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What's going on? What happened?
$BTC surged 2 points, $ETH exploded up 6 points?
I checked, and this rally doesn't have any sudden positive news; it's just a resonant market driven by continuous ETF inflows supporting the bottom and concentrated short squeezes. ETH's sharp rise is simply because it has greater elasticity and more squeezed shorts.
Looking at the data, BTC spot ETFs have had a cumulative net inflow of $3.8 billion over the past three weeks, setting the strongest inflow record this year. Institutional buying has been steadily absorbing selling pressure; on the ETH side, BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs have simultaneously increased inflows, with institutions clearly accelerating their accumulation pace. The reason for the sharp rally is that a large amount of short positions accumulated during the sideways phase, and once the price broke a key level, it triggered a chain of forced liquidations, with passive buying amplifying the gains.
ETH's gains far exceed BTC's, and the logic is simple: ETH's beta is inherently higher, it had a deeper prior pullback, and short positions are more concentrated, so the short squeeze naturally has greater elasticity. Coupled with ecological expectations as a foundation, funds entering the market prioritize more elastic assets.
But I don't recommend chasing the highs. Short-term short squeeze rallies rise fast, and profit-taking happens quickly too. Strong support for BTC is at 78,500, and for ETH at 2,450. It's much more comfortable to re-enter after a stable pullback than to chase at the top. Institutional entry is a long-term logic; short-term fluctuations are all about sentiment, so don't get the timing wrong.
Do you think this wave of ETH can reach its previous high? $BTC is rising amid rate hike expectations, but something feels off with this move
Core CPI month-over-month is 0.3%, clearly higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has been pushed above 80%. Normally, BTC should continue to get hit.
But instead, $BTC pulled up.
It seems the market fears not a slightly hot number, but rather bad news that no one was prepared for.
PPI, oil prices, and US Treasury yields have already priced in rate hike expectations in advance over the past few days. Although tonight's CPI is hawkish, it’s not bad enough to spiral out of control, and US stocks are even rising.
So this BTC rebound, I prefer to interpret it as after the bad news landed, the bears failed to keep pushing the price down.
Don’t rush to call a reversal yet; first, let’s see if BTC can reclaim the $78,000 to $79,000 range.
If it holds, it shows the support around $76,000 is indeed solid.
If it can take back $80,000, then tonight’s slightly hot CPI might actually serve as an emotional release point for this round of decline.
#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 US August CPI: MoM 0.4%, YoY 3.4%; Core CPI MoM 0.3%, YoY down from 2.5% to 2.4%. On the surface, the annual core is cooling down, but short-term momentum is picking up again. The day before, PPI was also concerning, YoY 5.4% higher than expected, core MoM 0.2% lower than expected, showing divergence on the production side.
Coupled with strong employment, interest rate futures have surged from 70% to 90% probability of a 25 basis point hike in September, almost a done deal.
But after the data release, $BTC rose from 76,400 to 78,000, and $XAUT climbed to $4390. With a 90% rate hike probability, risk assets actually rose, indicating that the hawkish expectations were already priced in, shorts covered before the event, and mechanical buying pushed prices up.
Now the market debate is not about whether the data is hot or not, but whether energy and production costs will continue to transmit to the service and consumer sectors. The core YoY decline—whether it’s a trend or noise—is the key to deciding if the rate hike cycle will exceed expectations.
The lifeline of this rebound is not the rate hike itself, but whether there is something more hawkish waiting after the hike. If it’s just the expected hawkishness, the bad news is fully priced in; if inflation stickiness is confirmed again, the rebound could be pushed back at any time. #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 For Bitcoin, the US stock market fluctuates inconsistently. Here's an explanation:
CPI data reflects the past but affects the future. Especially since the headline clearly states "August CPI," whether high or low, it's already in the past. However, this past data will influence the decision on September 17, and that decision will affect liquidity thereafter.
Meanwhile, today's oil price peaking and falling directly impacts current market liquidity, so short-term rises and falls are not surprising.
The shorter the timeframe, the more factors and chaos in the game. You can't apply a long-term trend to explain minute-by-minute price changes; that makes no sense.兄弟们啊，开奖了呀，开奖了哇！
CPI同比3.4%，环比0.4%，核心CPI环比0.2%，全部踩在预期线上，一个子都没多也没少。
没有爆冷，没有惊喜，也没有惊吓。
我$ETH 空单2471进的，现在2475，浮亏4刀。
数据出来那一刻，没有暴赚，也没有归零——就这么不上不下地卡着。
华尔街之前赌加息概率72%，数据符合预期，这个概率不会大变。
美联储下周大概率还是站在刀刃上，加不加全看下周沃什怎么表态。
油价还在100上方晃，伊朗那边炸完又谈、谈完又炸，能源这头通胀的根子没解决。
大饼$BTC 77300，横了一天，数据出来估计也就这样了
符合预期等于没有催化剂，谁也别想有大动作。
$ZEC 那两笔433万U的多单还是埋着的，1112没人接，跟我没关系，但看着也瘆得慌。
这单不赚不亏，就耗着。不加仓，不止损。
数据没给答案，那就等下周FOMC给。
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 SOL at $105, do you dare to chase it?
First, look at the surface: macro triple whammy, SOL is knocked back to its original state.
PPI is hot, core CPI slightly exceeds expectations, dollar index at 99, US Treasury yields high — risk assets all take a hit. On Thursday, SOL dropped below 100 with a big bearish candle, hitting a low of 98, and retail investors started complaining again: "Trash SOL, it can't rise anymore."
But then? On Friday, it bounced back from 98 to close at 100, with a lower shadow rebound, and on-chain data strengthened across the board.
First thing: on-chain data is contradicting the price.
SOL price has dropped more than 60% from the 2025 high of 295, but look at the chain:
Daily application layer fees are about $5.09 million, still among the top public chains.
RWA increased to $2.5-3 billion, with a rising share of TVL.
Stablecoin supply is $15-16 billion, daily active users and non-voting transactions remain high.
Transaction v1 launched on September 9, increasing max transaction size from 1232 bytes to 4096 bytes.
SGP-0002 inflation accelerated decay proposal passed, easing long-term supply pressure.
Second thing: institutions are buying, but slowly.
Bitwise and others continue buying, with spot ETF cumulative net inflows around $1.34 billion. Sounds like a lot? But recent inflows have clearly slowed.
What does this mean? Institutions are not bearish; they are waiting for macro developments. The FOMC meeting on September 15-16 still has a high probability of a 25bp rate hike. Big money won't go all-in before the hike, but they are quietly accumulating at low levels.
Third thing: the technicals have reached a critical level that must be closely watched.
Daily chart: broke below 100 on Thursday, recovered on Friday, forming a lower shadow rebound candle. The mid-term moving averages bullish alignment remains intact, but 107-110 above is a dense trapped zone.
Below 100 is a liquidity hunting zone, 105-107 is a battleground between bulls and bears.
Only with volume and a firm hold above 107 can the August trend continuation be discussed. Breaking below 98 means failure to consolidate and deeper pullback.
Support: 103-100 (psychological + platform) → 98-97.7 (key defense) → 95-92 → 90-85
Resistance: 107-110 (August highs + weekly resistance cluster) → 115-120 → 146 (long-term structural level)
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
On-chain usage, RWA, and stablecoins all strengthening.
ETF cumulative inflows of $1.34 billion, institutional channels opening.
Inflation decay proposal passed, easing long-term supply pressure.
August monthly candle rose 46%, first positive close in nearly 10 months.
On the other side:
Hot PPI + core CPI exceeding expectations, rate hike expectations suppressing.
Strong dollar, high US Treasury yields, pressure on non-yielding assets.
Dense trapped positions at 107-110, failed three times.
Recent ETF inflows slowed, institutions are cautious.
Critical level 105, only $5 away from the lifeline at 100.
Around 105 is better to wait for confirmation, not a place for emotional chasing.
Trading strategy
Bearish / sell high:
If it rebounds to 107-110 and shows upper shadow or volume stagnation, short lightly with stop loss above 112, target 102-100.
Bullish / buy low:
If it pulls back to 100-98 and shows clear bottoming (long lower shadow + volume contraction or rebound with volume), buy lightly with stop loss below 97, target 107-110, reduce position upon reaching.
Breakout strategy:
If daily close holds above 110 and pullback does not break it, target 120. If it breaks below 98 effectively, temporarily bearish to 92-90.
SOL now is a typical case of "fundamentals are not bad, price is stuck by macro."
It's not that it can't perform, macro conditions are holding it back. Wait for the rate hike to land, then we'll see who's swimming naked.
100 is the bull-bear dividing line, 105 is the confirmation waiting zone. Don't get overexcited before the FOMC, surviving is the key to catching the next wave.
At 105, do you dare to chase?
$ETH $ETH $SOL #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 🚨 After the CPI release, market sentiment suddenly reversed!
The just-released US CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and reached 3.4% year-over-year. Although the data is not particularly ideal, it did not show worse-than-expected deterioration. The market interpreted this as "the negative impact has not further expanded," so risk assets quickly caught a breather.
In the crypto market, $BTC stabilized first, $ETH and $SOL strengthened simultaneously, and $ZEC experienced a sudden sharp fluctuation that knocked me out 😂.
Even more absurdly, $SPCX started showing unrealized gains. This kind of market really makes one wonder: could a reversal really start tonight?
But we can't rush to conclusions yet.
What really matters about the CPI is not just the number itself, but the subsequent market reactions in US Treasury yields, the US dollar, and the US stock market opening. If after the data release, interest rate expectations do not continue to heat up significantly, and risk assets can hold this rally, then short-term sentiment could indeed further recover.
However, the real determinant of the next phase direction remains the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting around September 15. CPI is just one card; we still need to watch employment, inflation expectations, and officials' statements to see if they collectively support changes in rate cut/hike expectations.
So don't rush to chase the rally tonight.
Data not worsening significantly is good news in the market's eyes; whether it can move from "negative impact landing" to a true reversal depends on capital support after the US stock market opens. Tonight's inflation data is troublesome not only because it raises the probability of a rate hike in September, but also because of rising core inflation, sticky service sector, increasing housing data, and preliminary clear signs of secondary energy transmission to inflation.
Once a September rate hike is confirmed, and the core CPI in September also shows stickiness, the expectation of further rate hikes will be raised, which is the most troublesome point for risk markets.
Regarding the market impact, why are risk assets rising even though the rate hike probability has entered the pricing stage?
The main reasons are as follows:
Bad news has landed + CPI is hawkish but not far beyond expectations + September rate hike changes from uncertainty to certainty + crude oil prices fall + long-term yields decline.
Simply put, the certainty of a September rate hike allows the market to start adapting, and the negative impact of rate hikes on risk assets has not yet appeared, so the market is currently in an optimistic window.
This rebound will briefly explode tonight, similar to a sudden emotional outburst after suppression; next week will enter a calm period, quietly waiting to see if the September rate hike will be implemented.
Once the Fed announces a rate hike in September, it will also be a small rebound as the bad news lands, but the market will truly feel the pressure from the rate hike and subsequent continued hikes!
So, cherish the current optimistic window, closely watch crude oil and long-term bonds; once crude oil stops falling and rebounds, and long-term and short-term yields rebound simultaneously, tonight's optimism may be suppressed!#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 The 28.7 million $TRUMP dumped on September 18 is actually the trading volume of a full 13 days!!
Everyone is calculating that the 28.7 million unlocked on 9.18 accounts for 2.9% of the total supply, but more critical than the number itself is its relationship with market capacity.
$TRUMP fell 1.4% today, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $4.27 million. At the current price of $1.969, the whole market can only absorb 2.16 million tokens per day. The amount to be dumped on 9/18 is 13.3 times this figure—about $57 million at the current price.
And this 13-day volume does not even include what has already been drip-released before. From September 1 to today, $TRUMP has been unlocking at a rate of 909,000 tokens per day for 11 days, about 10 million tokens, worth roughly $20 million at the current price. This "water" is already on the way, and the market has been absorbing 2.16 million tokens daily, holding on for 11 days.
I think 9.18 is not a time bomb, but a single day that needs to digest 13 days’ worth of volume.
Liquidity absorption is more critical than the unlocking itself. If $1.93 breaks, watch $1.85. Today at $1.969, it’s only 6.3% away from that line. This is the bulls’ last face to hold on to… Has the CPI negative news been fully priced in? BTC nears 80,000, ETH surges 7%, shorts suffer heavy losses
Tonight, the core CPI exceeded expectations, and the probability of a rate hike soared to 90%. It was expected that risk assets would plunge, but the market instead triggered a short squeeze.
$BTC rose 3.25%, rallying over 3,000 points from the low of 75,866, approaching the 80,000 mark. The logic is simple: negative news is fully priced in, rate hike expectations are completely factored, and short positions are overcrowded, leading to a forced short squeeze by the main players.
$ETH on the hourly chart surged 7.49%, showing the strongest performance. It rose from 2,432 to 2,667, with RSI soaring to 83.96, indicating extreme overbought conditions. Funds are betting on the macro event landing, and short-term profit-taking could emerge at any time.
$SOL rose 5.55%, strongly breaking through the 100 mark. The SIMD-0437 proposal will activate on the Beta mainnet, combining ecological benefits with a short squeeze rally, showing strong bullish momentum.
Macro as a supplement: Core CPI month-on-month is 0.3%, with housing, airfares, and other components remaining high, but the market trades on the "expectation gap." A 90% rate hike probability means the worst-case scenario has been digested, and the data release has instead become a signal for bulls to counterattack.
Extreme overbought conditions mean market sentiment has peaked. BTC faces strong resistance at 80,000, and chasing higher carries great risk. Beware of profit-taking after "buying the expectation, selling the fact." CPI data benefits and rising rate hike expectations, why is crypto instead rising?
After last night's PPI release, the market already panicked once, with benefits released in advance.
This time, the core CPI of 0.3% was higher than the expected 0.2%, but the other data met expectations, with no worse-than-expected situation.
After the benefits landed, no new bad news appeared, short sellers took profits and closed positions, and covering positions brought a short squeeze rally, pushing the coin price up.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 $ZEC current price 1,203, 24H high, trading volume 96.11 million U. Since the 2024 low, +6,300%, and since 8/17's 494, 2.4 times in three weeks.
Three sources of funds: Grayscale privacy coin ETF AUM over 500 million USD; increased concentration of holdings (circulating supply thinning); perpetual funding rate -0.0052% — shorts are still paying, still fueling the rise.
But F2Pool's Wang Chun publicly criticized ZEC as "unworthy of its position," listing its dark history and questioning the fairness of the rise.
Last week I wrote about DASH saying to close at 75, it didn’t reach 75, today it’s 58.78. In the same week, ZEC rose from 1,015 to 1,208 — same sector, the leader and the follower differ by 39 percentage points. The narrative can only accommodate one king.
Next week on the 15th–16th is the FOMC, PPI has pushed the rate hike probability to about 70%.
I’m not chasing 1,200. I’m only waiting for two conditions: a pullback to 1,054/1,000 to stabilize, or a volume breakout above 1,298 to hold.
Is ZEC the Bitcoin of 2013, or an unworthy bubble? Do you dare chase 1,200 #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 Exploded 🚀 ETH touched around 2600 in one day
Core CPI is a bit hot but it rose first
August CPI released: overall month-on-month about 0.4%, year-on-year about 3.4%, meeting expectations; core month-on-month about 0.3% slightly hot (expected about 0.2%), year-on-year about 2.4%. The odds of a 25bp rate hike surged, with reports touching over 80%
ETH rose about just over 5% in one day, touching around 2600; Bitcoin hovered around 78700, bouncing more sluggishly. Core inflation is a bit hot and odds are rising, yet ETH can still rally about 5%, more like short covering and risk appetite returning, not the narrative of cooling inflation
Compared to Bitcoin’s more sluggish move, ETH moving first looks more like short covering. Don’t rush to change macro headlines, just first distinguish who is covering shorts and who is truly adding positions #📈 After the CPI release, Crypto collectively strengthened instead.
US August CPI month-on-month +0.4%, year-on-year 3.4%, inflation remains relatively hot, combined with the previous rise in PPI, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes continue to heat up, and US Treasury yields remain high. Reuters
But the market did not directly crash: $BTC currently at 79465, 24h +2.88%; $ETH +8.17%; $SOL +5.25%, with ETH clearly outperforming the broader market. market-overview.jsonJSON
🔥 This looks more like a "risk appetite recovery after bad news has landed" rather than macro pressure having disappeared. Short-term focus is on whether $BTC can truly hold above 80,000, and whether $ETH’s strength can continue to drive rotation among high Beta coins.
In short: data is hawkish, but prices do not fall — this divergence itself is the most noteworthy signal currently.
#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 🔥CPI stuck at 3.4%, oil price surges to 107, Fed hanging by a thread, how should BTC respond
Brothers, tonight's CPI is worth paying attention to. Inflation is stuck in place, not dropping as expected, Brent crude soars to 107, costs pushing inflation up, but consumption weakens, caught in stagflation tug-of-war.
Short term: The September 15-16 FOMC meeting is key, data neither hawkish nor dovish, huge uncertainty. The market will only spike back and forth, avoid high leverage, don’t heavily bet on one side.
Mid term: With oil prices high, don’t expect rate cuts, liquidity continues tightening, BTC will likely oscillate and wear you down, prioritize capital preservation.
Long term: High interest rates will eventually drag down the economy, wait for the Fed to be forced to ease, that’s when the big market starts, current declines are mostly shakeouts.
Three practical points:
1. Don’t heavily position before FOMC;
2. During panic sell-offs, build positions gradually, refuse to go all-in;
3. Watch oil prices closely, only when it falls below 90 will the risk asset environment improve.
Endure the macro tug-of-war to wait for the market rally.
$CL $BTC #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 How to find strong coins in a bull market?
Yesterday I mentioned that the second wave of correction is a good thing, giving you the opportunity to get on board strong coins.
In my watchlist, here are some comments on several strong coins:
1. $HYPE keeps hitting new highs, with consistent large-scale buybacks every day. Overall protocol fees have recently often fallen outside the top three money printers in the crypto space, but protocol revenue still ranks.
The current risks are fully priced in by the market and unlocking. So it’s still very good, but no longer my first choice.
2. $UNI has recently benefited from RobinHood’s boom, with income soaring. The highest single-day buyback and burn exceeded one million USD, and recent buybacks and burns have stabilized above 500,000 USD.
The biggest risk is that since the RobinHood chain, pons contributes more than half of the buyback and burn amount. Rumor has it that pons is doing swaps, which means more than half of the profits could suddenly disappear.
3. $PUMP is a coin I both love and hate. I love that the team is young, energetic, and daring to innovate. What I don’t like is their lack of transparency.
4. pons has dropped sharply these past two days, but looking at various data, it’s still very solid. The buyback and burn ratio has exceeded 30%. The new platform on sol has some impact, so there’s been a big correction these two days. But now I believe the correction is over.
5. ENA recently had four major ecosystem updates and entered stock perpetual contracts, the latter being very attractive since stocks have about 50 times the market cap of the crypto space. The market scale is larger, strongly recommend paying attention to it! Bro, take a deep breath first 🫂
I understand how you feel right now. It’s so painful to have hope just to have it crushed.
*First, the data*
`Core CPI monthly rate 0.3% > 0.2% expected`
Although it’s only 0.1% higher, against the backdrop of `oil at 111 + housing rebound`, this 0.1% has cornered the Fed.
`90% chance of rate hike` = the market has already priced in a 25bp increase. `US bonds soaring + gold coin circle under pressure` are all because of this.
I get the political logic you mentioned: `draining liquidity before the election = suicide`
But the problem is: `the Fed chair doesn’t decide, the data does`. He can’t intervene before the September 16 FOMC. At most, he’ll make statements afterward.
*Looking at your positions, I feel for you*
*$BTC long 80,619 → 77,748 floating loss 37%*
Liquidation at `69,351`
Now at `77.7K`, you’re still `8.4K` away from liquidation, about 10.8%. Breaking `76.4K` would be very dangerous.
*$HYPE 70.9 → 81.6 still recovering*
This is okay, at least you haven’t been wiped out.
*Tonight’s US market open is critical, three possible scenarios*
1. *`US stocks open low and go lower`*
Risk assets resonate. BTC might directly test `76.4K → 74K`. Your long position will be very risky.
2. *`US stocks spike then fall back`*
A rebound to short. BTC spikes to `78.5K` then drops, the most frustrating. **Core CPI 0.3% Exceeds Expectations, 90% Rate Hike Probability, Yet ETH Hits 8-Month High**
Tonight's CPI release: overall 3.4% in line with expectations, core month-on-month 0.3%, hotter than expected, with September rate hike probability briefly hitting 91%.
The moment the data dropped, BTC plunged to 76,050, gold dropped to 4,292.
Then? BTC pulled back to 77,700, ETH surged straight to 2,600, an 8-month high, up 7% in 24 hours.
My ETH long was opened at 2,415, take profit at 2,600, hit tonight. Risked 1.5U for 13U, 5:1 odds, the script didn’t change a bit.
Why did crypto rise despite hot data?
1. The bad news is fully priced in. With rate hike odds at 90%, those who needed to exit already did.
2. Money is rotating. BTC ETFs see continuous outflows, ETH ETFs are attracting funds, capital moving from the leader to the runner-up.
3. Core year-on-year actually dropped from 2.5% to 2.4%, inflation trend is still downward.
Next week's FOMC rate hike is basically set in stone, but the market buys the expectation and sells the reality—when it actually happens, it might be the short-term bad news fully priced in.
Don’t chase highs now, hold your spot positions, wait for the next odds on contracts.
Only those who survive this data week are qualified to enjoy the bull market gains.
---
Also, check OKX: ETH surged to 2,600 at 21:56, your take profit order likely executed automatically, pocketing 13U. Once this trade is done, it’s a clean slate—don’t chase longs, no new positions before next week’s FOMC.📊 Tonight's CPI could be the key to BTC's short-term direction!
Based on current energy prices and inflation data, I believe the probability of the US August CPI year-over-year exceeding expectations is rising.
① Oil price is the biggest variable
Crude oil prices rebounded significantly in August, and the rise in energy costs may push the overall CPI reading higher again. The linkage between oil prices and inflation remains a key focus.
② PPI has already signaled
US August PPI year-over-year reached 5.4%, significantly above market expectations, and some PCE-related components are also strong, indicating a risk of CPI exceeding expectations tonight.
③ My probability assessment
🔺 CPI > 3.4%: about 55%
➡️ CPI = 3.4%: about 30%
🔻 CPI < 3.4%: about 15%
If CPI remains hot, rate cut expectations may cool further, and BTC could face short-term pressure; conversely, if the data is significantly below expectations, the market may reprice easing expectations.
Focus on CPI tonight; it is not recommended to blindly chase gains or sell before the data release.
#PPIAboveExpectations #TonightCPISetDirection #BTC #BitcoinAlert! The 10-year U.S. Treasury is approaching 5%, $BTC Short-term pressure but long-term logic has changed
The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.95%, just one step away from the 5% mark. The short-term logic is clear: rising funding costs have made BTC a non-interest-bearing asset, directly weakening its appeal.
The probability of a rate hike has risen to 70%, risk appetite continues to cool, and BTC spot funds are seeing outflows. If tonight's CPI data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin is likely to continue declining in the short term, testing support near 75,000.
But there is a long-term contradiction hidden here. The risk of debt monetization is magnifying. If the 5% high yield fails to attract enough long-term capital to take over U.S. Treasuries, the Fed and Treasury will have to step in to cover the gap.
Continued bottom-line protection means accelerated depletion of US dollar credit. BTC's value narrative as a non-sovereign asset will be reinforced within this macro chain. In the short term, interest rate suppression is seen as a trend; in the long term, debt problems are foreshadowed. #美国CPI环比加速, expectations of interest rate hikes are heating up Tonight's CPI data came out, with core CPI month-over-month at 0.3%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 0.2%. That tiny bit directly ignited rate hike expectations — now the market prices in a 79% probability of a 25 basis point hike in September.
---
Oil prices broke 100, ships in the Red Sea dare not sail, and energy inflation is simply uncontrollable. Although core inflation is trending down year-over-year, month-over-month it just won't come down, and the Federal Reserve can't find a reason to turn dovish.
For the crypto space, the key is next week's FOMC meeting. The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering around 4.8%, with real rates approaching 5%. Holding interest-free assets like Bitcoin has a very high opportunity cost.
Interestingly, after the CPI release, BTC dropped to around 76,000 but was bought back, now bouncing back above 78,000. ETH also rose from 2,433 to 2,510. The fact that bad news didn't cause a drop indicates bears are struggling around 76,000.
---
My positions also took a hit today: $BTC $ETH $ZEC
$BTC: Long positions remain. Previously smashed from 79,718 to around 77,000, now rebounding above 78,000, reducing unrealized losses significantly. Holding on to wait for next week's FOMC direction.
$ETH: Long opened at 2,493, earlier dipped to 2,433 almost stopped me out, now back near 2,500, basically breakeven.
$DOGE: This dog fell the hardest today, once smashed to 0.083, breaking the 200-day moving average at 0.088. My long at 0.0874 got hammered badly, now just hoping it holds above 0.08.
$ZEC: The only cover for my account, bought at 1,154 and still in the green.
A few words: The CPI data is neither clearly good nor bad, but the market has priced in a 79% chance of a rate hike. Expect volatility until next week's FOMC. BTC support around 76,000-76,500 seems effective for now, but whether it can hold through the meeting is uncertain. I'll hold my longs for now, no more fussing, waiting for the Fed's answer next week.
#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 The market logic is just now changing: although the CPI is somewhat high, the overall CPI year-on-year at 3.4% basically meets expectations, and there is no real "explosion" in the true sense. More importantly, the US stock market also rebounded after the CPI release, indicating that the market has started to trade on "bad news being priced in" rather than continuing to trade on "inflation out of control."
I believe this sudden surge in crypto is mainly due to three reasons:
① CPI bad news being priced in, shorts starting to cover.
Previously, BTC had already fallen continuously due to PPI, oil prices, and interest rate hike expectations, accumulating many short positions in the market. Since the CPI did not worsen further, it easily triggered short stop-losses.
② The "interest rate hike" expectation has already been priced in ahead of time.
Currently, the market's probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike has surged to over 80%—90%, which means part of the bad news is already reflected in the price.
③ Most importantly: a short squeeze may be happening.
Yesterday, BTC once dropped near 76,000, and the market had already seen large-scale leveraged liquidations. At this point, a sudden upward breakout in price can easily form a chain reaction of "rising → short stop-loss → continued rise." Previous data shows that daily crypto liquidation scale has reached hundreds of millions of dollars.
However, I will not directly judge this as a reversal now.
What really needs to be watched tonight is whether this surge can hold.
If Bitcoin can break through and hold the 78,000—80,000 range, and Ethereum follows the rise instead of lagging significantly, then this is not just a simple spike rebound; the short structure may be breaking down. CPI negative factors fully priced in trigger a surge: $BTC rallies 2700 points, $ETH surges 6.44%, short squeeze wave hits!
On September 11, the US August CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, meeting expectations, and core CPI fell to 2.4%. After the data release, the market instantly exploded! BTC violently surged from a low of 76001 to 78730, a rally of over 2700 points, currently at 78700; ETH was even more aggressive, rising straight from 2426 to 2598, a surge of 6.44%, more than three times BTC's increase!
Analysis suggests that CPI fully met expectations and core CPI declined rather than rose. The market had been overly pessimistic due to PPI exceeding expectations. After CPI was released, negative factors were fully priced in, and bulls frantically covered. A large number of shorts betting on CPI exceeding expectations were instantly crushed, forcing contract shorts to cover, resulting in a brutal short squeeze. ETH, with higher leverage and greater elasticity, saw an even more remarkable increase.
In terms of capital distribution, BTC funding rates quickly turned positive from negative, with short liquidations concentrated between 77000-78000; ETH funding rates turned positive to a greater extent. The next BTC target is 79000-80000 with support at 77600; ETH's next target is 2650-2700 with support at 2500.
#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 📊 BTC dominance tells me when it's worth looking at altcoins.
At the beginning of a market recovery, capital usually flows into Bitcoin first.
👉 BTC dominance rises
👉 Altcoins continue to bleed relative to BTC
👉 Even with good narratives, many altcoins still can't outperform BTC
The real window worth paying attention to often appears when:
Bitcoin starts to stabilize + BTC dominance begins to decline 🔄
This usually means capital is gradually spreading from low-risk assets along the risk curve toward altcoins.
I used to make this mistake:
Holding altcoins stubbornly while BTC dominance kept rising, only to find their USD prices falling and their performance relative to BTC worsening.
Now my approach has changed:
Let Bitcoin lead first.
Don't rush rotation.
Wait for capital to truly flow into altcoins. 🚀
📌 First watch BTC, then Dominance, and finally Alts.
Do you think the current market is close to the altcoin rotation window?👇
#BTC #Bitcoin #BTCDominance #Altcoins #山寨币 #加密货币 #Crypto #OKX #市场分析 #资金轮动 #牛市 August CPI is out, overall in line with expectations, but the core monthly rate is slightly higher than expected.
Overall year-on-year is still 3.4%, month-on-month up 0.4%, mainly driven by gasoline prices rising 3.9%. Core year-on-year dropped from 2.5% to 2.4%, showing a cooling trend annually; but core month-on-month is 0.3%, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, with housing, airfares, and communications all rising. This means the annual trend is downward, but the monthly momentum has rebounded.
Once the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September surged directly to 91.6%, then fell back to around 85%. The US dollar index shot up and then dropped, and the market is also conflicted.
But interestingly, Bitcoin did not fall. On the platform, BTC rose from 76,400 to 78,000, and XAUT also increased to 4390. With the rate hike probability at 90%, risk assets are actually rising, indicating the market is not trading tightening in a one-sided manner.
Now the debate has shifted: will energy and production costs continue to transmit to the service side, forcing the Fed to act on September 16; or is the core year-on-year decline enough for the Fed to wait and see.
Regarding $BTC, tonight’s movement suggests the market has somewhat desensitized to the "rate hike" issue—despite a 90% probability of a drop, BTC did not break down but instead bounced. In the short term, it depends on how the FOMC decision on September 16 lands; if the expectation is for the "last rate hike," BTC might actually see this as positive. Let's hold and watch. #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 $ETH lets you look at the data, watch the interest rate hikes, and aggressively short. This time, you should have learned your lesson from getting hit, right? $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% #BTC现货ETF连续流出 Will there be a rate hike in September? After the CPI release, the answer is becoming increasingly clear:
The market now expects about a 90% chance of a rate hike in September.
Even more striking, the market fully anticipates that the Federal Reserve will raise rates once more before the end of the year.
This is definitely not a comfortable macro environment for Bitcoin in the short term.
Because the rising rate hike expectations mean continued pressure for the US dollar and US Treasury yields to strengthen, valuations of risk assets will also be suppressed.
But I think the market has already priced in so much of these rate hike expectations in advance; when it actually happens, how much expectation gap will remain?
If the US dollar and Treasury yields continue to rise, Bitcoin will face more obvious pressure.
But if the rate hike expectations are fully priced in and subsequent data does not worsen, the market might actually see a correction in expectations.
So the biggest mistake now is to simply interpret a 90% rate hike probability as Bitcoin definitely having to fall.
The market never trades the news itself,
but the difference between the news and expectations.After the CPI is released, the real danger is not a crash, but a "re-pricing of direction"
US August CPI released: year-on-year 3.4%, month-on-month 0.4%; core CPI year-on-year 2.4%, month-on-month 0.3%. On the surface, the overall CPI meets expectations, but the core month-on-month is stronger than before. Coupled with yesterday's stronger-than-expected PPI, market expectations for a Fed rate hike next week have clearly heated up.
For the crypto market, this combination is short-term bearish. The dollar and short-term US Treasury yields are supported, liquidity expectations tighten, which is unfavorable for the valuations of both Bitcoin and altcoins.
But here is a key point: the CPI did not seriously exceed expectations, so I will not define it as a "trend crash signal" for now. What really needs to be observed is the price structure after the CPI.
For $BTC, the focus is on whether the previous low can hold. If it breaks below the previous low and the rebound fails, the bearish structure will be further confirmed; if it quickly recovers, beware of "bad news being priced in."
$ETH is relatively weaker than Bitcoin, so be especially cautious. If the rebound cannot break through key resistance, it is better to wait for structural confirmation rather than bottom-fishing just because it has fallen a lot.
My judgment: don't try to guess the bottom tonight. The first wave of volatility after the CPI often sweeps out stops. What is really worth doing is waiting for a break → rebound → confirmation. The current macro environment does not support aggressive buying for now; defense first, wait for the structure to give the answer.Tonight's CPI looks okay on the surface, but a closer look is a bit painful.
The overall US August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, both in line with expectations. The problem lies in the core CPI, which increased 0.3% month-over-month, higher than the market's expected 0.2%.
Just an extra 0.1 percentage point, but the market reaction was far from small.
Last night, the PPI was already on the hot side, and tonight the core CPI didn't bring any surprises. The probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in September has already been pushed above 80%.
Wow, BTC was waiting for an $80,000 breakthrough a few days ago, now it has to consider whether it can hold between $76,000 and $77,000 first.
However, this data isn't bad enough to be out of control.
The overall CPI didn't exceed expectations, and the US stock market didn't panic sell immediately, indicating the market hasn't yet treated this as a new round of runaway inflation.
So now, when I look at BTC, I'm actually paying more attention to one detail.
After such hawkish data comes out, if it can still hold near $76,000, that means quite a few negative factors have already been priced in.
But if it can't even hold here, then what the market will trade next won't just be tonight's CPI.
It will be the Fed actually raising rates next week.The data is out, more "lukewarm" than expected 😮💨
`Year-on-year 3.4% steady` + `Core 2.4% new low` = No loss of control
`Month-on-month 0.4%` + `Core 0.3% > 0.2% expected` = No cooling down
Just like you said: `Stuck in the middle, the hardest to trade`
*CPI breakdown 1-minute version*
**Data** **Result** **Impact on crypto**
**CPI YoY 3.4%** = steady in July No new story. Market doesn't care
**Core YoY 2.4%** `Lowest since March 2021` Good news. Trend still intact
**CPI MoM 0.4%** > expectation Bad news. Oil at peak
**Core MoM 0.3%** > 0.2% expected Bad news. Housing rebounds
**Gasoline +3.9%** Contributes 1/3 of increase Cost side pressure
**Housing 0.1%→0.3%** Rebound Fed's biggest headache
Conclusion: `Inflation stickiness`. `Oil price 111 + housing rebound` ate up the credit for `core decline`
*Why BTC is pressured at 77,000*
Because of your last sentence: `Real interest rate close to 5%`
1. *`PPI slightly hot + CPI MoM slightly hot`* = `September 25bp probability ~70%` nailed down
2. *`US Treasury yield to hit 5%`* = Risk-free return too high. `No-yield Bitcoin` opportunity cost soars
3. *`#BTC spot ETF continuousI’ve been a big proponent of buying $ZEC since everyone was bearish on it at $400.
But at some stage, this chart is going to mean revert the euphoria, just as it has during every monster rally before it.
Price is now reaching the same kind of extreme deviation from its cycle mean that preceded those previous reversions.
That doesn’t mean the move has to end today.
It means the risk has completely changed, and at some stage, price will revert back toward its accep$BTC #USCPIReignitesHikeOddsBrothers, the core issue in tonight's late session is whether the recovery after the CPI release can continue.
From the recent price action, $BTC quickly pulled back to around 77,900, and $ETH climbed back above 2,500 with increased volume. This indicates the market is not continuing to panic over the data; it looks more like short covering and buying support after the news settled.
But tonight, don't blindly chase the rally. The previous market pressure logic still holds: oil prices remain high, U.S. Treasury yields are close to 5%, and the market remains cautious about Fed policy. These factors still weigh on U.S. stocks, especially tech stocks, and the crypto market.
So tonight, I lean more towards "recover first, then watch how U.S. stocks hold up."
If after the U.S. market opens, the Nasdaq stabilizes and yields and oil prices continue to fall, then BTC and ETH have a chance to extend this recovery, and ETH holding above 2,500 will clearly boost market sentiment.
But if U.S. stocks rally then fall back, or oil prices and Treasury yields strengthen again, crypto could also see a pullback or volatile consolidation.
My honest view: I’m not bearish for now tonight, but I also don’t recommend chasing the rally. The key now is whether the rally can hold; true strength is in holding sideways, not just a big green candle after the CPI release signaling a complete market reversal.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 USDT is undergoing a change more important than just "how much the market cap has grown."
Tether and Fasanara have jointly launched StableFund, initially investing $400 million together, with plans to attract up to $3 billion from third-party institutional capital.
The funds are not for trading cryptocurrencies but will be directed into short-duration, asset-backed private credit, covering SME, supply chain, and consumer financing through fintech networks in over 60 countries.
The key change is that stablecoin competition is shifting from issuance scale to who can truly embed on-chain dollars into the credit system.
However, it is important to distinguish between facts and goals: the $3 billion is currently just a fundraising cap and does not represent a $3 billion institutional commitment.
The most important validation going forward will be the actual subscription scale from third-party institutions, the real loan disbursement volume, and whether these businesses generate sustained USDT settlement demand.Tomorrow night’s CPI, what $ETH fears most is not ugly numbers, but the expectation of rising interest rates again
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule, the August CPI will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on September 11. Today is the day before the data, and $ETH is consolidating around $2470, appearing calm, but in fact, a large number of short-term positions are waiting for the same answer.
CPI affects $ETH not because a price statistic will change Ethereum’s code, but because it may change the market’s judgment on interest rates, the dollar, and funding costs. Moderate inflation may give risk assets a breather; stronger inflation may bring back pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
But the data’s level cannot be separated from expectations. If the market has already priced in cooling inflation, a result that meets expectations may not bring sustained buying. Conversely, if positions are overly pessimistic, as long as the data is not as bad as imagined, it may trigger short covering.
What’s really worth watching is the price performance from half an hour to several hours after the release. The first candlestick may just be driven by algorithms and stop-losses; whether the new trading range holds indicates whether funds are willing to continue betting.
Being bullish on $ETH in the long term does not mean betting on the direction before every data release. Knowing what you are waiting for is more important than rushing to guess a number.Recently, $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC have pulled back from their phase highs, and the previously pressured bearish sentiment has finally encountered a relatively smooth window. 🌿 This round of decline is not driven by a single factor; market sentiment has been cautious, and at this time, Trump has once again proposed a grand idea: if he wins the midterm elections this year, he will consider issuing a "Trump bonus" of $5,000 to every American adult, with a total scale possibly exceeding $1 trillion. Once the news broke, some participants immediately interpreted it as a potential positive, and with the election approaching, this imagination has been amplified.
However, there is often a long legislative and fiscal struggle between vision and implementation. The real question to ask is: if such a scale of fiscal stimulus is truly advanced, will inflation pressure, national debt expansion, and U.S. Treasury yield increases be reignited? These questions currently have no answers, and the idea remains at the statement stage. For traders, short positions can continue to be held and observed, while policy narratives are better watched before acting, with no need to rush to price in sentiment. Maintaining patience and restraint is often more prudent than chasing news.
Risk warning: The above is only personal market observation and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously.#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温
The key driver behind the CPI increase is actually communication?
🏠 Housing has the largest weight, month-on-month +0.3%
- Rent and owner equivalent rent slightly increased, hotel accommodation rebounded +2.4% in August after a big drop in July
📱 Communication category month-on-month +2.3%, wireless telephone service surged 5.4-5.9%
- US carriers collectively canceled unlimited data plans for old users, which is a one-time statistical pulse, not a sustained price increase, just filling the 0.1% gap with actual data!
⚠️ This explains why the data seems bearish but crypto is rising!
✈️ Airfare +2.7%, education slightly up, used cars and new cars moderately rising
Hedges: healthcare -0.2%, motor vehicle insurance -0.8%, offsetting some of the increases
Got it, everything is clear now, no wonder the market keeps rising.
However, the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 90%, the rate hike is a known event and has already been priced in.
The key question is: how many times will the Fed raise rates?
If only once, it won’t cause much bearish impact on the market; if twice, the market reaction will be greater...
Even though the market generally rises, $SNDK is falling, as rate hikes are unfavorable for high-valuation growth stocks...
$BTC $ETH $BTC bull market is getting tougher again... The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%
#10-year US Treasury yield approaching 5% threshold, repo operations fail to stop yield rise
The US 10-year Treasury yield once surged to around 4.96%, just shy of 5%. What's more awkward is that the US Treasury just expanded bond repurchase operations; the market originally expected this to ease long-term bond pressure, but yields still climbed.
Wow, even with money pulled out for repurchases, the bond market still isn't buying it.
The reason isn't complicated.
High oil prices and renewed inflation concerns have raised market expectations for Fed rate hikes again. Coupled with the US fiscal deficit and long-term debt issuance pressure, it's not easy for long-term yields to come down.
This is actually quite critical for the crypto space.
Once the 10-year US Treasury yield really breaks above 5%, the risk-free rate becomes increasingly attractive, and capital will be less eager to chase high-volatility assets like $BTC and $ETH. Especially altcoins, which rely on risk appetite; the higher the rates, the tougher it gets.
So recently, BTC has been hovering around 77,000, and I think we can't just look at the candlesticks.
If the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to push above 5%, it will be even harder for BTC to reclaim $80,000.
What the market is really waiting for now is when the yield will finally take a breather.The entire network is trembling, fixated on the soaring probability of a rate hike, yet the market not only didn't collapse but surged upward, producing a large bullish candlestick, leaving countless macro-logic-based short sellers dumbfounded.
Financial markets always specialize in defying consensus. From the PPI shock to the ECB rate hike, the rate hike expectations were already fully priced in by various institutions days ago. The entire network's risk-off sentiment has been pushed to the extreme, and the short-selling lane is completely congested. Market makers love such crowded opposing positions; as long as the negative news doesn't break through the core, even a slight influx of buying, forced liquidations of high-leverage shorts instantly become the most lucrative fuel for the main force to violently squeeze shorts upward.
The deeper expectation gap lies in that this rate hike expectation is entirely driven by secondary inflation pushed by crude oil. Wall Street knows very well that, under political pressure from the White House and massive national debt interest, the Fed faces enormous resistance to actually raising rates; this is just a paper tiger in sentiment. Instead, stubborn inflation has made big money recognize the reality of fiat currency depreciation, and scarce hard assets have instead attracted safe-haven buying.
Looking at this abnormal large bullish candlestick, my current positions are held with both surprise and anxiety. If this is just the main force inducing a short squeeze to lure buying, and if the Fed really dares to strike hard next week, chasing higher will definitely get stuck halfway up the mountain. But if this stampede-style short covering completely reverses liquidity, not entering now will most likely mean watching the market leave far behind later.
The market never plays by the rules. Tonight's rebound—were you forced to liquidate by a short squeeze, or have you been lying in wait all along?
#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 Altcoin leverage surpasses BTC, liquidation alarms ringing again?
Coinalyze monitoring shows that on September 6, the open interest of altcoin perpetual contracts exceeded BTC for the first time in 21 months. BTC perpetual contracts stand at about $23.9 billion, accounting for 37% of the total market, with ETH, SOL, XRP, ZEC, and others sharing the remaining portion. ZEC open interest rose to about $2.4 billion; when it broke the $1,000 mark, approximately $34 million in short positions were liquidated.
A similar structure was last seen in December 2024, after which a batch of mid-cap tokens quickly plunged, while BTC was relatively resilient. An increase in open interest only indicates higher leverage and participation, and does not directly point to bullish or bearish sentiment.
Market overview: BTC around $77,174, down 1.4%, with $77,000 as a short-term support line; ETH around $2,437, with $2,400 as a key support; SOL about $99.98, down 1.56%, but daily on-chain application revenue of $5.09 million ranks first among public chains, showing a divergence between price and fundamentals. ZEC around $1,218, TD9 sell signal and four-hour bearish divergence suggest a pullback. Oil prices broke $108, inflation concerns suppress risk appetite. More leverage is concentrated in altcoins—is this a return of risk appetite or a precursor to a chain of liquidations?
#山寨永续未平仓量21个月来首次超过BTC $ETH Wow, just finished watching BTC and then switched to ETH, the surge is really fierce. BTC only rose 2%, while ETH soared 6.27%, shooting up to around 2,600 in one go, with an intraday swing of nearly $200.
Why is ETH rising more aggressively than BTC? The core reasons are catch-up demand plus a short squeeze.
First, capital overflow. After BTC found a bottom and rebounded at 76,000 and stabilized, the resistance at 80,000 is too strong, so funds simply went to targets with greater elasticity. ETH had been weaker than BTC previously, so its valuation cost-effectiveness emerged, making it the outlet for funds tonight.
Second, shorts got bloodied. There was a large accumulation of leveraged short positions around 2,400-2,450. After the CPI data was released and the negative news was fully priced in, once the price broke through the key resistance at 2,500, shorts directly panicked and liquidated, forcibly pushing the price up to 2,600.
Third, structural preference of ETF funds. In recent days, BTC ETFs have been continuously bleeding, but ETH not only saw inflows into spot ETFs, BlackRock’s staking products are also attracting capital, showing a clear rise in institutional preference for ETH.
Technically, this big bullish candle pierced through the upper Bollinger Band, all moving averages are diverging upwards, a classic short squeeze scenario. Watch if the 2,600 round number can hold above; support below has moved up to 2,530 and 2,480.
Chasing highs at this level carries huge risk; holders with spot positions should hold, and those without positions should wait for a pullback.
#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 Tonight's CPI is released, and I'll be straightforward: I'm bullish in the short term. Three reasons, all reflected in tonight's market. First, the annual rate at 3.4% meets expectations, and the core annual rate at 2.4% hits a new low since April 2021 — the market's biggest fear of a "surprise spike" didn't happen, meaning the worst is over rather than the best being over; second, Nasdaq futures jumped from -0.6% straight up to +0.78%, showing that US stocks are voting with their feet, risk appetite is back, and BTC following the rally is natural; third, BTC pulled back from 76,500 to 77,800, and the triple support at 76,400/76,270/76,204 I repeatedly mentioned yesterday held firm, the bears' blitz attack didn't break through — the bulls are really defending this level. But a word of caution upfront: being bullish doesn't mean reckless charging. BTC faces two hurdles above at 78,500 and 80,000, and ETH has a hard ceiling at 2,536.88, all formed by trapped positions, so it's normal that a breakthrough doesn't happen easily. My rhythm is clear; before BTC firmly holds 78,500, the 77,000–78,500 range will be volatile, either hold steady or trade within the range, both better than chasing highs and lows; only after volume breaks above 78,500 do we talk about 80,000. As for ETH, holding 2,500 is just the first step, $BTC must pass 2,536.88 to call it a reversal. Lastly, a reminder: the core monthly rate 0.3% is still a thorn in the flesh, the FOMC (15-16th) is the final judge — passing the CPI is just the prelude, next week is the real test, don't mistake the rebound for a bull market. $ETH $BTC CPI has landed.
The US August CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, month-on-month 0.4%, both in line with expectations. But the core CPI month-on-month is 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, marking the largest single-month increase since April. After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September surged to 90%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield approached 4.957%.
Why did BTC rally despite the hawkish data?
The core reason is that the bad news was fully priced in and short sellers covered their positions. The market had already fallen for several days before the data release, dropping from 82,000 down to around 76,000; the hawkish scenario had long been priced in. When the price briefly dipped to 76,000 but failed to break down effectively, short sellers realized their expectations were wrong and had to close positions by buying back, which amplified the rebound.
Another interesting data point — in the week ending September 5, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $986.9 million, with institutions continuously buying during the decline. Tonight's rebound is supported by passive ETF buying.
Key levels: 78,800 is tonight's high, with 79,000-79,500 as the first resistance zone above. On the downside, 77,000-77,500 has become short-term support. However, with the rate hike probability hitting 90% and the market fully pricing in two hikes by year-end, the sustainability of this rebound depends on next week's FOMC meeting.
One bullish candle doesn't change the rate hike pressure, don't get carried away.
#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% The US August CPI has once again poured cold water on the market!
The latest data shows that the US August CPI rose by 0.396% month-on-month, basically corresponding to 0.4%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 0.39%; more notably, the core CPI rose by 0.290% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.22%, and also higher than July's 0.215%.
Although the year-on-year data is still cooling down, with the CPI year-on-year increase at 3.397%, and the core CPI falling from 2.478% in July to 2.446%, the problem lies in the fact that the inflation decline process is not smooth.
Rising energy prices and escalating geopolitical risks have added new variables to future inflation.
This means that the Federal Reserve's desire to quickly shift to easing may be becoming more difficult.
For risk assets like BTC and ETH, what really needs to be watched is not a single CPI exceeding expectations, but the market beginning to reprice "how fast rate cuts can still come." What will the funds choose next? $BTC $ETH #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 Core month-on-month quietly exceeded expectations, which is tougher between BTC and ETH
#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温
Everyone is watching the year-on-year, but the real pain is in the month-on-month — this time it exceeded expectations, perfectly revealing which of BTC and ETH has a stronger backbone.
Core CPI month-on-month at 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, the highest in 5 months, the pace of inflation easing has paused, and next week's rate hike uncertainty is back on the table. This marginal tightening best tests who truly has solid support underneath.
$BTC is the barometer; with hawkish data and a rising dollar, it bears the brunt first. Coupled with continuous net outflows from spot ETFs, 77,000 is more supported by sentiment; if it really drops, the first support to watch is 76,000. $ETH is different, with funds continuously flowing in against the trend to support it; between 2,400 and 2,460 there is real money backing it. When hawkish, it falls less and retraces shallower, standing firm even when hit.
If the market continues to digest this blow overnight, BTC will be more volatile and test 76,000 first, ETH will follow but with a shallower drop; if risk sentiment recovers, BTC will have greater elasticity, leading the rally, and ETH will steadily follow. For stability, hold the tougher ETH as your base position, and use a small position in BTC to speculate on volatility—don’t get it reversed. I’ve been a big proponent of buying $ZEC since everyone was bearish on it at $400.
But at some stage, this chart is going to mean revert the euphoria, just as it has during every monster rally before it.
Price is now reaching the same kind of extreme deviation from its cycle mean that preceded those previous reversions.
That doesn’t mean the move has to end today.
It means the risk has completely changed, and at some stage, price will revert back toward its accep$BTC #USCPIReignitesHikeOdds STONK This surge is not about #Meme, but the bet on whether "Meme can be paired with stocks." StonkFun's job is simple: let the coins you issue have a pool option of SPYx (a tokenized version of the S&P 500), instead of #SOL or #USDC.
Official backing from Solana, whales buying with real money, market cap surged from 100 million to 280 million in five days. But #STONK's 30-day protocol fees are only 1.23 million USD, less than #PONS's daily revenue. The narrative is ahead of the fundamentals. Is this the pricing of a new track, or just another wave of FOMO?Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, pushing the rate hike probability directly to about 88%.
The just-released August CPI: overall year-over-year 3.4%, month-over-month 0.4%, both meeting expectations.
But the core month-over-month at 0.3% is hotter than the expected 0.2%; core year-over-year at 2.4% barely meets the line.
CME rate hike probability rose from about 67% to about 88%; BTC flash crashed roughly $1,000, then quickly pulled back above 77,000.
I don't think this is crash data, but it's enough for next week's FOMC to treat a rate hike as the baseline scenario.
PPI is hot, oil prices remain high, and with an additional layer of hot core inflation, don't mistake the flash crash as a bottoming signal.
Short-term light positions and wait-and-see; invalidation conditions are if the Fed clearly holds steady next week or crypto volume breaks and holds above previous highs.
Are you waiting for the September 16 decision first, or do you think you can pick up after the crash?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#USCPI MoM acceleration, rate hike expectations heating up
#BTC spot ETF continuous outflows#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温
CPI is clearly negative news, so why is everything soaring?
The US August CPI year-over-year is 3.4%, core CPI 2.4%, the overall figures exactly match previous values and expectations, neither dropping nor exceeding. Logically, with inflation not cooling and the rate hike probability hitting 90%, risk assets should be crashing.
So what happened? $BTC jumped directly from 76,400 to 78,400, $ETH surged from 2405 to 2588, up nearly 6%, and gold also returned to 4390. As a short seller, I’m scratching my head watching the market.
After reviewing the logic, I realized the market isn’t trading inflation but rather the "negative news landing." Core CPI year-over-year fell from 2.5% to 2.4%, indicating inflation hasn’t significantly cooled but at least hasn’t worsened. Shorts were heavily pressed before; once the data came out without exceeding expectations, shorts collectively covered, pushing prices up.
In short, this surge isn’t due to good news but the absence of bad news. Shorts held their breath for so long, and what came wasn’t the last straw but a "so-so" result. In this market, betting on a single direction is easily swept from both sides. The "neutrality" of Ethereum is being brought to the forefront.
Wang Chun responds to the lawsuit:
If Stakefish is required to recover the stolen ETH rewards,
it means validators would be filtering which transactions to execute based on off-chain claims.
Here’s the problem:
If stolen funds can be recovered today,
could court orders to freeze assets also be enforced tomorrow?
Where exactly should the boundaries of decentralization lie? The market is rapidly repricing the interest rate path. Currently, traders' expectations for another Fed rate hike have risen to about 66%, a clear increase compared to before. On the surface, this is clearly not good news for the crypto market, but what really matters is not whether a rate hike will ultimately occur, but how the changes in expectations themselves are affecting capital behavior. 📉 If the probability of rate hikes continues to rise: → US Treasury yields may continue to rise → dollar liquidity is under pressure → risk asset risk aversion is heating → $BTC and altcoin volatility is expanding. However, the market always trades on expectations, not the outcome itself. If subsequent data begins to ease inflationary pressures or rate hike expectations quickly fall at high levels, previously suppressed risk assets may also experience a reverse recovery. ₿ $BTC Currently focusing on the $76.5K–$81K range. Breaking below the lower boundary signals risk release; Stabilizing above the upper boundary may indicate that the market is digesting the interest rate shock. 🔥 The key next week is not guessing the Fed, but observing whether interest rate expectations + USD + BTC flows resonate. Look at the changes in expectations first, then look at price confirmation #DailyOrbit #BTC #Bitcoin #Fed #Crypto #InterestRates