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$BTC 9.25 Bitcoin Trend Analysis
The 5th wave of Bitcoin's first upward move tends to be unfinished and will not crash directly.
The 5th wave will form a terminating wedge pattern, causing back-and-forth battles between bulls and bears.
After the MACD golden cross on the 15-day line, only two candlesticks have appeared, so the possibility of a direct downturn is low; usually, weakness appears around the third or fourth candlestick.
Risk Warning: This is only an analysis of market structure and does not constitute any trading advice Crypto has evolved from a "scam" to something that ordinary people can really use and understand.
This is a huge advancement for the crypto industry!
In the early days, 90% of projects were just air, but now on-chain brokerages, stablecoin payments, RWA, and prediction markets all have real users.
However, usable and profitable are still two different things.
Industry maturity means a "lower zeroing rate," not "blindly buying and everything goes up."
The risk of meme coins remains huge, for example $LAPTOP Costco's Q4 sales report came early: net sales of 93.9 billion, up 11.3% year-over-year, comparable sales up 9.4%, and after excluding oil prices and exchange rates, still up 6.7%. No matter how noisy the chatter about chicken legs and daily necessities is, it's just background noise.
There are really only two key questions: Is the membership renewal rate still around 92%, and has the gross margin been eroded by e-commerce and delivery? About 145 million cards stacked with membership fees almost cover half of the operating profit, yet the stock price still trades at a 45x valuation, and option volatility has clearly risen — the ordinary beats on expectations have long been bought in, so don't expect sales to bring more surprises.
This isn't retail gossip; it's a test of the American wallet and the interest rate cut faucet. If renewal and gross margin don't hold up, the soft landing story loosens; the first reaction is not to chase. Wipe #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 LTC surged 16% in one day: Bitcoin is lying still, so what makes it fly against the trend?
On September 25, 2026, Bitcoin was still hovering around 84,000, ETH was lifeless, and most major coins showed no signs of improvement.
But Litecoin rose 16.35%, reaching $71.96.
Within 24 hours, nearly $5 million worth of LTC positions were liquidated, with trading volume hitting $2.2 billion, a 144% increase. The price broke through $74, marking the highest since January this year. The cumulative increase in September was about 41%, the strongest single-month performance since November 2024.
The entire market is asking the same question: "Why LTC?"
Even CoinDesk candidly admitted in its market summary on September 24: "The exact reason for LTC's outperformance is currently unknown."
But unknown does not mean nonexistent. Today's article will break it down line by line. $LTC $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Quarterly Options Settlement Day! The "Life-or-Death Trial" for Retail Traders?
Today is September 25, the quarterly options settlement day. BTC fluctuated above 84,000 in the early session. This is an extremely dangerous moment; the market will likely undergo intense shakeouts for options settlement, causing both longs and shorts to be liquidated.
Key Market Judgment:
Options settlement days usually gravitate toward the "maximum pain point." Currently, BTC faces resistance at 85,000-85,500 above and strong support at 82,800-83,000 below. Avoid blindly chasing gains or panic selling in the early session; the main players are very likely to use the settlement to create fake breakouts or false breakdowns.
My Current Live Position:
After surviving the past few days, my account's floating loss narrowed last night. The SOL grid is slightly in the green, and the ETH grid's profits are close to breaking even. This morning, I’m deeply involved again!
In the past 24 hours, I haven’t added a penny in margin nor manually cut any orders; the grid system has been holding firm on its own.
Today's Strategy:
1. Absolutely no heavy bets on direction. Settlement day markets are extremely hard to predict.
2. If BTC doesn’t break key levels, keep running the grid; if there’s a volume-driven breakdown or breakout, manually close positions to cut losses and protect principal.
3. Endure today, as liquidity dries up over the weekend; wait for stabilization next week before re-engaging.
Most retail traders have small capital, but trading discipline is essential. In crypto, surviving every market day is more important than anything else. How do you plan to handle today? $BTC $ETH 这场最该防的，不是错过一根拉升，而是把来回洗盘误读成趋势。@阿懿.Bit 的核心判断很明确：当前盘面先按震荡看，别在区间中间追多追空；$BTC 要盯82k附近能否守住，$ETH 则要看2700能否被有效站稳。关键位没有确认前，所谓方向感很容易只是下一次双向收割的前奏。 他先解释了为什么当晚不愿意追BTC。盘面一度出现放量上冲，但随后又被一根大阴线吞回，说明上冲后的承接并不干净。这样的K线组合在他看来不是可以加速押方向的信号，反而提示行情可能进入更大级别的整理。此前的84,200—84,500一带是他曾观察过的短线区域；但当价格反复拉扯、止损已经给过容错后，再硬做左侧，只会把原本可控的一笔交易变成情绪单。 放到更大框架里，他把BTC的82k附近视作日线级别的重要多空分水岭。这里既是此前结构里被反复观察的支撑区，也是后续判断“突破是否被市场接受”的位置。如果价格只是短暂刺破、随后迅速收回，空头延续便没有得到确认；如果跌破后反抽站不回去，支撑转压力的剧本才会更可信，届时才有理由继续讨论周线级别二次探顶后的回撤，76k只是他用于描述下方第一参考区的条件化目标，并非已经兑现的结论。 反过来，若B2026-09-25 Planet Daily Update｜Pre-market Must-Read_Short Post
【Pre-market Must-Read #3｜09-25】
Market breadth 4.88, temperature is spring.
Not many opportunities to act on, I pick selectively.
Today scanned 200 coins. Only 15 passed the gate.
Temperature is spring, BTC weekly is still bullish, breadth 4.88.
Here are the 5 with the highest probability:
HOOD｜Probability 79.4｜🚀Chase on the spot｜Entry 121.1｜+5.5% from 26-week high
ZEC｜Probability 76.6｜🚀Chase on the spot｜Entry 1553.0｜+3.0% from 26-week high
LINK｜Probability 76.3｜🚀Chase on the spot｜Entry 13.33｜+2.6% from 26-week high
HYPE｜Probability 71.0｜🚀Chase on the spot｜Entry 92.0｜+2.8% from 26-week high
BNB｜Probability 70.2｜🅾️Wait for breakout｜Entry 781.9｜+0.5% from 26-week high
Entry points are given by the system, verified one by one afterward.
Stop-loss points are a matter of position management — will explain separately next time.
Who to analyze tomorrow? RAY, ZEC, ARB — comment the name, the one with the most votes.
(Parameters and weights are not disclosed, not investment advice.)$BTC ▍🔴 BTC Quick Report: Bottomed at 82,900 and rebounded, today's options expiration will decide the fate
Current price near 84,400, flat in 24h. After dipping to 82,832 yesterday, it narrowed into a doji; this morning it returned to the 84,400-84,600 range. After a 5% pullback over three days, support was found around 82,900 — exactly at the upper edge of the breakout gap, bulls have not surrendered. But today, the last trading day before the 9/26 options expiration, contracts with a nominal size exceeding 10 billion will settle after the US market closes on Friday, with both bulls and bears playing their final cards.
▍📍 Key Levels
Below: 82,832 is the overnight low, 82,281 structural neckline, 80,000 baseline. Above: 84,915 is the 24h high, 85,300 is the resistance to flip bearish, followed by 86,000 and 87,400. Volatility window: US market open tonight + before options settlement.
▍🎯 Trading Plan
Entry: Buy on pullback to 82,900-83,300 first tier; conservatively wait for 81,000-82,300; chase on volume break above 85,300.
Targets: 85,300 → 86,000-87,400, if stable above, look to 90,000.
Stop loss: Unconditionally exit if daily close falls below 82,000, next support at 80,000.
▍⚠️ Macro headwind from 5.11% US Treasury yields persists, dollar index above 101. Extreme volatility on options expiration day, light positions and watching is also a strategy, position size 20-30%.
Not investment advice, trade at your own risk Brothers, I woke up to find Ethereum back near 2700!
The upward trend hasn't changed yet, $3000 feels closer and closer. For those shorting ETH, my palms are starting to sweat.
The most interesting thing is that retail investors are still redeeming from ETFs, while whales are frantically rotating their positions.
In the past 5 days, a whale sold 1107 $BTC, worth about $86.76 million, then bought 34,400 $ETH, worth about $86.5 million, and immediately staked all of it.
On one side, ETF funds are withdrawing; on the other, whales are locking up tokens to earn yield.
Now the ETH staking rate has risen to 35.56%, with about 2.48 million ETH queued for staking, waiting over 40 days, and almost no one is exiting the queue.
Retail investors watch the candlesticks, whales watch the yield.
Looking at the market, BTC is around 84000, ETH has reclaimed 2700, and ETH/BTC is challenging the long-term downtrend line.
So, brothers shorting, be careful not to overleverage your positions.
If ETH can hold near 2600, $3000 is not impossible.
Of course, ETF outflows still indicate short-term capital pressure, so don’t blindly chase just because whales are buying.
The most painful part: you panic sell, while they lock up ETH and slowly earn interest.
Brothers, happy Mid-Autumn Festival! You can eat more mooncakes, but really don’t over-leverage. 😂
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $BTC hit the same spot twice in a row and couldn't break through—$87,300. It's no longer just a number; it's the hardest ceiling right above $BTC's head.
In the past two days, Bitcoin surged to around $87,300 twice, both times being pushed back down, then once dropped below $84,000. To be clear, the sell pressure here is really heavy, not just some lines drawn to scare people.
But I think the easiest mistake now is to shout "top" just because of "two rejections."
Don't forget, $BTC was pulled up all the way from around $75,000, rising too fast and accumulating a lot of leverage. After the second failed surge, about $280 million in long liquidations happened within a few hours, which looks more like a thorough shakeout of the chasing buyers.
The real trouble is the external environment.
The US Dollar Index has touched around 101 again, the 2-year US Treasury yield remains high, and rate hike expectations are heating up. BTC is not just fighting bears now; it's clashing head-on with "more expensive money."
So from now on, I’m only watching two levels:
Below, $83,600–$82,000— as long as this zone can hold, I don’t think the structure is completely broken; above, still $87,300—only when it truly breaks out with volume can we say this ceiling is lifted.
And once $87,300 is really surpassed, the next target many will watch is likely $90,000.
What I fear most now is not a pullback.
It’s that when BTC tries to hit $87,300 for the third time, many people will already be too scared by the first two attempts to chase.Alright, so if you're in accumulation mode, the $SEI chart looks pretty wild right now.
I've been watching $SUI and $ARB before because they showed higher timeframe bullish divergences at the time, and $SEI now feels like the same kind of energy. This structure looks like it's consolidating and building momentum.
I'm not saying it's going to take off tomorrow, but if you're building a position, this is the kind of structure you want to see before things get interesting. Charts don't lie about momentum changes—they just don't tell you "when."Aerodrome has taken back the money from sandwich attacks
When I first entered the space, I thought the money on DEXs only belonged to market makers.
The data looks like this: Slipstream V3 runs protocol-level MEV auctions, and the profits from sandwich attacks and arbitrage are directly shared with LPs and sAERO token holders, with the protocol itself calculating tens of millions of dollars.
Follow or not: Previously, all this money went into bots' pockets, but now the protocol intercepts it. The dynamic fee rate automatically increases with volatility, claiming capital efficiency 4000 times that of traditional AMMs.
Looking ahead, the Ethereum mainnet launch is scheduled for Q2 2026, and AERO plans to merge the Base and OP chains into one token. The narrative is long, but the implementation is two years away.
Newcomers fear this kind of distant yet tempting promise the most. My principal is small, so I only note this figure and dare not chase it. The positions of Wall Street dogs have always been stepping stones for the market.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $ETH 9.25 加密快讯 | 亿姐聊币圈 【今日概览】 BTC稳守$87,000，XRP反弹至$1.58附近成最大看点。宏观面扰动未消，市场多空博弈加剧。 【重点事件】 美参议院49:50否决《CLARITY法案》，数字资产监管框架立法受挫 XRP现货ETF单日逆势净流入$350万，同期BTC/ETH ETF合计流出$11.1亿——机构结构性偏好显现 XRP Ledger累计交易突破30亿笔，底层生态持续扩张 【五大币种速览】 BTC｜$87,000附近横盘，ETF两日吸金$17亿，机构压舱石地位稳固 ETH｜走势偏弱，ETF资金外流，链上活跃度待观察 XRP｜周涨16%反弹至$1.58，ETF逆势吸金成最大亮点。注意：XRP是数字资产（桥梁货币），非数字商品 SOL｜$97震荡，代币化股票赛道占97%份额，生态护城河深 ADA｜$0.22低位整理，Midnight隐私升级+Leios扩容预期仍在 【亿姐独家研判】 XRP这波反弹本质是空头平仓驱动（$3亿空单清算），非新增买盘。但ETF逆势吸金+链上30亿笔交易是实打实的底层支撑。$1.60是关键分水岭——站稳，上方看$1.70；失守$1.Luckily I got out early, otherwise I would have gone back again.
Damn, you really can't be greedy going long now. Yesterday $CNPY even bounced back to around 0.47, it was fluctuating all day, I thought it was going to break a new high since it was still quite far from the previous peak. But after waking up, it dropped back down again. If I hadn't closed my position yesterday, it would have been a free profit.
The same goes for $USELESS and $AKE, they bounce up easily but then fall back down, and even more so. Useless is now around 0.28 again, and AKE was close to 0.05 at its highest yesterday. How much is left now?JPMorgan says Bitcoin has reached a production cost of 85,000, and miners finally don't have to sell at a loss.
I've been staring at this number for a long time.
280 days. The last time was in 2018, 224 days, then high-cost miners collectively shut down, hash rate dropped, difficulty dropped.
What about this time? The scale of miners has grown, industrialized, but the accounting is still the same — electricity costs won't be discounted just because your factory is bigger.
The problem is, 85,000 is JPMorgan's "estimated" cost. It's not reported by the miners themselves. Electricity fees, machine depreciation, financing costs — each calculates differently. Some survive well at 60,000, some are still struggling at 100,000.
So don't rush to believe the phrase "alleviate selling pressure" just yet.
Crossing the cost line only means changing from "must sell" to "can choose not to sell." But whether to sell still depends on what they think about the future.
The real question is: what if this price can't hold?
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ $BTC #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？
US stock market analysis: Bond market storm sweeps in, AI credit cracks begin to show, funds flee to two safe havens
Brothers, tonight's market can be summed up in one word: pressure. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to the highest since 2004, the 10-year broke 5.2%, the first time since 2007. The money market is directly pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike in October and 80% in December. Oil prices are on a roller coaster, Brent steadied at 107, and the Hormuz agreement rumors were denied by Iran within an hour. The dollar strengthened, gold retreated, Bitcoin sideways at 84,000.
But the index closed flat, the internal structure tells you where the money went. On the NYSE, there have been more new lows than new highs for 8 consecutive days, 13 out of 14 days like this. The money hasn't fled, it's contracted—hiding in healthcare, with Eli Lilly up 2.68% after approval of new insulin; hiding in AI application ends with real profits, Meta up 4.5% hitting a near one-year high.
The real thunder is on the AI credit side. Oracle's New Mexico data center declared force majeure, CDS spreads soared to historic highs, stock price dropped 3.5%. Next year AI capital expenditure is 1.3 trillion, half relying on debt, with financing costs this high, even giants can't bear it. Storage chain Western Digital fell nearly 5%, ARM down 8%, this is the signal.
In summary: yields won't turn down, so don't talk about attacking risk assets. Now is not the time to bottom fish, it's time to see who has strong cash flow and who doesn't rely on borrowing to get by. Keep an eye on oil prices and US Treasuries; once these two stabilize, the next round can come.$PUMP SHORT Setup | 1H
Price is retracing within the established bearish trend.
Entry zone: 0.003853–0.003866
Stop loss: 0.003906
Targets: TP1 0.003806 (1.13R) / TP2 0.003748 (2.36R) / TP3 0.003691 (3.57R)
Partial take profit: 20% / 30% / 50%
Notes: Direction conflicts with BTC 4H filter; expected EV is -0.68R, below the current threshold.
Status: Watchlist only — waiting for confirmation before considering this setup. $BTC $XAU $BZ Whether Europe and Japan are willing to acknowledge it or not, there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests. Judging by the momentum of development in the AI sector and the scale of the reception held by the American leader for the Chinese leader today, bilateral relations are largely unfolding along the lines of the G2 concept advanced by Fred Bergsten. Those who are capable should, as far as possible, live in or allocate their assets across these two major powers.$ONDO ONDO's current price is about $0.52, up over 25% in 24 hours, reaching a new six-month high, catalyzed by the on-chain investment portfolio launched in cooperation with BlackRock.
Short-term conditions support a relatively independent market: BTC holding steady at $84,000 without suppression, and the RWA compliance narrative continues to attract capital.
However, it cannot truly decouple from BTC: ONDO's correlation with BTC is about 0.70–0.85, making it a high-beta asset; when BTC falls, ONDO usually falls at 1.5–2.5 times the rate. The so-called "independence" essentially means structural excess returns under the premise that BTC does not fall, rather than the disappearance of gravitational pull.
Core variables in the medium to long term:
· Massive unlock in January 2027: about 1.71 billion tokens (worth approximately $600 million), which may create mechanical downward pressure
· Fee-switch governance vote: expected in the second half of 2026; if passed, it will change the value capture logic of ONDO as a pure governance token
Conclusion: ONDO can develop an independent trend when BTC is flat or moderately rising; if BTC undergoes a deep correction, ONDO will still follow with high beta.$STRK No vision, can't hold on, the profit this time is as thin as paper, but I love it to death.
During the intraday plunge, the screen was full of green, with wails all around. While others were running, I was staring at STRK. The rebound was weak, volume didn't keep up, and selling pressure was heavy. I suggested a bearish view; short positions could be tried.
Entered at 0.04700, the middle was so frustrating it made people want to curse, but I still held on. Just checked, 0.03917, +834.04%, the earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is really sweet 👏
Take profit on 80% first, don't be greedy for the last bit.
Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking.
Keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection; if it rebounds, don't give back the profits.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. The market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patience. Move when the next signal comes.
$BNB $XRP #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
Costco is very likely to deliver a quarterly report with "stable revenue but some profit flaws." The stock price has dropped 18% from its May peak; a 43x PE ratio is inherently fragile in a 5% interest rate environment. The real variables are gross margin and membership fee growth.
What is the basis? The earnings report after the market close on September 24 is expected to show revenue of about $94.8 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase; adjusted EPS around $6.55, up 12% year-over-year. Comparable sales are expected to grow 6.5%, with the U.S. at 6.9%, continuing to accelerate from last quarter's 6.8%. But BofA forecasts EPS at only $6.52, reasoning that rising transportation and merchandise costs will compress gross margin by about 10 basis points. Oppenheimer is more cautious, considering $6.55 the "best case," with core profits possibly falling short of expectations after tariff refunds are deducted.
The options market has already priced in large volatility. Implied volatility is 35%, far above the historical average of 17%. The stock price has fallen from $1093 to $895, breaking the $905 support; RSI is below 50, with the next support at $875. $HYPE is a "strong consolidation at a high level during the main upward wave," not a peak — the mid-to-long-term trend remains intact, and pullbacks are opportunities to buy the dip.
Current market situation:
- Current price around $92, only 6% below the ATH of $97.98 on 9/23, +15% in 30 days, +43% in 90 days, still one of the strongest assets in the entire market
- RSI about 61, falling back from the overbought zone but still above 50, no top divergence, a healthy pause after a strong rise
- Price still above the 20-day EMA ($85-87), all mid-to-long-term moving averages are bullishly aligned, the upward structure (higher highs and higher lows) remains unbroken
Key levels:
- Support: $90 (psychological level) → $86-87 (20-day EMA, strong support) → $84; these levels are zones for phased entries
- Resistance: $98 (ATH) → $100 round number; if the daily candle closes below $98, it opens the price discovery space toward $100+
Short-term disturbances to watch: unlocking on 9/29, about $90 million unstaking arriving on 10/1, core contributor unlocking on 10/6, which may cause a sharp dip to create a trap — but historically it has been able to absorb unlocking pressure through buybacks. Real cash revenue of $429 million plus continuous burns is the floor preventing deep drops.
Strategy: Do not chase above $98, test small positions near $90, heavy buying at $86-87, exit if it breaks below $84. Many holders of $CORE hope that by enduring three to five years, they will eventually see a major market rally.
But this directly applies Bitcoin's growth cycle, and the underlying logic of the two cannot be equated.
Assets with a genuine long-term narrative will show K-lines continuously lifting the bottom. Even when facing a major drop, there is always active capital at low levels to support, forming a spiral upward structure.
Tokens that exhaust their hype all at once often have their opening price as the peak of capital selling. Each short-term rally is mostly a bull trap rebound, making it difficult to recover previous losses, with new lows following new lows.
Looking back at CORE, the launch hype was maximized, early mining chips continuously unlocked and released, with selling pressure lingering above for a long time. Without a sustained new narrative to absorb the massive chips, relying solely on believers holding on stubbornly will only repeatedly play out "rebound → dump → new low."
Hoping to trade time for a rally essentially bets on the long-term story digesting massive selling pressure. The market will not provide a safety net for prolonged waiting, and selling pressure will not vanish out of thin air. The core of a market reversal is new capital and new narratives, not stubbornly holding positions. In a zero-sum game environment, prolonged endurance most likely ends in continuous decline.
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and carries significant risk. Major coins all closed in the green today, with $BTC reported at $84,598, up 0.28%, and $ETH and $SOL also slightly up. However, the total market cap fell by 2.03%, dropping to 2.9 trillion. This is not a capital exit, but a bleeding in the long tail: AKE down 17.13%, CARDS down 10.41%, BTW down 8.66%.
BTW is the most worrisome — price is falling, but the funding rate remains at +0.15%, with bulls holding on and paying fees despite the drop. This kind of structure usually requires another drop to clear out.
The only sector absorbing this is the tokenization sector: $ONDO up 26.3%, turnover rate 42.45%, with daily trading exceeding 1 billion USD; QNT up 26.71%. The main themes on X these days are stablecoins and tokenization regulation, with capital voting through trading volume.
In the next 72 hours, BTC’s dominance remains above 58.58%, with money continuing to concentrate on BTC and tokenization, while other altcoins continue to bleed; only if dominance falls below this line and total market cap recovers today’s 2.03% drop will altcoin rotation be considered restarted. $BTC $ETH | Today is the quarterly options expiration, discussing market and news separately.
📌 News (Key Events)
The biggest event in the crypto market today: Deribit platform has about $15.9 billion in $BTC options and $2.1 billion in $ETH options expiring simultaneously, with $BTC options accounting for 37% of its total open interest. The put/call ratio is only 0.70, indicating a clear bullish sentiment. About $9.4 billion in Calls, 55% are in-the-money, with the most concentrated strike prices at 85,000, 90,000, and 100,000 USD. However, the biggest pain point currently lies in the 76,000-75,000 USD range, about 9,000 USD away from the current price.
In simple terms, market makers have an incentive to push the price toward the pain point before expiration, but the current Call positions are too heavy. Once it breaks through 85,000 USD, Gamma squeeze could trigger a sharp rally. Caroline Moron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, also mentioned that hedging activity before expiration may suppress prices, but once the rollover is complete, the suppressed upward momentum could explode again.
Additionally, Bitget's hot wallet suffered an unauthorized withdrawal of about $350 million; the platform stated that the protection fund can cover the loss. This incident may increase market risk aversion in the short term.
⚠️ Market (Technical + Funding)
$BTC is currently around 84,400 USD, down slightly 0.06% in 24H. $ETH pulled back slightly to around 2,688 after breaking 2,700. The first resistance above is at 84,670-84,930 USD, and the core support below is at 83,400-83,600 USD (EMA30 area).
From the funding perspective, $BTC futures annualized funding rate is about 8%, not extreme, with leverage sentiment leaning neutral. But U.S. Treasury yields continue to pressure—10-year yield once hit 5.145%, 30-year soared to 5.444%, the highest since 2004. Oil prices remain above 100 USD, and global macro pressure is transmitting to the crypto market. The good news is spot ETFs are still attracting funds, with BTC ETF net inflow about $347 million in a single day, marking five consecutive trading days of net inflows.
💡 Trading Tips
Avoid chasing highs or selling lows today. Options expiration day often amplifies short-term volatility, with a high probability of spikes up and down. Focus on 85,000 USD—this level is both a dense Call zone and a key battleground between bulls and bears. A breakout and hold could trigger a squeeze rally; repeated rejection calls for caution on a pullback to 83,400 support. After expiration settlement (usually after UTC 08:00), the direction will become clearer.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #AI模型集体降价，竞争转向成本
US Stock Market Close Summary: Meta nears $2 trillion, AI infrastructure triggers sudden "delay" alert
Top 20 by trading volume: Meta surged 4.5% leading with 26.4 billion; AMD hit new highs, up 2.38%, Intel rose nearly 4%; Oracle and Bloom Energy fell over 3%, SanDisk dropped 3.47%.
Price changes: Most large tech stocks weakened, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple closed slightly down, Google rose against the trend by 1.34%.
News: Meta receives strong support from JPMorgan, AI assistant monetization model upgrade opens new growth curve. Oracle issued a "force majeure" notice for the Stargate core data center Project Jupiter, market worries about a $300 billion computing power project delay. Micron's earnings release is imminent, with HBM demand as a focus.
AI narrative shows cracks, infrastructure delay signals warrant caution, storage and computing power divergence intensifies, short-term volatility may increase#21Shares launches Europe's first ZcashETP
This week, 21Shares listed Europe's first Zcash ETP on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, ticker ZCASH, physically backed. ZEC now has its first compliant asset management entry point in Europe.
Background: Grayscale's ZEC ETF has long been available in the US. Now Europe is catching up, meaning ZEC is officially transitioning from a "privacy coin traded by retail investors" to an "asset accessible to institutions." Large European pension funds and wealth management capital, which previously could only watch, now have a compliant channel.
ZEC has indeed surged this round. At the end of June, it was just over $400; on September 22, it broke through $1600, hitting a new high since 2016—coincidentally, the same day 21Shares was listed. It nearly quadrupled in three months.
But I have to pour cold water: half of this rise is due to the compliance narrative, the other half is a short squeeze. There were too many shorts before; as the price rose, shorts had to cover, pushing the price higher. After nearly three months of continuous gains, the short-term increase is already huge.
The ETP launch is a long-term positive, but in the short term, be cautious of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. The market had already rallied ahead of the announcement; when the listing actually happens, it might be a time for profit-taking. ZEC's recent drop from 1600 to around 1500 reflects this.
If you hold ZEC, don't treat the ETP as rocket fuel. In the long run, privacy coins entering the mainstream is a trend; in the short term, such a sharp rise means a pullback is the normal script.
⚠️ Personal opinion, for discussion only. $ZEC Yesterday we discussed the direction reversal: the overall position swap, account status retention, and the automatic transfer of the three-layer structure's target to the new pressured side. The article ended with a connection point—how the path of the new pressured side unfolds after the reversal and how the speed is controlled. Today, we will elaborate on this: the mechanism to amplify the execution space (following the trend) and the mechanism to control the risk growth speed (anti-waterfall), and how they coordinate within the same structure. First, the conclusion: while amplifying the execution space, the risk growth speed must be limited. One controls the amplitude, the other controls the speed; their directions and actions differ, but both guard the two ends of the same market movement. This article discusses the division of labor and cooperation between the two mechanisms and does not suggest that ordinary users set or modify platform parameters themselves. Both the trend-following condition and the anti-waterfall condition are part of the platform's preset rules. Ordinary users can operate with default parameters, usually only needing to adjust the initial order and leverage according to their account conditions. 1. First, clarify: what each mechanism controls. The trend-following mechanism controls the participation amplitude on the trending side. When the market runs continuously in one direction, the system increases the multiplier of orders on the trending side according to rules, up to a maximum of 5 times; the trigger conditions and upper limit are written in the preset rules and executed by the system. It is currently disabled by default under the aggregated take-profit configuration—this was mentioned earlier, and the switch is determined by structural coordination. The anti-waterfall mechanism controls the speed of additional actions. When the market rapidly moves in an unfavorable direction within a short time, it pauses additional actions such as adding positions, allowing the position expansion to slow down first; after triggering, it continues to observe, and recovery also has conditions.The Federal Reserve has issued detailed rules on the GENIUS Act: the stablecoins it regulates must be 100% backed by high-grade reserves, such as short-term Treasury bills.
A strict rule — stablecoin reserves can only be compliant assets, with T-bills as the main component.
This effectively gives stablecoins a "true identity":
They will no longer be wild on-chain dollars, but compliant shadow currencies tied to U.S. debt.
In the short term, this is a regulatory cost; in the long term, it integrates stablecoins into the core of the dollar system, also providing a liquidity foundation for the BTC ecosystem.9.25 Morning Express📝
$BTC current price 84400
Early week surged to 87400, PMI plunged below 85000 on Wednesday, lowest at 82800 on Thursday, slight rebound in Asia, ETH 2680.
The previous upward structure at 87,000 was completely lost, and this round of short covering rally is basically over.
Macro Market
5-year US Treasury yield breaks 5% for the first time in 18 years, TSMC foundry price hike of 3%-6%, diesel ban rumors debunked.
US PMI data exceeded expectations, inflation pressure rising, rate hike expectations heating up, USD steady at 101, US Treasury yields continue to rise.
US stocks fell for three consecutive days, no substantive results from US-Iran ceasefire talks, tense situation in the Strait.
Oil prices rise again, Brent at 106, WTI at 95, geopolitical risks continue to support oil prices.
Core Logic in Crypto
High interest rates + high oil prices, dual pressure on risk assets
Clear legislation not yet implemented, no regulatory benefits
Previous rise was just a short squeeze rebound, not a new trend
Short-term Key Points
84500 is the core resistance level
If broken, expect 83000→81000
Oil and US Treasury yields remain high, subsequent market is weak
Strictly avoid heavy positions on Friday
For review reference only, not investment advice 📌 【ZEC Volume-Reduced Rebound, Whale Sell-Off Alert Triggered】
Current Price: $1,556｜24H Change: +2.65%｜24H Trading Volume: $76.62M
After the daily chart fell from the $1,680 high and stabilized at $1,456, it formed a V-shaped recovery, but volume has clearly shrunk. On-chain alerts are frequent: a whale holding for over two years transferred 22,800 ZEC (about $23.11M) to Binance, taking profits at roughly 20x; another suspected Bitkub co-founder related wallet cluster lifted privacy protection, transferred to Hyperliquid and sold, then rotated into 238 BTC. Today's forced liquidation of Kraken users in the UAE also deserves attention, with liquidity shocks gradually fading.
In the mid-to-long term, privacy sector inflows total about $30B. After the SEC ended its investigation, the first ZEC spot ETP has been approved for listing, maintaining fundamental support.
Key levels: Resistance above at $1,680, support below at $1,456.
$ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ Even though there were several sharp sell-offs during this pullback week, the price was able to rebound after each sell-off?
Reasons:
1. Tether has confirmed that USDT will launch on Bitcoin through the RGB protocol and Lightning Network. It is reported that Morgan Stanley is discussing the adoption of USDT on Bitcoin across Europe and globally.
2. Researchers have proposed the Shielded Bitcoin framework, which enables private transfers directly on Bitcoin L1 without a soft fork, using zero-knowledge proofs to hide the sender, receiver, and amount.
3. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $347 million on September 23, achieving five consecutive days of capital inflow, while strategies increased holdings by 950 BTC, bringing total reserves to about 846,000 BTC.
3. AI-assisted coding has reduced the estimated GPU cost for preparing quantum-resistant Bitcoin transactions from about $320 to $66 within a week, operating under existing Bitcoin rules without requiring a network upgrade.
4. For the first time in a bear market, Bitcoin never closed below its realized price, making June's low the shallowest in the past three cycles, while wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have accumulated 113,950 BTC since mid-July.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #美股探索代币化与全天候交易 15,100 people viewed, only 6 likes
15,100 views, 6 likes. This data is more exciting than the market.
Is a sharp drop good news?:
There are many sharp drops in a bull market, that's true. But when a sharp drop really comes, your hands will shake.
Who is impulsive?:
Analytical ability is not the barrier; fear of missing out is. When panic hits, rationality is suppressed by emotion.
Who is getting cut in this wave?:
Those chasing highs are most likely handing chips to the calm ones. Adding and subtracting, those hit on both sharp rises and falls are the same batch of quick hands.
So I’m not chasing now. I’ll wait for it to drop thoroughly, wait until I understand it before moving.
Did you rush in this wave, or are you like me watching from the sidelines?
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $ETH The $ZEC institutional gateway has opened, and continuous buying requires AUM proof.
On the morning of September 25, OKX spot $ZEC was quoted at $1,554.69, up 3.24% in 24 hours, and approximately 97% up in the past 30 days.
Perpetual positions are about $168 million, and the funding rate remains positive.
In the past week, it only rose about 4.9%, with the price entering high volatility turnover after falling back from the September 23 high of $1,680.
On September 22, 21Shares listed a physically-backed Zcash ETP on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, with a 2.5% annual fee, and the underlying ZEC is held by a custodian.
This adds a compliant gateway for European brokerage accounts, but product listing only means it can be bought.
Subsequent changes in AUM and shares will show whether there is real incremental demand.
Ledger has also natively integrated shielded balances into its desktop wallet, lowering the usage threshold for private assets.
On-chain data:
Last week, shielded transactions increased to 62,379, with the shielded pool holding about 4.91 million ZEC.
The visible circulating supply of these coins has decreased.
If the ETP scale does not grow but the price surges again amid rising positions, the main drivers may be high-leverage long holders, and a pullback would trigger concentrated liquidations.
If AUM, shielded transactions, and spot trading increase simultaneously, the institutional gateway truly converts into buying pressure. Macroeconomic headwinds: Is the altcoin season a real signal or just a pump-and-dump?
Interest rates have risen, wiping out a large amount of leverage, but the funds haven't completely exited; it's just that decent opportunities have become scarce.
PMI data exceeded expectations, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.12%, the dollar strengthened, and the market is pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike in October. Taking on risk assets now comes at an increasingly high cost. BTC was pushed down twice after hitting 87,300; in 24 hours, long positions liquidated $444 million. Simply put, leverage was forcibly closed, not that funds voluntarily left.
The short-term watershed for $BTC is at 83,500, where chips concentrate and turnover occurs. If it holds, there's a chance to retest 87,300 and challenge 90,000; if it breaks down effectively, first look at 80,000, with strong support around 76,000 below.
Many indicators suggest altcoin season is coming, but market enthusiasm hasn't really spread. The $ZEC story is hyped, with the rise mixed with short squeezes; NEAR doubled in the short term, but the underlying buying power is actually weak.
Indicators are signaling, but don't get carried away rushing into altcoins. Currently, it's just range-bound back and forth; watch $BTC's turnover at 83,500, wait for the trend to clarify before choosing an opportunity, and don't bet on direction prematurely. $ETH
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ This guy's trading logic boils down to one sentence: he shorts when it rises, and runs when it falls.
Just saw this whale's update, long position cost at 78,000, now watching the 79,000 line.
If it breaks below, he'll gradually close longs; if it quickly surges near 100,000, he's actually preparing to place defensive short orders between 98,000 and 105,000.
Interestingly, he was bullish all the way from 58,000 to 100,000, but failed to time the top midway and didn't fully take profits.
So this time, I'm just here to watch the show.
He's not calling trades, he's drawing a roadmap for himself.
The only number really worth watching is 79,000. If it breaks, it means even he doesn't want to hold anymore.
As for that short zone above, it seems more like a conflicted move, afraid of missing out but also afraid of a pullback.
My prediction is simple: this kind of play blocking both ends will most likely get hit from both sides in the end.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $ETH Currently, DEX aggregators can handle about one-third of the entire DEX market volume.
But prediction market aggregators may not be able to directly apply this formula — these two sectors have different structures.
The "small stakes, big wins" attribute is stronger in prediction markets; the density of event arbitrage and combination betting opportunities is much higher than in spot markets, and it is naturally more suitable for AI agents to operate:
Clear rules, verifiable outcomes, and machines are faster than humans at exploiting arbitrage opportunities.
My judgment is that prediction market aggregators are not competing on "how many trades they handle," but on who can turn event combinations and hedging into products. AI will enter this space earlier than in DEX.现在更像洗筹后的博弈期，不是追涨期。 山寨到底是在等BTC发令，还是已经偷偷掉队了？ 这两天看盘有个很明显的感觉：BTC还在台上领舞，ETF持续吸筹，价格贴在85K到86K附近晃，90K是那个大家嘴上不说、心里都盯着的门槛。ETH越过2.66K之后没掉链子，只要2.56K到2.65K这个带子不破，结构就还算体面。SOL在117附近磨，120是它能不能重新拿到高beta入场券的确认线。 但真正让我在意的不是价格，是衍生品那边的表情。 - 持仓量没有跟着价格一起兴奋，说明杠杆还没全面压上来，这既是好事也是隐患。 - 资金费率偏中性，没有极端贪婪，意味着挤压的燃料还在，但引信没点着。 - BTC稳、ETH撑、SOL如果放量跟上，山寨才有机会从轮动变成扩散。 - 反过来，如果SOL冲120失败、ETH丢了2.65K，那所谓山寨季只是BTC一个人的独角戏。 我现在的判断是：市场在交易"确认"，不是交易"想象"。90K对BTC是情绪开关，2.65K对ETH是结构底线，120对SOL是风险偏好回归的证明。三个条件同时成立，山寨才有资格谈扩张；缺一个，就还是存量博弈，追高的人容易变成别人的退出流动性。$ETH 100U Quantitative Bot Operation Record Day 36 (08:15)
Yesterday I said 2706 is a barrier, 2630 is the lifeline — and both were tested: it was pushed back after touching 2706 above, and after hitting 2626 below it immediately pulled back without holding. Currently around 2680. This is the third time; I tend to think it will still hold.
Key levels:
· Resistance: 2706, 2744, 2783
· Support: 2658, 2620, 2600
Intraday trading suggestions:
1. Short on rebound
· Entry: near 2706 when price stalls
· Stop loss: 2718
· Target: 2658 → 2620
2. Long on pullback
· Entry: near 2658 when price stops falling
· Stop loss: 2648
· Target: around 2700
3. Volume-based long (aggressive)
· Entry: near 2710 if pullback does not break
· Stop loss: 2696
· Target: around 2744
The Bot was swept from both sides again yesterday: it bought in batches at relatively low levels during the decline, the position was right but this batch was not held, some were sold before the rebound; the short position placed on the high-level wall overnight was profitable. This morning, another short was placed on this rise and is still held. Adjusted the average position price.
The third time reaching the 2706 wall, will it break through or be pushed back again?
⚠️ The above content is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice.
Be flexible with key levels, watch your position size, take profits and stop losses timely, and pay attention to data timeliness. $BTC is oscillating narrowly around 84,500, with ETFs seeing a net inflow totaling about $715 million over four consecutive days. Bitwise surveyed 15 large institutions; during a roughly 50% drawdown from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, none reduced holdings, and some even increased them. Institutions do not consider price a reason to sell.
$ETH is holding above 2690, with ETFs experiencing net inflows of about $162 million over three consecutive days. However, institutions are more cautious with ETH allocations, maintaining smaller positions, shorter cycles, and setting exit conditions. If growth in stablecoins and others falls short of expectations, some institutions may exit in the coming years.
$SOL rose over 2% against the trend. The foundation appointed former top platform executives as Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Payments to promote institutional adoption. This year, stablecoin trading volume exceeded $5 trillion, and RWA surpassed $4.5 billion. Treasury companies are also raising funds to increase holdings.
BTC and ETH are stabilized by ETFs, while SOL relies on its independent ecosystem. The market is under pressure, but institutions have not withdrawn; they are merely reallocating.Why did Bitcoin lose the 85k level? Has the plan changed?
Yesterday I said 85k was the most important support level.
After breaking 85k, the price fell below 84k within an hour.
At that time, $237 million long positions were liquidated.
The drop was sharp, but the proportion of large holders' long positions remained the same as yesterday.
Why?
The answer is in the data, and the reason the plan hasn't changed is also in the data.
The pressure to break 85k came from the United States.
A Federal Reserve official said inflation risks are rising, and a new round of rate hikes is very likely needed.
On the same day, the US 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 5%, the highest since 2007.
Leverage amplified the decline.
In the past 24 hours, the three major futures exchanges liquidated 11,000 Bitcoin positions, worth over $900 million.
The market overall saw $360 million in long position liquidations over 12 hours.
Among large holders' positions, longs account for 66%.
In other words, leveraged longs were washed out, and the big players held steady.
Today, the 85k level changed hands on the chart.
Yesterday it was a buy wall below the price; today it is a sell wall above.
Every 1% rise there brings a net sell of $101 million, about 1,200 Bitcoin.
There is also 84k on the way, with a net sell of $48 million for every 1% rise.
The strongest buy orders below are at 82k, with a net buy of $45 million for every 1% drop.
The price is caught between attacks from both sides between 82k and 85k. Brothers, BTC and ETH have dropped from their eight-month highs, but the bulls haven't been buried this time.
$BTC $84,600 | $ETH $2,693
Bitcoin retraced from the $87,385 high to around $84,600, and Ethereum simultaneously fell to $2,693. In the past 24 hours, about $234 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with longs accounting for $108 million and shorts $126 million — longs and shorts are almost balanced, with no one-sided slaughter.
Interest rate storm overhead, but ETF funds are still flowing in
The real bearish factor comes from the bond market. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 5.148%, and the 30-year surged to 5.444%, the highest since 2004. The dollar strengthened, risk assets collectively came under pressure, and BTC fell about 4% from its high.
But there is support on the funding side. The Bitcoin spot ETF saw nearly $1 billion inflow in a single day on Monday, marking the largest single-day inflow in 2026, with holders’ average cost around $81,722, currently still about 5% above the cost line. Ethereum spot ETFs have had net inflows for four consecutive days, with BlackRock’s ETHA contributing $50.8 million in a single day.
Technically, $84,000 is a key level to watch. Coinglass data shows that if BTC falls below $80,259, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major exchanges will reach $1.345 billion; if it breaks above $88,267, short liquidation intensity will reach $1.401 billion.
Let's discuss in the comments: with the interest rate storm and ETF buying, which will break first?👇
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ Day 26, single-day profit of ¥18,005.37. The account's cumulative profit and loss turned positive to +¥18,005.37, with three consecutive days of profit, finally climbing out of the deep pit after four consecutive days of sharp declines. $BTC $ETH
The crypto market on September 23 was a meat grinder for both bulls and bears.
Bitcoin oscillated at a high level between $86,000 and $87,000, once breaking above $87,000 intraday, then quickly falling back to $84,015. Ethereum sharply dropped from above $2,800 to $2,651, a 24-hour decline of 3.22%. The entire network saw liquidations of $389 million in the past 12 hours, with long positions liquidated at $352 million, while shorts were almost unscathed. Altcoins like UNI and ARB plunged over 11% in a single day, and the market was full of wails.
Why such a fierce drop? The US Treasury yields became the knife hanging overhead.
The US 10-year Treasury yield broke through 5.11%, marking the highest closing level since 2007, and the 30-year yield once rose to 5.444%, the highest since 2004. S&P Global data showed the US September composite PMI surged to 58.4, a 62-month high, with the input price index jumping from 59.9 to 66.4, signaling renewed inflationary pressure. Fed Governor Barr clearly stated that due to "risks to achieving the inflation target having increased," further rate hikes might be necessary. The market's probability expectation for a rate hike in October quickly rose from 55% to nearly 70%. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil climbed back above $103 due to the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, casting the shadow of energy inflation over the market again.
And I had already prepared before all this happened.
The loss of ¥8,175 on September 22 woke me up completely. That night, I closed all long positions and reduced leverage to the minimum. After the market opened on September 23, I did not rush in but observed quietly—when Bitcoin repeatedly tugged above $86,000, I did not chase longs; when Bitcoin broke below $85,000, I did not panic. I lightly tested longs near $83,500 and decisively closed positions at resistance around $84,500, capturing my small segment within the oscillation range. The ¥18,005 is the first profit in these 26 days where I stayed calm amid intense volatility and strictly followed the plan.
It's been twenty-six days. From -¥8,487 to +¥43,281, from four consecutive days of huge losses to today's +¥18,005, spot returns remain a cold ¥0.00—I have never truly held a single Bitcoin or Ethereum; these 26 days have been a battle in the contract meat grinder. This ¥18,005 taught me not how to predict direction, but how to control my hands in the face of $86,000 oscillations, 5.11% US Treasury yields, and 70% rate hike probability. In a macro storm, less action is better than wrong action; staying alive is more important than anything."Altcoin Contracts, Don't Use Your Principal as a Touchstone"
On a whim early in the morning, I opened a short position on PEPE, just to test the waters. Ten minutes later, everything was calm; half an hour later, my account had already lost a tenth. It’s not that I didn’t consider the risks, but I didn’t expect altcoins to behave like this: no trend, no support, only sudden pumps and dumps.
Using 10x leverage on mainstream coins is already aggressive; using it on altcoin contracts is like bringing a lighter into a gas station. You think you’re trading candlesticks, but you’re actually gambling against liquidity, sentiment, and the market makers’ rhythm. PEPE looks like it’s going to dip further, and the earlier gains haven’t fully retraced, but a single sharp move can force shorts out early. The direction might be right, but your position size and leverage will knock you out first.
Looking at BTC’s rise and fall, market rotation has begun, with funds flying around like migratory birds. Mainstream coins still have logic behind them, but altcoins are more about emotional pulses. When greed kicks in, risk is automatically downplayed, and losses make you realize that "you can’t guard against everything."
This loss wasn’t undeserved; it’s tuition paid for greed. It’s best to avoid altcoin contracts; if you must trade them, keep positions small, leverage low, and use stop losses—don’t turn a test into an accident. The market always has opportunities, but once your principal is gone, that’s the real exit.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ The whale's long position cost is actually lower than the current price
An account called "Set 10 Big Goals First" updated the $BTC operation plan.
His average long position price is around $78,000.
Where did this money come from:
This round, he has been bullish from $58,000 all the way to $100,000.
He misjudged the top midway and didn't take full profits.
How this number is calculated:
78,000 is the average entry price, not the transaction price of a single order.
He started to gradually close longs once it dropped below 79,000.
In other words, he only left himself a $1,000 buffer.
When it surged to the 98,000 to 105,000 range, he reversed to place defensive short orders.
If the daily candle holds above 108,000, this short logic becomes invalid.
Seeing others write every step clearly, I haven't even figured out my stop loss yet.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $BTC 9.25 BTC and ETH strategy reference: Mid-Autumn Festival is Mid-Autumn Festival, but K-lines don’t take holidays.
Yesterday’s lower shadow was quite intimidating, dropping to 82,800 before pulling back, but once the US session started, the bulls completely gave up, and the rebound was just a fakeout. The short-term cycle is still weak and oscillating, and the key is that there’s still a large group of bulls waiting to be liquidated above. The most likely scenario ahead is: drop → liquidation → further drop, and this cycle is hard to break before the election.
Today is Friday, and volatility will only increase. The strategy remains unchanged: rebounds are opportunities, don’t chase longs, only look for short positions at the right levels.
BTC short at 85,200-85,600, target first at 83,800, if broken continue downward. The long-term ultimate target I’m still watching is 73,800.
ETH short at 2,710-2,730, target first at 2,650, if broken continue downward, ultimate target at 2,300. $BTC $ETH Is the US stock market going on-chain?
Wall Street is finally starting to change its trading rules!
The US SEC recently granted temporary, conditional exemptions to qualified tokenized stock trading platforms, allowing them to trade tokenized stocks through on-chain liquidity pools under a specific regulatory framework.
This is different from crypto platforms issuing their own "US stock mapping tokens." Regulators are exploring rules for on-chain trading that truly represent stock ownership, and Nasdaq is also advancing its own stock tokenization plan.
In the past, US stocks were limited by trading hours, clearing, and cross-border access. Now, traditional markets are seriously studying longer trading hours and on-chain settlement.
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Crypto Market Brief: High-Level Pullback and Consolidation, Direction Awaiting Options Expiry
Market Overview: BTC has pulled back from the 87,000 high, oscillating around 84,000 for digestion. Total market cap is about 2.85 trillion USD, with no clear single trend.
• BTC: As of September 25, 08:03, priced at $83,630, down 1.14% in 24 hours, with $444 million long liquidations; 84,000-85,000 is the core zone for bulls and bears, support at 83,500/82,000 below, strong resistance at 87,300 above.
• ETH: Priced at $2,555, up 4.41% in 24 hours, relatively resilient, showing a recovery trend.
• Altcoins: Highly divergent; BNB leads with a breakout above $800; DOGE down nearly 8%, XRP, ZEC, HYPE down over 5%. Glassnode signals shift favoring altcoins but diffusion remains unstable.
Key Influencing Factors:
✅ BTC ETF net inflow of 2,186 units (about $243 million), funds have not exited.
⚠️ PMI rose to 58.4, 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5%, tightening pressure.
⚠️ Approximately $16 billion worth of BTC quarterly options expire today, volatility may increase.
Short-term View: Monitor ETF fund flows and post-options expiry direction; if inflows weaken causing 82,000 to break, deeper correction likely; holding 84,000 with risk appetite warming, rotation and diffusion may present opportunities.
Currently, this is a high-level leverage liquidation market, not a trend reversal market.
⚠️ This article does not constitute any investment advice. The exam paper is full of open cards, the suspense lies outside the paper
#财报观察员：Costco's Q4 earnings report is about to be released
Costco's test paper, the answers have been released in advance.
As of 08:03 on September 25, Q4 net sales reached $93.9 billion, up 11.3% year-on-year, with comparable sales up 9.4%, already disclosed at the beginning of the month. The real suspense lies deep in the income statement: membership fees contribute about half of the operating profit for fiscal year 2025, and the bonus from the US and Canada membership fee increase has been fully exhausted this quarter. The market is still eyeing a possible special dividend.
The contradiction is this: the more impressive the sales, the more it shows the resilience of US consumption, the harder it is for inflation to ease, and the further away the rate cut expectations are — good results are actually bad news. The stock price has only risen about 5% this year and fallen nearly 18% from its historical high; the market has already priced this in.
Don't rush to read this as retail news; this earnings report is like the water meter on the Federal Reserve's faucet, measuring not sales volume but the water pressure of rate cuts.
In the short term, focus on the wording about renewal rates and profit margins during the post-market call; in the long term, see how long this membership well can be tapped. The open card test is the question outside the paper.
$COST $BTC
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.Today's approximately $16.5 billion BTC+ETH options expiration is more important than the candlestick chart.
BTC has about $14.4 billion nominal value, with a put/call ratio around 0.84, and the max pain point is at 78,000.
Spot price is hovering around 84,400, still some distance from the pain point.
The settlement window is around 4 PM Beijing time, followed by durable goods data and CME contract settlement.
Simply put: hedging before expiration suppresses volatility; after expiration, the buffer is removed, and the real buy and sell orders emerge.
My view: don’t rush to interpret the rise and fall as the end of the trend.
I’m more interested to see if it can hold above 84,000 after settlement and whether ETF buying picks up.
Clear invalidation condition: if it quickly breaks below about 83,000 after settlement, treat it as a range pullback and do not add positions.
Are you more worried about a drop after expiration, or more hopeful for a continued surge to 90,000 after volatility releases?
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