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Brothers who cut losses this morning, are your thighs swollen from all the slapping?
I also took a mouthful of dirt this morning, didn’t even drink a drop of water, and the market makers immediately started pulling back. Bitcoin stubbornly turned red, $SOL climbed back from 101.58 to 106, AVAX bounced back to 10.3. When that big bearish candle slammed down, NEAR plummeted 7%—there’s actually a reason behind it: on October 1st, NEAR Intents had a $3.8 million security vulnerability, causing the coin price to drop over 10% within 24 hours. As for $ZEC, no need to say more, it fell so hard even its own mother wouldn’t recognize it. How many people looked at the chart trembling and couldn’t help but liquidate? Just after cutting losses, the market makers pulled back up, I’m way too familiar with this script.
But don’t rush to chase. This isn’t a reversal, it’s purely a "fakeout."
Look at the buying volume below, there’s basically no real volume, it’s all shorts covering forced to push the price up. On October 7th, the CPI data day, the exact same thing happened—within 1 hour after the data, shorts were lifted by $250 million, and about $470 million liquidated in 4 hours, with shorts accounting for $350 million. The moving averages overhead are pressing down hard, the main bullish players have long disappeared. Overall liquidity in October is tight, bank reserves dropped from 3.03 trillion to 2.96 trillion, and will only gradually recover by the end of the month. This month is basically a trash time with back-and-forth spikes.
The real watershed moment is tomorrow night at 8:30 PM. The US September CPI, the market consensus expects overall month-over-month 0.6%, core month-over-month 0.2%. But you need to pay attention, Wall Street has already laid out the narrative in advance, Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank are both pushing the idea that "rising oil prices haven’t caused broad inflation," basically giving the market a heads-up.
The key is where the core CPI lands: core 0.2%, the Fed is patient, risk assets can breathe; core 0.3%, the rate hike debate restarts; core 0.4%, direct repricing of rate hikes. Right now BTC is hovering around 82,500–83,000, and whether $SOL can hold the 102–103 support zone is also a signal.
In this market, more trading means more mistakes. I’m just watching closely, definitely not getting fooled. Wait for tomorrow’s CPI to land, then talk once the direction is clear.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #Microsoft releases new generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high
The leader has something to say
Microsoft has launched the new generation AI chip Maia 300. Its unit power inference efficiency is about 40% higher than leading GPU systems, and rack-level throughput is up to 7 times that of the previous generation. Plans for large-scale deployment in 2027. After the news, Microsoft's stock price rose 1.14% to $541.15, setting a historic closing high.
I believe this is another step for big companies developing their own chips. The goal is to reduce computing power costs and lessen dependence on Nvidia. In the long term, Nvidia's order expectations will be diverted, and the AI hardware landscape is changing.
But the impact on crypto is indirect. The stronger the AI giants, the more risk capital flows into tech stocks, drawing liquidity away from Bitcoin and altcoins. Microsoft's stock price hitting a new high indicates money is still in AI, not flowing into the crypto space.
I hold long Bitcoin positions at 83000 and short positions at 86500, hedging both sides with a light position. No one-sided bets before CPI data. Long stop loss at 81500, target 86000. Short stop loss at 87500, target 84500 to 85000. Whichever target is reached first, reduce that position first.
Microsoft's self-developed chip cannot change the macro pressure of the 30-year US Treasury at 5.7%. Bitcoin will still fluctuate in the short term. Do not chase highs or sell lows; set stop losses properly. $ETH
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $ETH $ZEC OKX will list 8 tokenized US stock spot assets this afternoon, with staggered openings starting at 3 PM and all trading conducted in USDT
Just saw the new schedule for OKX tokenized stock spot listings. This afternoon, 8 assets will be launched all at once, settled entirely in USDT. Starting from 3 PM with xLUNR and going until 6:30 PM with Sony's xSONY, one every half hour. They use Payward's xStocks framework, supporting deposits and withdrawals on Solana and X Layer networks, so there's no need to open a separate overseas US stock account; you can buy directly with the USDT you already hold.
I checked the product details, and the most practical feature is 24/7 trading. Even when US stock markets are closed at night or on weekends, trading continues. If there are sudden earnings reports or weekend news, trading can proceed based on the latest market prices without having to wait until Monday night. If the asset pays dividends, the issuer will automatically convert the dividend into additional holdings after withholding tax, so no manual claiming is needed. However, these tokenized stocks provide price exposure only and do not grant voting rights of the underlying shares.
Among these assets, I’m particularly interested in xSHOP at 5:30 PM and xSONY at 6:30 PM. I’ve reserved some USDT spot positions myself and plan to set up a spot grid order after the market opens to test order depth, aiming to capture small fluctuations during US market off-hours without holding large positions overnight.$BTC Bitcoin shows a bit of a golden needle bottoming today, with the 15-minute K-line pattern forming a V-shaped reversal. It clearly can't drop below around 81000, indicating it's not yet time to choose a direction. The short term will still mainly be a consolidation. However, I noticed that even during this consolidation, quite a few brothers are liquidating. $BTC offers options for up to 100x leverage, and it seems like everyone is eager to go all-in with 100x leverage, which is absolutely unwise. A single spike can cause liquidation, possibly even before stop-loss orders can trigger. Next, I think it will continue to oscillate between 80500 and 83600. During this period, I haven't taken any long positions on $BTC because the uncertainty before the CPI data release is too high and hard to grasp! A Bitcoin address dormant for many years emptied all 4,582 bitcoins this morning in one go, worth approximately 378 million USD at the current price.$BTC retraces to $83k, two paths before CPI.
Current market shows BTC at $83,027, down 0.77% in 24 hours.
This morning hit a low of $81,032.8, then quickly pulled back, currently trading above $82,400-$83,000.
ETH down 1.82%, SOL down 4.16%, softer than BTC, risk appetite still contracting.
Fee rate about +0.003%, near flat; OI briefly long about 2.5% during rebound hour then fell back, no obvious leverage crowding.
ETF net inflow latest day about $21.1 million (Oct 9), total net outflow from 5th to 9th about $679 million.
Wednesday's US CPI is the next gate, many positions reluctant to fully load before data.
Up: If it continues to oscillate above $82,400-$83,000, mostly grinding before CPI, contracts should not chase shorts yet.
Down: If the morning retrace is given back and $81,033 is tested again, prioritize reducing or lightening positions defensively, next observation closer to around $80,000.
Before data release, spot can be bought in small batches, contract positions should remain light, wait for market support first.$BTC surged with high volume! In 15 minutes, it jumped from around 82748 to 83550, a difference of about 802 points (0.96%). The volume of a single 5-minute candle is about 7.6 times the 6-hour median, current price around 83525.
4H chart still shows no clear trend, range approximately 81711–84348; don't mistake the sharp spike for a daily reversal. Resistance is seen at 84100 / 84348, support pullbacks at 83100 / 82400.ETH spiked to 2579 then plunged to test the bottom at 2409, with continuous outflow of main funds, short-term bearish $ETH $ETH $ETH
Current ETH price is 2,493.61, down -1.43% in 24 hours. On the 15-minute chart, it surged to 2,579.98 in the early session but faced massive selling pressure, quickly plunging to test the bottom at 2,409.11, followed by a weak rebound. The price has now climbed back near 2,493 but still trades below the dense resistance zone formed by MA5 (2,484.49), MA10 (2,489.65), and MA20 (2,494.04).
Conclusion: After a sharp short-term drop, a weak rebound occurred. Main funds continue to flow out net, with heavy selling pressure on the market. Be cautious of another dip to test support after the rebound.
Market Status
Price remains constrained by MA5/MA10/MA20 resistance, with a short-term bearish trend. The upper shadow at 2,579.98 is very long, indicating extremely heavy selling pressure. Performance is mixed: a 7-day decline of -7.53%, but a 90-day gain of +33.43%, indicating a long-term correction phase after a strong rally.
Capital Flow Warning: Net outflow of 36.91 ETH in 5 minutes (inflow 29.17 vs outflow 66.08). Among this, large orders outflow 30.98 ETH, far exceeding large orders inflow (6.86 ETH), indicating main players continue to sell after the plunge.
Market Cap: ETH total market cap is about 304.034 billion USD, with a 7-day decline of -7.13%. The long-term trend remains in an upward channel, but short-term correction pressure is significant. Order book shows buy and sell orders concentrated between 2,493.48-2,493.69, with relatively balanced buying and selling forces.
Trading Plan
Long: Avoid blindly bottom-fishing. Wait for a pullback near 2,409 (24-hour low), observe volume contraction and stabilization or capital inflow before considering going long. Set stop loss below 2,400. Target partial profit-taking near 2,494.
Short: Aggressive traders can try light short positions in the 2,494-2,580 range (moving average resistance zone) if signs of stagnation appear (such as long upper shadows, volume shrinkage). Set stop loss above 2,580. Target 2,409, and if broken, look for 2,380.
Main funds continue to flow out, rebound strength is weak, and another pullback to test the bottom may occur at any time. 10x leverage causes extreme volatility; control your risk, trade light and fast.
⚠️ Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; the above is personal trading thoughts and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？ #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 **PONS Pons platform token, a token launch platform on Robinhood Chain, is currently not suitable for blind accumulation due to high risk. It is more suitable for small positions for those with a high risk tolerance who can accept significant drawdowns, rather than heavy accumulation.** Below is an objective summary based on public data (as of around mid-October 2026). ### Fundamental Highlights - **Pons** is a non-custodial token launch platform on Robinhood Chain (an Arbitrum Orbit series L2 launched in July 2026), similar to pump.fun, allowing anyone to issue tokens quickly and at low cost and trade them. PONS is its platform token with a maximum supply of 1 billion tokens. About 30% of protocol fees go to the protocol, of which 80% is used to buy back and burn PONS, creating a deflationary flywheel. - Strong performance at peak: cumulative trading volume reached tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, accounting for more than half or even higher of the on-chain launchpad trading volume; daily protocol fees once approached or exceeded $6 million; cumulative burn of about 29%-31% of supply; early valuation (FDV/revenue multiple) was extremely low (about 0.7x), far below peers. - Uniswap Labs and others have purchased, V2 supports tokenized stocks (NVDA, AAPL, etc.) pairs, attempting to expand into RWA direction. ### Current Price and Trend Risks - From the July 2026 low of about Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the US will release the September CPI. I'll highlight a few key points so everyone has a clear idea. The market generally expects the overall CPI year-over-year to be around 3.6%-3.7%, with the core month-over-month at 0.2%-0.3%. Focus on the core CPI month-over-month figure; don’t get misled by the headline inflation — the rise in energy prices pushing up the overall number is obvious, but what the Fed really cares about is whether inflation has spread beyond energy and food. Simply put, there are three scenarios: Core MoM ≤ 0.2% and overall ≤ 3.5% — a sign of cooling inflation, rate hike expectations drop, which is somewhat positive for BTC; Core MoM 0.2%-0.3% and overall 3.6%-3.7% — roughly as expected, the data will play out normally, and volatility continues; Core MoM ≥ 0.4% and overall ≥ 3.9% — this is more troublesome, indicating inflation stickiness beyond expectations, and the probability of a December rate hike will be repriced, putting pressure on risk assets. Personally, I lean toward the second scenario, with the core MoM most likely between 0.2%-0.3%. As long as the core doesn’t accelerate, there’s no reason for a sudden hawkish turn. The real risk to guard against is the core MoM hitting above 0.4%, which would be a signal to reduce positions. Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM is the CPI release. Core MoM is expected at 0.2%-0.3%; if it stays in this range, no action. If it exceeds 0.4%, reduce positions first; if below 0.2%, hold steady. Don’t worry about the overall CPI — the oil price increase is obvious. In short: don’t be scared by the overall CPI tomorrow night, focus on the core. $BTC $ETH #SeptemberCPIReleaseImminent, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed Brothers, the liquidation danger zones for these 4 coins have already been clearly laid out on the table.
First, let's look at the big picture. Yesterday $BTC surged to 84254 but failed to hold, getting pushed back immediately, with an intraday pullback of over 2%. The reason is straightforward—Brent crude oil soared to $107, the US-Iran situation escalated, oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked, instantly igniting market risk aversion. Even worse, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5%. Once that goes up, all risk asset valuations have to be recalculated. Tomorrow CPI and PPI data will be released, so no one dares to heavily bet on direction now. Under this macro pressure, don’t just focus on liquidation charts; first understand which way the big environment is pushing.
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🔶 $BTC current price 82663
Above 84415, $49.12 million short liquidations. Below 81603, $34.26 million long liquidations.
But there’s a data point you need to notice—$195 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with 73% longs and only 27% shorts. What does this mean? The longs are being systematically harvested; it’s not retail cutting losses, it’s leverage collapsing.
There’s about $180 million sell orders near $BTC 84500 on exchanges. Although short liquidations are tempting, those shorts are the minority. More dangerous is the cluster of longs at 81600; if that breaks, the chain liquidation will be much fiercer than the short squeeze above. Yesterday $BTC’s low already touched 80393; history is repeating, don’t think 81600 is an iron bottom.
💡 Trading advice: Light short positions can be tried in the 82500-83000 range, stop loss above 83500, target first at 81800. Don’t chase longs; in this macro environment, longs are the weak side.
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🔶 $ETH current price 2474
Above 2497, $46.55 million. Below 2452, $40.53 million.
$ETH dropped over 5% in the past 24 hours, much worse than $BTC. Why? ETF net outflow was $542 million in one day, while on-chain a whale sold 410 BTC and turned around to buy 14,341 $ETH. Institutions are bottom fishing, but some funds are exiting. Two forces are fighting.
If $ETH breaks 2636, short liquidation intensity reaches $878 million; but if it falls below 2401, long liquidations are $553 million. The current price is closer to the lower liquidation zone; for those chasing longs, 2452 is your first critical gate.
💡 Trading advice: Light short positions at 2470-2480, stop loss above 2510, target 2420. If volume pushes price back above 2500, reverse to long, stop loss below 2450.
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🔶 $SOL current price 105.72
Above 107.35, $5.94 million. Below 101.88, $7.06 million.
$SOL long liquidations reached $66.3 million in the last 24 hours, shorts only $3.9 million. What does this mean? Longs are being crushed. On-chain Circle just minted 250 million USDC on Solana; liquidity exists but this money may not immediately buy coins. Funding rate signals are mixed—longs still paying on Binance and OKX, but negative rates on Bybit, shorts gaining the upper hand.
The liquidation density below 101.88 is greater than above; chasing longs is like running into the barrel of a gun.
💡 Trading advice: Light short positions near 105-106, stop loss above 108, target 102. If volume shows a strong bottom signal near 102, try longs with stop loss below 100.
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🔶 $ZEC current price 1190
Above 1212, $3.49 million. Below 1165, $3.83 million.
$ZEC fell from 1650 to 1190, a 28% pullback. But don’t rush to bottom fish; first see what happened. Grayscale $ZEC Trust rose 184% this year, AUM surpassed $1 billion. NU7 upgrade aims for mainnet launch on November 5, block time compressed from 75 to 25 seconds, quantum resistance advancing. The privacy narrative holds under the backdrop of increasingly intense AI surveillance.
But short term? $ZEC liquidations in the past 24 hours were $15.07 million, with shorts accounting for 59%. This means shorts are actively retreating but price still falls—indicating someone is selling. The liquidation wall at 1165 is thicker than above; don’t bet until direction emerges.
💡 Trading advice: Mainly wait and see. If volume pushes and holds above 1210, light longs with stop loss below 1180, target 1260. Don’t buy if it breaks below 1165; wait and watch near 1150.
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Finally, a few heartfelt words.
Liquidation heatmaps are not direction forecasts; they only tell you where the stampede might happen. What truly decides direction is the macro environment, capital flows, and what big players are doing. Currently, 30-year US Treasury yields breaking 5%, oil prices soaring, and upcoming CPI releases—these three variables are more important than any liquidation chart.
I’ve seen too many times when the direction was right but the position was gone first. Not losing today is more important than how much you make.
Wait for the price to show its move before acting; don’t rush.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Two years ago, a friend and I were chatting about this over dinner.
It sounded like listening to a foreign language to me.
Later, I tried with a few hundred yuan.
My first purchase was $BTC.
Right after buying, it dropped.
It dropped so much that I couldn't sleep well for days.
Then I tried $ETH.
The fees were shockingly high.
Each transaction made me cringe for a long time.
Later, I tried $SOL.
Transfers were fast and fees were low.
But some shady projects just disappeared.
Now I've learned my lesson.
I don't chase trends.
I don't follow hype.
I don't touch what I don't understand.
I carefully write down my private keys myself.
I don't give them to anyone who asks.
I don't click on unknown links.
No matter how tempting the airdrop is, I don't connect my wallet recklessly.
I only use money I can afford to lose.
I just hold on.
When it rises, I stay grounded.
When it falls, I don't panic.
There are many opportunities in this field,
but even more traps.
Surviving longer is more important than making a quick profit.
Don't borrow money.
Don't get carried away.
Don't believe in guaranteed profits.
Leave the rest to time#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 Why have $BAT and $NIGHT both risen for three consecutive days?
First, BAT's recent consecutive rise is a typical resonant market driven by "sector rotation + technical breakout + capital scramble," rather than a fundamental change in its underlying business.
Sector rotation: capital has shifted to it
The main theme in the crypto market this week is capital moving from Meme coins to DeFi, AI, and privacy technology projects with real business. BAT, as a representative of browser finance (BrowserFi), happened to catch the rhythm of the "DeFi sector rotation" and was selected by capital.
Technical aspect: breaking through the long-term downtrend line
BAT pierced through the downtrend line that had suppressed it for nearly a year with a single 33% large bullish candle, reaching a high of $0.1454. Such a volume breakout usually indicates a possible trend reversal, attracting many technical traders to follow.
Capital aspect: major funds entering to buy
Trading volume is key to judging "who is buying." During the rally, BAT's 24-hour trading volume once reached $85 million. A single-day volume of $130 million is no longer at the retail level, indicating that major funds are concentrating their purchases.
Ecosystem catalysts: product advancement and community activities
The Brave browser released WebMCP support (a new technology connecting browsers with AI) in early October and plans to introduce extension support for the Android version.
Therefore, this round of price increase is a capital-driven valuation correction rather than a fundamental improvement in protocol revenue or token economic model. 🔥 Barring any changes, $HBAR is retesting and continuing its uptrend... though if BTC crashes, it’ll drop right back to the lower support zone around $0.07 :)))
Starting a new round with HBAR for both Spot and Futures, depending on your risk appetite. I took profits on the last run, but the gains weren't huge...this time, I'm splitting the entry into two batches, one now and another around $0.07.
Just a reference view... come back and comment when it hits a 2x, or wait for updates... This morning I saw the market plunge into a sea of red, and I thought DOGE was doomed.
The first thing I did when I woke up today was check the market on my phone, and when I opened the screen, I almost threw my phone out. Oil prices surged to $106 a barrel, US Treasury yields soared, and Bitcoin directly dropped below $82,000, with the entire crypto market turning red.
My first reaction was that DOGE must have crashed badly. Sure enough, it dropped 7% in 24 hours, from 0.086 down to 0.0807. My finger froze on the screen, and my heart sank halfway.
But as I scrolled down, a set of data made me sit up straight. Small and medium holders holding between 100,000 and 1 million DOGE, along with large holders holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE, together added 130 million DOGE starting Thursday. On the other hand, those holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE reduced their holdings by 70 million.
Two groups of whales are fighting—one buying, one selling. But the net increase is still 60 million DOGE. When there's panic, some people are picking up bargains. I won't judge right or wrong here; I only know that those spending real money to buy are not doing it to sell immediately.
$DOGE is now hovering around 0.08, and I haven't moved yet. In the past hour, BTC has experienced a strong one-sided rally. Starting from the low of 80961 at 09:06, it consecutively broke through the 82000 and 83000 levels, reaching a high of 83332.7, and is currently oscillating near the high of 83290.
Technically, the 15-minute MA5, MA10, and MA20 are perfectly aligned in a bullish formation, providing strong support. However, the short-term surge has been too rapid, with the price clearly deviating from the moving averages, indicating a need for a technical correction. The funding rate is slightly positive (0.003%), the buy-side accounts for as much as 98% of the order book, and market sentiment is extremely exuberant, so caution is needed against a "pin bar" shakeout caused by crowded longs.
In terms of trading, do not blindly chase the price higher with 3x leverage. Watch for resistance at 83350 above, and support at 83000 and 82800 below. Be sure to strictly set take-profit and stop-loss levels to guard against the risk of sharp fluctuations at high levels. $BTC BLUR's biggest risk now is whether this project will create value in the future. The front-end shutdown means business contraction, and no new growth logic is apparent. Additionally, about 40.38 million BLUR tokens are expected to unlock on October 14, which is approximately 1.3% of the total supply.
Those looking to bottom-fish should still be cautious. $BTC dropped to around 81,000 in the morning and then pulled back to 83,000. The rebound was quick, but I tend to think there will still be repeated fluctuations from today until tomorrow night, and it won't be easy to firmly hold above 84,000 in one go. It was a bit disappointing that it just broke through yesterday and then fell back. OKX BTC/USDT spot surged to around 84,400 yesterday before retreating, hitting a low of about 81,000 this morning, then recorded two consecutive hourly gains, returning to around 82,900 in the morning. It's good that there are buyers when the price falls, but the price is still below yesterday's high. I temporarily guess that the rally after this sharp drop involves short-term buybacks; whether there is concentrated short covering still needs position and liquidation data to verify. Around 84,000 is the weekend high and the level repeatedly tested yesterday. If it can stand above again and hold on a pullback, I will turn bullish on this rally continuing; if it falls back to around 81,000 this morning and continues downward, then it should be judged as a continued correction. Now it’s back in the middle range, and I think it’s too early to say the drop is over just based on a quick rebound. Strategy disclosed yesterday that it bought 250 BTC last week, spending about $21.5 million. Continued buying of course helps demand, but these transactions happened between October 5 and 11, so they can’t be considered a sudden increase in buying today, nor do they explain why the price dropped and then pulled back this morning. The US September CPI will be announced at 8:30 PM tomorrow. If inflation is more stubborn than the market expects, concerns about interest rates not coming down may make BTC’s rebound more difficult; if inflation eases, it will relieve this pressure. Tomorrow night’s inflation data will affect the market’s judgment on subsequent interest rates.Semiconductor earnings explode, but why is the market not buying in?
TSMC and Samsung both exceed expectations, AI computing power dividends fully realized
TSMC's Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of over 50%, setting a record high for six consecutive quarters. Samsung Electronics' Q3 operating profit surpassed 100 trillion KRW for the first time, soaring nearly 8 times year-on-year, with AI memory demand becoming the core driver. The pull effect of AI on advanced processes and memory chips is indisputable.
But the market focus has shifted from "growth" to "quality"
ASML's Q3 earnings report is about to be released, with EUV orders and performance guidance becoming the key to stock price performance. More worrisome is that OpenAI disclosed to investors an annualized revenue of about $50 billion, nearly 30% less than the previously circulated market expectation of $70 billion, triggering collective doubts in the capital market about AI computing power investment returns and the next round of capital expenditures. Although Samsung's profits hit a record, its stock price still fell more than 3% after the earnings release, as the logic of benefits being realized upon shipment is playing out.
PIMCO warns that under extreme scenarios, the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%, with high oil prices, stubborn inflation, and debt expansion forming triple pressures.
The crypto market faces dual tests of trust and regulation
Ledger theft cases all originate from a single Southeast Asian distributor channel, exposing supply chain security weaknesses; the US plans to seize Iran-related crypto assets, signaling stricter regulation.
The market is at the intersection of a "earnings verification period" and a "macro sensitivity period." The AI narrative remains strong, but valuations require firmer earnings data to support them. ETH surges to 2500: 88% are long, yet the funding rate is negative
An intriguing contradiction: ETH is currently at 2504, approaching the 2500 round number, with a long-to-short ratio of 88%:12%—almost everyone is long. However, the funding rate has dropped to -0.00166%, with shorts paying longs to hold positions.
What has changed? The price rebounded from a low of 2407 to 2504, rising nearly 4%, but the funding rate fell instead of rising. Meanwhile, a certain whale/institution has cumulatively sold 837.8 BTC and rotated into buying 27,500 ETH, worth about $69.68 million, with an average ETH purchase price of $2534, close to the current price level.
Why is this noteworthy? Although 88% of accounts are long, longs only account for 35.2% of active trades, indicating that new buying momentum is waning. The negative funding rate further reveals the shorts’ determination to enter actively—these shorts are not passive followers but are making proactive bets.
Which observation is more supported? The current structure resembles a crowded short position combined with waning long momentum. The 2450 to 2470 range is a short-term long defense zone, while 2500 to 2550 is a resistance band repeatedly generating selling pressure.
Next focus: October 14 CPI, with expected overall inflation rising from 3.4% to 3.7%. Between the 88% long positions and the actively entering shorts, who will concede first before the data? $ETH BTC surges to 83,000: 98% are long, but some are reallocating positions
An intriguing signal: BTC is currently at 83,291.8, up 0.73%, yet the long-short account ratio is as high as 98%:2%—almost everyone is bullish. However, in the past hour, about $140 million worth of long positions were liquidated across the network, accounting for 97.5% of total liquidations.
What changed? The price pulled back from the low of 80,961 to above 83,000, but on-chain there was a simultaneous position adjustment: one institution sold a total of 837.8 BTC and reallocated to buy 27,500 ETH, worth approximately $69.68 million; another ancient whale, silent for years, transferred out all 4,582 BTC, valued at $378 million.
Why is this noteworthy? While 98% of the contract market is chasing longs, old on-chain holders are reallocating in the opposite direction. The funding rate is slightly positive at 0.00306%, indicating rising long position costs.
Which observation is more supported? In the short term, it looks more like a short squeeze rather than a trend reversal. Above 83,400 is a dense liquidation zone for shorts, but the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.24% continues to suppress risk appetite.
What to watch next: the October 14 CPI, with expected overall inflation rising from 3.4% to 3.7%. With 98% of positions long, will they dare to hold through this data? $BTC After a round trip, Bitcoin has returned to the price it was at in the early morning!
Altcoins, however, have plummeted!
What does this indicate? Honestly, just stick to dollar-cost averaging BTC, and stop messing around with those others—there's PONS, MARS COIN, and STONK, all of which have basically retraced 70% from their highs.
I've seen many brothers stuck in losses; some even tried to bottom-fish PONS on the left side. Avoid left-side buying with random altcoins; just do right-side trading. Only BTC is suitable for left-side buying.
Ordinary people should just honestly dollar-cost average BTC and stop dreaming of getting rich overnight. That's basically impossible now; it's too difficult.Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$W top accounts are more bullish, positions still biased bearish. The proportion of bullish accounts increased by 1.91 percentage points, the proportion of long positions increased by 0.23 percentage points, still at 45.4%.
$XRP top accounts are more bullish, positions still biased bearish. The proportion of bullish accounts increased by 1.77 percentage points, the proportion of long positions decreased by 0.08 percentage points, still at 46.5%.Yesterday, I mentioned that above 84300 is a danger zone, and long positions could be exited. After the price reached that level, it dropped directly by 3000 dollars ✅
This morning, the price tested the previously given 4-hour support range (81100-79600) for the second time. Here, we can still expect one more rebound. The resistance remains at the key level of 84300, and only a breakthrough at this level will lead to more follow-up moves Good afternoon, brothers, I am Bai Qing, determined to become a genius teenager in the crypto world!
Currently on day 48 of compounding starting with 500U, total assets around 2800 (peak 3100).
The $ETH long-short position was opened the day before yesterday; the long position took profit yesterday afternoon. When closing the long, I added a short position three times the size. After adding, the price went up. I set the stop-loss at 2580, but it hit 2576, which scared me. Fortunately, the result was good. This trade basically recovered more than half of the losses. During the decline, I took partial profit early due to caution. Now I still hold one-seventh of the position, with a break-even stop-loss set, so it doesn't matter anymore.
Recently, I learned a strategy from a genius and plan to study it further while continuing to recover.
Keep it up, brothers, slow is fast. This kind of big wave trading should be used sparingly as it affects the mindset too much. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
Tomorrow night at 8:30, the CPI will be released, and this is the major event that will determine the short-term direction.
Institutions currently expect that with energy prices rising, the overall CPI may increase from 3.4% to 3.7%, and the core CPI month-on-month may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. But note, yesterday Cleveland Fed President Harker came out hawkish again, saying inflation pressures are quite broad and supporting further rate hikes. However, the market is not buying it at all; CME data shows a 79.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October. Officials are hawkish, the market is dovish, and the two sides are clashing. The greater this divergence, the more volatile the market will be at the moment the data is released.
What’s the impact?
If the CPI blows past expectations, overall hitting above 3.9%, and core month-on-month also above 0.4%, then rate hike expectations will immediately heat up, the dollar and US bonds will surge, and Bitcoin will take a short-term hit. If the data is close to expectations, around 3.7%, with core between 0.2 and 0.3, then the market will continue to fluctuate, grinding you down. If the data is below expectations, the logic for pausing rate hikes will be confirmed, Bitcoin may have a chance to bounce, but don’t expect it to skyrocket, as resistance remains above.
$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Cleveland Fed President Harker, a voting member of this year's FOMC, recently signaled a hawkish stance, believing inflation remains sticky and current rate tightening is insufficient. He advocates for further rate hikes if necessary, preferring small, gradual tightening to avoid being forced into large hikes later. However, he did not specify the timing of the next rate hike. The market consensus still expects rates to remain unchanged in October, with rate hike expectations mainly focused on December.
With the September CPI data about to be released, this data is the core test to verify whether inflation continues to cool down and will directly adjust rate hike expectations. If CPI exceeds expectations, Harker's hawkish view will be reinforced, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to strengthen, putting pressure on risk assets like BTC, ETH; if CPI is below expectations, it will weaken the probability of further rate hikes, benefiting a short-term rebound in risk assets.
In simple terms, officials' statements guide expectations, but the real decision depends on inflation data. Before the CPI release, funds tend to be cautious, and the market is prone to volatile fluctuations, representing a typical pre-data game window. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Last year, a friend pulled me into a group chat
Every day someone was showing off their trades
I watched so much that I got itchy hands
Put in a few hundred bucks
My first buy was $BTC
After buying, it just slowly dropped
It dropped so much I lost my appetite
Later I heard you could mess around on $ETH
So I transferred some money to try
The fees were so high I kept cursing
One operation wasted half a day
Then I saw people hyping $SOL fast
I rushed to the chain to randomly click around
It was really fast
But the traps were real too
Some projects disappeared just like that
I slowly learned to be wiser
Don’t chase hot trends
Don’t follow trade calls
Don’t touch what you don’t understand
Write down your private keys yourself
Don’t give them to anyone who asks
Don’t click on strange links
No matter how tempting the airdrop is, don’t connect your wallet recklessly
Now I only hold money I won’t mind losing
Just leave it there
Don’t get cocky when it rises
Don’t panic when it falls
This industry has many opportunities
But even more traps
Living long is more important than making a quick profit
Don’t borrow money
Don’t get addicted
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits
Leave the rest to time#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 No vision, can't hold on, the profit from this short position is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. Just after lunch when I checked the market, $MINA's rebound was weak, selling pressure was heavy, so I casually warned: don't go long, there's still room for shorts. 😋
From 0.08572 to 0.07691, +206.25% really feels great, can treat myself to a good meal. This kind of tailwind ride doesn't come every day; what you can take away is truly yours.
The money earned is the realization of your understanding; the money lost is the flaw in your understanding.
First, close 80% of the position, pocket the bulk, and keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection. Let the profits run if it continues to drop, and don't give back profits if it rebounds.
Even if you only make one point, as long as you can take it away, it's yours; any floating profit beyond that belongs to the market.
There will be more opportunities later; the market is not short of opportunities, but patience is lacking. Don't chase shorts now; wait for the next signal before moving.
$SNDK $BNB 💥 Bitcoin Flushed to $81K, Then Ripped Back to $83K in Two Hours
Reportedly $360M in positions liquidated in four hours, longs on the way down, shorts on the way up. Buyers stepped in near $81K, well above the $80.3K line we flagged.
But price only tagged $83K and slipped back under, into the overnight supply, on fading volume.
Close above $83.1K and $83.4K to $84.3K is next. Fail, and $82.3K to $82.5K is support.
Real reclaim, or relief rally?
Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Market Notes: The longer the sideways consolidation, the more you need to watch key levels closely
Today the market fluctuated back and forth with little volatility, but sentiment shifted from panic to cautious observation, even slightly bullish. Interest rate hike expectations are still tugging, ETF funds are flowing in and out, but mainstream coin liquidity is more solid than before, and the overall structure has not deteriorated yet.
$BTC is around 82,500, with 80,500 as the short-term critical level; only if it breaks below should we look at 76,500. As long as 80,500 holds, the base position does not need to be disturbed; don’t get shaken out by volatility. $ETH is around 2,480, with 2,450 support still intact, but its trend is weaker than BTC; observe before it breaks, and consider adding only after it stands back above 2,500. $ZEC is around 1,180, with 1,150 as key support. This round looks more like deleveraging; fundamentals haven’t changed, upgrades and ETF expectations remain, so long-term investors can accumulate in batches; a pullback isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Sideways consolidation doesn’t mean no direction, but rather building up direction. Before signals emerge, hold the base position firmly and don’t panic if key levels aren’t broken; once volume picks and direction is chosen, act accordingly. Wednesday might bring clarity. What’s your take?
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 BTC Price Action on October 13
On October 12, BTC attempted a downward breakout, rebounded upward after touching EMA20, forming a double top structure. The second attempt to break down resulted in a strong bearish candle closing below EMA20, meeting the shorting conditions to open a short position. Subsequently, several consecutive bearish candles pushed the price down, with a few bullish candles appearing. After a bearish candle appears here, there is an 80% probability of reaching the Measured Move up. When this level is reached, some shorts take profit causing a price rebound near EMA20.
Future forecast: Currently, the bears dominate the major trend, and the price will oscillate near EMA20. If a bearish candle appears and closes below EMA20, it is advisable to consider shorting following the trend.$ETH 2490 still dares to go long, get ready to be buried for the second time!!!
This surge is driven by short squeeze liquidations, not real spot buying. There is a thick trapped position between 2550 and 2600; it will be smashed after the rally.
Don't chase longs at 2490. Short directly if the rebound stalls between 2530 and 2560, stop loss at 2590, targets at 2460 and 2410. Don't hold if it breaks below 2445, as it can trigger chain liquidations and accelerate the drop. If you want to bet on longs, wait for volume contraction and a bottom near 2400, enter light and exit quickly, stop loss 40 points.
Volatility will be high before CPI, keep position size small, and set take profit and stop loss orders in advance.Day 5 of the 28u challenge to 10,000u
What happened after waking up?!?
ETH dropped to 2407 then immediately rebounded
Yesterday's short position exited too early, also missed selling at a better price
At the same time, the situation of the Korean stock market these two days is not optimistic at all
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) once fell more than 6%, dropping below 6000 points.
Semiconductor heavyweight stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged significantly.
The market is worried about intensified competition in the AI industry and the semiconductor sector's previous excessive gains.
After the stock market's sharp drop, three possible trends may occur:
Continued decline: Semiconductor heavyweight stocks continue to weaken, short positions may benefit.
Oversold rebound: Shorts concentrate on taking profits, short positions may face a short squeeze.
Stocks and crypto both fall: The market deleverages overall, crypto assets come under pressure, #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 $BTC $ETH $ETH Why has the crude oil short position funding fee been so expensive recently? I made a 20u profit but the funding fee ate up 12u, and I only held the position for just over ten hours with a 40u position size I just checked the data. Developed countries all support holding and trading BTC. About 100+ countries allow holding it. Seeing Erbao analyze based on the historical gold standard, 🇨🇳 as a former silver standard country, ended up with the US and Japan leading the world to play the gold standard, and the world only recognizes the little yellow fish. 🇨🇳, once the largest silver reserve country, saw all its silver holdings suddenly devalued. This story is playing out again. 🥲Since Friday, I've been trading $MAGIC and $STRK.
I've taken a few bites repeatedly, so let me share my insights.
First, Magic: this round of price increase is purely low-leverage speculation, with fast in-and-out trading by hot money, combined with the weekend market. The funds have pushed the market cap to more than 7 times. There is no support level at all. So I only short at the high points, not buy at the lows.
I dozed off during hesitation, which almost caused me to be liquidated, so although I'm currently profitable, it's not much.
Second, STRK: unlike Magic, this round of price increase is driven by sentiment. Simply put, it's due to the spin-off from ETH to independently develop in the quantum cryptography field. This narrative alone, though just one sentence, is enough to ignite public sentiment. I don't short such sentiment-driven rallies; I go long at the lows and take profits into spot. It's like waiting patiently for an opportunity. If one sentence can ignite interest, the potential explosion after solid confirmation is unimaginable.
Dear viewers, please make your own decisions; this is not investment advice. $BTC bulls are many, but that doesn't mean there are many buy orders
$1.88 billion bet on a rise, $872 million bet on a fall.
The side betting on a rise is still showing a paper profit of 8.74 million.
How is this number calculated:
The long-short ratio is 2 to 1, which looks one-sided.
But in the past 30 minutes, $17.86 million was sold, $14.03 million was bought.
There are many orders placed, but the direction of actual trades is another matter.
Who is placing orders here:
The 8.74 million profit for the bulls is unrealized gains from positions not yet sold.
To turn unrealized gains into cash, someone has to take the other side.
Currently, there are fewer takers than sellers.
More money is betting on a rise, but fewer orders are pushing the price up.
When these two things happen simultaneously, the price moves downward.
Stop-loss orders placed in the lower range have already been swept away.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#Strategy增持放缓，企业财库策略生变？ #贝森特拟查扣10亿美元伊朗相关加密资产 $BTC Did I also bottom-fish ETH? Did you guys buy in?
This time I'm going all in with 6x leverage. That's beyond my previous record.
Before, the highest was 3.9x full position leverage?
I hope after this CPI release, my account will have a chance to multiply 10 times.
Bought part of ETH at 2488 first; if the 15-minute candlestick shows a pullback, then I'll buy the other half of ETH $ETH $BTC 24-hour ETH rebound lacks volume, with many upper shadows, is this all the bulls have?
BTC, short.
4-hour resistance can't be broken, all rebounds are shorting opportunities; false breakouts, even more short. Once the daily line breaks, don't hesitate, the weekly midline at 2168 will be seen.
The only mistake to admit: a volume breakout of the 4-hour resistance and holding steady. Otherwise, the bears have control #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 $SOL rises and falls; today's sharp drop is the result of combined macro pressure, geopolitical conflicts, and the market's internal high-leverage structure, not caused by a single event.
Macro level: High interest rates and a strong dollar withdraw funds
The core pressure comes from the surge in U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.3%, and the 30-year hit 5.70%, the highest since 2002.
This means risk-free returns are very attractive, so funds naturally withdraw from high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and shift to Treasuries that offer stable interest.
Geopolitical conflict: Rising oil prices reignite inflation concerns
The escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions is the direct trigger. Energy price increases directly push up market inflation expectations, reinforcing worries that the Federal Reserve may have to continue raising rates, delivering a double blow to the crypto market.
The crypto market's own structure amplifies the decline:
· High-leverage cascading liquidations: About $774 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with 89% being long positions.
· Institutional fund outflows: U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $484.9 million, the largest since June.
Currently, market focus shifts to the U.S. CPI data released on October 15, which may directly determine the short-term direction of risk assets. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Where is Bitcoin headed next? Check the liquidation map, Day 2
Compared to yesterday: Price 84,142 → 82,784 (-1.6%)
Yesterday I said $BTC would go up, but I was wrong. Cumulative record: 0 right, 1 wrong.
1. Today's data
Below, the cumulative long liquidation intensity is $1.1 billion; above, the cumulative short liquidation intensity is $2 billion.
2. Key price levels to watch
82,000: Lower edge of the dense long position area; breaking below here will accelerate the first wave of forced liquidations
79,000: The densest segment of long positions; the buffer starts to thin from here
84,500: The first cluster of short positions; one of the highest bars on the entire chart
85,000: The second cluster of short positions; breaking through here will cause the most intense squeeze
3. Possible price movements
Upward: Standing above 83,332 starts squeezing short positions; covering shorts itself is buying → 84,449 → 85,013 → 86,141 with almost no shorts above, resistance is very thin
Downward: Breaking below 82,000 → 79,467, the densest long position area → once a chain of forced liquidations opens, the buffer is very thin.
4. My judgment
Currently, the cumulative short liquidation intensity reaches $2 billion, while longs are only $1 billion. Data-wise, it’s easier to move toward the direction with the least resistance. I think it will rise to $90,000, but current data doesn’t allow it yet; it will still oscillate between 81,000 and 85,000 without a clear trend.
What’s your take?PONS 7-day -31.4% still searching for a bottom
At noon after lunch, I checked the top decliners and immediately spotted the names that dropped the most at the front. $PONS dropped -19.5% in the past 24h, currently at 0.279 USDT.
Its 24h low touched 0.2735 USDT, and the high reached 0.3597 USDT. After falling from the high, the current price is just a step away from the lowest point.
Looking at a longer term, PONS is down -31.4% over 7 days, indicating this decline has lasted several days. The contract funding rate is still +0.0050%, meaning longs are still paying shorts.
On external news, South Korea is pushing to block multiple crypto sites including KuCoin and MEXC. Looking at related coins horizontally, $ETH is down -2.3% in 24h, $SOL -4.8%, but none fell as deeply as it did.
Told the team, seeing the 7-day continuous drop and the funding rate not yet negative, the team moved PONS to the last row today, not planning to touch it for now, waiting for it to stabilize someday. Event: The Realized Cap HODL Waves index from Glassnode reveals that the amount of Bitcoin that has not moved for over 1 year now accounts for nearly 67% of the total circulating supply, approaching record levels previously seen before parabolic growth cycles. Detailed Analysis Notes: Steadfast holding sentiment (Diamond Hands): Despite the price having undergone severe leveraged liquidations from the peak down to 80,000 USD, the long-term investor group (Long-Term Holders) remains resolute in not selling off. They view the declines as an opportunity to accumulate more $BTC is consolidating around 82,834, down 0.99% in 24h with a 4.1% amplitude, not panicking along with gold and silver. I lean towards a bullish oscillation, expecting it to continue moving between 80,985 and 84,340.2. Funding rates for the last three periods are 0.0019%, 0.0019%, and 0.0067%, still positive and rising, bulls are not scared off. DVOL is 37.1, options have not priced in cross-asset risk. Liquidations: long positions $61.91 million vs. short positions $24.18 million, bulls have been partially washed out, but contract open interest remains at $7.7 billion. Options trading put/call ratio is 1.48, but open interest put/call ratio is only 0.93. Some short-term protection buying is happening, but existing positions have not shifted to bearish; I interpret this as hedging. Total stablecoin supply is $313 billion, so there is no shortage of liquidity on exchanges. If selling pressure from the stock market really transmits here, we would first see funding rates turn negative and DVOL rise, but neither has happened yet. Conditions for a bearish reversal: break below 80,985 with funding rates turning negative, otherwise that judgment is invalid. Holding above 84,340.2 confirms bullish bias. Two years ago, colleagues were chatting about this over dinner.
It sounded like a foreign language to me.
Later, I tried with a few hundred yuan as a test.
The first purchase was $BTC.
After buying, it dropped.
It dropped so much that I couldn't sleep well for days.
Then I tried $ETH.
The fees were shockingly high.
Each transaction made me feel heartbroken for a long time.
Later, I tried $SOL.
Transfers were fast and fees were low.
But some shady projects just disappear.
Now I've learned my lesson.
I don't chase hot trends.
I don't follow trading signals.
I don't touch what I don't understand.
I write down my private keys myself.
I don't give them to anyone who asks.
I don't click on unknown links.
No matter how tempting the airdrop is, I don't connect my wallet recklessly.
I only use money I can afford to lose.
I just hold on.
I don't get arrogant when it rises.
I don't panic when it falls.
There are many opportunities in this field,
but even more traps.
Living long is more important than making a quick profit.
Don't borrow money.
Don't get carried away.
Don't believe in guaranteed profits.
Leave the rest to time.#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
#Microsoft releases next-generation AI chip, stock price hits annual high
#SanDisk and Micron fall, Changxin's technical progress draws attention $SNDK South Korea has triggered circuit breakers again and again, SanDisk has dropped to 1427, it's outrageous. The storage sector correction and OpenAI's ghost stories are really not to be underestimated!
Let's see if there will be an oversold rebound around the 1400 level.
Short-term resistance is first seen near 1500; if it can break through and hold, then watch 1620-50.Brothers, don’t rush to take yesterday’s rebound as a reversal! The bearish outlook on $BTC and $ETH that I’ve repeatedly discussed before is still valid; even the short positions of the big ten bosses haven’t been closed yet.
From a macro perspective, the US dollar is strengthening, inflation and interest rate pressures remain, and ETF funds continue to flow out. Technically, the bull flag pattern on $ETH has already broken down, challenging the bullish logic. However, whether the rebound is a bull trap or a true reversal still depends on subsequent price action.
📉 Key levels:
$BTC: Around $81,000 is an important support.
$ETH: Around $2,430 is a critical defense level.
Next, pay close attention to the CPI data and market reaction. If support holds, a rebound may come; if it breaks down effectively, the trend needs to be reassessed. Current judgments do not guarantee the market will develop as expected.
Many people lose money not because they don’t understand the market, but because they lose to their emotions. They get greedy when prices rise and hesitate to take profits; they panic when prices fall and rush to cut losses. The real gap is not information asymmetry but emotional management.
Manage your emotions well to manage your assets well. Even when bearish, be prepared for rebounds; when bullish, don’t blindly chase highs. Control your position size and set stop losses—don’t let greed and fear disrupt your trading plan.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Don't rush to bottom-fish! This round of pullback is most likely just a cleanup of high-level chips
Many friends have recently fallen into a vicious cycle: panic selling when the market drops, and rushing to buy the dip when it barely falls, completely going against the market rhythm.
At this stage, it is not a one-sided sell-off market, but more of a high-level consolidation. The market is completing a round of chip redistribution, and impulsive trading is easily punished repeatedly.
$DOGE Dogecoin｜Current price 0.08248
Resistance 0.092, Support 0.078
After a surge, it enters a volatile pullback, with market sentiment for Meme coins fluctuating back and forth.
Currently in a high-level correction and recovery phase; the price must hold the support level for a rebound to initiate; if the support fails, it will further explore downward space.
$ZEC Zcash｜Current price 1176.21
Resistance 1330, Support 1120
A previous big rally accumulated a large amount of profit-taking positions, now continuously releasing selling pressure.
Heavy resistance above, the 1120 level directly determines the strength and direction of this round of the market.
$SKHYNIX Hynix｜Current price 1158.7
Resistance 1220, Support 1128
Formed a standard double top bearish technical pattern, with the high-level trend gradually weakening.
Currently approaching a key support zone; if it can hold and stabilize, a recovery rebound will come; if it breaks down effectively, a new round of correction will officially start.
In a volatile pattern, the key to operation is simplicity: trade less and patiently wait for clear signals. Comeback Diary Day 4｜All green yesterday, fell below principal today
Yesterday morning, 7 positions were all green with an unrealized profit of +7.3U. This morning when I checked the account: equity was 72.91, less than the 76U principal. A one-day drawdown of 10U turned the comeback into just breaking even.
No market review today, but I reviewed three traps I dug for myself:
Trap 1: Turning profitable trades into losing ones. BTC went from +25% to -7.7%, DOGE from +10% to -35%. Any move in between would have been right, but I chose to "hold on for more."
Trap 2: Setting stop losses but not executing them. The stop loss I set for DOGE last night was broken overnight, but I didn’t exit, now it’s -35%. Not placing stop losses on the exchange is equivalent to having no stop loss.
Trap 3: Putting all position size on one trade. I heavily bottom-fished ZEC during its pullback, increasing from 0.03 to 0.5 with 50x leverage. Now +36% is the only bright spot in the account, but this isn’t bottom-fishing, it’s gambling—luck if right, not a strategy.
The only right move: cleared ETH and SNDK, slimming the account from 8 positions to 5.
Day 4 conclusion: You can’t make money just by picking the right direction; controlling your actions is key. The biggest short in the account is myself. Starting tomorrow, once unrealized profit exceeds 10%, stop loss must be moved to cost price, a pledge to prove it.
What’s the biggest trap you’ve stepped on in your comeback journey? Let’s talk in the comments.
Risk warning: Personal live trading record, not investment advice, leverage risk is extremely high, do not copy trades.