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SEC收紧代币回购指南：只有“无中央方”的网络才能豁免 美国证券交易委员会（SEC）公司金融部于9月28日修订了其加密货币常见问题解答（FAQ），对代币回购公告的豁免条件增加了新的限制。根据修订后的内容，代币回购的豁免保证现在仅适用于同时满足两个条件的系统：网络已投入运行，且不存在中央方控制。 从“功能性”到“功能性加去中心化” SEC工作人员于9月25日首次发布该FAQ时，仅要求网络具备“功能性”。9月28日的修订增加了“且无中央方”这一明确条件。公司金融部对问题2.5的修订后答复指出，在同时满足上述两个条件的情况下，发行方宣布非证券加密资产回购计划“不构成对承担必要管理工作的陈述或承诺”。 这一修订涉及投资合同分析中的一个关键要素，即投资者所依赖的利润预期所对应的管理工作。根据SEC今年3月的解释文件，“中央方”指对加密系统拥有“运营、经济或投票控制权”的个人、实体或团体。系统仍处于中央方控制之下的发行方，不能仅凭功能性来适用修订后的答复。 SEC专员Hester Peirce在9月25日就曾明确指出这一限制。她在X平台上写道：“也许之前不够清楚，但如果你有中央方，你就不能依赖这个Another “mainnet scam,” and often the most costly is not the fees but trust.
The fake GIWA mainnet scam has caused users to lose about 766 ETH. The attacker used the real chain ID 9134 to disguise as the official network and induced users to transfer funds through a fake cross-chain bridge; the GIWA mainnet has not actually launched yet. Source: PANews.
The first to be hurt by such incidents is ecosystem trust; participants related to DYORSWAP and GIWA will feel the emotional impact first. Another more practical risk is that once unofficial RPCs, bridges, and contracts are misused, losses often occur directly on-chain.
If you are looking at a new chain, what should you verify first: the official RPC or the official bridge? 🌅 K-line Gentle Update · September 29 Morning Report
BTC at 83,500, ETH stands firm alone.
Bitcoin is currently around 83,500, down about 1% in 24 hours. It was still showing off at 87,000 earlier this week. Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal, oil prices surged, US Treasury yields stirred up, and risk assets collectively faced liquidity drain. The key support is at 82,500; traders are watching the weekly "inverse head and shoulders" neckline—holding this means the bull market structure remains intact.
ETH, on the other hand, is quietly running against the trend, currently around 2,689, up slightly 0.2% in 24 hours. But the 2,750 resistance has been hit multiple times and remains unbroken. Support is at 2,626; breaking that would target 2,575.
On-chain highlight: BlackRock withdrew 1,150 BTC (about 95.43 million) and 11,840 ETH (about 31.52 million) from Coinbase Prime in the past hour, totaling 127 million USD. Choosing to "withdraw" at the quarter-end is worth pondering.
Today, focus on the Middle East situation and US Treasury yields. At quarter-end, position management is more important than directional judgment. PONS Token Price Correction, Daily Protocol Revenue Still Maintains $250,000, High-Value Prospect Logic Analysis
1. Core Signal: Token Price Drop ≠ Business Revenue Decline, Business and Token Price Divergence
Usually, in small-cap token markets, a sharp price drop is often accompanied by a collapse in platform popularity and a cliff-like drop in trading volume, causing revenue to quickly fall to zero.
However, during the sustained price correction of PONS, the protocol's daily revenue remains stable at $250,000, conveying a very important fundamental signal:
1. Platform business traffic and trading demand have real sustainability; the heat is not a one-time hype driven solely by token price speculation. The price drop has not scared away token issuers and traders on the platform; the underlying trading demand is independent of the PONS token market itself.
2. Cash flow resilience. Revenue comes from platform trading fees; as long as the platform continues token issuance and trading, fees will be generated and will not be directly interrupted by the PONS token price decline.
2. Key Reasons Supporting Value Prospects
1. Stable cash flow continuously supports the buyback and burn flywheel
80% of protocol revenue is used to repurchase PONS on the secondary market and permanently burn them.
A daily revenue of $250,000 means about $200,000 can be used daily to continuously buy and burn tokens.
Even if the token price falls, the source of buyback funds remains unchanged; the same amount of funds can buy and burn more PONS at a lower price, accelerating the reduction of circulating supply and increasing the protocol earnings per token.
Simply put: with a price correction, the same dollar amount can burn more tokens, improving deflation efficiency.
2. Proves the platform is not a short-term hype bubble and has basic user stickiness
Many Meme launch platforms see trading volume drop to zero as soon as the market cools.
PONS has experienced a token price correction, yet the platform maintains stable trading volume, indicating:
- Platform tools (token issuance, automatic liquidity locking) have real utility; creators are willing to continuously issue tokens on the platform;
- An ecosystem of creators has formed, not just a group speculating on the PONS token;
- The ecosystem has a solid foundation and is not a castle in the air relying solely on token speculation.
3. Business model closed loop established, with cross-cycle capability
Business model: users issue tokens and trade on the platform, the platform collects fees → generates protocol revenue → 80% of revenue used to buy back and burn tokens.
This business model is proven and can still generate cash flow during token price bear markets or corrections.
In the future, once the sector market recovers, platform trading volume will further expand, revenue will grow beyond $250,000, and burn intensity will increase accordingly, forming a stronger positive flywheel.
4. Fully circulating + no new minting, cash flow value directly reflected in the token
PONS has no new token minting, total supply is fixed, and almost fully circulating.
Sustained stable revenue plus buyback and burn will continuously reduce circulating supply. In the long term, each PONS token corresponds to increasing platform profits, laying the foundation for valuation recovery.Under the wave of interest rate hikes, the fragile rebound of $BTC
After $BTC lost the low from four hours ago, it tried to rebound, but the strength was weak. The key level to watch is 82,000: if the real body breaks below this, the current rally may temporarily end, and when the rebound faces pressure, the bearish sentiment will dominate. ETH moves in sync, while XAU continues to fall, showing a clear contraction in market risk appetite.
The macro environment is unfriendly. The probability of a Fed rate hike in October has risen to 69.7%, and 54.8% in December; the ECB and the Bank of Japan are also tightening. Spot demand recorded a net outflow of 174,000 coins, and price increases rely more on ETF inflows, with insufficient endogenous buying.
Geopolitically, the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine issues remain unresolved, oil prices are high, and US Treasury yields are soaring. Both safe-haven and risk assets are under pressure simultaneously, making it difficult for BTC to stand alone.
Of course, if next month sees a large surge pushing above 91,000 and holding, it would indicate that a "bullish recovery" structure can still emerge amid the rate hike wave, warranting a reassessment then. Currently, the market is unclear; key levels and volume are more important than sentiment. Short on the rebound, reconsider on the breakout.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Bitcoin has been falling steadily from above $87,000 over the past two days, struggling around $83,000 intraday, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 1.6% at one point. On the surface, it looks like macro pressures are at play—oil prices surpassing $100, U.S. Treasury yields breaking 5%, combined with expectations of Fed rate hikes, putting risk assets under collective pressure.
But the truly interesting part of the market lies below.
The $81,400–$81,800 range is becoming the dividing line between bulls and bears. This level was previously resistance, but after the pullback, it has turned into potential support. The EMA50 on the 4-hour chart (around $83,473) also provides technical resonance here. In other words, this round of decline hasn’t broken the structure; instead, it has highlighted a clear defensive line. From the market structure perspective, the short-term holders’ cost basis is roughly around $85,000–$86,000, and the largest on-chain chip concentration is between $84,000–$85,000. This means Bitcoin hasn’t fallen to a "no-man’s land" but has retreated to a zone with substantial chip support. If the $81,400–$81,800 level holds, there is a possibility of a subsequent rebound back to $83,000–$85,000 and further upward extension. ETH has a very important bullish factor: ETF funds
This is currently a special aspect of the ETH market.
The US spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.75 billion in August, marking the strongest single-month performance in the past year; before mid-September, ETH ETF inflows even once surpassed BTC ETF.
This indicates:
> Although the macro environment is uncomfortable, institutional funds have not completely withdrawn from ETH.
Therefore, the recent pullback in ETH looks more like profit-taking after a rise rather than a clear trend of fund withdrawal at present.
However, it should be noted that a significant portion of the August ETF inflows was contributed by BlackRock's ETHA, indicating a high concentration of funds. So if ETFs experience continuous net outflows later, the market will weaken noticeably.
---
3. Technical market: now is actually very critical
Currently, ETH is around $2680, having quickly surged to about $2805 on September 21, then retreated to around $2680 to consolidate.
Structurally:
Around 2600 → first key support
2630–2650 → short-term bullish defense zone
2750–2810 → first dense resistance zone
Effective breakout above 2800 → can open further upside space $ETH $BTC SOL has shown a signal more worthy of study than the “ETF bullish” effect.
The US spot SOL ETF had a net inflow of about $188 million last week, setting a single-week record, with BSOL contributing about 68%.
However, SOL is currently around $118, down about 3.5% in 24 hours, a decline significantly larger than BTC and ETH.
This data indicates:
ETF demand has been confirmed, but price confirmation has not occurred simultaneously.
ETF inflows only prove that a funding channel is buying; they do not prove it has overcome spot profit-taking, leverage adjustments, and macro sell pressure.
Meanwhile, the Fed just raised interest rates to 3.75%–4.00%, and the PCE will be announced on September 30.
The next step is to verify two things: whether SOL can reclaim recent highs, and whether ETF net inflows can continue. If funds keep flowing in while prices continue to weaken, it means there is still greater supply in the market absorbing this new demand.Everyone has loss aversion psychology; whether it's loss of money, material things, or emotions, it causes aversion. This psychology is even more fatal in the trading market, leading to distorted trading behavior. For example, judging from the K-line trend that it will continue to rise, you choose to go long, but the market keeps falling, causing unrealized losses that have already reached the stop-loss set at entry. At this point, you refuse to admit you were wrong and choose not to stop loss. Even when the K-line slightly rebounds, you don't sell, believing it will continue to rise. As a result, the price keeps falling, breaking your stop-loss level. The time, effort, and money you have invested cause severe aversion. You wait and watch, thinking the market has bottomed and will rebound, so you choose to go long again, causing even greater losses.
Even worse, some choose to stubbornly hold without stopping loss, continuing to add positions to average down the loss cost, hoping the price will rise later and turn losses into profits. This feeling is very tempting. Maybe the first, second, and third times you do this, you turn losses back into profits, but eventually, you will encounter a black swan event, causing an irreparable situation.
Therefore, when facing losses, we must stop loss promptly and admit our mistakes. People are reluctant to admit their mistakes because of sunk costs and loss aversion.
In fact, trading is a way of cultivating the mind; it lets you see your own humanity more quickly and clearly, thus completing your own life mission. Actually, in this world, no matter what profession or task, it is a process of cultivating the mind. The highest realm is to block subjective consciousness and reach a selfless state, which is the closest existence to the Dao.
In life, there are many things that cause us aversion: a love that was abandoned, a friendship that was betrayed, a bankruptcy caused by investment failure, etc. Usually, these cause two extremes: one is not believing you will ever gain so-called love or friendship, or after one bankruptcy, thinking you are not suitable for investment and thus avoiding it; the other is, because of sunk costs, fully immersing in subjective emotions to try to salvage love and friendship, or continuing to invest without following the objective development of things. Both extremes cause great losses: missing out on your own love because you don't believe in love, and being unable to let go because of excessive investment of time, effort, and money. In a downtrend, no matter how much you add positions, you cannot avoid liquidation. A relationship about to be lost will inevitably be lost no matter how you try to save it. Writing this, my heart aches faintly.
Therefore, for all people and things, we must have our own stop-loss. Once the stop-loss is hit, no matter how much you care about the person or how large the funds are, or how much time, effort, and money you have invested, we should admit our mistakes immediately, pay the price, and leave. Do not give anyone or anything a second chance to hurt us.
To this day, thinking of Xiang Yu, who refused to cross the river to the east. When we face huge investments of time, effort, and money, we may have the same spirit as Xiang Yu, refusing to accept the current reality, vowing to live and die together with it. To put it nicely, this is heroic spirit; to put it less nicely, it is an inability to accept failure. Subjectively, I admire Xiang Yu, but objectively, his ending needs no further comment. As I said, do you want money or do you want sentiment?
Actually, nothing in this world belongs to us: money, status, fame, our lovers, our children, and the things we value do not belong to us; we only temporarily possess them. This gives us the illusion that these things belong to us, so losing them naturally causes pain. We come into this world with nothing and leave with nothing. You could say that when we are born, we already have everything. A child's happiness is the purest and happiest. Now, burdened by karma, people are neither fully human nor ghost. Perhaps only at the moment of death will we suddenly realize that everything in the world is an illusion.
Accept gains calmly and losses with indifference. Actually, along the way, we are constantly losing and gaining, always making choices and sacrifices. Only by letting go can we gain. So when facing things, we allow the existence of loss aversion emotions. When we see this emotion, we should not follow it. We must understand that losing is for better gaining. Never get stuck in regret, never think "if only I had done this or that." Regret is the most foolish way. Facing losses, regret is natural, but we should not be trapped by it. Instead, we should come out of this subjective emotion, objectively analyze the current situation, find solutions, and not blame ourselves. At that time, we already chose what we thought was the best solution; we just made a mistake. Life cannot have every decision be correct, and we should not be upset because we didn't make the right choice. People must lose something to gain insight.
So, taking the wrong path, loving the wrong person, doing the wrong thing, it doesn't matter. Life is long, and we will all face our own life missions and move toward our own happiness.A building doesn't start collapsing from cracks; it starts from the foundation—and the foundation is never in your line of sight. $GALFT's current structure is like a load-bearing blueprint halfway poured, with rebar not yet tied.
A 1.95% drop in 24 hours is not even considered an abnormal settlement observation on a construction site. But if you take a tape measure to check: within the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price stands at the 5th percentile, with only 0.1% margin left to the lower band, and 2.6% space above to the upper band. This is not crouching close to the wall; half the body has already poked out beyond the structural outline. The mid-term channel is even clearer—the price is at the -3rd percentile, lower band at -0.1%, upper band at +4.7%, with almost no retreatable construction surface below; one shovel down and it's original soil.
Now look at the stress readings. The 1-hour RSI reports 32.7, the long-term RSI reports 45.0; both are still oscillating in the neutral zone, with no true oversold extremes. The system's buy signal is essentially a temporary scaffold—able to hold weight but not a load-bearing wall. A nicely drawn blueprint does not guarantee earthquake resistance.
So my construction plan is to wait until the foundation pit reaches the design elevation before piling, rather than chasing the already formed columns upwards. The entry point is set at 0.87, 4.2% below the current price, meaning the price needs to fill down another 4.2% to execute—patience is the only structural adhesive here.
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.87 (current price -4.2%)
Take Profit 1: 0.97 (+6.7%)
Take Profit 2: 0.95 (+4.7%)
Stop Loss: 0.78 (-14.1%)
But there is a mechanical flaw that must be highlighted in red here: you are risking a 14.1% settlement risk to chase a 6.7% height gain, a risk-reward ratio of only 0.47 to 1. Any structural engineer seeing this reinforcement diagram would refuse to sign off—the load-bearing redundancy is severely uneven, the shear capacity is entirely concentrated on the 0.78 column; if this column shears off, the entire floor collapses with no expansion joints to relieve stress. This load is supported by sentiment, not calculation.
I've seen too many projects like this. The whitepaper is a rendering, the community is a sales office; what truly determines whether it can be built to the top is the construction quality of the underlying architecture and its long-term scalability. $GALFT's foundation is currently unstable but not collapsed; it is a plan where construction can start but the crane must be ready to be pulled away at any time.
On my blueprint, this building is only drawn up to the third floor—beyond that, the load curve will collapse before the price does.The regret about ZEC is setting a stop loss near the highest point after shorting, especially when fully invested long-term. 🚨 In the past 24 hours, the crypto market direction remains unclear, with $BTC fluctuating around $84,000. The weekend saw no ETF activity, leaving the market temporarily without new catalysts. The market is holding its breath, waiting for final guidance from macro data.
📊 【Data Breakdown: Capital Flow Remains the Strongest Signal】
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.4 billion last week, the highest weekly inflow since 2026, pushing the year-to-date cumulative capital into positive territory; $ETH ETF had a net inflow of about $690 million during the same period.
⚠️ However, BTC ETF daily inflows dropped from nearly $1 billion on Monday to $134 million on Friday, so sustainability still needs to be observed.
💡 【Industry Deep Dive: Risks and Macro Battles】
The Bitget security incident involved about $387.5 million. The platform plans to gradually resume withdrawals starting September 28. User fund flows and on-chain transfers of stolen assets remain worth monitoring.
🎯 This week is packed with macro data releases, including PCE, GDP, ISM, and employment data. If inflation or employment exceeds expectations, Fed expectations may be repriced, amplifying BTC and ETH volatility. Capital flow is relatively warm, but macro factors could become the next trigger.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/29)
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 All-in short on $SUI
Whale, don’t you like to pump?
Why aren’t you pumping now? Come on! Keep pumping!!
This is my position, if you have the guts, liquidate me directly!
No need for me to say how crazy $SUI was before.
It surged from 0.8 all the way to 1.295.
Those days, as long as you dared to short, it dared to keep pumping.
Think it’s topped out? It pumps again.
Think it should pull back? It just consolidates sideways.
That’s how many shorts got worn out to death.
But today is different.
$SUI started dropping from 1.295, now at 1.177.
Down -6.8% in 24 hours.
The 4-hour highs keep moving lower, 1.20 can’t hold anymore.
This isn’t a wick, it’s the structure loosening.
My $SUI short
Opened at 1.26.
20x leverage.
0.5 contracts.
Mark price around 1.177.
Current profit +131%!!
After being tortured by it for so long, finally it’s my turn to take a bite.
What I want to see most now is whether 1.15 can break.
There’s too much profit-taking above; once sentiment shifts from “buy the dip” to “sell the rally,” the drop will be faster than many expect.
And today it’s not just $SUI falling, the previously strongest batch of altcoins are also starting to retrace in sync.
When strong coins lose strength, sentiment reversal is the harshest.
Whale, don’t you like to pump?
Come on!! Keep going!!
If it can’t pump back, I’m looking at 1.10.
The shorts have been tortured enough, now it’s the bulls’ turn to suffer.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 ZEC's current price has dropped to $1487, with a 24-hour decline of 7.57%. Long positions were liquidated for $3.21 million while shorts had zero liquidations, indicating the bears are indeed in control.
Key levels: The $1520-$1545 range above is the MA5/MA20 convergence resistance zone, and $1476 below is the 23.6% retracement level, also the last defensive line near the trendline.
Your short logic: Whale Lee Goon Wang just placed a sell order below market price for 15,000 ZEC (about $23 million), a clear signal of unloading. Funding rates remain positive, with longs still paying to hold positions. If the price continues to fall, it could trigger passive position reductions causing a secondary downward push.
But note: RSI at 36.2 is weak but not oversold, implying there is still room to fall; another address increased its long position by 18,400 ZEC at an average price of $1622. If this batch of chips is forced to stop loss, it could accelerate the bears' momentum.
Breakdown scenario: If the 4-hour close effectively breaks below $1476, the next target is $1339. The follow-through after a quick rally is indeed weak, but there may be technical buying resistance near $1476, so it won't fall in one go. The bearish direction is correct, but don't chase shorts at the support level; wait for a weak rebound at $1520-$1545 before entering for a safer position. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Report, General! 🚨🦅📈
Wave: Iran-US de-escalation & $500M+ USDC mints trigger a massive Risk-On liquidity shock. Smart Money ignores noise.
Net: The $82k Concrete Floor is reinforced. Fresh USDC targets the $87k Steel Roof.
Tactic: Keep the $80k-$87.5k Spot GRID running. Zero manual FOMO.
With the D-1 academic calendar lockdown active, step away. Enjoy your coffee, focus on your life and pray quietly. Let the algorithmic nets farm the volatility! 🫡 Bitwise NEAR spot ETF approved for listing, and whenever such news comes out, the market loves to first surge with sentiment.
According to PANews, the Bitwise NEAR Protocol spot ETF has been approved for listing by NYSE Arca, with the ticker NRR. It will be custodied by Coinbase Custody and will stake NEAR, with a management fee of 0.75%. This is the first NEAR spot ETF in the US, which indeed provides NEAR with a more direct and compliant capital entry point and will also strengthen the institutional pricing narrative.
But despite the hype, the focus will still be on the official listing date, first-day trading volume, and net capital inflow. One scenario is that funds continue to revolve around ETF expectations, while another is that after the positive news is realized, the price may face pressure and pull back around $5. Are you more concerned about the first-day trading volume or the net capital inflow? The waterfall has finally arrived, but don't rush to celebrate. BTC is still $1000 away from your break-even point; this kind of "tremble" is the most dangerous—whales often spike first to trigger a rebound and sweep shorts before continuing to smash. After ETH breaks 2600, 2500 is the next psychological barrier; only if it fails to hold there can a deep correction be confirmed; if it quickly recovers above 2600, it's a false breakdown. The core reason for the market downturn is leverage clearing, which does not mean the bull market is over. Your short positions already have floating profits; what you should do now is move your stop-loss to lock in profits, not wait for the lowest point. Shorts at too low a price fear retaliatory rebounds the most, so don't add more shorts. Breaking even is just the passing line; don't gamble away the last wave of profits again. Watch BTC at 80000-80500 and ETH at 2500; follow the break, reduce on rebounds. Getting a good night's sleep is more important than breaking even. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Regarding buybacks, what is truly rewritten is not the issuer, but its counterparties.
Originally, when the issuer announced a buyback, the market assumed it was a commitment, and buyers dared to accept it. Now the SEC says that buybacks without a centralized entity do not constitute an investment contract, effectively removing the commitment. This was first proposed by a16z, and after the change, it actually became the easiest exit channel for the issuer.
From now on, counterparties must discern for themselves: who is backing this buyback, or if no one is backing it at all.
The verification point is straightforward: watch the next batch of projects announcing buybacks to see if there is any entity information. Once a buyback without an entity appears, the judgment is confirmed.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 #Ondo推出基于贝莱德策略的代币化投资组合 $ETH The trend of ZEC is a typical liquidity hunt, 30 points in 3 minutes, this is not a market move, it's a harvest. If you're hoping for a big crash to recover your losses, you've actually handed over the initiative to the manipulator — their specialty is to first make you despair, then give false hope, and finally sweep both ends. Opening two positions in the same direction at the same time essentially doubles your exposure, not your opportunity. The explosive rally tonight indicates a thin order book and dense leverage, making the cost of stop hunting extremely low. Don't fight it out of spite now; first reduce leverage, cut positions, and set hard stop losses. Surviving tonight is more important than breaking even. The manipulator won't let go of small gains; what they want is everything you've bet when you're emotionally charged. What lets you sleep peacefully is never a crash, but light positions. Don't rely on the manipulator, rely on yourself. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 9.29｜Day 25 of the 220,000 challenge to 10 million
Dogecoin current price $0.09, repeatedly rejected at the 0.10 level, 7-day SMA pressure above, MACD stagnating, RSI neutral, a typical momentum exhaustion rather than accumulation. In terms of long-short ratio, retail investors are 71.9% long, whale contract long-short ratio is 3.48, but active sell orders outweigh buy orders at a 0.79 ratio—bullish on paper, but marginally selling. Whales absorbed $112 million over 4 days, which is a somewhat positive signal, but this kind of accumulation may not immediately drive a rise, more likely to consolidate sideways first. For adding positions, watch the supply wall at 0.098-0.10: if volume breaks and holds above, follow; if it falls below 0.085-0.09, wait for the next round.
On the 28th, Trump denied reports of "willingness to lift sanctions conditionally," saying "I didn’t offer anything," but confirmed the same day that the US and Iran have exchanged information through mediators. The focus has indeed shifted from "whether to open" to "under what conditions to open," but Trump's flip-flopping itself is the biggest source of uncertainty. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $OKB seems to be gradually rising.
Recently, it's clear that the opportunity lies with MEME on the XLayer chain.
Previously, the other side rode a wave of ecosystem momentum driven by MEME, and now the spotlight has clearly shifted to OKX and XLayer.
The ecosystem is slowly heating up, on-chain activity is visibly recovering, and various new MEMEs and new narratives are emerging one after another.
$OKB is the native Gas token of XLayer; all transaction fees on the entire network must use it. It is the foundational core asset of the entire XLayer ecosystem, and as the ecosystem grows, it is the easiest to benefit from the dividends.
XLayer is also continuously taking action, with $5 million in RWA incentives and MEME trading competitions underway, contract deployment volume and on-chain TVL steadily increasing.
I am very optimistic about $OKB now: its market cap is too low, seriously undervalued, so I have added some to my position.
Market trends are market trends, and strategies are strategies, but I still remind everyone: optimism is fine, but position sizes must be stable, don’t recklessly over-leverage.
Especially MEME coins carry high risk, be prepared for the possibility of total loss. (Not recommended for beginners)
Has anyone clearly felt that the XLayer ecosystem is about to take off this time?
⚠️ The above is just my personal market insight and does not constitute investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility.A set of negative numbers, why can't they explain the followers' experience?
In the public data of Witty-IOU-Bush, there are two lines that are easy to misinterpret.
The trader's 90-day cumulative return rate is 20.57%. However, the current aggregated profit and loss of the follower group provided by OKX is -238,495.04 USDT.
One positive and one negative, it looks like a direct conclusion. But they are not statistics of the same thing: the former is the trader's cumulative return rate over a specified window; the latter is the aggregated amount of the current follower group, and the public interface does not provide a fixed historical window.
We also cannot see when each follower started, how much they invested, or whether they stopped early. Therefore, this negative value cannot be used to assert that "every follower lost money," nor can the two items be directly subtracted.
I also look at the path of returns: the maximum drawdown of the same 90-day public curve is 4.00%, with a total of 91 observation points. ATS is currently 61.47, with status FORMAL and confidence HIGH.
These numbers are worth continuing to record; as for why the two sets of profit and loss diverge, the existing public data cannot answer yet.
This article is based solely on OKX public data for trader behavior research and does not constitute investment advice.📰 【Rare in 25 years! 10-year US Treasury yield surpasses S&P 500 earnings yield】
According to Rhythm News, on September 29, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5% and exceeded the earnings yield of the S&P 500 index measured by the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio, pushing the attractiveness of bonds relative to stocks to the highest level in about 25 years. This means that based solely on yield comparison, investors holding US Treasuries are now receiving returns higher than the current earnings yield of stocks. Yale economist Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted excess P/E yield model shows that given current stock valuations and Treasury yields, the S&P 500 may only outperform bonds by about 1% annually over the next 10 years. However, the model's predictive accuracy has declined in recent years...
With US Treasury yields soaring to 5% and surpassing S&P earnings yields, basically traditional capital now finds earning interest by holding bonds more attractive than stock trading. At times like this, liquidity in on-chain risk assets tends to be withdrawn; Meme and altcoins will be more influenced by sentiment and capital flow in the short term, so don't just focus on the candlestick charts. Conversely, when expectations for rate cuts return, hot money will seek outlets again, and those currently farming airdrops and interactions might actually be in a comfortable window. What ecosystems have you been exploring lately?👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $HYPE SEC updates token buyback FAQ: Token buybacks without a centralized entity most likely do not constitute an investment contract.
This adjustment represents a regulatory easing for the crypto industry.
a16z previously proposed related opinions, and now the SEC has adopted and adjusted the wording.
This opens a compliance space for decentralized project token buybacks.Account Position Divergence Radar
$XAU top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 4.062, top positions long-short ratio is 0.706; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 6.369; price down 0.104%, position value change +0.36%.
$DOGE top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.718, top positions long-short ratio is 0.770; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.427; price up 0.24%, position value change +0.57%.
$WLD top accounts and top positions are both short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.715, top positions long-short ratio is 0.863; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.415; price up 0.33%, position value change +0.33%. The account number structure and position distribution of the top group are aligned.
XAU, DOGE: The side with the majority of accounts is opposite to the side with the majority of positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
XAU, DOGE, WLD: The overall market account structure is long-biased, which also differs from the top position bias.Trump's statement should be viewed just from an emotional perspective, not as a preview of the non-farm payrolls. If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, the rate cut expectations will cool down, the dollar will strengthen, and BTC and ETH are indeed likely to take a short-term hit. Your short positions at 81500 BTC and 2600 ETH are well placed, and the market also leans toward further correction. But the biggest risk is the "last chips all in": data is a random event, a single spike can trigger a short squeeze to the sky. If the non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, the short covering will be fierce. What you need to do now is not to shout slogans, but to set stop losses and control position sizes, don't let one piece of data decide the fate of your account. It's fine to be bearish, but don't bet your life. The scythe loves these "I went all in" moments the most. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 As of September 29, 2026, based on the latest macro data and ETH market conditions, I believe the core contradiction for ETH now is: mid-term funding conditions are improving, but short-term macro remains tight, with the price entering a critical battleground zone between $2600 and $2800.
1. Macro: The biggest variable remains the Federal Reserve
On September 16, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, while clearly stating that inflation remains elevated. In the September SEP, the median PCE inflation forecast for 2026 is 3.7%, significantly above the 2% target, and 17 out of 18 officials believe inflation risks are tilted to the upside.
The implications for ETH are quite direct:
High interest rates → U.S. Treasury yields/dollar tend to stay high → risk asset valuations are suppressed.
Therefore, the current ETH rally is not a purely "rate cut bull market" but is being propped up by capital flows and risk appetite under a relatively tight monetary environment.
Also, the U.S. macro data starting today is worth noting: August JOLTS job openings data will be released today, followed by employment and inflation data. The market will reprice the Federal Reserve’s policy path for October and beyond based on these data.What the main force wants is exactly this contrast: ignite sentiment with positive news, wear down patience with sideways trading, then complete the harvest with a spike. Aave App supports mainnet deposits, which is a long-term infrastructure benefit, but in the short term it only provides an illusion of liquidity. The resistance at 2720 holds firm, indicating real selling pressure above; the 15-minute MA5, MA10, and MA20 converge at 2690, signaling that the window for a trend change has opened. OKEx long-short ratio is 46:54, retail bulls still dominate, which often means this is not the bottom but the most comfortable hunting ground for the main force. Next, only two points matter: whether 2720 can break out with volume and hold, and whether 2690 will be breached. If it breaks above, then the positive news truly deserves to be called positive; if it falls below, those bottom-fishing will become the next batch of fuel. Don't rush, before the scythe swings, the market is usually the quietest. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Being able to exit this wave with only a 0.5u loss is already a pretty impressive defense. ZEC is indeed one of the most "volatile" assets in the current market, with its volatility logic intertwined perfectly with the macro background.
ZEC: Why does it experience a "two-way kill"?
The core of this ZEC market movement is structural catalysts combined with leverage liquidation, rather than a simple fundamental improvement.
The driving forces on the upside include: the launch of the first US spot ZEC ETF (Grayscale's ZCSH) at the end of August, bringing regulated new demand; Ironwood's upgrade at the end of July that patched the Orchard privacy pool vulnerability, restoring the narrative of "supply integrity"; and the self-reinforcing cycle of forced short liquidations.
The triggers on the downside are even more brutal. Around September 27, ZEC hit a high of about $1,550-$1,650, after which RSI and trading volume both receded, causing short-term momentum exhaustion. The price then quickly dropped, falling from $1,589 to $1,519 within just 4 hours, a 24-hour decline of 4.48%; followed by another 2.63% drop within 1 hour, with Binance spot accumulating a 7.57% decline compared to 24 hours earlier. During this period, long position liquidations far exceeded shorts — in just one time frame, Binance, Bybit, and OKX combined liquidated $3.21 million in longs, while short liquidations were zero.
This is the mechanism of the "two-way kill": first, a violent pump to squeeze shorts, attracting chasing long funds; then, lacking support at the high, a rapid drop to clean out long leverage.Bitcoin and Ethereum have now fully entered a grinding hell, with prices stuck oscillating within a range, unable to rise or fall, as if welded to the chart! Occasionally, they lightly poke the resistance level upwards, only to be slammed back down by selling pressure; a slight dip touches support, then buying forces pull it back up. These small wicks back and forth look lively but actually have no direction at all!
BTC is relatively stable, just lying flat and tugging within the range. ETH is even more torturous, with constant small fluctuations and fake moves everywhere—sometimes baiting longs, sometimes baiting shorts, harvesting both sides in turn. When you go long, it falls; when you go short, it rallies, specifically shaking out traders' mentality!
Right now, it's a tug-of-war with existing funds; bulls lack strength to break out, bears can't push it down. The market is waiting for major upcoming data, and no one wants to make the first move, so volume has directly wilted.
This kind of narrow-range oscillation is the worst for short-term traders! Frequent trades just waste fees, with stop losses getting hit back and forth. Never try to guess when the breakout will happen; before the oscillation ends, any one-sided speculation is a trap!
Control your hands and watch patiently, wait for volume to break the range before making a move.
Let's discuss, do you think this sideways consolidation will eventually break upwards or crash down directly? $BTC $ETH $SOL Woke up to messages from friends, ZEC finally dropped...
Current price is 1482, and I have eight words in my heart: it wiped out my unrealized gains again...
$ZEC surged to 1697 a few days ago, it was fierce, the bears got beaten so badly they were unrecognizable. Now it has fallen back to 1482, which means everyone who chased the high is left stranded on the mountaintop in the wind. From the peak, it has retraced over 200 points, clearly weakening in the short term. Support below is at 1450-1470; if it breaks, look for 1400 or even the previous low at 1444; resistance above is at 1550-1600, if it can't rebound past that, it remains weak.
Those who chased longs above 1650 are probably playing dead in the chat now, no one mocking anyone, the market punishes all kinds of arrogance.While they are still arm-wrestling verbally, the oil tankers have already set off
#US and Iran continue negotiations on conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz
The most paradoxical part of this: negotiations are stuck, but the cargo has already moved.
As of 08:02 on September 29, Trump rejected Iran's 7-day reopening proposal, but the window is not closed, and talks are expected to continue this week. On the other hand, Kpler estimates that about 7.4 million barrels per day of crude oil were transported through the Strait of Hormuz in September, with Middle Eastern oil-producing countries' exports reaching the highest level since the war began. The focus has shifted from "whether to fight" to "under what conditions to open."
The paradox is this: diplomacy hasn't softened at all, logistics haven't stopped at all. Yet the market is pricing both ends—the rebound in oil flow hasn't suppressed oil prices, and oil prices in turn are feeding inflation and interest rate hike expectations. I'm cautiously bearish on Bitcoin short-term; if oil prices continue to strengthen, risk assets won't catch a break.
To put it plainly, the strait hasn't opened verbally, but the oil tankers have already docked. Don't rush to treat the 7.4 million barrels per day as a risk resolved; not a single item on the conditions list has been implemented.
The real agreement isn't signed at the press conference, but at the moment the oil tankers safely enter and exit. In the short term, watch oil prices; in the long term, watch navigation conditions.
$BTC $CL
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Nonfarm payrolls hit on Friday
Everyone get your margin ready
There will be a spike
Currently, all data looks pessimistic
The yellow hats won't relent on Iran
There is also an interest rate hike expectation in October
The US stock market is also crashing hard
Yesterday, long positions liquidated reached 420 million
There probably won't be a major upward channel this week
Most likely it will remain mainly volatile
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 The probability of a rate hike in October is nearly 70%, and both gold and Bitcoin are falling together.
This week is data week, but the market has already surrendered.
As of September 29, 08:02, BTC has retreated to around 83,400, and even safe-haven gold plunged 3.71% in a single day to 4,125. There is no independent negative news; both risk assets and safe-haven assets are falling together. This is a typical liquidity trade, not a flight to safety.
The schedule is tight: August PCE will be released at 20:30 on September 30, and September non-farm payrolls will be released at 20:30 on October 2. The market prices in nearly a 70% chance of a rate hike in October, and long-term US Treasury yields have risen to their highest levels since 2007. The July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%; whether it cools down this time will directly determine the interest rate path.
My view: I am cautious before the data is released. If the 82,500 support is broken, I turn bearish and look toward the 80,000 level; only if it retakes the 85,000 resistance zone can we talk about recovery.
Which side are you on this data week? Reply "long" or "short" + a reason.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $XAU
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.Two months of mechanical spot buying has produced a +20.29% account gain, and the investor behind the log is more anxious than when he started. That is the tell. $BTC is pinned at 83,500, wedged between 83,105 support and 84,900 resistance after bouncing off an 82,556 low, and the discomfort is not about direction — it is about the absence of one. The strongest live narrative in this tape is not price. It is absorption. $SOL sits at 118 with ETF net inflow data described as very impressive, yet Crypto Market Brief: On the Eve of Data Week, Liquidity is Being Cut Across the Board
Market Overview: Before the data release, the market is preemptively cutting liquidity. BTC, gold, and altcoins are all pulling back simultaneously, with no clear one-sided trend. This is a risk-off cooldown rather than a trend reversal.
• BTC: Retraced to around 83,000, fluctuating repeatedly between 81,500-84,200 to shake out leverage; support at 82,500, resistance at 84,800-85,000.
• ETH: Struggling near 2,680, following BTC but with weaker momentum.
• Altcoins: Clear divergence, ZEC dropped 9.37% in one day to 1,454, high-level thematic fade, chasing gains carries high risk.
✅ Positive: ETFs continue to see net inflows; Hormuz oil transport is picking up, easing supply concerns slightly.
⚠️ Negative: PCE on September 30 and Nonfarm Payrolls on October 2 are approaching; October rate hike probability near 70%, US Treasury yields at highest since 2007.
Short-term outlook: Expect range-bound consolidation before data, funds are cautious about increasing positions; only if PCE cools and funds recover will there be a chance for repair, hotter data will push support lower.
Currently, this is a risk-off wait-and-see market, not a trending market. ⚠️ This article does not constitute any investment advice.$BTC dropped to $83,400
This is still a bull market correction
BTC fell back to around $83,400 today
But the capital flow and price show a clear divergence.
Last week, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $2.4 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow in nearly a year, and directly pulled the cumulative ETF capital flow for 2026 back into positive territory.
In other words, as BTC dropped from $87,000 to around $82,000, institutional funds were actually buying heavily.
The range from $76,000 to $84,000 has already been traversed once, and now $82,000–$83,000 has again become an area to watch.
As long as there is no continuous large-scale withdrawal of ETF funds, this decline looks more like chip exchange within a bull market rather than the end of the trend.🚨 I'm going to tell you right now how this will end, even before it has started
Most people will scoff at this roadmap today.
By December, those same people will be passed out in a frenzy, firmly believing Bitcoin will only go up, never down.
Then, they will realize the peak is forming right ahead.
My roadmap:
September → Rebound
October → Bull market sprint
November → Frenzy
December → All-time high
January → Trough season
February → Distribution
March → Crash
April → Despair
May → Bear market phase
Retail investors get wiped out like this in every cycle.
They hesitate during the rebound.
They finally buy in during the frenzy.
They refuse to sell during distribution.
Then, after the damage is done, they panic sell.
Save this chart.
Come back and check when everyone suddenly starts thinking the bull market will last forever in December.
Then come back again when the timeline starts claiming everything is "obvious."Big brother Maji strikes again. 40x leverage, 100 BTC, worth $8,392,600, opening price 83310. The new position has an unrealized profit of 61,600, but the historical cumulative loss is still 29,108,000. Nearly 30 million in losses not covered, yet he keeps adding to his position. The total long position has rolled up to $127 million.
Veteran traders all know, Maji's liquidation is nothing new; what's surprising is that every time he gets liquidated, he always manages to recharge and get back in the game. So this $127 million long position means either he really smells a big opportunity, or he's completely obsessed and holding on no matter what. 40x leverage is not faith, it's a fuse. If the direction is right, it's called courage; if wrong, it's fuel.
The most dangerous time in the market is not when no one dares to bet, but when someone keeps raising the stakes with bloodshot eyes after losing. This position looks thrilling, but don't mistake a madman's courage for your own signal. $ETH $ZEC #This week brings non-farm payrolls and PCE key data #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Forward PE is only 6.9, yet the market is arguing about the peak
Micron reported earnings after the market closed on September 30, but the debate isn't about the results—it's about how long the favorable conditions can last.
As of 08:02 on September 29, UBS set a target price of $1625, which is a 48% upside from the closing price of $1096 on September 22, and expects the DRAM supply-demand gap to widen until 2027; on the other hand, Micron's stock has nearly tripled this year and recently rose about 18%, with a forward PE of only 6.9; UBS expects server DDR bit demand to grow by about 80%. The company's own guidance is also strong: revenue around $50 billion, gross margin about 86%.
My view: slightly bullish before the data is released, but don't chase the highs. Whether this quarter beats expectations is just the entry ticket; next quarter's guidance will set the tone. If the gross margin can't hold near 86%, or next quarter's revenue guidance is clearly below $50 billion, I will turn bearish; if it holds, the storage sector rally is not over yet.
On earnings night, are you betting on a beat or a miss? Reply "beat" or "miss" plus a reason.
$MU
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. ZEC Trading Review: Taking Profits Is Harder Than Opening Positions, Position Management Beats Direction Prediction
In this round of profits, ZEC contributed about 80%. After gradually going long around 470, it almost dominated this round's profit curve. The real challenge is not opening positions but taking profits. Opening positions relies on logic and odds, but selling requires facing the anxiety of "will it continue to rise?" The value of taking profits in batches is not about selling at the highest point, but about avoiding being driven by emotions when fully invested—locking in some profits gives the confidence to wait; leaving some positions allows continued participation.
ZEC's mid-term logic has not yet been falsified: the privacy narrative repricing, the institutional demand base brought by ETFs, and the technical differentiation of quantum-resistant upgrades still exist. However, the short-term rapid rise means volatility risk is real. The 1500–1680 range will likely be digested repeatedly, and a deeper pullback is not ruled out. Managing positions well at this time is more important than guessing the direction.
Currently, all long positions have been taken profit on; bearish but not shorting, testing a small short on $ZEC.
Summary: The mid-term narrative remains intact, short-term risk control first; taking profits is not the end, but a way to keep yourself at the table.Everyone heads west, I head east
Many people are puzzled. A few days ago when ZEC surged, you kept saying to short it, and now that it’s starting to drop sharply today, you’re saying to go long?
You’re right, today I’m saying to go long.
The long-term bearish logic for ZEC hasn’t changed, but as I said yesterday, this is a strong coin controlled by a major player, and it’s currently in a critical period of a fierce battle between bulls and bears, a desperate struggle. The major player can accept a market-wide pullback, meaning ZEC falls along with the overall market, but definitely cannot accept the scenario where the overall market rises and ZEC falls alone. I’ve also mentioned before that time is ZEC’s biggest enemy; the longer it goes, the harder it is to control the market. Right now, bulls and bears are still fighting over orders, market sentiment is high, and it can still attract speculative capital. Once the major player can’t counterattack during a downtrend, the entire market will turn bearish, so where will the major player’s coins go?
In my view, ZEC’s movement today will first pull back then drop, and in the afternoon or evening, it will surge explosively. (The above is my personal speculation; if you have other ideas, please share them in the comments.)
$ZEC $BTC
[In-depth Analysis] Current price 83487, intraday -1.1%.
The price is just a slow decline; putting the institutional side and the contract side together, the direction isn't that simple.
First, look at the institutional line. Goldman Sachs has connected about $100 billion of Treasury bond funds to the crypto institutional settlement channel, without issuing new tokens, paving the way for institutional capital.
This news won't push the price up in the short term; it's a slow variable.
Next, look at the contracts. The network-wide funding rate is 0.004%, almost at zero, indicating that the long sentiment is not strong.
Open interest is 92,865 contracts, with a long-short account ratio of 1.36, and long accounts make up 58%.
Price is falling, funding rate is flat, and open interest hasn't surged; this is a consolidation digestion, not a panic liquidation.
What signals to watch: First, watch the previous low at 82,800; holding this means a low-volume pullback.
Second, watch the funding rate; turning negative indicates shorts are starting to actively attack.
Third, watch the net inflow after the institutional channel is established; it's a slow variable and can't be rushed.
The invalidation level is just below 82,800; losing this short-term structure requires reevaluation.
Resistance above is at 85,000; failing to break this means it's only a rebound.
Risks clarified: repeated macro data fluctuations and ETF subscription/redemption shifts could interrupt this recovery.
This is analysis only, not advice; risk at your own discretion. At this position, would you choose to go long first, or wait for a pullback to 82,800 before deciding?
$BTC $ZEC previously surged above $1600
Now it has dropped back to around $1460 in one go, with a nearly 9% pullback in 24 hours.
But the biggest recent change for ZEC has actually occurred on the funding side.
Grayscale's ZCSH has been listed for less than a month, and its asset size has already approached $890 million, with new funds exceeding $233 million during this period.
On September 30, ZCSH will officially start trading after a 3-for-1 split.
At the same time, Zcash's total network hash rate and mining difficulty have both recently hit all-time highs.
So the $1460–$1500 range is very critical.
If this pullback can reclaim $1500, there is still a chance to retest the previous high near $1600.Gold Morning Analysis for September 29:
This week is a super data week, with upcoming PCE and non-farm payroll data releases. Funds have started to seek safe havens in advance, and bulls are gradually reducing their positions and exiting. After the price broke key support levels, a large number of stop-loss orders were triggered, further accelerating the downward movement.
The large-scale bearish structure on the hourly chart remains unchanged, with only a slight slowdown in the decline currently; the KDJ indicator on the 30-minute chart is turning upward from a low position, which is merely a technical correction after the drop, not a signal of trend reversal.
Resistance is expected on the rebound, with priority given to a pullback. Strict risk control should be maintained, and avoid subjective predictions of a one-sided market.
Trading suggestion: Short in the 4130-4150 range, target 4090. If broken, continue to watch for a drop near 4000.SK Hynix was short-term hit by rumors of Solidigm's IPO, causing volatility and pressure.
However, the mid-to-long-term demand logic for HBM remains unchanged, and the AI storage shortage cycle is expected to continue for many years.
The short-term decline is driven by sentiment from news and has not fully digested the negative factors yet, so don't rush to bottom-fish.
Mid-term opportunities depend on HBM orders and storage pricing, with risks lying in geopolitics and industry competition.
Let's discuss in the comments: With this storage pullback, do you plan to wait and see or build your position gradually? $SKHYNIX $1. Underlying currents: The extreme standoff between institutional buying and whale cashing out ① ETFs are sucking up funds crazily, with weekly inflows hitting a near one-year high, while whales like Saylor continue to aggressively accumulate. ② However, large holders dormant since the Satoshi era for 15 years are liquidating and exiting; early Ethereum holders are offloading hundreds of millions of dollars, and the smart money's high-level cashing out cannot be ignored. 2. Fatal warning: Altco$BTC $ZEC $SOL Why did I catch them again!! Another replay of a double whammy for bulls and bears!!
The new coin XDPUSTD was heavily shorted right after listing, starting to drop from 0.003. When I entered short, it dropped -40%. At 0.001844 I followed to short again, but suddenly it started to rally to 0.002030, and I got trapped. Then I quickly reversed to go long with one click. After a grueling wait, I finally made a profit. This in and out first lost 18 then gained 12, but actually ended up losing in the end.
The funding fee actually reached 1% and was adjusted to settle every two hours. This coin is very hard to rise, but the risk of shorting is also very high. You can't even afford the rent fee alone, so for meme coins like this, better to avoid or at least trade less in the future.
Recently, I lost more in one day than I earned in the past week, feeling like my mindset is a bit broken #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 $ETH has now returned to around $2670
The price still hasn't broken out of the $2600–$2800 range of consolidation.
But there was a very obvious change last week.
The US spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of $689.9 million in one week, whereas the previous week had a net outflow of about $140 million.
A nearly $830 million change in funds indicates that institutional money hasn't completely exited due to the earlier ETH correction.
BTC is still fighting for 83000, and ETH remains below 2800.
If $BTC stabilizes again later, what ETH needs to watch is whether it can break above 2800 again. Once this level is reclaimed, the market will truly shift from consolidation back to an upward trend.This week is truly a "data bomb week," so let me help you prioritize.
Let's start tonight with two appetizers: the U.S. August JOLTs job openings and the September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Wednesday is the main event — the final Q2 GDP along with the core PCE; Friday brings the nonfarm payrolls directly.
Why focus on these? The market's biggest dilemma right now is: how much longer will interest rates stay high? As long as employment and inflation data remain strong, the pricing for "higher and longer" will be reinforced, and risk assets will continue to be weighed down by this burden.
My stance: during data weeks, I don't blindly bet on a single number—that's just gambling on size. I only hold positions overnight when there's macro logic supporting the directional expression. When tonight's data comes out, the key isn't the number itself, but which way it shifts interest rate expectations.