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🚨 The crypto market is experiencing a split trend! What truly matters is not just the price swings, but who is attracting the capital.
On the surface, BTC, ETH, and SOL show little volatility, but the internal capital logic of the market has changed. Some are betting on long-term value, while others just want to seize short-term opportunities. Who can outperform the market next may hinge on the rhythm of capital rotation.
🔥 $BTC: The long-term story is becoming more complete, but short-term challenges remain
The integration of traditional finance and crypto markets is still progressing, and the development of compliant trading infrastructure offers new possibilities for BTC's long-term market positioning. However, note that positive news does not equal immediate price increases. When incremental capital is insufficient, even the best long-term narratives may take time to reflect in the price.
⚡ $ETH: Technology continues to evolve, but the market is still waiting for a catalyst
ETH currently faces a key issue—not just price stagnation, but a lack of a strong independent narrative to attract new capital. Without ecosystem growth, capital inflows, or major events working together, short-term trends may still be influenced by overall market sentiment.
🎯 $SOL: High elasticity means opportunity, but also greater volatility
Compared to simply waiting for trends, SOL is more likely to attract short-term capital attention. But the faster the capital rotation, the higher the risk of chasing rallies. What truly matters is not catching every rise, but having a trading plan in advance, managing position sizes, and knowing when to exit.
📊 Next, what the market really needs to watch is wha The peak of the last bull market was $69,000, and this round reached as high as $126,000, an increase of about 80%. Judging by this trend, even if the next round can still rise by 70%, it would already be quite good. After all, the gains in each bull market are gradually narrowing. Calculating by this ratio, 126,000 × 1.7 = $214,200, which can basically be regarded as the theoretical upper limit for the next round. Of course, personally, I even think BTC may not break through $200,000 in the next round. So, it's not that I am not optimistic about Bitcoin, but from the current price, the future upside and the risks to bear do not seem to match that well. Unless you can buy in at a low of $40,000–$50,000, entering now at $80,000 and holding for four years until selling at $200,000 would yield only about a 150% return. Considering the volatility and uncertainty over such a long period, this investment is not as attractive as one might imagine. On the other hand, if you hold 80 shares of CRCL, do you think it has more potential to rise to $200? Even a future surge to $2,000 is not entirely impossible. So, from another perspective: can you still easily imagine BTC rising to $2 million each now? This is my current view on BTC. At this stage, Bitcoin may be more suitable for traders using more than 20x leverage, betting on short-term long or short directions. But asAccount Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$MAGIC divergence narrowing mainly comes from the decline in the proportion of short positions in accounts. The proportion of short positions held rose slightly to 47.8%; accounts are still bearish, positions are still bullish.#Ledger Investigation Update: Thefts Temporarily Concentrated in a Single Channel
Message from the leader
The latest Ledger investigation shows that theft cases are mainly concentrated at the Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis, with no breaches found in the official direct sales channels so far. However, some European users have reported suspicious components found in devices purchased from local authorized dealers.
The biggest risk for hardware wallets is not the device itself, but the channel. Where you buy it from is more important than the brand. A tampered Ledger device may leak the mnemonic phrase during initialization. Third-party estimates put losses at over $86 million, and that’s only the known cases.
Therefore, always buy hardware wallets through official channels. Upon receipt, check if the packaging is intact, and the mnemonic phrase must be generated by the device itself—never use a pre-set one. If the source is questionable, transfer your assets to a new wallet as soon as possible.
I still hold $BTC long at 83000 and short at 86500, hedging with light positions. No one-sided bets before CPI. Long stop loss at 81500, target 86000; short stop loss at 87500, target 84500-85000. Reduce whichever side hits first.
On-chain security ultimately depends on yourself; keeping your private keys secret is paramount. Remember to use stop losses on your trades; don’t hold losing positions.
$BTC $ETH $STRKETH在经历一轮快速下跌后，短线迎来强势反弹，正在尝试收复此前失去的部分空间。不过，反弹并没有持续扩大，价格从2473美元回升至2554美元后遇阻，目前回落至2536美元附近，多空双方仍在争夺主动权。 🔍 **短线盘面解读** 目前，MA5、MA10和MA20均线集中在2510—2520美元区间，并开始逐步向上发散，价格也重新站上短期均线，说明短线走势出现一定的企稳迹象。 📌 **重点关注以下价位：** - **第一支撑：2512美元** —— 1小时级别Supertrend趋势线，是判断短线反弹能否延续的重要参考。 - **关键支撑：2504美元** —— 如果该位置能够守住，短线仍有继续震荡修复的机会。 - **上方阻力：2541美元** —— 当前价格附近的短线压力，需要有效突破才能进一步打开上行空间。 - **强势突破位：2554美元** —— 前期反弹高点，若放量突破并站稳，才更有利于行情继续向上发展。 🎯 **操作思路** 目前ETH运行在2536美元附近，不建议因为短线反弹就盲目追高。已有仓位可以重点观察2512美元和2504美元这两个支撑区域，在支撑有效的前提下，Real trading day 182, today I traded the altcoin $RVN. This was a short position, a trend-following short.
This $RVN altcoin position had a maximum floating profit of about 15 points, but I planned to hold it longer, so I set a stop loss and then left it alone.
My entry price was 0.001846. This level had already been declining for a long time, with short-term oscillations, so I shorted.
The stop loss I set was also at a resistance level, but unfortunately it was triggered. Now $RVN has dropped again after hitting the stop loss. Just bad luck.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Bitcoin and Ethereum do not necessarily follow the same market logic every time.
If BTC continues to rise while ETH shows weakness, it indicates that market funds may still be more inclined toward Bitcoin.
However, if both BTC and ETH rise simultaneously, and ETH's gains start to surpass BTC's, the signal released is different. This may mean that the market's risk appetite is expanding, and funds are no longer focused solely on Bitcoin but are beginning to spread to Ethereum and other mainstream assets.
Of course, the performance of just one trading session is not enough to confirm that a trend has formed. But this change is worth continuous observation and should not be easily ignored.
What truly matters is not just whether BTC and ETH are rising, but who is rising stronger and what changes are happening in fund preferences. 10.12｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's plan is very clear: mainly short on Monday's rally, no chasing longs without volume recovery.
$BTC is currently around 83,800, having hovered around 83,000 for two days over the weekend, then pulled up to 84,200 in the Asian session. But it didn't even touch the 86,000 upper wick; funding rates are slowly falling, longs are still chasing, and if no one picks up in the US session, the price tends to give back gains.
$ETH is around 2,540, following the same rhythm as BTC, rebounding from 2,490 over the weekend to 2,555, but 2,580 also didn't hold.
This week's variable is Wednesday's CPI; the minutes already indicated another rate hike this year is appropriate, and Michigan inflation expectations are still rising. If CPI is hot, US Treasury yields will rise again, and BTC could retest 80,400 or even 79,000 at any time.
Strategy:
BTC: Short in the 84,500-86,000 range, target 80,400-79,000
ETH: Short in the 2,560-2,620 range, target 2,450-2,400
If BTC recovers 86,000 with volume, cancel shorts immediately, don't stubbornly hold.
Trading isn't about guessing ups or downs, it's about planning what to do if it rises, what to do if it falls, and admitting mistakes when wrong. Think clearly before acting.
What do you think will happen after CPI is released? Will BTC first drop to 79,000 or directly recover 86,000? Institutions are buying aggressively, but the price just won't rise.
Last week, Strive spent $169 million to buy 2,000 $BTC at an average price of $84,422, bringing their total holdings to 29,462 coins. Morgan Stanley's total holdings rose to 10,600 coins. Whales increased their holdings by about 15,000 $BTC within 72 hours, all holding onto their chips.
But the price just didn't go up.
⭕️ The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 5.3%, which naturally disadvantages cash-flow-free assets like BTC.
⭕️ ETFs are withdrawing. This week, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of $678.9 million.
⭕️ Hedging is offsetting buying pressure. While institutions buy spot, the futures side is hedging. Spot selling pressure and futures hedging are simultaneously consuming buying power.
So BTC is stuck in a tug-of-war around 83,000.
Institutions are indeed buying, and selling pressure is also real.
Next, we will watch the CPI on October 14 and see if ETF fund flows can turn positive again.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 I'm serious about writing posts. Setting off again today.
Still starting with BTC. BTC is like a box of chocolates; before opening, you don't know its shape. When opened, the wonderful patterns and overflowing aroma instantly intoxicate you, but initially, it tastes bitter and sour. Only by slowly savoring it does that rich sweetness truly become mine.
BTC's price yesterday started around 82900, first hovering around 83000 for 20 hours, then in the last 4 hours before the day ended, it directly surged to around 83900. Up to now, it remains at this golden price. It sweetened my whole night. Looking ahead, I expect it to fluctuate around 83500, preferably without rising too much. The reason will be explained later.
The biggest news catalyst for last night's rise was probably Trump announcing the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement. This directly determines energy prices and makes the subsequent CPI data look better. Would you say that's important?
I entered my BTC long position at 82900, with the initial target set near the resistance level at 82850 for profit-taking. I executed this and repeatedly emphasized it in the post. I've attached the chart for everyone to reference the thought process.
From BTC entry to exit, I believe the real importance is not how much we earned on this trade, but whether we made a logical plan and had the internal discipline to execute it accordingly. 7 AM, and the outside is already completely bright. The footsteps of morning runners come from downstairs, and the smell of cooking oil from breakfast stalls drifts into the room. This is a new day full of hope for others, but I have already stayed up several nights in a row. The room is dead silent; I curl up in front of the computer, staring at the string of red and green flashing numbers, like watching fireworks that have nothing to do with me. #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
$GRASS: [Bloody frenzy, remnants of life]
Opening price 0.08423, current price 0.087000.
Main position, unrealized profit 1,507.77U, ROI 58.55%.
Grass earned over 1500U, enough to get a comprehensive critical illness screening at a top private hospital. But looking at this 1500+ U, I can’t even shed a tear. It rose nearly 30% in 24 hours, on-chain whales are still rushing in, and 8 hours ago someone spent 1.7 million U to buy 780,000 tokens. But what about my position? I don’t even have the courage to add more. It’s called "Grass," and I’m like a blade of grass. Wherever the wind blows, I fall. I dare not spend the money I earned, dare not admit the losses, stay up late until my heart races, and still pretend I’m "investing," "changing my fate."
$BTC: [Cold trump card, full of scars]
Opening price 81,743.6, current price 83,852.67.
Main position, unrealized profit 662.84U, ROI 46.78%.
Bitcoin is as steady as Mount Tai, with a defense line far below at 63,538; it’s the strongest fortress in my account. But no matter how steady it is, it can’t steady my insomnia at 4 AM. The person locked inside the fortress is already full of scars.
$ETH: [Faith buried, devastated]
Opening price 2,474.81, current price 2,552.22.
Main position, unrealized profit 310.57U, ROI 48.66%.
Ethereum earned over 300U. It used to be my faith in this market; I thought it could take me away from mediocrity and achieve freedom. But the young person who once believed "Ethereum would change the world" has been worn down bit by bit through countless sleepless nights.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？
The account is in the red, but the person is gray.
I calculated that these three positions together have unrealized profits of over 2,000U. But when I stare at GRASS’s straight line shooting up, my hands tremble and my heart is empty. I know these numbers can disappear at any moment. Just one needle, one injection, one sudden plunge, and they will vanish as if they never existed. And I will, like countless nights before, continue sitting in front of the screen, waiting for it to come back.
I pushed my chair back and stood up. My legs are numb, my eyes sore, and my stomach empty and uneasy. Those morning runners outside will finish running, go to work, meet friends, and have a warm breakfast. But I don’t even have the strength to open the curtains.
I stared at the screen for a long time, then clicked the mouse. I didn’t close any positions, nor did I add any. I just closed the laptop. Then I picked up my phone and sent a message to a friend I hadn’t contacted in a long time: "How have you been lately?" After sending it, I stood up, walked to the window, and pulled open the curtains.
The sunlight was blinding. I squinted and stood there for a long time.
Unrealized profits of 2,000U can’t buy back the life I’ve burned away. No matter how steady Bitcoin is, it can’t steady my broken life. The frenzy of Grass can’t buy back my roots. No trades today. Today, I’ll sleep first. Today, I’ll just be a person.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681.1 million, and Solana ETFs also experienced an outflow of $24.8 million.
However, due to the significant difference in the overall scale of the two types of ETFs, simply comparing the outflow amounts does not directly indicate which side is under greater financial pressure.
What truly deserves attention next is when the funds will flow back and whether the pace of the return is consistent.
If BTC and SOL both see a capital rebound simultaneously, it suggests that market demand may be recovering overall; but if Bitcoin recovers inflows first while Solana continues to experience outflows, it may reflect that funds still prefer to allocate to BTC.
The data on fund outflows is just the past; the subsequent direction of funds is the key. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize first and whether Solana can catch up are changes worth continuous observation. Last night, after 11 o'clock, I came across two pieces of news. After reading them, I turned off my computer and went to sleep peacefully. First: Trump announced that the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement was effective immediately, and neither side could damage each other's energy infrastructure. Second: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said it would take "absolute isolation action" against Iran. Iran has lost 85% to 90% of its missile and drone manufacturing capacity, and gasoline queues take 3 to 4 hours. Trump expects no military conflict before the midterm elections. Many people's first reaction upon seeing these two pieces of news is, "Oh, geopolitical easing is good, good for risk assets." But I think most people don't realize the true weight of these two pieces of news—they're not just simple "positive news," but rather dismantling the root cause of this BTC crash. Let me break down how this crash started. Let's rewind to a week ago. The situation in Iran suddenly became tense, with the US military increasing its troops in the Middle East, and the market began pricing in "the US is going to attack Iran." If Iran is attacked, the Strait of Hormuz could be blocked, and 20% of the world's oil shipments pass through there. Brent crude soared from 95% to 105, hitting a new high. As oil prices rose, inflation expectations rose. The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the new chairman, Warsh, made his hawkish debut, and the market was already worried about rate hikes. After oil prices broke 105, the probability of a rate hike in October once surged above 60%. US Treasury yields began to soar, with the 10-year yield rising from 5.3% all the way to 5.73%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year yield fell below 5.5%. US Treasury yields soaredSomeone sold 410 BTC and converted it all into ETH
He sold 410 BTC on Hyp, worth $34.16 million. Then he immediately bought 14,341 ETH on DEX, worth $36.14 million.
The money from selling BTC was almost entirely poured into ETH.
This is not an ordinary portfolio shift; it’s a directional bet.
By selling BTC to buy ETH, he is essentially betting that ETH will outperform BTC going forward. Currently, the ETH/BTC rate is around 0.03, at a historical low range, and he is betting this rate will rebound.
Recently, BTC dropped from 86,000, and ETH also fell, but ETH’s decline was relatively smaller. Some are betting ETH will stabilize before BTC, while others think this is just a normal rotation after BTC’s heavy drop.
Whether he bet correctly or not, only time will tell. But the portfolio shift of 410 BTC at least shows he believes ETH offers better value than BTC right now.
What do you think? Can ETH outperform BTC this time? Let’s discuss in the comments.
The above is based on on-chain data compilation and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $GRASS This position feels suitable for a light short entry, current price 0.85, +25% in 24 hours. Just broke through the previous high of 0.819, with resistance only left at 0.90 above. Some are pushing it in the short term, waiting for a pullback to 0.84~0.85. If it breaks below 0.83, this phase will be over.10:30 AM, the sun is shining brightly outside the window, and the plaza in the neighborhood carries the sunny scent of the neighbor auntie's sun-dried quilts. From downstairs, the faint sound of office workers making business calls can be heard. This is the most vibrant moment in the entire world. Meanwhile, I have drawn the heavy blackout curtains in my room, and the air is so stale it turns sour
$DOGE: [Gorgeous numbers, remnants of life]
Opening price 0.08423, current price 0.086994.
Main position, unrealized profit 1,632.43U, ROI 63.22%.
The dog really went crazy, earning over 1600U. I could have used this money to buy my favorite sneakers or enjoy the finest buffet
$BTC: [Cold armor, imprisoning cage]
Opening price 81,743.6, current price 83,919.6.
Main position, unrealized profit 736.79U, ROI 51.86%
The big coin's defense line is far at 62,894, perfectly safe. It is the armor of my account but the cage of my real life
$ETH: [Martyrdom faith, scarred and battered]
Opening price 2,474.81, current price 2,553.35.
Main position, unrealized profit 395.16U, ROI 61.51%
Ether earned nearly 400U. It was once my faith, the light I thought could lead me out of mediocrity
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 Beware of dumping after the pump! Sonic coin at 0.06 is already a high level! $S The Sonic token surged from $0.037 to above $0.06, an increase of over 60%, but this price has no fundamental support at all. Look at the real on-chain data. Sonic's total daily on-chain fee income is only about $75, with an annualized income of about $27,000, while the token's market cap is as high as $160 million. To support the current valuation, on-chain income needs to grow 200 to 350 times. This is not just an overvaluation; it's an absurd valuation. TVL tells the story even more clearly. Sonic's total locked value plummeted from a peak of $1.14 billion in May 2025 to about $33.85 million currently, a drop of over 97%. When a chain's locked capital is almost zero, it means users and funds are voting with their feet. The team is also disintegrating. In June 2026, three founding directors, including Andre Cronje, simultaneously resigned from the Sonic Labs board. In his resignation statement, Cronje clearly distanced himself, stating he was never involved in token economics, migration, or airdrop decisions, and that his strategic focus has shifted to the new project Flying Tulip. The most alarming is the capital flow. During this recent pump, real-time data shows about 9.36 million S tokens have been sold, indicating clear selling pressure near resistance levels. Who is pumping, who is selling—the answer is obvious. Market maker Wintermute, after ending cooperation, sold about$TRX TRX: TRON at 0.33, the most uneventful yet the most stable?
TRX today at $0.3305, 24h -0.08%, 7 days -1.55% — almost no drop in the entire market. This is TRX's temperament: not flashy, no big hits, but small drawdowns.
TRON's logic is very straightforward: USDT transfers, Southeast Asia/Latin America payments, low-fee transfers, stablecoin settlement network. Today USDT still has a $184B market cap and $36B daily volume; TRON is one of the old pipelines for stablecoin liquidity.
Price zones:
0.32–0.33: long-term sideways range
0.35–0.38: previous highs
Break below 0.30: stablecoin demand retreat
TRX is not for getting rich quick, but to ensure your "clone positions don't all die."
Today fear and greed index at 57, TRX barely moves. When Bitcoin falls, it falls slightly; when Bitcoin rises, it rises slightly. Many find it boring, but assets that survive from 2022 to 2026 are rare; many "high-performance new chains" didn't make it. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $TRX BTC is leaning towards a rebound this week, focusing on the dual catalysts of US-Russia energy deals and CPI.
Currently, BTC's trend this week is optimistic, with a target near $87,000. If it breaks through, then attention shifts to $90,000.
One notable change to watch is the US-Russia energy transactions and news related to the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. If energy supply expectations improve and oil price pressure eases, market concerns about inflation rebound may cool down. This is favorable for the sentiment recovery of risk assets.
Looking at BTC itself.
After the last round of decline, the price has climbed back above $82,000 and rebounded to around $83,000. I tend to interpret the current trend as a correction after the drop, rather than directly judging that a new round of decline has begun.
The US CPI released this Wednesday could become a catalyst for the market to further choose its direction. If BTC can hold above $82,000 and there is no significant reversal in energy news, then the probability of continued upward correction this week is more worth watching.
This week's outlook: short-term bullish, first target $87,000, then $90,000; if $82,000 is effectively broken down, this judgment needs to be reassessed.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#俄罗斯放宽柴油出口，霍尔木兹风险仍支撑油价 During the dot-com bubble, Amazon's stock price shrank by 95%, just one step away from bankruptcy.
Now, its market value has surpassed $2.7 trillion.When the coin price drops, the most common phrase that pops up is: buy a little more to lower the cost.
Old Wang thinks that before placing an order, you should first ask yourself: if I don't own any right now, would I still want to buy it?
If the answer is just "I've already lost money and I'm unwilling to give up," then the reason for averaging down needs to be reconsidered.
Before averaging down, look at three things:
① Does the original reason for buying still hold?
② After adding more, will this coin's proportion of the total funds be too high?
③ If it keeps falling, will the allocation of future funds be affected?
Lowering the cost means more money invested, but the risk doesn't necessarily decrease.
Averaging down requires a new judgment; you can't rely solely on old reluctance.#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test $BTC $ETH $SOL
Q: Has the market actually reversed now?
A: Not yet. More precisely, this is a corrective rally after a sharp drop entering a consolidation and confirmation phase. Market sentiment is better than before, with willingness to test, but trend reversal requires more evidence. For now, it can only be defined as a "rebound," not a "gear shift."
Q: What is the key level for BTC?
A: 90,000. It’s not easy to break above this round number. People trapped earlier and those chasing the rebound will consider taking profits there. Therefore, the price may not pass smoothly the first time it approaches. The real signal is a volume breakout followed by consecutive closes above 90,000; if that doesn’t happen, it’s still considered an oversold correction, and attention should be paid to whether there is support around 85,000.
Q: What about ETH and SOL?
A: ETH has moved from 2600 back to 2780, so the short-term focus has indeed shifted up, but the important range previously broken has not been fully recovered, so reversal conditions are insufficient. Use 2880 and 2680 as short-term benchmarks: failure to break 2880 indicates weak consolidation; if 2680 is lost, 2600 may be tested again.
Q: What about trading strategy?
A: Don’t rush BTC; consider after it stabilizes above 90,000; for ETH, don’t preset direction, watch reactions at 2880 and 2680; for SOL, wait and see for now. As long as the mid-term structure is intact, a bullish bias can be maintained, but being bullish doesn’t mean chasing every green candle.
In summary: Confirm first, then follow; don’t rush to treat the rebound as a reversal if key levels aren’t broken. Current Status of Colend (Core Chain Lending Protocol) 1. The contract has not been shut down; the on-chain contract still exists, and the frontend website is still accessible, but the business is basically "effectively frozen," with activity almost at zero. - In March 2026, a massive chain liquidation was triggered by a sharp drop in the CORE token price, severely damaging the entire protocol. Although the official statement says the protocol code itself was not hacked and the issue was caused by market leverage liquidations with no bad debt, liquidity was severely destroyed. - The current TVL is only a few million USD, with the vast majority of collateral assets being CORE/stCORE; liquidity for stablecoins and BTC-type assets is almost depleted. - Almost no assets can be borrowed: even if collateral is deposited, the lending pool has no available liquidity; ordinary users can mainly only make deposits, and the lending function is basically unusable. 2. Status of the CLND Token - The CLND token is still listed on exchanges, but trading volume is extremely low, depth is poor, and the price has dropped drastically compared to its peak. - Colend's official social updates have significantly decreased in frequency, and large-scale incentive activities have ceased. 3. Key Reminders for Existing Users - The contract is not frozen; you can withdraw your deposited collateral assets by manually redeeming and withdrawing through the app; do not continue to deposit new funds. - The protocol has experienced extreme liquidation events, and the collateral is the highly volatile CORE token, carrying very high leverage risk. Simple Summary ✅ The contract has not been abandoned or closed on the technical level; it is still accessible and assets can be withdrawn ❌The "$S Sonic (S)" "blank trap" operation has left clear on-chain traces.
A public chain with a daily fee income of only $75 had its token market value once pushed up to $1.03, with a market cap exceeding $1 billion. This valuation itself was a carefully designed trap—pulling the price to a high level through narrative and incentives without any real revenue support.
What followed played out according to the standard script. TVL plummeted from $1.14 billion to $20 million, evaporating 98%. Three founding directors, including the most well-known Andre Cronje, resigned simultaneously on June 19, 2026. In his resignation statement, Cronje deliberately distanced himself, stating he "never" participated in token economics, migration, or airdrop decisions. After the cooperation ended, market maker Wintermute sold about $857,000 worth of S tokens within 24 hours.
The most ironic part is that Sonic locked 75% of the airdropped tokens in NFTs for 270 days, with early redemption requiring a burn penalty of up to 66%. This is not an airdrop; it locks users’ assets in a downward channel, ensuring the project team has enough time to complete the sell-off.
When a chain’s core builders collectively leave, market makers withdraw, TVL drops to zero, and daily income is only $75, its only "use" left is to complete the final sell-off before going to zero.$STRK
STRK is still surging, but does the cooling off in gains mean the trend is over?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 0.10183—0.12687 USDT, change +16.25%, trading volume about 74.35 million USDT.
The window's return has slowed compared to yesterday, but the observation range has shifted upward. Momentum cooling and price range increase can happen simultaneously. Strength should not be judged solely by percentage, nor should rising prices be taken as proof that application revenue has been realized.
If the 0.12687 peak fails and subsequent lows continue to decline, be cautious of increased supply; if the pullback holds the new range and real demand follows, then the upward continuation is reinforced. Cooling off itself is not evidence of a reversal.#BTC Highlights:
Pullback realized, judgment correct. Enter at 60,000, exit at 88,000, short at 86,200, cover and add short at 80,600.
Next target 94,000.
The key is whether 86K can turn into support.Sei is a high-performance L1 public chain focused on the trading track, positioned specifically for order book DEXs, contract trading, and high-frequency on-chain trading, directly competing with Sui, Aptos, and Solana. ✅ Highlights (Bullish Logic) 1. Differentiated Positioning: Not an all-purpose public chain, but focused on on-chain trading. Native parallel execution and fast finality; originally with Twin-Turbo consensus, now fully pushing the Sei Giga major upgrade aiming for 200,000 TPS and finality within 250ms. It also adds the Sedna privacy trading layer, focusing on MEV resistance to attract institutional-grade on-chain trading demand. 2. Architecture Transformation (SIP-3): Shifting from Cosmos SDK route to a pure EVM chain, abandoning CosmWasm and shutting down IBC cross-chain. Benefits: Ethereum developers can migrate directly, Solidity contracts deploy with one click, lowering development barriers; downsides: completely detaching from the Cosmos ecosystem, losing original IBC assets and Cosmos community foundation. 3. Clear Ecosystem Direction: Ecosystem focus on order book DEXs, perpetual contracts, RWA, prediction markets (previously partnered with Kalshi), Chainlink, Pyth and other oracles already integrated, suitable for latency-sensitive trading DeFi. 4. Strong Institutional Financing Background: Early financing lineup was good; the trading track narrative is easily hyped by capital during bull markets, showing strong elasticity when crypto markets are favorable. ⚠️ Core Risks (also the biggest constraints on prospects)🚨 Contract funds are simultaneously flowing back and retreating, who is secretly positioning?
Let me tell you, the capital flow of the four major mainstream coins has already shown obvious divergence!
🔴 $BTC: 24-hour net inflow +$604 million, but net outflow of -$109 million in the last hour, and a net outflow of -$4.731 billion in the last 30 days. Short-term funds fluctuate repeatedly, with considerable medium- to long-term pressure.
🔴 $ETH: 24-hour net inflow +$71.8095 million, inflow of +$62.144 million in the last 2 hours, but net outflow of -$5.367 billion in the last 30 days. Some short-term replenishment, but this does not mean the trend has reversed.
🟠 $SOL: 24-hour net inflow +$48.216 million, net outflow of -$1.994 billion in the last 30 days, short-term warming, long-term still under pressure.
🟢 $ZEC: 24-hour net inflow +$29.5757 million, net inflow of +$94.1248 million in the last 30 days, the only one among the four coins to maintain net inflow in the last 30 days, showing relatively strong capital performance.
My view is clear: short-term inflow does not equal the return of a bull market. Medium- to long-term capital pressure remains for $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL; $ZEC is relatively resistant to decline, but don’t blindly chase highs.
A reminder: contract net inflow does not equal real buying pressure; direction still needs to be judged in combination with price and open interest.
Do you think this is a main force shakeout, or the last bull trap before a rebound? See you in the comments!10.12｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: mainly short on Monday's rally, no chasing longs unless there's a volume-backed recovery.
$BTC is currently around 83,800. It consolidated near 83,000 over the weekend for two days, then Asian session directly pulled up to 84,200. The issue isn't the candlestick itself, but the 86,000 level wasn't even touched by the wick, funding rates are falling slowly, and longs are still chasing. If no one picks up during the US session, a pullback is very likely.
$ETH is around 2,540 now, moving in sync with BTC. It bounced from 2,490 to 2,555 over the weekend, but 2,580 also didn't hold.
The real variable this week is Wednesday's CPI. The minutes already indicated another rate hike this year is appropriate, and Michigan inflation expectations are still rising. If CPI comes in hot again, US Treasury yields may rise again, and BTC could retest 80,400 or even see 79,000.
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 84,500-86,000, target near 80,400-79,000.
ETH: Short between 2,560-2,620, target near 2,450-2,400.
If BTC recovers 86,000 with volume, the short position is invalidated immediately; never stubbornly hold against the trend.
Trading is never about guessing the outcome, but about thinking through three scenarios in advance: what to do if it rises, what to do if it falls, and where to admit being wrong.
What do you think after Wednesday's CPI release? Will BTC first drop to 79,000 or directly recover 86,000? Core's core narrative: BTCFi (Bitcoin DeFi) track, unique Satoshi Plus consensus, using Bitcoin hash power + PoS together to secure the network, focusing on letting idle BTC be staked to earn yield, with a token CORE capped at 2.1 billion (compared to BTC's 21 million). ✅ Bullish logic (advantages) 1. Scarce track narrative BTCFi has been one of the main themes in the crypto space in recent years, attracting many Bitcoin miners and BTC whales interested in this direction; its dual staking mechanism: staking CORE can earn higher BTC staking yields, theoretically generating continuous demand for CORE. The official 2026 roadmap focuses on ecosystem revenue buying back CORE, no longer relying solely on inflation burning, attempting to build a revenue-supported token model. 2. EVM compatible, low entry barrier Ethereum developers can directly deploy contracts, with the ecosystem focused on BTC lending, BTC liquid staking, RWA, payments (SatPay), positioning itself as Bitcoin's smart contract chain. 3. Miner community foundation Early on, it attracted many BTC miners to participate in consensus, a differentiation other BTCFi projects (Babylon, Stacks) lack; many custodians and institutional service providers have joined to offer BTC staking solutions. ⚠️ Very significant risks (also the biggest constraints on prospects, the points you were concerned about before) 1. Controversy over decentralization of validator nodes + official node exit incident Previously there was an officialNonfarm payroll storm approaching, rate cut expectations face a "life-or-death trial"
🔥The global market holds its breath tonight: The US September nonfarm payroll data is about to be released, followed closely by the unemployment rate, both highly nerve-wracking. This heavyweight report will directly "judge" the market's bets on the Fed's rate cut path within the year.
📊Current expectations: about 150,000 new nonfarm jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. The market is more focused on the stickiness of average hourly earnings; whether the cooling of the labor force is real and sustained is tonight's biggest suspense.
⚡Policy background: The Fed has already started the rate cut cycle in September. The market currently bets on a high probability of further cuts in November, but under the "soft landing" narrative, if the data is abnormally strong, rate cut expectations may be reassessed, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to rebound strongly.
📉Clear impact on risk assets: Data beats expectations → rate cut expectations cool down → liquidity tightens → risk assets come under pressure; the opposite boosts the market. BTC is currently oscillating at a high level; volatility will inevitably increase around the data release, beware of "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
👀Key observation points: Not only watch the number of new jobs but also closely monitor the month-on-month hourly earnings and unemployment rate. This week's data will decide whether the macro "ceiling" will open further or remain temporarily sealed. Fasten your seatbelts! $S Sonic (S) On-Chain Evidence of Internal Emptiness
A public chain with a market cap of about $160 million has a daily fee income of only $75. This is not a joke; these are the real data of Sonic on DefiLlama. The annualized income is about $27,375. To support the current valuation, on-chain revenue needs to grow 200 to 350 times.
Looking at the total value locked (TVL), Sonic's TVL plummeted from a peak of $1.14 billion in May 2025 to about $20 million, a 98% evaporation. A network’s locked capital is almost zero, meaning users are voting with their feet and no longer trust putting funds on this chain.
The team is also disintegrating. On June 19, 2026, three founding directors—Andre Cronje, Michael Kong, and David Richardson—simultaneously resigned from the Sonic Labs board. In his resignation statement, Cronje explicitly distanced himself, stating he was never responsible for tokenomics, migration, or airdrop decisions. Before this, his focus had already shifted to a new project, Flying Tulip, which raised $200 million with a valuation of $1 billion.
Market makers are also withdrawing. Sonic ended its exclusive five-year partnership with Wintermute, which subsequently sold about $857,000 worth of S tokens.
A new CEO canceled all manual token minting and commissioned a third party to audit the token supply. This action itself indicates the transparency of the supply is... Conclusion first: $W rose 48% in 24 hours, but the real story today is the 4H candle at 8 AM — $W surged 19% in a single candle, with volume 12 times the average of the past 8 candles.
From 0.022 to 0.026, a single candle pushed it straight up.
This is not an emotional peak; it's a structural breakout driven by large capital entering intensively in a short time.
Do you think 0.026 can hold? $W ETH does not have a unified “whale standard”; thresholds vary across different platforms, and it is distinguished from BTC (≥1000 BTC) criteria: The two most commonly used classifications in the community (Santiment / Glassnode) 1. Super Whales: ≥100,000 ETH Very few addresses, ranging from several dozen to over sixty. ⚠️ The majority here are: Beacon Chain staking contracts, exchange custody wallets, ETF custody addresses; genuine individual whales are very rare. 2. Standard Whales: ≥10,000 ETH (the tier most closely watched) Approximately 800 to 1100 addresses; this tier represents the whales commonly referred to who actively trade and influence the market, including funds, large holders, and institutional self-custody wallets. 3. Large Holders/Sharks: ≥1,000 ETH This tier has many more addresses, numbering in the thousands, including many mid-sized funds, staking service providers, and DeFi treasuries. The most important misconception (same as BTC) Address ≠ real independent person - Beacon Chain deposit contracts, Lido, Coinbase staking pools, and major exchange cold wallets are all counted as whale addresses; - One whale can split assets into dozens of wallets; one wallet can hold tens of thousands of retail investors’ funds (custody). Therefore, on-chain data can only count wallet addresses and cannot accurately determine how many real independent “people” are whales. A simple comparison with the BTC you just asked about - BTC whale standard: ≥1000 BTC,#Minimalist Chan Theory $BTC $ETH
Although the price points arrive late, they do arrive. As I mentioned earlier, BTC reached around 8.4, and ETH reached around 2570. The initial rebound of ETH was relatively weak and did not move as fast as BTC. From the perspective of Chan Theory, when BTC's rebound was strong before, the 4-hour MACD had a golden cross below zero, but ETH had not yet formed a golden cross at that time.
The reason I changed my name to "Unity of Knowledge and Action" is because I often fail to achieve it myself. This time is no different. Although the market was weak and the trend slow over the weekend, the 5-minute consolidation zone upgraded. Even though I clearly knew the previous high of 8.35 would be broken, I still did not close my previous laddered short positions. After adding positions, the previous short positions cost BTC 8.3×2 and ETH 2502×40. After adding positions at the high point early this morning, my current cost is BTC 8.33×3 and ETH 2516×60. I am holding the full short position without moving it. Regardless of whether the price will rise further, it will eventually pull back. I will observe the strength of the pullback and then close the short positions.
For conservative operation to avoid missing out, yesterday, knowing a new high would be made, I should have closed half of the laddered short positions—that is, closed one BTC and 20 ETH—and then added back later. This would have resulted in a much better cost basis. At the same time, I am working hard to transition from a short-term trader to a trend trader and cannot be overly concerned with price points, or I will miss big moves, just like a few days ago when I kept waiting for a break of 8.74 and did not add short positions.
Trading is a practice of cultivation; the difficulty lies not in the technique but in the human heart.#CPI and PPI Announcements Imminent, Interest Rate Hike Expectations Face Test
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Q: ETFs are still being subscribed to, so why isn't the candlestick chart responding?
A: Because ETFs act more like "allocation vehicles" rather than "price-pumping vehicles." They can absorb some spot holdings but cannot reclaim marginal pricing power. When rate hike expectations turn hawkish, institutions first reduce high-volatility positions, so net inflows can only buffer the impact.
Q: Then who is actually selling off?
A: It's not a single major player but more like a combined force of three factors. First, the latest FOMC minutes are hawkish, the door to further tightening rates remains open; second, long-term US Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year hitting 5.36%, the highest since 2002, making risk-free returns attractive.
Q: What is the current status of BTC and ETH?
A: BTC is around 82,000, retreating about 2% in 24 hours, with the price center continuing to shift downward. ETH is more volatile; during bearish waves, it falls harder, dropping from 2700 to 2420, and a rebound to around 2480 is just a slight breather.
Q: Why are tokens like SOL more hurt?
A: They rely on new capital inflows and hot narratives. After liquidity is drained by the bond market, public chain tokens driven by sentiment and incremental buying are the first to run out of fuel; once the narrative cools, prices lose support.
Q: Is it time to bottom-fish now?
A: Don't rush. ETF inflows can't support the whole market, indicating selling pressure comes from broader macro cross-asset reallocations. Wait for volatility to subside and sentiment to stop panicking before considering phased entries. Holding positions and cash now is more important than trying to guess the bottom.
$BTC This is not a rebound; it's like performing CPR on my short account, right? During the intraday repeated fluctuations, $QUANT every time it surged upward, it was just short of breath, volume didn't keep up, and the resistance above was obvious. I saw it couldn't break through around 242.8, judging it as a heavy bull trap, so the bearish view I gave at the time was biased toward shorting.
Later, it really gave the answer: the price slid from 242.8 down to 237.5, shorts gained +111.2%, feeling good brothers. This profit was satisfying, the timing was just right.
First, close 80% of the position, keep the remaining 20% protected at cost price; if it continues to drop, let the profits run, if it rebounds, don't give back the profits.
The market is waited for, profits are held for. Risk control done in advance is called rationality; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action.
For friends who haven't entered, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in, chasing shorts easily gets caught by rebounds, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify immediately. The market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patience.
$ZEC $SOL Conclusion first: $W rose 48% in 24 hours, but the real story today is the 4H candle at 8 AM — $W surged 19% in a single candle, with volume 12 times the average of the past 8 candles.
From 0.022 to 0.026, a single candle pushed it straight up.
This is not an emotional peak; it's a structural breakout driven by large capital entering intensively in a short time.
Do you think 0.026 can hold? $W A chain can be shut down just like that, and anyone in that position would feel quite helpless.
The Sui Foundation invested 30 million in DATA Network, with the condition that the entire independent DATA chain be retired and the tokens migrated 1:1 to run on Sui.
To put it bluntly, this is not an investment, it's a takeover.
DATA has gone from having its own territory to becoming an application within the Sui ecosystem.
From the project team's perspective, 30 million is indeed a lot, but the cost is losing their own chain, their own narrative, and their own valuation logic.
What really matters isn't the 30 million, but the 250 million contribution records and the daily average of 3 million receipts.
The Trace application is genuinely being used.
So my judgment is: DATA isn't dead, it just changed its way of living, from "I want to build a chain" to "I'm working on Sui."
Looking ahead, more and more small chains will be absorbed by larger ecosystems, and the narrative of independent chains can basically be considered doomed in advance.
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ $DATA $BTC hardware wallets can also be tampered with? This security issue is more serious than imagined!
Ledger has confirmed that at least one affected user's device was found to have an unauthorized hardware implant. Media reports indicate that the problem is suspected to be related to the supply chain of the dealer CryptoBilis. Attackers may have used the implanted circuit to obtain the mnemonic phrase displayed during device initialization. The estimated amount stolen on-chain has exceeded 86 million USD, but the total loss has not yet been finally confirmed.
The most frightening part of this incident is that many people think buying a hardware wallet means everything is safe, but they overlook the purchase channel and whether the device has been tampered with. Cold wallets can reduce some risks but cannot solve all security issues for you.
Do you think you would still dare to buy hardware wallets through third-party dealers in the future? $ETH The biggest positive factor right now is:
Interest rate hikes, the US-Iran war, US debt out of control, Saudi Arabia and Yemen also fighting, yet the US stock market manages to hold up, and the crypto pullback is relatively weak.
When negative news can't shake the market, that's a positive for $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ #Potential "Energy Ceasefire" Agreement Between Russia and Ukraine, Progress Pending Confirmation
The Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire sounds like good news, but all the details are full of question marks.
On October 11, Trump announced that both sides agreed to stop attacks on energy facilities, effective immediately, but did not disclose the specific terms of the agreement. Zelensky expressed support, on the condition that Russia also complies, and is still waiting for the U.S. side to provide specific arrangements. Russia has not officially confirmed it yet. Adding insult to injury, the Ukrainian side said that after Trump's ceasefire announcement, Russia still launched attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities.
Meanwhile, the Middle East remains unsettled. The Houthi forces claimed an attack on a Saudi airport, and oil tankers were attacked again in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Both energy routes are simultaneously under threat.
The market reaction was very direct. Brent and WTI both dropped more than 1.6% because the ceasefire expectation is lowering the risk premium. But this decline is not large, indicating the market is not fully convinced. The agreement has not been finalized, both sides are still blaming each other, and a fallout could happen at any time.
For BTC, this is a marginal short-term positive. Oil price retreat can ease inflation expectations, reducing the urgency for Federal Reserve rate hikes slightly. But don't get too excited yet; as long as the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is not in black and white, and Middle East shipping risks remain unresolved, oil prices could bounce back at any time. BTC is currently oscillating around 83,000, with resistance between 83,500 and 84,500, and support between 81,500 and 82,000. The direction is still undecided.
In terms of trading, don't bet on the ceasefire outcome. Wait for the agreement to be officially finalized or for oil prices to show a clear trend before considering whether to enter or exit. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Ledger Investigation Update: The Theft Is Temporarily Concentrated in a Single Channel
The boss has something to say
The latest update on the Ledger investigation is out. The theft cases are concentrated at the Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis; no breaches have been found in the official direct sales channels. However, a European user reported that devices bought from a local authorized dealer also contained suspicious components.
I believe the biggest risk for hardware wallets is not the device itself, but the channel. Where you buy it from is more important than the brand. A Ledger device with implanted hardware could leak the mnemonic phrase during initialization. Third-party estimates put losses at over $86 million, and that’s only the known amount.
Therefore, when buying a hardware wallet, you must trust the official channels. Upon receipt, check if the packaging is intact, and during initialization verify that the mnemonic phrase is generated by the device itself, not pre-set. If you have already purchased one and the source is questionable, quickly migrate your assets to a new wallet.
I still hold long BTC at 83000 and short at 86500, hedging both sides with a light position. No one-sided bets before CPI release. Long stop loss at 81500, target 86000. Short stop loss at 87500, target 84500 to 85000. Whichever target is reached first, reduce that position first.
The hardware wallet incident reminds us that the security of on-chain assets ultimately depends on ourselves. Keeping private keys secret is stronger than anything else. Always set stop losses on your trades; don’t hold through losses. $BTC $ETH $STRK
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.The Fear and Greed Index jumped to 69 today,
Greedy state, up 8 points from yesterday.
Interestingly, market sentiment is heating up,
but many people's positions haven't caught up yet,
some are selling BTC to buy ETH,
410 BTC exchanged for more than 14,000 ETH.
Funds are rotating, not retreating.
$BTC
$ETH
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $BTC's major move over the weekend was in the stronger range of 82000-84000 as predicted, but currently macro pressure is weighing down, so the rebound strength may be limited. Be cautious of the risk of price encountering resistance above and pulling back; consider light short positions near 84000.
Macro headwinds include rate hikes and AI capital competition. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%-4.00%, with another hike possible before year-end. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure is pushing up long-term yields, with the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 5.28%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin.
Regulation and security: The EU is reviewing MiCA and considering requiring non-custodial wallet developers to obtain certification, adding compliance uncertainty. Additionally, Ledger hardware wallets suffered a supply chain attack, losing approximately $86 million to $93 million, which is a short-term negative for market sentiment.
Capital flow: ETFs continue to see outflows. In the first 7 trading days of October, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of $386.3 million, and capital inflows have yet to be confirmed.
$ETH short-term resistance is focused on the 2580-2600 range. If this resistance cannot be broken and held, I personally think it could be a good short opportunity. The 2470 level is holding, and this rebound is quite strong—a deep V-shaped recovery.
The above are personal views for reference only Currently watching two hot coins: $STRK and $MAGIC, both have been rallying fiercely recently. STRK just upgraded its mainnet and launched incentives, short-term sentiment is quite heated; MAGIC has been even more volatile these days, with a 24-hour turnover rate soaring over 600%, a typical target for speculative traders.
Personally, I feel that the explosive type like MAGIC is more suitable for shorting—it rises sharply but also falls hard, though the volatility is too high, so position size must be well controlled. STRK has fundamental support; if shorting, you need to wait until it shows signs of weakening after a rally.
Are there any others watching these two? Let's discuss in the comments which is more suitable for shorting? Let's exchange ideas #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $BTC is back near $83.7K, but one green day doesn't settle the bigger question
The rejection near $87K put sellers back in focus. Now I'm watching whether BTC can hold the $82K area or lose it on another attempt lower
If support breaks, $79K is the first downside level I'd watch, followed by $73K if selling pressure accelerates. A deeper move toward $65K would need further confirmation
On the other side, reclaiming $85K–$87K would weaken the bearish case
I wouldn't call $53K inevitableThe overnight movement of Dogecoin tells a story of "not falling."
On the 15-minute chart, the price started from 0.08502, with one bullish candle after another pushing it up to 0.08767. It then did not reverse downward but instead consolidated around 0.0867. The volume expanded to 4.31 million coins during the rise and shrank during the pullback — the selling pressure did not keep up, which is why the consolidation held.
There are several details on the chart worth noting. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages converge around 0.0868, with the price running just above the moving average band, indicating a brief balance between bulls and bears here. The super trend line is pressing at 0.08728; in the morning, the price touched 0.08718, just one step away from a bullish signal. On the order book, there is a buy order of 280,000 coins at the best bid, while the best ask only has 28,000 coins, showing strong support below.
Looking at a longer timeframe, the pattern is clearer. There was a 7.81% pullback in the past 7 days, but the 30-day period still shows a 2.43% gain, and the 90-day gain is 16.39%. This means the recent weekly pullback occurred within a quarterly uptrend structure, with the low around 0.085 higher than previous bottoms.
The next key point is straightforward: $DOGE needs to break above 0.08728 with volume to turn the super trend green and connect the upward channel; conversely, if it falls below the moving average convergence zone at 0.0868, it will retreat to around 0.0850 to rebuild support. The consolidation won’t last long, and the directional choice will be made within the next one or two candles.$FIL has been pumping again these past couple of days for some unknown reason. $FIL, this trash, stop pretending to be the "king of decentralized storage."
Back in 2020 when the mainnet launched, you loudly proclaimed you would "disrupt AWS and Google Cloud," but six years later, you look more like a seasoned player propped up by early ICO fundraising and miner staking — all grand narratives, but in your pockets, only a bunch of idle capacity and continuously devaluing tokens remain.
Let's first look at your so-called "decentralized storage" trick. Sounds cool, right? Storage providers lock FIL as collateral and use complex proofs to guarantee data availability. But in reality? The actual paid storage usage is laughably small compared to your total capacity, and enterprise-level demand remains stuck in PPTs and "about to launch" stages.
Then there's your tokenomics. Circulating supply is just over 8 million, with a total supply close to 2 billion. Over the years, Protocol Labs and the foundation have been continuously flooding the market with tokens through a six-year linear unlock. The price has crashed from over $200 in 2021 to just over $1 now, a drop of nearly 99.5%. This is not a "scarce asset," it's chronic bleeding. Fortunately, the unlock ending around mid-October will cut issuance by about 70%, which sounds like good news, right? But this rebound looks more like the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario — history shows your "supply-demand balance" has always been just talk.
Pump and then short, this trash token! Bitcoin has hit $83,880 three times in a row this morning, clearly trying hard to break through the $84,000 barrier!
$BTC's current price has bounced back to around $83,750, with each pullback low higher than the last.
In my logic, there are only two outcomes when resistance is repeatedly tested: either a strong breakout above 84,000 to squeeze shorts completely, or a failure to break through leading to a deep retracement. I won’t chase the price higher during the Asian session; I’ll set my stop loss and wait for a clear direction!