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The Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting from October 27 to 28. The US Dollar Index has already reached around 102.58, an 18-month high. A strong dollar and hawkish rate expectations are headwinds for highly volatile assets.
I jotted down possible scenarios in my notebook: no rate hike with a dovish stance, $HYPE might have a chance to rebound to the upper range; a 25 basis point hike, which the market has priced in about halfway, so the impact is limited; if they hike and signal more hikes to come, then watch out for the 77 support level being broken.
Most likely, there will be continued volatility before the meeting, and the direction will only come out during the meeting.
I circled October 28 on the calendar stuck on the fridge. My wife asked me what the circle was for, I said a meeting. She asked what meeting, I said, a meeting of the whole world.
The words "rate hike" give me a headache. A 47% probability, fifty-fifty, like flipping a coin. I was annoyed for two days, then I realized: I can't control the Federal Reserve, the only thing I can control is my position size.
No adding positions before the meeting, just hold the base positions and wait for the outcome.
I've seen many storms; just open the umbrella in advance. Hold on.$STRK 50x Short · Brief Recap
Short opened at 0.1025, target marked at 0.07446, floating profit 1367.80%.
STRK fundamentals show both positive factors and selling pressure: On October 8, 127 million tokens unlocked (accounting for 4.6% of circulating supply), plus another batch unlocking in November, maintaining token inflation pressure. Although there are ecosystem positives like World and Visa advancing Stellar network USDC payments, and Paxos obtaining MAS approval, Starknet TVL and daily active users remain sluggish, with fierce competition in the Layer 2 sector, and bears dominating the market. I shorted on the rebound at 0.1025, taking advantage of unlocking selling pressure and cleaning out bulls.
Support below is seen at 0.070-0.075, breakdown target at 0.060; resistance above at 0.085-0.095 turning strong. 50x leverage yields substantial floating profits, strict stop-loss to protect capital, take profits in batches to lock in gains, avoid greed at the tail end. $BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Short-term Bitcoin holders' positions have risen to 4.08 million BTC, the highest since mid-June, increasing by about 420,000 BTC (+12%) since the July low.
New buyers mostly entered in the $82,000-$86,000 range, with an overall average cost of about $74,900; unrealized profit buffers have narrowed to around 10%.
The price currently remains above cost, but profit margins are thinning. If it falls below $74,900, the short-term group will overall turn unprofitable, potentially increasing selling pressure. New demand still exists but has slowed down; $74,900 is a key level to watch. $BTC $ETH #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
I remain cautious about whether Netflix's latest earnings report can exceed expectations.
The market currently unanimously expects third-quarter revenue of about $12.87 billion, but the company's guidance is only $12.86 billion. In the past 30 days, analysts have also lowered EPS forecasts by about 0.7%. More notably, the stock price has been under pressure recently, and analysts have started to worry about slowing user engagement and intensified competition.
The advertising business does have growth potential, but whether it can truly translate into profit still needs to be verified by the earnings report. For me, revenue growth is not surprising; the key is whether the actual performance can surpass the already adjusted market expectations. The "Life-or-Death Trials" on Bitcoin's Road to One Million Dollars by 2030
ARK presents an optimistic scenario where Bitcoin could reach one million dollars by 2030, but there are three life-or-death trials on this path. Failing any one of them would directly invalidate the million-dollar narrative.
The first is the regulatory life-or-death trial. For large-scale entry of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, a friendly regulatory framework in Europe and the US must be maintained long-term. If major countries tighten access, restrict ETFs, or impose bans, institutional funds will quickly withdraw, and the bullish logic will collapse.
The second is the macro liquidity life-or-death trial. The million-dollar target is based on assumptions of long-term low interest rates, high global debt, and continuous fiat currency depreciation. If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for a long time, funds will flow into stable assets like US Treasuries, putting pressure on risk asset valuations, making it difficult for Bitcoin to sustain a long bull market.
The third is the capital capacity life-or-death trial. Reaching a million-dollar market cap requires massive incremental capital inflows sustained over more than a decade. As the scale grows, maintaining high growth becomes exponentially harder. Once ETF funds shift from net inflows to sustained outflows, the momentum for price growth will dry up.
Institutional forecasts are merely scenario simulations, not guaranteed outcomes. Do not use distant ideal targets as a basis for trading. The crypto market is highly volatile, black swan events can occur anytime, so be sure to control your position size and view cycles rationally. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus The $CORE community is being torn apart by two voices: one side shouting for zero, the other shouting for a hundredfold increase. But the truly interesting things are missed by both groups.
Let's first look at a set of data, which is quite interesting.
In 24 hours, TVL rose by 16%, DEX trading volume jumped 68% over 7 days, daily active users rebounded to 9,100+, and the price rose from 0.017 to 0.0228 within 7 days, a bounce of over 30%.
But at the same time, the on-chain 30-day Gas fee revenue was only $254.80.
Yes, two hundred fifty-four dollars. Not twenty-five thousand, not two thousand five hundred, but two hundred fifty. Less than the daily fee of a decent street dog.
TVL increased, users returned, price bounced, but the actual revenue generated by real economic activity on-chain is approximately zero.
What does this indicate?
It indicates that the current driving force behind on-chain activity is not real demand, but incentives.
Staking mining, airdrop expectations, task volume boosting—these can create attractive TVL numbers and transaction counts but cannot generate sustainable protocol revenue. Core DAO is indeed the largest Bitcoin sidechain by TVL, with $314.4 million locked, 5,541 BTC staked, accounting for 26.4% of all Bitcoin sidechain TVL. But the fees generated by these locked funds almost entirely belong to BTC holders and node operators; the CORE token itself does not capture them.
This is the core problem of CORE currently: the chain is running, but the token is "idling."
So what exactly is the market trading?
It’s not fundamentals; it’s the expectation of narrative shifts.
The core logic of the 2026 roadmap is: to pool BTC staking fees, SatPay card fees, and AMP asset management income into the treasury for secondary market CORE buybacks. This is a narrative transformation from "printing subsidies" to "rent collection buybacks."
But for the narrative to become reality, there are two critical legs in between:
First leg: SatPay. This is the largest cash flow source for the buyback flywheel. But as of October, SatPay has been indefinitely delayed due to licensing and regulatory issues, leaving buybacks without real funding support. Without SatPay fees, buybacks are water without a source.
Second leg: Ghost chips. Approximately 69 million CORE tokens leaked through the 8.31 vulnerability; a hard fork can only stop further issuance but cannot recover the already leaked tokens. The official has yet to disclose the specific whereabouts and handling plan for these tokens. The unresolved selling pressure is the most tangible suppression over every rebound.
Signals truly worth watching
The current price of 0.022 already prices in most of the "narrative failure" expectations. A drop from $6.47 to $0.017, a 99.7% decline, means the market no longer believes any promises on the PPT.
But conversely, this also means any marginal improvement in substantive progress could trigger an over-expected reaction.
Watch three things:
1. Whether SatPay provides a clear regulatory approval timeline. This is the only fuel source for the buyback flywheel. Without it, the roadmap is just words.
2. On-chain movements of the 69 million ghost chips. If these tokens start to move, it either means selling pressure release or official intervention; either way, it’s a key signal.
3. Whether on-chain Gas fee revenue shows an order of magnitude change. $254/month means almost no real paying users on-chain. If this number grows more than 10 times in the next quarter, it indicates real commercial activity is landing in the ecosystem.
Summary
The current state of $CORE is neither "going to zero" nor "taking off," but an observation window where the narrative has switched but execution has yet to be verified. The price hovering around $0.02 is not market hesitation but the market waiting for an answer: can SatPay actually get running?
Before this answer comes out, all price movements are emotional. After the answer comes out, that’s when direction emerges.
$CORE #Tesla's delivery exceeds expectations, making profit recovery the focus $TSLA will release its Q3 earnings after the market closes on October 21. I personally lean towards the possibility that this earnings report will surpass Wall Street expectations, mainly because the market's current profit forecasts for the automotive business are relatively conservative. According to Visible Alpha data, the market expects Tesla's Q3 revenue to be $28.04 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, with adjusted EPS of $0.44, down 11.8% year-on-year. In contrast, Tesla has already announced Q3 vehicle deliveries of 486,532 units, exceeding previous market expectations. Model 3/Y deliveries reached 478,237 units, and energy storage deployments hit 13.7 GWh, a 9.6% year-on-year increase. I believe the possibility of exceeding expectations mainly comes from the automotive business profit margin. Deliveries are confirmed, and the market's next focus is on average selling price, manufacturing costs, and capacity utilization. If automotive business cost control is better than expected, even with limited revenue growth, the final EPS could still exceed $0.44. However, it should be noted that Q3 deliveries still declined 2.1% year-on-year, and deliveries exceeded production by about 22,000 units, with some deliveries coming from inventory digestion, so it cannot be simply understood as a full recovery in end demand. The energy storage business is another variable worth watching. Megapack and Powerwall are providing Tesla with revenue sources beyond automobiles. If the energy business maintains good profit margins, it will positively contribute to overall profitability. However, this quarter's energy storage deployment volume was lower than previously expected.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 net profit reached 763.1 billion New Taiwan Dollars, up 68.7% year-on-year, setting a record for six consecutive quarters. In the first quarter of 2nm mass production, it accounted for 8% of wafer revenue, with advanced process technology overall reaching 79%.
Despite the strong financial report, the stock price fell by 1.8%. The market's concern lies elsewhere: AI customers are competing fiercely for capacity, with Wei Zhejia receiving over a dozen urgent order calls daily. However, TSMC clearly stated that capital expenditures will be significantly increased from 2026 to 2028. The stronger the demand, the more aggressive the spending, and the gross margin was first dragged down by 1.3 percentage points due to the 2nm ramp-up.
The profits are real, but with this AI wave, TSMC is also bearing a heavy burden.#10.21 On the Eve of the Earnings Report, Roadster's Hype Overshadows Market Variables Easily Overlooked
Mainstream market consensus: The Roadster demo video ignited emotions, combined with SpaceX's technological support, will strongly back Tesla's earnings report and even catalyze expectations of a merger between the two entities. But one easily overlooked fact: the new product launch cannot change the already closed Q3 results; it can only serve as an emotional buffer and cannot reverse the fundamentals.
This car was delayed for nine years before debuting, and deliveries are still expected next year. It features a Falcon rocket jet device, showcasing a combination of two mature technologies, but it is not a mass-production-ready flight solution. Its practicality in daily scenarios is very low, and the ejection mechanism poses safety risks, serving only as an emergency escape concept. Previous analysis showed that the optimal window for a merger is when SpaceX's valuation is high and Tesla's stock price is low; the current price level does not meet these conditions.
If this observation fails, the signal would be: the Tesla and SpaceX merger news is officially confirmed in this earnings report.
$TSLA $BTC $ETH $SOL The US September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, with energy obviously contributing a lot. But another BLS measure is even more worth highlighting: excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices still rose 0.5% month-over-month, higher than August's 0.3%. Trying to explain this inflation simply as "it's all because of oil prices" is somewhat forced. For the Federal Reserve, handling these two scenarios is very different. A sudden jump in oil prices can be observed to see if the shock recedesThe US September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, with energy obviously contributing a lot. But another BLS measure is even more worth highlighting: excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices still rose 0.5% month-over-month, higher than August's 0.3%. Trying to explain this inflation simply as "it's all because of oil prices" is somewhat forced. For the Federal Reserve, handling these two scenarios is very different. A sudden jump in oil prices can be observed to see if the shock recedesWho does this $HYPE news affect? Don't rush to guess the price movement yet.
Binance officially announced "Binance Finance, One-Click Buy, Flash Exchange, VIP Lending, and Leverage now support Hyperliquid (HYPE)." When such news comes out, the comment section usually debates first whether it's bullish or bearish, but for $HYPE, this question is premature. The news first changes attention and expectations; the price direction still needs the market to decide.
This event means different things to three types of people. Those who already hold need to confirm whether the event has changed the original fundamentals; those preparing to follow need to distinguish whether what they see is new information or price already factored in; those who only look at trending topics are most likely to translate an eye-catching headline directly into the next direction. The risk points for these three groups seeing the same news are completely different.
Let's put verifiable facts on the table: $HYPE current price 79.25, 24h -2.51%, 24h range 79.19—82.64. 1-hour trend is weak, 4-hour trend is weak, trading participation is about 1.04 times the average volume of the last 20 bars. These numbers cannot predict results for anyone but can check whether the market is truly responding continuously.#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
I think the probability is much lower than expected, but don't forget that yesterday he said unless World War III breaks out, SpaceX's market value will be 100 Trillion within ten years.
Musk's space dream involves high investment and high consumption, with many processes still ongoing. Precisely because the boss is Musk, a man who makes people choose to believe in him no matter what he does, but I don't believe in men 🤨
Quarterly Capex exceeds revenue by more than twice, and free cash flow is deeply negative. The market is sensitive to AI spending exceeding expectations, with the stock price dropping about 7–10% in after-hours trading following the earnings report. This is a typical "spend money first, then monetize" AI infrastructure strategy, with risks lying in whether the return cycle and utilization can be realized.
Valuation is extremely high: the current market value is still around 2 trillion dollars (stock price recently around 145–150 dollars range, higher than the issue price but far below the peak of 225 dollars), corresponding to TTM revenue of about 23 billion dollars, with a very high P/S ratio. It requires sustained high growth plus eventual high profit margins to absorb.
• The space business is still in the investment phase; full reuse of Starship and a cliff-like cost reduction are long-term key variables. ARPU decline also needs attention (cost of expansion).
• Other risks include execution pace, regulation (spectrum, etc.), competition (Amazon and other satellite internet), and Musk's personal reliance and multi-company focus allocation.
$SPCX #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
Brothers, Tesla really knows how to make a splash this time.
The new generation $TSLA Roadster has finally debuted, and the launch event turned the car into a sci-fi show, even demonstrating a short-distance hover effect. After the news broke, Tesla's pre-market price surged nearly 5%, instantly igniting market sentiment.
But I think this price surge is not necessarily buying sales, but more buying imagination. After all, this car is planned for mass production in 2028, with price and many specific parameters not fully disclosed yet, so its short-term contribution to earnings is actually limited.
Tesla's strongest point has never been just selling cars, but weaving together stories of cars, AI, robotics, and SpaceX. As long as the market is willing to believe, the valuation can keep rising; but if delivery, mass production, and costs can't keep up later, the excitement of today's surge could turn into a painful drop.
For risk assets, TLSA's strength also shows that market sentiment hasn't completely cooled off, and $BTC and $ETH might also catch some of the glow later. But stories are stories; in the end, it all depends on delivery.
The Roadster looks great, but whether the stock price can keep flying can't rely on the launch event alone. $OKB perpetual contract 20x short position, opened at 125.58, currently at 117.63, floating profit +126.61%.
Logic: OKB was previously boosted by ICE's strategic investment, but the expected positive developments are still far off, and the good news has been fully priced in. The platform coin buyback narrative is marginally diminishing, and the X Layer ecosystem development is unbalanced. Coupled with the macro environment of high US Treasury yields and ETF fund outflows triggering risk aversion and deleveraging, OKB, as a high Beta asset, follows the decline. After a low-volume sideways consolidation above 125.58, it broke down, with moving averages in a bearish alignment and heavy selling pressure. Using 20x leverage to short at the top, capturing the extreme odds under platform coin weakness.
Operation: Take profits in batches (recommend securing 95%), move the stop profit above the cost (125.58) to lock in gains, and keep a very small position to gamble on the 116 support break.
Risk quantification: 20x leverage has an error tolerance of about 5%, with theoretical reverse volatility of 5% leading to zero, and actual trading at 4%-5% may trigger forced liquidation. Although OKB has no unlocking pressure due to total lock-up, it still faces extremely high risks such as platform coin competition bleeding, market trend changes dragging it down, large holders controlling the market, bull counterattacks, and spikes, making it very easy to be liquidated instantly. Strict risk control is essential; immediately move the stop loss above the cost price to lock in profits, and avoid adding positions. Under high leverage, survival is more important than huge profits; the 126% floating profit must be converted into actual realized gains. $BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Stablecoins enter an era of layered competition. USDT dominates savings in emerging markets, USDC leads payments and AI agent trading in developed markets, and together with USDe consolidates its position in crypto trading. Circle plans to expand into 50 emerging markets, believing stablecoins are moving from early adoption to mainstream scale.
DeFi is reshaping amid growing pains. TVL dropped from $115 billion to about $70 billion in the first half, a 39% decline, but rebounded 38% in Q3 to $95 billion, marking the first quarterly growth since the 2025 peak. Monad's TVL grew 183%, and Robinhood Crypto's TVL surpassed $1 billion two months after launch.
The NFT market continues to marginalize. Total transaction volume in 2025 fell to $5.5 billion, down 37% year-on-year, and total market cap shrank from about $9 billion to $2.4 billion.
Primary market capital logic is also restructuring. The influence of established lead VCs has clearly declined, with the top five lead investors averaging 2.0 deals per month in Q3, down from 3.7 in the first half; meanwhile, CEX-related strategic capital is accelerating activity. Funds are concentrating in areas connected to traditional finance such as payments, stablecoins, tokenized securities, and AI infrastructure.
Old cycle narratives are failing. The real structural opportunities lie not in the ups and downs of candlestick charts but in the trajectory of capital migration—from token speculation to infrastructure, from retail sentiment to institutional allocation, from narrative-driven to revenue-driven.
#OKX.ai：一个人就是一家世界级公司 #星球日报 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
1283939392928848494902002Although previous CPI and PPI data both exceeded expectations and inflation remains sticky, the market judges that a single-month inflation rebound is insufficient to prompt the Fed to immediately implement a rate hike. On one hand, the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the passive tightening of financial conditions have already had an effect similar to a rate hike. But note: 17% is not zero; the option to hike rates is not completely closed. This probability is just the market's tradedThis week, the AI and semiconductor sectors collectively plunged, with the combined market value of these sectors evaporating over $1 trillion, marking a concentrated valuation re-pricing of global tech assets.
The core reason for the decline is not a complete collapse of industry fundamentals, but rather multiple negative factors resonating after previous excessive gains.
First, CPI and PPI have consecutively exceeded expectations, highlighting inflation stickiness, and the market is pricing in a longer duration of high interest rates. High-valuation growth stocks are highly sensitive to interest rates; under discounting models, the value of future earnings shrinks, prompting funds to actively reduce positions.
Second, several chip industry executives have issued warnings about pressure on AI capital expenditures, causing the market to doubt the sustainability of AI computing power demand.
Third, the sharp drop in the Korean storage sector has created a linkage effect, with the market worried about changes in the supply pattern of memory chips, further undermining confidence in the semiconductor sector.
From a capital behavior perspective, this round is a concentrated profit-taking phase. Over the past year, AI and semiconductors have experienced a major bull market, with valuations fully reflecting optimistic expectations. Once expectations weaken, large floating profits exit en masse, causing a rapid market value pullback.
Cross-market transmission: AI and semiconductors are core weights in the Nasdaq index; a significant sector pullback suppresses overall market risk appetite, indirectly putting emotional pressure on high-beta crypto assets like BTC, ETH, and others. But it is important to distinguish that this is a growth stock expectation adjustment, not a systemic financial crisis. If panic continues to spread, crypto is likely to follow the pressure; if it is just internal rebalancing within the tech sector, the impact on crypto is limited. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #韩股修复反弹，外资卖压能否缓解？ 量子威胁论再度被$BTC 社区忽视，而这一次发声的是孙宇晨。他直言市场严重低估了Q-Day到来后对比特币价格的冲击，同时波场已悄然在测试网上部署NIST后量子加密标准，计划明年初上线主网。抗量子竞赛的起跑枪已经响了，但大多数人还在讨论减半和ETF。 最值得玩味的不是威胁本身，而是应对节奏的错位。$TRX 选择直接集成标准化抗量子方案，走的是“先换锁再搬家”的路径；而比特币的共识升级以年为单位计算，两年内完成抗量子改造几乎是不可能的任务。这意味着即便所有人都收到了预警，$BTC 在结构上仍将暴露于量子风险之中——不是技术做不到，而是治理机制决定了它快不了。 市场习惯把量子计算当作遥远叙事折现，但孙宇晨的提醒指向一个更尖锐的问题：当一条主流公链已经拿出可运行的抗量子测试网时，比特币的“安全溢价”是否被高估了？$STRK 等零知识证明相关资产同样值得关注，因为抗量子路径与隐私计算、签名聚合的技术栈存在重叠，资金可能沿着这条线索重新定价。 确认这一叙事转向的信号并不复杂：波场抗量子主网上线时间表是否兑现，以及比特币核心开发者是否将抗量子签名方案提上正式议程。在那之前，量子威胁仍会被多数人归入“The US CPI and PPI have consecutively signaled inflationary pressure. Logically, the market should be worried about the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, putting pressure on assets like gold and Bitcoin. But the actual trend shows gold falling and then rebounding. What does this indicate? It shows that the market is not just looking at the data quality but is trading based on changes in expectations behind the data.
For this round of $XAU rebound, the key factors are the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Hot inflation data indeed increases the pressure for tighter monetary policy, but if the market has already priced in the rate hike expectations, followed by a weakening dollar and falling Treasury yields, gold could regain support. Additionally, recent increased volatility in global tech stocks and growing concerns about high valuations and financing pressures have naturally led some safe-haven funds back into gold.
This explains why we see an apparently contradictory market: strong inflation data, a temporarily stronger dollar and Treasury yields, yet gold quickly recovers after a brief drop. Behind this is the market seeing "good expectations" in the "bad data"—that is, the Fed’s tightening policy may be nearing its end, and future policy paths will depend more on marginal changes in data. Therefore, gold’s rebound is not ignoring the inflation data but is an early pricing in of expectations for a shift in monetary policy. #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight
Netflix growth is slowing down, is it still a good time to buy ads? $NFLX
Netflix is about to release its earnings report. The market expects revenue of about $12.86 billion, with growth slowing to 12%, but profit margin rising to 33.2%.
Subscription user growth has peaked, making advertising a key part of the business transformation. Netflix's advertising strategy differs from competitors: others rely on low-cost ad-supported versions to subsidize operations; Netflix leverages strong content engagement to push users toward the ad-supported version, then raises the price of the ad-free version accordingly. The core customer base remains intact, while earning additional high-margin advertising revenue.
Valuation focus has shifted from "user count" to "average revenue per user (ARPU) + advertising monetization efficiency." With live sports streaming and offline business implementation, the second growth curve is expected to continue boosting profit margins.
The short-term slowdown looks more like a gear shift, while the long-term monetization moat may deepen. $xNFLX 【$BTC hasn't risen to 90,000 yet, but Wall Street has already priced MSTR at $208】
Cantor Fitzgerald raised MSTR's target price from $186 to $208, while betting that BTC will rise to $112,000 in the next 12 months. Sounds optimistic, but BTC is still around $82,000 now, about 37% below that target. Analysts are betting on the future, not telling you the bull market has already arrived.
Strategy holds 84,825 BTC, indeed a massive Bitcoin warehouse. But MSTR is not spot; its stock price is also affected by financing costs, dilution from additional issuance, and valuation premiums. More awkwardly, the new MSCI rules may exclude it from some indices, with related passive investment scale about $2.8 billion. The final list will be announced on November 11.
Cantor's price target increase only proves someone is willing to bet on BTC continuing to rise; it cannot be taken as evidence of incremental funds entering the market. For MSTR to outperform BTC, besides the coin price rising, it also needs to maintain its valuation premium. If BTC really surges to $112,000, this target might seem conservative; but if index funds withdraw and the premium continues to shrink, even if BTC rises, MSTR may not keep up.· Fidelity's findings have structural significance — the correlation between BTC and real yields has shifted from negative to positive, indicating that the pricing logic may be transitioning from "risk asset" to "debt depreciation hedge." If this shift continues, BTC's downside potential will face more fundamental constraints.
· Key range to watch: 78,000 is identified by Glassnode as a critical liquidity zone, and 78,000 is also the 21/50-week EMA area, forming a deeper structural defense line.
· Right-side signals: need to wait for the Wash speech to materialize + price volume to recover above $83,644 (20-day SMA) + ETF funds to resume sustained net inflows. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $HOOD
Event contract revenue reached $156 million, surpassing stock trading revenue of $129 million for the first time.
▪️ Q2 total revenue $1.31 billion, +32% YoY
▪️ Trading business revenue $776 million, +44% YoY
▪️ Event contract revenue $156 million, over 10x YoY growth
▪️ H1 revenue $2.375 billion, +23.96% YoY, net profit $919 million
▪️ Closed at $103.99 on 10/15, +2.88% intraday, down 7.56% since October
▪️ Some brokers maintained buy rating on 10/13 with a target price of $134
The disagreement is not about the speed of growth, but about what type of contracts are included in the term "trading business."
Stock and options revenue comes from turnover of existing customers, while event contracts come from newly launched categories. The latter is just starting with a small base, so a tenfold YoY increase is not difficult; the former is large in scale but grows slowly. Looking at both combined shows 44% growth, but breaking it down reveals that new categories are compensating for the slower growth of old categories.
The outlook is cautious — event contract revenue needs to avoid decline for two consecutive quarters to be considered a true successor; relying on a single quarter is still influenced by base effects.$SUI I'll add a couple more sentences about that Alibaba Cloud news. This morning I said it was just sitting on trending search pretending to be dead, but now the core is clear—Alibaba Cloud has integrated Sui Agent Payments, AI agents automatically pay USDC per use, all settled on Sui. Sounds solid, but my first reaction is: this kind of infrastructure integration won't bring quick riches; it's something that slowly ferments over three months. It's up just over 5% in 24 hours now, but what about volume? Still the same dead pattern, just a bit of coordination. The real value is the narrative shifting from "public chain" to "AI payment implementation," but the traders on the market don't care about that at all. Don't bet on a big bullish candle just because of such big news. $SUI $CT is currently in the valuation digestion phase following the realization of positive momentum. The short-term trend depends on the effectiveness of the $0.35 support level, while the mid-term is constrained by the unlocking schedule and protocol revenue as two major variables.
Short-term (1-2 weeks): Key support lies between $0.36–$0.37, with the first resistance around $0.42–$0.43. If $0.35 is breached with increased volume, the price may continue to test lower supports. On the upside, $0.63 is a strong supply zone formed by historical highs; only a volume breakout above $0.65 can open the $0.70–$0.75 range, otherwise rebounds are mostly technical corrections.
Mid-term risks: The unlocking schedule for 22% held by the team and 28% by investors has not yet been disclosed, representing the biggest uncertainty looming overhead. If the schedule is announced earlier than expected, current buying pressure will face the challenge of supporting future token supply. Although the protocol’s TVL reaches $1.2 billion, 30-day fees are about $2 million and revenue only around $40,000. CT holders cannot directly share in protocol profits, so the valuation lacks a cash flow anchor.
Overall assessment: In the short term, expect oscillation between $0.35 and $0.43, with directional moves likely triggered by unlocking news or BTC market trends. The new token’s supply structure is unstable and volatility is extreme, so heavy bets on a single direction are not advisable. Tesla's move this time is ruthless, truly the currently accessible flying car, without a doubt this Tesla is definitely beyond expectations
Regarding Tesla's stock:
Short term: After the press conference, US pre-market stocks once rose nearly 5%, then narrowed to 1%~1.5% after opening, with the stock price fluctuating around $368; the previous day's close was $362.44, down 1.29%. Sentiment surged but did not form a sustained rally.
Institutional divergence:
· Cautious side: Gene Munster said it "has no commercial value"; Gary Black estimated that even with annual sales of 3,000 units and a profit of $100,000 per vehicle, it would only contribute about $0.06 per share, which is almost negligible compared to the expected EPS of $5.40 in 2029. JPMorgan maintains a "neutral" rating.
· Bullish narrative side: Dan Ives and others believe the real significance is to strengthen the expectation of Tesla's integration with SpaceX, even triggering merger speculation, which is the valuation catalyst.
Mid-to-long term trend: The core contradiction is not this car
Tesla has fallen about 18% this year, ranking last among the "Seven Giants," with a P/E ratio of about 187 times. The valuation bets on FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus robots, not a limited edition sports car with annual sales of a few thousand units and mass production only in 2028. The Q3 earnings report on October 21 is the key point to test the match between core business and valuation.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Among Tesla's deliveries this quarter, there is a discrepancy worth noting: deliveries exceeded production by 22,141 vehicles.
The official report shows 464,391 vehicles produced and 486,532 delivered in Q3. Deliveries surpassing production may involve previously inventoried and in-transit vehicles, so it cannot be entirely attributed to new production capacity this quarter. Looking on the bright side, delivering already produced cars to customers helps recover previously tied-up capital.
However, the conditions under which this capital was recovered will be clearer in the earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 21. If the recovery mainly relied on larger price concessions or financing incentives, cash flow improves but per-vehicle profit may not improve accordingly; if prices remained relatively stable and costs declined, then the quality of delivery growth is higher. These two scenarios have very different implications for shareholders.
Therefore, I am not in a hurry to equate delivery exceeding expectations directly with earnings recovery. While observing inventory changes, we also need to align prices and automotive business costs to see how much profit remains from the cars delivered.
After the Roadster launch heated up market sentiment, this issue tends to be overlooked. The sports car demonstration can raise expectations for the future, but profits from regular sales must be settled quarterly. If the sales figures look good but cash flow improvement mainly comes from inventory release, I will remain somewhat skeptical and continue to wait for the next quarter's order and profit performance.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 The most anticipated change in Netflix's advertising business is that advertisers can finally spend money through the procurement tools they are familiar with.
When the company ended its U.S. ad presales in August, it claimed that committed ad spend nearly doubled. More specifically, advertisers can now transact with Netflix through existing purchasing platforms like Google, Amazon, Yahoo, and The Trade Desk, and paused screen ads have also been integrated into programmatic buying. With one less procurement barrier, there is a greater chance for budgets to come in.
This is more interesting than simply stuffing more ads into videos. For advertisers, budget approval, campaign operation, and performance verification all incur costs; if buying Netflix ads requires setting up a separate process, no matter how good the content is, it may not smoothly secure the budget. These steps are now being connected.
However, presale commitments still need to be realized through actual ad delivery before they can turn into revenue in financial reports. While the platform is willing to disclose signed deals, investors should continue to question the fulfillment status. If subscription growth slows, how large is the gap that ad revenue needs to fill?
The reason I am optimistic about this business is that it is becoming easier to purchase. In the next financial report, if ad monetization accelerates but total revenue growth remains weak, the subscription business will need further dissection. We cannot dismiss the overall company's slowdown just because a new business is growing fast.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 For SpaceX's next earnings report, I want to first analyze how much each Starlink user contributes, then look at the number of rocket launches.
In the official Q2 report, there was a less eye-catching comparison: Starlink's user base doubled year-over-year to 12 million, but the average monthly revenue per user dropped from $85 to $66. Connectivity business revenue still grew by 66%, and operating profit also increased. This shows that expanding the user base can indeed be profitable, but the revenue levels of new users and existing users may not be the same.
Entering more markets and covering more consumer tiers naturally makes the user count look better; whether the same profitability efficiency can be maintained going forward depends on the package structure and enterprise customer contributions. Simply multiplying the user count by an optimistic unit price can easily lead to a valuation that excites oneself.
One more reminder: the first "complete quarter" after listing refers to Q3, so it should not be written that the company has never previously disclosed earnings. Q2 results have already been released and are perfect for comparison.
My expectations for this report are very specific: whether Starlink's growth can continue to support the group's investments, and how much cash the AI business expansion has used. Only when both are clearly explained can shareholders understand what kind of business they are buying into. Technological progress is exciting, but financially, it is unwise to mix all businesses together and assign just one "Musk ecosystem" valuation.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 The most uncomfortable aspect of this PPI is that even after removing energy, price increases have not disappeared.
The US September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, with energy obviously contributing a lot. But another BLS measure is even more worth highlighting: excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices still rose 0.5% month-over-month, higher than August's 0.3%. Trying to explain this inflation simply as "it's all because of oil prices" is somewhat forced.
For the Federal Reserve, handling these two scenarios is very different. A sudden jump in oil prices can be observed to see if the shock recedes; if non-energy prices also accelerate, then there is concern that companies are starting to pass on costs, expanding the scope of price increases. This judgment requires confirmation from subsequent data and cannot be declared as a new round of rate hikes based on a single monthly report.
The market always wants to treat bad data as a temporary episode, thinking that if we endure a bit longer, cheap money will return. I am somewhat uneasy about this optimism. Whether rates will be raised again this year is still undecided, but the fact that rates are not coming down anytime soon will itself change financing costs and asset valuations.
For BTC, if high interest rates persist for a few more months, the amount of risk capital is willing to take will also change accordingly. I will first observe whether the increase excluding food, energy, and trade services can come back down.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #HBM4 mass production: Can it drive SK Hynix's profits to new highs again? $BTC Last night’s dip to $80,000 probably made many friends’ hearts skip a beat. Everyone should be able to see that this is the combined effect of hotter-than-expected US inflation, weakening Asian markets, and declining risk appetite. But Ajian believes the most important information from this move is that the market completed a position reshuffle in a short time. During the drop, longs were forced to sell, and during the rebound, shorts may have started to cover. The price looks like it just bounced back from around $80,000, but the players inside have already changed.
So, looking at the current price, it doesn’t seem like a guaranteed rise after liquidation, but more like a technical repair after deleveraging. Spot demand has not fully returned. A true trend reversal should simultaneously see spot trading volume rise, the price firmly hold above $82,600, and ETF flows stop deteriorating.
Also, although the liquidation amount this time was large, it doesn’t mean the selling pressure is completely over. Some longs were just liquidated, and remaining spot holders may still be waiting for better prices to exit. Ajian does not recommend using “it has already dropped” as a reason to add positions #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
Tesla's quarterly earnings report is very likely to exceed expectations. Deliveries have already significantly surpassed estimates, reaching 486,500 vehicles, much higher than analysts' forecast of 462,000, and the revenue base is more solid.
After two consecutive quarters of inventory reduction, cost pressures may be smaller than expected. Additionally, following a significant miss in Q2, market expectations for this quarter have been lowered considerably, making it easier to exceed them. FSD subscriptions continue to grow, and software has high gross margins, which can support profits. Although energy deployment targets were not met, overall, with low expectations and high deliveries, the probability of exceeding expectations is quite high. #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 【Crypto Circle Script】
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
The US inflation data this time is a bit scary
CPI rose to 3.7%
PPI even directly hit 6.3%
Both exceeded market expectations
Now the Federal Reserve has a headache again
Previously, employment data weakened
Everyone was still hoping for a rate cut to save the market
But inflation slapped back
Now it's better
Economic growth is under pressure
But prices are still rising
Isn't this the stagflation risk the market fears most?
What's more troublesome is
This round of inflation largely comes from energy
When oil prices rise
Transportation costs rise accordingly
Corporate costs go up
In the end, consumers still pay the bill
But I think one detail is worth noting
The data looks so bad
But the market hasn't taken a rate hike in October as a done deal
What does this mean?
Bad data doesn't necessarily mean the market will fall
Because the market trades not only on data
But also on expectations and capital
It's the same for BTC
The higher the inflation
The harder it is for the Federal Reserve to ease
Liquidity expectations are more likely to be under pressure
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus. At 5 PM, $TSLAB surged to 382.69, 5.5% higher than before the press conference.
I admit, I was tempted then.
Flying cars, Tesla on the blockchain, the story flows so smoothly you don’t want to ask the second question — who holds the pricing power.
Three and a half hours later, 365.
The US stock market opened. Just that moment.
I stared at those hourly candles dropping down and finally understood: the 382.69 during the day wasn’t Tesla’s rise, it was us pushing it up ourselves.
As soon as the US market opened, the accounts were settled. Not a cent left.
So don’t blame Musk’s car — whether the car performs or not has nothing to do with this 5.5%.
What’s been exposed is the idea that "the crypto community can set Tesla’s price themselves."
Tonight’s lesson cost 5.5%.
What about you, did you chase that price this afternoon? $TSLA #Why is the first rebound after a sharp drop most likely to cause losses? BTC current increase +1.85%
During a major decline, the market is generally shrouded in fear, with clear risk perception. But once the price pulls up, FOMO sentiment spreads rapidly. Those who missed out rush to enter and catch up, while traders who originally planned to reduce positions, influenced by anchoring effect, start imagining a new round of upward trend. Much of this upward momentum is just short covering, not a return of long-term funds, so sustainability is questionable.
More than the rebound magnitude, three points are worth observing: whether ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows, whether spot trading volume expands in sync with the rebound, and whether the price can hold key levels against pullbacks. If these three do not improve, a single bullish candle is insufficient to change the original judgment. If the market shows resilience against negative news, strong support on pullbacks, and continuous capital inflows, the view will be dynamically adjusted. I will not fixate on bullish or bearish positions.
Ask yourself: is your current judgment supported by capital signals, or is it driven by emotions triggered by the market? Once there is a volume breakout above key resistance, this observation logic no longer applies.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Caught an interesting large holder position last night going long $ZK with 1x leverage on HL, position about 1.2 million USD, and the account still holds about 2 million USDC.
The timing is quite coincidental; that morning Vitalik just tweeted congratulating the ZKsync Airbender team, saying the "speed war" of zkEVM is over, and the next focus is security.
This account is probably the largest $ZK long on HL, but with only 1x leverage. Rather than speculation, it looks more like a large fund's spot-style layout, worth digging into their position-building logic.
Another related account of theirs built about 1.3 million USD worth of $ZK spot near 0.01 in early July, currently floating a profit of over 500k (70%+).
$ZK has roughly doubled in the last 30 days, and attention is just picking up. This wave is mainly driven by large holders, worth watching.$BTC $ETH $SOL
Federal Reserve officials' statements have landed, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in October, bringing a somewhat suppressive macro sentiment to the crypto space.
Simply put, no rate cut = market funding costs remain high. U.S. Treasury yields are stuck near a 20-year high, and capital prefers holding bonds for stable interest rather than flooding into risky assets like BTC. U.S. tech stocks have already taken the lead in pressure; AI-related stocks falling will drag down the crypto space's AI narrative coins' bullish enthusiasm.
On the other hand, this speech only confirmed no rate hike, without releasing a more hawkish signal, so it won't directly trigger a major drop. Market expectations have been priced in early, so extreme panic selling is unlikely in the short term.
In terms of sentiment, capital will become more conservative. BTC will find it hard to sustain continuous violent rallies, altcoin speculative plays will contract, and capital will prefer to cluster around BTC for hedging, increasing the selling pressure risk on high-level thematic coins.
Key observation point: Focus on U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations; if yields continue to rise, the pressure on risk assets will amplify again. 2. Why you can't blindly expect a raging bull market now
- Spot buying is not solid enough; the breakout near 87,000 failed, and the market is stuck oscillating between 80,000 and 87,000.
- Macro data and Fed expectations directly impact sentiment; although funding rates are not extreme, derivatives leverage can be liquidated at any time.
- Only a valid breakout above 87k and holding there counts as opening the way for further advances; falling below 80,000 and failing to recover will significantly weaken the bullish structure.
- A deeper bull-bear boundary references the short-term holders' realized price around 74,600; dropping below this requires reassessing the trend.
3. How to differentiate the current operational environment
- Bullish conditions: price holds above 82,000, volume recovers between 85,000 and 87,000, ETF inflows, and funding rates are not crazily overextended.
- Weakening conditions: daily close falls below 80,000, especially if it fails to recover after a wick; if 80,000 is lost, watch 77,500 and 74,600 levels.
- Confirmed reversal acceleration: daily valid breakout above 87k, then consider challenging previous highs and above 90,000.
- This is not a smooth one-way trend now; it looks more like a bull market pullback consolidation plus a macro waiting window, suitable for watching key level reactions rather than interpreting "bull market" as daily rises.
4. Direct reminders for short-term trading
High leverage is most easily shaken out by wicks in the 80,000–87,000 range. Layer your positions at 80,000, 77,500, and 87,000 levels; do not chase before a breakout, only consider validity after a wick recovers. Current trend judgment: bullish oscillation, short-term neutral to slightly bullish, defend 80,000.Current CME interest rate futures pricing shows the probability of a Fed rate hike at the October meeting has fallen to 17%, meaning the market's mainstream expectation is that rates will likely remain unchanged in October.
Although previous CPI and PPI data both exceeded expectations and inflation remains sticky, the market judges that a single-month inflation rebound is insufficient to prompt the Fed to immediately implement a rate hike. On one hand, the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the passive tightening of financial conditions have already had an effect similar to a rate hike.
But note: 17% is not zero; the option to hike rates is not completely closed. This probability is just the market's traded expectation and can change anytime with inflation and employment data. If core inflation rises again, the probability of a rate hike will quickly rebound.
Impact on crypto markets: short-term marginally positive. The cooling of rate hike expectations means the risk of further increases in high interest rates declines, easing pressure on interest-free high-beta assets like BTC and ETH. But this is only risk relief, not an immediate start to an easing cycle; rates remain high, making a strong one-sided rally unlikely, with a high probability of a volatile recovery.
The market needs to distinguish: no hike in October does not mean no hikes later. The market is currently postponing rate hike expectations, not directly pricing in a rate cut. The key focus is on the probability changes for the December meeting.
Key follow-ups: nonfarm payrolls, the next round of inflation data, and hawkish or dovish statements from Fed officials. $BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Recently, global tech stocks have taken a big dive. $SNDK SanDisk has dropped to around $1280 from above $1900, falling nearly $600. My long position in SanDisk is stuck at a very awkward level of $1600. After careful analysis, I found that this round of decline in SanDisk is mainly due to three overlapping factors.
First, US inflation data is hotter than expected, causing market concerns about interest rates staying high, which suppresses high-valuation tech stocks; second, progress in China's storage technology has triggered market worries about future competition, putting pressure on the entire semiconductor sector; third, SanDisk's previous gains were too large, and funds have started to take profits, with the market also re-evaluating AI storage.
Currently, around $1325 is a short-term level to watch. If it breaks, be cautious of further declines; if it rebounds, first look at $1380–$1400, then the resistance above $1450. It must be emphasized that support levels do not guarantee no further drops, and a rebound does not mean a trend reversal.
Next, the focus is on whether the semiconductor sector can stop falling and on SanDisk's earnings and future guidance from the October 29 financial report. My view is to first see if the market can stabilize before judging whether the rebound has sustainability. Don't assume the bottom is in just because the drop has been large. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ #黄仁勋力挺CoreWeave，信用担忧仍未消退 $CRWV
On the same day, the verbally stated cost of capital is decreasing, while the default probability reported by the bond market is rising.
▪️ Huang Renxun said in Stockholm on 10/15 that CoreWeave does not need Nvidia's financial backing
▪️ He said its cost of capital is decreasing
▪️ On the same day, its five-year CDS spread jumped 74.5 basis points to 1,194.5 basis points, a record high
▪️ According to this pricing, the cumulative default probability over the next five years exceeds 60%, compared to about 30% a year ago
▪️ Previously, the stock price fell about 15% in one day, and some bond prices dropped below 80% of face value
▪️ The yield to maturity of related bonds has exceeded 15%
The disagreement is not whether it will default, but who has the authority to say the word "backing".
Equity holders focus on growth, while creditors focus on the order of repayment. Nvidia is its upstream supplier; the supplier saying no backing is needed means leaving the repayment responsibility on the company's own balance sheet. CDS pricing reflects how much premium bondholders are willing to pay; this number is set by the market, not by the press conference.
The direction is to wait and see — bond prices returning above 90% of face value counts as credit repair; if CDS remains above a thousand points, refinancing remains a problem.10.19, Will Inflation Selling Pressure Be Drained?
On October 19, the Filecoin Solstice upgrade is not just a routine technical update but a significant turning point for the economic model. Three core changes:
1️⃣ Reward Mechanism Reshaped
Block rewards will favor storage services that bring paying customers; rewards without actual revenue will be directly burned, guiding the network toward commercial viability.MSCI wants to kick Strategy out of the index, will BTC really be implicated?
The market is worried that Strategy might lose its index constituent status, putting about $2.8 billion in passive funds at risk of adjustment. But there's a key distinction here: the fund selling MSTR stock does not mean Strategy has to sell the BTC it holds.
Bears believe that the withdrawal of index funds will suppress the stock price and even increase the difficulty for the company to raise funds to buy coins in the future; bulls argue that passive selling pressure on the stock cannot be directly equated to selling pressure on Bitcoin, and the short-term impact may not change BTC's supply and demand.
What I think is truly worth worrying about is not whether that $2.8 billion will directly crash the market, but whether this event will affect Strategy's ability to continue raising funds to buy coins. If it's just a stock adjustment, that's completely different from the company's financing ability being weakened.
In the crypto world, "potentially affecting buying pressure" is often directly interpreted as "immediately crashing the market," but there are actually several steps in between.
Do you think the main risk this time lies in MSTR stock, or will it transmit to BTC? If the company doesn't have to sell coins, is passive selling of stock by index funds alone enough to make you bearish? #MSCI新规或将Strategy等BTC财库公司移出指数 $BTC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Is Bitcoin at one million dollars a belief or a fantasy? ARK's predicted timeline revealed
ARK's Cathie Wood team presents three Bitcoin scenarios for 2030 in their report: a pessimistic scenario at $300,000, a base scenario at $710,000, and an optimistic scenario reaching up to $1.5 million. Many interpret this directly as "Bitcoin will definitely surpass one million by 2030," but this is only a model calculation, not a guaranteed outcome.
This million-dollar target is based on multiple idealized assumptions: spot ETFs continuously bring incremental institutional capital, Bitcoin steadily captures gold's store-of-value market; corporations and sovereign nations keep allocating; global regulation remains loose and friendly.
If any one of these conditions fails, the million-dollar projection will become invalid. Critics argue that achieving this goal requires massive capital inflows sustained over more than a decade, which is extremely difficult and leans more toward grand narrative.
Distinguishing belief from fantasy is crucial. ARK's model is a set of scenario assumptions, not a promise to be fulfilled. Cycles have uncertainties, and black swan events can change the market at any time. Do not rely solely on distant targets to heavily speculate; view institutional forecasts rationally and manage positions to guard against huge volatility risks.#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The market has priced the probability of a rate hike in October down to about 17%, but Waller refuses to set the tone for the next rate decision in advance. Does the market's 17% pricing align with Waller's statements?
🏛️ Pricing says stay steady, the chair's words haven't closed the door, watch the data closely before the rate decision
On one side is the price: the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to about 17%. On the other side is the tone: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Waller said he does not predict the remaining two rate meetings this year, neither supporting nor opposing colleagues' views of no rush to hike this month, only reiterating the goal of price stability; meanwhile, the Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range to 3.75% to 4%, with core CPI rising 0.33% month-over-month.
The tone is more credible than pricing: the 17% is written by the market itself, Waller hasn't closed the door. If this 17% rises again before the next rate meeting, it means the market is interpreting the lack of prediction as a risk.
#美联储10月加息概率降至约17%