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9.14 Monday Afternoon Gold Outlook
On Monday 9.14, last week's CPI inflation data exceeded expectations, and the market's hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve remain, with the US dollar and US Treasury yields suppressing gold prices. After a previous sharp drop, there was a V-shaped rebound, but this rebound was more of a correction caused by short covering rather than a strong bullish reversal.
In the afternoon session, the price surged to around 4390-4400 but couldn't rise further. The 1-hour momentum clearly weakened, MACD red bars continuously shrinking, buying volume at 96, now retreating and hovering around 4350.
Resistance above is at 4380-4400, which is a previous high with heavy selling pressure. Only if the 1-hour volume expands and stabilizes above 4400 can the rebound continue upward; if it fails to break through, it is likely to turn down and fall back.
Key support below is at 4320-4330, which is the neckline support of this rebound. Once the 1-hour chart effectively breaks below this level, this rebound is basically over and will retest lower levels.
Recommendation: Buy around 4300-4320, target 4360-4400-4430 $BTC $ETH $BTC ETF just hit the strongest consecutive inflows of the year, then suddenly reversed.
From September 8 to 10, there were three consecutive trading days of net outflows totaling about $450 million. On the 10th alone, $283 million flowed out, marking the largest single-day net outflow since July. BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and ARK all pulled back. Yet just a week earlier, from September 2 to 4, there were consecutive inflows of $1.01 billion, showing a direct reversal in capital flow within a week.
Two forces are exerting pressure simultaneously. The probability of a rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting has surged above 87%, and Goldman Sachs has shifted from a "hold" stance to expecting a rate hike. On the other hand, the BTC quarterly options expire on September 25, with a notional value of $14.39 billion, accounting for 41.5% of the year's open interest, with the largest pain point price near $72,000, below the current spot price. Market makers' hedging actions will amplify short-term volatility.
For $BTC, the weakening ETF funds + rising rate hike expectations + options expiration, these three variables combined create significant short-term pressure. The 76,500 level has recently been tested. But from another perspective, if the rate hike is confirmed in September and the Fed signals that the "rate hike cycle is nearing its end," the negative factors could be fully priced in and potentially mark the start of a rebound. Let's first see how the FOMC speaks in the early hours of the 17th.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 $ARB ARB alert triggered! Unlocking coming on September 16, how much longer can this wave hold?
ARB previously surged quickly riding narratives like Robinhood Chain, attracting a large amount of capital in a short time. But in my view, what really needs caution is not how high it has risen, but that the current market structure has already started to change.
From the trend, after ARB's high-level pullback, the lows keep moving down, and the highs are gradually lowering. The short-term is no longer just a high-level consolidation, but more like a weakening trend after the bullish momentum fades.
The previous sharp rise accumulated a large amount of profit-taking positions, and around September 10 there was even a single-day pullback of about 13%. When it rises fast, capital cashing out profits will naturally be more decisive.
More importantly, about 92.6 million ARB tokens are expected to unlock on September 16, accounting for about 2% of the circulating supply. The new chips entering the market can easily further amplify selling pressure in the short term.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
So my thinking is simple: I will not chase ARB now just because of previous positive narratives. The short-term focus is on whether it can stop falling and reclaim key resistance levels. If it continues to decline and lows keep refreshing, I will be more inclined to view rebounds as shorting opportunities rather than blindly bottom-fishing. BTC has already fallen below 77K over the weekend, and the real deterioration in the Asian session on Monday is not within the crypto circle but on the energy side: Saudi Arabia has shut down the East-West oil pipeline bypassing Hormuz, the Oman mediation meeting has been postponed again, and Brent opened directly to surge back above $107. The probability of a Fed rate hike this week is still about 86%, so today I am more worried about "oil prices pushing yields higher again" rather than simply worrying about BTC's technicals.$ZEC's support at low levels is getting stronger, and a pullback might be an opportunity!
After the price previously pulled back to around 1041.70, it didn't continue to drop but quickly found support. Then, bullish funds kept entering, pushing the price up wave after wave. The key point is that the rebound didn't just spike and end; it continuously raised the lows, and the short-term structure has gradually shifted from a weak downtrend to a stronger trend.
Currently, the price is near 1144.90, with 1152.53 above as a critical short-term level to watch. If the price pushes higher but fails to break out with volume at this level, there might be another pullback; however, if it holds firmly with volume, it means the selling pressure above has truly been absorbed, and the upside potential will be more than just these few points.
So my current strategy is clear: don't chase the price upwards; wait for a pullback to the support area to look for opportunities to build positions gradually, placing stop-losses below the current rising structure.
The first target is 1152.53; after breaking and holding above it, then follow the momentum to look for further extension space. #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 #美债收益率逼近5%，回购难缓长期压力 $UNI has been consolidating steadily around 5.1 for several days. After repeatedly testing the bottom support, it finally broke above the previous descending channel with increased volume, confirming a short-term trend reversal. Driven strongly by Uniswap fee buybacks and ecosystem upgrade expectations, market funds continue to flow into the DEX sector. I decisively opened a 50x long position at 5.129, and the current price is 6.332, with an unrealized profit of +1172.74%.
In the subsequent trend, 6.5 is a key strong resistance zone. If the price can hold above 6.5 with volume, the upside space will open towards 7.0; if volume shrinks or a long upper shadow appears during the rise, it indicates weakening bullish momentum, and the stop loss must be moved immediately to lock in profits. A 50x leverage has an extremely low tolerance for error and is only suitable for small positions and segmented profit-taking. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $ETH｜After last Friday's sharp surge, is it still possible to short now?
Did anyone catch the long position during last Friday's ETH surge?
Those who caught it indeed made a big profit.
But what's interesting is:
At that time, there wasn't any particularly significant positive news; instead, the September rate hike expectations had quickly risen to nearly 90%.
So why could ETH rally so much directly?
My understanding is that the core reason is that after the CPI data was released, market sentiment was restored.
Previously, the market was heavily pressured by rate hikes, oil prices, and the Middle East situation, with very strong bearish sentiment.
After the CPI announcement, although inflation remained high, the market did not see the feared further deterioration.
Thus, a very typical process occurred:
Panic eased → Bulls entered → Price rose → Shorts stopped out → Forced to cover → Continued rise.
So I prefer to interpret that surge as:
Sentiment recovery + short covering.
Not a sudden major fundamental change.
The current issue is:
After the sharp surge, ETH has returned to consolidation.
Currently, the probability of a September rate hike is about 87%, and the Fed meeting on the 15th–16th of this week has already priced in much of the rate hike expectations.
So I am not keen to chase longs now.
My trading plan:
🔴 Short ETH on rebound
Watch for shorting opportunities around 2530–2550.
If there is a pullback after a spike, volume doesn't increase, or the 1H structure weakens here, I will consider entering.
Stop loss: above 2580
Targets:
TP1: 2490
TP2: 2460
TP3: 2400
Among these, 2460 is a level I pay close attention to.
If 2460 is broken directly and the rebound fails to recover, then 2400 is worth watching further.
Conversely, if ETH volume increases and stabilizes above 2550–2580, this short scenario should be canceled.
⸻
My biggest feeling now is:
The macro environment is indeed bearish, but ETH is not weak enough to short recklessly.
So I prefer to wait for a rebound to resistance before shorting,
rather than chasing around 2490 directly.
Short at 2530–2550, take first profit at 2460;
If 2460 breaks, watch 2400;
Above 2580, the short thesis fails.
This week's FOMC is the real big test.
Do you think ETH will first go to 2550 before dropping, or break 2460 directly?I am currently thinking about something regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.
Right now, 80-90% of the market already believes in the rate hike.
Is there a possibility that the negative impact of this rate hike has already been priced in?
Before the rate hike actually happens, the market has been hyping up the rate hike continuously.
Many tech stocks, such as $SNDK and $SKHYNIX,
have already experienced significant declines in pre-market trading. So when the rate hike is officially confirmed,
the negative impact might have already been largely absorbed.
The real accelerator for the tech sector's decline has never been the rate hike itself,
but rather the period before the rate hike is confirmed.
During the rate hike expectation phase, many sectors are falling.
When the rate hike actually happens, there might not be a significant drop at all.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
ETFs have withdrawn nearly $450 million in three days. Is BTC about to cool off?
Pharaoh says directly, the money is moving faster than Pharaoh's camels, but this is not a retreat—it's a standard risk-hedging move before the FOMC.
There are three reasons. First, CPI and PPI have both taken hits; core inflation is rising instead of falling. The probability of a rate hike in September has surged above 88%, pushing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields higher, which drains risk assets first. Second, Strategy has paused buying crypto, removing the market's most stable big buyer and leaving sentiment unsupported. Third, with the Fed's Wednesday decision and the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations, funds are reluctant to take heavy positions and prefer to lock in profits first.
Looking at the market, BTC is now consolidating near 78,000, with support at 77,500 and 76,000, and resistance at 79,000 and 80,000. ETF outflows are short-term risk hedges, not long-term withdrawals. The real big money is still waiting for the FOMC outcome; whether rates rise and the subsequent path will be the key to direction.
In terms of trading, don't bet on direction. Heavy positions guessing the size before data releases are easily stopped out on both ends. Wait for the Fed and BOJ decisions on Wednesday, let the market digest, then act!
Remember, good trades are waited for, not chased. ETFs are like Pharaoh's camels—they drink their fill and run a few steps first, then wait for the wind! $BTC $ETH $ZEC Key progress has been made in the negotiations of the CLARITY Act.
The Republicans released the latest compromise text, and Trump agreed to about 80% of the Tillis-Gallego ethics proposal.
If the president or other officials hold "significant" crypto-related interests, they must divest or place them into a blind trust.
The participation of state attorneys general in enforcement, which the White House previously resisted, has also been accepted by Trump.
This round of changes is not limited to ethics provisions.
The scope of protection for BRCA developers has been narrowed, with explicit protections related to criminal cases removed;
A "circuit breaker" mechanism has been added to stablecoin yields—if a large amount of bank deposits flow into stablecoins, the federal government can intervene, with final discretion given to Treasury Secretary Bessent.
The Agriculture Committee section strengthens conflict-of-interest restrictions on vertically integrated exchanges, brokers, and market makers, while retaining state consumer protection laws and clarifying that developer protections cannot circumvent derivatives and prediction market regulations.
The Republicans say this is the Democrats' "last, best and final offer"—the last, best, and final proposal.
The timeline is also set: Trump held a closed-door ethics talk on Friday, Schumer urgently convened a Democratic meeting on Sunday, and then the Republicans submitted a new text.
The key vote is at 14:15 Eastern Time on September 15, when the Senate will decide whether to formally enter bill debate, requiring 60 votes.
If this final compromise still fails to secure enough Democratic votes, the CLARITY Act may be stalled not because Republicans refuse to allow it, but because Democrats do not approve. 🔷 $XRP: shorts are not ready for good news
• Tomorrow the Senate votes on CLARITY (19% chance): price 1.376, shorts at 1.41-1.50, longs at 1.30-1.33
• RSI 1h overheated, OI is falling: longs are being flushed out before the event
🧠 The market doesn't believe in the passage — that's why it will become a squeeze. Rejection — cascade down to 1.30.
🎣 Long 1.308-1.312, take profit 1.370/1.410, stop 1.285. No position one hour before and one hour after the vote.
⚠️ Postponement = volatility without direction.
❓ Are you voting or waiting for the fact?👇 $FIL old coin revived! On September 14 alone, it surged violently by 21.08%
Up 20% in a week, 41.5% in a month, with 24h volume at $334 million, more than three times the 30-day average volume.
Filecoin officially launched a new site this week, filecoin.cloud, upgrading "on-chain storage" to "on-chain cloud services." FVM makes data programmable, transforming from distributed hard drives into a cloud base capable of computing and permission control, directly capturing the AI training and DePIN two major trends.
The fundamentals are really moving. On 8/29, an analyst revealed that Filecoin's volume of storing raw data for AI increased quarter-over-quarter by 40%, with LLM training datasets migrating onto this chain; Foundation Chair Marta Belcher pointed out that in Q2, global enterprise cloud infrastructure was $143 billion, with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google taking 63%, and decentralized storage is the antidote. FVM ecosystem lock-up is increasing, suppressing circulating supply. Technically, it broke the downtrend channel; after breaking $0.8644, the target is $0.9950, with Binance and OKX long-short ratios both above 1.9.
But don’t just look at the candlesticks. FIL is still down 35% year-to-date, 99.5% below its ATH of $189, so the old coin has significant valuation recovery potential and a thick trapped position. Token unlock ends on 10/15, cutting gross issuance by 75%, the largest supply-side change since mainnet launch; the market is front-running, and real adoption could turn into a positive for selling. The FOMC rate hike probability for 9/15-16 is 57-60%.
The supply shock has a deadline; the turnaround still depends on real ecosystem usage. Last night BTC and ETH experienced wide fluctuations again, and my long positions also went through a round of stress testing. The switch between rise and fall is very quick, and emotions are easily swayed, but especially at times like this, it's more important to look at the structure rather than focus on minute-by-minute changes. Large ups and downs are often a reshuffle before a new trend, sweeping up and down to clear floating chips. If a continuous rally suddenly emerges afterward, those who short will be at a disadvantage. Although this drop is significant, neither BTC nor ETH has broken key support levels, indicating that selling pressure has not yet caused a trend-breaking damage; unless an external black swan appears, a complete washout is not easy. My approach remains: gradually go long on Ethereum below 3000, control leverage, keep enough margin, and use time to gain space. Small funds especially need to gamble within their bearable range, avoid heavy positions and emotional decisions. Waiting for the wind is more important than chasing the wind.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？
#日银年内再加息成焦点 Chip suppliers are preparing to become anchor investors worth billions of dollars in their customers' IPOs, which is more than just "being optimistic about AI."
According to reports, Nvidia is discussing investing up to $10 billion in Anthropic's potential IPO. Anthropic hopes to raise huge funds through the listing while continuously purchasing computing power driven by Nvidia GPUs. Nvidia invests capital, Anthropic gains expansion funds, and the money may then flow back into the Nvidia ecosystem through cloud services and GPU procurement.
This arrangement does not necessarily represent false demand, but it does blur the price discovery function that an IPO originally carries. When the largest supplier also becomes a major investor, does the issue price truly reflect independent market demand, or is it a growth expectation jointly maintained by members within the ecosystem?
Nvidia certainly has ample reasons to do this. Supporting Anthropic can expand CUDA usage and also prevent the AI model market from being monopolized by a single company. But investors need to see clearly that it is transforming from a chip-selling company into a bank, underwriter, and risk co-bearer of the AI industry.
When winning, it can capture profits from the entire industry chain; if the customer's financing ability weakens, the risk will also return along the same chain.
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO Be cautious of this rally; it might be an illusion.
Ethereum's rebound looks strong this time.
Contract funds keep flowing in, sweeping out a large number of short positions below.
However, spot market funds are weak in follow-through.
Short-term resistance at 2520.
A rise driven solely by short stop-losses is unstable at its core.
Without continuous spot buying support, it's hard for the market to sustain a big rally.
The market looks lively, but chasing it can easily lead to traps.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $ETH The crypto community is facing a decisive moment as the FOMC decision lands, determining the short-term direction of Bitcoin #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC Many people have been watching the price needle back and forth these past two days and are starting to lose their positions, sometimes thinking it will surge to 80,000, other times fearing a direct plunge.
But everyone must see the essence clearly: all current short-term fluctuations are capital playing games with the Federal Reserve; there is no independent market trend yet.
Many have a misconception, focusing solely on whether there will be a rate hike or not. In fact, the market has long priced in the possibility of a 25BP rate hike.
The real variable is Powell's tone in his speech. If he signals rate cuts next year, the market will take it as positive news; if he insists rates will remain high for a long time, the market will face a wave of panic selling.
This is also why Bitcoin is stuck oscillating between 76,000 and 78,000, with big players watching and no one willing to bet on a direction prematurely.
I have reanalyzed three possible future scenarios from a different angle:
1. Neutral expectation (most likely): 25BP rate hike with a mild stance
First, a downward spike to shake out leverage, then stabilizing around 76,800 before bottoming and rebounding, continuing range-bound oscillation.
2. Negative surprise: rate hike plus maintaining high rates afterward
Break below the key support at 75,500, market weakens, Bitcoin drops to 72,000–73,000, altcoins collectively plunge, and many contracts liquidate.
3. Low-probability positive: pause rate hikes but hawkish speech
Short-term impulse rally, sentiment-driven surge followed by a pullback, chasing longs is risky.
3. Positive surprise (low probability): pause rate hikes but speech remains cautiousTomorrow is the key voting day for the 15th bill. Today, I will explain the core logic thoroughly so everyone understands why good news landing actually causes the market to crash.
First: The market has long priced in the good news.
From the early low rebound to now, the price has risen from around 63,000 to about 82,000. This entire wave of increase, from the news perspective, is essentially speculation on the bill's expected approval.
The capital market always works like this: it rallies ahead of expectations and sells off once the fact is confirmed.
Everyone is waiting for the bill to pass, waiting for institutions to enter, waiting for regulatory compliance, so funds have already positioned themselves early and pushed the market up in advance.
Once the bill is truly passed, it means there is no new story to hype. All the good news is fully realized, and the main funds in the market have no reason to continue pushing prices up. They will take advantage of the widespread bullish sentiment to sell off at the high.
Second: Passing the bill does not mean an immediate bull market; rather, it means regulatory shackles are in place.
Many people think compliance equals a big rally, but actually, it's the opposite.
A clear bill landing means the crypto market is no longer growing wildly; it is officially under strict regulatory frameworks. Subsequent classification regulation, fund compliance, platform restrictions, and yield controls will all be implemented. Institutional funds will not blindly enter the market.
The so-called compliance benefit is just retail investors comforting themselves. For the main funds, it means uncertainty is removed, and they can safely exit the market.
Third: The market structure itself is a rebound to lure more buyers, not a main upward wave.
This rebound from the low point, I define throughout as a corrective rebound, not the start of a new bull market.
The extreme resistance of this rebound is around 81,000, which is also where I plan to fully take profits on long positions and heavily open short positions.Brothers, take a look, the $ZEC whales are at it again, desperately pushing the price up. It has been sideways for two days, never breaking below 1000.
First, let's look at the latest news: ZEC's fundamentals are being completely rewritten.
The NU7 network upgrade vote ends today (September 14). The core issue is replacing the cyclical halving with a smooth issuance curve, shortening block intervals from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. Once passed, ZEC's supply narrative will be directly rewritten. Coupled with continuous ETF inflows, this is a dual-engine ignition.
On-chain, whales are much more honest than retail investors.
In the past week, a certain whale has withdrawn about 12,870 ZEC from Binance, OKX, Kraken, and Gate, all transferred to a new wallet, worth about $13.65 million. Even more aggressive, another whale bought 36,360 ZEC in 6 days, spending $41.56 million. Large funds are withdrawing coins to lock them up, not selling off.
Looking at market data, this is the most critical part.
ZEC is currently priced around $1160, with a 24-hour spot trading volume of about $1.96 billion and a market cap close to $19.6 billion. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average is at $689, the 20-day moving average at $910, and the price is firmly above all key moving averages, indicating a healthy long-term trend. The RSI has dropped from the overbought zone to about 64, releasing overbought pressure, and the short-term correction is nearing its end.
The most important thing—shorts have been squeezed out.
Among top traders, short accounts make up 72.05%, longs only 27.95%, with a long-short ratio of just 0.39. At the $1134 level above, there is a strong short liquidation pressure of $42 million, while long liquidations below are only $2.5 million. This is an extremely unbalanced leverage structure. The largest on-chain short whale, Garrett Jin, holds nearly 40,000 ZEC with unrealized losses exceeding $24 million.
Whales are keeping the price above 1000, shorts can't push it down, whales are accumulating, and the NU7 vote will be finalized tonight. Once it breaks above 1134, the shorts between 1160 and 1200 will be paper-thin.
I'm bullish on this wave of ZEC. What do you think? Let's discuss in the comments. 🧋💀
$BTC
$ETH
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ I don't look at $XRP only as a trade.
I look at the possibility of XRP becoming a bridge asset inside a more tokenized financial system.
That thesis still needs to prove itself.
But if institutions continue moving toward blockchain rails, liquidity and settlement become increasingly important.
That’s where XRP gets interesting.【$BTC】On the Eve of the FOMC: Why I'm Still Holding Long Positions
Many people have asked me these past two days: With a 90% chance of a rate hike, why am I still holding long positions?
My answer is simple: I'm not afraid of the rate hike itself, but of not knowing why I placed the trade.
Looking back at this week: CPI was released, core month-on-month exceeded expectations, rate hike expectations surged from 70% to 90%—that's quite a bearish impact, right? BTC was hammered down to 75,866, and then? 76,000 was repeatedly tested and reclaimed, and this morning it pulled back to 77,794. The bears have been pounding for three days but haven't broken through.
What does this indicate? Those who needed to sell have already sold. ETFs are still seeing net inflows, long-term holders haven't budged, funding rates are ridiculously low—the market is far from crowded, and the short positions held by retail traders aren't even enough for the main players to swallow in one bite.
So my logic is straightforward:
• If 76,000 doesn't break, this is just a shakeout, so I hold.
• If 76,000 breaks, I admit defeat and exit; I don't gamble.
• The direction will naturally be clear at the moment of the 9/17 release.
The hardest part of futures trading isn't the technicals, but whether you dare to stick to your plan when everyone else is shouting for you to run. Fear and greed are contagious; the only antidote is the stop-loss line you wrote before placing the trade.
Keep your position light, set your stop-loss well, and leave the rest to time. Let's encourage each other.
#BTCTrendAnalysis #TradingMindset
Risk Warning: This is personal analysis only and does not constitute trading advice.#Trump accepts new ethics rules, CLARITY vote approaching
Before the procedural vote on September 15
The ethics rules finally loosen
The latest text includes ethics proposals agreed by Trump
The Tillis-Gallego plan is about 80% accepted
Includes expanded enforcement powers for state attorneys general
Officials must divest significant interests in crypto issuance entities
Or place them in blind trusts
Democrats are still negotiating whether to join
Schumer has convened the core to discuss the stance
This is not the final vote
60 votes are needed to proceed to formal consideration
Republicans don't have enough seats, they need to pull in Democrats
A step forward before the regulatory framework
ETH compliance narrative often stronger than BTC
But the window narrows again within the year
So my judgment is
Don't heavily bet on the 60 votes
Wait for the September 15 result before moving funds
$ETH $BTC #CLARITY #Regulation#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
Weekly Crypto Market Review
This week's market initially rose then fell, with macro data and regulatory developments tugging back and forth, causing significant volatility. False breakouts and sharp drops alternated.
$BTC hit 81200 but was resisted and fell back, currently at 76950, with the 1-hour chart showing weakening momentum. ETF funds have been continuously reducing holdings, short-term chips exiting to observe; some long-term addresses are increasing positions against the trend. Resistance is at 79000‑79800, key support at 75800; if broken, it may trigger concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs.
$ETH touched 2695 then retraced to 2472, showing slightly stronger resilience than the broader market, with buying interest still present at low levels. ETF subscriptions and redemptions are mixed, with no panic selling observed. Resistance at 2590‑2640, support at 2415, and the KDJ death cross suggests the correction is not over.
$ZEC led gains this week, once rising to 1310 before profit-taking pushed it down to 1088. Intense large-player battles with frequent contract long and short liquidations indicate waning heat; 1025 is an important defense level.
Rotation among other sectors has accelerated, lacking a sustained main theme. Open interest across the market remains high, with on-chain major funds generally on the sidelines. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve decision and legislative progress. Operations remain cautious, focusing on key points and controlling positions while waiting for clearer trends $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC I choose to stand with the bulls. The market basically assumes a 25 basis point rate hike this time, but this expectation has long been priced in and is no longer a surprise variable.
FedWatch data shows an 86% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Before Waller's speech on August 28, the market was still evenly split on whether there would be a rate hike. During this period, $BTC only slightly dropped from 77846 to 77600, with very little price volatility.
The reason it did not weaken as expected lies in the performance of the US dollar. The logic that rate hikes suppress crypto assets depends on a stronger dollar, but the dollar index actually fell from 99.70 to 99.35, so this negative transmission chain did not take effect. The cause of this rate hike is not economic overheating but pressure from rising oil prices: Brent crude surged from $89 to $107. The market interprets this rate hike as a passive response to inflation, not the start of a new sustained tightening cycle.
Total contract open interest shrank from $8.48 billion to $8.06 billion within a week. The prior price drop from 81270 to 76569 was the market preemptively digesting this rate hike expectation.
Forecast: Within 48 hours after the decision, if $BTC holds the 76500 support, it is likely to test the 80000 level upwards.
Conditions triggering a bearish turn: Waller signals continued rate hikes in October, or the 10-year US Treasury yield stabilizes above 5% (currently 4.97%).
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC & GRAM Are Playing Different Games
$BTC remains the market’s liquidity benchmark, where the key question is whether buyers can keep defending important levels.
$GRAM is a different setup: its potential depends much more on adoption, liquidity and actual ecosystem usage than on Bitcoin’s broader market role
I’d watch BTC for market direction and GRAM for whether real demand is developing behind the token
Two assets, two very different signals
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq Anthropic IPO, is it worth looking forward to?
I think it's worth paying attention to, but that doesn't mean blindly chasing it.
There are rumors in the market that Anthropic plans to list on Nasdaq in October, with a valuation that could even reach 2 trillion dollars. However, this valuation has not been officially priced yet and still belongs to market expectations.
What really catches my attention is its growth rate.
It is actually re-pricing the entire AI industry.
What does this mean for AI concept stocks?
I think there will be two completely different impacts.
The first is valuation uplift.
If Anthropic can still be chased by the market after listing, it means funds are still willing to give AI a high valuation.
Then companies that "sell shovels" like Nvidia, Broadcom, cloud computing, data centers, and power infrastructure will continue to benefit.
The second is actually more worth being cautious about:
If the valuation is too high, it must be proven by performance.
The rumored market valuation of Anthropic is already approaching 2 trillion dollars, and previously the market supported the high valuation with its future revenue expectations. Reuters previously reported that Anthropic's revenue forecast for 2028 is about 190 to 200 billion dollars.
I want to see how many times valuation the market is willing to give AI after it goes public.
That is the truly important point.
After all, the next round of AI market may not be about whose story is told best, but about who can really deliver revenue, profit, and cash flow.
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO 八万下方横了这么久，不是没人想动，是两边都在等周三凌晨那一下。
87%的加息概率早就被吃进价格，真正没定价的是点阵图和会后那几句表态。
对手盘的角度看，76000到75500这个区间堆了不少止损和杠杆，先插一针再拉，比直接涨更省力。
但要是点阵图显示年内还得加、高利率继续拖，75500破了就是72000到73000，山寨跌起来不会客气。
我不站方向，只认一件事：加息本身已经不重要了，重要的是表态有没有松口。
你们这周打算怎么接，等落地还是提前埋？
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 #美债收益率逼近5%，回购难缓长期压力 $BTC $XAU $GOLD Review
Tip: Gold price is operating at the zero axis position of the 30-minute MACD, not suitable for further decline, with a short-term key defense at 4330; a valid break below will break the daily structure and lead to a deeper drop.
Actual trend: On Monday, the opening price surged to a high of 4356 before falling back, and the current price is exactly at the key support of 4330.
Next focus: Whether 4330 can effectively stop the decline and start a rebound.
Intraday resistance remains at 4355:
✅ Breakthrough and hold → successful bottom formation at the 1-hour level
❌ Failure to break through → the market remains weak
The daily-level rebound structure is still intact, so do not rush to conclusions. Give gold a little more patience, wait for the bottom formation to complete and the indicators to cross upward.ETH’s Next Move Needs More Than Momentum
$ETH has the infrastructure, liquidity and developer activity to remain central to the crypto economy. The bigger question is whether that strength continues translating into sustainable demand.
I’m paying attention to capital flows, network usage and activity across Ethereum’s ecosystem.
If those metrics keep improving while price remains relatively quiet, the market may be underestimating what is developing underneath.
That’s the setup worth trackin$GAS Switched to the background and replied to a message, then came back, and it had already finished the job.
While everyone else was still watching, GAS lacked support, the rebound was weak, and the resistance above was strong. I judged it as a short from the high point and placed the short order first.
Shorted from 1.3481 to 1.3273, +30.7%, really satisfying, can treat myself to a good meal. The premise of compounding is staying alive; the shortcut to getting rich quick often leads to zero.
First close 80%, protect 20% at cost price, let the profit run if it continues to drop, and don’t give back the profit if it rebounds. The money earned is the realization of your understanding; the money lost is the flaw in your understanding.
Don’t rush to chase; now is not the time to rush. Chasing highs easily gets you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round and act when the next signal comes. There are still opportunities.
$ADA $XRP #This week's FOMC announcement: Will the rate hike land?
That big bearish candle on non-farm payroll night hit like a sucker punch, leaving the market dazed. Two days later, everyone is still rubbing their eyes—everything looks like a rebound, but they're afraid to reach out and get bitten.
$BTC is now at 76,480. After the data, it first dropped to 74,120, then pulled back to 78,950, forming a classic "door" pattern. On the 1-hour chart, it has climbed back above MA5/MA10, but MA30 and the upper Bollinger band at 79,200 are pressing down hard. MACD is stuck as a line below the zero axis, and volume has shrunk as if strangled.
$ETH is currently at 2,488, showing more resilience than BTC. Moving averages are flattening, MACD's green bars are shortening, hinting at a quiet capital inflow. On data night, it dipped but didn't break the previous low, then reversed to touch 2,610, showing a more composed rhythm than BTC.
$ZEC is at 1,124, oscillating between 1,080 and 1,190. The moving averages are twisted like a braid, and KDJ is stuck at 52, neither up nor down. The afterglow of the previous violent surge has completely cooled off.
The current contradiction is intense: rate cut expectations pushed to next year, the dollar index surged to 107, and ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive days—all pressure points. Yet after the non-farm spike, not only did the market not crash, $BTC even touched back to 79,000, and $ETH followed with a rebound.
In this market, don't bet on direction. The post-data spike cures all doubts, with two rounds of long and short blowouts—whoever is impatient pays the tuition. You can't earn much working all day; if you don't understand, just rest and wait for it to choose its own direction. 美国国债10年期收益率逼近5%的关键心理关口。 截至9月11日，10年期美债收益率收于约4.96%，盘中一度触及4.974%，为2023年10月以来最高水平；30年期收益率站上5.35%，刷新2007年以来纪录；对货币政策更敏感的2年期收益率升至约4.63%。自6月下旬以来，债券收益率一路攀升，10年期收益率较有效联邦基金利率高出约115个基点，较大的期限利差反映出市场对长期通胀、财政赤字与债务可持续性的深层担忧。 三重推力同步引爆债市抛售。 其一，油价飙升是核心导火索——美伊海上冲突持续升级，布伦特原油结算价单日暴涨6.3%至每桶107.63美元，加剧了通胀预期。其二，8月PPI同比升至5.4%，高于上月4.7%，超出华尔街预期。其三，特朗普在中期选举集会上承诺向所有美国成年人发放5000美元支票，据测算总成本约1.2万亿至1.3万亿美元，远超关税收入规模，进一步加剧了债务与通胀忧虑。 财政部回购操作“雷声大雨点小”，反而加剧市场不安。 美国财政部周四实际回购51.87亿美元的10年至20年期国债，低于此前宣布的60亿美元上限，对10年至20年期国债而言，回购未满上限更是史无前例。$CP I was about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked my balance and decided against it; the market is always right 😮💨
When the market was just crashing in the morning session, CP's rebound looked somewhat promising. But the more I watched the order book, the more something felt off—every upward push lacked momentum, a classic sign of insufficient support. This kind of rebound looks lively but actually has no one backing it. The market keeps teaching you lessons, but many choose to pretend they're asleep.
I casually placed a short order at 0.04261, and some said I was too late. I didn’t bother arguing, just waited for the outcome. Just now, the price plunged directly to 0.01290, and my position's profit rate hit +1394.03%. The earlier hesitation was real, but the result is truly sweet. Feeling good, brothers, this rhythm was spot on, better than anything else 😎
I’m taking profits on 80% of my position now, leaving 20% with a stop loss at breakeven. Whether it rebounds or continues to drift down, I won’t be upset. The premise of compounding is survival; shortcuts to getting rich often lead to zero. Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding. Don’t chase now; chasing at lows is risky. I’ll wait for the next new signal.
$XRP $BNB Morning strategy perfectly took profit! Follow-up market layout ideas for Bitcoin
Poem: With a broad vision, observe the market; only after pocketing the gains do you know the strategy is true
The idea given for Bitcoin this morning has already been realized, successfully taking profit and reaping the rewards!
After closing the position, many brothers asked if there are still opportunities to enter later and how to operate the market next.
Let me directly tell everyone the key points and explain the rhythm of the upcoming market clearly, laying out the critical highs and lows once and for all.
The overall big direction is still upward. This slight pullback now is just a shakeout before the rise, not a market reversal or weakening, so no need to be overly bearish.
【Short-term core support】
2495~2505, today's key support range.
The logic is simple: as long as this range is not broken downward, the bullish trend remains. When the price pulls back to this level, it's a low-buy entry opportunity, so don't always worry about missing out.
$ETH
【Intraday upper resistance target】
Wait for the market to stabilize and start rebounding; the first target is 2580.
Focus on the 2450 level; if the market holds and breaks through here, you can follow the trend toward the 2580 resistance level and add long positions.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
✅Overall operation idea: buy on dips at support, do not short if support holds, follow the bullish direction, and add positions after effective breakouts!BTC Is Testing the Strength Beneath the Price
$BTC can look quiet while important positioning is happening underneath.
The signal I care about is how quickly buyers step in when price pulls back. Strong absorption of selling pressure suggests demand is still present, while repeated failures at support would tell a different story.
For me, reaction matters more than direction.
I’d track liquidity and volume around key levels before deciding whether the next move has real strength$PONS
PONS's move today feels pretty comfortable.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, PONS has rallied from around 0.495 to above 0.56, showing a relatively strong short-term trend. Currently, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all trending upwards, and the price remains above these moving averages, indicating that bulls still have the upper hand.
I personally made two long trades on PONS: one entered at 0.5255 and exited at 0.5635, gaining +71.54%; the other entered at 0.5276 and exited at 0.5521, gaining +45.40%. Together, these two trades netted about 964U.
The strategy behind these trades was simple: I saw support around 0.52–0.53, so I bought low and took profits in batches as the price rose. Now that the price has reached near the previous high of 0.5641, I think it's wise to be cautious and not chase the price just because it’s rising.
Next, I’m focusing on two key levels:
First, whether 0.5641 can be broken with volume. If it breaks and holds above, there’s potential for a further short-term rally towards 0.58–0.60.
Second, if it fails to break through, watch the 0.55 and 0.54 levels. If the price can hold after a pullback there, I believe there’s still a chance for strength to continue.
Currently, my view remains bullish but I won’t chase highs; I’ll wait for a pullback or a confirmed breakout. After all, the price has already risen from around 0.52, and chasing with 10x leverage now doesn’t offer as favorable a risk-reward ratio as before.
I’ll take profits first and wait for the next opportunity. I think PONS’s move isn’t over yet, but the higher it goes, the more important it is to watch for profit-taking.⚡ INJ +13% FOR THE WEEK. I'M ALREADY LONG FROM $6.10
INJ broke through $6.10–6.12 and after the retest I opened a Long from $6.10. 🐳 Whales 1.4:1 Long, top traders 1.16, funding +0.0025%. OI down 20% for the month.
Targets: $6.38 → $6.50 → $6.92
Stop: $5.78
Fed week — main risk. Now watching if $6.10 will hold as support. 👀BTC and ETH both fell during the day; one was dragged down by the overall market, the other was catching up on a correction—don't confuse the two.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
Both turned red, but one is a steady anchor pressed down by risk sentiment, the other is a strong coin correcting after a rally—their subsequent movements are completely different.
#霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟
In the Middle East's aggressive rate hike sell-off, BTC is at 76,700, down about 0.8%, ETH at 2,478, down about 1.8%. Both look red, but their nature is different.
$BTC is mainly dragged down by market sentiment; its own trading range hasn't broken and the drop is restrained, so it's "dragged down." $ETH had risen a lot earlier and is now catching up on a correction over the past two days, with a drop clearly larger than $BTC, so it's "catching up on a correction." Don't rush to buy before the correction is complete. One depends on external market conditions, the other depends on whether it has fully corrected itself.
Next, when risk eases, the dragged-down BTC will recover first; the correcting ETH needs to stabilize again between 2,450 and 2,500 to count; if it continues to fall, the correcting $ETH will be weaker in the short term. The dragged-down one follows the market, the correcting one depends on full correction—don't bottom-fish halfway through the correction.$ETH The weekly chart of Ethereum seems to be replicating the trend from April to September last year. If it continues to rise like this, it makes me a bit uneasy and hesitant to keep shorting it.
Comparing to April last year, it was also a round of decline to a low point, followed by a big bullish candle that pushed the price to around 2500 where it oscillated. Currently, the MACD is forming a golden cross below the zero line, and the EMA 5, 10, and 21 moving averages have all turned upwards, showing an upward trend. The difference this time is that the amplitude is wider and the bottoming period is longer.
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is approaching. If this time the rate cut surprises all of us with a 25 basis point reduction,
would it directly end this late-stage bear market and successfully replicate last year's bull market for a big rally?
But that’s a hopeful thought. A rate cut is now impossible. Inflation in the US is clearly higher than before, and US nonfarm payroll and CPI data are all higher than expected. The probability of a rate hike is as high as 85%, and it’s basically certain, just waiting for the Fed’s announcement.
My position plan: I am still holding my short positions on Ethereum and do not plan to open any new positions before the Fed’s rate decision.
$ETH
The above is just my personal market insight and does not constitute any trading advice.What’s next for the "Crypto Clarity Act"?
┈➤ Pressure from the Democrats is favorable to the "Crypto Clarity Act"
On Sunday night, the Democratic caucus held an emergency meeting to discuss the "Crypto Clarity Act."
This is a good sign because if it doesn’t pass, it would be unfavorable for the Democrats in the midterm elections.
Crypto voters and related stakeholders might then choose to support Republican lawmakers.
Therefore, some Democratic lawmakers might lean toward supporting the "Crypto Clarity Act."
┈➤ But time is still extremely tight
The fastest timeline is a preliminary vote on the 15th, a formal vote on the 16th, and a House vote on the 17th.
Although the probability on Polymarket has risen to 32%, the chance of passing in such a short time may still be low.
┈➤ Final thoughts
My judgment is that before September 17, the "Crypto Clarity Act" may not pass, but it could pass before the midterm elections.
I believe there is a possibility of a reversal:
Possibility one: Increased support from Democrats leads to a preliminary vote passing on September 15.
Possibility two: After discussions in the Senate, it passes in a subsequent vote. Trump might request the House to wait a couple of days or call back representatives from various states to vote.
I have mostly exited my position after a wave of trading, holding a small position to bet on a reversal. (Don’t laugh at the mini position; family pressures are heavy, plus premenstrual syndrome, so large positions can lead to irrational actions.)
The core logic behind expecting a reversal is that during the midterm election phase, the two parties compete, and crypto benefits.Whether the clarity act passes or not, it's not that important.
If it's a bull market, at most it's just a spark; simply relying on this act to drive a major bull market in the crypto space is probably just wishful thinking.
A major bull market in crypto must be driven by significant underlying crypto-native innovations, such as the ICOs in 2017, DeFi, NFTs, GameFi in 2021, and inscriptions in 2023, although inscriptions are somewhat lacking.
Without these fundamental project innovations, what’s the point of expecting a law to make a difference? Even in a bear market, passing the act might not boost prices and could even lead to a drop.
Right now, I’m not paying attention to this clarity act at all; what I care about is whether there are still innovations in the crypto space—that’s the key point.#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
Core narrative: The market is seriously pricing in the possibility of the first interest rate hike since 2023 for the first time, with risk assets reacting in advance. BTC leads the decline, ETH follows defensively, and SOL repeatedly loses and regains key integer levels. Overall, it is in a risk-off phase ahead of macro events, with rebounds lacking follow-through.
BTC failed to hold after falling below 77,000, with the lower edge of the range under continuous pressure. Funding signals are bearish: although net inflows to exchanges have slowed, whale distribution traces remain, and ETFs have seen net outflows of about $450 million over three consecutive days.
Key structure: Approximately 539,000 long-held chips are accumulated in the 77,100–80,200 range, forming a supply wall above. The current price is below the wall; reclaiming 77,000 can only be seen as halting the decline, not an effective breakout.
· Support: 75,000–76,000; breaking 76,000 confirms a breakdown of the lower range edge
· Resistance: 77,800–78,300
ETH follows BTC defensively, with short-term structure weakening. This is not the time to enter; observe the strength of support at 2,450. If it breaks 2,360, rotation logic pauses.
· Support: 2,450–2,425, 2,360–2,350
· Resistance: 2,508–2,524, 2,544–2,564
Summary in one sentence: As the macro window approaches, the market shifts from "front-running rate cuts" to "pricing in rate hikes," with the three major crypto assets simultaneously de-risking $BTC $ETH $ZEC 前两天，很多老妖币大暴涨。 今天，很多妖币都原形毕露了，譬如说现在跌幅榜第一的$LAB 。 我记得前两天它是涨幅榜第一，今天就已经是跌幅榜第一了。 —————————————————— 我昨天写了文章，我说$LAB 暂时还不能去抄底。 目前来看，我昨天的判断没有错，确确实实不能抄底。 那问题来了，现在可以去抄底吗？ 我认为仍旧不是一个抄底的好时机。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 我们可以发现，在今天下跌过程中，它的合约多空比一直在上升，但是合约持仓量是先上升后下降。 这说明，目前过了空头止盈的阶段，已经有一批多头进去抄底了。 但是，这并不意味着现在可以做多。 我们看长一点时间的数据。 我们可以发现，它目前的合约多空比还没有回到之前价格开始反弹的位置。 也就是说，现在虽然多头在抄底，但还没有到能让它逆转趋势的地步。 —————————————————— 我们再看一下它的K线。 可以发现，在上一次下跌中，它是有过好几次插针的，一直到插不动的时候才开始反弹。 目前，它还没有说跌到插不动的位置。 —————————————————— 我认为，现在并不适合抄底，Why has the oil price been rising more fiercely recently?
The core of this round of oil price increase is actually two words:
Supply concerns
Recently, Brent crude oil has climbed back above $100, even reaching above $107 at one point. The most direct reason behind this is the ongoing deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, with new supply and transportation risks emerging in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Saudi energy facilities.
Many people think that rising oil prices must be due to improved global demand.
This time, it's exactly the opposite.
What the market is really worried about is:
The oil is still there, but can it be transported smoothly?
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global energy transportation channel. Once shipping is obstructed, even if actual production cuts have not fully occurred, traders will factor the "risk of supply disruption" into the oil price in advance.
So this round of oil price increase is actually trading on one thing:
What's more troublesome is that if oil prices remain above $100 for a long time, the impact is not just on gas stations.
Crude oil rising → energy costs rising → inflationary pressure returns → the Federal Reserve finds it harder to cut rates or may even continue to lean hawkish → U.S. Treasury yields rise → the U.S. dollar strengthens → stocks, gold, Crypto, and other risk assets come under pressure.
Therefore, I think what we really need to watch next is not:
Whether oil prices can continue to rise
But rather:
When the Middle East supply risk will start to ease.
As long as transportation channels are restored and geopolitical risks decline, this part of the risk premium in oil prices could quickly disappear.
But if the situation continues to escalate, then $100 may no longer be a resistance level but just a new starting point.#布油重返100美元，特朗普称选后将下跌 Data from September 14 shows that BTC price rose slightly by about 0.8% in the past 24 hours, but selling pressure in the derivatives market has significantly increased. The price resilience has not been confirmed by strong buying, indicating a divergence in the market.
The BTC Derivatives Pressure Index fell from -25.36 to -60.80 over 24 hours and has remained in negative territory since September 6. This index combines active buy and sell pressure, changes in BTC-denominated open interest, and funding rates. Currently, it indicates sellers dominate, but it cannot distinguish whether this is due to new short positions opening or long positions closing.
Meanwhile, Coinbase has consistently traded at a discount compared to Binance, with the latest premium index at -0.0455% and the 48-hour average at -0.0323%, reflecting weaker buying demand in the U.S. market.
The market provides two signals to watch: if the Derivatives Pressure Index returns above 0 and Coinbase’s 48-hour average premium turns positive, it would indicate an improved market environment; if negative pressure continues to build, BTC still faces the risk of further decline.
A slight price increase does not equal a trend reversal. The indicators of derivatives and spot premiums are worth continuous monitoring. How do you view the current market divergence? Do you think BTC will break upward next or pull back again? It seems there's no need to worry about the AI threat theory causing a stock market crash tonight. Representing the U.S. government, Trump has officially rejected the calls from the companies behind Claude, ChatGPT, and Grok to slow down the development of cutting-edge AI.
The reason behind this, as previously speculated, is the concern that slowing down would hand the advantage to China, allowing them to overtake on the curve.
Especially now, with intense all-around competition between China and the U.S. in chips, AI, new energy, and other fields, no politician wants to bear the cost for this.
In fact, those calling for a slowdown are mainly the top few companies; the second tier, like Meta's Muse, did not speak out last weekend, and it is highly likely that a fierce arms race will continue.
Once the train of the era starts moving, no one can stop it. Long and Short Crowding List
$SNDK Current rate is opposite to the total settled rate in the past 24 hours: current rate +0.0385%, at the 96th percentile among the latest 100 single settlement samples; total of 3 settled rates in the past 24 hours -0.036%; settled at the current rate, funding fees are paid by longs to shorts, the payment relationship is opposite to that reflected by the cumulative rate in the past 24 hours; price increased by 0.13%, position amount changed by +2.59%.
$KORU Current rate is opposite to the total settled rate in the past 24 hours: current rate +0.0152%, at the 90th percentile among the latest 100 single settlement samples; total of 3 settled rates in the past 24 hours -0.120%; settled at the current rate, funding fees are paid by longs to shorts, the payment relationship is opposite to that reflected by the cumulative rate in the past 24 hours; price dropped by 0.098%, position amount changed by +0.28%. Price decline coexists with longs paying fees, longs face both price weakness and funding cost.
$LAB Price weakens, longs still bear funding cost: current rate +0.0124%, at the 55th percentile among the latest 100 single settlement samples; total of 6 settled rates in the past 24 hours +0.057%; price dropped by 0.98%, position amount changed by -0.20%.Watching the market on Monday, first looking at the macro picture, then the candlesticks. Last week, the Dow dropped 1.6%, the Nasdaq fell 0.7%, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched 4.97%, and the FOMC rate hike probability was 86%, basically priced in by the market. Crypto followed risk assets with reduced volume; the table is quiet, but often opportunities hide in the quiet.
$BTC is sideways around 77,200, with 76,600 as short-term support and 77,700 as resistance. ETFs saw a net outflow of 462 million last week. Jiang Zhuoer said it might first sweep above the 76,000 liquidation zone before pulling back. I placed a small order at 76,600 but didn’t go heavy; this level feels more like a halfway point than a clear opportunity.
$ETH at 2,510 has rebounded 55% from the June low. The 2,350-2,400 range is key support for this rally; if it can’t hold above 2,550, it will remain in consolidation. No position, waiting for direction.
$DOGE at 0.0838 broke below the 20-day moving average, MACD weakening. 0.08 is the last line of defense; breaking that would be structurally bad. I’m holding a small amount without moving it; Musk hasn’t tweeted, and the hype is definitely fading.
If the market continues to digest the rate hike at today’s open, BTC will likely test 76,600 again. If it breaks, expect lower; if not, it will keep grinding. My position is light, waiting to see the reaction at open.
Are you chasing or waiting for a pullback?
՞˶•⩊•˶՞ಣ$BTC is hovering at 77800, and I couldn't resist opening a small short 👊
BTC is just grinding within a 0.95% gain today, with the 24-hour high-low difference less than $1500, and the Bollinger Bands narrowing. RSI6 is stuck around 66, neither up nor down, and the MACD fast and slow lines are glued together—this market is putting people to sleep.
It just touched 77869 above and then fell back, clearly facing resistance. I really couldn't hold back, so I opened a small short position around 77800, betting it won't break through and will pull back. With such small volatility, big money is too lazy to move; it's purely a sideways battle of patience.
If it breaks through 78000 with volume, I'll admit defeat on this trade.
Brothers, in this dead fish market, are you staying flat or like me, itching to open a position? Let's chat in the comments.🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 $TRUMP dropped from 2.338 to 1.912 in four days, and it's spent the last three going nowhere. Bouncing around 1.95 to 2.01 on shrinking volume.
That flat stretch is the tell. After a drop like that, real buyers show up fast or they don't show up at all. Here it's just chop, which usually means late holders slowly giving up.
2.10 is the ceiling now. Under 1.912 there's nothing until the next leg lower.
Meme season done, or just resting?
#TRUMPSellPressure Seven coins' trading volume surged 185%, BTC and ETH prices barely moved
From 14:00 to 15:00, the combined trading volume of seven high-liquidity coin samples rose from 16,672,100 to 47,526,700 USDT, an increase of 185.07%, yet only three closed higher.
BTC trading volume expanded to 3.06 times, closing down 0.024%; ETH expanded to 2.76 times, closing down 0.074%. Meanwhile, open interest increased by 0.04% and 0.57% respectively. Both volume and leverage rose simultaneously, but prices remained steady; for now, observe absorption with increased volume.
Upside confirmation: BTC closes above 77,893.8, ETH closes above 2,527.0; the current neutral judgment becomes invalid if BTC closes below 77,378.0 or ETH closes below 2,508.09. With this volume-based sideways movement, which data would you use to confirm the absorption direction?
#BTC #ETH #MainstreamCoins #TradingObservation