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$BTC: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 81,900-82,300 range (EMA5/EMA10 and dense long cost resistance zone) and then enter short.
· The target is first 81,247 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then look at the previous low of 80,351. Set stop loss above 82,700 (EMA20).
Core basis:
1. Moving average bearish pressure: On the 1-hour level, EMA5 (82,037), EMA10 (82,345), and EMA20 (82,700) diverge downward, price runs below all three lines, with highs continuously moving lower since the peak at 86,656, clearly indicating a weak trend.
2. Main force chip hunting: Smart money data shows longs are extremely crowded (1.96B), average cost 82,302. Current price has fallen below the long cost line, longs are at a loss. The main force is highly likely to dump downward, triggering nearly 1.96 billion in long stop losses, causing a cascade.
3. Poor volume-price coordination: The downtrend was accompanied by volume expansion; current low-level rebound volume is extremely weak, indicating weak long support and heavy trapped positions above. Following the trend to short offers an excellent risk-reward ratio.
$ETH $ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 The core catalyst this week is the US CPI data on October 14. If inflation is high, the US dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and BTC may retest $80,000–$81,000; if the data is moderate, there is a chance to retake $84,000–$85,000.
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw significant net outflows, with institutional funds being cautious in the short term; however, whale addresses are still accumulating at low levels, showing an on-chain divergence of "institutional outflows, large holders accumulating." The crypto world is truly the biggest mental asylum in human financial history.
Bitcoin rises 2%, bulls start researching buying property in Dubai.
Bitcoin falls 2%, bears start studying global financial crises.
Up 5%, some declare the dollar system is about to collapse.
Down 5%, some declare Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme.
The most abstract part is:
Bulls losing money say they are long-term thinkers.
Bears getting liquidated say they are hedging systemic risk.
Spot holders stuck say they are positioning for the future.
Contract holders wiped out say they paid their tuition in cognitive lessons.
A group of people study the Federal Reserve every day, yet in the end, they don’t even understand their own positions.
Bitcoin might not know where it’s headed.
But everyone in crypto knows they will be financially free tomorrow.
I now seriously suspect the biggest consensus in crypto isn’t Bitcoin, but that everyone thinks the others are fools.
If you disagree, come debate—first disclose your position, not your beliefs.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 The rebound is just a breather; verification is still underway
After the panic sell-off on October 9, market sentiment warmed up: total market cap returned to $2.89 trillion, and the greed index rose to 56. But recovery does not equal reversal—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $485 million and $244 million on consecutive days, institutions are retreating, and retail investors are on the sidelines.
$BTC hovers around 84,000, with 83,000 being both the average ETF cost and the dividing line between bulls and bears. There is dense trapped volume above; only a strong volume close above counts as a breakout. Support is at 77,000, with the market betting a 67% chance of falling below 80,000 in October. $ETH is around 2,566, with a decline far exceeding BTC; the ETF has lost value for six days, and the 2,550–2,600 range is a resistance zone—failure to break through may lead to a retest of 2,470 or even 2,400. $SOL is about 113, showing short-term strength; the key is whether buying pressure can continue. $ZEC is around 1,265; Grayscale ETFs and privacy narratives bring high volatility, but profit-taking pressure is significant.
Next, it depends on two things: whether inflation data will again exceed expectations, and whether the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire is real. In terms of operations, don’t rush to chase; watch if BTC can hold above 83,000 with volume, see if ETH can recover 2,600, check if funds will continue to support SOL, and note that ZEC is volatile but avoid catching the last leg. Treat the rebound as just a rebound and wait for a pullback confirmation before acting.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $W has entered the oversold zone; a rebound and a bottom are two different things.
$W is down 15.96% in 24 hours, currently priced at 0.01864. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 8 and 52 respectively. Oversold conditions can trigger rebound demand, but a rebound only indicates a sharp drop; a bottom requires the price to stop breaking the structure.
Volume does not support the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.15 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can also move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or one long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
Looking back at the 24-hour range: the low is 0.01864, the high is 0.03175. The current price at 0.01864’s position within this range directly affects the meaning of the same signal. When near the high, strength needs to prove it’s not a spike followed by a fall; when near the low, a rebound needs to prove it’s not a continuation of the downtrend. The range is not a forecast target, but a tool to check whether the current narrative is hiding risks.$BTC Wave B major top (87000) if confirmed as the peak of this rebound, counting from the top, the 12–18 month range is the time window for the major bottom to appear.
The high point is in the second half of 2026; pushing forward 12–18 months, the major bottom falls in the first half of 2027, which exactly matches the timeline we previously projected.
What you are saying now: the next 6 months (October 2026 — April 2027) is the window period for the major bottom to manifest, and this projection aligns with this cycle framework.
First half (November, December): Wave C main decline releases selling pressure, with multiple false rebounds (dead cat bounces) along the way, continuously clearing out funds chasing highs.
• Second half (early 2027): Main decline ends with the ultimate low, followed by sideways consolidation at low levels, repeatedly faking breakouts to wear down bottom-fishers' patience.
After 6 months (second half of 2027): Bottom formation completes, awaiting liquidity to warm up.
The bottom consolidation fully digests the trapped positions from Wave B at 87000. From a macro perspective, the Fed's rate cut cycle lands, long-term US Treasury yields decline, risk asset valuations recover, then a new major upward rally will start.
Two key premises for this timing cycle to hold:
1. 87000 must be confirmed as a valid Wave B top.
That is, BTC must subsequently break below 57000 on the weekly chart to confirm the Wave C structure.
If the market holds above 57000 and it's only a medium-term correction, then 87000 is not the major top, and this 12–18 month bottom-seeking cycle is invalid. The market will consolidate for a few months and then challenge new highs again.
2. No unexpected massive macro black swan events.
If extreme inflation or a global liquidity crisis occurs, the down cycle will lengthen and the bottom timing will be delayed; if inflation falls rapidly and liquidity loosens early, the bottom may appear earlier, not necessarily waiting until the first half of 2027. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
$BTC The core focus this week is the US September CPI and PPI inflation data. As the Federal Reserve meeting approaches at the end of the month, the data will rewrite expectations for rate hikes or cuts, driving sharp volatility in cryptocurrencies and gold.
CPI reflects end consumer prices, while PPI reflects upstream production costs. Only by combining both can we judge whether inflation is truly easing or just a short-term illusion.
Currently, the market is only undergoing an oversold correction, not a trend reversal. Early in the week, there is no major data, so the market mainly plays on expectations. The market will most likely fluctuate and shake out positions, with frequent long and short traps. Do not mistake test fluctuations for a directional move.
$ETH $ZEC I have closed my positions in Ethereum and small Bitcoin; the pattern is no longer favorable. I’m taking profits first and will go long again if the decline continues. Currently, Bitcoin is still looking at 86000 SK Hynix suddenly plummets: It's not a fundamental collapse, but the chips loosened first
Among the three major memory manufacturers, SK Hynix has fallen the most sharply this round.
Many people's first reaction: Is the AI storage logic gone? Actually, not entirely.
The real trigger is the change in capital structure: foreign capital continues to sell, the large buyback dividends that previously supported the stock price have basically faded, and a large amount of passive buying support is missing. Coupled with active retail trading in the Korean market itself, once expectations waver slightly, turnover rises rapidly, floating chips increase suddenly, and a "long liquidation" rapid drop can easily occur.
One key point to note: SK Hynix has the highest proportion of HBM, with many orders under long-term contracts. The spot price increase dividends are actually less direct than those of Micron and SanDisk, and the market is beginning to reassess its profit elasticity.
Now it's not simply about "good or bad," but the market has shifted from blindly bullish to testing chip stability through turnover rate.
High turnover = increased divergence: if turnover quickly falls after a drop, it indicates selling pressure is gradually exhausted; if it remains high, the time for a bottoming consolidation may be extended.
The long memory cycle remains, but the era of high volatility has arrived, and the risk of heavily betting on a one-sided move has clearly increased. Originally, I planned to liquidate all my Trump tokens before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd, whether at a profit or a loss. This morning, Bitcoin and Ethereum started to decline steadily, and the market gave me a strong sense of a severe downturn.
Today is already October 13th, just 20 days away from November 3rd, so stopping losses today is reasonable. The Trump project team is really disappointing—they only know how to dump and sell. Despite such a good midterm election bullish factor, they didn’t push the price up, which is frustrating.
But I also made mistakes. Trump token peaked at 3.6 this round. According to my trading rules, I should have cut my position in half, entering at 1.8. If I had strictly followed my trading discipline, the current price near 1.8 wouldn’t have caused me much loss.
At that time, I was also influenced by the market’s FOMO sentiment. Bitcoin and Ethereum surged wildly, on-chain small tokens across various chains were pumping, and tokens on the RH chain were pumping even harder. I only had two layers of positions on board, so I got a bit anxious and ended up chasing Trump at a high price. When I stopped losses today, I lost over 800 dollars, nearly 6000 RMB, which is quite a lot. Now, I have a clear concept of money and am no longer as extravagant or clueless as before. Feel the sentiment of the $ZEC market; on October 13, the bulls were almost buried.
The market is crazily trading on privacy expectations, with funds concentrated on speculating in a pulse rally, and the sentiment is extremely frenzied.
Such obvious bullish news often traps traders. I saw the overheated sentiment and directly opened a 50x short at 1265.12.
Sure enough, it surged then fell back, with the mark price at 1166.49, recording a profit of +389.80%.
Looking ahead, after the heat subsides and no one takes over, it will drift down quietly. Never mistake an oversold rebound for a trend reversal. $BTC $ETH $ZEC currently lacks directional views, what it lacks are verifiable conditions.
Scenario one: Break through 1,349.3 and hold, indicating the continuation of a weak structure. Scenario two: Break below 1,150.45, invalidating the short-term logic.
Current price 1,158.5, about 0.69% away from the 1-hour support at 1,150.45, about 16.47% away from the resistance at 1,349.3. 1-hour is weak, 4-hour is weak, RSI are 8 and 37 respectively. Volume is 0.62 times, currently only responsible for providing clues, not for drawing conclusions about the price.
With these two scenarios laid out, do you think the upper confirmation or the lower invalidation will trigger first?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.8-Hour Strategy Review｜2026-10-13｜Minimalist Review
Statistics Period: 2026-10-13 00:00 to 2026-10-13 08:00 (Asia/Singapore, excluding end time)
Contract: BTC-USDT-SWAP
Exchange Trade Receipts: 0 entries
Open or Add Position Trades: 0 entries
Close Position Trades: 0 entries
Receipts have been paginated, verified, and deduplicated by trade ID; partial trades are counted by receipt entries, which do not equal order count.
Less speculation, retaining verifiable facts.
No trades found in this period does not mean no trades occurred all day, nor does it mean no positions were held.
Signal count, account balance, and net profit/loss were not individually verified this round and are not conclusive.
For strategy testing and real trade record purposes only, not investment advice. Starting with a single chart,
all content is made up.
With Bitcoin's current trend,
all the profits from the past few days have been lost again.
If I had exited last night,
this trade wouldn't have lost.
And the unrealized loss rebounded,
closing the position is exactly the value of ultra-short-term trading.
Caught the morning's dip,
couldn't withstand the pressure.
Stop loss on unrealized loss,
ultra-short-term trading that can't go back.Finally able to understand why some people are staunch leaders of the short side; it feels like these coins are no different from meme coins, the crazier they rise, the deeper they can fall. Essentially, they are all worthless gimmicks. If you find the right opportunity to enter, and can withstand the liquidation price with sufficient capital, you can always make money from the shorts. The fate of cryptocurrency is to go short.High-leverage contracts are all about the thrill, and this $SOL trade hit the rhythm just right.
Facing macro pressure and chip clearing in October, the market is extremely volatile, and a slight mistake can lead to liquidation.
Considering the overbought indicators and capital outflow, I strictly controlled my position and opened a 100x short at 108.93.
The price dropped to 104.5, yielding a 406.68% profit.
Before and after the upcoming event, the market will likely experience intense shakeouts, so it's recommended to reduce the frequency of opening positions and prioritize protecting profits. $ZEC $BTC Using 100u for fully automated $ETH trading, Day 54 (08:15)｜Price is falling, positions are being withdrawn
A couple of days ago I mentioned trying 2410, but didn’t get to it and even chased a high; was a day late. At 8 AM it dropped to 2412, what’s meant to come will come.
Yesterday I asked, "After closing, is there new money coming in?" The answer came today: no. 2508, 2470, 2440 were broken one by one, open interest has dropped for two consecutive days, spot ETF has had net outflows for 9 days straight, nearly 700 million out.
2578 didn’t reach the 4-hour moving average, daily chart left a 50-point long upper shadow; the lower bands of three timeframes were all crowded around 2480 but didn’t hold, dropping to the support point mentioned yesterday. The lower band flipped to resistance, rebound will first look at 2480.
The daytime surge was short-sellers being swept out, 131 million swept in one hour, 85% shorts; after the sweep no one took over, so it dropped back; total long and short sweeps for the day reached 687 million.
Chips are still changing hands: retail traders remain 65% long, unchanged; big players’ short positions haven’t further retreated, shorts still dominate.
$BTC $ZEC
🤖 It’s quite comfortable here during the day, longs are exiting in batches during the rise, concentrated around 2560 turnover. Nighttime shorts are also opened well, placed before the breakdown—shorts were placed around 2525, also exited in batches during the decline. Taking over longs isn’t as comfortable, they’ve been taken over throughout the decline, current position is okay, just hanging on.$BLUR BLUR is currently at 0.01352, news of "frontend deprecation" triggered liquidations, the market is in chaos. The daily chart shows strong bearish momentum, but don't chase the bottom, control your trades.
Playing with 0.58U, placing a short order at 0.01405 waiting for a rebound, stop loss at 0.0146 to cut losses immediately; if it doesn't rebound, this trade is dead. The order is set to auto-pilot, go have a coffee, let it fall however it wants.Veteran crypto traders see the $PUMP move this time as purely a matter of experience.
In October, this coin rode the Meme hype and surged, leading many to think it would double again and rush in to catch the top.
In reality, the unlocking sell pressure is huge, and after the positive news is overdrawn, it’s just a mess. I think it can’t be pushed up, so I decisively shorted 50x at 0.005412.
Subsequently, the coin price dropped to 0.004948 as expected, and the position profit soared to 428.67%.
If there is no actual buyback effort in the future, this highly volatile asset will most likely continue to drift downwards, so don’t blindly bottom-fish. $BTC $ETH BTC rebound failed again, near 80,000 I actually don't want to make rash moves
Yesterday it bounced from 80,400 to 84,000, I thought it could hold a bit longer, but this morning it dropped back to 81,400
This market is quite difficult to trade now, if you chase shorts, 80,400 below is already very close; if you try to bottom-fish directly, the 4-hour chart clearly still shows a bearish structure.
So my own idea is simple: don't chase shorts before 80,400 breaks, if it really returns near 80,000 then see if it can stop falling.
If it can hold and then reclaim 82,000, this rebound still has potential; if 80,400 is decisively broken, then just keep waiting.
The easiest way to lose money these days is not the lack of market movement, but thinking every rebound is the bottom. $BTC BTC short at 84100 is profitable
Last month's Micron MU short at 1090
SNDK SanDisk short at 1900 continues to be profitable $BTC $PUMP dropped 12.18% in one day, but I’m actually bullish. When analyzing the chip distribution, I saw a rare scene: the price was falling, but big money was absorbing the market, right at the point where it retraced 27% from the 90-day high. The selling pressure was fully released within a day, and the chips from the drop were taken up—this price level is recognized by some. The structure of $PUMP is bullish over the next 24 hours; the downtrend stops here, and it will stabilize and recover next.$BLUR BLUR midnight raid, a single spike shatters the bulls
Bro, this midnight dump really messes with your mindset. BLUR plunged 25% in a cliff dive from 0.019 straight down to 0.0135, not even giving time to react.
The 15-minute chart drew a door, a deep red long wick with no pullback at all. The most ironic part is that the news feed still had a podcast interview hanging there saying "the market will still rise 10x," but the manipulator flipped the table.
On the eve of CPI, funds seek safety, altcoins are basically cash machines, liquidity dried up at midnight, and the manipulator could break through defenses at extremely low cost.
This late-night sneak attack was clearly a precise demolition of the bulls' leverage. Doing this in the dead of night, the whole story is written in the candlestick chart.$SNDK This morning Hynix directly fell below 1150, and SanDisk also followed down, with the lowest point hitting 1427.6. It feels very similar to mid-July, with Hynix plummeting during the day dragging SanDisk down, and SanDisk falling even more at night dragging Hynix down 🤣The market spends 80% of the time either declining or moving sideways, with actual upward trends only about 20%! Sometimes even 10% or less. So, being fully invested at the bottom and patiently holding until the top is the way to make big profits. During this period, many people sell due to small profits, psychological fear, or seeing opportunities in swing trading, then plan to buy back at what they think is a low point later, but end up missing the entire bull market. Or they hesitate to sell at the peak, fail to recognize the trend reversal, and after the price crashes, they wait for a rebound to the high point to sell, only to be trapped throughout the bear market! I've experienced both situations. So be cautious! October 13 Morning Session｜OKX Spot 08:07 (Beijing, USDT)
The three coins continued to decline overnight, all below the 20 moving averages on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts. BTC's trading volume in the last 3 full hours is 2.83 times that of the previous 3 hours.
BTC 81,458 (24h -2.71%), holding above 81,767 targets 82,273; if it falls below 81,337, watch for a retest of 80,400.
ETH 2,425 (-4.40%), holding above 2,443 targets 2,472; breaking below 2,417 targets 2,406.
ZEC 1,158 (-9.47%), holding above 1,187 targets 1,205; if it falls below 1,152, watch for another test of 1,112.
Federal Reserve official website: Overnight Hammack advocates restrictive policy, which is a personal view; BLS schedule: US CPI will be released tomorrow night at 20:30. Farside's 10/12 ETF data is incomplete. Strategy announced yesterday an increase of 250 BTC last week; institutional accumulation does not equal a short-term bottom.
My ZEC position is a 15x perpetual short, attached is the new card at 08:05; BTC and ETH contract positions are not detected for sharing. Today, watch for rebound volume; holding shorts also beware of a short squeeze. #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% Bearish Warning: Altcoins Plunge Together, Is the 1011 Scenario About to Replay?
Buddy, seeing BTC stubbornly holding at 81368, while ETH and other altcoins all drop over 4%, this sea of green on the screen is indeed unsettling.
But don’t rush to compare it to last year’s 1011.
The similarity is macro liquidity drain, long leverage being liquidated en masse, and illiquid altcoins falling the hardest.
But the scale is vastly different; last year BTC crashed 12% in half an hour, with 19 billion in liquidations across the network—that was a chain reaction triggered by stablecoin depegging.
Today BTC only dropped 1.5%, with 550 million liquidated, more like routine risk-off positioning ahead of the CPI major test.
Still getting hit, but this time it’s nowhere near a systemic collapse.
Don’t get swept away by panic; first, let’s see how tomorrow night’s CPI plays out.1572. This number now feels like a thorn stuck in the hearts of SNDK bulls. Why is it that every time there’s a bit of improvement, it immediately gets pushed back down? I stared at the chart for a while; this feeling isn’t just a normal pullback, it’s more like someone is guarding the 1600 level, and as soon as the price pokes its head above, it gets slapped right back down. There is indeed some support around 1500, but that support is weak, like the last thin layer of ice in winter—stepping on it without breaking doesn’t mean it’s safe. What is the market trading on? On the surface, it looks like cautious sentiment before the CPI and PPI releases, with repeated tug-of-war over rate hike expectations. But strangely, despite facing the same macro pressures, other US stocks haven’t shown the kind of targeted sniping rhythm that SanDisk has. This deserves deeper thought. The bullish logic is: if 1500 is truly an effective support, then this repeated testing is actually shaking out the weak hands. Once the macro data is released and rate hike expectations ease, the most heavily suppressed stocks could have the greatest rebound potential. The more crowded the shorts, the stronger the push when they cover. But the risk lies exactly here. If the selling pressure above 1600 isn’t just short-term sentiment but systematic shorting by capital, then the 1500 support is just psychological comfort. Once broken, what might be triggered isn’t bottom-fishing but a combination of stop-loss and short-chasing orders, leading to a rapid decline. I think what should be done now isn’t guessing the direction but managing position size. This kind of repeatedly suppressed movement is most dangerous when heavily betting on a breakout. Observe with light positions and consider following only after it truly stabilizes above 1600, rather than at 1500 On October 13, $FIL experienced intense market volatility, with bulls and bears fiercely competing.
Recently, the market has been hyping the halving expectation on October 15, when token release ends and supply suddenly drops by 75%.
But from a technical perspective, the RSI is already severely overbought, so I think the positive news has been priced in early. I opened a 50x short position at 1.205.
As a result, after a spike and pullback, the mark price dropped to 1.0892, and the short position gained a floating profit of 480.49%.
Looking ahead, with the halving clearly in place, it’s easy to trigger profit-taking selling. Demand won’t keep up, so the rebound is still bearish. $ZEC $MAGIC What’s next for Bitcoin?
1. Check the Bitcoin $BTC liquidation map
Below, the cumulative long liquidation strength is $1.3 billion; above, the cumulative short liquidation strength is $1 billion.
2. Key price levels to watch
· 83,000: Dropping to this level will trigger the first wave of strong long liquidations, which will accelerate the decline and create a chain reaction.
· 82,000: The second dense zone for longs. If the first wave doesn’t stop the drop, this is the next barrier.
· 84,700: The first resistance above. Breaking through here will start squeezing the shorts.
· 85,300: The second resistance above, the main gathering area for short positions.
3. Possible price movements
Upward path: Break above 84,700 → squeeze shorts between 85,177–85,333 → short covering itself is buying pressure, possibly pushing price toward around 85,865. Downward path: Break below 82,952 → trigger the main dense zone at 82,240 → this is the strongest long position bar on the entire map. Once a chain of strong liquidations opens, scattered positions remain down to 81,528, so the buffer is thin.
4. My judgment: I lean toward an initial rise, as resistance is lighter in this direction.
The short dense zone is closer to the current price, with a lower trigger cost; while the strongest support at 82,240 is still 2.2% away, requiring breaking two minor supports first.
Do you think it will sweep the top first or the bottom first? #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Brothers, BTC and ETH have taken another hit, ETH directly smashed through 2450.
$BTC $81,300 | $ETH $2,420
Bitcoin slid from above 84,000 down to 81,300, Ethereum broke below 2,450, dropping over 2.9% in 24 hours. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $498 million, with longs accounting for 83%, and 120,000 people wiped out. ETH liquidations topped at $58.14 million, 64% of which were longs.
Middle East situation + stronger dollar, risk assets collectively hammered
The trigger is the escalation in the Middle East. Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil facilities, Brent crude surged to $106, and the dollar index soared to an 18-month high. The 10-year US Treasury yield stabilized at 5.3%, continuously squeezing non-yielding assets.
ETF funds are still flowing out. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, losing a total of $542 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA alone losing $477 million. Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $681 million last week, totaling $386 million outflows since October. Funds are waiting for tomorrow night's CPI, unwilling to act rashly.
Technically, ETH's 2,400 is a psychological barrier and a dense liquidation zone for longs; breaking below may trigger a chain reaction. For BTC, watch the 80,500-81,000 support zone below.
Discuss in the comments, are you willing to buy this dip? 👇
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 ETH is currently at $2,499, down 1.12% in 24 hours, with the $2,500 psychological level repeatedly gained and lost.
Technically, the bears are in control. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, price is hugging the lower band, the middle band at 2,542 forms a strong short-term resistance, MACD bearish green bars continue to expand, and DIF and DEA are both moving downward. On the 4-hour chart, most liquidity is concentrated above; if the previous low at 2,496 breaks, 2,440 will be the next liquidity sweep target.
The capital flow further confirms the situation. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling $635 million this month, with BlackRock's ETHA leading the sell-off with $477 million. Whales are also active; one address sold 45,000 ETH in a week at an average price of $2,048, and sold another 10,000 ETH in the past 30 minutes. Even an ancient whale with a cost basis of $11.61 transferred 13,330 ETH to Coinbase preparing to exit, profiting $36.21 million.
Macro factors are not helping either. The 10-year real yield has surged to the highest level since 2008, and high real interest rates continuously suppress risk assets.
2,401 is the critical lifeline; breaking it would trigger $553 million in long liquidations. If it holds, continue trying to buy the dip and remain a steadfast bull Market voted red overnight. $BTC $81.8K, lost $82K. $ETH $2,446, under $2,500 toward $2,400. $SOL rejected at $110, now $105.66. Smart money moved opposite: Strategy bought 250 BTC dip, whale rotated $34M BTC→ETH, HK lists a new spot SOL ETF today. Fear pre-sold before CPI — headline hot (+0.6%), core cooling (+0.2%).
My levels
→ $80.4K BTC last defense
→ $2,400 ETH bounce-or-break
→ $110 SOL reclaim line
Cool core turns this dip into a launchpad. Buying fear or waiting for cheaper?October 13 Morning Session｜OKX Spot 08:07 (Beijing, USDT)
The three coins continued to decline overnight, all below the 20 MA on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts. BTC's trading volume in the last 3 full hours is 2.83 times that of the previous 3 hours.
BTC 81,458 (24h -2.71%), holding above 81,767 targets 82,273; if it falls below 81,337, watch for a retest of 80,400.
ETH 2,425 (-4.40%), holding above 2,443 targets 2,472; breaking below 2,417 targets 2,406.
ZEC 1,158 (-9.47%), holding above 1,187 targets 1,205; if it falls below 1,152, watch for another test at 1,112.
Federal Reserve official website: Overnight Hammack advocates restrictive policy, which is a personal view; BLS schedule: US CPI to be announced tomorrow night at 20:30. Farside's 10/12 ETF data is incomplete. Strategy announced yesterday an increase of 250 BTC last week; institutional accumulation does not equal a short-term bottom.
My ZEC position is a 15x perpetual short, with a new card attached at 08:05; BTC and ETH contracts are not detected for sharing positions. Today, watch for rebound volume; holding shorts also beware of a squeeze.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC CT touched $0.37962 at the 5 o'clock hourly candle and also dipped to $0.35578, closing almost back at the opening price. The trading volume for that hour was about $879,000. OKEx spot price at 8:06 Beijing time was $0.3657, up about 14.1% in 24 hours.
The lows of the next two complete hourly candles were $0.35862 and $0.35633 respectively, and have not broken below $0.35578 for now. My judgment is that there is still support at the low level, but selling pressure near the highs is also clear. Looking only at the 24-hour gain can easily miss this back-and-forth movement.
If the next complete hourly candle breaks below $0.35578, the support judgment will not hold. If it crosses back above $0.37962, I will watch whether the volume can keep up to avoid leaving another long upper shadow.
$CT Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The near-buy and far-sell quote spread is +1.7%, with the first-level pair size about $8; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.08%.#MinimalistChanTheory #$BTC $ETH Woke up early to review yesterday's isolated short positions. Yesterday I wrote that I would exit isolated positions around 80,000 and hold the full position because the isolated shorts had a poor cost basis due to early entry. BTC at 8.32*3 contracts, ETH at 2516*60 contracts. Later, when BTC dropped near 8.25, I noticed the downward momentum clearly weakened, and the 5-minute Chan theory structure was also complete, so I sold half of both BTC and ETH, planning to add more on the rebound. Then I ended up selling the other half of the isolated positions as well, waiting to re-enter at a better price.
I fell into a human nature trap again. Technically, I could see a rebound was coming, but the strength of the rebound is unpredictable. After selling the positions yesterday, the price didn't rebound upward for a long time, so I set an alarm for 6 AM. I woke up around 5 AM, checked the market, and realized the opportunity to add had passed. The rebound peak was around 4 AM. I waited three days, only to fall before dawn, and my mindset was affected by a few hundred points of cost.
So, making long-term and trend trades is very difficult. You have to endure time, loneliness, floating profits pulling back, even floating profits turning into losses, until the market unfolds and you close the position—not selling at the lowest point, but selling with confirmation. The path of practice has just begun. Today during the day, I'll see if there is an opportunity to add on the rebound. Writing this again to record my human nature weaknesses.#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？# This narrative is shifting funds from pure concept coins to assets with hardware security attributes, yet SKHYNIX plunged against the trend today. My judgment is that the short-term sell-off is not over, discipline takes precedence over bottom fishing.
Down 6.8% in 24 hours to 1142.2, the lowest at 1141.6 which is the current price, both 1-hour and 4-hour charts are running flat near the bottom, having retraced 17.32% from the 4-hour high. Trading volume is only 97,000, funding rate is zero, open interest is 41,000, longs have not been flushed out; order book buy/sell ratio is 1.75, with 294 buy orders versus 168 sell orders, there is support at the low but the strength is limited.
Strategy is neither chasing shorts nor rushing longs: lightly short on a rebound to 1178.4, stop loss at 1211.6, target at 1096.3; if volume expands and price stabilizes above 1152.7, then reverse to long, stop loss at 1133.2, target 1194.5. Single position size no more than 5%, exit immediately on break, no stubborn holding.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$SKHYNIX#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ $SKHYNIX #AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ For decentralized trading protocols like UNI, an upgrade in security narrative is fundamentally a long-term positive, but currently it must first withstand the selling pressure from the broader market. My judgment is that the short-term remains cautious.
Current price is 6.915, down 10.8% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 6.898, running almost at the intraday low. The 4-hour level has retraced 31.37% from the high, with bears dominating. The top ten order book bids are 8,980 against 12,000 asks, a buy-sell ratio of 0.72, favoring sellers; the funding rate of 0.0100% is positive, but the open interest of 5,597,000 coin-margined contracts shows bulls have not massively exited, instead there is a risk of being trapped.
Risk control priority: lightly short near 7.213 on a rebound, stop loss at 7.508, target first at 6.612; if it falls to 6.588 and finds support, reverse to long, stop loss at 6.325, target 6.937. Single position size should not exceed 3% of total capital, and no further trades on the day if stop loss is triggered.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. —
$UNI#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ $UNI Cousin's Diary: October 13, 2026, 8:04 AM
The crypto market is accelerating downward, with the three major coins simultaneously hitting recent lows. ETF funds are fully withdrawing, awaiting CPI guidance.
Main Asset Market
$BTC: Around $81,803. Total network open interest is $55.05 billion, a slight 1.28% increase in 24H. Price is falling while open interest rises, indicating shorts are adding positions. Binance rate +0.0019%, OKX +0.0066%.
$ETH: Around $2,445, breaking below the lower boundary of the whale liquidation zone. $2,401 is the critical line for bulls; breaking it will trigger $553 million long liquidation. Binance rate -0.0033%, OKX -0.0017%, shorts dominate.
$SOL: Around $105.78, 24H liquidations total $10.89 million, longs account for 94%, bulls are suffering the harshest unilateral washout. Open interest is $7.01 billion, down 3.91% in 24H, deleveraging is ongoing.
💡 Trading Suggestions
$BTC: Do not rush to bottom-fish; wait for volume expansion and a stop in the decline near $80,000.
ETH: $2,401 is the critical line; strictly exit if broken.
SOL: Do not chase shorts; wait for open interest to stabilize and rates to turn positive before reassessing.
Before CPI release, keep low leverage and control positions; avoid premature speculation. $ETH Bearish News: ETH breaks the defense line, even whale repositioning can't hold it
Bro, this isn't just a drop without underwear, they've even torn off the fig leaf.
From 2578 all the way down to 2431, ETH current price is 2436, a nearly 4% intraday plunge, brutally breaking through the so-called iron bottom at 2500.
That whale mentioned in the news sold 410 BTC on Hyperliquid and immediately bought ETH, supposedly bottom fishing, right? But still got crushed by the market's selling pressure.
Tomorrow night’s CPI hasn't come out yet, with US stocks bleeding and funds seeking safety, the manipulators took advantage of the macro vacuum to launch a surprise attack.
This volume-driven sell-off has wiped out long positions in contracts. The market is now full of panic sellers fleeing, and hardly anyone dares to catch the falling knife.
The bigger the drop, the easier it is to confuse people. Tomorrow night is like opening a blind box; right now, besides watching the show, there’s really no other move.$BTC just hit 84,200 and got hit hard, dropping back to 83,625; ETH surged from 2,492 to 2,365, now stuck at 2,523. One is a fake breakout, the other just started to rise, the market is full of drama.
1-hour chart: BTC's red bars remain, DIF at 195.1, MACD at 4.6, golden cross still alive; but J value is only 44.2, the throttle is easing. Upper boundary 84,244, lower boundary 83,320, break either side and follow that side. ETH also has a golden cross, J value 56.89, sentiment neither hot nor cold; resistance at 2,549, support at 2,517, don't get ahead before the range breaks.
But today's volatility is just the appetizer. On Tuesday, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup will release earnings one after another; on Wednesday, the US September CPI will be released, with an annual forecast of 3.6%, and core month-on-month possibly dropping to 0.2%. This is the real referee. If data is hotter than expected, the rebound might quickly turn into a bull trap; if data cools, bears will panic again.
The hardest part is the hands: chasing risks catching a falling knife; not chasing risks missing out. Do you choose to test with a small position or wait dead still for the CPI?ETH fell below the $2,500 mark today (October 13), currently trading around $2,499, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.1%. Compared to BTC, ETH's recent performance has remained weak, with a 12-month drop of approximately 42.5%, far exceeding BTC's 31.4%.
The core drag is the capital flow. The Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, with a cumulative outflow of about $635 million in October, and a single-day maximum outflow reaching $202 million. The continuous withdrawal of institutional buying has left ETH lacking support.
On-chain signals indicate selling pressure. F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun recently transferred about 2,160 ETH (approximately $5.52 million) to exchanges, intensifying short-term selling pressure. Coupled with Middle East geopolitical risks pushing up oil prices and persistent Federal Reserve tightening expectations, overall risk appetite remains under pressure.
Technically, ETH is at a critical decision point. The $2,500 level is both a psychological integer barrier and the resistance level before the September breakout. If the daily close is below this level, it could open a downward range toward $2,400–$2,450; if it holds, a technical rebound after overselling is possible.Take a look at the current $BTC supply distribution—specifically, how much supply is in profit and how much is at a loss. This metric often marks the psychological zones where sentiment shifts. When too much supply is in profit, holders start to get restless, and we also see distribution behavior. When too much supply is at a loss, it forms a capitulation selling pattern, and smart money begins buying amid the panic.
Currently, we are in a zone where a considerable portion of the supply is in profit, but not to the point of euphoria. If the market structure remains intact, this actually favors the continuation of the trend. The real risk is if the price consolidates here for too long, and the profitable supply starts exiting one after another without new demand stepping in to absorb it.
Observing price trends and liquidity changes together—when these three confirm each other, entry and exit signals become clearer. If we see a surge in profitable supply while the price stagnates, that is a distribution warning. If the proportion of profitable supply shrinks while the price holds higher lows, that indicates accumulation is quietly underway. $ETH $ZEC $MAGIC 2026.10.13 SOL & ZEC Market Daily Report
Intraday: The short-term bearish momentum for both coins is very strong, with bare K continuing to probe lower. The intraday strategy is mainly to short on rallies.
SOL: Resistance at 109 (aggressive short), 113 (conservative short); Support at 104 (aggressive long), 100 (conservative long).
ZEC: Resistance at 1230 (aggressive short), 1290 (conservative short); Support at 1150 (aggressive long), 1110 (conservative long).
Mid to long term: The major uptrend for SOL has not been broken; the current phase is a pullback within the uptrend, not a reversal. Wait to build long positions at lower levels.
ZEC has had a huge prior increase and is currently in a sharp correction phase. Do not rush to bottom-fish mid to long term. First observe the effectiveness of support around 1110; if it holds, consider low long positions. If it breaks, a deeper downside space will open.
Overall, short-term selling pressure is heavy. Do not impulsively chase longs; patiently wait for price stabilization signals.
Strictly control position size, enforce stop losses, do not hold losing positions, do not add to losing positions.
Personal advice, for reference only, profit and loss at your own risk #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Even though sol hit a new low
it doesn't affect everyone opening contracts on SOL at all
The open interest is actually still climbing...
I believe the short positions on sol in hand
have a good chance to go a long way further
$SOL #Ledger investigation update: theft temporarily concentrated in a single channel. From the news perspective, MMT is not involved, but trust in hardware wallets is shaken, which easily drags down sentiment for small-cap coins. I judge the short term to remain bearish with weak rebounds.
Current price 0.1727, down 3.2% in 24h, trading volume 647,000, liquidity is thin. Both 1-hour and 4-hour trends are downward, having fallen 9.77% from the 4-hour high. Funding rate 0.0050% remains positive, longs pay fees, open interest 8,792,000, sentiment not cleared. Order book buy/sell ratio 1.05, buyers slightly dominant, 0.1693 is near bottom support, 0.1788 is resistance.
Strategy: light short position at rebound to 0.1759, stop loss 0.1802, target 0.1668; if it falls to 0.1681 and stabilizes, go short-term long, stop loss 0.1644, target 0.1736. Position control within 10%, exit on breakout.
— Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$MMT #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#Ledger investigation update: theft temporarily concentrated in a single channel $MMT CPI hasn't been released yet, but prices have already settled.
$BTC is reported at 83406, $ETH at 2550, $SOL at 111.
What does this price level mean: staying flat, waiting for the number on the 14th.
Bloomberg's expectation is overall inflation going up, core inflation going down.
A common misunderstanding: core going down does not mean less pressure.
It just means oil prices haven't seeped into other items yet.
The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.36%, the 30-year is the highest since 2002.
With interest rates still high, risk assets can't lift their heads.
The market gives only a 17% chance of a rate hike in October, but 71.6% in December.
I originally thought inflation easing would bring relief, but it doesn't.
The premise for relief is yields bowing first.
Without that premise, sideways movement will continue.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $BTC $ETH $ETH is currently priced around 2,447 USDT, with the current narrow range seen at 2,443-2,532: 2,443 is today's low and the most immediate support; if it breaks below, pay attention to the previous low at 2,406. The first resistance above is 2,500-2,532, with 2,532 close to MA7, and further above is the MA25 near 2,646. ETH daily MACD also maintains a death cross, the 14th K-line, DIF -12.97, DEA 22.72, the green bar expanded from -33.38 to -35.70, bearish momentum is still releasing, with no sign of a golden cross yet; the price is also below both MA7 and MA25, super trend is downward, reference value about 2,754, so the daily structure is temporarily weaker than BTC. However, RSI(6) is about 25.10, already in the oversold zone, meaning volatility may increase or technical correction may occur, but oversold itself does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal. If ETH can retake 2,500-2,532, the monthly MACD green bar narrowing would provide more basis for sustained recovery; if 2,443 and then 2,406 are successively lost, downward pressure may continue. $BTC $ZEC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Snapshot: 2026-10-13 07:55:31 (Asia/Shanghai). The current unfinished K-line may participate in real-time alerts. Scan: 95 core, 87 successful, 8 failed; Current top 20 gainers' signal hit rate in the past 48 hours: 10.0% (2/20). 【Official Early Warnings (up to 3)】 No targets meeting the conditions. 【Preliminary Watchlist (up to 5)】 1. STX-USDT｜Base 8｜Quality 96｜24H volume 6.76 million Current price 0.4108｜Entry 0.4157～0.4219355｜Trigger 0.4157 Stop loss 0.3722315｜Take profit 1 0.48869712｜Take profit 2 0.53528338 Basis: Approaching the upper edge of the 45-day daily box, 4H low raised, 4H double bottom recovered; daily/4H volume 2.95/4.68; 24H 2.93%, 7-day 8.30%. Waiting to enter the entry zone and confirm trigger 2. PYTH-USDT｜Base 7｜Quality 77｜24H volume 4.34 million Current price 0.08126｜Entry 0.0887～0.0900305｜Trigger 0.0887 Stop loss 0.0749585｜Take profit 1 0.11097537｜Take profit 2 0.12538212 Basis: 4H double bottom recovered; daily/4H volume 2.62/0.76; 24H 3.31%, 7-dayObservation: Saylor is hyping again, doubling in 7 years sounds really tempting
The big players are clearly shouting orders frantically, getting anxious.
Strategy boldly claims to double the BTC holdings per share within 7 years, which breaks down to a 10% annual growth.
This boast sounds loud, but essentially it's still the same "issuing bonds to buy coins" financial game.
The long-term logic is indeed solid, but what's the current situation? The market has fallen below 82,000, ETH has crashed through 2,450, CPI is under major scrutiny, and all funds are fleeing to safety.
At this time, constantly releasing such long-term optimistic news is just a drop in the bucket for the current market, merely pie in the sky.
The big players really want to pump the market, but whether the market acknowledges it depends on the macroeconomic conditions. For us onlookers, just enjoy the show; the big hype will take time to mature.