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Where is Bitcoin headed next? Check the liquidation map, Day 2
Compared to yesterday: Price 84,142 → 82,784 (-1.6%)
Yesterday I said $BTC would go up, but I was wrong. Cumulative record: 0 right, 1 wrong.
1. Today's data
Below, the cumulative long liquidation intensity is $1.1 billion; above, the cumulative short liquidation intensity is $2 billion.
2. Key price levels to watch
82,000: Lower edge of the dense long position area; breaking below here will accelerate the first wave of forced liquidations.
79,000: The densest segment of long positions; the buffer starts to thin from here.
84,500: The first cluster of short positions; one of the highest bars on the entire chart.
85,000: The second cluster of short positions; breaking through here will cause the most intense squeeze.
3. Possible trends
Upward: Standing above 83,332 starts squeezing short positions; covering shorts is itself buying → 84,449 → 85,013 → 86,141 with almost no shorts above, resistance is very thin.
Downward: Breaking below 82,000 → 79,467, the densest long position area → once a chain of forced liquidations opens, the buffer is very thin.
4. My judgment
Currently, the cumulative short liquidation intensity reaches $2 billion, while longs are only $1 billion. Data-wise, it's easier to move toward the direction with the least resistance. I think it will rise to $90,000, but current data doesn't allow it yet; it will still oscillate between 81,000 and 85,000 with no clear trend.
What do you think?PONS 7-day -31.4% still searching for a bottom
At noon after lunch, I checked the top decliners and immediately spotted the names that dropped the most at the front. $PONS dropped -19.5% in the past 24h, currently at 0.279 USDT.
Its 24h low touched 0.2735 USDT, and the high reached 0.3597 USDT. After falling from the high, the current price is just a step away from the lowest point.
Looking at a longer term, PONS is down -31.4% over 7 days, indicating this decline has lasted several days. The contract funding rate is still +0.0050%, meaning longs are still paying shorts.
On external news, South Korea is pushing to block multiple crypto sites including KuCoin and MEXC. Looking at related coins horizontally, $ETH is down -2.3% in 24h, $SOL -4.8%, but none fell as deeply as it did.
Told the team, seeing the 7-day continuous drop and the funding rate not yet negative, the team moved PONS to the last row today, not planning to touch it for now, waiting for it to stabilize someday. Sự kiện: Chỉ số Realized Cap HODL Waves từ Glassnode công bố lượng Bitcoin không hề di chuyển trong hơn 1 năm qua hiện chiếm gần 67% tổng nguồn cung lưu hành, tiệm cận các mức kỷ lục từng thấy trước các chu kỳ tăng trưởng parabol. Notes Phân tích chi tiết: Tâm lý nắm giữ kiên định (Diamond Hands): Bất chấp việc giá đã trải qua các đợt thanh lý đòn bẩy dữ dội từ đỉnh về 80.000 USD, nhóm nhà đầu tư dài hạn (Long-Term Holders) vẫn kiên quyết không bán tháo. Họ xem các đợt sụt giảm là cơ hội gom thê$BTC is consolidating around 82,834, down 0.99% in 24h with a 4.1% amplitude, not panicking along with gold and silver. I lean towards a bullish oscillation, expecting it to continue moving between 80,985 and 84,340.2. Funding rates for the last three periods are 0.0019%, 0.0019%, and 0.0067%, still positive and rising, bulls are not scared off. DVOL is 37.1, options have not priced in cross-asset risk. Liquidations: long positions $61.91 million vs. short positions $24.18 million, bulls have been partially washed out, but contract open interest remains at $7.7 billion. Options trading put/call ratio is 1.48, but open interest put/call ratio is only 0.93. Some short-term protection buying is happening, but existing positions have not shifted to bearish; I interpret this as hedging. Total stablecoin supply is $313 billion, so there is no shortage of liquidity on exchanges. If selling pressure from the stock market really transmits here, we would first see funding rates turn negative and DVOL rise, but neither has happened yet. Conditions for a bearish reversal: break below 80,985 with funding rates turning negative, otherwise that judgment is invalid. Holding above 84,340.2 confirms bullish bias. Two years ago, colleagues were chatting about this over dinner.
It sounded like a foreign language to me.
Later, I tried with a few hundred yuan as a test.
The first purchase was $BTC.
After buying, it dropped.
It dropped so much that I couldn't sleep well for days.
Then I tried $ETH.
The fees were shockingly high.
Each transaction made me feel heartbroken for a long time.
Later, I tried $SOL.
Transfers were fast and fees were low.
But some shady projects just disappear.
Now I've learned my lesson.
I don't chase hot trends.
I don't follow trading signals.
I don't touch what I don't understand.
I write down my private keys myself.
I don't give them to anyone who asks.
I don't click on unknown links.
No matter how tempting the airdrop is, I don't connect my wallet recklessly.
I only use money I can afford to lose.
I just hold on.
I don't get arrogant when it rises.
I don't panic when it falls.
There are many opportunities in this field,
but even more traps.
Living long is more important than making a quick profit.
Don't borrow money.
Don't get carried away.
Don't believe in guaranteed profits.
Leave the rest to time.#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
#Microsoft releases next-generation AI chip, stock price hits annual high
#SanDisk and Micron fall, Changxin's technical progress draws attention $SNDK South Korea has triggered circuit breakers again and again, SanDisk has dropped to 1427, it's outrageous. The storage sector correction and OpenAI's ghost stories are really not to be underestimated!
Let's see if there will be an oversold rebound around the 1400 level.
Short-term resistance is first seen near 1500; if it can break through and hold, then watch 1620-50.Brothers, don’t rush to take yesterday’s rebound as a reversal! The bearish outlook on $BTC and $ETH that I’ve repeatedly discussed before is still valid; even the short positions of the big ten bosses haven’t been closed yet.
From a macro perspective, the US dollar is strengthening, inflation and interest rate pressures remain, and ETF funds continue to flow out. Technically, the bull flag pattern on $ETH has already broken down, challenging the bullish logic. However, whether the rebound is a bull trap or a true reversal still depends on subsequent price action.
📉 Key levels:
$BTC: Around $81,000 is an important support.
$ETH: Around $2,430 is a critical defense level.
Next, pay close attention to the CPI data and market reaction. If support holds, a rebound may come; if it breaks down effectively, the trend needs to be reassessed. Current judgments do not guarantee the market will develop as expected.
Many people lose money not because they don’t understand the market, but because they lose to their emotions. They get greedy when prices rise and hesitate to take profits; they panic when prices fall and rush to cut losses. The real gap is not information asymmetry but emotional management.
Manage your emotions well to manage your assets well. Even when bearish, be prepared for rebounds; when bullish, don’t blindly chase highs. Control your position size and set stop losses—don’t let greed and fear disrupt your trading plan.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Don't rush to bottom-fish! This round of pullback is most likely just a cleanup of high-level chips
Many friends have recently fallen into a vicious cycle: panic selling when the market drops, and rushing to buy the dip when it barely falls, completely going against the market rhythm.
At this stage, it is not a one-sided sell-off market, but more of a high-level consolidation. The market is completing a round of chip redistribution, and impulsive trading is easily punished repeatedly.
$DOGE Dogecoin｜Current price 0.08248
Resistance 0.092, Support 0.078
After a surge, it enters a volatile pullback, with market sentiment for Meme coins fluctuating back and forth.
Currently in a high-level correction and recovery phase; the price must hold the support level for a rebound to initiate; if the support fails, it will further explore downward space.
$ZEC Zcash｜Current price 1176.21
Resistance 1330, Support 1120
A previous big rally accumulated a large amount of profit-taking positions, now continuously releasing selling pressure.
Heavy resistance above, the 1120 level directly determines the strength and direction of this round of the market.
$SKHYNIX Hynix｜Current price 1158.7
Resistance 1220, Support 1128
Formed a standard double top bearish technical pattern, with the high-level trend gradually weakening.
Currently approaching a key support zone; if it can hold and stabilize, a recovery rebound will come; if it breaks down effectively, a new round of correction will officially start.
In a volatile pattern, the key to operation is simplicity: trade less and patiently wait for clear signals. Comeback Diary Day 4｜All green yesterday, fell below principal today
Yesterday morning, 7 positions were all green with an unrealized profit of +7.3U. This morning when I checked the account: equity was 72.91, less than the 76U principal. A one-day drawdown of 10U turned the comeback into just breaking even.
No market review today, but I reviewed three traps I dug for myself:
Trap 1: Turning profitable trades into losing ones. BTC went from +25% to -7.7%, DOGE from +10% to -35%. Any move in between would have been right, but I chose to "hold on for more."
Trap 2: Setting stop losses but not executing them. The stop loss I set for DOGE last night was broken overnight, but I didn’t exit, now it’s -35%. Not placing stop losses on the exchange is equivalent to having no stop loss.
Trap 3: Putting all position size on one trade. I heavily bottom-fished ZEC during its pullback, increasing from 0.03 to 0.5 with 50x leverage. Now +36% is the only bright spot in the account, but this isn’t bottom-fishing, it’s gambling—luck if right, not a strategy.
The only right move: cleared ETH and SNDK, slimming the account from 8 positions to 5.
Day 4 conclusion: You can’t make money just by picking the right direction; controlling your actions is key. The biggest short in the account is myself. Starting tomorrow, once unrealized profit exceeds 10%, stop loss must be moved to cost price, a pledge to prove it.
What’s the biggest trap you’ve stepped on in your comeback journey? Let’s talk in the comments.
Risk warning: Personal live trading record, not investment advice, leverage risk is extremely high, do not copy trades. BTC next 24 hours
- The first resistance is at 82,950–83,300.
- After holding above 83,300, it may continue to test 83,800–84,000.
- The stronger resistance remains the intraday high of 84,350.
- The first support is concentrated at 82,400–82,800.
- After breaking below 82,400, watch 82,000–82,150; if that fails, it may retest 81,000–81,100.
Judgment: There are conditions for a short-term continued rebound, but it is still a weak recovery before holding above 83,300. The main expected fluctuation range is 82,000–83,500.
ETH next 24 hours
- The first resistance is concentrated at 2,510–2,530.
- Only after breaking through will there be a chance to test 2,560–2,580.
- The first support is at 2,475–2,485.
- After breaking below, watch 2,450–2,460.
- If 2,450 fails, it may retest 2,405–2,420.
Judgment: ETH's rebound strength is weaker than BTC's. Below 2,530, the overall trend remains bearish, and the risk of a secondary dip cannot be ruled out.
The next 24 hours are expected to see wide fluctuations with rebound pressure. A signal of strengthening is BTC holding above 83,300 and ETH holding above 2,530; a signal of weakening is BTC breaking below 82,000 and ETH breaking below 2,450. At the daily level for GTC, there is no suspense: the EMA8 and EMA21 have formed a death cross, the MACD volume bars continue to decline, and the rebound cannot even effectively hold above 0.25. The capital side looks even worse, with a massive amount of short liquidation chips stacked in the 0.28 to 0.30 range. Currently, the sell volume of 545K is stronger than the buy volume of 293K, and the bulls have no support at all.
This structure is a typical bull trap for distribution; the main force will not easily allow the price to break above the strong resistance at 0.28. I just parked the car outside the rider station, and the order reminder calls kept ringing nonstop. A quick glance at the market tells me that not shorting at this position would be a disservice to myself.
Do not chase lows near the current price of around 0.237. Wait for a rebound between 0.244 and 0.250 to enter short positions in batches, with a stop loss set above 0.267. The first take profit is at 0.228, and if it breaks below, look for 0.216. If the rebound cannot even reach 0.244, do not participate at all. Wait for a volume breakout below 0.230 to short with a stop loss at 0.242 and a target of 0.212.
$GTC
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
@OKX星球 #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening?
This is not "institutions abandoning crypto," but rather "in a high interest rate environment, a batch of macro funds sensitive to interest rates are reducing their positions."
The outflowed money is mainly concentrated in a few large funds, while whales are accumulating at low levels, with net inflows still positive for the year, and on-chain catalysts are also progressing.
What really needs attention is the US CPI data on October 15 — if inflation exceeds expectations and interest rate pressure continues, short-term outflows may persist; if inflation cools down, there is a high probability that these withdrawn funds will flow back.SOL took a hit today, but the Hong Kong Stock Exchange held a "coming-of-age ceremony" for it
SOL had a rough day today. Around 105, it dropped over 5% in a single day, contract open interest fell by 4.31%, and there were 30.48 million in liquidations within 24 hours, with longs being crushed hard.
But today, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange held a "coming-of-age ceremony" for it: Pando's SOL spot ETF was listed, ticker 2831, the second in Hong Kong.
Management fee is 0.6%, nearly 40% cheaper than the 0.99% charged by Huaxia. The issue price is between 7.8 and 8 HKD, one lot is 100 shares, so you can get in for 800 HKD, and it was available for purchase right at today's open. No pledging, no leverage, purely spot exposure. The coins are custodied by HashKey, so the fund company handles all the hassle of private keys and mnemonic phrases for you.
Across the ocean, the picture is quite the opposite: the US SOL spot ETF saw a net outflow of 24.8 million last week, breaking a 14-week streak of inflows. Americans are selling, Hong Kong investors are buying.
I've been thinking about three things:
① The listing day coincided with a sharp drop, so the short-term "good news being priced in" sell-off was unavoidable; chasing in today likely means standing on the sidelines.
② But the long-term logic has changed: Asian compliant capital is starting to take over, and once the fee war begins, retail investors get access to cheaper channels.
③ At the 105 level, contract longs are still cutting positions. Bottom fishing is possible, but don't use contracts; spot tools like ETFs are meant for long-term holding.
The most miserable day and the most dignified day happened to be the same day. Next, watch the first-day trading volume; whether it's hot or not will be clear by today's close. SOL's market is increasingly looking like a "regular army."$SNDK Indeed, this trend is too typical. "A large-volume sharp drop followed by no pullback, then a volume-shrinking steady decline"—this is a textbook-level weak pattern.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 The large-volume sharp drop indicates that the main funds are decisively withdrawing, and the subsequent "no rebound" and "volume-shrinking steady decline" are the most fatal—this shows that the bulls have completely given up resisting, with extremely scarce buying, not even a decent bull trap. The main force is slowly grinding down the price like boiling a frog in warm water.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, SNDK has dropped from the high of 1620 to around 1437 now. The moving average system MA5 (1441), MA10 (1461), and MA20 (1491) are all diverging downward in a very standard way, continuously pressing down the price, with the deviation rate constantly expanding.
Previously, following this wave of macro bearishness and breakdown pattern, I took some positions at the high level. The current unrealized profit is already very substantial, and the initiative is completely in my hands.
Facing this volume-shrinking steady decline, the next response strategy must be clear:
First, move the defense line directly down to 1450 (just above MA5). If the volume-shrinking steady decline continues or suddenly accelerates with large volume selling, keep the base position and follow along;
Second, once the market shows volume-shrinking stabilization or suddenly explodes in volume with a rebound back above the moving averages, decisively take profits and exit, never cling to the battle. $BTC $ETH 📊 $BTC fell below 82,000, with $771 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, including $685.6 million long positions liquidated. The shorts really took a heavy cut this round. On the chart, 82,859 is the first resistance level I'm watching; above that, the 83,172 level has been tested 13 times with 6 rejections. The most concentrated trading volume in the past 14 days is around 83,648, indicating significant selling pressure above. If bulls can't hold this level, it's hard for them to turn the tide; below 81,953, liquidity will likely be swept. Open interest dropped 1.0% in 24 hours while price fell 1.42%, indicating longs are closing positions rather than new shorts adding; however, the long-short account ratio remains at 1.57, with retail investors still adding positions against the trend to buy the dip, showing clear sentiment divergence. If it holds above 83,515, the short logic needs to be reconsidered. In the short term, I lean towards waiting and watching, looking for short opportunities on pullbacks or volume spikes. Do you think this is just a shakeout or will it continue to crash down? #OKXTraderVoices When the US dollar is strong, the crypto market weakens. Bitcoin dropped from 84,231 to 81,018, now at 82,828, failing to hold above 83,000; Ethereum at 2,500 broke easily, falling from 2,575 to 2,411, barely recovering to 2,488; HYPE suffered the worst, dropping from 88 to 79.52, down nearly 14% in seven days, wiping out the gains made in a few days over the past month.
This doesn't look like a simple technical correction. The US dollar index has been strong, US Treasury yields are pushing higher, risk asset valuations are being suppressed, and high-beta assets like crypto are definitely taking the first hit. But it’s not a total collapse: Strategy bought another 250 BTC, bringing holdings to 848,250 BTC, with $4.88 billion in cash on hand, continuing to buy despite the dip. There’s also a medium-term factor: if accounting rules count stablecoins that can be redeemed directly as cash, companies will be more willing to allocate stablecoins in their treasuries. In the short term, the US dollar and US Treasury yields still call the shots.
Don’t rush to reach out now. Wait for two signals: the US dollar and Treasury yields peak and start to fall, and Bitcoin firmly reclaims 84,000. Jumping in to catch the bottom before these happen isn’t a lack of insight, just impatience.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 On October 9th, WikiBit's Weekly Beat X Space focused the discussion on Q4 market outlook, AI and crypto, stablecoin adoption, regulation, and leverage. Guests included Cube CEO Madison, Core Chain founder Liviu, Orion Finance community manager, Elytron Chain's Desky, and others. If we were to summarize this AMA in one sentence: The buzz at Token2049 does not equal a bull market; the real Q4 depends on three things: how much money there is, who is genuinely using it, and whether the rules can encourage big money to come in. 1. Q4 Market: First watch the tide, then the waves The host's first question was: After Token2049, market sentiment seems to have returned, but macro pressures remain. Bond yields are rising, and concerns about rate hikes are back. Which indicators are most worth watching? The guests almost unanimously agreed: macro liquidity is the most important. Core Chain's Liviu gave a vivid analogy: Macro liquidity = tide ETF inflows = waves On-chain activity = how many people are really in the water The current problem is: the tide is receding. The 10-year US Treasury yield once exceeded 5%, the Fed raised rates in September, and the market is still pricing in a possible hike at the end of October. High-yield risk-free bonds force all risk assets to work harder to prove themselves. Today BTC dropped around 81,000, dragging down a bunch of tokens. Here's a quick summary:
$PONS has very strong support at this position in the short term, around 280M (I was thinking of buying at 230M).
$stonk hasn't made a new low, but the rise was completely swallowed. It’s probably going to dip below 90M. Adding some in batches.
$SI
I made the first buy at 16.1M, aiming for about 60% profit at this position.
Now about BSC:
Niulai and $marscoin both broke below their ranges.
Niulai dropped to 68M+, probably not the bottom yet.
$marscoin dropped to 79M, with new lows.
When it comes to making new lows, BSC has never disappointed.
One more thing, the previously predicted hype for Niulai after the foreign release didn’t happen. The recent discussion heat has dropped sharply, similar to (or even stronger than) the initial Lobster.
A bold prediction: Niulai could drop to 20M or even below. If it falls below 20M, many people’s hearts might break (don’t hit me, I mean 20M would start to be very cost-effective) 😠First, let's share some BTC.
After seeing the drop overnight, since I was out of position, I knew my opportunity had come. But I was still a bit worried because some brothers who read and listened to my posts might still be holding their positions.
BTC hasn't broken below the previous low; the opportunity has truly arrived. It's here for tomorrow's CPI release. If not bottom-fishing and speculating now, then when?
The hourly chart is stabilizing at this moment, so I'll bottom-fish first. If BTC's hourly chart further forms a bullish structure, I will add to my position.
Can I win this time? Does the opportunity belong to someone like me who is willing to wait?
If you see this post, brothers, let's bottom-fish together. This time my post is clear: bottom-fishing. If I'm wrong, feel free to criticize, because this time I'm being straightforward. I can't argue against that…On the eve of the CPI, don't guess the direction; prepare for both outcomes first.
If inflation exceeds expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rise, putting pressure on BTC, with greater correction risks for ETH and ZEC.
If the data cools down, the market may see a rebound, but this does not mean a trend reversal; resistance above still exists.
My strategy is not to chase gains or blindly bottom-fish, but to wait for the data to settle before deciding the direction. Are you more optimistic about inflation cooling down, or worried about the data being too hot?
#SepCPIHikeWatch #BTCETHETFOutflows #MicrosoftMaia300 Back then, my friends were posting screenshots in the group every day.
After watching for a few days, I couldn't sit still.
I took a few hundred yuan to test the waters.
My first purchase was $BTC.
Right after buying, it started to drop.
It dropped so much that I even gave up milk tea.
Later, I heard there were more things on $ETH,
so I transferred some money there to mess around.
The fees were so high I wanted to smash my phone.
One operation wasted half a day.
Then I saw people hyping $SOL fast,
so I went on-chain and clicked around randomly.
It was really fast,
but the traps were real too.
Some projects were still there in the morning but gone by the afternoon.
I slowly learned to be wiser.
I don't chase hot topics.
I don't follow tips.
I don't touch what I don't understand.
I write down my private keys myself.
I don't give them to anyone who asks.
I don't click on unknown links.
No matter how tempting the airdrops are, I don't connect my wallet recklessly.
Now I only hold money I can afford to lose.
I just leave it there.
When it goes up, I don't get cocky.
When it goes down, I don't panic.
There are many opportunities in this field,
but even more traps.
Living long is more important than making a quick profit.
Don't borrow money.
Don't get carried away.
Don't believe in guaranteed profits.
Leave the rest to time#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 $MAGIC two cycles are conflicting, the key is not to guess the direction
$MAGIC 24h -9.81%, current price 0.1214. On the surface, it's just a rise and fall, but the real conflict lies in the cycles: 1-hour is weak, 4-hour is strong. When two charts give opposite answers, the least useful approach is to pick the one you like and believe it completely.
Put emotions aside first, the information given by the structure is very specific. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 0.12286033, currently weak; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 0.11578341, currently strong. The short cycle exposes changes, the long cycle limits imagination. When both agree, beware of crowding; when they conflict, beware of repetition. You can't just pick the side that benefits you.
The strong side has a clear task: first hold above the 1-hour resistance at 0.1424, then observe whether the 4-hour resistance near 0.1639 can still maintain support. If it only briefly breaks through intraday and quickly returns to the range, the so-called breakout lacks the crucial second half.$PONS This trash token needs to end, stop flaunting the title of "the biggest meme factory token on Robinhood Chain" everywhere. From that few-cent trash price in July to nearly one dollar, rising tens of thousands of times, sounds like a legend, right? But beneath that "fee buyback and burn" pretty facade, you're just a casino chip propped up by trash coin hype and speculative frenzy—full of talk about "decentralization, non-custodial, value capture," but in reality just quickly moving gamblers' money from one hand to the other.
Let's talk about your "meme coin launchpad" trick. Anyone can issue coins with one click, fix a billion supply, bonding curve trading, graduate straight to Uniswap, sounds very free and innovative. But the reality? You're just a cheap copy of Pump.fun, providing a breeding ground for worthless, trend-riding air coins. Thousands of new coins are born every day, most go to zero within days, leaving a field of dead retail investors. You rake in fees from these trash trades, brag about millions in daily fees, and use that to buy back and burn yourself, pretending to be a "deflationary model student." But once the meme craze fades and on-chain activity drops, your buybacks can't stop the dump, prices get halved and halved from the highs, now just hovering around a few dimes.
$PONS First, record the position of $ONDO, then discuss the viewpoint: current price 0.4761, about 4.66% away from the 1-hour support at 0.4539, and about 11.59% away from the resistance at 0.5313.
$ONDO has fallen to this point, and the most common illusion is: the more it falls, the cheaper it must be. The 1-hour is slightly weak, the 4-hour is slightly weak, with RSI at 29 and 40 respectively.
I only keep one confirmation for the upward trend — breaking through 0.5313; and only one condition to negate the upward trend — falling below 0.4539. Other fluctuations are considered noise for now.
If you must choose one validation point first, would you focus on confirming the resistance or the breach of support?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.$SNDK: Follow the trend to short!
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 1445-1455 range (EMA5/EMA10 resistance zone) and then enter short after resistance.
· The initial target is 1427 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then look at 1400. Set stop loss above 1465.
Core basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 1-hour level, EMA5/10/20 are diverging downward, price is suppressed below all moving averages, showing a very clear weak pattern since the 1733 high.
2. Long positions deeply trapped: Nominal long-short ratio is 138%, long average cost is 1539, current floating loss exceeds 3.69 million U, profit ratio only 4.91%. Heavy trapped positions above, easily triggering long liquidation cascades.
3. Poor volume-price coordination: volume expands on decline, shrinks on rebound, weak long support. Liquidity dries up during market closure, making it easy to spike downwards at open.
$BTC $ETH
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 At the crossroads before the data: Where are BTC, ETH, SOL, and XAUT headed?
$BTC 83406, $ETH 2550, $SOL 111, $XAUT 4171. Next, three variables are most critical.
First is geopolitics and oil prices. If Middle East disturbances push energy prices up, inflation expectations will rise again. Gold has safe-haven buying, but a strong dollar and high interest rates will cap gains, so safe-haven funds may not fully hedge.
Second is US inflation and interest rates. The CPI on October 14 and PPI on the 15th are short-term starting signals. If inflation exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations cool down, and risk assets like BTC come under pressure; if inflation falls, sentiment recovers, but it also depends on whether US Treasury yields decline simultaneously.
Third is institutional funds and validation. ETF flows and spot volume determine the quality of the rebound. BTC looks at 83000 support and 85000 resistance; ETH at 2500/2600; SOL at 110/115; XAUT watches gold, the dollar, and real interest rates.
My view: It now feels more like a directional game before macro data releases. Strong gold and weak crypto may indicate rising risk aversion, but you can't conclude that crypto funds are moving to gold based on price alone.
The market is waiting for the CPI/PPI announcements, so don't rush to take sides. If gold continues to strengthen and BTC still can't break 85000, will you treat it as a safe-haven market or is crypto holding back a big move? Let's first see if the funds cooperate.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ This time, ONDO deserves to be ranked higher
$ONDO I will first increase my attention.
The latest is about 0.499, down only about 1% in the past week, and still up about 45% in the past month, retaining quite a bit of the phase achievements.
However, around 0.5, it's not just about whether it crosses over.
The price is very close to the integer, slight fluctuations can cross it, what really matters to observe is whether it can continue to push forward after standing above it.
What I acknowledge is the recent limited pullback, not that it will surge immediately.
If the market warms up later, it can also actively move upward, this advantage is more useful; if it stays in place, the observation ranking needs to be reconsidered.
$PENDLE currently looks more like it has risen and then retreated.
Down about 12.2% in the past week, basically flat in the past month, the previous price advantage within the month is no longer obvious.
Here I will not use "familiarity with the project" as a reason to participate.
First see if the pullback can stop, then see if the rebound is continuous. It's not hard to rise for a day occasionally, the hard part is not falling back afterward, for now watch more and act less.
$ENA needs to distinguish between having surged and currently strengthening.
Up about 60% in the past month, but down about 6.8% in the past week, latest around 0.222.
The monthly performance is still impressive, and short-term pressure indeed exists.
I will first observe it as a recovery, not using the previous gains to estimate the next space. New upward progress is needed later to raise the evaluation again.$BTC
Current price is around 82900. The daily chart is still range-bound; today we first watch for a rebound after support, without rushing to confirm a trend reversal.
1. Support below: 80300-81100
After retesting this range again this morning, it pulled back up; the previous low at 80350 has not been broken. Open Interest (OI) has dropped about 5.8% from the early morning high, and there was no obvious increase during the rebound, which looks more like a deleveraging repair rather than a strong bullish accumulation.
2. Resistance above: 83000-84300
83000 is a dense moving average zone, and 84300 was the actual resistance level yesterday. Touching the moving averages does not mean it should be shorted, but until it breaks through, don’t treat the rebound as a main upward move.
Trading idea: No new positions now. If it retests 80500-81100 and after stopping the decline closes back above 81100 on the 1-hour chart, a small position can be tried for a rebound with a stop loss at 79800 and targets at 83000 and 84300; take profits in batches near resistance, not waiting for round numbers.
Today, wait for a retest; do not chase longs or rush shorts; if 84300 is not broken, continue range trading.
CPI will be announced tomorrow night at 20:30 Beijing time, so keep positions light. Shorting $HYPE for a year, with an unrealized loss of 23 million, still holding
Just saw an address, got chills down my spine
A whale on Hyperliquid 0x45d2…4029 holds a short position on HYPE.
About 433,100 tokens, 10x full margin leverage, average entry price $28.79.
HYPE is now around $82. His unrealized loss has exceeded $23 million, with a position return of -1850%.
He started shorting HYPE since September 2025. Over a year now.
He adjusted his position a few times in between, but the overall direction never changed. HYPE rose from 28 to 82, up 185%, and he just held on. The liquidation price was $69.49, which the price has long surpassed, but he hasn't been liquidated, most likely because he kept adding margin.
He's not waiting to break even; he's waiting for a "crash" that may never come.
A year ago when he shorted HYPE, he probably thought the valuation was too high and the rise too fast. Then the market spent a year telling him: if you think it's high, it can still go higher. Short sellers are always fuel for the trend.
Do you think he will cut losses in the end or hold until liquidation? Discuss in the comments.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH ETH 2494｜2500 lost again, the next test is the ability to hold support.
ETH has fallen back below $2500, indicating this level has not yet truly turned into support. More notably, ETH recently is not only following BTC's fluctuations but also facing capital pressure itself: the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of about $542 million last week, with net outflows continuing for 9 consecutive trading days. For the price to sustain a rebound, short-term buying alone may not be enough.
On the chart, 2500–2520 is the first area that needs to be reclaimed. If it can stabilize above this range and further break through 2550, the rebound may extend to 2580–2600; if it remains suppressed below 2500, watch for support around 2470 and 2440–2450. The US CPI released on Wednesday could also amplify volatility; if inflation exceeds expectations, market concerns about maintaining high interest rates may intensify again.
Regarding contracts, the most important thing now is not to guess the bottom but to see if 2500 can be regained. After reclaiming, observe the continuation of the rebound; if it fails to hold, be cautious of further support declines. Before CPI, the market tends to trade expectations early and may experience reverse sweeps, so avoid over-leveraging or over-positioning.
2500 is not only a round number barrier but also a watershed for ETH's short-term sentiment stability.
For market analysis only, not investment advice. $ETH $BAT's recent surge has brutally crushed the shorts.
This rally of BAT is like a piercing arrow through the clouds, violently pushing the price up, with a single-day increase reaching 13%. The price surged all the way to around 0.17, leaving many friends who bottom-fished short positions stunned on the spot.
Looking at the liquidation data, it's clear this round is mainly a short squeeze, with a large number of short positions being continuously liquidated. Over 120,000 short positions were liquidated in 24 hours, and nearly 59,000 short positions were liquidated within one hour, with shorts being harvested repeatedly.
Earlier, the market oscillated back and forth, wearing down many people's patience. When many turned bearish and opened shorts following the trend, the market suddenly took off. Oscillating markets are the easiest to set traps in; when trading contracts, never blindly guess the top to short. Once the trend starts, there is no chance for pullbacks. Always set your stop loss first! $STRK #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ 200 million liquidations with longs accounting for 70%! I'm still holding on, just one step away from liquidation, how about you?
Brothers, as of October 13th, 8:30 AM.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $195 million in liquidations, with longs liquidated at $143 million, accounting for 73.31%. $ETH leads with $58.14 million liquidated, longs making up 64%; $BTC liquidations at $54.89 million, longs 78%; $ZEC liquidations at $15.07 million, shorts 59% — ZEC is the only coin where shorts liquidated more than longs, due to intense short squeezes earlier causing a short squeeze backlash.
Looking at my positions: BTC long -240%, ETH long -92%, ZEC long -115%, only CL short +16% is holding up. I was almost one of that 73.31%.
But I’m not cutting losses. The reason is simple: CPI hasn’t been released yet. If CPI cools down on October 14th, short covering will give all deeply trapped longs a chance to escape. If CPI exceeds expectations, then I’ll accept the loss.
Holding positions isn’t heroism; it’s preserving chips before data release and decisively admitting mistakes after data disproves your thesis.
Are you among that 73.31% of liquidated longs? Do you plan to hold until CPI or cut now?
Fortunes rotate; after longs get liquidated, will shorts be next?
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ $ETH $BTC Recently, BTC has been fluctuating between 81,000 and 84,000, with liquidations and ETF outflows causing some market panic.
But the real hotspots are:
Tokenization (RWA) is accelerating its implementation
Regulation is shifting from waiting for the Clarity Act to focusing on administrative rules
ETH upgrade + AI infrastructure narrative is still fermenting
This Wednesday's CPI is a critical point, which direction do you favor? Let's discuss in the comments.
#CryptoHotspots #Tokenization #BTCThe situation is worse than expected; SanDisk's unexpected sell-off caused it to drop from 1610 to 1456 in one day, and a further drop to 1300 is highly likely.
I want to clarify that I placed a short position at around 1490 and exited at 1471 as planned because I was afraid.
I'm worried that once the downward gap opens, SanDisk will follow a floodgate-like pattern with two consecutive solid bearish candles, rushing down to 1300. This isn't just SanDisk crashing; it's the entire storage sector collectively falling.
The 1550 neckline support I previously anchored on no longer exists.
The technical breakdown has occurred, panic is still being released emotionally, and the whole sector is shutting down.
If there is no large capital entering to support the market at the US stock open tonight, and no industry positive news to hedge,
then a drop to around 1300 this week is just a matter of time.
No stop-fall signal has appeared; the sell-off in the Korean stock market hasn't ended, and pessimism in the US storage sector is still fermenting.
All directions have SanDisk positioned in short orders; following the trend means continuing to short.
Considering shorting on a rebound in the 1465-1485 range, either exiting at 1500 or 1350. I won't go long on SNDK unless it falls deeply with the sector.Fearless of the drop!? The whale who newly opened a position in $UNI yesterday has added to their position again⚡️
Address 0x138…73b4D withdrew 600,005 UNI 40 minutes ago after the price rebounded, worth 4.28 million USD; since 10.11, they have accumulated a total of 1,292,895 UNI, with a total value of 9.596 million USD, an average withdrawal price of $7.42, currently at an unrealized loss of 300,000 USD
Wallet address 0x138941e97233Eac820946EC8c1F0399156073b4DWhales are dumping, BTC battles the 80,000 mark, but ETH hides opportunities?
A long-dormant giant whale sold 4,582 BTC, worth 370 million; meanwhile, institutions sold BTC and rotated to buy 27,500 ETH. Short-term funds slightly flowed in, but overall there was a large outflow over 12 hours, with heavy selling pressure.
BTC dipped to 80,300 before a sharp V-shaped rebound, showing short-term recovery momentum, but the moving averages above exert clear resistance. Bulls below 80,000 have basically been wiped out, with a large accumulation of short positions at high levels, making an upward spike to sweep shorts possible.
Within the day, continue holding BTC and ETH at current prices, enter lightly without rushing. The morning was a wide-range shakeout caused by whale rotation; avoid heavy positions and focus on ETH's catch-up rally opportunities.
$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Bought Zhongji Xuchuang these two days and with leverage, the drop is giving me stomach pain$XAU Currently, gold is in a tug-of-war stage between "US dollar and US Treasury suppression" and "central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risk support."
For intraday short-term support, focus near 4150, and for resistance above, watch the 4220-4230 area to see if it can break through and hold. If it fails to break through, bulls should still be cautious of a pullback risk.
In the short term, Wednesday's US CPI data is a key watershed. If CPI exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will further strengthen, and gold prices may dip to 4100 USD or even 4055 USD; if CPI is below expectations, gold prices are expected to retest the 4225 USD resistance.
Medium term: Institutions generally believe there is strong structural buying support near 4000 USD, and gold prices are likely to maintain a range-bound pattern for the year, with core resistance above seen at 4700 USD.
The above are personal views for reference only The year before last, a friend pulled me into a group chat
Every day someone posted profit screenshots
I saw so many that I got itchy hands
I took a few hundred yuan to try
The first buy was $BTC
Right after buying, it dropped
It dropped so much I couldn't even afford to order takeout
Later, I heard people say $ETH has more things to play with
So I transferred some money to mess around
The fees were ridiculously high
One operation wasted half a day
Then I saw people hyping $SOL fast
So I went to randomly click around on the chain
It was really fast
But the traps were real too
Some projects disappeared just like that
I slowly learned to be wiser
Don't chase hot topics
Don't follow trading signals
Don't touch what you don't understand
Write down your private keys yourself
Don't give them to anyone who asks
Don't click on unknown links
No matter how tempting airdrops are, don't connect your wallet recklessly
Now I only hold money I won't mind losing
Just leave it be
Don't get cocky when it rises
Don't panic when it falls
This industry has many opportunities
But even more traps
Living long is more important than making a quick profit
Don't borrow money
Don't get carried away
Don't believe in guaranteed profits
Leave the rest to time#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $STRK: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 0.0890-0.0900 range (EMA10 and previous small platform resistance zone) and then enter short.
· The target is first 0.0820 (24-hour low); if it breaks down effectively, then look at the 0.0800 whole number level. Set stop loss defense at 0.0945 (above EMA20).
Core basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 1-hour level, EMA5 (0.08785), EMA10 (0.08990), EMA20 (0.09438) diverge downward; price runs below all moving averages, with highs continuously moving lower since the 0.12680 peak, showing a very clear weak trend.
2. Pattern of rising then falling: After a previous sharp rise (from 0.055 to 0.1268), currently in a significant retracement phase, having completely broken below the previous consolidation platform, a typical downtrend continuation pattern with bulls unable to reverse.
3. Poor volume-price coordination: The downtrend phase was accompanied by significant volume expansion; current low-level rebound volume is extremely shrunk, indicating weak bull support. The 0.10-0.12 area above is heavily trapped, making trend-following shorting a better risk-reward choice.
$MAGIC $RSR
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $CHIP Did nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the K-line had already done the work for me.
First, report the results: long positions entered at 0.05980 and 0.05278, floating profit +266%. It's that simple, so simple that I almost feel embarrassed. The earlier part was really dragging, but the outcome is really sweet.
During the intraday bottoming, CHIP looked half-dead, so green it made me want to close the software, but CHIP's funds were quietly entering, and there were always buyers below. I judged that this position wouldn't be smashed down, so I suggested going long, buying near 0.05278, timing the rhythm just right.
Risk control is done upfront, called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive. Being out of position is not a sin, opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
I handled the position decisively: first take profit on 70%, raise the stop loss on the remaining 30% to the cost price, let profits run if it continues to rise, and don't give back gains on pullbacks.
Don't rush to add positions, there will be more opportunities later, wait for the next shot. Now is not the time to rush, chasing highs easily gets stuck at the peak.
$ETH $BNB Topped out and took a 30% drop $STRK Last night, the US Dollar Index DXY hit a new high for the year, today the South Korean stock market experienced a circuit breaker, there are riots in France, and on Saturday the Saudi airport was bombed. The indicators have already shown this. US Treasury yields fell to 5.1%, indicating increased demand for US debt, and capital is flowing back to the US accordingly. It's still the same old strategy from decades ago, just a well-played hand.Core judgment: BTC is weakly consolidating near $82,000, dominated by macro pressure, waiting for CPI data to break the deadlock
BTC is currently around $82,423, down about 2% in 24 hours. ETH is at $2,412, down over 5%. BTC market dominance rises to 59.35%, with funds concentrating on Bitcoin
Technical aspect: BTC resistance above is $83,000-$84,500, support below is $80,300-$82,000. Jiang Zhuoer believes $80,000 will likely be lost, but $77,000 will not break. ETH key support is $2,401; breaking it would trigger long liquidation intensity of $553 million
Capital flow: Last week BTC ETF net outflow was $681 million, ETH ETF net outflow $542 million, SOL outflow $24.81 million, totaling about $1.25 billion, 98% concentrated in BTC and ETH
Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index dropped to 56. Predictive market shows BTC has a 56% probability of falling to $80,000
Macro suppression: 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.70%, highest since 2002; Brent crude oil breaks $101; US Dollar Index rises to an 18-month high. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $774 million, with longs accounting for 89%
Outlook: CPI and PPI are the next triggers. If exceeding expectations, BTC may test $80,000 or even $77,000; BTC has broken above the 365-day moving average, historically a signal that a weak cycle is nearing its end
Macro data sets the direction; $80,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears After Bitcoin broke below the ascending trendline, it rebounded yesterday but failed to continue upward, and today it dropped again to around 81,000. Currently, the daily chart's bearish divergence is nearing its end, and the indicator deviation for Bitcoin is also close to the zero line, about to be resolved. Structurally, if the 4-hour and 6-hour charts continue to decline slowly, there will be bottom consolidation; if a bullish divergence appears, it signals an entry opportunity. Bitcoin's recent pullback has formed two lows at 82,556 and 80,400 respectively; taking the lower point 80,400 as reference, if the closing price stays below 80,400 for three consecutive days or falls more than 3% below 80,400 (i.e., below 78,000), the 3.0 trading system requires moving to a short position to wait, as it is very likely to form an M-top. If it does not break this level, hold the base position, as it could be a W-shaped upward continuation. Strong resistance is near 87,400. Subsequent operations should continue to follow the structure. Bitcoin will later be watched for either a double top bearish divergence or an isolated peak bearish divergence.
The Bitcoin 2.0 trading system currently maintains a 70% position. The trend channel has entered a box range, indicating an imminent turning point. Today's upper boundary is at 83,113, and the lower boundary is at 80,993. Frequent touches of the lower boundary by Bitcoin are not a good sign, as support levels will weaken. However, the 4-hour and 6-hour charts currently show signs of bottom consolidation. If Bitcoin breaks below the lower boundary but shows bottom consolidation, the position can be increased to see if Bitcoin can climb back above the upper boundary within the bullish divergence period. As long as Bitcoin can hold above the weekly lower boundary, the overall trend remains intact.The more gold falls, the more it is snapped up! Behind the divergence of funds, understand the big logic of Bitcoin
Recently, the gold market has been particularly abnormal: prices continue to weaken, but gold ETF funds are pouring in wildly.
In Q3, global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of 31 billion, with a single-month inflow of 10 billion in September, holdings hitting a new historical high, and institutions continuously increasing positions against the trend.
The reason for the "price drop but buying frenzy" divergence is fundamentally that two types of funds are operating in opposite directions.
Long-term large funds (central banks, pension funds, family capital) are accumulating gold on dips, not speculating on short-term price fluctuations, but hedging against long-term currency depreciation, treating it as a base safe-haven asset.
Meanwhile, short-term hedge funds are dumping on the futures side, suppressed by high US Treasury yields, profiting from swing spreads, dominating short-term gold price movements.
The high interest rate environment raises the holding cost of non-interest-bearing assets, so gold cannot rise in the short term, but this does not stop long-term funds from positioning.
Here’s the key:
Currently, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to the highest since 2020; the market already treats BTC as highly elastic digital gold.
Gold’s counter-trend accumulation proves the global hard asset hedging logic is fully intact.
Bitcoin is also suppressed and volatile in the short term due to interest rates, but its long-term inflation resistance and credit currency hedging logic are completely in sync with gold.
In summary:
Short-term interest rates determine price fluctuations, long-term monetary easing expectations determine gains. Gold is buying the future, and Bitcoin is also gearing up. $BTC $ETH #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
⚠️Personal market observation, not investment advice $ETH The sharp drop this morning pushed the 1-hour RSI down to 20. Then it recovered with two consecutive bullish candles, and the indicator returned to a neutral zone at 46, which is a relief to see.
Just now, the 5-minute RSI surged to 73, entering the overbought zone. When the price moved up, the smaller timeframe indicator showed no divergence and aligned with the trend. This indicates that the buying power at the low level was sufficient to absorb the morning's downward momentum. However, looking at the 4-hour chart, the RSI is still in the weak zone at 31, and the larger timeframe indicator's recovery has just begun.
Now the price is back near 2490, right at the 4-hour support level. Although the morning dip pierced this level, it quickly rebounded with volume. This shows that the buying near the 4-hour support held, and the buy orders below absorbed the selling pressure.
At this moment, I am slightly bullish. The 4-hour support held the selling pressure, and the 4-hour RSI is still low. The indicator still has room to recover upward. After the market stabilizes here, it is highly likely to first run a rebound to test the resistance near 2510.
$BTC $SOL #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 U.S. Treasury yields soar (5.3%) and the hawkish specter of "another rate hike by year-end": The latest hot inflation data has completely shifted the Federal Reserve's stance to hawkish. The 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have surged to around 5.3%, directly causing the attractiveness of risk-free assets to overwhelmingly crush cryptocurrencies, greatly increasing the global cost of carry and leverage costs for long positions, triggering a violent sell-off in overall risk assets (Risk-off).With BTC down less than ETH and SOL over 24h, the tape is favoring liquidity and defensiveness over higher-beta exposure. That relative strength matters more than the broad decline, though a continued risk-off move could still pressure BTC. Not financial advice.I have bad luck on me; I can't hold onto my profits every time.