Innlegg

Yesterday, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a procedural vote. BTC briefly fell to around $75,900. At the same time, the Fed's rate decision is due today. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved above 5%, while rate-hike expectations remain elevated. When Two Answers Arrive, Who Will BTC Believe? Yesterday, the market gave us one answer. Today, another answer is coming. Yesterday, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act. BTC then fell to around $75,900. Today, the market awaits the Fed's rate decision. One answer comes from regulation. The other comes from monetary policy. And BTC is caught between them. More importantly: The 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, while rate-hike expectations remain high. So what matters today isn't whether BTC prints a huge green or red candle. It's: Where will the money go after the news? Yesterday's drop already showed us: Bad news can move price quickly. But a price move doesn't necessarily mean capital has fully left. So today, I'll watch four signals: BTC ETFs: Is institutional capital coming back? ETH ETFs: Is the capital rotation continuing? Stablecoins: Is on-chain liquidity shrinking? Exchange balances: Is BTC moving in or out? If BTC keeps falling, but stablecoins keep growing and BTC continues leaving exchanges, that's a contradiction worth studying. If BTC rebounds, but capital doesn't follow, that's worth watching too. The chart tells you what happened. Capital tells you: Why it happened. Today could be volatile. But I'm less interested in what happens in the first minute. I'm watching what happens after the news: Where does the money ultimately go? The market won't give you the answer in advance. It only leaves data behind. And our job is to look beyond the price when everyone else is watching the chart. Today, I won't predict the direction. I'll watch the money. Where is the money actually going?