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Exceeding expectations by 3.7% directly increases the uncertainty of a rate hike in October, gold plummets, government bonds hit new highs, with a chance to see BTC starting with 7$ETH What a real shock! The whale must have had insider information, otherwise how could they have pulled a one-hour breakeven liquidation of long positions!!
September CPI released, year-on-year 3.7% exceeding expectations (expected 3.6%), core even harsher at 2.6% year-on-year (expected 2.5%), month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%).
The main cause is the surge in gasoline prices, but the core is also accelerating, indicating pressure beyond just energy.
After the CPI release, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to around 5.3%, the 2-year yield jumped significantly, and the probability of a rate hike in October doubled from 22% to nearly 40%, hitting risk assets hard.
$BTC is clearly under short-term pressure, having fallen back to around 82.6K.
Rising US Treasury yields plus increasing rate hike expectations are headwinds for crypto and growth stocks; first, watch if the 82k level can hold.
If it breaks, it may further test 80k or even lower.
Gold $XAU and the Nasdaq also face valuation pressure.
In the medium term, if energy prices remain high and the core inflation does not cool down, the Fed’s rate hike path by year-end will be tougher, and risk assets will likely remain weak and volatile.
But if subsequent PCE or employment data soften, the market may reprice to "only one hike."
The key is to watch next week’s data and oil price trends; don’t rush to bottom-fish, wait and see. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $TRUTH The second highest gainer TRUTH, don't rush to short it, this coin has no spot market. Without spot market, it's easy to have pump-and-dump coins, like the former river, lab, rave, beat, whose highs were 50 to 100 times their lows. If you keep shorting using free fuel, it can keep rocketing up. In extreme cases, I suspect it could surge from the lowest point around 0.008 to 5 to 7 times higher at 0.047～0.055. If you really want to short: please use light positions, low leverage, keep plenty of margin reserved, start at a price point of at least 0.0312 or above, light positions, light positions, light positions, test the waters carefully. This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any advice. It's purely my own analysis and hypothesis, to be verified by facts.The US Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $24.8 million on October 13, ending a streak of ten consecutive trading days of net outflows. The full daily report from Farside shows a net outflow of $85.4 million the previous day, so this time the capital flow finally turned positive.
The inflow was uneven: the Grayscale fund with the code ETH saw an inflow of $16.7 million, Fidelity's FETH had an inflow of $8.1 million, and the other listed funds all recorded zero. Here, ETH is the fund code, not an additional on-chain transfer.
For the Ethereum market, the change is that net subscriptions of these funds have again exceeded net redemptions, temporarily halting the continuous withdrawal of funds through the fund channel for one day. Subscriptions and redemptions affect the asset size held by the funds, but these flows do not represent the total daily buy and sell volume of ETH on exchanges, nor can they be directly converted into spot buy orders at the same moment.
In the previous ten trading days, the total outflow was about $783 million, and this one-day inflow only recovers about 3.2%. Next, it remains to be seen whether net inflows can continue and expand to more funds to better judge whether the withdrawal pressure is continuously easing.
Source and chart: Farside US Ethereum ETF daily report, amounts in USD; verified after 21:00 Beijing time on 10/14. The row for 10/14 is still incomplete and should not be interpreted as zero flow. $ETH Totally lost! The harshest part of this CPI is not that the overall number exceeded expectations, but that core inflation rose simultaneously. The market had always used energy price hikes as an excuse, thinking core inflation was fine. Now that this data is out, that excuse is completely torn apart. Inflation is not just driven by oil prices; the comprehensive pressure remains, and expectations for rate cuts have been slapped down.
First, look at $BTC. Once the data came out, rate cut expectations were slapped in the face, so $BTC is definitely under short-term pressure. But don’t panic, institutional base holdings are still there, and long-term holders on-chain are still accumulating. If panic selling comes out, it might actually give whales a chance to buy cheap. Hold the base firmly, don’t rush to bottom-fish in the short term.
Next, look at $ETH. ETF funds have been flowing out all along, and when $BTC weakens, $ETH falls faster than anyone. Don’t expect it to strengthen independently in the short term; it will bear the selling pressure along with the market.
Finally, look at $XAUT gold. Core inflation exceeding expectations is actually a double-edged sword for gold. In the short term, it’s suppressed by rate hike expectations and a stronger dollar, which hurts it. But the fact that inflation can’t be contained itself proves that gold’s long-term logic is intact. Allocation demand is still coming in, central banks are still buying, and if it falls, someone will step in.
Brothers, this data is here to kill expectations. Hold your spot base firmly, unload all short-term leverage, and wait for this wave of panic to subside before making moves. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 @OKX星球 Brothers, the September CPI is finally out! The big coin $BTC is bearish again. In the afternoon warm-up, I judged that the overall CPI might be pushed up by energy, but the core month-on-month might drop to 0.2%. The result was an overall year-on-year of 3.7%, higher than some market expectations of 3.6%; core year-on-year 2.6%, month-on-month 0.3%, both exceeding expectations. The energy line was predicted correctly, but the core is indeed more stubborn than I expected; this time my core judgment was too optimistic. Gasoline prices in September rose 9.1% month-on-month, and energy costs pushed overall inflation up. This is not just a problem of rising oil prices. Excluding food and energy, the core month-on-month still maintained 0.3%, and housing costs also rose 0.4%. Employment has cooled down, but prices have not dropped as the market expected, making it harder for the Fed to confidently stop raising rates. The core CPI exceeding expectations may cause the market to readjust the probability of further rate hikes, with the dollar and US Treasury yields continuing to strengthen, which is obviously not good news for the big coin. So currently, my judgment is short-term bearish, leaning towards weak consolidation first, but we still need to see how the market digests it. After the data release, the big coin once returned to around 82700; next, let's see if it can stand back above 83000. If pressure continues, I will watch the previous low near 80400.What’s really worth watching today among mainstream coins is BTC, which once dropped to 81,000 intraday, then reclaimed around 83,600, while ETH remains only at 2,500, and SOL fell further to around 106. BTC is starting to find support below, but high Beta coins continue to underperform, indicating that funds are currently flowing defensively rather than showing a full return to risk appetite.
#BTC fighting to reclaim 84,000
#High Beta continues to underperform
$BTC is currently around 83,600, with a low today of 81,000 and a high of 84,200. The 81,000–82,000 range has become the most critical support zone; above that, 84,000–84,200 is the first resistance, and only after firmly holding above that should we look toward 85,000. It’s good that BTC could pull back from the lows today, but it still needs to confirm a breakout above the highs.
$ETH is currently about 2,504, down roughly 1.5% in 24 hours. The 2,480–2,500 range remains the first line of defense; on the upside, watch 2,530 first, and only after firmly holding above 2,550 can it be considered to have shaken off weakness.
$SOL is currently about 106.6, down nearly 4% in 24 hours. The 105–106 range is the first support, with 109–110 turning back into resistance. Only after holding above 110 should we look toward 112–115.
This lineup: BTC waits for confirmation at 84,000, ETH waits for 2,550, SOL waits for 110. BTC’s pullback is just the first step; whether high Beta coins can stop lagging behind will determine the quality of the rebound. $BTC
The US September CPI data has just been released, with the overall year-on-year increase rising to 3.7% (previous value 3.4%), slightly above the market expectation of 3.6%; core CPI rose to 2.6% (previous value 2.4%), also higher than the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month increase was 0.6%, one of the larger rises in recent months.
The main driver came from energy: gasoline prices surged 9.1% in a single month, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase, with the energy component's year-on-year increase reaching 20.4%. However, core inflation also rose simultaneously, indicating that price pressures are not solely driven by oil prices; other items such as housing also contributed.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and now with inflation data accelerating again, the market is adjusting its pricing of the subsequent policy path. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.86%, reflecting that investors are beginning to reassess the possibility that "inflation stickiness may force the Fed to raise rates again."
In simple terms: energy pushed up the overall data, core inflation is also rising, still some distance from the Fed's 2% target, and discussions about further policy tightening are back on the table. The data has been confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations. September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than previous market expectations, and the core CPI excluding energy and food was also higher than estimated, indicating inflation stickiness stronger than the market's earlier optimistic judgment. Rising energy prices pushed up overall CPI, while the strength in core components shows that service-side inflation is not falling as expected, not just a short-term disturbance from oil prices.
After the data release, the market raised the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening in the short term. Previously, the market was betting on inflation cooling continuously and the tightening cycle ending; this data directly revised expectations, heating up hawkish pricing.
Simply put: inflation is not out of control again, but the downward pace has slowed, leaving the Fed the option to continue raising rates. Future policies will rely more on data and will not easily close the door on further rate hikes.
Transmission to the crypto market is a short-term negative. Rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets; high-beta assets like BTC and ETH are prone to pressure, with short-term volatility increasing. But this is a re-pricing of expectations, not a direct trend reversal; subsequent developments depend on officials' speeches, PCE, and other inflation indicators for verification.
Key follow-ups: latest statements from Fed officials, the probability of a rate hike at the December meeting, and whether core service inflation remains persistently stubborn. If multiple inflation indicators continue to strengthen, tightening expectations will keep suppressing risk assets; if it is just a single-month pulse, after digestion, the market is likely to return to its original rhythm. $BTC $ETH $ZEC All three chains are generating revenue, but prices are not rising. Because the market is starting to distinguish one thing: who is making money, and whose pockets the money is going into.
$BTC: On-chain fees and block rewards go to miners, not holders. Miners sell coins to pay electricity bills, which is continuous selling pressure. BTC holders do not share network income, only scarcity. So no matter how active the on-chain activity is, it has no direct relation to the coin price. BTC's value comes from consensus, not cash flow.
$ETH: Mainnet gas fees are largely diverted to L2s, weakening value capture. EIP-1559 burns part of the fees, but the burn amount decreases as L2s prosper. Stakers earn issuance and priority fees, but issuance is inflationary, diluting non-stakers. ETH's cash flow story is becoming increasingly strained.
$SOL: Fees and MEV income go to validators and stakers. Inflation subsidizes validators, diluting holders. The more active the ecosystem, the more validators earn, but ordinary holders get nothing except price. SOL's economic model essentially uses inflation to buy security.
On-chain revenue does not equal token value. Only tokens that can capture revenue have a foundation for long-term appreciation. BTC relies on consensus, ETH is struggling, SOL relies on inflation. Understand whether what you hold is an asset or fuel working for others. - Four data points exceeded expectations, but the real signal is not in the overall year-on-year 3.7%, but in the core month-on-month holding steady at 0.3% for the second consecutive month — this is the second refutation of the consensus on "inflation steadily falling." - The stickiness of the core, via the upward revision of the real interest rate path, directly raises the discount rate for risk assets. Assets with no cash flow and duration approaching infinity bear the heaviest valuation compression; this is the mechanism reason why crypto is more resilient under similar shocks. - The price structure has not been broken: after the data release, BTC instantly dropped about a thousand dollars, then was bought back. The negative news failed to break through, which is the most noteworthy fact in the current market. --- **1. What is overlooked is the sub-items** The overall year-on-year 3.7% is higher than the expected 3.6%, and the month-on-month 0.6% meets expectations. It looks like a report pushed up by energy with a decent structure — gasoline was the main contributor to last month's increase, which is a volatile item. The problem lies in the core sub-items. Core month-on-month is 0.3%, while the market originally expected a drop to 0.2%; core year-on-year is 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, price pressure shows no signs of easing and has been rising at the same pace for two consecutive months. Single-month fluctuations can be ignored, but two consecutive months in the same direction constitute evidence. This report does not provide new arguments for "inflation sustainably returning to target." **2. Transmission relies on discount rates, not sentiment** The damage from core stickiness is not in the current rate hike probability, but in the entire interest rate path being revised upward. The expectation of nominal rate decline has been postponed 【2026/10/14 East 8 Zone 20:58】Bitcoin crashed? Let me tell you the truth!
1. First, let's interpret the released CPI data: overall inflation exceeded expectations, so there was a drop after the data release. This was the first reaction of retail investors and automated trading programs, but this drop was driven by sentiment, with no substantial new negative factors, so it won't last long; once the market calms down, it will realize that the real factor deciding whether the Fed raises rates is core inflation, which is completely within expectations and not out of control. The market already thinks the probability of a rate hike in October is very low. As long as core inflation doesn't exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike won't rise. Those who shorted before will quickly close their positions and buy back when they see no new negative factors. Closing short positions is itself buying, which will pull the price back up, even turning positive and closing higher. There's a saying in trading: the market uses headlines to crash prices, but uses the substance to set prices!
2. In terms of operations, the bullish strategy updated yesterday and during the day is still valid. Don't be fooled by the surface data you see. Remember, core inflation is what needs attention. Although the current technical aspect is under some pressure, the resistance will be broken soon. This week, I firmly believe it will reach the top of the daily cycle box around 86500 again.【2026/10/14 East 8 Zone 20:52】Bitcoin crashed? Let me tell you the truth!
1. First, let's interpret the released CPI data: overall inflation exceeded expectations, so there was a drop after the data release. This was the first reaction of retail investors and automated trading programs, but this drop was driven by sentiment, with no substantial new negative factors, so it won't last long; once the market calms down, it will realize that the real factor deciding whether the Fed raises interest rates is core inflation, which is completely within expectations and not out of control. The market already thinks the probability of a rate hike in October is very low. As long as core inflation doesn't exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike won't rise. Those who shorted before will quickly close their positions and buy back when they see no new negative factors. Closing short positions is itself buying, which will pull the price back, even turning it positive and closing higher. There's a saying in the trading market: the market crashes on headlines but prices are set by the substance!
2. In terms of operations, the bullish strategy updated yesterday and during the day remains valid. Don't be fooled by the surface data you see. Remember, core inflation is what matters. Although the current technical aspect is under some pressure, the resistance will be broken soon. This week, I firmly believe it will reach the top of the daily cycle box around 86500 again.In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $461 million, with short positions liquidated at $282 million and long positions at $178 million. The upper short positions have been mostly cleared, but there is still a liquidation gap around the 84500 area. ADA dropped 4% in a single day, with whales dumping over 110 million tokens, suppressing some altcoin sentiment. The arrest of an OpenAI engineer for hiding recording devices has limited impact on mainstream coins, so no need to overreact in the short term. BTC current price is 82894, with hourly moving averages in a bearish alignment, MACD momentum weakening, and the market showing weakness.
The phone vibrates in my pocket again, the order reminders are relentless, after delivering this order I still have to grab two more. Long position liquidations around 82500 are heavily stacked; the main force will likely first dip to clear leverage, then reverse to test short position liquidity at 84500. Operationally, do not chase shorts; buy long positions in batches on pullbacks between 82500 and 82100, with stop loss below 81700 and take profit between 84500 and 84800. If 81700 is broken with volume, the probability of a double spike increases, and you must exit unconditionally without holding positions.
$BTC
#Meta发布MuseWonder，股价涨超3%
@OKX星球 CPI exploded, all lines exceeded expectations. The rate cut matter can be put on hold for now.
September data, not a single number is reassuring:
Overall CPI annual rate 3.7%, expected 3.6%, highest since May, gasoline contributed more than half of the increase.
Core CPI annual rate 2.6%, expected 2.5%.
Core CPI monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%. Entertainment, used cars, air tickets, medical care, clothing, almost all are rising. This is not a one-time disturbance, but a widespread warming.
Market reaction is very direct: bets on rate hikes increase, expectations of three more hikes before the end of 2027 are heating up. Rate cuts? Don't expect them in the short term.
Not very friendly to the crypto circle. Originally, the bet was "oil prices push up overall, core remains moderate," now the core has also exploded, the story can't continue. US Treasury yields will most likely continue to rise, non-yielding assets continue to be pressured.
81500-80500 will most likely be tested tonight. The 84400-85200 resistance, now it's an iron lid.
ETH, SOL, ZEC, these high Beta ones, when they fall, they fall even harder. ETFs are already flowing out, macro adds another blow, making rebounds very difficult.
Don't rush to bottom-fish, nor chase shorts. Wait 15 to 30 minutes, see where the funds stand after the US stock market opens. The real direction will only be clear after 21:30.
Tonight, patience is more valuable than courage.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 【2026/10/14 East 8 Zone 20:54】Bitcoin crashed? Let me tell you the truth!
1. First, let's interpret the released CPI data: overall inflation exceeded expectations, so there was a drop after the data release. This was the first reaction of retail investors and automated trading programs, but this drop was driven by sentiment, with no substantial new negative factors, so it won't last long; once the market calms down, it will realize that the real factor deciding whether the Fed raises interest rates is core inflation, which is completely within expectations and not out of control. The market already thinks the probability of a rate hike in October is very low. As long as core inflation doesn't exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike won't rise. Those who shorted before will quickly close their positions and buy back when they see no new negative factors. Closing short positions is itself buying, which will pull the price back, even turning it positive and closing higher. There's a saying in the trading market: the market uses headlines to crash prices, but uses fundamentals to set prices!
2. In terms of operations, the bullish strategy updated yesterday and during the day is still valid. Don't be fooled by the surface data you see. Remember, core inflation is what needs attention. Although the current technical aspect is under some pressure, the resistance will be broken soon. This week, I firmly believe it will reach the top of the daily cycle box around 86500 again.$TRUTH bull power is weakening, bears dominate the market??
Brothers, from the truth market perspective, after the highest surge to 0.0213, it is obvious that the bulls lack momentum and start to stagnate at a high level, indicating there is still strong selling pressure above. Without new capital support, it is difficult to rise. From on-chain funds, there is also continuous outflow, so I have already positioned short orders around 0.0202, targeting 0.0182-0.0175, with a stop loss at 0.023.
【The above views are for personal reference only and do not constitute investment advice】
#美光暴跌后：是底部还是半山腰？ September CPI just released: overall year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), month-on-month 0.6%; core year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%), month-on-month 0.3%. Gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the monthly increase.
Hotter than expected. Overall pushed up by oil prices, core inflation did not cool down and was even higher than expected. This set of data hardly supports the logic of "immediate easing".
The market originally expected a 75%-80% probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October. Now with core inflation exceeding expectations, rate hike expectations may reheat. Officials had disagreements before; some think another hike is needed within the year. Tonight's data has amplified the divergence.
For BTC, in the short term, it will follow this trend. Core inflation is strong, rate hike expectations are heating up, BTC is under pressure, with support between 81500 and 82000 below. Only if the data is digested and yields fall will there be a chance to rebound and test 83000 to 84000. The direction is not yet chosen, so volatility will be relatively large.
$BTC
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Tonight decides life or death! CPI inflation data is about to be released, will Bitcoin crash again? Hurry and take a look.
1. Although the situation tonight looks a bit bleak because oil prices in September were extremely high, there is a very high probability that this CPI will be higher than the last one! However, there is actually a huge turning point here, have you noticed it?
2. That is, the market may have already priced in this situation in advance! Because the previous CPI was 3.4%, and now the market expectation has reached 3.6%, and both the coin price and stock price have already fallen in advance. So this time it is not necessarily bearish, because the CPI data must be greater than this high expectation of 3.6% to be bearish, not just higher than 3.4%.
3. If the CPI is 3.5%, although it is still an increase compared to the previous value, it is below expectations, so it will still be bullish. Therefore, there is still a turning point tonight. I think if the CPI meets or is below expectations, it will be beneficial for the coin price to rise, and this probability is not small.
4. Personally, I think around 80,000 is very likely the bottom of this correction, so you can confidently buy in. Even if it breaks below, it won’t be by much. I analyzed this 80,000 support two weeks ago on the show, first a rebound at 82,500, then another rebound at 80,500, and now it looks fine.
5. As for the big picture, I am very confident that the big bull market in the crypto world has really arrived! The current month of volatility is purely just digesting the previous profits from the rise, and after consolidation, it will continue to go up.Brothers, the CPI data has just been released, and it has exceeded expectations across the board. This is not good news.
Inflation hasn't retreated, and the rate hike sword is raised again.
September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and the previous value of 3.4%. Month-on-month is 0.6%, the largest increase in 5 months, with gasoline alone contributing more than half of the monthly increase.
The real killer is the core CPI.
Core year-on-year is 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%. Core month-on-month is 0.3%, unchanged from August, completely failing to cool down as the market expected 0.2%. The energy index soared 20.4% year-on-year, and gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month. Inflation not only hasn't retreated but is spreading from energy to core areas.
What does this mean?
Core month-on-month at 0.3% shows inflation stickiness is stubborn. The market's previous pricing of a “pause in rate hikes in October” now needs to be questioned again. CME data showed the probability of a rate hike in October was only 21%, but after this data release, rate hike bets will quickly revive. The US dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and funds will flee from risk assets. The opportunity cost of zero-yield assets is rising.
Polymarket prediction markets show the probability of a Fed rate hike in December has risen to 80%. This CPI data will push that number even higher.
The market is already waiting for direction.
BTC has fallen below 83,000, currently at 82,865. The key watershed is at 83,300. If it can't hold 83,300, supports at 82,500 and 80,000 will be tested in sequence. Only a volume-backed hold above 84,600 can provide a foundation for a rebound continuation. The first 15-minute candlestick high after the data release is key to confirming the trend; don't rush to act on the first pulse after the data is published. Wait for a pullback, wait for confirmation.
ETH is currently around 2,515, with higher volatility sensitivity and usually larger retracements in down phases than BTC. 2,460 is key support; breaking it targets 2,400 and 2,300. The ETH derivatives market has higher leverage density and more extreme concentration of long positions; once it breaks key liquidation zones, the liquidation intensity will be amplified by leverage multiples.
SOL is linked to the broader market; 105 is key support, break it to reduce positions. 115 is resistance; don't chase longs before a volume breakout.
Inflation doesn't die, rate hikes don't stop. On a night when CPI exceeds expectations, cash is worth more than faith.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CPI finalized at an annual rate of 3.7, higher than expected, which is bearish. After Bitcoin plunged to 839, it quickly rebounded to 826. The data still needs time to be digested. If this round of decline stabilizes above 822-820, then the market will see a full-scale bullish counterattack. The reason is simple: today's CPI is a major bearish data point; if it can't push prices down further, they will rise. No need to rush to buy yet; watch if 820 can hold. Of course, those who can't resist can lightly go long around 826 with a small stop loss.I can't speak for other fields, but when it comes to macro data and geopolitics, just listen to the old man—he's at an internationally leading level. You won't suffer losses or be deceived by following him. Maybe some institutions will cut you, maybe some projects will scam you, but the old man will never let you down.
Currently, the CME's probability of a rate hike in October hasn't changed yet, but after the 9:30 opening, the US stock market definitely won't show a good face. Tonight's CPI indeed exceeded expectations, especially the core monthly rate is also poor.
When the nest is destroyed, no egg remains intact. Don't be fooled by the seeming strength of Bitcoin, but as I said, if the US stock market continues to fall and liquidity keeps shrinking, selling assets to cover positions is inevitable. By then, it will be too late to run when the sand and stones fall.
As for why the decline is simple: AI, represented by storage in July, has peaked. The recent rise is just a last flicker of the fish tail. With the midterm elections in November, tensions between the US and Iran, and the holiday season bringing various negative factors, it's normal for big money to rush out early. This data basically confirms that the decline starting last week was smart money exiting early.
Once momentum forms, it can't be reversed in the short term. Whether it's a top or a bottom, you need to give enough time to wait for the pattern and signals before entering again. For now, just rest quietly. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC can't rise anymore, it's not institutions selling
The number 84800 keeps being mentioned.
It is a dividing line, not a target price.
How this number is calculated:
It is the upper boundary of the range; only if it stands above it can a reversal be talked about.
If it can't stand above, the price will keep moving back and forth within the original range.
The difference between past and present:
Institutions' long-term chips haven't moved; what's pressing the market is interest rate expectations.
So it doesn't fall deeply, nor rise happily.
$ETH follows a different logic.
It looks at funds, not chips.
Once 2580 breaks, the entire altcoin market cools down.
$ZEC's rise relies on short covering.
It's not a fundamental strengthening, but sentiment pushing it.
Three coins, three pricing models.
Waiting for a single number to unify the answer is futile.
Stop-loss orders placed above 84800 are going in the wrong direction.
#September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike disagreements to be resolved
#$BTC $ETHCPI results: Clearly hawkish, but not an out-of-control spike!
This data shows: Core month-on-month is actually 0.3%, which is higher than expected, indicating underlying inflation is more stubborn than anticipated.
This is not a "false heat" driven solely by oil prices.
Overall month-on-month at 0.6% meets expectations, suggesting the energy shock was largely priced in by the market; the real negative is the core monthly rate holding at 0.3% and the core annual rate rebounding to 2.6%. A core monthly rate of 0.3% annualized roughly equals 3.7%, clearly above the Fed's 2% target.
At the same time, real income fell by 0.5%, creating a mild stagflation mix of "rising prices and declining purchasing power," which is unfavorable for high-valuation assets.
Impact on the Federal Reserve:
Before the data release, the market mainly bet on the Fed pausing in October and resuming rate hikes in December, with about a 78% chance of no change in October and an 88% chance of a hike in December.
After the data release, October may still pause: a single month at 0.3% is insufficient to force immediate Fed action.
The probability of a December hike has further increased: the continuity of core inflation is the main basis.
Expectations for "higher rates maintained longer" have strengthened.
Discussions of rate cuts are basically postponed unless employment or consumption significantly deteriorate afterward.
Impact on U.S. stocks:
The Nasdaq and growth stocks are somewhat negative because core inflation exceeding expectations will raise real interest rates and valuation discount rates.
The market may experience:
1. Phase one: Nasdaq futures decline, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise. CPI Landing: Liquidity Has Only "Loosened a Bit," Don't Take It as a Bull Market Signal
CPI is the global high-risk asset's barometer, with a clear transmission path:
CPI → US Treasury yields → US dollar → risk appetite → crypto market.
This time, CPI moderately declined, but inflation remains resilient, resulting in a very neutral-to-warm outcome:
✅ No sharp rise beyond expectations → dispelled fears of "another rate hike," US Treasury yields slightly fell, temporarily loosening the tightest string pressing down on crypto;
❌ But also no sharp drop → rate cuts are not on the agenda, and no large-scale easing has arrived. It's only a marginal liquidity recovery, not a flood.
This explains the current market divergence:
- BTC: Benefits from panic relief, acting as the market's ballast, showing resilience but hard to sustain a continuous short squeeze;
- ETH: Weaker, only enough to passively follow gains, lacking strong easing expectations, unable to form an independent rally;
- ZEC and other highly elastic assets: are the biggest beneficiaries of marginal liquidity improvement. With slight risk appetite recovery, short-term speculative funds are willing to gamble on themes and elasticity, producing independent strength.
In short: CPI has removed the immediate crash curse but has not issued a bull market pass to the market.
It is still an oversold recovery rally. If inflation fluctuates again later, US Treasury rates may become volatile anytime, causing intense market swings.
You can trade with the trend but avoid heavy positions chasing highs, and continue to monitor US Treasury yields and subsequent inflation data.Don't rush to take sides; the liquidation chart is not an oracle. Are you also staring at the liquidation numbers in the top and bottom rows, feeling like you're waiting for an answer? Over the past 24 hours, leveraged positions have been reshuffled, and the liquidation zones for four cryptocurrencies are all lit up. BTC is at 83889, with about $29.23 million in short positions near 84705 waiting to be liquidated, and about $40.31 million in long positions lined up near 82188. The shorts are closer, but there are more longs; it's still too early to pick a side. ETH is hovering around 2544, with liquidation zones at 2568 and 2509 holding about $22.79 million each, very close to the current price, making it easy for short-term price spikes to sweep sentiment. SOL is at 111.54, with $5.22 million in shorts above at 113.37 and $3.26 million in longs below at 108.39; the upper side is a bit stronger. ZEC is at 1281, with only $760,000 in shorts above at 1306 and $920,000 in longs below at 1239, so the downside pressure is slightly greater. What concerns me more is not which side gets swept first, but the current psychological state of the crowd. Many say they are waiting for confirmation, but their fingers are already on the open position button. FOMO and hesitation coexist, and the narrative is a bit tired; at times like this, the price is most likely to first create a false direction to trap the impatient, then turn back to deal with those who are truly patient. The more bullish scenario is: BTC first pierces above 84700, triggering short stop losses; if it holds, short-term risk appetite will recover, ETH and SOL will likely bounce along, and altcoin sentiment will also ease. The bearish side... $FIL has summarized several points about the upcoming FIL halving and the market's lack of reaction. Everyone is welcome to add comments:
1. Linear halving reduces incremental supply, but there is a large stock of existing tokens.
2. Heavy lock-up, with significant selling pressure at key levels.
3. Miners and the foundation continue to release tokens, causing severe inflation.
4. Demand cannot keep up; most positive news is just empty promises.
5. Long-term decline severely damages retail investor confidence.
6. Lack of fresh capital to take over positions.Inflation rose to 3.7%, oil prices remain high, yet AI companies continue to aggressively build data centers. The Federal Reserve's game plan may not be so easy to win by just raising interest rates. Tonight, the US September CPI is released: Actual 3.7%, expected 3.6%, previous 3.4%. Inflation is heating up again, and the US 2-year Treasury yield immediately rose by 3.83 basis points to 4.831%. The most noteworthy point is that a significant part of this inflation comes from the supply side. Energy supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz, tariffs, semiconductor demand, and AI data center expansion could all push costs higher. Interest rates can suppress consumption but cannot directly increase oil supply, nor can they build more chip factories overnight. 🔮 Tonight's global capital and Web3 watch 🟠 BTC｜Defensive watch Focus on support around $83,000, and whether the dollar and US Treasury yields continue to strengthen in sync. If the price breaks support and open interest increases, prioritize assessing the risk of new short positions. 🟠 SOL｜Highly elastic asset Under increased macro pressure, SOL may experience greater volatility than BTC. Short-term focus on 4-hour trends, funding rates, and long liquidation distribution. Without confirmation of new buying, do not consider the rebound as a trend recovery for now. 🟠 LINK｜Infrastructure sector On-chain finance and AI agent narratives are still worth long-term tracking, but technological development does not immediately translate to token price increases. Observe volume, open interest, and relative strength compared to BTC. 🟠 RENDER｜AI computing power narrative Data center construction brings realAt 8:30 tonight, everyone's eyes will be fixed on the same number.
But before that number lands, the funding rates have already "spoken" in advance.
📊 Comparison of funding rate data from two major platforms
Platform A (cumulative funding rates):
▪ $BTC: 0.0039%
▪ $ETH: 0.0082%
▪ $SOL: 0.0163%
Platform B (current funding rates):
▪ $BTC: 0.0035% (slightly positive)
▪ $ETH: -0.0043% (rate turned negative)
▪ $SOL: 0.0033% (slightly positive)
Let's start with $BTC. Both platforms show a slight positive value, indicating that longs are still paying to hold positions in the perpetual contract market, but the strength is very weak. This is actually quite reasonable—$BTC has been oscillating around $83,000 for several days, with the $82,500 support repeatedly tested but not broken, and it has never managed to break above $84,000. Neither bulls nor bears dare to bet heavily, so the funding rate naturally remains in this "lukewarm" state. Simply put, $BTC is waiting for a signal.
$ETH is different. Platform B's current rate has turned negative, meaning shorts have started paying longs, and short demand is rising. But it's worth noting that Platform A's cumulative rate is still a positive 0.0082%, showing a directional divergence between the two platforms. This actually reflects a subtle market psychology: some are betting on $ETH catching up (after all, ETH's recent performance has lagged behind $BTC), while others are betting it will continue to weaken. $ETH's struggle around $2,500 is pressured by continuous net outflows from spot ETFs, and institutional interest in $ETH is clearly weaker than in $BTC. This divergence itself is a signal—$ETH's short-term directional sense is the weakest and most vulnerable to being caught off guard by CPI data.
$SOL's situation is even more interesting. The cumulative rate of 0.0163% indicates that bullish sentiment was once very high, but the current rate is only 0.0033%, a significant decline. To translate: those who were long before have started to pull back. $SOL has fallen from previous highs to around $107, and bulls lack the courage to add positions, choosing to wait and see.
Looking at these three coins together, the picture is very clear—$BTC's bulls and bears are balanced and waiting for data, $ETH's bulls and bears are in a tug of war, and $SOL's bulls are retreating.
Now for the bigger picture. The US September CPI will be released tonight, with market expectations for year-over-year growth rising from 3.4% to 3.7%, and core CPI expected between 2.4% and 2.5%. This is the most critical inflation data before the Fed's late October meeting. Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $679 million, Ethereum ETFs net outflows of $542 million, so the capital flow itself is weak. Meanwhile, the US dollar index is near an 18-month high, and the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.2%, putting overall pressure on risk assets.
Weak funding rates, ETF capital outflows, and high macro uncertainty—these three factors combined help you understand why $BTC's funding rate is only slightly positive. The market isn't unwilling to move; it's afraid to move.
Finally, a few practical words.
Funding rates are a thermometer of market sentiment, not a buy or sell signal. The negative turn in $ETH's rate is worth watching, but data from a single platform is insufficient to conclude a trend—the divergence between the two platforms precisely shows the market has not reached consensus. $SOL's high cumulative rate but real-time decline indicates the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is rapidly decreasing.
Volatility will definitely increase around the CPI release tonight. Funding rate data can help you judge which side market sentiment leans toward, but the real direction is still decided by that number itself.
Don't corner yourself before the data comes out. Waiting for the signal is more important than guessing the direction.
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $ETH $BTC $SOL #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Wangchai's main holder is hiding their true intentions because today's drop is definitely not caused by the top addresses selling off. So what exactly are they doing? Let's take a look at the data!
2026.10.14 #Wangchai Top 40 Token Holder Data Changes
New entries in top 40: 3 people total, 1 newly opened position, 1 transferred in, 1 normal increase
Exited top 40: 3 people total, all 3 reduced positions but did not fully exit
Increased positions in top 40: 1 person total
Reduced positions in top 40: 6 people total
$Wangchai Daily Key Summary:
Among the 3 new entries into the top 40, only 1 increased their position. The 3 who exited the top 40 all reduced their holdings but did not fully exit. The number of people increasing or decreasing positions in the top 40 is not particularly large. Although it looks like more people reduced positions, the actual amount reduced is very small. Earlier, we saw a significant drop in the token price, but after statistics, it turns out the top 40 addresses alone are not enough to cause a 30% price drop. Therefore, the drop must have been caused by addresses outside the top 40. Since the addresses causing the token price drop are not in the top 40, the market changes from the top 40 perspective are minimal, which also proves that the main holder is hiding their true intentions. Here, everyone can only wrestle with their own thoughts. That's about all the data. See you next time! Core 2.6% blew past expectations, tonight I'm betting on the bears to win 🔥
The results are out. Overall 3.7% met expectations, core 2.6% smashed through the 2.5% forecast, and the month-on-month 0.3% also exceeded 0.2%. In short: hawkish.
Before the release: BTC 83257, ETH 2499, everyone playing dead waiting for the results, positions down 3%.
After the release: US stock futures plunged immediately, 2-year yield surged to 4.91%, 10-year at 5.29%. BTC dropped to 82797, ETH stayed flat around 2500. Crypto is more resilient than stocks but not by much. Nasdaq futures down 0.6%, worse than BTC.
My battle plan:
First, the probability of a rate hike returning to the table on October 28 is 22%. Don’t underestimate this 22%, it was basically zero before the release. December hike is 88%, a done deal. If October really hikes, crypto will take another hit.
Second, BTC at 82797 is a critical level. 82730 is today’s low; if broken, look for 82000. The core data beating expectations is bearish and needs at least 24 hours to digest.
Third, ETH is playing dead at 2500, but ETFs have had outflows for 10 consecutive days, fundamentals weaker than BTC. The rebound will start with BTC, ETH will lag.
So tonight I’m betting on the bears winning. Short BTC at 82800-83000, stop loss at 83500, target 82000. Short ETH at 2510-2530, stop loss 2560, target 2450.
If you disagree, show your positions in the comments. Tomorrow at this time, we’ll see who’s right.Just released data: US September CPI year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6/3.7, previous 3.4), core CPI year-on-year 2.6% (previous 2.4). Overall pushed higher by energy, core CPI didn’t soften like the “surface” suggested, instead it rose a notch compared to the previous value. Translating the analysis on Bitcoin: The data is hawkish. The dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to surge first; Bitcoin, as a zero-yield risk asset, will most likely be sold off initially. Three short-term scenarios: - Instant spike down piercing 83,000 → shake out stop-loss orders; as long as it doesn’t close effectively below 82,900, it’s a “sell the fact” dip-buy, then a rebound to 83,800-84,200. - Direct rebound but fails to break the midline at 83,411 → weak, indicating funds are hesitant to buy, expect a second dip. - Core CPI stable, dollar surges then falls back → Bitcoin is most likely to form a V-shape recovery; if 83K holds, look for 84K and previous high 84,146. Plainly put: This data is not “bullish for Bitcoin,” but it’s not a devastating bearish catalyst either. The initial drop is emotional; as long as core CPI is controlled, there will be a rebound. 83K is the key level tonight, the midline is the strength/weakness boundary, and 84,146 is the bulls’ pride. Don’t chase shorts or longs at the moment of release; wait for the 15-minute candle close: Hold 83K → buy dips targeting 84K; break 82,900 and the dollar remains strong → exit, wait for 81K to reconsider. The 15-minute candle close will decide the trend. I’ll post again later with a detailed analysis of the long-short situation based on live market structure. Stay tuned if you’re watching. $BTC $ETH #SeptemberCPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence pending$BTC can't rise anymore, it's not institutions selling
The number 84800 is repeatedly mentioned.
It is a dividing line, not a target price.
How this number is calculated:
It is the upper boundary of the range; only if it stands above can we talk about a reversal.
If it can't stand above, the price will keep moving back and forth within the original range.
The difference between past and present:
Institutions' long-term chips haven't moved; what's pressing the market is interest rate expectations.
So it doesn't fall deeply, nor rise happily.
$ETH follows a different logic.
It looks at funds, not chips.
Once 2580 breaks, the entire altcoin market cools down.
$ZEC's rise relies on short covering.
It's not a fundamental improvement, but sentiment pushing it.
Three coins, three pricing models.
Waiting for a single number to unify the answer is futile.
Stop-loss orders placed above 84800 are going in the wrong direction.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
#$BTC $ETH CPI data has not yet been released, but $BTC has already dropped near 81,000, $ETH has simultaneously fallen over 4%, and $ZEC has even experienced double-digit declines — this is not an on-chain accident, but a typical case of macro expectations front-running. The market is voting with real money: it fears the data more than waiting for it. What is truly worth pondering is not the magnitude of the drop itself, but the timing of the decline. Before inflation data is published, funds usually do not exit on a large scale unless some traders have already bet in advance that CPI or PPI will exceed expectations. Once inflation readings are hotter than expected, the Fed tightening narrative will reclaim the headlines, and liquidity-sensitive crypto assets will naturally be the first to be hit. $BTC and $ETH, as high Beta risk assets, have historically been the first to be reduced when liquidity expectations shift, and this time is no exception. However, most people may have underestimated one signal: this round of selling occurred before the data release, not after. This means the market has already partially priced in the bad news. If CPI ultimately meets expectations or is slightly lower, short covering could trigger a rapid rebound; conversely, if the data is indeed hotter, the 81,000 and 2,400 levels will no longer be supports but amplifiers — breaking below them will sharply increase volatility. In other words, the current key is not about directional judgment, but whether these two price levels can hold. Structurally, if $BTC holds 81,000 and $ETH holds 2,400, it is more likely a position rotation and leverage cleansing rather than a trend reversal; if these levels fail, short-term volatility willWhat are retail investors doing while institutions are quietly accumulating? They are getting liquidated. This is the harshest cycle in this market.
Mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Creek Capital, recently shared a perspective worth every coin holder's attention.
He used the Metcalfe's Law to estimate the value of BTC: the long-term reasonable anchor point is $105,000.
What is Metcalfe's Law? In one sentence: the value of a network is proportional to the square of its number of users. Phones, the internet, and WeChat all follow this rule—the more users, the value grows exponentially, not linearly.
BTC is essentially a network: the more holding addresses and users it has, the higher its value should be. According to Yusko's model, the current "fair price" of BTC is around $105,000.
He also gave an assessment: the market has entered an "accumulation mode"—both highs and lows are gradually rising, and large funds are quietly building positions.$ZEC
Current price 1225.04, 24h +3.22%
Up three points, but I don't dare to catch this K-bar.
Looking at the last 48 hours split into three segments:
10-12 22:00 surged to 1297.7
10-13 08:00 dropped to 1122.58
A whole night down -13.5%
Now back to 1225.04,
this drop has recovered 58.5%—
Just looking at the numbers, the rebound is already more than halfway.
But the latest 1H candle has changed:
Opened at 1242, closed at 1225.04, a bearish candle
Volume 74.59 million U, previous candle only 16.82 million
Increased 4.4 times.
High volume bearish close, and closed 1.0% below MA20 (1237.57)
This is not a continuation, it's a rebound pressed down halfway.
The position is not cheap either:
Up to 1297.7 is 5.9%
Down to 1122.58 is 8.4%
Stuck in the upper middle, neither side is profitable.
I only keep one condition:
If 1H retraces to 1237.57 but fails to close above
→ Short, stop loss 1286, target 1122.58
R:R 2.4 : 1
Conversely, if 1H closes above 1237.57 and does not fall back
→ Cancel the short immediately, look at 1285.54 instead
Neither side has played out yet, so wait and see.
(Not investment advice, profit and loss at your own risk)September CPI released, basically this inflation data is above expectations, and core inflation also showed a mild rebound
This means the inflation issue in September is not simply a hawkish data caused by energy-driven inflation. The good news is that inflation has not completely spiraled out of control. Regarding the probability of rate hikes, it will not affect the chance of no rate hike in October but will increase the probability of a rate hike in December
According to CME, the probability of a rate hike in December rose from 70% before the data to 71%, not yet reaching 80%, but it has entered the preliminary pricing range
Combined with the continued rebound and rise in international energy prices, short-term inflation pressure increases, which is quite negative for risk markets, so attention should be paid to the pressure on risk markets
Next, let's interpret the detailed situation of this inflation data! #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Has anyone noticed this characteristic?
Usually, in the two minutes before important data is released,
the market generally moves in the opposite direction of the actual data expectations.
For example, tonight's Bitcoin or gold,
in the 2 minutes before the core CPI release,
both Bitcoin and gold show a small 5-minute bullish candle holding the top,
seeming to indicate a major breakout,
but once the real data is released,
it immediately reverses,
a long upper wick leaves the retail traders who chased the highs stranded at the peak.
There are many similar events like this,
any trader who trades based on event logic will notice this pattern.
It basically happens frequently.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 CPI Released: The worst-case scenario, all hawkish.
Overall CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6% and previous 3.4%; month-on-month 0.6% meets expectations. The overall high is driven by gasoline, which was priced in early—the real risk lies in the core: month-on-month 0.3%, above the expected 0.2%, year-on-year 2.6% also exceeds expectations.
This is exactly the threshold repeatedly warned about before. Bank of America said: core 0.2% means no change in October, 0.3% reignites rate hike bets. Now the decision has been made.
The market immediately voted no: S&P 500 futures erased gains, spot gold dropped 1% to $4119, silver fell 2%, traders instantly increased bets on October rate hikes—while before the release, the probability of no change was still 78.4%.
Crypto market is temporarily restrained: $BTC is at $83,292, 24h +0.21%, daily range 81,033–84,168, no breakout yet. But the background is weak—ETF net outflow last week was 681 million, 84,340 is the average cost line for 1.45 million coins, break-even sell orders are blocking the top.
Conclusion: Energy price increases have confirmed transmission to the core; the claim that "inflation is just an energy disturbance" no longer holds. This is not about the rate hike itself, but a repricing of the expectation that "more hikes are needed"—the 5% risk-free rate hangs there, zero-coupon assets suffer the most.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $ETH Core CPI surged to 0.3%, BTC, ETH, and ZEC all plunged sharply
At 8:30, the data was released, and BTC, ETH, and ZEC all plunged downward. Many people saw the month-over-month 0.6% and said it met expectations and that the bad news was fully priced in, but the market directly contradicted that; only this one figure met expectations.
Here are the four figures:
Overall CPI annual rate 3.7%, a 5-month high, expected 3.6%, exceeded
Core CPI annual rate 2.6%, a 6-month high, expected 2.5%, exceeded
Core CPI monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%, also exceeded
Only the overall month-over-month 0.6% met expectations
What the market really fears has never been the overall number driven by oil prices, but the core. The core 0.3% exactly hits the "reignited debate" — no chance of a rate cut in October, and the probability of a rate hike in December is still rising.
What’s worse is that bulls had already priced in the "bad news fully priced in" before the data: BTC was boosted by the Houthis, oil prices broke 106, and BTC touched 84000, with many people positioned for a rally. But the core data overheated, the logic was immediately disproved, long positions were trampled, buying on expectations and selling on facts combined with the core exceeding expectations, resulting in a double whammy.
$BTC
84000 didn’t hold, once the data dropped it plunged directly, 82200 is the critical point, breaking it will test 80900 and 80000.
$ETH
2500 was already weak, first target 2450, falling faster than BTC.
$ZEC
Rebounded against the trend to 1250 during the day, but after the data release the gains were wiped out, if 1200 doesn’t hold it will be a sharp drop after a rally.
The first plunge is not the bottom, don’t catch the falling knife 【On the eve of CPI, an ETH whale was liquidated for $69.69 million, then staged a comeback half an hour later】
What changed? In the past 24 hours, ETH long positions were liquidated for $10.45 million, and short positions for $10.13 million, almost symmetrical. But the real explosion was when a certain whale was liquidated for $69.69 million and then returned to the market to open longs again within half an hour.
Why is this noteworthy? This is not retail behavior; it’s a whale immediately overturning the market's "death sentence." This whale still holds 79,000 ETH longs worth $196 million, with new liquidation prices at $2299 and $2286. Shorts thought they had taken out a big player, but the whale added margin and came back with a new position.
Which observation does this support more? The short squeeze logic in the short term. ETH short liquidations account for 59.8%, and shorts are paying the price. But leverage risk remains concentrated; if the price falls below $2286, the next round of liquidations will be even more intense.
When the CPI data is released, will this whale’s $2299 liquidation line be triggered again? $ETH To analyze the Avalanche ecosystem market, you can continuously track BTC, AVAX, and JOE. BTC controls the overall market cycle rhythm, AVAX represents the capital inflow situation of the Avalanche public chain, and JOE, as the leading DEX within the ecosystem, is a barometer of on-chain liquidity and user activity. The sudden surge of a single token has limited reference value; only by combining all three can the true strength of the ecosystem market be discerned.[At the moment of CPI release, a $70 million whale's long position was "wiped out in one spike"]
What changed? At 20:30, when CPI was announced, BTC instantly spiked down to $76,046. A whale with a $70 million BTC long position was fully liquidated at a liquidation price of $76,308, suffering a loss of $1.6 million.
Why is this noteworthy? This was not a retail stop-loss but a targeted liquidation of a whale-level position. After the spike, BTC quickly rebounded, and the whale immediately reopened a long position at $77,875. Liquidated, but the direction remains unchanged.
Which observation does this support more? Among Binance's 8 largest BTC liquidation pools, 6 are above the current price, with the strength above being 7.7 times that below. The pressure above comes from shorts, not longs.
What to watch next? In the past 24 hours, BTC short liquidations totaled $11.72 million, surpassing long liquidations of $8.38 million. Shorts are being squeezed.
After the whale who was liquidated reopened a long, will the next spike target the shorts' stop-loss levels? $BTC $BTC is now $82,802, down 0.57% in 24 hours, $ETH is $2,487, down 0.51% in 24 hours. The CPI released tonight at 20:30: headline about 3.6%, below the market consensus of 3.7%, higher than August's 3.4%, month-on-month about +0.6%; core about 2.5%, in line with expectations. The data is dovish, the price is bearish, this divergence is what will be discussed tonight.
Let's clarify the data first to avoid misleading. The 3.6% figure comes from the live tracker snapshot at release; the full BLS table is yet to be verified; I haven't seen reliable sources for the actual month-on-month core value, so it's pending verification and not fabricated. But the direction is correct: the 1.1 percentage point gap between headline and core is almost entirely due to energy contribution, the widest in this cycle. To translate: inflation is supply-side, driven by oil prices, and rate hikes can't fix this. September is the first full month capturing Brent average prices of $102-106, with some lag in refining and transportation transmission; this data captures the result of transmission, not overheating demand.
So why does dovish data lead to a drop? Because bulls had already spent their bullets before the CPI. In the past 24 hours, $BTC tried to hit 84,000 three times, reaching a high of 84,074, and even touched 8 during the Asian session Last night’s session was really a rollercoaster. First, it plunged into panic, hitting 81,000 but didn’t break through; then it surged to 84,000 but couldn’t hold. Neither bulls nor bears won, continuing to grind inside the cage.
The news looks lively, but don’t mistake a “warming” for a “reversal.”
Sberbank got approval to conduct crypto trading, launching BTC, ETH, and USDT on December 1st, and the Russian central bank has also included it in the registration list. Back in 2022, they were calling for a total ban, but now the largest bank is testing the waters, so the direction has indeed turned. However, crypto payments are still banned within Russia, and retail investors have an annual purchase limit of only 300,000 rubles. This is more of a mid-term narrative, not short-term pump fuel.
On the Strive side, $208 million worth of warrants were exercised, and last week they bought another 3,311 BTC, bringing total holdings to 32,773 BTC. The trend of listed companies hoarding coins continues, but this is a bottom-building logic, not a short-term signal.
More interestingly, $STX has risen about 50% in four weeks, outperforming BTC and ETH. The logic is that the locked amount in the Bitcoin L2 ecosystem is increasing, with a new round of bonding coming in November, tightening supply and demand. But small-cap tokens rise fast and fall fast, so don’t rush in just because you’re envious.
Volatility may increase around tonight’s CPI release, so don’t stubbornly hold high-leverage positions. Who do you think will pick a direction first after this wave of fluctuations? Let’s discuss in the comments👇
⚠️Personal observation, not investment advice.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Official U.S. data shows that the September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.6% and up from the previous 3.4%. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-over-year, also above the expected 2.5% and the previous 2.4%. Both indicators exceeded expectations and increased from prior values, with overall inflation rising for three consecutive months, moving away from the previous low of 3.4%. Reviewing the historical sequence, the CPI year-over-year dropped from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June, then held steady at 3.4% for July and August, before rising again to 3.7% in September, breaking the previous downward trend. The renewed acceleration in core inflation is particularly noteworthy; price pressures excluding food and energy show that underlying inflation momentum has not faded with the overall decline but has instead re-accumulated over the past two months. The simultaneous above-expectation rise in both overall and core indicators suggests that the previous cooling of inflation relied more on volatile components like energy rather than a fundamental easing on the demand side, adding complexity to the judgment of future policy paths. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $BTC $ETH $SOL September CPI Release Analysis, Inflation Surprises with a Rebound
Data results:
Overall CPI annual rate announced at 3.7% (expected 3.6%); Core CPI monthly rate 0.3% (expected 0.2%), Core CPI annual rate 2.6% (expected 2.5%). All figures exceeded market expectations, indicating hawkish data.
Inflation did not continue to decline but instead rebounded, directly pushing the market to price in the Federal Reserve "holding off on further rate hikes this year." Previously, Bowman stated there was no rush to adjust rates, but this CPI data proves inflation remains sticky, and the duration of high interest rates will be extended.
On the macro side, US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and risk asset valuations came under pressure. Reflected in the crypto market:
BTC and ETH will face selling pressure in the short term, with market sentiment quickly turning cautious. The previous consolidation pattern is broken, bulls' confidence is shaken, and long positions in the futures market are prone to concentrated liquidations. Altcoins face even greater risk, with funds likely to withdraw first from smaller coins.
However, it is important to note that Bowman's tone is patient observation; a single month's CPI will not immediately determine a rate hike. The short-term impact is emotional, not an immediate trend reversal.
The market will likely first drop to release negative sentiment, then begin to test whether the monthly rebound can sustain. Going forward, focus will be on the persistence of US Treasury yields.【ETH one-minute spike to 2475, but the long-short ratio revealed its hand before CPI】
What changed? At 20:14, ETH instantly spiked down from 2520 to 2475.23, evaporating nearly $45 in one minute, then quickly rebounded to around 2486. Before the CPI release, the market had already started to move ahead.
Why is this worth noting? When this spike happened, the futures market exposed a key signal: the large traders' long-short ratio was only 0.92, with 73.5% of accounts being long, but large traders did not follow retail traders in being bullish. Retail traders are holding on, while large traders are waiting.
Which observation is more supported? The long leverage is not crowded. ETH funding rate is only 0.0031%, annualized 3.4%, showing no overheating. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidations totaled 140 million, with ETH long and short liquidations nearly symmetrical—10.45 million longs versus 10.13 million shorts. Both sides are paying the price for their judgments, with no absolute advantage for either.
What to watch next? Core CPI month-over-month at 0.2% or 0.3%. ETH spot ETFs just ended a 10-day outflow yesterday, with a net inflow of $24.84 million, but this amount is just a drop in the bucket compared to macro data.
Is the spike to 2475 a shakeout or a warning? The positions of large traders at the moment CPI is released will tell you the answer. $ETH Sixty percent of the stove burners are already smoking, yet not a single steak in the pan has been flipped — this is the most critical issue with the global pot of capital right now.
A 5.2% ten-year yield is just medium-high heat, the oil surface barely rippling. What really has the entire kitchen on edge is the phrase “5.9%” from the chef’s survey. Thirty-seven chefs said, once the heat hits 6%, I’ll take the steak off and switch to a bowl of clear treasury soup; but now, only nineteen have actually moved their plates. The rest stand by the stove, spatulas in hand, saying there’s no rush.
This survey itself is like a revision notice: it’s not that customers don’t want steak, it’s that steak quietly got more expensive this year, while the portion of broth keeps growing. The kitchen’s biggest fear has never been canceled orders, but customers sitting still — neither ordering nor paying — that’s the most costly period.
Most intriguing is BlackRock. For six whole years, this bowl of treasury broth was pushed to the far corner of the prep table, not even glanced at; now suddenly it’s pulled out, overweighting short bonds, leaving US stocks with just a neutral flavor. The master chef changes the recipe not out of conscience, but because the stove’s temperature has changed.
Short bonds are like quick stir-fry, in and out in ten seconds, crispy, refreshing, no fear of burning; long-duration treasuries are like slow-simmered old broth, fragrant indeed, but if the heat jumps up one notch, the whole pot scorches, even the clay pot has to be thrown away. And the main dish, stocks, fear not their own heat, but the underlying fire from the bond market pushing up from below.
As for the ratio: mainstream coins are the main dish, taking up most of the plate; altcoins are the seasoning, sprinkle a little for aroma, sprinkle a handful and it backfires; leveraged contracts are the extra spicy chili, two pieces add flavor, half a jar sends you to the ER. Right now, the bond market’s cold dish prices keep rising, effectively giving diners an option to “skip the main dish and still be full.” Once capital pays early and leaves, before the main dish is served, half the kitchen is already cold.
The on-chain $XCH is also part of this same pot. When the heat changes on the US stock side, the thickness of the broth flows along the pot’s edge, mixing flavors — cooks all know this: when the serving order is messed up, the cold appetizer isn’t cleared before the hot dish arrives, and the hot dish goes cold.
The real problem isn’t whether the 6% threshold can be crossed, but that some have already taken off their aprons before the threshold. The most dangerous moment in the kitchen is always when everyone’s watching the thermometer, but no one’s watching the pot.
The oil on the stove is already smoking blue; whoever goes in first will burn first. #bofastockbonddivide🔥 CPI will be released tonight at 8:30 PM, and the crypto market is about to experience major volatility!
The market expects the overall CPI to jump from 3.4% to 3.6%, mainly driven by a monthly gasoline price increase of over 7%; however, the core CPI is cooling down, with the month-on-month expectation dropping from 0.3% to 0.2%, and the year-on-year around 2.5%, indicating that price increases are still mostly concentrated in energy.
Williams and Collins have recently turned hawkish, both mentioning the possibility of another rate hike within the year, but neither specifically pointed to a mandatory move in October. The probability of a rate hike in October is now about 20%-23%, with the market more inclined to leave the suspense for December.
$BTC is currently around 83,000, just rebounding from just above 80,000. Before the data release, volume is likely to shrink and the market to fluctuate; the real direction depends on how US Treasury yields move after the data: if core CPI stays within 0.2%, yields ease, then Bitcoin has a chance to push toward 85,000; if core CPI exceeds expectations, the 82,000 support will have to hold again against a possible flash crash.
High-leverage positions are most vulnerable around the data release, so don’t hold your positions stubbornly 🚨. Are you reducing positions and watching tonight, or betting on the data? Discuss in the comments below 👇
⚠️ Personal observation, not investment advice.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解