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Mocked by the crowd yesterday, today I perfectly profited 56%: 36U challenged 360U, first short position on CAP
Yesterday I said to short $CAP, many brothers still thought I was wrong and believed I would get liquidated.
But how about now?
This drop was completely within my expectations, and I perfectly profited 56%.
Shorting understood, this profit was well deserved.
I entered the short at 0.0825, and now it has started to gain significant profit.
Currently, I do not plan to exit.
Why am I not exiting?
Because I think the downside space has already opened, and the downtrend still has a lot of room.
For altcoins like this, once they start to drop, continuous declines are very likely to follow.
The price has now reached 0.0665, dropping straight down from yesterday's 0.08888, with bulls offering no resistance.
My stop loss is still set at 0.087, and my take profit is initially set at 0.06; if it breaks below that, I will look at 0.05. The risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
I want to let this profit continue to run.
$BTC
$ETH
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 BTC
SEC suddenly loosens crypto custody
Wall Street funds can finally access BTC more easily
Brothers
On October 1st
SEC dropped another bomb
Proposed new rules
Created a crypto custody framework for registered investment advisors and regulated funds
The core is one point
Under certain conditions
Investment advisors can self-custody clients' crypto assets
This clears a major obstacle for institutional entry
Old rules required investment advisors' clients' crypto assets
Must be handed over to compliant third-party custodians
This proposal lifts restrictions
Registered investment advisors meeting strict security conditions
Can self-custody clients' crypto assets
No longer forced to use third-party qualified custodians
Previously many institutions wanted to buy BTC, ETH assets
Not because they didn't want to buy
But after buying
Where to store the coins? Who manages them? How to ensure compliance?
Regulatory rules have always been vague
So many institutions hesitated to enter the market
Now SEC's proposal
Allows, under conditions
Investment advisors and funds to adopt new crypto custody methods
Can use qualified state trust companies for custody
In some cases, institutions are also allowed to self-custody crypto assets
This is an important step paving the way for institutional entry
Lowering the threshold for traditional institutions entering crypto
Previously many traditional asset managers were stuck at custody
After the new rules are implemented
More RIAs will be able to allocate crypto assets to high-net-worth clients
Good news, the direction is now clear
Crypto assets are moving from alternative investments into the traditional financial system
But for now, it is still just a proposal BTC current price 86368 has firmly held the 86,000 level from yesterday, short-term moving averages are trending upward, and the MACD histogram is still expanding. 24-hour long position liquidations reached 392 million, Bitcoin itself liquidations at 107 million; after the long leverage was cleared, the active selling pressure above has eased.
On the liquidation chart, the 84800 to 85500 range is the trapped short position zone. As long as it does not fall back below the lower edge of this area, the bulls still hold the initiative.
Just placed the meal on the security desk, the order reminder call and market push notifications rang simultaneously, no time to look closely, placing orders as planned.
Long entry zone is 86000 to 86400, stop loss defense at 84600; a break below indicates the short squeeze structure is broken. First take profit target is 87800, after breaking through, look to 89500. If it surges to 89500 with volume but stalls, take full profit and exit.
$BTC
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
@OKX星球 Surviving every cycle is the true mark of a winner
The market never lacks stories; what it lacks is the perseverance to endure cycles. Every surge is met with cries of "this time it's different," but after several bull and bear markets, it becomes clear: the assets that truly survive don’t rely on whitepapers or hype.
BTC doesn’t need narratives. Hash power is its moat, consensus is its pricing power. Bubbles are shattered time and again, leaving only the ballast behind.
ETH has been challenged by countless "killers," yet developers, TVL, and standard-setting influence have always remained in its hands. It’s the foundation of Web3 that you can’t bypass.
SOL doesn’t play with flashy concepts; it uses low fees and high throughput to firmly attract high-frequency trading and on-chain activity. This is a hard breakthrough, not soft marketing.
OKB is no longer just a simple platform token. With total supply locked and the X Layer ecosystem, it has transformed from a stake certificate into a layer-two gas and ecosystem gateway, anchoring value far more solidly than projects with arbitrary token issuance.
Don’t fantasize about getting rich from a single coin. Combining core assets from various sectors is the solution to controlling drawdowns and navigating volatility. Everyone can be a stock god in a bull market; it’s in the bear market that you see who’s swimming naked. The real winners aren’t those who bet on a single surge, but those who survive every cycle.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ZEC $DASH
As we said yesterday, ZEC indeed stopped around 1300 at 1305. Brothers who entered long positions, hold on and wait for a second confirmation. Add positions on a pullback near 1350. It can also directly rally and stabilize above 1400, where adding positions is also possible. Be cautious about shorting ZEC at this stage.
For DASH with a cost basis around 60, definitely hold on and wait for takeoff. It hasn't started to rally yet. It's quite normal for DASH to rally tens of dollars in a day, and when it rallies, it happens quickly. Don't get shaken off your position.The SEC dropped something yesterday. When I saw it, I was eating, and my chopsticks paused for a moment.
The new proposed rule says that registered investment advisors and regulated funds will no longer be required to hand over clients' crypto assets to third-party compliant custodians. As long as they meet a set of strict security conditions, the advisors can custody the assets themselves.
What does this mean? Previously, Wall Street money wanting to enter BTC in large amounts was stuck at the "who will custody it" hurdle, with compliance costs being terrifyingly high. Now the threshold has been lowered, effectively clearing a path for institutions to rush in. To put it plainly: before, they couldn't get in because the procedures were complicated and there was no custody solution; now that obstacle has been removed.
BTC is currently priced around 86,400. If this news is truly realized with real money, that would be something. It's definitely more reliable than those guys who keep shouting "the whales are going to dump" every day.
My first reaction is respect—the compliance wall is being dismantled brick by brick. $BTC Green hair is a perfect example of what happens when you rush into trades with extreme leverage and the market moves against you.
On BTC, you opened 75x isolated and 100x cross longs above $84K. $BTC fell less than 1%, roughly $700–$800, yet you lost over 3,000 USDT. One trade dropped 71%, the other 60%. At 75x–100x, tiny moves can erase your margin fast.
On $ETH you used 100x isolated with a 30 ETH long at $2,693. A drop to $2,678 wiped nearly 62% of your margin. This is gambling on direction$AVGO has dropped from nearly 490 all the way down to around 350. The market is now starting to treat the Anthropic matter as a new risk point, but I actually think this deal is especially worth watching.
Anthropic recently disclosed that Broadcom can provide up to $42 billion in financing to support AI infrastructure construction, backed by a five-year, $125.2 billion TPU compute power leasing agreement.
This number is no longer about "small customers buying a few chips."
By 2027, Anthropic could even become one of Broadcom's largest Compute customers. In other words, AVGO is now doing more than just designing Custom Silicon for giants like Google and Meta; it is beginning to directly participate in infrastructure financing for next-generation AI companies.
Of course, this is not purely positive news.
I completely understand why the market is worried: you are selling chips to customers on one hand, and lending them money to buy your own products on the other. So how much of this revenue truly comes from independent end-user demand? If Anthropic's operations fall short of expectations in the future, Broadcom's credit risk will be much higher than before.
But this is also one of the reasons I am willing to keep adding to my position after AVGO's big drop.
The market has already started seriously discounting these risks.
When it was near 490, everyone only saw Custom ASICs, Google TPU, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, eager to price in all AI orders for the next few years at once.
Now near 350, people are starting to ask about customer concentration, financing risks, CapEx returns, and order quality.
I actually feel more comfortable.
Because AVGO's true core hasn't changed: Hyperscalers increasingly want to make their own AI chips, and Broadcom still stands at the very core of Custom Silicon and AI Networking.
This $42 billion financing for Anthropic, in my eyes, is not "giving money away to the customer."
It's more like Broadcom is starting to use its own balance sheet to lock in AI infrastructure demand for the coming years onto itself.
The risk is definitely higher than simply selling chips.
But if Anthropic really expands its TPU clusters as planned, the revenue this company will contribute to Broadcom over the next few years will be terrifyingly large.
So at 490, what I feared was overly optimistic expectations.
Now near 350, I actually fear much less.
The company isn't so cheap as to be without risk.
It's just that the market is finally willing to lower the price because of the risks.
And what I really like to buy on dips is precisely this kind of moment.
#AVGOXRP is coiling. 👀
After the run from $1.00 to $1.70, price retested the 0.5 fib at $1.257 in mid-Sept and held. Now it's squeezing inside a falling wedge under $1.55.
🟢 Support: $1.22 to $1.26
🔴 Resistance: $1.55, then $1.75
A clean 8H close above $1.55 opens the door to $1.75. Until then it's a wedge, not a breakout. NFA.ETH rising means more funds are optimistic about Ethereum? I still need to look at another chart.
On October 2nd, a snapshot of the OKX price page at 16:56 (Beijing time) showed: ETH at $2754.89, up 2.57% in 24 hours. It's green, which indeed means it rose against the dollar; but "ETH strengthening" and "ETH outperforming BTC" are not the same conclusion.
My view: To judge whether Ethereum is the main market player, you can't just look at ETH/USDT; you also need to look at ETH/BTC during the same period.
If ETH's dollar price rises but $ETH / $BTC falls, it means it is still lagging behind Bitcoin. It may look like it's rising, but it could just be following the overall market.
If ETH/BTC keeps rising and can hold a higher position when it pulls back, then there is more reason to discuss ETH's relative strength. Note: relative strength does not necessarily mean the dollar price will rise; it might just be falling less.
Tonight, I want to observe more: after market volatility expands, is ETH following BTC, or starting to find its own rhythm? A brief few minutes of outperforming is not enough to prove that funds have fully shifted to Ethereum, nor can it directly lead to the conclusion that "altcoin season is here."
First distinguish between following the rise and leading the rise, then discuss who the main market player is.
When you judge ETH's strength, do you pay more attention to the dollar price or ETH/BTC?
#Ethereum #MarketWatchBrothers, after the clouds part, the moon shines bright; today I finally got a bite of meat. Even fly legs are meat. Recently, the market has been twisting back and forth like a twisted dough stick, and my account hasn't turned positive yet, but stopping the bleeding is better than taking a one-sided beating.
Today's strategy:
$BTC The big coin surged to around 85500 in the early session, just a breath away from the previous high. Those shorting probably got trapped again. I lean towards a daytime consolidation, with a possible pullback to 83500 or 82600 in the evening. For those wanting to go long, consider scaling in with a stop loss at 81888 and targets near 85800 and 86600.
$ETH The second coin's spot buying is slightly stronger, but the steering wheel is still in the big coin's hands. Yesterday's target was almost reached. If it pulls back to 2580 or 2520 tonight, consider going long with a stop loss at 2468 and targets at 2680 and 2750.
⚠️ The above is only my personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Risk is your own responsibility.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 A: During the high-level divergence consolidation phase, what kind of market will $BTC, $LINK, and $SHIB show?
B: BTC fluctuates repeatedly at high levels, LINK has capital support, SHIB experiences meme-style impulsive rallies, long-short divergences increase, and trading volume gradually shrinks.
A: High-level consolidation and sideways movement—horizontal length equals vertical height—should we just hold on?
B: High-level low-volume divergence might indicate capital quietly distributing; we can’t simply judge the market’s upward trend based on sideways movement.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Axin and the Gambler (Part Eleven)
The hardest thing in the market is not being right or wrong, but what to do when you're right and what to do when you're wrong.
That year, Axin shorted rebar at 4000 points with flawless logic. When it rose to 4100, he said "normal fluctuation." At 4200, he added to his position to average down. At 4300, with red eyes, he said "if it rises again, I'll go crazy." At 4500, he was liquidated.
Ironically, a week later rebar fell back to 3800. Axin was right about the direction but died just before dawn.
The gambler also shorted at 4000 points. He stopped loss at 4100 and reversed to go long. When it rose to 4500, he closed his long and went short. When it dropped back to 3800, he smiled counting his money.
Axin asked him: "How did you do it?"
The gambler said: "Cut losses when wrong, add when right. Six words you spent ten years not learning."
"But my judgment was clearly right!"
"The market doesn't care about your judgment," the gambler spat out smoke, "It only asks you: when you're wrong, do you admit it? When you're right, do you dare to act?"
Axin never lost to the market, but to human weakness—error convergence. Refusing to admit losses, unable to hold gains. Turning every mistake into a belief, every success into regret.
The gambler is not gambling, but admitting. Admitting mistakes quickly, admitting right quickly.
The market never lacks Axins. What it lacks is the top gambler who acts like a grandson when wrong and like a grandpa when right.🌍 10/2 Global Three Ropes: US Treasury 5.24%, Dollar 102, Brent Oil 100+, BTC still holding at 84,000
Tonight at 20:30 US September Nonfarm Payrolls (expected increase about 90,000, previous 162,000), the market is not "bullish or bearish," but being strangled by three ropes:
US Treasury: 10Y intraday surged to 5.34%, highest since 2002, closing near 5.24%. The long end hasn't really eased, indicating "fiscal deficit + supply pressure" still exist, not something the Fed can fix with a word.
Dollar: DXY stands above 102, a one-and-a-half-year high. Non-US assets, gold, and altcoins are all suffering.
Oil Price: Brent back above 100, US military deploying a third aircraft carrier and nearly 10,000 troops to the Middle East. Any stir in Hormuz → inflation expectations → rate hike pricing → risk assets kneel again.
But strangely: BTC hasn't crashed, stubbornly holding around 84,000, Fear & Greed index at 72 (Greed).
The reason is simple: ETF funds are still buying, shorts are covering, and the market is treating the "Fed Vice Chair saying wait a bit longer" as a temporary breather.
So tonight's nonfarm has only three scenarios:
Increase 60,000–100,000, wages not hot → Goldilocks, US Treasury slightly pulls back, BTC tests 85k+
Far above 100,000, wages still rising → rate hike probability rebounds, US Treasury rises again, BTC retests 82,000
Far below 60,000 → not good news, it's "recession coming," first drop out of respect, then watch for rate cut expectations
Beginners remember:
US Treasury above 5%, all risk assets are competing with "risk-free returns."
Don't believe "must rally tonight," first see where the data pushes rate expectations.
I'm not a veteran, just entered in May, but learned one thing these months:
Macro is not background noise, macro is the ceiling. If the ceiling doesn't rise, no matter how cute the cat is, it can't jump up.
Personal review, not investment advice. DYOR, don't use high leverage on nonfarm night, don't gamble with living expenses on data.Frame transactions allow accounts to define rules, but if the rules are written incorrectly, it can be even more dangerous.
Frame transactions aim to turn account verification, execution, and Gas payment into protocol-level programmable processes. Accounts can adopt different signature methods, set spending limits, combine recovery conditions, and even allow third parties to pay Gas, eliminating the need to rely on additional relays for every new wallet feature. It provides a strong foundation for $ETH user experience and quantum migration, but programmable does not mean inherently secure. The more flexible the verification logic, the more likely errors in configuration, malicious modules, and complex permissions will lock or release assets improperly. Wallets must clearly display "who can sign, who can recover, who can pay, and under what conditions it becomes invalid," and audits must cover the entire account lifecycle rather than just single transactions. The success standard for Frame is not having more features in the menu, but enabling ordinary users to experience fewer irreversible incidents without understanding the underlying details. As freedom increases, it must be matched with better default settings and verifiable boundaries.
The best default solution should allow accounts to have an exit path even if the recovery party is unreachable, the payer refuses service, or a module is attacked. Programmable security must not lock users into another form of intermediary.
The more flexible the functionality, the more conservative the default rules must be. $HYPE This ID's viewpoint
HYPE started from the 30-minute level low of 84.501, belonging to an upward continuation structure. After this round of pullback, it attempts to test upward again, waiting for confirmation of a breakout signal. Entry: Wait for the secondary level pullback not to break below the central zone ZG, and enter again when a bottom fractal signal appears; Stop loss: placed below the central zone ZD.
Chan Theory Structure
The low point of this 30-minute movement is 84.501. After the rebound, the current level central zone is constructed, with ZG around 90.5 and ZD around 87. The previous high is 93.874. The current market shows a secondary level pullback followed by another upward rebound. If the volume expands and it breaks through and holds above the previous high of 93.874, the upward trend continues; if it pulls back and falls back into the central zone range, the trend turns into consolidation and oscillation; once it breaks below the low of 84.501, this 30-minute upward structure is directly declared ended.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
The rebound wave at the bottom of 84.501 showed obvious volume expansion, with concentrated buying demand erupting, quickly pushing the price up. During the subsequent internal pullback phase of the central zone, trading volume continued to shrink, and the selling pressure gradually exhausted. This round of secondary rebound volume is weaker compared to the first wave of rise, belonging to a volume contraction rebound. To break through the previous high of 93.874, volume expansion is needed to confirm bullish strength; a volume contraction surge is prone to stagnation and pullback.
Core Observation
Focus on the strength of the breakout above the previous high of 93.874. If volume expands and it holds above the previous high, the upward market continues to expand; if multiple attempts to surge fail to break through, it is highly likely to fall back into the central zone range for oscillation. If volume expands and breaks below 84.501, the bullish view needs to be adjusted. $VVV current price is 30.073, up 10.66%. Looking at smart money positions, the long-short ratio has directly reached 307.76%, with long positions' profit ratio as high as 90.64%, and shorts almost completely wiped out.
This is a typical short squeeze scenario. Large short holders opened positions at an average of 22.54, now all trapped. As long as the price continues to rise, short stop-loss orders will keep getting triggered, further driving up the market.
The candlesticks steadily rise, with the previous high of 34.636 acting as short-term strong resistance.
In this kind of market, absolutely do not lightly try to short at the top. Shorts have not been completely crushed and liquidated yet; going against the trend to short is just giving away your position.
Wait for widespread short stop-losses and long profits to start cashing out, and for clear topping signals before considering betting on a pullback.🚨 The most dangerous signal is not a decline, but when funds start to turn around as prices rise.
There has been a change in the market these days:
Prices are still rebounding, but institutional fund rhythms have shifted.
🟠 $BTC:
Spot ETFs had net inflows of about $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive days, but after September 30, they turned to net outflows for two consecutive days, totaling about $173 million.
Although BTC is rebounding now, funds are diverging.
There is obvious resistance at 85,000–86,000 above, and 82,000 is the key short-term defense below.
🔵 $ETH:
ETH ETFs have had net outflows for 3 consecutive days, with about $55.4 million outflow on October 1 alone.
Previously, funds switched from ETH to BTC, but now BTC and ETH are cooling down simultaneously.
🟢 $ZEC:
Highly volatile assets are still digesting previous gains; when funds retreat, even strong coins need to find new support.
The market is now watching not just a single bullish candle, but who is continuously buying.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls become a key variable:
Weak data → easing interest rate pressure, funds may flow back;
Strong data → added U.S. Treasury pressure and fund outflows, increasing pullback risk.
The market fears not a drop,
but that you think the bull market has arrived while funds leave first.
The above is only a personal market record and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ZEC Highs Keep Getting Lower — Are the Bears Running Out of Fuel? Brothers, after carefully reviewing today’s $ZEC market data, I noticed a worrying shift. First, the long/short ratio: At the beginning of September, the ratio was around 0.3, with bears making up roughly 77%. At that time, the market was heavily short-biased, giving market makers plenty of liquidity to push price higher and squeeze shorts. Now, the ratio has climbed to 0.89, while the bearish share has fallen to 52.94%. In simSeptember nonfarm payrolls to be released tonight, rate hike expectations focus | BTC market forecast Beijing time 20:30 US September nonfarm payrolls to be released, market expects 84,000 new jobs and 4.1% unemployment rate. Daily Economic Daily reports... BTC, as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, focuses on data disturbances on Fed rate hike expectations. Key price levels: strong support at 82,000 USDT, strong resistance at 87,500 USDT. Three scenario scenarios: Nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations (new > 100,000, unemployment rate flat / downward | negative for BTC) Employment resilience exceeds expectations, increasing the probability of rate hikes, pushing US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening. BTC is under pressure and retreating, prioritizing testing support at 82,000; a valid break will further test around 79,000, making rapid market plunge. Nonfarm payrolls meet expectations (70,000-90,000, unemployment rate 4.1% | fluctuating continued). Employment cools moderately, monetary policy expectations remain unchanged. BTC fluctuates between 82,000-87,500, data shocks are quickly digested, no one-sided trend, mainly range-bound fluctuations. Nonfarm payrolls fall short of expectations (new < 70,000, rising unemployment rate | positive for BTC): employment weakens, rate hike expectations cool, and US dollar and Treasury yields retreat. Risk appetite is recovering, BTC is pushing for resistance at 87,500; holding above will open upward potential. Trading Approach Before Data: Mainly observe, no early heavy positions, high risk of non-farm payroll insertion. After Data: Short-term selling with unexpectedly negative news, set a stop loss at 878$CORE official node exit = project team abandonment? Has true decentralization been achieved?
This seems more like a carefully planned "responsibility shift" rather than genuine decentralization.
According to the official statement on October 1, 2026, Core DAO is "gradually handing over the remaining block production roles to independent validators." The official describes this as "another step towards decentralization."
However, the actual effect of this "decentralization" process is:
Shedding operational burdens: The official node exit means the project team no longer needs to bear the server and maintenance costs required to keep the network running.
Risk transfer: The responsibility for network maintenance is shifted to "independent validators." If in the future there are not enough independent nodes willing to take over, this chain could completely halt due to lack of maintenance.
Governance rights are not delegated: True decentralization is not only about dispersing validator nodes but also includes decentralizing governance, rule-making, and token distribution rights. Currently, these core powers remain firmly in the hands of the project team.
Therefore, the official node exit does not mean the project team "abandons" or that the network has achieved true decentralization. It is more like a strategic contraction, where the project team sheds operational responsibilities while still retaining control over core assets and governance.The data hasn't been released yet, but the money has already entered the market. Most likely, it's another case of buying the expectation and selling the reality.
At 8:30 PM tonight, the US September non-farm payrolls will be announced. The expectation is an increase of 84,000, with the previous value at 162,000. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%.
But BTC surged to 86,000 before the data came out, up 2.59% in 24 hours. ETH rose 2.43%, SOL rose 3.71%, and even ZEC followed the rally. The entire market had a rebound before the data release.
Why? Because the market is betting—the bet is that the non-farm payrolls will fall short of expectations. The 162,000 in August was too strong, which firmly set the rate hike expectations. This time, the expectation is 84,000, almost halved; the funds are betting on a data decline and easing rate hikes.
Before the data is released, the direction has already been set. If it is below 84,000, rate hike expectations will continue to ease, and risk assets will keep rebounding. If it is higher than expected, or close to the previous value, this early rally will be reversed.
There is another variable more important than the data itself—whether the August previous value will be revised down. If the revision is large, even if September is slightly higher than expected, the overall employment trend will still be weak.
My judgment: don't heavily bet on one side before the data is released. Wait for the actual results before making moves.
What do you think—will tonight's data be lower or higher? Let's discuss in the comments.
The above is a summary of on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH "Citibank Raises Price Targets, Crypto Market Recovers but Not in Unison"
Citibank raised the 12-month price targets for BTC and ETH to 113,000 and 3,028 USD respectively, acting as a catalyst for the overnight rebound. BTC climbed back above 86,000, trading around 86,401 USD, up 2.26% in 24 hours; ETH consolidated near 2,700, up 1.78%. Spot ETF inflows and institutional allocation demand remain the backbone of the bullish narrative.
However, the recovery is not broad-based. ZEC is trading around 1,333 USD, down 7.3% intraday, retreating about 21% from the late-September high of 1,698 USD. This looks more like profit-taking after a 253% surge from 480 USD rather than a trend reversal. SOL rose above 120 USD, up 1.48%, with about 7.7 million USD worth of shorts liquidated within an hour, showing clear signs of a leverage short squeeze.
On the macro front, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials have provided a breathing space for risk assets. But ahead of key data releases, capital is hesitant to fully commit. The current rally carries the warmth of institutional expectations as well as the restlessness of leveraged speculation. Citibank's price targets are a distant beacon, while short-term undercurrents remain beneath our feet.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $CT can't keep rising! It really can't rise anymore!!
Get ready for a big correction soon!!
All those coins before were pumped like there was no tomorrow
Now finally things are starting to feel off!!
Let's look at $CT first
The 24-hour high already hit 0.6365
Now it's only around 0.5929
Although today it still holds +23.40%
But brothers
The key is not how much it rose today
But how much it has already pumped before!!
From around 0.3402 it climbed all the way up
0.40, 0.48, 0.55 broke through consecutively
The highest directly touched 0.6365
Nearly doubled in a short time
This kind of trend looked really strong at first
But the further it goes
The more I dare not chase!!
Especially after hitting 0.6365
It didn't continue to push up in one go
Instead, it started shrinking below 0.60
That's interesting
Before it was like it was afraid you'd get on board
Now it's giving you time to think whether to get on board or not
That makes me more cautious!!
Now look at $AAVE
Same vibe
From around 85 it pumped all the way to 187.74
Today again +8.41%
7 days already +20.97%
30 days +46.12%
Daily chart keeps pushing up
MA5, MA10, MA20 all pointing up
Looks ridiculously strong
But the problem is exactly here
It has already risen so much!!
If you rush in now
Are you eating the last leg
Or just taking the bag from those before?
Who knows!!
$ZEC is even more obvious
Previously pumped violently from around 466
Highest hit 1695.5
At that time it was one candle after another
Felt like it would never drop
But what happened?
Now only around 1389
7 days already -10.63%
And price has fallen below MA5, MA10, MA20
This is what worries me most now
Many coins at their craziest moments
Always look like
"It can still rise!"
"It can still pump!"
"Correction is the time to get on!"
But when the real drop starts
It won't notify you in advance at all!!
Look at my $BTC short position
Opened around 74958
50x full position short
Now mark price is already 86333
Unrealized loss directly at
-76206U!!
-758.69%!!
Holding through this is really crazy
But precisely because the market pumped so hard before
I'm now more focused
On when these high-level coins start to loosen up
Of course
Loss is loss
You can't just think "it's pumped too much"
So it must drop immediately
Especially in this market
You think it's high enough
The pumpers might still give you one more push!!
So now my focus is simple
Can $CT break through 0.6365 again?
If it breaks through and holds
Then the strong trend isn't over yet
But if 0.6365 is the stage high
And it can't even hold above 0.60 afterwards
Then I want to see
If the brothers who chased high before start to panic!!
Can't rise anymore!
Really feels like it can't rise anymore!!
Before, pumped like there was no money
$CT, $AAVE, $ZEC taking turns to perform
Now what should rise has risen
What should go crazy has gone crazy
Next we see
Is this wave just high-level rotation continuing to push
Or is it ready to bury all those who chased in before
At the top!!
Will a big correction come or not
I don't know
But at this position
I can't close my eyes and chase long anymore!!
#BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously flowing out, capital heat cooling down
#September nonfarm payrolls announced tonight, rate hike expectations become the focus CT has risen eightfold in two days since listing, from 0.075 to 0.63. On the morning of 9/30 at 9 AM, it opened with a deep dip at 0.075 on the first day of listing; then it surged straight up to 0.63868 over the next two days. The current price is 0.60289, up 74.65% in 24 hours, just 5.6% below the high. At this level, two signals need to be distinguished. One is positive: on October 1, spot net outflow was about 85 million, yet the price rose steadily from 0.40 to 0.60 that day. The fact that it can still rise while withdrawing indicates light selling pressure and that the chips are held by a few. One is negative: the 1-hour KDJ J value is 89.26, already in the overbought zone; the price is above the Bollinger upper band at 0.59885; 24-hour volatility is 77.6%. Short-term momentum is nearly exhausted. Another point to clarify: market cap and circulating supply are both -- in the panel, and the issue price is undisclosed. Total supply is 1 billion tokens, FDV is already 600 million USD, but the actual circulating amount is unknown. The smaller the circulating supply, the greater the price movement leveraged by the same amount of money, and the larger the pullback as well. My judgment: do not chase at this level. If you want to play, wait for a pullback to 0.507 (1-hour middle band) before reconsidering; if it breaks below 0.416 (lower band), treat this wave as an emotional impulse. Only if it stabilizes above 0.605 is there talk of a new high, but the risk-reward ratio is no longer favorable. It ranks 4th in popularity, with many watching. Are you the one who caught this eightfold surge, or just entering at 0.60 ETH hit a high of 2778 today, currently priced at 2748. I'm watching OKX, feeling a bit relieved.
A few days ago, it was stuck around 2650, but today it finally broke above 2700 and even surged to 2778. This altcoin is showing more strength than Bitcoin this round.
I glanced at the order book; the surge to 2778 didn't hold, falling back to around 2748, indicating profit-taking near the 2800 round number resistance. The 2740-2750 range shows balanced buying and selling; if it dips, there are buyers stepping in. Volume is slightly higher than a few days ago but not explosive—more like catching up with the broader market rather than an independent rally.
Key levels for $ETH that I marked:
Support: 2720-2740, as long as it doesn't break on a pullback, it's still strong; if it breaks, watch 2680-2700.
Resistance: 2780-2800, only a volume-backed break above here can target 2850-2900.
My strategy: If it pulls back near 2720 with shrinking volume and stabilizes, I'll lightly buy in with a stop loss below 2680; if it surges to 2800 without volume, I'll reduce some short-term positions to take profits. ETH is moving with the broader market—if the market weakens, it will falter, so don't be too greedy.$SOON held on from a maximum loss of over 1500 to a loss of 500 now
It's easier to defeat an enemy in the mountains than the enemy in your heart.
I said I wouldn't hold positions, but with just a small loss, I couldn't bear to give up to the market makers and kept hoping for a turnaround, holding on longer and longer, becoming more reluctant to cut losses. The 100u position I opened casually ended up with a maximum loss of nearly 200u after adding to it.
The stop-loss price kept being pushed further away, and in the end, I just gave up and dragged it down close to the forced liquidation price.
Although it has dropped these past two days, besides a slight luck of barely escaping death, I mostly hate myself for not being able to firmly follow the trading discipline I set for myself.$ETH Here are some red-flag keywords for everyone. After observing for a while, when you see people like this, just do the opposite of what they do. Most likely, they won't survive more than three months and will repeatedly get liquidated. 1: Genius girl xxx / Genius boy xxx 2: Genius trader xxx / anyone who considers themselves a trader. 3: xxx war god / 10u 100u challenge xxx 4: Always spouting terms like dog dealer, waterfall, zeroing out, speaking like someone with at most a high school education. Summary: These people are highly emotional, obsessed with high leverage and holding positions, always thinking about quickly doubling small funds, treating the crypto space like gambling and dreaming of getting rich overnight, liking to open trades frequently but with win rates and returns that don't match at all. They might win many times in a row but only make a little profit each time, which they call "taking meat," then lose it all in one go. The last and most critical point: these people love to short and even treat short positions as a "belief," meaning they trade against the trend. That's about it. When you see people like this, just avoid them.Still optimistic about this round of the altcoin season in the bull market
In the past cycle, while BTC rose, Others/BTC continued to weaken, so altcoins struggled to truly take off.
Now the structure is starting to change, Others/BTC has broken through long-term resistance and formed a rare higher high on the weekly chart since 2022. If this trend continues, altcoins' performance relative to BTC may significantly improve.
The focus of funds in this bull market is also very clear: DeFi infrastructure.
If more USD liquidity, assets, and financial services gradually move on-chain in the future, infrastructure projects like $UNI, $AAVE, and $LINK will directly benefit from this trend.
Of course, this does not mean abandoning BTC and ETH. They remain my core holdings.
It's just that if Others/BTC truly completes a trend reversal, altcoins may usher in their own trend rally next.Volatility filters out participants, structure is set
The most costly aspect of a bull market is not the gains, but the choices made during pullbacks. A few sharp spikes up and down are enough to force those chasing highs out and allow the calm to complete turnover. The direction is hard to predict, but position sizing and discipline are always in your own hands.
BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, AVAX are the five cards I am willing to track long-term. Behind them are ecosystems and consensus, not just sentiment keeping them alive. The more intense the volatility, the better it tests the quality of the chips.
My approach:
Lock in the base position, don’t easily give up the core;
Use tactical positions to roll, take profits on rebounds, recover on sharp drops;
Switch structure, don’t panic sell if fundamentals remain intact, trim the weak in batches and keep the strong, refuse to go all in.
Swing trading is a side dish, the base position is the staple. Don’t panic on drops, don’t be greedy on rises. Macro still has disturbances: non-farm payrolls, interest rate expectations, ETF funds pulling against each other, ETH ecosystem is also gathering strength. Short-term watch sentiment, long-term watch discipline. First endure the volatility, then wait for the trend to materialize. $BTC $ETH
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 The $CORE project team has been continuously selling, which has directly led to strong doubts within the community.
On-chain community observations found that, as the "Core staking mining reserve address," the project team was able to sell 80 million CORE tokens in one go. Prior to this, this address only output about 570,000 tokens weekly for staking rewards. This abnormal large transfer has triggered strong community doubts about whether the project team can freely sell tokens from this address.
Although the project team proposed a "Revenue Era" plan in the 2026 roadmap, claiming to use ecosystem income to buy back CORE, their flagship product SatPay has announced a delay with no confirmed launch date. This means that the plan for large-scale buybacks through business revenue currently appears to be just an empty promise.
Therefore, in the absence of realized ecosystem income, the project team still controls the massive reserve address and has both the ability and motivation to continue selling tokens. #9月非农今晚公布, rate hike expectations become the focus. If the 84,000 new additions fall through, where will BTC explode tonight? At 20:30 Beijing time on October 2, the US announced September nonfarm payrolls, expecting an increase of 84,000 to 85,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, August PCE year-on-year 3.4%, core 3.0%, initial hiring at 197,000. Jefferson said he'll wait a bit, and the market is cutting down bets on a rate hike in October. [Veteran's Ramblings] Nonfarm payrolls don't just look at the headline 'new additions.' True experts break it down into four parts: new arrivals, unemployment rate, average hourly wage, and downward revisions from the previous two months. This expectation is 84,000, a cliff-shrunk drop from August's 162,000, appearing like jobs have cooled. But initial hiring is 197,000, and the four-week average is 200,000—ridiculously low, indicating companies are not laying off employees. Low hiring and low layoffs are the real odd signs of America's workforce today. Fewer new hires don't mean recession; it might just mean the boss isn't hiring. The interest rate chain must be this stringy. PCE overall is 3.4%, core 3.0%, still far from the 2% target, but weaker than the market fears. Jefferson and Williams have both said there's no rush, with the probability of a rate hike in October dropping from about 70% to below 30%, and Goldman Sachs pushed the second rate hike to December. Don't celebrate too soon—federal funds are now at 3.75% to 4.00%, 10-year Treasuries are still hovering around 5.2%, and the long end hasn't relaxed. In the crypto pool, the biggest fear is real interest rates on the long side. If short-term expectations drop a bit, they can't hold up and keep extracting liquidity from the long end. How BTC reacts is historically straightforward. Statistics from January 2025 to September 2026, non-farm payroll data releasesCoverage: gold, crude oil, AI storage chips, AI industry, crypto market (BTC/ETH), plus US Treasury yields, US dollar index, and the probability of Fed rate hikes. #9月非农今晚公布, rate hike expectations become the focus. #美债收益率频创新高, long-term interest rate pressure has not eased. 1. Core Points 1. The 10-year Treasury yield surged twice intraday to 5.34% (the highest since April 2002), but was pushed back to 5.24%, falling 6 basis points—this round of short squeeze sell-off failed for the first time in a rally. In other words: the sellers remain, but the buying forces are also starting to take action. 2. US stocks withstood yield pressure and closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.19% at 7666.45, ending a three-day losing streak; Storage and AI orders were the only two engines in the market; Micron rose another 3.03%, and Accenture surged about 16% due to AI orders. Simply put: money only goes into two pockets: "shortages" and "AI." 3. Brent crude oil surged 4.4% in a single day, closing at $102.31 and climbing back above 102. The suspension of refined oil exports by Chinese refineries in October combined with the war premium over tanker attacks was the main driver. This means: the tougher oil prices are, the tougher inflation expectations are, and the harder interest rates are to fall. 4. Global bond markets collectively demand debt: the yield on the UK's 30-year government bonds broke 6% intraday (the first since 1998), Japan's 10-year yield dropped below 3.126% (the highest since the mid-1990s), and Germany's 10-year yield fell below 3.6% (the highest since 2008).#9月非农今晚公布, rate hike expectations become the focus—84,000 new additions actually make BTC shake three times first? October 2, 20:30 Nonfarm payroll suspense fully resolved October 2 20:30 The US released September nonfarm payrolls, with the market expecting an increase of 84,000 to 85,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Referring to August's PCE year-on-year growth of 3.4% and core demand of 3.0%, the initial demand for September 26 was 197,000. Jefferson indicated no urgent increase, pushing bets on October rate hikes downward. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't just look at the headline numbers for this macro project. The expectation for new additions dropped from 162,000 in August to just over 80,000. On the surface, employment cooled, but the unemployment rate was still stuck at 4.1%, and initial claims from 197,000 were below 200,000, indicating it wasn't a crash, just slow. The inflation side is even more complicated: August PCE year-on-year was 3.4%, core 3.0%, lower than earlier expectations but still far from the Fed's 2% target. Jefferson said more time to read data—this is a classic case of "hawk-beaked doves." For crypto, the logic is threefold: First, if the nonfarm payroll is above $85,000 or even close to $90,000, the market will re-speculate on a rate hike in October, with US Treasury yields and the dollar starting to pressure BTC and ETH in the short term; Historically, BTC can double in the 30 minutes after the nonfarm payroll period during normal hours. The strong nonfarm payroll in September dropped 2.32% in half an hour, with long positions liquidated $119 million—leveraged positions fear this the most. Second, if nonfarm payrolls fall below 80,000 and both hourly wages and unemployment rates weaken, the probability of a rate hike in October drops further, allowing risk assets to breathe a sigh of relief and BTC to rebound firstThe important signal is not the intraday peak alone, but how long long-term funding costs remain elevated after yields ease. A 10-year near 5.2% still keeps mortgages and balance-sheet decisions under pressure.
The buyback and stronger dealer capacity may help market plumbing, yet they do not erase the macro hurdle: duration now demands sustained confidence from borrowers and investors.
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge Here are some keywords to avoid. After observing for a while, when you see people like this, just do the opposite of what they do. Most likely, they won't survive more than three months and will repeatedly get liquidated. 1: Genius girl xxx / Genius boy xxx 2: Genius trader xxx / anyone who considers themselves a trader. 3: xxx war god / 10u 100u challenge xxx 4: Always spouting terms like dog dealer, waterfall, zeroing out, speaking like someone with at most a high school education. Summary: These people are highly emotional, obsessed with high leverage and holding positions, always thinking about quickly doubling small funds, treating the crypto space like gambling and dreaming of getting rich overnight. They like to open trades frequently but their win rate and profitability do not match. They might win many times in a row but only make a little profit each time, which they call "taking meat," then lose it all in one go. The last and most critical point: these people love to short and even treat short positions as a "belief," meaning they trade against the trend. That's about it. When you see people like this, just avoid them.Everyone criticized me for going against the trend, but today everyone has gone quiet.
I shorted $UNI at 9.285, now it's 9.05, floating profit over 7%.
See, did I enter at the wrong position?
The market doesn't lie. It has been hammered down from 10.95, every rebound is tightly suppressed by the moving averages, each high is lower than the last, and volume keeps shrinking.
This is not a shakeout, this is a clear downtrend.
The real signal is that UNI on-chain in exchanges has piled up to a historic high of 113.9 million tokens, with Binance alone holding 73 million.
Smart money is moving into exchanges, are you still waiting for it to return to $10?
The macro picture is even clearer.
The October rate hike meeting is just ahead, and the probability of another hike this year is very high.
Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of 140 million in a single week, institutional funds are accelerating their exit.
With high interest rates weighing down, DeFi tokens are the first to get hit.
My short position is not in a hurry to close. Until the trend reverses, any rebound is an opportunity to add to the position.
At this position, do you dare to short with me?
$BTC $ETH
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 After BTC stabilizes above 85,000, don't chase the highs; focus on these four “back-row picks”
If $BTC retakes 85,000, I won’t chase it at the peak. The reason is simple: the range from 83,000 to 85,000 has already been digested, and I already hold long BTC positions. Now it’s more important to judge whether capital will spread outward.
$ETH: Consolidating around 2,700. After BTC stabilizes, ETH only has a chance to open the 2,800–2,900 range if it breaks 2,750; if BTC strengthens but ETH can’t surpass 2,750, it’s better to wait.
SOL: Around 118–119. Breaking 120, the next target is 125–130. During real rotation, SOL usually won’t just fluctuate by 1%.
HYPE: Recently strong, approaching 89. If BTC breaks through simultaneously and HYPE stands above 90, it may continue an independent rally.
ZEC: Currently weaker than BTC and ETH. After BTC stabilizes above 85,000, don’t rush to bottom-fish; first see if it can turn from weak to strong, or even lead the rally. If capital starts to spread, high-volatility coins will benefit first.
BTC is responsible for confirming direction; I’m responsible for finding the back-row picks that haven’t started yet. ETH, SOL, HYPE, ZEC are the next watchlist. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC. ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling capital enthusiasm. If nonfarm payrolls exceed 90,000 tonight, why might BTC get slapped first? October 2, 2026, 20:30 Beijing time: US September nonfarm payrolls added 84,000 to 85,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, August PCE year-on-year 3.4%, core 3.0%. For the week ending September 26, initial hiring was 197,000 and below 200,000. Jefferson said more data is needed, so the market is cutting down bets on a rate hike in October. [Veteran's Rambling] Don't focus solely on new jobs. Initial hiring of 197,000 indicates companies are not willing to lay off people yet; low hiring and low layoffs are the current reality. PCE overall is 3.4%, core 3.0%, far from the 2% target. The Fed isn't unhawkish, but fears further rate hikes will push long-term yields out of control. If nonfarm payrolls add more than 90,000, hourly wages exceed 3.2% year-on-year, and unemployment remains at 4.1%, the dollar and Treasury yields will surge. BTC, based on historical nonfarm payrolls, fluctuates about 2.0 times in the last 30 minutes of normal trading, making it easy to be hit by leveraged long positions by 1% to 2.5%. Conversely, if new payrolls fall below 60,000 and unemployment exceeds 4.2%, the market may not get excited immediately because it fears recession; At that time, BTC often falls first and then withdraws, while ETH and altcoins decide whether to follow based on net stablecoin inflows. For real trading, before 20:30, reduce perpetual contract leverage to below 3x, keep stablecoins at least 30% of total position, and wait for data to check DXY, 10-year US Treasury yields, and CME rate hike probabilitiesAfter switching to PoS, Ethereum no longer burns electricity fees, but it has added continuous selling pressure caused by staking unlocks.
$ETH $ETH is struggling to break the $2,750 resistance, with tonight’s NFP data likely to trigger major volatility. ⚡️
Forecasts center around +91K, but estimates range widely from 35K–180K.
➤ Above 120K: downside pressure may increase
➤ Below 60K: $ETH could challenge resistance again
Expect sharp moves around the release. Stay patient and avoid impulsive entries. 📊
$BTC
$ETH
#USJobsDataToday
#BTCETHETFOutflows U.S. Senator Daines has introduced the ADAPT crypto tax bill, aiming to simplify the tax treatment of qualifying USD stablecoin spending and provide corresponding relief for network fees not exceeding $10. This is still a proposal and cannot be used to change the current reporting methods.
But I really like the problem it tries to solve. Payment products can make operations very smooth, yet users may face a pile of transaction records at the end of the year. Buying a product and paying a network fee each require determining whether a gain or loss occurred; the amounts are small, but the accounting work does not decrease accordingly. The time saved by technology is then spent on tax record-keeping.
If the relevant provisions are ultimately implemented, the stablecoin payment experience will be more complete. Ordinary users usually will not learn a complex set of asset disposal rules just to use a payment method. Making these daily operations easy to comply with, I think, is more useful than repeatedly promoting the vision.
The bill is not just about reducing burdens for the industry. Daines' explanation also proposes extending existing tax rules like wash sales to digital assets. In other words, the payment side is preparing to reduce friction, while the trading side is preparing to close some regulatory gaps.
I am willing to accept this approach to discussion: change what truly adds unnecessary burdens; reconsider arrangements that merely exploit tax system differences. Now we need to see how the text is amended and whether it can pass; we should not prematurely celebrate "introducing a bill" as full tax exemption.
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT Options settlement data for October 2 shows 30,500 BTC options expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.07, a max pain point at $82,000, and a notional value of $2.63 billion. For ETH, 116,000 options expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.17, a max pain point at $2,660, and a notional value of $320 million. Analysis indicates a clear rebound in BTC price on the settlement day, with strong bullish options block trades, marking it as a relatively active weekly settlement day. The price has oscillated around $85,000 for over a week, market confidence remains very positive, and community discussions mainly focus on expectations of major coin price increases. From the main options data, this week's primary term IV has decreased compared to last week's IV, only relatively rising from two weeks ago, currently at a low point since this bull market began. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Yesterday's plan:
✅ Buy the dip at 5% drop
✅ Add position at 10% drop
✅ Go all in at 20% drop
Today's reality:
📉 5% drop: Let's wait and see 📉
10% drop: Feeling a bit panicked 📉
20% drop: Is there something wrong with this project?
📉 30% drop: I'm a value investor
The biggest lie in crypto isn't "the pump is coming soon," but "I strictly follow my trading plan."$CORE If the official team completely abandons it and other nodes join with free pricing, is that good or bad?
For CORE holders, this is more likely a disaster rather than a blessing.
The end of a "leaderless public chain" is zero value: a "leaderless" public chain without a core team maintaining it, without financial support, and without developers building it will ultimately become a "digital ruin." Its token price will only decline steadily until no one cares.
Liquidity trap: Currently, CORE has fallen into a typical liquidity trap. Although there are many holders, external incremental funds are unwilling to enter. Once the official team completely lets go, market confidence will collapse entirely, and even the smallest sell orders could trigger a price crash.
Exchanges' "foot voting": Mainstream exchanges will quickly delist such unaccountable assets for risk control reasons. At that time, holders will face the desperate situation of "nowhere to sell."
The conclusion is: For holders already deeply involved, although the project team "bleeds" them, their existence at least maintains the network's superficial operation and the token's listing on exchanges. Once the project team completely abandons it, what remains for everyone will only be a "mess" accelerating toward zero value.
From the "grand narrative" step by step to the final stage of "responsibility transfer."On October 2, the Hang Seng Index closed down 2.6% at 23,972.29 points, up 0.4% the previous day, but financial stocks were pulled down, with HSBC down 5.4% and AIA down 6.0, marking the largest single-day drop since March 23. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't just look at the pain in Hong Kong stocks—global money prices are hurting. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to its highest level since 2002, hitting 5.65% at one point in 30 years. Under Hong Kong's linked exchange rate, HIBOR is following the US dollar, and bank stocks should have suffered net interest margins, so why are they leading the decline? The logic is the opposite: with long-term interest rates too high, the market fears floating losses on banks' bonds, fears UK bank taxes, and fears bad debts in an economic downturn, multinational banks like HSBC bear the brunt. AIA fell even harder by 6.0, with insurance assets fully tied to long-duration fixed income. When the discount rate goes up, the embedded value model is directly recalculated. Southbound closed from October 1 to 7, only recovered on October 8, with no northbound funds as a bottom, foreign capital dominated pricing, and selling pressure was magnified to 640 points. Here's a strange thing, let me explain it first. How to map this out on crypto? BTC is not a follower of the Hang Seng Index; in historical samples, BTC has been correlated with a 0.60 correlation with the Hang Seng Index, meaning a Hong Kong stock market crash doesn't necessarily mean it will collapse, but the premise is that risk appetite hasn't fully collapsed. If you really raise the US Treasury long end, US dollar, and VIX all together, BTC and ETH will become high-beta risk assets, kneeling alongside the Nasdaq. With today's combination, HSBC and AIA double kill essentially sends the market that liquidity is collecting, not expanding. Don't believe the "digital gold" narrative when collecting liquidity; first look at on-chain. Exchanges have the most honest net flow BWith the silent US-Iran situation, where will the situation go? Early in the morning, Bloomberg reported that Iran intended to exchange nuclear inspections for easing sanctions. Although Iran later denied it, this contradiction between diplomatic and public information is actually a common occurrence. And now, the day after accepting US terms, Iran has yet to respond, which already says something! Looking at Trump's current large-scale military strikes + allied energy release + seemingly a fight to the death, I believe Iran is indeed feeling pressure. Judging by Iran's diplomatic pressure, Trump's reaction can be considered a success. #美伊升级风险再升, Brent oil returns to $100. But I really don't like Trump's "champagne half-court opening" stance. Trump has always wanted Iran to yield under the "gun's barrel," but are such extreme international rhetoric sure won't force Iran to take a tough stance? Of course, unless Trump is not applying diplomatic or military pressure but genuinely wants to fight, then at this point the question arises: without deploying large numbers of ground troops, how can Iran truly be subdued? Or by using large-scale military escorts + economic sanctions and blockades to ease energy shortages and trap Iran? But if Trump loses the midterm elections, how much influence will he have among U.S.-aligned allies? Will allied politicians still trust Trump? Currently, the drop in energy prices depends on Europe preparing to release diesel reserves, but it's clear Brent's decline is too slow, as several media outlets reported earlier this week about the resumption of pre-war Strait of HormuzBTC firmly held at 86000, ETH also defended 2700, so there’s actually some short-term room left. Honestly, the strength of this rebound exceeded my expectations a bit, making me wonder if I got off too early? Haha.
Better to pocket the profits first, that’s definitely not wrong, just don’t get carried away.
Let’s talk about some key levels. $BTC at 86000 isn’t just a random line—it’s right around the ETF’s comprehensive breakeven point, where long-term holders’ costs and concentrated liquidation levels all converge. Since the cycle low of 58000 in June, it’s already risen 45%, and the 50-week moving average has been reclaimed for the first time. So nailing the 86000 level carries more weight than it looks.
On the $ETH side, I agree with analyst Ali’s view: as long as 2640 holds, the pattern remains bullish. If it closes above 2700 on the hourly chart, the 3000 target opens up. Plus, this is the first time ETH has reclaimed 2700 since January, firmly standing above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, so the technicals are solid.
But don’t just look at the technicals. Tonight’s September nonfarm payrolls are expected to show an increase of 84,000 jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Fed officials have repeatedly said the labor market has stabilized and they’re in no rush to raise rates; the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped from 50% to about 24%. This data likely won’t change the direction, but if it significantly beats expectations, short-term sentiment will definitely shake. Conversely, the ETF inflows that had accumulated 3.1 billion over 9 consecutive days ended yesterday with a net outflow of 149 million—funds are cooling off, and this signal can’t be ignored. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still hovering near a high of 5.23%, and the 30-year yield recently touched a 24-year high; pressure on long-term rates hasn’t truly eased.
As for $ZEC, its price action is really twisted, often moving opposite to expectations. It crashed from a historic high of 1693 at the end of September, with whales leading the sell-off, dropping over 12% intraday. But if you look at the fundamentals, the privacy sector’s logic isn’t dead—Grayscale’s ZEC spot ETF has launched, and the privacy coin sector’s market cap has grown from 7.1 billion to 33.6 billion in a year, with $ZEC’s market share still rising. The problem lies within the project itself: the Orchard vulnerability incident from June hasn’t been disproven, and after the core dev team disbanded, governance has been unstable, so trust repair will take time.
So my view is straightforward: if it drops further, I’ll actually start looking seriously bullish. Not blindly buying, but waiting for it to wash out more profit-taking, to form an emotional bottom before moving on.
Don’t expect a new high all at once this round; take it slow, there will be plenty of opportunities. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温 Sisters, have you noticed? ZEC is really not doing well.
Today Bitcoin even broke a new high, but $ZEC only rebounded to 1380, not even holding above 1400.
So when Bitcoin starts to crash, ZEC will definitely plummet hard.
Look at the trend: ZEC dropped from 1493 straight down to 1305, now rebounding to 1386, still can't hold above MA20, MACD barely formed a golden cross below the zero line, and the red bars are pitifully short.
This kind of rebound just gives shorts a chance to add positions.
When Bitcoin rises, it doesn't follow; when Bitcoin falls, it definitely follows—and falls even harder. This is the characteristic of a weak coin.
Coins that rely on emotional hype, once funds withdraw, will keep dropping continuously, not stopping after just one decline.
They push up hard on emotion when rising, and accelerate the fall with panic selling when dropping, with hardly any decent rebound in between.
I opened a short at 1656.46, and my return has already hit 816%, but I'm in no rush to exit.
My targets below are 1300 and 1200.
This time, I plan to hold until it truly bottoms out.
If you want to short now, you can try a light position around 1380, set stop loss above 1420, and first target 1300; if it breaks that, then head for 1200.
No need to go heavy, set stop loss properly, the risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
$BTC
$ETH
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Currently, the account has an unrealized profit of about ￥9950
$BOME has already successfully recovered; if the data tonight is good and BTC holds steady, I still look at 0.11 or a nearby position for dynamic adjustment. This time, I won't be greedy.
$LINK has been oscillating repeatedly in a grid pattern, should be good for some gains. You can set up some positions at 14.36 or below; no movement these past two days.
$XRP might be a bit late, but if the price is right, you can still buy some; it hasn't risen much.
ENA went down again after the afternoon pullback; on the 5th, there will be a large unlock. The target price to try entering is 0.225.
UNI hasn't risen either; if it goes to 8.7-8.8, you can buy some. I sold my position at 8.78.
AAVE previously mentioned at 160 that it would push to 190, I forgot where. SoL, starting from the same point, is still within its previous high; I hope it can break out.
If BTC holds steady at 83000, you can take some positions.
(All are established coins, just my personal opinion) #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点