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Just after the major non-farm payrolls were announced, the CME rate hike probability website crashed again. Now it finally refreshed, showing the October rate hike probability has indeed dropped to the teens, closing at 16.1%.
This probability basically defines the minimum probability range for no rate hike in October, but as always, maintaining a no rate hike probability for over 20 days from now is still too long. The Federal Reserve will not tolerate such market consensus lasting too long.
So, the fastest scenario is that some information will come out next week to push the October rate hike probability back up, and then it will be pushed down again closer to the 10.26 FOMC meeting.Information Screening: The market is full of news, learn to filter out the noise📰
Every day, a large amount of information floods the market, most of which are just short-term emotional disturbances.
Realistic Dilemma:
Immediately increase positions when seeing good news, panic sell when seeing bad news;
Get information from social group short videos, lacking independent verification;
Mistake short-term news for signals of long-term trend changes.
Two optional paths:
Path A: Only track core macro information of $BTC and $ETH, reduce browsing fragmented social group messages.
Path B: When seeing hot news, first observe the capital reaction on $CRV and MKR market, do not impulsively act immediately.
News-driven market moves are mostly short-lived, do not let short-term news change your long-term holding framework.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The short-selling funding rate for $SAND is ridiculously high, annualized over 1000%. The 24-hour trading volume suddenly surged to 1.7e, making it popular. Currently, it has risen 56%. There is support during short-term declines, so it can't fall much further. Could it suddenly spike to over 0.1 like that coin did half a month ago? Right now, the short positions dominate the long-short ratio. If I were the market maker, I would definitely pump it hard and aggressively absorb the short sellers' chips. Let's see how it goes later; I'll wait and watch for now and dare not open a position.OKB was still below 122.3 yesterday, but today it directly spiked to 122.9.
Yesterday's low was 120.5, the high touched 122.3 but didn't break through, closing at 121.51. Today it opened at 121.52, with a high of 122.9, a low of 120.76, and the current price is about 122.53. Volume has increased.
122.9 above is the immediate resistance. If it breaks below 121.52, it’s likely to first see 120.76, and then further down to 120.5.
In the short term, watch if it can hold around 122.5. If it can’t hold, treat it as a pullback after a breakout and don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 121.52 can hold as support; if not, consider reducing your position. $OKB The phrase "synchronous outflow" doesn't add up.
Farside 10/1 COMPLETE: BTC +102.7 million, ETH −55.4 million, SOL −1.1 million. The yellow label still lists outflow side by side, but BTC had already flowed back that day.
The room is debating whether it's a mass exodus or waiting for the non-farm payrolls—I’m breaking down the accounts: IBIT held +195.6 million that day, while ETH side is still leaking. The synchronous narrative is already cracking.
Do you accept this layer?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Currently, from the market perspective, both gold and Bitcoin have returned to the small highs caused by the positive PCE data on Wednesday night. If the US stock market cannot effectively break through after opening later, there might be some changes over the weekend closure until next week. The duration of this positive effect is somewhat short.Damn, still crossing arms, historical data indeed revised downward, the show goes on, first enjoy a week of bubble, when the risk market has no room to rise, there will definitely be some other news to push up the interest rate expectations#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
The US September non-farm payrolls will be released tonight at 20:30, with an expected increase of 84,000 to 85,000, significantly slowing compared to August's 162,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Initial jobless claims are 197,000, below expectations, indicating the job market has not collapsed. But Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson just commented that recent market interest rate rises may require more time and data to determine whether to adjust rates. Once this statement came out, market bets on a rate hike in October dropped again.
Data drives BTC movement
If non-farm payrolls are below 70,000, signaling clear employment weakness, an October rate hike is basically ruled out, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to fall, giving BTC a chance to continue rebounding and test 86,000 to 87,000. If data is between 80,000 and 100,000, meeting expectations, market reaction will be mild, and BTC will likely fluctuate between 84,000 and 86,000. If data is strong above 130,000, rate hike expectations will heat up again, putting pressure on BTC to retest 82,000 or even 81,000.
The same logic applies to gold
Weak non-farm payrolls will cause gold to rebound and test above 4,200. Strong non-farm payrolls will push gold down to below 4,130 or even 4,100.
Don't bet on the data in trading
BTC has risen 2.43% now, and market sentiment is optimistic, but non-farm payrolls are a random variable; guessing right is luck, guessing wrong is tuition.
$BTC $ETH $XAUT Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise, BTC Surges to $87,000: The Real Change Is the October Rate Hike Odds!
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings fell to 3.0% year-over-year.
Coupled with downward revisions to employment data from the previous two months, the cooling U.S. labor market is not just a one-month anomaly but a sustained trend.
Weaker employment suggests that continued rate hikes could amplify economic downside risks; the slowdown in wage growth also eases pressure on service inflation from rebounding.
However, core inflation remains around 3%, and oil prices and geopolitical risks have not disappeared, so it is still too early to discuss rate cuts.
That said, weak data is not purely positive.
If upcoming economic data continues to deteriorate, the market will no longer trade on the expectation of no rate hikes but on recession. If U.S. stocks open high but close lower, BTC could also see profit-taking.
The $87,400–$88,000 range is a key resistance level; a strong volume close above this opens the way to $90,000–$93,000.
$85,500 is the short-term strength/weakness line; holding above it indicates a valid breakout.
Breaking below $83,000–$84,000 signals weakening upward momentum; losing $82,000 means this round of nonfarm-driven gains is basically fully realized.
Weak employment significantly reduces the risk of further rate hikes in October, increasing BTC’s chances of testing $90,000 this month. However, how much it rises after the data release is less important than whether it can hold $85,500 after the U.S. market opens and turn $88,000 into support. That will determine whether this is a trend start or just profit-taking.The probability of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve has decreased to 16.1%. 83.9% of market participants, according to #CMEGroup, are on pause. And this is despite the fact that at the beginning of the week, more than 65% of market players were waiting for a rate hike. As a result, at first, these expectations were significantly reduced by favorable Personal Consumption Expenditure Indices, and today they were "finished" with data on the labor market. The situation, of course, looks some kind of globally "green". Outside the Uptober window, macro data is positive, the trend is looking up. People are in the mood$BTC — $86,145
Bitcoin broke above $86K overnight after buyers absorbed the 122M in short liquidations** in 24 hours. Spot ETFs flipped back to inflows with $102.7M on Oct 1.
$85K is now support. $87.5K is the next test.
$BTC
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows On October 1st, while everyone's Moments were full of traffic jams on highways and crowds at scenic spots, I was the only one getting brutally crushed by the dog whales on ZEC's candlestick chart! Others spend their holidays buying happiness, but I spend mine opening 30x leverage to buy misery. That night, I was almost carried away directly by ZEC!
Looking back at this magical night, ZEC's privacy narrative combined with its old coin low circulation made its spikes even more irrational than mainstream coins. At 22:01, seeing it hold steady around 1390, I maxed out a 30x long position, only to be smashed down to 1363 in 49 minutes, with a glaring -67% floating loss on the screen, over three thousand dollars wiped out in seconds, my heart skipped a beat.
At 22:50, I cut losses, watching it bounce back to 1382, then with red eyes I reversed to a 30x short. The dog whales were even more ruthless, instantly pulling back to 1330, then at midnight 1368.5 I took profits; a few minutes later it plunged to 1300. A day of back and forth netted me 2800 dollars. Now at 1380 sideways, liquidity is as thin as paper, can't play anymore.
Privacy coin + low market cap + high leverage = casino roulette. The fake holiday is over, leverage is off, being alive is better than anything. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The non-farm payroll data is out, $BTC is this wave going to be comfortable?
September's nonfarm payrolls were disappointing, missing expectations. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 29,000 in September, below the market median of 90,000. The U.S. unemployment rate in September edged up to 4.2%, compared to market expectations of 4.1%, and average hourly earnings year-on-year were 3.0%, also below expectations.
Looking at these data points together, the signal is clear: the U.S. job market is clearly cooling down.
For BTC and tech stocks, the short-term outlook is actually positive. Because the weaker the job, the less pressure the Fed faces to continue tightening, and market expectations for further easing may heat up again.
If BTC can use this data to hold above 86,000, I will continue to hold my long positions and keep looking higher.
#美国9月非农仅增2 9,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% Enduring the cycle is what makes a true winner
The market is full of stories but lacks resolve. Every surge is met with cries of "this time it's different," but after several bull and bear cycles, those who survive never rely on whitepapers or hype.
BTC doesn't depend on narratives; its computing power and consensus are its trump cards. ETH faces countless challenges, yet developers and TVL still gravitate toward it. SOL attracts high-frequency trading with low fees and high throughput. OKB, through total supply lockup and X Layer, has transformed from a platform token into an ecosystem gateway. Each has a different style but serves as an anchor in its own track.
Don't expect to get rich from a single coin. Only by combining core assets can you control drawdowns and weather volatility. Everyone is a stock god in a bull market, but only in a bear market do you see who is swimming naked. Winners aren't those who bet on a single surge but those who survive every cycle.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Considering the current $ETH market at the key support level of $2750, set take-profit in three tiers to balance profit realization and market tolerance:
First take-profit level for short positions: $2650. Close 50% of the position upon reaching this level to lock in basic retracement gains and avoid floating profits being eroded by market fluctuations.
Second take-profit level for short positions: $2618. Close another 30% of the position here, by which time most of the holding cost is covered, and the remaining position is essentially risk-free.
Third take-profit level for short positions: $2567. Close the remaining 20% of the position here, which is the key support at the EMA30 moving average, marking the near completion of the bearish trend.
It is essential to set stop-loss for short positions. If the price effectively breaks through this short-term resistance level, it indicates the short-term bearish logic has failed, and you should exit immediately to avoid further losses.
Use low-leverage isolated margin throughout to avoid forced liquidation triggered by extreme price spikes.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Brothers, after the clouds part, the moon shines bright; today I finally got a bite of meat. Even fly legs are meat. Recently, the market has been twisting back and forth like a twisted dough stick, and my account hasn't turned positive yet, but stopping the bleeding is better than taking a one-sided beating.
Today's strategy:
$BTC The big coin surged to around 85500 in the early session, just a breath away from the previous high. Those shorting probably got trapped again. I lean towards a daytime consolidation, with a possible pullback to 83500 or 82600 in the evening. For those wanting to go long, consider scaling in with a stop loss at 81888 and targets near 85800 and 86600.
$ETH The second coin's spot buying is slightly stronger, but the steering wheel is still in the big coin's hands. Yesterday's target was almost reached. If it pulls back to 2580 or 2520 tonight, consider going long with a stop loss at 2468 and targets at 2680 and 2750.
⚠️ The above is only my personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Risk is your own responsibility.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 A famous chartist called XLM a “long shot.” The market answered with volume.
$XLM pushed to $0.2346 today after Peter Brandt put Stellar on his multi-year radar. But beneath the social buzz sits a harder number: BVNK, now owned by Mastercard, recently connected its $39B annualized stablecoin flow to Stellar.
Narrative brought attention. Payment infrastructure gives traders a reason to keep looking. As soon as the non-farm payroll data came out, I knew the CPI data wouldn't be bad either
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
First, the non-farm employment increased by 29,000, significantly below expectations and previous values.
The initial non-farm employment figure for August was 162,000, revised down to 133,000. The initial figure for July was 21,000, revised down to -10,000.
September was weaker than expected, July was even negative, so the reason for a rate hike in October is definitely insufficient.
Second, the unemployment rate is 4.2%, higher than the forecast and previous value, but at the same time, the labor force participation rate increased from 61.6% to 61.8%.
So the increase in unemployment rate may be due to more people looking for jobs, not necessarily more unemployment. So don't fantasize about rate cuts.
Third, both the annual and monthly hourly wage growth rates were below expectations and previous values. As a result, the September consumer confidence index dropped sharply, so the upcoming September CPI data should not exceed expectations.
After all, wages haven't risen much, and consumer confidence has greatly weakened. So the CPI data on the 14th may also be positive, or at least not negative.
Therefore, for the FOMC meeting on October 28, it can't be said to be 100%, but it is very likely that there will be no rate hike.
Regarding the US-Iran situation, there may be some news causing minor negative impacts, but major negative impacts are unlikely.
However, whether there will be a rate hike in December still depends on subsequent data. We can only say the environment in October is favorable. Non-farm payrolls fell far short of expectations, triggering a strong wave of buying
$BTC surged from around 84,800 to now stand at 86,780 on the 4-hour chart, effectively breaking through the long-standing strong resistance at 85,640, which has now turned into support.
343 coins rose, only 56 fell, with many tokens gaining between +2% and +8%
The profit-making effect is fully activated, while the loss-making effect is weak; it's not just BTC pulling the market, funds are willing to spread into altcoins.
Do not heavily chase a one-sided position after a significant rally; a safer approach is to wait for a pullback to key support for strength verification, or confirm direction after holding a new high, rather than betting now on whether it can break 87,400.The U.S. jobs report has landed much weaker than expected: 🇺🇸 NFP: +29K vs +89K expected 👷 Unemployment: 4.2% vs 4.1% expected 💵 Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1% vs +0.3% expected The initial reaction was exactly what you would expect from a soft jobs report: Treasury yields and DXY moved lower, while Gold and BTC initially pushed higher. But here is where it gets interesting. 🥇 GOLD pumped aggressively and then met a serious rejection around the $4,228 area. ₿ BITCOIN also pushed higher befoWhat’s behind the $CT CT surge? Understanding the underlying logic of this rally
The recently booming CT is the governance token of the Concrete protocol. The core driver of this round’s breakout is the combined effect of exchange listing expectations and on-chain yield narratives.
CT is issued on Ethereum as an ERC20 token with a fixed total supply of 1 billion tokens and no additional inflation. It is positioned as an on-chain yield operating system where users can stake assets like WBTC and USDT to automatically execute on-chain strategies to earn yields. CT is the token used to vote on protocol governance parameters, and staking CT can also adjust platform fee rules.
The most direct catalyst for this surge was Coinbase adding CT to its listing preparation list, combined with OKX’s official announcement to list it. Expectations from leading exchanges directly attracted a large amount of short-term capital inflow. Unlike pure MEME coins, CT taps into the popular RWA and on-chain asset yield sectors, with a clear protocol business framework. The foundation’s compliance is also recognized in overseas markets.
However, its weaknesses cannot be ignored. CT only has governance rights and does not directly share platform profits; the token itself lacks stable cash flow buybacks. As a newly listed token, its token distribution is unstable, and short-term price increases rely entirely on exchange expectations and market sentiment. Once the listing benefits are realized, it is easy to see profit-taking and price drops.
In summary: CT is not an empty MEME token but a governance token with an on-chain yield narrative, ignited by expectations from leading exchanges. However, as a new token, it is extremely volatile. Avoid heavy positions chasing highs, as the realization of positive news often signals the arrival of risk. Clear out, clear out Feels like the market is a bit off The non-farm payroll data is so bad but there's barely any reaction $QUANT Just asking because I don't understand, I want to consult the experts: does US data have little impact on altcoins? I used to work in forex and felt the data had a significant impact, but looking at the recent small and big non-farm payrolls, it seems altcoins barely reacted.Non-farm data Unemployment rate 4.2%
Employment number 2.9
Naturally, this is good news for risk markets. The probability of a rate hike continues to decrease. US Treasury 2-year, 10-year, and 20-year bonds are all falling.
However, for ETH and BTC, this will only determine their 5-minute volatility.
The reasons are as follows
1. The daytime has already run ahead; the 4-hour structural level has just formed and needs consolidation confirmation to continue rising.
2. On the 1-hour chart, I don't know if it will continue to rise for a while tonight or adjust once the US stock market opens, but this is not important for trading.
3. The important thing is to know that if this is truly good news, there will be an hourly-level pullback now, which will definitely give you another chance to get on board.
4. Altcoin hype: UNI may perform relatively well this weekend.
Let's wait and see.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The job market has clearly cooled down, but to judge how weak it really is, we can't just look at the single number of new jobs added that month; we can further break it down:
❶ New Jobs Added: Hiring has clearly slowed
In September, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, significantly below the market expectation of about 85,000, indicating a clear slowdown in overall job additions.
❷ Revisions to Previous Data: Earlier employment was weaker than initially reported
July nonfarm payrolls were revised down from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000, and August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, totaling 60,000 fewer jobs added over the two months.
👉🏻 The weakening in employment is not just reflected in September alone
❸ Wage Growth: Is it also slowing?
Average hourly earnings in September rose only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, providing another clue to the cooling labor market.
❹ Unemployment Rate: The rise also needs to be understood "why"
While the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%, meaning more people entered or stayed in the labor market, which could also affect the unemployment rate. Therefore, we cannot judge the extent of employment deterioration simply by seeing the "unemployment rate rise."
💡 Overall, the job market in September did indeed weaken further: weak new job additions, downward revisions, and slowing wage growth all provide evidence. Although the rise in labor force participation means the unemployment rate increase cannot be simply interpreted as "fewer jobs," it is not enough to overturn the cooling signals presented by the entire report on employment.💰 $1,000 → $1,250 | Trading Day 3
Finally seeing some recovery as $BTC returns to $86K. Still cautiously bullish. 📈
$UNI and $AAVE remain strong DeFi plays for me, with pullbacks offering potential entry points.
For $DOGE, I’ll keep reducing half the position around $0.098.
The key is survival: manage position size, control greed, and avoid blindly chasing pumps or dips. Slow, steady compounding beats emotional trading.
#USJobsDataToday
#BTCETHETFOutflows Today's cash flow should be read in three layers: leading, expanding, and speculative. $BTC belongs to the leading layer because it determines the overall market sentiment. $ETH is the expanding layer, indicating whether liquidity has left BTC to dive deeper into the ecosystem. $SOL and $XRP are the group to watch when cash flow seeks opportunities beyond the two major assets. A good signal is not just price increase but must have improved volume, reasonable OI, and support maintained after breakout. Therefore, react based on data instead of chasing green candles. Maintain discipline with stop points.The September non-farm payrolls will be released tonight, with interest rate hike expectations becoming the focus.
Many traders only focus on the short-term market fluctuations after the non-farm data is released, but they overlook the guiding value of this employment report for medium- to long-term liquidity trends. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
This time, the US September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000. All four indicators—employment numbers, private sector jobs, unemployment rate, and wage growth—fell short of market expectations. Coupled with previous downward revisions of employment data, this fully signals a continued cooling of the labor market. Weak employment and slowing wage growth reduce the endogenous support for inflation, leading the market to further raise expectations for subsequent Fed easing.
From the perspective of crypto assets, liquidity expectations are the most important fundamental driver of BTC valuation. Once rate cut trades return to the main theme, the valuation pressure on interest-free scarce assets will ease, providing stronger macro support for this early bull market phase.
However, it is necessary to remain clear-headed here: a single non-farm payroll report is insufficient to immediately reverse the Fed's current policy pace. The short-term market is prone to a spike and fall after expectations are overdrawn; positive news does not equal an immediate start of a one-sided rally.
From my medium- to long-term live trading perspective, I will not rush to chase the short-term impulse brought by the news. I will continue to track subsequent inflation data to verify the sustainability of the liquidity shift, wait for the market to offer a cost-effective entry range, and then adjust my position accordingly. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly only 29,000, $BTC surged then pulled back, where is this "bad news" market headed?
September nonfarm data released: only 29,000 new jobs added, expected 90,000, and July and August were revised down by about 60,000 in total. Unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, hourly wages increased by only 0.1% month-over-month.
Bitcoin responded with a surge, once touching around 86,800. But then it fell back to oscillate above 86,000, failing to hold.
Why did it surge up only to be pushed down again?
The 85,000–85,500 range has a thick wall of sell orders. Previously, it approached 87,000 but couldn't break through; this time it tried again and still failed. The resistance above is clear; if 87,000 is not broken, chasing highs in the short term is just feeding the sell order wall.
What to watch now:
· Above 87,000: a breakout can open space to 90,000
· Below 85,000: key support, if broken look for 82,000–83,000
· 10-year US Treasury yield: if it moves back toward 5.3%, risk assets will come under pressure
Nonfarm data pushed down rate hike expectations, but Bitcoin did not take the opportunity to break resistance. It is oscillating between 85,000 and 87,000 to digest, waiting for a directional choice.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $CP ok specifically lists some junk coins, no futureEIP-7002 changes withdrawal control but does not handle all exits for users
The EIP-7002 introduced by Pectra allows the withdrawal address to trigger validator exits from the execution layer, reducing the risk that staking pools must rely on node operators' signatures to cooperate with redemptions. Previously, if operators refused or lost contact, the party holding economic rights might find it difficult to directly make validators leave; now, contract-based pools can bring exit rights closer to the withdrawal credential design. This improves the control structure but does not make withdrawals instantly credited. Validators still need to go through the exit queue and protocol processing, and staking pools must distribute the received ETH to users according to the rules. If contract permissions are set incorrectly, the withdrawal address is controlled, or frontend conditions are hidden, EIP-7002 cannot automatically protect assets. For $ETH staking products, what is worth checking is whether exit requests can be executed by on-chain rules, who can call them, and whether there is a pause switch, rather than just seeing the four words "support withdrawal."
The protocol grants the withdrawal address more initiative, which also makes the withdrawal address itself a more critical security target. Cold storage, permission separation, and contract auditing must be upgraded simultaneously; otherwise, the new capabilities will become new attack vectors.
Clear exit rights provide a trustworthy basis for redemption.#美国9月非农仅增2 9,000, unemployment rate rises to 4.2%. Hello brothers and sisters, I'm Coin Bro. Tonight at 8:30, I'm staring at the screen waiting for the non-farm payroll. Honestly, I was stunned for three seconds the moment the data came out—29,000. I looked at it three times, thinking I was mistaken. The market consensus expected 90,000, the previous value was 162,000, but it jumped straight to 29,000—a threefold difference. This isn't just below expectations—it's a direct blowdown. In today's article, I'll take some time to break down this data and explain it clearly. Because in the next month or two, how the crypto world moves will depend entirely on tonight's numbers. Let's look at four core data points: a complete crash. First, nonfarm payrolls added jobs. In September, only 29,000 jobs were added, compared to an expected 90,000, and in August it was revised down from 162,000. Guys, the baseline is a normal 150,000-200,000 increase in the U.S. month, so what does 29,000 mean? This is already recession-level employment data. The last time I remember it was this bad was during the pandemic. Second, the private sector added 46,000 jobs, compared to an expected 85,000, with the previous value revised down from 127,000. Note, the government is still adding staff, while private companies are just lying flat. Private companies not hiring shows that business owners lack confidence in the future economy and are unwilling to expand. Third, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, higher than expected. This number seems to have only increased by 0.1 percentage points, but the trend is deadly—once the unemployment rate turns upward, it won't stop in just one month. Fourth, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings dropped to 3%, compared to the expected 3.2$ZEC short position - 50x leverage, went all in once
Short position at 1387, 50x leverage, take profit at 1365: below that is gambler's money
ZEC short: open at 1387, take profit at 1365, 50x leverage.
Why not be greedier and go lower? Three reasons:
1 - 1365 is previous low + round number resistance + concentrated short take profit zone. First time reaching it, easy to get a wick and rebound, risk-reward instantly worsens.
2. At 50x, 1% price movement equals 50% margin. From 1387 to 1365 is about 1.6%, ROE about 80%. This profit is enough.
3. Taking profit is not about the end of the downtrend, but about the risk-reward ratio ending. If stop loss is at 1398, risk is about 11U, profit 22U, roughly 2:1. Below that is emotional money, not systematic money.
My principle: take the body of the fish, not the tail.
1365 is not the end point, it's my cash-out point.
Will you take profit at 1365 or hold on? #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力
The boss has something to say
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson recently stated that AI infrastructure construction is driving up the costs of some goods and services, impacting core commodity prices. Since the September rate meeting, interest rates across various maturities have further increased. The Fed needs more time and data to decide whether to adjust rates again.
This statement conveys three points. First, AI construction is indeed pushing inflation, and this is not a short-term phenomenon. Second, market interest rates are tightening spontaneously, so the Fed can wait. Third, bets on a rate hike in October have further decreased.
The market reaction is somewhat warm. Rate hike expectations have cooled, the dollar weakened, and risk assets can catch a short-term breather. But don’t rush to be bullish. Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are the key. ADP employment at 90,000 exceeded expectations; if nonfarm is also strong, rate hike expectations will heat up again, making a sustained rebound in Bitcoin difficult. If it weakens, the probability of no action in October is higher.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 5.6%, with fiscal deficits and bond supply pressure keeping this ceiling intact.
I took long Bitcoin positions at 82,800 twice and 83,000 once, all of which I closed yesterday, now holding no position. I won’t bet on direction before the nonfarm data; I’ll wait for the data to settle before finding an entry. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
No chasing highs or selling lows, waiting for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Potential Impact of Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls on BTC
📈 Bullish Logic (Short-Term Dominant)
· Cooling rate hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields fall → Opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets decreases
· Weakening dollar → Dollar-denominated assets gain exchange rate support
· Shorts previously betting on "strong nonfarm → rate hike" may be forced to cover, creating a short squeeze
⚠️ Reverse Logic to Watch Out For
If the market interprets the 29,000 increase as a recession signal rather than simply "easing rate hike pressure," risk assets may instead come under pressure. QCP Capital has previously stated that this round of BTC rise is driven more by capital flows and positioning than by fundamental improvements. Weak employment data could trigger recession fears, causing funds to flow into the dollar and U.S. Treasuries rather than Bitcoin. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH $ZEC SKY rose about 15% in one day to around 0.093, and S&P just gave a stable outlook, so I'm not chasing for now.
Observed: OKX daily K opened around 0.081, high 0.095, low about 0.080, currently about 0.093, up roughly 15% from yesterday's close of about 0.081, with a noticeable increase in trading volume.
Same day catalyst: S&P Global released Sky's annual review on 10/2, highlighting strengthened treasury management, increased capital, and a stable outlook; recently Galaxy disclosed about $100 million sUSDS recorded as institutional collateral.
Simply put: This is a bullish sentiment candle driven by rating endorsement combined with large capital inventory narrative, not because the protocol suddenly earned a big chunk of fees today, nor should it be seen as deflation realized overnight.
I think short-term chasing this candle is unwise—the high of 0.095 is almost at the current price, so optimistic expectations are already priced in.
My approach: just observe without chasing the high, wait for a pullback or see if new funds follow at the Singapore summit on 10/6 before deciding.
If invalidated, watch for a break below today's low of about 0.080 to continue down, or if it can firmly hold above about 0.095 before considering joining.
Are you waiting for a pullback and capital follow-up before acting, or do you think the S&P stable outlook is strong enough to get in directly?
$SKY $ETH $BTC
#US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously saw outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm$ATOM Tokenomics Reform: Shifting from "Inflation-Driven" to "Buyback + Burn"
This is the core variable determining ATOM's long-term price ceiling.
Implemented reforms: The maximum inflation parameter has been reduced from 20% to 10%, and the staking annual interest rate has dropped from 19% to 13.4%.
Key mechanisms underway:
· Osmosis Buyback Proposal: Cancel new ATOM minting and instead use DEX protocol revenue to buy back ATOM on the open market, with a total scale limit within 2.5% of the total supply. This proposal has entered the Cosmos Hub governance discussion phase.
· Proposal 868 (Minimum Inflation Reduced to 0%): The goal is to reduce the minimum inflation parameter from 7% to 0%. If passed, once the staking ratio reaches 67%, the inflation rate will approach 0% at a pace of 1% per year.
· Gauntlet Tokenomics Redesign: Phase one research found that ATOM's core issue is not inflation itself but the distribution and usage of new tokens. Phase two will focus on dynamic inflation, reducing liquidity rewards, and expanding staking utility.
Core logic of the reform: Shift ATOM from "paying validators through issuance" to "buying back and burning with protocol revenue." If the Osmosis buyback and zero inflation proposals are implemented, ATOM's supply side will undergo fundamental changes.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓
#OKX全球资产便利店 $TRX has a real presence in stablecoin transfers, which is much more concrete than vague narratives. However, strong network usage does not guarantee that the token price will always strengthen in sync. If transaction fees, active addresses, and capital inflows continue, I am willing to follow the trend; if the chain activity is high but the price weakens, I will first respect the market situation. $BTC
$ETH
Non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30, and market volatility is expected to increase, so prepare risk control measures in advance.
BTC is currently still in an upward converging triangle pattern, with support and resistance conversion completed around 8.52. If it breaks and holds above 8.52 with volume, the rebound may continue; if it is blocked again, it may return to range-bound oscillation.
On the 1-hour chart, doji and hammer candlesticks have appeared consecutively, followed by a bullish candle. If it continues to hold above 8.52, the rebound structure will become clearer.
However, the current price rise is accompanied by decreasing volume, showing some divergence between volume and price, so beware of false breakouts and bull traps.
Currently, focus on the 8.52–8.31 range: look for long opportunities near the lower boundary and watch for pullback risks near the upper boundary; only consider following the trend after a true volume breakout and hold. If the breakout fails and price falls back into the range, be cautious of further declines. Africa's first bank has started custody services for crypto, with South Africa's Absa obtaining the license.
Simply put, previously institutions wanting to handle $BTC had to find their own custodians; now banks are taking over this role.
They support a wide range: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, and USDC are all included.
But I just want to ask: is this giving money to the crypto world, or is it coming to steal their jobs?
Once banks enter, custody fees will definitely be cheaper than native institutions, and compliance stories will be easier to tell.
But who are the competitors? Those crypto companies that rely on custody for their livelihood.
My guess is, short-term positive sentiment, but long-term squeeze.
What retail investors should really watch is not this news, but whether real institutional money follows.
If not, it’s just a licensing announcement.
What do you think? Is bank custody here to help or to take a slice of the pie?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $BTC $ETH Hello brothers and sisters, Coin Brother here. 👋 Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released. The market is expecting around 84K new jobs, compared with the previous reading of 162K. If the actual number comes in around 84K or lower, it could signal further cooling in the U.S. labor market and strengthen expectations for Fed rate cuts — potentially giving BTC a boost. 📈 But the bigger risk is a stronger-than-expected number, especially above 150K. That could shift rate e$ATOM ATOM technical value: The "external extension" of IBC v2 is the core highlight
Cosmos's technical foundation is shifting from "in-ecosystem interoperability" to "cross-ecosystem connectivity":
The IBC v2 light client is about to be production-ready, supporting Solana and all EVM/L2 chains. Ethereum is planned to be connected to the IBC network by 2025, with dozens of networks expected to be added by 2026. This means ATOM has the opportunity to upgrade from being "the security token of the Cosmos ecosystem" to a cross-chain hub connecting the entire blockchain industry.
Cosmos SDK v0.53 has been released, and the upgrade can be completed with just 2 lines of code, greatly lowering the maintenance threshold for existing chains. In terms of performance, the internal network TPS has doubled, latency has improved, and for the first time it did not crash under extreme p2p load. The SDK target of 5,000 TPS is underway.
Proof-of-Authority (PoA) proof of concept has been completed, providing permissioned chain capabilities for enterprises without needing to fork the SDK or issue staking tokens, which is a key feature to attract traditional financial institutions.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC after an afternoon of sideways consolidation, just made another upward surge, reaching a high of 87238!
Currently, the price is around 86696, with a 24-hour increase expanding to 3%, overall still maintaining a very strong stance.
The most encouraging news is that Absa has become the first bank on the African continent to offer digital asset custody services.
This entry of a traditional financial institution is a solid positive boost for market sentiment.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, this rhythm is very textbook. The "waiting for the moving averages to catch up" we talked about this afternoon has now fully materialized.
The short-term moving averages (MA5 to MA30) have formed a very full bullish alignment, with the price steadily pushing up, stepping on MA5 (86402) and MA10 (86227).
However, note the recent candlestick that surged high, leaving a clear upper shadow; after touching 87238, it was quickly pushed down.
Combined with the huge volume red bar at the bottom (bullish volume), this indicates that above 87000, some funds are taking profits, and selling pressure is beginning to appear.
The current situation is clear: solid moving average support below, resistance at the 87000 round number above.
In the short term, it is highly likely to oscillate repeatedly within this range, digesting the profit-taking from this sharp rise.
As option expiration approaches, volatility will definitely increase. Everyone must not chase the price when it surges; focus on the support strength of MA10 (86227) on pullbacks. Holding it means still strong; breaking it means caution for a short-term correction down to MA30 (84971).
Stay rational, watch the volume-price coordination carefully before making moves!Everyone was waiting for a big Nonfarm Payrolls number.
When the data came out: 29,000, expected 90,000. Previous value 162,000, unemployment rate 4.2%.
No big number came, but a big mess did.
The market reaction was even more extreme, it only jumped about ten points
That's it.
No reaction because this number was already priced in. Yesterday, PCE was soft, Williams dove-bombed, and the probability of a rate hike in October had already dropped from 70% to 25%. When 29,000 came out, the market had no new cards to play.
And this is two-sided. The zeroing of rate hike expectations is good for risk assets, but employment only increasing by 29,000 is itself a sign of economic weakness. One positive and one negative cancel each other out, so prices just stayed flat.
Another thing worth noting: the 162,000 in August, when recalculated using last year's seasonal factors, should have been -74,000, meaning it was overstated by 240,000. Such a big difference over two months looks less like employment moving and more like the statistical model shifting.
Also, even more tense than this side is the US Treasury market. Before the data, Goldman Sachs estimated that trend funds held $390 billion in bond short positions, with 10-year short positions at 99% of their historical maximum. If a short squeeze is triggered, yields will plunge, and that side will be the first to explode.
The data exploded, but the market didn't. This hammer blow will have to wait for the US stock market to fall.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
Market opens at 21:30, let's see what they choose. $ETH Bitcoin has finally pushed through $85K after spending several days stuck below the level. With nine straight days of ETF inflows and softer PCE data easing rate-hike expectations, the breakout has opened up more room for the market to move. If BTC holds above $85K, $88K becomes the next level to watch. A drop back below $84.5K would weaken the breakout, so the retest matters more than chasing the move. $OKB — $121.29 OKB is up 1.07%, supported by rising locked value and ongoing buybacks. If BTCDOGE turned mining into a game. When it launched in December 2013, its block reward was not a fixed number but a random amount between 0 and 1,000,000 coins: miners packaging a block might come away empty-handed or might win a million coins at once. This mechanism was inherited from its code predecessor Luckycoin, combining Litecoin's foundation with a loot-box style reward, adding the thrill of gambling to bookkeeping.
The random reward rewrote the miners' profit logic. With fixed rewards, computing power determines output, and mining is like routine industrial production, where small miners can only pick up leftovers from large mining pools; with DOGE, each block is a lottery draw, and even a single graphics card has a chance to hit the jackpot. The mix of threshold feeling and uncertainty pulled a large number of retail miners into the pool. Within two months, early tokens were scattered across thousands of wallet addresses, laying the foundation for the later community culture.
This design also represents DOGE's "joke gene" realized at the technical level: while others use code to pursue rigor, it uses code to create joy. In February 2014, when the block height reached 100,000, the reward switched to a fixed mode with periodic halving, ending the lottery era. But those two months of random experimentation had already completed the cold start—$DOGE proved one thing: cryptocurrency doesn't have to be so serious; joy itself can unite a community.TODAY'S JOB DATA KILLED THE LAST RATE HIKE HOPES.
Today, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, its highest level since June 2026.
At the same time, the US economy added just 29K jobs, while the expectation was for 90K.
Last month, the US economy added 162K jobs, which means the labor market is getting weak at a rapid pace.
This week's PCE data already came lower than expected, and now with the labor market getting squeezed, the Fed won't make a mistake of hiking rates.DOGE surviving its first decade was not due to tipping culture, but because of a name written into the code in March 2014: Kimoto Gravity Well.
At that time, DOGE produced a block every minute, and miners kept an eye on the profit charts, switching back and forth between DOGE and LTC mining pools. When hash power surged in, block production sped up, but difficulty adjusted on a 240-block cycle queue; when hash power withdrew, the chain idled, and the block rhythm was completely disrupted. Every time multipool swept the coins, the chain would stall.
KGW removed this window. For each block produced, it recalculated difficulty based on the actual time taken by the previous batch of blocks; when hash power increased, difficulty rose, and when hash power decreased, difficulty fell. Compared to BTC’s pace of adjusting every 2016 blocks, about two weeks, KGW’s response speed was two orders of magnitude faster. Even if miners jumped pools, the chain’s pulse remained steady.
The value of this design was later demonstrated by BTC itself as a negative example. During the period when mining machines migrated out of China, the entire network’s hash power was halved, block production dragged to over ten minutes, transactions queued up, and everyone had to wait for the next adjustment window. The same shock applied to DOGE in early 2014, without KGW, a single multipool withdrawal would have been enough to halt this young chain.
Later, during the era of merged mining with LTC, KGW passed the baton to DigiShield. But in the most fragile six months of $DOGE, it was this algorithm that held it up.People trapped in losses can't sleep well, and those who sold too early can't sleep even better.
Losing money is certain, but selling too early means missing out. The mind stubbornly counts what was missed as a loss, replaying that afternoon of selling over and over. Most people can't stand this replay, so they take one of two actions. One is to chase back, buying the same batch of chips at a higher price, reasoning that it can still rise. The other is to never dare to sell again, holding even if it rises, afraid of missing out again. The former gets more and more expensive, the latter turns floating profits into a roller coaster.
Both actions stem from the same root: judging the correctness of the sale by the later price. If the price goes up, you judge that you sold wrong, but this judgment is flawed. At the moment of selling, you only have the information at that time; information that appears later cannot serve as evidence.
I've sold too early several times. Looking back, only once was the sale truly necessary; the other times the reasons didn't change, I was simply shaken by a few bearish candles. So now, when judging whether a sale was right or wrong, I only rely on the reasons at the moment of the decision. Where the price goes afterward doesn't count as a mistake in that decision.
$SOL is the easiest to sell too early this way. The sideways trading unsettles people; seeing no movement makes them want to switch to something else. Price fluctuations themselves shouldn't trigger selling.
After selling, just remove this stock from your watchlist. Watching it only causes discomfort each time. No matter how much it rises, it has nothing to do with you anymore. $BTC US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
This nonfarm payrolls report was a major surprise to the downside, with only 29,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, combined with downward revisions to employment data from the previous two months, signaling a cooling in the US labor market all at once. Wage growth also weakened simultaneously, easing some of the inflationary pressure from rising salaries. The market immediately lowered the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates in October, causing the US dollar and long-term US Treasury yields to fall rapidly, giving risk assets a short-term boost. However, it is important to distinguish that weakening employment does not mean the inflation problem is resolved. The Fed is currently monitoring two fronts: weaker employment will limit further rate hike space, but as long as core inflation does not show a clear decline, policy is unlikely to quickly shift to easing. This data mainly delays the timing of rate hikes rather than opening the door to rate cuts directly. On the market front, macro-sensitive assets like gold and BTC have seen a short-term rally driven by this data, but it is a data-driven pulse rebound. Going forward, market attention will immediately shift to the PCE inflation indicator; if inflation remains stubborn, the sustainability of this asset rebound will be greatly diminished. Macro trading has entered a phase of alternating data battles; do not overbet on a trend reversal based on a single weak nonfarm payroll report. Focus on subsequent inflation readings and statements from Federal Reserve officials. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%