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💰 Money Printer Daily · Day 2
Which crypto business makes the most money?
* $PUMP — $5.83M cost, $2.17M revenue, 37% retention.
* Papertrade — $3.76M cost, $3.76M revenue, 100% retention.
* Polymarket — $3.53M cost, $540K revenue, 15% retention.
$PUMP remains #1, while Papertrade's costs dropped 36% in one day. $UNI also fell out of yesterday's top five.
Tether and Circle are excluded, despite generating $24.45M daily, as their revenue mainly comes from Treasury yields. $DOGE's "Japan Experiment": A Demystifying Compliance Challenge
The narrative around Dogecoin is quietly shifting. Japanese listed company ReYuu Japan has partnered with Web3 firm abc and the House of Doge under the Dogecoin Foundation in a tripartite strategic cooperation to explore directions such as gold-backed stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and joint funds. This is not another round of community hype but a "practical experiment" bound by compliance constraints.
The uniqueness of the Japanese market lies in the precision of its regulatory framework. JVCEA's "green list" mechanism sets a pre-approval threshold for token listings, and crypto assets are transitioning from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This means that for DOGE to truly enter the Japanese commercial scene, it must first pass compliance checks—an approach completely different from the logic of a single tweet from Musk moving the market.
The division of labor among the partners is also worth noting. abc is responsible for token design and smart contract development, ReYuu Japan handles localized business expansion, and House of Doge provides ecosystem coordination and global networking. ReYuu Japan completed its first batch of DOGE purchases in April 2026, holding approximately 254,000 DOGE in total. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC $ETH US September CPI and core CPI both came in higher than market expectations, inflation has not been suppressed.
With high inflation, the Federal Reserve is even less willing to cut interest rates, and the timing of rate cuts may be delayed.
Cooling rate cut expectations → US Treasury yields tend to rise → risk assets like Bitcoin come under pressure.
Core CPI annual rate 2.6%, expected 2.5%; monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%, all exceeding expectations, signaling inflation rebound.
The market originally bet that the Fed could cut rates earlier, but this data will weaken rate cut expectations!
After the data release, the market has already started betting on three rate hikes next year.In one sentence: The US September CPI lands tonight at 8:30 PM, with three out of four figures exceeding expectations. Overall year-on-year is **3.7%** (expected 3.6%, August 3.4%), core month-on-month is **0.3%** (expected 0.2%, August 0.3%), core year-on-year is 2.6% (expected 2.5%, August 2.4%). Bitcoin dropped from 83,941.7 all the way down to 81,900, currently around 82,000, falling more than 2,000 dollars in 2 hours. Ethereum is worse, dropping from 2,521 to 2,429, currently around 2,434. Comparing with the evening review at 7 PM tonight, where is the difference? Tonight I said the hawkish scenario would be core exceeding expectations, for example month-on-month 0.3%, and it really is 0.3%. The script follows the hawkish path: the core did not cool down, the bet on a rate hike in October jumped from 22% before the release to 40%–49%, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 5.19% to above 5.3%, and the dollar, already the strongest since April, is now even stronger. Non-interest-bearing assets are all getting hit, gold also dropped from 4,153 to 4,117. Why is core exceeding expectations the most critical? Because the part pushed up by oil prices is clear to the Fed—gasoline rose 9.1% in one month, energy rose 5.2%, these are known factors. But the core excludes food and energy, reflecting the real prices: it has not cooled down,#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
This inflation rebound indicates that the decline in US prices has not been smooth, and inflation resilience is stronger than many expect. Funds are quickly reassessing Federal Reserve policies; the originally anticipated timing for rate cuts is being pushed back, and the market sees a higher possibility of a rate hike in October. US Treasury yields are rising, which means risk-free investment returns are increasing, causing funds to withdraw from high-risk assets. In the crypto space, BTC is the first to come under pressure and decline, followed by mid-cap coins like TON and TRX weakening. Small-cap coins like BTW, which rely on hype, experience even more exaggerated volatility and can suddenly plunge when market funds tighten. Objectively, monthly data is only a short-term shock; the Fed’s decisions also consider other indicators like non-farm payrolls and PCE. If economic data cools down later, market expectations for tightening will quickly ease, giving risk assets a chance to recover. The macro environment is constantly fluctuating, so don’t bet on a one-sided rise or fall based on a single CPI report. The $SOL market cap is currently around 64 billion USD, and you need to compare this number with other things to get a sense of its size. Coins are traded by the unit, while market cap is used to compare the size against other assets.
On the global company list, Nvidia's market cap is 5.5 trillion USD, and SOL is just a little over one percent of that. There are more than fifty companies with market caps exceeding 300 billion USD, and SOL doesn't make the top 100.
The combined market cap of all listed companies is 152.6 trillion USD, with SOL accounting for 0.04%, less than a fraction of a percent. Within this total market, it is a number after the decimal point.
This scale explains why even a small allocation of institutional funds causes big movements on this chain. Taking one percent out of a 500 billion USD fund is 5 billion USD, which is more than the daily trading volume of this market.
With a small market cap, the same trading volume causes larger price fluctuations. This is typical for small caps and applies to other coins as well.
When institutions build positions, a few hundred million USD can push the price up; when they exit, the same amount takes a long time to move out.
Market cap changes daily and can be seen directly on the market page. Checking it periodically gives a sense of scale. Unlike price, which changes every minute, checking every few days is sufficient to understand the magnitude.The PancakeSwap core team Kitchen today proposed the governance proposal "The Flip": 88% of the fees from v3 and Infinity pools will be directly distributed to LPs, and the daily CAKE issuance will be cut from 22,500 to 7,000.
88% goes to LPs, the printing press is cut by 70%
$CAKE really has something going on. Kitchen threw out "The Flip" today: 88% of the fees from v3 and Infinity pools will be directly distributed to LPs, covering all 11 chains. Currently, EVM pool LPs only get 66-68%, this move maxes it out.
Issuance cut even harder: daily CAKE issuance cut from 22,500 to 7,000, a 69% cut, reducing about 5.7 million tokens annually. Based on 2025 trading volume, LPs will receive about $62 million more annually.
The trade-off is that v3 will no longer use fees to burn tokens, deflation will only remain the old v2 route with 23% burn. Kitchen estimates net deflation can still be maintained, reducing about 190,000 tokens weekly. If launched in November, this might be the first example of a DEX token economy.Elon Musk takes on a new role, so why didn’t Dogecoin rise?
On October 6, Musk was appointed co-lead of a new Pentagon project. A few years ago, news like this would have been enough to make Dogecoin surge for a day. This time, the market stayed calm and even dropped 5.6% over the following week.
Don’t rush to sigh; I actually think this is a good thing: Dogecoin has grown up.
Let’s recall. In 2021, the last time he appeared on a show, Dogecoin surged to 0.73. Back then, the market was like a fan event; when he spoke, the whole crowd stood up. Five years later, he’s entered government, left government, and re-entered government, the news has gotten bigger, but the market’s reaction has gotten smaller. Why? The audience in the arena has changed. Now, what determines the price is spot capital flow, contract positions, moving averages, and support levels—not just one person’s words.
I chased that bullish candle in May 2021, my account was in the green for three days, then slowly declined over five years. That lesson wasn’t cheap, but it taught me: the idol is responsible for introducing you to $DOGE, but after that, the path must be walked by Dogecoin itself.
He’s still in the headlines, Dogecoin is still on the chain. It’s just that the rope tying them together has broken. Once loosened, it actually walks more steadily.Tonight, the drop in Bitcoin has been so smooth, and I think there are five reasons for this:
1. Bitcoin had already accumulated bearish momentum technically in the earlier period, with highs continuously lowering. At least on a smaller scale, the highs in the past two days have not been able to break above 84000.
2. The negative CPI data released tonight. Actually, Bitcoin has been unable to fall further or rise recently, mainly due to the timing of this CPI data release. When everyone is waiting for this data, once it is released, it triggers a chain reaction.
3. From the ETF capital perspective, Bitcoin's ETF funds have shown a wavering trend recently, with net outflows overall in the past few days.
4. Previous posts have also mentioned this. Several KOLs have recently said that the market is dull with no momentum, which also indicates that a big move is not far off. The CPI data release is just a fuse that activates all the liquidity of funds.
5. BTC always moves in tandem with gold. Look at gold's current stance; it feels like 4066 might just be the final push.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点 ASML is the world's only supplier of EUV extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. Advanced process AI chips from TSMC, Samsung, and Intel all rely on this equipment, which is regarded as a leading indicator of semiconductor and AI capital expenditures. This time, the market is not only looking at current revenue but also at new EUV orders and long-term capacity planning, which are the core factors for success.
The current round of EUV demand mainly comes from AI computing power expansion: TSMC is expanding 3nm/2nm foundry AI chip production, and Samsung and SK Hynix are increasing HBM supporting production lines. The market focuses on new Low-NA EUV orders and the introduction progress of the next-generation High-NA EUV, representing willingness to invest in more advanced processes in the longer term.
It is important to distinguish: revenue reflects confirmed shipments, while orders reflect future expansion plans of wafer fabs. If new EUV orders significantly exceed expectations, it will confirm the continuation of AI capital expenditure prosperity, benefiting the entire semiconductor chain and boosting Nasdaq tech sentiment; if orders fall short of expectations, it will reinforce the expectation of "AI expansion slowdown," resonating with previous hawkish remarks from Broadcom and Intel, likely triggering valuation cuts in the sector.
Transmission to the crypto market: if ASML's data is impressive, risk appetite will rise, providing sentiment support for BTC, ETH; conversely, weak orders will pressure tech stocks, and high-beta assets are more likely to weaken accordingly. However, this is an industry chain sentiment transmission and generally difficult to develop an independent trend.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Nine years ago, someone who bought Ethereum for $50 is now depositing coins into exchanges.
That batch of coins cost $370,000 and is now worth 19.26 million.
He hasn't sold. He just unlocked the staking.
But why deposit?
First, let's talk about Ethereum's recent changes.
It dropped 4.45% in a week, now around 2500.
Three signals, all pointing to the same thing:
More people can sell, fewer want to buy.
First: coins are moving to exchanges.
340,000 coins.
Previously, coins were scattered everywhere; if you wanted to sell, you had to find a buyer first.
Now they're piled on trading platforms, ready to sell anytime.
Hodling ≠ holding in hand.
Second: whales are moving coins off-platform.
An OTC whale sold nearly 10,000 coins, cashing out 25 million.
Bought at over 2100, sold at 2600, made 24 million profit.
That same guy who bought at $50 nine years ago also unlocked all his coins and deposited them into Kraken.
At the same time, the same group of people turned their coins into cash.
Third: US buyers are retreating.
An index compares how much more the same coin sells for on Exchange C than on Some Exchange.
Now it's negative, the lowest in two months.
In plain language: the buying side over there is retreating.
It's not just retail investors running away.
ETF outflows have continued for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling 780 million.
For October, net outflow is 695 million.
I always thought this drop had nothing to do with whales.
Later I realized I was wrong.
For a reversal, we need to see whales come back to buy and ETFs start flowing in again.CPI hits hard! BTC's $80,000 defense battle, ETH kneels first in respect? Core CPI at 2.6%, expected 2.5%. This number is the only one to remember tonight. Ten minutes after the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged from 5.19% to 5.27%, BTC dropped 1.2%, gold fell 1.0%, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Previously, only gold and crypto were falling; tonight even US stocks can't hold up—the market no longer just worries about high interest rates but starts pricing in the possibility of more rate hikes. Before the CPI release, $BTC was oscillating around 83,700, $ETH was weaker near $2,500. The market was waiting for this signal. Now the signal is here, the direction is bearish. For traders, BTC is just over 3% away from 80,000; unless interest rates reverse, it’s hard for BTC to strengthen alone. Support first seen at 81,500. ETH’s weak structure remains unchanged, altcoins continue to bleed. Tonight, I choose to hold back. Data doesn't lie; what lies is your expectation of the data. #US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations Funding: Long liquidations dominate, ETF continues to be under pressure
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $140 million, with long liquidations at $81.14 million and short liquidations at $58.86 million. BTC long liquidations were $8.38 million, short liquidations $11.72 million — shorts were hit harder after the CPI, indicating a short squeeze after the data but it failed to sustain.
Funding rates have turned negative earlier, with Gate platform BTC/USDT rate dropping as low as -0.0054%, shorts paying longs, and bearish sentiment accumulating. ETFs still saw a weekly net outflow of about $679 million, with weak institutional demand being the core force suppressing the rebound height. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #US September CPI rises 3.7% YoY, core inflation exceeds expectations
Inflation rebounds again! September CPI beats expectations across the board, crypto market under pressure
US September CPI YoY 3.7% (expected 3.6%, previous 3.4%), core CPI YoY 2.6% (expected 2.5%, previous 2.4%), inflation stickiness exceeds market forecasts.
1. Direct data result: CME rate hike probability sharply rises, US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen simultaneously. Cryptocurrencies are interest-free risk assets; with rising rates, funds tend to flow back to US Treasuries, creating macro headwinds for the crypto market.
2. Root cause of inflation rise: oil prices drive a surge in energy components, combined with persistently high housing and service inflation, confirming the earlier hawkish view by Hamarck that "further rate hikes are still needed."
3. Added pre-existing bearish factors: BTC and ETH spot ETFs have already seen synchronized net outflows, institutional funds are already shrinking positions, and the CPI data adds another layer of pressure, further amplifying rebound resistance.
Price movement predictions by coin
✅ BTC Bitcoin
BTC is most closely tied to US Treasury yields and ETF institutional funds. With CPI exceeding expectations, it will face short-term downward pressure first. It is the market barometer, relatively more resistant than altcoins, but under the dual pressure of rising rate hike expectations and ETF redemptions, a strong rebound is unlikely; only if officials later signal dovishness and redemptions slow will the decline stop and stabilize.
✅ ETH Ethereum
Highly elastic asset, likely to fall more than BTC. ETH is closely linked to DeFi staking yields; rising US Treasury yields will divert DeFi funds. During market downturns, leveraged and staking positions are prone to triggering cascading sell pressure; even if a slight recovery occurs later, the rebound strength will be capped by rate hike expectations.
✅ ZEC (Zcash)
The most volatile among the three. It is a small-cap privacy coin; when risk appetite declines, funds prioritize selling small-cap thematic coins, causing a drop much larger than BTC and ETH;
There is only one exception: if the privacy narrative independently explodes, it will have a standalone rally, but under the current macro-tight environment, this probability is very low, and liquidation risk is highest.
Summary of three scenarios
🔴 Scenario 1: Fed officials collectively hawkish, strengthening rate hike expectations
BTC and ETH weaken simultaneously, ZEC’s decline widens, market experiences spikes and increased liquidations, weakness continues.
🟡 Scenario 2: Officials signal neutral stance, emphasize single-month data won’t drive decisions
Bearish factors are temporarily digested, market enters a choppy bottoming phase with range-bound spikes, making it difficult for bulls or bears.
🟢 Scenario 3: Subsequent inflation components decline, market reprices no rate hikes
Risk appetite recovers, ETH shows stronger elasticity, ZEC has the strongest short-term explosive potential, but only if ETF outflows stop.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Regarding KOR, many people who recently bought the dip have been stuck, so I'll share my logic. The fundamentals of storage look good, like supply not meeting demand, but it doesn't change the fact that it's still a bulk commodity. Once mass-produced, profits will inevitably plummet. Also, storage is actually a source of inflation in the AI tech revolution. On one hand, it has indeed brought stock market prosperity, but inflation is transmissible. Now downstream consumer electronics manufacturers are already struggling; just try buying a computer and you'll see how much more expensive it is. So this price increase will sooner or later have to be reversed. In fact, the rise in metal prices is also closely related to the rise in storage prices. Therefore, to put it jokingly, Trump's war was actually just a catch-up rally for oil prices #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $SNDK #Today Sandisk is stuck in place, unable to break through, $SNDK
It's not that the fundamentals have worsened, but the bullish momentum is being suppressed by several pieces of news.
First, Elon Musk's tweet benefits Micron, indirectly suppressing Sandisk.
Musk stated that Micron's pricing is restrained, while other manufacturers' price hikes are too aggressive.
The market worries that Sandisk's high-price strategy might lose major customer orders.
Capital is starting to doubt the room for Sandisk to continue raising NAND prices.
Second, a large amount of profit-taking positions are piled up above.
With huge gains earlier, approaching the 1500 resistance level, capital cashes out profits whenever prices surge.
Without significant positive surprises, no one is willing to actively free up trapped positions.
Third, expectations of capacity release from Changxin Memory continue to suppress sector valuations.
The market worries about increased future DRAM supply, casting doubt on the sustainability of the storage price upcycle.
The overall sentiment in the storage sector is weak, dragging Sandisk into synchronized fluctuations.
Fourth, the dual nature of long-term contracts.
Long-term orders secure the performance baseline but also lock the growth ceiling.
Institutions worry that gross margins have peaked, making explosive outperformance unlikely.
Today's market characteristics:
Sector divergence, capital prefers conservatively priced Micron.
Sandisk lacks strong catalysts, capital is cautious, resulting in range-bound grinding.
To break through 1500, two signals are needed:
NAND spot and contract prices continue to rise, or AI servers add large storage orders.
Otherwise, it will likely remain volatile, with rallies easily falling back. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 A true trader, when facing market uncertainty, dares to make their own judgment. After the US CPI data was released tonight, I chose to take a short-term bearish stance and have already fully positioned in short orders! Why am I leaning bearish this time? Let me share my three reasons. ① Overall inflation is higher than market expectations. The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%, and also exceeded the previous value of 3.4%. The market had already anticipated a possible rebound in inflation, but the actual data released was even hotter, indicating that inflationary pressure is not as easy to ease as imagined. ② Core inflation is also not optimistic. September core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, higher than the previous 2.4%; month-on-month it rose 0.3%, also exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%. Even excluding food and energy prices, inflation still shows significant pressure. Such data will make the Federal Reserve more cautious when considering rate cuts, and the space for easing policies may be further limited. ③ Rising oil prices are pushing up inflation. US gasoline prices rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half to the overall monthly CPI increase. The continuous rise in energy prices means that future inflation decline may be more difficult. If oil prices remain high, market concerns about prolonged high interest rates may also intensify. So, what does this mean for the crypto market? My judgment is: the short-term market is bearish, but further price confirmation is needed. Inflation exceeding expectations may strengthen the expectation that interest rates will remain high, and may even trigger a market re-ignition.$BTC $ETH CPI+Fed hawkish signals double negative, BTC/ETH market sentiment analysis
With CPI exceeding expectations and the Fed's hawkish signals, macro tightening expectations are reconfirmed, causing market sentiment to weaken directly.
From two 30-minute charts, the strength divergence is clear: BTC's decline is relatively restrained, more of a passive follow-down, with stronger risk-averse capital attributes. The decline is mainly due to macro liquidity suppression, with no extreme internal sell-off. Market funds prefer to stay in BTC, which is currently the default safe haven in the crypto space.
ETH is noticeably weaker, with deeper bearish candles and greater downward momentum. ETH carries the DeFi narrative and is more sensitive to rising interest rates. As rate hike expectations heat up, risk asset valuations are directly crushed, and bullish confidence collapses more obviously. Once macro negatives hit, funds withdraw from ETH immediately, and contract long stop-loss orders flood out.
Current overall market sentiment: bottom-fishers are completely on hold, no longer rushing to catch rebounds. Bulls who previously gambled on oscillation reversals have been repeatedly hit and now generally dare not open longs lightly. Bearish sentiment dominates but has not yet reached extreme panic sell-off.
Market mentality has shifted to: reduce positions on rebounds, avoid bottom-fishing easily. Overall capital is contracting, and altcoin sell pressure will be fiercer than mainstream coins. The core focus of the subsequent market remains on US Treasury yields; if interest rates stay high without falling, this weak trend pattern will be hard to reverse quickly. $PYTH
Why might data demand and token holding returns become disconnected during PYTH pullbacks?
Today's midday spot 24-hour observation window: range 0.07725—0.08824 USDT, change -2.10%, trading volume approximately 3.81 million USDT.
Product usage, commercial revenue, and token rights need to be verified separately. Service usage does not necessarily require users to continuously hold the same amount of tokens, and short-term pullbacks do not prove a decline in data demand; value transmission must have mechanisms and cash flow evidence.
If revenue and rights lack support and rebounds keep breaking lower lows, proceed with caution; if clear transmission can be verified and higher lows are maintained, then increase the weight of economic demand.【Is Saylor's playbook really about hoarding $BTC, or is it a game of financial relay?】
K33 did the math: Strategy raised about $7.5 billion through STRC financing in the first half of the year to buy nearly 100,000 BTC, but this also increased its annual dividend obligation by about $725 million. Calculated at $83,000 per BTC, this is equivalent to the value of 8,740 BTC per year.
This is a bit delicate. Issuing preferred shares to buy BTC, supporting valuation with BTC purchases, then relying on market confidence to continue financing. When BTC rises, this cycle spins faster and faster; but dividends are real cash outflows, while BTC itself does not automatically generate cash flow to cover them.
Is this a Ponzi scheme? Strictly speaking, it cannot be defined as such. Strategy holds real BTC assets, and the financing and dividends have clear securities terms. But it does have a vulnerability: if growth increasingly depends on the next round of financing, once the financial relay is interrupted, the whole cycle could stall.
I won't be bearish on BTC just because of this report for now, but I will closely watch Strategy's financing ability, cash reserves, and STRC dividend costs. In a bull market, this is capital operation; in a bear market, it could be something else. What Saylor really wants to prove is not how much more BTC he can buy, but whether this machine can keep running long-term. The opponent has pushed pawns to the first three squares in front of the Dhahran headquarters, smoke is rising on the board, but a true grandmaster never focuses on these three squares—I’m watching the diagonal line of the king’s wing, whether the entire major diagonal line of Saudi energy exports is still open.
The Aramco headquarters was hit, three floors burned, no casualties, production and exports unaffected. What is this called in chess notation? A probing pawn sacrifice, where the opponent uses a small pawn to divert my attention and reaction time. His move’s purpose isn’t to capture my king but to force me to move defensive pieces and see if my response reveals structural weaknesses. The Houthi forces attack airports and energy facilities, the Saudi-led coalition retaliates by striking fuel depots in Yemen—this is a typical piece exchange melee in the midgame, both sides tactically contesting the same group of squares. The Red Sea is the rear wing, Hormuz is the center; Saudi Arabia wants to build bypass pipelines, effectively opening an additional route on the flank, but flank routes always have the same problem: few squares, limited width, and once controlled by enemy rooks or knights, they become virtually useless.
Brent fell 0.9% to 105.69, WTI rose 0.4% to 94.14, the two benchmarks moved in opposite directions. This is the most alarming signal on my board: not the prices themselves, but that two pieces that should be linked are starting to act independently. This indicates the market hasn’t reached consensus; both bulls and bears are still calculating, and no one dares to make the first move into the center. Heavy positions in such a scenario are like committing all your pieces on an unfinished opening board—an amateur’s move.
The real decisive move isn’t today’s fire alarm but whether the opponent can push the front line to the three lifelines: oil fields, refineries, and export terminals. As long as any square on these three lines is substantially attacked, the entire situation will instantly escalate from a tactical piece exchange to a strategic-level king attack—that’s the endgame that determines the oil price center and the pricing of safe-haven assets. But for now, we’re still transitioning from opening to midgame; all major pieces remain in place, the board is shrouded in smoke, but the truly fatal strike has yet to fall.
$XAUT’s role in this situation is like the rook in my hand that hasn’t been deployed. The essence of safe-haven logic isn’t offense but having a safe harbor for my king when the opponent might launch a strong attack. When risk remains in the probing and piece exchange phase, this rook’s value is underestimated; once the fire approaches the core squares, it will realize its full potential along a clear path in one decisive move.
My judgment is: the situation has entered a tactical piece exchange zone, but the strategic strike’s target remains unclear. The worst thing now is to be led by the immediate fire alarm and dismantle your own structure before the opponent reveals their next move. #aramcohqattackoilriskThe $CORE project team has withdrawn all nodes. Isn't it obvious that they ran away? Still not convinced? If you're not convinced, buy more.Tonight's CPI data isn't here to scare people, it's here to kill directly. Overall inflation exceeded expectations, and core inflation rose simultaneously, which means the Fed's excuse of "only energy price increases" has been completely torn apart. The market's previous bet on "no change in October" is now being ground into the ground.
After the data came out, BTC directly fell below 82,000; the previously repeatedly mentioned psychological support at 80,000 has now become a ceiling. ETF funds were already flowing out, and now with tightening macro expectations, buyers dare not enter. Long-term holders on-chain are still buying, but they can't hold off institutions dumping in the futures market. If 80,000 can't hold, the next support is 78,000.
ETH fell the hardest tonight, crashing near 2,400. It was the weakest among the three to begin with; ETF continues to bleed, staking yields can't keep up with U.S. Treasuries, and institutions are not supporting the price below. When BTC weakens, ETH falls the most; tonight's trend is a vivid example. Don't expect it to strengthen independently in the short term.
Gold $XAUT also plunged tonight, spot gold dropped nearly 2%. Core inflation exceeding expectations pushed up real interest rates, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together. Non-yielding gold can only take a hit in the short term.
My view is straightforward: don't bet on the data, bet on the collapse of market trust in the Fed. The data just landed; don't rush to chase the first candlestick, wait for the sentiment to release before making moves. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 5.9%—this is not an interest rate figure; it is a critical load threshold hanging over the skyscraper of the US stock market. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.2%, 70 basis points away from that threshold, while 37% of fund managers have marked 6% on their blueprints, and 19% have already started moving the steel reinforcements within the load-bearing structure.
I have been a structural engineer for twenty years, and what I fear most is not earthquakes, but resonance. When short-term government bonds begin to be accumulated, when nearly six years of underweight positions are wiped out in one stroke and shift to overweight short bonds, turning neutral on US stocks—this is not just portfolio adjustment, it is the main structure quietly unloading non-load-bearing walls, concentrating the load toward the core tube. There is a phrase in design codes: in any building, the first to fail is never the facade, but when everyone simultaneously decides to head for the same exit.
The 70 basis points between 5.2% and 5.9% act as expansion joints, dampers, and inter-story displacement space that allows the market to breathe. But once it crosses 6%, you will find that the rise in long-term yields is no longer gentle—it behaves like uneven foundation settlement, tearing from the basement all the way to the top floor. The volatility of both the stock and bond markets will be amplified simultaneously because they share the same foundation: liquidity.
BofA’s survey says there has been no large-scale rotation. That’s because real shifts never happen linearly. When we do seismic design, the most dangerous buildings are those that "look stable"—they weld all joints rigidly, lack ductility, and suddenly fail in a brittle manner when loaded to a certain point. The current US stock market is in this state: the surface structure is intact, but it lacks deformation capacity. BlackRock moving positions toward short bonds is equivalent to admitting that the risk premium on the long end is no longer sufficient to cover future interest and uncertainty.
As for $xUSAR and similar tokenized US stock assets, they play the role of the curtain wall in this story. The curtain wall itself is non-load-bearing, but it is the first to sense wind pressure and temperature differences. Once the underlying yield curve steepens, the curtain wall’s connectors will start to creak first.
The real problem is not the 6% figure. It lies in that when everyone is focused on the deflection of the same beam, no one checks the axial compression ratio of the columns. The market is never brought down by a single interest rate; it is slowly exhausted by the stress redistribution within the load-bearing system.$BTC/$ETH Bitcoin will rebound, altcoins will make a strong comeback, buy on dips. This is the expert judgment, but we need to see if the data supports this conclusion. On October 14, CPI data exceeded expectations, with overall inflation at 3.7%, a four-month high. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan originally expected the market to drop 3% to 5%, but Bitcoin only fell about 1%, staying near $82,600. This is no coincidence. The average cost for long-term holders is about $48,600, and they still hold about 72% of unrealized gains; they did not panic sell under the CPI shock. Meanwhile, Strive bought another 3,311 BTC last week, increasing total holdings to 32,773 BTC, with institutions continuously accumulating. More importantly, there is a change in leverage structure. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $408 million, but the funding rate has turned negative. On the Gate platform, the BTC/USDT funding rate is -0.0046%. This means shorts are starting to pay longs, and the market's leverage pressure is shifting from the long side to the short side. When shorts become crowded, any upward catalyst could trigger a short squeeze. Regarding altcoins, funds are flowing into established projects like ZEC and Starknet. ZEC has risen from $50 to $1,300 within a year. The characteristic of this rally is that funds are flowing into projects that are fully or nearly fully unlocked and have real technical narratives, rather than pure sentiment speculation. Ethereum rebounded from $2,400 to $2,505 after the dip September CPI brings more rate hikes, with rate hike decisions swinging between October and December. Macro pressure is gradually increasing. How will the US stock market, US bonds, and #Bitcoin perform? First, looking at the bond market: after the data release, 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y bonds all rose simultaneously, then experienced a small-scale pullback. The 2Y yield rose the most sharply, initially indicating a strong hawkish market expectation for tonight's CPI, with increased expectations for rate hikes and inflation. The pullback is a technical correction following the short-term data shock. Going forward, continue to watch the 10Y and 30Y trends. If the 10Y and 30Y continue to fall, it means the Fed is more hawkish but long-term inflation is controllable. If the 10Y and 30Y continue to rise, be cautious that the market is redefining a higher long-term neutral rate, and inflation concerns are more persistent. If so, risk assets will face more obvious pressure. #US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, with core inflation exceeding expectations. Now looking at the US stock market: so far, large US banks' earnings reports are optimistic, proving that AI capital supply is good. ASML's earnings are strong, and the AI industry narrative is healthy and stable, which should have driven prices up, but was offset and even clearly pressured by tonight's CPI data bearish impact, mainly because long-term interest rates remain high under the macro background, amplifying the bearish effect. Next, this week still has Thursday's TSMC earnings report. Although TSMC's earnings expectations are good, it only proves the stability and health of the AI narrative. Reversing the trend this week is very difficult, as macro pressure dominates this week. As for #Bitcoin's trend, it has maintained around the 4-hour MA120 for the first two days of this week 🌪️At 2:17 PM, a deep convective cloud band appeared over the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, sinking 2.7 percentage points in a single day—this is not ordinary rain; it is the first rumble signaling the destabilization of capital stratification.
Broadcom's CEO, Chen Fuyang, sounded a wind shear alarm in Singapore: the cumulonimbus clouds of chip capacity are dissipating, the low-pressure trough of power supply is weakening, but the real blocking high pressure has shifted to the capital side. He said capital might become a bigger bottleneck. Note, this is not a chip problem, nor a power grid problem; this is an issue with the atmospheric circulation itself. Intel's Chen Liwu added: financing channels, financing costs, and validation of long-term returns—these three are the baroclinic instability conditions determining how far this AI storm can go.
The semiconductor index fell 2.7%, which on a weather scale is equivalent to a moderate squall line passing through. But the real signal is at a higher level: OpenAI's massive computing power expenditure and financing model are being openly discussed, indicating that the market's supercomputer is starting to diverge on whether "rainfall can materialize." Near-term demand remains clear, and neither CEO has lowered short-term expectations, but the mid-to-long-term convective available potential energy is being reassessed.
At this time, to understand the linkage of tokenized US stock targets, one must read the sounding curve. The underlying atmosphere—on-chain liquidity—is still warm and moist; the fear and greed index has not fallen below the neutral layer. But mid-level dry cold air is invading: credit spreads are widening, risk premiums on AI-related assets are rising, and perpetual contracts related to HYPE and SK Hynix have experienced violent fluctuations, indicating localized downbursts. BTC and Nasdaq are showing signs of decoupling, like a region once controlled by the same monsoon suddenly splitting into two independent climate zones.
The impact path on tokenized US stock targets is clear: first, the financing constraint narrative will suppress the height of valuation expansion's convective cloud tops; second, if credit spreads continue to climb, the stratification of risk assets will shift from conditionally unstable to absolutely unstable; third, the short-term AI demand warm ridge remains, meaning the pullback is more like a frontal precipitation rather than a monsoon retreat.
But I want to give a forecaster's cold judgment: when both capacity and power variables start to improve, yet the bottleneck does not disappear but merely shifts from the supply side to the capital side—this indicates the main controlling factor of this AI market cycle has changed seasons. The wind direction has changed, and so has the direction of the pressure gradient force.
On radar echoes, the dialogue in Singapore was a high-altitude sounding balloon, and the data has been transmitted back. In the next 48 hours, watch two things closely: the slope of AI credit spreads and whether there is an inversion layer in the net capital inflow of tokenized semiconductor targets. Once an inversion forms, no matter how much the warm air near the surface churns, it cannot rise. #aifundingconstraintsDon't rush to say the altcoin season has arrived; this wave feels more like an emotional rebound first, with the structure not yet catching up. The rebound you see—is it really a trend reversal? Watching the market last night, my biggest impression was: many people mistake an oversold recovery for the start of a reversal. BTC is currently around 83,900, up only 0.57% in 24 hours, having previously dipped below 83,000; ETH returned to 2,516, up 1.67%, pulled back from the overnight low of 2,407. The numbers all look like they're rising, but the rhythm is very different. Let's start with BTC. 81,000 is a strong support near the 400-day moving average, which has been tested multiple times before; above, 84,000 is resistance at the 20-day moving average, and only by breaking above can it have a chance to reach 86,500. The problem is that from 15 minutes to 4 hours timeframe, it still looks weak; this round feels more like a recovery after overselling rather than a new trend ignition. ETH is actually more interesting. The daily chart shows a "engulfing" pattern, with around 2,494 acting as a short-term bottom, currently stuck at the Bollinger Bands middle band at 2,517. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, meaning a direction will be chosen in the next 12 to 24 hours. But on-chain activity is very divided: some whales are clearing ETH to take profits and exit, while others are selling BTC to buy ETH at an average price of 2,529; meanwhile, ETH liquidity on Binance has dropped to a seven-month low, quietly accumulating volatility risk. On the sentiment side, what I see is not outright optimism but cautious probing. Exchange BTC balances are dropping Low Fees Come at a Cost: Understanding the Token Economics Behind $SOL $SUI , and $IMX For $SOL, I break down transaction fees into two components. Under the official fee structure, 50% of the base fee is burned, while the other 50% goes to validators. Priority fees, on the other hand, go entirely to validators. This means that rising network fees don't automatically translate into higher token burns. If most of the growth comes from priority fees, validators benefit more, while the reduction Low Fees Come at a Cost: Understanding the Token Economics Behind $SOL $SUI , and $IMX For $SOL, I break down transaction fees into two components. Under the official fee structure, 50% of the base fee is burned, while the other 50% goes to validators. Priority fees, on the other hand, go entirely to validators. This means that rising network fees don't automatically translate into higher token burns. If most of the growth comes from priority fees, validators benefit more, while the reduction Looking ahead to the close of the US stock market on Friday, I remain bearish on SNDK.
The reasons are simple. First, SNDK has already risen a lot. The NAND price increase and AI storage demand have been positive factors, and the market has priced in much of this in advance. Now, continued industry prosperity is not enough; it must consistently exceed expectations for the stock price to continue rising.
Second, US CPI exceeded expectations, bringing back interest rate pressure. Tech stocks like SNDK, which had large prior gains and high valuations, are the most likely to be reduced by investors first.
Third, although CXMT mainly affects DRAM, it has caused the entire storage sector to reassess competition and valuations, making short-term capital more likely to take profits.
Therefore, I expect the following path: first test $1400. If $1400 does not hold, look at $1370; if weakness continues, look at $1345–$1360.
If there is support around $1400, there could be a rebound to $1450–$1485, but as long as it cannot hold above $1485, I still consider it a rebound within a downtrend.
Only if it firmly breaks above $1485 and surpasses $1539 will I abandon this bearish view.
My view is clear: **The industry is not bad, but given current valuations and capital conditions, a short-term decline is more likely.**"$OKB Burn: Supply Locked, Does Not Equal Buying Pressure"
The total supply of $OKB is locked at 21 million tokens. A one-time burn of 65.26 million tokens was executed, closing the issuance channel. No new OKB will be created in the future.
But the easy-to-misread part is this: it is still the on-chain gas fee. Each transaction burns a bit; the more users, the more is burned. The burn only locks the supply cap, it does not automatically increase demand.
What truly determines its value is whether people are using that chain. Burn does not equal buying pressure. If no one uses it, no matter how much is burned, the price won’t rise. If people use it, locking the supply cap becomes meaningful.
So don’t rush in just because of the burn. First look at on-chain activity, gas consumption, and whether the ecosystem has real demand. The supply side is the premise; the demand side is the answer.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
$OKB
For personal observation only, not investment advice.$BTC 🔥 Boot turns to brick: CPI 3.7% hits hard, BTC 83.8K→82.8K, ETH breaks 2,500, crypto market collectively kneels
10.14 20:30 US September CPI:
Overall CPI 3.7% (expected 3.6%, previous 3.4%)
Month-on-month +0.6% (expected 0.5%)
Core CPI year-on-year 2.6%, month-on-month +0.3% (expected 0.2%)
Inflation not dead, rate hikes alive again.
October rate hike pricing from 18%→32%+
10Y yield surges to 5.28%–5.29%, 2Y yield nears 4.91%
BTC slashed from 83.8K to 82.8K, ETH breaks 2,500 down to 2,479, XRP breaks 1.40, BNB breaks 740
Sideways waiting for CPI, once CPI hits—sideways turns into a slide.
BTC kneels first, ETH follows the hit, altcoins add the finishing blow, this is the standard script for “core inflation exceeding expectations.”
82,000–82,300 = bulls’ lifeline, 4H close below → 81,000 → 80,900 previous low
80,000 = 50-day moving average + psychological bottom, daily close below = door opens to 78.7K
Rebound resistance at 84,100–84,500 sell wall, failure to hold is just a fake breath
Tomorrow 10.15 20:30 PPI + retail + initial claims: strong retail = more stable rate hike, jump in initial claims = market fantasizes pause again Before tonight's CPI, the easiest thing to misjudge is not the direction, but the "quietness." Do you also feel that no volatility means no risk? When I watch the BTC and ETH markets, my first impression is not "falling," but "contracting." Prices are rubbing back and forth in a narrow range, but the sentiment is like water pressed down, actually very tense underneath. Many people see Williams' relatively mild statements and think the policy is about to ease, but the market is not really reassured—it worries about sticky inflation and whether there will be tougher wording later. The inconsistent statements among officials are like smoke screens, not consensus, just each taking their own stance. At times like this, what is truly being traded is often not the data itself, but "whether the data will break the current low volatility." CPI will be released tonight; if it falls within expectations, BTC and ETH may first give a directional choice: BTC resistance near 84000, support near 82000; ETH resistance around 2540, support around 2500. Before the range breaks, sentiment leans cautious, and altcoins are more likely to lose attention because risk appetite hasn't truly returned. The more bullish path is: data not hot, combined with mild statements, the market will push back worries of "one more rate hike," BTC and ETH will first recover, and sentiment will slowly spill over to altcoins. The potential risk is: as long as inflation expectations don't drop, any rebound may be seen as a window to reduce positions, especially chasing gains before data, which is prone to being swept back and forth. I now prefer to understand this phase as sentiment compression rather than trend end. Waiting for the data to land, watchingCPI is out at 3.7%, 0.1 points higher than expected. The core month-on-month is 0.3%, which is the critical number — the market was previously betting on 0.2%.
As soon as the data dropped, the October rate hike bets on Polymarket jumped directly from 16% at the start of the month to 47%. BTC slipped back from above 84,000, now hovering around 82,700, down about 0.6% in 24 hours.
But the market is conflicted. Last night, ETFs still had a net inflow of 176 million, with FBTC alone taking in 103 million. On-chain is even more interesting: a whale just bought 1,162 BTC through Wintermute, worth 96.77 million dollars. On one hand, macro is pushing prices down; on the other, big money is buying underneath. So, is this bearish or bullish?
Coinbase premium index has dropped to its lowest since July, with the spread briefly turning negative. Institutions in the US are indeed pulling back, but addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC hit a record high of 20,384. Retail and whales are buying, institutions are selling — a typical turnover phase.
ETH is quieter, sticking around 2,500, and ETFs have ended a ten-day outflow streak.
To be honest, CPI beating expectations is a short-term negative, but with rate hike bets jumping to 47%, the worst is mostly priced in. There are long liquidations stacked below 79,600 and shorts waiting above 87,500. The current volatility is digesting these two zones. Don’t rush to chase; wait for a clear direction to emerge first.
$BTC $LINK
LINK is moderately recovering; why is there no valuation guarantee for the product's necessity?
Today's midday spot 24-hour observation window: range 12.725—13.193 USDT, change +0.70%, trading volume approximately 3.93 million USDT.
There must be costs and mechanisms between data service calls, charges, and token rights. Infrastructure necessity does not imply that any valuation is reasonable; price recovery alone cannot independently prove an increase in genuine paid demand, and value capture cannot be omitted.
If income evidence lacks follow-up and 12.725 is breached, business support decreases; if clear transmission improvement occurs and 13.193 is regained and stabilized, then increase demand sustainability.Another publicly listed company is investing real money: spending about $280 million in one go to buy 3,311 bitcoins, with an average price just over $84,000 each.
The strategy of these "Bitcoin treasury" companies is straightforward: issue stocks or bonds to raise money, then convert the funds into crypto; when the coin price rises, the company's net assets and stock price increase accordingly, enabling them to raise even more money to buy more coins. As long as the trend is upward, this is a self-reinforcing machine. The first company to successfully follow this path set the template, and the number of followers has only grown in recent years.
But the reverse is also true: once prices turn down, borrowed money, added leverage, and dividends promised to shareholders all become burdens. The combined holdings of companies doing the same thing in the market are no small amount, and no one can say for sure if they can withstand the next deep correction.
So when I see this kind of news, I always think one step further—are they really allocating hard assets for shareholders, or just packaging a highly volatile position as a "strategic reserve"?
More and more listed companies are borrowing money to hoard crypto. Do you think this is smart asset allocation or layers of risk piling up? Let's discuss in the comments.
$BTC$BTC
Let's first look at some key data:
US CPI year-over-year is 3.7%, expected 3.6%, previous 3.4%.
CPI month-over-month is 0.6%, in line with expectations.
Core CPI month-over-month is 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%.
Core CPI year-over-year is 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%.
What does this data indicate?
Inflationary pressure still exists, especially core inflation is not as optimistic as the market expected.
This means the Federal Reserve's future easing space may be limited, and the market needs to reassess rate cut expectations.
For BTC, US stocks, and other risk assets, this is naturally not good news.
Now looking at US stocks.
Tonight, the Nasdaq opened down 0.6%, the S&P 500 opened down 0.41%.
Finally, back to BTC.
BTC has now fallen back to around 82.6K, ETH dropped to around 2470, and SOL also returned to around 105.
This precisely shows that although yesterday's V-shaped rebound proved there was buying near 81K, it is still insufficient to change the structure of continuously lower daily highs.
Next, my trading thoughts:
① BTC 83K–84K: Short-term resistance area; only by stabilizing above this can there be a chance to challenge 85K.
② BTC 81K–82K: Key support area; focus on whether effective support can appear again.
③ If 81K is broken: continue to watch around 80K below, or even deeper pullback risks.
My personal bias: cautious short-term bearish, but do not chase shorts near support.#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 Microsoft officially launches the self-developed Maia 300 AI chip, with the news driving the stock price to a new annual high. This chip focuses on AI inference scenarios, supporting long context and AI agent tasks. Official data shows that under the same power consumption, token output is about 40% higher compared to mainstream GPUs. Mass deployment at the gigawatt scale is planned to start in 2027.
Key distinction: Maia 300 is positioned as an inference chip, not a large model training chip, and will not replace training cards in the short term. Therefore, the impact on NVIDIA is more of a long-term expectation, and short-term long-term training card orders are basically unaffected. The market is giving Microsoft a premium, mainly optimistic about the integrated closed loop of "large models + cloud services + self-developed computing power," opening up profitability space for AI business.
There is a differentiated trend within the sector: positive for Microsoft itself; however, the "computing power autonomy" narrative will suppress third-party GPU targets. Meanwhile, Maia 300 uses HBM4, creating new demand for HBM, which is also the source of the long-short game in the storage sector.
Transmission to crypto: The Nasdaq tech sentiment is warming up, providing short-term emotional support for high-beta assets like BTC, ETH, etc., but this is a linkage effect and it is difficult to develop into an independent major trend.
Follow-up focus: Maia 300 mass production yield, official deployment schedule, and subsequent Azure revenue and gross margin guidance. If the landing progress is below expectations, it is easy to see a realization of positive news followed by a pullback. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 📊 CPI REACTION | Data as of 20:30 tonight
September inflation came in hotter than expected across the board. Headline CPI hit 3.7% YoY vs. 3.6% forecast, while core CPI reached 2.6% vs. 2.5% expected. Core MoM also remained firm at 0.3%, missing expectations for a slowdown to 0.2%.
The inflation pass-through is becoming harder to ignore. Energy prices surged 20.4% YoY, with gasoline jumping 9.1% MoM, raising concerns that persistent energy costs could keep broader inflation.
#DailyOrbit Many investors believe token burning automatically pushes prices higher, but the numbers behind $SUI tell a different story. 👀 Let’s look at the bigger picture. 🪙 1. The Burn Rate Is Relatively Small If $SUI burns approximately 1,000–2,500 tokens per day, the annual reduction would be around 365,000–912,500 tokens. Against a maximum supply of 10 billion tokens, that represents just 0.0037%–0.0091% annually. Even at a hypothetical price of $1.80, the upper-end annual burn would represent roughlThe ETH position laid out tonight secured 7k profit, relying on an early strategic assessment of the situation.
Previously, the market widely bet on inflation easing, with ETH oscillating at high levels for some time. However, the rebound in oil prices, persistent service sector inflation, combined with the early strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, had already signaled bearish factors. The short position profited from this expectation gap.
After CPI exceeded expectations, the probability of a Fed rate hike quickly surged, and liquidity tightening expectations directly suppressed the highly elastic ETH, leading to concentrated profit-taking by bulls and a corresponding market drop.
Currently, short-term bears dominate; after a technical breakdown, attention should be paid to support levels below. In the medium term, wait for the Fed's end-of-month decision; after bearish factors are fully priced in, a recovery may occur.
Those who observe the trend understand it; those who control the trend win. Not blindly following market sentiment, but anticipating the rhythm and positioning precisely, is the way to secure profits amid volatility. $ETH $SOL On this chain, there is a category of money that does not speculate on coins; it represents real-world assets brought on-chain to conduct business.
According to the data site's classification, this category currently totals $585 million, spread across 12 projects. The two largest ones are: one in reinsurance with $293 million, and one in credit with $249 million. Together, these two account for 92% of this category.
The rest are smaller players, with the next largest at $33.6 million, followed by several in the millions or even hundreds of thousands. The scale of this category is basically supported by the top two.
Behind these assets are real-world cash flows—insurance payouts and loan interest—moved on-chain for faster settlement and transparent accounting. They rely on real cash flow income and are not concerned with coin price fluctuations.
On-chain lending and market-making categories each have scales in the two to three billion dollar range, while this category remains in the single-digit hundreds of millions. Compared to SOL's $63.8 billion market cap, it is less than one percent.
A 1% move in SOL's market cap equals $638 million, which is more than this entire category. Therefore, the inflows and outflows of this category currently do not affect the coin price; price changes remain the coin's own business.
However, its direction is worth watching. The rapid inflow of this money indicates that institutions are willing to place real assets on this chain for settlement, rather than just trading on it.Tonight I continue to be bearish; the selling pressure on BTC and ETH hasn't stopped yet.
My view:
Short-term bearish bias, wait for the rebound to be resisted, do not chase shorts at low levels.
Currently, BTC and ETH spot markets are continuously net selling, and the rebound lacks buying support, so I am holding my short positions.
—— BTC: Contract market warming up, spot market dragging behind ——
Last 1 hour
Contract: net inflow of $20.88 million
Spot: net outflow of $53.98 million
Last 4 hours
Contract: net outflow of $192 million
Spot: net outflow of $95.45 million
Short-term contract buying has appeared, but spot is still biased towards selling. I will first observe if this rebound can hold against subsequent selling pressure.
—— ETH: Both markets are net selling ——
Last 1 hour
Contract: net outflow of $223 million
Spot: net outflow of $47.29 million
Last 4 hours
Contract: net outflow of $598 million
Spot: net outflow of $141 million
ETH is the one I am more cautious about in the short term. Both contract and spot are weak simultaneously; whether the rebound can hold depends on buying improvement.
—— SOL: There is support, shorting requires picking the right position ——
Last 24 hours spot net inflow of $28.34 million, capital performance is better than BTC and ETH.
So tonight, the bearish focus is on BTC and ETH, while continuing to observe if SOL's support can continue.
My plan:
Do not chase lows to avoid being pulled back.
If spot turns strong and price breaks through and holds, then adjust the bearish view.
Being bearish is fine, but don’t stubbornly hold shorts to your own detriment. 83400, BTC has been consolidating at this level for two days. On the 13th, there was a sharp dip below 81000, causing over 700 million USD to be liquidated across the network, but it quickly bounced back above 83000. I've seen this pattern many times; it's not called stabilization, it's waiting for the referee.
The referee is tonight's 8:30 PM US September CPI. The nominal year-over-year expectation rose from 3.4% to 3.6%, mainly driven by oil prices; the core month-over-month expectation is 0.2%, which is actually milder than last month.
The problem is the context is different now. The Fed has already raised rates once in September, with rates at 3.75%-4.00%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield hovering around 5.2%. At times like this, talking about Bitcoin as an inflation hedge doesn't convince many; investors care more about how much interest they can earn by just holding cash. ETFs haven't helped either; from October 7 to 12, there was a net outflow of about 770 million USD, and ETH ETFs have been even worse, with ten consecutive days of outflows.
I tend to focus only on the core CPI tonight; the nominal figure is already priced in. If the core comes in at 0.2% or lower, after holding above 84000, BTC will likely test 85000; if the core jumps above 0.3%, a December rate hike is basically locked in, and 81000 might not hold, with 80000 as the next psychological support.
For those heavily leveraged, it's not shameful to lower your position before the data; we only play safe bets. During the ten minutes when the data is released, spikes can happen on both sides #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $BTC #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Market expectations are that Netflix's new subscriber growth pace will gradually slow, streaming inventory competition intensifies, and the space to drive revenue purely through price increases and new user acquisition is already limited. The global streaming market is becoming saturated, user subscription fatigue is setting in, coupled with competitor diversion, making it difficult for net new subscribers to replicate previous high growth, which is the core concern of the current market.
The ad-supported subscription tier is seen as a second growth curve. The low-priced ad-supported tier can attract price-sensitive users and earn additional advertising revenue without significantly increasing content costs. At the same time, Netflix is ramping up live sports and hit series ad presales, continuously attracting brand advertisers, which is expected to raise the per-user monetization value and offset the pressure from weak subscriber growth.
However, a rational view is needed: the overall base of the advertising business is still relatively small, and in the short term, it is difficult to fully make up for the decline in subscriber growth. It is also affected by corporate advertising budget cycles. If the macro environment tightens, brands will prioritize cutting marketing spending, making advertising revenue more elastic and volatile.
As a Nasdaq heavyweight, changes in Netflix's earnings expectations will affect sentiment in the tech sector. If advertising monetization exceeds expectations, it can easily boost the Nasdaq, indirectly supporting sentiment for BTC, ETH; conversely, if both subscriber and advertising results fall short of expectations, it will drag down risk appetite and disrupt high-beta assets.
Key follow-ups: ad tier penetration rate, ad fill rate, per-user revenue, and the management's medium- to long-term advertising revenue guidance. $BTC $ETH $ZEC What I fear most now is seeing people use "ZEC has a total supply of only 21 million" to persuade others to go all in.
This statement itself is not wrong, but the problem is, does a limited supply necessarily mean the price will rise?
If it were that simple, projects in the crypto space with a total supply even less than Bitcoin would have already taken off one by one.
ZEC's scarcity does have a basis, with a clear issuance cap and a halving mechanism. But ultimately, the price depends on whether people are willing to pay for it. If new demand doesn't keep up, even if the daily newly mined coins decrease, the price can still fall.
Moreover, miners have to pay for electricity and equipment, so they can't hold onto all the ZEC they mine. The actual amount of real sell orders in the market can't be calculated just by looking at the total supply.
I'm not bearish on Zcash; I just think many people like to use a single number to boost their confidence.
The real reasons that make me willing to keep holding $ZEC should be that privacy transactions are being used, wallet experience is improving, development is ongoing, and the market is willing to pay for these things.
If none of these exist and all that's left is "limited supply," then I really wouldn't dare to heavily invest.
For now, I tend to wait and see. If there is a breakout with volume or a stable pullback, then I'll consider participating in batches. Before the market moves, having fewer illusions is quite good.On October 14, interest rate expectation tools showed that after the September CPI release, the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in October rose from 21.6% to 43.7%. The recent increase reflects a clear warming of rate hike expectations, which, if sustained, could pressure risk assets like BTC, but the market's bet is not yet a Fed decision. Next, watch whether rate hike bets continue to rise and whether the Fed's statements support this round of expectation changes.
$BTC Take profit on cryptocurrency short positions and choose to go long on gold.
The trade is based on two logics:
First, interest rate pressure.
Second, global risk aversion, debt risk, and capital allocation needs.
My long position logic is not betting on “CPI being good for gold,” but rather the belief that:
After the negative news is released, if the market does not continue to drop sharply, it indicates that some pressure has been released, and gold may enter a recovery phase.
After today’s US CPI release, gold showed a clear pullback.
The reason is simple:
CPI higher than expected → market raises Fed tightening expectations → US Treasury yields rise → gold faces short-term pressure.
But my view is:
Short-term negative factors are valid, but this does not mean the medium- to long-term trend has changed. US September CPI and core CPI both came in higher than market expectations, indicating inflation has not been suppressed.
With high inflation, the Federal Reserve is even less willing to cut interest rates, and the timing of rate cuts may be delayed.
Cooling rate cut expectations → US Treasury yields tend to rise → Risk assets like Bitcoin come under pressure.
Core CPI annual rate at 2.6%, expected 2.5%; monthly rate at 0.3%, expected 0.2%, all exceeding expectations, signaling a rebound in inflation.
The market originally bet that the Fed could cut rates earlier, but this data will weaken rate cut expectations!
After the data release, the market has already started betting on three rate hikes next year.