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$BTC has a bunch of negative news, so why hasn't the big coin crashed yet? 😂
4500 BTC that had been dormant for over four years suddenly moved,
Bitget was hacked again for $380 million,
C.Z posted an abstract green photo the day before yesterday.
Plus, everyone's been watching closely recently—
the four-year cycle, bottoming out in mid-October.
The most interesting thing now is:
everyone is waiting for a big bearish candle.
I don't rule out a drop during the National Day holiday,
so I won't use all my ammo.
But direction-wise, I'm still bullish.
Starting with a small position now.
If it really crashes, I still have ammo.
If it really rallies, I won't miss out either 😂
$BTC
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key point. Under macro sentiment pressure, SLX is under short-term pressure, but I judge this more as a shakeout near the lower range rather than a trend reversal. The four-hour level is still in an upward structure, and the pullback is exactly the window to observe the strength of the bulls.
Current price 0.06334, down 1.6% in 24h, lowest dipped to 0.0596 then recovered above 0.063, with a turnover of 4.73 million showing selling pressure is not extreme. Although the one-hour is weak, the four-hour still has 9.19% room from the low, the top ten order book buy-sell ratio is 1.18, buyers slightly dominant; funding rate 0.0081% is relatively neutral, with 29.056 million coins held and no panic exit observed. Resistance above is at 0.06451, only a stable break can hope for a breakthrough; support below at 0.06185 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears.
Strategy: place long orders on pullback to 0.06215, stop loss at 0.05935, target 0.06645, risk-reward ratio is appropriate; if volume breaks support downward, then reverse to wait and see. Position control within 20%, single trade risk no more than 1.5% of total funds, avoid heavy overnight positions before non-farm payrolls.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$SLX#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $SLX #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键，风险资产估值再度承压，ETH短期难脱离震荡。我的判断：非农前以区间对待，突破需量能确认。
24-hour price almost flat, highest 2720.99, lowest 2666.03, 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages still upward, but 3.31% below the 4-hour high, indicating strong consolidation. Trading volume 22.212 million is moderate, funding rate 0.0039% shows bulls slightly dominant but not overheated, open interest 575,000 indicates unresolved divergence. Top 10 buy orders 4435 vs sell orders 101, buy-sell ratio 43.93, short-term buying clearly supports the bottom, 2686 area is the current bull-bear dividing line.
Strategy: lightly buy on pullback near 2673, stop loss 2652, target 2717; if volume breaks through 2721, add position, target 2758. Position control within 20%, no adding before non-farm payroll release.
— Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$ETH#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $ETH The National Day holiday has arrived, wishing everyone account inflows and a peaceful sleep at night.
$SOON Don't rush to short in the short term; the momentum hasn't fully released yet, and there's a high probability of one more surge. I placed a long order before bed last night, and when I woke up, I found the trailing take profit had already triggered. I didn't check which level was executed, but at least I didn't stay up late. The 24-hour volume exceeded 100 million, and with $BTC leading upwards, the market naturally follows.
$CAP It's also not suitable for shorting. This kind of slow, steady rise with small steps is the most frustrating; a sharp drop may not come, but a short squeeze could suddenly appear. Either wait for a pullback to go long or stay out and watch; don't use short positions to prove yourself unless your position size and margin are sufficiently large.
For any coin, first watch the big picture. Since August, $BTC's overall position has shifted upward, with shallow pullbacks and quick recoveries, making counter-trend shorts very risky. The market is thin during the holiday, so there may be more spikes; light positions and setting take profit and stop loss orders in advance are more important than constantly watching the market.
Wishing everyone profits and good sleep. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Family, is this take-profit and stop-loss plan okay? I'm really conflicted, always afraid a single spike will blow me out.
---
Brothers, I just opened a long position on ETH, but watching this market, I feel more and more uncertain.
ETH is oscillating between 2626 and 2787. The direction is extremely unclear.
The area from 2720 to 2750 above is a short-term strong resistance zone, and 2626 below is previous low support. It's a typical night before a big move, with bulls and bears both waiting for the nonfarm payroll data.
I currently set my take-profit at 2750 and stop-loss at 2620, which seems reasonable. But what I fear most is a manipulative spike from the market makers!
The stop-loss at 2620 is only 63 points away from the current price. With 20x leverage, the margin is too tight. A single spike from the market makers can precisely trigger my stop-loss and then pull back. I've been hit by this kind of "targeted explosion" too many times.
My personal view is bullish, no doubt, but protecting against spikes is more important than just being right on direction. For this trade, either reduce leverage or widen the stop-loss, don't let a single spike puncture my confidence too. Brothers, give me some advice, how should I handle this trade?
$ETH
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 An average American worker has to work a full year
to earn one BTC.
And this is already an underestimate.
Before taxes.
No rent deducted, no food expenses deducted, no bills deducted.
It assumes you spend every penny of your salary buying BTC.
No one lives like this.
The real number is much higher than a year.
Everyone thinks BTC is too expensive.
Let's change the question:
How many years does an employee have to work
to afford the company they work for?
The answer is also getting longer.
It's not that the company is getting more expensive, but that their position hasn't changed.
Some workers eventually become bosses, but few.
Asset prices are not determined by wages; they are determined by those who have money in hand.
And that money is not wages.
I spent half an hour thinking about how to express this, haha.
So this curve is not about BTC.
It's about the position of labor.
People who rely solely on wages are getting further away from assets.
This has been true even before BTC appeared.
So the real conflict
is not workers vs. Bitcoin.
It's asset holders vs. those who only have wages.
And Bitcoin is just the latest mirror.
This BTC mirror doesn't make people grow old; it just lets you see clearly.
So it's best not to ask if it's still in time now.
We should ask ourselves a harsher question:
How many things do you have that are making money for you?
Assets are not priced by wages, so they get more expensive the more you calculate.
The mirror doesn't reflect BTC; it reflects your position.$CAP looks short-biased here, but keep risk controlled—don’t go all in. A short stop-loss can sit around 0.0073.
Repeated long upper wicks on the 15m chart show failed breakouts, making a reclaim of 0.07212 less convincing.
$BTC remains bullish in the 83K–85K range; short invalidation around 82.5K.
$ETH is tracking BTC closely—no need to overcomplicate it.
#BTCInflowETHOutflow Don't rush to FOMO: CORE at $0.02 aims for 100x growth, but first pass these three checkpoints
⚠️ For research sharing only, not investment advice; 100x gains are extremely low probability events.
Recently, CORE performed a hard fork destroying 150 million excess tokens, BTCFi's popularity is rising, and many are starting to FOMO, hoping $0.02 CORE will achieve 100x gains. But 100x is not guaranteed by a single hard fork; it requires passing three core checkpoints.
The first checkpoint is governance. Token burning only addresses surface supply issues; the structural contradiction of 21-node centralization still exists. Only by optimizing governance mechanisms and reducing node monopolies can the market's biggest trust risk be eliminated.
The second checkpoint is ecosystem. BTC staking TVL must explode, on-chain real assets must continuously grow, protocols must generate stable cash flow to enable buyback and burn. SatPay and various DApps must truly be implemented, not just remain conceptual narratives.
The third checkpoint is market. A super bull market is needed, with BTCFi as the main bull market theme, while breaking through fierce competition in the BTCFi track to attract institutional and overseas retail incremental capital.
The I Ching says the way of heaven dislikes fullness; perfection is hard to achieve in all things. 100x gains require multiple conditions resonating together. Before all three checkpoints are realized, do not blindly chase the price.Although the probability of a rate hike in October has been weakened to 31.6%, the risk has not been eliminated. Tonight's September ISM Manufacturing PMI serves as a warning.
Although the data is nominally weaker than the previous value and expectations, the detailed sub-items show:
Manufacturing growth has not significantly cooled, indicating the economy maintains resilient growth,
New orders have accelerated again, indicating future growth will continue to accelerate,
Employment has improved, with no obvious signs of cooling or recession in employment,
Input prices have suddenly surged sharply, with cost inflation reemerging.
Combining these sub-items leads to one conclusion — the Fed has room and reason to raise rates.
Of course, this data has not yet affected the probability of a rate hike in October, but it will become a potential data risk. If tomorrow's large nonfarm payrolls data shows employment growth continues, and next week's September CPI shows accelerating inflation, the probability of a rate hike in October will still be raised. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Macroeconomic pressure remains, but Bitcoin has not experienced a cliff-like drop; the reason lies not in sentiment but in holdings. With U.S. Treasury yields high, funds prefer to stay in banks and government bonds; however, ETFs and listed companies continue accumulating, and sell orders are being continuously hedged. The 84,000–86,000 BTC range above is a dense lock-in zone, where rebounds are often pushed back, yet there are buyers below.
Non-farm payrolls are the next big risk. If employment exceeds expectations, rate hike trades will reverse, and risk assets will face pressure first; if data weakens, BTC may leverage ETF funds to push through resistance again. In the short term, watch the data; in the medium term, watch whether institutions can continue to support valuations under high interest rates with real money.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC indicates that on-chain credit expansion is still accelerating, which is a moderately bullish signal for BTC in the mid-term, but I won't chase the price in the short term and will first watch risk control.
The 24h price is almost flat at 84121, with a volatility range of only 13121 points (high 84444 / low 83123), trading volume is 7.25 million, relatively light, and the funding rate of 0.0062% shows mild bullish sentiment. Open interest is 29,000 coin-margined contracts, not crowded. The 1-hour decline is -1.33% from the high, the 4-hour is still up 11.25% from the low, short-term pullback has not broken the position; the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.40, buyers dominate the order book, 83180 area is short-term support, 84470 is near-term resistance.
Strategy-wise, if it pulls back to 83210, lightly test long positions with stop loss at 82560 and target at 84420, the risk-reward ratio is reasonable; if it directly breaks 84470 without volume, wait for a pullback to enter. Position size should be controlled within 5% of total capital, single loss no more than 1.5%, exit immediately if stop loss triggers, no holding losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BTC#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $BTC If US stocks go on-chain, will stablecoins become the new dollar accounts?
Today, when buying tokenized stocks, recharging, pricing, and dividends can all be done entirely with USDT, without touching bank accounts.
Institutions want more: embedding stablecoins into the cash leg of securities clearing, with assets and cash settled in the same transaction.
But ordinary stablecoins still don't generate interest. What truly approaches the next-generation account might not be USDT itself, but "USDT + interest-bearing RWA wallet." #KellyFourCoinRadar #RWA $HYPE $LINK
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key #US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved #Iran receives US counterproposal, US-Iran differences persist
That needle in the early morning was deep and sudden.
SOL first surged sharply, seemingly about to break through, but then softened and fell back, with the price barely moving while leverage positions collapsed. In 19 hours, the entire network liquidated $98.63 million, with long positions at $42.17 million, short positions at $56.46 million, the largest single liquidation at $6.17 million, 5,834 people forced out, and a volatility of 4.12%.
BNB was no exception, jumping up and down, liquidating $52.18 million, with long positions at $31.45 million, short positions at $20.73 million, the largest single liquidation at $4.38 million, 3,927 people exited, and volatility at 3.76%.
This is called two-way harvesting. When it looks like a waterfall drop, you short and enter, only to be pulled back by a lower wick; when it looks like a peak, you go long and enter, only to be hammered down by an upper wick. The price stays in place, but accounts have already been wiped out.
$BTC $ETH $SOL The current cash flow perspective shows the market is shifting from pure speculation to utility demand. $BTC continues to attract the majority of capital, while $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP all recorded positive cash flow in the most recent week. This forms the basis to monitor a new capital rotation cycle, but it is not yet a confirmed altseason signal. $ETH needs to demonstrate ecosystem activity, $SOL needs to maintain on-chain growth, and $XRP needs to expand payments and liquidity. Traders should prioritize data $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP represent four different cash flow categories. $BTC is the market confidence gauge; $ETH reflects ecosystem participation; $SOL is often sensitive to risk appetite; $XRP is strongly influenced by cash flow and its own narrative. When $BTC moves sideways, altcoins don't necessarily rise. Look for coins with improving volume, strong support, and clear breakouts. Buy orders should have predefined stop-loss points. Price increases without volume: prioritize partial profit-taking. Manage capital, wait for confirmation, and avoid FOMO when momentum is weak.This is so bizarre! It's the 13th day of shorting, and instead of a crash, this market is slowly grinding away half my life.
It's late at night, looking at these three grid orders, I sighed.
The original plan was to hold for half a month to a month, and now it's day 13. BTC is still hovering around 84000, ETH at 2680, and my short positions are stuck in this limbo.
It's really tough. Every day I watch the grid bot diligently arbitraging with red profits, but when I check the total returns: BTC is still down 5.49%, and ETH has just barely broken even with a 1% gain.
This market has been so strange lately. Despite the high US Treasury yields and so many bearish factors, once the PCE data came out, it pulled the market up. BTC and ETH have failed several times to break resistance levels, but they just won't crash as expected. It feels like all the bearish news was priced in early, even turning into bullish factors.
Tomorrow is the non-farm payrolls. Honestly, I feel very uncertain. I'm afraid the data will be a cold surprise and wipe me out, but also afraid of another short squeeze if "all bad news is good news" happens again.
No more adding to positions, no stop loss. Just holding on hard, waiting to get through tomorrow. Anyone else holding short positions and enduring this? Tonight is destined to be a sleepless night.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CT has only been listed for one day, and the market has already started a "roller coaster".
Yesterday, just entering the trading market, the price once surged above $0.48, then quickly fell back. Now CT is around $0.44, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $300 million.
What's more interesting is that CT is not lacking in trading.
On the contrary, trading is very active.
But the price falling from the high point indicates that early funds are undergoing intense turnover.
At this time, when looking at CT, you can't just focus on the price increase.
First, see if volume can pick up again near $0.48.
This is the previous high and currently the most direct price resistance.
Second, watch the support around $0.40.
If the volume significantly increases when pulling back here, it means the battle between bulls and bears is still ongoing.
Third, look at the contract funds.
Currently, CT perpetual contracts have an open interest of about $3.6 million, with an average funding rate negative, indicating that short-term short positions have a notable presence.
So the truly interesting part about CT now is:
The price has already experienced a round of intense volatility, but the market's price discovery is just beginning.
Look up to $0.48, down to $0.40.
The most exciting thing about new coins is often not the first big green candle.
But where the market ultimately leaves the price after the first wave of heat fades.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $CT $ETH is not suitable for playing big Bitcoin or Ethereum this week, especially if you want to catch a breakout early, wake up soon.
Don't wear down your principal by going up and down within this 3% fluctuation all week.
58000-78000-87000, the market has gone through two upward phases, and altcoins have been speculated from MEME to various DAT treasury-bought altcoins. The next phase doesn't show any new stories yet, so you can start to take a laid-back approach to the crypto market again. Volatility will gradually decrease, and altcoins won't be very smooth either.
If you're not an all-rounder in the whole market and can't trade US stocks, gold, or crude oil, then you should reduce leverage and withdraw some margin for defense.
In a bull market, cashing out more is better; don't complain about small profits, what you hold in hand is real.$ETH Stop pretending, Ethereum, is it fun to keep baiting longs?
Hurry up and crash, it's been oscillating all along, it can't even break 2730 this time, the highs keep going down.
The strange thing is the lows are also rising, staying around 2680, now it's compressing the oscillation range, at this time a big move is very likely.
If at this time it breaks below 2650, then the real show begins, most likely directly back to 2500, delicious.
$ZEC The once hot coin is no longer performing, known as the little Ethereum of the three coins, a star mining project, now also shaky.
In the past two days, the highest rebound was near 1490, it can't even reach 1500, very likely the small bull run is over.
Currently, short-term support is at 1350, this level is still consolidating, probably to unload without letting the price drop sharply.
This kind of miner coin won't drop all at once, be cautious, take profits and run, miners want to sell, mining machines need to be sold, this kind of continuous income.
Before the bull-bear reversal, the trend won't change. I believe this bull-bear reversal will happen when Ethereum breaks below the key 2100 level, breaking this support will shake bulls' confidence and continue the bear trend Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, I'm still bearish here. From the small nonfarm payrolls, PCE earlier this week to today's ISM and S&P data, there's no need to elaborate much; let's look at it from another angle. On the spending and output side, it's clearly supply not meeting demand. With the same demand, input costs are real, but output hasn't kept up, so prices are naturally pushed a bit higher, which is another side of inflation.
Regarding the unemployment rate, the US economy is still expanding while the global economy is slowing down. US manufacturing is recovering, employment numbers won't be low, and imported employment is also increasing, so the unemployment rate won't deviate much; nonfarm payrolls will most likely increase. Trump is now unreliably shouting about expanding economic employment and super intelligence; as long as manufacturing recovers, supply-demand imbalance will ease slightly, inflation might drop a bit, but short-term pain remains and prices are still high. So I still see a 70% probability of a rate hike in October. If there's no rate hike, inflation will be like a short position check hanging over Powell's head, with no value realized. $BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Today, Liuda E saw two completely opposite pieces of news. First: Citigroup has sharply raised its 12-month BTC price target from $82,000 to $113,000. ETH price target has been raised from $2,240 to $3,028. The reasons are increased on-chain activity, an improved macro environment, and ETF funds flowing back. Second: This afternoon, oil prices suddenly surged, Brent crude returned to $100, and both US oil and Brent oil rose more than 2%. Gold and silver plunged, while BTC's gains narrowed to $83,300. In the past 24 hours, over 80,000 people were liquidated across the market. One called for a rise to $113,000, the other said inflation is coming back. Who should you trust? Let's first look at Citigroup's logic. Citi analysts say that considering three dimensions: on-chain activity, macro environment, and ETF capital flows. In Q3, BTC rose 43%, surpassing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 and leading gold by a wide margin. ETF funds are flowing back, and advisors and brokers are increasing their BTC allocations. These are all facts. But Citigroup's target price is 12 months, not tomorrow. Now let's look at oil prices. What does Brent at $100 mean? It means that input inflationary pressure is returning. The Fed just raised prices by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot says there will be another increase by year-end. If oil prices keep rising and inflation doesn't come down, the probability of another increase in October or December will increase. In trading psychology, there's a concept called "expectation gap." Institutional target prices are based on current information, but market prices are determined by current sentiment and capital. Citi said $113,000, but not at allPause in rate hikes ≠ liquidity easing
As long as US Treasury yields remain high
Money is still expensive, and risk assets are under pressure
What really matters for BTC is not what the Fed says
But when US Treasury yields truly start to decline$CAP I basically sold this coin too early 😭
The price just surged to around 0.084, having climbed steadily from about 0.064 earlier today, with a significant increase. Chasing it now is most likely to result in the right direction but getting stopped out by a pullback first.
① Why I think CAP still has potential
It’s not just a Meme driven purely by sentiment.
CAP focuses on on-chain credit, stablecoins, and yield. The protocol itself has real TVL and active funds running through it. This sector also taps into narratives like stablecoins, RWA, and on-chain lending.
So as long as the protocol’s funds keep growing, CAP at least has fundamental support; it’s not just a pump-and-dump.
② The current price structure isn’t bad either
There was resistance around 0.078 before, which has now been broken.
After such a breakout, what I want to see most is whether 0.078–0.08 can flip from resistance to support.
If the price pulls back to this range and buyers step in quickly to hold it, that means the breakout is valid, and I’ll remain bullish.
③ Why I’m not buying directly right now
Because it’s already risen about 30% today.
Chasing at this level means heavy short-term profit-taking pressure. Even if CAP can still rise later, it’s very likely to first drop to shake out those chasing the highs.
Also, this rally is more about capital rotation; there’s no particularly strong new positive news, and the price has run ahead of the protocol’s data in the short term.
④ If I were to open a position now, I’d wait for two scenarios
If the pullback to 0.078–0.08 holds steady, I’d consider being bullish.
Or if it breaks and holds above 0.085 with volume, then I’d follow the breakout.
If it falls back below 0.075 and can’t recover, I’d avoid buying for now, as that would be a false breakout.
So I’m not ignoring CAP.
This coin has fundamentals, a narrative, and a small market cap, so it’s very responsive when funds flow in.
But the most important thing now isn’t "whether to buy," but to avoid buying right after a 30% intraday surge where you’re most likely to get shaken out.$ZEC
Lately, looking at ZEC again, it really feels like its character has changed.
Before, this guy often didn’t follow the overall market pattern; $BTC and $ETH’s ups and downs didn’t affect it much, it ran its own course. But recently, it’s clearly started to sync with the market trend. Wherever the market moves, $ZEC follows, its independence is weakening.
This change is worth being cautious about. If you continue trading $ZEC, you can’t just watch its own trend; you also have to keep an eye on the rhythm of $BTC and $ETH.
Actually, there’s another interesting phenomenon recently. I wonder if anyone else has noticed that some Hong Kong celebrities have suddenly started hustling for money more frequently? Names like Joey Wong, Daniel Wu, and Edison Chen—don’t they seem to be appearing more and more often lately?
A while ago, I found it strange that even in my small hometown county, you could see Hong Kong stars promoting things. Looking back now, it doesn’t seem so hard to understand.
The market always has its own cycles. For ordinary people, the most important thing isn’t to chase opportunities everywhere but to first protect their own wallets.
Whether $ZEC will regain an independent trend now still needs further observation. Don’t rush to guess; first see if its correlation with the overall market can continue.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 It might be "alarmist," or perhaps a bit of "unnecessary worry."
$ETH $BTC prices are fluctuating between 2600-2700 and 82000-85000.
The AI "bubble" seems like a dark cloud hovering over the market. When it will "pour rain" is worth watching. It can be expected that when it arrives, the overall crypto market as well as assets like $QQQ and SPY may experience panic-driven declines.
It’s necessary to mention the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision: on one hand, long-term rates have risen to 5.6%, but the rate level remains between 3.75%-4%. Another period to mention is the internet bubble era around 2000-2002, when the Fed’s interest rate peaked at 6.5%, bursting the internet bubble.
Nasdaq then plunged 74% over a period. During the market downturn, most people thought it was just a correction. The investment habits cultivated on Wall Street made people believe it was only a "temporary pullback." Besides the harmed mortgage investors and leveraged investors, many internet companies collapsed. These companies were abandoned by the market due to lack of profits, triggering panic selling.
So how far are we from the AI bubble? Will it lead crypto into a deep bear market? At present, some call this the "early" stage, like the internet era in 1998, and AI today is not as hot as during the internet bubble period.
@OKX星球 @可乐Cola_OKX Tron Inc. buys TRX for 252 consecutive days, holding 716.8M tokens
Justin Sun's Nasdaq-listed treasury company keeps buying TRX daily under an $18 million dollar-cost averaging plan
Most New Year’s resolutions are dead by February. Tron Inc.’s is still going strong in October.
The Nasdaq-listed company, which trades under the ticker TRON, has bought TRX every day for 252 consecutive days as of October 1, 2026. That streak has pushed its treasury to more than 716.8 million tokens.
$TRX CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE
BTC is around $84K after briefly touching $85K.
But macro is pushing back:
ETF demand remains strong
Treasury yields are rising
Oil > $100
Dollar is strengthening
Key levels:
→ $85K resistance
→ $82K support
The bigger question:
Can crypto demand overpower tighter macro conditions?
Watching BTC, ETF flows, ETH/SOL strength, yields & the dollar.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext 🟡 THE MAIN BATTLE: $84.9K–$85.6K
This is the area I’m watching most closely.
BTC has already tested the mid-$85K region recently, but the important question now isn't whether Bitcoin can wick above $85K. It is whether price can close above it and turn that resistance into support.
The current technical map puts the first resistance near $84.9K, followed by $86.3K–$86.8K. Above that, the next major technical area is around $87.4K–$87.9K.
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #BTCInflowETHOutflow In my opinion, $BTC is more profitable than forming LPs. A simpler method is
Gold between 4000 and 4100
Bitcoin below 75,000
Open a 3x leverage, hold for at least a year
If your principal is at least two to three hundred thousand,
it's very rewarding
Some group members asked me if ordinary people should pursue a high win rate
Since they are ordinary people, why should they have a high win rate?
The secret for ordinary people to make big money
Heavy positions, low leverage, long holding, good targets This is really dangerous now,
not only ETH, but all 12 BTC ETF products have also started net outflows.
Yesterday, it was said that on the 29th, ETH ETF ended a seven-day net inflow streak and began net outflows.
Looking at today's data, none of the 12 BTC ETF products had net inflows yesterday, ending a nine-day net inflow streak;
This is actually a very dangerous signal,
because a large part of this rally was supported by institutional funds,
now institutions are starting to withdraw and defend, combined with high U.S. Treasury yields, a relatively strong dollar, and the retreat of external buying in risk assets, which may cause this rally to collapse directly.
However, fortunately, last week's large inflows have not been fully withdrawn yet, and BTC ETF still had net inflows in the past five days,
so it cannot yet be called a crash signal, only that high-level funds are shifting from offense to defense.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to reduce leverage first and not chase breakouts.
$BTC: Resistance above $85,000, reduce positions again if $82,500 is lost, do not add leverage on rebounds.
$ETH: Consider weak if it cannot hold $2,600, reduce positions on rebounds, do not catch the first drop.
As for altcoins, when ETFs and major coins turn out together, altcoins usually fall later and deeper, leaving only the mainstream with volume; cut illiquid small coins, and reduce contract leverage to a level that can be held overnight.
One day of outflow does not determine the top, but the first bearish candle after continuous inflows ends is worth shifting positions from offense to defense. #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 10u position Week 2
First NEAR short position (in progress)
Still following the four principles for opening a position
1. Do not open a position if it is not a key support or resistance level
Observing Chart 1, the 1h chart of NEAR shows a strong resistance level around 5.4, so when it reaches 5.4 again, observe the formation of a small double top and a pullback to EMA20, meeting the conditions for opening a short position
2. Do not open a position without a signal
After the small double top appears, a short signal candle emerges and follows well
3. Do not open a position if a stop loss cannot be found
The stop loss is near the double top at 5.4
4. Do not open a position if the stop loss is too large or the risk-reward ratio is too small
The take profit is near the start of the uptrend at 4.5, with a risk-reward ratio of 6:1 📰 【Live Update: Bitcoin hovers around $84,000 ahead of Friday's US jobs report】
BTC is stuck at this level waiting for macro data, and the market sentiment is a bit conflicted. Those chasing small gains keep interacting, while the Meme crowd tends to pump and dump quickly. Don't get too hyped before the data drops; save your position size and Gas fees. Are you grinding through tasks this week, or waiting to see the data first? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $LINK woc turned negative again
$BTC don't treat me like this
I believe you will drop back down
-11.04U
BTC rebounded from 82918 to 84444
Up more than 1500 points
Short-term trend turned bullish
That recent surge
Was indeed a bit fierce
Short positions got passive
Either hold or leave.
If holding
Set stop loss at 85400
Don't hold stubbornly
If leaving
This rebound of BTC
Volume is not large
Resistance above 84000 still exists
If it can't break through 85000
Most likely it will come down again
Turned negative again
Uncomfortable
But stop loss not hit
Hold a bit longer
If it breaks 85000
Stop loss and leave
Don't fight it hard
BTC
You better drop back down for me
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC, $BNB, and $AVAX can represent three different perspectives: BTC looks at whether the overall market can hold support, BNB looks at the existing funds within the market, and AVAX looks at the multi-chain DeFi ecosystem funds. Observing these three coins together, rather than just focusing on the rise and fall of a single coin, helps distinguish whether it is a broad market rally or an independent single-chain rally.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Single Coin Contract Fluctuation｜Last 15 Minutes
$SOON is rising, with active buying and selling close, and positions shrinking simultaneously: fifteen-minute price +0.12%, active buying 45.9%, position volume -2.03%. Short-term price is relatively strong, but the signal for increased positions following the rise has not yet formed.Post-quantum cryptography upgrades are a long-term must for Ethereum. Once quantum computers mature, the existing signature systems will become invalid. The community is already proactively researching corresponding EIP proposals. $ETH $ZEC slid from 1697 down to 1409, still dreaming of going back to 2000? First, let's look at the current reality.
On-chain signals are very clear: whales are accelerating their exit. On September 28, a large holder directly placed a limit sell order for 15,000 ZEC, dumping about 23 million USD; on September 29, another address liquidated 25,001 coins, bought at 425 USD, pocketing about 27 million USD in profit.
The ETF side is also retreating. Grayscale ZCSH saw a net outflow of 30.24 million yesterday, marking the largest single-day outflow in history, basically returning all previous inflows.
The macro environment is also unfavorable. The October 2 non-farm payroll expectation is only 84,000, far below the previous 162,000, compounded by PCE data. Once economic data weakens, risk assets usually bear the pressure first.
In terms of operation: around the current price of 1409, you can lightly try shorting, with a stop loss at 1460. The first target is 1355; if it breaks below, continue to watch 1300. Keep position size within 20%, leverage no more than 10x. #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 【ETH Market Snapshot】Current price 2677, basis -1.47%, long-short ratio 1.48, funding rate 0.008%. Futures discount combined with still crowded longs, derivatives structure biased bearish. Price broke below SMA7 (2691), currently stuck above EMA12 (2658), short-term entering a critical watershed. Active buy-sell ratio is weak, ETF inflows slow down, spot incremental volume insufficient; but open interest contracts dropped to low levels, leverage clearing is relatively thorough, limiting the depth of a sharp decline. Today's focus: breaking below 2658 likely tests 2629, extreme case 2597; if volume recovers above 2691, then there is a chance to challenge 2747-2780. Strategy: do not chase longs, wait for support confirmation or breakout signals. Under low OI, the market may drift down with oscillation rather than a waterfall drop. Risk warning: control position size, avoid high leverage. For reference only, not investment advice.Dormant coins suddenly move, first distinguish between transfer and sale
When long-dormant $ETH is transferred, the market often immediately associates it with early holders preparing to cash out. However, on-chain data can only confirm that the asset changed addresses; it cannot determine the final intent based on a single transfer. Self-custody upgrades, inheritance arrangements, custody migrations, and staking operations can all reactivate old coins.
What truly requires caution is when dormant coins continuously enter known exchanges and are followed by spot selling pressure. If it’s just internal address transfers, the price reaction is usually short-lived. When observing such signals, the destination, splitting method, and subsequent holding time are more important than how many years the original address was dormant.
The cost basis of old addresses cannot be simply calculated by the earliest acquisition price. During this period, off-chain transfers, changes in custody relationships, or ownership replacements may have occurred. The on-chain address not changing does not guarantee the holder hasn’t changed. Age data can describe the coins but cannot answer the holder’s motivation.
If the coins continue to stay long-term after transfer, the market’s initial panic is often just pricing unknown motives and does not correspond to real selling pressure.
Old coins waking up is worth watching, but before heading to exchanges, they have not yet cast their vote.Account drawdown is brutal lately. I keep overtrading—shorted $ZEC right at the top. At this point, let the alts go to zero. 💀#IranUSDealStandoff #BTCInflowETHOutflow #RateHikeDelayedJobsNext Bitcoin's leverage has just dropped to its lowest level since 2026
Bitcoin's price is still around $84,000, but Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to this year's lowest level
Over the past month, the market surged, but traders have not significantly increased leverage again
This is very different from the previous rapid rise scenarios
Usually, price increases + rapid growth in open interest mean more leveraged positions joining
But this time, a large amount of excess leverage was cleared, and Bitcoin still retained most of its gains
Meanwhile, the 30-day implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains near the 2026 low, indicating options traders are not pricing in particularly drastic volatility
This "price rise without added leverage + low volatility" situation is better than the previous "immediate leverage buildup after a rise" market structure, making sudden chain liquidations and crashes less likely
This also indirectly shows the market is currently calmer with low leverage, possibly more stable in the short term, but it also means the upward momentum might not be as strong as we imagine
#星球日报 Finally, let's wrap up with the news and what needs to be observed next. Tonight's US data is out, so here's a summary of the results. All times are Taiwan time. 1. At 8:30 PM, initial jobless claims were 197,000, below the expected 200,000, and the previous value was revised to 198,000; Continued claims were 1.701 million, also below the expected 1.725 million. The job market remains relatively stable. 2. At 10 PM, the ISM manufacturing index was 54.5, slightly lower than the expected 55.0 and the previous value of 54.6. However, the price breakdown jumped to 77.9, compared to the previous 71.1. The market originally expected only 72 to 73, close to March's 78.3. Additionally, employment was 52.7 and new orders were 55.3, both better than last month; Construction spending rose 0.9% month-over-month, also above expectations. Overall, the economy has not worsened, but price pressures have become more pronounced. At 9:45 p.m., another manufacturing PMI also showed a surge in new orders and rising prices, reaching their highest level since May 2022. 3. U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Stocks. Around 11:30 p.m., the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries fell about 7 basis points to 4.814%, and the 10-year yield at about 5.272%, with yields temporarily retreating. U.S. stocks opened slightly higher, with the Nasdaq up about 0.46%, software stocks hitting a 10-month high, while financial stocks weakened. 4. Oil prices and Iran. Brent crude oil climbed back above 100 per barrel in the afternoon我們來整理一下操作上可以怎麼做吧 今晚初領失業金跟 ISM 製造業都已經公布，比特幣整晚只在 83,400 到 84,300 之間晃，其他幣的振幅也不大。看法跟前面差不多，大家就按照價位進場、止盈或止損。以下是五個幣的價位，圖都是日線。 〔比特幣〕方向：多 開多 83,000 至 83,500，現價先放一小份 獲利了結 86,000 回檔補倉 81,000 防守 78,000 日線上價格還在 5 月高點那條 CHoCH 線附近，今日區間 83,136.6 到 84,379.8，下影線比較長。 〔以太幣〕方向：中間，兩邊等 2,780 附近找空（未另給空單停損，自行控管風險） 2,650 小量試多，2,600 加碼 跌破 2,400 多單停損 日線上 2,780 是 Weak High，下方 2,360 到 2,510 是藍色支撐，現價 2,675 剛好在中間。 〔Solana〕方向：空 空單 120 附近，等反彈 補倉 125 出場 140 日線上 125 是 Weak High；今天最高 119.58，還沒到空單價位。資金費率仍是負的，留意軋空式的反彈，那正好是我們等的位置。 〔狗狗📊 $ZEC Valuation — Hype vs. Fundamentals
The leading privacy coin, $XMR, is trading around $540, while $ZEC has surged to roughly $1,400.
So what’s driving ZEC this high?
A big part of the move appears to be ETF expectations and strong market sentiment. But sentiment can fade, and once the initial benefits are priced in, the market may start looking more closely at fundamentals.
#DailyOrbit 我們來看一下瑞波幣的部分。 瑞波幣的看法不變，偏多，按照價位做。今晚有一則跟瑞波幣直接相關的消息確認了，下面先補上。 瑞波幣的價位： ★ 多單：1.5 附近。 ★ 第一目標 1.57，第二目標 1.63。 ★ 加碼：1.45，或再低一點 1.4。 ★ 停損：1.3 守不住就出。 先講消息。之前提過 Evernorth 這家公司的併購，晚上 10 點多加密媒體 The Block 證實，Armada II 的股東已經投票通過合併。交易完成後，Evernorth 預計拿到約 3 億美元現金，手上約有 4.73 億顆 XRP，預計 10 月 7 日完成，之後以 XRPN 的代號在那斯達克掛牌。上一篇這件事還標著待確認，現在算是有正式報導了。 這種消息的意義是：多了一家把 XRP 當主要資產的上市公司，長期是需求面的加分。不過短線上，消息出來之後價格沒有明顯反應，大家不要因為一則好消息就在現價追進去，還是回到價位上做。 價格位置的部分，瑞波幣現在大約 1.48，過去 24 小時 OKX 在 1.4729 到 1.5136 之間，等於一直繞著我們 1.5 的多單價位上下走。已經在 1.5 附近進Let's take a look at the Dogecoin section. The outlook for Dogecoin is similar, leaning bearish; no rush until the price reaches the target. Tonight's data and chip information will be added below. Dogecoin price levels: ・Short entry: 0.1. ・Add to short: 0.11. ・Stop loss exit: 0.12. Dogecoin is currently around 0.094, about 6% away from the 0.1 short entry price. In the past 24 hours, OKX's high was 0.09608 and low was 0.09341, with a daily amplitude of less than 3%. Two US data releases tonight also did not push it out of this small range. This kind of low volume, directionless market is the easiest to make people itchy-handed, but it's still far from our price levels, so the best action is to do nothing. Some may ask, since the price is close to the 0.09309 line, if it breaks below, should we directly chase shorts? My view is no. After breaking below, the nearest blue zone below is around 0.08, which seems to have space, but chasing in from 0.093 with a stop loss still at 0.12 means the risk and reward are completely disproportionate. Our short positions are designed at rebound points: enter at 0.1, add at 0.11, with stop loss above the strong high point; only then does it make sense. No rebound, no position—this is also a form of discipline. Technical aspect, daily chart. This chart is drawn over a longer period; the highest point at the beginning of the year was near 0.15, hitting the red selling pressure zone between 0.145 and 0.150, then falling all the way back. The current strong high point above (Strong Hig$SNDK rose from 1710.3 to 1797 in 3 minutes, then pulled back all the way after the surge, currently priced at 1734.5. A sharp short-term rally pushed the price up, but the bulls couldn't hold it, turning into a high-level oscillation pullback, currently holding the base position.
Now watching whether the low-level support can hold after the high point of 1797. The price is holding above 1721.1, not completely breaking the low of this rebound, but the pressure around 1766.7 above has been repeatedly tested without breaking through, with selling pressure persisting above.
The position is very clear. The short-term resistance zone is between 1766.7 and 1797 above the head; only by stabilizing here again can the rebound have room to continue upward. The first support below is at 1721.1; if broken, the current rebound structure weakens, further testing the lower 1698.1.
Regarding positions, do not add long positions just because of a low-level rebound, nor add short positions directly due to the pullback after the surge. Whether this rebound can strengthen again depends on whether it can break through 1766.7 or if the 1721.1 support will be broken.我們來看一下Solana的部分。 這個幣的看法不變，還是偏空，按照價位等反彈。今晚數據公布後，這邊把最新的籌碼跟消息補上。 Solana 的價位： ■ 空單：120 附近，等它彈上來再進。 ■ 加碼：125。 ■ 停損：140。 先講今晚最值得注意的地方，是籌碼。晚上 11 點 40 分 OKX 的資料，這個幣的資金費率約 -0.0041%，比傍晚還要再負一點，代表永續合約裡空方付錢給多方，空單比較擁擠；可是多空人數比卻高達 1.94，等於帳戶數量上是做多的人多。持倉金額偏空、帳戶人數偏多，比較像是大戶在空、散戶在接。未平倉量約 295 萬顆，比傍晚少約 1%。 這種組合有兩面。一面是空單擁擠，價格容易出現往上的軋空反彈；另一面是散戶接得多，反彈完往往又被賣下來。對我們來說剛好：不在 117 追空，等它彈到 120、甚至 125 再進，就是用別人的反彈來換比較好的空單位置。 那如果它不反彈、直接往下走呢？那就讓它走。沒等到價位的行情，本來就不是我們的單，不需要因為錯過而在低檔追空。現價 117 離下面 96 到 102 的支撐還有一段，但離 120 只有三塊左右，追在這裡，停損 140$WLD has fallen to the point where the most common misconception is: the more it falls, the cheaper it must be.
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are weak, with RSI values of 18 and 45 respectively. Oversold conditions can explain the demand for a rebound but cannot alone prove a trend reversal; price first stopping at a new low is more convincing than any statement like "it can't fall further."
The current price is 0.4841, about 0.70% above the 1-hour support at 0.4807, and about 13.22% below the resistance at 0.5481. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation is clear: only by reclaiming and holding above 0.5481 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 0.4807, then attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.4663. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.5712 is only a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
Will you treat oversold as a signal to rebound, or wait to acknowledge a turning point after the structure stops falling?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.Micron delivers a high score, so why isn't the market buying it?
$MU Micron's performance and guidance both exceeded expectations. The recently announced Q4 FY2026 revenue was $54.229 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 379%; adjusted EPS was $33.42, higher than the market expectation of $31.61. The revenue forecast was about $51.07 billion, and the actual performance also clearly surpassed it. The strength of AI storage demand has already translated into profits.
The next quarter guidance is even more optimistic: revenue guidance of $60 billion to $63 billion, with a midpoint of $61.5 billion, above the market expectation of $57.02 billion; adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $38.15 also exceeds the expected $35.40. Management also stated that most of the high-bandwidth memory output for 2027 is already covered by agreements. For the storage industry chain, this guidance provides new grounds for continued demand.
But you can't just look at the biggest numbers in the earnings report. The adjusted gross margin for the next quarter is expected to be 86.25%, slightly lower than this quarter's 87%; the company is also preparing to increase capital expenditures for FY2027. Expanding production helps secure orders but also increases capital investment, so future free cash flow, capacity ramp-up, and depreciation pressure all need to be considered together. Continued revenue growth does not mean every profitability metric will improve.
My interpretation is somewhat positive, but I won't directly translate the earnings beat into a guaranteed stock price rise. Hynix $SKHYNIX and SanDisk $SNDK are still flat and not moving much 😂😂 Looks like we need to be patient for a while longer; time will prove the storage sector's strength 😁