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#Trump accepts new ethics rules, CLARITY vote approaching
Before the procedural vote on September 15
The ethics rules finally loosen
The latest text includes ethics proposals agreed by Trump
The Tillis-Gallego plan is about 80% accepted
Includes expanded enforcement powers for state attorneys general
Officials must divest significant interests in crypto issuance entities
Or place them in blind trusts
Democrats are still negotiating whether to join
Schumer has convened the core to discuss the stance
This is not the final vote
60 votes are needed to proceed to formal consideration
Republicans don't have enough seats, they need to pull in Democrats
A step forward before the regulatory framework
ETH compliance narrative often stronger than BTC
But the window narrows again within the year
So my judgment is
Don't heavily bet on the 60 votes
Wait for the September 15 result before moving funds
$ETH $BTC #CLARITY #Regulation#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
Weekly Crypto Market Review
This week's market initially rose then fell, with macro data and regulatory developments tugging back and forth, causing significant volatility. False breakouts and sharp drops alternated.
$BTC hit 81200 but was resisted and fell back, currently at 76950, with the 1-hour chart showing weakening momentum. ETF funds have been continuously reducing holdings, short-term chips exiting to observe; some long-term addresses are increasing positions against the trend. Resistance is at 79000‑79800, key support at 75800; if broken, it may trigger concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs.
$ETH touched 2695 then retraced to 2472, showing slightly stronger resilience than the broader market, with buying interest still present at low levels. ETF subscriptions and redemptions are mixed, with no panic selling observed. Resistance at 2590‑2640, support at 2415, and the KDJ death cross suggests the correction is not over.
$ZEC led gains this week, once rising to 1310 before profit-taking pushed it down to 1088. Intense large-player battles with frequent contract long and short liquidations indicate waning heat; 1025 is an important defense level.
Rotation among other sectors has accelerated, lacking a sustained main theme. Open interest across the market remains high, with on-chain major funds generally on the sidelines. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve decision and legislative progress. Operations remain cautious, focusing on key points and controlling positions while waiting for clearer trends $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC I choose to stand with the bulls. The market basically assumes a 25 basis point rate hike this time, but this expectation has long been priced in and is no longer a surprise variable.
FedWatch data shows an 86% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Before Waller's speech on August 28, the market was still evenly split on whether there would be a rate hike. During this period, $BTC only slightly dropped from 77846 to 77600, with very little price volatility.
The reason it did not weaken as expected lies in the performance of the US dollar. The logic that rate hikes suppress crypto assets depends on a stronger dollar, but the dollar index actually fell from 99.70 to 99.35, so this negative transmission chain did not take effect. The cause of this rate hike is not economic overheating but pressure from rising oil prices: Brent crude surged from $89 to $107. The market interprets this rate hike as a passive response to inflation, not the start of a new sustained tightening cycle.
Total contract open interest shrank from $8.48 billion to $8.06 billion within a week. The prior price drop from 81270 to 76569 was the market preemptively digesting this rate hike expectation.
Forecast: Within 48 hours after the decision, if $BTC holds the 76500 support, it is likely to test the 80000 level upwards.
Conditions triggering a bearish turn: Waller signals continued rate hikes in October, or the 10-year US Treasury yield stabilizes above 5% (currently 4.97%).
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC & GRAM Are Playing Different Games
$BTC remains the market’s liquidity benchmark, where the key question is whether buyers can keep defending important levels.
$GRAM is a different setup: its potential depends much more on adoption, liquidity and actual ecosystem usage than on Bitcoin’s broader market role
I’d watch BTC for market direction and GRAM for whether real demand is developing behind the token
Two assets, two very different signals
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq Anthropic IPO, is it worth looking forward to?
I think it's worth paying attention to, but that doesn't mean blindly chasing it.
There are rumors in the market that Anthropic plans to list on Nasdaq in October, with a valuation that could even reach 2 trillion dollars. However, this valuation has not been officially priced yet and still belongs to market expectations.
What really catches my attention is its growth rate.
It is actually re-pricing the entire AI industry.
What does this mean for AI concept stocks?
I think there will be two completely different impacts.
The first is valuation uplift.
If Anthropic can still be chased by the market after listing, it means funds are still willing to give AI a high valuation.
Then companies that "sell shovels" like Nvidia, Broadcom, cloud computing, data centers, and power infrastructure will continue to benefit.
The second is actually more worth being cautious about:
If the valuation is too high, it must be proven by performance.
The rumored market valuation of Anthropic is already approaching 2 trillion dollars, and previously the market supported the high valuation with its future revenue expectations. Reuters previously reported that Anthropic's revenue forecast for 2028 is about 190 to 200 billion dollars.
I want to see how many times valuation the market is willing to give AI after it goes public.
That is the truly important point.
After all, the next round of AI market may not be about whose story is told best, but about who can really deliver revenue, profit, and cash flow.
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO 八万下方横了这么久，不是没人想动，是两边都在等周三凌晨那一下。
87%的加息概率早就被吃进价格，真正没定价的是点阵图和会后那几句表态。
对手盘的角度看，76000到75500这个区间堆了不少止损和杠杆，先插一针再拉，比直接涨更省力。
但要是点阵图显示年内还得加、高利率继续拖，75500破了就是72000到73000，山寨跌起来不会客气。
我不站方向，只认一件事：加息本身已经不重要了，重要的是表态有没有松口。
你们这周打算怎么接，等落地还是提前埋？
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 #美债收益率逼近5%，回购难缓长期压力 $BTC $XAU $GOLD Review
Tip: Gold price is operating at the zero axis position of the 30-minute MACD, not suitable for further decline, with a short-term key defense at 4330; a valid break below will break the daily structure and lead to a deeper drop.
Actual trend: On Monday, the opening price surged to a high of 4356 before falling back, and the current price is exactly at the key support of 4330.
Next focus: Whether 4330 can effectively stop the decline and start a rebound.
Intraday resistance remains at 4355:
✅ Breakthrough and hold → successful bottom formation at the 1-hour level
❌ Failure to break through → the market remains weak
The daily-level rebound structure is still intact, so do not rush to conclusions. Give gold a little more patience, wait for the bottom formation to complete and the indicators to cross upward.ETH’s Next Move Needs More Than Momentum
$ETH has the infrastructure, liquidity and developer activity to remain central to the crypto economy. The bigger question is whether that strength continues translating into sustainable demand.
I’m paying attention to capital flows, network usage and activity across Ethereum’s ecosystem.
If those metrics keep improving while price remains relatively quiet, the market may be underestimating what is developing underneath.
That’s the setup worth trackin$GAS Switched to the background and replied to a message, then came back, and it had already finished the job.
While everyone else was still watching, GAS lacked support, the rebound was weak, and the resistance above was strong. I judged it as a short from the high point and placed the short order first.
Shorted from 1.3481 to 1.3273, +30.7%, really satisfying, can treat myself to a good meal. The premise of compounding is staying alive; the shortcut to getting rich quick often leads to zero.
First close 80%, protect 20% at cost price, let the profit run if it continues to drop, and don’t give back the profit if it rebounds. The money earned is the realization of your understanding; the money lost is the flaw in your understanding.
Don’t rush to chase; now is not the time to rush. Chasing highs easily gets you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round and act when the next signal comes. There are still opportunities.
$ADA $XRP #This week's FOMC announcement: Will the rate hike land?
That big bearish candle on non-farm payroll night hit like a sucker punch, leaving the market dazed. Two days later, everyone is still rubbing their eyes—everything looks like a rebound, but they're afraid to reach out and get bitten.
$BTC is now at 76,480. After the data, it first dropped to 74,120, then pulled back to 78,950, forming a classic "door" pattern. On the 1-hour chart, it has climbed back above MA5/MA10, but MA30 and the upper Bollinger band at 79,200 are pressing down hard. MACD is stuck as a line below the zero axis, and volume has shrunk as if strangled.
$ETH is currently at 2,488, showing more resilience than BTC. Moving averages are flattening, MACD's green bars are shortening, hinting at a quiet capital inflow. On data night, it dipped but didn't break the previous low, then reversed to touch 2,610, showing a more composed rhythm than BTC.
$ZEC is at 1,124, oscillating between 1,080 and 1,190. The moving averages are twisted like a braid, and KDJ is stuck at 52, neither up nor down. The afterglow of the previous violent surge has completely cooled off.
The current contradiction is intense: rate cut expectations pushed to next year, the dollar index surged to 107, and ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive days—all pressure points. Yet after the non-farm spike, not only did the market not crash, $BTC even touched back to 79,000, and $ETH followed with a rebound.
In this market, don't bet on direction. The post-data spike cures all doubts, with two rounds of long and short blowouts—whoever is impatient pays the tuition. You can't earn much working all day; if you don't understand, just rest and wait for it to choose its own direction. 美国国债10年期收益率逼近5%的关键心理关口。 截至9月11日，10年期美债收益率收于约4.96%，盘中一度触及4.974%，为2023年10月以来最高水平；30年期收益率站上5.35%，刷新2007年以来纪录；对货币政策更敏感的2年期收益率升至约4.63%。自6月下旬以来，债券收益率一路攀升，10年期收益率较有效联邦基金利率高出约115个基点，较大的期限利差反映出市场对长期通胀、财政赤字与债务可持续性的深层担忧。 三重推力同步引爆债市抛售。 其一，油价飙升是核心导火索——美伊海上冲突持续升级，布伦特原油结算价单日暴涨6.3%至每桶107.63美元，加剧了通胀预期。其二，8月PPI同比升至5.4%，高于上月4.7%，超出华尔街预期。其三，特朗普在中期选举集会上承诺向所有美国成年人发放5000美元支票，据测算总成本约1.2万亿至1.3万亿美元，远超关税收入规模，进一步加剧了债务与通胀忧虑。 财政部回购操作“雷声大雨点小”，反而加剧市场不安。 美国财政部周四实际回购51.87亿美元的10年至20年期国债，低于此前宣布的60亿美元上限，对10年至20年期国债而言，回购未满上限更是史无前例。$CP I was about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked my balance and decided against it; the market is always right 😮💨
When the market was just crashing in the morning session, CP's rebound looked somewhat promising. But the more I watched the order book, the more something felt off—every upward push lacked momentum, a classic sign of insufficient support. This kind of rebound looks lively but actually has no one backing it. The market keeps teaching you lessons, but many choose to pretend they're asleep.
I casually placed a short order at 0.04261, and some said I was too late. I didn’t bother arguing, just waited for the outcome. Just now, the price plunged directly to 0.01290, and my position's profit rate hit +1394.03%. The earlier hesitation was real, but the result is truly sweet. Feeling good, brothers, this rhythm was spot on, better than anything else 😎
I’m taking profits on 80% of my position now, leaving 20% with a stop loss at breakeven. Whether it rebounds or continues to drift down, I won’t be upset. The premise of compounding is survival; shortcuts to getting rich often lead to zero. Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding. Don’t chase now; chasing at lows is risky. I’ll wait for the next new signal.
$XRP $BNB Morning strategy perfectly took profit! Follow-up market layout ideas for Bitcoin
Poem: With a broad vision, observe the market; only after pocketing the gains do you know the strategy is true
The idea given for Bitcoin this morning has already been realized, successfully taking profit and reaping the rewards!
After closing the position, many brothers asked if there are still opportunities to enter later and how to operate the market next.
Let me directly tell everyone the key points and explain the rhythm of the upcoming market clearly, laying out the critical highs and lows once and for all.
The overall big direction is still upward. This slight pullback now is just a shakeout before the rise, not a market reversal or weakening, so no need to be overly bearish.
【Short-term core support】
2495~2505, today's key support range.
The logic is simple: as long as this range is not broken downward, the bullish trend remains. When the price pulls back to this level, it's a low-buy entry opportunity, so don't always worry about missing out.
$ETH
【Intraday upper resistance target】
Wait for the market to stabilize and start rebounding; the first target is 2580.
Focus on the 2450 level; if the market holds and breaks through here, you can follow the trend toward the 2580 resistance level and add long positions.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
✅Overall operation idea: buy on dips at support, do not short if support holds, follow the bullish direction, and add positions after effective breakouts!BTC Is Testing the Strength Beneath the Price
$BTC can look quiet while important positioning is happening underneath.
The signal I care about is how quickly buyers step in when price pulls back. Strong absorption of selling pressure suggests demand is still present, while repeated failures at support would tell a different story.
For me, reaction matters more than direction.
I’d track liquidity and volume around key levels before deciding whether the next move has real strength$PONS
PONS's move today feels pretty comfortable.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, PONS has rallied from around 0.495 to above 0.56, showing a relatively strong short-term trend. Currently, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all trending upwards, and the price remains above these moving averages, indicating that bulls still have the upper hand.
I personally made two long trades on PONS: one entered at 0.5255 and exited at 0.5635, gaining +71.54%; the other entered at 0.5276 and exited at 0.5521, gaining +45.40%. Together, these two trades netted about 964U.
The strategy behind these trades was simple: I saw support around 0.52–0.53, so I bought low and took profits in batches as the price rose. Now that the price has reached near the previous high of 0.5641, I think it's wise to be cautious and not chase the price just because it’s rising.
Next, I’m focusing on two key levels:
First, whether 0.5641 can be broken with volume. If it breaks and holds above, there’s potential for a further short-term rally towards 0.58–0.60.
Second, if it fails to break through, watch the 0.55 and 0.54 levels. If the price can hold after a pullback there, I believe there’s still a chance for strength to continue.
Currently, my view remains bullish but I won’t chase highs; I’ll wait for a pullback or a confirmed breakout. After all, the price has already risen from around 0.52, and chasing with 10x leverage now doesn’t offer as favorable a risk-reward ratio as before.
I’ll take profits first and wait for the next opportunity. I think PONS’s move isn’t over yet, but the higher it goes, the more important it is to watch for profit-taking.⚡ INJ +13% FOR THE WEEK. I'M ALREADY LONG FROM $6.10
INJ broke through $6.10–6.12 and after the retest I opened a Long from $6.10. 🐳 Whales 1.4:1 Long, top traders 1.16, funding +0.0025%. OI down 20% for the month.
Targets: $6.38 → $6.50 → $6.92
Stop: $5.78
Fed week — main risk. Now watching if $6.10 will hold as support. 👀BTC and ETH both fell during the day; one was dragged down by the overall market, the other was catching up on a correction—don't confuse the two.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
Both turned red, but one is a steady anchor pressed down by risk sentiment, the other is a strong coin correcting after a rally—their subsequent movements are completely different.
#霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟
In the Middle East's aggressive rate hike sell-off, BTC is at 76,700, down about 0.8%, ETH at 2,478, down about 1.8%. Both look red, but their nature is different.
$BTC is mainly dragged down by market sentiment; its own trading range hasn't broken and the drop is restrained, so it's "dragged down." $ETH had risen a lot earlier and is now catching up on a correction over the past two days, with a drop clearly larger than $BTC, so it's "catching up on a correction." Don't rush to buy before the correction is complete. One depends on external market conditions, the other depends on whether it has fully corrected itself.
Next, when risk eases, the dragged-down BTC will recover first; the correcting ETH needs to stabilize again between 2,450 and 2,500 to count; if it continues to fall, the correcting $ETH will be weaker in the short term. The dragged-down one follows the market, the correcting one depends on full correction—don't bottom-fish halfway through the correction.$ETH The weekly chart of Ethereum seems to be replicating the trend from April to September last year. If it continues to rise like this, it makes me a bit uneasy and hesitant to keep shorting it.
Comparing to April last year, it was also a round of decline to a low point, followed by a big bullish candle that pushed the price to around 2500 where it oscillated. Currently, the MACD is forming a golden cross below the zero line, and the EMA 5, 10, and 21 moving averages have all turned upwards, showing an upward trend. The difference this time is that the amplitude is wider and the bottoming period is longer.
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is approaching. If this time the rate cut surprises all of us with a 25 basis point reduction,
would it directly end this late-stage bear market and successfully replicate last year's bull market for a big rally?
But that’s a hopeful thought. A rate cut is now impossible. Inflation in the US is clearly higher than before, and US nonfarm payroll and CPI data are all higher than expected. The probability of a rate hike is as high as 85%, and it’s basically certain, just waiting for the Fed’s announcement.
My position plan: I am still holding my short positions on Ethereum and do not plan to open any new positions before the Fed’s rate decision.
$ETH
The above is just my personal market insight and does not constitute any trading advice.What’s next for the "Crypto Clarity Act"?
┈➤ Pressure from the Democrats is favorable to the "Crypto Clarity Act"
On Sunday night, the Democratic caucus held an emergency meeting to discuss the "Crypto Clarity Act."
This is a good sign because if it doesn’t pass, it would be unfavorable for the Democrats in the midterm elections.
Crypto voters and related stakeholders might then choose to support Republican lawmakers.
Therefore, some Democratic lawmakers might lean toward supporting the "Crypto Clarity Act."
┈➤ But time is still extremely tight
The fastest timeline is a preliminary vote on the 15th, a formal vote on the 16th, and a House vote on the 17th.
Although the probability on Polymarket has risen to 32%, the chance of passing in such a short time may still be low.
┈➤ Final thoughts
My judgment is that before September 17, the "Crypto Clarity Act" may not pass, but it could pass before the midterm elections.
I believe there is a possibility of a reversal:
Possibility one: Increased support from Democrats leads to a preliminary vote passing on September 15.
Possibility two: After discussions in the Senate, it passes in a subsequent vote. Trump might request the House to wait a couple of days or call back representatives from various states to vote.
I have mostly exited my position after a wave of trading, holding a small position to bet on a reversal. (Don’t laugh at the mini position; family pressures are heavy, plus premenstrual syndrome, so large positions can lead to irrational actions.)
The core logic behind expecting a reversal is that during the midterm election phase, the two parties compete, and crypto benefits.Whether the clarity act passes or not, it's not that important.
If it's a bull market, at most it's just a spark; simply relying on this act to drive a major bull market in the crypto space is probably just wishful thinking.
A major bull market in crypto must be driven by significant underlying crypto-native innovations, such as the ICOs in 2017, DeFi, NFTs, GameFi in 2021, and inscriptions in 2023, although inscriptions are somewhat lacking.
Without these fundamental project innovations, what’s the point of expecting a law to make a difference? Even in a bear market, passing the act might not boost prices and could even lead to a drop.
Right now, I’m not paying attention to this clarity act at all; what I care about is whether there are still innovations in the crypto space—that’s the key point.#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
Core narrative: The market is seriously pricing in the possibility of the first interest rate hike since 2023 for the first time, with risk assets reacting in advance. BTC leads the decline, ETH follows defensively, and SOL repeatedly loses and regains key integer levels. Overall, it is in a risk-off phase ahead of macro events, with rebounds lacking follow-through.
BTC failed to hold after falling below 77,000, with the lower edge of the range under continuous pressure. Funding signals are bearish: although net inflows to exchanges have slowed, whale distribution traces remain, and ETFs have seen net outflows of about $450 million over three consecutive days.
Key structure: Approximately 539,000 long-held chips are accumulated in the 77,100–80,200 range, forming a supply wall above. The current price is below the wall; reclaiming 77,000 can only be seen as halting the decline, not an effective breakout.
· Support: 75,000–76,000; breaking 76,000 confirms a breakdown of the lower range edge
· Resistance: 77,800–78,300
ETH follows BTC defensively, with short-term structure weakening. This is not the time to enter; observe the strength of support at 2,450. If it breaks 2,360, rotation logic pauses.
· Support: 2,450–2,425, 2,360–2,350
· Resistance: 2,508–2,524, 2,544–2,564
Summary in one sentence: As the macro window approaches, the market shifts from "front-running rate cuts" to "pricing in rate hikes," with the three major crypto assets simultaneously de-risking $BTC $ETH $ZEC 前两天，很多老妖币大暴涨。 今天，很多妖币都原形毕露了，譬如说现在跌幅榜第一的$LAB 。 我记得前两天它是涨幅榜第一，今天就已经是跌幅榜第一了。 —————————————————— 我昨天写了文章，我说$LAB 暂时还不能去抄底。 目前来看，我昨天的判断没有错，确确实实不能抄底。 那问题来了，现在可以去抄底吗？ 我认为仍旧不是一个抄底的好时机。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 我们可以发现，在今天下跌过程中，它的合约多空比一直在上升，但是合约持仓量是先上升后下降。 这说明，目前过了空头止盈的阶段，已经有一批多头进去抄底了。 但是，这并不意味着现在可以做多。 我们看长一点时间的数据。 我们可以发现，它目前的合约多空比还没有回到之前价格开始反弹的位置。 也就是说，现在虽然多头在抄底，但还没有到能让它逆转趋势的地步。 —————————————————— 我们再看一下它的K线。 可以发现，在上一次下跌中，它是有过好几次插针的，一直到插不动的时候才开始反弹。 目前，它还没有说跌到插不动的位置。 —————————————————— 我认为，现在并不适合抄底，Why has the oil price been rising more fiercely recently?
The core of this round of oil price increase is actually two words:
Supply concerns
Recently, Brent crude oil has climbed back above $100, even reaching above $107 at one point. The most direct reason behind this is the ongoing deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, with new supply and transportation risks emerging in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Saudi energy facilities.
Many people think that rising oil prices must be due to improved global demand.
This time, it's exactly the opposite.
What the market is really worried about is:
The oil is still there, but can it be transported smoothly?
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global energy transportation channel. Once shipping is obstructed, even if actual production cuts have not fully occurred, traders will factor the "risk of supply disruption" into the oil price in advance.
So this round of oil price increase is actually trading on one thing:
What's more troublesome is that if oil prices remain above $100 for a long time, the impact is not just on gas stations.
Crude oil rising → energy costs rising → inflationary pressure returns → the Federal Reserve finds it harder to cut rates or may even continue to lean hawkish → U.S. Treasury yields rise → the U.S. dollar strengthens → stocks, gold, Crypto, and other risk assets come under pressure.
Therefore, I think what we really need to watch next is not:
Whether oil prices can continue to rise
But rather:
When the Middle East supply risk will start to ease.
As long as transportation channels are restored and geopolitical risks decline, this part of the risk premium in oil prices could quickly disappear.
But if the situation continues to escalate, then $100 may no longer be a resistance level but just a new starting point.#布油重返100美元，特朗普称选后将下跌 Data from September 14 shows that BTC price rose slightly by about 0.8% in the past 24 hours, but selling pressure in the derivatives market has significantly increased. The price resilience has not been confirmed by strong buying, indicating a divergence in the market.
The BTC Derivatives Pressure Index fell from -25.36 to -60.80 over 24 hours and has remained in negative territory since September 6. This index combines active buy and sell pressure, changes in BTC-denominated open interest, and funding rates. Currently, it indicates sellers dominate, but it cannot distinguish whether this is due to new short positions opening or long positions closing.
Meanwhile, Coinbase has consistently traded at a discount compared to Binance, with the latest premium index at -0.0455% and the 48-hour average at -0.0323%, reflecting weaker buying demand in the U.S. market.
The market provides two signals to watch: if the Derivatives Pressure Index returns above 0 and Coinbase’s 48-hour average premium turns positive, it would indicate an improved market environment; if negative pressure continues to build, BTC still faces the risk of further decline.
A slight price increase does not equal a trend reversal. The indicators of derivatives and spot premiums are worth continuous monitoring. How do you view the current market divergence? Do you think BTC will break upward next or pull back again? It seems there's no need to worry about the AI threat theory causing a stock market crash tonight. Representing the U.S. government, Trump has officially rejected the calls from the companies behind Claude, ChatGPT, and Grok to slow down the development of cutting-edge AI.
The reason behind this, as previously speculated, is the concern that slowing down would hand the advantage to China, allowing them to overtake on the curve.
Especially now, with intense all-around competition between China and the U.S. in chips, AI, new energy, and other fields, no politician wants to bear the cost for this.
In fact, those calling for a slowdown are mainly the top few companies; the second tier, like Meta's Muse, did not speak out last weekend, and it is highly likely that a fierce arms race will continue.
Once the train of the era starts moving, no one can stop it. Long and Short Crowding List
$SNDK Current rate is opposite to the total settled rate in the past 24 hours: current rate +0.0385%, at the 96th percentile among the latest 100 single settlement samples; total of 3 settled rates in the past 24 hours -0.036%; settled at the current rate, funding fees are paid by longs to shorts, the payment relationship is opposite to that reflected by the cumulative rate in the past 24 hours; price increased by 0.13%, position amount changed by +2.59%.
$KORU Current rate is opposite to the total settled rate in the past 24 hours: current rate +0.0152%, at the 90th percentile among the latest 100 single settlement samples; total of 3 settled rates in the past 24 hours -0.120%; settled at the current rate, funding fees are paid by longs to shorts, the payment relationship is opposite to that reflected by the cumulative rate in the past 24 hours; price dropped by 0.098%, position amount changed by +0.28%. Price decline coexists with longs paying fees, longs face both price weakness and funding cost.
$LAB Price weakens, longs still bear funding cost: current rate +0.0124%, at the 55th percentile among the latest 100 single settlement samples; total of 6 settled rates in the past 24 hours +0.057%; price dropped by 0.98%, position amount changed by -0.20%.Watching the market on Monday, first looking at the macro picture, then the candlesticks. Last week, the Dow dropped 1.6%, the Nasdaq fell 0.7%, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched 4.97%, and the FOMC rate hike probability was 86%, basically priced in by the market. Crypto followed risk assets with reduced volume; the table is quiet, but often opportunities hide in the quiet.
$BTC is sideways around 77,200, with 76,600 as short-term support and 77,700 as resistance. ETFs saw a net outflow of 462 million last week. Jiang Zhuoer said it might first sweep above the 76,000 liquidation zone before pulling back. I placed a small order at 76,600 but didn’t go heavy; this level feels more like a halfway point than a clear opportunity.
$ETH at 2,510 has rebounded 55% from the June low. The 2,350-2,400 range is key support for this rally; if it can’t hold above 2,550, it will remain in consolidation. No position, waiting for direction.
$DOGE at 0.0838 broke below the 20-day moving average, MACD weakening. 0.08 is the last line of defense; breaking that would be structurally bad. I’m holding a small amount without moving it; Musk hasn’t tweeted, and the hype is definitely fading.
If the market continues to digest the rate hike at today’s open, BTC will likely test 76,600 again. If it breaks, expect lower; if not, it will keep grinding. My position is light, waiting to see the reaction at open.
Are you chasing or waiting for a pullback?
՞˶•⩊•˶՞ಣ$BTC is hovering at 77800, and I couldn't resist opening a small short 👊
BTC is just grinding within a 0.95% gain today, with the 24-hour high-low difference less than $1500, and the Bollinger Bands narrowing. RSI6 is stuck around 66, neither up nor down, and the MACD fast and slow lines are glued together—this market is putting people to sleep.
It just touched 77869 above and then fell back, clearly facing resistance. I really couldn't hold back, so I opened a small short position around 77800, betting it won't break through and will pull back. With such small volatility, big money is too lazy to move; it's purely a sideways battle of patience.
If it breaks through 78000 with volume, I'll admit defeat on this trade.
Brothers, in this dead fish market, are you staying flat or like me, itching to open a position? Let's chat in the comments.🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 $TRUMP dropped from 2.338 to 1.912 in four days, and it's spent the last three going nowhere. Bouncing around 1.95 to 2.01 on shrinking volume.
That flat stretch is the tell. After a drop like that, real buyers show up fast or they don't show up at all. Here it's just chop, which usually means late holders slowly giving up.
2.10 is the ceiling now. Under 1.912 there's nothing until the next leg lower.
Meme season done, or just resting?
#TRUMPSellPressure Seven coins' trading volume surged 185%, BTC and ETH prices barely moved
From 14:00 to 15:00, the combined trading volume of seven high-liquidity coin samples rose from 16,672,100 to 47,526,700 USDT, an increase of 185.07%, yet only three closed higher.
BTC trading volume expanded to 3.06 times, closing down 0.024%; ETH expanded to 2.76 times, closing down 0.074%. Meanwhile, open interest increased by 0.04% and 0.57% respectively. Both volume and leverage rose simultaneously, but prices remained steady; for now, observe absorption with increased volume.
Upside confirmation: BTC closes above 77,893.8, ETH closes above 2,527.0; the current neutral judgment becomes invalid if BTC closes below 77,378.0 or ETH closes below 2,508.09. With this volume-based sideways movement, which data would you use to confirm the absorption direction?
#BTC #ETH #MainstreamCoins #TradingObservationA slight rise, but the short position is still floating profitably for now
No major fluctuations
Probably have to wait for the FOMC decision before the market gives a clear direction
$ETH short position average price is 2538, current price around 2518, floating profit is nearly 1000U. The short-term rebound shows no obvious volume increase, 2525–2540 remains a resistance zone, currently only a weak recovery.
This week's FOMC is exactly the answer to this sideways movement. Mainstream coins are trading not just on a single rate hike, but also on the dot plot and subsequent interest rate path; a hawkish stance will push up the dollar and real interest rates, suppressing $BTC and ETH, while a dovish tone will allow risk appetite to continue recovering.
BTC has returned above 77,000, but there is still resistance near 78,000. I tend to view this rise as a position adjustment before the news.
$ZEC rebound is stronger; high volatility coins tend to amplify sentiment earlier but cannot yet replace mainstream coins in confirming direction.
This short position has floating profit as a buffer, so the small intraday rebound does not disrupt my rhythm for now. After the FOMC decision, mainstream coins will be repriced around new interest rate expectations; the cost at 2538 still holds an advantage, and I want to keep this half position until volatility truly breaks out.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO Bitcoin price held pressure near $77,000, but technical indicators have not yet given a "buy-side strengthening" confirmation signal ⚠️
According to CryptoQuant certified analyst Axel Adler Jr.:
BTC rose slightly by 0.4% in the past 24 hours, fluctuating near $77,000, but two key indicators have not yet improved.
Derivatives pressure index continues to weaken:
The index dropped further from -25.36 to -60.80, remaining below the zero line since September 6. After factoring in order book pressure, BTC-denominated open interest changes, and funding rates, it shows seller dominance.
However, the analyst also pointed out that it is currently unclear whether this is due to an increase in short positions or long positions closing out, which have different implications.
The institution's judgment:
Maintain caution in the short term; although the price has held pressure, buying demand has not yet prevailed.
Conditions for confirmation of improvement:
Derivatives index stabilizes back above the zero line.
The main risk is that if negative pressure continues, the price may fall again.
This data reminds us that the "apparently stable" price of $77,000 actually has an unhealthy underlying structure. Derivatives are seller-dominated, and spot demand in the US is also weak. Combined with Jiang Zhuoer’s liquidation zone analysis at 76k mentioned yesterday and the upcoming Federal Reserve decision tonight, these two technical indicators may become important auxiliary signals to judge whether the rebound is sustainable.
$BTC ZEC has dropped from 1298, and on Monday it bounced back from 1036.
On the 9th, it touched 1298. On the 13th, the lowest was 1073, closing at 1088. Today it opened at 1087, reached a high of 1160, a low of 1036, and the current price is about 1148. The volume ratio is higher than the weekend.
The range 1160-1220 above has become the immediate resistance. If it breaks below 1036 again, it is likely to first see 1004.
In the short term, watch if it can hold around 1148. If it can't hold, treat it as continuing to digest at a high level; don't chase at the current price. For those already holding, watch if 1036 can hold as support; if it can't, consider reducing your position. $ZEC Why has the market been so exhausting these past two days? To put it simply, two words: capital withdrawal.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of nearly $450 million over three days, with $282.6 million running out on September 10 alone, the harshest day of the week. ARKB alone contributed $250 million of the outflow. What's more interesting is that the largest outflow happened the day before the CPI release, not on the day itself—institutions smelled it early and fled in advance to hedge, giving you no time to react.
Core CPI surged 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 70% to nearly 90%, the first rate hike in three years is "just waiting for the official announcement." With rates rising, the first to be cut are high-beta, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Institutions aren't liquidating entirely; they're reallocating—Ethereum ETFs have had net inflows for 20 consecutive trading days, money is moving within crypto.
BTC is grinding back and forth between 77,000 and 78,000 with extremely low volatility, altcoins are following Bitcoin’s lead, and independent rallies are almost nonexistent. This kind of market is typical—neither up nor down, no rise or fall, just grinding your patience and hands.
Now, let me talk about my UNI trade last night.
Honestly, this trade was really well executed. Entry point was precise, stop loss was small, and the logic was clear. When I had a floating profit of over two points, I knew I should exit, but I didn’t. I thought, "Wait a bit longer, what if it doubles?" The stop loss was moved to breakeven, and when I checked in the morning, it was hit exactly. No profit, no loss.
UNI surged to an eight-month high of 6.37 in early September, RSI shot above 72, a clear overbought signal, MACD histogram returned to zero, momentum had long faded. The price was high but buying pressure was exhausted; in this structure, bulls are licking their wounds. I saw these signals but selectively ignored them—because of greed.
Good entry, small stop loss, it could have been a full exit, but greed dragged me to breakeven. Not losing is already lucky.
This trade taught me one thing: in a weak, choppy market, the biggest risk is making money but not exiting. The market itself doesn’t give you much room to play; if there’s profit, you have to take it. Don’t apply trending market thinking to a choppy market.
$BTC $UNI
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
#OKX百万规划师 Single-day outflow of $283 million, $BTC institutional buying suddenly cools down
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
The US BTC spot ETF has experienced net outflows for four consecutive trading days starting from September 8. The total for the first three days is close to $450 million, and including September 11, the cumulative amount is about $463 million. The most intense was on September 10, with a single-day outflow of approximately $283 million.
Wow, the ETF just had a clear inflow wave earlier, but the capital sentiment has indeed turned quite quickly.
Moreover, this time it’s not just one fund dragging behind. Statistics show that in this round of outflows, ARK 21Shares’ ARKB had the largest scale, while Grayscale GBTC, BlackRock IBIT, and Fidelity FBTC also experienced varying degrees of capital outflows.
ETF funds naturally fluctuate with macro expectations and risk appetite, and this coincides with FOMC week, with oil prices, inflation, and interest rate expectations all disturbing the market. It’s normal for some funds to reduce risk exposure in advance.
What’s really worth watching is the following days.
If BTC prices continue to weaken and ETF net outflows continue to expand, it indicates that institutions currently lack the willingness to buy in. But if funds quickly turn positive again after the FOMC event, this $463 million looks more like a pre-event risk hedge rather than a fundamental change in institutional long-term logic toward BTC.
What BTC really lacks now is a renewed continuous large net inflow from ETFs. Cryptocurrency took a concentrated dive at 6 a.m. this morning. Is it a rebound or a continued drop now?
My current judgment: oversold rebound
Why do I temporarily lean towards a rebound?
Because this morning's plunge has already cleared some leverage, and BTC has now bounced back from $76,439 to around $77,680, indicating that there is indeed capital support at the low level.
But I will not chase longs here. The truly strong buy signals are:
$BTC → reclaiming above $78,500
$ETH → reclaiming above $2,600
$ZEC → reclaiming above $1,200
Along with increased volume, I would define this morning's dive as: "leverage washout + bear trap + secondary launch."
If BTC rebounds to $78K–78.5K but clearly meets resistance with volume expansion, then falls below $76,400 again, be very cautious. Because this pattern could turn into:
First crash → technical rebound → trapped longs selling to break even → second plunge.
At that time, $74.5K–75K will become the next target zone.
The current macro environment remains tight, and the market has been very sensitive to interest rates and risk assets recently. BTC has been repeatedly battling around the $78K–80K range.
So my trading plan today is: don’t try to guess the bottom, wait for BTC to confirm above $78.5K; if it breaks below $76.4K, prepare for a second plunge.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $SOL's elasticity remains prominent, with its price fluctuations more pronounced than the broader market. Its active ecosystem is an advantage, and high volatility is also a characteristic. Recently, when market sentiment weakened, its retracement speed and magnitude were relatively fast, reminding us once again of the risks of highly elastic assets during downturns.
I maintain a cautious attitude towards it; small positions can participate, but I won't heavily buy the dip during declines. When seeing rapid drops, I remind myself not to panic, and during rebounds, not to chase highs lightly—sticking to my own pace is safer. The public chain sector is highly competitive, and short-term gains are often driven more by sentiment and capital; fundamental changes require longer-term validation.
For assets like SOL, position management is especially important. High elasticity means both returns and risks are amplified, and heavy positions can easily cause one to lose rhythm amid volatility. I prefer to keep it in an observation and light probing position rather than as a core heavy holding. Maintaining clear awareness and stable discipline is more important than trying to predict every fluctuation.
When market sentiment is good, SOL easily attracts hot money; when sentiment weakens, selling pressure becomes more obvious. This characteristic means it is not suitable to be treated with a "hold to the death" approach but requires more flexible positioning and clearer risk control. Operationally, I will decide whether to make slight adjustments based on the overall market rhythm rather than making large moves targeting SOL alone. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #星球日报 In other words, 77,000 is not the "bottom"; it is a battlefield where both bulls and bears have yet to concede.
Finally, let's address something many are reluctant to face.
On-chain data shows that unrealized profits of short-term whale holders reached a record $9.07 billion on September 4, then fell back to $7.51 billion.
What does this mean? There is a large amount of chips in an extremely profitable state in this market. Once the price rises above 82,000 again, more profit-taking will occur than in May this year. The pressure in the 82,000 to 83,000 range is not psychological resistance; it is real profit-taking selling pressure accumulated.
The SOPR on-chain profit and loss indicator has stayed above the breakeven line for three consecutive weeks since August 19, marking the longest record since 2026. But there is a hidden risk: while the market continues to warm up, trading volume remains absent, creating a clear gap between on-chain profit structure and actual market buying.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 A blockchain announced its shutdown, but the shorts got liquidated instead!
The most ironic scene played out yesterday: a project officially announced its chain would shut down, and the bears thought they had a sure win, but they got wiped out by a spike.
$LSK announced last month that its chain would shut down by the end of October, shifting its business to enterprise financial stablecoin payments. This news looked like an obituary, so short sellers flooded in. But on Sunday, that spike shot straight from the bottom to above $2, surging over nine times in a few hours, then dropping back by more than half.
The ones truly wiped out were the shorts—over $30 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated, while the longs only lost about $7 million. The price was pushed to that level not because someone was genuinely bullish with real money, but because the shorts’ stop-loss orders kept triggering one after another, turning into buy orders.
There’s still an unresolved variable: the proposal to burn 100 million tokens hasn’t been voted on by holders yet. Until the vote is complete, the story isn’t over.
Also, a reminder: holdings on the old chain must be unlocked and transferred before shutdown. The whole process takes about ten days, so those who delay will get stuck outside. The settlement window is fixed and can’t be rushed.
This kind of spike isn’t market movement; it’s liquidation. After liquidation finishes, what remains is the true price. I won’t catch the knife at the spike’s tip.Uniswap StablePair: USDC is matched, but you can't create the pool
On September 10, Uniswap Labs launched the StablePair Hook on the Ethereum mainnet, initially with only two pools: USDC/USDG and USDC/USDT.
The fee rate is no longer fixed: when the price stays within a narrow band, a fixed buy-sell spread is applied; once it drifts out of the band, the fee for pushing the pool further out is 0, and arbitrageurs pull the price back via a Dutch auction, with fees decreasing block by block, leaving the spread to LPs. The official figure: in Q2 this year, stablecoin-to-stablecoin trading volume was about $43.4 billion.
The real catch is that the key to creating pools is not in your hands. The StablePair's initialize function is locked in Labs' Safe, so you can't create the same kind of pool yourself and add tokens; for large stablecoin swaps, Curve's curve often offers better slippage. Don't mistake this for "tonight stablecoin pairs completely crushing Curve."$OP I just placed an order, the rest is all market performance.
While everyone was still watching, OP's sell pressure was strong, trading volume was low, and the high position was clearly under pressure. I directly shorted at 0.11071. I didn't shout too loudly, just hinted that the rebound is an opportunity to short, don't get carried away chasing longs, wait for confirmation that there's no support before acting.
Then it dropped all the way to 0.09586, +670.67% floating profit realized, the big gain was worth the wait. The short position gave the answer, timing was right, this profit feels good, those on board should be waking up smiling.
First close 80%, pocket the main part, move the stop loss of the remaining 20% to the cost price, let the profit run if it continues to drop, and don't give back profits on a rebound. Don't let profits become uncomfortable.
The market specializes in correcting all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. Being out of position is not a sin, opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
There are still opportunities, don't rush, those who haven't gotten on board shouldn't chase, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and move when the next signal comes out.
$BTC $SNDK [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, what's the latest trouble in Hormuz?
Pharaoh says straight up, another ship got bombed, the talks are postponed again, and oil prices are taking off once more.
On September 13, a ship in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unidentified flying object; Iran confirmed 1 dead and 3 injured. The UK Maritime Trade Operations office only said, "Under investigation," and captains probably need to pray at a temple before setting sail after hearing this.
Even more absurd, the Iran-Gulf states talks originally scheduled for Monday have been postponed indefinitely. Oman’s Foreign Minister gave the reason as "to reach consensus," which in plain language means — the arguments aren’t over yet, so no meeting for now.
The US Energy Secretary added fuel to the fire, telling the market, "Don’t expect any results from Hormuz talks in the short term."
As a result, oil prices took off: WTI surged over 3% to $103, Brent climbed back above $100. Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, with a daily capacity of 7 million barrels, was shut down by a drone attack, effectively removing the "safety valve" that bypasses Hormuz.
For Bitcoin, the higher oil prices fly, the stronger inflation expectations become, and the tighter the threat of interest rate hikes hangs. Good trades come to those who wait; geopolitical news comes fast and goes fast, so don’t chase headlines—wait for confirmed signals before acting.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won’t lose its way! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟 Learn from history, BTC's current trend is very similar to before.
The current price is 77624, fluctuating below the 78000 integer level. I reviewed historical data and found that this kind of fluctuation below an integer level has happened several times before.
The first time was at the beginning of 2021, when BTC fluctuated between 38000-42000 for two weeks, then broke through and rose to 64000; the second time was at the end of 2023, when BTC fluctuated between 42000-44000 for a week, then broke through and rose to 48000. The pattern is: the longer the fluctuation, the bigger the move after the breakout. But the first attempt to break an integer level usually results in a false breakout.
Of course, history does not simply repeat, but it rhymes. My trading plan: if the first attempt to break 78000 is rejected, consider a light short position with a target of 76323; if the pullback to 76323 holds, try a long position with 5000U; if it breaks through and holds above 78000, decisively go long. Every trade must have a stop loss, no holding losing positions.
Recovering from a 200,000U loss, learning from history but not blindly believing it. $BTC #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO 🔥Just saw this data, and my heart sank! US diesel prices have broken through $6 per gallon for the first time in history!
A year ago it was only $3.7, a surge of over 60%+
This is not ordinary oil price fluctuation—diesel is the lifeblood of global freight, agriculture, and industrial transport.
When diesel prices rise, the costs of fertilizers, food, industrial goods, and express logistics all increase, and ultimately this will be passed on to supermarket shelves and household bills.
What’s worse is that this price hike is not due to a surge in demand, but a red alert on the supply side.
The Strait of Hormuz shipping route is hanging by a thread, and Saudi Arabia’s backup oil pipeline bypassing the strait has been preemptively shut down after successive attacks. The Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea faces constant harassment from Houthi forces, with shipping risks continuously rising. This geopolitical powder keg could ignite at any moment.
Energy inflation is making a comeback, and the Federal Reserve is now in a tough spot.
The FOMC meeting is just around the corner, and inflation is stubbornly persistent. The diesel price surge adds fuel to the fire for prices. Once energy costs spread to consumer goods and services, market expectations for rate hikes will only solidify further, squeezing the dovish space severely.
A trading reminder: before the FOMC decision lands, avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves.
Energy price transmission has a time lag, but the Fed’s policy stance is the short-term market’s decisive factor.
At this stage, watch more and act less; wait for clear signals before making moves—this is much safer than blindly opening positions.
The question is: with diesel historically breaking $6, will the Fed still dare to release dovish signals? Welcome to discuss in the comments.
#霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟 Monday starts with one priority: protect capital first, trade second. Until the FOMC gives the market a clear signal, I’d rather wait for strength to sell into than chase a late long. $BTC is hovering around $76.7K, still struggling to reclaim the $78K area after the weekend weakness. The bigger problem is the overhead supply between roughly $78K–$80.5K, while leveraged longs remain crowded. If BTC cannot reclaim that zone, another liquidity sweep toward the lower levels remains possible. $ETH iHigh buy orders still hang in midair, while low sell orders have already fallen into the basement—this round of the market exposes two of the most typical pains simultaneously: $BTC positions opened at 106300 and $ETH positions opened at 44521 remain far from their cost zones, not due to a momentary mistake but because they have been held at high levels for a long time after a significant correction. On the other side, early sellers of $SOL and $LTC have been repeatedly "educated" by localized strong rebounds. The mechanism is not complicated: macro headwinds, interest rate hike expectations, strengthening U.S. Treasury bonds, and continuous outflows from ETFs collectively suppress the recovery pace of large-cap coins; meanwhile, some altcoins are pushed higher by concentrated existing funds during mainstream consolidation, causing the market to become increasingly fragmented. This divergence further drains marginal buying power from mainstream coins, slowing the unlocking of high-level trapped positions and making the liquidity that latecomers chasing altcoins inherit more fragile. Large market cap does not equal safety; it only represents stronger consensus, and deep losses and long-term holding can still occur. The initial logic is often reasonable, but the challenge lies in timely admitting mistakes when trends reverse. Going forward, pay attention to whether ETF fund flows can stop falling and whether trading volume supports mainstream coin rebounds—this is more critical than just looking at prices. ⚠️ Risk warning: This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make independent judgments and control your positions. BR current price is 0.41115, with a significant increase in limit sell orders around 0.418 to 0.423 on the order book. Without volume expansion at this level, it's hard to break through directly. Support exists between 0.402 and 0.406, but active buying hasn't caught up yet, so treat it as a defensive zone for now.
Just took the lunch box off the bike rack and locked it in the downstairs bike shed, then refreshed the order book. Passive buy orders around 0.408 are starting to increase, but active takers remain weak.
The naked K-line shows two consecutive hourly candles with upper shadows, indicating real selling pressure above. A short-term pullback is quite likely. As long as the 0.404 to 0.407 zone holds on the pullback, you can enter long positions lightly, with a stop loss below 0.393. If it breaks below 0.393, it means this support is fake, so exit immediately.
The first take-profit target is set at 0.424, with a second target at 0.437. Don't rush to chase before breaking 0.418; wait for a breakout and then a pullback to 0.413 before adding positions. Keep your position size light; without active capital on the order book, it will just be short-term oscillation.
$BZ
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
@OKX星球 Reviewing my recent trades, I discovered a fatal problem: I always open positions in the middle range.
BTC is currently at 77624, resistance at 78000, support at 76323. My recent trades were all opened between 77000-77500, the middle range, resulting in either stop losses or small profits before exiting, never holding onto gains.
Why is this happening? Because the middle range lacks a clear direction, bulls and bears are battling, so entering there is essentially gambling. And gambling results in losses over the long term.
Looking back at when I lost 200,000 U, it was the same issue—impatience, lack of control, wanting to enter whenever I saw volatility. Now I've set a strict rule for myself: only trade at key levels, firmly avoid the middle range.
My new plan: only open positions near the 76323 support and 78000 resistance levels. If 76323 holds, try going long with 5000 U; if 78000 meets resistance, reduce positions or try shorting. Every trade must have a stop loss; no holding losing positions.
Trading is about learning to wait; good opportunities come from patience. $BTC #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO $LINK • Reserve accumulates millions of LINK over a year
• But non-circulating wallets release according to schedule, a single unlock could be 19 million / 21 million LINK
• Among them, tens of millions of LINK go directly to exchanges like Binance
So the feeling is:
On the left, small accounts shout "We're buying"
On the right, big wallets move "potential sell orders" to exchanges
Buybacks quietly happen on CoW/Uniswap, while unlocked tokens are sold with high liquidity on CEX After reviewing this data, I have one feeling: retail investors are still guessing the ups and downs, but the market has already cleared a round of leverage in advance.
From September 3 to September 11, BTC-denominated open interest contracts dropped from 321,500 to 278,200, a direct decrease of 43,300 contracts, a decline of 13.5%.
The key point is that during the same period, $BTC only fell about 5%, so this is not simply "the coin price fell, so positions naturally shrank," but a real withdrawal of actual positions.
What’s even more intense is that the overall position size is now about 20% lower than before the mid-August rally.
What does this mean?
I think the most obvious change in the market now is:
Leverage players are exiting, and the market is cooling down.
After September 11, open interest began to slightly rebound for two consecutive trading days.
So we need to be cautious going forward:
If $BTC continues to rise, shorts may re-leverage;
$ETH and $SOL might follow with increased volume;
High-volatility assets like $XRP and $DOGE could become contract gambling grounds again.
But if $BTC turns down again, the leverage just withdrawn could very well become fuel for the next round of liquidations.
Personally, I’m more focused not on "whether it will rise or fall immediately," but on:
When leverage will start to build up again.
Because real big moves often don’t start when everyone understands them.
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测