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The recent changes in the US 10-year Treasury yield have a detail more worth watching than the 47 basis points. Since August 31, the 10-year yield has risen by 47 basis points, of which 43 basis points came from the real yield, and the inflation breakeven rate only rose by 4 basis points. The 10-year real yield once rose to 2.95%, the highest since 2008. This means that the main driver of this round of yield increase is not that the market suddenly started worrying about inflation, but that investors are demanding higher real returns. Coincidentally, the crypto market has been rising during the same period. Since September, BTC has risen 9.3%, ETH has risen 2.7%, and Layer 2, RWA, and AI-related assets have performed even stronger. According to traditional logic, the higher the real yield, the more pressure assets that do not generate cash flow usually face. Because the real return provided by risk-free assets has increased, the risk premium required by capital also rises. But this time, both have appeared simultaneously for the moment. So when looking at the market now, you can't just focus on keywords like "rate cuts" or "liquidity." Real yields are rising, and BTC is also rising. What to watch next is which funds are offsetting the pressure brought by interest rates. > 数据截至 2026-10-13 00:00 UTC 已收盘的4小时K线。本文只记录策略分析、持仓思路与盘后复盘，不构成交易建议。 过去几天，市场从方向分化迅速转入高波动阶段。第三篇日志中的组合是三多四空；现在变成七多、三空、五个空仓。表面上看，多头数量重新占优，但这并不代表市场已经恢复稳定上涨。 真正值得复盘的是信号切换速度。BTC先由多转空，随后重新转多；DOGE在三根连续4小时K线上完成多、空、多切换；BCH刚确认空头，下一根K线又反手做多。高波动放大了突破，也放大了假突破，策略因此进入最考验执行纪律的阶段。 ## 本轮新变化：不是统一看多，而是逐个重新定价 ### ETH：空头交易结束，新多头尚在接受检验 ETH空头从 `2745.35` 开始，在 `2563.10` 出现正式反向信号后结束。这段价格路径沿空头方向运行约 `6.64%`，退出原因不是主观止盈，而是策略确认了相反结构。 反手后的多头目前并不顺利。最新收盘为 `2508.01`，较多头参考价低约 `2.15%`。ADX为 `26.46`，成交量达到20根均量的 `3.44` 倍，说明市场参与度很高，但高成交量同样After these recent drops, $BTC BTC has quickly pulled back, with two bottom tests on the 4-hour chart that didn't break the previous lows; even if they do break, a bullish divergence will form. However, the 3-day MACD death cross is present, so do not chase the highs. Once the trend reverses, the turnaround won't be easy. The current long-short ratio is 1.6, with many people bottom-fishing. Even if it stabilizes, the market will likely consolidate and grind the bottom repeatedly. Looking at the daily chart, the current price is 83,555. The short-term EMA5/10/20 lines are intertwined, indicating typical consolidation, and a turning point window is approaching. The KDJ is in a neutral zone, the MACD green bars remain, so bearish momentum hasn't fully dissipated. SAR resistance is at 85,260; until it breaks above, the overall trend remains weak. The 24-hour low hit 80,961 and quickly pulled back, with support below, but resistance at 84,348 and 85,260 above. Today's key range for shorting is 83,500 to 84,000, with a stop loss at 84,500 and a target of 80,800. CPI is about to be released, officials continue hawkish rhetoric, ETF funds keep flowing out, institutional demand weakens, and the market has repeatedly tested support levels, signaling weakness. Don't mistake the quick rebound for strength. $BTC has fallen below the 82,000 mark, currently trading around 81,975, with a 24-hour decline of about 2.15%. The intraday low hit 81,975, a recent low. ETH dropped to around 2,519, while altcoins suffered even heavier losses; BOME plummeted over 30%, and ENA, NEAR, and others fell more than 13%. Sentiment has cooled rapidly. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 56, down 12 points from yesterday, with a 7-day average of 62. Although still in the greed zone, it has sharply retreated from the year-high of 82 on August 26. Approximately $672 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network in 24 hours, with over 140,000 accounts liquidated. Long positions accounted for 87% of the total liquidation amount, and large-scale forced liquidations have further amplified downward momentum. The funding side remains under pressure; Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $65.4 million yesterday, with a cumulative net outflow of $451.8 million this month. BlackRock's IBIT was the only fund mover on the day. From a technical perspective, after losing the 82,000 support level, the first support below is at 81,000, where significant buy orders are concentrated. If this level is also lost, the price may seek support at the psychological 80,000 mark. The 82,500 to 83,000 range has turned from support into resistance; until it is reclaimed, any rebound is considered a weak recovery. On the macro front, the probability of the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes in October has risen to 78%-80%, while the chance of a hike in December remains above 70%. The September CPI data is about to be released; if inflation exceeds expectations, U.S. Treasury yields may face further sell-offs, suppressing risk asset performance. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Strong momentum can also change, don't use old answers to analyze the market $STRK I will now significantly lower short-term expectations. Around 0.0905, down about 21.8% in 24 hours, but still up about 73% in the past week. These are not conflicting numbers, but rather it rose a lot earlier and has recently retreated quickly. Those who bought earlier may still have profits, but recent buyers may face drawdowns; you can't explain everyone's experience with weekly gains alone. What is most needed now is for the decline to slow down first. If every rebound is very short and the price continues to move down, there is no sufficient reason to continue using the previous strong momentum judgment. Watch more, act less, and don't rush to treat the decline as an attraction. $W is still the most prominent in this group for now. Up about 35% in the last 24 hours, about 66% in the past week, with actual performance in the stage rise. I will continue to watch, but I want to see how it stops after a sharp rise. Being able to repeatedly trade at a higher level carries more weight than surging high and then retreating. A strong direction does not mean you can ignore drawdowns when buying. $NEAR still retains stage advantages. Up about 8.8% in the past week, about 142% in the past month, currently near 5.54. However, a large rise within the month also means expectations have been raised. Next, we need to see if it can continue to deliver new progress. Existing achievements can be recognized, but the space ahead still needs to be reassessed; you can't extrapolate based on past gains.BTC was suppressed by 84000 yesterday and pulled back, bottoming near 80900 before stopping the decline. The current price is around 83500. Today, pay attention to the daily K-line middle band resistance and the 4-hour upper band resistance. The hourly chart's upper bands have not yet opened upward or lifted; the view remains the same as yesterday: do not mistake a rebound for a reversal. The main strategy is to short on rallies, not to chase shorts! BTC short on rebound at 84500-85500, target 83000-81500-80500, stop loss at 86000 ETH short on rebound at 2580-2620, target 2530-2480-2400, stop loss at 2650 Personal opinion, for reference only! #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BTC $ETH Brother Maji's position is not something an ordinary person dares to play with Looking at the latest on-chain data, he is currently playing a tug-of-war between longs and shorts $BTC: 40x leverage shorting 243 bitcoins. Current unrealized profit is close to $260,000, and funding fees can still bring in over $50,000 This is his main profit driver; as long as Bitcoin doesn't suddenly surge in the opposite direction, the short position can continue to generate profits $ETH: 25x leverage longing over 8,700 Ethereum, entry price $2,546, currently unrealized loss exceeds $400,000 The direction is exactly opposite to the BTC short; if the market continues to weaken, the pressure on this long position will increase Also, 5x leverage shorting 230,000 $HYPE, unrealized loss as high as $4.86 million Entry price $63.9, liquidation price $106.6 Although the paper loss is severe, funding fees are coming in at about $1.02 million, which can somewhat buffer the pressure The core of this position set is making money on the BTC short, ETH long and HYPE short under pressure, and relying on funding fees to subsidize losses It looks like there are profits and losses, but in reality, it is testing whether the overall position can withstand market volatility But I think the most dangerous thing is not how much a single position loses, but the chain reaction under high leverage Once the market suddenly rallies or crashes unilaterally, the originally mutually restraining positions may also be pressured simultaneously Brother Maji dares to play like this, but that doesn't mean ordinary people can withstand it It's fine to watch whale operations, but copying the positions is another matter #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #俄美推进柴油供应合作，俄乌能源停火仍存分歧 Yesterday's prediction came true today. I said, "When Saylor sends an orange dot, there is a high probability of a buy announcement the next day." Today the announcement came: bought 250 $BTC (about 21.5 million USD), and simultaneously repurchased $STRC worth 192 million USD, raising holdings to 848,250. First, a correction to something I wrote yesterday: I wrote "total holdings 846,000" which was old data, actual holdings are 848,000. Here is the correction. But what’s really worth noting in this announcement is not "that they bought," but "how much they bought": · End of August: 4,603 · September 20: 950 · October 5: 334 · This time: 250 Four consecutive decreases. Moreover, this time they spent 192 million USD repurchasing STRC, but only 21.5 million on buying coins— repurchase amount is 9 times the amount spent on buying coins. The money hasn’t decreased, it’s just not spent on buying coins. My judgment: Strategy’s capital allocation is shifting from "issuing shares to buy coins" to "repurchasing its own preferred shares." The reason is easy to understand—MSTR’s dilution pressure has grown so large that the gains from buying coins for shareholders are being eaten up by dilution. So the "orange dot" signal needs to be reinterpreted: It still represents "there is action," but no longer means "large-scale accumulation."On the $ETH 5-minute chart, a long upper shadow Pin Bar just formed. The price pierced the previous high but then closed back down, which is quite unexpected. This morning, the market rebounded from around 2400, with minor highs and lows steadily rising, forming an upward structure. The previous candlestick showed a bullish engulfing pattern, then it surged up briefly but was pushed back, creating a false breakout. This indicates that the short-term buying momentum stalled here, and sell orders started to flood out at the high level, causing resistance for the bulls. Switching to the 4-hour chart, the current price near 2520 is right at the 4-hour resistance level. This area has been tested 8 times before without holding, and the 4-hour moving averages are still in a bearish alignment. After several hours of continuous rise, the bullish momentum has largely been exhausted, and volume hasn't kept up near this key resistance. Looking ahead, I am bearish. The 4-hour resistance is pressing down, the moving averages are bearish, and without volume, the price won't break through. This rebound will most likely fall back from here. $BTC $SOL #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ 10:30 AM. Sitting at my desk, pretending to work, while my palms are sweating and my eyes remain glued to the charts. My colleagues are discussing lunch plans, but I'm caught in the endless battle between Fed rate-cut expectations and ETF fund flows. Bulls and bears are both taking hits, and my nerves are completely shot. 😰 📈 $ETH — A Little Hope Amid the Chaos - Entry price: $2,533.92 - Current price: $2,477.85 - Leverage: 20x isolated - Unrealized PnL: +448.61 USDT - ROI: +44.26% This $ETH Boss Eleven VS Brother Maji! Two giant whales with completely opposite strategies, the market battle is intense ✅ Boss Eleven's historical closing records ETH perpetual | 30X full position long Opening average price 2630.03, closing average price 2620.29 Position 1883.179 coins, ultimately stopped out with a real loss of 21025U, return rate -12.73% Held for less than 2 minutes, quickly admitted mistake and cut position BTC perpetual | 30X full position short Opening average price 80798.6, closing average price 80739.7 Position 100 coins, small profit of 5159U, return rate +1.91% ZEC perpetual | 5X isolated short Opening average price 1466.89, position 2000 coins, pocketed profit of 7451U ✅ Brother Maji's current positions (for comparison) BTC 40X short continuously profitable ETH 25X long holding through drawdown Heavy short positions, bearing huge unrealized losses#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Options are so cheap that no one believes it, is Bitcoin about to make a move? Bitcoin is currently hovering around 84,000. But something feels off: option prices have dropped to a five-year low, with near-term implied volatility at only 33.5%, even lower than actual volatility. What does this mean? Simply put, the market thinks nothing big is coming, and no one is willing to pay big money for insurance. But according to 10x Research data, someone is holding long positions while secretly buying over $200 million in put options, with strike prices concentrated at 78,000 and 80,000. Experienced traders understand this move—it’s not bearish, it’s fear of a sudden black swan burying them. This kind of volatility being crushed to the floor has happened several times historically, and it was usually followed by big swings. The direction is uncertain, but the magnitude won’t be small. Now the price is stuck grinding between 82,000 and 85,000; whether it breaks up or down depends on which side cracks first. Objectively speaking, bearish factors are present: ETF funds are flowing out, and US Treasury yields have surged to 5.3%, pressuring risk assets. But the bulls haven’t fled; they’re just paying for peace of mind. This structure means moves can go either way, but one thing is certain: after being quiet for so long, a direction must be chosen.Gold aligns with my judgment, buying low and selling high between 3950 and 4250. It will consolidate here for a while before starting the main upward wave.$ETH: Short on rebound Strategy: · Wait for the price to rebound to the 2,450-2,460 range (EMA5 and previous small platform resistance area) and then enter short. · The target is first the previous low at 2,405; if broken effectively, then look at 2,380. Set stop loss above 2,500. Core basis: 1. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 1-hour level, EMA5/10/20 are diverging downward, price is suppressed below all moving averages, rebound highs are continuously decreasing, confirming a short-term weak pattern. 2. Market systemic decline: Figure 2 shows mainstream coins all sharply down ($SOL down 6%, FIL down 10%, $STRK down 29%), panic sentiment spreading in the market, lacking independent strength. 3. Whale chips heavy short squeeze: Figure 3 shows the average cost for longs at 2,551, currently deeply underwater (unrealized loss of 40.88 million U). Heavy trapped positions near 2,550 above, rebounds to this level will face heavy selling pressure from stop-loss liquidation, making shorting with favorable risk-reward ratio. #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 我觉得SOL现在最值得讨论的，是这波回调究竟会走到哪一步。 如果103美元附近能够出现明显承接，价格慢慢收复105美元，市场情绪就有机会缓过来。可要是反弹始终无力，连支撑都守不住，那短线资金可能还会继续观望。 SOL一直是市场里弹性比较大的币，行情好的时候冲得快，情绪转弱时回撤也不含糊。很多人容易在上涨时舍不得卖，等到下跌才开始慌，这种节奏最容易把主动权弄丢。 我现在更想看到的是明确的止跌信号，而不是单纯因为跌多了就去猜底。103美元能不能守住，105美元能不能重新站回去，这两个位置值得盯着看。 你们现在还看好SOL吗？103美元是机会，还是调整远没有结束？ #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 今天是丙午年、戊戌月、庚申日。庚金坐申金，金气有根，放到盘面更像“杀得快，反抽也快，但方向还没定”。玄学仅作传统文化趣味参考，交易还是看价格、量能和资金。 BTC午间约83344美元，日内区间81018—84231美元。早盘跌破82000后快速收回，说明81000附近暂时有人接，但上方压力并没有消失。 BTC：支撑82500—83000｜强支撑81000—81500｜压力83800—84200｜强压84500—85000。 今天先看83000能不能守住。站稳84200并完成回踩，才有机会继续修复到84500—85000；如果重新跌破82500，则要防81000再次被测试。真正需要警惕的还是80000失守，那会重新触发一轮止损和杠杆清算。 ETH午间约2511美元，日内区间2411—2575美元。反弹幅度不小，但整体仍弱于BTC。 ETH：支撑2480—2500｜强支撑2400—2420｜压力2550—2575｜强压2600—2650。 ETH重新站稳2550，才能继续看2600；如果2500再次失守，就要留意2420—2400。BTC企稳不代表全面Risk-on，ETH至少拿回2600Market Analysis and Operation Suggestions for October 13: BTC and ETH saw another waterfall drop after the US stock market opened last night, followed by a slight rebound. Within 24 hours, both long and short positions exploded, with longs dominating. BTC rebounded from around 81033 to 83466, and ETH from 2407 to 2517. Short-term MACD indicators all show bullish recovery with strong rebound momentum, but the trend reversal cannot yet be confirmed. Additionally, yesterday BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $65.4 million, and ETH outflowed $85.4 million. For BTC, watch resistance at 84000–84350 and support at 83000, 82500; for ETH, watch resistance at 2540–2560 and support at 2500, 2480. For intraday operations, blind chasing of highs is not recommended. Priority should be given to waiting for a pullback and stabilization before lightly going long; if volume breaks through resistance, one can follow the trend and add one long position. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Just finished reviewing the ETF data, almost thought I misread it, the gap between $BTC and $ETH is quite large BTC spot ETF still had a net inflow of $258 million last Friday (October 9), but looking further back, October 8 saw an outflow of 2.931 billion, October 7 an outflow of 5.67 billion, overall still mainly outflows, and on October 12, not a single cent came in ETH had a net outflow of 40.62 million on October 12, 227 million outflow on October 9, 282 million outflow on October 8, 597 million outflow on October 7, almost running every day, institutions are much more determined to withdraw ETH than BTC Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 82,580, ETH is struggling near 2,477, ETH's ETF has had continuous net outflows for several days, institutions are not coming back, and no one is stepping in on the market, both bulls and bears are waiting for tomorrow night's CPI Now it's not about the price, it's about when ETF funds will stop flowing out. As long as ETFs are still in net outflow, any rebound is an opportunity to escape, so I am temporarily watching Going forward, I will first look at the daily ETF data, if there is a net inflow, then consider a small position. The same goes if ETH falls below 2,450, wait for it to bottom out and ETF outflows to slow down $SOL #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ 10.13 Gold Day Session Strategy Sharing: 1. Early morning bottoming and rebound confirm one point: the early low at 4151 is today's watershed; breaking below continues weakness. 2. The upper resistance at 4200-4218 is the first pressure zone. If it can firmly hold above 4218-4230 again, the short-term trend leans more toward recovery. If the upward attack is weak, short-term focus can be on pressure-induced pullback opportunities. 3. 4150-4155 is an important short-term support. If it holds steady on a pullback, small positions can observe for a rebound. Additionally, the US dollar index has been diverging at a high level; if it falls from the high, gold may take the opportunity to rise. $XAU Operation Strategy: 1. The long position entered yesterday at 4170 has gained 27 points; reduce this position by 50% and continue holding. 2. Continue to participate in long positions on pullbacks to 4150-4160. 3. Enter short positions in batches at 4215-4225 / 4245-4255. $BTC #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Brothers, life is getting better, and we can all enjoy big meals now I didn't write content, didn't go long on Bitcoin $BTC, and before going long on $PONS recently, I didn't even dare to add an egg to my small noodles My friends always thought I liked eating small noodles, but actually it's because small noodles are the cheapest. I eat small noodles often, so if I don't eat them for a few days, I start to miss them. But actually, big meals taste better! 7 dishes, less than 12u, I wonder if the boss can really make a profit?"The Illusion of a Rebound" The $ETH over the weekend was like a trading hall with the lights off—thin depth, a few bullish candles lighting up the sentiment. After two days of rebound, the bulls immediately shouted a bull return, as if forgetting that liquidity is the oxygen of the market. But before the U.S. stock market officially opened pre-market, the crypto circle collectively weakened first—this is just a rehearsal; if it really crashes during the session, it will likely trigger another round of thunderous deleveraging. The retail investor script is never new: afraid of missing out when prices rise, blaming the market when prices fall, chasing longs and opening positions aggressively when emotions run high. Looking at the real account, there's a floating loss of two hundred, yet they still say "technical correction." On the other side, the rebound becomes a gift for those adding shorts. The more you resist, the more they increase positions; the more you go long, the more they complain the opposing positions are insufficient. No pressure, just one sentence: Can the bulls hold? Keep increasing positions. The market never rewards loud voices, only liquidity and discipline. The weekend rebound may not be a bull return, it could just be shorts temporarily stepping aside. When the U.S. stock market bell rings, the market will reveal who is swimming naked. Don't treat the rebound as faith, don't treat sentiment as position. $ETH $BTC #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 整体CPI环比从0.4%飙到0.6%，五个月最大涨幅。油价干到110美元，布伦特从胡塞武装袭击利雅得机场那天就没消停过。 听起来很吓人？ 别急。彭博、德银、三菱日联口径高度一致：“油价上涨没有形成全面通胀，看核心CPI就行。” 德意志银行已经把核心CPI环比预期压到0.16%，全华尔街最低。摩根士丹利给的最高预测也就0.21%。机构预测中值——0.21%。 整体0.58%，核心0.21%。冰火两重天。 叙事已经提前写好了：能源是噪音，核心才是信号。美联储有空间保持耐心。 这个逻辑没毛病。但它也是明晚最大的陷阱。 三种偏离，三种剧本 核心CPI环比偏离0.2%的方向，决定接下来两周所有风险资产的命运。 0.2%兑现——美联储“不急”，不是“停止”。10月加息概率现在只有20%左右，12月还在70%以上。通胀低于目标已经65个月了，五年的账没算清，市场不会因为你一个月的数据好就翻篇。 0.3%——重新争论。 核心没下来，通胀比想象的更有韧性。10月加息概率从20%往上跳，BTC刚在80000附近找到的支撑又要被测试。 0.4%——直接重新定价。 市场现在对10月加息的定价只有20%，如果On October 12, the US spot $ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $85.4 million, marking the 10th consecutive trading day of net outflows. Ajian suggests that friends holding ETH should at least re-examine their original reasons for holding before making any moves. Is the ETF continuously bringing incremental buying? Or is it long-term usage demand? You can't simply replace data with vision. Positions can remain unchanged for now, but the reasons for buying cannot remain outdated forever #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows; is institutional demand weakening? BTC and ETH spot ETFs both recorded net outflows, which is a signal worth noting but should not be directly equated with large-scale long-term institutional exits. Simultaneous redemptions indicate that marginal funds willing to increase allocations have decreased, reflecting a short-term decline in risk appetite. The core underlying cause remains the repeated expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and high U.S. Treasury yields, which suppress all high-beta risk assets. Many short-term allocation, CTA, and arbitrage funds choose to take profits and reduce risk amid rising macro uncertainty. This is a cross-asset risk-off behavior rather than a collective bearish stance from long-term strategic funds. Key distinction: weakening marginal demand ≠ disappearance of long-term demand. If outflows occur only on a single day or short term, it is more of a portfolio adjustment; only continuous multi-day, large-scale outflows represent stronger bearish signals, making the market lose incremental support and shift to stock competition, making rebounds more difficult. Subsequent validation criteria: observe whether outflows can quickly narrow and return to net inflows. If outflows persist, each rebound is easily suppressed by ETF selling pressure; only when data recovers does it indicate renewed institutional allocation willingness. This indicator is suitable as a reference for sentiment and capital flow but should not be used alone to predict price movements. $BTC $ETH $ZEC About $18.58 million worth of long positions in HYPE were liquidated in the past 24 hours, but the last 4 hours have been tougher for shorts: about $117,000 of short positions were liquidated, while longs only $615. From 13:05 to 13:06 on October 13 (Beijing time), this contrast appeared in the CoinGlass sub-table. At the same time, ZEC saw about $21.38 million of long liquidations in the past 24 hours; in the last 4 hours, longs were about $62,200 and shorts $900,200. ETH showed a similar pattern: 24-hour long liquidations around $145 million, with the last 4 hours showing $502,500 longs and $21.15 million shorts. The 4-hour data is included within the 24-hour data, so the two figures should not be added together. The side that lost more over the full day may be opposite to the side currently being squeezed; focusing only on the full-day "long liquidations" headline can overlook short-term short pressure. This statistic reflects the size of forcibly liquidated contracts, not net account losses. Source: Original CoinGlass sub-table, covering platform statistics but not the entire market; the chart was captured at the above time. The three coins correspond to actual sub-items, with related spot market navigation below. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $HYPE $ZEC $ETH Big Brother Maji gave back $12.3 million in profits, with only $290,000 left in the account $ETH fell 4% today, and Big Brother Maji almost entirely gave back the $12.3 million profit accumulated from rolling long positions starting at $1900, leaving only $290,000 in the account. He currently still holds 3,500 ETH long positions. If $ETH drops about $30 more to $2393, the remaining funds face the risk of being wiped out.ARB/USDT Perpetual Daily Level --> Currently operating in a rebound market; if the resistance level cannot be surpassed, short positions can be opened. My view: The price peaked and pulled back at 0.25569, currently oscillating within the high-level purple central zone. The overall major trend has shifted from a one-sided rise to high-level consolidation, with short-term pressure. A short can be attempted when the rebound hits the 0.198 resistance zone, targeting the 0.174 support low, with a stop loss set above 0.206. Once the price stabilizes above this level, the bearish idea is invalidated. Chan Theory Structure: Starting from the low of 0.07040, a daily-level main upward wave was initiated, rising steadily to a high of 0.25569; after the peak, a purple daily central zone was formed on the chart. The current market is within this central oscillation range. The pullback from the high has not yet broken downward out of the central zone, representing a consolidation after the rise, not yet a full transition to a one-sided downtrend. Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation: The candlestick at the 0.25569 peak showed a large volume phase, indicating concentrated capital taking profits and exiting; after entering the central oscillation, each rebound's volume gradually decreases, the bullish buying strength continues to weaken, while the selling pressure volume on down candles has increased, showing a gradual exhaustion of bullish momentum. Core observation: Focus on the 0.198 resistance level; if the rebound stalls here with insufficient volume, it is an opportunity to short; if volume breaks out above 0.206, it indicates renewed bullish strength and a breakout upward from the central oscillation, and the short position idea should be abandoned.$BOME secured profits, $BTC along with the overall market shows signs of stopping the decline, likely to fluctuate between 81,000 and 84,000 recently. Under these circumstances, bome is also very likely bottoming out. Anyway, it still feels like until the PPI and CPI data are released, crypto won't have a clear direction. Brothers trading $BTC and Ethereum these days should have a feeling: it neither falls nor rises decisively. When you trade the trend, it gives you oscillations; when you try to trade the oscillation waves, it breaks down or up in minutes! So the best approach is to stop trading for now, wait for the data to come out, and then start trading when things are clearer! #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Data Week Is Here: What Will Decide Crypto’s Next Move? ⏳ $BTC at 83,406, $ETH at 2,550, $SOL at 111, and $XAUT at 4,171. The market feels frozen, as traders wait for the next major catalyst. ⏸️ Three key forces could determine the next direction: 🌍 Geopolitics and Oil Prices: Disruptions in the Middle East could push energy prices higher and reignite inflation concerns. Gold may benefit from safe-haven demand, but a stronger dollar and rising real yields could also weigh on its price. Safe-刺客社区UEX 日报｜油价冲高，纳指回落，Strategy还在买 我是刺哥，今天这盘面，油价是主角。 美股10月12日分化，道指涨0.38%，标普跌0.06%，纳指跌0.44%。科技七巨头四涨三跌，Meta因为发布新AI模型涨了3.38%，微软涨1.14%，英伟达跌1.29%。Meta这波靠Muse Wonder系列模型撑住了，AI竞争已经从算力往智能体和商业化延伸。 最大的变量是油价。沙特机场遇袭，中东供应风险又往上顶，布伦特涨到106.65美元，近一个月高位。美元指数也创了18个月新高，克利夫兰联储主席Hammack强调要维持限制性政策。高油价加高利率，风险资产两头受气。 加密这边，BTC在82527附近，24小时跌1.57%。ETH在2515，跌0.43%。总市值2.88万亿，24小时变动约0.7%。今天清算地图数据没拿到，所以不瞎猜清算区在哪。 Strategy还在买。10月5日到11日期间增持250枚BTC，均价约86194美元，总持仓升到848250枚，累计成本约640亿，平均成本75444。现价82399，比成本高约9.22%。注意，这周只买了250枚，规模不大，不能单凭Recently, the barber downstairs was all talking about this. At first, I just listened for fun. Later, on a whim, I took a few hundred bucks to test the waters. The first purchase was $BTC. After buying, it just moved sideways and then dropped. It dropped so much that I couldn't even eat properly. A few days later, I tried $ETH. There’s really a lot going on there. The fees are also really high. One wrong click and the whole transaction is wasted. Then I heard $SOL is fast. I transferred some small change to roam around on the chain. It’s really fast. But the traps are dense too. Some projects were there in the morning and gone by the evening. After losing a few times, I gradually calmed down. I don’t chase hot topics. I don’t follow pump calls. I don’t touch what I don’t understand. I write down my private keys myself. I don’t give them to anyone who asks. I don’t click on unknown links. No matter how tempting the airdrop is, I don’t connect my wallet recklessly. Now I only hold money I’m okay losing. Just leave it be. When it rises, I don’t get cocky. When it falls, I don’t panic. There are many opportunities in this field. But there are even more traps. Living long is more important than making a quick profit. Don’t borrow money. Don’t get carried away. Don’t believe in guaranteed profits. Leave the rest to time#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 Order Book Strength Ranking 5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book After amplifying orders for BLUR and RSR, both buy and sell slippage increased significantly, with BLUR showing the highest simulated buy/sell slippage at the 100,000 scale. $BLUR simulated buy/sell slippage at 10,000 scale is 0.16%/0.16%, and at 100,000 scale is 0.99%/1.00%. $RSR simulated buy/sell slippage at 10,000 scale is 0.15%/0.16%, and at 100,000 scale is 0.66%/0.67%. $W large buy/sell costs both rise, while small sell orders remain almost unchanged. Simulated buy/sell slippage at 100,000 scale increased from 0.38%/0.27% to 0.43%/0.42%. Selling at 10,000 scale remains about 0.09%. $BTC 82,300美元附近，24小时跌1.5%左右，从84,300美元高点回落，下方81,000美元附近是支撑。 $ETH 2,460美元附近，24小时跌3%左右，反弹力度偏弱，下方2,400美元附近先看着。 $ZEC 1,266美元附近，波动更大，下方1,220美元附近是支撑。 市场情绪方面，贪婪指数还在69，但更多是空头被扫上去的轧空，不是真有人在大举进场。 ETF资金还在流出，机构态度谨慎。 散户基本都在观望，不敢重仓，多空来回扫单，操作难度很大。 后续看，今天白天大概率继续震荡磨盘。明天CPI数据出来前，行情更容易反复，别急着当反转。 这轮反弹更像是下跌后的修复震荡，不是真反转。半夜插针如果能接到支撑位，盈亏比还算可以；接不到也别硬追，等明天CPI数据出来再看方向。有实际落地、能产生收益的标的，才是真正值得多看的。 ⚠️个人盘面复盘，不构成投资建议 Where is Bitcoin headed next? Check the liquidation map, Day 2 Compared to yesterday: Price 84,142 → 82,784 (-1.6%) Yesterday I said $BTC would go up, but I was wrong. Cumulative record: 0 right, 1 wrong. 1. Today's data Below, the cumulative long liquidation intensity is $1.1 billion; above, the cumulative short liquidation intensity is $2 billion. 2. Key price levels to watch 82,000: Lower edge of the dense long position area; breaking below here will accelerate the first wave of forced liquidations. 79,000: The densest segment of long positions; the buffer starts to thin from here. 84,500: The first cluster of short positions; one of the highest bars on the entire chart. 85,000: The second cluster of short positions; breaking through here will cause the most intense squeeze. 3. Possible trends Upward: Standing above 83,332 starts squeezing short positions; covering shorts is itself buying → 84,449 → 85,013 → 86,141 with almost no shorts above, resistance is very thin. Downward: Breaking below 82,000 → 79,467, the densest long position area → once a chain of forced liquidations opens, the buffer is very thin. 4. My judgment Currently, the cumulative short liquidation intensity reaches $2 billion, while longs are only $1 billion. Data-wise, it's easier to move toward the direction with the least resistance. I think it will rise to $90,000, but current data doesn't allow it yet; it will still oscillate between 81,000 and 85,000 with no clear trend. What do you think?Unichain has been "sent away," what remains of the $UNI story? On October 29, Uniswap Labs handed over its own child Unichain to Optimism. This self-owned L2, which was only set to launch in 2025, survived just over a year before being hastily transferred. The announcement was understated, but the strategic contraction is unmistakable—Uniswap is refocusing on its core business. For UNI holders, this is not good news. The daily trading volume of the Uniswap main protocol has always been strong, but the "fee switch" sword hanging over it has been discussed for years without being implemented. Token holders watch the protocol's cash flow surge daily, yet they can't get a penny of that cash flow themselves. Unichain was once the only story to tell: a self-built chain, self-controlled distribution, and the possibility of slicing the pie again in the future. Now that story has been torn apart. What remains? Trading volume data, plus the hope that "the switch will be turned on someday." But relying on hope alone, seven dollars might hold, but going higher is tough. So UNI's market performance is always in waves—pulsed rallies followed by silence. The real winning move isn't in on-chain trading volume but in how regulators classify the fee switch. Until then, holding a light position isn't too painful, but going heavy and waiting for a rebound risks burning yourself out. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Don't be quick to dismiss it with a "the market maker is shaking out positions"—this move in RSR feels more like a punishment for everyone rushing to take sides. Have you noticed that recently, some coins, whether going long or short, end up being scooped up by seemingly the same hand? Watching RSR these past few days, the most direct impression is: it's not following a trend, but rather creating a volatility tax. Buy spot, and the price gets pushed down; open a short contract, and the funding rate slowly eats away at you. On the surface, it looks like a directional issue, but the market is actually trading patience and position costs. Many think that for these small-cap old coins, all it takes is to wait for a pump, but they overlook that when the narrative lacks new inflows and liquidity is thin, volatility itself becomes a harvesting tool. Every sharp pump and dump you see may not be capital choosing a direction, but just shallow depth where a few orders can disrupt sentiment. Looking at the bigger picture, this is actually a risk appetite thermometer. If BTC and ETH hold steady and capital is willing to spread into high-beta altcoins, oversold old coins like RSR will have pulse opportunities because their chips are light, the cost to pump is low, and the narrative still exists. But if the market enters a phase of consolidation and contraction, these kinds of assets will be the first to lose attention—long positions get worn down by slow declines, shorts get eaten by funding fees, leaving only high turnover and low confidence. So right now, RSR feels more like a product of a volatility phase, not a trend phase winner. There is also a bullish path: once real inflows appear, such as ecosystem progress, exchange listings expectations, or BTC leading a general altcoin recovery, RSR's low-position chips will become very light, and the rebound speed might be so fast it catches people off guard. But XRP BOUNCES, BUT STRUCTURE STILL NEEDS PROOF I'm watching $XRP at 1.3688 (+1.98%) after pulling back from 1.6583. The 7D is -8.56%, yet 90D remains +22.94%. One green daily candle isn't a trend. I prefer patience over chasing relief. Do you trade bounces or wait for confirmation?Oversold does not mean someone is buying $BTC dropped to 82678, down 1.23% in 24 hours. RSI6 is only 7.6; the smaller this number, the sharper the drop. What others think: The drop is so severe, it's oversold, it should rebound. This number only indicates that the recent few candlesticks are almost all bearish. What I think: Oversold is caused by past selling, not future buying. It does not generate a buy order, it only records how much has been sold. What really matters is who is absorbing it. A 15-minute break below all moving averages means the sell orders have been eaten through. With no support below, a sharp drop just means a slower decline. Stop-loss orders placed below 82600 have already been cleared. #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #Strategy增持放缓，企业财库策略生变？ #代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？ $BTC I'm back, brothers, I'm back Went long on sol at 109 last night Ten times leverage Was happily going to sleep Dreaming of big bullish candles But unfortunately, the dream was the opposite Woke up at seven in the morning and checked the market My remaining drowsiness was scared away immediately Sol dropped 8% in over ten hours Damn, almost cried Really, the lowest this morning dropped to 101 I liquidated at 98 This really made me feel like life was meaningless Asked friends and AI, both suggested I cut losses Almost did cut losses In the end, I just couldn't bear it and gave up a bit Then it went back up later Now it's almost back to the entry point This storm is about to end Hope it goes smoothly When I first started in crypto, I envied others making so much Now I think, isn't this just paying a mental loss fee? Those who shorted sol last night really had a blast 😂 When will I get to enjoy it! $BTC $ETH $SOL #September CPI announcement coming soon, Harker says further rate hikes still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? Recently, the delivery guys in my neighborhood have been talking about this a lot. At first, I felt it was pretty far from me. But later, I couldn't resist and threw in a few hundred bucks to try. My first purchase was $BTC. Right after buying, it dropped. It dropped so much that I even bought fewer drinks. Then I tried $ETH. There are many things on the chain, and the fees are expensive. One operation wastes half a day. Later, I heard $SOL is fast, so I transferred a small amount to play. It really is fast, but the traps are real too. Some projects disappear just like that. After losing a few times, I learned my lesson: Don't chase hot topics, Don't follow tips blindly, Don't touch what you don't understand. Write down your private keys yourself, Don't give them to anyone who asks, Don't click on unknown links, No matter how tempting the airdrop is, don't connect your wallet recklessly. Now I only hold money I can afford to lose. Just leave it there. When it rises, stay grounded. When it falls, don't panic. There are many opportunities in this field, but even more traps. Living long is more important than making a quick profit. Don't borrow money. Don't get carried away. Don't believe in guaranteed profits. Leave the rest to time#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 Gold $XAU has really been tormenting both bulls and bears these past couple of days😇 It just surged to 4222 earlier, but before it could hold above 4200, it was hammered all the way down, even touching 4156 early this morning I originally thought it would continue downward, but then funds stepped in at the low, quickly pulling it back near 4190 The US dollar is still hovering at a high level, Fed officials keep emphasizing inflation risks, and with US CPI due Wednesday, life is indeed tough for gold bulls But the problem is, after all the bear pressure, they still haven't truly broken through this support Now I’m less inclined to chase shorts Let’s first see if 4200 can be reclaimed; if it still can’t break above, this rebound will probably struggle for a while longer Really hope Wednesday’s data gives us a clear direction😂 #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 @OKX星球 The AI chain has started shorting on rallies; there is currently no suitable entry point. At most, just open a small base position. Then open a position in gold, which also counts as a disguised short on US dollar assets and has been adjusting for some time. It hasn't dropped below 4000, partly due to risk-off sentiment. So either choose BTC or gold. Therefore, hold $ZEC and open a position in $XAU. Since gold's volatility is not large, reduce the capital allocation; this leverage will be set to 5. If it doesn't break below 4000, don't move for now. Wait for a good opportunity in the AI chain, then reallocate positions. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Lummis fired another shot. This time it was aimed at the Democrats. She said you yourselves requested a seat in the CFTC to represent retail investors, it was clearly written in the CLARITY Act, yet you turned around and voted against it. I looked at it for a while and felt it was quite absurd. It's like you ordered a dish, it was served, and you say you don't want to eat it. For those of us who hold crypto as a long-term position, this is actually nothing new. The people in Washington argue back and forth, but the core issue has never been about protecting retail investors; it's about who controls this territory. Today they argue about the CFTC, tomorrow about the SEC, and the day after they change the name and keep arguing. The actual implemented rules always lag behind the news by half a beat. So this news basically has no short-term impact, and emotionally it’s even a bit negative—it gives the impression that regulation is still far off. But looking at it from another angle, at least it shows this matter is still on the table, not thrown into a drawer. What do you think, will this repeated tug-of-war eventually produce a result, or will it just drag on until no one talks about it anymore? #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #Strategy增持放缓，企业财库策略生变？ #代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？ $HYPE $XAU Gold has reached 4200, can this wave continue to be profitable? Brothers, gold has already approached around 4200, not far from the first target we mentioned earlier! What to do next, Old K will get straight to the point! First, the funds buying gold have not stopped! The Central Bank of Congo plans to increase its gold reserves from 3 tons to 5 tons by the end of the year. Global central banks continue to increase gold holdings, essentially to diversify risk and optimize reserve structure. Additionally, gold ETF holdings increased by 2.281 tons, institutional funds are still worth watching, and the medium- to long-term logic for gold remains! Second, the market has already started to offer opportunities! Gold previously hit a low near 4156, then quickly pulled back, indicating funds are supporting the downside. After a sharp drop, a rebound appeared, and the 15-minute chart is gradually stabilizing, showing signs of short-term bulls gaining strength! What’s the next move? Keep watching for a pullback opportunity near 4160; consider going long once it stabilizes. 4200 is the key level right now; if it breaks through and holds effectively, the next target is 4230! It’s already near 4200; if you haven’t entered yet, don’t rush to chase. If you’re already in, keep a close eye on the key levels! Old K is optimistic about the subsequent rebound but won’t lose his rhythm chasing the market. When the market comes, seize it; if the position isn’t right, wait! In trading, it’s not about who rushes faster but who can hold onto the profits they should take! #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BTC BTC goes against the weakening trend of tech stocks. BTC recovers after a decline, contrary to Korean chip stocks and Nasdaq futures ahead of US CPI data. The movement may indicate that BTC is temporarily decoupling from risk assets. OKX data: BTC 83,437.00 USDT, -0.82% in 24 hours, volume 583.1M USDT. Do you think BTC can maintain this independent momentum? Not investment advice. DYOR. #SepCPIHikeWatch A little butterfly felt that the colors on its body were not as beautiful as those of its companions, so it asked God to help change its colors. God granted its request and gave it the right to freely choose its colors. Pointing to the colorful flowers, God said to the little butterfly, "Whatever color you like, just 'roll' on the flowers of that color, and then you will become that color." The little butterfly was overjoyed and first 'rolled' on the red flowers, then it didn't want to give up the blue flowers. So it 'rolled' on the blue flowers as well, then it thought the yellow flowers were beautiful. In this way, it 'rolled' on all the flowers, and in the end, it became a black butterfly. It immediately wept bitterly, unable to accept that it had become the ugliest colored butterfly. People's suffering often does not come from having no choices, but from having too many choices and being at a loss. Choice is a trade-off between pros and cons; there is no perfect choice in this world, otherwise it wouldn't be called a choice. When traders face many distinctive trading methods, they usually cannot make a suitable trade-off for themselves. It seems that every method has times when it makes a profit, and also times when it causes losses. At this point, traders may choose to make no choice at all, hoping to gain the advantages of all methods. You can choose one color, but if you absorb all the colors, the result can only be black, which is no color at all! In the process of stacking trading methods, not only are all the advantages of the methods stacked, but also all their disadvantages are stacked.Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the September CPI will be released, which is the most important reference before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28. Institutions expect that rising energy prices may push the overall CPI year-on-year from 3.4% to 3.7%, but the core CPI month-on-month growth rate may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. This combination is very critical: overall inflation is driven up by oil prices, but core inflation is cooling down. If the core CPI really slows, it indicates that price pressures have not spread, and the market will strengthen expectations for a pause in rate hikes. However, officials are not easing. Cleveland Fed President Harker clearly stated on October 12 that inflation pressures remain broad and support further rate hikes. CME data shows the market expects about a 79.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October. There is a large divergence between hawkish officials and market pause expectations. This divergence is the source of volatility tomorrow night. If the overall CPI is relatively hot but core cools, the market will lean toward pause expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will fall back, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 83,500 to 84,500. If both overall and core exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again, BTC will be under pressure, with support at 81,500 to 82,000, and if broken, look to 80,000. BTC is now near 82,000, up 0.8%. Many defenders are stacked near 80,000, so this position has short-term support. But the direction is not yet chosen; before the data is released tomorrow night, do not bet heavily. $ZEC $BTC $ETH 。#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 ✅ Closed $TIA long position 20x Entry: 0.5102 → Exit: 0.6000 Result: +350% ROE I post every entry and exit, whether profit or loss. Do you currently hold $TIA? Not investment advice. #OKXTraderVoices On October 12, Strategy announced the purchase of an additional 250 BTC, while also repurchasing approximately $192 million in STRC preferred shares. The company also disclosed that from October 5 to 11, it used $500,000 in cash to buy Bitcoin. My interpretation: This time it's not just "buying more coins" but also adjusting the financing structure. Institutional fund arrangements differ from personal accounts, so don't take the increase announcement as a direct signal to buy for yourself. #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? $BTC $ETH 🚨 【Massive Institutional Withdrawal】BTC/ETH spot ETFs lost $1.2 billion in a single week, how long can this hollow rebound last? Dual capital drain: From October 5 to 9, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $679 million (ending a previous three-week streak of net inflows); the ETH spot ETF had outflows of $542 million during the same period, marking the largest single-week outflow since January and recording nine consecutive trading days of net outflows; combined, the two saw a massive $1.221 billion drained in one week. Price-volume divergence risk: Against the backdrop of institutional heavy cash withdrawals, the market price once weakly rebounded against the trend, forming a typical "capital exit vs. price illusion" divergence pattern. ETH’s performance was significantly weaker than BTC’s, reflecting that institutions are accelerating their risk aversion toward highly elastic assets. Market outlook: The large-scale withdrawal before the release of key CPI data essentially represents smart money’s defensive hedge against macro interest rate hikes and persistent inflation. The weak pullback without spot ETF capital support has no defense; before the flow turns back to net inflows, blind left-side bets on a reversal are strictly prohibited. (Personal review opinion, not investment advice. There are countless trading rules, preserving principal is the first!)
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