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#加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 What's next?
After the mid-September FOMC pullback quickly recovered, BTC reclaimed 81,000, and the total crypto market cap returned above 2.8 trillion.
But can this rally continue? There are three key data points to watch next.
First, look at ETF funds.
Last week, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of about $6.2 million, but on September 18 alone, there was an inflow of $433 million; ETH ETFs had a net outflow of about $140 million last week, breaking a 4-week streak of net inflows. Whether BTC funds can continue to flow back and whether ETH funds can stop outflows are important indicators to judge if this rally can persist.
Second, observe liquidity structure.
Spot trading volume, open interest, and funding rates need to be monitored simultaneously. Both long and short sides of mainstream assets have large liquidation orders waiting to be triggered. In the short term, focus on which side’s liquidity price will sweep first.
Third, watch this week’s macro events.
Wednesday’s PMI and Thursday’s meeting between Xi and Trump covering trade, tariffs, tech restrictions, and other core topics may amplify market volatility.
• $BTC Structure is relatively strong; watch key resistance at 8.2
Support: 8.08, 8.01
Resistance: 8.2–8.23, 8.29–8.45
• $ETH Still oscillating in a bullish structure as long as 2580 holds
Support: 2590–2580–2510
Resistance: 2688–2700, 2738–2770
• $SOL 108 is the short-term long/short boundary
Support: 108, 103
Resistance: 115, 123[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, with Trump about to meet the big players of the Gulf Cooperation Council, is Bitcoin going to shake again?
Pharaoh says directly, this meeting is essentially a "loot division conference"—the war isn't over yet, but the U.S. is already eager to discuss with the Gulf countries how to divide the spoils afterward. And Bitcoin's fate hangs entirely on those oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
First, let's look at the background of this meeting. During the UN General Assembly in New York on September 22, Trump will meet with leaders or foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and other Gulf states to focus on the "post-war strategic vision" proposed by the U.S. In plain terms, the U.S. wants to rope in the Gulf countries to put shackles on Iran.
But Iran has no intention of giving in. Speaker Kalibaf warned on the 7th that if the U.S. dares to attack Iran's oil and gas facilities, American energy assets in the Gulf region will also face retaliatory strikes.
For Bitcoin, the most critical factor is oil prices. Brent crude oil broke through $100 for the third time this year on September 9, rising over 60% cumulatively. Goldman Sachs directly warned that if the conflict escalates, oil prices could hit $120. The daily number of commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz once dropped to single digits, and supertankers had zero departures for several consecutive days. Every time oil prices push higher, inflation expectations harden, and the threat of interest rate hikes tightens.
Pharaoh sums it up in one sentence: This Gulf Cooperation Council meeting will decide whether the Strait of Hormuz loosens or tightens, whether oil prices rise or fall, and whether Bitcoin enters a major bull run or hits a peak waterfall $BTC $ETH $ONE #特朗普将会晤海湾六国，伊朗局势迎关键节点 6. Fatal risks that must be faced head-on, most people ignore them during FOMO
1. Liquidity is a double-edged sword: the higher it can be pumped, the harder it can crash
ZEC's real floating supply is limited; a small amount of funds late at night can push it to 1500; once sentiment reverses, even a small amount of selling pressure can cause a brutal drop. Chasing highs late at night faces extremely high slippage, and stop-loss orders may not execute at the target price.
2. After the short squeeze ends, the largest buying force disappears immediately
When shorts in the market are fully cleared, the buying from closing positions is completely exhausted. Without new long-term capital stepping in, the market will lose its upward engine and is prone to "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenarios.
3. The shadow of historical trust will never fully disappear
Although the Ironwood upgrade has fixed vulnerabilities, the privacy shielding feature prevents a complete historical transaction trace. This tail risk will continue to suppress the institutional allocation ceiling. Once the market weakens, old panic narratives will be brought back into play.
4. The two-way Damocles sword of regulation
A major narrative of this rally is "resisting regulatory tracking," but conversely, if Europe and the US further tighten privacy asset regulations or exchanges restrict shielded pool assets, valuations will be directly hit hard. Compliant ETFs only trade ZEC with transparent addresses and do not use privacy features, so institutional allocation and privacy narratives are inherently disconnected. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 #特朗普#ZEC Whale Closes 38,000 Short Positions, Losing Over $35 Million
$ZEC is really showing some strength this time.
According to on-chain data, the whale Garrett Jin, who once shorted ZEC from around $400, previously held up to about 39,760 ZEC, with a position value nearing $51 million. On September 21, he closed his short positions in about 1.5 hours through market orders, pushing ZEC from around $1490 to $1530, a roughly 2.7% increase in a short time. This short position ultimately lost about $35 to $36 million.
But the most interesting part isn’t "how much the whale lost."
During the closing of the short positions, the address did not simultaneously sell spot holdings; it still holds about 202,000 ZEC on-chain, valued at over $300 million at $1530 each.
In other words, the 38,000 short positions and 202,000 spot ZEC coexist, making the position structure itself quite intriguing.
Additionally, ZEC’s NU7 upgrade is still progressing, with the testnet planned to launch on October 6 and the mainnet upgrade targeted for November 5.
On one hand, there’s a $35 million-level short position exit; on the other, 200,000 ZEC spot holdings remain. How on-chain funds will change next might be more interesting than just watching the price.Altcoins have been livelier than BTC recently: UNI surged following the "tokenized stocks/regulatory exemption" narrative, while ZEC is seeing a battle between bulls and bears at high levels. When sentiment is hot, it's easiest to mistake gains for permission.
Personal memo (not a trading call):
1. Just because the narrative is right doesn't mean the volume-price structure is correct—wait for a pullback or sideways confirmation after big gains.
2. Chasing highs after the main rally usually worsens the odds; better to miss a move than add positions at the peak.
3. While BTC is still oscillating between 80,000–82,000, altcoin divergence is normal; don't base your entire portfolio on the sentiment of a single coin.
Look at the structure first, then the story. No matter how good the story sounds, your position must first pass risk control.The mysterious $ETH whale is still frantically shifting positions from BTC to ETH!
In 5 days, it has sold a total of 1107 BTC.
The corresponding capital scale is close to $86.76 million!
Then it bought 34,422 ETH and staked them all.
This no longer looks like just testing positions, but rather a sustained asset rotation!
In the past 5 days, this mysterious whale has sold a total of 1107 BTC on Hyperliquid, worth about $86.76 million, then bought 34,422 ETH, worth about $86.5 million. The amounts on both sides almost completely correspond, and the purchased ETH was not left on the exchange but directly staked in full.
This is more worth monitoring than a simple position swap. Continuously reducing BTC, increasing ETH, and then locking ETH into staking indicates that this capital shows no signs of rushing to sell again in the short term. If there are further large operations in the same direction, the capital preference for ETH relative to BTC may continue to strengthen.
An $86 million-level rotation is no small move.
If this position shifting continues, the ETH/BTC pair could get even stronger!This Monday afternoon wave, BTC hovered around 81,900 (public source intraday roughly 80,100–82,000), touched the high point and then pulled back.
My personal view (not a trading call):
1. 80,000 still holds, the defense line is not broken, but that doesn't mean you can chase recklessly
2. The pressure around 82,000 remains; if it can't hold steadily, treat it as consolidation first, don't mistake the rebound for a breakout
3. After the ETF pause on Friday, the real test this week is whether it can hold above the upper range
Positioning on "waiting for confirmation" is more cost-effective than chasing highs Monday afternoon. Light positions and setting stop losses are more important than guessing the direction. Visa to Block Meme Coin Credit Card Points Loophole
Visa is adjusting the transaction classification for meme coin credit card purchases. Previously, some checkouts on Robinhood Wallet and Fomo completed via Crossmint, Apple Pay, or Google Pay were recorded as "digital media" rather than crypto transactions, allowing users to earn regular credit card points or cashback.
Visa has informed relevant payment processors that the digital media merchant code no longer applies to these purchases, and processors are currently in a brief transition period. Meme coin credit card purchases will not disappear but will need to be processed as crypto transactions going forward and will be subject to corresponding rules.
Robinhood Wallet was one of the entry points discovered using this method. For users, the purchase entry is still temporarily available; the most direct change is that points or cashback may disappear, and the issuing bank will also recognize the transaction as a crypto purchase.
#Robinhood #CryptoPayments(June 2026 - mid-September): High-level pullback and consolidation
Falling back from the peak of $2354, with a maximum retracement of about 23%, entering a high-level range consolidation.
Latest (September 18, US Eastern close): $1791.82, single-day increase of 10.99%, storage sector collectively warming up. Short-term fluctuating repeatedly in the $1500–$1800 range, trading volume remains high, capital competition intense.
Short-term (1–4 weeks)
Focus on two core issues: ① Federal Reserve interest rate statements; ② NAND spot/contract prices.
• If rate cut expectations persist and flash memory prices remain firm: high probability of oscillating upward in the $1500–$1900 range, challenging previous highs;
• If hawkish rate hike signals are released or flash memory prices weaken: a rapid correction is likely to occur again.
Medium to long term (half-year perspective)
The core is the NAND flash supply and demand cycle.
Optimistic scenario: AI storage demand continues to exceed expectations, expansion pace is slow, flash memory prices remain high, performance continues to be realized, with potential to challenge historical highs again;
Pessimistic scenario: supply release, flash memory prices turn downward, combined with a high interest rate environment, entering a downward cycle, stock price will undergo deep adjustment. $BTC weekly chart hits the highest close in 4 months!
Price has climbed back above the 50-week moving average.
This is the first time in nearly 10 months that this line has been truly reclaimed!
The mid-term trend is finally starting to show clear recovery.
This weekly candle carries much more weight than a typical rebound!
BTC's latest weekly close marks a new 4-month high and has reclaimed the 50-week moving average, the first time in about 10 months that this mid-to-long-term trend line has been genuinely recovered. Many previous rebounds were capped by trend resistance, but this time the weekly structure is finally changing.
The key going forward is whether the 50-week moving average can flip from resistance to support. If subsequent pullbacks hold this line and the weekly closes continue to rise, the market will look more like it is entering a mid-term trend recovery phase; if it quickly falls back below, the value of this breakout will be diminished.
The highest weekly close in 4 months has been secured, and the 50-week moving average has been reclaimed.
As long as this line holds, BTC's mid-term bullish structure will become increasingly solid! Rates, long-short ratio, positions, three accounts with one answer Yesterday I said: Those catching the knife have lined up at the waterfall's edge. Today the knife has dropped—people haven't left, and the line has even lengthened. From 0.06132 to 0.05283, about twenty hours retracing 13.8%. Spot price is stepping on the 1-hour lower band at 0.05261, with the 1-hour middle band at 0.05331 and upper band at 0.05402 pressing down in layers; the 4-hour lower band is still far away at 0.04874. The ugly part is the funding side. Rate is 0.01821%, annualized 40.23%, longs pay every 4 hours, lying down for a day costs 0.109%; none of the last 10 settlements turned negative. Long-short ratio from 8.1 to 8.36, dropped to 8.14 at 15:30 then bounced back, about 80% of positions are still long. Open interest raised to around 86 million, higher than the 79.9 million recorded on 09-20. Price falls, money increases, funding rate doesn't drop. Putting these three things together has only one explanation: what's coming in is not spot buying, but leveraged longs averaging down their cost. There's also corroboration—the contract basis slid from 0.25 at noon to near 0, contracts can't be bought at a premium, all the excitement is on the betting side. Will there be a rebound? Yes. All three cycles are at low levels: 4-hour J value 22.25, 1-hour 8.18, 15-minute 8.60, oversold clustered. But a rebound and a reversal are two different things; before longs are cleared out, the bounce will first be accepted.After Bitcoin's intraday dip, it quickly recovered
It is at the upper edge of the 30-day range
After a strong rise earlier, the sideways consolidation is a strong continuation with multiple false breakout candlesticks
Last week's bearish candle was invalidated by this week's bullish engulfing candle, indicating a false breakout
In January-February 2026, a correction started exceeding 200 days
Multiple bottom divergences tested the upper boundary
The longer the consolidation, the higher the probability of a true breakout upward
To continue the rise, the key is still to watch 82500
Currently, those without positions should not rush to short before a breakout
But if you want to short, you must set a stop loss to prevent a big bullish breakout
Right now, it's just oscillating, waiting for direction, don't be fooled by a few candlesticks,
Wait for volume at 82500 before deciding the direction
Any breakout without volume is fake. $BTC $ETH #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 Whale Garrett Jin closed 38,000 ZEC short positions with market orders, taking 1.5 hours, forcibly pushing the price from $1490 to $1530, a 2.7% increase.
This short position closure cost the whale a loss of $35.44 million, but the key point is below: the same address still holds 202,000 $ZEC in spot! The cost price was only $437, and the current unrealized profit is as high as $221 million! This short position loss is less than 20% of his spot holdings.
In short, this is not a "bearish surrender" but a tactical retreat. He holds huge profits and thinks the recent rise was too sharp, so he opened a short position to bet on a short-term pullback. The market didn’t cooperate, and the short position was stopped out. But his overall net exposure remains a net long of $260 million! #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 #特朗普将会晤海湾六国，伊朗局势迎关键节点 NEAR surged nearly 20% in one day, not because they released some new whitepaper.
It's because their cross-chain swap feature (NEAR Intents) was recently integrated by wallets to swap ZEC back and forth, causing the daily volume to multiply several times.
Where the traffic goes, the coin price follows.
Have you ever paid attention to this kind of "being used as a routing" market?It is often said that ZEC's price rise is purely driven by manipulative whales. As the strongest middle schooler on Wall Street, today I will analyze it by combining smart money and order book distribution to provide everyone with a trading strategy.
First, look at the 2-hour chart: $ZEC, after surging to 1,590 to hunt liquidity, entered a secondary CHoCH pullback, currently consolidating in a wide range between 1,440–1,450.
1. SMC Key Structures
Liquidity Pools: The upper BSL clusters are at 1,500–1,520 and 1,585–1,600; the lower SSL is at 1,400–1,410, gathering a large number of long stop losses, with a very high expectation of stop loss hunting.
Order Blocks and Imbalances: The core demand zone is at 1,380–1,410, and the supply zone above is at 1,485–1,515.
2. Order Book Distribution
Sell Orders: Heavy limit walls stacked at key round numbers 1,500 and 1,550, passively blocking chasing buyers.
Buy Orders: Stair-step absorption and accumulation at 1,400–1,420, with active order eating momentum weakening; beware of a quick spike piercing 1,400 to induce a false breakout.
3. Trading Strategy
Bullish Bias (Primary - Stop Loss Hunt and Rebound): If price dips piercing 1,400 stop losses but quickly recovers above 1,425, consider going long at 1,420–1,430; stop loss below 1,390; take profit at 1,480/1,520.
Bearish Bias (Secondary - Rebound Under Pressure): Light short positions when weak rebound meets resistance at 1,500–1,510 and buy orders dry up; stop loss at 1,535; take profit at 1,450/1,410. Going long the same way, why do others profit while you get hit? The problem isn't the direction, it's the timing.
Many go long, but few make money.
It's not that the direction is wrong, it's that the timing is off.
Some chase after the rally and get caught in the pullback; others lay in wait before the move, waiting for the momentum. The same bullish outlook, different entry points, vastly different outcomes.
Now the market isn't about who is braver, but who is more patient.
When high-level assets can't rise, the funds don't disappear; they look for those that haven't risen yet. $OKB, $BNB—these early strong performers—once they stagnate and pull back, it's a signal that money is moving out.
On the $ZEC side, the upward momentum is clearly insufficient. The manipulator won't openly dump in a bull market; they'll quietly exit during the hype. I've already lightly tried shorting, with stop loss set above the previous high to avoid giving room for a spike.
The market is still active, but money only counts when it's secured. Don't let a single spike wipe out your entire account balance. #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 How to identify potential golden dogs among newly issued coins?
This should be a topic of interest for everyone, including many experienced traders.
Today, I tried a method: from the new coins issued on the Robinhood chain PONS platform, I first filtered those with a market cap below 100,000, corresponding to a total supply of 1 billion, with prices having four zeros after the decimal point, i.e., 0.0000 something (low market cap means higher potential). Then I checked whether they have revenue, token burn, an official website, and continuous promotion on X.
Among more than 40 coins meeting the first two conditions above, I filtered out 10 with revenue and token burn, and only one had both an official website and presence on X.
Therefore, I bought a small position. I bought at 0.000021, 2.42 million tokens. At that time, on-chain data showed I ranked 49th. But after the price rose, the 50th largest holder had over 4 million tokens, and my position was no longer visible.
For reference only, not investment advice.
#加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 【5000U Challenge | Dual Currency Profit Live Trading Diary】
Day 6 📔
Starting Capital: 5000U
Current Total Assets: 5100.70U
Cumulative Profit: +100.70U (+2.01%)
Today's Profit: +10.18U (+0.19%)
📝 Today's Market & Live Trading Review
A batch of dual currency profit orders all settled on Monday ✅
A large number of low-buy orders landed today: $xSOXL, $XPL, $ZEC settled one after another to lock in profits.
The storage-related asset xSOXL contributed most of today's realized profits.
After reading two harsh stories in the community about holding positions and suffering heavy losses, I remind myself to strictly control risk.
Adhering to Taleb's barbell strategy: only use less than 10% of total funds as idle money to gamble on high-risk assets, with most positions placed in stable financial products as a base.
Today, I transferred 1006.81U into USDT financial products to earn a 3.29% annualized base yield, keeping sufficient cash on hand to continue observing tonight without betting all chips on a one-sided market.
Seeing so many people borrowing, holding full positions, being controlled by candlesticks, staying up late damaging their health, and carrying loans. The market never lacks opportunities; survival is the top priority.
Currently holding 2800U in dual currency profit orders, still retaining assets like RKLB and NBIS with good cost advantages, quietly waiting for the new options window next Friday.
Not chasing explosive narratives, not stubbornly holding against the trend, earning money within my own understanding.
⚠️ Personal live trading record only, not investment advice. The crypto market is highly risky; do not borrow to invest.
#ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 #ETH冲高2700美元，质押与资金面现分化 CLARITY is dead, but the SEC instead "revived" it
The Senate rejected the CLARITY bill, and many saw it as bearish.
48 hours later, the SEC issued a 5-year exemption for tokenized stocks. The CFTC submitted a draft of crypto market rules to the White House for review.
SEC Chair Atkins said: "With or without legislation, the SEC will act within its existing authority."
What does this mean? Administrative exemptions replace congressional legislation. The advantage is speed; the downside is that the next administration can overturn it.
Tokenized stocks must provide dividend and voting rights; synthetic tokens are excluded. NYSE has reportedly been testing Avalanche technology for a year.
The question arises: how far can a market supported by regulators' "temporary exemptions" go? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 #特朗普将会晤海湾六国，伊朗局势迎关键节点 ETH mid-term outlook looks strong, a closer look shows it can still perform!
Chip situation first: The staking queue volume is 13.6 times the withdrawal volume, with 36.6 million $ETH locked in contracts, accounting for 30% of total supply, significantly reducing circulating sell pressure.
Ecosystem heating up simultaneously: Q3 single ETF inflow reached 143.7 million, DeFi locked value is 50 billion, non-empty wallets exceed 207 million, both capital and users are returning.
Catalysts haven't stopped: Glamsterdam testnet scheduled for October 6, mainnet targeted for Q4 2026, L1 gas limit expected at 200 million; Vitalik advancing privacy, ZK-EVM, and quantum resistance. Robinhood integrates Arbitrum Orbit, India pilots 620 billion tokenized assets, institutional narratives continue to expand.
Looking at the market, Ethereum peaked at 2709 early morning, $BTC touched 82088. Locked chips + upgrades + institutional triple resonance make ETH's mid-term bottom more solid. Don't get shaken out, wait for the main upward wave.
#加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元
#ETH冲高2700美元，质押与资金面现分化
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% $STX 1. Major trend: Falling continuously from the high of 3.8493, indicating a long-term bear market decline. The rise starting from 0.1176 is a bottom rebound phase, not yet a bull market reversal.
2. Bollinger Bands signals
- Weekly price is close to the upper band: short-term pressure, this position is prone to weekly-level pullbacks.
- Bollinger Bands opening has started to widen slightly from contraction, indicating increasing volatility.
3. Volume: Volume expands during the bottom rebound phase, showing clear signs of capital inflow; but currently at resistance level, it remains to be seen if volume can continue to increase and break through around 0.32.
4. Cycle returns: 90-day increase is close to 80%, with a large accumulation of short-term profit-taking, creating a need for realization. After the market rebound, it entered a high-level divergent consolidation with no clear one-sided trend. BTC is consolidating around 81300, with a clear range structure: 75000 is the core defensive support, and breaking below it will weaken the rebound structure; 83000 faces heavy resistance and is difficult to break through in the short term. At this stage, the main approach is to observe the range, neither chasing highs nor betting on declines. ETH continues its weak supporting role, following the rise without leading it, lacking independent market drivers, and overall remains on hold with low cost-effectiveness before a volume breakout. ZEC shows the strongest short-term performance, with a seven-day increase of over 30%, but high-level divergence is obvious, and after a short squeeze, it quickly retraced 8%, showing high volatility. 1590 USD is the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness; it is not recommended to chase highs before stabilizing above this level, to avoid profit-taking and shakeouts at high levels. The current macro environment is bearish, with US Treasury yields holding at a high level of 5%, oil prices stabilizing above 105 USD, and the risk of a US government shutdown intensifying, maintaining external pressure. The market is in a data vacuum period, with sentiment and news dominating the trend, volatility significantly elevated, and wide-range oscillations becoming the norm. The core focus this week is locked on September 30, when the US government shutdown risk materializes and the Grayscale ZEC ETF split event overlaps, significantly amplifying short-term volatility. The split only adjusts the share count without changing asset value, but caution is needed against the risk of positive news being priced in and realized. The market logic has completed an iteration: the exchange sector is devalued amid frequent risks, but BTC has developed an independent trend driven by spot ETF capital inflows, completely decoupling platform risk from asset valuation. Coupled with the Russian central bank lifting the quota for banks' crypto allocations, long-term capital expectations have improved. The short-term market shows sufficient resilience but limited upside.Everyone is asking Pharaoh, even the "insider whale" couldn't withstand and the shorts surrendered. How brutal was this ZEC short squeeze? Pharaoh directly said that whale Garrett Jin closed 38,000 ZEC short positions, losing about $35 million. But don't get it wrong, this guy hasn't given up at all—he still holds over 200,000 ZEC spot, worth more than $300 million. The short positions were just hedges; he hasn't sold a single spot long. Let's first see how fierce this short squeeze was. ZEC rose 183% in the past month, surged over 3000% in a year, and once approached $1600 in mid-September. Shorts were repeatedly crushed: a whale holding shorts for half a month was forced to close $24.43 million in shorts at $1548, losing $10.68 million, directly giving back the year's profits. Another big short 0x362a stopped losses 7 times overnight, with total losses close to $10 million, liquidation price nailed near 1550. But Pharaoh has to be honest—the core of this rise is not "demand explosion," but "shorts stampede." CoinGlass data says it plainly: after the first batch of shorts were swept out, the matching engine took over everything else, every liquidation was a market buy order, triggering the next liquidation. That's why ZEC could rise so crazily—the worse the shorts suffer, the stronger the price. But the real trump card is the Grayscale door. ZCSH launched less than a month ago, asset scale reached nearly $900 million, net inflow of $98.21 million in the week of September 18, ranking among the top 14 crypto categories in the US SanDisk returns to $1791, but resistance is already in place above 📈
SanDisk closed up 11% last Friday at $1791, rebounding about 20% from the September 14 low. The storage sector warmed up in sync, with Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix all rising.
Fundamentals are providing support. Nvidia's CFO recently clearly stated that "memory pricing conditions are extreme," and TechInsights expects DRAM prices to rise over 200% year-over-year, with supply tightness lasting at least until the end of 2027. The company has signed 8 multi-year long-term contracts, with minimum contract revenue of about $98 billion, a forward P/E of only 8 times, and 71% of analysts giving buy ratings.
But the technicals are sounding an alarm. Resistance above is at $1807.50, and more importantly, the daily chart is forming a rising wedge, which in most cases points to a downward breakout. CEO Goeckeler reduced 33,800 shares at an average price of $1527.87 on September 14, cashing out $51.7 million.
My view: At the $1791 level, the risk-reward ratio for chasing higher is not good. Support is seen at $1502 (50-day moving average) and $1416.50 (key support). If it pulls back to $1500-$1550 with low volume and stabilizes, that would be much more comfortable than a hard push now. Until the rising wedge is resolved, I will not add positions at this level.
For reference only, not investment advice $SNDK #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 $XAU Actually, for this kind of morning market, the risk is relatively high, so not trading is the best choice!
Short at high levels and hesitate at low levels, but the market hasn't tested any position, so what you're doing is observing. If this round breaks through, the structure will be generally more volatile with a wider range; watch for further updates.
Continuing to consolidate at high levels, an increased probability of a breakout is the ideal scenario. Currently holding at the current price. #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 Nasdaq futures rose 0.9, S&P and Dow each rose 0.6, all three indexes moved in the same direction but with different amplitudes.
Short-term traders first look at this difference: Nasdaq leading the rise means funds are pressing toward the longer duration end. But futures are expectations, not transactions; this line can be rewritten anytime before the US stock spot market opens.
What should be watched more is whether Nasdaq can maintain this relative strength after the open. If the gain is erased within the first half hour after the open, it indicates this is just a position replenishment, not a real return of risk appetite.
The observation point is the difference in gains between Nasdaq and Dow: if the difference converges below zero, this judgment is invalid.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#全球高利率预期再升温 #美债短端供给或增万亿美元 $ZEC $DOGE 0.084 to 0.09, my long position is floating with an 18% gain, watching the OKX account, feeling a bit relieved.
I glanced over, trading is quite active around 0.09, volume is much stronger than before when it was dead quiet. But above 0.093-0.095 is my original cost zone, also the densest area of trapped positions, so if it breaks through, some will definitely sell off. Below 0.085-0.086 there is support; if it breaks down, I’ll seriously consider reducing my position. The current price at 0.09 is slightly above the middle, a position worth holding for now, but don’t expect it to surge straight up.
My plan for $DOGE: first reduce half to lower the cost basis, keep the rest with a trailing take-profit; if it breaks below 0.086, close all positions; if volume pushes it above 0.093, consider adding some back. $DOGE has no new story, Musk hasn’t promoted it, this move is just an oversold rebound plus short covering, not a trend reversal. An 18% floating gain is already a big profit on it, don’t wait for a rebound only to give it back.
Take profits on this wave first, let the brave ones earn from the rest.Thirty-eight thousand soldiers were crushed by the entire open line within an hour and a half; the 35 million deficit is not a sacrificed piece, but a surrender signed on the chessboard.
Looking at this game, the first thing I don't ask is how much he lost, but what he still holds in his hand. Two hundred thousand spot coins remain untouched—that is the decisive move of the whole game. Outsiders see a short position being blown out; I see a player pushing a bishop to the diagonal as a shield, and when it can't block anymore, retreating it to protect the king. The short position is a cover; the spot coins are the trump card. Removing the cover doesn't mean conceding defeat, it just means pulling the battle line from the dangerous diagonal back into one's own camp. This is exchanging pieces for time, not a collapse.
Look again at those ninety minutes. ZEC pushed from 1490 to 1530, a rise of only 2.7%, moving slowly and steadily, advancing along the thinnest liquidity line with market orders. This is not a blitzkrieg; this is a forcing move in the endgame—each step is not flashy, but each step compresses the opponent's breathing space. The truly fatal move is never the check itself, but leaving you with no pieces to move, forcing you to move first but making every move wrong.
High funding rates and high leverage positions on the board are like two nails plus a restraint. The higher the piece density, the fiercer the chain reaction of piece exchanges triggered by a single check. Short-term volatility doesn't come from direction, but from structure—the tighter the structure, the more explosive any touch will be.
NU7's testnet is scheduled for October 6, and the mainnet is targeted for November 5. This is the pawn advance at the opening, a center control established several moves in advance. The real money makers won't wait until the upgrade day to act; they've already marked these two dates on the game record.
Don't forget the pieces on the other wing. The tokenized gold baseline is speaking silently; while the high-volatility open line is being bloodied, the safe-haven pieces are quietly gathering. The asynchronous rhythms of the two wings are the true deep waters of this game.
Some have been cleared off the board, while others still hold a mountain in their hands.
The shorts have left, but the 200,000 spot coins still stand firm—that's not a position that couldn't be sold in time, but a move waiting for the opponent's time to be gradually exhausted. #ZEC38KShortClosed In January 2027, the Korean won will implement around-the-clock settlement.
At first glance, I thought it was big news, but after reading, I found out it’s just the Bank of Korea giving the green light to foreign investors.
Simply put: previously, foreigners exchanging or settling Korean won had to wait for banks to open and go through a bunch of procedures. From now on, settlement can happen anytime, 24/7.
Does this have anything to do with crypto? No direct relation.
But it shows one thing — traditional finance is also competing for the "around-the-clock" experience. The most outstanding feature of crypto is being gradually copied.
Impact on the market? Zero. Don’t force a connection.
What’s really worth watching is whether, before the 2027 launch, South Korea will introduce supporting stablecoins or tokenized deposit initiatives. That’s the part related to crypto.
To be honest, just take this kind of news as a glance, don’t chase it as a bullish signal.
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #全球高利率预期再升温 $HYPE The second truth: Falling wedge breakout, bears have piled up a grave between 0.84-0.87
Look at the technical structure.
Since early September, SUI has been operating within a falling wedge—lower highs and lower lows, with the trading range gradually narrowing. This is a typical "compression" pattern. The longer the compression, the more explosive the breakout.
A few days ago, SUI broke out above the wedge with volume. After the breakout, it retraced to $0.806, which was confirmed as a key support level. Holding $0.806 means the breakout is valid; breaking below $0.806 means the breakout failed.
Then the price surged directly from $0.806 to $0.97. How many bears piled up at this level?
Look at the liquidation data. In the early morning of September 21, SUI rose from 0.836 to 0.886, with $290,000 worth of short positions liquidated within one hour, and zero long liquidations. By 9:18 AM, another $250,000 of shorts were liquidated. The afternoon saw an additional $170,000 of short liquidations.
Every surge is the bears' own margin being bought out. $BTC $ETH $SUI #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 #特朗普将会晤海湾六国，伊朗局势迎关键节点 #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元
Held for 3 months, lost 35 million, ZEC's largest short seller finally gave up
On September 21, on-chain monitoring showed,
Addresses related to Garrett Jin actively closed about 38,000 ZEC short positions on Hyperliquid
This short position was opened for nearly 3 months, with an average price of about $666,
Finally closed near $1459–$1530, with an actual loss of about $35.4 million–$36.1 million
But this was not a liquidation, it was a voluntary loss acceptance.
Before closing, he also sold about 35,000 ETH to cover margin,
Raising the ZEC liquidation price from $2631 forcibly to $4738.
Even with the safety cushion raised so high, he still chose to exit
At least it shows he no longer believes ZEC will easily fall back.
He himself no longer sees the cost-effectiveness of continuing to short
Moreover, after closing the short, he still hasn't sold 202,000 ZEC spot.
That means after exiting this short, his net exposure actually leans more bullish
Going forward, I still remain bullish,
If $1500 holds, I continue to look at $1800, even $2000
Of course, there are still short-term risks.
ZEC funding rate once surged to an annualized rate above 170%, long leverage is already very crowded
Short sellers have started to doubt it can fall,
$ZEC's real pressure has instead become when the high-level longs will start to loosen. #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 Crash Breakdown
$OFC crashed today, down 9.63% in 24 hours, with a volatility amplitude reaching 21.79 percentage points, directly slamming the market.
Current price is $0.008835, with a trading volume of 1.62M USD, volume at least doubled compared to the same period, indicating significant capital movement.
The 24-hour high was $0.010670, the low was $0.008540, creating a 21.8-point operational space between high and low.
Belonging to another sector, this round of crash is not an isolated coin event; at least 3 coins in the same track moved synchronously, showing clear sector linkage effects.
First layer: selling pressure—profit-taking concentrated and exiting.
Second layer: smart money reduced positions by at least 20 percentage points in advance.
Final layer: retail panic selling causing a stampede.
Observation point: check if large capital is absorbing during the decline; if trading volume shrinks to less than 30% of today's volume, then it’s a real drop, not a shakeout.
In plain terms: don’t chase abnormal moves; wait for absorption to finish and watch the structure; if the structure breaks, don’t stubbornly hold on.
Market data comes from OKX public API and does not constitute any investment advice.
That’s all for now, the rest is up to the market.BTC and ETH Are Telling Different Parts of the Story
$BTC is still the market’s main liquidity signal. $ETH, meanwhile, shows whether that liquidity is spreading into the broader ecosystem.
When BTC holds its structure while ETH starts gaining strength with improving volume, market breadth is getting healthier. If ETH keeps lagging despite BTC strength, that tells a different story.
The next thing I’d track is ETH relative strength against BTC.
#CryptoCapReclaims2.8T #ZEC38KShortClosed The short position bearing beam of 38,000 ZEC was forcibly pierced by the market with market orders within 1.5 hours.
I've seen too many scenes like this on construction sites: a shear wall of a building hollowed out from the bottom, no matter how magnificent the facade above, it can't hold. The operation of this Garrett Jin-associated address is essentially a structural engineer's mistake—he simultaneously placed loads in two directions: holding about 202,000 ZEC in spot foundational structure on one side, while hanging 38,000 short positions as cantilever on the outside. When the surge came, the short cantilever component was pulled off, resulting in a loss exceeding $35 million, the cost of this structural failure.
But what really deserves mapping is that his foundation did not move. The spot position remained completely still, indicating the building's pile foundation is still intact. The shorts were likely just temporary supports hedging against wind pressure; after removal, the main structure is actually cleaner. ZEC rose from 1490 to 1530 in this round of liquidation, an increase of about 2.7%, which is just a rebound from external stress unloading and does not represent a real increase in material strength.
Looking now at the NU7 upgrade blueprint: testnet on October 6, mainnet on November 5. I never trust renderings, only construction milestones. The testnet is the foundation pouring, the mainnet is the main structure topping out, and the month in between is the curing period—any crack could cause rework. High funding rates and dense leveraged positions are like stacking overloaded prefabricated slabs on the roof; a short-term gust will cause shaking.
As for the market linkage of the US stock token XNVDA, think of it as another tower in the same planned area—sharing underground utility corridors and geological conditions. Stress changes in the crypto market will be transmitted through funding pipelines, but its own structural design and load-bearing system are completely different; you cannot judge that side’s settlement by the cracks here.
In my line of work, the biggest taboo is to accept decorative curtain walls as load-bearing walls. #ZEC38KShortClosed $BTC HAS A DIFFERENT SETUP GOING INTO THIS WEEK
Bitcoin recovered above $80K, but Friday’s ETF inflow did most of the work: $433M entered spot BTC ETFs, while the entire week finished with only $6.2M net inflows.
That tells me the rebound is real, but the institutional confirmation is still incomplete.
If ETF demand expands beyond one strong session, the $80K recovery becomes much more convincing. $BTC Global risk assets are simultaneously under pressure, with geopolitical disturbances spreading from the Strait of Hormuz statement to the direction of Yemen. High inflation and rising oil prices continue to suppress liquidity expectations. As a result, the crypto market has experienced a chain reaction of deleveraging, with over 100,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours, amounting to more than $240 million. Bitcoin's market cap has returned to the top fifteen global assets, and the HYPE spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $1.03 million, indicating that distant demand still has support.
However, the on-chain structure has not followed the panic. ETH is currently priced around 2665, with a complete bullish arrangement, MACD golden cross resonance, and buying initiative dominance. During the red light wait, a glance at the liquidation chart shows a noticeably high density of short positions stacked between 2670 and 2700, giving the price momentum to test this area upwards. The logic here is liquidity attraction, not merely emotional recovery.
In terms of operation, use a pullback without breaking 2650 as the observation pivot, with an entry range between 2655 and 2668, stop-loss set below 2638, first take-profit target at 2695, reduce positions after breaking 2700 and aim for the 2720 level. If volume stalls or it falls below 2640, the long position logic is invalidated.
$ETH
#特朗普将会晤海湾六国，伊朗局势迎关键节点
@OKX星球 BTC is holding near $80.4K while ETH sits around $2.58K, but the interesting part is the difference in momentum: BTC is down about 0.9% over 24h, while ETH is down roughly 1.8%. That makes ETH the cleaner breadth signal right now. If ETH stabilizes while BTC holds the $80K area, the pullback looks more like consolidation after the recent move. If ETH keeps underperforming, it suggests risk appetite across the broader market is weakening. For now, I’m watching BTC’s $80K area and ETH around $2.54Wow, sold too early, missed out on 30% profit.
1. $ONE really can pump, directly from 24% underwater to nearly 20% above water now.
Feels like what I missed isn’t just a few points, but a big chunk of meat,
several bowls of pig's trotter rice.
No reversal after death,
still an upward trend.
That sharp drop this morning was just a cleanup,
clearing out high leverage and unsteady bulls.
The chance of continuing to pump afterward is much greater than dropping,
but I’ve closed all positions,
can’t enter the market immediately now.
If it really surges later,
missing out is missing out,
missed trades don’t cause losses,
reckless trading does.
Regarding $ONE’s next moves,
see if it can drop sharply again,
so I can re-enter and catch a wave.
2. $ZETA got stuck in this one,
recently coins really are moving sideways,
ZETA’s 15-minute chart shows a spike pumping 30%, 40% in one candle.
Rare to see such pumps in past months,
sure enough, with mainstream coins recovering,
altcoin activity has also increased.
Shorting altcoins recently requires extreme caution,
never hold through losses stubbornly,
must cut losses without hoping for luck,
otherwise you can get wiped out in one move.
When altcoins go crazy,
they can 10x in 2 or 3 days,
no matter how small your position or leverage,
you can get blown up.
#加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 ZEC Is Testing Demand for Privacy
$ZEC has a thesis that goes beyond market momentum: whether users still value private transactions when speculation cools.
The stronger signal is actual usage, liquidity and sustained demand. If activity grows alongside price, the move has more substance; if volume disappears after the initial push, momentum can unwind quickly.
Privacy is the thesis. Adoption is the proof.
#CryptoCapReclaims2.8T #ZEC38KShortClosed #TrumpGulfIranTalks $BTC 81,802.01, 24h +1.78%. Today, only talking about it.
【Today's multiple coin levels · all can be verified】
$BTC 81,802.01 | Support 80,165.49 | Resistance 82,100
$DOGE 0.0900 | Support 0.0800 | Resistance 0.0900
$XRP 1.44 | Support 1.37 | Resistance 1.45
Today it is rising. After the short squeeze on the weekend of 9/21, BTC stood back at 81,000 and touched 82,100 (74k→82k +$8,000 short squeeze), intraday range 80,165-82,100; the 83-86k short liquidation dense zone is both fuel above and a distribution area. 24h forced liquidations on 9/21 reached about 240 million (shorts accounted for 51%); the weekend short squeeze single-day liquidation exceeded 500 million, after the weekend short squeeze, longs and shorts rebalanced on Monday (BTC 50.8% long / 49.2% short).
My account: Above 82,100 I consider it strong, falling back to 80,165.49 I consider it weak.
I bet it will first touch 82,100: BTC weekend short squeeze stood back at 81,000 and touched 82,100, 74k→82k +$8,000 short squeeze, BTC ETF on 9/19 +433 million hit a recent high, Fidelity accounts for 72%. If I’m wrong, I’ll admit it tomorrow.
I write my bets here every day, watching the market more closely than anyone — just afraid that the...BTC has retraced near 81,500, but ETH is still grinding below 2,650, and XRP has only recovered from yesterday's low. The biggest conflict today is: the overall market looks stable, but there are not many coins that can truly absorb the resistance levels; funds are clearly shifting from "broad rally" back to "selecting the strong".
#BTCHighVolatility
#MainstreamCoinsReselection
$BTC is currently around 81,300, with today's low near 80,800. The 80,800–81,000 range is the first support, and 80,000 below remains the most important defense line for this breakout; on the upside, watch 81,500 first. Only after a real volume-driven close above 82,000 will there be a chance to open up more space.
$ETH is currently about 2,632, with 2,605–2,615 as the first defense. On the upside, 2,648–2,650 is the most immediate resistance; only after a solid close above this can we look toward 2,670–2,700. If ETH cannot break above 2,650, it will be difficult for small caps to fully enter the second phase.
$XRP is currently about 1.407, with 1.387–1.39 as the first support. On the upside, watch for a breakout above 1.417; only after reclaiming 1.445 can it be considered to have restored the strength seen a few days ago.
This lineup: BTC waiting for 82,000, ETH waiting for 2,650, XRP waiting for 1.417. Now it's not about who is still rising, but who can first turn resistance into new support. SOL and ETH Are Competing for the Same Liquidity
$ETH remains deeply tied to DeFi, stablecoins and on-chain settlement, while $SOL continues to compete through high activity and fast execution.
The interesting signal is where new liquidity gets stronger participation. If both gain volume together, breadth is improving; if one leads while the other fades, capital is becoming more selective.
I’d watch relative strength + volume, not price alone.
#CryptoCapReclaims2.8T #ZEC38KShortClosed The most interesting thing about the US stock market right now might not be Nvidia.
Recently, there's been a pretty interesting contrast in the US stock market.
A few days ago, when the voices about AI "slowing down" came out, chip stocks like Nvidia, SanDisk, and Micron were hit first; but by last Friday, SanDisk surged 10.99%, Micron rose nearly 4%, and the semiconductor sector rallied again.
Even more interestingly, after the news of AI slowing down, Google actually rose by 2.7% at one point. The market started to recalculate: if the AI arms race isn't that crazy, the ones who can truly keep making money might still be the giants with cloud, traffic, and their own chips.
So now I'm actually focusing on two directions:
$GOOGL for AI commercialization, $SNDK for the storage demand behind AI.
One sells the shovel, the other is the mine itself.
This round of AI market might be shifting from "whose model is the strongest" to "who can actually make the money back in the end."
#美债短端供给或增万亿美元 Bitcoin rebound questioned by the “Golden Cross,” Ethereum holds above 2600, ZEC whale shorts trigger a short squeeze
$BTC rose about 4% within 24 hours, rebounding to around $81,280, once touching $82,000. This rally was mainly driven by the SEC's tokenized stock exemption benefits and short squeeze pressure. However, analyst Benjamin Cowen warned that the “Golden Cross” formed by the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average is not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal; the real key signal lies in whether the weekly candle can close above the 50-week moving average. The core resistance zone remains between $80,000 and $84,000; if it fails to break through after prolonged attempts, a pullback to $70,000–$72,000 to form a higher low may occur first.
$ETH rose about 3.5%, once breaking above $2700, reaching a new high since late January this year. Previously, Ethereum had broken out of the long-term sideways range of $1800 to $2000 during summer and held above the psychological $2600 level over the weekend. Analyst Axel Kibar pointed out that the ideal scenario after the breakout is to hold the $2550 support and see consecutive strong daily closes, rather than a rapid spike. If $2550 support fails, this rally may still be just a short-term impulse within a long-term sideways range.
$ZEC once approached $1600 within 24 hours, hitting a multi-year high, with a market cap close to $25 billion. The RSI has exceeded 70, entering the overbought zone, and the whale still holds about 200,000 ZEC spot, with unrealized gains over $220 million. Once profits are realized, selling pressure may form.Cryptocurrency Volatility Alert in the Past 24 Hours There has been a very clear change in the market over the past 24 hours: BTC is still rising, but the real frenzy is happening with altcoins.
BTC is currently fluctuating around $81,000, ETH has reclaimed 2600 and surpassed 2700, indicating that the overall market risk appetite continues to recover. More notably, Layer1 tokens like NEAR, AVAX, and SUI have clearly outperformed BTC, with NEAR rising over 20% at one point and AVAX gaining more than 15% in 24 hours.
On the other hand, ZEC remains strong and has become a very obvious high-beta asset in this round of capital rotation; meanwhile, the GameFi sector has seen a pullback of over 9%. Also altcoins, the funds are clearly starting to diverge.
So the biggest signal now is not "the entire crypto market is rising," but that capital is searching for directions with greater elasticity.
Short-term focus can be on several types: watch if BTC can continue to hold $80,000; watch if ETH can turn the 2700 resistance into support; for strong Layer1s like NEAR and AVAX, watch for a second volume surge after the rise; for ZEC, pay attention to profit-taking after consecutive large gains.
Risks are also clear: in the past 24 hours, crypto market trading volume has increased significantly, and total market capitalization is close to $2.9 trillion, indicating a clear rise in capital activity. But the faster the rotation, the easier it is to be repeatedly harvested by chasing highs and selling lows.
What I’m more focused on now is one signal: BTC stabilizes, ETH breaks through, and altcoins follow with volume — if these three conditions are met simultaneously, this round of marketCore reasons for the recent surge of AVAX in the crypto circle:
1. The NYSE parent company ICE has been testing the chain for a year, fully boosting the RWA narrative, revaluing AVAX from an ordinary public chain to financial infrastructure.
2. Paxos integrated AVAX into a compliant platform, opening channels to 650 institutions and 470 million end users, allowing real money to flow in.
3. On September 22, the Helicon upgrade reduced the staking unlock period from 14 days to 48 hours, locking more coins and directly shrinking the circulating supply.
4. New coin issuance will decrease, with annual issuance reduced by 0.5%~1%, easing dilution pressure on holders and alleviating sell-off expectations.
5. On-chain RWA is genuinely running, with $1.1 billion in assets on-chain; New York Life issued a tokenized fund, showing institutions are truly using it, not just speculating.$ZEC Largest Short Position Closed
Whale Garrett Jin closed all 38,000 ZEC short positions with market orders within 1.5 hours, incurring a loss of about $35.44 million
The closeout directly pushed ZEC from $1490 up to $1530‼️‼️
The short positions were opened in June at an average price of $665.8
When ZEC rose above $1500, the unrealized loss once exceeded $33 million; meanwhile, he also sold ETH to top up margin and added more shorts at $1252
Currently, he still holds 202,000 ZEC spot, valued at over $300 million, with unrealized profits of about $221 million
The shorts were for hedging; the spot holdings are the trump card. After closing the shorts, he should now be purely long
Could it be a coordinated harvest with the market makers❓❔❓
#ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 He held on through a floating loss of 1.6 million, then made a profit of 2.29 million.
There will definitely be comments saying "holding the position is the right move," but I don't see it that way.
A long ETH position worth 29.6 million, with 20x leverage, average price 2482. It dropped right after opening, with a floating loss of 1.6 million a few days ago. He didn't cut losses, and today ETH rose 5.5%, giving him a floating profit of 2.29 million.
He made the news because he survived. Those who held positions but didn't make it, no one writes about them. Every "held and recovered" story you see is backed by ten people who got liquidated. This time he was just lucky, not because his method was right.
Also, he had the capital to hold on, which you might not have. If his 29.6 million position got liquidated, he still has money. If yours gets liquidated, it's gone.
When facing a floating loss of 1.6 million, you should cut losses. Don't wait until a real liquidation to regret it.
$BTC $ETH $PIEVERSE Honestly, I myself thought it was risky for this trade to survive until now; luck played a big part. The market waits for the right moment, and profits come from holding on.
Last night at dawn, I looked at PIEVERSE; the support below didn't break, and the market was grinding, making people sleepy. I only gave one tip: as long as the pullback doesn't break the support, there's still a chance.
Holding from 1.6703 to 1.7675, +116.38% gave the answer. This gain feels good; the wait was worth it.
I took profit on 70% first, keeping the remaining 30% at cost price as protection. If it continues to rise, let the profits run; if it falls back, don't let the gains become painful. Profits don't inflate, and pullbacks aren't despairing.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and move when the next signal appears.
$ZEC $XRP From the four-hour perspective, although a new high was reached in the morning, most of the gains were given back after the surge. Currently, the real body is shrinking and the upper shadow is clearly lengthening, indicating that selling pressure remains at the high level. The previously raised low structure is temporarily maintained, but this breakout did not form a continuation, making it more likely to first retest the lower support later. Attention should be paid to the pullback after the surge here; it cannot be directly assumed to be another shakeout. Looking at the hourly chart, the changes are more obvious: the bearish candle that surged high swallowed the real body of the previous bullish candle, and the newly opened space was suppressed again. Although the bullish candle is currently filling the gap, it is still inside the large bearish candle and has not yet reclaimed its upper real body edge. Most likely, there will be a rebound to confirm resistance before retesting the lower lows. Enter positions when the rebound reaches the middle to upper part of the large bearish candle, and observe whether the upward attack is blocked; there is no rush to short at the current position. The space downwards is divided into two segments: first, look at the support near the previous spike, then the extension after the breakdown; the second segment requires the market to continue weakening to match. Bitcoin short at 81500-81800, first target 80600, then 79800. Ethereum short at 2670-2685, first target 2610, then 2570