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9月CPI详细数据解读，实际数据情况要比目前表面数据可能会更加鹰派！ 当我拆解了BLS 9月CPI数据后，发现数据要比刚才表面数据可能会更加鹰派，核心不是名义CPI 3.7% 而是通过能源、核心商品与核心服务三个层面来判断： 1，能源是9月名义通胀数据保障的核心因素 2，核心商品重新出现价格压力，能源带来的通胀传导问题已经初步显现 3，核心服务业并未降温，反而从0.3%加速到0.4%，这是对Fed最不友好的部分 #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 所以，这份数据意味着9月CPI并非只是能源一次性冲击导致的上涨这么简单，提出能源一次冲击导致名义通胀上涨后，核心商品与核心服务出现上涨，属于能源二次传导 名义通胀月率0.6%其实并不可怕，因为数据中证明了是来自能源价格上涨带来的冲击，属于阶段性或者一次性冲击，市场或者Fed最但系的是通胀二次传统与扩散，而核心商品与核心服务就证明了这个担心，同时核心服务中住房通胀依旧是核心“顽疾” 9月CPI数据公布后，CME 10月与12月加息概率并未有太大变化，但是时隔半小时后的当下，这份详细数据已经充分发酵， 目前10月加息概率从21%I am almost completely not worried that my long position on $BTC will lose money! First, the market indeed dropped about 1500 points as I predicted, and I also added to my position accordingly!
Secondly, I said that when $BTC data is released, the data itself is generally not important; it is used to coordinate liquidity sweeps. So when it first drops, I firmly go long!
Thirdly, Jin10 plus CPI and all sorts of chaotic consultations are aggressively pushing bearish news, like rising government bond yields and bets on rate hikes! In my view, none of that matters; only the market action matters!
The fact is, despite so much bearish news, $BTC did not fall below 82,000, which shows the market does not want it to go down! It's simple, just see if my judgment is right!
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ Draft (CPI reaction, data as of tonight 20:30)
September CPI came in hot across the board: headline 3.7% YoY (vs 3.6% expected), core 2.6% (vs 2.5%), and core MoM stuck at 0.3% instead of cooling to 0.2%. The pass-through question got answered — energy (+20.4% YoY, gasoline +9.1% MoM) is spilling into core, and the December hike trade just got its best argument. BTC is holding $82–83k for now, but the setup changed: the market no longer has to imagine the hike case, it just got the receipt.$BNB looks weak in the short term, 737.22 is already close to today's low. The leverage basically hasn't moved today. Both long and short liquidations are only a few tens of thousands of dollars, almost invisible against the 410 million positions. The bulls haven't been squeezed out, and the shorts haven't been forced to cover. The price is slowly grinding down, with no forced liquidations driving it, nor any new leverage coming in to chase a rebound; the market is just burning through old positions. The fee rate is close to zero, just background noise. The chart shows the high point being raised; only if the previous low is broken will it be considered a breakdown. The price is now just a bit away from the previous low, with the short-position moving averages pressing down from above. This upward structure won't hold for long. I judge the previous low will be broken, followed by a new low. Conditions to turn bullish: retake and hold above 747.5, which means today's high is reclaimed and the bearish outlook is invalidated. Exceeding expectations by 3.7% directly increases the uncertainty of a rate hike in October, gold plummets, government bonds hit new highs, with a chance to see BTC starting with 7$ETH What a real shock! The whale must have had insider information, otherwise how could they have pulled a one-hour breakeven liquidation of long positions!!
September CPI released, year-on-year 3.7% exceeding expectations (expected 3.6%), core even harsher at 2.6% year-on-year (expected 2.5%), month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%).
The main cause is the surge in gasoline prices, but the core is also accelerating, indicating pressure beyond just energy.
After the CPI release, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to around 5.3%, the 2-year yield jumped significantly, and the probability of a rate hike in October doubled from 22% to nearly 40%, hitting risk assets hard.
$BTC is clearly under short-term pressure, having fallen back to around 82.6K.
Rising US Treasury yields plus increasing rate hike expectations are headwinds for crypto and growth stocks; first, watch if the 82k level can hold.
If it breaks, it may further test 80k or even lower.
Gold $XAU and the Nasdaq also face valuation pressure.
In the medium term, if energy prices remain high and the core inflation does not cool down, the Fed’s rate hike path by year-end will be tougher, and risk assets will likely remain weak and volatile.
But if subsequent PCE or employment data soften, the market may reprice to "only one hike."
The key is to watch next week’s data and oil price trends; don’t rush to bottom-fish, wait and see. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $TRUTH The second highest gainer TRUTH, don't rush to short it, this coin has no spot market. Without spot market, it's easy to have pump-and-dump coins, like the former river, lab, rave, beat, whose highs were 50 to 100 times their lows. If you keep shorting using free fuel, it can keep rocketing up. In extreme cases, I suspect it could surge from the lowest point around 0.008 to 5 to 7 times higher at 0.047～0.055. If you really want to short: please use light positions, low leverage, keep plenty of margin reserved, start at a price point of at least 0.0312 or above, light positions, light positions, light positions, test the waters carefully. This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any advice. It's purely my own analysis and hypothesis, to be verified by facts.The US Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $24.8 million on October 13, ending a streak of ten consecutive trading days of net outflows. The full daily report from Farside shows a net outflow of $85.4 million the previous day, so this time the capital flow finally turned positive.
The inflow was uneven: the Grayscale fund with the code ETH saw an inflow of $16.7 million, Fidelity's FETH had an inflow of $8.1 million, and the other listed funds all recorded zero. Here, ETH is the fund code, not an additional on-chain transfer.
For the Ethereum market, the change is that net subscriptions of these funds have again exceeded net redemptions, temporarily halting the continuous withdrawal of funds through the fund channel for one day. Subscriptions and redemptions affect the asset size held by the funds, but these flows do not represent the total daily buy and sell volume of ETH on exchanges, nor can they be directly converted into spot buy orders at the same moment.
In the previous ten trading days, the total outflow was about $783 million, and this one-day inflow only recovers about 3.2%. Next, it remains to be seen whether net inflows can continue and expand to more funds to better judge whether the withdrawal pressure is continuously easing.
Source and chart: Farside US Ethereum ETF daily report, amounts in USD; verified after 21:00 Beijing time on 10/14. The row for 10/14 is still incomplete and should not be interpreted as zero flow. $ETH Totally lost! The harshest part of this CPI is not that the overall number exceeded expectations, but that core inflation rose simultaneously. The market had always used energy price hikes as an excuse, thinking core inflation was fine. Now that this data is out, that excuse is completely torn apart. Inflation is not just driven by oil prices; the comprehensive pressure remains, and expectations for rate cuts have been slapped down.
First, look at $BTC. Once the data came out, rate cut expectations were slapped in the face, so $BTC is definitely under short-term pressure. But don’t panic, institutional base holdings are still there, and long-term holders on-chain are still accumulating. If panic selling comes out, it might actually give whales a chance to buy cheap. Hold the base firmly, don’t rush to bottom-fish in the short term.
Next, look at $ETH. ETF funds have been flowing out all along, and when $BTC weakens, $ETH falls faster than anyone. Don’t expect it to strengthen independently in the short term; it will bear the selling pressure along with the market.
Finally, look at $XAUT gold. Core inflation exceeding expectations is actually a double-edged sword for gold. In the short term, it’s suppressed by rate hike expectations and a stronger dollar, which hurts it. But the fact that inflation can’t be contained itself proves that gold’s long-term logic is intact. Allocation demand is still coming in, central banks are still buying, and if it falls, someone will step in.
Brothers, this data is here to kill expectations. Hold your spot base firmly, unload all short-term leverage, and wait for this wave of panic to subside before making moves. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 @OKX星球 Brothers, the September CPI is finally out! The big coin $BTC is bearish again. In the afternoon warm-up, I judged that the overall CPI might be pushed up by energy, but the core month-on-month might drop to 0.2%. The result was an overall year-on-year of 3.7%, higher than some market expectations of 3.6%; core year-on-year 2.6%, month-on-month 0.3%, both exceeding expectations. The energy line was predicted correctly, but the core is indeed more stubborn than I expected; this time my core judgment was too optimistic. Gasoline prices in September rose 9.1% month-on-month, and energy costs pushed overall inflation up. This is not just a problem of rising oil prices. Excluding food and energy, the core month-on-month still maintained 0.3%, and housing costs also rose 0.4%. Employment has cooled down, but prices have not dropped as the market expected, making it harder for the Fed to confidently stop raising rates. The core CPI exceeding expectations may cause the market to readjust the probability of further rate hikes, with the dollar and US Treasury yields continuing to strengthen, which is obviously not good news for the big coin. So currently, my judgment is short-term bearish, leaning towards weak consolidation first, but we still need to see how the market digests it. After the data release, the big coin once returned to around 82700; next, let's see if it can stand back above 83000. If pressure continues, I will watch the previous low near 80400.What’s really worth watching today among mainstream coins is BTC, which once dropped to 81,000 intraday, then reclaimed around 83,600, while ETH remains only at 2,500, and SOL fell further to around 106. BTC is starting to find support below, but high Beta coins continue to underperform, indicating that funds are currently flowing defensively rather than showing a full return to risk appetite.
#BTC fighting to reclaim 84,000
#High Beta continues to underperform
$BTC is currently around 83,600, with a low today of 81,000 and a high of 84,200. The 81,000–82,000 range has become the most critical support zone; above that, 84,000–84,200 is the first resistance, and only after firmly holding above that should we look toward 85,000. It’s good that BTC could pull back from the lows today, but it still needs to confirm a breakout above the highs.
$ETH is currently about 2,504, down roughly 1.5% in 24 hours. The 2,480–2,500 range remains the first line of defense; on the upside, watch 2,530 first, and only after firmly holding above 2,550 can it be considered to have shaken off weakness.
$SOL is currently about 106.6, down nearly 4% in 24 hours. The 105–106 range is the first support, with 109–110 turning back into resistance. Only after holding above 110 should we look toward 112–115.
This lineup: BTC waits for confirmation at 84,000, ETH waits for 2,550, SOL waits for 110. BTC’s pullback is just the first step; whether high Beta coins can stop lagging behind will determine the quality of the rebound. $BTC
The US September CPI data has just been released, with the overall year-on-year increase rising to 3.7% (previous value 3.4%), slightly above the market expectation of 3.6%; core CPI rose to 2.6% (previous value 2.4%), also higher than the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month increase was 0.6%, one of the larger rises in recent months.
The main driver came from energy: gasoline prices surged 9.1% in a single month, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase, with the energy component's year-on-year increase reaching 20.4%. However, core inflation also rose simultaneously, indicating that price pressures are not solely driven by oil prices; other items such as housing also contributed.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and now with inflation data accelerating again, the market is adjusting its pricing of the subsequent policy path. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.86%, reflecting that investors are beginning to reassess the possibility that "inflation stickiness may force the Fed to raise rates again."
In simple terms: energy pushed up the overall data, core inflation is also rising, still some distance from the Fed's 2% target, and discussions about further policy tightening are back on the table. The data has been confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations. September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than previous market expectations, and the core CPI excluding energy and food was also higher than estimated, indicating inflation stickiness stronger than the market's earlier optimistic judgment. Rising energy prices pushed up overall CPI, while the strength in core components shows that service-side inflation is not falling as expected, not just a short-term disturbance from oil prices.
After the data release, the market raised the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening in the short term. Previously, the market was betting on inflation cooling continuously and the tightening cycle ending; this data directly revised expectations, heating up hawkish pricing.
Simply put: inflation is not out of control again, but the downward pace has slowed, leaving the Fed the option to continue raising rates. Future policies will rely more on data and will not easily close the door on further rate hikes.
Transmission to the crypto market is a short-term negative. Rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets; high-beta assets like BTC and ETH are prone to pressure, with short-term volatility increasing. But this is a re-pricing of expectations, not a direct trend reversal; subsequent developments depend on officials' speeches, PCE, and other inflation indicators for verification.
Key follow-ups: latest statements from Fed officials, the probability of a rate hike at the December meeting, and whether core service inflation remains persistently stubborn. If multiple inflation indicators continue to strengthen, tightening expectations will keep suppressing risk assets; if it is just a single-month pulse, after digestion, the market is likely to return to its original rhythm. $BTC $ETH $ZEC All three chains are generating revenue, but prices are not rising. Because the market is starting to distinguish one thing: who is making money, and whose pockets the money is going into.
$BTC: On-chain fees and block rewards go to miners, not holders. Miners sell coins to pay electricity bills, which is continuous selling pressure. BTC holders do not share network income, only scarcity. So no matter how active the on-chain activity is, it has no direct relation to the coin price. BTC's value comes from consensus, not cash flow.
$ETH: Mainnet gas fees are largely diverted to L2s, weakening value capture. EIP-1559 burns part of the fees, but the burn amount decreases as L2s prosper. Stakers earn issuance and priority fees, but issuance is inflationary, diluting non-stakers. ETH's cash flow story is becoming increasingly strained.
$SOL: Fees and MEV income go to validators and stakers. Inflation subsidizes validators, diluting holders. The more active the ecosystem, the more validators earn, but ordinary holders get nothing except price. SOL's economic model essentially uses inflation to buy security.
On-chain revenue does not equal token value. Only tokens that can capture revenue have a foundation for long-term appreciation. BTC relies on consensus, ETH is struggling, SOL relies on inflation. Understand whether what you hold is an asset or fuel working for others. - Four data points exceeded expectations, but the real signal is not in the overall year-on-year 3.7%, but in the core month-on-month holding steady at 0.3% for the second consecutive month — this is the second refutation of the consensus on "inflation steadily falling." - The stickiness of the core, via the upward revision of the real interest rate path, directly raises the discount rate for risk assets. Assets with no cash flow and duration approaching infinity bear the heaviest valuation compression; this is the mechanism reason why crypto is more resilient under similar shocks. - The price structure has not been broken: after the data release, BTC instantly dropped about a thousand dollars, then was bought back. The negative news failed to break through, which is the most noteworthy fact in the current market. --- **1. What is overlooked is the sub-items** The overall year-on-year 3.7% is higher than the expected 3.6%, and the month-on-month 0.6% meets expectations. It looks like a report pushed up by energy with a decent structure — gasoline was the main contributor to last month's increase, which is a volatile item. The problem lies in the core sub-items. Core month-on-month is 0.3%, while the market originally expected a drop to 0.2%; core year-on-year is 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, price pressure shows no signs of easing and has been rising at the same pace for two consecutive months. Single-month fluctuations can be ignored, but two consecutive months in the same direction constitute evidence. This report does not provide new arguments for "inflation sustainably returning to target." **2. Transmission relies on discount rates, not sentiment** The damage from core stickiness is not in the current rate hike probability, but in the entire interest rate path being revised upward. The expectation of nominal rate decline has been postponed 【2026/10/14 East 8 Zone 20:58】Bitcoin crashed? Let me tell you the truth!
1. First, let's interpret the released CPI data: overall inflation exceeded expectations, so there was a drop after the data release. This was the first reaction of retail investors and automated trading programs, but this drop was driven by sentiment, with no substantial new negative factors, so it won't last long; once the market calms down, it will realize that the real factor deciding whether the Fed raises rates is core inflation, which is completely within expectations and not out of control. The market already thinks the probability of a rate hike in October is very low. As long as core inflation doesn't exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike won't rise. Those who shorted before will quickly close their positions and buy back when they see no new negative factors. Closing short positions is itself buying, which will pull the price back up, even turning positive and closing higher. There's a saying in trading: the market uses headlines to crash prices, but uses the substance to set prices!
2. In terms of operations, the bullish strategy updated yesterday and during the day is still valid. Don't be fooled by the surface data you see. Remember, core inflation is what needs attention. Although the current technical aspect is under some pressure, the resistance will be broken soon. This week, I firmly believe it will reach the top of the daily cycle box around 86500 again.【2026/10/14 East 8 Zone 20:52】Bitcoin crashed? Let me tell you the truth!
1. First, let's interpret the released CPI data: overall inflation exceeded expectations, so there was a drop after the data release. This was the first reaction of retail investors and automated trading programs, but this drop was driven by sentiment, with no substantial new negative factors, so it won't last long; once the market calms down, it will realize that the real factor deciding whether the Fed raises interest rates is core inflation, which is completely within expectations and not out of control. The market already thinks the probability of a rate hike in October is very low. As long as core inflation doesn't exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike won't rise. Those who shorted before will quickly close their positions and buy back when they see no new negative factors. Closing short positions is itself buying, which will pull the price back, even turning it positive and closing higher. There's a saying in the trading market: the market crashes on headlines but prices are set by the substance!
2. In terms of operations, the bullish strategy updated yesterday and during the day remains valid. Don't be fooled by the surface data you see. Remember, core inflation is what matters. Although the current technical aspect is under some pressure, the resistance will be broken soon. This week, I firmly believe it will reach the top of the daily cycle box around 86500 again.In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $461 million, with short positions liquidated at $282 million and long positions at $178 million. The upper short positions have been mostly cleared, but there is still a liquidation gap around the 84500 area. ADA dropped 4% in a single day, with whales dumping over 110 million tokens, suppressing some altcoin sentiment. The arrest of an OpenAI engineer for hiding recording devices has limited impact on mainstream coins, so no need to overreact in the short term. BTC current price is 82894, with hourly moving averages in a bearish alignment, MACD momentum weakening, and the market showing weakness.
The phone vibrates in my pocket again, the order reminders are relentless, after delivering this order I still have to grab two more. Long position liquidations around 82500 are heavily stacked; the main force will likely first dip to clear leverage, then reverse to test short position liquidity at 84500. Operationally, do not chase shorts; buy long positions in batches on pullbacks between 82500 and 82100, with stop loss below 81700 and take profit between 84500 and 84800. If 81700 is broken with volume, the probability of a double spike increases, and you must exit unconditionally without holding positions.
$BTC
#Meta发布MuseWonder，股价涨超3%
@OKX星球 CPI exploded, all lines exceeded expectations. The rate cut matter can be put on hold for now.
September data, not a single number is reassuring:
Overall CPI annual rate 3.7%, expected 3.6%, highest since May, gasoline contributed more than half of the increase.
Core CPI annual rate 2.6%, expected 2.5%.
Core CPI monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%. Entertainment, used cars, air tickets, medical care, clothing, almost all are rising. This is not a one-time disturbance, but a widespread warming.
Market reaction is very direct: bets on rate hikes increase, expectations of three more hikes before the end of 2027 are heating up. Rate cuts? Don't expect them in the short term.
Not very friendly to the crypto circle. Originally, the bet was "oil prices push up overall, core remains moderate," now the core has also exploded, the story can't continue. US Treasury yields will most likely continue to rise, non-yielding assets continue to be pressured.
81500-80500 will most likely be tested tonight. The 84400-85200 resistance, now it's an iron lid.
ETH, SOL, ZEC, these high Beta ones, when they fall, they fall even harder. ETFs are already flowing out, macro adds another blow, making rebounds very difficult.
Don't rush to bottom-fish, nor chase shorts. Wait 15 to 30 minutes, see where the funds stand after the US stock market opens. The real direction will only be clear after 21:30.
Tonight, patience is more valuable than courage.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 【2026/10/14 East 8 Zone 20:54】Bitcoin crashed? Let me tell you the truth!
1. First, let's interpret the released CPI data: overall inflation exceeded expectations, so there was a drop after the data release. This was the first reaction of retail investors and automated trading programs, but this drop was driven by sentiment, with no substantial new negative factors, so it won't last long; once the market calms down, it will realize that the real factor deciding whether the Fed raises interest rates is core inflation, which is completely within expectations and not out of control. The market already thinks the probability of a rate hike in October is very low. As long as core inflation doesn't exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike won't rise. Those who shorted before will quickly close their positions and buy back when they see no new negative factors. Closing short positions is itself buying, which will pull the price back, even turning it positive and closing higher. There's a saying in the trading market: the market uses headlines to crash prices, but uses fundamentals to set prices!
2. In terms of operations, the bullish strategy updated yesterday and during the day is still valid. Don't be fooled by the surface data you see. Remember, core inflation is what needs attention. Although the current technical aspect is under some pressure, the resistance will be broken soon. This week, I firmly believe it will reach the top of the daily cycle box around 86500 again.$TRUTH bull power is weakening, bears dominate the market??
Brothers, from the truth market perspective, after the highest surge to 0.0213, it is obvious that the bulls lack momentum and start to stagnate at a high level, indicating there is still strong selling pressure above. Without new capital support, it is difficult to rise. From on-chain funds, there is also continuous outflow, so I have already positioned short orders around 0.0202, targeting 0.0182-0.0175, with a stop loss at 0.023.
【The above views are for personal reference only and do not constitute investment advice】
#美光暴跌后：是底部还是半山腰？ September CPI just released: overall year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), month-on-month 0.6%; core year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%), month-on-month 0.3%. Gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the monthly increase.
Hotter than expected. Overall pushed up by oil prices, core inflation did not cool down and was even higher than expected. This set of data hardly supports the logic of "immediate easing".
The market originally expected a 75%-80% probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October. Now with core inflation exceeding expectations, rate hike expectations may reheat. Officials had disagreements before; some think another hike is needed within the year. Tonight's data has amplified the divergence.
For BTC, in the short term, it will follow this trend. Core inflation is strong, rate hike expectations are heating up, BTC is under pressure, with support between 81500 and 82000 below. Only if the data is digested and yields fall will there be a chance to rebound and test 83000 to 84000. The direction is not yet chosen, so volatility will be relatively large.
$BTC
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Tonight decides life or death! CPI inflation data is about to be released, will Bitcoin crash again? Hurry and take a look.
1. Although the situation tonight looks a bit bleak because oil prices in September were extremely high, there is a very high probability that this CPI will be higher than the last one! However, there is actually a huge turning point here, have you noticed it?
2. That is, the market may have already priced in this situation in advance! Because the previous CPI was 3.4%, and now the market expectation has reached 3.6%, and both the coin price and stock price have already fallen in advance. So this time it is not necessarily bearish, because the CPI data must be greater than this high expectation of 3.6% to be bearish, not just higher than 3.4%.
3. If the CPI is 3.5%, although it is still an increase compared to the previous value, it is below expectations, so it will still be bullish. Therefore, there is still a turning point tonight. I think if the CPI meets or is below expectations, it will be beneficial for the coin price to rise, and this probability is not small.
4. Personally, I think around 80,000 is very likely the bottom of this correction, so you can confidently buy in. Even if it breaks below, it won’t be by much. I analyzed this 80,000 support two weeks ago on the show, first a rebound at 82,500, then another rebound at 80,500, and now it looks fine.
5. As for the big picture, I am very confident that the big bull market in the crypto world has really arrived! The current month of volatility is purely just digesting the previous profits from the rise, and after consolidation, it will continue to go up.Brothers, the CPI data has just been released, and it has exceeded expectations across the board. This is not good news.
Inflation hasn't retreated, and the rate hike sword is raised again.
September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and the previous value of 3.4%. Month-on-month is 0.6%, the largest increase in 5 months, with gasoline alone contributing more than half of the monthly increase.
The real killer is the core CPI.
Core year-on-year is 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%. Core month-on-month is 0.3%, unchanged from August, completely failing to cool down as the market expected 0.2%. The energy index soared 20.4% year-on-year, and gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month. Inflation not only hasn't retreated but is spreading from energy to core areas.
What does this mean?
Core month-on-month at 0.3% shows inflation stickiness is stubborn. The market's previous pricing of a “pause in rate hikes in October” now needs to be questioned again. CME data showed the probability of a rate hike in October was only 21%, but after this data release, rate hike bets will quickly revive. The US dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and funds will flee from risk assets. The opportunity cost of zero-yield assets is rising.
Polymarket prediction markets show the probability of a Fed rate hike in December has risen to 80%. This CPI data will push that number even higher.
The market is already waiting for direction.
BTC has fallen below 83,000, currently at 82,865. The key watershed is at 83,300. If it can't hold 83,300, supports at 82,500 and 80,000 will be tested in sequence. Only a volume-backed hold above 84,600 can provide a foundation for a rebound continuation. The first 15-minute candlestick high after the data release is key to confirming the trend; don't rush to act on the first pulse after the data is published. Wait for a pullback, wait for confirmation.
ETH is currently around 2,515, with higher volatility sensitivity and usually larger retracements in down phases than BTC. 2,460 is key support; breaking it targets 2,400 and 2,300. The ETH derivatives market has higher leverage density and more extreme concentration of long positions; once it breaks key liquidation zones, the liquidation intensity will be amplified by leverage multiples.
SOL is linked to the broader market; 105 is key support, break it to reduce positions. 115 is resistance; don't chase longs before a volume breakout.
Inflation doesn't die, rate hikes don't stop. On a night when CPI exceeds expectations, cash is worth more than faith.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CPI finalized at an annual rate of 3.7, higher than expected, which is bearish. After Bitcoin plunged to 839, it quickly rebounded to 826. The data still needs time to be digested. If this round of decline stabilizes above 822-820, then the market will see a full-scale bullish counterattack. The reason is simple: today's CPI is a major bearish data point; if it can't push prices down further, they will rise. No need to rush to buy yet; watch if 820 can hold. Of course, those who can't resist can lightly go long around 826 with a small stop loss.I can't speak for other fields, but when it comes to macro data and geopolitics, just listen to the old man—he's at an internationally leading level. You won't suffer losses or be deceived by following him. Maybe some institutions will cut you, maybe some projects will scam you, but the old man will never let you down.
Currently, the CME's probability of a rate hike in October hasn't changed yet, but after the 9:30 opening, the US stock market definitely won't show a good face. Tonight's CPI indeed exceeded expectations, especially the core monthly rate is also poor.
When the nest is destroyed, no egg remains intact. Don't be fooled by the seeming strength of Bitcoin, but as I said, if the US stock market continues to fall and liquidity keeps shrinking, selling assets to cover positions is inevitable. By then, it will be too late to run when the sand and stones fall.
As for why the decline is simple: AI, represented by storage in July, has peaked. The recent rise is just a last flicker of the fish tail. With the midterm elections in November, tensions between the US and Iran, and the holiday season bringing various negative factors, it's normal for big money to rush out early. This data basically confirms that the decline starting last week was smart money exiting early.
Once momentum forms, it can't be reversed in the short term. Whether it's a top or a bottom, you need to give enough time to wait for the pattern and signals before entering again. For now, just rest quietly. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC can't rise anymore, it's not institutions selling
The number 84800 keeps being mentioned.
It is a dividing line, not a target price.
How this number is calculated:
It is the upper boundary of the range; only if it stands above it can a reversal be talked about.
If it can't stand above, the price will keep moving back and forth within the original range.
The difference between past and present:
Institutions' long-term chips haven't moved; what's pressing the market is interest rate expectations.
So it doesn't fall deeply, nor rise happily.
$ETH follows a different logic.
It looks at funds, not chips.
Once 2580 breaks, the entire altcoin market cools down.
$ZEC's rise relies on short covering.
It's not a fundamental strengthening, but sentiment pushing it.
Three coins, three pricing models.
Waiting for a single number to unify the answer is futile.
Stop-loss orders placed above 84800 are going in the wrong direction.
#September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike disagreements to be resolved
#$BTC $ETHCPI results: Clearly hawkish, but not an out-of-control spike!
This data shows: Core month-on-month is actually 0.3%, which is higher than expected, indicating underlying inflation is more stubborn than anticipated.
This is not a "false heat" driven solely by oil prices.
Overall month-on-month at 0.6% meets expectations, suggesting the energy shock was largely priced in by the market; the real negative is the core monthly rate holding at 0.3% and the core annual rate rebounding to 2.6%. A core monthly rate of 0.3% annualized roughly equals 3.7%, clearly above the Fed's 2% target.
At the same time, real income fell by 0.5%, creating a mild stagflation mix of "rising prices and declining purchasing power," which is unfavorable for high-valuation assets.
Impact on the Federal Reserve:
Before the data release, the market mainly bet on the Fed pausing in October and resuming rate hikes in December, with about a 78% chance of no change in October and an 88% chance of a hike in December.
After the data release, October may still pause: a single month at 0.3% is insufficient to force immediate Fed action.
The probability of a December hike has further increased: the continuity of core inflation is the main basis.
Expectations for "higher rates maintained longer" have strengthened.
Discussions of rate cuts are basically postponed unless employment or consumption significantly deteriorate afterward.
Impact on U.S. stocks:
The Nasdaq and growth stocks are somewhat negative because core inflation exceeding expectations will raise real interest rates and valuation discount rates.
The market may experience:
1. Phase one: Nasdaq futures decline, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise. CPI Landing: Liquidity Has Only "Loosened a Bit," Don't Take It as a Bull Market Signal
CPI is the global high-risk asset's barometer, with a clear transmission path:
CPI → US Treasury yields → US dollar → risk appetite → crypto market.
This time, CPI moderately declined, but inflation remains resilient, resulting in a very neutral-to-warm outcome:
✅ No sharp rise beyond expectations → dispelled fears of "another rate hike," US Treasury yields slightly fell, temporarily loosening the tightest string pressing down on crypto;
❌ But also no sharp drop → rate cuts are not on the agenda, and no large-scale easing has arrived. It's only a marginal liquidity recovery, not a flood.
This explains the current market divergence:
- BTC: Benefits from panic relief, acting as the market's ballast, showing resilience but hard to sustain a continuous short squeeze;
- ETH: Weaker, only enough to passively follow gains, lacking strong easing expectations, unable to form an independent rally;
- ZEC and other highly elastic assets: are the biggest beneficiaries of marginal liquidity improvement. With slight risk appetite recovery, short-term speculative funds are willing to gamble on themes and elasticity, producing independent strength.
In short: CPI has removed the immediate crash curse but has not issued a bull market pass to the market.
It is still an oversold recovery rally. If inflation fluctuates again later, US Treasury rates may become volatile anytime, causing intense market swings.
You can trade with the trend but avoid heavy positions chasing highs, and continue to monitor US Treasury yields and subsequent inflation data.别急着站队，清算图不是预言机 你是不是也盯着上下两排清算数字，越看越像在等一个答案？ 过去24小时杠杆仓位重新排布，四个币种的清算区都亮了灯。BTC报83889，上方84705附近约2923万美元空单等着被清算，下方82188约4031万美元多单排着。空头那边离得更近，多头这边人更多，现在选边真的还太早。ETH在2544附近晃，2568和2509分别压着约2279万美元的清算带，离现价太近了，短线很容易被上下插针扫一遍情绪。SOL报111.54，上方113.37有522万美元空单，下方108.39有326万美元多单，上方力量更厚一点。ZEC报1281，上方1306只有76万美元空单，下方1239有92万美元多单，反而下方压力稍大。 我更在意的不是哪边先被扫，而是人群现在的心理状态。很多人嘴上说等确认，手指其实已经放在开仓键上了。FOMO和犹豫同时存在，叙事又有点疲劳，这种时候价格最容易先制造一个假方向，把急躁的人骗进去，再回头收拾真正有耐心的人。 偏多的路径是：BTC先向上刺穿84700，把空头止损点着，如果站稳，短线风险偏好会回暖，ETH和SOL容易跟着弹，山寨情绪也会松一口气。偏空$FIL has summarized several points about the upcoming FIL halving and the market's lack of reaction. Everyone is welcome to add comments:
1. Linear halving reduces incremental supply, but there is a large stock of existing tokens.
2. Heavy lock-up, with significant selling pressure at key levels.
3. Miners and the foundation continue to release tokens, causing severe inflation.
4. Demand cannot keep up; most positive news is just empty promises.
5. Long-term decline severely damages retail investor confidence.
6. Lack of fresh capital to take over positions.通胀涨到3.7%，油价还在高位，AI公司却继续疯狂建设数据中心。美联储这盘棋，光靠加息恐怕没那么容易赢。 今晚美国9月CPI公布： 实际3.7%，预期3.6%，前值3.4%。 通胀重新升温，美国2年期国债收益率随即上涨3.83个基点，报4.831%。 最值得琢磨的是，这次通胀有相当一部分来自供给端。 霍尔木兹海峡的能源供应风险、关税、半导体需求和AI数据中心扩张，都可能推高成本。 利率可以压制消费，却不能直接增加石油供应，更不能一夜之间建出更多芯片工厂。 🔮 今晚全球资金与Web3观察 🟠 BTC｜防守观察 关注83,000美元附近的承接，以及美元、美债收益率是否继续同步走强。 若价格跌破支撑且OI增加，重点评估新增空头风险。 🟠 SOL｜高弹性资产 宏观压力增强时，SOL可能比BTC出现更大波动。 短线关注4小时趋势、资金费率与多头清算分布。没有新增买盘确认，暂不把反弹当成趋势恢复。 🟠 LINK｜基础设施赛道 链上金融和AI代理叙事仍值得长期跟踪，但技术发展不等于代币立即上涨。 观察成交量、OI和相对BTC的强弱变化。 🟠 RENDER｜AI算力叙事 数据中心建设带来真实At 8:30 tonight, everyone's eyes will be fixed on the same number.
But before that number lands, the funding rates have already "spoken" in advance.
📊 Comparison of funding rate data from two major platforms
Platform A (cumulative funding rates):
▪ $BTC: 0.0039%
▪ $ETH: 0.0082%
▪ $SOL: 0.0163%
Platform B (current funding rates):
▪ $BTC: 0.0035% (slightly positive)
▪ $ETH: -0.0043% (rate turned negative)
▪ $SOL: 0.0033% (slightly positive)
Let's start with $BTC. Both platforms show a slight positive value, indicating that longs are still paying to hold positions in the perpetual contract market, but the strength is very weak. This is actually quite reasonable—$BTC has been oscillating around $83,000 for several days, with the $82,500 support repeatedly tested but not broken, and it has never managed to break above $84,000. Neither bulls nor bears dare to bet heavily, so the funding rate naturally remains in this "lukewarm" state. Simply put, $BTC is waiting for a signal.
$ETH is different. Platform B's current rate has turned negative, meaning shorts have started paying longs, and short demand is rising. But it's worth noting that Platform A's cumulative rate is still a positive 0.0082%, showing a directional divergence between the two platforms. This actually reflects a subtle market psychology: some are betting on $ETH catching up (after all, ETH's recent performance has lagged behind $BTC), while others are betting it will continue to weaken. $ETH's struggle around $2,500 is pressured by continuous net outflows from spot ETFs, and institutional interest in $ETH is clearly weaker than in $BTC. This divergence itself is a signal—$ETH's short-term directional sense is the weakest and most vulnerable to being caught off guard by CPI data.
$SOL's situation is even more interesting. The cumulative rate of 0.0163% indicates that bullish sentiment was once very high, but the current rate is only 0.0033%, a significant decline. To translate: those who were long before have started to pull back. $SOL has fallen from previous highs to around $107, and bulls lack the courage to add positions, choosing to wait and see.
Looking at these three coins together, the picture is very clear—$BTC's bulls and bears are balanced and waiting for data, $ETH's bulls and bears are in a tug of war, and $SOL's bulls are retreating.
Now for the bigger picture. The US September CPI will be released tonight, with market expectations for year-over-year growth rising from 3.4% to 3.7%, and core CPI expected between 2.4% and 2.5%. This is the most critical inflation data before the Fed's late October meeting. Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $679 million, Ethereum ETFs net outflows of $542 million, so the capital flow itself is weak. Meanwhile, the US dollar index is near an 18-month high, and the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.2%, putting overall pressure on risk assets.
Weak funding rates, ETF capital outflows, and high macro uncertainty—these three factors combined help you understand why $BTC's funding rate is only slightly positive. The market isn't unwilling to move; it's afraid to move.
Finally, a few practical words.
Funding rates are a thermometer of market sentiment, not a buy or sell signal. The negative turn in $ETH's rate is worth watching, but data from a single platform is insufficient to conclude a trend—the divergence between the two platforms precisely shows the market has not reached consensus. $SOL's high cumulative rate but real-time decline indicates the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is rapidly decreasing.
Volatility will definitely increase around the CPI release tonight. Funding rate data can help you judge which side market sentiment leans toward, but the real direction is still decided by that number itself.
Don't corner yourself before the data comes out. Waiting for the signal is more important than guessing the direction.
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $ETH $BTC $SOL #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Wangchai's main holder is hiding their true intentions because today's drop is definitely not caused by the top addresses selling off. So what exactly are they doing? Let's take a look at the data!
2026.10.14 #Wangchai Top 40 Token Holder Data Changes
New entries in top 40: 3 people total, 1 newly opened position, 1 transferred in, 1 normal increase
Exited top 40: 3 people total, all 3 reduced positions but did not fully exit
Increased positions in top 40: 1 person total
Reduced positions in top 40: 6 people total
$Wangchai Daily Key Summary:
Among the 3 new entries into the top 40, only 1 increased their position. The 3 who exited the top 40 all reduced their holdings but did not fully exit. The number of people increasing or decreasing positions in the top 40 is not particularly large. Although it looks like more people reduced positions, the actual amount reduced is very small. Earlier, we saw a significant drop in the token price, but after statistics, it turns out the top 40 addresses alone are not enough to cause a 30% price drop. Therefore, the drop must have been caused by addresses outside the top 40. Since the addresses causing the token price drop are not in the top 40, the market changes from the top 40 perspective are minimal, which also proves that the main holder is hiding their true intentions. Here, everyone can only wrestle with their own thoughts. That's about all the data. See you next time! Core 2.6% blew past expectations, tonight I'm betting on the bears to win 🔥
The results are out. Overall 3.7% met expectations, core 2.6% smashed through the 2.5% forecast, and the month-on-month 0.3% also exceeded 0.2%. In short: hawkish.
Before the release: BTC 83257, ETH 2499, everyone playing dead waiting for the results, positions down 3%.
After the release: US stock futures plunged immediately, 2-year yield surged to 4.91%, 10-year at 5.29%. BTC dropped to 82797, ETH stayed flat around 2500. Crypto is more resilient than stocks but not by much. Nasdaq futures down 0.6%, worse than BTC.
My battle plan:
First, the probability of a rate hike returning to the table on October 28 is 22%. Don’t underestimate this 22%, it was basically zero before the release. December hike is 88%, a done deal. If October really hikes, crypto will take another hit.
Second, BTC at 82797 is a critical level. 82730 is today’s low; if broken, look for 82000. The core data beating expectations is bearish and needs at least 24 hours to digest.
Third, ETH is playing dead at 2500, but ETFs have had outflows for 10 consecutive days, fundamentals weaker than BTC. The rebound will start with BTC, ETH will lag.
So tonight I’m betting on the bears winning. Short BTC at 82800-83000, stop loss at 83500, target 82000. Short ETH at 2510-2530, stop loss 2560, target 2450.
If you disagree, show your positions in the comments. Tomorrow at this time, we’ll see who’s right.刚出来的数据： 美国9月CPI同比 3.7%（预期3.6/3.7，前值3.4），核心CPI同比 2.6%（前值2.4）。整体被能源顶高，核心也没像“里子凉”那样软，反而比前值高了一档。 放大饼身上翻译一遍： 数据偏鹰。美元和美债收益率容易先冲，大饼这种零息风险资产，第一反应大概率是先被杀一下。 短期三种走法： - 秒插针打穿83,000 → 洗掉止损盘，只要不有效收在82,900下，就是“卖事实”回手掏，后面再冲83,800-84,200。 - 直接反弹但过不了中轨83,411 → 弱，说明资金不敢接，等二次下探。 - 核心没崩、美元冲高回落 → 大饼最容易走V，83K守住后看84K、前高84,146。 说人话： 这数据不是“利好大饼”，但也不是灭顶利空。先跌是情绪，核心没失控就有回手。83K是今晚命门，中轨是强弱线，84,146是多头脸面。 别在公布瞬间追空追多，等15分钟收线： 守83K→低吸看84K；破82,900且美元继续硬→撤，等81K再谈。 15分钟收线定乾坤，我待会再发一帖，结合实盘结构细拆多空局势，盯盘的接着蹲。$BTC $ETH #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待$BTC can't rise anymore, it's not institutions selling
The number 84800 is repeatedly mentioned.
It is a dividing line, not a target price.
How this number is calculated:
It is the upper boundary of the range; only if it stands above can we talk about a reversal.
If it can't stand above, the price will keep moving back and forth within the original range.
The difference between past and present:
Institutions' long-term chips haven't moved; what's pressing the market is interest rate expectations.
So it doesn't fall deeply, nor rise happily.
$ETH follows a different logic.
It looks at funds, not chips.
Once 2580 breaks, the entire altcoin market cools down.
$ZEC's rise relies on short covering.
It's not a fundamental improvement, but sentiment pushing it.
Three coins, three pricing models.
Waiting for a single number to unify the answer is futile.
Stop-loss orders placed above 84800 are going in the wrong direction.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
#$BTC $ETH CPI data has not yet been released, but $BTC has already dropped near 81,000, $ETH has simultaneously fallen over 4%, and $ZEC has even experienced double-digit declines — this is not an on-chain accident, but a typical case of macro expectations front-running. The market is voting with real money: it fears the data more than waiting for it. What is truly worth pondering is not the magnitude of the drop itself, but the timing of the decline. Before inflation data is published, funds usually do not exit on a large scale unless some traders have already bet in advance that CPI or PPI will exceed expectations. Once inflation readings are hotter than expected, the Fed tightening narrative will reclaim the headlines, and liquidity-sensitive crypto assets will naturally be the first to be hit. $BTC and $ETH, as high Beta risk assets, have historically been the first to be reduced when liquidity expectations shift, and this time is no exception. However, most people may have underestimated one signal: this round of selling occurred before the data release, not after. This means the market has already partially priced in the bad news. If CPI ultimately meets expectations or is slightly lower, short covering could trigger a rapid rebound; conversely, if the data is indeed hotter, the 81,000 and 2,400 levels will no longer be supports but amplifiers — breaking below them will sharply increase volatility. In other words, the current key is not about directional judgment, but whether these two price levels can hold. Structurally, if $BTC holds 81,000 and $ETH holds 2,400, it is more likely a position rotation and leverage cleansing rather than a trend reversal; if these levels fail, short-term volatility willWhat are retail investors doing while institutions are quietly accumulating? They are getting liquidated. This is the harshest cycle in this market.
Mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Creek Capital, recently shared a perspective worth every coin holder's attention.
He used the Metcalfe's Law to estimate the value of BTC: the long-term reasonable anchor point is $105,000.
What is Metcalfe's Law? In one sentence: the value of a network is proportional to the square of its number of users. Phones, the internet, and WeChat all follow this rule—the more users, the value grows exponentially, not linearly.
BTC is essentially a network: the more holding addresses and users it has, the higher its value should be. According to Yusko's model, the current "fair price" of BTC is around $105,000.
He also gave an assessment: the market has entered an "accumulation mode"—both highs and lows are gradually rising, and large funds are quietly building positions.$ZEC
Current price 1225.04, 24h +3.22%
Up three points, but I don't dare to catch this K-bar.
Looking at the last 48 hours split into three segments:
10-12 22:00 surged to 1297.7
10-13 08:00 dropped to 1122.58
A whole night down -13.5%
Now back to 1225.04,
this drop has recovered 58.5%—
Just looking at the numbers, the rebound is already more than halfway.
But the latest 1H candle has changed:
Opened at 1242, closed at 1225.04, a bearish candle
Volume 74.59 million U, previous candle only 16.82 million
Increased 4.4 times.
High volume bearish close, and closed 1.0% below MA20 (1237.57)
This is not a continuation, it's a rebound pressed down halfway.
The position is not cheap either:
Up to 1297.7 is 5.9%
Down to 1122.58 is 8.4%
Stuck in the upper middle, neither side is profitable.
I only keep one condition:
If 1H retraces to 1237.57 but fails to close above
→ Short, stop loss 1286, target 1122.58
R:R 2.4 : 1
Conversely, if 1H closes above 1237.57 and does not fall back
→ Cancel the short immediately, look at 1285.54 instead
Neither side has played out yet, so wait and see.
(Not investment advice, profit and loss at your own risk)September CPI released, basically this inflation data is above expectations, and core inflation also showed a mild rebound
This means the inflation issue in September is not simply a hawkish data caused by energy-driven inflation. The good news is that inflation has not completely spiraled out of control. Regarding the probability of rate hikes, it will not affect the chance of no rate hike in October but will increase the probability of a rate hike in December
According to CME, the probability of a rate hike in December rose from 70% before the data to 71%, not yet reaching 80%, but it has entered the preliminary pricing range
Combined with the continued rebound and rise in international energy prices, short-term inflation pressure increases, which is quite negative for risk markets, so attention should be paid to the pressure on risk markets
Next, let's interpret the detailed situation of this inflation data! #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Has anyone noticed this characteristic?
Usually, in the two minutes before important data is released,
the market generally moves in the opposite direction of the actual data expectations.
For example, tonight's Bitcoin or gold,
in the 2 minutes before the core CPI release,
both Bitcoin and gold show a small 5-minute bullish candle holding the top,
seeming to indicate a major breakout,
but once the real data is released,
it immediately reverses,
a long upper wick leaves the retail traders who chased the highs stranded at the peak.
There are many similar events like this,
any trader who trades based on event logic will notice this pattern.
It basically happens frequently.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 CPI Released: The worst-case scenario, all hawkish.
Overall CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6% and previous 3.4%; month-on-month 0.6% meets expectations. The overall high is driven by gasoline, which was priced in early—the real risk lies in the core: month-on-month 0.3%, above the expected 0.2%, year-on-year 2.6% also exceeds expectations.
This is exactly the threshold repeatedly warned about before. Bank of America said: core 0.2% means no change in October, 0.3% reignites rate hike bets. Now the decision has been made.
The market immediately voted no: S&P 500 futures erased gains, spot gold dropped 1% to $4119, silver fell 2%, traders instantly increased bets on October rate hikes—while before the release, the probability of no change was still 78.4%.
Crypto market is temporarily restrained: $BTC is at $83,292, 24h +0.21%, daily range 81,033–84,168, no breakout yet. But the background is weak—ETF net outflow last week was 681 million, 84,340 is the average cost line for 1.45 million coins, break-even sell orders are blocking the top.
Conclusion: Energy price increases have confirmed transmission to the core; the claim that "inflation is just an energy disturbance" no longer holds. This is not about the rate hike itself, but a repricing of the expectation that "more hikes are needed"—the 5% risk-free rate hangs there, zero-coupon assets suffer the most.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $ETH Core CPI surged to 0.3%, BTC, ETH, and ZEC all plunged sharply
At 8:30, the data was released, and BTC, ETH, and ZEC all plunged downward. Many people saw the month-over-month 0.6% and said it met expectations and that the bad news was fully priced in, but the market directly contradicted that; only this one figure met expectations.
Here are the four figures:
Overall CPI annual rate 3.7%, a 5-month high, expected 3.6%, exceeded
Core CPI annual rate 2.6%, a 6-month high, expected 2.5%, exceeded
Core CPI monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%, also exceeded
Only the overall month-over-month 0.6% met expectations
What the market really fears has never been the overall number driven by oil prices, but the core. The core 0.3% exactly hits the "reignited debate" — no chance of a rate cut in October, and the probability of a rate hike in December is still rising.
What’s worse is that bulls had already priced in the "bad news fully priced in" before the data: BTC was boosted by the Houthis, oil prices broke 106, and BTC touched 84000, with many people positioned for a rally. But the core data overheated, the logic was immediately disproved, long positions were trampled, buying on expectations and selling on facts combined with the core exceeding expectations, resulting in a double whammy.
$BTC
84000 didn’t hold, once the data dropped it plunged directly, 82200 is the critical point, breaking it will test 80900 and 80000.
$ETH
2500 was already weak, first target 2450, falling faster than BTC.
$ZEC
Rebounded against the trend to 1250 during the day, but after the data release the gains were wiped out, if 1200 doesn’t hold it will be a sharp drop after a rally.
The first plunge is not the bottom, don’t catch the falling knife 【On the eve of CPI, an ETH whale was liquidated for $69.69 million, then staged a comeback half an hour later】
What changed? In the past 24 hours, ETH long positions were liquidated for $10.45 million, and short positions for $10.13 million, almost symmetrical. But the real explosion was when a certain whale was liquidated for $69.69 million and then returned to the market to open longs again within half an hour.
Why is this noteworthy? This is not retail behavior; it’s a whale immediately overturning the market's "death sentence." This whale still holds 79,000 ETH longs worth $196 million, with new liquidation prices at $2299 and $2286. Shorts thought they had taken out a big player, but the whale added margin and came back with a new position.
Which observation does this support more? The short squeeze logic in the short term. ETH short liquidations account for 59.8%, and shorts are paying the price. But leverage risk remains concentrated; if the price falls below $2286, the next round of liquidations will be even more intense.
When the CPI data is released, will this whale’s $2299 liquidation line be triggered again? $ETH To analyze the Avalanche ecosystem market, you can continuously track BTC, AVAX, and JOE. BTC controls the overall market cycle rhythm, AVAX represents the capital inflow situation of the Avalanche public chain, and JOE, as the leading DEX within the ecosystem, is a barometer of on-chain liquidity and user activity. The sudden surge of a single token has limited reference value; only by combining all three can the true strength of the ecosystem market be discerned.[At the moment of CPI release, a $70 million whale's long position was "wiped out in one spike"]
What changed? At 20:30, when CPI was announced, BTC instantly spiked down to $76,046. A whale with a $70 million BTC long position was fully liquidated at a liquidation price of $76,308, suffering a loss of $1.6 million.
Why is this noteworthy? This was not a retail stop-loss but a targeted liquidation of a whale-level position. After the spike, BTC quickly rebounded, and the whale immediately reopened a long position at $77,875. Liquidated, but the direction remains unchanged.
Which observation does this support more? Among Binance's 8 largest BTC liquidation pools, 6 are above the current price, with the strength above being 7.7 times that below. The pressure above comes from shorts, not longs.
What to watch next? In the past 24 hours, BTC short liquidations totaled $11.72 million, surpassing long liquidations of $8.38 million. Shorts are being squeezed.
After the whale who was liquidated reopened a long, will the next spike target the shorts' stop-loss levels? $BTC $BTC 现在 82,802 美元，24 小时跌 0.57%，$ETH 2,487 美元，24 小时跌 0.51%。今晚 20:30 的 CPI 落地了：headline 约 3.6%，低于 3.7% 的市场共识，高于 8 月的 3.4%，环比约 +0.6%；core 约 2.5%，符合预期。数据是偏鸽的，价格是偏熊的，这个背离就是今晚要讲的东西。
先把数据说清楚，免得误导。3.6% 这个数字来自发布时的 live tracker 快照，BLS 完整表格还有待核实；core 环比的实际值我还没看到可靠信源，标待核实，不编。但方向是对的：headline 和 core 之间 1.1 个百分点的 gap，几乎全是能源贡献的，这是本轮周期里最宽的一次。翻译一下：通胀是供给侧的，油价推的，加息治不了这个。9 月是第一个完整捕捉到布伦特均价 102-106 美元的月份，炼油和运输的传导有时滞，这个数据捕捉的是传导到位的结果，不是需求过热。
那为什么偏鸽的数据换来下跌？因为 CPI 前多头已经把子弹打完了。过去 24 小时 $BTC 三次去撞 84,000，最高 84,074，亚洲盘还摸过 8Last night’s session was really a rollercoaster. First, it plunged into panic, hitting 81,000 but didn’t break through; then it surged to 84,000 but couldn’t hold. Neither bulls nor bears won, continuing to grind inside the cage.
The news looks lively, but don’t mistake a “warming” for a “reversal.”
Sberbank got approval to conduct crypto trading, launching BTC, ETH, and USDT on December 1st, and the Russian central bank has also included it in the registration list. Back in 2022, they were calling for a total ban, but now the largest bank is testing the waters, so the direction has indeed turned. However, crypto payments are still banned within Russia, and retail investors have an annual purchase limit of only 300,000 rubles. This is more of a mid-term narrative, not short-term pump fuel.
On the Strive side, $208 million worth of warrants were exercised, and last week they bought another 3,311 BTC, bringing total holdings to 32,773 BTC. The trend of listed companies hoarding coins continues, but this is a bottom-building logic, not a short-term signal.
More interestingly, $STX has risen about 50% in four weeks, outperforming BTC and ETH. The logic is that the locked amount in the Bitcoin L2 ecosystem is increasing, with a new round of bonding coming in November, tightening supply and demand. But small-cap tokens rise fast and fall fast, so don’t rush in just because you’re envious.
Volatility may increase around tonight’s CPI release, so don’t stubbornly hold high-leverage positions. Who do you think will pick a direction first after this wave of fluctuations? Let’s discuss in the comments👇
⚠️Personal observation, not investment advice.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Official U.S. data shows that the September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.6% and up from the previous 3.4%. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-over-year, also above the expected 2.5% and the previous 2.4%. Both indicators exceeded expectations and increased from prior values, with overall inflation rising for three consecutive months, moving away from the previous low of 3.4%. Reviewing the historical sequence, the CPI year-over-year dropped from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June, then held steady at 3.4% for July and August, before rising again to 3.7% in September, breaking the previous downward trend. The renewed acceleration in core inflation is particularly noteworthy; price pressures excluding food and energy show that underlying inflation momentum has not faded with the overall decline but has instead re-accumulated over the past two months. The simultaneous above-expectation rise in both overall and core indicators suggests that the previous cooling of inflation relied more on volatile components like energy rather than a fundamental easing on the demand side, adding complexity to the judgment of future policy paths. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解