来打脸。 白天跌破 8.4 万那会儿，你动了没？ #BTC #资金费率#USIranTalksRestart Talks are back, but oil near $100 says markets aren't celebrating yet 👀
Qatar is trying to bridge Hormuz access, the blockade and nuclear issues, but sequencing remains the sticking point.
What caught my attention is the asymmetric setup. A deal could release some risk premium, but another shipping disruption could quickly push crude higher.
This isn't just geopolitics. At $100 oil, every setback can feed inflation, yields and Fed expectations, with BTC caught in storm.My cousin somehow got two mining rigs the year before last.
He put them on the balcony, and the fans sounded like hairdryers.
When the electricity bill came, his face turned green.
The neighbors even knocked on the door saying it was too noisy.
After mining for a few months, he calculated and didn’t make much profit.
He sold the mining rigs, left with a bunch of cables.
He still holds a bit of $LTC,
says it’s for remembrance, but actually just too lazy to move it.
Once he transferred $USDT to me.
I waited a long time on my end, feeling anxious.
The transfer did go through, but the note got flagged by risk control.
It scared him into only trying small amounts afterward.
A colleague once paid fees with $BNB.
He said it’s really cheap when it’s cheap,
and painful when it’s expensive.
Listening to this, I feel this field is pretty deep.
You can’t understand it just by watching a few videos.
Some people calculate profits daily, very thoroughly.
When it really drops, they still can’t sleep.
Now I don’t touch contracts or leverage.
I buy very little spot.
Just watch the excitement, occasionally learn something.
Anyway, the money is in my own pocket, that’s the most reassuring.The first time I heard someone talk about this was at the dinner table.
A colleague said he bought some $BTC, and I only half understood.
When I got home, I downloaded an app but couldn’t figure it out after fiddling with it for a while.
Later, I just bought a little casually and couldn’t help but check it every day.
I’d be happy if it went up a few dollars, annoyed if it dropped a few.
My temper got worse during that time.
Then I tried $ETH, and the fees made me feel half disappointed.
I kept swapping back and forth, didn’t make money, and got really tired.
The dumbest thing was not accepting the drop and adding more.
I ended up scaring myself with how much I added.
Looking back now, it was just greed.
Always hoping for a big turnaround, but there’s no such easy luck.
Later I learned my lesson and only use spare money.
No borrowing, no pledging, no touching what I don’t understand.
I also left the groups that shout trading signals.
I just glance at those showing off profits, don’t take it seriously.
Now I still hold some $SOL.
I’m too lazy to check the ups and downs every day.
If I can hold, I hold; if not, I sell.
Sleeping well is more important than making quick gains.
This field is too deep, don’t think you’re a pro.
Luck-earned gains will sooner or later be paid back by skill.
That’s about it, all learned through bumps and bruises.#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 $BTC $ETH — U.S. bond yields at the highest level in 19 years, and consumer confidence collapses.
On Thursday, U.S. bond yields reached their highest level in 19 years, putting pressure on risky assets — but Bitcoin holds steady at $84,000. Analysts say the key is not the rise itself but the reason — expectations of interest rate hikes, not economic fears.
Strategy bought an additional 1,665 BTC, totaling 847,666. Bitmine surpassed 6 million ETH.
Major investors continue buying.
#OctoberRateHikeOdds
#MicronEarningsAhead
#US30YYieldBreaks5.6% [Old Leek Observation]
$CELO
Suddenly surged into the gainers list today, rising over 20% at one point within 24 hours, with a significant increase in trading volume.
The story behind it is simple: Celo is discussing using 25% of the L2 Sequencer's net income for permanent CELO burn.
Note, this is currently just a governance proposal, not an executed burn yet. You can consider positioning.
Entry: $0.100–0.106
Take profit: $0.115 / $0.125 / $0.138 / $0.155 / $0.180
Stop loss: $0.093#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
PCE suddenly cooled off, tonight can be said to be the biggest positive for BTC.
Based on the latest data, it can be inferred that inflation is not as stubborn as the market imagined. Before the PCE release, the market's expectation for a rate hike in October had dropped quickly from over 70% a week ago to nearly even odds.
Now with a PCE lower than expected, if US Treasury yields and the dollar continue to fall, BTC will have the conditions to continue testing upward tonight.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $BTC $ETH $ZEC На новых макроданных США цена BTC в моменте показала рост выше 85 000$. И даже подбирается к 86 000$. Ситуация такая, что если цена удержит текущий уровень или даже продолжит рост в ближайшие 2 часа - это будет означать возвращение в устойчивый аптренд на 3-часовом ТФ. И необходимость прикрыть набираемую последней долю шорт-позиции. В очередной раз. НО все же мы бы не спешили с выводами, потому что нисходящая структура с 21 сентября - не сломлена (но перестроилась), а на графике красуется StrongIt really skyrocketed in no time!
$168,000 turned into $1.2 million! "Bonk Guy" made over $1 million profit from a single SI trade
On September 30, Lookonchain detected that the trader known as "Bonk Guy" (@theunipcs) held 19 million SI tokens, currently valued at about $1.2 million.
He initially invested only $168,000, with a paper return close to 6 times, floating profit exceeding $1 million.
What truly deserves attention is not just the "6 times" figure, but the wealth effect of these low market cap tokens rapidly amplifying.
$168,000 position → price rises → holding value surpasses $1 million → more capital attention → liquidity and volatility further increase.
But the reverse is also true: the greater the floating profit, the more significant the pressure to cash out.
If the whale starts transferring to exchanges or continuously reducing positions, the potential selling pressure corresponding to 19 million SI could increase significantly.
So when looking at SI now, don’t just focus on the price increase, but also watch whether whale wallets are transferring, if trading volume can sustain, and whether high-level chips are starting to loosen.
A 6x return is exciting, but the real challenge is turning "paper profit" into "realized gains."A state-owned oil company is using Cardano to record aviation fuel accounts.
Sounds quite surreal, but this is not just hype.
Petrobras is testing two things: a sustainable aviation fuel and a Diesel R.
The core is one thing — recording on-chain where each environmental benefit comes from, who claims it, and when.
Simply put, it’s to prevent the same emission reduction from being sold twice.
Previously, these accounts relied on Excel and emails; now they are recorded on-chain.
For $ADA, this is real adoption, not just hype.
But don’t get too excited yet.
Such enterprise-level pilots are still some way from truly impacting the coin price.
What I care more about is whether a second or third company will follow.
One pilot is just a pilot; three companies make a trend.
At this point, I’m cautious and waiting for the next name to appear before commenting.
#美国启动4000万桶战略油储交换 $ADA ZEC rallied up from a low near 570.15 to hit a peak of 1,697.45 before pulling back. Right now, it is trading around 1,475.76.
My best prediction is that if ZEC holds above 1,414 support, it can break 1,697 and target 1,850 soon. If it drops below support, it might retest 1,200. My all time best prediction for ZEC is 3,500 in a major privacy token rally!
Where do you think ZEC will go next? PCE is more bullish, can Bitcoin still be chased?
Core PCE MoM 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, short-term positive for the crypto space.
Bitcoin has already rallied, I am bullish but not in a hurry to chase.
Watch 85,000: if it holds on a pullback and then breaks through 85,490, the rise looks more promising; if it falls below and fails to recover, be cautious of a pullback after a spike.
🐼 Being bullish does not mean chasing.
September 30, 21:00｜OKX USDT Perpetual$TRX Why does TRX still stay near the intraday high when the overall market is fluctuating?
This afternoon, OKX spot 24-hour range was about 0.33388–0.33873, with a trading volume of approximately 5.7 million USDT, and the price is close to the upper boundary. Stablecoin transfer demand can bring continuous network fees, but short-term strength may also just be low-volatility capital rotation; it is necessary to distinguish between real usage growth and price defense.
If the 1-hour volume surge holds above 0.33873, I will increase my judgment for the range moving upward; if it falls back below 0.33388 with active transfers and weakening fees, then the resistance to decline can no longer be considered a fundamental improvement. Attention should also be paid to fee policies and compliance changes.Happy National Day holiday, floating profits are increasing～
BTC 85490, I've been watching OKX, and my eyes finally lit up. Yesterday it was stuck at 83440, today it directly surged to 85490, rising more than 2000 points in one go, breaking through the 84000-84500 resistance.
I glanced at the order book, buy orders above 85000 are still there, indicating this move is not a fakeout, there is real capital pushing. But 85500-86000 is the next hurdle; if it breaks through without volume, it will most likely pull back to catch a breath. Volume has clearly increased compared to the past few days, panic sentiment is basically digested, no new developments on the geopolitical front, the market is refocusing on liquidity and ETFs.
$BTC key levels I mark:
Support: 84500-84800, as long as it doesn't break on the pullback, it's still strong; if broken, look at 83500.
Resistance: 85800-86200, only with volume breaking above can we look at 87000-87500.
My operation: Long positions have caught a breath, floating profits reached 85%, I will take partial profits near the current price to lower the cost, the rest will be set with a trailing stop, fully exit if it breaks below 84500, consider adding if volume breaks above 86000. Such a sharp rally, chasing longs is easy to get caught at the top, waiting for a pullback confirmation is safer.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh says directly, this time institutions are not just taking photos at the crypto gate, they are really opening their wallets.
Data shows that from September 21 to 25, the US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was about $2.4 billion, the highest weekly inflow since October 2025, pushing the cumulative fund flow this year back into positive territory!
What does $2.4 billion mean? Retail investors are still debating in groups whether "Bitcoin will go to zero," while institutions are already entering the market with shopping carts to buy. This indicates that near $80,000 there is no shortage of long-term buying, and traditional funds are gradually shifting Bitcoin from a "high-risk toy" to a formal component in investment portfolios.
But ETF inflows are not a free pass. US Treasury yields remain high, macro data is slightly overheated, and short-term funds will still pull the plug and run. Institutions are responsible for supporting the bottom, but that doesn't mean market makers won't first spike the price to shake out high leverage.
Pharaoh's view on the market is clear: holding 82,500–82,000 keeps the overall trend oscillating with a bullish bias; only by firmly reclaiming 85,000 can the upward space open, with attention then on 87,000–88,000. Conversely, if ETF inflows cool down and volume breaks below 82,000, be prepared to defend 80,000 or even lower levels.
In summary: institutions are already at the table, but the bull market hasn't started yet. Buying on dips in batches is much more reliable than chasing the green candles shouting "take off." $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 DOGE did the heavy lifting today, while BICO gave some of it back. Two trades combined are still sitting around +210U. Checked the account and DOGE immediately caught my attention — the long position pushed above 0.091, while BICO moved against my short. After both positions were counted together, the account remains in profit. Position update: $DOGE: entry around 0.083Patience pays. $ETH finally broke below 2,670. If it dips a little more, I’ll close my position. After moving sideways all morning, it’s finally showing some action. Let’s see if the bears can push it to 2,650.
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #MicronEarningsAhead #US30YYieldBreaks5.6% 【On-Chain Trading Update｜ZEC】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: $1,469.93
▪ Transaction amount this time: $815,810.68
▪ Leverage: 10x
Note: This address has earned over $196,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +8.32% 2635 to 2665 could be the most important cost range for ETH going forward
In the past few days, $ETH has repeatedly found support around 2635 to 2665, with today's low also near $2664. This indicates that new position costs are accumulating in this range, but the cost range does not equal an absolute bottom.
If each pullback is quickly recovered and the lows gradually rise, it shows that the funds willing to buy here are becoming more proactive. When the next breakout occurs, these chips are more likely to become an upward driving force.
Conversely, if the number of tests increases but the rebound amplitude decreases, the support may be continuously consumed. The last breakdown often won't be quickly pulled back like the first time.
I am bullish on $ETH in the long term, but short-term judgments must respect changes in the cost range. Holding this range means the market still has conditions to challenge 2737 and 2805 again; a valid breakdown means first accepting structural weakness, then waiting for the next real buying opportunity to appear.Just finished analyzing on-chain data, speaking the truth.
MVRV is stuck in the mid-range, no one is rushing to sell.
SOPR is stuck at 1, the cut-loss orders have basically stopped.
Exchange balances are dropping, these folks are hoarding.
Whale addresses moved, I smell smart money.
The URPD chip peak is holding firm.
$CT, this symbol, is like a starry sea suddenly lighting up in outer space.
Don’t guess tops or bottoms, follow the whale footprints.
I’ll shout if there’s any unusual movement.#特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI At first, I couldn't even clearly explain what cryptocurrency was.
A friend pulled me into a group and said to just play around.
I saw others showing off screenshots, and on a whim, I bought $BTC.
During that time, I never put my phone down, even waking up at midnight to check the market.
When it went up, I felt pretty awesome.
When it dropped, I searched everywhere for reasons.
Later, I heard $ETH was a bit more stable, so I tried messing with it.
But the fees made me grimace.
I switched back and forth a few times, but my principal actually got thinner.
The dumbest thing was adding more after losses, always hoping to break even in one shot.
The more anxious I got, the more chaotic it became, and the more chaotic, the more I lost.
For a while, I couldn't eat well or sleep soundly.
My family asked what was wrong, but I stubbornly said nothing.
Later, I accepted that this money is hard to earn.
No borrowing, no all-in bets, no touching what I don't understand.
I stay far away from contracts and those things.
Now I just keep a little $SOL.
When it rises, I don't get cocky; when it falls, I don't curse.
I play with spare money, and losing it doesn't affect my life.
I basically ignore the signals shouted in the group.
If it were truly profitable, who would teach you every day?
This circle is bullish one day and bearish the next; no one can say for sure.
I just treat it as a hobby, not a lifesaver.
A position that lets me sleep well is truly mine.
That's about it; all lessons bought with money. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 $BTC and $ETH are still moving within a range as traders wait for the upcoming PCE data.
I’m keeping my $BTC and $ETH shorts protected with breakeven stops. My $AKE short took a heavy hit today, so I’ve reduced part of the BTC short while leaving the ETH short open.
I remain bearish for the month. If PCE comes in below expectations and BTC breaks above $85K or ETH moves beyond $2,750, I’ll look to take profit.
For now, patience and risk control remain key.
#OctoberRateHikeOdds $SOON If it doesn't come down before 12 o'clock, I'll withdraw. The first rule of confidentiality: don't tough it out.🚨 As soon as the PCE was released, BTC surged over 2,000 points in 5 minutes! But the real test is just beginning
📊 Data (Beijing 20:30):
August core PCE YoY 3% (expected 3.3%), MoM 0.2% (expected 0.3%), July was also revised down to 3%.
📈 Market (my 5-minute chart):
· 82,983 → 85,490.6, straight surge after data
· After the spike, a small pullback, currently oscillating above 85,300
· 5-minute SuperTrend at 84,740, bullish structure still intact
⚠️ But I’m not chasing, for 3 reasons:
Some revisions come from BEA statistical adjustments, the cooling has some distortion
August personal spending MoM +0.9%, economy not weak, Fed may not stop
Just rejected near 85,500, with previous high at 87,400 above
🎯 My plan:
· Hold 84,740 → bullish continuation, watch for pullback
· Break below 84,740 → this wave might be a pulse, deeper pullback
Do you think it can hold above 85,500? Leave your judgment in the comments 👇
$BTC $ETH $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Airdrop event in its final stage, two low-wear participation strategies
The event is about to end, currently the average share per person is less than 50u, the cost-performance ratio is still good, those who haven't participated can still catch up.
Strategy one: Use mainstream tokens as base holdings, buy 100 to 200u, control wear between 2 to 5u, and simultaneously open an equal amount of short positions in the wallet to hedge, eliminating directional risk and only earning event points.
Strategy two: Focus on newly launched tokens, buy small amounts in batches, sell once doubled, don't get attached.
Avoid old tokens, the probability of loss and gain is not proportional. Also, pay attention to tokens with special marks, profits count double on the leaderboard, earning 5u is roughly equal to 10u.
$ARGUSBTC and ETH remain range-bound as traders await PCE data. I’m holding BTC and ETH shorts with breakeven stops. My $AKE short was hit hard today, so I’ve closed part of the BTC short while keeping the ETH short open. Still bearish this month; if PCE comes in below expectations and BTC breaks $85K or ETH $2,750, I’ll consider taking profit.
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #MicronEarningsAhead #US30YYieldBreaks5.6% $BTC, $BNB, and $AAVE can represent three different perspectives: BTC controls the market baseline, BNB monitors exchange user fund flows, and AAVE observes leverage changes in the lending market. Watching these three coins together makes it easier to identify market leverage expansion and contraction than simply focusing on the price movements of a single coin.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 【On-Chain Trading Update｜UNI】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: $9.14
▪ Transaction amount this time: $406,038.12
▪ Leverage: 10x
Note: This address has earned over $196,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +8.32% As an explorer deeply engaged in Web3 and AI computing power infrastructure, what I care about most is definitely the deep integration of AI and on-chain finance.
Although the intersection of AI and Web3 is currently a hot topic, most discussions remain at the narrative level. AI technology can truly address the three major pain points of current on-chain transactions: emotional trading by humans, the energy limitations of round-the-clock monitoring, and the complexity of on-chain interaction thresholds. Through AI Agents and smart contracts, we can achieve 7x24-hour automated strategy execution and risk management, enabling funds to truly operate "intelligently."
What I look forward to most at this OKX Now conference is seeing real-world cases of AI Agents seamlessly integrating with PayFi and decentralized computing power networks. AI should not just be a hype tool but should become the infrastructure of crypto finance.
Looking forward to exchanging ideas with fellow Builders in Singapore and jointly welcoming the explosive growth period of AI+Web3!表面很安静，底下其实绷得很紧：今晚PCE前，市场在偷偷做风险管理 你有没有发现，越是没有波动的时候，越容易让人放松警惕？ 我盯着盘面看了一整天，最大的感受不是无聊，而是所有人都在屏住呼吸。10月加息预期确实回落了一点，但这份好消息并没有换来追涨，反而更像是给了大家一个借口，把仓位悄悄缩回去。资金没有离场，但也没有前进一步，全在等今晚PCE。 BTC现在大概83200附近，日内微涨，但整体还是箱体。下方81700是这轮反复被测试的支撑，多空在这个区间来回拉扯，没有哪一边敢先动手。这种窄幅震荡不是平静，是定价权暂时交给数据了。 ETH大约2650，日内微跌，节奏贴着BTC走，但波动更明显，插针也更频繁。下方2580是短线关键，如果失守，山寨的情绪会被带着往下压一层。它现在更像是在被动跟跑，而不是主动领涨。 OKB大概117，轻微偏强，抗跌属性比较突出，大盘调整时它基本没跟着走，下方112是目前的缓冲垫。这种独立节奏说明部分资金在找相对安全的角落待着，而不是全面撤退。 我真正想说的是：现在市场交易的不是方向，是风险管理。 偏多的逻辑在于，加息预期降温本身是风险偏好修复的起点。如果今晚PCE显TopNod integrates Axil's flexible income product APT, offering an 8% target annualized return combined with T+0 liquidity. Essentially, this upgrades the wallet from a storage tool to a wealth management gateway. The layered liquidity framework attempts to balance returns with instant redemption, but the initial $10 million quota is relatively small, more like a trial. Against the backdrop of U.S. Treasury risk-free rates exceeding 5%, an 8% return inevitably involves risks related to smart contracts, strategies, and liquidity, and is not risk-free arbitrage. If risk control and transparency are adequate, it could attract idle on-chain funds, but the target annualized return is not guaranteed, so attention should be paid to the underlying assets and Axil's historical performance. This is a positive attempt to popularize DeFi wealth management, though it is unlikely to change the market liquidity situation in the short term.[Proportion of On-Chain Unrealized Profits for BTC Short-Term Traders] has risen to 33%, the highest level since December 2024. Profit-taking has increased significantly. Historically, when profit margins are at similar levels, investors typically choose to realize gains.
Additionally, both BTC spot demand and futures demand are slowing down. Spot demand has been continuously declining, with a reduction of 170,000 BTC in the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the growth of speculative futures demand has slowed, dropping from 160,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC on September 29. The growth in speculative futures demand has been the main driver behind the recent BTC price increase.
Without new demand, it will be difficult for these upward trends to continue. Since spot demand is still shrinking and futures price growth has stalled, sustaining price increases in the short term is somewhat challenging.
Therefore, if the price continues to rise this time, we need to be more cautious rather than greedily following the trend. This includes spot ETF data, which, after reaching the largest net inflow on September 21, has been continuously shrinking and weak, persisting until today. These are all very important warning signals to pay attention to.Powell’s comments feel like a warning: if NFP beats expectations, risk assets could face more downside. SOL is struggling below $148, while DOGE remains around $0.085.
I’ve shorted SOL at 146.8 and DOGE at 0.084—last-ditch positions. Now we wait for the data.
Personal trade, not financial advice.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #MicronEarningsAhead #US30YYieldBreaks5.6% $BTC continues to take off 🛫
The US core PCE annual rate was lower than expected, hitting a six-month low, leading traders to reduce their expectations for a Fed rate hike.
On Monday, I posted to everyone that a short-term pullback to our weekly support level between 82500 and 83000 would occur. As long as this support holds, there will be another rally.
This weekly support level has been tested four times consecutively, all holding firm, followed by a rebound and a breakthrough above 85000.
My key level is simple: just one weekly support level.
I have also explained before how resistance and support levels can switch roles.
The 82500–83000 range previously saw multiple rebounds but faced resistance here, causing a drop, even once pulling back to 76000.
However, once this level breaks through and holds, if the market pulls back again, the previous resistance will turn into our support.
So, just go long at the weekly support level.
As long as this level is not broken, there will be another rally.
Overall, the market still aligns with my expectations. The most frustrating thing about this SOL trade is that every time it dips, I feel like "finally it's the bears' turn," but after waiting around, I still can't get out of the position 🥲. Shorted at 106.43, screenshot taken at 121.70, the page shows a single contract floating profit and loss rate of -1434.74%, and the position is still open.
There is finally some change in the funding side that aligns with the bears' expectations: the net inflow of the US SOL spot ETF dropped from $86.7 million on September 25 to $7.7 million on the 28th and $5.4 million on the 29th. The new buying has clearly slowed down, but the total net inflow over these days is still positive, so we can't say institutions have fully withdrawn.
**However, I have to guard against treating "a record-breaking day" as the standard that must be met every day going forward.** The inflow on the 25th was originally the highest single-day value in this statistics table. Using it as a reference, it's easy to think the buying is weak afterward, but a return from abnormal activity to normal doesn't automatically mean the market will reverse.
So what I'm waiting for in this trade is not just a decline in subscription numbers, but after the buying cools down, sellers start to accept lower prices to close deals, and the rebound finds it increasingly difficult to recover losses. Conversely, if new funds decrease but the price still holds up, I have to admit: the selling pressure might not be as urgent as I thought. You can't just study why others shouldn't buy without asking why others must sell.The earliest time I got into this was when a friend pulled me into a group.
Every day someone was showing off their orders, making me eager.
I bought $BTC without understanding anything.
At that time, I didn’t even know what a wallet was.
When it rose, I thought I was good; when it fell, I blamed luck.
Later I messed around with $ETH, the fees were really high.
Trading back and forth, my principal kept shrinking.
Looking back now, it was all just pointless busywork.
The worst time was when I bought more after a drop.
Always thinking I’d break even soon.
But I just got deeper and deeper.
I couldn’t sleep well at night and had no energy during the day.
My family noticed something was wrong with me.
Later, I set a few rules for myself.
No borrowing money, no going all in, no touching what I don’t understand.
Only use spare money, the kind I won’t mind losing.
Now I occasionally look at $SOL.
Whether it rises or falls, I just let it be, my mindset is much steadier.
There’s too much info in this circle, hard to tell real from fake.
Those shouting orders or showing profits, just take a look.
If someone really makes money, who has time to teach you every day?
Don’t mistake luck for skill.
Don’t mistake a rebound for a bull market.
Only what you can cash out is truly yours.
What’s on paper is just numbers.
Now I don’t chase hot topics or stay up late watching the market.
If I have it, I hold it; if not, it’s fine.
To be honest, this thing is just for fun.
Treating it as a lifeline is risky.
Dreaming of getting rich overnight is okay.
But truly believing it comes at a high cost.
Take it slow, surviving is the most important.
All these lessons came from small losses.
That’s about it. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 Heart of the Sky｜Trading Diary｜US Stock Market Linked $ETH
NO.005｜2026.09.30
Daylight Saving Time US main board officially opens: Beijing Time 【21:30】; 20:30 is only US pre-market futures, liquidity is weak, prone to false signals.
ETH has a risk asset linkage relationship with the Nasdaq; the US session (after 21:30) is the most important time window to break the current range 【2632‑2731】.
⚠️Rule: Do not use pre-market futures as the basis for opening positions; to determine direction, prioritize ETH's own 4H closing price + volume, US stocks are only a catalyst and cannot decide the market.
Avoid trading and opening positions at night due to high volatility.
Technical analysis only, does not constitute trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
The US just finished its report, and BTC first surged to $85,000 😂
Following up on the previous message, two reports are out tonight:
ADP added 90,000 jobs, higher than the expected 70,000, showing employment is quite resilient.
Core PCE month-over-month is 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%; year-over-year 3.0%, also below the expected 3.3%. Inflation isn’t as hot as anticipated.
But the earlier mentioned "revision" did come: last month’s core PCE month-over-month was revised down from 0.2% to 0.1%. This time it’s better than expected, not lower than last month.
The crypto market has already rallied, BTC broke through $85,000, and the market has given its first reaction.
However, breaking through and holding are two different things; the first wave of gains doesn’t mean tonight’s rally is over.
A bold guess: if BTC can hold $85,000 tonight, it might touch $86,000 on the first day of the National Day holiday.
The holiday hasn’t started yet, but the bulls are already at work? 😂$BTC BTC surges to 85,000, tonight's data will set the direction
BTC pulls back to 85,000: Has the PCE expectation been traded in advance?
Key conclusion: After overselling, a strong rebound recovers 85,000, driven by technical correction plus positive PCE expectations. The mid-term adjustment structure has not fully reversed yet; the volume and 86,000 resistance after tonight's data release are critical.
1. Technical Analysis
1. Candlestick Pattern
The daily candle closed with a volume-increasing bullish candle, quickly rising from the low near 82,000. Short-term bullish momentum returns, but overall it remains within the correction framework after the 87,399 stage high. Currently defined as a rebound correction after a decline, not the start of a new main upward wave.
2. Indicator Signals
The SKDJ K value turns upward from the oversold area to 52.5, converging with the D value. After short-term bearish momentum is fully released, bullish recovery momentum is accumulating; however, the two lines have not formed a golden cross yet, and the mid-term downtrend has not been completely reversed. There is still a possibility of secondary pressure after the rebound.
3. Volume Verification
24-hour trading volume is 641 million USDT, significantly increased compared to the previous low-volume phase, indicating incremental funds entering to bottom-fish and support. However, volume has not yet reached the level of the previous rally, so the sustainability of the rebound requires further volume confirmation.
2. Key Price Levels
• Short-term resistance: 86,000 round number
• Mid-term strong resistance: 87,399 (previous high of this round; only a volume-supported break and hold can declare the adjustment over and restart the main rise)
• Short-term support: 84,000 (intraday breakout platform, now turned from resistance to support)
• Strong support: 82,000 (recent low in pullback; breaking below invalidates the rebound logic)
3. News and Subsequent Projection
The core of this rebound is the market's early speculation on the evening's US core PCE inflation decline, betting on rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, driving collective recovery of risk assets.
1. Positive outcome (inflation meets or is below expectations): rate cut expectations strengthen, rebound continues, likely to challenge the 86,000-87,000 range;
2. Negative outcome (inflation exceeds expectations): positive expectations quickly realized, market pressure and decline, likely to fall back below 84,000 and test 82,000 support.
⚠️Cryptocurrency is not legally protected domestically; market information is for sharing only and does not constitute investment advice #OKXNow See you in Singapore on October 6!
As an explorer deeply engaged in Web3 and AI computing power infrastructure, what I care about most is the deep integration of AI and on-chain finance.
Although the intersection of AI and Web3 is currently a hot topic, most discussions remain at the narrative level. AI technology can truly solve the three major pain points of on-chain transactions today: emotional trading by humans, the energy limitations of 24/7 monitoring, and the complexity of on-chain interaction thresholds. Through AI Agents and smart contracts, we can achieve 7x24-hour automated strategy execution and risk management, enabling funds to truly operate "intelligently."
What I look forward to most at this OKX Now conference is seeing real-world cases of how AI Agents seamlessly integrate with PayFi and decentralized computing power networks. AI should not just be a hype tool but should become the infrastructure of crypto finance.
Looking forward to exchanging ideas with all the Builders in Singapore and jointly welcoming the explosive growth period of AI+Web3! Bonk Guy's 1 million unrealized profit is not money already in hand
He spent $168,000 to buy 19 million $SI.
Now this batch of coins is worth $1.2 million.
Here's how the number is calculated:
168,000 divided by 19 million, the cost per coin is less than one cent.
At the moment it triggered:
The unrealized profit is on paper. He hasn't sold, so the price is still moving.
The 6x return is calculated by others based on the current price.
If he really sells, the price will be pushed down by his own sell orders.
Newcomers see the profit, but what they actually hold is an unsettled position.
Between the paper profit and the money in hand, there's a transaction that hasn't happened yet.
#特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI $BTC ZEC at $1460, do you dare to chase?
ZEC dropped from 1697 to 1360, and you called it a scam. Today Grayscale's split lands, price stuck at 1460 — is this the last chance to get in, or just a pump-and-dump by whales using the ETF?
You open Binance and see ZEC perpetual at 1460.
Feeling itchy, right?
30 days ago it was still at 800, now 1460, up 70%. You curse yourself for not buying at 800.
But when it fell from 1697 to 1360, you didn’t dare to catch the fall.
Now at 1460, you ask me if you can chase?
Bro, you’re not trading crypto.
You’re stuck in a cycle of chasing highs and selling lows, getting hit repeatedly.
First thing: today’s “good news” is not new fuel.
Grayscale’s ZEC trust split starts trading at the new price today. Registered on Sept 28, distributed on 29, split trading on 30.
Sounds like a big deal? Let me translate:
This is a liquidity event, not new subscriptions.
Fund size hit 900 million, holdings 3.5% of total supply. Much of the AUM growth is from price appreciation, not new money inflow.
In Europe, 21Shares ETP and Sweden’s Valour ETP are launching one after another, more channels open.
But short term, this is not new fuel.
ETF buys exposure, not privacy.
Institutions use transparent addresses, don’t hold shielded ZEC. Token capture and on-chain privacy are two separate lines. You buy the coin, not the story.
Second thing: NU7 upgrade won’t deliver today.
NU7 entered the window day, code target to be completed today. Testnet around Oct 6, go/no-go on Oct 20, mainnet target Nov 5: 25-second blocks, halving preserved, Sprout eliminated.
This is a mid-term catalyst.
But today, it won’t deliver.
If news comes tonight or tomorrow that "code not completed on time," expectations will be crushed first.
November’s promise can’t save September’s losses.
Third thing: 1460 is the upper-middle of the range, not confirmation of a main rise.
Remember the path:
Mid-September pulled from 1100 to 1335, then surged to 1500-1697.
1670-1697 rejected three times.
Then fell back to 1360, today rebounded to 1460.
What is 1460?
It’s the upper-middle of the range.
Not the bottom, not the top. It’s a multiple-choice question from the whales to the retail: chase or wait?
Bull vs bear, you decide:
On one side:
ETF channels open, Grayscale, 21Shares, Valour launching one after another
November NU7 upgrade, 25-second blocks + halving preserved
Total supply 21 million, scarcity narrative intact
Market cap 24 billion, top ten, privacy sector leader
On the other side:
Valuation already overstretched from 800 to 1697
ETF doesn’t hold shielded ZEC, token capture and privacy are separate
Regulatory shadow remains, exchanges tighten again, perpetuals get hit first
BTC weak below 83k, falling from 84.5k, risky assets hard to accelerate unilaterally
1670-1697 triple rejection, ceiling as hard as iron
Key position: 1460 stuck in the middle, knives both above and below.
Resistance above:
1460-1480: intraday highs, the price you see
1500-1540: zone lost on 28-29th
1580-1620: stronger supply
1670-1697: this round’s ceiling. No volume breakout above 1697, forget 2000
Support below:
1440: yesterday’s midline
1380-1360: Sept 29 low, structural lifeline
1290-1300: pre-September acceleration step
1180: look further down here
In short: holding 1360 still counts as a deep pullback in an uptrend; daily close below 1360 means short-term deep correction.
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Aggressive:
Light long positions near 1460 max, stop loss 1355. First target 1500, second 1540. Take half off at 1500.
Risk-reward is average here. Don’t heavy load or use high leverage.
Conservative:
Wait for 1360-1380 to consider long, stop loss 1288. Better entry 1290-1320.
If not reached, take small positions. Don’t rush.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if volume breaks and holds above 1540, with pullback not breaking 1500. Targets 1620, 1690.
Fake breakout, give up.
Bearish:
Weak rally at 1500-1540, light short on pullback, stop loss 1585, target 1360.
Don’t short heavily near 1360.
Position sizing:
Single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital, leverage recommended 3-5x.
Intraday 8-10% swings common, don’t bet your life.
Risk control priority (memorize):
Break below 1360 with volume, next targets 1290, 1180, reduce positions first.
BTC breaks 82600 and accelerates down, reduce ZEC positions accordingly.
If NU7 code delay or no-go on Oct 20, short-term expectations crushed first.
Final hard truth:
ZEC’s ETF and November upgrade stories remain, but 1670 has been rejected three times.
1697 rejected thrice, why do you think the fourth time will pass?
1460 can be used for range trading, not all-in for new highs.
Better to wait alive for 1360 break or 1540 hold than gamble high leverage at intraday highs for a fourth push.
Watch two things:
Can 1360 hold, and will NU7 code deliver on time.
Talk again if things change.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Increasingly realizing that having the right direction and not getting liquidated is important.
Last time, opened a long position on 8.4, the direction was right, but got liquidated.
Assuming no liquidation,
including this time,
the round trip would be a positive 230% return.
However,
history has no assumptions. Single Coin Contract Fluctuation
09-30 20:45—21:00 (Beijing Time)
$BTC price rise accompanied by increased positions: price +0.55%, open interest +1.50%; trading volume is 2.2 times the average of the previous hour, with 56.9% active buying.The rebound has reached the intraday resistance level, short positions can be entered as planned. The highest BTC rebound reached around 85500, ETH around 2740, short at 85000, short at 2720, both giving opportunities to get in, control your position size, enter now! #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $BTC $ETH