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Michael Saylor and Strive CEO Matt Cole simultaneously hinted on X that they might continue buying Bitcoin.
What's interesting is not "someone is bullish again," but that the BTC reserve race among publicly listed companies is still ongoing: when prices pull back, they don't consider fleeing but rather how to raise more funds.
However, before the official filing documents are released, this remains just a preview and the hints cannot be taken as completed transactions. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Bitcoin has started to rally,
and Ethereum is set to follow closely.
Let's take a look at the recent 24-hour liquidation data; the amounts are probably significant.
Currently, the main market players are aggressively forcing shorts to cover.
First, let's look at ETH:
1-hour liquidations total 4.56 million, with shorts accounting for 4.18 million.
4-hour liquidations total 12.34 million, with shorts at 10.51 million.
12-hour liquidations total 25.37 million, with shorts at 19.10 million.
Over 24 hours, total liquidations reached 52.92 million, with shorts as high as 42.41 million.
Long liquidations are just over 10 million, almost negligible.
Now for BTC:
1-hour liquidations total 3.35 million, with shorts at 3.21 million.
4-hour liquidations total 8.93 million, with shorts at 7.74 million.
12-hour liquidations total 14.07 million, with shorts at 9.73 million.
Over 24 hours, total liquidations reached 49.82 million, with shorts at 42.68 million.
Comparing these time segments, the conclusion is clear. Over 24 hours, the overall liquidation scale for ETH (52.92 million) slightly exceeds BTC (49.82 million).
But looking at the 12-hour segment, ETH's short liquidations (19.10 million) are twice that of BTC (9.73 million), indicating that in the past half day, ETH's rally has been more intense, with shorts being squeezed harder.
Once this short squeeze starts, it usually doesn't stop immediately.
The bullish cycle is expected to last for the next 1 to 2 weeks. For ETH, watch for a breakout above the previous high at 2565, targeting the 2700 to 2750 range. For BTC, after stabilizing at 84000, the trend is toward 86000 to 87000. The overall outlook remains bullish. $CRCL has been steadily rising, what should I do, should I chase the long? When it was 84.3, I didn't take it seriously, I said wait a bit more and then fell asleep, woke up at 85, I said don't panic, then suddenly 86...87, OK I opened at 85.61 here, next door my average price has already been pulled up to 86.3. Hesitating is really frustrating. This is not a rebound; it's more like CPR for my short position account, right? During the intraday plunge, $XDP's rebound was weak, volume didn't keep up, no one caught the rise, the bears kept pressing down, and the high position pressure was obvious. While others were guessing the bottom, I was just waiting for a pullback to short.
Don't lose patience in the consolidation and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair over drawdowns.
I opened a short near 0.02569, nailed the timing. Now at 0.02208, the return is +282.6%. The earlier part was really dragging, but coming out of it feels great. Took 80% of the major profits off the table first, kept 20% as cost protection; if it continues to drop, let the profits run. This wave was worth the wait, feeling good brothers, but don't get carried away.
For those who haven't entered yet, don't rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next signal to move. The market isn't short of opportunities, it's patience that's lacking. If you miss it, don't chase; wait for the next shot, I'll notify you immediately.
$SOL $XRP Monday, 2026.10.12
Key macro information this week: Tuesday ADP employment, Wednesday CPI, Thursday PPI, and one more interest rate decision in October. However, the market currently largely expects the existing interest rate to remain unchanged. Data will still influence the Federal Reserve's decision and also affect the investment market, so it needs attention.
Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net outflow of 678 million last week. Despite this, the US stock market did not experience a significant drop. The outflow from Bitcoin ETFs is still considerable, likely representing real funds moving out for risk aversion.
SK Hynix and Samsung seem to have recently decoupled from the overall AI sector or storage sector linkage. These two companies hold a very large weight in the Korean stock market, so the Korean market has basically also decoupled from AI stocks. The recent trend can be described as very poor, a mess after the frenzy.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin did not show a second dip over the weekend; instead, it presented a three-day consecutive rebound. The current rebound has reached 84,000, encountering strong resistance. There have been three small-scale attempts to break higher but all were blocked. However, the price has not been pushed down by bears. It still depends on the real capital flow in the US stock market tonight. I think it is very likely to reverse the weekend's trend and show a second dip after hitting resistance at 84,000.
Altcoins have been somewhat chaotic recently, mostly driven by Layer 2 networks. This is probably related to strk's announcement of quantum-resistant security and an independent L1, which triggered a collective surge in many L2 networks. But I still believe this situation is not a good opportunity for speculative altcoins.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 58 (Neutral) 截至 2026 年 10 月 10 日，BTC 收于 82,928 美元，ETH 收于 2,505 美元。过去一周，BTC 下跌 2.15%，ETH 下跌 6.82%。 BTC 的账面盈利仍较充足，ETH 则同时出现盈利收缩、交易所存币增加和偏多信号减少，近期走势更弱。 过去 30 天，BTC 累计上涨 8.29%，ETH 上涨 2.71%。两者都经历了上涨后的回落，ETH 回吐的涨幅更多。 按币上一次链上移动时的价格估算，BTC 中仍处于盈利状态的比例，一周内从 74.7% 降至 69.2%；ETH 从 62.8% 降至 54.7%。 相当于每 100 枚币里，BTC 约有 69 枚仍在盈利，ETH 约有 55 枚。ETH 已接近盈亏各半，最近一周减少的盈利份额也更大。 BTC 的整体链上平均成本约为 53,857 美元，价格仍高出约 54.0%；ETH 的整体链上平均成本约为 2,268 美元，价格仅高出约 10.4%。ETH 距离整体成本更近，下跌正在更快地压缩剩余利润。 BTC 短期持有人的平均成本约为 7.44 万美元，价格仍高出约 11.4%，近期持币者的平均账面利润尚在。$CFX short-term reversal, why hasn't the 4-hour given up yet?
$CFX 24h -7.97%, current price 0.06362. On the surface, it's just a rise and fall, but the real conflict lies in the timeframes: 1-hour is weak, 4-hour is strong. When two charts give opposite answers, the least useful approach is to pick the one you like and believe it completely.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 1.41% away from the 1-hour support at 0.06272, and about 14.43% away from resistance at 0.0728. Only by comparing these two distances can you see which side requires more evidence. Looking only at the price change easily mistakes the space already traveled as space yet to start.
The opposing side also has a clear invalidation line. Breaking below the 1-hour support at 0.06272 means the short-term support has failed the test; if it continues to break the 4-hour support at 0.04753, the original strong or recovery judgment must be rewritten. You can hold your view, but you can't pretend not to see when the evidence changes.
It’s easier to understand this market move as equipment acceptance: running without load doesn’t count as completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to the conclusion. Write your view as a condition, so if you’re wrong, you know where the mistake is. Which signal would you rather wait for to judge: the short cycle has already led the reversal, or the larger cycle still has stronger constraints? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.Base co-founder Jesse Pollak talked about tokenization at Token2049, emphasizing that the focus is not on stablecoins.
He means that tokenized stocks and non-USD stablecoins are what will drive the next super cycle.
I think many people agree with this direction. USD stablecoins have already taken off, but central banks of various countries will never give up their currency sovereignty. Euro, Canadian dollar, Naira, Indonesian rupiah, and others are indeed not fully priced yet.
Base has already integrated 21 currencies and 32 stablecoins. They started early.
But tokenized stocks are even more impressive. In the past year, circulation volume grew from 400 million to 3.3 billion, an 8x increase. Coinbase just launched on Base six weeks ago, now daily trading volume is 70 million to 100 million, with 50 stocks listed; Pollak said they aim for 250 stocks by the end of the month.
Trading is available 24/7, sales settle instantly, and transfers can be done directly on-chain. Traditional brokers can’t offer this.
He also talked about 2027: continuing expansion in trading, payments, and financing, plus building machine payment infrastructure. The logic is that in the next one or two years, more financial activities will be run by AI agents, and Base wants to be that underlying pipeline.
Tokenized stocks, non-USD stablecoins, and AI payments currently seem like three separate things, but connected they form a line: asset on-chain, payment settlement, and machine automated execution.
Whoever first connects these three links smoothly will own the next wave.#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 In brief
This "energy ceasefire" is currently a verbal ceasefire—no text, no confirmation from Russia, and Russia was still fighting on the day of the announcement. Oil prices only dropped less than 1%, indicating the market did not buy into it at all. What’s really worth trading is not the news itself, but its linkage with Wednesday’s CPI.
1. Why didn’t oil prices move much (BZ -0.7%)?
- The ceasefire has no agreement text, no verification mechanism, Russia is silent, Ukraine says "still bombed after announcement"—the market directly discounts its credibility.
- The Middle East is hedging: Houthis attacked Saudi airports, and oil tankers were attacked again near Hormuz over the weekend. The slight supply expectation released by the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is supported by Middle East shipping risks.
- A netizen’s comment "Can oil prices keep falling just because of a single sentence from Huang Mao?" hits the point: a ceasefire without ground verification can only cause short-term emotional disturbance to oil prices, not a trend reversal.
One-sentence trading idea:
- Don’t treat the "energy ceasefire" as a reason to short crude oil—it’s too fragile, and the Middle East is providing support.
- But you can treat it as a marginal positive that "CPI won’t get worse": oil prices steady at the current level, the gasoline rebound in Wednesday’s CPI is one-off and does not justify the Fed taking action in October.
- The real explosive point still returns to the core CPI month-on-month at 8:30 PM Wednesday; the energy news is just peripheral background.As of October 12, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around **$2,542**, up 1.7% in the past 24 hours, attempting to recover from the sell-off near last week's low of $2,405. Previously, ETH experienced a sharp drop from above $2,700, triggering about $165 million in leveraged long liquidations, which once pressured market sentiment.
The most critical immediate support range is $2,470–$2,480, serving as the first line of defense between bulls and bears in the short term. If this level is breached, the core support below will directly target the $2,400–$2,420 area, which is the lowest point of this decline. On-chain liquidation data shows that if ETH falls below $2,412, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach as high as $635 million, making this price level the "lifeline" for bulls.
On the resistance side, the **$2,520** neckline is a key breakout point; if it closes above this level persistently, it could open up upward potential to $2,640. It is worth noting that the US spot ETH ETF recently saw a single-day net outflow exceeding $200 million, with institutional funds continuously withdrawing, adding pressure to the rebound. The fate of $2,470 will determine whether ETH continues its recovery or tests the bottom again in the short term. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
Seeing a bunch of different accounts on Planet Dynamics using the same script to hype not touching altcoins and to stick to certain mainstream ones. Looks like they're trying to get you to take the fall.$ETH is really driving me into depression this time.
Long position at 2716, too hasty, missed the sesame, and lost the watermelon too. Yesterday when it held steady at 2500, I felt something was off, and then it suddenly surged at night. Now I can barely hold on.
Can it still drop? Brothers, I’m about to break. Did Huang Mao release some news again?
$BTC is the same, directly breaking through 84000, with no pressure from positions trying to break even above, all shorts getting liquidated. Every rally is very steady, like climbing stairs. Won’t the US market tonight push to 85000?
It has rebounded all the way from 80351 without any decent pullback. Such a strong trend, is the bull market really about to start?
I didn’t bottom-fish, should I reverse and chase longs now? Feels like it’s already too late. Chase and risk being the bag holder, don’t chase and risk missing the flight.
My thought: don’t chase highs, don’t add shorts. Wait for a decent pullback, confirm support before moving. This wave of shorts got swept too hard, the sentiment hasn’t cooled down yet, don’t make decisions at the emotional peak.
Control your hands, wait for signals. Don’t let one trade blow up your mindset.
For personal record only, not investment advice.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 U.S. stock market is closed today, $BTC touched $84,351 before the CPI release.
Current market shows BTC at $84,222, up 1.3% in 24 hours.
Twice in the morning session it was held below $84,000, then in the afternoon it pushed the daily high to $84,351, surpassing the early morning $84,200 as well.
With U.S. stock market closed today, there is temporarily no new daily net inflow data from ETFs to verify.
Net inflow on October 9 was about $21.1 million, IBIT bought about $22.4 million; from the 5th to the 9th, the total net outflow is still about $679 million.
Wednesday also has the U.S. CPI; before the data, many positions are reluctant to go full, so volatility is often compressed in advance or suddenly amplified.
Contract fee rate is about +0.001%, open interest decreased about 1.1% in the last 24 hours, leverage hasn't surged, indicating the market is still waiting for the next move.
In the next two days, first watch if $84,000 can hold, this is the first line to see if the afternoon breakout has support.
If it holds, before CPI the price will mostly continue to fluctuate around $84,000-$85,000.
If it falls, priority is to look back to support around $83,500, rather than rushing to short.
Before the data release, contract positions should be light rather than heavy. OKB is on hold: the latest price is 127.06, approaching the 127.10 resistance, but the volume has not yet supported a breakout.
The price is above the 4/4 EMA, and the local trend remains strong; the volume ratio for the last complete 4-hour period is 0.76, with trading below average, so this resistance cannot yet be considered broken.
Only if it continuously holds above 127.10 with subsequent volume support over a full 4-hour period will the outlook turn bullish. Touching resistance intraday does not count as confirmation.
Only if it continuously falls below 126.55 and the rebound cannot recover will the outlook turn bearish, and the local strength judgment above the moving averages will also become invalid. $OKB Hôm nay là ngày thứ 51 tôi bán khống ZEC, còn 39 ngày nữa đến mục tiêu ba tháng, không ngờ nó lại có thể hồi phục V, hơi muốn gia tăng vị thế bán khống!!! Giá ZEC hiện tại là 1333, tăng 4,47% trong 24 giờ, sau khi tăng lên 1348 thì giảm nhẹ. Đường EMA chu kỳ 15 phút đang xếp theo xu hướng tăng, giá ổn định trên đường trung bình; RSI6 đạt 67,71, gần ngưỡng mua quá mức, động lực tăng có phần chậm lại; MACD vẫn giữ cột đỏ, DIFF liên tục ở trên DEA, KDJ ba đường vẫn ở vị trí cao. Kỳ vọng nâng cấp chHYPE is on hold: latest price 87.85, close to the 88.11 resistance, but this rise still lacks confirmation from increased volume.
Both highs and lows are rising synchronously, local upward movement has a basis, so it’s not time to be bearish directly. The previous full 4-hour period volume ratio was 0.74, with volume below average, not enough to support a price breakout of the current resistance.
Only if it continuously holds above 88.11 and the subsequent full 4-hour period shows increased volume can a bullish view be supported; intraday touches do not count as breakouts.
If it continuously breaks below 87.03, the local upward judgment fails, so maintain a wait-and-see stance; only if after breaking below, a rebound fails to reclaim 87.03 can a bearish view be supported. $HYPE Nvidia and Anthropic failed to acquire, Amazon negotiating $7 billion to buy Decart
The Wall Street Journal, citing informed sources, reported that Amazon is negotiating to acquire AI startup Decart. The potential deal is valued at about $7 billion and has not yet been finalized. Decart focuses on AI chip optimization software, enabling models to run faster and more cost-effectively on different chips. Its technology covers Nvidia GPUs, Google TPUs, and Amazon Trainium.
Founded in 2023, the company has seen acquisition rumors reverse several times. In August, Israeli media Calcalist revealed that Nvidia was close to acquiring Decart. Subsequently, other buyers intervened, and negotiations were halted. SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, was also speculated to be a potential buyer, but no reliable reports confirmed a formal offer.
Later, Anthropic considered acquiring Decart for about $6 billion and conducted due diligence. However, by September, Anthropic decided to withdraw for undisclosed reasons. Now Amazon has taken over negotiations, with a potential deal price higher than Decart's approximately $4 billion valuation from a May funding round.
Amazon and Decart have had prior cooperation. In May, Decart announced Amazon as a strategic customer. The two have already run the real-time video model Lucy 2 on Amazon's self-developed Trainium..."BTC in the Last Hour: The 84,200 Wall Hasn't Fallen, but 41.47 Million Short Positions Have Already Been Placed on the Trigger"
In the last hour, BTC has been narrowly oscillating between 83,900 and 84,268, just touching 84,276 before being pushed back near 84,100.
What happened? From early morning to late morning, BTC repeatedly tested the 83,500-84,200 range. A 140 BTC short position with 40x leverage was liquidated between 84,156-84,181, resulting in a loss of $239,000. Currently, there are still 41.47 million short positions and 13.14 million long positions approaching the liquidation line simultaneously, with pressure on both sides.
Why is this worth noting? The bears haven't fled. On October 7, a new wallet opened a 40x leveraged short position of 148.49 BTC on Hyperliquid, with a notional value of about $12.5 million. Whether this position is still open remains uncertain.
Which observation is supported? It looks more like a "tug-of-war within the liquidation zone" rather than a one-sided trend. Bears are holding above 84,000, bulls are waiting below 83,500, and neither side wants to make the first move.
What to watch? Whether 84,200 can be effectively broken. The bears have already set the trigger; it just needs that spark to ignite. $BTC The second day of barely surviving, yesterday it dipped to 0.0952, today it dipped to 0.0958, no buying pressure above, it drops right after the dip, 0.091 support is too strong, it just won't fall! Even short positions can't hold, if it keeps grinding like this, I'm going to go tighten some screws.On the eve of CPI, a whale is betting with a 13x short position! Wednesday will be a turning point
The real bombshell this week is the CPI data at 8:30 PM on Wednesday, don’t trade blindly!
ETFs have been continuously flowing out, institutions are withdrawing. The most outrageous thing is a whale opened a $32 million short position on Hyperliquid with 13x leverage, clearly betting on a data surprise. But yesterday the short position exploded to $78 million, and bulls are also squeezing.
BTC is currently priced at 84,000, with strong resistance at 85,000 above. Altcoins are flying wildly, NEAR and MAGIC are jumping up and down.
My attitude is simple: absolutely no heavy positions before CPI, regardless of long or short! Wait for the data to land and see the direction before making a move. Control your hands, protect your principal, don’t gamble your life at the exact second the data is released.
Do you think Wednesday’s CPI is bearish or bullish?
#BTC #ETH #CPI #FederalReserve TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced a while ago, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to the 2nm ramp diluting about 3 to 4 percentage points. Market consensus is around 66.5%, so holding near the upper end of the range would be good news.
The second hurdle is capital expenditure. In July, it was already raised from $52 to $56 billion up to $60 to $64 billion, so $64 billion is not a number waiting to be revised upward, but the current ceiling. Management previously said capital expenditure would be "significantly higher" over the next three years; this time, we need to see how much they say.
Regarding stock price, the ADR closed at $485.80 on 10/6, with this year's high at $487.47; the latest available close is $472.20 on 10/8.
If the price rises above $487 after the call, it means the market accepts the 2nm dilution and higher capital expenditure; if it falls below $472, it means gross margin or capital expenditure is below expectations.
Revenue has already exceeded expectations. Do you think this time the stock price will focus more on maintaining a 66% gross margin or on further upward revisions of capital expenditure?
$TSM $ASML $NVDA 🚨 $BTC + $ETH + $SOL + $ZEC: The liquidation map is laid out, but the real risks are buried in the data
The biggest variable this week isn’t technicals, it’s the imminent release of CPI and PPI. US CPI has already rebounded from 2.4% to 3.8%, and PPI is even more severe, jumping from 2.9% to 6.0%. Inflation is not dead; it’s accelerating. This means expectations for rate cuts will be repeatedly torn apart, and around each data release, the crypto market may experience phased pullbacks.
Don’t heavily bet on direction at this point. Below is a breakdown of the liquidation structure for the four coins; wait for the data to land before making moves.
🟠 $BTC | Current price 83,889
Above, 84,705 is a short concentration zone with about $29.23 million in short positions hanging there. Once broken through and buying follows, short covering will create a brief push, opening up upward extension space.
Below, 82,188 is a pain point for longs, with about $40.31 million in long liquidations. The scale below is larger than above, meaning if it really breaks down, the long liquidation chain reaction will be more intense than short squeezes. But “larger scale below” doesn’t mean “it will definitely drop first”—the market often uses fake breakouts to clear one side before reversing to harvest the other.
The $BTC futures market just went through a round of short squeezes; open interest has fallen from its peak, and the deleveraging structure is healthier than before. But in front of CPI/PPI, even a healthy structure can be pierced by one data point.
🔵 $ETH | Current price 2,544
Above 2,568, below 2,509. The liquidation scales on both sides are close, which is the most critical point.
$ETH’s liquidation heatmap often shows a "double wall squeeze" structure, with leverage densely stacked just above and below the current price, compressing price into a narrow liquidation corridor. This structure means: it sweeps shorts upward, then sweeps longs downward, hitting losses both ways—no one gets comfortable. ETH is the most prone to repeated spikes among the four coins, so don’t take sides prematurely in the middle.
🟣 $SOL | Current price 111.54
Above 113.37, about $5.22 million in short liquidations. Below 108.39, about $3.26 million in long liquidations.
$SOL has an independent narrative worth noting: the liquidation selling pressure from FTX/Alameda is nearing its end. As of mid-April, Alameda still holds about 3.5 million $SOL, worth roughly $300 million at current prices, and with a monthly release pace of about 197,000 tokens, the remaining chips will basically be cleared within next year. This means the “structural seller” weighing on $SOL over the past few years is disappearing.
But this is a medium-to-long-term logic and doesn’t affect short-term liquidation battles. If 108.39 breaks, longs will still be liquidated.
🟢 $ZEC | Current price 1,281
Above 1,306, about $760,000 in short positions. Below 1,239, about $920,000 in longs.
$ZEC’s liquidity pool is small and chips are concentrated, so leverage liquidations will have amplified price impact. The liquidation scale below is slightly larger; if 1,239 is breached, the probability of accelerated downside is high. But recent $ZEC price volatility is more driven by privacy narratives and capital rotation; on-chain data itself is stable—the proportion of shielded pools is at a historic high, and hash rate remains elevated. Price and fundamentals are at odds; follow the liquidation map in the short term and don’t hold positions based on narratives.
📊 Core judgments
$BTC has larger liquidation scale below, but that’s not a bearish signal. Before CPI/PPI data lands, the market will likely maintain a "narrow range oscillation + fake breakout to sweep losses" pattern. $ETH’s close liquidation levels on both sides make it most prone to repeated harvesting. $SOL’s mid-term logic is bullish, but short term must survive the data shock first. $ZEC’s thin liquidity means volatility will be amplified by leverage.
Before the data comes out, keep your hands off. Afterward, see if volume can hold key levels before deciding. Those who bet direction early often end up as marked numbers on the liquidation map.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $BTC is facing another week of major directional moves. Is it a siege against the bears, or a continued squeeze on the bulls?
Brothers, the CPI and PPI data are about to be released this week. Before that, data and macro geopolitical conflicts have been bearish, but the market reaction hasn't followed that narrative.
ETH spot has seen net outflows for 9 consecutive days, with BlackRock pulling out $470 million in a single week. Institutions are withdrawing and watching, yet retail investors are holding their positions.
Geopolitically, US-Iran negotiations have stalled again. Previously, there was talk of not taking action against Iran before the midterm elections, but behind the scenes, underhanded moves are happening—truly lacking in ethics. The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels is escalating further, and the US might also join this fight. It's one wave after another.
However, the current rally is likely a short-term recovery from last week's waterfall drop. Large funds and institutions are withdrawing and waiting for direction. Before the data releases on Wednesday and Thursday this week, entering the market is not recommended for heavy positions #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $AVAX has risen about 46.9% in the past 30 days. It seems that capital is starting to be willing to revalue some L1 and RWA assets, but judging from the recent trend, Ajian believes this is not a risk-free straight upward trend. The price has already moved from the narrative initiation phase to a stage that requires data support. It can be said that Helicon's upgrade has already ignited the spark. What needs to be watched next is whether real users, on-chain fees, RWA asset scale, and developer activity can keep this fire burning stronger. I will continue to watch whether the area around $10 can turn from resistance into support. I'd rather miss out than catch the last leg at the hottest emotional point 🚀 ETH & SOL Lead the Crypto Rally!
₿ BTC consolidates near $84,071, while ETH breaks above $2,550 and SOL climbs to $112.82.
🔥 Key Levels to Watch:
- BTC: $83,500 support
- ETH: $2,580–$2,600 resistance
- SOL: $113.5–$115 resistance
📊 Hong Kong’s upcoming SOL ETF launch could boost momentum, but beware of “buy the rumor, sell the news” volatility.
What’s next for SOL — $115 or a pullback? 👇
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto BTC rebound is not a reversal! ZEC open interest surges 11.1%, what are leveraged funds betting on?
BTC: Moving averages recovering, institutional funds still under pressure
BTC current price 84016, rebounded from $80,400, up 4.50% so far, retaking near MA5, MA10, and MA20. However, US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $707.9 million from October 7 to 9, turning to a net inflow of $21.1 million only on October 9. Single-day inflow does not indicate a full recovery of institutional buying; the 84,000–84,300 range remains a short-term observation zone.
ZEC: OI surges 11.1%, beware of crowded leverage
ZEC 24-hour gain about 9.26%, total network contract open interest about $1.7 billion, up 11.10%. Price rise accompanied by position expansion indicates increased leverage participation but does not directly confirm super whales going long. ZEC rebounded from $1,112.27 to $1,329.23, up about 19.50%; after a sharp rise, beware of profit-taking.
ETH, SOL: Key levels determine rebound strength
ETH rebounded from $2,406.36 to $2,565.28, watch $2,600 resistance; SOL rose from $105.71 to $112.42, watch $109.32 support and resistance near $113.40. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 $ONDO
ONDO accelerates recovery, why can't product asset scale and token demand be combined?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 0.4803—0.5325 USDT, change +7.49%, trading volume about 10.56 million USDT.
A significant increase draws trading attention, but the product scale of asset tokenization, management income, and token holder rights belong to different layers. Expansion of product demand does not necessarily form a proportional token buy order; short-term rotation can also drive the price.
If the 0.5325 high attempt fails and the lows keep dropping, first be cautious of expectation-driven supply; if the rights mechanism can be verified and maintains higher lows during pullbacks, then increase the fundamental weight.$W is unlocking every day, continuing all the way until 2028. Are you sure you want to chase longs at this kind of level?
First, look at W's token data: only 52.96% has been unlocked so far, with 47.04% still locked, and it's being released linearly every day. This unlocking schedule stretches all the way to 2028! What's worse, on October 16, just 4 days from now, there's another unlocking event.
The sell pressure for this coin never runs out. Those unlocking today want to dump, those unlocking tomorrow also want to dump, and the batch unlocking in 4 days is just waiting to cash out. For holders of unlocked tokens, the best scenario is when the whales pump the price up—the higher it goes, the easier it is to sell. You can see this pump is perfectly timed just a few days before the unlocking.
Now look at the smart money: despite such a strong pump, short positions still make up three-quarters of the long positions, and nearly half of the tokens are still waiting to be released. Who would dare to heavily buy in at this point?
Pumps are temporary, but unlocking happens every day. Don’t wait until the batch unlocking on October 16 to think about shorting. Get your short positions in now!#阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点 📰
🔥光刻机巨头要交卷了。市场盯的不是利润，是EUV订单。这玩意儿是先进制程的命门，订单多说明台积电三星英特尔还在拼命扩产。AI芯片产能有保障，算力叙事就还能撑下去。
但对币圈来说，最多算个情绪按摩。大饼还在8.4万磨底，ETF连续净流出，美债5.6%把场外资金焊得死死的。阿斯麦再牛，也解不了币圈流动性干涸的渴。
操作上别上头：不赌财报，不追AI概念币，现货底仓拿稳，合约别碰，U留着。等宏观出清砸出真坑，再去捡便宜。During this data week, I tend to first liquidate longs and then shorts after the data is released. Don't chase the first candlestick; wait for expectations to adjust before taking action.
BTC is currently stuck at 83,000, with a sell wall at 86,000. Four attempts to break through 87,000 have failed. The ETF saw a net outflow of over 700 million on October 7th and 8th, and only about 20 million inflow on the 9th, less than 3% of the outflow. Institutional long-term positioning remains, but those are slow variables and can't relieve the immediate selling pressure. If the data is hot, BTC will first break 80,000 and look toward 78,000; if the data is moderate, only then is there a chance to test 86,000. Hold your base positions firmly; don't chase short-term moves.
ETH remains the weakest, with continuous ETF outflows. Its staking yields can't compete with U.S. Treasuries, so institutions are not stepping in. When BTC weakens, ETH falls the hardest; when BTC stabilizes, ETH rises the slowest. Its role has shifted from an asset to a cash machine, so don't expect it to strengthen independently in the short term.
Gold $XAUT ETFs are attracting record inflows, with Q3 net inflows hitting a historic high. The buying is genuine. Energy price hikes suppress it in the short term, but as long as core inflation remains controlled, stagflation logic will drive funds back into hard assets. Once interest rates peak, gold will move faster than anyone else and is the only one among the three brothers with solid support.
My view is clear: don't act immediately after the data release. Watch whether it first spikes or crashes, and wait for the initial wave of emotion to subside before trading with the trend. Hold your base positions firmly in BTC and ETH spot, fully unload short-term leverage, and put gold at the top of your watchlist. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 @OKX星球 Recently, SanDisk $SNDK's pullback almost crushed me.
From the recent market situation, SanDisk has been continuously falling back, now priced around 1560. In the short term, we shouldn't rush to be bullish. The previous gains were too large, and with Samsung's preliminary Q3 results falling short of expectations, the market has started to reassess the profit outlook for the entire storage sector. Profit-taking is also intensifying the volatility.
Is this the end of the logic for the storage industry? I don't think so. AI servers and data centers still require a large amount of storage devices. What we really need to be cautious about is the future increase in supply, intensified competition, and overly high market expectations for performance. Demand in the industry doesn't mean every stock will keep rising.
Right now, I will focus on observing the support around $1550. If it can hold here and break through $1600-$1620 with volume, there is a chance for a gradual short-term recovery; if $1550 is effectively broken, we need to guard against a further drop to $1500.
For someone like me holding at a high position, the worst thing is to blindly add positions because of being trapped. First, see if the support can hold, then see if the rebound is accompanied by volume. I think the storage sector still has opportunities, but SanDisk needs to prove in the short term that it can stop falling and stabilize. Don't add too heavily to your position. I'm already pretty much done for now. Do you think I still have hope? 🥹🥹🥹 #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% Oil prices fell about $1.5, but BTC showed no significant movement.
This is not contradictory: energy impacts crypto through inflation and interest rate expectations first.
OKX Planet market page shows BTC around $83,820, ETH around $2,549, almost flat for the day. AP reported that during the Asian trading session, oil prices fell about $1.50 per barrel, with the news background being Trump stating the US will purchase Russian diesel.
Conclusion: This is just a sentiment variable, not a direct buy signal. If oil prices do not continue to decline, inflation expectations may not ease; geopolitical news can also be volatile, chasing single headlines for trading can easily lead to whipsaws.
Will you include oil prices in your crypto trading watchlist? Last night NEAR missed the move, and I was really frustrated. Today it surged to 6.06 but just couldn't break through. I opened a short position at 5.82, with a stop loss at 6.10 and a target initially at 5.6. I'm not greedy with this trade, planning a quick in and out; if it breaks 6.1, I'll admit defeat.
Just opened it, basically no profit or loss yet. Honestly, this short is a bet on an overbought pullback. The 15-minute MACD has a death cross, RSI dropped from 77 to 65, clearly no strength for a short-term rise. The daily chart is still bullish, but the 4-hour chart is also weakening at a high level. After such a strong surge, it needs to catch its breath.
The lesson from that 100x short last night is still fresh, so today I only dared to open 5x leverage, with a strict stop loss at 6.10. If it breaks the new high of 6.06, I'll exit immediately, no holding the position stubbornly. Once the target of 5.6 is reached, I'll reduce the position and then watch for 5.2.
I'm not sure if it will come down this time, but at least the stop loss is clearly set, unlike last night when I held recklessly. Let's see how it goes; the stop loss is in place, so whatever happens, happens.
Do you have NEAR in your hands? Are you going long or short like me?
$NEAR #首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市
#NEAR生态协议遭攻击致币价下跌近10%
#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回
Personal review, not investment adviceShorted $STRK at 0.10863 with 50x leverage, gained +200.68%, rocket falling directly hits the shorts.
Sell orders suppress above 0.10863, there are pressure orders on the order book. Large funds retreating, direction becoming clear. Market response: 0.10863 dropped to 0.10431, floating profit +200.68%! Capital outflow = selling pressure, decline confirmed.
Funds decide whether to stay or leave. Panic is fear of rebound, loss is bottom fishing.
Take profit on 60%, keep 40% at breakeven. Don’t rush if you missed it, watch the pressure orders at 0.10863, I’m watching the order book. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
This Wednesday will decide whether to raise interest rates in October.
At 8:30 PM Beijing time on October 14, the US September CPI and core CPI will be released. At the same time on the 15th, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will be published together. These data sets combined are the most important reference before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28.
The current pricing is very delicate. As of October 10, the market's bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in October is only 18%, favoring action in December instead. A week ago, this number was still 70%, dropping very quickly. But note, a drop in probability does not mean the Fed has turned dovish. The September minutes show most officials believe another hike may be needed this year, just differing on timing. The market pushing the rate hike timing from October to December is not canceling the hike, just delaying it.
So next week's data is critical. Rising energy prices may push overall inflation higher; core CPI truly tests whether price pressures are spreading. If core CPI is moderate, the market will strengthen pause expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields will fall, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 84500 or even 85000. If core CPI is strong, or retail and employment data are too robust, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again, BTC will face direct pressure around 83000, with short-term support between 81500 and 82000; breaking that looks toward 80000.
For BTC, now is the time to wait for the data. $BTC $ZEC ZEC is just rebounding, not reversing; now is a good opportunity to short.
It was rising all day yesterday, do you think a bull market is coming?
Bearish view: rebound is not a reversal
Don't be scared off by this rally. The broad rise yesterday doesn't mean a bull market; it's just short covering and a sentiment rebound. No volume increase, no capital inflow, no break of resistance—what bull market? The more it rises, the more it looks like a bull trap; the high points are shorting opportunities. This is not a reversal, it's giving shorts a position. Bull market? Wait for volume to increase and key levels to hold before talking. For now, I don't believe it.
Plus, smart money data shows shorts overall are in floating losses, with only about 20% profitable. The price that can reliably trigger short liquidations has no real buy support underneath. Now that shorts are being cleared, the fuel for the rally is completely burned out.
Operationally, you can short near 1330, targeting a drop back to 1200. #CPI and PPI releases are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test Hot Coin Data Ranking｜Last 15 Minutes
$BTC's full rally accompanied by position reduction, with selling bias at the end but price continues to rise. Trading volume 155 million USDT, 4.1 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous 1 hour; open interest -1.04%. Active buying at the end 20.2%, price in this segment +0.06%.
$S volume dropped, open interest basically flat. Trading volume 768,000 USDT, 2.0 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous 1 hour; price -1.97%, open interest basically flat.Three positions: one is making a profit, two are bleeding
In the same account, the $BTC short position is profitable, while $ETH and $HYPE are losing.
What is this number: $HYPE unrealized loss of 4.86 million, the largest among the three positions. Entry price 63.9, liquidation price 106.59.
It uses 5x full-position short leverage. If the price rises more than 20%, this position will be wiped out.
How is this number calculated: 40x short $BTC, entry at 84070, liquidation at 105740. There is a gap of over 21,000 USD in between.
The higher the leverage, the shorter the distance it can withstand; this is the same principle.
The three positions share one margin. Every cent $HYPE loses eats into the buffer of the other two positions.
The profits from $BTC are being gradually drained by $HYPE.
Once $HYPE's unrealized loss catches up with $BTC's unrealized gain, this account will have only one path left.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH #GRASS has rallied from a low point, but there is still significant disagreement about the sustainability of the rebound
US Treasury yields remain at a high level, and GRASS has shown a short-term upward movement. This does not necessarily indicate cross-market capital rotation; it only reflects risk assets moving in the same direction. The correlation does not mean funds are withdrawing from the bond market to enter crypto; it only shows that risk appetite is rising simultaneously.
OKEx spot GRASS/USDT latest transaction price is 0.8035 USDT, with a 24-hour range between 0.6718 USDT and 0.8904 USDT, showing significant short-term volatility. Whether this rally can hold depends on whether it can maintain the lower boundary of the current range. If it falls back below the low point, it is more likely a short-term impulse.
This correlation will change when US Treasury yields reverse. Where have you set your current order, and at what price will you place your stop loss?
$GRASS $BTC $ETH 84178 was pierced!! Don't chase longs yet, be careful of a dump after the sweep
Just broke above the 4-hour box top at 84178, current price around 84150, volume in 5 minutes surged to 7 times the usual, but only rose 0.1%. High volume with little price movement is a typical bull trap signal! The 4-hour moving averages are still in a bearish alignment. The range from 84749 to 85240 is a liquidation vacuum zone, likely to first spike down to sweep out short stop losses before reversing. My view: if the 4-hour candle can't hold above 84100, there's a high chance of a retest at 83530, then further down to 83200; to really turn bullish, it needs to hold above 85240 and close above it on the daily chart. Don't chase here!! Inflation data on Wednesday will set the direction. $BTC Brothers, this isn't how you hold a position, right?
Although I think $NEAR and $STRK are being hyped up by the post-quantum narrative without technical or product validation, and I don't recommend chasing the highs, I definitely don't suggest shorting against the wind.
Right now is the peak of the hype; $NEAR's RSI is 74.6 and heating up, the technicals keep hitting new highs, and even the leveraged positions have maxed out with $159 million in open interest. Shorting against the trend is basically like dancing on a tightrope.
Don't underestimate the power of web3 hype—every short squeeze teaches impatient brothers a lesson. If it weren't for everyone's crazy enthusiasm, which even made me start doubting my own judgment, I wouldn't have dreamed the other day about missing out and breaking my leg 😂
That's why I said after careful consideration the other day, I won't buy into a narrative I don't understand and have decided to stay away from it. $CAP Why current short positions are very dangerous
Currently, the number of people shorting is more than those going long, ratio about 7:3, and the funding rate is indeed positive
Retail shorts, whales are many
Core: look at the long-short ratio for people, look at the funding rate for money.
• 80% short (retail): fear of heights, topping out, many people but little money.
• 20% long (market makers): few people, but huge capital volume.
• Positive funding rate: total long capital > short, longs pay.
Market situation: retail shorts are the fuel, the main force pulls up causing a short squeeze. Brothers, I’ve directly reached enlightenment in the trading arena!
To go long, you have to learn how to pick coins, and even more importantly, how to compare them.
Before, I was foolishly stubborn, only going long on eth.
But now looking at it,
$BTC is way stronger than $ETH.
My logic: BTC has already risen above the weekly 5MA,
while ETH is still suppressed by the 5MA.
What does strong mean?
Losing less is what counts as strong! Losing more means chips are scattered, naturally weak, and a rebound will take more time to shake out and recollect chips before it can rise.
So I’m going long on BTC and short on ETH! $BTC $ETH Trump suddenly claimed that Russia and Ukraine have reached some kind of ceasefire agreement on energy, causing international oil prices to drop immediately. This is actually a brief easing window in external geopolitical risks, which might slightly affect the hot money jumping between various markets.
The impact of this news on my positions must be viewed from two sides. The most troublesome is my $STRK short position with a floating loss of 666%, bought at 0.09188, now at 0.104, held for almost 2 days. If this news boosts the overall market risk appetite, it might not be bad for altcoins, but my short position could become more passive. I can only hold on hard now and pray it doesn't keep surging. On the other hand, my slightly profitable $ZEC short position, 50x leverage opened at 1338, now at 1328, seems to have a better chance. This asset sometimes correlates with traditional market sentiment; if the risk-off sentiment cools down because of this, it might put some pressure on it, which is an invisible assist for my short. I plan to keep holding and observe if it can drop further.
Of course, the crypto world often doesn't play by the rules. If Bitcoin itself stays stable around 84190 or even quietly creeps up, and the whole market sentiment is completely unaffected by external factors, then this oil news is as if it never happened for us—pure noise from the outside world.
Keeping a close eye on the market, tightening the wind and pulling the sail.The token here can go up or down. It can go up because the pullback adjustment at 87K has already secured liquidity below on the 4-hour timeframe.
It can go down because the low point of the 4-hour pullback hasn't been fully confirmed yet.
Following the principle of big moves in the main direction and small counter-moves, a small adjustment around 83000-82500 could be a chance to go long, but if it breaks below 82K, expect further pullback to find a bottom. Two types of privacy coins. Two completely different mining windows.⛏️
🏴☠️ $ARRR — ASIC mining. 83.8% of the scheduled supply within 2 years.
🐉 $DRGX — CPU mining. Only 25.0% within 2 years.
“No premine” is just part of the story.
Who can mine the supply—and when?
#PrivacyCoins #ZEC #XMR #Dash #比特币mk4 this guy is going crazy! NEAR has been like it's on steroids these days, directly breaking the year's high and approaching $6. This guy, relying solely on a long position in NEAR, has a floating profit of over $20 million, with an average price of only 2.35, a return rate of 1491%!
But don't think he got rich by all-in gambling; looking closely at his positions, this guy is extremely stubborn and tough. In his entire account, NEAR is his only long position, while the other seven coins ($BTC, $ETH, SOL, ADA, etc.) are all short positions! Now that the overall market is rebounding, those short positions are all taking hits, accumulating a floating loss of over $1 million.
However, the profit from his NEAR long is so huge that after offsetting the longs and shorts, the net floating profit of the entire account is still $19 million! I heard this guy once mistakenly cut losses on a $77 million gold short position, looks like a very storied big player. Now facing NEAR's surge, he neither reduced his position nor placed orders, showing an impressively big vision.The market is really frustrating, rising a bit then falling a bit, falling a bit then pulling back, like a loom pulling back and forth, watching the chart makes me nervous 😮💨
But honestly, this kind of sideways grinding phase is often the eve of a breakout. Market sentiment is a bit subtle right now—some are shouting that the altcoin season is coming, while others are still waiting for signals. Is it really? Let's take a closer look 👇
$BTC is currently around $74,800. Resistance above is at $76,264 (20-day moving average), then $78,000, a level repeatedly tested but not held over the weekend; support below is at $73,800 (this week's low) and the psychological $70,000 level.
$ETH is currently around $2,280. It is capped above by $2,300 (hourly chart bearish trendline), a breakout would target $2,415; support below is at $2,250, a short-term key defense line, breaking which could lead to $2,150.
$ZEC is currently around $312. Resistance above is $324 (this week's high), support below is the $300 round number.
This is different from what was expected. Today, Monday, there was no decent gain; the whole market was instead held down by geopolitical factors. The ceasefire agreement in the Strait of Hormuz from Iran has encountered new uncertainties, oil prices rebounded 8%, and the crypto market weakened accordingly. $BTC fell from the weekend high of $78,000 down to around $74,000. Over 160,000 liquidations occurred across the market in the past 24 hours.
Now we need to rethink the subsequent market situation.
Here are a few points I noticed:
First, although the Fear and Greed Index is still in the fear zone (28), it has risen significantly from the extreme fear (12) of previous weeks. Market sentiment is slowly recovering; it’s not the worst time anymore.
Second, the altcoin season index is only 34/100, and Bitcoin’s market dominance remains high at 59.8%. This indicates funds are still nesting in $BTC; the altcoin rotation hasn’t truly started. ETFs have locked institutional funds into Bitcoin, and the previous transmission chain of "BTC pumps then $ETH pumps, $ETH pumps then altcoins pump" has clearly slowed this round.
Third, on the macro side, the Federal Reserve interest rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% unchanged, and rate cut expectations have been pushed beyond September. The high interest rate environment itself suppresses risk assets, plus ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East make big money hesitant to act rashly.
Fourth, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $276 million last week, and 32% of $ETH is already staked. On-chain supply is tightening, but the price hasn’t reflected this yet; this divergence is worth attention.
My judgment is: short-term will still be mainly consolidation, $BTC will likely grind back and forth within the $73,000-$78,000 range. $76,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; only breaking above it will there be a chance to challenge $80,000; breaking below $73,800 means looking down to $70,000. Don’t rush to chase altcoins; wait for $BTC to show direction first.
What do you all think? Let’s chat in the comments 👇
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ BATON's market cap has dropped to 20 million just because it was the former company name of pump.fun
Now even memes are getting competitive in archaeology, an abandoned old name can still be pumped up$SNDK A slight pull-up and the market completely reverses? Be realistic!
After a surge, it immediately falls back. With such weak rebound strength, the bulls have not regained control of the market. It's really too early to talk about a reversal.
There are a lot of chips waiting to exit pressing down above. To truly turn the trend around, solid funds need to enter to support it, forcefully breaking through key resistance levels, not just a slight pull-up that is quickly smashed back by the bears.
Don't forget, the overall risks in the storage sector have always been there! $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验