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The one farce is over
I hope you, my friend,
did not go long just for the sake of high fees,
especially when it was at 0.005
and the fee rate reached 0.7% per hour.
The reason I didn’t go short
is completely because this battle is uncontrollable.
Both long and short positions are very inappropriate,
with extremely poor cost-effectiveness.
There are three scenarios that are quite fatal for short positions:
One is sideways price movement with no change, where you need to pay 20% of principal daily.
The second is a slow decline, dropping 10% a day, but with a daily funding fee of 20%, resulting in a 10% loss.
The third is even more fatal: if it continues to rise, 500u principal grows to 1000u, then the funding fee can be as high as 40% per day.
The fourth scenario is a rapid drop where you can make some profit; one might say one is exactly this fourth case.
But with this kind of coin, just one time can wipe out the gains of ten attempts.
For me, this cost-effectiveness is very poor.
Not entering the market and watching from the sidelines is undoubtedly the wisest choice.
$ONE $AKE $UNI
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 No vision, can't hold on, this wave of profit is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. Just finished lunch and checked the market, $RAY pushed up another notch.
From 1.1200 to 2.0020, +1578.92%, just quietly lying there. No operation, no analysis, all confidence comes from the position.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. Hold as long as the trend is intact, run when it breaks, don't fall in love with your position.
Take profit on 70% first, move the remaining 30% to a safe protection level, don't be greedy for the last bit, and don't let the profits you've made slip back.
Now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, patiently await good news.
$BTC $LAB Brothers, are you here now? Many people mistakenly think that rolling positions means continuously adding positions, increasing the size of the position more and more, and relying on one market wave to directly grow the account. Traders who can truly grow profits over the long term with rolling positions have a completely non-aggressive approach.
Practical rolling position rules:
Never go all-in with 30,000 profit principal; only use a small portion of funds as margin, open orders with low leverage in isolated margin mode, and precisely calculate the stop-loss level before entering the market.
After the first order is profitable, only use part of the floating profit to participate in the next market phase; never put all floating profits in.
If the first order hits the stop-loss, exit immediately; even if it means losing profits, never hold the position.
Only act when there is a clear market structure: after a sharp drop, sideways consolidation confirms the low point, then a volume breakout of a key level; entry, exit, stop-loss, and target levels all have clear references. Never force opening positions without meeting conditions.
Floating profits can be used to increase trading opportunities but must never be used to amplify your trading courage. Many beginners have smooth sailing in the first few rolling trades, increasing position sizes, but when facing a reverse market, they hesitate to stop loss and end up losing all previous profits.
The truth:
What truly rolls in rolling positions is never the position size but the profits you have already realized. Part of the earned money is forcibly taken off the table, and part continues to participate in the game; if subsequent positions lose the floating profits, stop immediately and never touch the original principal. The core premise is always: if wrong, safely exit; if right, lock in profits timely; and patiently wait when there is no market.
$ZEC $BTC
#ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 The U.S. government is set to become an overseas promoter of the dollar stablecoin.
According to Bloomberg, the Trump team is considering two things: first, to increase the use of dollar-denominated stablecoins overseas; second, the government might partner with private companies to launch stablecoin projects.
Sounds big, but the bottom line is one goal—to maintain the dollar's global dominance and, at the same time, encourage more people to buy U.S. Treasury bonds.
You see, stablecoin issuers hold users' funds, and most of that money goes into buying U.S. Treasuries. So, the larger the stablecoin market, the steadier the demand for Treasuries.
This logic isn't new, but the government personally stepping in to endorse it changes the flavor.
For the crypto community, this is a boost in sentiment. Stablecoins getting official approval makes the long-term narrative stronger.
But don't expect too much in the short term; it will take some time for this news to reflect in coin prices.
What really needs attention is whether concrete joint projects will materialize, where the funding will come from, and how large the scale will be.
Just talk won't do; real money needs to be on the table.
#Apple、Google招聘稳定币相关人才，或进军加密支付？
#SoFi与万事达卡启动稳定币结算 #美债短端供给或增万亿美元 $BTC The current operational approach remains unchanged: writing content, contracts, and memes.
The strategy still uses a barbell approach, doing mainstream top assets on one side and pure memes on the other.
Currently, the remaining funds hold $BNB spot; long contracts on Bitcoin $BTC, continuing to hold and watching for when it breaks through 90,000; tried going long on $PONS the day before yesterday, opened a test position to check strength. Its recent fundamental data has dropped sharply, so I didn't have the courage to add more positions, but it turned out to be so strong.
Finally, many friends have asked about writing content on OKX, so I'll briefly explain. Writing content can indeed earn incentives, and the larger the traffic, the more incentives you get. Likes and comments can increase weight.
What is the core?
When you are still a new account, a novice, content is the most important. Only with content can you get traffic. With traffic, you will gradually gain influence. With influence, whatever you post can get very large traffic.$BTC
Bitcoin cycle analysis: Risks are driven up, the peak is approaching, and the pullback is getting closer!
A month ago, Bitcoin was ignored by everyone. I personally mentioned that breaking through the 50-week moving average was just a matter of time, buy on dips, and the pullback is a golden opportunity.
Now Bitcoin has risen to a high of 87,000, firmly above the 50-week moving average, and everyone believes the bull market has arrived. Yes, the bull market is here, but it never goes smoothly.
Historically, from breaking through the 50-week moving average to reaching a new all-time high usually takes 6-8 months. From the current 85,000 to the new high of 120,000, there is less than 40,000 space, but it will take half a year! This means volatility, pullbacks, and consolidation are inevitable.
In this rally, latecomer retail investors have finally woken up, starting to believe in the eternal bull market and that new highs are imminent.
However, the daily-level 1-2-3-4-5 wave (see previous post) has most likely been completed or is about to be completed. Open interest (total positions) has already started to surge, and retail investors are beginning to FOMO.
More importantly, according to the cycle model, at the end of September to early October, Bitcoin will reach the 20-week cycle peak, as shown in the chart. Every time Bitcoin hits a major cycle peak, a decent pullback follows.
In view of this, I have already advised shorting in the group and placed orders near 88,100 (daily-level fishhook strong resistance) to continue adding shorts.
At the same time, spot and long positions remain unchanged; shorting is just to hedge risk. I believe this is a bull market shakeout to weed out weak retail investors, then continue to rally! I will look for support levels to go long again during the panic of the next pullback. The global AI market is heating up again, combined with the continued weakening of the yen, the Japanese stock market is expected to see a catch-up rally. The Nikkei 225 futures have already priced in optimistic expectations in advance. During the holiday period, the yen weakened continuously, boosting profit expectations for export companies. The Japanese semiconductor and AI equipment sectors have become the main market themes.
Yen depreciation can directly increase profits for Japanese multinational export companies. Meanwhile, the global AI and chip markets are recovering, driving valuation recovery for SoftBank and semiconductor equipment manufacturers. The synergy of these two factors is attracting capital back into Japanese stocks.
Personal view:
The short-term positive logic is clear, but risks cannot be ignored. Continued yen depreciation will pressure the Bank of Japan to adjust its policy. If the exchange rate falls too quickly, Japanese authorities may intervene at any time to stabilize the currency, which would directly interrupt this rally.
Additionally, this rally largely follows the passive catch-up of the US AI stock sector. If overseas AI chip stocks experience a correction, Japanese stocks are very likely to fall in sync.
This situation also has reference value for the crypto market. As global risk appetite warms, funds are willing to allocate to overseas equity assets, indirectly benefiting crypto market sentiment; however, if yen intervention triggers severe exchange rate volatility, risk assets will also be affected.
Do not blindly chase the catch-up rally; focus on the yen exchange rate and the sustainability of the US AI stock sector.$ZEC back to $1500
This time I'm ready to buy back on the pullback!
$ZEC surged to a high of $1658 yesterday, then fell back to around $1500. Those who thought it was expensive when it broke through $1600 earlier are now waiting for a lower price.
I previously advised positioning around $1130–$1150, and the rise above $1600 hasn't changed my view on this rally. A short-term pullback of over 8% doesn't mean the upward trend is over, but whether $1500 can hold depends on the upcoming trading volume.
This time I won't buy all at once during the rebound. I'll start buying in batches around $1500, and if it breaks below and can't recover, I'll wait for the next stabilization; once it climbs back above $1600, I'll look at the previous high of $1658 again.$UNI fell back from $10.94 to around $9, the pullback I've been waiting for has arrived!
$UNI surged to a high of $10.94 yesterday, then dropped back to around $9. Within one day, it broke through $10 and then quickly retraced, which is tough for those chasing the rise, but for those who didn't buy earlier, now is a chance to reconsider entry points.
CME plans to launch UNI futures on October 19, pending regulatory review. This news won't make the price only go up without falling, but it adds a potential new channel for institutions to trade UNI.
My previous target for UNI was $11, which remains unchanged. Around $9, first observe if the decline can stop; scaling in gradually is more appropriate than chasing above $10; if it climbs back above $10, then we will see if it can challenge $10.94 again.BTC, ETH, and XRP all fell together, and surprisingly, the first to break defense was the altcoins. 😂
BTC is still hovering around 84K, ETH about $2670, and XRP is weakening in sync.
BTC:
"I'm just pulling back a bit."
Altcoins:
"Don't move! If you move, I'm gone!"
😂
But what’s really worth watching today isn’t how much turned red.
It’s who’s starting to quietly recover from the drop.
If BTC holds steady at 84K, ETH climbs back above 2700, and XRP begins to narrow its losses, it means market sentiment might be slowly returning.
Conversely, if BTC continues to weaken and altcoins keep dropping with volume, don’t comfort yourself by saying "this is just a shakeout."
The market won’t change the candlesticks just because you shout confidently.
Right now, I watch the market in this order:
BTC for direction.
ETH for risk appetite.
XRP for whether funds are coming back.
And I’ve noticed a particularly interesting pattern in crypto:
When BTC rises,
everyone thinks they’re a trading master.
When BTC falls,
everyone suddenly becomes a macroeconomist.
😂
Yesterday it was:
"100K is just a matter of time."
Today it’s already:
"Is the Fed going to raise rates again?"
Bro, BTC only moved a few points.
You’ve already written your thesis.
So don’t run wild with emotions.
I just focus on the real market every day and point out where there’s unusual movement. $CORE $CORE $CORE Project team's recent announcement mainly focuses on the hard fork "rescue chain," but deliberately avoids three core issues:
1. 69 million "ghost tokens": The hard fork only destroyed 186 million tokens still in the reward pool, but about 69 million excess tokens have been transferred to external wallets with no recovery or destruction plan to date. These near-zero-cost tokens could crash the market at any time.
2. Missing complete incident report: The official promised full technical review report has not been released yet; the market remains unaware of how long the vulnerability existed or if there are other hidden risks.
3. Core product delay: The SatPay product, which forms the basis of the buyback narrative, has been confirmed delayed, meaning the expected ecosystem revenue is far off, and the buyback plan has become a "long-term vision."Yesterday I said if 2783 couldn't be broken, it would pull back, but the pullback was deeper than I expected, 2712 didn't hold, and the lowest dropped to 2633. This morning it slowly recovered to around 2680.
· Resistance: 2706, 2744, 2783
· Support: 2658, 2630, 2600
Buy if it pulls back and stops falling between 2664-2650
· Stop loss: 2630
· Target: 2690 → 2710
If it can't break through around 2690, short
· Stop loss: 2712
· Target: 2650 → 2633
Short if it breaks below 2633
· Stop loss: 2660
· Target: 2612 → 2563
It tried twice to break above 2783 but failed to hold, more and more are trapped above, this basically forms a hard ceiling. If 2630 holds, the large range will continue to consolidate; if broken, the batch of long positions entered at low levels will be liquidated in a chain reaction.
Retail investors keep buying as it falls, while big players flip to short positions, and active buy orders are still increasing — chips are transferring from big players to retail investors. This kind of turnover during a downtrend usually is not a bottom.
Bot has been buying in during the recent drops: some near the low points smashed in the early morning, and some short positions were also closed accordingly. Overall, a small loss.
The break below 2712 this time, is it a shakeout or a trend reversal?
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ $ETH
Be flexible at key levels, watch your position size, take profits and stop losses timely, and pay attention to data timeliness.
⚠️The above content is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice Bitcoin crashed $2,400 overnight, 140,000 liquidations!
Market update: BTC is currently at $84,165, down 2.59% in 24 hours, still up 11.63% over 7 days, with a market cap of 1.69 trillion. Fear & Greed Index at 71, in the greed zone. ETH is currently at $2,749, up 2.24% in 24 hours.
BTC: Institutions are buying, retail investors are running
Earlier this week, BTC surged to $87,360, an eight-month high. On-chain data shows a 47% rebound from the July low, but aSOPR is only 1.01, indicating limited profit-taking pressure. More importantly, BTC has reclaimed the 365-day moving average, which CryptoQuant identifies as a key confirmation signal for a bull market cycle.
However, there is a bull-bear divergence at $84,000 — trader Van de Poppe is waiting for a sweep at this level to enter, with the 4-hour EMA50 support at $81,938.
#BTC🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H
BTC is responsible for confirming the main market direction, ETH is used to observe capital breadth, and ZEC acts more like a high Beta sentiment thermometer.
Currently, the focus is not just on price increase, but whether price + volume + OI are synchronized. Only when all three align does the breakout have more reference value.📊
BTC holds $83.5K–$84K
ETH reclaims $2.70K
ZEC stays above $1.45K
→ 🚀 Bullish structure has the chance to continue expanding
BTC is stable, but ETH/ZEC start to weaken
→ ⚠️ The market may be led by only a few assets, lacking breadth
🔥 Latest catalyst: The US spot BTC ETF has recently recorded continuous capital inflows, with a net inflow of about $714.8M on September 22, and nearly $999M the day before; capital returning is strengthening market liquidity support.
Additionally, the ZEC ETF attracted about $98.2M in the week ending September 18, indicating some funds are spreading to high Beta assets, while ETH funds saw about $140M net outflow in the same period.
📌 Conclusion: BTC looks at direction, ETH looks at breadth, ZEC looks at risk appetite.
First look at structure, then at breakout.
Confirm first, position second. 🔥 The most ridiculous thing in the $BTC crypto world today: when Bitcoin dips a little, altcoins immediately start rushing to deliver their last words. 😂
BTC is still hovering around 84K.
But altcoins are already getting uneasy.
ETH, XRP, and SOL are pulling back one after another, and market sentiment is clearly weaker than BTC.
It's like:
The homeroom teacher says, "This exam is a bit tough."
BTC: "Got it."
Altcoins: "It's over, it's over, it's over! Are we retaking the exam?!"
😂
But at times like this, you can't just look at who fell the most.
What really matters is whether there's support after the drop.
If BTC continues to hold around 84K, ETH starts climbing back to 2700, and XRP and SOL narrow their losses, it means investor sentiment might be recovering.
If BTC suddenly breaks below 84K and altcoins keep dropping with volume, that's a different story.
So my observation order today is simple:
First, see if BTC holds steady.
Then see if ETH can get back to 2700.
Finally, check if funds are returning to altcoins.
Because a real market rally usually doesn't happen with all coins shouting "Charge" together.
Instead:
BTC stabilizes first, ETH follows, and only then does capital start spreading to altcoins.
It's not time to get excited yet.
But there's no need to start writing doomsday stories just because of a few red candles.
After all, yesterday people were still shouting:
"See you at 100K!"
Today it's already:
"Bro, do you think 80K still has a chance?"
😂
The biggest technical indicator in crypto: retail investor sentiment.Fed hawkishness + whale dumping, but this data reveals the truth
This morning's bad news is intense: Fed's Bullard confirmed hawkishness early this morning, and a certain whale transferred 42,000 ETH (about $112 million) to Galaxy Digital intending to sell.
Normally, this should trigger panic selling. But look at my two screenshots, the truth is somewhat counterintuitive:
First (funding rate): The current funding rate is only 0.00099%, annualized 1.08%, with longs paying shorts. What does this indicate? Leveraged longs are extremely restrained, not aggressively adding leverage to chase higher prices. A truly dangerous top usually has a funding rate above 0.05%. This mild bearish state shows the market is undergoing healthy rotation, not overheating at the top.
Second (BTC technicals):
Current price 84,439, yesterday's low dipped to 83,439, just supported above EMA144 (83,103). The 1-hour J value recovered from -0.5 yesterday to 89.8, short-term oversold conditions have been fully digested. Resistance above at 87,500, strong support below at 83,000-84,000.
My judgment: The whale's selling is profit-taking, not a trend reversal. As long as 83,000-84,000 holds, the pullback is an opportunity to build spot positions in batches.
My live trading discipline: No panic selling, no chasing longs on rebounds. The grid continues to oscillate and confirm before restarting; no breaking support, no wavering.
Do you think this hawkish speech will be digested by the market? $BTC $ETH $BTC hit $87,300 twice in a row—are the sell orders really strong, or are the bulls not done yet?
BTC surged from around $75,000 to $87,000, but it failed to break past $87,300 twice consecutively. It looks like a resistance level, but what’s more worth pondering now is whether the money behind this rally is solid enough.
On one hand, spot ETFs are aggressively absorbing funds again, with nearly $1 billion net inflow on September 21 and $433 million on September 18; on the other hand, after BTC reached near $87,000 and then pulled back, Coinbase spot premium remains negative, indicating that native US spot buying isn’t particularly fierce.
The price rose quickly, and ETF funds have arrived, but among the factors driving the market, short-covering and derivatives still play a significant role. The previous rally even liquidated about $650 million worth of shorts.
What I’m more concerned about now is $87,300—if it can hold with strong volume, this rally can be said to have absorbed the resistance; if it fails to break through twice again, it actually means the sell orders above haven’t been fully digested yet. 🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H Structure Observation
The market is entering a critical phase of "trend confirmation vs. local strength." 👀
₿ BTC: around $84.4K
Responsible for defining the overall market direction, after a short-term pullback from the $87.2K high, focus on whether the $83.5K–$84K area can hold steady.
🔵 ETH: around $2.67K
Needs to regain and hold near $2.75K to prove that capital breadth is following BTC's diffusion.
🟢 ZEC: High Beta Indicator
Recently, ZEC has seen a clear increase in capital attention. The Zcash ETF attracted about $98.2M inflow last week, showing that high Beta assets still have capital participation.
🔥 The most important now is not a single candlestick, but three simultaneous factors: Price ↑ + Volume ↑ + OI structure healthy
→ 🚀 Trend expansion signal strengthens
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC follow
→ 📈 Market breadth improves
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC start to lag
→ ⚠️ Might be just local strength, risk of chasing highs increases
Additionally, the latest capital flow is still worth noting: The US spot BTC ETF has had net inflows for 4 consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.3B; on September 22 alone, BTC ETF inflow was about $714.7M, ETH ETF about Today, the crypto world is just like a company weekly meeting: the boss stays silent, and the people below start running away first. 😂
BTC is still hovering around 84K.
No crash.
No takeoff.
Just like:
"Don’t rush me, I’m thinking."
Then looking at ETH, XRP, SOL, their volatility is clearly bigger than BTC’s.
That’s very real.
When BTC frowns,
altcoins immediately start writing their resignation letters.
😂
But what’s most worth watching on the market now isn’t a few points dropping.
It’s whether funds are starting to reconcentrate into BTC.
If BTC continues to hold steady, and altcoin losses gradually narrow, it means panic might be digesting.
If BTC moves, and altcoins keep collectively plunging, it means risk appetite hasn’t returned yet.
So I’m not guessing "whether the bull market is over" now.
I’m just watching:
Can BTC reclaim 86K?
If it can, market sentiment will feel noticeably better.
If it then recovers 87K, the previous spike and pullback can be considered truly repaired.
Conversely, if 84K continues to break down, don’t be stubborn.
The market has already told you:
"I’m not ready to keep rising yet."
Recently, the crypto world is especially like a romance:
When it rises:
"We definitely have a future."
When it falls:
"Actually, we’re still friends."
😂
So don’t get carried away by a day’s red and green charts.
How the price moves and how funds flow are what really matter today.
I’ll keep watching the market.
Will update if there’s any change.$BTC 🔥
BTC anchors liquidity. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta participation.
Price + volume + OI must align for stronger confirmation.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC confirm Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC diverge Narrow Strength#BTC87KCryptoCap3T #FedOfficialsDebateHikes #USIranTalksProgress The strangest thing is not that BTC fell, but that XRP suddenly feels much worse than Bitcoin.
Today BTC dropped about 1.8%, ETH about 2.3%, but XRP once fell over 4%.
What does this mean?
At least it shows that the money is not evenly distributed among all coins.
A few days ago, BTC surged above 87K, and ETH once approached 2800.
At that time, market sentiment was more and more excited:
"The bull market is back!"
But two days later:
BTC pulled back,
ETH corrected,
XRP directly accelerated.
😂
So now what’s really worth watching is not who shouts the loudest about the bull market.
But:
Who falls the least, who stops falling first, who can recover key positions the fastest.
BTC is now looking around 84K.
ETH is focusing on whether it can stabilize again near 2700.
XRP needs to see if the previous support area can hold.
If BTC stabilizes first, ETH recovers afterward, and XRP starts to narrow its decline, then market risk appetite may be returning.
Conversely, if BTC continues to weaken, and ETH and XRP continue to widen their declines, it means funds are still contracting.
So don’t start cursing the market just because you see red numbers.
The real opportunity sometimes isn’t when prices rise the most, but when market divergence just begins to appear.
Today I’m watching these three:
BTC for direction, ETH for sentiment, XRP for whether funds have returned.
As for 100K?
Let’s get through today first. OKX #7, ATS official ranking #33: 90-day profit of 108.90%, why isn't it ranked similarly at the top?
In today's public data, maomao12345 is a very typical contrasting example.
OKX current ranking is #7; ATS official ranking is #33. The 90-day cumulative return rate is 108.90%, but calculated by the same public return sequence, the 90-day maximum drawdown is 34.05%, with a total of 91 observation points.
This is the reason why the two ranking systems diverge: return rate is very important, but it does not tell the whole story of how much volatility a path has experienced.
His public copy trading duration is 1088 days; ATS is 46.88, status FORMAL, credibility HIGH.
There is also a public field that needs to be read cautiously: OKX reports the current aggregate profit and loss of followers as -153,470.63 USDT.
I would not conclude from this that "the trader profits while all followers lose." This field does not disclose a fixed historical window, nor can it be extrapolated to those who have stopped following; it only indicates that the trader's own returns and the current followers' results cannot be combined into one conclusion.
Therefore, what is worth studying in this data set is not "who is right or wrong," but: when a high return is accompanied by a 34.05% drawdown, should rankings consider only returns, or also the path?
This article is based solely on OKX public data for trader behavior research and does not constitute investment advice.Agent evaluation is no longer just a scorecard. It is becoming part of the systems operating layer.
A judge can reject an answer, a trace can reconstruct a call, and a dashboard can expose latency, failure, and drift. But these signals do not reveal the full cost of being wrong.
The more important question is: **what did the error affect?**
Did it rewrite memory, redirect a task, alter a policy, spend resources, influence future training, or damage another agent’s reputation?
$HETU #hetuprotocol₿ Does Satoshi really own 1.1 million $BTC ?
The famous 1.1M BTC figure isn’t actually proven.
Researchers can trace roughly 900K-1.17M BTC to the early mining fingerprint known as the Patoshi Pattern.
The interesting part: we still don’t have cryptographic proof that Patoshi was Satoshi Nakamoto.
So one of Bitcoin’s biggest “facts” is still technically an estimate.BTC is still hovering around 84K, but ETH has quietly started to steal the spotlight.
Many people have been focusing only on Bitcoin these past couple of days.
But I actually think ETH might be more interesting than BTC going forward.
The reason is simple:
After BTC dropped from 87K, its main task now is to stabilize.
Meanwhile, ETH has retraced from around $2780 down to about $2670.
What the market really needs to watch now is:
Can ETH reclaim 2700?
If 2700 is retaken, and BTC simultaneously holds steady around 84K, then capital might start looking for assets with greater volatility again.
Conversely, if ETH can’t get back above 2700 and BTC continues downward, altcoins might face continued pressure.
So now when I watch the market, I don’t just look at BTC.
BTC shows the direction.
ETH reflects risk appetite.
XRP, SOL, and others indicate whether capital is starting to spread out.
😂
It’s like a company meeting:
BTC is the boss,
ETH is the vice president,
Altcoins are the sales department.
When the boss is silent,
you watch if the vice president and sales start moving secretly.
If ETH moves first, market sentiment usually won’t stay this cold for long.
Next, watch 2700.
If it holds, the story continues.
If not, just keep waiting.
Don’t rush to chase; the market will always give a second chance.震荡偏博弈的阶段，别急着追。 BTC和ETH今天冲高没过昨天高点，ETF资金又在流出，这个组合你嗅到了什么？ 我自己看盘时先注意到的是节奏变了。昨天BTC几次下探75000都被快速拉回，ETH在2715同样被接住，说明这两个位置暂时有承接。但今天反弹连昨日高点都没摸到，配合ETF净流出，短线更像是洗筹和挤压并存的阶段，而不是单边追涨的窗口。 从衍生品视角看，这种结构下最怕的是资金费率还偏正、持仓没明显出清。价格上不去但多头没认输，就容易出现两种走法。一种是支撑继续守住，空头挤压把价格推回区间上沿，情绪修复后山寨跟着喘口气。另一种是75000和2715被有效跌破，触发止损链条，杠杆多头被迫平仓，跌势会加速，山寨的beta会放大这种痛感。 偏多的逻辑在于，75000和2715已经证明有资金愿意接，ETF流出如果放缓，BTC稳住后ETH和优质山寨会有补涨窗口。风险则在于，反弹乏力加资金外流，说明风险偏好还在收缩，这时候追高容易被挂在半山腰。我自己的处理方式是，跌破支撑继续持有观察，但如果假突破后迅速被打回来，就先离场处理，不跟市场犟。 接下来重点盯三个信号：ETF流向有没有转向、资金费率是否#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货
CME includes BCH and UNI in its futures list, with UNI having far greater significance than BCH. BCH is an old Bitcoin fork, well known to institutions; UNI is different—this is CME's first time incorporating a DeFi governance token into a regulated derivatives system. It signifies that the concept of "on-chain protocol equity" is beginning to be priced by traditional finance.
CME announced plans to launch BCH and UNI futures on October 19, pending CFTC approval. BCH standard contracts are 250 units, micro contracts 25 units; UNI standard contracts 10,000 units, micro contracts 1,000 units, all cash-settled in USD. BCH is CME's 10th single-asset crypto future, UNI is the 11th.
Market reaction was intense. After the announcement, UNI surged about 5% within minutes, rising 61.9% over 7 days to surpass $10. BCH rose nearly 23% in a single day, up 58.3% over 7 days to $344, with market cap reaching $6.9 billion. CME's average daily crypto futures volume in the first half of the year was 279,800 contracts, with a notional value of $8.3 billion; altcoin products have reached a cumulative notional value exceeding $1 billion this year.
UNI entering CME is equivalent to issuing a "priceable by institutions" admission ticket for DeFi governance tokens. However, CME futures are cash-settled; institutions buy price exposure, not the tokens themselves. The short-term rise is a "narrative premium," and whether institutions are willing to hedge here is the touchstone for UNI's transformation from a "DeFi token" to a "configurable asset." The strangest thing happened: BTC only dropped 2%, but altcoins have already started a collective plunge.
Right now BTC is around 84.5K, down about 2% in 24 hours.
Looks like nothing much.
But take a closer look:
ETH -2.8%
XRP -5.5%
SOL -3%
DOGE -7.7%
This is no simple “BTC pullback.”
It’s more like:
BTC is catching its breath, and altcoins have already thrown away their oxygen tanks. 😂
Yesterday BTC surged above 87K, today it’s back near 84K.
So what’s really worth watching next isn’t “when will 100K arrive.”
It’s one question:
Around 84K, is there anyone willing to catch the fall?
If BTC holds around 84K and ETH, XRP start to stop falling, it means market sentiment might be recovering.
But if BTC continues to break below 84K and altcoins keep accelerating their drop, it means the market isn’t done falling yet.
Right now I’m watching three levels:
84K: defense.
86K: recovery.
87K: breakout.
Don’t forget, recently there’s still significant inflow into the US spot BTC ETF, so a price pullback doesn’t mean all funds have exited.
So here’s the most interesting part:
If BTC stabilizes first, who will be the first to rebound?
ETH?
XRP?
Or some altcoin that everyone has been criticizing for two days?
😂
Before the market really kicks off, no one usually knows the answer.
First, watch how the funds move.BTC hasn't fallen below 84K yet, but altcoins have already started to jump ahead.
Currently, BTC is around 84.5K, down about 2% in 24 hours; but ETH is around $2,665, XRP about $1.49, DOGE about $0.092, with significantly larger declines.
This is quite interesting.
BTC is just pulling back, but altcoins have already started "writing their wills early."
😂
Yesterday BTC surged above 87K but couldn't hold, with the 24-hour high and low points spreading nearly $3,700 apart.
Now the most important level is not 87K.
It's:
Whether there is real buying near 84K.
Because if BTC can hold around 84K and altcoins continue to stop falling, it indicates that market risk appetite might be starting to recover.
But if BTC breaks below 84K, and ETH and XRP continue to widen their losses, then be cautious that this retracement is not over yet.
I'm watching three levels now:
84K: short-term defense.
86K: first recovery level.
87K: previous high resistance.
Don't forget, on Tuesday, the US spot BTC ETF still recorded a net inflow of about $715 million, indicating that a price pullback does not mean funds have completely withdrawn.
So this market situation looks especially like:
BTC:
"I'm not dead yet."
Altcoins:
"Bro, you're not dead, I'll lie down for a bit first."
😂
What really matters today is not who shouts the loudest.
It's whether, after BTC stabilizes, funds will go back to ETH and altcoins.Today $BTC broke downwards, and the comment section is full of people tagging me "Short God YYDS, I told you so." Let me pour some cold water first: I have been mostly empty-handed these past two days, and one bearish candle doesn't prove I'm "right."
The most misleading mindset in trading is "resultism" — if you win, you think you're a god; if you lose, you blame bad luck. But in the same drop, those who judged correctly but didn't enter a position, and those who blindly shorted and got lucky, are looking at the same candle, yet their skill levels differ by miles.
My bearish view on $BTC is based on interest rates and macro factors, not just because it dropped today. If those reasons change, I'll immediately change my stance and won't stubbornly hold on for "face."
When reviewing trades, are you focusing on the profit and loss numbers, or looking back to see if the original decision itself was correct?BTC only dropped 2%, but altcoins have already started to collectively "play dead."
Right now BTC is around 84.5K, down about 2% in 24 hours.
Looks like no big deal.
But take a closer look:
ETH -2.8%
XRP -5.5%
SOL -3%
DOGE -7.7%.
Now that's interesting.
BTC's drop isn't severe, yet risk appetite has clearly cooled off.
So today, I'm not in a hurry to see if BTC can get back to 87K.
I'm more interested in:
When altcoins will stop catching down.
If BTC stabilizes around 84K, and ETH, XRP, SOL start narrowing their losses, it indicates the market might be repricing.
But if BTC keeps falling and altcoins accelerate their decline, then it's not just a BTC pullback.
Key levels now:
84K: short-term defense.
86K: first recovery point.
87K: reopening upward potential.
Recently, BTC spot ETF funds have also shown clear buying again, with a net inflow of about $1.3 billion over the past 5 days.
So it really feels like:
BTC:
"I only dropped 2%, is it really necessary for you all to react this way?"
Altcoins:
"Bro, you hold steady first, I really can't take it anymore." 😂
Today, don't just focus on BTC.
What really matters is, after BTC stabilizes, whether funds will flow back into ETH and altcoins.
Where the money goes often signals issues earlier than price moves.The market dropped 3%, which of these four small coins is quietly being picked up by funds?
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？
Bitcoin dropped 2.66%, but surprisingly, someone is quietly picking up these four small coins. Let's talk about each one.
$HYPE is around 93.75, down only 1.18%. Hyperliquid is a decentralized exchange with 97% of protocol revenue used for buybacks. While the market dropped 3%, it only fell 1.18%, making it the most resilient among small coins. It had previously pulled back from its high, but with real revenue support, buyers step in when it falls. 90 is the critical support level; holding it means there’s still a chance.
$BICO is around 0.0214, down 4.42%. Biconomy Token focuses on account abstraction. The market dropped 3%, but it fell 4%, weaker than the market. The sector is decent but lacks funding support, completely sidelined and just watching the show. Wait for the leader’s spillover before making a move.
$BEAT is around 0.08801, up 3.82%. Audiera is a micro-market speculative coin. It has dropped 99% from its high, yet today it rose 3.82%. Such speculative coins are risky—big rises come with big falls. Bet only a very small position.
$RE is around 0.452, down only 1.18%. A DeFi insurance small RWA with a market cap of 71 million and daily volume of 5 million. While the market dropped 3%, it only fell 1%, the thinnest market but the most resistant. Holding 0.45 is still okay.
HYPE at 93 is resistant, BICO at 0.021 is weaker than the market, BEAT at 0.088 is a speculative coin rebounding, RE at 0.45 is resistant—four small coins in four different states, don’t chase the highs. $BTC
Now predicting several possible scenarios ahead:
Which one do you think it will be?
Scenario One
40% probability: BTC starts to fall from my sell position at 86789.
It's already very high here,
The highest point of the last bull market was October 6, 2025,
This time it has risen to 87.4k,
Already back to the level of November 20, 2025,
Only about a month away from the bull market peak.
The realized profit rate of short-term holders
has already reached the level of the bull market peak in October 2025,
There is strong selling pressure demand.
Scenario Two
30% probability: Sideways instead of falling,
Although it is already a high point,
Too many people missed the opportunity, so it can't fall,
Or it might drop 2~3k as a gesture,
Then move sideways for a while,
To digest the currently too high "realized profit rate of short-term holders."
In this case, I will find a position to take profit on short positions,
And continue to be fully invested in ETH spot waiting for a rise.
Scenario Three
20% probability: Continue to rise to 88~90k,
Then start to fall,
Initiating a major correction of tens of thousands of dollars.
So I only shorted 50% of my BTC position at 86789,
Plan to short 25% more at 88~89k,
And the last 25% at 89~90k.
Scenario Four
10% probability: Keep rising after 90k,
As I said before:
For the possible scenarios that may occur,
You need to be mentally prepared. Global expectations for high interest rates are heating up again, risk appetite is under pressure, and UNI is hard to remain unaffected. I tend to believe this is a secondary dip after a rebound rather than a trend reversal. After a 10.2% plunge in 24 hours, the price is at 9.256. Although the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are still turning upward, it has fallen more than 13% from the high, and short-term momentum is clearly exhausted. The buy-sell ratio in the top 10 order book levels is 0.88, with selling pressure slightly dominant. The funding rate of -0.0023% indicates that bearish sentiment is not strong. 9.028 is the key support; if broken, look to 8.685. On the upside, 10.95 is a strong resistance, and before breaking through, treat it as a range-bound. In terms of operation, lightly test long positions on a pullback to 9.055, with a stop loss at 8.845 and a target of 9.885. If volume increases and it stabilizes above 10.215, you can add to your position, moving the stop loss up, with total positions not exceeding 30%.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$UNI #How far can gold go under high interest rates?
#Global expectations for high interest rates are heating up again $UNI BTC ripped to $87K, then slammed back toward $83K. That’s not a clean trend — that’s volatility hunting leverage. Late longs got trapped, and the market may need more back-and-forth before choosing its next direction. $SOL also dropped to ~$113. Another $3 lower is nothing in this environment. ⚠️ When the structure is unclear, forcing a long is gambling. My move: stay liquid, let the volatility settle, then strike. #BTC冲高$87000 #CryptoBTC just surged past 87K and then plunged, now it's pretending nothing happened.
Yesterday it peaked at $87,283, then dropped all the way down to $83,546, nearly a $4,000 swing in one day. Today it's hovering around 84K again.
This situation is a bit like:
The boss just said, "Bonuses will double this year,"
The next day HR knocks on your door:
"Come to the office."
😂
But this drop can't be judged by candlesticks alone.
Yesterday, US economic data was clearly strong, causing the market to worry again about inflation and interest rate pressures. US Treasury yields rose, and BTC quickly fell back from above 87K.
Plus, there's a large BTC options expiry on Friday, about $14 billion in size, so short-term volatility might not be over yet.
So now I'm only watching:
84K: Can it hold?
87K: Can it be reclaimed?
83K: If it breaks, we need to reassess the pullback.
The funniest part is:
At 87K yesterday, the comment section was already planning to "renovate a 100K house."
At 84K today, the renovation crew has already run away.
😂
But the market doesn't need to follow emotions.
What BTC really needs to prove now is whether there is buying support after the drop.
If it stabilizes around 84K and then recovers back above 86K, the meaning of yesterday's plunge will be completely different.
Don't rush to write BTC's ending yet.
This drama isn't over.$BTC short-term holders realized profit is now at its highest level since the October 2025 top.
Not calling for a 50% crash, but there's a decent chance of correction in the coming weeks.Let me teach you how to read down from an inconspicuous piece of news. TSMC is about to raise its wafer foundry prices again, by about 3% to 6%—sounds like a semiconductor industry issue, right? But looking deeper: almost all AI chips worldwide come from them. When they raise prices, Nvidia's prices go up, server costs go up, and ultimately every AI bill bears the burden.
These days, the crypto world has been riding the AI tailwind upwards, but now this AI machine itself is becoming a new source of inflation. Chip prices rising, top-tier companies issuing bonds with interest rates nearing 10%, oil prices back to 90—the inflation problem is far from contained.
For those shorting, this isn't bad news. The stronger the logic of high interest rates, the more solid the ceiling over $BTC. To break through further, inflation must be overcome first. Do you believe AI is a perpetual motion machine, or that this bill will have to be paid sooner or later? Yesterday people were still shouting 90K, today even 85K is starting to feel difficult.
BTC yesterday peaked at $87,283, finally closing near 84K; today it dipped to 83.5K during the session, now continuing to fluctuate around 84K.
What’s really interesting about this wave isn’t how much it fell.
But rather:
After the surge, has the buying returned?
From the market view, BTC is clearly not as strong as yesterday.
So next I will watch two moves:
First, watch 85K.
If it can reclaim and sustain above this, it means the low-level support is still there.
Then watch 86K–87K.
Only if this range is reclaimed can yesterday’s surge and pullback be truly considered repaired.
Conversely, if 84K repeatedly fails to hold and 83.5K is broken again, the short term will need to look for new support.
The funniest thing now is market sentiment:
Yesterday:
“Is BTC about to take off?”
Today:
“Is BTC about to crash?”
😂
Actually, the price just went back from 87K to 84K.
What really changed the most,
is not BTC, but everyone’s sentiment.
So today I’m not guessing tops or bottoms.
Just watching if the market gives signals.
If 85K is reclaimed, watch for repair; if 86K breaks through, watch strength or weakness; if 83.5K fails, watch for lower support.
Before the market moves out, all scenarios are just drafts.If Costco's earnings report exceeds expectations, the risk appetite recovery may drive a correlated rebound in CL, but the current technical outlook remains bearish, and I tend to be cautiously bearish. The 24h volatility exceeds 4%, with the price surging to 92.99 before falling back. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are trending downward, and the price has retraced 9.42% from the 4-hour high, indicating that short-term downward momentum has not yet exhausted. The funding rate returning to zero indicates that bulls are no longer paying fees, and the open interest of 429,000 contracts has not shown a significant reduction. Combined with the order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio of 0.90, sellers have 54,000 orders suppressing buyers' 48,000, making the rebound more likely a bull trap. The trading volume of 11.922 million shows liquidity is decent, but the volume-price combination is bearish. Strategically, lightly short near 92.35 on a rebound, with a stop loss at 93.15 and a target of 89.05; if volume increases and price stabilizes above 93.45, switch to a short-term long with a target of 95.85. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total capital, and exit immediately if it falls below 88.75.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$CL#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#OKX预言家：好市多季度财报会超预期吗？ $CL The US Bitcoin ETF has once again pushed back the word "wait and see."
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $999 million on Monday, marking the largest single-day capital inflow since October 2025; BlackRock IBIT, Ark 21Shares ARKB, and Fidelity FBTC were the main recipients. BTC also rose above the ETF average cost line of approximately $81,722, meaning the average ETF holder is in profit again for the first time since January this year.
This usually leads to two observations: first, if institutional buying through this channel continues, the trend feedback after the spot breakout will be smoother; second, if the funds are just a one-day pulse, the selling pressure after the previous trapped positions are released could make the pullback more severe.
Which side are you more focused on: maintaining stability above $82,000, or first seeing a round of pullback for digestion? 🎯 I don't need to sell at the peak; I just want to increase the amount of BTC I hold.
The most common mistake when trading Altcoins is always thinking:
"I'll sell after it rises a bit more."
"There should be one last wave."
"Is it too early to sell now?"
The result is often bigger profits → stronger greed → and eventually giving all the profits back.
My goal is actually very simple:
💰 Not to perfectly time the highest point of Altcoins
₿ But to have more BTC after exiting than at the start.
The market is still in a high volatility phase. BTC previously broke above $87K, then fell back to around $84K; meanwhile, the US stock spot BTC ETF recorded about $999M net inflow on September 21, showing that capital demand remains noteworthy.
So going forward, I focus more on:
BTC strength → Altcoin rotation → capital flow → trading volume
Rather than fantasizing about perfectly selling at the highest price.
I'd rather:
"Sell a bit early, but have more BTC."
Than:
"Hold out for the top, only to end with zero profit."
🔥 Selling early is not failure.
What really matters is: after this cycle ends, you have more BTC than when you started.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Altcoins #Crypto #CryptoMarket #BTCAccumulation #Altseason If you play cards long enough, you'll understand a principle: when your opponent suddenly makes a move after losing several rounds in a row, that's precisely the time for you to raise, not to panic and leave the table.
$BTC was hammered down from 86,000 today, with the RSI on the 1-hour and 15-minute charts hitting extreme oversold levels, then bouncing back above 84,000. The comment section immediately split into two camps: one shouting "buy the dip on oversold," the other shouting "short on the breakdown." I don't side with either.
Chasing shorts naked in oversold conditions is like voluntarily putting your face out for the big players to jab needles into; what really comforts the bears is the first wave of rebound after a sharp drop that fails to hold and shows waning momentum. So I'd rather wait for the rebound, wait for it to show weakness before considering action, and never short $BTC naked when the RSI is flat on the floor.
The core of low-frequency, large bets is never speed, but patiently waiting for that one card. Are you hot-tempered, or can you sit tight? The big options test on Friday is approaching, and my ETH short position is hanging by a thread
This Friday, $18.1 billion worth of BTC and ETH options will expire, and the timing is really nerve-wracking. My ETH short is still down over 130%. I was hoping for a drop before the weekend, but BTC is stuck around 86000, and ETH is sluggish near 2760. The market seems to be deliberately working against me.
What’s more frustrating is that CME just announced BCH and UNI futures launching in October, clearly accelerating institutional adoption. That’s bullish in the long term, but for me shorting, the deeper institutions get involved, the harder it is for the market to drop sharply—they’re long-term holders, not short-term dumpers.
Now the whole market is watching Friday’s options expiration. Historical experience shows there’s usually volatility around big expirations—either a pump or a dump. The current put/call ratio is 0.61, indicating bullish sentiment is dominant. By this logic, there’s a high chance of a rally? That makes my short position even more dangerous.
With 100x leverage, even a small rise could liquidate me; a drop is the only way to catch a breather. Counting down the days every day, I don’t know if I’ll survive until options expiration or if the options will take me out first. Friday, please come quickly.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ On an autumn night in New York, the wind finally carried a hint of chill. Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi closed their doors and chatted for three hours. Trump casually remarked "productive" on social media, and the crude oil market immediately plummeted like a deflated balloon. Over the years, I've seen too many so-called "diplomatic breakthroughs"—politicians shook hands over coffee, but under the table were all gleaming chips. Lifting maritime blockades, unfreezing restricted assets, and navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz—none of these are bloody bones. There isn't even a shadow of a ceasefire agreement; the sword of Damocles of military action still hangs high, but in the eyes of financial markets, even the slightest illusion of respite causes safe haven funds to retreat like a tide. Watching crude oil fall, I can't help but think of the subtle gap between traditional risk assets and new hedge targets. Once the Middle East's spark is suppressed, the alarm about inflation expectations is temporarily dispelled, which seems like a shot in the arm for US tech stocks. Look at the $xDELL movement of the neighboring US tokenization stock: as the core hardware asset supporting enterprise-level AI server infrastructure, funds are seeking certain growth amid cooling geopolitical tensions. Unlike Nvidia's surge, Dell represents a more steady logic for industrial implementation. But don't forget, when oil prices fall and the market rebounds, liquidity in the crypto market is diverting. The current macro chessboard is too complex. Gold is consolidating at high levels, BTC and Nasdaq intermittently linkLet's talk about an account outside the crypto circle that directly determines the price ceiling of cryptocurrencies. SoftBank is issuing $10 billion in bonds tonight, with a 9.25% coupon rate maturing in 2032 and a 9.75% coupon rate maturing in 2034. What kind of company is SoftBank? Even it has to pay over 9% to borrow money, which reflects the real cost of "money" right now.
Many people watch $BTC's candlestick charts every day but forget the invisible hand behind it—the interest rate. When risk-free returns are approaching 5% and high-quality companies are issuing bonds with rates near 10%, why would anyone expect people to put money into non-yielding risky assets? This isn't bearish sentiment toward anyone; it's the clear cost of capital staring us in the face.
I've always said that shorting $BTC requires macro conditions to hand you the bullets, and tonight that box of bullets is called "money is expensive." Do you think this round of interest rates is about to peak, or is it just starting to bite?BTC dropped from 87000 to 83450 last night. Can we bottom-fish now?
Yesterday, it was said that chasing near 86000 wasn’t suitable; for a steady swing trade, it’s best to wait for a pullback.
But last night it really dropped, from above 87000 all the way down to 83450, then rebounded back to around 84500 this morning.
I guess many friends are now hesitating: didn’t chase yesterday, now it’s dropped, can we catch it?
My view is: we can observe the rebound here, but it’s too early to confirm the bottom.
Today, I’m focusing on three key levels.
First, 84000–84500.
This is the first observation zone currently. If the price can hold here and then climb back above 85000, I would consider testing the rebound with a small position, rather than going all in to bottom-fish now.
Second, 85000–85500.
This is the resistance the rebound must face today. If it can’t break through here soon, the current rise might just be a retracement after the drop, and we shouldn’t rush to conclude the correction is over.
Third, 83000–83500.
If it pulls back again today, I will closely watch if a second bottom can form here.
If 83450 is effectively broken down and the rebound fails to recover, don’t rush to catch it; instead, pay attention to around 82000 below.
$BTC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #AMD market cap surpasses $1 trillion, chip stocks rally collectively, risk appetite recovery drives high-beta stocks like SLX to strengthen in the short term, but I judge this more as an emotion-driven rebound, caution advised when chasing highs. From the capital perspective, the fee rate is only 0.0050%, bulls are not overheated, positions at 30,888,000 coin-based, shorts still competing. After a 24h rise of 5.5%, current price is 0.07265, down 3.13% from the 1h high, but up 15.32% from the low, short-term upward structure intact; 4h still in a descending channel, 3.20% below the high. The top 10 buy-sell ratio is 2.10, with 7,369 buy orders versus 3,508 sell orders, buyers clearly dominant, turnover of 17,323,000 indicates incremental funds entering. Light long positions can be taken on a pullback to 0.07085, stop loss at 0.06835, target 0.07795; if it rallies to around 0.07815 and stalls, reduce positions, keep holdings under 20%.
——This is only a personal opinion, not investment advice, wishing smooth trading.——
$SLX#BTC rallies to $87,000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
#AMD market cap surpasses $1 trillion, chip stocks rally collectively $SLX Costco's earnings report is out tonight, Micron's is the finale at the end of the month, this week's earnings season looks promising 💪
First, Costco $COST will release its Q4 earnings after the US market closes tonight, with a conference call at 5 PM.
The expected EPS is between $6.55 and $6.66. But the focus isn't on that; it's on the sales data already announced on September 2: Q4 net sales rose 11.3% to $93.9 billion. This growth rate is quite strong in retail.
Also, the effect of the membership fee increase is still unfolding, and the number of members is key. UBS still has a buy rating with a target price of $1275. For a stock like Costco, the market never focuses on single-quarter numbers but on membership renewal rates and same-store sales growth.
Next, Micron $MU, the semiconductor heavyweight, reports after the market closes on September 30.
The market expects Q4 revenue of $51.1 billion and EPS of $31.47. Last quarter (Q3) was already a record, with revenue of $41.46 billion, a gross margin of 84.9%, and HBM4 shipments exceeding $1 billion.
This time, there are two key things to watch:
First, the ramp-up of HBM4 production capacity. Micron plans to increase monthly HBM capacity by 60,000 units by year-end, reaching about 100,000 units. But Samsung and SK Hynix each have 150,000 to 200,000 units. The gap remains, and whether it can be narrowed is critical.
Second, whether memory prices can hold. Currently, the entire industry has DRAM inventory below target levels, NAND is continuously declining, and prices have been rising. But Nvidia's Rubin generation is already reducing HBM usage, indicating prices are too high and downstream demand is starting to falter.
So, Micron's earnings will likely look good, but what really determines the stock price is management's guidance for 2027—how long the price increase cycle can continue.
Costco reflects consumer resilience, Micron reflects AI computing demand—two directions. If you hold these two stocks, think carefully about what you're betting on before earnings.
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Another big player has fallen, with Ethereum liquidations reaching $10 million
Just checked the latest data, in the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $545 million liquidated, with 126,870 people liquidated.
Long position liquidations: $444 million
Short position liquidations: $101 million
Longs are 4.4 times the shorts; last night’s rapid drop cleared high-leverage positions in the market. The largest single Ethereum $ETH liquidation was $10 million.
The main reason for last night’s drop, according to news, is the uncertainty in the Persian Gulf and the resurgence of rate hike expectations.
Another important observation: when social media is flooded with various profit-taking posts, danger may already be here. That was the case yesterday, and I already felt the short-term risk.
But seeing how far we are from the goal, the gap is as high as Mount Everest; next time remember to trust yourself and retreat immediately if something feels off.
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？