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The market is heating up again, and the large holder known as "Vest Brother" has resurfaced with his positions.
According to on-chain/contract data compilation, this large holder currently has an overall position size of about $130 million, with all positions biased long, clearly betting that this rally still has room to continue.
Looking at the specific positions:
🔹 BTC: 40x leveraged long, holding about 342 coins, average entry price around $83,270, current unrealized profit about $930,000, estimated liquidation price around $60,470.
🔹 ETH: 25x leveraged long, holding about 31,000 coins, average entry price around $2,621, unrealized profit about $3.708 million.
🔹 HYPE: 10x leveraged long, holding about 158,000 coins, average entry price around $93.08, unrealized profit about $325,000.
From the portfolio structure perspective, BTC provides core liquidity, ETH carries mainstream coin elasticity, and HYPE belongs to high-volatility popular assets, overall representing a "mainstream + popular sector" allocation strategy.
Notably, when BTC previously dropped below $85,000, market sentiment clearly weakened, and many short-term funds began to panic exit, but the large position did not easily change direction due to a normal pullback. The relatively distant liquidation price also gives the position some room for volatility. Bitcoin's recent move is a good reminder:
A market can remain structurally strong while looking weak on the short-term chart.
BTC recently reached around $87.4K before pulling back toward $83K.
That's roughly a 4–5% retracement.
The question isn't “Is Bitcoin bullish or bearish?”
The better question is:
What level would invalidate the current structure?#BTC pullback after a surge, has market rotation begun?
What happened? $BTC and $XAU gold suddenly surged together!
Last night’s scene was really a bit unexpected. BTC jumped directly from 83,500 back to 84,900, and gold also rebounded sharply from 4,251 to 4,278. Both candlesticks jumped up together, leaving me stunned.
I quickly checked the news. It turned out that several Fed officials like Barr and Collins collectively turned hawkish again, shouting that there’s still a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike in October.
Logically, with rising rate hike expectations, risk assets should fall, so why did they rise instead?
Simply put, it’s the "bad news is already priced in" scenario playing out again. After the rate hike landed, BTC stubbornly held from 75,600 all the way up to 87,000, rising 13%. ETF funds flowed back nearly $1 billion in a single day, plus shorts were forced to cover in a squeeze, which propped up the market. Gold’s situation is even more absurd; the market is no longer trading on rate hikes but on "currency devaluation trades" — with the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repos, concerns over the dollar’s credit and debt have long outweighed the impact of short-term rates.
Seeing through this logic actually calms me down. This kind of market just slaps you back and forth; chasing highs when it rises easily traps you, and panic selling when it falls hurts the most.
What to watch next? Tonight about $15 billion worth of $BTC options expire, which is a big test. If the selling pressure can be absorbed, it means this rebound is backed by real money. Many people have been completely trapped by a fixed mindset: interest rate hikes = market doom, and a high interest rate means a bull market is impossible. But if you are willing to look back at the complete BTC historical cycles, you will know this theory is fundamentally untenable.
The trend is always the best answer the market can give. Looking back at every Bitcoin bull and bear cycle switch, when a quarterly candle's body fully engulfs the previous bearish candle, that is the first confirming candle of a cycle reversal. This signal means the market's bullish and bearish forces have fundamentally shifted, and the downward selling pressure of the bear market has been fully absorbed by buyers.
Do not treat macro interest rates as an absolute rule.
A very harsh historical fact: the vast majority of Bitcoin's main upward waves have occurred during periods of interest rate hikes and high interest rates.
If we rigidly believe the theory that "BTC cannot rise as long as interest rates are high," then since 2023, you would have been bearish all along, always waiting for that elusive bottom, and the only outcome would be missing out on this entire bull market.
Halving and institutional capital entering through spot ETFs are the fundamental driving forces of this crypto market cycle. Institutional long-term funds plan on a quarterly and yearly basis and will not change their big plans because of a single PMI data point or an interest rate hike expectation.
But the big cycle reversal is already written on the candles.
Stubbornly clinging to the logic that interest rate hikes are bearish and waiting for the so-called cycle bottom will most likely only lead to continuously missing out. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $ONE's current trend is actually quite clear.
A few days ago, the price experienced another rapid surge, but judging from the market rhythm, it looks more like high-level funds using the rebound to rotate and reduce positions, rather than a significant improvement in fundamentals.
I have repeatedly warned before that for tokens facing delisting and liquidity contraction risks, the biggest pressure afterward is often not whether the price will rise, but the continuous decline in trading depth and market absorption capacity. Once major trading channels decrease and funds withdraw, the price can easily experience consecutive drops.
Currently, $ONE has returned to a weak range. Even if there is a short-term rebound, caution is needed against a rise followed by a fall. Around 0.00059 can be considered an important psychological price level to watch. If it continues to break down, market expectations for further declines may significantly increase.
For those already holding long positions, the focus should still be on controlling position size and stop-loss; do not blindly add positions just because of a rebound. For short positions, attention should be paid to increased volatility and sudden rebounds; protecting profits is more important than blindly holding on.
Additionally, $BTC recently pulled back after a surge. Whether funds are starting to rotate from mainstream coins to some altcoins still requires further observation of trading volume, open interest, and whether BTC can stabilize key levels again. What matters now is not guessing the bottom but following the funds and market structure.
#ONE #BTC #BTCPullbackAfterSurge #MarketRotation #CryptocurrencyWhen BTC pulled back, altcoins amplified the decline even more.
BTC itself dropped about 2%, DOGE nearly 8%, and XRP, ZEC, HYPE all over 5%. Some on the list are still holding onto last week's altcoins outperforming, saying rotation has started, but looking back, the whole market is crashing together — this looks more like contract sentiment pulling along with BTC, not spot funds switching tracks. With US Treasury yields rising and oil prices above 100, macro factors are also suppressing risk appetite, and leveraged longs are being liquidated heavily during the pullback.
True rotation depends on whether BTC can hold sideways and altcoins can resist declines, whether stablecoins flow back, and whether altcoin market cap share can rise. Right now, most coins are still following BTC down, so treat this as a systemic pullback after high-level profit-taking, not a sector rotation. Wipe
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ Based on the current cooperation between both parties, $ONDO appears more like an ecosystem governance token with governance rights and limited supply, but currently without protocol cash flow claims. Therefore, the valuation of ondo based on the partnership with BlackRock should be divided into two steps: ❶ Cooperation → Ondo's asset scale and ecological status improve → Potential increase in the value of ONDO governance rights; ❷ Cooperation → Ondo's revenue growth → Direct dividends to ONDO holders. At least up to now, the second link has not been established, so after the short-term hype, attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback.Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, and this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety. Before going to bed last night, I saw $SOXS repeatedly oscillating at a high level, with obvious resistance above; every upward surge fell just short, the sell orders were strong but the trading volume was low. At that time, I suggested that short positions could wait for confirmation and enter around 38.81.🚀
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially from those who think they are the smartest.
The confirmation didn’t take long; the current price dropped all the way to 34.33, with a return of +231.89%. The short position was worth the wait, the timing was spot on. Time to enjoy a good meal, those in the car must have woken up laughing.
The position management was simple: first close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don’t give back the gains. The money earned is the realization of your understanding; the money lost is the flaw in your understanding.
For friends who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak, chasing shorts easily gets caught in a rebound. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, then take the shot. Opportunities remain, don’t rush.
$BTC $SNDK Just saw Duelbits admit it themselves: about 7 million USD in hot wallets were drained, and the site was shut down first. Founder Joe said user funds are safe and they're still investigating how the breach happened; Scam Sniffer points to suspected private key compromise, with cross-chain transfers on Ethereum, BNB Chain, Tron, and the Bitcoin hot wallet also lost 8.1 BTC. Most of the stolen funds have been converted to ETH and piled into a new address, about 2,234 ETH (roughly 6 million USD), and as of press time, no further transfers have been made. The amount is even larger than the previous alert round, and this time it's officially confirmed, with the entire site offline. Hot wallet breaches at casinos aren't new—Stake had an even bigger one. For now, let's see when they reopen and how they replenish the hot wallets; we'll talk numbers once they match up. No point rushing to conclusions, just keep this incident in mind. September is almost over
Summary:
1. No stop loss set caused a Zec short position to blow up 6000u
2. Want to sell when it rises a bit, but stubbornly hold when it falls
3. The scariest part is, although opening orders every day and watching the ups and downs exhausts the mind, the hands itch if no orders are opened
4. Running with capital for a month, working overtime every day, not even complaining about being tired, still proactive, family urges to sleep but won't
Now only a little over 100u left, after losing it all will definitely come back, what to do
Gambling nature is hard to control Writing
The market is debating dozens of narratives.
But price has already confirmed three: Privacy, RWA, and AI.
🔐 Privacy $ZEC ~$25B — institutional-accessible privacy $XMR ~$10.4B — the established privacy standard $DASH ~$0.8B — same sector, but still far smaller
🏦 RWA Ethereum RWA leader ~$2.1B — tokenized treasuries & stocks with real TVL $SYRUP ~$240M — private credit with real loans and yield $CFG < $100M — small cap exposure to $1B+ tokenized assets
#DailyOrbit 🐋 Yesterday, I came across a massive whale address and honestly thought I must have read the data wrong. $UNI dropped from 9.916 to 8.78, and the 15-minute chart looked completely broken. The EMAs were stacked overhead, momentum looked weak, and the market appeared ready for another leg down. The group chat was full of panic—people were cutting losses, complaining, and calling for more downside. If I had posted a long position at that exact moment, I probably would have been destroyed in the c$SUI
SUI managed to reclaim the lost $1 integer level overnight: 1.0131, +5.37% in 24 hours, with a low of 0.9352
A couple of days ago when it broke $1, I said losing the integer level hurts morale the most; now that it’s recovered, it means panic selling has mostly subsided
Position volume slightly increased by 2.7%, long-short ratio is 2.47, with 71% going long — somewhat crowded, but funds are slowly returning, the direction is correct
My view: 0.9352 is the bottom, if it stands back above 1.02 it can test 1.05. A pullback to 0.98 is a good chance to buy small
Coins that reclaim integer levels often have a recovery rally, I’m bullish on SUI. Go long on it!
$SUI This $ETH long position was held for a week, and in the end, I chose to take profit and exit at a relatively suitable level, then immediately reversed to set up a short position.
The original plan was to wait for $BTC to return near 85000 to end the long position first, then look for shorting opportunities. Unexpectedly, after waiting the whole day, the intraday high only reached about 84550, never providing an ideal entry point.
So this time, I adjusted the short entry to around 84000, but as soon as I entered, there was obvious resistance, and the market did not continue to break upwards.
Fortunately, this trade had a stop loss set in advance. Since the judgment was that it wouldn’t break out, the loss was executed as planned. There’s no need to trade emotionally because of a single stop loss. The most important thing in short-term trading is risk control; after the stop loss, observe the structure again.
Next, focus on the 83500 area.
If $BTC can effectively break below 83500, I will consider gradually moving the stop loss to breakeven, then observe whether the market can weaken further.
As for taking profit, I currently tend to interpret this decline as a wave two correction, so I’m not in a hurry to give a specific target yet.
For now, watch if 84000 can truly be lost.
If it breaks down with volume support, then consider the next step; if it recovers back above, continue to wait patiently.
The market offers opportunities every day; there’s no need to rush to make up for a missed trade or a stop loss. $BTC $ETHThere is a rather strange phenomenon in the crypto circle.
When an asset can generate yield, everyone starts studying why it is valuable; when an asset can only be speculated on for price differences, everyone starts studying why it is a bubble. The same ETH, with staking ETFs distributing 2.8%–3.5% native yield directly into regulated products, has already reached a 40% share in institutional portfolios, and BlackRock's ETHA has scaled up to $6.5 billion — yet as soon as the price pulls back for two days, some say it will be surpassed by SOL, accuse L2 of sucking value, or claim it lacks narrative.
Price is only a thermometer of sentiment, not a verdict on value.
ETH incorporating staking yield into compliant products means it transforms from a "pure speculative asset" into "beta plus carry," a structural advantage that BTC does not have. Research is still necessary, skepticism remains, and when it comes to your own money, you have to think it through yourself.
$ETH #BitMine成全球最大ETH质押方 #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ BTC fell back to around 83,000, ETH fluctuated around 2650, and SOL fell back down to around 112. The 15-minute level pattern is similar: sharp drop→ weak rebound→ continued downward pressure, and short-term bulls clearly lack strong support. As options expire in the quarter, market volatility tends to amplify. Currently, public data shows that about $16.6 billion in BTC and ETH options will expire on September 25, and other products like SOL will also increase short-term market volatility. At this stage, the biggest risk is chasing gains and selling lows, with the probability of sweeping losses up and down noticeably increasing. Additionally, StarkWare's recently announced quantum-secure BTC solution has made new progress, with the estimated GPU computing cost for related transactions dropping from about $320 to around $66–$67. However, this is mostly a long-term technical development. Current data mainly comes from optimized benchmark tests and does not necessarily mean the market will strengthen directly today. Therefore, I am not rushing to rush the rebound for now; the plan is to wait for confirmation. BTC: Look for support near 83,000 first; if it breaks, focus on the next range between 82,400 and 82,600. Once volume shrinks and the price stabilizes, then consider light positions in the spot. If the rebound near 84,000 above is weak, I prefer to observe rather than chase. ETH: 2630 is a key short-term area; after testing 2620–2640, focus on whether there is support. If you can't hold on, keep waiting; don't rush to buy the dip. SOL: 112 is currently an observation level; if it continues to fall,In early September, the SEC approved Nasdaq Texas rule amendments (Order 34-106268), defining "digital commodities" for the first time in exchange listing standards, specifically naming BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP as the core assets currently qualified. It also allows actively managed crypto ETFs to allocate up to 15% of net asset value to tokens that have not yet met the criteria. The ETP approval window was also compressed from 240 days to 75 days.
However, the market reactions of the four coins are completely different, with capital being repriced.
BTC: Named but already repeatedly bought by institutions through ETFs, the narrative is the most stable, but short-term it is stuck between US Treasury yields and options expiration.
ETH: Staking ETFs account for 40% of institutional positions, with yields of 2.8%–3.5% turning it from "pure beta" into "beta plus carry," but non-staking products are still bleeding, causing internal diversion.
SOL: A high beta, elastic coin; the news is positive but valuation is already high, making it most sensitive during pullbacks.
XRP: Officially named but the weakest in the earlier rally; nominal open interest declined faster than price drops, indicating real positions are closing.
All four coins are "certified" by the same rule, but their rises require individual catalysts: BTC needs ETF lifelines, ETH needs internal diversion to turn positive, SOL needs ecosystem data, and XRP needs legal certainty to materialize. Stay patient until the direction becomes clear.
$XRP #SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注 Don't be fooled by the candlestick charts: $BTC determines liquidity flow, $ETH tests demand
The market never knocks; it climbs in through the window. But before every unexpected volatility, the market always leaves subtle clues.
BTC is the liquidity barometer. It moves first, and funds follow. Every surge in BTC volume signals where the money is flowing. However, strong liquidity does not equal genuine demand — price pumps can be driven by leverage, news, or a sudden bullish candle.
ETH is the true litmus test of demand. When ETH holds key support levels and volume expands simultaneously, it indicates real buying interest absorbing the market, not just short-term traders speculating. The real confirmation is not a single explosive rally but sustained relative strength outperforming BTC.
So don’t just focus on BTC’s price moves. Watch the ETH/BTC exchange rate — if it consolidates at a low level and then rises with volume, while ETH’s on-chain activity also picks up, that’s the first real clue. A sudden candlestick spike might be a trap; sustained relative strength is the real signal.
Which chart are you watching? I’m focused on ETH/BTC along with volume bars. BTC tells you if the money has arrived; ETH tells you if the money is staying.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ $ETH 😜 This rebound came a bit suddenly. I just entered the market not long ago, and the second position has already started to show floating profits. The account is gradually moving up, and my mood is improving accordingly.
The trend over the past 15 minutes has indeed been very strong. ETH quickly rose from a low point, with buying pressure pushing decisively. Especially after a clear pullback in the afternoon followed by a rally, I was actually a bit uneasy when I first entered, since this kind of movement could also be just a short-term technical rebound, and a slight selling pressure might push it down again.
Currently, the price is gradually approaching around 2700, with the first focus above at 2703. What really puzzles me now is: is this rebound a short-term correction, or is it preparing to continue breaking through?
If ETH can hold above 2703 with volume and further break the previous high, then the bullish structure might be further confirmed, and we can continue to watch the space above; but if it clearly meets resistance at 2703, volume doesn't keep up, or it falls back again, then we need to consider taking some profits off the table, at least not letting the floating gains already in hand slip away.
This kind of rapid rally is most prone to a spike and fall or false breakout, so I will focus on the strength of the breakthrough near 2703, the volume, and the support after a pullback. Breaking through and holding versus spiking and being pushed back are two completely different signals.
As for whether ETH can directly break the previous high this time, I pay more attention to the actual price action rather than guessing the answer in advance. 😎 $ZEC is finally cooling off after its huge run. 📉
It dropped from around $1,650 to $1,492 today, showing clear selling pressure after a 70%+ rally since September 3.
The bigger story: major short seller Garrett Jin closed his ZEC short at a $35.44M loss while still holding about 202K ZEC. With the rally fading, more selling pressure could follow.
#BTCPullbackAltRotation
#USTreasuryYieldsRise
#NasdaqHitsRecordHigh $ZEC SHORTS ARE COOLING OFF 👀 A few sessions ago, ZEC short positioning was near 70%, but it has now slipped toward 61–62% as bearish positions continue getting closed. ZEC previously pushed close to $1,680 before pulling back, leaving plenty of aggressive shorts trapped on the wrong side. Meanwhile, $DASH is still lacking the same momentum. Heavy long positioning can make it harder for price to move higher without fresh demand. 📌 ZEC Support: $1,480–$1,520 📌 ZEC Resistance: $1,620–$1,680 📌 The market has been as stagnant as dead water these past two days, with volatility narrowing continuously. It turns out the entire market is waiting for two things: on one side, US Treasury yields have surged to the highest since 2007, and the US Dollar Index hit a new high for July; on the other side, $17 billion worth of BTC and ETH options on Deribit are set to expire this Friday.
Events of this macro and derivatives magnitude directly determine the direction of global capital next. If consensus is reached, risk appetite will soar, and crypto will take off alongside risk assets; if not, yields will keep pressing down, and high-volatility assets will first get hammered into a deep pit.
I used to dread these news-waiting markets—stuck with no clear direction, always tempted to open positions trying to bet on a direction, only to get caught in whipsaws and liquidations on both sides. Now I've learned my lesson: during these battles of the titans, small retail investors don't even qualify to be cannon fodder.
Hold your spot positions well, avoid heavy exposure, never use leverage, absolutely do not bet on a single direction, and keep enough ammo ready for when the shoe drops. Anyway, before the direction becomes clear, lying low is safer than acting recklessly. Sit back, have some tea, and watch the show; there's no rush right now.
$BTC #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ Keep rising
I just don't believe you can rise back up
Try rising a bit more
43 ETH short positions are already floating a loss of 13350U
The dog whale today will either send me away
Or just honestly smash it back down for me
$ETH daily MA5 is pressing above 2700
MA10 is at 2620
MA20 is at 2554
MACD hasn't completely turned bearish yet
This indicates the bullish structure hasn't been broken
If 2700 to 2703 can't hold the pressure
It’s very likely to test 2775 to 2825 again above
Coincidentally, my liquidation line is at 2808
This position really leaves me no way out
For the bears to truly take over the market
At least break below 2620 first
Then losing 2566 is needed to have a chance to accelerate the pullback
Otherwise, it can only be considered a high-level consolidation now
$ZEC intraday drop exceeds 4%
1464 is short-term support
1567 is resistance above
Contract open interest and volume are both at high levels
Indicating bulls and bears are still fiercely exchanging hands
Breaking below 1460 can continue to look for a pullback
But chasing shorts at this position is easy to get caught by a rebound
$SNDK intraday drop is close to 3%
1748 to 1737 is the first support zone
1800 above has become resistance again
As long as it can't close back above 1800
The short term rebound is still considered weak
Only truly breaking below 1737 has a chance to continue smashing down
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ This is the question many people are most concerned about right now:
When will the market stabilize again?
According to my speculation:
• Tomorrow 9/25 is the options expiration → highest volatility in these 1–2 days
• After that, the market will be clearer, and capital will return to the good coins
• BTC holds above $83,000 in the next 2–3 days → recovery to $84,500–$85,000
• If it drops below $82,500 → the accumulation period will be longer
So, do you have any other answers to this question? Please respond
$BTC #BTCPullbackAltRotation 📊 Long and short crowding ranking: What signals is the funding rate releasing?
The market's short-term sentiment shows clear divergence, with the perpetual contract funding rates of some altcoins leaning towards long crowding. The higher the funding rate, the more long position holders need to pay shorts, indicating that market leverage sentiment is heating up.
🔹 $ONE
Current funding rate is about +0.1305%, ranking at the 96th percentile historically over the past 100 settlements, which is a significantly high level. Meanwhile, the price has risen about 3.83%.
→ Long sentiment is strong, but the high funding rate also means the cost of holding long positions is rapidly increasing. If the price cannot continue to rise with volume, beware of short-term long profit-taking or leverage squeeze.
🔹 $ETC
Current funding rate is about +0.0100%, reaching the 100th percentile historically over the past 100 settlements, indicating that the current long funding rate is at a recent extreme high. The price has simultaneously risen about 4.22%.
→ During ETC's rise, contract longs have clearly increased. Going forward, pay close attention to whether spot trading volume expands in sync. If the price rises but open interest and funding rate continue to heat up rapidly, short-term volatility may further increase.
🔹 $LTC
Current funding rate is about +0.0076%, at the 36th percentile over the past 100 settlements, significantly lower crowding compared to ONE and ETC. The current price has risen about 2.70%. US Stock Market Opening Analysis | Today it's not that the crypto market collapsed on its own, but that risk appetite is cooling down.
BTC's weekly chart isn't broken yet, but short-term pricing power has shifted back to interest rates and oil prices.
US stocks weakened, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to around 5.1%, and the 30-year yield once exceeded 5.4%,
combined with Brent crude returning to around $105, market expectations for another rate hike in October have clearly heated up.
So BTC dropped from 87,000 to around 83,000; I tend to see this as deleveraging at a high level rather than a trend reversal.
The most critical now is:
$BTC holding 83,000 means high-level consolidation; if it breaks below 83,000, the next target is 82,000.
$ETH looks at 2640–2650 first; before BTC stops falling, altcoins shouldn't rush to bottom out comprehensively.
But the market isn't completely without highlights.
LTC, ONDO, RAY, MORPHO still have capital support, indicating the hotspots haven't disappeared, just shifted from broad diffusion to localized clusters.
$ZEC: high volume remains, but after surging, it clearly retraced, showing the heat is still there, but new buying power isn't that strong.
My judgment:
If BTC holds 82,000, the weekly rebound logic remains; only by reclaiming 85,000 will there be a chance to challenge 87,000 again.
Don't rush to find the next explosive coin now.
Wait for BTC to stop falling first, then see if capital will spread again from BTC to altcoins #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $CORE Honestly, what disappoints me the most now is not just the price, but the market's confidence in the project's execution ability.
CORE has been oscillating at low levels for a long time, with the price repeatedly experiencing brief rallies, but there have been few substantial developments that truly change the fundamentals. The project team keeps emphasizing BTCFi, ecosystem building, and future products, but what investors really care about is when these stories will translate into real users, real revenue, and sustained token demand.
What is even more concerning is that in early September, CORE experienced an anomaly in validator rewards, where some validators received rewards exceeding the protocol's expectations. Subsequently, the project team initiated an emergency hard fork, and several exchanges temporarily suspended CORE deposits and withdrawals. The official statement said the issue has been controlled and addressed through an upgrade, but the incident caused the market to re-examine CORE's supply mechanism and network governance risks.
Currently, another point of controversy in the market is the gap between "story" and "implementation."
For example, BTCFi-related products like SatPay are still affected by development, compliance, and commercialization progress. What the market really wants to see is not daily repeated narratives, but product launches, user growth, revenue generation, and ultimately the formation of actual demand for CORE.
Therefore, many long-term investors are now very fatigued:
Those who bought at high prices have been waiting for a long time;
Those chasing the price at lows often face rapid pullbacks;
Short-term funds pay more attention to whether there is sustained trading volume and capital support after each rally. #日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高 Japan's bond market issues a "once in thirty years" warning: $BTC and $ETH cheap liquidity is being withdrawn
On September 24, the first trading day after Japan's "Silver Week" holiday, the 10-year government bond yield surged to 3.075%, the highest level since August 1996, rising 10 basis points from the previous trading day. The yield curve rose across all maturities, with the 5-year yield reaching 2.37%. On the surface, this looks like a concentrated catch-up drop after the holiday, but the underlying transmission chain points to Bitcoin.
Core mechanism: The relationship between yen carry trades and BTC's "blood bag"
The impact of the surge in Japanese government bond yields on Bitcoin is not domestic but lies in a cross-border financing network worth 360 trillion yen.
For decades, "yen carry trades"—borrowing yen at extremely low cost to invest in high-yield overseas assets—have been a major engine of global liquidity and an important source of funding supporting risk assets like Bitcoin. As of March 2026, cross-border yen borrowing had climbed to about $2.34 trillion, the largest scale of carry trade accumulation in nearly 30 years.
When Japan's 10-year yield breaks 3%, domestic assets become sharply more attractive to local institutional investors. The motivation for capital repatriation strengthens, and willingness to allocate overseas weakens. The world's largest creditor nation begins withdrawing capital, forcing Japanese investors to shrink their overseas risk exposure, thereby pulling out the cheap liquidity that Bitcoin depends on.
Historical precedent: The lesson from August 2024
In August 2024, the Bank of Japan raised rates by only 0.25%, and the yen appreciated about 6%, triggering a global financial shock. At that time, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell as much as 20% amid a wave of carry trade liquidations, as margin calls forced traders to close various asset positions.
The current rise in financing costs far exceeds that period. On September 18, the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. Data from the Bank for International Settlements estimates offshore yen debt at $500 billion, about twice the size of August 2024. This means that if carry trade liquidations accelerate, deleveraging pressure will be more severe than two years ago.
BTC is already under pressure
BTC did not wait for full yen carry trade liquidation to start reacting. On September 24, BTC continued its overnight decline, touching $83,500 at one point, breaking through the key on-chain support zone between $84,000 and $85,000, triggering about $280 million in long liquidations.
The negative correlation between Bitcoin and Japan's 10-year government bond yield is not a short-term phenomenon. Delphi Digital's analysis points out that as Japanese yields rise, Bitcoin has struggled relatively over longer periods. Japan holds about 390 trillion yen in government bonds; every 1 percentage point increase in yield could push tens of trillions of yen in assets into negative returns, forcing Japanese financial institutions to adjust their balance sheets, with Bitcoin being one of the main assets reduced in this "rebalancing".
Trading insights
Focus on the yen, not just the dollar. The direct consequence of the surge in Japanese bond yields is pressure for yen appreciation. Historical data shows rapid yen appreciation triggers carry trade liquidations. If USD/JPY breaks key support levels, BTC could face liquidity shocks more severe than currently.
$84,000 is the key defensive line. Glassnode data shows a large concentration of long-term holders between $84,000 and $85,000, the current core support area. If this zone is continuously lost, the $77,000 "real market average" will become the next reference point.
When direction is unclear, reducing position size is more important than guessing direction. The Japanese bond market has not yet stabilized, and the Fed's rate hike path remains uncertain. During this window of overlapping tightening forces, defense is more valuable than offense. #创作者激励 I was just about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked my balance and decided against it. The market is always right. Yesterday afternoon, $SOXL was still consolidating at the bottom, and many people said it was hopeless, but I was watching SOXL's buy orders closely.
The bottom consolidation didn't break down, funds quietly entered the market. I only left one note at the time: if the pullback doesn't break, try going long; if it breaks, admit the mistake. Have a strategy before the market opens, discipline during trading, and reflection afterward.
In the end, it didn't give much time to hesitate, rising straight from 101.56 to 138.74, with unrealized gains reaching +365.3%. Those on board must have woken up smiling.
Take profits on 70% first, don't be greedy for the last bit. Protect the remaining 30% at cost, let profits run if it continues to rise, and don't give back profits on a pullback. Don't let profits inflate, don't despair over drawdowns.
The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they're the smartest. If you didn't get in, don't worry; missing this opportunity isn't a crime.
Now is not the time to rush; wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. There will be more opportunities later, and I will notify you immediately.
$SNDK $BTC September 24 Deep Review｜BTC · ETH · PONS
$BTC surged then pulled back, with the macro storm as the main theme.
BTC: During the Asian session, it once dipped to $82,882, falling over 4,400 points from the daily high of $87,363, closing around $84,340 in the evening. Long positions liquidated $444 million in 24 hours, the highest since September 15. The core drivers of this decline: the US composite PMI for September rose to 58.4, a five-year high; the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.13%, the highest since 2007; the probability of a Fed rate hike in October rose from 53% to 70%. However, institutions are still accumulating: MSBT ETF had a single inflow of 1,100 BTC (about $93.89 million), and spot BTC ETFs have had net inflows for five consecutive days. $84,000 is a key watershed; breaking below it brings $77,000 back into view.
$ETH: Around $2,685, down 2.5%. An institution sold 42,000 ETH at an average price of $2,664 (about $112 million), taking profits of $21.12 million and exiting. Support at $2,628, resistance at $2,703.
$PONS: The giant whale Loracle increased its 3x leveraged short position for two consecutive days, holding 984,765 tokens, turning from loss to a floating profit of about $57,000.
Conclusion: Macro pressure is the core contradiction; whether $84,000 holds will determine the short-term direction.
This does not constitute investment advice. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ The macro environment isn't easing, so no one can leave; ZEC eating alone got hit, USELESS flips faster than flipping a book
$BTC was pulled back from 87,000 to 83,000. Simply put, US Treasury yields surged to the highest since 2007, and about $15.9 billion in options are expiring this Friday, so both bulls and bears are reluctant to act rashly. The $BTC 84,000 level is quite critical; if it can reclaim this, it's a breather on the way up. If not, we have to look down to the cost line near 77,000.
$ETH has been softer than BTC these days, barely hovering around 2,670. The 2,700 level is being tested back and forth but can't hold. In the short term, watch if the 2,628 low can hold; if it does, there's still some breath, if not, it will retrace along with BTC. The current market is: neither strong nor weak, stuck in the middle, making moves is pointless.
$USELESS closed flat at 0.292. Don't be fooled by its lack of drop; the big bullish candle before was a surge from about 0.18 in one go. Looking at its market cap and volume ratio, you can tell how loose the chips are. Quick in-and-out short-term trades are fine, but never treat it as something with fundamentals; holding it means becoming the bag holder for early speculators.
$ZEC was really promising a few days ago, with privacy narratives plus institutional money entering, it surged to $1,650, a ten-year high. Today it dropped about two points back to around 1,513, with bulls and bears tugging at the 1,500 level. The short-term liquidation zone is densely packed between 1,420 and 1,380.Midnight Market Breakdown: BTC is consolidating at 84,300 — Is it brewing the next wave or a sign of an impending reversal?
Current prices: BTC 84,300, ETH 2,682. The market has entered an extreme low-volume consolidation phase. At this moment, I focus not on sentiment but on data:
1. Technical support confirmed: BTC quickly rebounded after testing near 83,000 (EMA144). The 1-hour J value is around 70, indicating short-term upward momentum remains, but the 4-hour J value is only 25, showing that the larger timeframe is still digesting previous overbought conditions.
2. Healthy capital flow: Funding rates are extremely mild, with no signs of high-leverage chasing. This means the current price is supported by spot buying, and the pullback is a healthy turnover.
3. My live trading response: I wasn’t scared off by the early morning surge, nor did I cut losses during the pullback. The grid strategy continues running, and BTC’s unrealized paired loss has narrowed from -28U to -14U.
My conclusion: The 83,000-84,000 range is the lifeline for bulls. As long as it doesn’t break below, the sideways movement is a money printer for the grid; once a volume-driven break below occurs, I will not hesitate to manually close positions and take losses.
How are you spending tonight? Chasing the rally and selling off, or staying still like a mountain, watching your own indicators? $BTC $ETH Pure dumb luck, got the cheapest chips at the bottom, feeling great, hahahahahaha.
Now it's premium reversion, but there's still no strong supply crisis to push it to 100, plus the US has stopped Europe's oil, causing WTI and Brent premiums to exceed $6.
Next is still the 97.5 half-position take-profit strategy, leaving the remaining half-position for the trend, continuously raising the stop-loss level to see how far this trend momentum can push.
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ Iranian President's UN Speech: No Surrender, but Strait of Hormuz Is Open for Talks
On September 23, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi delivered a speech during the general debate at the United Nations General Assembly, clearly stating that Iran "will never bow down nor surrender," while also sending a key signal—believing that the conflict can be resolved through diplomatic means.
What was said?
On the nuclear stance, he drew a line: Iran needs nuclear energy but not nuclear weapons, and refuses to accept restrictions on its civilian nuclear program.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, he set a condition: It is unacceptable for certain countries to freely use the strait for their own benefit while simultaneously using it to attack Iran. The U.S. must stop the maritime blockade for the strait to possibly reopen.
The day before, senior Iranian officials had conveyed conditions to the U.S. via Qatar, including lifting the maritime blockade and releasing frozen assets, and promised that if the U.S. eased military pressure, Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days.
Interestingly, shortly after Raisi began speaking, the only U.S. representative in the hall stood up and left.
What is the market trading on?
In the past few trading days, $CL oil prices have steadily declined from highs, with WTI briefly falling below the $90 mark. The underlying pricing logic has shifted: from previous "supply disruption panic" to "supply restoration + negotiation expectations."
However, after the president's speech on September 23, Brent crude oil surged nearly 4%, returning above $103. This sharp "fall then rise" volatility precisely shows how sensitive the market is to any news—because there is no substantive progress yet at the negotiation table.
JPMorgan had previously warned that the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to fully reopen, and oil prices still need to maintain a high-risk premium. Saxo Bank also believes that before a substantial increase in refined oil supply through Hormuz, the downside for oil prices is limited.
What does this mean for trading?
The U.S. and Iran are currently in a typical "fighting while negotiating" state. The president says "no surrender," but has made the strait's navigation the first phase bargaining chip, no longer a deadlock where "if the whole package can't be agreed, everything freezes."
But Trump says talks are "very good" while not ruling out further military action. Without a ceasefire framework or verifiable agreement, the right of passage through Hormuz remains uncertain.
When direction is unclear, news dominates and volatility amplifies. Betting unilaterally on negotiation success or failure can be overturned by the next headline. Wait for clearer signals—either a ceasefire framework is established or conflict reignites—before deciding position direction. On the 23rd move, White gently pushed a pawn forward one square—the first physical-backed ZEC certificate in Europe, simultaneously played on the tables in Paris and Amsterdam. Observers see news; I see a permanent structural change in the pawn formation.
True grandmasters never ask "Is this move good?" They only ask "After this move, what is the opponent forced to do?" Over the past years, ZEC on the board has always been like a knight trapped in a corner: a beautiful technical route, but never finding a foothold to leverage. Now someone has built a compliant floating bridge for it—traditional brokerage accounts can indirectly hold it without needing to manage private keys themselves. This means institutional funds, previously sitting outside the board, are allowed for the first time to reach into the game. This is not a sacrifice; it is an open file for the rook on the queenside.
The price reaction is equally worth pondering: first surging to 1,680, then retreating to around 1,500. This pattern has a name in my database—probing check. The goal is not checkmate but to see the opponent’s response and the bottom line of the entire position. Real position management is never about chasing the long shadow but judging whether the opponent’s constrained bishop can still move. Most losses in the middlegame are not from choosing the wrong direction but from insufficient calculation followed by heavy bets.
There are two key time controls on the schedule: the testnet in early October and the mainnet in early November. This is equivalent to the last 40 moves before the second time control; the outcome of the middlegame is often quietly decided in this segment. If the technology delivers on time, the board will shift from "having a story" to "having a passed pawn"; if delayed, the market will first cash out sentiment, then patience. Institutional product demand is never emotional fuel; it is a passed pawn—slow-moving but irreversible with every step.
More interesting is the flank game: the US stock certificate codenamed XGOOGL is interacting with the crypto board. As mainstream equity assets begin to move on-chain, two previously separate games now share an open file. Bulls and bears no longer only watch their own half; cross-market piece exchanges will become more frequent, more covert, and easier to misjudge one’s material advantage.
The most common mistake I’ve seen in endgames is mistaking a temporary material lead for a promotion. Any conclusion now is premature; the board is still in the middlegame, and the greatest taboo in the middlegame is thinking for your opponent. #21shareszcashetpFederal Reserve officials are speaking intensively, with repeated expectations of rate hikes, and risk appetite contraction directly suppresses SKHYNIX. I judge the short-term bias to be bearish, but the four-hour level has not yet broken, with obvious divergence.
The contradiction lies in the cycle mismatch: the 1-hour is declining and 6.75% below the high, while the 4-hour is rising and 7.13% above the low. Current price is 1319.1, down 2.3% in 24h, with a high of 1353.2 and a low of 1309.3, trading volume only 41,000, volume is weak. Order book buy/sell ratio is 0.65, selling pressure dominates; funding rate is 0.0000%, open interest is 35,000, sentiment is cautious.
Strategy: lightly short on a rebound to 1331.5, stop loss at 1342.8, target 1302.4; if it pulls back to 1305.6 and stabilizes, consider a short-term long, stop loss at 1294.2, target 1326.7. Position size no more than 20%, exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$SKHYNIX#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ $SKHYNIX #纳斯达克指数连续两日创历史新高 Risk appetite is warming up, but UNI has not followed the rally; instead, it is consolidating around the 9.2 level. I tend to see this more as an accumulation before a reversal rather than a continuation of the decline.
The 24-hour volatility reached 7.9%, with the current price at 9.217, consolidating near the upper boundary after rebounding from the 8.767 low; the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are both trending upward, but the price is still 13.9% below the 4-hour high, indicating a moderate rebound strength. The order book shows 7,237 buy orders against 11,000 sell orders in the top 10 levels, with a ratio of 0.63 indicating heavier selling pressure; the funding rate of -0.0046% suggests that bearish sentiment is not extreme, and the open interest of 6.281 million coin-margined contracts remains high, with both bulls and bears waiting for direction.
If the price pulls back and stabilizes near 9.045, a light long position can be tried with a stop loss at 8.913 and a target of 9.487; if it breaks through 9.361 with volume, follow the trend to go long with a stop loss at 9.198 and a target of 9.545. Keep the total position within 20%, and proactively reduce by half when approaching but not breaking the previous high.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$UNI#纳斯达克指数连续两日创历史新高
#纳斯达克指数连续两日创历史新高 $UNI ⚠️ The US tech sector is clearly cooling down, crypto circle don’t pretend you don’t see it!
On September 24, the US tech sector generally came under pressure, Oracle plunged at one point, and storage and optical communication sectors weakened simultaneously; related stocks like Western Digital, SanDisk, and Marvell also declined. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields rose, reigniting market concerns about the interest rate environment. (Yahoo Finance)
What does this mean for the crypto circle?
AI → computing power → chips → storage → data infrastructure is essentially a capital chain. When US tech valuations fluctuate, high Beta assets are often affected by changes in risk appetite, and short-term volatility of BTC, ETH, and altcoins may further amplify.
But there is a direction worth watching here: pressure on traditional AI infrastructure does not mean "data demand" disappears.
What’s truly worth observing is whether capital will gradually shift from overvalued AI hardware to seek the next phase of data infrastructure narratives.
So next, I will focus on:
BTC and ETH for market trends; OP, ARB, SUI to observe public chain capital; DOGE to watch Meme sentiment; FIL to continue monitoring AI data, decentralized storage, and on-chain cloud.
The US stock market is trading AI infrastructure, and the crypto circle is also looking for its own "AI infrastructure assets."
In this round of the market, the real opportunity may lie in sector rotation rather than blindly chasing gains.I was staring at the geological survey report of this plot, the pencil in my hand paused on the load-bearing wall marking—Apple and Google are simultaneously pouring concrete on the third basement level, while the people above ground are still discussing the color of the exterior wall tiles.
In the job requirements for Apple Pay positions, stablecoins and tokenized deposits are listed as priorities; Google Cloud is hiring Web3 architects explicitly serving financial institutions, trading venues, and custodians. Note this wording—not a showroom for retail clients, but laying pipelines for the entire building. The scale of these two companies means they never need to hire two years in advance for a front-end product. They are hiring structural engineers; they are driving piles.
When I work on super high-rise projects, there is a strict rule: the above-ground part determines how many awards you can get, the underground part determines how long you can stand. Pile foundation depth, rock layer bearing capacity, groundwater treatment plans—these never appear in renderings, but they decide whether the building lasts seventy years or seven. Nowadays, too many projects on the market have renderings more beautiful than anyone else’s, but when you check the geological survey report, not even a diaphragm wall has been built. The white paper is the design drawing, and design drawings are worthless; what’s valuable is the person who knows how to pour it.
Apple and Google’s recruitment moves are geological surveys. They haven’t drawn the facade yet; they are measuring groundwater levels.
What really concerns me are the linkage signals. The hardware computing power targets are being repriced, while the stablecoin infrastructure is quietly being reserved in the pipelines by the two tech giants—this means the future payment clearing layer may not be built on the existing native cryptocurrency foundation but directly integrated into the operating system-level load-bearing structure. This is like renovating a city’s main pipeline network; you’re not just building a building, you’re redesigning the entire municipal plan. Native projects that are only beautiful facade designs without their own structural patents will end up as subcontractors.
The job title Web3 architect itself is very telling. Traditional finance interface specifications, custodian risk control requirements, clearing timeliness of trading venues—these are load specifications. Hiring an architect who understands load specifications means building a structure that can withstand institutional capital scale, not a sales office for retail investors. When the two largest operating system entry points start doing this simultaneously, the industry’s ceiling height will be redefined.
I don’t look at who shouts the loudest slogans. I look at who is driving piles, whose piles reach the rock layer, whose concrete grade is sufficient.
If the water-cement ratio is wrong, no matter how tall the building is, it’s a dangerous building. #applegooglestablecoinIf I had bought Bitcoin ten years ago, I wouldn't be working here now.
Seeing this comment, Xiao Ma stared at his ZEC holdings in hand, glanced at the bowl of instant noodles, and suddenly fell silent.
Many people always say they missed BTC, missed ETH, missed BNB, and now it's ZEC's turn.
It seems like if you could just go back in time and seize that one opportunity, life would be completely different.
But the truth is, even if we were really sent back ten years, the vast majority of people still wouldn't hold onto the big coin.
It's not that they don't see the opportunity, but they can't withstand the volatility.
Just like this ZEC long position I have now, 20x full margin, with a floating profit of just over 20 USD, but a random deep dip during the session can easily break your mindset.
When the opportunity is right in front of you, very few can endure such huge drawdowns, long grinding, and repeated shakeouts.
Understanding it is one thing, holding on is another.
We are not lacking opportunities; what we lack is the cognition to match the opportunity and the composure to withstand the fluctuations.
Will Xiao Ma catch this wave with ZEC this time? Honestly, I’m not sure. To be frank, it could waterfall kill at any time, or it could be another big move that countless people regret missing.
The market never lacks the next potential big target; the hard part is controlling leverage and knowing when to stop.
Don’t keep chasing the "missed stories" and wasting energy; just seize the part you understand and can endure.
The market gives gifts, but it can also take them back at any time. Stay respectful and take it slow.
⚠️This is only Xiao Ma’s personal trading insight and does not constitute any investment advice. High leverage contracts carry extremely high risk.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ Keep picking up money! 💰
BTC fell from 84,931 to 84,314, while ETH dropped from 2,703 to 2,677. The group went from shouting about a rebound to total silence.
I’m watching my ETH short from 2,696.65—mark price 2,679, +65% profit, +17.64U floating, 26.79U margin at 100x.
#BTCPullbackAltRotation #USIranRiskPremium #CostcoQ4EarningsWatch Federal Reserve officials are speaking intensively, how much longer will the rate hikes continue? Amid macro uncertainty, BSB has independently risen. My judgment is that short-term bullish and long-term bearish divergences are intensifying, so chasing highs requires caution.
The contradiction lies in: both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are trending upward and close to the 24-hour high of 0.11014, but the trading volume is only 990,000, indicating thin liquidity; the order book's top 10 buy-sell ratio is 4.19, with 2,232 buy orders versus 533 sell orders, showing bullish sentiment. The funding rate of 0.0294% indicates crowded longs, with open interest at 11.797 million coins, having risen 26.17% from the 4-hour low, so the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is decreasing.
Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback to 0.10785 with a stop loss at 0.10538 and a target of 0.11214; if it rallies to around 0.11145 and stalls, consider reversing to a short position with a stop loss at 0.11268 and a target of 0.10826. Keep position size under 20%, exit immediately if the funding rate turns negative or buy orders sharply decrease.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BSB#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ $BSB 表面在涨，底下却在悄悄换手，这波谁在偷偷加杠杆？ 你有没有发现，价格越热闹，合约那边越像在憋气？ BTC 现在回到 80K 附近，之前摸过 85K 又滑下来，看上去买盘还在，其实更像高位有人在慢慢兑现。九月现货 ETF 净流入还是正的，这点挺关键，说明中长线筹码没散，只是短线情绪开始变得挑剔。 真正让我在意的不是价格，是衍生品结构。价格新高附近，如果资金费率跟着飙、未平仓量堆得太快，那上涨就容易变成一场对空头的挤压游戏，爽是爽，但很脆。一旦费率转负、OI 掉得比价格快，说明杠杆在撤，行情就从进攻切回防守。 ETH 这边结构还算健康，站上 2.66K 之后，2.56K 到 2.60K 是必须守住的台阶。守得住，山寨才有呼吸空间；守不住，风险偏好会先缩一圈。SOL 在 110 附近晃，它一直是高 beta 的那一个，涨起来最猛，跌起来也最不留情，需要量和资金一起点头才算数。 偏多的路径是：ETF 持续净流入托底，费率温和，OI 稳步抬升，那 BTC 带 ETH、ETH 带山寨的节奏还能延续。 偏空的风险是：价格横着、杠杆却越堆越高，一旦触发连环减仓，回撤会比想象中快，尤其高 beta 品种#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？# High interest rates suppress risk appetite, $SNDK is hard to stand alone, I lean towards a drop after a rebound.
Down 4.0% in 24h to 1758, intraday high 1833.8 low 1743.6, turnover only 489,000, funding rate 0.0000% shows a stalemate between bulls and bears. Open interest 44,000, order book buy 209 sell 399, buy-sell ratio 0.52, sellers clearly dominant. 1-hour and 4-hour trends are up, but more than 7% below the high average, only 1.07% and 15.44% above the low, short-term under pressure.
Strategy: Short at rebound to 1794, stop loss 1826, target 1692; if sharp drop to 1728, light long position, stop loss 1698, target 1776. Total position no more than 20%, exit on break, do not hold losing positions.
——For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading.——
$SNDK#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ $SNDK September 25 Evening: Analysis of SanDisk, Nvidia, Rocket, and AI Sector Trends
Risk Warning: The following content is only a review and deduction of market logic and does not constitute any investment advice. Overseas trading of U.S. stocks involves multiple risks such as exchange rates, overseas regulations, and geopolitical conflicts. Technology growth stocks are highly volatile with high valuation correction risks. Please view rationally and do not trade directly based on this.
On the evening of September 25 Beijing time, after the U.S. stock market opened, overall risk appetite continued to weaken, extending the pressure pattern from the previous trading day. The core suppressing factor remains the sustained high yield on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. U.S. economic data showed strong resilience, the market lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts within the year, and the U.S. dollar strengthened simultaneously, putting collective pressure on high-valuation growth sectors. Storage and computing hardware sectors saw significant pullbacks; the commercial space rocket sector showed an independent oscillating trend; the AI sector experienced intensified internal differentiation, with computing hardware continuing to weaken while AI software and application targets were relatively resilient. The analysis below covers the macro environment, individual sector performance, bullish and bearish logic, and future market observations.
From the macro background of the market, tonight’s main theme is interest rate expectations suppressing high-valuation assets. Recent U.S. employment and consumption data exceeded market expectations, combined with several Fed officials’ hawkish statements, leading the market to believe inflation is falling slower than expected and delaying rate cuts is more likely. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains at a high level with fluctuations. High risk-free yields raise the discount rate for stock valuations, hitting long-duration, high-valuation tech sectors the hardest. Coupled with prior continuous gains in AI computing power and storage sectors accumulating substantial profits, funds chose to take profits in the evening. The Nasdaq opened lower, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined simultaneously, bringing overall selling pressure to the chip industry chain. The overall fund style shifted slightly from aggressive growth to defensive sectors, with funds flowing out of highly elastic tech stocks toward bonds and traditional value blue chips for risk aversion.
SanDisk, as a storage chip sector representative, maintained a fluctuating downward trend in the evening session. The storage cycle is deeply linked to AI server demand; AI data center expansion brings large enterprise-level SSD and flash memory demand, which is the core logic for the storage sector’s medium- to long-term rise. However, short-term semiconductor sector-wide selling pressure dragged it down, with a quick dip at the open and multiple intraday rebounds lacking fund support. On the fund side, short-term traders showed strong willingness to realize profits, with many taking gains from previous rises. However, the industry fundamentals have not seen substantial negative changes: global storage inventory continues to decline, storage product prices remain on the rise, and cloud providers’ data center storage purchase orders remain stable. The medium- to long-term industry logic remains intact. In the short term, SanDisk passively follows the market adjustment rather than suffering from its own fundamental negatives. Technically, it is necessary to observe whether key support levels below can hold. If U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the storage sector will likely continue oscillating downward; if rates fall, the sector may see a recovery rally. The main risks are storage price increases falling short of expectations and cloud providers cutting capital expenditures, which would directly compress storage companies’ profit expectations.
Nvidia, as the global AI computing leader and the emotional anchor of the entire AI sector, experienced a fluctuating pullback in the evening. After opening lower, it continued to weaken and repeatedly tested support intraday. Although Nvidia’s medium- to long-term fundamentals are solid, with full AI chip orders for data centers and major cloud providers continuously increasing computing power purchases, and strong earnings guidance, it faces short-term profit-taking pressure. The stock price rose sharply earlier, pushing valuations to high levels, and the market has fully priced in earnings expectations. Without unexpected positive news, funds tend to reduce holdings at highs. Additionally, ongoing executive share sales have disturbed market sentiment, intensifying short-term fund caution. The current market focus of the bulls and bears is on cloud providers’ capital expenditure pace, with investors worried about a slowdown in future computing power purchases, suppressing AI chip demand. From the sector linkage perspective, Nvidia’s volatility directly affects the entire computing power industry chain, with optical modules and semiconductor equipment stocks weakening simultaneously. In the short term, Nvidia’s evening session is digesting profit-taking with oscillations; if key support fails, it will further drag down the AI hardware sector; if support holds, it is a healthy adjustment. Future focus should track cloud providers’ capital expenditure survey information, as any order reduction rumors will trigger rapid stock price fluctuations.
The Rocket (commercial space) sector showed an independent oscillating trend in the evening, clearly diverging from the AI chip sector. The core logic of the commercial space track is that reusable rockets reduce launch costs and satellite internet networking, combined with expectations for space computing power construction. It is an event-driven thematic sector with extremely high valuation elasticity and is less affected by U.S. Treasury yields compared to computing chips. In tonight’s collective tech stock pullback environment, rocket concept stocks showed relatively controlled volatility with significant fund divergence. The bullish logic is that subsequent rocket launch missions will materialize, satellite networking orders will increase, and space AI computing projects open long-term imagination space; the bearish logic is that most companies in the track are still in continuous cash burn stages, have not achieved stable profitability, have long earnings realization cycles, and face significant cash flow pressure. Short-term market performance highly depends on news catalysts, and without new positive news, continuous rises are difficult. Evening session fund battles diverged, with short-term funds speculating on launch mission news, while medium- to long-term funds remain cautious, awaiting substantial business milestones. This sector’s volatility is much higher than traditional tech stocks, with news often causing sharp rises and falls, making trading extremely risky.
The AI sector overall shows significant internal differentiation. On the computing hardware side, GPUs, storage, and chips weakened alongside Nvidia and SanDisk; AI software, large models, and enterprise intelligent agents and other application targets showed stronger resistance to declines. The current AI market theme has shifted from purely speculating on computing hardware to gradually rotating toward downstream commercialization. Market funds have begun to speculate on AI commercialization monetization, with enterprise AI intelligent agents, industry large models, and office AI tools becoming new fund deployment directions. However, the sector’s overall valuation remains high, with many small AI stocks lacking stable revenue. Once market risk appetite declines, funds quickly withdraw from thematic small caps. Tonight, with the market’s risk appetite falling, funds flowed out of hardware tracks and slightly shifted toward AI applications, forming internal sector rotation.
In summary, considering the linkage among the four targets, tonight’s market theme is U.S. Treasury yields suppressing high-valuation hardware assets. SanDisk and Nvidia both belong to the AI hardware industry chain, with their trends highly tied to the Nasdaq and U.S. Treasury yields; the rocket sector is an independent thematic track driven by events; the AI sector continues internal rotation, with hardware under pressure and applications relatively resilient. The core variables to track going forward are: first, changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which short-term determine tech growth stock valuations; second, cloud providers’ capital expenditure guidance, which directly determines...Staring at the screen for too long, the rational part of my brain clearly says this lousy trading volume is a death vacuum zone, but my fingers still can’t stop wanting to click buy. That greedy illusion of "what if this is the bottom" always buzzes into my head like a mosquito, which is even more tormenting than losing money.
The hardest part of this job isn’t the market fluctuations; it’s clearly the psychological tug-of-war when you have to be a spectator. My account clearly says "no position," but I just couldn’t help repeatedly closing and reopening the app, as if any slight market movement would let me catch some chance to get rich. This kind of self-conflict is really draining, and I have to hold on a bit longer, not letting those extra hormones ruin my discipline.
$BNB $CAKE $TWT 🚨Hidden macro bomb! Japanese bond yields surge to a 30-year high, BTC needs to be cautious
Many people are so fixated on US bonds that they overlook the chain reaction coming from Japan.
After the Japanese bond market opened, the 10-year government bond yield touched 3.075%, hitting a 30-year high.
The root cause is the transmission from US bond sell-offs; the US 10-year yield once surged to 5.13%, sending pressure across the ocean.
Combined with rising domestic inflation in Japan, the market is starting to bet on the Bank of Japan continuing to tighten by raising rates.
The key here is the yen carry trade.
In the past, a large amount of capital borrowed low-interest yen to chase high returns in US stocks and the crypto market.
Once Japanese rates continue to rise, the cost of carry trade funds increases, leading to gradual unwinding and capital returning.
Funds withdrawing from risk markets will hit BTC first and foremost.
Macro is never a story of a single market; the global bond market is a connected web.
US bonds are the main shock source, Japanese bonds are secondary aftershocks; liquidity tightening never affects just one place.
Next, focus on the Bank of Japan's statements; when carry trade positions are concentratedly unwound, volatility in the crypto market will be amplified.
BTC is already oscillating at a high level; such distant macro risks are the easiest triggers for a market crash.
$BTC
#日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高 US-Iran resume contact, if the risk premium recedes, high beta assets like SOL often benefit first. I lean slightly bullish in the short term, but with geopolitical fluctuations, discipline must override speculation.
Up 2.4% in 24h to 116.09, volume 9.817 million, both 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, with 19.93% room from the 4-hour low. Funding rate only 0.0035%, open interest 2.835 million, longs not overheated. Order book top 10 bid-ask ratio 0.93, slight selling pressure advantage, 116.57 is immediate resistance.
Trading plan: buy on pullback at 113.85, stop loss 111.65, target 117.35; if volume breaks through 116.57 directly, chase longs at 116.75, stop loss 114.55, target 119.85. Single position no more than 5% of total capital, exit immediately if stop loss hit, no holding losing positions.
— Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$SOL#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ $SOL US Treasury yields are rising across the board, high interest rates are hard to lower, and risk appetite is suppressed, yet KAITO is independently rallying against the trend. My judgment is short-term bullish but absolutely not chasing the highs. The four-hour and one-hour trends are both upward; the current price of 0.3495 is just one step away from the 24-hour high. The top 10 buy orders total 203,000 versus 91,000 sell orders, with a strength ratio of 2.23, clearly favoring buyers; the funding rate is only 0.005%, open interest is 12.15 million, sentiment is warm but not overheated. A light long position can be taken on a pullback to 0.3375, with a stop loss at 0.3245 and a target of 0.3685. If there is a volume breakout above 0.3595, then chase with a stop loss at 0.3435 and a target of 0.3815. Single position size should not exceed 10%, exit immediately if the breakout fails.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$KAITO#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ $KAITO I really can't keep shorting anymore; I've been getting beaten up too badly lately.
These past few days, I've been shorting to the point of doubting my life—whenever the market rises, the shorts get hit. Today, I decided to change my approach and start leaning towards the bulls during this pullback.
Just now, Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied again, indicating that this market-wide pullback might be basically over, and the overall upward trend hasn't changed for now.
Earlier, $PONS surged sharply riding the Robinhood chain ecosystem hype, but today it followed the market's pullback, dropping nearly 11% in 24 hours. The biggest feature of this coin is that when hype rises, it has great elasticity, but when funds retreat, it falls hard as well.
In the short term, I'm watching 0.60; if it holds, there's room for further rebound; if 0.60 breaks directly, then watch out for a move toward around 0.52. The resistance above is first seen at 0.73.
However, now that Bitcoin and Ethereum are pulling up again, I actually feel there's no need to keep holding a short bias.
The shorts have been getting hit for too long recently, so this time I want to try switching sides.
Taking advantage of the pullback, I bought a bit more.
Of course, before the trend is complete, still control position size—don't go all in just because you see a rise.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布