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Yesterday it was still doubling, today it got hammered
$NEAR 5.03, down about 15%, yesterday it was still doubling, today it got hammered. On Monday it was the strongest asset in the market, up 118% in a month, leading the whole sector higher, but in one day it dropped from 5.6 to 5.0. This is the two sides of a strong stock: when it rises, money chases it; when it falls, profit-taking runs faster than anyone else. Its fundamentals haven't broken, but short-term sentiment is bad. The probability of a rate hike in October has surged to 53.7% following the CPI blowout. Bears can sleep easy, bulls should set their stop losses and alarms, and check their positions periodically. If the positions are gone, then you can rest assured.
My guess for the upcoming scenario is that tomorrow night’s PPI will likely push the probability even higher, triggering a wave of panic. Finally, at the FOMC meeting on October 28, the suspense will hover around 50%, but no rate hike will be made. After all, the midterm elections are coming up in November, so they need to save face. However, the pressure will shift to December, then to January 2027. The Fed folks always have this kind of attitude. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 CPI dropped in less than 2 hours.
The first wave of movement will be pure noise, either up or down.
No one knows which way it will go, so I don't trade this candle.
Zooming out: In the past 4 CPI reports, $BTC has risen at least 7% within a few days after each release.
Plus, Bitcoin is currently at HTF support levels, so I think reaching $90,000 before November is very likely. $ETH long position, 100x leverage, entry price 2578, mark price 2500, floating loss -303%. ZHIPU is even worse, 10x leverage long, already down -190%, liquidation price 42.44, just one step away from the current price. Combined margin of the two positions is less than 44U, lost 110U.
This is the cost of betting on data.
Going full leverage long before data release is like putting your life in the hands of a single candlestick. If ETH drops another 2.5%, this position goes to zero; ZHIPU drops another 22%, liquidation occurs. And that spike at midnight often happens within seconds after the data release.
The most ironic thing: tonight's core CPI month-on-month is 0.2%, clearly positive. But the 100x leveraged long position was already wiped out in the volatility before the positive news was realized.
Right direction, wrong leverage, still dead.
Three heartfelt suggestions:
1. Before data events, reduce leverage to below 5x or simply stay out and wait for the results;
2. $ETH 100x leverage with liquidation price less than $380 from current price, this kind of position is not trading, it's lottery ticket buying;
3. Floating loss of -300% means margin is almost wiped out, don't add margin, don't hold the position, liquidation won't reason with you. $ETH Funding rates have "spoken" in advance
Before the CPI release at 8:30 tonight, the rates have already given a signal. BTC shows slight positive values on both platforms (0.0039%, 0.0035%), with neither bulls nor bears daring to take heavy positions—support at 82,500 is repeatedly tested but not broken, and it can't break above 84,000; it is waiting for a signal.
ETH shows divergence: Platform B's current rate turns negative (-0.0043%), shorts start paying and short demand rises; Platform A's cumulative rate remains positive (0.0082%). Half are betting on a rebound, half on continued weakness, behind which is the continuous net outflow from spot ETFs and institutional interest clearly weaker than BTC. The divergence itself is a signal—ETH's directional sense is the weakest and most easily caught off guard by data.
SOL's cumulative rate is 0.0163% but real-time rate has dropped sharply to 0.0033%; those who previously went long are now pulling back, price has fallen from the high point to around 107, and bulls have lost the courage to add positions.
In summary: $BTC is balanced awaiting data, $ETH is in a divergent game, $SOL bulls are retreating.
The bigger picture is tighter: ETFs had a net outflow of 679 million last week, ETH outflow of 542 million; the US dollar index is at an 18-month high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5.2%. Weak funding rates + capital outflows + macro uncertainty, a triple overlay—the market is not unwilling to move, it dares not move.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Bitcoin miners are about to face a difficulty adjustment.
Around October 16, the difficulty is expected to increase by 5.68%.
Sounds like not much.
But it has a more direct consequence: with the same hash power, the amount of money mined will decrease by 5.37%.
Here’s how the 5.37% comes about.
There’s something called hashprice, which means how much you can earn per unit of hash power per day.
Right now, that number is 39.77 USD.
When difficulty rises, the same machine mining for the same day will get fewer coins.
Income will drop first.
The key is this number hasn’t deducted electricity costs yet.
So whether mining is truly profitable depends on two things: how much you earn and how much electricity costs.
Old miners with cheap electricity can still hold on.
New miners with expensive electricity are in danger.
Here’s a calculation:
For machines with efficiency of 20 joules per terahash, at 8 cents per kWh electricity price, the electricity cost alone eats up all the profit.
In other words, it’s not that mining less causes losses, but that electricity costs are higher than the income from mining.
So why is the difficulty suddenly adjusting?
Bitcoin automatically adjusts difficulty every 2016 blocks, aiming for an average of one block every ten minutes.
Because total hash power is increasing, blocks are being found faster, so difficulty must rise accordingly.
That’s also why it’s "expected" now, not "confirmed."
There are still over three hundred blocks left before the adjustment; during this time, price, hash power, and costs may all change.
The real watershed isn’t difficulty, it’s electricity price.
Miners with cheap electricity are expanding their machines.
Miners with expensive electricity are already shutting down.The US stock market opened on October 14, with the three major indices all opening lower. The Dow fell 0.19%, the S&P dropped 0.48%, and the Nasdaq was the worst, down 0.65%.
The reason is simple: the recent CPI data was too strong, with inflation higher than expected. The market is now starting to bet that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October. US Treasury yields surged directly to 5.26%, the dollar is also rising, and gold has fallen below 4100. Money has become more expensive, so stocks naturally fall; the logic is that straightforward.
For Bitcoin, with the US stock market opening in the red, the crypto market can't expect to independently turn green in the short term. The 827 threshold has already been broken, and now it depends on how the US stock market performs in the first half hour after opening—
If the Nasdaq continues to widen its losses, Bitcoin is very likely to fail to hold the 82000-81500 range, and the next support to watch is 80000. If the Nasdaq opens lower but can pull back, and US Treasury yields fall back from 5.26%, Bitcoin will have a chance to fake a breakout and rebound to 82800-83400. When US stocks fall, Bitcoin struggles to stand alone. $BTC $ETH #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC today will be a highly volatile day.
Obviously, due to CPI data being higher than expected, risk assets are temporarily being sold off.
Now we see positions being rebuilt, many of which are shorts. Of course, this does not necessarily mean these shorts will be squeezed, but usually, this leads to increased volatility for the rest of the day.
Short squeezes become interesting when reclaiming $83K+, which is roughly the average entry price of these positions.
So please keep a close eye on that area. Big Brother Maji has again injected margin into his $ETH long position, forcibly pushing the liquidation price down from 2481 to 2395. He's determined to be an "undying bull."
In seven days, he lost 11.27 million USD. Every time there's a crash, you can see Maji taking the hit. The most absurd part is this roller coaster: this morning, his account still showed a profit of 5.46 million USD, but now the entire account only has 562,000 left.
However, this level of volatility is routine for him. With this margin top-up, he only gained about 100 USD of buffer. But ETH's current price is hovering around 2500, with 25x leverage and a 13.65K ETH position, so he's still only about 100 USD away from liquidation.
Even worse is the net value shrinkage: as BTC and ETH both dropped more than 5% in a day, the net value of his long positions fell from 12 million yesterday to 2 million now, losing 10 million in just over a day.
Moreover, his HYPE, PUMP, and BTC long positions were all stopped out two hours ago, leaving only this ETH long position. Unfortunately, this one isn't safe either, with a liquidation price of 2471, just 40 dollars below the current price of 2500. In plain terms, adding margin is like pouring water into a leaking bucket. He's not waiting for a rebound. He's waiting for a "non-liquidation" miracle. The more margin he adds, the more it shows he refuses to admit defeat; the more margin he adds, the closer he actually is to liquidation, not further away.Conclusion first: Today $TRUTH surged 38%, with a trading volume of 127 million dollars, and I didn't buy a single cent.
It's not that I don't recognize this coin. It's just that after four consecutive days of rallying, I kept "waiting and watching" every day, and on the fifth day when volume accelerated, I became even more hesitant to act.
Some key numbers: 0.013 plateaued on the platform for six days, then rallied with four consecutive 4H bullish candles, the last candle's volume was 7 times the average of the previous six. But the funding rate is still negative (-0.025%)—the rally isn't driven by leverage, spot traders are absorbing it. Open interest is only 4.35 million dollars, with a very high daily turnover rate.
The overall market had 159 down and 87 up, median -0.7%, and it completely moved against the trend.
Lesson: On the fourth day when it broke through, my hands itched the most, but discipline said "chasing on the fourth day is catching the tail of the fish." I didn't buy today, not because of a correct judgment, but because I couldn't resist.
For this kind of independently strong coin, do you chase on the fourth day or wait for a pullback? $TRUTHAfter the CPI release
US stock futures: S&P 500 about -0.3%, Nasdaq 100 about -0.5% to -0.6%, Dow about -0.2%
• 10-year US Treasury yield: jumped from about 5.19% to about 5.29%; 2-year rose to about 4.91%
• October rate hike probability: increased from about 22% to about 39% — the core 0.3% weight is mainly reflected here
• Bitcoin retreated to around $82,700$BAT
Brave's browser gives BAT a real distribution channel most tokens lack: a product people actually use. The idea is to reward attention rather than exploit it. Still, a large user base doesn't guarantee token demand. The question is how much of that usage flows through the token and stays there.Brothers, this is hilarious 😂
Big bro Maji is adding margin again to his ETH long position, pushing the liquidation price down to 2395.
It was 2481 before, now 2395. In seven days, he lost 11.27 million USD. Every time there's a crash, you can always see Maji taking a beating.
At 10:05, his account still had an unrealized profit of 5.46 million. Now the whole account only has 562,000 left. Of course, this kind of volatility is routine for him.
He added about 100 USD as a buffer. But ETH's current price is hovering around 2500.
With 25x leverage and 13.65K ETH, he's still 100 bucks away from liquidation.
BTC and ETH dropped more than 5% in a day, and Maji's long position net value fell from 12 million yesterday to 2 million now. Over a day, he lost 10 million.
HYPE, PUMP, and BTC longs were all closed two hours ago. Now only the ETH long remains. This position isn't safe either, liquidation price is 2471, just 40 bucks away from the current price.
Adding margin is basically pouring water into a leaking bucket.
He's not waiting for a rebound. He's waiting for a miracle that won't blow up.
The more he adds, the more it shows he doesn't want to admit defeat. The more he adds, the more it shows—he's actually not any closer to liquidation.
Young people, don't learn from the whales holding positions. You think they're gambling with their lives, but actually, they're gambling on how many bullets they have left.The CPI arrived as scheduled at 8:30, and outside people are shouting $ETH waterfall. To be honest, that's still an exaggeration. As shown in the chart, the 1-minute $ETH at 8:30 didn't even touch the upper edge of the box before dropping, and the lower position was just at the lower edge of the box. Then it consolidated at the lower edge. Actually, looking at the earlier position today, it has been oscillating within this box, but it turned the $ETH 15-30 minute line into a 1-minute line. After all, with the event #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期, the strength is actually moderate.I can already smell the burnt scent on this $APT dish — the short-term RSI has burned up to 70.3, black smoke is rising from the pan's edge, and with a couple more shakes, it'll turn to charcoal.
It rose 4.41% in 24H, sounding like a freshly cooked beautiful burnt crust, but when you lift the lid and look inside: the price is already standing at 120% of the short-term Bollinger Band, meaning it not only touched the upper band but forcibly pierced through it by 0.6%, while there's still a 3.7% gap to the lower band. This plating is a typical "burnt outside, raw inside." The mid-term Bollinger Band is at 97%, with the upper band just 0.2% overhead, meaning the plate has already reached the serving window with no second layer to stack.
Looking at the long-term RSI, it's only 54.1, a neutral clear broth base, which hasn't kept up with the boiling spicy oil of the short-term. The imbalance between short-term and long-term in this dish is typical of seasoning overpowering the main course — whoever chases now will get a sore throat.
So my approach is: serve it in reverse.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.64 (current price +2.0%)
Take Profit 1: 0.59 (-6.1%)
Take Profit 2: 0.60 (-4.9%)
Stop Loss: 0.70 (+12.1%)
Why set the entry 2.0% above? It's like waiting for the pot to roll back once before scooping, letting the last batch of chasing buyers push the oil temperature to its peak, then I skim the oil as it cools down. Both take profit targets are within about 5%, the safest zone to separate meat from bone — not greedy for the fattiest bite, because that part usually has sinew. The stop loss is set 12.1% above; honestly, this stop loss is a bit far, essentially giving this dish an excess of extra spicy chili space; when actually cooking, I treat this position like "sprinkling a pinch of chili powder," definitely not dumping a whole spoonful in. Leverage is the extra spicy chili — a few drops add aroma, but pouring half a bottle will burn through your intestines; the one going to the hospital won't be the market, but yourself.
As for the ratio: mainstream coins are my main course, $APT is like pepper powder seasoning, and its portion in the entire portfolio must not exceed a pinch. Now it's overcooked on the short-term but still raw on the long-term; this dish itself shouldn't be served alone. The 4.41% 24H gain is like the last sprinkle of scallions on top — looks good but not chewy.
My trading logic is simple: while the plating is still at a high point, serve this dish out; don't wait for the guests to find the inside is cold.
The moment the closing price hits the Bollinger upper band and RSI crosses 70, the fire can't be turned off — I don't put out the fire, I pull the pot.Large scale, how much profit is actually made?
For $AAVE, I first look at the money lent out.
Users deposit assets, which only provide funds for lending services. Loans generate interest, part of which goes into the protocol treasury according to each asset's reserve factor.
So after deposits increase, you still need to see if anyone borrows, how much they borrow, and how much interest they pay.
For a simple example: if deposits double but borrowing demand doesn't keep up, income may not double.
I look at actual borrowing, interest rates, and treasury income together, then study how much can be allocated to support the token's value. A large fund pool is worth noting, but there may also be a lot of idle money.
For $FIL, I care more about how much storage fees customers are willing to pay.
Storage providers' income comes from both customer payments and network block rewards; providing services also requires locking FIL as collateral.
Therefore, as more data is stored, it's necessary to check if fees keep pace.
If growth mainly relies on rewards to attract supply rather than customers continuously paying for services, the value is different. I prioritize evidence of renewals and payment amounts.
For $UNI, after seeing impressive trading volume, I then analyze fee distribution.
Trading fees compensate liquidity providers, and in some cases, part of the fees go into the protocol.
So you can't take all trading fees and directly assign them to token valuation.
Different versions and pools have different fee rules that need to be broken down, then see how much actually enters token-related mechanisms. Trading volume is the entry point; how the money is finally distributed is the next step.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September CPI today: overall month-over-month +0.6%, year-over-year +3.7%; core month-over-month +0.3%, year-over-year +2.6%. The main reason is a sharp 9.1% increase in gasoline prices, with the core slightly exceeding market expectations (month-over-month about 0.2%, year-over-year about 2.5%). 👉🏻Short-term impact The hotter core data means the Fed's rate cut expectations will further cool down, and it is even possible that high interest rates will be maintained longer. Risk asset sentiment is likely to be pressured, with BTC, ETH, and others possibly experiencing initial pullbacks or intensified volatility. Although the market has partially priced in the overall rise driven by energy, the core exceeding expectations will still make capital more cautious. 👉🏻Long-term impact If subsequent inflation can ease from energy spillover, the Fed still has room to shift toward easing, which will support crypto in the mid to long term. Conversely, if the core remains sticky and the dollar and interest rate environment stay tight, it will drag down overall risk appetite, causing greater volatility in the crypto market. 👉🏻Comprehensive judgment Slightly negative in the short term, neutral to slightly positive in the mid to long term. This data itself is not explosively negative, but the core exceeding expectations raises the probability of "high interest rates lasting longer," making short-term sentiment pressure more obvious. 👉🏻Tips for beginners Don't blindly chase rises or falls just because of CPI data. The crypto market is sensitive to macro data, but the real direction is determined by capital flows and sentiment. Understanding the data before acting is more important than chasing hot topics. 👉🏻Is it suitable to enter the market now? It is not recommended to heavily enter now; you can wait for the market to fully digest the data At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the September CPI across the board exceeded expectations: overall year-on-year 3.7%, core year-on-year 2.6%, core month-on-month stuck at 0.3% for two consecutive months. Normally, this is a classic bearish combination: S&P futures turned down, 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 5.29%, 2-year yield rose 13 basis points to 4.92%, and the probability of a rate hike in October was pushed to around 50%. But $BTC's reaction was: sliding from around 84,000 to about 82,400, only down about 1% in 24 hours. $ETH was the same, at $2,464, down 1.5%, not even touching key levels.
What does this mean? It means the truly “hawkish” part was already fully priced in this morning. I wrote earlier in the morning that the market had preemptively realized the hawkish expectations: continuous ETF outflows, yields taking off early, prices suppressed below 84,000. So after the data release, what the market punished was not the “inflation exceeding expectations” news itself, but rather clearing out the remaining bit of hope. When bad news is priced in without a crash, it is often one of the strongest short-term signals; at least the bears did not dare to launch a second wave at this time.
But don’t rush to call a reversal. After tonight, the game changes. Before CPI, the market traded on “what the data is,” after CPI, it trades on “what the Fed will do.” Core month-on-month at 0.3% for two consecutive months means inflation stickiness is confirmed, and the October rate hike is back on the table. This is the real situation for $BTC now$XAU Gold at 4090, what are you still hesitating about?
Doubting the bulls just because gold is pulling back? I can only say that when it rallies again, many will complain it's too expensive.
My view has always been clear: bullish on gold in the medium to long term, and short-term pullbacks are actually worth paying attention to.
Gold has been hard currency since ancient times, with global central banks continuously allocating gold, and ETF funds also reflecting the market's demand for gold allocation. But short-term trends can't be judged solely by safe-haven logic; U.S. inflation, the dollar's movement, and Fed rate expectations remain key factors influencing gold prices.
Currently, gold has fallen back to around $4090. Data-driven volatility does increase short-term uncertainty. But if support holds after the pullback and buyers return, this could actually offer a better opportunity to position.
I like this kind of trending market—no need for daily surges, as long as the big picture doesn't change, just patiently wait for opportunities. In terms of trading, consider scaling in gradually, don't blindly chase highs, and don't easily turn bearish just because of a temporary pullback.
As for $5000, I still hold expectations. But a target is a target, and trading is trading—don't treat optimism as a guaranteed rise, nor use long-term logic as a reason to hold through short-term losses. Keep your position steady to wait for the trend to truly emerge. #沙特阿美总部遇袭，原油供应受关注 Put/call skew flattens: institutions aren't chasing upside, they're buying $78K–$80K puts as insurance. Spot holds, hedges on. That's a range market with a tail — not a blow-off top.$FIL needs close attention these days! The halving cycle is coming soon. Although the expectation has already been reflected in the market and it has doubled in the past two months, there may still be intense volatility after the halving starts, and even a major crash might occur. In my view, the halving of production and the team's lock-up are definitely long-term positives, because from the start of the halving, market selling pressure will decrease by 75% year-over-year compared to now. Although buying and selling will still tug back and forth, the logic has shifted from selling pressure exceeding buying pressure to being evenly matched or buying pressure possibly overwhelming selling pressure after some positive news! What I really worry about now is that spot holders who previously bought at costs of tens or even hundreds will take advantage of this positive news to sell, which is definitely unfavorable for the current market, but this is all short-term. Personally, I plan to go long on $FIL for the long term, so short-term volatility won't affect me! Compared to the previous pre-market data, the decline in individual storage stocks has slightly narrowed. SK Hynix and SanDisk SNDK's downward momentum has slowed, Micron is basically flat, and panic selling in the early session has eased somewhat. However, AI computing power leaders collectively turned from red to green, with Nvidia and Meta weakening, and only a few stocks closing higher. The buying momentum in the tech sector has clearly weakened.
The Asia-Pacific market's storage sector saw a brief recovery, but overseas storage stocks failed to turn positive, only narrowing their losses rather than reversing the trend. This is merely a stop-loss battle after an oversell.
Transmitted to the A-shares market, the slowdown in overseas storage declines can alleviate the pressure of a sharp drop in the storage sector tomorrow. However, major companies remain generally weak, making a strong rebound difficult. Any rally is likely to face profit-taking. Meanwhile, the weakness of Nvidia and Meta suppresses sentiment in domestic computing power and media sectors, and Lumentum's decline also drags down expectations for optical modules.
Regarding $SNDK, it is currently only a brief pause in the downtrend, with insufficient bullish strength. Rebounds can be used as opportunities to position short orders, maintaining a weak outlook in the short term.
⚠️ Market views shared only, not investment advice The moment I woke up, the string of numbers on my phone screen seemed to have a corner quietly erased by someone✨ Floating profit dropped by three hundred thousand US dollars, how would you handle the direction in your hands? Last night's market was actually very representative. ETH was repeatedly tugged above 2500; many took it as a signal that "finally it's time to go long," but what I saw was a repeatedly tested distribution range. The point in this trader's record that struck me the most was not how much floating profit he lost, but that he clearly said: the short position at BTC 83491 was the one with the highest floating profit and is still held now. The amount of information behind this sentence is much greater than it appears on the surface. First, look at the facts. ETH 2500 was repeatedly mentioned as a short point, and the price did indeed hover around this level. BTC had a rebound near 83491 but overall did not break out of the resistance zone. Altcoins fell more directly, with both short positions hitting full profit margins. ZEC was singled out for observation due to its high volatility. Putting these details together, it looks more like a trend entering a divergence phase rather than a clean start or continuation. What is the market trading? I think the core is event repricing. With CPI about to be released, Hamarck again signaling further rate hikes, semiconductor sector sell-offs, and South Korea's KOSPI dropping over 6%, these external signals combined are suppressing risk appetite. The rebounds in BTC and ETH seem more like short covering and short-term sentiment repair rather than new funds willing to continuously take over at this level. In other words SNDK at $1420, do you dare to bottom-fish?
Falling from 2354 to 1400, everyone is shouting "AI storage bubble burst," but just now, Binance perpetual futures bounced back from 1401 to 1420, and the funding rate is still positive—so is this a bear trap by the manipulators using bad news to shake out weak hands, or is the AI storage bubble really about to burst?
Let's look at the surface first: it's bad, really bad.
Retracted 40% from the June ATH of 2354, with a continuous downtrend recently, hitting a low of 1401 on October 13. Broadcom's CEO's comment crashed the entire semiconductor sector, China's CXMT progress scared the market, and worries about flash memory price volatility are everywhere.
But look at the chart—1400 hasn't been broken, the underlying stock closed yesterday pulling back to the 1480s. This morning pre-market is back to 1420-1440. The candlesticks tell you: 1400 is a tested iron bottom recently, volume hasn't spiked extremely during the decline, and the oversold zone has been reached. All signals are shouting one thing: this is an emotion-driven pullback, not a fundamental collapse.
First thing: Did Broadcom's CEO's comment really scare the market that much?
Broadcom's CEO said AI financing has constraints, the entire SOX sector pulled back, and SNDK got hit along with it.
Sounds scary? But think about it—has AI capital expenditure really stopped? Cloud providers and AI labs are still frantically building data centers, NAND/SSD is the most critical supporting component after GPUs. Multiple institutions maintain expectations of tight NAND supply and demand in 2026, supporting prices.
What is a false sell-off? This is it. Sector sentiment dragged good companies down together. Retail investors panic that the "AI bubble burst," while smart money quietly buys near 1400.
Second thing: China's CXMT competition? Long-term shadow, short-term noise.
CXMT's progress indeed triggered short-term panic about high-end storage competition. But look at SNDK's fundamentals:
Pure NAND flash player, vertically integrated with Kioxia
TTM revenue about $20 billion, EPS about 74, volume and price both rising
Current TTM PE about 20, forward PE only around 7
Market cap 210 billion, analyst consensus "buy," average target price 2173
Current price 1420, target price 2173, a 50% gap in between. You tell me this is a bubble?
Compare: Nvidia's forward PE? 30x. SNDK only 7x. This is not a bubble, this is a discount.
Third thing: A technical signal that must be taken seriously has appeared.
Retracted 40% from ATH, YTD still up over 500%, 1-year up over 1000%. This is a typical normal pullback after a surge, not a trend reversal.
Support: 1400 (iron bottom, multiple tests) → 1350 (extreme case)
Resistance: 1480-1500 (previous close + round number) → 1600 → 1700
Catalyst: Earnings report after market close on October 29, market expects EPS about 46
Daily/4H charts are weak, short-term moving averages are resistance, but after a large pullback, it has entered oversold territory, a technical rebound is imminent. Funding rate is positive (8-hour 0.02-0.04%), indicating bulls still want to hold positions.
But remember—perpetual futures have leverage, volatility will be amplified. If 1400 breaks down with volume, the next target is 1350 or even lower.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
AI data center NAND demand continues to explode
Analyst average target price 2173, 50% upside
Forward PE only 7x, valuation is cheap
1400 iron bottom tested multiple times, oversold rebound imminent
October 29 earnings catalyst approaching
On the other side:
Broadcom's comments triggered concerns about AI spending sustainability
China's CXMT long-term competition shadow
Semiconductor sector overall technical correction
Short-term moving averages bearish, sentiment fragile
If 1400 breaks, it may trigger bull stop-losses
Key level 1420, only $20 above the death line 1400.
Resistance above: 1480-1500 → 1600 → 1700 → analyst target 2173
Support below: 1400 (iron bottom) → 1350 → 1000 (extreme)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Light long positions near 1400 if it stabilizes (watch for volume rebound or lower shadow), stop loss 1350-1380. First target 1480-1520, then reduce or switch to defense. If it breaks 1400 and can't recover, wait or lightly short. Funding rate positive, suitable for short swings, don't hold stubbornly.
Mid-term players:
Build long positions in batches between 1400-1450, target 1600-1800 (expectation heating before earnings). Control position before earnings or hedge with options/small leverage. Buying on pullbacks is better than chasing highs, much better value than June highs.
Risk control rules:
High Beta + perpetual futures, single trade risk no more than 1-2% of account
Total position not too heavy, keep enough cash
Watch underlying stock intraday moves, NAND price data, MU and other storage stock correlations
If earnings miss expectations or NAND guidance weakens, another sell-off possible
SNDK now is like Nvidia in 2023—
After a surge, a 40% pullback, everyone shouts "bubble burst," but earnings come out and it doubles.
You fear the pullback, others fear missing the ride.
If you don't dare to buy at 1400, will you chase at 2000 after earnings?
$BTC $NVDA $SNDK $BTC data first dropped nearly a thousand dollars, now hovering around 82,700. At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US September CPI will be released: overall year-on-year 3.7%, month-on-month 0.6%, basically within expectations—September's gasoline surge, everyone knows the headline looks bad. The real pain is in the core: month-on-month 0.3%, exactly the same as August, while the market expected it to drop to 0.2%; year-on-year also rose to 2.6%.
Overall, the focus is on oil prices, the core is about stickiness. The core hasn't come down for two consecutive months, indicating that the September rate hike was just the beginning—before the Fed meeting on October 27-28, this is the last piece of the puzzle. Before tonight, the market was betting "no move in October, hike in December," but now the October card is back on the table. The 10-year US Treasury yield instantly jumped to 5.31%, which is the real thing crushing risk assets: it's not the CPI itself falling, but the repricing of rate hike expectations.
In plain terms: $BTC has been repeatedly tested between 81,000–82,500 these past two days; tonight is the touchstone. Holding this level means the bears' strength on data night ends here, and bulls can still look for a rebound window around 84,000; breaking it will head toward 80,000, and the weak will be weeded out first—$ETH fell 0.95% in 24h, underperforming BTC's 0.59%, altcoins will suffer even more than BTC. Before tomorrow's PPI release, this market is not for bottom hunters; there is plenty of room on the right side.Today, my watchlist is mostly green, but the whales are playing three completely different games:
$BTC is real spot trading with genuine exchanges. Coinbase premium has turned negative, institutions are selling at a discount; however, on-chain over 30,000 coins have been withdrawn this month, and whales are quietly accumulating again. This kind of tug-of-war often signals a market shift; once the chips are exchanged, a new direction emerges.
HYPE is purely a contract battlefield, with almost no spot trading. On Hyperliquid, short positions net $225 million, with an account shorting since last September still holding on despite a $23 million unrealized loss. No matter how much it rallies, it’s just hot air; without spot support, it can crash anytime.
OKB has fundamentals and a story, but sentiment hasn’t picked up, RSI is only 41, so it’s just following the market’s slow decline. However, there is capital absorbing around 125, indicating big players are betting on its transformation from a platform token to a stock settlement infrastructure. Whales are most likely either holding long-term or gambling on the next wave of sentiment-driven speculation.
Three scripts, three rhythms—don’t use the same position strategy for all.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 CPI exceeds expectations, core inflation does not cool down: Will the October rate hike be brought forward?
The data is out and leans hawkish. US September CPI: overall year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), month-on-month 0.6% as expected; but the Fed's key focus, core month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%), core year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%) — both core figures exceed expectations, cooling off failed.
Market reacted quickly: 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.3%, consensus on no rate hike in October begins to loosen, bets on another hike in December continue to heat up. BTC dropped about $1,000 in response, now around $82,400. Oil prices are the main culprit pushing the overall up (gasoline +9.1% monthly), but the core not cooling down is the real trouble for the Fed.
Next to watch is the FOMC on October 27-28. Core month-on-month has been 0.3% for two consecutive months, leaving less room to "wait and see." For the crypto space, a stronger dollar and US Treasury yields are direct headwinds — don’t rush to bottom-fish tonight, let the dust settle a bit.
Risk warning: Macro data fluctuates sharply before and after release, participate cautiously. For reference only, not investment advice.
#BTCBerkshire adds $330 million, Bending Spoons surges 32% pre-market, what's the story behind this "App Harvester" favored by Buffett?
Market overview: OKX xBSP pre-market quote at 47.72, 24h up 25%, surged past 49.51 then pulled back; trading volume 14.23 million USDT, turnover rate only 0.13%, low-liquidity pre-market token, a few million U can easily push out a big bullish candle.
Strong catalyst: Berkshire added $330 million investment, private placement of 10 million shares at $33 each; combined with $600 million invested at IPO, Buffett has bet nearly $1 billion in two rounds. Bending Spoons is an Italian app group, having acquired Evernote and Meetup, also acquiring Miro and Airtable, Q2 earnings per share $0.46 beating expectations, revenue $704 million beating expectations.
But to pour cold water: P/E ratio 266, RSI 99, pre-market surge to 49.51 has already overextended; placement price $33 is Buffett's cost line, current price 47.72 is 40% higher than big money's cost — big names backing it is a real signal, but chasing high premiums requires caution. Pre-market low liquidity means volatility will only increase after official open.
Watch the psychological anchor at the $33 placement price, if it breaks the support at 46.16; at US market open, see if BSP can hold steady, only then can we talk about a second wave. DYOR, not investment advice.
#BSP #Berkshire #USStockTokenUS September CPI broadly exceeded expectations, posing a macro downside risk to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Macro logic: Inflation has risen for three consecutive months, core inflation remains stubborn, the Fed's rate cut expectations are forced to be delayed, and the high interest rate environment continues to suppress crypto asset valuations. Before the data release, BTC was fluctuating around $83,000, ETH was weaker, having dropped nearly 10% over the past week.
BTC key levels: There is strong support from the 400-day moving average around $81,000 below, and $77,000 to $79,000 is the next major absorption zone. $83,300 above is an important watershed; holding above it could lead to a challenge of $85,000 to $86,500. If core CPI exceeds expectations, BTC may first test below $80,000 or even $81,000.
ETH key levels: $2,500 is the lifeline—both a round number and the resistance level before the September breakout; a daily close below it would damage the upward structure. Strong support below is near $2,400, which has successfully reversed price multiple times.
Strategy advice: Slippage is very high at the moment of data release; avoid one-sided bets. It is advisable to wait for the data to settle, observe the high point of the first 15-minute candle as a trend confirmation signal, then look for entry opportunities. $ETH $BTC Circulating supply is only 23.3%: Behind HYPE's 78.1 billion valuation, how many people haven't entered yet?
Looking at $HYPE's valuation, just looking at market cap can be misleading. Current data: circulating supply is about 222.46 million tokens, total supply about 955.31 million tokens, with a circulation ratio of only 23.3%. Current market cap is about $18.21 billion, fully diluted valuation about $78.19 billion — the latter is 4.29 times the former. To put it simply: only a small fraction is trading on the market now, more than three-quarters of the tokens haven't been released yet. Low circulation ratio has two sides. On the positive side, the float is light, so when demand comes, price elasticity is high; on the negative side, future supply release is a looming variable, and when tokens are released, the market needs enough support to absorb them.
So I don't simply take low circulation as a bullish sign. What really matters are two things: whether demand growth can outpace supply release, and whether buybacks and burns can absorb some of the pressure. Platform revenue is there, which is the confidence on the demand side. Valuation is a race between demand and supply, and I’m betting on demand. Diamond hands.The $BTC wick timing is very interesting: 20:30 Beijing time, which converts to 08:30 Eastern Time, exactly one hour before the US stock market opens.
Characteristics of this time period: Asian session is ending, European session is quiet, US stock market hasn't opened yet, order books are thinnest, and big money loves to sweep losses during this window.
The wick was immediately pulled back, what does this indicate? It means there is real buying interest waiting below at 82,700; it's not that no one is taking the orders, but someone is waiting to catch them.
Technical aspect: BTC surged to 84,147 yesterday but failed to hold; bullish momentum is weakening and a pullback to confirm support is needed. This wick is that pullback, just a bit more violent in form.
Conclusion: 82,700 is a valid support level, expect continued range-bound oscillation. ETH leading the decline is a warning, keep an eye on ETH stabilizing.$KORU
I am currently clearly bearish. Looking ahead to the close of the US stock market on Friday, the priority target is 13.58; if it breaks below that, then 13.12, and in extreme scenarios, 12.70.
Today, US CPI exceeded expectations, and KORU quickly dropped from around 14.40 to 13.64. I believe this decline is not just a simple shakeout but the market beginning to reprice.
Actually, the Korean market had already signaled this. The KOSPI rose over 2% in early trading but ended up closing lower, with foreign investors selling about 1.18 trillion KRW in a single day. ASML’s long-term outlook remains good, but Samsung and Hynix still lack sustained buying.
I think the issue is not with AI fundamentals now, but that the market had previously priced in too much growth for the next few years. Positive news has been realized with no buyers, inflation exceeded expectations, so capital naturally starts to withdraw.
Next, I mainly watch two paths:
Main path: 13.73 → 13.58 → 13.12 → 12.70.
Alternate path: 13.73 → 14.00–14.25 → 13.58 → 13.12.
TSMC’s earnings report on Thursday is a key variable, but I don’t currently believe a good earnings report alone can reverse the capital outflow trend.
Above 14.90 is where I would reassess the bearish logic.
I won’t chase shorts around 13.73 now; I prefer to wait for a rebound to provide an opportunity. What I’m watching is the second wave of decline after the withdrawal of capital from Korean semiconductors, not just betting on a single bearish candle.A few days ago, I bought $AGPU. I just saw that AGPU officially announced a partnership with the Nasdaq-listed company Penguin. Before this, it was listed on Binance's bstocks. Actually, I had been paying attention earlier, but it was inconvenient to buy before it was listed on Binance. After it was listed, I still hesitated for a while, actually waiting for a better entry point. Since I didn't get that, I just bought it directly, so now I'm stuck.
I want to recharge my faith with two reasons why it's worth holding.
First, the company changed its business in 2025 to AI infrastructure/GPU computing power services, which aligns with current trends.
Second, the market cap is very low. Although a low market cap alone isn't a reason to buy a stock, this is not just about a low market cap; after the transformation, it already has 3.4 billion in contract orders. However, these contracts represent revenue to be delivered and recognized over many years. Today's official announcement of cooperation with $PENG can increase the certainty of turning these orders into revenue, because AGPU is responsible for where the orders come from, while $PENG is responsible for subsequent delivery and operations. Being able to convert orders into revenue together in the future is very strong.After some thought, the current market's continuous decline is not due to a single event, but rather the combined effect of forces on three levels.
On the macro level, the Federal Reserve has sent hawkish signals. The September meeting minutes showed that most officials support continuing rate hikes, dashing the market's original expectation of an "end to rate hikes." U.S. Treasury yields surged accordingly, causing funds to withdraw from high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum that do not generate interest.
On the capital level, ETFs and institutions are continuously retreating. The Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, with cumulative outflows exceeding $630 million since October. More critically, BitMine has explicitly capped its ETH holdings at 5% of the total supply, currently holding 4.9%, just about 77,000 coins short of the limit. At the current pace, it will stop buying within about a month.
On the structural level, there is a long squeeze. Bitcoin repeatedly faced resistance in the 8.3-8.7 range, with a large accumulation of leveraged long positions below. After the price broke key support, these longs were forcibly liquidated, creating a chain reaction of "decline → liquidation → further decline." On October 12 alone, liquidations exceeded $770 million, with longs accounting for nearly 90%.
The SNDK and ZHIPU positions I hold happen to be caught in this crowded long structure. I have merely become cannon fodder of the times.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Calm down Evening Review | 4 Sector Rotation · On-Chain Whales | 10/14 | 🟡 Watching CPI landing hotter than expected, whales' holdings remain stable but prices are under pressure.
Real On-Chain (Bullish): Whales hit a new high of 3.03 million BTC, added 15,000 BTC ($1.2B) in 72h, Bull Score 80, ETF turned positive with about 2,300 BTC.
CPI Actual: Annual rate 3.7% (est. 3.6) / Core monthly rate 0.3% (est. 0.2) / Core annual rate 2.6% (est. 2.5) — all three core metrics exceeded expectations, gasoline pushed higher but core inflation has spread.
Market Reaction:
BTC failed to hold 84k, dropped from 83.8k to 82.8k (-1000), currently $82,774;
10Y yield rose 9bp to 5.31%;
Nasdaq futures down 0.65%.
Logic: Bulls betting "bad news priced in" got proven wrong, buying the expectation but selling the fact + core overheating = double whammy.
Discipline: Still holding above 82k, no position reduction triggered;
Trigger points: yearly moving average $78,599 / recovery above $85,000.
CPI hotter than expected raises rate hike expectations, short-term bearish but whales have not exited.
$BTC #OnChainWhales #4SectorRotation #CPI
For information sharing only, not investment advice. Detailed interpretation of September CPI data: the actual data situation may be more hawkish than the current surface data! After breaking down the BLS September CPI data, I found that the data might be more hawkish than the initial surface data suggested. The core is not the nominal CPI at 3.7%, but rather the assessment through three layers: energy, core goods, and core services: 1. Energy is the core factor supporting the nominal inflation data in September. 2. Core goods have reappeared with price pressure; the inflation transmission problem caused by energy has initially manifested. 3. Core services have not cooled down; instead, they accelerated from 0.3% to 0.4%, which is the most unfavorable part for the Fed. #US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations. Therefore, this data means that the September CPI increase is not simply due to a one-time energy shock. After proposing that the one-time energy shock caused the nominal inflation rise, core goods and core services also increased, representing a secondary transmission of energy. The nominal monthly inflation rate of 0.6% is actually not scary because the data proves it comes from the shock caused by rising energy prices, which is a phased or one-time shock. The market or Fed's biggest concern is the secondary transmission and diffusion of inflation, and core goods and core services prove this worry. Meanwhile, housing inflation within core services remains a core "stubborn problem." After the September CPI data release, the CME probabilities for rate hikes in October and December did not change much, but half an hour later, this detailed data has fully fermented. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October is at 21% I am almost completely not worried that my long position on $BTC will lose money! First, the market indeed dropped about 1500 points as I predicted, and I also added to my position accordingly!
Secondly, I said that when $BTC data is released, the data itself is generally not important; it is used to coordinate liquidity sweeps. So when it first drops, I firmly go long!
Thirdly, Jin10 plus CPI and all sorts of chaotic consultations are aggressively pushing bearish news, like rising government bond yields and bets on rate hikes! In my view, none of that matters; only the market action matters!
The fact is, despite so much bearish news, $BTC did not fall below 82,000, which shows the market does not want it to go down! It's simple, just see if my judgment is right!
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ Draft (CPI reaction, data as of tonight 20:30)
September CPI came in hot across the board: headline 3.7% YoY (vs 3.6% expected), core 2.6% (vs 2.5%), and core MoM stuck at 0.3% instead of cooling to 0.2%. The pass-through question got answered — energy (+20.4% YoY, gasoline +9.1% MoM) is spilling into core, and the December hike trade just got its best argument. BTC is holding $82–83k for now, but the setup changed: the market no longer has to imagine the hike case, it just got the receipt.$BNB looks weak in the short term, 737.22 is already close to today's low. The leverage basically hasn't moved today. Both long and short liquidations are only a few tens of thousands of dollars, almost invisible against the 410 million positions. The bulls haven't been squeezed out, and the shorts haven't been forced to cover. The price is slowly grinding down, with no forced liquidations driving it, nor any new leverage coming in to chase a rebound; the market is just burning through old positions. The fee rate is close to zero, just background noise. The chart shows the high point being raised; only if the previous low is broken will it be considered a breakdown. The price is now just a bit away from the previous low, with the short-position moving averages pressing down from above. This upward structure won't hold for long. I judge the previous low will be broken, followed by a new low. Conditions to turn bullish: retake and hold above 747.5, which means today's high is reclaimed and the bearish outlook is invalidated. Exceeding expectations by 3.7% directly increases the uncertainty of a rate hike in October, gold plummets, government bonds hit new highs, with a chance to see BTC starting with 7$ETH What a real shock! The whale must have had insider information, otherwise how could they have pulled a one-hour breakeven liquidation of long positions!!
September CPI released, year-on-year 3.7% exceeding expectations (expected 3.6%), core even harsher at 2.6% year-on-year (expected 2.5%), month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%).
The main cause is the surge in gasoline prices, but the core is also accelerating, indicating pressure beyond just energy.
After the CPI release, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to around 5.3%, the 2-year yield jumped significantly, and the probability of a rate hike in October doubled from 22% to nearly 40%, hitting risk assets hard.
$BTC is clearly under short-term pressure, having fallen back to around 82.6K.
Rising US Treasury yields plus increasing rate hike expectations are headwinds for crypto and growth stocks; first, watch if the 82k level can hold.
If it breaks, it may further test 80k or even lower.
Gold $XAU and the Nasdaq also face valuation pressure.
In the medium term, if energy prices remain high and the core inflation does not cool down, the Fed’s rate hike path by year-end will be tougher, and risk assets will likely remain weak and volatile.
But if subsequent PCE or employment data soften, the market may reprice to "only one hike."
The key is to watch next week’s data and oil price trends; don’t rush to bottom-fish, wait and see. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $TRUTH The second highest gainer TRUTH, don't rush to short it, this coin has no spot market. Without spot market, it's easy to have pump-and-dump coins, like the former river, lab, rave, beat, whose highs were 50 to 100 times their lows. If you keep shorting using free fuel, it can keep rocketing up. In extreme cases, I suspect it could surge from the lowest point around 0.008 to 5 to 7 times higher at 0.047～0.055. If you really want to short: please use light positions, low leverage, keep plenty of margin reserved, start at a price point of at least 0.0312 or above, light positions, light positions, light positions, test the waters carefully. This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any advice. It's purely my own analysis and hypothesis, to be verified by facts.The US Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $24.8 million on October 13, ending a streak of ten consecutive trading days of net outflows. The full daily report from Farside shows a net outflow of $85.4 million the previous day, so this time the capital flow finally turned positive.
The inflow was uneven: the Grayscale fund with the code ETH saw an inflow of $16.7 million, Fidelity's FETH had an inflow of $8.1 million, and the other listed funds all recorded zero. Here, ETH is the fund code, not an additional on-chain transfer.
For the Ethereum market, the change is that net subscriptions of these funds have again exceeded net redemptions, temporarily halting the continuous withdrawal of funds through the fund channel for one day. Subscriptions and redemptions affect the asset size held by the funds, but these flows do not represent the total daily buy and sell volume of ETH on exchanges, nor can they be directly converted into spot buy orders at the same moment.
In the previous ten trading days, the total outflow was about $783 million, and this one-day inflow only recovers about 3.2%. Next, it remains to be seen whether net inflows can continue and expand to more funds to better judge whether the withdrawal pressure is continuously easing.
Source and chart: Farside US Ethereum ETF daily report, amounts in USD; verified after 21:00 Beijing time on 10/14. The row for 10/14 is still incomplete and should not be interpreted as zero flow. $ETH Totally lost! The harshest part of this CPI is not that the overall number exceeded expectations, but that core inflation rose simultaneously. The market had always used energy price hikes as an excuse, thinking core inflation was fine. Now that this data is out, that excuse is completely torn apart. Inflation is not just driven by oil prices; the comprehensive pressure remains, and expectations for rate cuts have been slapped down.
First, look at $BTC. Once the data came out, rate cut expectations were slapped in the face, so $BTC is definitely under short-term pressure. But don’t panic, institutional base holdings are still there, and long-term holders on-chain are still accumulating. If panic selling comes out, it might actually give whales a chance to buy cheap. Hold the base firmly, don’t rush to bottom-fish in the short term.
Next, look at $ETH. ETF funds have been flowing out all along, and when $BTC weakens, $ETH falls faster than anyone. Don’t expect it to strengthen independently in the short term; it will bear the selling pressure along with the market.
Finally, look at $XAUT gold. Core inflation exceeding expectations is actually a double-edged sword for gold. In the short term, it’s suppressed by rate hike expectations and a stronger dollar, which hurts it. But the fact that inflation can’t be contained itself proves that gold’s long-term logic is intact. Allocation demand is still coming in, central banks are still buying, and if it falls, someone will step in.
Brothers, this data is here to kill expectations. Hold your spot base firmly, unload all short-term leverage, and wait for this wave of panic to subside before making moves. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 @OKX星球 Brothers, the September CPI is finally out! The big coin $BTC is bearish again. In the afternoon warm-up, I judged that the overall CPI might be pushed up by energy, but the core month-on-month might drop to 0.2%. The result was an overall year-on-year of 3.7%, higher than some market expectations of 3.6%; core year-on-year 2.6%, month-on-month 0.3%, both exceeding expectations. The energy line was predicted correctly, but the core is indeed more stubborn than I expected; this time my core judgment was too optimistic. Gasoline prices in September rose 9.1% month-on-month, and energy costs pushed overall inflation up. This is not just a problem of rising oil prices. Excluding food and energy, the core month-on-month still maintained 0.3%, and housing costs also rose 0.4%. Employment has cooled down, but prices have not dropped as the market expected, making it harder for the Fed to confidently stop raising rates. The core CPI exceeding expectations may cause the market to readjust the probability of further rate hikes, with the dollar and US Treasury yields continuing to strengthen, which is obviously not good news for the big coin. So currently, my judgment is short-term bearish, leaning towards weak consolidation first, but we still need to see how the market digests it. After the data release, the big coin once returned to around 82700; next, let's see if it can stand back above 83000. If pressure continues, I will watch the previous low near 80400.What’s really worth watching today among mainstream coins is BTC, which once dropped to 81,000 intraday, then reclaimed around 83,600, while ETH remains only at 2,500, and SOL fell further to around 106. BTC is starting to find support below, but high Beta coins continue to underperform, indicating that funds are currently flowing defensively rather than showing a full return to risk appetite.
#BTC fighting to reclaim 84,000
#High Beta continues to underperform
$BTC is currently around 83,600, with a low today of 81,000 and a high of 84,200. The 81,000–82,000 range has become the most critical support zone; above that, 84,000–84,200 is the first resistance, and only after firmly holding above that should we look toward 85,000. It’s good that BTC could pull back from the lows today, but it still needs to confirm a breakout above the highs.
$ETH is currently about 2,504, down roughly 1.5% in 24 hours. The 2,480–2,500 range remains the first line of defense; on the upside, watch 2,530 first, and only after firmly holding above 2,550 can it be considered to have shaken off weakness.
$SOL is currently about 106.6, down nearly 4% in 24 hours. The 105–106 range is the first support, with 109–110 turning back into resistance. Only after holding above 110 should we look toward 112–115.
This lineup: BTC waits for confirmation at 84,000, ETH waits for 2,550, SOL waits for 110. BTC’s pullback is just the first step; whether high Beta coins can stop lagging behind will determine the quality of the rebound. $BTC
The US September CPI data has just been released, with the overall year-on-year increase rising to 3.7% (previous value 3.4%), slightly above the market expectation of 3.6%; core CPI rose to 2.6% (previous value 2.4%), also higher than the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month increase was 0.6%, one of the larger rises in recent months.
The main driver came from energy: gasoline prices surged 9.1% in a single month, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase, with the energy component's year-on-year increase reaching 20.4%. However, core inflation also rose simultaneously, indicating that price pressures are not solely driven by oil prices; other items such as housing also contributed.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and now with inflation data accelerating again, the market is adjusting its pricing of the subsequent policy path. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.86%, reflecting that investors are beginning to reassess the possibility that "inflation stickiness may force the Fed to raise rates again."
In simple terms: energy pushed up the overall data, core inflation is also rising, still some distance from the Fed's 2% target, and discussions about further policy tightening are back on the table. The data has been confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations. September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than previous market expectations, and the core CPI excluding energy and food was also higher than estimated, indicating inflation stickiness stronger than the market's earlier optimistic judgment. Rising energy prices pushed up overall CPI, while the strength in core components shows that service-side inflation is not falling as expected, not just a short-term disturbance from oil prices.
After the data release, the market raised the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening in the short term. Previously, the market was betting on inflation cooling continuously and the tightening cycle ending; this data directly revised expectations, heating up hawkish pricing.
Simply put: inflation is not out of control again, but the downward pace has slowed, leaving the Fed the option to continue raising rates. Future policies will rely more on data and will not easily close the door on further rate hikes.
Transmission to the crypto market is a short-term negative. Rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets; high-beta assets like BTC and ETH are prone to pressure, with short-term volatility increasing. But this is a re-pricing of expectations, not a direct trend reversal; subsequent developments depend on officials' speeches, PCE, and other inflation indicators for verification.
Key follow-ups: latest statements from Fed officials, the probability of a rate hike at the December meeting, and whether core service inflation remains persistently stubborn. If multiple inflation indicators continue to strengthen, tightening expectations will keep suppressing risk assets; if it is just a single-month pulse, after digestion, the market is likely to return to its original rhythm. $BTC $ETH $ZEC All three chains are generating revenue, but prices are not rising. Because the market is starting to distinguish one thing: who is making money, and whose pockets the money is going into.
$BTC: On-chain fees and block rewards go to miners, not holders. Miners sell coins to pay electricity bills, which is continuous selling pressure. BTC holders do not share network income, only scarcity. So no matter how active the on-chain activity is, it has no direct relation to the coin price. BTC's value comes from consensus, not cash flow.
$ETH: Mainnet gas fees are largely diverted to L2s, weakening value capture. EIP-1559 burns part of the fees, but the burn amount decreases as L2s prosper. Stakers earn issuance and priority fees, but issuance is inflationary, diluting non-stakers. ETH's cash flow story is becoming increasingly strained.
$SOL: Fees and MEV income go to validators and stakers. Inflation subsidizes validators, diluting holders. The more active the ecosystem, the more validators earn, but ordinary holders get nothing except price. SOL's economic model essentially uses inflation to buy security.
On-chain revenue does not equal token value. Only tokens that can capture revenue have a foundation for long-term appreciation. BTC relies on consensus, ETH is struggling, SOL relies on inflation. Understand whether what you hold is an asset or fuel working for others. - Four data points exceeded expectations, but the real signal is not in the overall year-on-year 3.7%, but in the core month-on-month holding steady at 0.3% for the second consecutive month — this is the second refutation of the consensus on "inflation steadily falling." - The stickiness of the core, via the upward revision of the real interest rate path, directly raises the discount rate for risk assets. Assets with no cash flow and duration approaching infinity bear the heaviest valuation compression; this is the mechanism reason why crypto is more resilient under similar shocks. - The price structure has not been broken: after the data release, BTC instantly dropped about a thousand dollars, then was bought back. The negative news failed to break through, which is the most noteworthy fact in the current market. --- **1. What is overlooked is the sub-items** The overall year-on-year 3.7% is higher than the expected 3.6%, and the month-on-month 0.6% meets expectations. It looks like a report pushed up by energy with a decent structure — gasoline was the main contributor to last month's increase, which is a volatile item. The problem lies in the core sub-items. Core month-on-month is 0.3%, while the market originally expected a drop to 0.2%; core year-on-year is 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, price pressure shows no signs of easing and has been rising at the same pace for two consecutive months. Single-month fluctuations can be ignored, but two consecutive months in the same direction constitute evidence. This report does not provide new arguments for "inflation sustainably returning to target." **2. Transmission relies on discount rates, not sentiment** The damage from core stickiness is not in the current rate hike probability, but in the entire interest rate path being revised upward. The expectation of nominal rate decline has been postponed