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$BTC Bitcoin is so exciting tonight, I almost thought it was going to go north.
I almost hit my stop loss, but luckily I added margin, and it reversed directly. This wave should be trending now.
Tonight closes the monthly candle. If it falls further now, the trend definitely can't be reversed. Bitcoin is now watching the 82500 level below.
As long as it breaks this level, it will cascade down, possibly reaching around 80000. Most likely it won't hold. Looking at the weekly chart, 80k has little support, long term looking at 78000.
$ETH Ethereum is weaker compared to Bitcoin tonight, it didn't even break 2750.
This indicates that Ethereum might fall more in this downturn, expected to possibly break below 2500.
2500, as last month's monthly high, should provide some short-term support. A sharp drop might directly sweep down to 2350 The market is splitting its attention between $BTC and $SOL.
$BTC is sitting around $84K, moving within a consolidation range, while $SOL trades near $121–122 and continues to show relative strength.
➤ $BTC: ~$84K
➤ $SOL: ~$121–122
➤ $SOL-linked U.S. spot ETFs: ~$188M in recent 5-session inflows
Bitcoin is waiting for a catalyst. Solana is building momentum. What matters next is whether that momentum expands or $BTC finally breaks out of its range.The results are out!
ADP exceeded expectations by 30,000, and what BTC really needs to guard against is this capital transmission chain!
US September ADP new jobs increased by 90,000, expected 70,000, previous value 38,000.
What truly affects BTC is not the "extra 30,000 jobs," but how the market will reprice the Federal Reserve.
Stronger-than-expected employment → market worries about inflation and economic resilience → rate cut expectations cool down → US Treasury yields rise → US dollar strengthens → US dollar liquidity tightens → BTC risk premium is compressed.
Once this chain starts, the first to be affected are often highly leveraged funds.
BTC price weakens → longs stop loss → perpetual contracts forced liquidation → contract selling pressure increases → market makers hedge by selling spot → spot continues to be under pressure → more longs are forced to exit.
So the real danger of ADP is not the data itself, but whether it can trigger the "interest rate + dollar + leverage" triple resonance.
But ADP is only private employment data and cannot be directly equated with Friday's non-farm payrolls. Last night, I went downstairs to throw out the trash and ran into Old Zhao squatting there smoking. He said he recently bought some $BTC again. I smiled and said I don't understand this stuff. But when I got home, I couldn't resist. I downloaded an app and fiddled with it until midnight. After buying that night, I woke up three times. My phone was by my pillow. Whenever it lit up, I reached for it to check. When it went up a bit, I felt I was doing okay. When it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being careless. My wife asked if I was feeling unwell. I said I was fine, just light-sleeping. Later, I saw people talking about $ETH, so I followed with a small amount. After fees, I stared blankly at the screen. I traded back and forth a few times. The money didn't increase, but I got exhausted first. Once it dropped, I was stubborn and added a bit more. After adding, it kept dropping. I sat on the balcony smoking half a pack. The kid called me to build blocks, but I wasn't in the mood. During that time, I didn't enjoy meals and was irritable. Later, I deleted the app, then reinstalled it, then deleted it again, and repeated this several times before I realized I was too impatient, always wanting to get rich quick. Now I only have a little $SOL left. When it rises, I don't shout; when it falls, I don't sell. I watch the order posts in the group as entertainment. When people urge me to rush in, I say wait a bit longer. No borrowing money, no going all in, no touching what I don't understand. Being able to sleep soundly is more important than making quick money. Profits are luck; losses are tuition. This business is for fun, not fate. These words of mine are all bought with real money and silver.#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 $BTC formed a gate pattern, this roller coaster ride is a bit dizzying
Tonight's market action is really exciting
First, there was a sharp rally to 85650, but it couldn't hold, and then a big bearish candle smashed it back down near 82900
Now it's slowly climbing back to around 83880
A typical pattern of a surge, pullback, and then recovery, with both bulls and bears getting swept back and forth
Here are a few key signals:
First, 85650 above has become a short-term strong resistance. That high-volume big bearish candle indicates heavy selling pressure at the top, making it quite difficult to push higher in the short term
Second, the moving averages are a bit messy now. MA5 is around 83869, MA10 and MA20 are pressing down near 84400, and MA30 is flattening near 83900. The price is squeezed between the moving averages, so the short-term direction is unclear
Third, volume has clearly increased. The 24-hour trading volume surged to over 8600 BTC, much more active than the previous low-volume consolidation, indicating real capital rotation in this up-and-down sweep
On the downside, watch if the recently smashed low at 82900-83000 can hold; on the upside, the first resistance during the rebound is the dense moving average zone at 84400-84500
After such big volatility, it usually takes time to reorganize, so don't rush to chase the highs or sell the lows.