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$CAP Why current short positions are very dangerous
Currently, the number of people shorting is more than those going long, ratio about 7:3, and the funding rate is indeed positive
Retail shorts, whales are many
Core: look at the long-short ratio for people, look at the funding rate for money.
• 80% short (retail): fear of heights, topping out, many people but little money.
• 20% long (market makers): few people, but huge capital volume.
• Positive funding rate: total long capital > short, longs pay.
Market situation: retail shorts are the fuel, the main force pulls up causing a short squeeze. Brothers, I’ve directly reached enlightenment in the trading arena!
To go long, you have to learn how to pick coins, and even more importantly, how to compare them.
Before, I was foolishly stubborn, only going long on eth.
But now looking at it,
$BTC is way stronger than $ETH.
My logic: BTC has already risen above the weekly 5MA,
while ETH is still suppressed by the 5MA.
What does strong mean?
Losing less is what counts as strong! Losing more means chips are scattered, naturally weak, and a rebound will take more time to shake out and recollect chips before it can rise.
So I’m going long on BTC and short on ETH! $BTC $ETH Trump suddenly claimed that Russia and Ukraine have reached some kind of ceasefire agreement on energy, causing international oil prices to drop immediately. This is actually a brief easing window in external geopolitical risks, which might slightly affect the hot money jumping between various markets.
The impact of this news on my positions must be viewed from two sides. The most troublesome is my $STRK short position with a floating loss of 666%, bought at 0.09188, now at 0.104, held for almost 2 days. If this news boosts the overall market risk appetite, it might not be bad for altcoins, but my short position could become more passive. I can only hold on hard now and pray it doesn't keep surging. On the other hand, my slightly profitable $ZEC short position, 50x leverage opened at 1338, now at 1328, seems to have a better chance. This asset sometimes correlates with traditional market sentiment; if the risk-off sentiment cools down because of this, it might put some pressure on it, which is an invisible assist for my short. I plan to keep holding and observe if it can drop further.
Of course, the crypto world often doesn't play by the rules. If Bitcoin itself stays stable around 84190 or even quietly creeps up, and the whole market sentiment is completely unaffected by external factors, then this oil news is as if it never happened for us—pure noise from the outside world.
Keeping a close eye on the market, tightening the wind and pulling the sail.The token here can go up or down. It can go up because the pullback adjustment at 87K has already secured liquidity below on the 4-hour timeframe.
It can go down because the low point of the 4-hour pullback hasn't been fully confirmed yet.
Following the principle of big moves in the main direction and small counter-moves, a small adjustment around 83000-82500 could be a chance to go long, but if it breaks below 82K, expect further pullback to find a bottom. Two types of privacy coins. Two completely different mining windows.⛏️
🏴☠️ $ARRR — ASIC mining. 83.8% of the scheduled supply within 2 years.
🐉 $DRGX — CPU mining. Only 25.0% within 2 years.
“No premine” is just part of the story.
Who can mine the supply—and when?
#PrivacyCoins #ZEC #XMR #Dash #比特币mk4 this guy is going crazy! NEAR has been like it's on steroids these days, directly breaking the year's high and approaching $6. This guy, relying solely on a long position in NEAR, has a floating profit of over $20 million, with an average price of only 2.35, a return rate of 1491%!
But don't think he got rich by all-in gambling; looking closely at his positions, this guy is extremely stubborn and tough. In his entire account, NEAR is his only long position, while the other seven coins ($BTC, $ETH, SOL, ADA, etc.) are all short positions! Now that the overall market is rebounding, those short positions are all taking hits, accumulating a floating loss of over $1 million.
However, the profit from his NEAR long is so huge that after offsetting the longs and shorts, the net floating profit of the entire account is still $19 million! I heard this guy once mistakenly cut losses on a $77 million gold short position, looks like a very storied big player. Now facing NEAR's surge, he neither reduced his position nor placed orders, showing an impressively big vision.The market is really frustrating, rising a bit then falling a bit, falling a bit then pulling back, like a loom pulling back and forth, watching the chart makes me nervous 😮💨
But honestly, this kind of sideways grinding phase is often the eve of a breakout. Market sentiment is a bit subtle right now—some are shouting that the altcoin season is coming, while others are still waiting for signals. Is it really? Let's take a closer look 👇
$BTC is currently around $74,800. Resistance above is at $76,264 (20-day moving average), then $78,000, a level repeatedly tested but not held over the weekend; support below is at $73,800 (this week's low) and the psychological $70,000 level.
$ETH is currently around $2,280. It is capped above by $2,300 (hourly chart bearish trendline), a breakout would target $2,415; support below is at $2,250, a short-term key defense line, breaking which could lead to $2,150.
$ZEC is currently around $312. Resistance above is $324 (this week's high), support below is the $300 round number.
This is different from what was expected. Today, Monday, there was no decent gain; the whole market was instead held down by geopolitical factors. The ceasefire agreement in the Strait of Hormuz from Iran has encountered new uncertainties, oil prices rebounded 8%, and the crypto market weakened accordingly. $BTC fell from the weekend high of $78,000 down to around $74,000. Over 160,000 liquidations occurred across the market in the past 24 hours.
Now we need to rethink the subsequent market situation.
Here are a few points I noticed:
First, although the Fear and Greed Index is still in the fear zone (28), it has risen significantly from the extreme fear (12) of previous weeks. Market sentiment is slowly recovering; it’s not the worst time anymore.
Second, the altcoin season index is only 34/100, and Bitcoin’s market dominance remains high at 59.8%. This indicates funds are still nesting in $BTC; the altcoin rotation hasn’t truly started. ETFs have locked institutional funds into Bitcoin, and the previous transmission chain of "BTC pumps then $ETH pumps, $ETH pumps then altcoins pump" has clearly slowed this round.
Third, on the macro side, the Federal Reserve interest rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% unchanged, and rate cut expectations have been pushed beyond September. The high interest rate environment itself suppresses risk assets, plus ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East make big money hesitant to act rashly.
Fourth, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $276 million last week, and 32% of $ETH is already staked. On-chain supply is tightening, but the price hasn’t reflected this yet; this divergence is worth attention.
My judgment is: short-term will still be mainly consolidation, $BTC will likely grind back and forth within the $73,000-$78,000 range. $76,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; only breaking above it will there be a chance to challenge $80,000; breaking below $73,800 means looking down to $70,000. Don’t rush to chase altcoins; wait for $BTC to show direction first.
What do you all think? Let’s chat in the comments 👇
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ BATON's market cap has dropped to 20 million just because it was the former company name of pump.fun
Now even memes are getting competitive in archaeology, an abandoned old name can still be pumped up$SNDK A slight pull-up and the market completely reverses? Be realistic!
After a surge, it immediately falls back. With such weak rebound strength, the bulls have not regained control of the market. It's really too early to talk about a reversal.
There are a lot of chips waiting to exit pressing down above. To truly turn the trend around, solid funds need to enter to support it, forcefully breaking through key resistance levels, not just a slight pull-up that is quickly smashed back by the bears.
Don't forget, the overall risks in the storage sector have always been there! $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $Lobster Mainstream coins are eating meat, lobster gets beaten, same wind different fate, that's exactly it
In the early morning, mainstream coins collectively climbed riding the tailwind of oil prices, BTC returned to 84,000, ETH also rose 1.6%, the market finally got a bit lively.
So what is lobster doing? It surged once, then got knocked back to its original state. Current price 0.041, the 24-hour high touched 0.045 then deflated like a punctured ball. This is not the first time—previously a trader went long on lobster, floating profit surged to 2.19 million USD, but finally exited with a loss of 907,000, giving back all profits and then some.
Why doesn't lobster rise when mainstream does? Because mainstream coins feed on macro factors—oil prices, US stock futures, crypto rising in sync, funds flow toward certainty. Lobster feeds on sentiment, no fundamentals, no narrative, just hanging on a bit of fairy aura, once pushed it disperses.
When the wind blows, pigs can fly; when the wind stops, lobster can't even find its shell. Others are climbing, it is bungee jumping, then lying motionless on the ground.
Trading advice: Don't get itchy to bottom buy just because 0.041 is cheap. Wait for two signals:
Volume breakout and hold above 0.045, try a small long position, stop loss below 0.042;
Sharp drop below 0.035 with volume and stabilization, try a small rebound play. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ETH A: What dimensions do $BTC, $ETH, and $NEAR represent when observed together?
B: BTC anchors the market cycle, ETH reflects the overall capital level in the crypto ecosystem, and NEAR indicates developer capital investment in the sharded public chain ecosystem.
A: What is the significance of observing them as a group?
B: Observing the three coins together makes it easier to judge whether the sharded L1 sector has formed a sustained trend, compared to simply watching the price movements of a single coin.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Whales are selling BTC to buy $ETH! Ethereum retracing to 2550 may trigger short liquidations
Direction: Long (buy the dip)
Entry range: 2540–2555
Take profit target: around 2650
Personal view:
Whales sold 410 BTC to switch positions and bought 14,300 ETH, worth $36.14 million, signaling a bullish outlook; short-term funds continue to flow in, with a 1D net inflow of 583 million and a 3D net inflow of 453 million, indicating rebound momentum remains. However, Ethereum Foundation-related wallets transferred 4,393 ETH to Kraken, posing potential selling pressure; heavy short liquidations are concentrated between 2600-2650, and breaking through this range could trigger a short squeeze.
Basis for position:
Flow Score +14, short-term funds are bullish, but 7D/15D still show net outflows, indicating a rebound market; price rebounded from the 2405 low, lightly long on the 2540-2555 support zone, aiming to play the breakout of the 2600 short liquidation zone. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Top 10 Most Profitable Money Printing Machines in the Crypto World, Do You Know Who They Are? Here's the most counterintuitive number first: These ten companies take $14 billion from users annually. Among them, Tether and Circle $CRCL alone account for $8.3 billion—47% more than the combined total of ranks 3 to 10. Below is the full list, with a one-sentence explanation of how each makes money. 1｜Tether — $5.95 billion a year You give 1 dollar to exchange for 1 USDT, and it uses your dollar to buy U.S. Treasury bonds to earn interest. USDT is its interest-free liability, and U.S. Treasuries are its assets. In short: a business that makes money with other people's money without paying interest. 2｜Circle — $2.39 billion The exact same business as Tether. The difference is it discloses reserves, obtains all licenses, and is publicly listed. In short: earns half as much but follows a compliant path. 3｜$PUMP — $1.2 billion Anyone can issue tokens with one click here; it takes a cut on every buy and sell transaction. In short: whether meme enthusiasts profit is uncertain, but the platform owner reliably earns fees. 4｜Polymarket — $470 million A prediction market that turns "I think it will/won't" into contracts you can bet on—elections, sports, anything. In short: it doesn't gamble itself; it takes a cut. 5｜Uniswap — $950 million The largest on-chain exchangeBefore buying, users were recommended to authorize channels, but after the incident, they have to dig through technical documents and track investigation progress themselves. What would users think? This trust is really hard to restore.
A report on October 11 pointed out that CryptoBilis was once listed in Ledger's dealer directory. Ledger has confirmed that one involved device contained unauthorized hardware implants and has issued a precautionary alert to users who purchased devices from that channel in the past three months. The full cause and scope of impact are still under investigation, and it cannot be concluded that all devices have issues based on this.
This time, I am more concerned about whether the risk notification can truly reach the buyers. Announcements on the official website and social media accounts are certainly useful, but people who bought devices months ago may not follow wallet news daily. Whether the brand and channel can contact these buyers determines how many people the reminder can help.
Returns, inspections, and follow-up handling also need someone to take responsibility. Technical investigations may take time, but there should be a clear entry point for which purchase records need to be kept, who to verify batches with, and how often progress is updated. Expecting users to constantly judge whether they are affected is hard for me to accept.
I don't want to hold anyone accountable based on unconfirmed speculation, nor accept just leaving it at "channel problem." The trust brought by authorized recommendations is concrete, and post-incident service should be concrete as well. At least let users know who to contact next, rather than getting more and more anxious reading through a bunch of conflicting posts.
#Ledger调查新进展：失窃暂集中单一渠道 $UNITREE's rebound is a trap; the shorts haven't had their fill yet.
The stock price dropped from 1100 to around 414, with high-level short positions profiting, but don't rush to chase the bottom.
$UNITREE is issued at a PE of 219 times, initially speculated up to 800 times on the first day, and now hovering around 300 times. Revenue increased by 48% in the first half of the year, but net profit after deducting non-recurring items fell by 19%, showing revenue growth without profit growth. Zhiyuan's shipments have surpassed, JPMorgan Chase's target price is 300 yuan, and institutions remain cautious.
The moving averages show a bearish arrangement, the rebound lacks volume support, holding volume hasn't significantly decreased, and the short structure remains intact. After a sharp drop, there is an oversold rebound, but until it stabilizes above resistance levels, treat it only as a rebound.
The Q3 report will be disclosed on October 29; net profit after deducting non-recurring items and gross profit are key indicators. Direction will be determined after the data is released. $STRK Those who can't withstand the volatility in this trade leave first. I opened a position at 0.12 this morning, and it dropped to 0.115, hitting the stop-loss line. In less than 20 minutes, my stop-loss was triggered, then it cascaded down all the way. The more I averaged down, the more I lost. I always feel like it's finally bottomed out, but this market simply has no bottom. In a bull market, quality assets will rise sooner or later. The real test is never the ability to spot opportunities, but the ability to hold on.
Looking back, I missed too many.
DASH oscillated at a low level for a long time, finally got out of the red, and then immediately sold.
ZEC, thought the entry price wasn’t good enough, made a little profit and sold.
ONDO, while other coins surged in the bull market, it stayed still; made a little profit and sold, only to see it double right after selling.
The only ones that truly held from the bottom to the top were SUI and UNI.
Now I understand, the most expensive thing in a bull market isn’t the buying price, but the lack of firm conviction and the inability to hold quality chips.
Scrolling through Twitter really teaches you a lot. When you find quality assets, ask AI, study fundamentals, narratives, valuations, and risks. If the logic holds, buy in batches; after buying, as long as the core logic hasn’t changed, don’t easily sell just because of short-term stagnation.
The secret to making big money in a bull market isn’t chasing daily ups and downs, but finding a few truly good assets and giving time some patience.
Spotting opportunities is a skill; holding onto them is a practice.现在是洗筹还是博弈阶段，我有点说不准，但有个巨鲸的仓位让我盯着看了很久。 当"死扛"变成唯一策略，这到底是信念还是被动？ Lookonchain 最新扒出来的数据挺扎心的：Maji 那个账户现在只剩大约 154 万美元的自有资产，手里只留了一笔 ETH 多单。名义仓位是 17000 枚 ETH，价值约 4325 万美元，清算价估算在 2493 美元附近。注意哦，4325 万是仓位面值，不是他的本金。之前一周浮亏一度冲到 844 万美元，一路减仓、被强平，最后就剩这一根独苗了。 我自己看这种账户会有种很复杂的感觉。不是幸灾乐祸，是那种"如果换成我，我会不会也在同一个位置做同样的选择"的后怕。重杠杆最可怕的从来不是第一笔亏损，而是亏完之后不甘心，把剩下的筹码全压在一个方向上，指望一次反弹把所有错误抹平。 现在市场在交易什么？表面是 ETH 能不能守住 2500 这个心理关口，实际上是在交易"还有多少高杠杆多头没被清掉"。这种巨鲸的清算价挂在 2493，意味着它本身就成了一个被市场盯上的靶子。ETH 一旦往下插针到那个区间，强平会释放出额外的卖压，然后可能触发更多类似位置的止损，形成一段短促$NEAR has hit a new high again. A few days ago, when NEAR was priced at 4.8, I already said that the $ZEC whale is very likely to manipulate NEAR, and the manipulation method is exactly the same. Today, the price has rebounded 25% from the position I called out. Anyone who followed this move is making money. Many people don't fully understand my trading logic and market interpretation, so today I want to explain it to everyone.
NEAR's competitor is $ZAMA, and UNI's competitor is AERO. These projects are ones I have mentioned frequently in the community. You can also see the logic behind my calls: when a project's price is too high in the short term, I actually avoid calling it. Instead, I direct attention to its competitor. For example, when NEAR was priced at 5.6 and ZAMA was low, I told everyone that if you want to buy now, just buy ZAMA directly. Later, ZAMA rebounded to around 0.09, and NEAR dropped to about 4.6. So, a few days ago when I analyzed this sector again, I told everyone to focus on NEAR in the short term. It's that simple: all projects are good, but prices differ in the short term. We need to assess if the price is high and then reevaluate whether to enter.
The same logic applies to UNI and AERO. When UNI was priced at 9.7, I definitely didn't advise entering; I said to buy AERO directly. Recently, UNI has dropped to around 7 $XAUT
Not every crypto asset is about chasing fast pumps.
XAUT is a gold-backed token designed to track the value of physical gold. That makes gold prices, the US dollar, and interest-rate expectations important factors to watch.
If gold strengthens, XAUT may benefit. If gold pulls back, the token can feel that pressure too.
Keep in mind that token prices can also be affected by liquidity, trading spreads, and platform conditions.
Understand what you're holding before making a move.
#XAUT 🔥Oil prices retreat! BTC and gold see bottom support opportunities $BTC $BZ
Core logic: Oil price decline brings positive impact to risk assets
1. Energy news disturbance
Rumors of a ceasefire at Russian-Ukrainian energy facilities have led to a rapid reduction in crude oil risk premiums. Trump disclosed agreements related to Russian oil supply and diesel, and the market expects easing pressure on energy supply.
⚠️Key point: Neither Russia nor Ukraine has officially confirmed a ceasefire; the news carries significant uncertainty.
2. Profit-taking at high levels
Previously, Middle East conflicts and attacks on oil tankers pushed oil prices up. Brent crude oil surged to $105.6 per barrel in early trading on October 12 but quickly fell back, with funds taking profits at the high.
The decline in oil prices benefits BTC and gold, providing bottom support for these two major assets.
Today the US Treasury market is closed; subsequent BTC and gold trends will depend on US Treasury yield pricing.
Market focus is on the CPI data on the 14th, which will directly affect interest rate hike expectations! I came across two recruitment posts from the core developers of Dogecoin in the community. Guess what they're hiring for—native Japanese speakers to help proofread document translations. No coding required, no technical knowledge needed, just good Japanese.
I laughed for a long time when I saw this. A cryptocurrency project recruiting people to translate documents, and specifically looking for Japanese translators. The scene is just too cute.
After laughing, I thought seriously about it. When a project starts caring about document translation, it means it’s beginning to take "users" seriously. It’s not just serving English speakers, not just for people who understand technology. It wants Japanese people to also understand how to use it.
Later, I saw another post: Dogecoin’s core developers are recruiting people for various roles—documentation, translation, community management, and more. A decentralized community project doesn’t rely on paying salaries to hire people; it relies on volunteers stepping up to work. The fact that people are willing to work means they care. The foundation of the $DOGE community is stronger than many imagine. Spot ETF data situation:
Bitcoin saw a net outflow of about $680 million last week, marking the first outflow after three consecutive weeks of inflows, while the second largest also experienced an outflow of $540 million, indicating a phase of capital rotation.
The core reasons remain the usual three: rising US Treasury yields, strengthening oil prices, and a stronger US dollar.
The situation may become more complex going forward; the existing on-exchange funds can no longer drive new trends, which will instead be dominated by inflation data and spot trading volume! There is little short-term participation value, so gradually wait for mid- to long-term buying opportunities at lower levels.#Ethereum spot ETF net outflow of $542 million last week
[Old Leek Observation] Is BlackRock about to run away?
Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of about $542 million last week, with funds flowing out for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling about $697 million.
What’s more noteworthy is that BlackRock’s ETHA product alone saw an outflow of about $477 million, accounting for nearly 90% of the market’s weekly net outflow.
This indicates that the fund withdrawal is not evenly distributed across all products. But don’t rush to conclude that institutions are collectively bearish: ETF fund flows reflect the net result of subscriptions and redemptions, which does not mean all funds are actively selling coins, nor can one judge a change in Ethereum’s long-term logic based on just one week’s data.
I’m more focused on two signals going forward:
First, whether ETF outflows will continue to expand;
Second, even if ETF outflows persist, whether the ETH spot price can hold steady.
If funds keep withdrawing and prices keep weakening, it means buying pressure is under stress; if outflows start to narrow but prices hold steady, the market may already be absorbing this selling pressure. $ETH $MAGIC ✨FIL surges with increased volume! Supply contraction brings bullish opportunities
FIL 4H | Current price 1.2430
Resistance: previous high 1.2769
Support: 1.2297
The chart shows a strong bullish candlestick with price rising above all short-term EMA lines, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Holding above 1.2769 can extend the bullish trend; if it falls below 1.2297, a short-term pullback and consolidation phase may occur.
News: Filecoin's six-year vesting period is nearing completion, reducing annual token release by 68 million, with supply contraction bringing positive expectations.
$BTC $ETH $FILOriginally, I had already complained to my friends about this week's market, but I have to take back my words, a bit awkward. $RAY This short position was not in vain. Yesterday afternoon, before the market fully started, I saw RAY's rebound was weak, no one was buying on the rise, the high short structure was still intact.
Shorted at 2.4687, now at 2.4113, +46.5% in hand. Feeling good, brothers.
Taking profits on 80% first, leaving 20% with the stop loss at the cost price, if it continues to drop, let the profits run. Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair with pullbacks.
For those who haven't entered yet, don't rush, chasing shorts can easily get taught by a rebound, wait for a new structure to appear. There are still opportunities, don't be anxious.
$BTC $XRP Total unrealized profit +14.6U. Thanks to ETH's godlike performance, the account was dragged back from hell to earth!
🌟 $ETH: Absolute MVP! Opened at 2,501.22, current price 2,563.64, 20X long position, wildly earned +62.43U (+49.92%). A strong rally saved the day, forced liquidation at 2,386, still holding steady, let's see if it can hit 2600!
🌧️ $BTC: Crazy bleeding! Opened at 82,544.12, current price 83,984.01, 20X short position, huge loss -43.19U (-34.88%). Shorting got violently squeezed, all profits swallowed, forced liquidation at 86,333, gritting teeth and holding on.
🍂 $TRX: Half dead. Opened at 0.3353, current price 0.3322, 20X long position, floating loss -4.64U (-18.49%). Continuous slow decline, still one breath away from forced liquidation at 0.3208, playing dead with eyes closed.
One profit and two losses, all carried by ETH. Thanks to the market maker's mercy for not killing the position, good morning brothers, go have some hot food!👇
$BTC $ETH $TRX
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Microsoft CEO Nadella: Treat AI as an internal risk and be ready to hit the emergency stop at any time
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella published a long article advocating treating AI models as internal enterprise security risks. Even if the model has no malicious intent, it can make mistakes or be exploited by attackers. Especially when it can read sensitive data or perform critical operations on behalf of others, enterprises cannot rely solely on the security promises of model vendors.
He demands separating the model from the scheduling task Harness (Agent execution framework). What data the model can read and what tools it can call must be controlled by external systems. Every critical operation should leave tamper-proof records that are easy for humans to review. He also requires transparency of the model's chain of thought (the displayed reasoning process) but admits that this content may not be reliable.
The toughest requirement is to assume from deployment that the model may be compromised and to isolate it accordingly. Authorized personnel must be able to pause or shut it down anytime while the Agent is executing tasks, effectively installing an "emergency brake." The model cannot audit its own behavior, and enterprises must continuously test for failures and attacks and disclose incidents promptly.
Microsoft announced this month that the MXC isolation tool is officially available on Windows. It restricts the files and networks the Agent can access through external policies.$FIL whale, come out, I promise I won't beat you to death.
Six years, I've held this thing from faith to doubting life, unlocking, unlocking, unlocking, and only now is it almost over. But the benefits didn't come to me; first, let me show you a big bullish candle.
My first reaction wasn't happiness, but disbelief. Are they trying to trick me into taking the bag again?
An elder in the group said, "The bad news is fully priced in and turns into good news," and after hearing that, I got even more anxious. I've heard that phrase more than ten times in the past few years, and every time after the bad news was fully priced in, I was still at the peak.
No explanations, no calls. Brothers stuck in the bag, take note yourself. I'll go make a cup of tea to calm my nerves. $FIL Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$RSR large sell order cost decreased. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale sell dropped from 0.84% to 0.61%.
$ZRO large buy order cost decreased. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale buy dropped from 0.56% to 0.48%.
$S after order amplification, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.13%/0.13%, for 100,000 scale is 0.59%/0.53%.Here is a short-term long position 📈 trading opportunity:
A couple of days ago, #BTC made a fake breakdown, then recovered back inside the range
There is a high probability it will form an AMD pattern
The liquidity above is still there
⚠️ Entry suggestion:
$82500---$83600 to open long positions 📈📈
Stop loss: $80500
Take profit: $86000
It is expected to break the previous high, hit the liquidity above, and then pull back downwardThe change column is green, but the price has retreated
$WLD's performance in the afternoon makes me lower my expectations a bit. The price is around 0.554, still up about 0.8% in 24 hours, but compared to around 0.579 last night, it has actually fallen about 4.3%.
This is why you can't just look at the change column. The 24-hour increase compares to a day ago; whether the price has held since last night is another matter.
I'm more concerned whether it can climb back up after this retreat. That previous rise did happen, but now the gains have been given back, so the short-term assessment must be adjusted accordingly, and we can't keep using last night's optimism.
$BICO is still weak, so I won't raise its ranking for now. It fell about 2.4% in the past 24 hours and about 11.8% in the past week, with the price around 0.0186.
The daily drop doesn't look too dramatic, but the cumulative pressure over the week is significant. I'll first see if the decline can stop. Occasional rebounds are not hard to come by; the difficult part is not letting the price be pushed down again afterward. If that step isn't achieved, it's better to watch more and act less.
For $HYPE, I want to try a different way of observing: watch its reaction to the overall market's rise. If the market goes up, it lags behind; if the market dips slightly, it falls quickly, then there's no need to rush to raise expectations.
Conversely, if it can keep up with the rise and hold progress during pullbacks, then there's reason to improve the evaluation. This is a better test of short-term strength than prematurely assuming a certain round number will definitely be broken through.Whales are selling BTC to buy $ETH! Ethereum retracing to 2550 may trigger short liquidations
Direction: Long (buy the dip)
Entry range: 2540–2555
Take profit target: around 2650
Personal view:
Whales sold 410 BTC to switch positions and bought 14,300 ETH, worth $36.14 million, signaling a bullish outlook; short-term funds continue to flow in, with a 1D net inflow of 583 million and a 3D net inflow of 453 million, indicating rebound momentum remains. However, Ethereum Foundation-related wallets transferred 4,393 ETH to Kraken, posing potential selling pressure; heavy short liquidations are concentrated between 2600-2650, and breaking through this range could trigger a short squeeze.
Basis for position:
Flow Score +14, short-term funds are bullish, but 7D/15D still show net outflows, indicating a rebound market; price rebounded from the 2405 low, lightly long on the 2540-2555 support zone, aiming to play the breakout of the 2600 short liquidation zone. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $SNDK chose to go long on SanDisk over Erbing this morning; Erbing went up, but SanDisk went down. Now it's almost liquidated. Seeing how sharply the A-shares are falling today, it feels like the chance of liquidation today is quite high.#阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点
Key points to watch in the earnings report:
Don't be misled by the current quarter's revenue and profit; the focus must be on forward-looking order indicators and structural analysis. The price per lithography machine is high, with delivery cycles lasting 12 to 24 months, so the current quarter's revenue and net profit reflect the fulfillment of orders from the past 1 to 2 years. New orders and backlog of undelivered orders are the true barometers for performance and stock price trends over the next 1 to 3 years.
The ratio of EUV to DUV in net orders. A surge in EUV orders indicates strong demand from advanced process customers; a high proportion of DUV reflects more on mature process and expansion pace in the Chinese market.
ASML usually releases multi-year revenue and gross margin scenario targets (e.g., outlook for 2030). Whether management reiterates, raises, or lowers this long-term range during each earnings call greatly impacts valuation benchmarks.
On the day of the announcement, you need to focus on:
1. Capturing the quick report: compare Net Bookings, Revenue, Gross Margin with market consensus;
2. Reading the investor presentation: review charts on Logic/Memory and regional sales proportions;
3. Listening to/reading the earnings call: note qualitative answers on geopolitical policies, delivery bottlenecks, and long-term guidance.
$ASML Don't rush to judge the top; first see who is buying.
This round of increase is not driven by everyone buying.
Bitcoin overnight returned above 83,000.
Data doesn't lie.
In 13 trading days, net inflow was only 232 million —
while on September 21 alone, 999 million came in, and on the 22nd, another 714.8 million. After that, it went quiet.
On September 30, net outflow was 148.7 million, breaking the continuous rise. October 7 and 8 saw the two largest net outflows in 13 days, totaling 731.2 million.
More importantly, who is buying.
On Friday, net inflow was 21.13 million; BlackRock's IBIT alone took in 22.38 million, Fidelity's FBTC had an outflow of 3.58 million, and 9 out of 12 funds had zero flow. IBIT accounts for 63% of total assets.
This is not institutions buying. This is one company buying.
The price has already risen, yet no funds have confirmed it.
Don't rush to judge the top or bottom; wait for the next opening to see if the money returns.
Can one fund revive Bitcoin's rebound?Ledger’s update points to a channel-control problem more than a proven platform-wide breach: confirmed cases involve CryptoBilis-sold devices, while direct sales and Ledger systems show no signs of compromise. The key unresolved risk is traceability across reseller inventory, because suspected losses and the implant’s wider link remain unverified.
#LedgerResellerSecurity Checked the market around noon, $BTC around 84,000, $ETH around 2560, both up, but honestly this looks more like a short squeeze — shorts dominate the 160 million liquidations across the network, funding rates are close to zero, neither bulls nor bears are heavily committed. I usually don't see this kind of market as a reversal.
$BTC is now stuck just below the 84,500-85,500 mark; if it can't break above, it will keep oscillating; the first support line is at 82,000-83,000, losing that would be concerning. $ETH is a bit weaker, with exchanges seeing net inflows these days, US buying is weakening, and Bitfinex margin longs just hit a four-year high. This kind of structure makes chasing the rally risky and prone to getting hit from both sides.
The real test is Wednesday night, with September CPI and the Fed Chair's speech. I won't make moves before the data comes out. My view: don't chase the rebound; if $BTC falls below 82,000, I'll admit I was wrong; only above 85,500 can we talk about a reversal. #BTC #ETH
What about you? Are you staying out before CPI, or have you already positioned?
Risk reminder: The above is just my personal market notes and does not constitute investment advice. Don't get carried away whether prices rise or fall.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $ZEC $1,327 | Shorts just got liquidated for $5 million, whale withdrawals and ETF redemptions are still battling
After Zcash retraced about 28% from the late September high of $1,698, it bounced back today near $1,327, up over 6% in 24 hours. In the past hour, it surged from $1,277 to $1,317, shorts were liquidated for $5.03 million, with zero long liquidations — a short squeeze pushing the price up.
But whales and ETFs are still doing their own thing. A certain whale has withdrawn a total of 26,070 ZEC from Binance and Kraken in the past few minutes, worth $31.93 million. On the other side, the Grayscale ZCSH ETF saw a net outflow of $93.56 million in a single week, with assets under management dropping from a peak of $979 million to $751 million.
The NU7 testnet has been activated, with the mainnet target set for November 5. Block time has been reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling confirmation speed. Developers will decide the mainnet activation height on October 20.
Key levels: $1,346 is recent resistance; only a break above confirms a breakout. $1,210 is the critical support line; a break below weakens the structure.
Discuss in the comments: whale withdrawals vs. ETF redemptions, which do you trust?👇
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 This chart shows the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Z-score since 2019, an indicator that measures how far the Bitcoin price deviates from the 200-day moving average (200DMA, blue line). Values above +1.5 historically indicate an overheat area, while values below -1 to -1.5 indicate an accumulation area. Currently, the indicator is around 0, rising again from the -1 area at the beginning of 2026 and breaking through the downtrend line formed since 2021. The pattern observed from the three times the downtrend line was broken (2$S The most dangerous misconception right now is equating "strong trend" directly with "continuing to chase is safe."
Current price 0.06193, 24h +28.35%; 1h slightly strong, 4h slightly strong, volume about 0.45 times the average volume of the last 20 bars.
I break it down into two scenarios: A, breaking through 0.06901, confirming the short-term structure; B, falling below 0.04712, original judgment invalid, next observation point shifts to 0.03702.
No preset answers, just watching which condition happens first. Which scenario do you think is more likely to occur first, A or B?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle Bull.Altcoin divergence, $SENT becomes a short target! 20x short position floating profit +160.24%.
Logic: After the initial rebound to 0.02309, volume was insufficient, using the overall sentiment decline to short, falling to 0.02124.
The real background is that market funds rotate quickly, small coins lack sustained support, and high levels are prone to pullbacks. Currently, bears dominate, but 20x leverage is risky. The market may test 0.02 then fluctuate.
In terms of operation, reduce positions on dips to lock in profits, keep the rest at breakeven, those who missed the short should not chase it, wait for a rebound to reassess, risk control is paramount. #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 $W $BTC Crypto Circle Brief · October 12
A day when the shorts were slaughtered. BTC short squeeze rebound back to 84,000, $164 million in short positions vanished into thin air, short liquidations were 2.3 times the longs — this is not a bull attack, it's a short stampede.
But don't rush to call a bull market. ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of 485 million last week, hitting a three-month high; the rebound relies on opponents surrendering, not new money entering. 77,000 dollars is the real line between life and death; breaking below that is another story.
On the other side, Bitget lost 387.5 million to North Korean hackers, and the industry was stolen 1.26 billion in Q3 — crypto money is easier to steal than you think. The memory of the 10·10 flash crash a year ago is still fresh, BTC liquidity is fully revived, altcoins are still lying in the ICU, and spot volume is only one-third of what it was during the crash.
In a word: short term looks at the short squeeze, mid term looks at ETFs, long term depends on whether you can survive in the altcoin graveyard.
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 $BTC $ETH Midday Grand Slam: After my relentless efforts, I finally got all my positions neatly in the green!
Brothers, let me show you a miracle.
After these past few days of tireless work, I have finally achieved an epic feat: all 6 positions in my account are perfectly aligned, all floating at a loss!
$ZEC short position is down 77%, and I haven’t even climbed out of the $STRK pit from this morning before stepping right into the ZEC abyss. Plus, $ETH is getting hit on both long and short sides, with W and MINA joining the party. I proudly call myself the "most effective inverse indicator" on the entire network.
Let’s review my flawless operation:
The ZEC community voted 99.9% in favor of shortening block times, a whale dumped 31.93 million to take 26,000 ZEC, and shorts were liquidated for 44 million. With such a strong short squeeze signal, I stubbornly held my 1294.4 short position. STRK was the same this morning—while they’re pivoting to L1 quantum resistance, I opened a short at 0.1 and held on stubbornly. I’m not trading; I’m just handing money to the market makers.
What’s next?
No adding to positions, no illusions! I will definitely cut losses if ZEC hits 1400, and unconditionally stop loss if STRK hits 0.13. Survival is the most important.
Is there anyone worse off than me on the whole network? Report your floating losses so I can feel better!!
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 This move that dropped from the high point and then pulled back, I tend to see it as a liquidation of longs before the rise, rather than a trend reversal to bearish. If 80300 is the low point of this consolidation downtrend, measuring the equal distance upward, the next bullish target could reach above 93000. On the four-hour level, the current pattern is very similar to the previous move of the S&P 500. There, it first made a bottom V reversal, then accelerated upward, followed by a long period of sideways consolidation. After breaking out of the box, there was another volume-driven rise, but the space was smaller than the previous one. After the breakout, there was no straight acceleration; instead, it re-entered a correction phase, which made a new low and broke below the previous box top. The key is what happened afterward: after breaking down, it did not continue to accelerate downward but completed a liquidation, achieving a bear trap, then oscillated upward and made new highs. Bitcoin is following the same rhythm in this segment. The previous volume-driven rise was followed by a sideways consolidation box, which is somewhat diffuse, with highs breaking upward and lows breaking downward, but I still consider it a box. After the breakout, there was also a volume-accelerated move, with space slightly smaller than the previous one. The current correction also made a new low and broke below the previous box top—in other words, the box top did not complete a support-resistance flip and was directly broken. The resistance is now clear: the 0.618 retracement of this drop is between 83700 and 84500. The price has reached this range but has not formed a breakout yet. A bottom rebound does not equal trend continuation; only standing above and holding counts. The bearish path is not impossible. If 83700 this level... Brothers, pay attention, the two most important events of the week are coming: Wednesday night at 8:30 PM (Beijing time) the US September CPI, and Thursday at the same time the PPI. This wave directly tests the market's pricing of the Fed "hiking once more this year."
Currently, the market expects the overall CPI month-on-month to be 0.6%, core 0.2%; year-on-year overall about 3.6-3.7%. Energy price increases are already priced in; the key is whether core services and housing can hold steady. If the core exceeds expectations, especially if it fails to decline for several consecutive months, although the October meeting will most likely remain unchanged, the probability of a rate hike in December will rapidly increase, and US bonds, the dollar, and gold will all react noticeably.
Conversely, if the core is below expectations or even falls to around 0.1%, the narrative of "hiking once more" will loosen, and risk assets will have a chance to catch a breath.
Don't underestimate the PPI; if upstream prices remain firm, the pace of CPI decline will be slower. Operationally, it is recommended to reduce leverage as much as possible before the data and avoid betting too heavily on direction. You can prepare conditional orders: if the core exceeds expectations, lean towards the dollar/US bond yields; if below expectations, focus on gold and growth stocks' rebound opportunities.
Remember, recently Fed officials' tone has been generally hawkish, and the dot plot also supports another move; the data is just a catalyst, not a game changer. Positioning is king; don't get led by a single data point. Volatility will definitely be significant this week; survive first, then talk about making money. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 A V-shaped rebound after the drop indicates that there are buyers at the bottom.
This V-shaped rebound after the decline is different from just sideways consolidation at the bottom. Sideways consolidation usually leads to another drop, while a V-shaped rebound shows there is demand to buy at the bottom, with buyers stepping in as soon as the downtrend slows.
Is there still a chance for 75000? Yes, but the probability is low. Unless a negative event pushes it down or panic returns, it’s hard to break below the previous low.
Are you waiting for 75000, or are you already on board? $BTC $ETH $STRK #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 500U Challenge to 1 Million [300x] | Day 30
Initial capital: 500U
Current net value: 649.48U
Profit and loss: 149.48U (total) | +0.1U (today)
Profit rate: +29.88% (total) | +0.02% (today)
------------------------------------------------
Current first phase: 500 -> 1000U
Is it hard for 500U to become 1 million? Believe in the power of compound interest, it only takes 8.2 doublings, the path unfolds as: 500 -> 1000 -> 2000 -> 4000 -> 8000 -> 16000 -> 32000 -> 64000 -> 128000 -> 1 million RMB;
So time is a good thing, you can earn less but must earn steadily;
What I value most is: preserving principal and compound growth;
About yesterday's activity:
Bought long position on XAU at 4089, closed long at 4214.7;
Continued holding long positions on SPCX, GOOL, MRVL, MU;
Weekend volatility was low, except for a small loss on a minor altcoin trade, no other operations;
It's Monday, waiting quietly for the US stock market to open, MU announced a 35.1 billion stock buyback plan effective after December 9, will the US market continue to adjust or go up? Can it hold 1000?
The above is my personal trading record and does not constitute investment advice! #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC 🚨 Damn! Bitcoin repeatedly tests 84300! The highs and lows are gradually moving up, bulls are gathering strength, is a breakout just ahead?
Brothers, the 1-hour chart is very clear—BTC is forming a standard upward structure.
📌 Technical breakdown:
First, the highs and lows are gradually rising. From 83,000 to 84,300, each pullback low is higher than the last, and each rebound high is also climbing. This is not random fluctuation; bulls are slowly taking control of the market.
Second, 83500 has completed a role reversal. Previously resistance, it has now been repeatedly tested and held, turning resistance into support—a classic signal of trend continuation.
Third, 84300 is the last gate. A breakout and hold above this level will open a volume vacuum above, directly unlocking upward space targeting 86,000-88,000. If repeatedly blocked, it will continue to consolidate between 83,500-84,300.
📌 Trading strategy:
Buy on a stable pullback near 83,500 with proper risk management and position control. Do not chase highs or overleverage; wait for confirmation signals. A volume breakout above 84,300 can be followed with light positions, targeting 86,000-88,000.
Sideways movement is not weakness but accumulation. Not dropping when it should is strength; breakout is just a matter of time.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Brothers, I just spotted some on-chain data, pretty interesting. This guy Wang Chun transferred 2,160 $ETH to Binance in one go, which amounts to about 5.52 million USD, and it was done in two transactions: one for 1,150 and another for 1,010.
Veteran traders all know that large on-chain transfers into exchanges usually mean trouble—either preparing to dump and cash out or adjusting positions for some move. Wang, as the founder of a big mining pool, is definitely a seasoned insider. Sending this much ETH to Binance now—could he be sensing a different market trend?