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Saylor is up to something new again.
Strategy proposes to change the four preferred stocks to pay dividends daily, without stopping on weekends or holidays, not missing a single day.
Don’t rush to call it good news, I did the math.
This preferred stock called STRC has a floating dividend rate of 12%. What does that mean?
The 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.2%, the highest since 2007, and the whole market is saying money is expensive. Saylor borrows money to buy crypto, paying interest more than twice that of the Treasury.
What’s more clever is the daily payment design. The company itself says the goal is to keep the stock price pinned between 99 and 100 dollars long-term. Think about it, with daily interest settlement and the price fixed at par value, this is no longer a stock, it’s a demand deposit financial product disguised as a stock.
The mindset of elderly folks buying money market funds is being used by Saylor to finance BTC.
I’m not rushing to call it a Ponzi scheme, but the logic of this machine is indeed simple: the stock price can’t collapse, the coin price can’t fall, interest must be paid daily, all three conditions must hold simultaneously for the money to keep rolling. If any link breaks, the chain reverses, and then selling coins to pay interest won’t be a joke.
Shareholder vote on October 28, if passed, payments start November 1. I’ll be watching two numbers: whether STRC can hold above 99, and when it might fail to pay interest.
What do you all think, is this financial innovation or the treasury machine starting to struggle?
#Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 $BTC $MSTR $ETH The experiment involves starting a Bitcoin grid with an initial principal of 265 USDT versus investing 265 USDT in stablecoin finance with a 7% return rate.
Today is day 10, and the current grid profit is 4.7242 USDT, temporarily leading the stablecoin finance (7% annualized return) by 4.2159 USDT.
Daily records will continue the experiment until next Chinese New Year 🧧
Who do you think will be the last one laughing?
$BTC #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Trump rejecting Iran's latest Hormuz proposal did more damage to crypto than any ETF flow print this week. With 10-year Treasury yields at 5.2% and crude bid, $BTC and $ETH are trading like what they are: long-duration risk assets priced off the front end of the curve. The dominant narrative says crypto trades on its own adoption story. This week says otherwise. A geopolitical headline out of the Strait of Hormuz moved $BTC and $ETH more than any protocol upgrade or ETF headline could, because tThe total perpetual crypto positions across the network have reached $155 billion, hitting an 11-month high, with BTC fees on OKX at only 0.0021%
This morning, the BTC perpetual fee rate on OKX was just 0.0021%, pushing the annualized holding cost down to 2.3%. For those holding spot, today the turnover is at $83,051.6. The total perpetual positions across the network have climbed to $155 billion, marking an 11-month high, but on-exchange leverage is nowhere near as hot as last year.
I skimmed through the weekly report just released by GSR this morning. The network-wide open interest for perpetual contracts has climbed from $90 billion in February back up to $155 billion, reaching the highest point since the major shakeout in October last year. However, the open interest as a percentage of total crypto market cap has dropped to 2.6%, and the annualized fee rate has been compressed from 7.5% down to 2.4%. Although positions have piled up, there’s no sign of a crowd of high-leverage longs on the exchange.
I just browsed the OKX contracts page. The total perpetual open interest stands at $7.583 billion, with BTC accounting for $2.896 billion. BTC’s fee rate is only 0.0021%, which translates to about 2.3% annualized. Spot price is steady at $83,051.6, with a fear-greed index of 73. High open interest but such a low fee rate indicates that most entrants are spot hedgers and arbitrageurs; there’s no one chasing with high leverage on the order book. I personally only hold BTC spot and am not adding positions in contracts. Family, let's talk about the current market situation. Although BTC hasn't dropped much, the actual damage inside is quite significant.
$BTC and $ETH are slowly moving downwards; the decline doesn't look scary, but $ZEC took a direct hit, dropping over nine points intraday, catching many off guard. The more glorious the rise a few days ago, the harsher the correction these past two days.
Simply put, those who made a fortune earlier see the market momentum turning unfavorable and are rushing out in groups. Market confidence is clearly weakening now, funds are seeking safety, flocking to BTC and ETH, so those coins that surged earlier naturally can't withstand the selling pressure.
Many friends easily fall into this trap: seeing that the mainstream coins haven't dropped much, they think the whole market is fine and try to catch the falling strong coins. But the reality is, just because big coins hold up doesn't mean the more volatile coins are safe; when sentiment fades, the decline speed is especially fast.
The short-term market is still digesting panic selling, so don't rush to enter and scoop up chips.
Attack level: ZEC 1492
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Defense level: ZEC 1310#ETH
The current price is about 2,690 USD, with the weekly RSI around 63, indicating a relatively strong but not overheated position.
Glassnode's altcoin cycle signal has entered the "altcoin season" range, with 87% of altcoins on Binance above the 200-day moving average.
The description of the "5-year accumulation zone" needs to distinguish between two different time frames.
After the 2020 DeFi Summer, ETH indeed fluctuated repeatedly between 1,000 and 4,000 USD for a long time.
But this time, since the peak in 2025, ETH has actually only been in a correction for less than a year.
Calling it a "5-year accumulation" mixes two different stages together. $BNB If it can firmly hold above $775 again, there is a short-term chance to retest $785–$800. If $750 is broken down with high volume, the short-term structure will weaken further, and the next area to watch will be $735–$745.
$750 is the defense line, $775 is the rebound confirmation line, and $800 is the core resistance line.
First support: $750–$760, recent lows and the short-term bull-bear dividing area. $759 is exactly here, and whether this position can hold is very critical.
Second support: $735–$745, the pullback area after the previous breakout, also close to an important price zone during the mid-September rally.
Mid-term support: $710–$725, the area where the mid-September rally started; if the area around $735 also fails, this will become the next important defense zone.
First resistance: $765–$775, a dense area of MA5/MA10/MA20/MA50/MA100, and also the position BNB needs to reclaim first in the current rebound.
Second resistance: $785–$800, previous highs and round number zone. Especially $800, which is currently a clear psychological resistance level.
Strong resistance: $800–$820, only if $800 is broken through with high volume will there be a chance to open further upside space; otherwise, profit-taking is likely to appear here again. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Actually, the recent drop over the past few days is a good thing; bull market corrections always provide opportunities. Also, don't forget that this Wednesday there is PCE data, and on Friday there is the big non-farm payroll data. These are typical windows prone to artificial volatility.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October is 70%, but if willing, these two data points could directly push the rate hike probability below 30%.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #日银年内再加息成焦点
$BTC $ETH If ZEC is pulled up to 5000 USD, don't think the pumpers will just shoot themselves in the foot 💲
Many people think ZEC has no real-world application, its narrative is hollow, and it's purely a pump-and-dump scheme. As long as no one buys or shorts, the tokens will rot in the hands of the pumpers, and if the price is pulled to 5000, the pumpers will only suffer in the end.
But the logic of capital games in the crypto world has never been like this. The main force driving the rally never intends to hold the tokens forever without selling. Pulling to an exaggerated high like 5000 is meant to create a wealth myth, attracting outsiders who can't resist entering after seeing the surge. Once market sentiment is ignited, a continuous stream of follow-up funds will enter to catch the falling knife, allowing the pumpers to distribute tokens in batches and exit smoothly.
Don't mistakenly think that not shorting or not going long can trap the main force. In an extreme short squeeze, even if everyone outside the market refrains from placing orders, the stop-loss orders of existing shorts will push the price continuously upward. Many traders who shorted at high levels will keep getting liquidated in the rising market, becoming fuel for the rally. The higher the price goes, the stronger the buying pressure from liquidations.
Even if retail investors don't catch the falling knife in the short term, the main force can still use market fluctuations to swing trade repeatedly, harvesting leveraged funds over and over. The idea that tokens will rot in their hands is just an idealistic thought. Once the hype starts, there will always be people attracted by the doubled or more gains to enter.
Simply blacklisting and staying away can only protect your own funds; it can't make the so-called pumpers kill themselves. The biggest trap of pump-and-dump coins with explosive rallies is the tempting gains and high-level game, which carries extremely high risks whether you go long or short.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH📉 The crypto market continues to decline as macro pressures compress risk appetite. Oil prices have climbed back above $100, U.S. Treasury yields have risen to multi-year highs, and funds are proactively reducing risk positions ahead of PCE and GDP releases.
$BTC is currently at 82899, down 1.38%, retreating from above 84300 to near the intraday low. 82500 is a short-term support level; holding it still offers a chance for a corrective rebound. If broken, 82000 and the previous dense trading zone will be tested.
$ETH is currently at 2664, down 0.37%, showing relative resilience. Support is seen near 2635, but to regain strength it needs to reclaim 2700.
$ZEC has dropped 11.44%, quickly falling from around 1600 to 1396. This highly volatile asset is leading profit-taking. If 1385 is breached, the correction may extend further to 1350–1300.
The market is currently facing triple pressures from oil prices, bond yields, and inflation data. Support for major coins has not been completely broken, but altcoin risks have clearly increased. It is more suitable to control leverage and wait for directional confirmation before the data releases.Can't hold on anymore, the dog whales finally can't hold on.
Do you think this wave is over?
No, this wave is not over; this is just the beginning.
For these worthless altcoins, once a major crash starts, countless crashes will follow.
Look at this chart, $ZEC has plunged all the way down from the high of 1683, today a big bearish candle smashed it down to 1385, a nearly 9% drop in a single day!
Previously, it surged hard riding on ETF news and AI narratives, now it’s falling just as hard.
The news can no longer cover up “technical weakness and NFT ecosystem failure impacting Zcash’s outlook.”
Even the fundamentals are rotten, what can support the 1600 price? It’s all just retail leverage and faith holding it up.
Look at the macro side, nonfarm payroll and PCE data are coming one after another, the probability of a rate hike in October is already close to 70%.
My short position entered at 1611, current price 1394, floating profit has directly reached 133%.
How many laughed at me for being stubborn when I was holding the position?
And now?
This wave is fully profited, the best reward for sticking to shorting.
But I want to tell you, never try to catch the bottom lightly.
For these worthless altcoins, once a downtrend forms, the momentum will be terrifying.
This is just a rehearsal; the real waterfall is still ahead.
This time, I continue to stand with the shorts, see you at the foot of the mountain!
$BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Wait for the data to be released, then act calmly
This week, consider leaving the direction to the market.
The September rate decision is settled; whether October tightens further depends on the data. Tuesday's PCE and Friday's nonfarm payrolls are two key checkpoints. Inflation expectations remain high, and nonfarm forecasts are split, ensuring considerable volatility.
The market is also signaling: BTC and gold weakening together is not a simple rotation but more like active deleveraging. Rising US Treasury yields and strong oil prices signal a return of tightening expectations, naturally pressuring non-yielding assets.
So don’t bet on the data itself, watch the expectation gap. Meeting expectations is unlikely to change the tightening tone; only a clear weakening might spark easing hopes, which currently has limited probability.
A few rules:
Light positions before data, wait for big money to move first;
BTC resistance around 84,000, no rush to bottom-fish, wait for stabilization;
RWA is a long-term narrative, don’t use it to bet on short-term data.
The moment data is released is mostly a false move. Take it slow, wait for the real direction to emerge, then act calmly. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Bitcoin broke down, failing to hold 83,800.
Did you see yesterday's rebound? News came from the US-Iran side saying negotiations would restart through a mediator on the 28th, pushing oil prices up first, and Bitcoin followed, climbing to 84,000. Then Trump tweeted in the afternoon denying it, saying the reports about "willingness to lift sanctions" were fake, and even said "we will win." Once the news came out, oil prices reversed, and Bitcoin crashed from 84,000 to 83,000, with over 70,000 liquidations in one day.
A typical news-driven market—rumors of good news push prices up, official denial pulls them back, and those chasing highs get trapped.
Current market situation:
• 83,800 turned from support into resistance; if it can't reclaim this level in 4 hours, the bias is weak;
• Below that, 81,500 is the next hurdle, then the 80,000 round number;
• Around 83,000 is a tricky spot for both bulls and bears; chasing here is just throwing money at the news.
ETH is even weaker, hovering at 2,680, unable to reclaim 2,700. If 2,600 breaks, look to 2,500; if not, it will keep consolidating.
In this market, don't chase the news—you can't outrun the big players. Wait until the US-Iran talks actually produce results. Opening positions in the middle is just gambling. Keep an eye on 81,500 and 80,000; ignore everything else The account hasn't caused me any worries; two short positions are running profits, and one long position has just started. Overall, it's profitable.
$DOGE opened at 0.09984, current price 0.09504, full position 20x leverage, unrealized profit 624U, ROI 101%. This position has been held for several days, gradually declining, with little adjustment in between. Target is 0.09; will consider taking profit once reached.
$ETH opened at 2739.79, current price 2675.86, full position 20x leverage, unrealized profit 223U, ROI 49%. It was still underwater yesterday, but today it turned positive. The downtrend is smooth; continue holding, watching 2600.
$BTC opened at 84407.31, current price 84302.30, full position 20x leverage, unrealized loss 17U, ROI -2.49%. Newly opened long position, close to the cost line, will observe for now. As long as BTC doesn't break 83000, it's not a big problem. Upper target is 86000.
Calculating this account, the shorts are making smooth profits, the long is a small test position, and the account is in a profitable state. The trend hasn't changed, position size remains, patiently waiting.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Samsung invested 1 billion USD in Helix, which has no direct relation to the crypto circle.
But what I want to say is another layer.
When Helix was founded last June, who was involved? KKR, NVIDIA, Kuwait Investment Authority, Vistra. Now Samsung is coming in again with Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDS, and Samsung SDI.
To put it simply, in the AI infrastructure line, traditional giants are banding together to lock in chips.
This is exactly the same logic as institutions hoarding $BTC back then—not just to speculate and run, but to secure a position.
Where is the pain point? Money is flowing to AI, while the crypto circle is still waiting for the next narrative.
I guess, once this wave of AI infrastructure is laid out, the settlement layer for computing power, electricity, and data centers will sooner or later connect with the blockchain. At that time, those who have made these arrangements now will be the ones truly holding the trump cards.
In the long run, this is not bad news, but a reminder.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#OpenAI与Anthropic调查数万起AI安全事件 #高盛预估2027年AI相关资本开支约1.2万亿美元 $BTC $NVDA $BTC $ETH $ZEC are all undergoing a comprehensive major pullback now. BTC hit 87,000 but never held steady, then started to pull back. ETH was so strong, everyone was eyeing 2,000, but it started to pull back once it reached 1,900. Since the overall direction is still bullish, just short a little during the pullback and patiently wait for the direction to become clear before going long again. Small retail investors shouldn’t rush to bottom-fish now; the current pullback is still quite large. Be careful that bottom-fishing doesn’t turn into wiping out your funds!The most common mistake in this market cycle is not misjudging the direction, but equating a large-scale bullish outlook directly with short-term only rises and no falls. @梁老表's judgment is very clear: the big framework of the early bull market has not changed, but after losing the $85,000 level, the short term has already entered a correction rhythm; what follows is more like a complex consolidation lasting more than ten days, possibly extending to mid-October, where both bulls and bears will be repeatedly harvested.
He believes that the $BTC region formed between $57,000 and $60,000 is very likely the bottom of this bear market cycle. The weekly volume breakout from the bottom and the break of the downtrend line mean the market can no longer price with the bear market mindset of "it will return to thirty or forty thousand dollars." From an institutional perspective, below $100,000 may still be a suppression accumulation zone, and the real bull market will not be a straight line to the top, but rather a pattern of rising, correcting, shaking out, and then continuing to raise higher highs.
However, a bullish overall direction does not mean it is suitable to blindly chase longs at the current position. Previously, BTC was resisted near $87,000, the short-term watershed at $85,000 was broken again, the rebound did not retake that level, and the short-term structure has turned bearish. Liang Laobiao reminds that the market will continue to look downward for real demand: first watch if $81,500, just above $80,000, and the $79,000 to $80,000 area can hold support. If these levels hold, the market still has a chance to stop falling and challenge new highs again; if the demand zones are effectively broken, beware of a second wave correction at the weekly level, with a significantly deeper adjustment.
The key here is not to prematurely call it a "solid bottom," but to observe whether there isI really am useless for not holding on. I just feel like $ZEC is not very strong and will definitely go down. These past two days, I've been scared by this manipulator. I'm just afraid he'll make a sudden big move and scare me off with a fake breakout line he drew.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, I'm so pissed off 😡Today, focus on the US JOLTS job openings, consumer confidence, and crude oil inventories; more important data is concentrated later:
Wednesday: US August Core PCE
Thursday: ISM Manufacturing
Friday: US September Nonfarm Payrolls
These data will all affect the market's judgment on the Fed's subsequent interest rate policy.
BTC still has support from the funding side
On September 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $999 million, one of the largest single-day inflows this year; net inflow was still maintained on September 25.
So currently, the market is not simply a "complete capital withdrawal," but a tug-of-war between ongoing ETF demand and rising macro interest rate/oil price pressure.Position Rebalancing: Regularly Adjust Your Portfolio to Protect Account Gains ⚖️
After holdings rise, asset allocation can become unbalanced, making it easy to give back profits.
Real-world challenges:
Allowing positions to expand after profits, with mainstream coins decreasing in proportion and high-risk coins increasing;
Not rebalancing for a long time, leading to most profits being wiped out during a correction;
Rebalancing too frequently, causing repeated trading to erode principal.
Two optional paths:
Path A: Quarterly rebalancing, maintaining core proportions of $BTC and $ETH, reducing positions in sector coins like MATIC and DOT when profits are too high.
Path B: Threshold-triggered rebalancing, automatically reducing positions when a single coin's gain exceeds a preset ratio, without subjective market predictions.
The essence of rebalancing is to reduce assets that have risen too much at high levels and supplement quality assets at low levels, controlling risk contrarily.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Don't be afraid of the drop; what really causes people to lose money is never a single bearish candle, but panicking during the drop and chasing during the rise, reversing the rhythm back and forth.
This is especially true for small capital. Don't expect to catch every wave; being able to understand and seize one wave is already enough to create a gap.
Why is this wave dropping again now?
It's not just the crypto market itself crashing.
Oil prices are rising again, US Treasury yields continue to push higher, with the 10-year Treasury briefly breaking 5.2%. Market concerns about inflation and subsequent rate hikes have resurfaced, putting pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile, BTC just surged past 86,000 a few days ago and has now returned to around 83,000, which is a profit-taking pullback combined with macro pressure.
But one thing to note:
ETF funds have not completely withdrawn.
On September 21, the spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow close to 1 billion USD. Recently, the capital side still shows support, so this looks more like a stress test within a trend rather than completely overturning the bullish logic at the first drop.
My thinking remains simple:
BTC support levels at 82,500 / 81,500 / 80,500
ETH support levels at 2,620 / 2,560 / 2,500
BTC resistance levels at 85,000 / 87,000 / 90,000
ETH resistance levels at 2,720 / 2,850 / 3,000
The biggest taboo now is chasing the dip.
The truly comfortable positions are often given when the market is at its most uncomfortable.
I will keep watching the market.#BTC
Bitfinex's whales are indeed closing long positions, but historically this action is often not a bearish signal; on the contrary, it frequently appears before major market rallies.
Data shows that when whales' long positions retreat from their peak, prices often remain at low levels.
In early 2025, after whales closed positions, Bitcoin hovered around 74,000, then surged 50% to 112,000 within 43 days.
This "close positions first, then rally" pattern has occurred several times over the past few years.
The logic behind it is easy to understand: closing leveraged long positions reduces risk, converting holdings into spot or cash, so when the real rally starts, they have ammunition ready.Single Coin Capital Movement Ranking
$XDP price is relatively strong, with balanced active transactions: The 15-minute K-line of this root increased by 1.26%; in the three sets of 5-minute statistics, sellers account for 44.1% and buyers account for 55.9%; open interest increased by 8.09%, open interest value changed by +11.93%, indicating a real expansion in open interest, with quantity and value changes moving in the same direction. The price shows an upward trend, active transactions do not show a clear one-sided bias, and the current strength is mainly reflected in the price performance.This must be implemented, the most powerful model combined with the strongest trading tools!!
Connect Tradingview to Claude or any large model like GPT Codex in 30 seconds 😘😘😘
Tradingview recently released the official MCP, so those community MCPs from before should be deleted—they're neither as secure as the official one nor as easy to use!
You can directly view charts, data, indicator tools, manage watchlists, create filters, set and manage alerts, analyze the fundamentals of any company, and all these tasks can now be assisted by large models. It's very powerful.
I made a flowchart as a manual; everyone can try it, it's very user-friendly.Once again, trying to introduce new functionality without changing Bitcoin’s consensus or relying on soft forks inevitably adds complexity and extra assumptions.
In many cases, the resulting design can be more complicated than building the feature directly into the base layer.
If scaling or privacy can be handled at the base layer, the key question is: why move it elsewhere and accept additional assumptions?
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead
#HormuzTermsInFocus It can be adjusted to a style more like crypto news flash + sentiment reversal + market analysis, reducing repetitive metaphors from the original text, while emphasizing the key point that “positive news ≠ price increase, capital is the core”:
Writing
Positive news tells the story, capital reveals the answer.
Recently, the $BTC market has been somewhat "noisy with news, but prices not cooperating."
On one side, the Federal Reserve is sending dovish signals, and market sentiment is just starting to warm up; on the other, large on-chain BTC transfers, selling pressure, and profit-taking are disturbing the market again. $BTC is tugging back and forth around $84,000, and at this level, the biggest risk is mistaking a technical rebound for a trend reversal.
So when looking at BTC now, don’t just focus on the news.
Whether the price can hold steady, if trading volume keeps up, and whether open interest is expanding synchronously—these three signals are more important than pure “positive news.”
$ETH’s issues are even clearer:
Upgrades and Layer 2 ecosystem progress continue, network costs are dropping, and application narratives keep growing, but if new capital doesn’t clearly flow in, fundamental improvements may not immediately translate into price gains.
The ecosystem tells the long-term story; capital determines short-term valuation.
If ETH can’t even reclaim key resistance levels, chasing the price up requires caution.
Looking at $SOL, Meme hype remains high, some small tokens show exaggerated volatility, but behind high returns also come high turnover and risks of capital withdrawal.
What really matters is not who’s gone 100x again, but:
Whether big capital is still staying in the market.
There are several important upcoming events in the market.REX Shares and Osprey have updated the application for the staked version of the SEI ETF, with an effective date set for October 23. The same batch also includes $NEAR, $HYPE, $SUI, and $AVAX.
The key is the term "staked version":
A regular spot ETF can only capture price, but the staked version can also include on-chain yields, effectively opening an interest-bearing channel for traditional capital.
Once this path is cleared, the staking rates of public chains will be repriced by institutional demand, likely diluting the annualized returns for retail investors.I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
$BTC is currently around 83500, slightly up 0.21%, with 54% bullish sentiment. But don't be fooled by appearances p
Positive factors on the table: ETF weekly inflows of 2.39 billion, a certain strategy increased holdings to 847,000 coins, seemingly providing support.
However, the market really hit 83,000, directly triggering over 250 million long liquidations, with total liquidations close to 490 million.
Short-term holders sold off 23,000 coins at a loss, and a major holder from the 2015 “Satoshi era” also dumped 380 million.
The macro environment is even more restless: oil prices, US bond yields, and geopolitical tensions are all pressing down, putting risk assets under broad pressure.
Altcoin spot volume has surged to four times that of BTC, which is often a local top signal.
Don't stubbornly hold through a breakdown; wait for signals.
$ETH
$ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 DROP ALERTS $XRP $DOGE $BNB
$XRP $1.5020 → lose $1.4988 → $1.4761
$DOGE $0.09440 → lose $0.09413 → $0.09249
$BNB $757.7 → lose $756.1 → deeper downside
$XRP and $DOGE remain above short-term MAs, while $BNB stays below MA5/10/20.
Keep these supports in focus. A confirmed breakdown could trigger stronger downside momentum.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead
#HormuzTermsInFocus Three orders last night, all forcibly liquidated:
The first one, $ZEC.
50x leverage, entered at 1588.92, liquidated at 1469.52, lost 20.40 USDT.
The second one, $ETH.
100x leverage, entered at 2687.49, liquidated at 2673.13, lost 5.60 USDT.
The third one, $AKE.
10x leverage, entered at 0.03205, liquidated at 0.03183, lost 1.95 USDT.
Adding up the three trades, it’s just over 20 USDT.
But seeing “liquidation” appear one by one in the account still made my heart sink.
Especially the $ZEC trade, I kept thinking: "It’s already dropped so much, it should rebound by now."
The $ETH trade was the same, staring at the price, fantasizing that if it just came back a little, I could exit.
But the market didn’t care about my fantasies at all.
The candlesticks kept moving, the position kept shrinking, and in the end, only three cold results remained.
The most ironic thing is, I always tell others to control position size and set stop losses, but when it comes to myself, I still hold onto wishful thinking.
The money really isn’t much.
But what I lost this time wasn’t just over 20 USDT, but also that bit of arrogant luck.
The scariest thing about contracts isn’t losing money, but wanting to immediately make it back after losing.
So this time, I won’t chase.
I’ll stop first and review these three trades again.
The market won’t run away, and opportunities won’t disappear. Hackers attempted to transfer over $50 million through NEAR Intents, but only $166,000 succeeded, while another $503,000 was frozen during execution. The risk intelligence layer SHIELD played a key role behind the scenes, and the team voluntarily gave up the bounty for recovering stolen funds.
This incident makes me more optimistic about NEAR's development direction. Whether cross-chain solutions can enable fund flow depends on risk control, which determines if this infrastructure can be adopted by more institutions. Privacy protection and identifying known stolen funds can coexist; the key is that interception permissions, judgment rules, and appeal mechanisms are sufficiently transparent. For NEAR to undertake larger-scale financial business, it needs to build trust beyond execution efficiency, and this time it delivered a perfect answer. $NEAR Why has market volatility intensified while the major indexes haven't dropped much, and why have altcoins experienced significant pullbacks?
For the October FOMC, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 64.8%, with the target rate reaching 4.00% to 4.25%. The probability of maintaining the current rate is 35.2%, keeping it at 3.75% to 4.00%. The market has almost not priced in the possibility of a single 50 basis point hike.
Looking at the cumulative pricing for December: maintaining the current rate is 7.6%, cumulative 25 basis point hikes at 41.6%, and cumulative 50 basis point hikes at 50.9%.
Key points:
First, expectations have already risen recently; this week's PCE and nonfarm payrolls are decisive variables. If core PCE combined with nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will surge above 70%. If both data points weaken, the probability will quickly fall below 50%, cooling rate hike expectations.
Second, FedWatch essentially reflects the implied probabilities from interest rate futures, not analyst forecasts, and fluctuates intraday with U.S. Treasury yields and high-frequency news.
Third, the current market benchmark already prices in a high probability of an October rate hike but still retains nearly one-third betting space for no hike, which explains why asset volatility is significant after data releases.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $AAVE founder is considering adding AAVE burn in Aavenomics 3.0.
Previously, protocol revenue buybacks and Safety Module adjustments were done, now it's time for burning.
The logic behind this combination is very clear:
Tie the protocol's earnings to the token supply, allowing holders to share in the protocol's growth.
However, the specific methods, scale, and source of funds have not been disclosed yet; currently, it's just a directional statement.
The DeFi leader is starting to seriously work on tokenomics, which puts considerable pressure on similar projects.I'll give you three seconds to stare at this daily chart of ZEC,
Do you think this is a bottoming formation, or the last bull trap before the slaughter?
I guess many people would say "the pullback is in place, it's time to buy the dip."
It is precisely this intuition that will cost you dearly.
Look at the news: the floor price of the zkSNARKs NFT project in the ZEC ecosystem has been smashed from 1.5 ZEC down to 0.976 ZEC, more than halved.
A star project claiming to have raised 17 million USD is now being directly called a scam by industry veterans.
The privacy sector story can no longer be told.
Now look at the on-chain data. Last night, whale Lee Goon Wang placed a limit sell order of 15,000 ZEC on Hyperliquid, worth 23 million USD.
Note, his order price is 2% below the market price.
A person holding a huge amount of chips is willing to take a loss just to get out quickly.
What do you think retail investors are buying into here?
The technicals need no further explanation.
MACD has formed a death cross below zero, RSI is falling from a high level, and a bearish divergence on the daily chart has appeared.
Below 1488 USD, there is nearly 44 million USD worth of long liquidation leverage stacked up; once broken, a chain liquidation will directly smash the price down.
The non-farm payrolls come out this Friday, with a 67.5% chance of a rate hike; the macro bearish factors have not yet materialized.
Three signals resonate together—don’t catch a falling knife.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 Nonfarm Payrolls + PCE Incoming, Understand the Underlying Logic of the Crypto Market #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
This week, the nonfarm employment data and PCE inflation data will be released. These two are core reference indicators for the Federal Reserve to assess inflation and decide monetary policy.
From a fundamental logic perspective: the Fed's rate cut expectations are the underlying capital driver of the crypto market.
If employment data is strong and PCE inflation exceeds expectations, it means the economy is still hot, and the Fed's rate cut plan will be delayed. Dollar liquidity tightens in the market, risk asset valuations come under pressure, and the crypto market is prone to pullback.
Conversely, if employment weakens and PCE cools down, rate cut expectations will quickly rise, dollar liquidity easing expectations increase, and capital is more willing to flow into highly elastic assets like crypto, fueling a rally.
Volatility during data release periods will be sharply amplified, and the market is prone to two-way spikes. Whether long or short, the risk of heavy position speculation is extremely high.
Patiently waiting for the data to land and clearly seeing the real capital choices is far more important than betting in advance.
What do you think about this PCE data? Will it be higher or lower than expected?
Everyone is welcome to discuss together#BTC
The Wyckoff framework really fits: accumulation, manipulation, distribution.
40 billion short positions were cleared in 48 hours, and sentiment reversed overnight.
This speed itself is a characteristic of the manipulation phase.
But how far the framework has progressed depends on price confirmation, not on the phase naming.ETF money flow is creating a notable base for $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL, but prices still need confirmation through actual action. $BTC has a test zone at $82K–$83K; $ETH needs to reclaim $2.8K to extend the uptrend; $SOL needs to decisively break above $120 with good liquidity. When buying, it's better to wait for a successful price retest rather than chasing the price. When selling, partial profit-taking at resistance zones is advisable. If ETF money flow weakens while prices lose support, the risk of correction increases and reducing exposure is necessary. This is a reference perspective. Price needs to follow the money flow.At this point in the market, the bulls have almost no strength left to fight back. The hourly moving averages are firmly suppressing, the MACD has formed a death cross with momentum bars continuing to expand, and the price is grinding along the lower edge of the consolidation range, clearly laying the groundwork for liquidity below.
There is a very high concentration of long liquidations stacked between 85200 and 86200, and the bears have no reason to let this opportunity slip. If there is repeated bull baiting around 82900 followed by a drop, breaking 82500 will trigger a direct stampede, with the market heading straight for the dense liquidation zone.
I just completed a trade and came back; my phone is almost dead from constant debt collection calls, but I understand this market structure better than anyone. Don’t try to catch a falling knife; if the rebound fails to surpass 83500, that’s a short entry point.
Entry zone is between 83200 and 83500, take profit first at 81800, then at 80500. Place stop loss above 84300; if it breaks, accept it—holding the position is not an option.
$BTC
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
@OKX星球 The signals for crypto ETFs remain positive today.
The latest complete data shows:
BTC ETF: net inflow of about $135 million
ETH ETF: net inflow of about $87 million
SOL ETF: net inflow of about $86.7 million
Notably, BTC, ETH, and SOL all maintain net capital inflows simultaneously. BTC remains the core position for institutional funds, but the capital strength of ETH and SOL has significantly increased, especially SOL, whose inflow ratio is quite prominent given the current ETF scale.
An interesting phenomenon is emerging in the market: despite price fluctuations and even pullbacks, ETF funds have not noticeably withdrawn.
If this capital structure continues, the short-term pullback seems more like a test of support rather than a full shift of institutional funds.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #ETF #CryptoDROP ALERTS $XRP $DOGE $BNB
$XRP $1.5020 → lose $1.4988 → $1.4761
$DOGE $0.09440 → lose $0.09413 → $0.09249
$BNB $757.7 → lose $756.1 → deeper downside
XRP and DOGE are holding above short-term MAs, but BNB remains below MA5/10/20.
Watch these support levels closely. A clean breakdown could accelerate the drop.
@OKX成长学院 #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead Okay. Let's set up a short-term trading framework based on the early trading session on September 29 Beijing time. Currently, ETH is around $2,672.87, with yesterday's high and low approximately $2,702.45 / $2,638.52; technical indicators show there is still some short-term bullish momentum, but the price is in the middle of a consolidation range. OKX+2
ETH 5-minute / 15-minute trading plan
Directional trigger zones and stop-loss references for the first target🟢 Buy on pullback 2645–2660, 2628 below 2685 → 2700🟢 Buy on breakout 2705–2715, hold above 2688 below 2740 → 2770🔴 Sell on rally 2695–2715 resistance at 2730 above 2670 → 2650🔴 Sell on breakdown 2638 break below and fail to reclaim 2660 above 2610 → 2580
These price levels are based on yesterday's intraday range of $2,638–2,702 and the current pivot area around $2,672–2,690, forming a short-term trading framework, not a certainty prediction. Investing's classic pivot is about 2680.3, R1 about 2688.9, R2 about 2695.0, R3 about 2703.5.
① My main focus is on long positions
First plan: 2645–2660 pullback buy
The best conditions are:
15-minute pullback to 2645–2660
5-minute signs of bottoming, such as long lower shadows, engulfing, or two consecutive candles reclaiming
Then enter long
Targets can be sequentially:
2680 → 2695 → 2705/2720
If 2638 is clearly broken down, do not force a long. Yesterday's low was 2638.52. $BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
Second plan: breakout above 2705 long
Do not chase on a sudden spike above 2705.
More reliable conditions are:
5-minute close above 2705 → pullback to 2700–2705 without breaking → then consider long.
Above, watch 2740, 2770, and the larger 2750–2800 resistance zone. Recent analysis also views 2750–2800 as a clear supply area.
② Focus on short positions
First plan: 2695–2715 sell on rally
This is the short zone I consider worth watching today.
If price:
2695 → 2705 → 2715
Rallies consecutively but fails to hold on 5-minute chart, then falls back below 2695, consider short.
Targets:
2675 → 2655 → 2638
Stop loss is more reasonable above 2725–2730.
Second plan: 2638 breakdown short
If 15-minute candle closes below 2638, then 5-minute pullback to 2638–2650 fails, consider short accordingly.
Targets first look at:
2610 → 2580 → 2560
On a larger scale, Reuters' previous technical analysis also regards 2560–2565 as an important defense zone. Reuters
Key numbers today
2705: upper edge of long-short contention
2695: important short-term resistance
2680: current pivot vicinity
2660–2645: pullback buy observation zone
2638: very critical breakdown line today
2560–2565: important support after further weakening on 15-minute level
Currently ETH is about 2673, so I won't blindly chase long or short near the middle around 2670; wait for it to approach the key zones above and confirm with 5-minute candles. The current daily technical data RSI(14) is about 53, ATR about 21, indicating there is still room for short-term volatility. Masayoshi Son went all in again; he has completely run out of options.
$11.1 billion in debt, with interest rates up to 9.75%, the largest high-yield corporate bond in Asia-Pacific history.
The money didn’t stay in the account for two days before it was transferred to OpenAI.
Including this, SoftBank’s total investment in OpenAI has reached $64.6 billion.
To raise funds, he liquidated all his Nvidia shares and increased Arm’s mortgage loan limit from 20 billion to 25 billion.
He sold everything he could sell and mortgaged everything he could mortgage.
No hedging, no fallback.
He’s betting that if OpenAI reaches Nvidia’s market value, his 13% stake will be worth 650 billion, ten times his investment.
However, OpenAI’s Q1 revenue was 5.7 billion with an operating loss of 9.3 billion.
Anthropic just surpassed its valuation and is preparing to IPO before it.
Thirty years ago, he invested 20 million in Alibaba in six minutes, which turned into 58 billion fourteen years later.
Thirty years later, he’s betting his entire fortune that OpenAI is worth 650 billion.
There are only two differences:
Back then with Alibaba, he could afford to wait.
This time, just the annual interest burns nearly 1 billion.
When investing in Alibaba, Masayoshi Son was betting on ten years later.
But this time, the creditors only give him until March 2027.Revised into a more newsworthy version with some market analysis and incremental information:
SUI Market Watch
📊 $SUI enters a consolidation and recovery phase; key range worth close monitoring
After a rapid surge followed by a pullback, $SUI is currently in a sideways consolidation, with bulls and bears rebalancing forces.
On the 4-hour chart: 🔴 Resistance: 1.2109 🟢 Support: 1.1239
The key focus next is whether 1.2109 can be effectively broken and held.
If a breakout with volume occurs, there is potential for further upward space; if the rebound is blocked again, short-term caution is needed for a possible retest of support near 1.1239.
At present, this looks more like a "correction after a rally" rather than confirmation of a new trend.
Additionally, several important variables this week:
📌 PCE and Nonfarm Payroll data will impact Fed rate expectations
📌 Micron’s earnings report is approaching; AI storage demand may become a focal point for tech stocks and risk assets
📌 US-Iran negotiations continue on conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz; oil prices and risk sentiment may still influence market risk appetite
Therefore, for $SUI in the short term, don’t just watch the candlesticks; whether $BTC can hold steady and if market liquidity improves are equally important.
$BTC $ZEC $SUI
#ThisWeekKeyNonfarmAndPCEData #EarningsWatch #MicronEarnings #AIStorageDemand #USIranHormuzNegotiations
Added clear stop-loss and invalidation levels
Condensed macro info to highlight the SUI main storyline
Included price and volume confirmation conditions Duan Yongping's latest stock holdings, after looking around, I can sum it up in two words: contradiction.
On the US stock side, he is reducing positions.
In Q2, he reduced Nvidia by 54%, Google by 47%,
Apple's position dropped from a peak of 80% to 41%.
He completely sold off TSMC.
He once said: "Apple is no longer cheap."
But on the other hand, he is increasing positions.
On September 28, at 1230.85 yuan, he bought 30,000 shares of Moutai, spending 36.92 million.
This is the third public increase in Moutai this year.
He is also buying Pop Mart, having already crossed the shareholding threshold in Hong Kong stocks.
A person known as "China's Buffett,"
selling US stocks on one side while buying Chinese assets on the other.
Even more interesting is what he said:
"I only have three heavy positions: Apple, Moutai, Tencent."
Apple is decreasing.
Moutai is increasing.
Tencent, he didn't say he reduced.
Think about it, really think about it. ZEC isn't overheating, right? These few positions feel pretty good for opening trades, but the $ZEC trade ran too early. Originally a short near 1660, but it ran away, what a pity.
$ETH short at 2705 last night took a small hit, which is still good. Currently holding two short positions, one $LIT, one Ethereum. Today, Ethereum is still bearish, feels like 2500 is already beckoning.
#ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard #BTC
This retracement is only 16%, shallower than any previous one in history.
If this pattern continues, the bottom of the next cycle will be higher.
But the premise is that the retracement continues to narrow, which depends on the depth of institutional funds and the macro environment.
The direction may be correct, but the premise may not always hold true."Bitcoin Market Early Report: Interest Rate Pressure, Volatile Decline"
— The price trend projection for early this week is laid out for you!
BTC current price is about 83,200, falling back from the high of 87,385, with a low touching 82,500. Interest rate hike expectations are suppressing the market, ETF buying is slowing down, short-term pressure exists.
Volume strength: The 4-hour short-term bearish force is releasing, bulls are also fighting hard, the volatility range is narrowing, indicating a direction will be chosen soon.
On-chain data: BlackRock withdrew about 1,150 BTC from Coinbase Prime, institutions are withdrawing coins. Binance had a net outflow of over 13,800 BTC in a single day, the largest since 2023, exchange reserves dropped from 705,000 to 685,000. ETF institutional buying is slowing down.
Structural pattern: 82.5K-83K is the key support zone. Resistance above is 84K-85K, support below at 82,500, further down 81,500 is the liquidation level.
Xiaolong's core judgment:
Under interest rate pressure, 82,500 is the short-term watershed; holding it means consolidation and accumulation, breaking it means looking at 81,500.
Personally, I think the price will fluctuate narrowly up and down in the short term to accumulate strength, and the subsequent negative news will push the price down sharply.
However, the downside space is limited, mainly because bearish volume is not strong nor sustained.
My judgment remains unchanged: the highest probability is a pullback to 80K-81K, which is the real opportunity to get in.#This week迎Nonfarm and PCE key data
Currently, US spot BTC and ETFs saw about $2.4 billion net inflow last week, institutional funds continue to accumulate, and Strategy also increased BTC holdings again, indicating a clear long-term capital demand.
Data shows pressure from US Treasury yields and interest rate expectations. This week, PCE, employment, and nonfarm data will be released intensively. If the data is hotter than expected, BTC may still experience significant volatility.
If BTC falls but ETFs continue to have net inflows, it indicates that chips are transferring from short-term funds to long-term funds. If the price fluctuates, the capital flow is often more worth watching.Prices are falling, but buying hasn't stopped $BTC $ETH $SOL
Just came across a set of data, quite interesting. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.39 billion last week. One company spent $143 million to buy 1,665 BTC, bringing its total holdings to over 840,000 BTC. Also, a veteran institution's Ethereum holdings officially surpassed 6 million ETH. Not only Bitcoin, Ethereum spot ETFs attracted nearly $690 million in the same period, with SOL and XRP also seeing capital inflows.
But what about the market? BTC has been declining these past two days, currently around $83,000, and the group chat is filled with panic saying "it's over."
The strange thing is, large buy orders haven't stopped at all. ETF money is coming in, institutional money is coming in, the rhythm doesn't follow market sentiment at all. Do you think institutions have a longer-term view? Or could they be wrong too? No one can say for sure in the short term. But one thing is clear: in these days, the direction of price and the direction of money are completely opposite.
This kind of mismatch can't prove who's right or wrong in the short term. It's more like a slow variable that needs weeks or even months to reveal the answer. Traders suffer the most: you watch the candlesticks nervously, while the funds next door keep coming in one transaction at a time as planned. The market's game often hides in this kind of cognitive gap.$UNI exchange balances continue to hit new highs, with large holders still depositing coins into exchanges, continuing clear distribution. Planning to open a hedging short position until the exchange balance stops increasing, then close the position. When the balance decreases and the price reaches the target, open a spot position.
The hedge position can also help prevent losses. In case the first quarter altcoin season ends and enters a range-bound/long-term downward shakeout with a 30-50% pullback combined with a long duration, it can be tough. I discussed my thoughts in "Why I close contract positions and reduce altcoin holdings at this time..." which everyone can review for reference.
There is still 1 year and 7 months until the halving day, plenty of time to build positions. On one hand, you want to avoid missing out, on the other hand, you need to consider how to endure this year-plus after building positions. But UNI's weekly and monthly charts are strongly bullish, so don't fear being trapped; holding on and not getting shaken out is key. Buy more as it falls. Recently breaking below 8.4 to hunt longs by the main force is still very attractive.