#USTBillSupplyMayRise

#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% One hike may not be the end of it 👀 Markets now price a 55.4% chance of another 25bp Fed hike in October, while the 10-year yield sits above 5%. What caught my attention is what hasn't broken. Jobs, growth, earnings, stocks and BTC are still holding up despite tighter money. That resilience gives the Fed room to stay tough on inflation. The real test may be whether markets are adapting to higher rates, or simply underpricing how long they can last.

#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% The Fed just hiked 25bp for the first time in over three years — and markets are already pricing another one in October at 55.4% 📈 The dot plot isn't subtle: most officials expect at least one more hike this year. This wasn't a one-and-done 👀 The inflation drivers keeping them hawkish: energy (Brent near $108), tariffs, and AI infrastructure spending that's injecting massive capex into the economy. All three persistent, none easy to solve with rate hikes alone 🫠 But here's the tension — growth, jobs, and earnings are all still resilient. The economy is absorbing higher rates better than most expected. Which raises the question: are stocks and BTC pricing in "one hike then pause," or genuinely comfortable with a prolonged higher-rate environment? 🤔 10-year yield above 5%. 30-year mortgage at 6.95%. These aren't small numbers 📉 First hike in three years, October odds already at 55% — is the market right to shrug this off, or is the real pain still ahead? 👇

The real pressure on $BTC may be coming from U.S. Treasuries, not bears. With the 10Y yield above 4.8% and a divided Fed, the macro backdrop remains challenging. When risk-free yields approach 5%, Bitcoin needs a stronger narrative to compete for capital. $ETH $SOL #FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules

ING Netherlands made it clear today: the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are very likely to each raise interest rates once more before the end of the year — the market originally bet on easing, but now the path has reversed. Meanwhile, France's 5-year CDS has surged to its highest since April 2025, and long-term bond yields in the UK and Germany are collectively climbing. #FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #NvidiaChipDoubleOutlook

🚨 THE 5% LINE JUST BROKE — AND BITCOIN IS FEELING IT. The US 10Y Treasury yield has officially pushed above 5%, its highest level since 2007. Why does this matter for crypto? Because when risk-free US yields get this attractive, money has less reason to chase risky assets. #OutcomesOnOrbit

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries closed above 5% yesterday for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, signaling a significant shift in market dynamics. In Europe, 10-year French government bond yields climbed to 4.5%, levels not seen since 2008, reflecting the evolving eurozone debt landscape. Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year government bond yields rose to 3.04%, reaching their highest point in three decades amid persistent inflation concerns and monetary policy adjustments.

#LongYields5%NewNormal The 10-year Treasury yield has briefly moved above 5%, while the 30-year yield has climbed above 5.3%. Markets are reacting to a combination of renewed Fed tightening, persistent inflation risks and concerns about the amount of government debt that private investors must absorb. Mortgage rates have followed higher, with the average 30-year fixed rate reaching 6.95%. A sustained 5% long-term yield would change the valuation framework for almost every major asset class. Growth stocks, real estate and speculative crypto projects become less attractive when investors can earn a comparatively high return from government bonds. At the same time, banks and insurers may benefit from higher yields. My view is that “5% as the new normal” should be treated as a scenario, not a certainty. The path of inflation and fiscal policy will determine whether this becomes a durable regime or a temporary spike.

🚨 THE 5% LINE JUST BROKE — AND BITCOIN IS FEELING IT. The US 10Y Treasury yield has officially pushed above 5%, its highest level since 2007. Why does this matter for crypto? Because when risk-free US yields get this attractive, money has less reason to chase risky assets. #DailyOrbit

$BTC is hovering around the $76,000 level. US stock futures are up ahead of today's FOMC meeting, while oil is down. Pre-market stock trading insights: ▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.54% ▫️S&P futures is up 0.34%#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates

Gold's morning rise of over $100 is a clear no-confidence vote in the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike. Investors would rather own gold with no yield than 10-year Treasuries with a 5% yield, as that is not nearly enough to offset the purchasing power that will be lost to inflation.