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Officials call for rate hikes, but the market just doesn't buy it! Tomorrow's CPI release will show who's right
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM sharp, the September CPI will be announced. The most interesting thing now isn't the data itself, but rather—on one side, Fed officials hawkishly say "we still need to raise rates," while on the other side, the market votes with real money saying "you dare to raise?"
Cleveland Fed President Mester just dropped a statement yesterday: inflation is still hot, so rate hikes will continue without question. But CME data slapped that in the face: the probability of holding steady in October has shot up to 79.5%.
In other words: officials say "I think we should raise," the market says "I bet you won't." Both sides are arguing fiercely, just waiting for tomorrow's CPI to be the judge.
Institutions are also being quite sneaky in their forecasts: overall CPI might jump from 3.4% to 3.7% due to rising oil prices, which sounds scary. But core CPI month-over-month might actually drop from 0.3% to 0.2%—basically "scary on the surface, cooling underneath." This kind of data is neither clearly up nor down; how to interpret it depends entirely on investor sentiment.
As for me, I've already unloaded my leverage. Betting heavily on direction at this critical moment is like crossing the street blindfolded. You think the data will be mild, but it surprises on the upside; you think a bombshell is coming, but it meets expectations. Either way, you're right only half the time, so better to sit on the sidelines and watch.
Honestly, every CPI release in recent months has felt like New Year's Eve, with everyone glued to their screens waiting for the announcement. And the result? Prices neither rise much nor fall much—just a lot of volatility. The real money is never made by betting on the data, but by acting after the dust settles.
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM, the whole nation will be watching the big show start on time. I've got my little stool ready, just waiting to see which side this CPI will support—whether it props up Mester or smacks him hard in the face.
Three takeaways I've figured out:
1. Officials can talk tough all they want, but don't take it too seriously. The market's real-money odds are more reliable than any speech.
2. Don't bet your net worth before the data is out. An 80% probability sounds safe, but the 20% surprise is what really kills.
3. Being a bit slow to react won't lose you big money; betting on the wrong direction will. Instead of nervously shaking, better to wait for the results before making a move. Short sellers were "reverse liquidated," with BTC and ETH as the main battlegrounds
In the past 24 hours, the liquidation scale has clearly tilted toward the short side. BTC total liquidations reached $52.5 million, with shorts accounting for $42.71 million, over 80%; ETH total liquidations were $53.78 million, with shorts at $42.42 million, nearly 80%. On a shorter timeframe, ETH's 12-hour short liquidations hit $18.63 million, surpassing BTC's $9.67 million, making it the fiercest battleground in this round of "short sweeps." Combined, shorts were wiped out by over $85 million.
XRP's volume is small, with 24-hour liquidations at $2.07 million, shorts at $1.49 million, still biased toward the short side. Although the absolute value is limited, the structure indicates this is not a single-coin anomaly but a concentrated effort to squeeze out short positions in the market.
The problem follows: intensive short liquidations often bring passive buying, driving price pulses upward. But is this kind of rise a true reversal or a liquidity hunt-induced bull trap? If the bulls cannot continue to absorb volume after the liquidation peak, the risk of a short-term pullback remains. In the next few hours, whether BTC and ETH can hold the dense liquidation zones will determine if this round marks a trend start or just another trap.Thanks to my fellow players for the concern. If I can break even before this evening, I will definitely treat myself to a pork knuckle rice meal!
Good afternoon, brothers, October 13th, 12:30.
The market finally pulled back a bit this morning, and the floating losses on my three deeply trapped long positions have finally narrowed, temporarily out of ICU.
I saw a message from a fellow player this morning: "Whether you hold or not doesn't matter, if you hold on, you deserve a bowl of pork knuckle rice." That hit me hard! To get into the crypto circle, I drank plain water in the morning, ate fast food at noon, and usually just steamed buns with pickled vegetables.
If I can really hold on today, I must grit my teeth and add a pork knuckle rice dinner!
Regarding operations: I closed my $CL short position this morning. Although the direction was right, the funding rate was too high, which cost me 20% of my profits. Such low liquidity tokens are not worth holding; better to run first.
The current strategy remains unchanged: hold tight and wait for the CPI! As long as tomorrow night’s CPI surprises on the downside and inflation cools, short covering will give me a window to escape. Holding positions is not reckless; it’s waiting for the data to land before deciding life or death.
If you successfully hold your positions, what will you reward yourself with?
Feel free to share.
I think pork knuckle rice is a good choice, Longjiang pork knuckle rice!
$BTC $ETH - Upper resistance: 2,566 (MA10) and 2,578 high point, above that is the dense moving average zone of 2,610-2,626
- Lower support: 2,480-2,500, followed by the low point at 2,407
- Holding above 2,500, the rebound is likely to continue; if it falls back below 2,480, the rebound is considered a failure
🧠 Midday insights
1. Yesterday mentioned that oversold conditions would lead to a rebound, which was confirmed today, but be more cautious at resistance levels during the rebound and avoid chasing the rally
2. The search bar hotspot mentions the upcoming September CPI release, with Federal Reserve officials stating further rate hikes are needed, causing potential volatility around the data. Additionally, Tom Lee warned that the sharp drop in the South Korean stock market might bring short-term shocks to the crypto market, so watch out for a pullback this afternoon
3. Manage risk first during the rebound, and don’t increase your position size just because prices have risen
⚠️ The above is only a personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Contract trading carries very high risk, so please control your position size!XDP is indeed the hottest on Base today, with trading volume surging to over 100 million dollars, while the market cap is only a bit over 20 million. This ratio looks somewhat absurd.
From what I see, it’s essentially something built around xRP yields. After the token was issued on Base, it got hyped up.
Trading is very active, with buying and selling roughly balanced, but the pool liquidity is only about two million. This volume can easily crash the price badly at any time.
From my perspective, it seems more like short-term funds chasing hotspots on Base rather than having deep fundamental support.
The hype is understandable, but if you really want to get in, you have to weigh the risks yourself. Don’t just get carried away by the trading volume. ￥￥￥$XDP ARB đang yếu hơn BTC và ETH trong dữ liệu cập nhật. Tin tích cực của hệ sinh thái gồm các tích hợp liên quan đến xStocks và stablecoin USDG; tuy nhiên, tin tốt về mạng lưới không tự động tạo lực mua cho token ARB.  Kịch bản hồi: Giữ được vùng đáy ngày gần 0,184 USD và vượt lại 0,20 USD. Kịch bản giảm: Mất đáy gần 0,184 USD, mở ra rủi ro tiếp tục dò vùng giá thấp hơn. Điều cần theo dõi: Khối lượng, dòng tiền altcoin, hoạt động mạng lưới và lịch mở khóa token. Quan điểm: chưa có cơ sở gọi đây là Midday Summary｜V-shaped rebound recovers 83,000, but it's not time to call a reversal yet
Account update: Total assets back to 100.36U, today's profit +1.49U (+1.50%). Rebounded from last night's low of 64.35U, but this is a recovery after a pullback, not a turnaround. The account hasn't returned to principal yet, so stability remains the focus today.
📊 BTC ｜Current price 83,479
Intraday low touched 80,961, then pulled back to recover 83,000, up 2.04% in 24 hours. MA5 and MA30 around 82,900 have been reclaimed, KDJ at 38-39, RSI6 back to 51, bearish momentum temporarily eased. But the upper MA10, MA20 (83,700-83,960) and 24-hour high of 84,348 have not been broken, so this counts as a rebound, not a trend reversal.
- Resistance above: 83,700-84,000, then 84,348
- Support below: 82,900, then the low of 80,961 and the 80,000 level
- A volume-backed hold above 84,000 is bullish; falling below 82,900 remains bearish
📊 ETH ｜Current price 2,515
ETH is stronger than BTC, up 2.81% in 24 hours, rebounded from intraday low of 2,407, retook MA5 and MA60 (around 2,497), key levels 2,480-2,500 reclaimed yesterday. KDJ still low, RSI6 at 42, repair space remains 从2020到2026，币圈反复证明：买到币只是开始，保得住、拿得出，才算过关。 放在CEX： 怕被盗、被冻结、被挪用；开了杠杆，还得怕爆仓。 你以为账户里是资产，出事后才知道，也可能是债权。 换成硬件钱包： 不开源，担心黑箱；开了源，也不能保证实物没被动过手脚。还会被加元件！ 你买保险柜，别人往里面加窃听器。 还有假设备、掉包设备、预设助记词、物理攻击、假配套软件。 再加盲签、恶意授权、忘记PIN、丢失备份、忘记passphrase。 你防住别人，也可能成功防住自己。 用PC钱包： 假安装包、木马、远控、剪贴板劫持，轮番上场。 钱包文件被偷，弱密码遭离线破解；硬盘坏了、系统重装，没备份又是一道死题。 随机数生成再出问题，助记词长也未必救得了你。 用Web钱包： 托管型，要信平台；非托管型，也得信送到浏览器里的代码。 假域名、搜索广告、官网被篡改、恶意脚本，都能把“恢复钱包”变成“交出秘密”。 你以为网页长得一样，就是同一个钱包。 用插件钱包： 假的会偷，真的也可能被投毒。 2023年Ledger Connect Kit出事；2025年底Trust Wallet官方插件2.68版本遭供应Leveraged longs got crushed today 😵
Yesterday, before the US stock market even opened, the crypto market was already down on its knees. Once the US market opened, selling pressure intensified, and the scene got pretty ugly.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $785 million, with longs accounting for 88% — on average, 9 longs went down for every 1 short. BTC liquidations hit $165 million, ETH $167 million, and SOL over $60 million. Leveraged longs were collectively taken out (╥﹏╥)
Key levels:
· $BTC low at 81,032, just $632 above the previous low of 80,400
· $ETH broke below 2500, hitting a low of 2,409
· $SOL low at 101, with the 100 mark right ahead
The most dangerous thing isn’t the drop itself, but the negative feedback loop of “price drop → liquidations → intensified selling pressure.” Once the cascade of forced liquidations starts, prices are driven by leverage rather than fundamentals for the time being.
That said, liquidation data ≠ spot market exit, and definitely ≠ a bottom signal. After contracts are cleaned out, the spot market will still do what it’s going to do. Calling a bottom now is almost like catching a flying knife 🗡️
What do you think, will it keep dipping? 🤔#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening? What is the impact on $BTC and $ETH?
📊 Outflow scale
In the first week of October, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $681 million, while Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling about $635 million. However, Bitcoin ETFs still have a cumulative net inflow of $57.6 billion this year, with net assets exceeding $100 billion, indicating that institutional holdings remain solid.
🔍 Core reason: Interest rate pressure
The direct driver of this outflow is the surge in U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 5.5%, with oil prices breaking $100 and a stronger dollar, all suppressing high-risk assets. The capital withdrawal is an active reduction by investors amid macro uncertainty, not forced liquidation. Once yields fall, the willingness for capital to return is usually strong.
⚠️ Main impacts
· Short-term price pressure: ETF redemptions convert into spot sales, directly depressing coin prices. BTC briefly tested a two-week low, ETH dropped near the $2400 support level.
· Sentiment contagion: Institutional fund outflows combined with large on-chain holders transferring tokens can trigger "resonant selling," amplifying market panic.
· Key observation signals: If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high, outflows may continue; conversely, if yields fall and Bitcoin holds support near $80,000, institutional demand is expected to recover. The CPI release matters less as a single inflation verdict than as a test of breadth. Energy may lift the headline rate while a slower core monthly reading points the other way. With pause odds near 79.5%, the data could force markets to reassess whether policy restraint is enough, with rates and the dollar likely setting the first reaction.
#SepCPIHikeWatch $RSR SPIKED TO 0.003150, THEN PULLED BACK TO 0.002178. One giant green 4h candle left the 0.001473 low far behind, and red candles followed. I respect where price settles more than where it spikes.
Is 0.002178 a base forming, or just a pause?10.13 Tuesday Yang Fan's BTC and ETH Analysis
BTC is currently around 83,200, ETH around 2,507. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million, and Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling 542 million. BlackRock's ETHA had a weekly outflow of 477 million, the largest source of selling pressure. Institutions are still withdrawing, and funds have not returned.
On the macro side, the September FOMC minutes were hawkish; 9 of 18 members believe another rate hike is needed this year. Wednesday (October 15) September CPI is the biggest variable this week. If core CPI month-over-month reaches 0.3%, rate hike bets will revive, and BTC may further decline.
Technically, the 84,500-85,000 range is a strong short-term resistance for BTC, with multiple rejections confirming its validity. There is a need for short-term oversold correction, but no reversal signals are seen yet, so it can only be considered a rebound.
Trading reference:
BTC: Short directly at 83,400-84,000, target 82,500; if broken, look to 81,500; if further broken, look to 80,500.
ETH: Short directly at 2,540-2,520, target 2,480; if broken, look to 2,440; if further broken, look to 2,400.
$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $ZEC crashed through 200 dollars overnight, and I chose to add to my position
Last night ZEC dropped from 1,348 to 1,122, 200 dollars gone just like that. Others' stop-loss points became my entry points: position size increased from 0.03 all the way to 0.8, with 50x leverage, liquidation price at 1,126 — only 4 dollars away from this morning's lowest point.
At the time of writing, ZEC bounced back to 1,218, with an unrealized profit of +12.7U, the biggest gain this week. But to be honest: this is not skill, it's gambling. The cost of winning once is developing a habit of losing everything.
On the chart, the low of 1,122 did not break the previous low from 10/8, so the bulls still have support; 1,237 is the next key level, only if it holds above this will this correction be considered over.
My discipline: no more adding to the position before holding above 1,237; stop-loss set at cost 1,194, the worst outcome for this trade is breaking even, no turning into a losing trade.
How much leverage have you used at bottom-fishing at most? Let's discuss in the comments.
Risk warning: personal live trading record, not investment advice, high leverage can lead to liquidation at any time, please do not copy trades.$ETH This ID's view: Go long after the price pulls back to 2480 and stabilizes, stop loss at 2410
From the perspective of Chan theory structure: The previous 2405 formed strong support. After dropping to 2407 yesterday, it quickly rebounded and rallied, breaking through the weekend's consolidation price range, indicating strong willingness to go long at the support level
From the Wyckoff perspective: The rapid drop to 2407 released much less bearish momentum than the previous drop from the same price to 2405, indicating that the profit-taking was for risk avoidance rather than distribution selling
Key observation: Whether the price stabilizes within the consolidation range or quickly moves away from itHarmak's statement that "further rate hikes are still needed" sends a clear hawkish signal on the eve of the September CPI release.
She directly points out the core issue: inflationary pressure is no longer confined to a single area but has spread more broadly. The demand shock brought by AI development, the increased willingness of companies to pass on costs, and persistently high inflation all raise the risk of an "inflation mindset."
Harmak believes that policy must remain restrictive, interest rates need to be higher, and it is preferable to move in small, quick steps to avoid being forced into a large correction later.
This means that even though recent employment data has slowed, there are still voices within the Fed that believe it is too early to relax. Although there was already a rate hike in September, she implies that the current stance may still be insufficient to quickly bring inflation back to target.
For the market, this reinforces expectations of "possible further rate hikes within the year" and adds uncertainty to the October meeting.
If the CPI data again shows core stickiness or energy transmission, views like Harmak's may gain more resonance; if there is a clear cooling, hawkish pressure may ease.
Regardless of the outcome, Fed communication has shifted from "whether to raise rates" to "how to more effectively maintain restrictiveness." Investors need to reassess the interest rate path and asset pricing, especially in rate-sensitive sectors. Volatility may increase before the data is released. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 September CPI data is about to be released, with the market's attention highly focused. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's latest statement is clear: current monetary policy still needs to be tightened further to push inflation back to the 2% target as soon as possible.
She pointed out that inflation has been above the target for several consecutive years, and the biggest risk is that the "inflation mindset" may gradually become entrenched. As business input costs rise, more and more companies are passing prices on to consumers. If demand-side pressures (especially AI-related investments and overall economic resilience) do not cool down, inflation may remain elevated for a longer period. Hammack emphasized a preference for "small, more frequent" rate adjustments rather than waiting for pressures to accumulate before making large corrections, as this is more conducive to businesses and households planning ahead.
She did not lock in a rate hike at the October meeting but clearly stated that rates need to be at a higher level to sufficiently restrict demand. The financial environment is currently still neutral and requires more tightening. The labor market is relatively stable, giving the Fed more room to focus on inflation.
This CPI will be one of the key data points before the October policy meeting. The market has partially priced in a possible rate hike before the end of the year, but core inflation stickiness, energy price volatility, and demand resilience will determine whether the path accelerates. As a voting member this year, Hammack's hawkish signals are worth attention. After the data release, expectations and pricing may be adjusted again, and investors need to closely track core components and service inflation performance. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Bitcoin and Ethereum show strong V-shaped rebound after the second probe
Be patient and hold positions. The base positions entered at 81000 can all be kept without moving. Observe whether the resistance at 84200 can be broken later.
If it can't break through, you can try shorting for a short term.
Overall, still mainly favor low long positions.$BTC is currently hovering around 83450, down 0.35% in 24 hours, with an overall bearish trend. But I've been watching the funding rate for a while, and it's ridiculously low, indicating both bulls and bears are cautious, and no one is willing to pay interest.
This kind of market is the most deceptive. If you short expecting a drop, it can spike up at any moment; if you buy the dip expecting a rise, it slowly grinds down on you. I once lost 200,000 U in this kind of situation—seeing a drop and shorting, only to be taken out by a rebound without even having time to set a stop loss.
Now my strategy is simple: a small 5000 U position, lightly going long near the 83090 support, with a stop loss at 82800, and the first target at 84000. If it breaks below 83000, I switch to shorting immediately, never holding a losing position.
When the funding rate is extremely low, it often signals an upcoming market shift. Don’t bet heavily on direction; try small positions to test the waters, then add more once the trend is clear. Never hold losing positions, always use stop losses—staying alive is more important than anything. $ #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Bitcoin has formed a typical deep V-shaped bottoming rebound pattern, with a rapid dip followed by short-term capital replenishment and short covering driving the price back up.
This rebound was anticipated and is a technical correction after overselling during the downtrend, not a bottom reversal. The overall bearish trend rhythm remains unchanged.
The deep V pattern easily creates a market illusion of "the price can't fall further and must reverse," but essentially it cleans out panic selling at low levels and some short-term short positions.
After the rally, heavy resistance still exists above. This rebound only provides an opportunity for a second high-level short. After consolidation, the bearish trend will continue to play out!
Brothers, after covering shorts at 82700, it should be around 83000. Still hold on! Target is a break below 81000!#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点
Microsoft is truly determined this time, directly unveiling the new generation of its self-developed AI chip Maia 300.
Officially announced on October 12, with plans for large-scale deployment starting in 2027. Microsoft claims that the AI inference efficiency per unit of power is about 40% higher than leading GPU systems, and rack-level throughput can reach up to 7 times that of the previous generation. As soon as the news broke, Microsoft's stock price rose 1.14% that day, closing at $541.15, setting a new historical closing high.
What impact does this have?
First, the landscape of the computing power market is changing. Microsoft's self-developed chip aims primarily to reduce dependence on external GPU suppliers and lower computing costs. Major companies are moving away from Nvidia, which in the long term could diversify computing power supply and make prices more reasonable. But in the short term, since leading players' self-developed chips are not yet widely deployed, external GPU procurement will still be competitive, and hardware costs won't drop immediately.
Second, the AI concept in the crypto space will accelerate its differentiation. Look at giants like Microsoft, investing real money into self-developed chips, steadily moving toward the computing power infrastructure. Those AI concept projects that only write white papers without any products will die off faster. Capital will increasingly concentrate on targets with real computing power and practical applications.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH Institutions are scooping up, so why is BTC still sluggish? 🤔
Institutions focus on the “future,” while short-term traders watch the “intraday.” Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Bitcoin ETF has already accumulated 10,639 coins, about $880 million — this isn’t surfing, it’s long-term seed planting. 🌱
So why is the price still under pressure? Three cold winds blowing together:
🌍 Unfavorable macro environment: Middle East pushes oil prices up, Brent crude once surged to $102; U.S. Treasury yields skyrocketed, 10-year at 5.36%, 30-year at 5.73%, both hitting 24-year highs, squeezing risk assets hard.
💸 ETF hemorrhaging: On October 7, Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $485 million, the largest since June 25; from October to now, BTC and ETH ETFs combined outflows near $1 billion, funds are clearly withdrawing.
🦅 Fed hawkish bias: September minutes show most officials think another rate hike may be needed before year-end, with AI investments and energy prices fueling inflation.
To translate: institutions are betting on fiat depreciation in three to five years, hedge funds are profiting from this month’s price spreads. Some watch fiscal deficits and sovereign credit, others watch U.S. Treasury yields and rate hike paths. BTC is caught in the middle: short-term drained by macro factors, long-term supported by institutions. 📉➡️📈ETH bounced back from 2407 to 2512, but the ETF has been selling for ten consecutive days
Earlier it was still at 2407, and in the blink of an eye, it returned near 2512. ETH made quite a strong rebound. However, looking at the 24-hour period, it is still down overall; a rebound that pulls people out of the water doesn’t mean they’ve reached shore yet.
More strikingly, yesterday the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $85.4 million, marking the tenth consecutive day of outflows. Contract fees are almost zero, and open interest dropped by about 1.4% in one day. It doesn’t look like bulls are crowding in; it seems more like selling pressure has temporarily eased.
This Thursday, developers will discuss the upgrade directions for Glamsterdam and Hegotá. It’s a discussion about the roadmap, not an immediate upgrade rollout. There is hope in the news, but the funds haven’t yet cast their real votes with actual money.
Whether the 2500 level can hold and whether ETF outflows will stop are more worth watching than a sudden sharp rebound. For those trading contracts, do you dare to treat 2500 as an observation point now, or will you wait for the capital flow to turn first? $ETH The big coin keeps going back and forth, what is it trying to do? It looks easy to trade, but once you trade it, it fails, right?
The big coin retraced all the way down to 80985, then recovered above the 81270 support level, and immediately started a rapid rebound. Doesn't this scene and feeling seem very familiar?
The last round was exactly like this! It also recovered like this! What we need to do is find relative patterns! Last round, I bought more around 82000–82500, and this round too. Damn, I held through the recovery... floating assets, but luckily this time it came back quickly with no losses!
So for today's intraday trend, here’s how we see it:
Key levels: 83132–82180, just use these as a reference!
Trading advice:
Go long near 82000–82500,
Targets: 83766–84583
If no opportunity is given, then we take a retracement. Remember, it must be a retracement, don’t be greedy! The range is 84300–85000, place a short order! After finishing, run away quickly! Don’t hesitate, if you get caught, it will be very painful! $BTC "Three Candlesticks, One Slap"
At midnight, $BTC was still at 84,200. I thought waiting a few more seconds would earn me a bit more. But then a big bearish candle slammed 82,480 onto the screen, dropping 1.4%. The unrealized profit just now was like a cooked duck, flapping away, even snatching some of my rice along. The profit and loss line rose from my feet to my head; I stared at it like staring at my own greed.
$SOL was even more straightforward. Sliding down from 116, I thought it was a step, reached out to catch it, placed a limit order at 112.5, current price 110.8, down 2.3%. Missed the cheap catch, ended up with a handful of flying knives. The market makers may not know me, but the candlesticks seem to.
$ETH remains the same, 2,515, down 0.5%. It touched 2,560 then softened back, so I added a couple of hands, just following the market's breath. It doesn't kill me, just grinds me down.
In the end, the market punishes greed and slowness. Next time with unrealized profits, I’ll pocket half first, then push the rest to breakeven. Meat in the mouth can’t be let fly again.
For personal review only, not investment advice.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 BTC fell below 81,000 then pulled back to 83,000, ETF is still withdrawing
The scariest moment in the Asian session: BTC once dropped below 81,000, then quickly pulled back above 83,000. The Korean stock market fell over 6%, chip stocks were all green, Nasdaq futures were weak, but the crypto market didn’t seem to dive along this time.
But don’t rush to call a reversal. Yesterday, the US spot BTC ETF still had a net outflow of $65.4 million. The price bounced from the low point, but institutional funds didn’t turn positive simultaneously. The contract fee rate was slightly positive, and open interest decreased by about 1% compared to yesterday, more like leverage was pulling back a bit first.
Tomorrow the US CPI will be released, and oil prices and inflation expectations are still causing disruption. 81,000 was the recent low, and there is resistance above 84,000. Let’s first see if it can hold, no rush to conclude a rebound.
If you hold contracts, will you keep positions before CPI or reduce leverage first? $BTC Having lunch at noon, a group friend suddenly threw a question: Can I get on board with RSR?
I was stunned for a moment. This coin just appeared on the hot list, up 25% in 24 hours, with trading volume 27.8 times the usual, current price 0.00207. But when you ask what it actually does, none of the usual daily tipsters in the group can give a proper story. No narrative, no new features, purely a fund gamble inside, whoever is slower to take it gets hit.
I replied: first tell me why you want to buy it. He said because it went up. Okay, I know that reason well; I thought the same three years ago and then paid the tuition fee.
This coin’s 24-hour increase on the hot list is really good, and it’s also up 20.9% over 7 days with obvious volume increase. But remember how those speculative coins trapped you last year—a surge with volume, then a half-year slow decline without even a rebound. If you want to play, use money for a meal, treat it like buying a lottery ticket, don’t bet heavily. I won’t move, saving my bullets for when there’s a real story. $RSR Bitcoin and Ethereum may still face at least one more weekly-level correction? Bottom-fishing now is really too early!
Inflation data hasn't been released yet, but the market has already taken a hit in advance. BTC has yet to reclaim 85,000, ETH is under pressure simultaneously, and the rebound is weak. The biggest risk now is not missing out, but blindly bottom-fishing.
Three signals to watch out for:
Macro pressure: Middle East tensions are escalating, oil prices and inflation risks are intensifying, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, combined with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, risk assets continue to be under pressure. CPI and PPI have not been published yet, so uncertainty remains in the market.
ETF continuous outflows: From October 1 to 9, BTC spot ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of about $386 million; ETH spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $645 million as of October 12, indicating weak spot buying support.
Concentrated long liquidations: Approximately $785 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with 172,662 forced liquidations; longs account for about 88%, and the long-to-short liquidation amount ratio is close to 9:1. Concentrated leverage clearing may further amplify the downtrend.
With the triple pressure of macro, capital, and liquidations overlapping, whether the weekly-level correction has ended still needs confirmation.
Better to miss a rebound than to rush to catch a falling knife. Wait for price stabilization, improved trading volume, and spot buying to return before considering the next move. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ When blood pressure drops to 2.19, family members often still ask, "Is it a cold?" It's not a cold. It's cardiac output failure, and what I see is a 95% torn valve at the Bollinger Band position—this is the most dangerous image that intraoperative ultrasound can capture: the price is stuck at the upper band, with only 0.4% margin above, while the mid-cycle Bollinger Band reading of 116% means the vessel wall has been stretched beyond anatomical limits, and the -1.1% clamp position is right overhead.
A 24-hour fluctuation of 5.09% is not ordinary arrhythmia. This is a precursor to ventricular fibrillation. The 1-hour RSI has surged to 68.1, the long cycle to 61.8, both channels entering the sympathetic storm zone simultaneously, and the trading signal clearly states SELL—when myocardial oxygen consumption and perfusion pressure begin to diverge, only amateurs continue to administer inotropes. A short-cycle RSI over 64 indicates insufficient anesthesia depth, and a long-cycle approaching 62 means extracorporeal circulation cooling is too slow; combined, these two indicators mean what we call "looks okay but is actually sliding irreversibly on the table."
Diagnosis: This is acute right heart overload failure, not ischemia. Short selling is the only surgical approach.
📉 Short:
Entry: 2.26 (current price +3.4%, wait for pullback to confirm valve insufficiency)
Take Profit 1: 1.98 (-9.5%, first assistant sends pathology)
Take Profit 2: 2.00 (-9.5%, simultaneous ventricular closure)
Stop Loss: 2.51 (+14.6%, immediate intervention upon major bleeding)
Why place the stop loss so far at 14.6%? Because in cardiac surgery, the greatest taboo is premature hemostatic clamping, which turns a repairable tear into an un-sutureable necrosis. 2.51 is the safety boundary for aortic occlusion; breaking it floods the entire surgical field. The target range of 9.5% space precisely matches the complete perfusion drop from the current price to the lower Bollinger Band—this is not speculation but an anatomical path mapped out by preoperative CT.
Don't perform extracorporeal circulation based on emotions. Price decline is just a line on the ECG; the real lesion is the short-term compensatory failure of systolic blood flow. Those who hesitate when hemodynamics are still relatively stable will have no second chance once cardiac tamponade occurs on the table.
Suture completed, close the chest. $ZEC SPIKED TO 1,349.09, DUMPED TO 1,123.33, THEN BOUNCED TO 1,217.20 ON THE 1H CHART. Today shows +4.29%, yet 7D still reads -10.97%.
I won't let one green day erase a red week. Can the 1,123.33 wick hold as a floor, or was it just a flush?Today is the last trading day for Bitwise's Dogecoin ETF; liquidation starts tomorrow, and on the 22nd, the remaining money will be returned to the holders. The assets have dropped from 2.5 million seed funds to only 725,000.
When I saw this news, my first reaction was that it was over, maybe a crash was coming.
But after looking again, I found something interesting. There are still other Dogecoin ETFs running in the US market, like Grayscale's GDOG and 21Shares' TDOG, which haven't closed. Moreover, the entire Dogecoin ETF saw a net inflow of $327,000 last week, marking the third consecutive week of money flowing in.
One closes, others remain open.
What really stunned me was another piece of data. Dogecoin spot flows flipped from net inflow to net outflow in the past week, with a week-on-week change of 599%, about $57 million withdrawn from exchanges. Many people see this number and panic sell, but think about it: if $57 million worth of DOGE was dumped on the market, the price would have crashed already. It hasn't. The money most likely moved from exchanges to cold wallets, just staying in a different place.
$DOGE I'm watching this signal closely.Short position earned 928%, not because the direction was right
Held the $SNDK short position for a long time this round.
Several times almost closed it at 1600.
What does this number mean:
928% is the leveraged return, not that the coin price dropped 928%.
With several times leverage, this percentage is amplified by the same factor.
How is this number calculated:
Shorted from 1769 to 1547, the price dropped just over 12%.
Multiply by leverage, it becomes 928%.
The direction was right, but leverage is the amplifier.
The reason for the drop is not complicated.
Next quarter's performance missed expectations, and the flash memory price surge hype basically ended.
Once the news came out, the storage sector dropped together.
Now the news has been digested, and funds have returned.
1547 is the key support for this round.
The hourly chart shows signs of stabilization.
If it breaks below, the downtrend will truly continue.
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 $SNDK Core drivers of the decline: concentrated release of geopolitical risks
① Ukraine energy ceasefire “verbal agreement” falls through
Trump previously announced a suspension of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, but Zelensky later clearly stated he was unaware of any ceasefire news. The market has serious doubts about the actual implementation of Trump’s statement, and geopolitical risk premiums have been re-priced into oil prices.
② Oil tanker attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge
Iran reported that an oil tanker was attacked and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil broke above 107.25, reaching a new high since September 16. The surge in oil prices directly pushed up inflation expectations, strengthening market concerns about the Fed continuing to tighten policy. Former Goldman Sachs chief FX strategist Robin Brooks pointed out that current oil prices have priced in too many geopolitical risk factors; although the volume of crude transported through the Persian Gulf has declined somewhat, it is still better than the most tense period in March-April.
③ US-Iran tensions escalate, suppressing risk appetite
The escalation of US-Iran tensions combined with the crude oil rebound directly lowered risk appetite, with BTC quickly pulling back 0.34% within 15 minutes. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 $BCH TAGGED 257.5 AND SNAPPED BACK TO 272.2. The 4h shows a long lower wick after a steep slide. Today is +2.52%, yet 7D still reads -12.72%. One green candle isn't a trend;
I need follow-through. Can BCH reclaim 288.8, the 24h high?📊 加密市场情报 · 2026-10-13 📉 当日整体情绪：看跌 中东地缘风险急升推高油价，半导体/存储板块回调，加密市场ETH多单遭清算，整体偏防御 💬 微信群聊总结：看跌 窗口内行情先热后崩：12日下午 Upbit 连上 RSR、GTC 等老币带来枯坐打新机会，W、STRK 等老登币集体异动；晚间 CZ/何一与徐明星隔空开撕，大盘走弱，13日早间韩股与美股半导体（海力士）暴跌带崩币圈，BTC 跌到 8.1w，PONS 持续新低，RH 链生态几近熄火。Papertrade(PAPER) 挖矿分红是少数赚钱的事。 • Upbit 密集上小市值老币（RSR/GTC），机器人秒拉，枯坐仍有肉 • PONS 持续新低到 0.2x，RH 链不上自家现货，群内普遍套牢 • 10-13 早盘全线暴跌，韩股熔断+海力士/存储崩，BTC 8.1w • 何一 vs 徐明星再度开撕，群内共识：一吵架就跌，做空胜率高 • PAPER 刷量挖矿成本已降至 0.004-0.006，头矿者靠分红回本 • BSC/SOL meme 流动性枯竭，上 Alpha 门槛降至约 10-15M 🎯 叙事 / 主题聚$BTC
The 30-year US Treasury yield has already broken 5.6%. Although the Treasury's two rounds of long-term bond auctions barely held, that was achieved by "attracting buyers with high yields." If the upcoming CPI data isn't too bad, or if Wash's speech on Friday is milder than expected, risk assets might collectively catch a breather, and BTC could very well rebound. I don't want to short near 83,000; I'd rather wait for a rebound to the 84,500-85,000 range before considering adding positions.
My trading approach (personal opinion only):
82,500 is the bottom line, not the target. If the weekly close confirms a break below this level, I will hold shorts without hesitation aiming for 77,000, which is the cost zone with the densest positions according to on-chain data. But if the price stabilizes above 83,500 again and holds for several hours, I will reduce my position and observe, not stubbornly fight the market. The CPI on October 14 is the biggest risk this week; I won't heavily bet on direction before the data is out.$BTC
Frankly, shorting BTC this week is not about any fundamental problem with Bitcoin itself, but about betting that macro sentiment will grind risk assets down. I have only one feeling: the old monster called inflation has not been killed.#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？ Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother!
Damn! What kind of market is this! BTC jumped straight from 80961 to 83330 in a V-shape, gaining over 2300 points!
Just now around 81000, I saw a bunch of people shouting that if it breaks below 80,000, it would go to 78,000, but then a big bullish candle completely buried the shorts. The manipulative whales are really tricky, first smashing down to clear the longs, then pulling up to blow up the shorts, harvesting back and forth.
Now the 30-minute MACD red bars have surged, indicating a strong short-term rebound. But with CPI coming tomorrow night, whether this V-shape reversal is a real turnaround or a bull trap, no one can say for sure.
Brothers chasing longs, be careful, there is often a second pullback after a V reversal. Don't get carried away, control your position size well.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
The leader has something to say
TSMC's Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a 50% year-over-year increase, setting a new historical high. But with the revenue record already disclosed, the real focus now is whether profits can grow in tandem.
The market is watching the full financial report on October 15. The key point is not revenue, but gross margin. The company itself expects 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's 67.7%. AI chip demand is strong, and advanced process capacity utilization is high, but depreciation and cost pressures from capacity expansion are also rising. Inventory is also critical; if inventory turnover days lengthen, it indicates demand might not be as tight. Some comments suggest first flipping the inventory page, which is the right approach.
The impact on crypto is indirect. If TSMC's profits exceed expectations and AI hardware remains strong, funds will continue to stay in chips and cloud infrastructure, drawing liquidity away from Bitcoin. If gross margin falls short of expectations, the semiconductor sector will pull back, risk appetite will shrink, and Bitcoin will come under pressure. Both scenarios lean bearish.
I hold long Bitcoin positions at 83000 and short positions at 86500, hedging both sides with a light position. No one-sided bets before CPI data. Long stop loss at 81500, target 86000. Short stop loss at 87500, target 84500 to 85000. Whichever target is reached first, reduce that side first.
TSMC's financial report is an industry validation, not a directional switch. Don't chase highs or sell lows; set stop losses properly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.SOL is trading near $109.6, down around 3.1%. After retreating from $115, I expected buyers to step in and deliver a decent bounce. Instead, the recovery stalled, and selling pressure returned. What looked like a discount turned into another uncomfortable position. I'll be watching the $108–$110 zone closely; losing it could invite further weakness, while a sustained move back above $112 would offer some relief.⚠️ $SNDK SanDisk: How far can the rebound go? $1504 is the key!
Although SanDisk is more resistant to decline than Hynix, after hitting the lower edge of the $1860–$2350 resistance zone, it still experienced a pullback. Meanwhile, OpenAI's revenue fell short of expectations, once again sparking market concerns about AI investment returns, and the storage hardware sector has started to come under pressure. Warning signs have already appeared.
Next, don't get swayed by short-term fluctuations; focus on $1504.
If this level is broken down with high volume and the price fails to recover promptly, this rebound may be coming to an end. Conversely, if the support holds, with volume shrinking on the pullback and expanding on the rebound, there is still a chance to challenge the upper resistance zone again.
Ultimately, investing is not about chasing explosive gains every day. Many people always think about how to grow their money quickly but overlook one truth: it's very difficult to consistently earn beyond your understanding. Even if you occasionally make a lucky profit, without judgment and risk awareness, you may end up giving the profits back to the market.
Market ups and downs are normal. Instead of frequently chasing hot trends, it's better to cultivate your financial mindset, understand why you buy, where the risks lie, and under what circumstances you should exit.
Whether SanDisk continues to rebound or weakens depends on whether $1504 can hold. If the support is effective, keep watching for upward opportunities; once a break is confirmed, adjust your expectations promptly. Investing is not about short-term luck but about cognition, patience, and risk management.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Heavy positions in US stocks have been hammered, can the Wall Street big shots pull the market up? Can't hold on much longer!!!
SNDK current price 1442, 15-minute timeframe still below all EMA lines, indicating a weak recovery after a big drop, RSI6=50, no clear bullish reversal signal. Resistance above at 1471 (EMA55), short-term support at 1427, currently just a slight rebound after overselling, rebound priority is to test resistance levels, not suitable for chasing longs directly.
SK Hynix current price 1083, down 6.21%, bears are stronger, price far from short-term moving averages, RSI6=25.3 entering oversold zone, DIFF remains below DEA, downward momentum has not fully exhausted. First resistance above at 1139 (EMA55), support below at 1080, oversold does not directly mean bottom, risk/reward ratio for bottom fishing is low.
Looking at BTC linkage, BTC has rebounded quickly in the short term, RSI is close to overbought, there is a risk of pullback later, storage assets themselves are highly elastic, the market will face pressure again once it falls.
Overall strategy: heavy direct long positions are not recommended; if you want to play short-term longs, wait for a stable hold above moving averages with volume confirmation before trying small positions, strictly use stop loss. $BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX
The above is only a market review and does not constitute any trading advice #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Although I posted this morning for everyone to buy ETH at 2450 and hold for 40 points, the rebound has now gained more than 60 points, so it's quite satisfying 🤑$ETH The testnet is going offline, it's not an exit scam, it's a map change.
Neura has shut down the v1 testnet and Neuraverse together, moving on to the next phase.
Many people's first reaction is "the project is dead."
I think we shouldn't rush to conclusions.
The key is the snapshot.
Points, leaderboards, tasks, event history—all have been saved.
What does this mean?
It means the previous gameplay is ending, but your records haven't been erased.
Simply put, the old map won't be released anymore, and the new map hasn't been announced yet.
What we should focus on now is not what has been shut down, but what will be brought out in the next phase.
If the new content connects well, this downtime is an upgrade.
If not, the snapshot is just a commemorative photo.
As an old holder, I have a conditioned reflex when I see the word "snapshot."
First, take screenshots to save it, then talk about faith.
#代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？ $ETH 📊BTC stuck at 83,400, don't rush to act on the eve of CPI!
Current price 83,407, up 0.83% in 24 hours, but the 4-hour chart is still in a downtrend channel, with 84,000-85,000 as a dense resistance zone. Market sentiment has clearly cooled down—the Fear and Greed Index has fallen from 67 to 56, returning to a neutral range. The capital flow is also retreating: BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $65.4 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading.
On-chain signals are worth watching: a certain whale has cumulatively sold 837.8 BTC, reallocating to buy 27,500 ETH, valued at about $69.68 million. Another ancient whale, silent for years, transferred out all 4,582 BTC, worth $377 million.
Key levels: 82,500 below is an important support this week, 83,400 above is short-term resistance. The October 14 CPI expectation is 3.7% year-over-year, followed closely by the October 15 PPI data, which will be the real watershed for direction.
Stay light and wait for the data, don't bet on direction. Do you think the CPI is hot or cold? Chat in the comments👇#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BTC W has fallen from a high of 0.02971 to 0.01936, with consecutive bearish candles on the hourly chart, moving averages turning downward, MACD green bars still expanding, and RSI entering oversold territory but without a rebound signal. The order book shows a large accumulation of long liquidations below 0.01936; if the price breaks through 0.01890, it is likely to trigger a chain of forced liquidations, so do not go long at this level.
Just climbed six floors carrying a lunch box, the voice-controlled light didn’t turn on, and my phone vibrating in my pocket made my leg numb.
For short-term trades, waiting for a rebound to short is safer. Enter the market if the rebound stalls between 0.02040 and 0.02090, with a stop loss at 0.02220, first take profit at 0.01760, and second take profit at 0.01580. If it directly breaks down below 0.01890 with volume, do not bottom-fish; short again on a rebound to 0.01930, stop loss at 0.02030, target 0.01600.
$W
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6%
@OKX星球 A while ago, a colleague pulled me into a group chat
Every day someone was showing off their orders
After watching for a while, I got itchy hands
Threw in a few hundred bucks to try
The first buy was $BTC
Right after buying, it started to dip slowly
It dipped so much I even started picking cheaper takeout
Later, I tried $ETH
There’s a lot on-chain stuff
But the fees are brutal
One operation wastes half a day
Then I heard $SOL is fast
Transferred a little money to try
Fast is really fast
But the traps are real too
Some projects just disappear without a trace
Lost a few times before I learned my lesson
Don’t chase hot topics
Don’t follow tips blindly
Don’t touch what you don’t understand
Write down your private keys yourself
Don’t give them to anyone who asks
Don’t click on strange links
No matter how tempting airdrops are, don’t connect your wallet recklessly
Now I only hold money I won’t mind losing
Just let it be
Don’t get cocky when it rises
Don’t panic when it falls
There are many opportunities in this field
But even more traps
Living long is more important than making a quick profit
Don’t borrow money
Don’t get carried away
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits
Leave the rest to time#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 #aavev4 deposits on Arc surpass $300 million
[Old Leek Observation] $AAVE V4 deposits have surged past $300 million, the money is coming in, and the real test is yet to come
Aave V4's deposit scale on Arc once exceeded $300 million, which is a development worth noting. But I think more important than the deposit number is: what will be done with this money after it comes in?
In DeFi, a large deposit scale does not necessarily mean the protocol is profitable. Funds coming in only indicate that users are willing to put assets into this market; if borrowing demand does not keep up, and capital utilization remains low, no matter how much is deposited, it may not bring corresponding protocol revenue.
Conversely, if deposits grow while borrowing scale, capital utilization, and active users also continuously increase, that indicates the market is not just attracting funds but truly forming borrowing demand.
So this time I won't rush to call it a positive for AAVE. Getting a wave of capital attention after the new network launch is the first step; whether this batch of funds can be retained and both deposits and borrowings grow together is what needs to be verified next.
For Aave V4, $300 million is a good starting point but not the final answer.
When you look at DeFi protocols, do you pay more attention to TVL (Total Value Locked), or borrowing scale and actual revenue? Tom Lee Warns: South Korean Stock Market Crash May Trigger Chain Reaction in Crypto Market, Short-Term Pain Inevitable
On October 13, Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee issued a warning, pointing out that the sharp decline in the South Korean stock market is becoming a new risk factor for the crypto market.
Tom Lee believes that South Korean investors, as a significant group holding cryptocurrencies, could transmit the severe volatility in their domestic securities market to the crypto space through capital flows.
Lee analyzed that the stock market drop in South Korea may trigger margin calls at brokerage firms. Some investors, to cover losses in their stock accounts and meet margin requirements, will be forced to sell crypto assets, thereby exerting selling pressure on coin prices.
He even bluntly stated that this cross-market liquidity shock could cause the crypto market to endure "pain" in the short term. Although his words were restrained, the implication was clear:
That is, the deleveraging effect in the South Korean stock market will not only impact stocks. Once margin call pressure spreads to crypto assets heavily held by South Korean retail investors, selling pressure will cross markets, making it difficult for the crypto market to remain unaffected in the short term.
This warning originated from a Bull Theory post stating that due to a 5% intraday plunge in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), the Korea Exchange urgently suspended program trading for 5 minutes.
Notably, this is the first time in nearly two months that the South Korean stock market has triggered such a circuit breaker mechanism, indicating that panic is rapidly spreading in the capital markets.
#SouthKoreanStockMarketCrash #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
US Stock Market Analysis: On the eve of earnings season, energy and shipping lead, chip stocks take a hit
On Monday, the US stock market played the "index battle" again, with the Dow up 0.38%, the Nasdaq down 0.44%, and the S&P basically flat. The most striking was the trading volume, only 12.6 billion shares, the lowest non-holiday level since 2003, as everyone awaits the bank earnings kickoff.
A macro black swan emerged: Changxin Memory announced a breakthrough in next-generation DRAM architecture, directly targeting high-margin AI server memory. Micron responded by falling below $1000, while SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Intel all declined, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 2.7%, hitting a three-week low.
Another focus is the Middle East. The Houthi forces attacked a Saudi airport over the weekend, and oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz were repeatedly attacked, pushing oil prices up over 2%. Funds immediately flowed into energy and shipping, with the XLE Energy ETF and BOAT Global Shipping ETF both hitting record highs. Gold and Bitcoin were pressured by a stronger dollar, with gold down 0.6% and Bitcoin retreating to around 83,000.
In summary: In the calm before earnings season, capital has already chosen sides. Chips are pressured by Chinese competition and technological iteration, while energy and shipping are pushed by geopolitical factors, making the divergence increasingly clear. Once earnings are released and volatility increases, the direction will become even clearer.Good afternoon, brothers
Starting with 500U compounded daily, now on day 48, total assets around 2800U, peaked at 3100U.
About this ETH trade, I opened long and short positions the day before yesterday, took profit on the long position yesterday afternoon, and then added a 3x short following the trend.
As soon as I added to the position, the market surged sharply upwards, hitting 2576 directly. My stop loss was set at 2580, just a little away from being triggered, which really scared me at the time.
Fortunately, it dropped afterward, and this trade recovered more than half of the losses.
I was cautious during the decline, took profit early on most positions, now only one-seventh of the position remains, break-even stop loss is set, so there’s not much pressure.
Recently learned a new strategy from an expert, will study and slowly recover from here.
Brothers, remember, slow is fast.
Try to avoid high-risk trades like this as much as possible; they really test your mindset.
⚠️Personal live trading sharing, not investment advice, contract risks
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息