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Jiang Zhuoer’s latest analysis provides a clear judgment on the two key levels of $80,000 and $77,000 📊
He states:
Currently, it is believed that Bitcoin will most likely break below $80,000, but it is unlikely to fall below $77,000.
Why $77,000?
This level is both the Point of Control (POC) for the previous consolidation range and the POC since the rise on August 19. In other words, the price with the highest volume concentration in these two different ranges happens to be around $77,000.
He also added an interesting judgment:
The market is very unlikely to drop below $75,000, allowing everyone to buy in at a comfortable position.
POC (Point of Control) usually represents the price area where market participants compete most intensely and where chips are most concentrated. Such levels often form natural support or resistance because a large amount of position cost is concentrated nearby. Currently, support level judgments from multiple analysts in the market are gradually converging in the $75,000–$83,000 range, which may become the main battlefield for bulls and bears going forward.
$BTC South Korea's KOSPI plunged 4% intraday, triggering a sell-off circuit breaker for the first time in two months. KOSPI200 futures fell 5.08% to 955.02 points, pausing programmatic selling for 5 minutes. Rule: If the futures index falls more than 5% for 1 minute, the circuit breaker is triggered; this is the first time since August.27 platforms.
This time South Korea has blocked the web versions of platforms like KuCoin, MEXC, and BingX all at once.
Previously, they were only removed from app stores, but now the websites are inaccessible as well.
In simple terms, they have blocked access from mobile to desktop, basically sealing off all possible entry points.
The most interesting thing about this is not the number 27.
It indicates a trend: countries are gradually losing patience with unlicensed exchanges.
They used to turn a blind eye, but now they are getting serious.
Impact on the market? Almost negligible in the short term.
These platforms originally had a low proportion of South Korean users, so blocking them just means one less access point.
But looking at the long term, this will happen repeatedly.
Today it’s South Korea, tomorrow it could be another country.
What we should really think about is not which of these 27 platforms is unlucky.
If this kind of "blockade" becomes the norm, how much longer can those platforms operating in gray areas survive?
Where you keep your coins might be a more important question than the market trend.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#贝森特拟查扣10亿美元伊朗相关加密资产 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $BTC This morning's drop formed a high-volume 1-hour bearish candle, breaking the consolidation range of the previous 30 candles. Yesterday at noon, the price formed a UTAD above 84,000, broke through the upper boundary of the range, then fell back. Afterwards, the market moved back and forth within the range, with the trading volume in the latter half of the range significantly larger than the first half. As a result, this morning's drop broke below the lower boundary and closed below the range.
Just now, several consecutive 15-minute bearish candles dropped, which was a bit unexpected. However, after reaching the low, the 15-minute chart formed a Pin Bar with a long lower shadow and closed back up. The next two candles closed bullish consecutively, recovering much of the lost ground, and the short-term selling momentum eased.
Switching to the 4-hour chart, the current price is right around the 81,900 4-hour support. This level has held four times before, and this morning's sharp drop also stopped here.
Currently, I am slightly bullish. The buying at the 4-hour support absorbed this selling pressure, and the bearish momentum has mostly dissipated. I expect the price to stabilize around this support first, then rebound to test the daily level near 82,500.
$ETH $SOL #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $BTC
$ETH
At this stage of crypto, the main players will complete shakeouts and accumulation by wide-range oscillations and upper-lower wicks/liquidity grabs before starting the main upward wave. They test patience in two dimensions: volatility range and time. What we need to do is follow the main players and accumulate our own chips within this range. This is why building positions in batches within this range is very important. Don’t keep fantasizing about extremely low prices; the main players already hold the chips. If they dump to buy back, they’re just hurting themselves. Moreover, the BTC supply on exchanges has reached a historic low, which is the exact opposite of altcoins. Where you should allocate your position is clear at a glance.
For long-term large positions (core holdings):
1. Don’t miss the main upward wave; it remains the primary goal. The lowest price is not the primary goal.
2. Not using any on-exchange leverage is the first risk control; off-exchange leverage can be used.
3. Going all-in at the bottom area is the primary strategy. Don’t fantasize about optimizing your cost after entering the bull market—that’s nearly impossible. The first all-in should at least constitute 90% of your profit source for this bull market.$BTC 🔥 "On-chain assets have never been a lawless zone"
Sanctions, freezing, seizure. The US's triple escalation against Iran's crypto assets has shattered an illusion: on-chain assets are not inherently free.
How was $1 billion seized? By the "switch" in the hands of stablecoin issuers. Once USDT and USDC blacklist an address, the funds become immobile. So-called decentralization is just a thin veil in front of centralized issuers.
What truly cannot be taken away is the BTC in self-custody wallets. With the private keys in your hands, no one can transfer your funds out of thin air unless they find you first. Iran intended to use BTC to bypass the dollar, but while it bypassed settlement, it did not bypass law enforcement. The lesson bought with this $1 billion is clear: funds in custodial wallets belong to others; funds in self-custody wallets belong to yourself.
This is not just a technical issue, but an extension of sovereignty. Technology advances, and so does law enforcement. After seizures, the number of countries using crypto channels will not decrease; it will only accelerate catching up—from relying on stablecoins to truly peer-to-peer self-custody.
The race is only halfway through. Whoever holds absolute control will be the last to laugh."Rebalancing is not a positive signal, it's a retreat"
BTC and ETH both broke down together. Someone asked: Whales selling BTC to buy ETH, is ETH about to soar? The 4-hour chart shows no mercy: from 2769 down to 2406, a rebound to 2580 then a turn down, volume decreasing, heavy resistance above. This is not a takeoff, it's a downtrend continuation.
410 BTC swapped for 14,341 ETH, superficially a rebalance, but essentially funds are retreating from BTC. It's not optimism for ETH, but finding a pool where they can still unload with slower losses.
88% of retail traders are short, positions extremely crowded. Yet prices continue to fall, indicating selling pressure comes from real spot selling, not short-sellers dumping. Crowded shorts plus spot bleeding usually means bulls are the first to break.
Some see 2458 as a bottom. But if 2600 can't hold, where is the bottom? Until the trend recovers, rebounds look more like desperate escapes than opportunities.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Brothers, I’m the clown who was crazily posting in the community a couple of days ago, showing off and insisting "I didn’t take profits on the 100U floating gain, gotta have a big picture mindset."
Today, reality slapped me hard. Take a look at this brutal liquidation order: 10x leverage long on CFX, entry price 0.06079. Just a few days ago, I clearly had a 100U floating profit in front of me, but greed got the better of me—I thought I could double it. Then the market suddenly turned sharply down. I refused to believe it and stubbornly held on. I stubbornly held from floating profit all the way to zero profit, finally tearfully closing at 0.05999.
Not only did the 100U profit vanish into thin air, I even lost 15.79U! The money isn’t much, but the humiliation is intense. These past two days, watching the candlesticks, I couldn’t eat, couldn’t sleep well, and my thighs are sore from slapping myself.
I’ll just treat this 15U as tuition paid to the market makers. I deeply reflect: the biggest taboo in trading is greed and fighting against the market. Here, I sincerely apologize to the brothers I annoyed with my showing off—I was wrong! From now on, I’ll honestly set take-profit and stop-loss, and never blindly hold losing positions again. I wish all brothers to align knowledge and action, steadily take profits, and never follow my example! $BTC $CFX #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 BCH's profits are almost squeezed dry, ETH and SOL are about to wipe me out completely! I really can't hold on anymore!
Staying up late watching my account, my heart is bleeding. This is not "living towards death," it's clearly like a dull knife cutting flesh, slowly grinding away my life bit by bit!
Position update:
BCH: The last lifeblood of the whole village! Full position 10X leverage, entry at 261.02, mark price 264.72, floating profit only +5.55U left, ROI dropped to +14.01%. Base position 396U, margin 39U, BCH really tried its best, profits are being eaten away bit by bit, can't carry it, really can't carry it! ETH: The number one bottomless pit! Full position 5X leverage, entry at 2718.24, mark price 2450.84. Floating loss surged to -218.31U, ROI -54.78%! 5X leverage has painfully brought a despair of wiping out, this mud really can't be helped!
$SOL: The ultimate disaster zone! Full position 20X leverage, entry at 115.63, mark price 104.63. Floating loss -145.15U, ROI -209.88%! Once the second hero, now fallen so badly it betrays all relations, principal cut in half and then some, a tragic sight! $ETH $SOL $BCH
Honestly speaking: The +5U profit from BCH is not even a drop in the bucket compared to the combined massive loss of over 360U from ETH and SOL. Overall margin ratio is stuck tightly at 0.09%!
0.09%, brothers! I was already scared awake at 0.1% before, now it's not even 0.1%! Even if the market just sneezes downward, a slight adjustment to 0.09%, this account along with BCH's last profits will instantly evaporate on the spot! No time even to give you a chance to close positions!
I once swore "I'll exit when these two big brothers break even," but looking back now, it's a huge joke. Waking up in the middle of the night every day to watch forced liquidations, heart racing wildly with the K-line, this suffocating feeling of being ready to wipe out anytime, I've really had enough! Reason keeps pounding me: immediately clear positions and accept the loss, cut losses to survive! But the gambler's mind is pulling hard: what if there's a V-shaped rebound soon? What if I cut losses just before dawn?
Brothers, this hellish difficulty of 0.09%, how on earth do I break through? Hurry up and wake me up in the comments, should I cut this long position or hold on?!Woke up feeling confused, the bears are enjoying it, if it keeps falling like this, we bulls will have to go begging on the streets. BTC and ETH have started to see some bottom-fishing, SOL hasn't caught up yet. Who should I focus on for this rebound?
After a drop this morning, short-term buying has temporarily returned to BTC and ETH, while SOL's support is lagging behind. How far the rebound can go depends on whether this buying momentum can continue.
BTC: 1-hour spot net inflow of $13.73 million, contract net outflow of $377 million, spot active buying is already dominant. Extending to 4 hours, spot still has a net outflow of $77.48 million, 24-hour net outflow of $182 million, the previous selling pressure hasn't been fully absorbed. I'll first watch if this support can continue.
ETH: 1-hour spot net inflow of $13.27 million, contract net outflow of $182 million. Short-term buying has also started to pick up, but 4-hour spot still has a net outflow of $85.39 million, 24-hour net outflow of $263 million. If buying remains during any pullback later, it will be more confident after recovery.
SOL: 1-hour spot still has a net outflow of $135,200, contract net outflow of $66.03 million; 4-hour and 24-hour spot net outflows are $21.16 million and $45.17 million respectively. Compared to BTC and ETH, it hasn't yet shown the same buying improvement, so I'll keep waiting.
I'm bullish in the long term, but after this drop and rebound, I want to short occasionally too—I want to enjoy it like the bears do.Ethereum and Bitcoin both broke their defenses.
Last night a fan asked if a whale selling BTC to buy ETH means Ethereum is about to take off. I didn’t rush to reply and just glanced at the 4-hour chart: from 2769 down to 2406, then a rebound to 2580 showed fatigue, volume shrinking bar by bar, with dense trapped positions above. Is this called taking off? This is being carried up on a stretcher.
Many only see the surface when whales rebalance. Selling 410 BTC to buy 14,341 ETH sounds like rebalancing, but in fact it’s just moving to a slower losing corner to hold on. Big money is withdrawing from Bitcoin not because they are extremely bullish on Ethereum, but because overall liquidity can’t hold, funds are looking for an exit, not an opportunity.
Currently, 88% of retail traders are short, positions are too crowded. But the price still drifts down slowly, what does this mean? It’s not contract shorts dumping, but real money flowing out of the spot market. Crowded shorts combined with spot selling pressure is a common combo, and usually the bulls are the first to break, triggering a chain of forced liquidations.
On the macro side, CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests, Middle East geopolitical issues and TSMC earnings cause disturbances, making risk assets hard to trend unilaterally. In terms of operations, don’t be fooled by whale appearances; ETH rebounds without volume are opportunities to reduce positions, BTC only has confidence if it holds above 82,000. Manage leverage well before data, wait for the market to choose a direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 【$AAVE attracted $300 million on Arc, yet AAVE is still falling. What exactly is the market waiting for?】
Aave V4 deposits on Circle's Arc have surpassed $300 million, less than a month since its launch in mid-September. The latest on-chain data shows nearly $294 million, with a net increase of about $44.3 million over the past 7 days. This is not just storytelling; real funds are moving in.
Breaking it down, USDC deposits are about $143 million, cirBTC around $89.8 million, and approximately $51.1 million in syrupUSDC. Both stablecoins and Bitcoin assets have flowed in, indicating that Arc is attracting genuine on-chain lending demand. Circle provides the underlying financial infrastructure, Aave offers the lending market, and this combination indeed has the potential to bring traditional financial capital into DeFi.
Yet, AAVE is still following the overall market down, and the short-term price hasn't given much credit to this performance. I believe deposit growth carries more weight than just a partnership announcement. Going forward, we need to see if borrowing volume and protocol revenue can grow together, since deposits do not equal income, and income does not equal buying pressure for the AAVE token.
If Arc continues to attract capital and lending demand expands simultaneously, Aave's fundamentals have a chance to strengthen further. The market's temporary skepticism doesn't mean this opportunity isn't worth pursuing.Today's outlook
$BTC rebound to 82,700 to 83,100 before considering short positions, first target 81,250, second target 80,400. Alternatively, wait for the 4H close below 79,500 before chasing shorts, target 77,500. Close positions if the 4H close recovers to 83,450. No long positions today.
$ETH rebound to 2,495 to 2,520 before considering short positions, first target 2,420, second target 2,360. Alternatively, wait for the 4H close below 2,340 before chasing shorts, target 2,200. Close positions if the 4H close recovers to 2,540.
$ZEC rebound to 1,195 to 1,215 before considering short positions, first target 1,115. Short accounts still dominate, stop losses must be strict. Close positions if the 4H close recovers to 1,248.
Long positions are crowded; if CPI is soft, a rapid short squeeze is very likely. Those with positions should reduce to half or less before CPI.
All three coins have 4H closes below EMA20/50, RSI between 30-36, indicating a sharp short-term decline. Retail investors are still adding longs during the drop. BTC long-short account ratio is 1.52, ETH 2.10, indicating crowded longs. ETH positions dropped 3.2% in the past day; almost all liquidations were longs.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 The fish tail entered again, the emotions are too intense, constantly fantasizing that the market will follow their own expectations. Clearly thinking of just taking a small bite, seeing the support hold, the selling pressure weaken, and the support become effective, why not exit? After a 50% drop, they want to leverage up, want to go all in for a quick in-and-out, completely controlled by emotions. Is it hard for a puppet to have self-awareness? 2026.10.1310.13 Gold Spot Morning Analysis Share
After the indicator is oversold, there is a need for recovery. The RSI indicator on the 1-hour chart is hovering at a low level between 20-40, which is a characteristic of weak consolidation. Once it breaks below the short-term support at 4140, the downside space will directly open to 4100 or even lower.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, from the high point of 4315 downwards, there is a clear descending channel. The rebound highs are decreasing to 4220. Currently, the price is hovering around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. As long as it cannot hold above 4200, all upward movements are just feeding chips to the bears.
Reference:
4180-4170 zone, watch 4140, 4110, 4080 What really stirred the market this week wasn’t a sudden surge in any particular sector, but the repeated shifts in macro pricing 😐
CPI/PPI and retail data are about to be released, and the market is holding its breath.
On Wednesday, the US September CPI will be released first, followed by PPI and retail sales on Thursday. Currently, the market’s pricing for an October rate hike has dropped to about 19%, but the expectation for a 25 basis point hike in December is fully priced in. The market’s divergence lies in this timing gap.
Wall Street’s mainstream expectation is interesting — overall CPI might be pushed up to 0.57% or even 0.6% by oil prices, but core CPI is only 0.16%-0.2%. In other words, institutions are preemptively guiding the market to focus on the logic that “core inflation hasn’t spread.” The data hasn’t come out yet, but the explanatory framework is already set. However, optimistic expectations don’t equal optimistic outcomes; the market’s excitement has already been raised.
If retail sales remain resilient on Wednesday, short-term bets on rate cuts will continue to cool down; if the data weakens significantly, growth assets and crypto might get some breathing room. Before the direction is clear, rushing to place heavy bets is just gambling.
Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” — don’t rush to price it as a positive
On the 11th, Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire, but Zelensky’s response was subtle: he supports the ceasefire but insists on reciprocity, demanding Russia simultaneously stop airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy facilities. Russia hasn’t confirmed directly either, only saying “contacts are ongoing.”
Whether this can be implemented is still uncertain. But if oil prices fall because of it, that’s good news for inflation expectations in the short term and indirectly benefits risk assets. Don’t treat it as a certainty; just consider it a variable.
TSMC Q3 — the real focus isn’t on revenue numbers
Q3 revenue was 1.49 trillion NTD, up 51% year-on-year and a staggering 18% quarter-on-quarter, already announced ahead of schedule, exceeding expectations without surprise. The core focus of the October 15 earnings report is management’s outlook on 2027 capital expenditure and gross margin.
There’s a big divergence: the highest and lowest target prices from six foreign institutions differ by 42.8%, and 2027 capital expenditure estimates range from $85 billion to $90 billion. The ramp-up of the 2nm process will dilute gross margin by 3-4 percentage points, overseas fabs will dilute another 2-3 points, totaling a real pressure of 5-7 points. The earnings report itself isn’t a bombshell, but if management’s guidance is overly optimistic, it will be a strong boost to sentiment in the AI industry chain.
Back to the market, the three major coins are all waiting for signals
$BTC is currently oscillating around 81,000-82,500; after previously testing above 84,000 but failing to hold, it fell about 2% intraday. The 82,000-84,000 range is a concentrated resistance zone; several rebounds had mediocre volume, and funds are clearly waiting for data to land. The key support is near 80,000; breaking below would make sentiment more cautious. October historically tends to be strong, but memories of a sharp downturn after mid-October last year remain, so volatility risk can’t be ignored.
$ETH is currently around 2,430-2,500, having broken below the previous observation level of 2,930, dropping over 5% in the past 24 hours. Pressure mainly comes from Ethereum spot ETFs, which saw a net outflow of $542 million last week; BlackRock’s ETHA alone withdrew $477 million. Institutional funds are pulling out, and on-chain there are large transfers from Ethereum Foundation-related wallets and F2Pool co-founders to exchanges, signaling selling pressure. The short-term resistance is 2,550-2,600; the psychological support at 2,400 must hold. Without new inflows, an independent breakout is basically unrealistic.
$SOL has fallen even harder, breaking below $105 with a 24-hour drop exceeding 5.7%. The previous 142-148 range is broken; now 104-105 is the short-term support observation zone, and below that is the $100 round number. On-chain data shows about 32% of sell orders, and long liquidations are accelerating. $SOL’s volatility has always been greater than BTC and ETH; don’t rush to catch it without signals.
Finally, some heartfelt advice
At this stage, don’t go all-in, and don’t bet heavily on direction with a single trade. Before macro data lands, all technical levels can be breached within minutes. Control drawdowns first, then talk about compounding. Probability, rhythm, and discipline are much more important than getting one call right. Before the data comes out, holding back is the best move. 🙃
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ The market has fallen back to around 80,000, but judging from the current trend, the decline may not be fully complete yet, and the rebound strength is relatively limited. In the short term, it is crucial to focus on the 80,000 level; once it is effectively broken, there is a risk of accelerated decline again. Recently, crypto ETF funds have been under continuous pressure, and net outflows from institutional funds have also affected market confidence. Without new positive news to stimulate the market, it remains difficult to see a strong rebound in the short term. Bulls have already experienced a round of concentrated liquidation, and the overall market currently leans towards bearish dominance. This week, key attention should be paid to Wednesday's US CPI data and Friday's speech by Walsh. Before clear direction is given by news, the market is expected to remain in a state of oscillation and observation. Key focus levels today: BTC: Support at 80,000, resistance at 83,000. ETH: Support at 2,400; I personally believe the possibility of this level being broken is still quite high. If broken, further attention should be paid to around 2,350; resistance at 2,500. SOL: Support at 100, resistance at 107. It is especially important to note that the daily chart structures of ETH and SOL have recently shown a downward oscillation trend, overall weaker than BTC. If the market experiences another significant pullback, ETH and SOL may face more obvious downward pressure. Other altcoins are also mainly in adjustment, with the overall market performance weak. As for whether this BTC upcycle has ended? I think it is still too early to draw conclusions. The area around 80,000 is a very important watershed; whether this level can be held... $XRP Damn it! XRP's recent surge gave me goosebumps, can't an experienced trader see the significance of the 1.345 level? 💎🙌
From a pure technical perspective, the volume-price divergence is outrageous, all the candlesticks have upper shadows, clearly showing the big players are quietly distributing. Don't talk to me about fundamentals, the market already gave me the answer—smart money is exiting.
I placed a short order at 1.345, stop loss at 1.38, target initially at 1.28. Don't ask, just act, this shakeout won't stop until it flushes out a batch of people.
If you want to follow, set up ambushes on the token market card below, keep your position under 10%, contract leverage risk is extremely high, profit and loss at your own risk. 👇👇👇【$SUI directly integrates an entire public chain this time】
The Sui Foundation has strategically invested $30 million in DATA Network, directly migrating its independent public chain into Sui, with the original chain set to be retired later. This project no longer intends to maintain its own public chain, instead transferring its technology and business into the Sui ecosystem. This is the most noteworthy aspect of this deal.
DATA's Trace has already registered over 250 million AI training data contribution records, processing more than 3 million receipts daily. Now it brings its established business into Sui, with Walrus handling data storage and Sui taking over the underlying protocol. What Sui gains is not just an AI concept, but a ready-made data business, user demand, and application scenarios.
This investment layout looks promising. The biggest fear for public chains nowadays is not insufficient performance, but overhyped technology that ends up unused. By directly integrating AI data business, Sui saves the cost of duplicating independent public chain construction and gives practical grounding to the AI narrative of both Sui and Walrus.
Of course, the $30 million is not a direct buy of SUI tokens, and the migration will take time. But if Trace's business continues to grow and more AI applications start using Sui and Walrus, this investment could become a real growth driver for the Sui ecosystem, not just another piece of good news.Unwilling to cut losses and hoping for a rebound, afraid to hold on to profits and waiting for buying pressure to fade, structural damage—why can't we overcome our own emotions?Active Buy/Sell Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$ETH showed a buying bias in the first two segments, with the buying proportion declining in the final segment. The overall active buy rate was 61.3%, dropping to 51.9% in the last segment, with the price down by 0.18% during this period.Mainstream coins collectively plummeted.
BTC fell below 82,000, ETH plunged 5% to 2,417, with LINK, SOL and others dropping more than 7%. Market panic is spreading, bulls are bleeding heavily.
$BTC Analysis: 15-minute and 1-hour candlesticks have all broken down, daily chart is approaching the last defense at 80,400. ETF capital outflow combined with large holder sell-offs are the main reasons. Currently, this is an emotional sell-off, do not catch the falling knife. Strategy: wait for a sharp rebound to 82,500-83,000 that fails, then short at highs, or patiently wait near 80,400 for a clear stop-loss signal (such as a 15-minute bullish divergence) before lightly going long, stop loss if it breaks 80,000.
$ETH Analysis: Current price 2,417, extremely close to the key 2,400 level. Continuous ETF bleeding combined with on-chain selling pressure makes ETH weaker than BTC, with all moving averages in bearish alignment. Strategy: if 2,400 breaks, look down to 2,350. A rebound to 2,480-2,500 is a shorting opportunity.
Long-term and short-term: The long-term is still in a super cycle, but short-term defense is necessary. This week's CPI data and US stock market trends are key variables; after panic selling subsides, there will be a recovery. Currently, both bulls and bears are suffering losses, reduce leverage to survive. $SOL just touched 113 and then dropped to 101, do SOL bulls still dare to hold?
SOL fell all the way from around 120 to 101.56 this week, a pullback of over 13 points in seven days, and another drop of over 6 points in 24 hours. Just after hitting 113, it almost hit double digits, quite brutal.
What's stranger is that as the price goes down, the contract open interest increased by 1.4% compared to yesterday. Positions haven't been liquidated; some are even adding, but this number doesn't distinguish between longs and shorts, so don't rush to take it as a bottoming signal.
The fee rate is almost zero, slightly negative; hourly moving averages at 107 and 110 are pressing from above. Currently near 104, the low at 101.56 and the changes in open interest are more worth watching than just calling for a rebound or further drop.
For those trading contracts, are you watching to see if 101 can hold, or are you waiting for the open interest direction to reveal itself first?
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 US spot SOL ETF saw a net outflow of $24.8 million last week, ending a 14-week streak of inflows; today, Hong Kong's second SOL spot ETF was listed, showing divergence between the US and Asia
US outflows, Hong Kong opens
$SOL is truly diverging here: the US spot SOL ETF had a net outflow of $24.8 million last week, abruptly ending 14 consecutive weeks of inflows.
On the other hand, Hong Kong's second SOL spot ETF was listed today. With US outflows and Hong Kong opening up, money is moving in opposite directions on both sides.
The 14-week continuous inflow suddenly stopped; the $SOL ETF narrative is really lacking short-term momentum now. $ETH The layout from last night was indeed solid, opening a 100x short at 2528.99, now the current price is 2447.46 (mark price 2447.09), with an unrealized profit of 323.84%. This is slightly retraced from the morning's 365%, but still a big gain. Confident that it will definitely drop today, this confidence comes from the market's evident weakness.
The 4-hour candlestick has been continuously bearish from 2578.44, hitting a low of 2407.50, currently down -3.22%, with volume expanding to 6.835 billion. Although there is a lower shadow pullback, the news of the "Payy cross-chain bridge attack" suppresses the market; bulls without real capital backing are just illusions, and any rebound is just an escape opportunity, with the opening price of 2528.99 firmly pressing down.
The 100x leverage is close to the previous low at 2407, now slightly rebounding to 2447. If there is a sharp pullback to 2500, profits will be instantly drained. Since it is certain to drop today, absolutely no adding positions or holding the order; use a trailing stop to lock in profits and protect the break-even line, withdraw the principal first, and leave a base position as someone else's money flying away. Watch the 2400-2380 support; if volume shrinks and it can't hold, look to 2300; if volume expands and it breaks back above 2500 or breaks 2407 with a long lower shadow, take all profits and don't get attached to the fight.📉 ZEC dropped 31%. The low point climax is under pressure
Fell from $1,698 to $1,161 within 16 days.
The 4-hour distribution zone resolved downward. The SC near $1,100 rebounded to $1,350, rejected at the supply zone, and ZEC just lost the CHoCH at $1,205.
Now it's the second test:
Hold $1,100 → form a bottom, $1,250 to $1,350 back in sight.
Break below $1,100 → continue to fall.
No position building before this level is confirmed.
Is $1,100 a bottom or a second round of unlocking?
Not financial advice. $BTC $ZEC $ETH This UNI long position has been held for a long time. There were actually large floating profits at one point, and it could have been closed gracefully.
Greed prevented timely profit-taking, and later the market turned downward. Even though I clearly saw the trend was off, I still held on with unrealistic hopes.
I knew in my heart that I should take profits or cut losses, but hesitated when it came to action—a typical case of knowing but not doing.
Reluctant to exit when profitable, I waited until all profits were wiped out, holding on until it turned into a deep floating loss, and finally closed the position painfully.
Never fight against the market with high leverage positions; if it’s time to exit, be decisive. In the future, always set take-profit and stop-loss orders in advance. Don’t stubbornly hold on; preserving capital is the top priority. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% Новый отчет от P73 CryptoMarket Monitor дает "пищу" для новых гипотез. Самая положительная для тех, кто ждет отката цены для закупок или закрытия шортов - снижение может быть быстрым лонг-сквизом. И занять всего три дня, начиная с текущего. То есть 13-15 октября. Причина для такой гипотезы - на новой дневной свече сразу 21 актив, включая #ETH, #BNB, #DOGE, #SOL, #XRP - показали метку потенциального лоя на дневной ТФ. Также такие метки показали TOTAL, TOTAL2, TOTAL3. Поэтому если падение активов $BTC ZEC consolidated sideways for two days before suddenly surging violently, essentially a concentrated sweep of short positions' stop losses!
Previously, it consolidated sideways for two consecutive days, with a large number of short positions' stop losses accumulating above the range. This sudden upward surge triggered stop losses on short positions one by one, and the stop loss orders automatically converted into buy orders, forcibly pushing the price higher.
This is also confirmed by smart money data, showing that shorts are largely in floating losses, with the profit ratio just over 30%. The rise driven by stop loss sweeps lacks real buying support. Once all stop losses in the market are consumed, the momentum of this surge will be exhausted.
After stop loss harvesting is complete, the market is very likely to turn downward. Don't be misled by this sharp rise; the area after stop losses are swept is precisely a high value-for-money zone for short positions.
$ZEC $VVV with a cost as low as $3.77 Smart money reduced its position again after half a month, expecting a single coin profit of over $9,848,000🤩
3 hours ago, he deposited 100,908 VVV into the exchange, about $2.34 million; in the past 4 months, he has accumulated deposits of 562,000 tokens (average price $21.26), with a total value of $11.97 million. If sold, the return rate will be as high as 464%
Wallet address 0x331C9A4Dd35FEb0147E985aE7d378AAed141c427New Crypto ETF Regulations in Thailand: Only BTC and ETH Recognized, 80% Position Limit
Thailand's regulatory authority has officially issued new rules for crypto ETFs, opening a compliant channel for digital asset investment, but the threshold is high.
According to the regulations, initially only Bitcoin and Ethereum are allowed to be included in ETFs; other coins are currently excluded. More importantly, funds must ensure that on average at least 80% of the net asset value (NAV) is continuously exposed to a single crypto asset, meaning products cannot "mix" multiple coins to diversify risk; the investment targets must be highly concentrated.
The new rules are expected to take effect from October 16. This move is seen as a cautious step by Thailand in the crypto financial sector—embracing mainstream assets while controlling risk within manageable limits through high position restrictions. For investors, compliant investment tools for BTC and ETH are about to launch, but the high volatility of a single asset remains an unavoidable challenge.$BTC
Bitcoin rose from 57,000 to 87,300 completing the major Wave 1, currently in the major Wave 2 correction, with the overall structure likely forming a WXY wave pattern. It is now in the X wave consolidation phase. Inside the X wave, it tends to follow a 335 structure; after rising from around 80,000 to 84,000 completing an ABC pattern, the current decline may also be running in an ABC form, expected to test near 81,000 before completion.
In the short term, if it continues to dip to around 81,000 today, it could be an opportunity to go short-term long. Overall, it is just a narrow range oscillation structure, so it is not advisable to be too bearish. Those holding long positions at low levels that are currently underwater should watch if this level can hold and the decline ends quickly.
Ethereum's structure is synchronized, having risen from 1,500 completing the major Wave 1, currently in the major Wave 2 consolidation forming a WXY structure, now in the X wave rebound consolidation. The decline starting near 2,400, if following an ABC structure, is expected to find support and then rally again to complete the X wave. Operationally, it is recommended to buy on dips, and watch for rebound opportunities in other coins. Pay attention to exiting when the X wave completes. Woke up this morning to see the crypto market all in red again.
There are four main clues behind this drop:
1️⃣ US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening: rising oil prices intensify inflation concerns, putting pressure on market expectations for rate cuts.
2️⃣ $BTC spot ETF outflows: institutional buying weakens, and BTC's rebound lacks sustained support.
3️⃣ Concentrated long liquidations: BTC breaks key price levels, triggering leveraged liquidations, further amplifying the decline.
4️⃣ US inflation data approaching: before CPI and PPI releases, funds reduce risk exposure, and market sentiment turns cautious.
Macro pressure is the backdrop, fund outflows are the driving force, and leveraged liquidations may act as an accelerator.
Next, the focus is on whether BTC can stop falling and if there will be real buying after the liquidation wave. Don’t rush to bottom-fish or conclude the bull market is over; watch the direction before making moves. $ZEC has gone completely crazy on this trade! Opened a 50x short at 1271.59, smashed down to 1177.95 (mark price 1170.73), floating profit skyrocketed to 396.59%, with a single-day plunge of -6.87%. This wave of shorts is absolutely feasting.
The 4-hour candlestick chart shows a continuous bearish trend from 1348.77, with a large bearish candle plunging straight to 1122.58, volume at 1.241 billion. The page pop-up "NU7 upgrade disables v4 trading" is just adding insult to injury; without real money to take the position, it's weak, and all rebounds are just escape tickets. The opening price at 1271.59 is firmly suppressed, bulls are just a facade.
The 50x leverage is hanging just above the previous low at 1122.58; if a wick pulls back to 1200-1250, profits will be instantly drained. Absolutely no adding to the position or holding the trade; use a trailing stop to lock in the break-even line, withdraw the principal first, and leave the remaining position as someone else's money flying away. Watch the 1120-1100 support; if volume shrinks and it can't hold, keep the remaining position and watch 1000; if volume expands and it holds above 1200 or breaks 1122 with a long lower shadow, take all profits immediately.📉 ZEC Gives Back 31%. Climax Low Under Fire
$1,698 → $1,161 in 16 days.
4H distribution resolved lower. The SC near $1,100 bounced to $1,350, got rejected at supply, and ZEC just lost the $1,205 CHoCH.
Now the secondary test:
Hold $1,100 → base forms, $1,250 to $1,350 back in play.
Lose $1,100 → breakdown continues.
No size until the level confirms.
Base at $1,100, or round two of the unwind?
Not financial advice. $BTC $ZEC $ETH Enterprises have net purchased 193,000 BTC this year, with just 2 companies buying 197,000 BTC.
In other words, excluding these two, the rest of the enterprises are net sellers.📊
A latest corporate Bitcoin holdings report, some key figures:
1️⃣ Enterprises collectively hold about 1.64 million BTC, accounting for about 7.8% of total supply
2️⃣ This year, enterprises spent $15.7 billion buying coins, about one-third less than the same period last year
3️⃣ Strategy alone holds about 848,000 BTC
4️⃣ Other treasury companies combined have only bought about 8,000 BTC this year
5️⃣ Large miners sold about 32,800 BTC, with funds mostly redirected to AI computing power
My take:
🔹 Corporate buying is still ongoing but increasingly concentrated at the top; if one or two slow down, demand structure will change
🔹 Companies that followed last year’s treasury-building trend have basically stopped buying this year
🔹 Compared to holding proportions, I’m more concerned about the monthly new purchase amounts
Do you think the concentration of buying in a few companies is a strength or a risk?👇
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please be cautious.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #CorporateHoldings一句话定位 Osmosis 是 Cosmos 生态里最正宗的 DEX / 跨链流动性中枢，IBC 打通几十条链、有 ProtoRev 套利回收、Superfluid Staking、集中流动性。 但 OSMO 是“通胀型治理+安全币”，不是 Uni 那种费用直接灌满持币人的模型；生态热度被 Solana / ETH L2 抢走后，币价非常惨。 1）它到底在干啥 Cosmos SDK 做的 AMM DEX，钱包用 Keplr / Leap，IBC 连 ATOM / TIA / STRIDE / NTRN / SUI / APT 等 50–115 条链 功能：跨链 swap、集中流动性、LP、借贷（Mars）、流动性质押（Stride 迁移过来）、ProtoRev 链内套利 代币用途：Gas、治理、质押保安全、LP 激励、部分手续费/买回燃烧 竞品：Uniswap（ETH）、Raydium（SOL）、THORChain（原生跨链）、Curve（稳定币） 2）代币数据（2026-10） 价格：0.034–0.037 USDT 市值：2700 万–3000 万刀，排名 600–750 名 流通U.S. tech stocks and the crypto market are under pressure simultaneously, with risks and opportunities coexisting. Currently, short positions have been closed for profit, securing gains first. Both oversold rebounds and going long or short carry significant risks, so we continue to wait for the next opportunity.
Last night, the U.S. stock market showed clear divergence: the Nasdaq fell 0.44%, and SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 5.97%. BTC rebounded but then fell back below $83,000.
I am mainly focusing on three changes:
1. Storage sector: Progress in ChangXin Memory technology has raised concerns about industry competition, and SanDisk continues to adjust. However, the technical news mainly involves DRAM and does not imply that SanDisk's NAND business has deteriorated.
2. Capital structure: Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million. Meanwhile, leveraged activity in the crypto market has shifted more toward altcoins, keeping short-term volatility risk high.
3. Macro environment: Rising oil prices increase inflationary pressure. The CPI on the 14th and PPI on the 15th of this week will be key market observation points.
My judgment:
No clear trend reversal signals have appeared yet. For BTC, the key focus is whether it can hold around $82,000. For SanDisk, it is necessary to observe whether the previous downtrend shows signs of improvement.
Two types of operations require caution now:
Blindly chasing shorts after a decline risks encountering a rebound; trying to bottom-fish after a large drop may result in buying halfway down.
Rather than trying to predict the bottom, I prefer to preserve capital and wait for macro data to be released, then combine market capital and price structure to judge opportunities.
There is no need to participate in the market every day; controlling drawdowns is more important than catching every rebound.
$BTC $BTC is currently still in a weak recovery phase in the overall crypto market, with the market sentiment generally cautious. Although mainstream coins have shown slight rebounds, the overall downward structure has not been truly repaired.
BTC is currently only experiencing a technical minor rebound, with a 2.6% decline over the past seven days, and the major trend shows no signs of reversal. The short-term market remains mainly in a consolidation and wait-and-see mode, with a key support level to hold at $82,000. Strong resistance is concentrated in the $84,500 to $85,000 range. Only if the price can effectively stabilize above this resistance zone will the current rebound have the momentum to continue upward. Conversely, if the $82,000 support is effectively broken, the market will likely enter another bottom-finding phase, and downside risk remains.October 13｜When BTC falls back, don’t mistake active trading volume for faster fund arrivals
This morning, BTC’s rolling 24-hour price is still declining, while Binance’s BTC spot trading volume exceeded 1.1 billion USDT. Trading is very active, but this does not mean that on-chain transfers are faster: transactions within exchanges and the Bitcoin network recording a payment into a block are two different processes.
Bitcoin transaction fees depend more on the data space occupied by the transaction, not a fixed percentage of the transfer amount. Sending a large amount of BTC is not necessarily more expensive than a small payment just because of the amount; how the wallet organizes the transaction and the competition for block space at the time also affect the fee.
Fund arrival is not an instantaneous switch. Broadcasting the transaction, entering a block, and subsequent blocks adding confirmations are different stages. More confirmations increase the difficulty of rewriting the record, but “marked as sent” cannot be directly taken as the payment being securely received, and confirmation times are not guaranteed.
Therefore, today’s price drop cannot explain fee levels, and active trading cannot guarantee on-chain confirmations. Beyond market fluctuations, one must distinguish network waiting times, platform crediting rules, and personal custody risks. BTC’s public ledger can verify records but will not correct wrong addresses or recover lost keys. $BTC #BTC
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.Brothers, SNDK dropped 22% overnight, but S&P actually upgraded the rating at this time
$SNDK $1,445
SNDK closed down nearly 6% on Monday at $1,487.33, continuing to fall to around $1,461 after hours. Your quoted $1,445 is basically the after-hours low area. From the high of $1,909 on September 22, the pullback has exceeded 22%.
Three major negative factors hit simultaneously. ChangXin Memory announced a key breakthrough in the 4F² next-generation DRAM architecture and plans to launch server memory products by the end of the year, directly impacting pricing expectations. The Korean market fell further after the holiday, with Samsung and SK Hynix’s combined approximately $40 billion buyback plan ending early, removing support buying; SK Hynix fell over 4%. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan warned that the biggest obstacle to AI infrastructure expansion may be financing capability.
But S&P upgraded the rating on the same day. S&P raised SNDK from BB+ to BBB, citing AI-driven storage demand and a zero-debt balance sheet, expecting free cash flow to exceed $23 billion in fiscal 2027. Analyst consensus target price is $2,137, still about 44% upside.
$1,430-$1,450 is the after-hours low area, a key short-term observation point. The Q1 earnings report on October 29 is the next verification node.
Discuss in the comments, which do you trust more: S&P’s rating upgrade or the sector panic? 👇
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 POL: A hundred-billion-level native public chain token, why are even smart money unwilling to go long?
POL (formerly MATIC), as the core asset of the Polygon ecosystem, has a market cap of $1.09 billion and should enjoy the halo of being the "Ethereum L2 leader." The reality is: a slight 0.57% drop in 24h, trading volume only $2.23 million, daily turnover rate less than 0.2%, smart money net short, bulls wiped out. A "neglected" public chain token is undergoing the harshest value reassessment.
Market data: The "zombie supply" of liquidity exhaustion
Current price $0.1023, amplitude only $0.1014-$0.1075, extremely low volatility. $2.23 million trading volume is negligible compared to the $1 billion market cap, meaning the vast majority of tokens are locked, staked, or deeply trapped and immobile. The price doesn't fall because of insufficient selling pressure, and it doesn't rise due to lack of buying demand—this is a "liquidity black hole" more terrifying than a crash. With fierce competition in the L2 track (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, zkSync), POL has lost its "uniqueness" premium and has become a beta asset.
Core judgment
POL is currently in a triple death spiral of "fundamental marginalization, liquidity exhaustion, and narrative failure." Without major architectural upgrades or tokenomics restructuring, once the psychological $0.10 support is broken, it will begin a bottom-seeking journey.GTC current price is 0.2503, after pulling back to the 0.5 quantile line at 0.240 it failed to hold, showing a clear exhaustion of bullish momentum. The order book shows active selling pressure suppressing the buying side, and the pattern of high-level oscillation correction is already forming. On the liquidation map, a large amount of short order liquidity is stacked between 0.28 and 0.29, so the main force will most likely first induce a pump to sweep that area, then reverse to shake out positions with a wick. Short-term support is at 0.23, resistance at 0.28, and the range in between is a meat grinder. I just put my thermos on the windowsill, but a car downstairs is blocking the fire lane, so I have to shout out.
In terms of operation, do not chase longs; wait near 0.23 for right-side confirmation before acting. If the price rebounds to the 0.27 to 0.28 range with shrinking volume, you can lightly try shorting, with a stop loss above 0.285, first take profit target at 0.24, second at 0.23. If 0.23 holds with volume and closes with a lower shadow, consider going long, with a stop loss at 0.225 and a target to revisit 0.25. At this position now, just watch the market, don’t rush in to be fuel.
$GTC
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
@OKX星球 🎭 HYPE trembles on the edge of 85, ZEC digests the rebound, OKB grinds below 125
$HYPE 84.929, down 1.22%, hovering around 85. The 85 support line, backed by 97% buyback revenue, nearly broke. Big brother Maji has already cut losses on HYPE, large holders are exiting, but there is capital defending the 85 level. CPI data impacts HYPE more than Bitcoin because it is inherently a highly volatile altcoin; if data exceeds expectations, it will fall more, if below expectations, it will rebound more.
$ZEC 1223.04, down 0.71%, after an 8.9% rebound yesterday, it slightly fell today to digest gains. Privacy coins are naturally volatile, rising one day and falling the next, with no independent direction before CPI. Such coins follow the overall market during rate hike cycles, with capital ignoring fundamentals.
$OKB 124.51, down 1.14%, grinding below 125. Platform coins move with the market, lacking independent trends but are more resistant to declines than smaller coins. No major moves expected before CPI.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 On October 12, Ansem posted that both institutional and retail altcoin sentiment and positions are at multi-year lows, and future funds will concentrate on a few fundamentally strong tokens. The data is half correct: $BTC market dominance is about 59.3%, with a total market cap of $2.81 trillion. The commonly cited threshold for a full rotation is market dominance falling below 55%, currently about 4 points away. The unspoken side is that low positions themselves don’t provide a timing point; the low can persist for several more quarters; stablecoins exceeding $300 billion also inflate the denominator, making altcoin actual share thinner than it appears. $BTC fell below $82,000 today; my judgment is that market dominance remains above 57% this month, with the market staying focused on individual tokens. I will change my view if market dominance closes below 55%. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. In the current market environment, I believe the pressure on btc has not yet been relieved. Let's objectively evaluate three macro indicators first. First, oil prices. Oil prices have approached around $110, a level to be cautious about. The rise in oil prices is not just an energy price issue; more importantly, it may rekindle market concerns about inflation. If energy prices continue to rise, the Federal Reserve will be more passive in monetary policy, and market expectations for rate cuts may also be suppressed. Although rising oil prices do not necessarily mean inflation will get out of control, they do increase the uncertainty of inflation easing. Second, U.S. Treasury yields. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, and the market is reassessing interest rates, inflation, and returns on holding dollar assets. If yields keep hitting new highs, btc valuations usually face greater pressure. For BTC, this means funds may become more cautious and watchful. Third, the U.S. dollar index. The dollar continues to strengthen, reflecting the relative attractiveness of dollar assets and increased market demand for the dollar. When the dollar strengthens and U.S. Treasury yields rise simultaneously, it adds extra pressure on BTC. If the market only experiences short-term pressure, then after a price drop, there is usually a sharp rebound with strong recovery. But if the macro environment continues to deteriorate and BTC rebounds lack sufficient buying power, then every rebound may face selling pressure. Currently, the btc market at least shows that the market's support strength is not strong enough, and buyers have not yet shown obvious initiative. However, just one or two weak rebounds are not enough to confirm the subsequentThis is not a rebound; it's like CPR for my empty position account, right? I opened the market this morning, $MAGIC buying pressure got stronger, the pullback didn't break the support, so I decisively went long, entering at 0.10301. At that time, I only reminded everyone not to rush to chase, wait for confirmation.
During the intraday repeated fluctuations, I thought it would grind all day, but it pushed up on its own. Once it hit 0.12178, the return was +365.4%, feeling great, brothers, this profit feels good, those in the car should have woken up smiling.
Don't lose patience in the fluctuations and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move. Hold on if the trend is intact; run if it breaks the level. Don't fall in love with stocks.
Position actions: first take profit on 70%, protect the remaining 30% at cost price. Take profits when you should, let profits run if it continues to rise, and don't let gains turn uncomfortable on a pullback.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. The market is not short of opportunities, but it lacks patience. I will notify you immediately, waiting for good news.
$ETH $SOL The big market money has all fled, but it's not the same group of people running away. Let me explain it to you slowly!
This morning on my way to work, I looked at these two charts repeatedly, three times in total.
The first time I watched for the spectacle: the screen was full of red. BTC contracts saw an outflow of 1.839 billion in 24 hours, ETH outflowed 1.073 billion, SOL outflowed 307 million—a bloodbath.
The second time I looked for the key points: what about spot? BTC only outflowed 194 million, ETH 269 million, SOL 5.85 million. The money running out of contracts is nearly 10 times that of spot.
The third time I understood: the ones dumping the market aren’t us holding spot, but those leveraging contracts. They are liquidating positions, and we are just watching the show.
To put it plainly, this wave is called deleveraging, not a collapse of faith. Leverage dies fast, but after it’s done, the selling pressure on spot isn’t as heavy as imagined.
There’s another signal: on the 5-minute level, BTC contracts have turned green, with an inflow of 53.77 million. Someone can’t resist reaching out to catch the falling knife.
So here’s how I see it next:
1. After a sharp drop, there must be a rebound. The market rebounds quickly after leverage is cleared. But the 30-day outlook is still deep red; big money is still running, so don’t mistake the rebound for a reversal.
2. I’m watching three signals: CPI landing, whether contract fund flows can continue to turn green, and whether 82000 can be reclaimed.
3. How to operate? I split into batches, start with small positions to test, then add once stable. No chasing highs or panic selling; anyone touching leverage these days is foolish.
Finally, a reminder to everyone: candlesticks are drawn for emotions, but fund flows are the real votes of money. Follow the money, not the feelings.$BTC $BZ surged early morning, are these the only reasons?
BTC suddenly spiked early morning, and the market is searching everywhere for answers. Currently, two clues seem most plausible, but both lack solid proof.
First, geopolitical risk premium easing. Trump hinted at Russia-Ukraine pushing for an energy ceasefire. If the market believes the risk of supply disruption is decreasing, oil prices fall, inflation pressure expectations ease, and funds dare to re-enter risk assets, BTC, gold, and tech stocks would all benefit. But the agreement is not confirmed yet, so this is speculative trading.
Second, short squeeze. BTC, ETH, and altcoins all surged sharply together, resembling a concentrated short covering. Previously, when BTC rebounded from around 80,000, increased short liquidations also occurred. However, there is currently no real-time data to prove that this buying wave mainly comes from liquidations.
Summary: Geopolitical easing provides a rationale, and short covering adds momentum. But there is no evidence that new funds have truly entered the market. Whether the rally can continue depends on subsequent volume and news developments, so don’t rush to chase. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Big Brother Maji's latest positions: low pressure close, total position 58,266,900 U.
BTC｜40X short, 243.96 coins, average price 84070, profit +332,100 U, fees +55,800 U, liquidation at 107738.01.
ETH｜25X long, 7417.4 coins, average price 2546.23, loss -374,100 U, fees -13,000 U, liquidation at 1645.26.
HYPE｜5X short, 235,300 coins, average price 64.0867, loss -4,495,800 U, cumulative fees +1,029,800 U, liquidation at 107.16, floating loss receding.
Hedging pattern unchanged, the key is still heavy short positions on HYPE. Funding fees steadily collected, hedging account showing a deficit. The whole market is watching: will he adjust his positions?