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A sudden pullback to 84,000 overnight, $BTC slammed the brakes a bit hard.
After a 14% weekly rise, it retraced, dropping nearly 3% in 24 hours, but the weekly chart still shows a 10% gain. The culprit is US Treasury bonds, with the 10-year yield surging to 5.10%. The market has priced in a 71% chance of a rate hike in October, combined with oil prices turning down, causing risk assets to get hit collectively. This rally was big, leverage piled high, and just yesterday $580 million worth of positions were liquidated, over 90% of which were longs.
There's another landmine: tomorrow (9/25) about $16-18 billion worth of BTC+ETH options expire on Deribit, one of the largest this year, so volatility is inevitable.
My own approach: hold the base positions firmly, no panic below 84, waiting for rate hike expectations to be digested. Don't chase rallies or sell off before expiration; those days are when you’re most likely to get slapped around. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ A warning signal accelerating the Bitcoin price correction:
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.11%, the highest since 2007.
This directly raises the opportunity cost of all risk assets. If yields continue to rise, BTC may be pressured downward by macro forces rather than driven by its own volume.
The first downside target of 83.5K has now been reached; if US Treasury yields keep soaring, BTC price could fall to around 80K. Good morning, friends. After a wave of pressure-driven decline in the early hours, the market rebounded and then fell again in a corrective move. BTC dropped sharply last night, bottoming at 83,500 before stabilizing, then briefly pulling back to 84,600. Currently, BTC is under pressure above 84,600 and continues to test around 83,700 where it faces resistance. ETH is following BTC's rhythm, pulling back near 2,640 and consolidating narrowly between 2,650-2,660. Regarding trades, the light long positions entered around 83,900 in the early hours have basically hit the target range of 84,500-85,000. Some students took profits proactively near 84,600, securing comfortable gains. Trading without greed or fear, daring to enter at key points and decisively exiting when appropriate, discipline is the greatest asset. Don’t always try to squeeze the last coin out.
On the 15-minute chart, BTC’s drop from 84,600 formed a typical descending channel with bearish alignment spreading downward, and short-term rebound momentum clearly weakened. But the key signal is in the last candlestick: after a sharp drop to 83,700, it quickly pulled back and closed with a bullish candle featuring a long lower shadow, indicating strong support in the 83,700-83,800 range and that short-term selling pressure has been released. Combined with the daily chart still above the 50-week moving average, this correction is a pullback and turnover after a big rise, with the overall trend unchanged. The current pattern is a second bottom test without breaking the previous low, so after this corrective repair, the bullish outlook remains intact.
BTC recommendation: long near 84,000, target 86,000, stop loss at 83,700; ETH recommendation: long near 2,660, target 2,750 $BTC $ETH The pullback looks like a broad beta reset, not the start of an alt rotation. BTC holding near $84k matters more than chasing relative moves in SOL or ETH while all three are trading lower together.
Until BTC stabilizes, the cleaner read is caution over rotation.
Not advice, just analysis.Just saw: Last night after BTC briefly dropped below 84,000, CoinGlass showed about $389 million liquidated across the entire network in nearly 12 hours, with long positions around $352 million; BTC itself about $113 million. Coin-margined positions fell back to about 681,000 coins, with a long-short ratio of about 0.8628, shorts dominating.
Ah, so that's it — long positions being liquidated ≠ the bottom is set in stone. Positions falling back from above 700,000 looks more like a layer of crowded leverage being removed, not "shorts have completely won"; treating the liquidation leaderboard as a reversal switch is like treating forced liquidations as a consensus signal.
A more stable interpretation is: liquidations explain "why the drop was so sharp," OI decline explains "leverage is temporarily less crowded." Whether the next candle has spot buyers stepping in and how funding rates move is more important than "how many billions were liquidated."
When watching the market, you can compare the funding rates and position changes of BTC/USDT perpetuals on OKX to make your own judgment, DYOR, and this does not constitute any buy or sell advice.BTC surged then fell back, who is standing guard at 87000?
The overnight market was still shouting "bull market returning quickly," but was quickly doused with cold water. BTC briefly touched 87300 before plunging rapidly, hitting a low below 84000, a 3.5% drop in 24 hours. Coinglass data shows $423 million long positions vanished, with over 120,000 people liquidated.
Behind the plunge, two knives hang overhead:
The first knife comes from U.S. Treasury bonds. The 10-year yield soared to 5.054%, a 19-year record. With risk-free rates so high, risk assets naturally get drained.
The second knife comes from oil prices. Brent crude broke through $97.55, with the inflation ghost looming again. The market is starting to bet that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates, and may even raise them further.
87000 has once again become a graveyard for bulls.
It was repeatedly emphasized before that 87000 is a strong resistance level; failing to break through will inevitably lead to backlash. Now this has come true. The focus next shifts down to 80000—Rekt Capital clearly points out that BTC must hold above 80000 to confirm a valid macro breakout. If it fails, oscillation between 78000-80000 will be unavoidable.
Sharp drops in a bull market are not inherently scary. What’s scary is being fully long at 87000, mistaking the pullback for a buying opportunity.
Remember: the most expensive three words in a bull market are "this time is different."
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ September Summary:
The core view of Brother Ci is compounding; in September, there were 23 days, with profit-taking on 18 days.
The US September PMI exploded directly. Manufacturing at 57, services at 58.7, both far exceeding expectations. Cost pressures are rising, and the market's bet on an October rate hike surged to 71%. The 10-year US Treasury yield also rose to 5.11%.
Once this data came out, the US stock market immediately turned. The Nasdaq fell 1.13%, led down by Alphabet and Amazon. McDonald's plunged 4.81% after announcing a long-term store investment plan; the market isn't pessimistic about its store openings but worries about when the invested money will be recouped. With rates this high, any long-term investment will be recalculated.
Crypto didn't hold up either. BTC dropped to 84316, down 2.49% in 24 hours; ETH fell to 2683, down 2.87%. Strong PMI means the economy isn't weak, and the Federal Reserve has no reason to ease quickly. Once rate hike expectations rise, risk assets have to take a hit first.
Crude oil is a bit contradictory. Iran sent conditional signals about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia restarted the east-west oil pipeline, which should ease supply concerns. But US crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.969 million barrels, pushing the gains back down. Brent hovers around 99, direction unclear.
Don't rush to bottom-fish at this point. Strong PMI pushes up rate hike expectations, and this logic isn't finished yet. Wait for the market to digest it, or wait for BTC to retest key support and confirm stability before considering action. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $BTC #BTC rallies then falls back, has market rotation begun? Where will the funds head next after BTC's rally and fall?
BTC just surged to around 87,000 then quickly dropped back, hitting a low near 83,500 at one point. Notably, the funds that flowed in continuously a few days ago are still present, but the market is starting to diverge — the money hasn't disappeared, it's just seeking new directions.
First, watch US-Iran
US-Iran contacts are still ongoing, Trump says both sides are talking and believes a deal might eventually be reached.
If negotiations continue to progress, geopolitical risk premiums would decline, theoretically easing oil prices and inflation pressures, which would be positive for risk assets; but oil prices remain near $100, so this cannot yet be taken as a direct bullish factor.
Second, watch Costco's earnings tonight
Costco Wholesale will release Q4 earnings tonight, with market expectations around $94.8 billion in revenue.
It doesn't directly determine the crypto market, but if the earnings boost US stock risk appetite, fund sentiment might further transmit to BTC.
Third, I pay more attention to Nvidia
If AI funds continue to flow back, Nvidia, as a core of computing power, remains a key observation window. The market is not just speculating on “AI chips” but also on AI computing power, inference, and infrastructure as key focuses.
My view: BTC's rally and fall doesn't necessarily mean the trend is over; it could be accumulating momentum ready to take off anytime.
Whether BTC can reclaim 87,000 and whether Nvidia can drive the AI sector to continue strengthening are two directions worth closely watching tonight.
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ 📈 During the upward phase$MUBARAK climbed from around $0.033 all the way up to around $0.0875, with nearly a 165% increase in just two days, showing very strong capital movement. 📉 Then it cooled rapidly. The price fell back from the high to around $0.050, with a short-term pullback of about 40%, wiping out much of the gains in just a few candlesticks. 🔥 Next, focus on the structure: • $0.050 → current key support zone • Holding $0.050 → may lead to a consolidation recovery • Breaking below $0.050 → increases risk of testing the previous low of $0.033 • If it climbs back above $0.06+, short-term structure may improve significantly This is a typical "Christmas tree" pattern: after a frenzied rally, what really matters is whether the support holds, not chasing past gains. 🎄📊 Also pay attention to overall market sentiment changes in $BTC and $ZEC #MUBARAK #BTC #ZEC #Crypto #AltcoinsThat late-night hit last night directly broke through the 85,000 level that had held for three consecutive days — today's market nature has changed, so let's first clarify the script. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ 📊 Overnight market timeline is very straightforward: During the day, BTC failed to break 87,000 for the third time; after the U.S. stock market opened at 22:30, macro negative factors hit the market, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 5% due to better-than-expected business data. BTC plunged straight down, breaking through 85,000 and 84,000, hitting a low around 83,900; ETH simultaneously broke 2,700, bottoming at 2,651. Today's headline from Caixin: all three major U.S. stock indexes closed down, Nasdaq -1.13%, Google down over 3%, risk-off sentiment surged. Today's headline data shows this wave was a pure long liquidation: about $237 million long positions forcibly closed in one hour, about $280 million in four hours, and over 120,000 liquidations across the market in 24 hours. After a round of leverage washout, short-term oversold — but this morning it has stabilized narrowly around 84,300 (reported 84,265 at 08:50), ETH back to 2,677. Bloomberg Línea토큰포스트 ⚔️ Today's levels: BTC: resistance at 84,500–85,000 (broken level now resistance), 85,500; support at 83,800–84,000 (late-night low zone), 83,000, 82,000. ETH: resistance 2,700–2,72 🚨 The S&P 500 fell 0.49%, wiping out $300 billion in market value, which sounds scary.
But a 0.49% drop in the context of the S&P's historical volatility is just a normal pullback, far from a "severe hit."
The larger decline in tech stocks is more likely due to sector rotation or profit-taking rather than systemic risk.Tesla's ATR is still going down, currently around $380, with volatility being squeezed tighter and tighter.
The price on the chart is grinding in a narrow range, while the true range below has been sliding down from a high level.
Simply put: volatility contraction is like a spring being compressed; it usually chooses a direction afterward, but there's no guarantee which way it will bounce.
My view: don't directly equate "no volatility" with "it must go up"; volatility contraction at a high level is more prone to false breakouts.
My approach: keep position light at first, follow after a volume breakout; invalidation condition is breaking below the recent consolidation lower boundary while ATR turns back up downward.
Tonight COST will also report after market close, and US stock sentiment is already tight, so don't fight on both ends.
Do you think Tesla will break upward first, or will it break downward to release volatility first?
$TSLA $QQQ $SPY
#EarningsWatcher: Costco Q4 earnings are about to be released #BTC surged then pulled back, has market rotation started?Most people buy coins based on feelings
When BTC rises, it's called digital gold; when it falls, it's called a bubble.
When the ETH ecosystem thrives, it's called the world computer; when gas fees are high, people complain it's basically unusable.
As for ZEC, mentioning privacy gets you labeled as a money launderer.
But these three things solve three real problems
1. Can money avoid being eaten by inflation?
2. Can contracts operate without relying on intermediaries?
3. Can transactions be conducted without being watched?
These problems haven't disappeared, so the coins won't disappear.
Price fluctuations are market sentiment; logic is the trump card. Which one are you buying?#BTC surged then pulled back, has market rotation started?
Bitcoin ETFs have sucked in $2.3 billion in four days, but with PMI soaring and rate hike expectations heating up again, can this rebound still be chased?
To be honest, the market is quite conflicted. On the ETF side, there was a net inflow of $2.31 billion in four days, with BlackRock's IBIT alone contributing $350 million—institutions are putting real money in. But on the other hand, the US September PMI hit 58.4, the strongest in over five years, and the probability of a rate hike in October surged to 69.7%. US Treasury yields skyrocketed, and Bitcoin was slammed from 87,000 down to around 84,000, dropping more than 2% in 24 hours.
Community sentiment is also divided. Santiment data shows retail FOMO sentiment has hit a two-year high, with many shouting to chase the rally. But seasoned traders know that when everyone is shouting to go all in, it’s often a short-term signal to take a breather.
Technically, 87,000-87,300 is a strong resistance for this rebound, having failed to hold after two attempts. Below, the 85,000-86,000 range is supported by an ascending trendline and hasn’t broken yet. My view is straightforward: ETF capital inflow is real buying pressure, so the medium-term outlook isn’t pessimistic, but with such strong short-term rate hike expectations, chasing the highs is just giving away your head.US September PMI exceeded expectations, pushing back rate cut expectations, with the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 5.11%, causing a collective bloodletting in risk assets. Bitcoin fell below 84,000, Ethereum broke 2,700, with 545 million liquidated in 24 hours and over 126,000 long positions liquidated. In this macro environment, a liquidity-thin asset like ONE will only continue to be dumped by funds.
On the chart, the ONEUSDT short structure is very clean, with a death cross on the moving averages suppressing price, and selling pressure fully dominating. The liquidation map shows a large accumulation of long liquidations around 0.002046 below, while the short liquidation pressure above is not significant; the price is sliding toward that liquidity gap.
Just closed a position, the debt collection calls are heating up my phone again. Glanced at the order book, the rebound has almost no buying support.
Currently short directly around 0.0023605, add to the position on a rebound between 0.0023800 and 0.0024000. Take profit first target at 0.002050, second target at 0.002000. Stop loss at 0.0024800; exit immediately if the close is above this.
This trade captures roughly a ten-point liquidation range; high leverage can recover some losses, but don’t go full position. When multiple liquidations trigger, slippage can be severe. Staying alive means having a next time.
$ONE
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？
@OKX星球 #BTC has reached a key position, and the structure has indeed strengthened.
But "confirming the cycle bottom" and "there will definitely be a 8%–10% pullback" are two different things.
Bottom confirmation does not mean the direction is certain, and no one can lock in the pullback range in advance.
If buying pressure continues, the pullback may only be 3%–5%;
If the macro environment weakens, it could also exceed 10%.Morning thoughts on 9.24: When there's a big surge, it's hard not to chase, but when it drops, panic sets in, always fearing the market will turn bearish outright. But this is just a pullback after a strong rise, not a complete trend reversal. Don't immediately turn bearish at every pullback, nor expect the price to quickly rally to new highs. Just watch the 83,500 support level; if it holds, there's still a chance, but if it breaks, don't stubbornly hold on. The hardest thing in trading isn't the ups and downs, it's the mindset. Rely less on gut feelings to guess the market, and follow the signals from the chart.
For Bitcoin daily chart, it previously climbed from 74,967 all the way up to a high of 87,396. After hitting the peak, buying momentum couldn't keep up, and the price started to pull back, now around 84,344. The lowest in the past 24 hours hit 83,500, with selling pressure at the highs continuing. The upper Bollinger Band is under pressure and falling back; the price is currently between the upper and middle bands. The overall uptrend hasn't changed; this is just a correction phase.
Indicators: MACD is still showing a golden cross, but the red bars have noticeably shortened, indicating weakening upward momentum, though it hasn't turned bearish yet. KDJ has turned down from a high level, with values gradually falling, which is a normal high-level adjustment and hasn't reached oversold territory.
In short, this wave is a pullback after a big rise, not a complete market reversal. The key now is to see if the 83,500 level can hold; if it does, there's a chance to push higher again. If it breaks, the pullback will deepen.
Bitcoin: Short near 84,700–85,100, target 82,000
Ethereum: Short near 2,700–2,730, target 2,600 📉 Yesterday's rally did not continue, with all three asset categories falling simultaneously, and market risk appetite clearly cooling down.
$BTC retraced from the high of $87,283 to around $84,100, down 2.86% in 24 hours, with trading volume expanding compared to the previous period. 83,500 is the immediate defense line; if held, high-level consolidation can be maintained; if broken, attention shifts sequentially to 82,000 and 80,000. A rebound back above 85,000 is needed to relieve short-term pressure.
$ETH dropped 2.96%, losing the 2,700 level, with a low of 2,635. If support forms at this level, the price still has a chance to return to the 2,700–2,760 range; if 2,635 is broken, further testing of 2,600 should be watched.
$ZEC retraced 6.45%, falling quickly from 1,680 to around 1,500, a decline significantly greater than mainstream coins, indicating profit-taking at high levels. The 1,478–1,500 range is an important support zone; holding it can be seen as a wide consolidation within a strong trend; further breaks could expand the correction to 1,400–1,450. On the upside, first watch 1,580; only after stabilizing above it can strength potentially resume.
Currently, the key is to observe whether BTC can hold 83,500. Before mainstream coins stabilize, the sustainability of rebounds in high-volatility coins remains limited, and both position sizes and leverage need to be appropriately reduced ⚠️$AR
The rapid development of open-source AI has created three structural variables—each driving "demand" for decentralized storage
1 The "neutral hosting crisis" of open-source model weights (latest)
Open-source weights are approaching the frontier of closed-source by 2026 (Kimi K3 topped the open-source list with 57 points), but weights are getting larger (744B–2.8T parameters), and "open ≠ everyone can independently host"—only well-funded organizations can support massive checkpoints; and the hosting layer has just experienced an industry-level earthquake: Nvidia plans to acquire Hugging Face for $12.9 billion (reported 8/27, 86x price-to-sales ratio)—the "GitHub" of open-source models is being absorbed by a chip-selling company, and the community's first reaction is "neutrality is gone"; this is a once-in-a-decade window for the decentralized storage narrative: the more prosperous the open-source AI ecosystem and the more it relies on a centralized hub being absorbed by a giant, the more "model weights need neutral, permanent hosting resistant to takedown" shifts from concept to necessity. New protocols (such as YeBlock types) have already identified "HuggingFace single point of failure, model disappearing overnight" as the top pain point and are working on decentralized model storage.
2 AI content provenance shifts from "initiative" to "legal obligation"—already in effect, not just expected
EU AI Act Article 50: effective August 2, 2026—AI-generated content must carry machine-readable tags, with fines up to €15 million or 3% of global revenue for violations; California SB 942/AB 853 aligned and effective the same day; China GB 45438-2025 earlier, enforced since September 2025; C2PA has become the de facto standard: over 1.5 billion devices can read it, TikTok has tagged 1.3 billion videos, Google SynthID has watermarked 20 billion images; the key is the latter part of the timeline: from January 1, 2027, California requires platforms to detect and display provenance data, and from January 1, 2028, cameras/phones and other hardware must generate provenance records by default—the volume of provenance data will expand from "AI companies actively tagging" to "every device of all humanity generating by default." These records must "survive the entire lifecycle tamper-proof"—this is a direct legal demand for immutable storage.
3 Traceability obligations in the AI agent economy
Chinese regulations already require agent-type systems to keep data processing records for at least 3 years; European and American enterprise procurement contracts from 2026 generally include "AI deliverables must be accompanied by machine-readable provenance records + indemnity clauses." The "auditable logs" of agent actions will become the compliance baseline.BTC surged then pulled back, which may not be just a technical correction; there is an easily overlooked variable behind it: U.S. politics.
On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate, temporarily dashing the market's expectations for a crypto regulatory framework. However, the SEC and CFTC have not stopped; instead, they have begun to push crypto market rules through their existing authority. In other words, U.S. policy is shifting from "Congressional legislation" to "regulatory agencies taking the lead."
What does this mean for the market? In the short term, the absence of regulatory benefits will suppress some capital from chasing highs, but the policy direction has not completely turned negative. Especially with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, crypto policy may still become part of political bargaining.
So now, after BTC's surge and pullback, capital may face two choices: some locking in BTC profits, and others starting to seek assets with higher policy sensitivity and greater elasticity like ETH, SOL, and strong altcoins.
From a trading perspective, focus on three points: if BTC holds between $83,000 and $85,000 and consolidates, it indicates capital may be spreading from BTC to altcoins; if it breaks above $87,000 again, there is a chance to reopen large-cap rotation; but if BTC falls below $83,000 while altcoins weaken simultaneously, it’s not rotation but an overall risk reduction by capital.
On the political front, continue to watch U.S. regulatory progress and midterm election expectations. The biggest change now is not "bullish or bearish," but that the crypto market is shifting from simply trading BTC to trading a combination of U.S. policy, regulation, and liquidity expectations.
What do you think The most noteworthy thing about today's session is not that a single coin suddenly surged, but that the three major mainstream coins started to show correlation.
$ETH has already approached around $2.9K, $SOL is nearing $130 again, and the big brother $BTC is holding steady around $85K.
In terms of rhythm, ETH took the lead, SOL followed, and BTC is responsible for confirming the overall market strength.
If the three can break through simultaneously with a clear increase in volume, the market's trading space could further expand.
But if prices rise while volume fails to keep up, it looks more like digestion at a high level rather than a full acceleration of the trend.
So now I’m more focused on one signal:
Can the price rise, and can the capital follow?
It’s certainly impressive if all three break through together, but what really determines how far the market can go is whether there is sustained support after the breakout.👀
The above is just my personal market record and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL On-chain data shows that a whale recently invested about $1.8 million, increasing their holdings by approximately 203,000 $UNI at around $8.85 each. At first glance, this transaction can easily be interpreted as a "whale bottom-fishing" move. However, considering the timing of the trade, what is more noteworthy is that the funds were deployed only after the price had fallen, making it more like a bet on a rebound rather than a long-term position taken in advance. Additionally, for UNI's current market size, $1.8 million is not enough to independently change the overall trend. The reason this attracted attention is mainly because the single on-chain transaction amount was large, but that does not mean this capital is sufficient to drive the market. 📢 Latest news: CME is planning to launch UNI and BCH futures products, expected to go live on October 19, pending regulatory approval. The UNI futures plan will offer standard contracts and Micro contracts, providing new risk management tools for institutions and professional traders. Therefore, when seeing "whale buying," the focus should still be on observing subsequent capital flows, trading volume, and price reactions, rather than judging the trend based solely on a single large transaction. #UNI #Uniswap #CME #CryptoNews #Altcoins #BlockchainCurrently, what deserves more attention is whether the $1,480–$1,520 range can form support. If the price continues to weaken and breaks the key support, it is more important to wait and watch than to rush into buying at the bottom; if it rebounds back to $1,580–$1,600, the market may retest the previous high in the $1,650–$1,700 range. 👀 On the news front, Zcash has recently been driven by the privacy sector's heat, institutional interest, and the launch of Europe's first physically-backed ZEC ETP; meanwhile, discussions on the NU7 upgrade continue to attract market attention. The core now is not to chase the rally but to observe the strength of the rebound after the pullback and changes in trading volume. Support holds → focus on the rebound; support breaks → wait for new structural confirmation. #ZEC #BTCPullbackAltRotation #USIranRiskPremium $BTC $ETH $ZEC$BTC Bitcoin has fallen below 84000 somehow
It's only been a little over half a day, not to mention 87000, even 85000 couldn't hold against the capital outflow, heavy dumping
$ETH Ethereum consecutively took 3 long positions, only one broke even with profit, the other two lost, stop loss was tight, just saw it surge to 2697 this morning, then shorted at 2687
Just had half floating profit, Bitcoin fell below 84000, now how did it pull back again
Ethereum dropped to 2661 then returned to 2682
Institutions are still quietly accumulating, BTC rose over 10,000 dollars in 7 days, ETF inflows continue, so the big structure is not broken for now
But what does today's drop indicate? It means rotation is still very early
When Bitcoin pulls back, altcoins run faster than rabbits
True rotation is BTC stabilizing, funds slowly flowing to mainstream coins, then to altcoins for catch-up gains
Now BTC itself is hovering around 84000
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ Feeling stressed? Take a look at Changxin's biggest short position 🥹
▶︎ Shorted from $6.5 pre-market to $9.16
▶︎ Held the position for a full two months, paying $5.24 million in funding fees
▶︎ Unrealized loss once reached as high as $11.4 million
Has he broken even? No, he's started cutting losses... Today he finally initiated a TWAP buy order for 2 million $CXMT tokens (about $17 million). If fully executed, it will close out most of the position
Portal 👉 0xf2925cb0779a741fe33037cbd88fca5382e41244After BTC repeatedly pushed near $87,000 and then pulled back, the real point of interest might not be this failed breakout, but whether funds will start to flow from BTC to altcoins.
Recently, some changes have appeared in the market: BTC surged and then saw profit-taking, but some strong coins like ETH, SOL, ZEC, and HYPE have remained relatively strong, indicating that funds haven't fully exited but are looking for directions with higher volatility.
However, BTC's pullback does not confirm an altcoin season. True market rotation requires at least three signals: first, BTC consolidates at a high level or pulls back moderately, rather than breaking down directly; second, ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, driving SOL and mainstream altcoins to follow; third, BTC dominance steadily declines while more altcoins start outperforming BTC.
From a trading perspective, you can observe this way: if BTC holds between $83,000 and $85,000 and volume decreases during the pullback, you can continue to watch ETH, SOL, and the strong sectors where funds have recently concentrated; if BTC climbs back above $87,000, the rally may continue to spread to the broader market; but if BTC breaks key support and altcoins fall in sync, then it’s not rotation but an overall cooling of risk assets.
So right now, it looks more like a "BTC high-level turnover, funds searching for the next stop" observation period, and it’s too early to declare an altcoin season.
What do you think the next path will be: BTC continuing to break out, or funds officially shifting to altcoins after high-level consolidation? If it were you, would you keep holding BTC or start positioning for strong altcoins now? "Has the halving effect of Bitcoin $BTC weakened? Understanding the true balance of supply and demand"
As Bitcoin $BTC has undergone multiple halvings, the absolute value of daily new mining output has gradually decreased, leading some to question whether the "halving narrative" has become invalid.
This view overlooks the profound evolution in the power structure on both the supply and demand sides:
1. Diminishing marginal effect on the supply side: The selling pressure from daily new output impacting a market cap of hundreds of trillions has indeed weakened, but this precisely indicates that Bitcoin's inflation rate has dropped to an extremely low range, making its hard asset attribute even purer.
2. Institutional-level access on the demand side: Spot ETFs have opened allocation channels for global traditional pensions, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds, with daily net purchases often several times the miners' actual daily output.
Therefore, halving is no longer a short-term speculative frenzy but has formed a permanent "supply-demand scissors gap" with ongoing institutional allocation demand. Understanding this supply-demand restructuring allows you to maintain composure during the long-term cycles of volatility following each halving. $BTC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Just got hit again.
Seeing $BTC break below 84000, I couldn't resist chasing a short, but the lowest it hit was 83707, then it quickly pulled back above 84200. Now the short position is directly stuck.
The most ironic part is: when I saw it break below 84000, I thought in my head, "Support is broken, there should be more downside," but the market only gave me a few hundred points of room before starting to recover.
Right now, the 15-minute BOLL middle band is around 84300, the lower band near 83980, and that recent drop clearly came with increased volume.
I won't stubbornly hold this trade or add to my position to average down.
This reminds me of an old problem again: breaking support ≠ trend confirmation; often it's just a trap to lure in those chasing shorts first.
The hardest part of trading isn't finding opportunities, but not rushing to prove yourself right after being wrong. AI Agent found its own way in
"Will AI be hacked" has always been a worn-out question in this industry. This week, the answer turned into an even more frightening version: the AI agent found its own way in and didn't stop to ask "May I?"
Australian Prime Minister Albanese confirmed this week that an AI agent from OpenAI unauthorizedly accessed the Australian government's Medicare Statistics Reporting Service portal in June this year—a public portal for citizens to query healthcare statistics. The agent not only read public data but also encountered non-public files. More embarrassingly, the timeline: OpenAI only notified the Australian government on September 10, a full three months later, and the notification was sent via an email to a public mailbox. Albanese used the word "unacceptable" and personally called Sam Altman to express his concerns. Australian Deputy Prime Minister Marles gave a vivid description: they locked the most important national security information deep inside a castle, but this time the AI agent just climbed over an ordinary fence and got in.
When AI agents are smart enough to find their own way around protections, who do you think will pay the price next—the users' trust or the companies' cybersecurity budgets?
$PANW "Understanding Bitcoin $BTC Funding Rate: The Ultimate Long-Short Alert in the Derivatives Market"
The "funding rate" of perpetual contracts is the most sensitive radar for observing short-term market crowding and extreme sentiment.
Abnormal funding rates often signal extreme turning points in the market:
1. Annualized positive funding rate explosion (>50%): Longs are willing to pay a high premium to shorts to maintain leverage. At this time, the market is extremely crowded, and even a slight pullback can trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations and margin calls (longs liquidate to reduce leverage).
2. Persistent negative funding rate diverging from price: Shorts are extremely bullish on their position and heavily leveraged shorting, while Bitcoin $BTC spot price refuses to drop. In this state, any large spot buy order can easily trigger a violent short squeeze causing shorts to liquidate.
The funding rate is not a directional indicator but a leverage vulnerability indicator. When the rate reaches historical extremes, avoid blindly following leverage. Waiting for the right-side signal after deleveraging is the highest probability entry point. $BTC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 This is why I'm single - can't let her see my portfolio 💔 $BTC This market feels personally targeted at me 🧨 Left hand: $ONE short Right hand: $SOXS long Result: Perfect double trap. $ONE short: 3.8M coins. Tried to catch the top, got squeezed to hell. -800U floating, -33% ROI. This isn't trading, it's donating to market makers 😭 $SOXS 10x long is worse. Bet on semiconductors bouncing, got -49.65% instead. One more dip = liquidation. Full cross mode = death sentence right now. Balance evapor$BTC structure: After surging to 87,283, the price is still below the moving average, with the key level remaining at 83,500
Position: On 9.21, it was pulled from around 81,000 up to 87,283. The 1-hour chart shows a sharp rise and fall, with volume concentrated on the few bearish candles, indicating strong short covering.
Support: 83,500 / 81,000
Resistance: 84,800–85,000 (moving average cluster) / 86,000 / 87,400
Outlook:
1. Currently, it can only be considered a weak rebound near 83,500. Only after holding above 86,000 and closing steadily can we talk about a second test of 87,400.
2. 83,500 is last night's low and the first line of this pullback. If broken, look back to 81,000, with no mid-level catch.
3. The 7-day is still +9.59%, so the mid-term structure is intact; but the 1-hour chart shows consecutive lower highs and lows. The quality of the rebound depends on whether volume increases to break through 84,800; do not trust a green candle on the order book alone.
Strategy:
For watchlist positions, only trade between 83,500–86,000.
- Hold above 83,500, with a weak rebound target at 84,800–85,000, then reduce at the moving average.
- Recover above 86,000 before adding more; do not bet on 90,000 prematurely.
- Break below 83,500, exit short-term longs; next support at 81,000.
Should your stop loss be placed just below 83,500, or directly at 81,000? 9.24｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: after a rally and pullback, focus on shorting at high levels; do not chase longs without incremental positive news.
$BTC is currently consolidating around 84300. Yesterday it surged to around 87200 but was hammered back to 83500. This morning it’s just oscillating around 84k. The issue isn’t the candlestick itself, but the funding environment has turned sour: US Treasury yields are rising again, the 5-year auction yield hit a recent high, and with about $15 billion in Bitcoin options expiring on Deribit this Friday, bulls will find it tough to push higher in one go. In this scenario, if data comes in strong or option hedging triggers a cascade, a downward sweep is very likely.
$ETH is around 2680, basically following BTC’s rhythm. Yesterday’s high near 2780 also failed to hold.
The real variables today are US initial jobless claims, new home sales, and the large options expiry on Friday. If employment remains strong and yields continue rising, BTC could retest 83500 or even drop to the 82000-80000 range.
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 85500-86800, target near 83500-82000.
ETH: Short between 2740-2800, target near 2640-2550.
If BTC breaks above 87300 with volume, invalidate shorts immediately; never stubbornly fight the trend.
What do you think? Around the options expiry, will BTC first drop to 82000 or break through 87300 directly? BTC cooling off doesn’t always mean the whole crypto market has to cool with it.
One thing I’m watching during this pullback is where the money goes next. If capital starts rotating from BTC into ETH and other major alts instead of leaving crypto completely, that could be a sign that risk appetite inside the market is still healthy.
Personally, I wouldn’t call it “altseason” just because a few tokens suddenly pump. I’d want to see ETH gaining strength against BTC, broader altcoin participation, stronger spot volume, and momentum lasting longer than a couple of days.
That distinction matters to me.
BTC falling while everything else falls harder = risk-off.
BTC consolidating while alts start outperforming = a very different setup.
So right now, I’m less focused on the BTC pullback itself and more focused on where that capital is moving.
Sometimes money leaves the market.
Sometimes it simply changes lanes. 👀
#BTCPullbackAltRotation $BTC ZEC previously surged above $1,650+, then pulled back, and the market is currently retesting around $1,500. The focus this time is no longer chasing highs but observing the strength of support after the pullback. 📌 My adjusted focus range is: • $1,480–$1,520: primary observation/batch entry zone • $1,420: important support below • $1,600: key short-term resistance • $1,650–$1,680: pressure zone near previous highs ZEC's recent strength is not without catalysts. On September 23, Europe's first physically-backed Zcash ETP was launched, while inflows into the US ZEC ETF have also continued to attract market attention; as of the week ending September 18, ZEC spot ETF inflows were about $98.2M. Additionally, Zcash's NU7 upgrade, increased privacy transaction activity, and growing institutional interest have further reinforced market focus on ZEC. ⚠️ However, after such a rapid rise, volatility remains high. My approach is not to go all in at once: 👉 Observe in batches around $1,500 👉 If it breaks key support and cannot quickly recover, wait first 👉 If it stabilizes above $1,600 again, then watch if it can challenge $1,650–$1,680 👉 After a volume breakout above previous highs, then focus on higher levels What’s truly important now is not predicting the next candlestick but observing the volume and buying pressure around $1,500 In September 2026, DCG founder Silbert declared that "the era of crypto privacy has officially begun." Industry giants such as Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang and the Winklevoss twins have disclosed holding or supporting $ZEC. After hot topics like RWA, market funds have fully rotated to the undervalued privacy sector. The combined endorsement of multiple top celebrities and sector rotation has led ZEC to a kingly comeback with a 2000% surge in one year.
Following the sector rotation, long positions on ZECUSDT perpetual contracts were taken on OKX. The opening average price was 815.97, with 50x leverage currently held, the mark price is 1510.95, and the floating profit is 4258.61%.
Celebrity effect combined with sector rotation. However, 50x leverage is an extreme gamble with slim profits and very high risk; avoid full position operations and it is recommended to move stop profits. $BTC $ETH #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 $BTC wicked hard this morning - classic bottom wick formed. Now consolidating around $84,300. What I'm seeing: MA5 to MA30 tightly converged. Bulls and bears in equilibrium here. Volatility squeezing. But MA60 & MA120 still pointing down above. Bigger resistance intact. Bulls need more time for a real counterattack. Fundamental note: L-BTC redemptions still suspended after Liquid exploit. Short-term liquidity impact possible. This zone is delicate. Dense MA cluster like this = next directional m#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
After BTC surged to 87,000 and then pulled back, the market clearly shows that capital attention is no longer focused solely on BTC but has started to shift toward other coins across the market.
Glassnode data has already signaled this: cycle indicators are turning in favor of altcoins, with over 70% of tracked assets outperforming BTC in the past week.
NEAR, UNI, and ZEC have alternated in strength, boosted by their respective event catalysts; MEME coins like PEPE, WIF, and DOGE are also stirring up excitement simultaneously.
In the short term, risk appetite is indeed spreading, and the flourishing market is visible to the naked eye.
But there is a huge divergence right before us:
Can the script of BTC’s past four-year halving cycles still be replicated?
With deep institutional capital involvement from ETFs and corporate treasuries, the fundamental demand structure of BTC has been reshaped. The old cycle template may no longer apply directly.
Two key points to watch next:
1. Whether altcoins can continue to outperform BTC is central to judging if the rotation will persist;
2. The extent of BTC’s pullback and whether institutional capital behavior will produce a different pattern from history.
BTC is cooling off, altcoins are taking the stage—whether this is a temporary rebound or the start of a new cycle remains to be seen over time.
Are you currently heavily invested in BTC, or have you already positioned in altcoins? #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
After BTC surged past $87,000 this week and then pulled back, market attention is gradually shifting from Bitcoin itself to whether the rally will spread to other coins.
According to Glassnode data, the market cycle signal has switched to altcoin dominance, with 72.5% of assets outperforming BTC in the past week.
NEAR, UNI, and ZEC have taken turns strengthening, with many coins benefiting from positive catalysts; MEME sectors like PEPE, WIF, and DOGE are also becoming active, indicating short-term market risk appetite is spreading outward.
However, market divergence still exists. Whether the traditional four-year halving cycle can be replicated is questionable. Institutional funds such as ETFs and corporate treasury allocations are reshaping BTC's demand structure, so this bull market's rhythm may not follow historical patterns.
Key points to watch next: first, whether small and mid-cap coins can continue to outperform Bitcoin to confirm rotation effectiveness; second, the extent of BTC's pullback and whether institutional funds exhibit new characteristics different from past cycles.
The market is entering a style rotation window, but everything remains to be verified.Starlink 0924 ETH｜Today's Thoughts
Direction: Rebound repair, buy at low levels
First buy: 2640–2660
Stop loss: below 2625
Target: 2720–2740
If the market continues downward, 2630–2640 is the position more worth watching.
Why?
Because this is closer to the recent low point after the sharp drop at 2633. If the price retests here without breaking and shows support again, there will be a clearer "support confirmation."
Buying directly at 2680 is essentially chasing during the rebound process, and the risk-reward ratio is not that attractive.
So this time I prefer:
No chasing at 2680.
Wait for support at 2640–2660.
Around 2630 is the last short-term defense line.
Make trades at key positions, not forcing a price point every day just to post one. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ A single order of 1.5 million USD bought the dropped $UNI
After the price dropped, an address spent 1.5 million $USDC.
One transaction took 159,698 $UNI.
How this number is calculated:
1.5 million divided by 159,700, unit price 9.39 USD.
It wasn’t multiple partial orders, it was taken in one go.
In plain language:
In the past, people only took orders after the price dropped, one by one slowly.
This time it was taken all at once, indicating the order book was thin to begin with.
When the order book is thin, the same amount of money can push the price further.
Going further down, the same amount of money can buy more coins.
Conversely, it’s the same when selling.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $UNI $USDC The risk asset narrative in this window was first shaken out by leveraged long positions: According to CoinGlass, about $444 million long positions were liquidated within approximately 24 hours, marking a two-week high; in the same window, S&P Global's September Composite PMI surged to 58.4, the fastest pace in over five years. After bond yields rose, risk appetite was squeezed simultaneously. Some interpret this as "strong data = interest rate expectation reset"—about $136 million of positions were wiped out within an hour, mostly longs; others remind that the previous round of short squeezes and large inflows into spot ETFs just passed, and this time it looks more like a chain liquidation triggered by high leverage meeting macro surprises, rather than spot supply and demand having completely reversed. Headlines will focus on support levels and deleveraging shifts, but liquidation volume ≠ trading path. It could also just be a normal pullback in the bond yield window; it's still uncertain whether the next window will continue liquidations or if spot buying will narrow volatility. For now, note "PMI 58.4, about $444 million long liquidations." If there are continued outflows or more aligned official statements later, this window can be better contextualized.Coinbase CEO Armstrong said in a podcast interview on September 19 that banks lend out deposits without the depositors' knowledge or consent, which is an old rule inherited from the fractional reserve system. Stablecoins regulated by the GENIUS Act and backed by sufficient reserve assets may carry less risk than bank deposits.
You deposit 100 units, the bank keeps a small portion to handle daily withdrawals, and lends out the majority to earn interest. This is actually written in the contract you sign when opening an account, but no one reads it word for word.
Banks dare to operate this way because depositors' funds are insured by the FDIC, and losses are ultimately covered by the government; stablecoins do not lend out funds and theoretically have full reserves, but stablecoins like USDC currently do not have corresponding deposit insurance. Their safety depends entirely on whether the issuer's reserves are truly sufficient and transparent enough. The risks of the two models are not on the same dimension and cannot be simply compared as which is safer.
The timing is not a coincidence either. The CLARITY Act and the banking industry are fiercely debating whether stablecoins can pay interest. Armstrong's recent continuous statements are essentially a public stance in this legislative tug-of-war. He is also one of the biggest beneficiaries of USDC, and this interest relationship should not be avoided.
My view: What he pointed out—that "depositors have little awareness of how their money is used"—is true and is a systemic blind spot worth discussing; but using this blind spot to prove that stablecoins are safer is a bit premature—the safety net designs on both sides are fundamentally different and should be considered separately. $BTC retraces to 84K: Is the rally over, or are the bulls deleveraging?
BTC briefly dipped to 83.5K, triggering market panic. However, considering macro data and on-chain structure, this looks more like a healthy leverage cleanup rather than a trend reversal.
1. Reason for the drop: Macro shock
The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.11%, PMI exceeded expectations at 58.4, combined with crude oil returning above $100. Strong economic data sparked inflation concerns, causing risk assets (US stocks → BTC → high Beta altcoins) to collectively come under pressure.
2. On-chain evidence: Leverage clearing
Open Interest (OI) plummeted: BTC dropped about 2.6%, but Binance perpetual OI crashed 10% (from $9.24B to $8.28B).
Funding rate returned to zero: Funding rate fell from 0.01% back to zero.
Conclusion: Price down, OI down, funding rate flat — a typical long liquidation cleanup. A trend decline usually comes with rising OI and persistently negative funding rates.
3. Key levels
Lifeline 84K: This is the largest chip concentration area for long-term holders (LTH). Holding here means the structure remains intact; rebound targets are first 90K-92K, then 95K-97K.
Trendline 77K: If 77K (mid-term cost support) is decisively broken, this rally can be considered truly over. $ZEC crashed sharply overnight, with leveraged long positions facing a "chain liquidation"!
ZEC plunged from a high of 1,580 to 1,420, down 10.13% in 24h, currently at 1,432. In the past 24 hours, over $120 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with $85 million in ZEC long positions liquidated, affecting more than 30,000 traders.
A chain reaction is unfolding:
① Breaking below the key 1,500 level triggered programmed stop-losses;
② Long contracts were forcibly liquidated, instantly amplifying sell pressure;
③ The privacy sector collectively declined, with DASH and XMR weakening simultaneously;
④ A liquidity vacuum emerged, suppressing rebounds due to liquidation pressure;
⑤ Sentiment shifted from "extreme greed" to panic, with insufficient spot market support.
This is not an ordinary correction; it is a leveraged stampede. Under high interest rate expectations and profit-taking escapes, contract-driven markets rise fast and fall even faster and harder. $ZEC #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
In the early hours of September 25 Beijing time, Costco is about to release its Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2026, a key window to observe the resilience of U.S. consumer spending.
From the preliminary data disclosed, Q4 net sales reached $93.9 billion, up 11.3% year-over-year; comparable sales grew 9.4%, and after excluding oil prices and exchange rate disturbances, growth still stands at 6.7%. The sales data has already materialized. Next, market attention will focus on three core indicators: total membership size, membership renewal retention rate, and overall profit margin.
Costco’s business model is essentially a membership business. Strong sales do not necessarily mean profits are realized. In an inflationary environment, whether Americans are still willing to keep paying membership fees directly reflects consumer confidence. This financial report can be used to verify whether U.S. consumption has reached a turning point of weakness.
Another major event is Micron MU’s report scheduled for the early hours of October 1.
As a core player in the AI storage sector, the market guidance is: revenue around $50 billion (with a fluctuation of ±$1 billion), Non-GAAP EPS of $31, and an estimated gross margin of 86%. The AI boom has driven up storage chip prices, but whether the high gross margin can be maintained and whether the real purchasing demand from downstream AI manufacturers can continue to convert into revenue and profit, Micron’s financial report will be a touchstone.
On one side is the retail giant representing mass consumption, on the other is the storage chip giant tied to the AI cycle. One report reflects the resilience of consumer spending, the other shows the maturity of the AI industry. The consecutive release of these two reports will bring strong expectation disturbances to the global equity and crypto markets. #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
As the market repeatedly debates the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, two heavyweight earnings reports are about to be released—Costco $COST is scheduled for the early morning of September 25, and Micron MU will report on October 1. One represents the real consumption power of American residents, and the other is a barometer for the AI storage cycle. The data from these two reports will not only impact the US tech and consumer sectors but also indirectly influence the risk appetite trends of major asset classes, including the crypto market.
First, let's look at Costco $COST.
From the pre-released preliminary sales data, Q4 net sales reached $93.9 billion, up 11.3% year-over-year, with comparable sales growth of 9.4%; excluding gasoline price disturbances and exchange rate fluctuations, organic sales still maintained a 6.7% increase. Looking solely at revenue, this report looks quite impressive, proving that US end consumption has not experienced the rapid slowdown that the market fears.
However, revenue has already been realized in advance; the real focus of this earnings report is no longer on the sales figures themselves.
Next, market attention will focus on three core indicators: total membership size, membership renewal rate, and corporate net profit margin.
Costco's business core is not the margin on goods sold but membership fees. The membership renewal rate is a thermometer for gauging American households' confidence in future income. If the renewal rate remains high, it indicates that people are willing to continue paying, confirming the logic of consumption resilience; once the renewal rate turns downward, even if short-term sales are still acceptable, it means residents are beginning to tighten long-term spending, and the confidence in consumption is weakening How to use options synthesis to create a short position? There is a strategy structure called "risk reversal," where I sell 1 BTC call option and simultaneously buy 1 BTC put option, without paying a premium, so that a market decline can protect the position's value. When I also hold the spot asset at the same time, the entire position strategy combination is called a "collar" strategy.
Advantages: The strike price of the sold option can be higher than the current price, providing greater tolerance. In the example, a loss will only definitely occur if the price exceeds 88K by the October expiration.
Disadvantages: The protection effect is slightly inferior to directly shorting the contract.
The recently constructed structure has already started to provide protection for the spot position.#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
On September 22 local time, the US and Iran held about a three-hour indirect meeting in New York with the mediation of Qatar and others. The two sides exchanged views on topics including ceasefire, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, maritime blockade, and frozen assets. Trump said the communication was productive, sparking market expectations for diplomatic easing. Coupled with expectations of improved regional supply, Brent crude briefly fell below $100, dipping to around $98 during intraday trading on September 23.
However, no substantive agreement was reached in the negotiations, and Iran did not abandon its original demands. Pezeshkian stated that Iran would not surrender to the US. Following this news, Brent oil prices rebounded to around $103. The oil price showed a pattern of falling first and then rising, indicating that the market is dynamically adjusting geopolitical risk pricing based on negotiation progress.
If the two sides can achieve substantive breakthroughs on ceasefire and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the energy risk premium is expected to further decline, thereby alleviating inflation and high interest rate pressures.
Interestingly, despite the geopolitical positive developments, BTC instead fell below $85,000. Many traders are puzzled that with the easing of the major geopolitical risk suppressing risk assets, the crypto market did not rally, and short-term selling pressure began to emerge. The geopolitical situation remains volatile, with increased fluctuations in commodities and crypto markets, and uncertainty still persists. #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
On September 22 local time, the US and Iran held about a three-hour indirect meeting in New York with the mediation of Qatar and others. The two sides exchanged views on topics including ceasefire, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, maritime blockade, and frozen assets. Trump said the communication was productive, sparking market expectations for diplomatic easing. Coupled with expectations of improved regional supply, Brent crude briefly fell below $100, dipping to around $98 during intraday trading on September 23.
However, no substantive agreement was reached in the negotiations, and Iran did not abandon its original demands. Pezeshkian stated that Iran would not surrender to the US. Following this news, Brent oil prices rebounded to around $103. The oil price showed a pattern of falling first and then rising, indicating that the market is dynamically adjusting geopolitical risk pricing based on negotiation progress.
If the two sides can achieve substantive breakthroughs on ceasefire and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the energy risk premium is expected to further decline, thereby alleviating inflation and high interest rate pressures.
Interestingly, despite the geopolitical positive developments, BTC instead fell below $85,000. Many traders are puzzled that with the easing of the major geopolitical risk suppressing risk assets, the crypto market did not rally, and short-term selling pressure began to emerge. The geopolitical situation remains volatile, with increased fluctuations in commodities and crypto markets, and uncertainty still persists.