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The Reserve Bank of Australia clearly indicated in its latest monetary policy meeting minutes that all committee members unanimously agreed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. At the same time, the official statement emphasized that to ensure inflation steadily returns to the target range, domestic consumer demand needs to remain moderately constrained for a period. Concurrently, Australia's September NAB business confidence index remained steady at -1, while the business confidence index further declined from the previous -8 to -13.
From a macro fundamental perspective, the unanimous rate hike decision confirms the Australian central bank's firm stance on combating inflation. Although business confidence data weakened, this is a typical technical feature of a tightening cycle aimed at curbing overheated demand, broadly aligning with the transmission path of policies implemented by major central banks globally.
The foreign exchange and fixed income markets quickly digested this hawkish signal, with the Australian dollar showing phase-specific technical support, and the sovereign bond yield curve maintaining a relatively strong oscillation at the short end. The contraction in business expectations further reduces the likelihood of a future inflation rebound, and the market is gradually pricing in the potential tail end of this tightening cycle.
For risk markets such as crypto assets, the central bank's unanimous decision to swiftly clear policy uncertainty is actually a positive signal. Technically, the deleveraging phase nearing its end often indicates that the liquidity bottom is gradually being established, laying a macro foundation for mainstream assets like $BTC to stabilize and rebound at key support levels. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ The facade of this building is still shining, but the load-bearing structure is already groaning—$JITOSOL is now stuck at a dangerous cantilever node.
The current quote is $97.02, with a slight 24H increase of 1.97%, seemingly stable, but the details reveal the flaw when the blueprint is spread out. The short-term Bollinger Band position has already pushed to 87%, with only 0.2% margin left to the upper band and a 1.4% gap to the lower band—this means the price is forcibly squeezed under the ceiling, with almost no structural room to move upward. The short-term RSI reading is 66.4, not yet hitting the overbought red line but approaching the 64 warning threshold, indicating momentum is starting to show fatigue cracks. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 51%, at the midpoint, representing a typical "upper layer suspended, lower layer not solidified" state.
The real problem lies in the foundation depth. The long-term RSI is only 50.4, completely neutral, indicating this 1.97% rise lacks long-term capital as a foundation and relies on short-term scaffolding for temporary support. This structure fears lateral loads the most—once short-term momentum withdraws, the high position at 87% will directly become the starting point of a fall.
My construction judgment: this is a beam that needs reverse reinforcement. The current price is still 1.4% below the Entry at $98.38; the rebound gap must be capped at a higher position before driving piles downward.
📉 Short:
Entry: 98.38 (current price +1.4%)
Take Profit 1: 94.55 (-2.5%)
Take Profit 2: 94.03 (-3.1%)
Stop Loss: 108.25 (+11.6%)
The stop loss set at +11.6% is the structural safety margin I reserved for this project—if even 108.25 is breached, it means the geological survey of the entire building was wrong from the start, and it’s not a correction but a foundation redo. But before that, the short-term overbought pressure combined with the mid-term midpoint downward pull makes the first target of 94.55 with a -2.5% retracement fully workable.
Remember, the white paper is a rendering; on-chain data is the rebar reinforcement diagram. Now this reinforcement diagram tells me: the upper load is overloaded and needs to be unloaded. $ETH rebounded by 100 points, which does not mean the downtrend has stopped
$ETH dropped from 2738 to 2406, a decline of 330 points.
It rebounded for a day and a half, recovering just over 100 points.
What does this price level mean:
2550 is a round number resistance and also the position where bears entered for the second time.
After falling 330 points, it only recovered a bit over 100 points, with the rebound less than half of the decline.
How is this calculated:
The 7-day moving average is at 2580, pressing from above.
Resistance range is from 2557 to 2565, support is first seen at 2500.
If broken, look at 2484, and if broken again, look at the previous low of 2406.
The rebound is less than one-third of the decline, indicating the buying side did not hold.
If the resistance level is not surpassed, the direction has not changed.
Orders placed at 2550 are betting that the rebound will stop here.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH $BTC
$ETH
From Wednesday to Friday, the US will release a series of important data
Wednesday: CPI, Thursday: PPI + Retail Sales, Friday: speech by Walsh
Focus on inflation data and market expectations for Fed rate cuts during these days. If data exceeds expectations, BTC may face pressure; if data is below expectations, it doesn't necessarily mean BTC will immediately surge
What you really need to guard against is not the price going up or down, but the repeated spikes and stop-loss sweeps around the data release
My approach is simple: before data release, avoid heavy bets on direction
After data comes out, first observe the reaction, don't rush to chase the first candlestick
Combine key levels, OI, and CVD, and wait for direction confirmation before taking action
There are always market opportunities, no need to participate in every wave
During such data-intensive weeks, first protect your principal, then consider how much profit to make An Air Force Medical Record: Blowing Wind on the Mountain Top for Months, Just Seeking a Big Needle to Untangle
Patient: The one blowing wind on the mountain top. Chief complaint: BTC, ETH, ZEC short positions trapped, short-term holding turned into long-term investment, accompanied by anxiety, insomnia, and repeatedly watching the market.
Current medical history: Interest rate hike expectations heat up again, inflation, oil prices, and macro pressures strike in turn. Bulls dream of a bull market, bears on the mountain top have been freezing for months.
Diagnosis: Short position trapped syndrome (chronic phase).
Treatment advice: Not seeking to get rich overnight or double up, just hoping the market shows mercy and gives another big needle. If untangled, promise not to open random orders for three days.
Doctor's advice: Interest rate hike expectations ≠ market must fall, the market does not turn because individuals are trapped. Others wait for a bull market, we wait for a waterfall; others hope for new highs, we wait to get untangled.
This medical record seems like a joke but actually reveals the bitterness of the bears. With CPI and PPI announcements imminent and interest rate hike expectations facing tests, the battle between bulls and bears heats up again. But be clear: macro data is only a catalyst; the direction never changes because someone is trapped.
Rather than blowing wind on the mountain top and repeatedly watching the market, it's better to let go of obsession and respond with light positions. The market is always there; surviving longer is the only qualification to wait for your own big needle.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Don't be fooled by the 24-hour inflow; short-term funds are actually sneaking out
Checked the market this morning: BTC at 82,600, ETH at 2,490, SOL at 107
Seeing the gains last night, but short-term funds have been withdrawing all along. The 24-hour inflow is just an illusion
From October 5 to 9, related funds outflowed nearly 1.286 billion, no new money coming in. It's too hard to rise
BTC at 83,000 is key; if it can't hold above, it's useless. If 82,000 breaks, watch 80,000
ETH has been weak after falling below 2,500; if it doesn't improve, watch 2,400
SOL is approaching 105; breaking it could accelerate the drop
CPI and PPI are about to be released, interest rate hike expectations are still choking the market, and the Russia-Ukraine energy agreement is also a risk
I'm currently long but completely getting crushed. Looking at this market, I dare not move at all
No volume, no funds; bottom fishing is like catching a flying knife
Wait for the data to land and see if funds really flow back before making a move. Better to miss out than to gamble recklessly
Are you currently holding no position waiting, or rushing in to bottom fish?👇
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Yesterday I opened a position buying Amazon $AMZN. Actually, this time the order was a bit reckless; I didn't understand it very well. In theory, funds are rotating repeatedly, and today there is capital attracting some people to come in and trade. But looking at the overall market, the current position is quite awkward. There is still a chance to be more stable at the low point. $ETH and $BTC plummeted yesterday. Many thought the bull market was coming and tried to bottom-fish, but ended up with a mouthful of bull crap. Why the plunge? Oil prices and the dollar rose simultaneously, pushing up inflation, which does not support a bull market. Plus, the US stock market is about to enter earnings season. The demand for risk aversion is relatively high. Going forward, attention can actually be focused on the gold trend.The market turned sour overnight. $BTC dropped to 81,800, the 82K support line broke just like that. $ETH fell below 2,500, 2,446 is precarious, and 2,400 is just ahead. $SOL failed to break 110 and is now sitting at 105.66.
The panic is real.
The US dollar index surged to an 18-month high, short positions in the derivatives market surged, longs were liquidated one after another, and oil prices added to the chaos—WTI broke $94, Brent surged to $107, and the market fears inflation data will be pushed higher again.
But smart money is doing the exact opposite.
Strategy bought another 250 $BTC last week at an average price of $86,194, bringing total holdings to 848,000 coins. Note this price—it’s much higher than the current market price. They are adding positions during the decline, not just talking.
An anonymous whale sold 410 $BTC (about $34.16M) on Hyperliquid and immediately bought 14,341 $ETH (about $36.14M) on DEX. They directly swapped from BTC to $ETH, showing a very clear directional sense.
Today, Hong Kong listed its second spot $SOL ETF, the Pando Solana ETF (2831.HK), bringing the global $SOL spot ETF net assets to about $1.9 billion. New capital inflows are opening, but $SOL is falling—this divergence is worth watching.
Everyone is focused on Wednesday’s CPI.
The market expects overall inflation to hit about 3.7%, driven by gasoline price increases, with core CPI expected to hold steady around 2.4%. Deutsche Bank’s analysis is more detailed: overall CPI may rise 0.57% month-over-month, but core CPI only 0.16% month-over-month, and year-over-year core CPI drops from 2.45% to 2.39%. Headline data is hot, core data is cooling.
If core inflation really cools down, this round of sell-off might be an overreaction.
Key levels:
→ $BTC $80.4K, the last line of defense, breaking it won’t look good
→ $ETH $2,400, rebound or free fall
→ $SOL $110, only recovery counts as a turnaround
Core inflation is cooling, geopolitical panic is being priced in, smart money is buying.
Fear has already been released early. Are you selling along or buying along?
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $SNDK Market Overview
In the past 12 hours, Sandisk followed the storage sector in a collective valuation sell-off, opening at $1537.15, reaching a high of $1539.10, a low of $1464.43, and currently priced at $1487.33, down 5.97%; the 12-hour turnover reached $13.104 billion, with significantly increased trading volume, concentrated selling pressure released, and volatility stronger than the broader market. The storage sector as a whole weakened, with Micron and SK Hynix also retreating simultaneously, showing clear sector-wide selling characteristics.
Multidimensional Market Analysis
1. Capital Aspect
Large sell orders were concentrated at the opening stage, with short-term profit-taking exiting the market. Institutional funds showed increased divergence, hedge funds reduced holdings in AI storage hardware targets, and passive funds lacked sufficient support. The $14 billion buyback plan has yet to form effective buying to hedge, with on-site trading mainly a battle of existing holdings, highlighting short-term capital flight.
2. Technical Aspect
Price effectively broke below short-term moving averages, with a short-term bearish trend. The first resistance above is in the $1530–1540 range, with strong resistance at $1580; key support below is at $1464 (intraday low), and if effectively broken, the next support is expected around $1430. RSI has fallen into a weak zone, indicating a short-term adjustment structure; volume must increase to reclaim the $1500 level to repair the short-term pattern.
3. Fundamental Logic
The company’s Q4 revenue, EPS, and gross margin significantly exceeded expectations, with 8 long-term agreements locking in a guaranteed revenue floor of $93.9 billion; however, the market worries about a weak guidance for this quarter and expectations of a peak and decline in gross margin. The core of this round of decline is not fundamental deterioration but a slowdown in the market’s second-order growth momentum and industry new capacity expectations suppressing storage cycle valuations. The mid-to-long-term AI data center storage demand logic remains intact, but short-term valuations are highly sensitive to expectation changes.
4. Sector and Macro Aspect
The storage sector has become the epicenter of this round of tech stock adjustments, with market concerns about a future reversal in storage supply-demand dynamics. U.S. stocks are undergoing high-level portfolio adjustments, with funds flowing out of AI hardware upstream and into AI application software. U.S. Treasury yields are oscillating at high levels, high-valuation growth stocks continue to face pressure, and macro interest rate expectations amplify sector volatility.
5. Market Sentiment Summary
The past 12 hours have seen a volume-driven pullback in the storage sector, with short-term bears dominating. Mid-to-long-term AI storage demand and NAND tight-balance logic have not been completely broken, but short-term profit expectations have diverged, and valuations have entered a risk release phase. Key points to watch going forward: the effectiveness of the $1464 support level, overall sentiment in the storage sector, U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations, and institutional expectations for the storage cycle. #OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注 Big drop → rebound → small drop → surge, every time rushing to short before the rebound is complete, too impatient, position too heavy! PUMP spot price dropped about 14.3% in 24 hours, with the perpetual funding rate currently reported at +0.005%. OKX spot price at 8:41 Beijing time is $0.004871, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $10.22 million. The next funding rate settlement is at 12:00, and the current figure may still change.
The complete hourly candle at 6:00 had a trading volume of about $1.52 million, 3.6 times that of 5:00, with the price falling from $0.005106 to $0.004999. At 7:00, it closed again at $0.004971. The 8:00 candle, not yet closed, has touched $0.004859, setting a new low for these three hours. My judgment is that there is not enough evidence to confirm a bottom yet.
The most easily misread is the funding rate. A positive value does not prove that bulls are still adding positions, nor can it be taken alone as a reversal signal. I am more focused on whether the next complete hourly candle can reclaim $0.004999 and whether the trading volume can exceed about $408,000 at 7:00; if both occur simultaneously, I will reassess the bearish bias.
$PUMP ETH: Short liquidations reached $569 million, yet some are still increasing their short positions
An intriguing phenomenon: ETH is currently at 2425.72, down 4.08%, but the long-short ratio shows 82% of traders are shorting. In the past 24 hours, short liquidations hit $569 million, 4.2 times that of long liquidations.
What changed? The price dropped from 2497 to 2411, with 82% of accounts betting on further declines, but shorts have been massively liquidated. The funding rate remains positive (0.00217%), meaning shorts are still paying to hold positions.
Why is this noteworthy? A long-short ratio of 82:18 signals an extremely crowded short position, which in such a structure could actually fuel a price rebound. However, the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 5.3%, indicating macro pressure is not favoring the bulls.
Which observation is more supported? Currently, it looks more like a passive short covering phase after a crowded short, rather than the start of a trend down. Around 2411 is short-term support, and above 2490 is a dense short liquidation zone.
Next focus: October 14 CPI. Will the 82% short positions be waiting for a breakout or a second wave of short squeeze? $ETH ENA 24h -15.7% clinging to the low point
Standard Chartered Bank will custody Ripple stablecoins in Dubai and support direct trading. Checked $ENA, 0.204 USDT, 24h -15.7%. These moves by external institutions have nothing to do with it.
24h high 0.2475 USDT, low 0.2026 USDT. The current price is almost sticking to the low point, sliding down from the high and hasn't recovered yet.
Single-day amplitude 18.5%, total daily turnover 9.19 million USDT. The range for the day is indeed quite large, with significant market activity.
7-day -14.3%, roughly the same drop as today, basically caused by this fall. The contract rate has reached -0.0085%, shorts are paying longs.
Looking horizontally at related coins, $SOL 24h -6.3%, $ZEC 24h -10.8%. Both are going down, but their pullbacks are not as deep as this one.
Reminder to the community: the price is now dead clinging to the low point, the rate has turned negative, so keep some margin when watching the market, don’t rush to catch the fall just because it’s dropping a lot. ⚔️ What is the core driving force behind the surge and sustained high level of U.S. Treasury yields? What is the impact on the prices of interest-free assets like Bitcoin and gold?
Currently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 5.24%, and the 30-year is around 5.60%.
Whether yields continue to rise depends in the short term on Wednesday's U.S. CPI data, but medium-term pressure remains.
The core consists of four driving factors, intertwined like a rope.
First: AI giants are "grabbing money" in the bond market.
Mega cloud providers are aggressively issuing bonds this year to finance AI infrastructure. Goldman Sachs predicts that AI-related bond issuance could reach $420 billion next year.
The key is: investors buying these corporate bonds will sell Treasury futures to hedge interest rate risk. Each sale pushes Treasury yields higher.
Second: The fiscal deficit shows no signs of braking.
For fiscal year 2026, the U.S. deficit is about $2 trillion, exceeding 6% of GDP.
The national debt is approaching $39 trillion.
The Treasury's bond issuance calendar is fully packed.
With too much supply, yields can only go up.
Third: High oil prices keep inflation expectations elevated.
Middle East conflicts have pushed Brent crude above $104.
Core inflation remains stuck near 3%, well above the 2% target.
As a result, the market does not believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon.
Fourth: Term premium is soaring, with the market demanding higher risk compensation.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium has surged to a 12-year high.CPI hasn't been released yet, but prices have already settled.
$BTC is reported at 83406, $ETH at 2550, $SOL at 111.
What does this price level mean: staying flat, waiting for the number on the 14th.
Bloomberg's expectation is overall inflation going up, core inflation going down.
A common misunderstanding: core going down does not mean less pressure.
It just means oil prices haven't seeped into other items yet.
The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.36%, the 30-year is the highest since 2002.
With interest rates still high, risk assets can't lift their heads.
The market gives only a 17% chance of a rate hike in October, but 71.6% in December.
I originally thought inflation easing would bring relief, but it doesn't.
The premise for relief is yields bowing first.
Without that premise, sideways movement will continue.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $BTC $ETH $CORE core circulation dropped from 71.46% the day before yesterday back to 70.45%. I just want to know where the coins released daily before went? The more they release, the less there is. This is really sophisticated play. My brain is a bit short-circuited now, I really can't figure it out. Does anyone know, brothers?BTC Liquidations: $586 million long positions wiped out in 24 hours
In the past 24 hours, a total of $672 million was liquidated across the network, with $586 million in long positions liquidated, accounting for 87%. 144,000 people were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation occurring on Binance BTCUSDT, valued at $9.65 million.
What changed? The price dropped from 82,738 to 81,211, a decline of 1.49%, but the long-to-short account ratio was as high as 87%:13%—almost everyone was long.
Why is this noteworthy? This is not a short squeeze; it's a long squeeze caused by the longs themselves. 87% of people bet long in the same direction, yet the price moved opposite by 1.49%. The funding rate is still positive (0.00217%), indicating that the remaining traders are still paying fees to hold their positions and have not given up.
Which observation is more supported? Currently, it looks more like a passive deleveraging phase for leveraged longs rather than the start of a trend-driven short.
What to watch next: October 14 CPI data. Those still holding are either waiting for relief or bracing for a second wave of liquidations? $BTC $xQQQ Market Overview
In the past 12 hours, the global equity markets have shown structural divergence, with the three major U.S. stock indices moving unevenly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at 51632, reached a high of 51886, a low of 51574, and is currently at 51850.55, up 0.38%; the S&P 500 opened at 7818, peaked at 7824, bottomed at 7792, and is currently at 7807.24, down 0.06%; the Nasdaq Composite opened at 27360, hit a high of 27394, a low of 27186, and is currently at 27245.90, down 0.44%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.67%, led by declines in storage and optical communication hardware sectors, with significant pullbacks in SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix; AI software leaders Meta and Microsoft bucked the trend and strengthened, with Microsoft's market value returning to $4 trillion.
International markets: European stock indices fluctuated slightly; Japanese and South Korean markets were weak; the U.S. dollar index rose 0.37% to 102.59, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged up; crude oil strengthened supported by geopolitical expectations. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell slightly by 0.38%, with overall volatility less than that of the U.S. tech mainline.
Multidimensional Market Analysis
1. Capital Flows
Capital shows clear rotation characteristics, with hedge funds reducing holdings in AI hardware and storage chips while increasing positions in defensive sectors and AI application leaders. Overall market turnover remains moderate, with Nasdaq volume expansion mainly due to hardware sector sell-offs. The VIX fear index rose slightly, indicating mild risk aversion without systemic panic. Institutional focus: concerns about the capital expenditure ceiling for AI hardware are intensifying, with funds shifting from upstream computing hardware to downstream applications.
2. Technical Analysis
The Dow holds above short-term moving averages, maintaining a high-level consolidation range, with resistance at 52100 and support at 51570; the S&P 500 oscillates at high levels, resistance at 7824, support at 7790; the Nasdaq has fallen below short-term moving averages, showing short-term weakness, resistance at 27390, key support at 27180, with the next support at 26920 if broken effectively. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has broken down short-term, retreating for several consecutive days, indicating a weakening sector trend.
3. Sector Structure
Sector divergence is the core of this market phase. Negative factors concentrate in AI hardware, storage, and optical modules, with industry executives warning that AI infrastructure expansion may face financing constraints, suppressing hardware valuations; AI application software, energy, utilities, and consumer defensive sectors show resilience. Meta surged over 3%, Apple and Microsoft closed higher; Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon declined. The storage sector continues valuation cuts, linked to previous corrections in crypto market storage tokens.
4. Macro and News
The market is entering the U.S. Q3 earnings pre-season, with raised expectations for profitability thresholds. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, continuously pressuring high-valuation hardware growth stocks. Microsoft announced plans for the next-generation self-developed Maia 300 chip, benefiting software valuations; semiconductor executives warned of financing risks in AI expansion, triggering hardware sector declines. No major Fed official speeches are expected short-term; macro focus remains on upcoming earnings data and U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations.
5. Market Sentiment Summary
The past 12 hours represent a high-level structural rotation market, with limited index volatility but clear internal sector strength and weakness divergence. The Dow is relatively strong, while the Nasdaq is weakened by hardware drag, not a full bear market but a capital rebalancing. The medium- to long-term AI theme in U.S. stocks remains intact, but the high-valuation hardware sector is entering a risk release phase. Key points to watch: the effectiveness of Nasdaq support at 27180, earnings realization from the first batch of companies, changes in U.S. Treasury yields, and whether the storage sector decline spreads. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Just switched the software to the background, and it suddenly plunged down. Is it playing hide and seek with me? When the market was just smashed in the early session, $DOT bounced back weakly with low trading volume, and no one was there to catch it going up.
I saw strong resistance above, continued to short around 1.2523, with the only advice: don't chase longs, wait until it runs out of steam. As a result, the price dropped all the way from 1.2523 to 1.1271, short position +500.27%, nailed the rhythm, really satisfying.
Closed 80% first, take profits when you should, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it bounces back, don't give the profits back.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich often leads to zero.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify you immediately. Let's see when the new structure emerges.
$DOGE $XRP 📊$BTC current price $81,408, I still hold a long position opened at $83,030, currently at a floating loss. The funding rate is still positive, longs are still paying, and with open interest decreasing, the sentiment isn't good. I'm leaning bearish this round, looking for an opportunity to short. A) If the price rebounds to $82,859 but fails to hold above it, and then breaks below the $80,166 support, the downtrend will continue, targeting the $79,896-$80,400 liquidity zone; if it holds above $82,859, this bearish view becomes invalid. B) If it stabilizes around $80,166 first and then holds above $82,859 as support, expect a rebound to $83,172 or even $83,515; breaking below $80,400 invalidates this. The $83,515 level has been tested 16 times with 8 times holding as resistance, so there's significant pressure above. Plan: take half profits at $80,400, move the stop loss of the remaining position to the cost price. Next, will it continue to drop or first consolidate and recover? #OKXTraderVoices BTC: 87% of people are long, yet the price dropped 1.49%
An extreme signal: The BTC order book long-short account ratio reached 87%:13%, with almost everyone betting on a rise. But in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $672 million, of which $586 million were long liquidations, accounting for a high 87%.
What changed? The price fell from 82,738 to 81,211, a drop of 1.49%, yet the funding rate remains positive (0.00217%)—the bulls are still paying to hold their positions.
Why is this noteworthy? Retail positions are extremely crowded on the long side, but the price is falling instead of rising. This indicates that active buying is continuously being absorbed, and selling pressure is real. The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 5.3%, and a stronger dollar is suppressing risk assets; the macro environment is not supporting the bulls.
Which observation is more supported? In the short term, it looks more like a passive deleveraging phase after long crowding, rather than active shorting. Buying interest starts to gather below 82,000, but resistance at 83,400 remains unbroken.
Next focus: October 14 CPI. With 87% of long positions, will they dare to hold through this data? $BTC 1. Survival comes first
2. Everything ultimately is a game of emotions
3. Greed prevails, proving you are driven more by greed than by fear
4. Fear makes you want to escape, but sometimes you have to take risks
5. Good money management creates wealth
6. Large funds are not for placing big bets
7. Start from the expectation of loss
8. Your wealth will come from your focus
9. When hesitating, confused, and unable to decide, please refer to the first point.Let me tell you, last night's market had me slapping my thigh. BTC touched 84,250 overnight, just about a hundred dollars short of the 84,355 line, then suddenly got pushed back to 81,636, a swing of over 2,600 dollars. Even more intense was the liquidation: yesterday I said there was only 65.54 million left, no juice to squeeze, but today I woke up to 348 million, longs and shorts both taking hits—talk about a quick slap in the face. Here's the conclusion first. BTC current price 81,782, down about 2.3% in 24 hours; ETH is worse, currently 2,449, down 3.4%, just lost the 2,500 it had regained in a day. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached 348 million USD, longs 195 million, shorts 152 million—yesterday it was 65.54 million, today it's more than 5 times that. The core reason is one sentence: oil prices surged overnight to 107 USD combined with tomorrow night's CPI release, the market got slapped on both sides, and leverage on both ends got cleaned out. Why this movement? Two things combined. The first is technical: BTC surged overnight, some shorts around 84,000 got squeezed out, price pushed up to 84,250—just about a hundred dollars short of the 84,355 Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level. Then sell orders piled up: this line hasn't been crossed since early October, all orders stacked here, price bounces back as soon as it touches. The second is news: Zelensky accused Russia of stillThere are two teachers in the crypto circle, recommended to jointly apply for the Nobel Prize in Economics.
Peter Schiff: Bitcoin is doomed sooner or later.
Michael Saylor: Bitcoin represents the future.
When Bitcoin rises, the bullish teacher is right.
When Bitcoin falls, the bearish teacher is right.
When Bitcoin is sideways, both sides are waiting for the market to prove themselves right.
The most amazing thing is that the market can repeatedly slap their faces, but the teachers' faith will never be liquidated.
I suggest that in the future, whenever any crypto influencer predicts a price, they should also write:
Under what circumstances would you consider your judgment wrong?
Otherwise, this is not financial analysis.
This is two different sects competing for the authority to interpret finance. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
CPI and PPI are about to be released, and the interest rate hike expectations face a critical test, with BTC's short-term trend being highly sensitive.
The US September CPI will be announced on October 14 (Wednesday) at 08:30 ET (20:30 Beijing time), followed by the PPI on the 15th (Thursday) at the same time. The market expects the headline CPI year-on-year to be about 3.6%-3.7% (previous value 3.4%), month-on-month 0.6%; core CPI year-on-year about 2.5%, month-on-month 0.2%. PPI month-on-month is expected to be around 0.5%.
The impact path on BTC is clear: inflation data → interest rate hike expectations → real yields and the dollar → risk appetite. Core data is key. If core CPI/PPI is below expectations (especially core CPI month-on-month ≤0.2%), it will reduce the probability of further rate hikes, real yields and the dollar will fall back, risk assets will get a breather, and BTC is expected to test the $85,000-$87,000 range. If core data is hotter, it will strengthen the "higher for longer" narrative, even increasing the probability of a rate hike in October, yields and the dollar will strengthen, BTC support at $82,500 may be lost, potentially dropping to $80,000 or even lower. If data meets expectations, bulls and bears will hedge, most likely maintaining a range-bound oscillation, but volatility will significantly increase. August 13: 💥💥💥💥💥 Today's main token analysis!
1. $BTC This morning, it has further dropped from the early report's $82,400 to about $81,500, down about 2.65% in 24 hours, with a low near $81,200. Binance BTC OI is about 93,200 contracts, Funding remains around +0.0063%, indicating that although this round of decline has cleared some positions, the long leverage has not been fully washed out. The previous short-term support at $82,200 has failed, now looking again at $80,000–$81,000.
2. ETH and $SOL continue to be significantly weaker than BTC. ETH is about $2,432 this morning, down about 4.2% in 24 hours; SOL about $104.6, down nearly 6%. ETH/BTC has fallen below 0.03, indicating that funds are still actively reducing Alt Beta. Currently, there is no condition supporting a full alt season; without BTC stabilizing first, alt rebounds are prioritized as trades rather than trends.
3. $HYPE has dropped to about $80.9 this morning, down about 6.7% in 24 hours, with a low near $80.45, the first time truly approaching the low area we've been watching for several days. More notably, Funding has turned negative, OI is about 4.18 million contracts, the structure is much more comfortable than above $90. The $79–$81 range can be the first observation zone, $76–$78 is more comfortable, but do not rush when BTC continues to break down. 🎯 SETUP FACEOFF
$RAVE: support 0.1629 | resistance 0.1818
$PUMP: support 0.004866 | resistance 0.006036
Verdict: $RAVE is pressing closer to resistance (13% of its range). Breakout or rejection—which setup is cleaner?
$RAVE $PUMP
#crypto
⚠️ NFA — manage risk and DYOR.Last night's breakout was falsified. BTC peaked at 84352, then crashed directly in the latter half of the night, currently around 81900, down over 2% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 81800. ETH dropped 4% to 2430, SOL fell 7% to 104, with strong coins experiencing the harshest catch-up declines. As mentioned yesterday, if it doesn't reclaim above 83500, treat it as a false breakout. The market voted with its feet in the latter half of the night; those chasing at 84000 were left hanging again. This is the significance of not entering before confirmation. Now the market has returned to a familiar script: the 82500 to 83500 range hasn't broken out but rather pulled back after a false breakout upwards. This pattern leans bearish in the short term because funds chasing highs are trapped above, and rebounds to 83000-83500 will first face selling pressure from those trying to break even. But there's no need to panic. Watch two levels: first, 81000, near last week's lower consolidation boundary; if volume shrinks and it holds, it's just a pullback. Second, 80000 to 80400, previous lows and a secondary buying zone; as long as this area doesn't break down effectively, the double bottom structure is even more solid. The real warning is if volume surges to break below 80000 and fails to recover, meaning the 80400 spike wasn't the bottom, and the next target is 78000. In terms of operations, hold your spot positions without adding or reducing; the buying discipline remains unchanged. Buy blindly near 80000 is not advised; wait for volume to shrink and stabilize, and confirm support before manually entering. Don't rush to bottom-fish in futures; catching falling knives and chasing highs are equally dangerous during a downtrend. Before the US stock market opens today, first see if 81000 holds; then at night, observe the attitude around 80000. Staying put is the best move for now. Near 2460 on October 13, BTC2 short by Qingcang Kong, defend at 2500, target 2405/2360
For those wanting to go long, wait for stabilization near 2400 before entering, defend at 2350, target 2460/2500.
BTC2 has been continuously falling in the short term, current price 2423 still weak, 2460-2500 is resistance above, first watch for support near 2405, if broken, continue to look for downside space.
Strong USD, high oil prices, combined with Middle East shipping risks and US CPI on Wednesday, any news changes could accelerate the market at any time.
9 years trading experience, do not chase sharp drops, look for positions on rebounds.
Direction is important, but risk control must be in place. $ETH $ZEC $W #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Microsoft plans to build 1 million AI chips on its own. Does this have anything to do with the crypto world?
First question: Whose turf is it taking?
NVIDIA. Microsoft doesn’t want to keep paying tolls to Huang (NVIDIA’s CEO), so developing its own chips means cooking its own meal.
Second question: What does this have to do with the crypto market?
Honestly, not much direct connection. But AI narratives are one of the engines driving this market cycle, and Microsoft doubling down shows the computing power arms race hasn’t stopped—the story continues.
Last question: Should short-term traders panic?
No need. This news doesn’t directly impact crypto prices; it’s more background noise for sentiment.
What really matters is where the money flows, not how many nanometers the chips use.
To be fair, everyone wants to get on the AI train, but whether crypto tokens can rise with it depends on whether the funds agree.
Don’t just rush in when you see the word “AI”—first see if the market gives you the green light.
#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ #阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点 $NVDA 🔥 BTC + ETH + SOL: Positive news materializes, so why is buying momentum still lagging?
🟠 BTC: Reported at $83,712, up 0.69% in 24 hours. $85,000 remains a key resistance; only a volume-backed breakout and stabilization above it can open up further upside potential. If it falls below $80,000, watch out for a pullback to $78,000.
🔵 ETH: Reported at $2,535, up 0.98%, slightly stronger than BTC in the short term. $2,600 is a critical watershed; after breaking through, focus on $2,700. If the rally is capped, see if effective support forms around $2,450.
🟣 SOL: Reported at $111, up 0.56%, currently mainly following the rebound. The sustainability of funds remains to be verified; no need to rush chasing gains before a clear breakout of resistance.
📊 Core judgment: XRP-related compliance narratives attract attention, but market buying has not fully followed through, indicating funds remain cautious. This looks more like a mild recovery rather than a trend reversal.
🎯 Trading approach: Before CPI and PPI releases, focus on BTC at $85,000 and ETH at $2,600. Look for volume-backed breakouts to continue, and consider positioning after pullbacks stabilize. Don’t rush to front-run; waiting for market signals is more important.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The recent market pullback is not caused by a single event. There is no new incremental information from macro or industry perspectives; it looks more like existing funds are actively deleveraging themselves. Once liquidity expectations become unclear, high Beta assets are sold off first. ETH's decline is greater than BTC's, and the risk appetite contraction is already reflected in the market. Without new narratives to support it, early profit-taking and high-leverage positions tend to trigger chain reductions, so prices can only seek more solid transaction support downward.
BTC is currently stuck below $82,000, which is a key battleground. The $80,000 level below is a psychological integer barrier; a decisive break below it could open the way to test $78,000. The $85,000 level above is short-term resistance; only by regaining and holding above it can we say the correction is over and a new strength phase begins.
ETH is at $2,435, down 2.14% in 24 hours, weaker than BTC, and the ETH/BTC ratio continues to decline. The next key support below is $2,400; losing it would increase the risk of further decline. The resistance above is $2,600; do not lightly talk about a reversal before reclaiming this level.
HYPE is at $80, down 4.66% in 24 hours, with a decline significantly larger than mainstream assets. This coin has thin liquidity and is clearly sentiment-driven, with high rebound elasticity but also amplified losses when falling. Chasing highs carries high risk, so positions must be strictly controlled.
A decline without new narratives tests position management the most. BTC holding $80,000 is a prerequisite to discuss a rebound; breaking below it means reducing risk exposure accordingly.
$ETH $BTC $HYPE Who understands, family? I woke up and it felt like the sky fell 💔
Long position opened at 2686.31, woke up to it dropping straight down to 2431.34.
This is the worst loss I've had since entering the market, lying in bed for half a day unable to recover.
But don't panic yet, first steady the mindset, endure slowly, there will be a day of recovery. #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Crude oil prices surged to 107, and the entire crypto market shifted from a structural rally to indiscriminate decline 😂, so let's defend first.
1. The three major macro obstacles are now hard to resolve: the 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.70%, a new high since 2002; oil prices are close to $110; $BTC ETF saw nearly $400 million net outflow in October.
I originally thought BTC would fluctuate between 82,000 and 81,000 yesterday, but with a risk-free yield at 5.7%, it directly broke below 82,000.
2. Even the so-called "monster coins" that occasionally rose last week have mostly undergone significant pullbacks. For example, last week's monster coin trio $STRK /MAGIC/ $NEAR all collectively faced heavy selling today.
Moreover, these monster coins are dropping much harder than mainstream coins, which is normal. I just said yesterday they were heavily speculated on, and the cooling off starts from the most crowded places.
However, I was quite surprised they dropped today; I thought the hype would last a few more days since I expected the market to trend upward with fluctuations this week.
CPI data is about to be released, so I’ll wait for the data before deciding. If it breaks below 80,000 now, I’ll buy some more at the bottom.SOL的24小时跌幅已经比较明显，但比跌了多少更需要弄清楚的是：现在的价格，究竟处在这段波动的什么位置？ 截至北京时间2026年10月13日08:31，欧易现货SOL/USDT最新成交价为103.82 USDT，滚动24小时下跌约6.69%，同期最高价113.4 USDT，最低价103.05 USDT。 把这几个数字放在一起看，能发现一个很直观的现象：最新价格已经靠近24小时低点，距离高点则明显更远。 这意味着什么？先别急着判断方向。 1️⃣ 跌幅告诉你变化，位置告诉你处境 很多人看行情，习惯先看涨跌幅。 看到下跌约6.69%，第一反应可能是跌得不少了，接下来是不是该反弹？ 但跌幅本身并不能回答这个问题。 24小时涨跌幅描述的是最新价格相对滚动24小时前参考价格的变化，而最高价、最低价反映的是这段时间内实际成交价格到达过的两端。 它们回答的不是同一个问题。 SOL目前的103.82 USDT更接近103.05 USDT，而不是113.4 USDT。这说明在当前观察窗口里，价格仍处于相对偏低的位置。 不过，接近低点不等于低点已经守住，更不意味着下跌空间已经消失。 2️⃣ 现价低于小时收盘STRK 4h, current price 0.08695
Resistance at 0.09709, support at 0.08249
After a previous surge, it has continued to decline; the price has fallen below all short-term EMAs and is in a correction channel, weakening along with the broader market. A rebound that holds above the 0.09709 resistance level is needed to have a chance to reverse the short-term downtrend; if it breaks below the 0.08249 support, further decline is expected.
News: The market is re-evaluating the Starknet ecosystem, discussing its L1 transformation expectations and narrative shortcomings. Coupled with this round of broad market sell-off, funds are fleeing to avoid risk.
$BTC $ZEC $W
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ The cooked duck flew away, and I even lost a handful of rice. Staring at the market, I really want to give myself a couple of hits—why can't I ever take profits when I'm in the green?
$BTC current price 82,480, down 1.4%. It touched 84,200 in the early morning, my account briefly turned positive, and I was planning to push a bit more before exiting. Hesitated for a few seconds, then a big bearish candle smashed it down to 82,300. The breakeven line at 83,800 turned from underfoot to a ceiling. Profit turned into loss, all with just one candle from the main force.
$SOL current price 110.8, down 2.3%. Watching it slide down from 116, I thought it could rebound, but it only bounced halfway. I placed an order at 112.5, now it's just above 110, dropping decisively in a single day. Thought I was getting a bargain, but actually caught a flying knife. The big players seem to be watching my small position closely; every time I buy, it crashes.
$ETH current price 2,515, down 0.5%. Ethereum still has the old problem: it never misses a drop but always plays dead on the rise. It touched 2,560 then softened back down. I added two lots, just breathing along with the market. I've been worn down with no fight left, up or down, just going with the flow.
In the end, greed and slow hands—these two are what the market punishes. Next time I profit, I'll pocket half first and push the rest to breakeven. Don't let the meat at your mouth fly away again.
Just personal venting, not investment advice.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Good morning everyone, I originally wanted to post earlier, but around 7 o'clock, the market continued to drop, so I decided to wait until the market stabilizes a bit before posting.
1. BTC/USDT Perpetual/$BTC
BTC continues to fall toward our target price.
Yesterday I predicted there would be a second wave of rise to get closer to the upper trendline, but the price fell back.
It's okay, during this time, I didn't hold any long or short BTC positions because the space is limited.
So let's wait and see how the price performs around 80000; here you can try to go long with a stop loss at 79500.
If it breaks down, we will continue to see 78000.
For those who need to build spot positions, you can continue to do so now, but as you know, don't fully load your spot positions at once; leave 20%-30% and continue to add gradually later.
2. ETH/USDT Perpetual $ETH
I already reduced half of my ETH position last night.
Because I expected BTC to test upward a bit, driving ETH to rebound slightly, then fall.
This is actually fine; ETH has already reached my target take-profit level this morning, so I took full profit.
Of course, I will continue to watch the price reaction at 2400; I might go long again in the next couple of days, and this time the position can be a bit heavier.
3. SOL/USDT Perpetual $SOL
Trading SOL is cost-inefficient; consider buying spot instead!The $40 billion buyback stopped just like that.
Last night, storage stocks collectively plummeted. Micron fell below 1000, SanDisk dropped 6 points, Hynix fell 3 points, Philadelphia Semiconductor dropped over 2 points, and Bitcoin was smashed down to 81247.
The answer came this morning: Samsung and SK Hynix have prematurely terminated the largest buyback plan in history, $40 billion, no more buying.
What is a buyback? It's the foundation of this round of storage market. When a company buys its own shares, it tells the market, "My stock is cheap, I'll support it." Now that support is withdrawn, it's scarier than any bad news.
There's an even more fatal detail. ChangXin Memory announced a breakthrough in 4F² architecture, leading the Korean giants by two years in cell architecture. On one hand, buybacks stop; on the other, the pursuers are closing in. The picture of the Korean duo looks very bad. Without the foundation, no matter how beautiful the building is, it will shake.
I shorted SNDK and was taught a lesson by the bullish candle at 1791. Since then, I only watch one thing in storage: how much expectation is priced in. Now not only is the expectation fully priced in, the foundation is also being pulled out. The good earnings report is true, the buyback stop is true, both are true, but the price only listens to the latter.
I've been watching the storage sector for over a month, and for the first time, I say, don't touch it in the short term. It's not that I am bearish, but after the foundation is pulled out, it needs to be rebuilt, and it can't be rushed.
What do you think, is the buyback termination the exhaustion of good news, or is the cycle peaking?
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $SNDK $BTC $ETH Got up at 6:30 in the morning, checked $ZEC, price was 1208, which hit yesterday's psychological buy target, so I went all in with 6x leverage on the sub-account; while brushing my teeth, I glanced again and got a notification that $BTC dropped below 82000, and $ZEC was already showing an unrealized loss of 150 dollars; no indicators to back it up, just a subjective judgment, since other coins would be dragged down by BTC, I decisively cut losses and cleared the position, then immediately opened a half-size short position, with an unrealized profit of 298 dollars. Because I had to go to work and couldn't keep watching the market, I took profit and closed the position, now holding no positions.Good morning brothers! Yesterday's signal already rebounded to resistance, so be aware that it will retest again. If it can't break above 84500, it will only be a regular rebound without a direct breakout. Currently, it looks like it will perfectly complete this second retest. The key for the second retest is still the 80000 support. Holding 80K will continue the consolidation; breaking below here will lead to a regular correction. The target for the regular correction is 75000-78000. Reaching here is still a buying opportunity. For the short term, focus on the strength of the second retest. It hasn't ended yet. This is just my personal opinion for reference!On Monday, the US stock market opened (Columbus Day, bond market closed), overall value rotation overshadowed the surface calm of the indices. The Dow can rise, the Nasdaq is dragged down by tech, and the S&P is almost flat, indicating that funds are avoiding high valuations and seeking certainty rather than a full exit. The Dow Jones closed at 51850.55, up 195 points, +0.38%. The S&P 500 closed at 7807.24, down 4 points, -0.06%, just shy of the October 6 high. The Nasdaq closed at 27245.90, down 120 points, -0.44%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.45%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 2.7%, with the tech sector being the main drag. Eight sectors closed higher, led by energy up about 1.4%-1.5%, with consumer staples and communication services also strong, and financials seeing some buying ahead of bank earnings. Trading volume was noticeably light, reflecting the holiday effect. The market was focused on two things. First, the Middle East risk premium. The Houthi forces attacked Riyadh airport over the weekend and affected oil tankers, pushing Brent crude to around $106.65, up about 1.8%, with energy stocks following suit. Second, AI hardware gave back gains at high levels. Optical and storage-related names continued to digest previously overly optimistic expectations; Lumentum fell nearly 10% in one day, after surging due to "capacity sold through 2029," the market is now questioning delivery and return pace. Software was relatively better; Salesforce rose about 2% after a Bank of America upgrade. The aftermath of OpenAI's revenue discrepancy (about $50 billion versus previously higher figures) is still ongoing, and funds are becoming more selective about pure AI infrastructure stories.🚨 BTC + ETH + SOL: Weekly correction risk remains, bottom signals not yet confirmed!
🟠 BTC: The current weak structure has not yet reversed. If key supports continue to fail, the correction may extend further. $72,000 can be used as an observation target for a downside scenario, but it should not be considered a certainty before price confirmation. In the short term, focus on whether the rebound can reclaim the resistance zone.
🔵 ETH: Weaker trend compared to BTC. If it fails to reclaim $2,500 continuously, further downside risk remains. $2,200 is a potential support area worth watching, but volume and capital flow need to be considered.
🟣 SOL: Higher volatility risk under a weak pattern. $80 can be used as an observation point for an extreme correction scenario, but it is not set in stone. If BTC stabilizes, SOL may also see a rapid recovery.
📊 Core judgment: Weekly correction does not mean the market will inevitably continue to fall; a rebound may occur after a sharp drop. The most important thing now is to confirm the trend, not to guess the bottom prematurely.
🎯 Trading approach: Shorting at $82,400 is a personal trading plan; the key is to watch the invalidation point and stop-loss arrangement after entry. Better to wait for signals than to ignore rebound risks just because of a bearish view; even with correct directional judgment, position sizing and discipline are still necessary.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Near 82000 for BTC on 10.13, Qingcang defense at 82700, targets 80800/80300. Brothers who missed the entry yesterday still have a chance today.
Those wanting to go long can wait near 80000 for stabilization, defense at 79400, targets 81200/82000.
BTC 1H dropped steadily from 86976, lowest wick at 80344, currently 81422 is just a weak rebound, moving averages in bearish alignment, 82000-82500 is resistance above, 80300 is the immediate key support.
USD strengthening, oil price breaking through $107, combined with Middle East situation and this week's CPI, any slight change in news could accelerate the market again.
9 years trading experience: don’t chase sharp drops, only look for positions on rebounds.
Don’t lose your rhythm just because others are profiting; real opportunities require a plan to seize. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Ethereum surge before rate hike? I don't believe it.
Conclusion straight up: it won't surge.
Looking at volume, it rebounded over 150 points from 2406 to 2564, but 4-hour volume actually shrank, and buying power can't keep up. The 2560-2600 range above is a dense area of trapped positions, combined with the 30-day moving average resistance, every time it approaches it becomes a point for bears to add positions.
The funding situation is worse: BitMine stopped increasing ETH holdings, validators exiting the queue surged from 166,000 to 851,000, and a large amount of staked ETH will unlock in the next two weeks. Supply increases, demand decreases.
The Fed minutes show most officials support continuing rate hikes, liquidity will only tighten further.
So this rebound looks more like handing chips to the bears. My short at 2671 is still open, with a floating profit of 400%. If it surges to 2600, I will add to my position. Short-term support is at 2497, break below and look to 2400.
Surge before rate hike? I don't believe it.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Crypto Morning Express｜10.13
Morning.
$BTC total market cap has climbed back above 4 trillion, rising about 5.6% in the past 24 hours. Around $216 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the last hour, mostly short positions.
Here are a few key points:
1. Binance has compensated users affected by the USDe depeg with $283 million; the previously seen “zero price” in spot was just a display bug, not an actual loss of assets.
2. Fed voting member Harker stated: policy will shift toward tightening, favoring smaller, more frequent rate adjustments.
3. The UK High Court ruled on the Qian Zhimin (Blue Sky Gree) case, applying Chinese law to the recovery of 61,000 BTC, involving about £4.1 billion. Victims are unlikely to receive any subsequent appreciation.
4. The FSB (Financial Stability Board) warned: global stablecoins have yet to face major stress tests, and cross-border regulatory monitoring needs strengthening.
5. HKEX today launched Pando’s second spot SOL ETF, ticker 2831.HK, with a 0.6% management fee, no staking, and no leverage.
On trading, QCP’s view: the options market currently shows a mix of defensive and bullish sentiment. If it can firmly break above 87k, the next target is 94k. There is about $180 million in sell orders near 84,500, with buy support at 82,000.
This week’s main events remain Powell’s speech and the CPI data.ETH crashed 4.2% overnight! $2411 bloodbath nearly $1 billion, who slaughtered the bulls at dawn?
How large was the slaughter?
According to CoinGlass data, $145 million was liquidated across the entire market in the last hour, with longs accounting for as much as 97.5%, while shorts were almost unscathed. In the past 24 hours, ETH single-coin liquidations reached $58.14 million, with longs making up 64%. The $2411 low just broke through the previously mentioned key liquidation zone at $2401 — if it continues to break down, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $553 million.
Triple pressure triggered simultaneously:
① The Middle East powder keg reignites. Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil facilities, Brent crude rose to $107.25, WTI broke through $94, reigniting inflation concerns and causing risk assets to collectively take a hit.
② US Treasury yields hit a 24-year high. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36%, and the 30-year rose to the highest level since 2002, sharply increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
③ ETF outflows for 9 consecutive days. Last week, ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows of $542 million, with BlackRock's ETHA single-week outflow at $477 million, marking the worst record this year. Woke up to find $BTC back at the 81k level again, so it seems my $BTC long position was closed very well, otherwise I would have started losing 450u.
Trading still needs to focus on higher timeframes (starting from 4-hour candles). I opened a Bitcoin long because the 1-hour candle broke above the 120-day moving average, but at that time the 4-hour candle actually showed a sharp top and pullback signal after touching the 120 MA.
In other words, signals from medium and higher timeframes are not aligned. At this point, it's best to pay attention to the higher timeframe, as the medium and lower timeframes have too much noise interference.
Meanwhile, my two short positions on $MAGIC and bome are starting to show floating profits. Bome was shorted from 0.001 down to 0.00077, and it feels like the downside is limited now, considering finding a good opportunity to close it!
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 I monitored 20 on-chain addresses and found a net sell-off of as much as 35 million pons. (Top 20 holdings on-chain, statistics as of September 30, excluding exchanges and pools, etc., up to today). This data looks quite overwhelming!
From the data on October 11, daily transaction fees and protocol revenue decreased by 25.14% and 21.4% respectively compared to the previous day. The data is still too poor; it has to drop.Liquidation countdown: (life extension version).
At 08:26 this morning, waking up, these two positions are still bleeding, and the health bars are even shorter.
SNDK, 50x leverage, estimated liquidation price 1084.4. Margin left is only 9.28U, maintenance margin rate dropped from 692% to 569.82%. There is about 25% room before liquidation, but with 50x leverage, if the price drops another 2%, the system will start the death stare. Yesterday I said the neck was under the guillotine, today the blade is already pressed against the back of the neck.
ZHIPU, 10x leverage, return rate -172.90%, for ZHIPU, a single needle prick to the liquidation price 50.55 is just a thin sheet of glass. 10x leverage on small coins is not investing, it's buying a lottery ticket, and one that you already know you won't win before the draw.
The most outrageous is the account structure. The two long positions of SNDK and ZHIPU are on life support in ICU, and the ETH and BTC longs are also bleeding.
So the liquidation countdown is not a scare tactic. SNDK liquidation price 1084.4, ZHIPU liquidation price 50.55, it looks like there is still distance, but under the triple squeeze of small coins + high leverage + funding rate, a 20% drop in one day is like child's play.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC