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📊 Bitcoin 9/26 Market Snapshot
Current price around 84,000, retraced about 4% from the weekly high of 87,363, consolidating with contraction at high levels
🔺 Bulls not broken
Daily chart still above the 20-day moving average (80,100), SMA/EMA all bullish alignment, RSI≈63 not overbought
🔻 Short-term weakness
30m chart still showing lower highs, below 85k treated as pressured rebound
📍 Key levels
Resistance: 85,800 / 87,363
Support: 83,300 / 81,000–82,000
84,900 = short-term strength threshold
🎯 Three scenarios
Break above 84,900 → pullback to 84,200–84,500 bullish, targets 85,200 / 86,900
Break below 83,300 → watch 82,832, further break targets 81k–82k
Sideways in between → no action, wait for direction
⚡ News
ETF net inflow about 2.39 billion buy orders intact vs 10Y US Treasury yield breaking 5.2% pressure. US stock market closed over weekend, pure chip game, volatility likely amplified
🛡️ Risk control
No chasing in mid 84k, single trade risk ≤1%, no orders placed 15 minutes before PCE (9/30)Bitcoin is still more than 40% away from its all-time high.
Meanwhile, cumulative inflows into spot ETFs are only 10% away from their all-time high.
Institutional capital accumulation is unprecedented and has significantly shortened the bear market.$BTC ($84,023, +0.27%), $ETH ($2,689, +0.10%), and $SOL ($120.49, +0.30%) are all barely moving today — just catching their breath. BTC ran from under $63K to near $87K last month; SOL spiked 10% in a single session days ago, more than double BTC's own move. Today's flatness is recovery, not a new signal. Worth noting: some analysts doubt that SOL spike was real altcoin rotation at all.
##BTCETF2.8BInflowStreak #USLongTermYieldsRise #Hormuz7DayPlanRejected 🔥 $BTC & ALTCOINS｜Capital Begins to Spread
$BTC is currently consolidating around $83,900 without further sharp rallies, but market breadth is clearly expanding.
📊 The Altcoin Season Index has risen to 58, hitting a nearly 3-month high; about 91 out of 100 major tokens in the CoinDesk 100 are up, indicating capital is spreading from BTC's strong trend to more altcoin sectors.
💰 ETF funds are also providing support: 🇺🇸 On September 24, spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of about $310.9M • BTC: +$190.7M
• ETH: +$66.0M
• SOL: +$32.8M
• XRP: +$14.9M
⚠️ But this cannot yet be directly equated to a full Altseason.
If BTC continues to hold $82K–$83K, altcoins may still have rotation space; however, the US long-term Treasury yields remain high, with the 10Y briefly exceeding 5.22% and the 30Y near 5.53%, so macro pressure persists.
📌 My observation: BTC consolidation + ETF inflows + expanding market breadth = rotation is happening.
But don’t mistake “most rising” for “all coins will keep rising.” What really matters is the duration of capital, trading volume, and whether BTC’s key support holds.
Excitement is fine, but don’t lose discipline The number 84000 looks quite intimidating.
But a 0.24% intraday increase basically means it just barely touched that level.
My first reaction wasn’t excitement, but doubt.
Whether it’s a real breakout or a fake one depends on if it can hold at this level.
From a trader’s perspective, at such a significant round number, the biggest fear is a quick spike followed by a retreat.
Right now, what we should focus on isn’t the price, but whether real money is coming in.
Breakouts without volume support are basically paper-thin.
The most common mistake retail investors make is rushing in just because they see the word “breakout.”
They end up buying at the highest point, and looking back, it’s only up 0.24%.
So is this wave a real hold above, or just another fake move?
When you watch the market yourselves, do you have a clear sense of it?
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $HYPE #BTC spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for 6 consecutive days
A large amount of BTC spot chips have been locked up, leaving fewer floating chips. Once market sentiment warms up, the accumulated strength will have a chance to be released, ushering in a moment of soaring.
The bearish expectation of interest rate hikes still hangs overhead, causing market concerns. Therefore, funds are entering the market but are not rushing to push prices up. On one hand, external macro news keeps disturbing; on the other hand, ETFs are continuously buying in reality, resulting in the current frustrating sideways consolidation.
However, sideways consolidation does not necessarily mean an inevitable rise. Macro pressure still exists. Do not go all-in betting on a one-sided move. This stage is suitable for patient positioning, quietly waiting for the market to choose a direction. Those who endure the volatility will be able to hold on to the subsequent market.
#US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies #Trump reportedly rejects 7-day plan, Hormuz reopening brings new changes $BTC $ETH $SOL Don't be fooled by the BTC price; the real rotation is already hidden in the positions!
The most worth watching in the market these days is not who has gained the most, but rather—where exactly is the money flowing?
$BTC 84K: ETF net inflows have continued for 6 consecutive days, totaling about $2.84 billion. The price has pulled back, but spot funds are still accumulating, indicating institutions have not retreated due to short-term adjustments. Support is seen at 83K; if broken, look to 78.4K.
$ETH 2.69K: While BTC pulled back, ETH still held around 2680, showing a divergence in strength. Short-term focus is on 2650–2680; if held, continue watching 2750–2800.
$ZEC 1.58K: The most remarkable is its price rise accompanied by increased positions, with quarterly gains exceeding 300%. This trend is highly elastic but also risky. Key support is 1450–1500; if broken, look to 1300–1350.
The macro side is also unsettled.
Trump reportedly has rejected Iran's "7-day plan," and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. If geopolitical risks continue to escalate, oil prices, inflation, and risk assets could all be affected.
So now I’m focusing on four things:
BTC for capital flow, ETH for strength, ZEC for positions, and macro for oil prices.
The real opportunities in the market often don’t come from price surges but from capital rotating in advance.
Yuanfang, what’s your take? #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息
Family, this wave is really outrageous.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) just submitted a proposal: the four US preferred stocks STRF, STRC, STRK, STRD are preparing to change from monthly/bi-monthly payments to "interest calculated daily on each calendar day, paid on the next business day."
Weekends? Holidays? All count.
It's not adding interest, but breaking the original small dividend into daily wages.
Key points:
Board approval on 9/24, special shareholders meeting vote on 10/28
If STRC passes: registration on 11/1/2026, first daily payment on 11/2
STRF / STRK / STRD: daily payments starting 1/2027
Dividend rate unchanged, total payout unchanged, only the "payment frequency" changes
Saylor's purpose is straightforward: reduce reinvestment lag, increase liquidity, stabilize price, and continue issuing preferred stock to buy BTC
In plain language:
MSTR is a "Bitcoin leveraged stock," STRC is increasingly like a "daily-settled financial product named after BTC."
But don't get carried away—preferred stock gets paid before MSTR common shares, but it's not risk-free: if BTC crashes or Strategy is cash-strapped, high yields may turn into risk compensation. STRC dropping to 75 in June was a warning.
I think the signal significance outweighs the profit significance here: traditional fixed income funds ↔ Bitcoin capital structure, Saylor is building a bridge.🔥 Today's crypto market, what really matters is not whether BTC has risen, but "where the funds are starting to flow."
$BTC is currently fluctuating around $84,000. The high U.S. Treasury yields continue to impact risk assets, but market sentiment has already begun to recover. More notably, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of $5.8 billion earlier this year, but it has now reversed to about $800 million net inflow, showing a clear improvement in funding.
Meanwhile, altcoins are collectively becoming active! 93 out of the 100 coins in the CoinDesk 100 have risen in the past 24 hours. Small and mid-cap assets are clearly outperforming the broader market, and capital rotation is accelerating.
However, it’s still too early to call a "full bull market."
About $14 billion in BTC options are approaching expiration, with the $85,000 level remaining a key battleground. Short-term movements are likely to involve rapid surges, spikes, and repeated long-short battles.
From now on, I’m only watching two signals:
① Whether BTC can firmly hold above $85,000 again
② Whether altcoins can continue to rise with increasing volume
If both signals appear simultaneously, the next phase of opportunities may not be limited to BTC.
Do you think this is the start of altcoin season or just a brief capital rotation? 👇
$ETH $ZEC
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 The news hasn’t been confirmed by Trump himself yet, but reports and insider rumors are already triggering a market reaction. According to the reports, Trump rejected the 7-day reopening proposal put forward by Iran and could consider further escalation after the midterm elections. Crude oil reportedly jumped sharply toward $96.7 as the headlines spread. $BTC $ETH $CL But I wouldn’t rush straight into the worst-case scenario. At this stage, it looks more like a mutual probing phase than an immedActually, after trading for so long, I still can't achieve a calm mindset deep down. My judgment of the market is basically correct at the macro trend level. For example, I successfully made several trades on the last interest rate hike trend that first fell then rose, and my predictions on Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH can be said to be accurate.
But the reason I still lose is that I want to succeed too much. The saying "more haste, less speed" just can't get into my head. I always find the mainstream volatility too small, then enter a coin with big volatility and end up getting wiped out in one go. When I can truly assess my restless heart, I think I will truly qualify to be a trader!
So, stay humble and patient! $BTC #BTC spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for six consecutive days
BTC spot ETF has seen net inflows for six consecutive days, accumulating $2.8 billion. Institutional funds continue to accumulate at low levels, and the market price has not directly surged; instead, it has pulled back to around $84,000 and is fluctuating sideways repeatedly.
The negative expectation of interest rate hikes still hangs overhead, causing market concerns. Therefore, funds are entering the market but are not rushing to push prices up. On one hand, external macro news keeps disturbing; on the other hand, ETFs are steadily buying, resulting in this frustrating sideways consolidation pattern.
Combined with reduced liquidity over the weekend and a decline in daily inflow scale, it indicates that a one-sided big market move is unlikely in the short term. Institutions are slowly accumulating at low levels, washing out short-term holders who cannot hold on, causing repeated back-and-forth fluctuations that test patience.
#Long-term US Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies #Trump reportedly rejects 7-day plan, Hormuz reopening brings new changes $BTC $ETH $SOL $SOL, $OKB, $BNB
SOL is relatively strong among major coins today, slightly outperforming BTC and ETH. The short-term key range is 120-122; as long as it holds steady, the short-term momentum is decent; 125 above is a threshold, and breaking through requires volume support, otherwise it may turn into a false move. The public chain's heat is intermittent, with SOL often showing sudden pulses but generally lacking sustainability. When participating, don't leverage too much; if the market weakens, its pullback will be rapid.
OKB remains sluggish with little volatility. There is support around 118-119 below and resistance at 123-125 above. Recently, lacking news catalysts, it basically follows market sentiment fluctuations. Its advantage is relative resilience during declines; its drawback is insufficient explosive power. Expecting a big bullish candle is unrealistic; it suits patient traders who prefer to grind slowly.
BNB is currently somewhat conflicted. Around 770 is short-term support, and the 790 area forms resistance. Overall momentum is average: it rises a bit when the market rebounds; it starts to erode during market consolidation. As the largest platform token by market cap, it has high capital push costs, making it difficult to have an independent short-term rally. It mainly depends on the overall market atmosphere.
Overall, SOL is more aggressive but needs to guard against volatility, OKB is more defensive, and BNB tends to follow. Their rhythms differ, so positions and expectations should be separated. This is only a market record and does not constitute advice.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 $PUMP rose nearly 18% in 24h, currently priced at 0.00458. But the 4H chart shows a three-stage pattern.
First stage, shakeout: On the afternoon of 09-24, a single 4H candle dropped from 0.0045 down to 0.00374, a 17% retracement. Everyone who bottom-picked that day got trapped.
Second stage, consolidation: From the evening of 09-24 to 09-25, it hovered between 0.0038 and 0.0042 for two days, volume shrank from over 4 million to just over 2 million, and no one was willing to move.
Third stage, volume breakout: At 12:00 today, volume surged to 8.9 million, more than double the consolidation period, breaking through the 0.0042 resistance box top, reclaiming the 0.0045 platform suppressed three days ago, reaching a high of 0.00463.
"Shakeout—Consolidation—Volume Breakout" is a typical structure for a second launch after the main force's shakeout. A true breakout has two verifiable points: the volume on the breakout candle (here it doubled), and whether the reclaimed old platform can hold as support. If neither is present, it's just an emotional impulse of a single candle.
For those holding $PUMP: watch 0.0042, which is now the support level. For those wanting to buy in: the first buying opportunity has passed; chasing above 0.0046 is just paying emotional money.
What do you think—is this the second wave launch or just an emotional impulse of a single candle? $PUMP 📊 BTC and Altcoins: More Like "Diffusion" Now, Not a Typical BTC.D Crash
Given the current market structure, I won't simply define it as "a massive outflow of BTC funds and a complete switch to altcoins" for now.
A more obvious feature is: BTC is consolidating at a high level, while more funds are starting to diffuse into sectors like ETH, SOL, XRP.
🔸 BTC is currently around $84K, still holding above $82K–$83K
🔸 BTC.D has recently pulled back to about the 56.5%–57% range, but no uncontrolled drop has occurred yet
🔸 Altcoin Season Index is currently about 56/100, still some distance from the traditional confirmation line at 75
🔸 From September 21–24, US spot crypto ETFs saw a total net inflow of about $3.04B, with BTC around $2.25B and ETH about $603M, indicating that funds are not unilaterally withdrawing from BTC
Glassnode previously pointed out that recently altcoin market participation is expanding, but this is still different from the past rapid BTC.D plunge and full Altseason.
👀 What I’m more focused on is not "whether BTC.D will crash," but whether BTC can stabilize above $82K while ETH/SOL/XRP continue to expand their relative strength.
If BTC #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息
The board of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has approved a proposal to amend the terms of four classes of perpetual preferred stock to register dividends daily and pay them the next day. This plan requires shareholder approval at the October 28 meeting.
The key point: the dividend rate and total annual expenditure remain unchanged; only the dividend distribution schedule changes from monthly to daily accumulation, not an increase in dividends. The company aims to use the daily dividend mechanism to enhance the liquidity of preferred stock, stabilize its price, and attract more institutional funds that prefer cash flow.
Personal view: This is a very clever financial packaging. The core purpose is to optimize financing tools, facilitate continuous bond and preferred stock issuance, and continue increasing Bitcoin holdings.
In the short term, this news will strengthen market confidence in the MSTR+BTC combination and is a positive sentiment. But risks cannot be ignored; the company's entire dividend capability is essentially tied to Bitcoin's price. Once BTC undergoes a deep correction and assets are under pressure, the redemption risk of preferred stock will rise rapidly.
Regarding this round of actions, do you think it is a long-term positive for BTC or simply financial beautification?Yesterday I placed a limit order to add 0.093 $DOGE, but unfortunately, because payment volume increased due to narrative, the price never dropped down.
1. House of Doge and MoonPay have expanded the merchant network accepting DOGE to over 6,000 stores, pushing real-time enterprise settlements along with RWA tokenization.
Next, it depends on the actual transaction volume. If usage increases, its story can shift from a pure community tipping coin to a real payment application coin. This is a long-term positive.
2. Also, on-chain whales are buying up: 600 million coins were swallowed by large on-chain orders in 24 hours; on the derivatives side, 5 whale wallets have piled up over $9 million in long positions on Hyperliquid, already showing profits.
3. BG has included DOGE in its reserve proof coverage. After the theft incident, exchanges rushed to prove their innocence, and DOGE gained a transparency endorsement, which is also a positive.
But the ETF traffic volume is too small; the basic foundation is still insufficient. Before institutions truly return, it remains a beta market, likely following the overall market trend.This market situation is grinding me down so much I can't even eat.
The NEAR short position in my hand is making my hands weak.
Closing the position isn't right, and holding it isn't right either.
Entry price was 4.93, currently up 35%.
If I close now, I only get a few U.
Forget it, I'll hold on, after all, it's a hard-to-find good entry point.
——
$BTC is stuck below the Bollinger Bands middle line at 84400, neither going up nor down.
It dropped from 86239 and has been oscillating; the 4-hour chart is full of doji candles.
Both bulls and bears are playing Tai Chi.
It's annoying to watch, like an old man slowly practicing Tai Chi in the park.
No strength at all.
If it breaks below 83000, watch 82000.
Only if it stands above 84500 will there be a chance.
Now it's just about enduring, enduring until you lose your temper.
——
$ETH is hugging the middle line at 2692, barely moving.
It dropped from 2749 and is just oscillating in this narrow range.
Can't rise, can't fall deeply, purely wasting time.
Watching the market has made me put down my chopsticks.
If it breaks below 2650, watch 2600.
If it stands above 2700, then we'll talk.
No use rushing, just wait for it to choose its own direction.
——
$ZEC slid all the way down from 1680, the rebound can't even reach 1550.
The middle line at 1548 is pressing down hard, bulls can't even catch their breath.
A once strong coin has become a sick cat, watching it makes me anxious for it.
If it breaks below 1500, watch 1450.
Don't go long; the rebound is a short opportunity.
In this market, it's not about skill, it's about patience.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 Trump reportedly rejects the 7-day plan; Hormuz reopening faces new changes. Trump reportedly rejects Iran's "7-day plan": Hormuz faces new changes, risk assets once again confront geopolitical premiums.
Previously, Iran proposed a 7-day roadmap to the US: reopening the Strait of Hormuz after meeting certain conditions, and promoting a ceasefire and subsequent negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that the plan has been submitted to the US through an intermediary.
However, the latest developments have reversed. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump has rejected the plan; Reuters also emphasized that the US government has not yet officially responded, and Iran is still awaiting an official reply.
The market implications are straightforward: part of the previous oil price decline and risk appetite recovery was based on market expectations of a US-Iran de-escalation and the reopening of Hormuz. Now, this expectation faces renewed uncertainty.
For BTC, the short-term focus should not be on diplomatic rhetoric but on oil prices and US Treasury yields. If geopolitical risks push energy prices higher again, inflation pressures and high interest rate expectations may rise simultaneously, which is the transmission chain that risk assets need to be more cautious about."Upgrading Bitcoin $BTC Cold Wallet Firmware: Pass These Two Security Gates First"
Many holders plug their hardware wallets into a computer, and the screen pops up "New firmware found, upgrade now," and they confirm with a swipe. But a cold wallet is not a phone; if the firmware flashing encounters storage verification failure, the device may reset to factory settings. If the mnemonic phrase paper is not at hand, the on-chain assets can only be viewed but not moved.
An even more sinister trick is fake upgrades. Hackers impersonate desktop clients, showing pop-ups that lure you to "enter your mnemonic phrase to complete verification." Once you comply, your private keys are effectively handed over.
Two security gates before upgrading:
1. First, find the handwritten mnemonic backup from back then, verify it word by word, and confirm it can restore before upgrading;
2. A genuine hardware wallet will never ask you to type the full mnemonic phrase on the computer. Always close any upgrade page that requests the mnemonic phrase.
Cold wallets store core assets, so don’t rush. Use official channels, verify firmware signatures, and confirm cautiously.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, increasing financing pressure: The real suppressor of risk assets may not be just the Federal Reserve's rate hikes
The U.S. bond market is repricing. On September 24, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.196%, a new high since 2007; the 30-year yield reached 5.4816%, the highest level since 2004. The driving factors include not only rate hike expectations but also oil prices, inflation, fiscal pressure, and increased corporate bond issuance.
On the 25th, the 10-year yield further touched 5.2297% before cooling down as oil prices fell.
This is critical for BTC and U.S. stocks. The higher the risk-free rate, the higher the risk premium required for holding high-volatility assets, while financing costs for corporations, real estate, and consumers also rise. The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate has already broken above 7% again.
Therefore, what the macro market should really focus on now is not just "whether the Fed will hike rates next time," but when the long-term yields will peak. As long as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stays above 5%, valuation pressure on risk assets will be hard to truly disappear. 🚨 Long and short capital congestion is diverging
Current funding rate signals worth noting:
🔴 $ONE
Shorts bear the financing cost, current rate about -0.39%, at a historically low percentile. Price slightly retraced about -0.5%, indicating short positions remain crowded.
🟢 $ZEC
Longs' cost has risen significantly, rate about +0.012%, near historical highs. Price increased about +0.7%, long congestion is worth attention.
🟢 $XRP
Funding rate about +0.008%, also near historical high percentiles. Price rose about +0.3%, long costs are increasing.
📊 Market background is also changing:
As of September 24, US spot crypto ETFs had a total net inflow of about $299M, including BTC about $180.5M, ETH $66.1M, SOL $32.8M, XRP $14.9M.
Continuous inflows into BTC ETFs remain an important market liquidity signal, with recent capital returning to BTC products.
👀 The key is not to look at funding rates alone, but to consider: price + OI + funding + ETF capital flows.
The more extreme the funding rate, the more you need to guard against sudden long-short squeezes.
Congestion does not mean an immediate reversal; confirming price structure is more important than chasing funding rates.
#BTC #ZEC #XRP #ONE #Crypto #FundingRate #ETF #CryptoMarket#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 BTC现货ETF连续吸金：28亿美元流入后，价格为何反而没有继续突破？
The US spot BTC ETF has recently seen a clear recovery in funding. Data shows that during the consecutive trading days up to September 24, the ETF accumulated a net inflow of about $2.8 billion, with a single-day net inflow of $999 million on September 21, the highest level in nearly 11 months; BlackRock IBIT is one of the main capital-attracting products.
Interestingly, after this large capital inflow, BTC surged above $87,000 but did not continue to break through, and has now returned to fluctuate around $84,000.
This indicates one thing: ETF buying is strong, but the market simultaneously faces profit-taking at high levels and macro tightening pressures, with new funds being absorbed by selling pressure.
Therefore, what I pay more attention to is not the "$2.8 billion" figure itself, but the price's response to the capital flow. If the ETF continues to have net inflows and BTC starts to show "resistance to falling, with lows steadily rising," this divergence may be more worth watching than a single-day surge. $BTC Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety. The last glance before sleep showed $ZHIPU still inching upward, but what I saw was a weak rebound, volume not keeping up, every surge running out of breath, with clear resistance above.
At this position for ZHIPU, the support is insufficient and it feels like a bull trap. I was very straightforward in the short position: don't chase the long, watch the short. The bearish view is that it’s under pressure at a high level, just wait for it to deflate on its own.
As soon as the market opened this morning, the answer revealed itself. From 117.96 down to 81.33, +621.05% in hand, the wait was worth it, hitting the rhythm just right feels good, this profit is solid. This short position from opening to closing was smooth without much fuss.
Take profit on 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don’t give back the profit. Don’t be greedy for the last bit, pocket the big chunk first.
The market is about waiting, profits come from holding.
Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will alert you immediately. The market is not short of opportunities, it’s patience that’s lacking. Don’t rush, wait for the right position.
$ADA $BTC ETH is hovering around 2690: After failing to surge to 2743, the market has entered an extremely narrow range awaiting a breakout
After rebounding from the low of 2626, ETH surged to a high of 2742.95, but the breakout did not continue and then quickly fell back. Currently, the price remains around 2688, basically compressed between 2680 and 2695 recently, with volatility clearly decreasing.
The 15-minute Bollinger middle band is about 2686, and MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all clustered around 2686–2687. The moving averages converging plus the Bollinger Bands continuing to contract indicate that ETH has entered a new phase of directional choice.
In the short term, the upper target is first 2695–2700; if it can hold with volume, there is a chance to challenge 2720 and the previous high of 2743 again; on the downside, focus on 2680–2665; if broken, 2640 or even 2626 may come back into view.
Notably, KDJ has rapidly surged, but trading volume remains weak, and the current active sell orders significantly exceed buy orders, so relying solely on strengthening indicators is insufficient to confirm a breakout.
What ETH lacks most now is not directional expectation but trading volume. A breakout above 2700 or a breakdown below 2665 could break the balance of this ongoing contraction; before that, 2680–2700 remains the core range of repeated battles between bulls and bears. $ETH If you, like me, trade mid-to-long term and strictly follow your own trading system, then just enjoy eating and drinking while waiting for the market to reach 100,000!
Short-term fluctuations are tailor-made for retail traders, and liquidity also comes from retail investors. If you're lucky enough to get an opportunity, then add to your position!
If the price rises a lot, sell some; if it pulls back a lot, add more! In the early stage of a bull market, don’t pay attention to who shared which profitable buy—that’s the easiest thing. Just avoid SAGA-type explosive pumps and air B tokens handing out Q!
The more you mess around, the faster your pockets lose money. This market isn’t suitable for clever small players, but it still needs this kind of liquidity!
After this pullback ends, the third wave will basically be between 100,000 and 120,000. When the third wave pullback ends, the fourth wave will break through a new high of 126,000. This timing is roughly before the Bitcoin halving, meaning the fourth wave will complete before April 2028!
Counting from now, there’s about a year and a half left, experiencing two waves, so most of this period will still be consolidation! Therefore, short-term retail traders will ultimately find it very hard to get results.I originally thought I might have to cut the position and accept the loss, but somehow the market decided to cook the meat for me. 😂 Before going to sleep last night, I took one final look at $ONE. It had bounced quite strongly, and for a moment, I honestly thought my short position was about to get buried. Then the negative news hit. Before the market fully picked up momentum, I noticed $ONE trying to move higher, but the rebound lacked real strength and buying support. The short-term bearish $BTC is parked near $84,342, barely moving, while the Altcoin Season Index just hit 56 — its highest read in over three months. 93 of 100 major tokens are green today. This is the textbook pattern: capital drifts into smaller names once the big coin runs hard and pauses. History says only a few of these actually deliver — most fade once attention moves again. Excited, but not naive this time.
#BTCETF2.8BInflowStreak #USLongTermYieldsRise #Hormuz7DayPlanRejected #Trump reportedly rejects the 7-day plan, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces new changes. Folks, the situation in the Middle East has flipped again, Trump directly tore up Iran's proposal.
Originally, Iran proposed a 7-day plan: as long as the US lifts the maritime blockade and relaxes oil sanctions, they would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days and resume negotiations. When the news came out, the market thought tensions would ease, and Brent crude oil briefly dropped more than 4% on September 25.
But Trump immediately rejected the plan and even hinted at considering resuming military actions after the midterm elections in November. This calculation is shrewd: he doesn't want the war to drag down his election prospects before the vote, but also doesn't want to appear weak before the election. By delaying until after the election, he both secures votes and keeps his fist clenched for a fight. Iran wants to use the strait as a bargaining chip to lift sanctions, but Trump is not buying it.
This directly impacts our market. The supply risk in the oil market needs to be repriced. If oil prices continue to rebound due to geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations won't come down, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes won't be lifted. Bitcoin was originally hoping for Middle East easing to cool down oil prices, but now that path is uncertain again. The price surged to 87,000 then pulled back, macro liquidity pressure remains high. $BTC $ETH $SOL The current bull market is really boring.
I miss 2021. Back then, narratives were everywhere, liquidity was overflowing, and almost every day there was a KOL you knew who became famous in that one year.
Cycle traders were playing blockchain games, pushing a single game to A9.
Short-term traders took one $STARL and pushed it to A8.
A friend of mine who graduated from Shanghai Jiao Tong University made 80 million RMB in one year in 2021 just by using arbitrage bots.
Back then, waking up meant looking for a coin that could 10x in a day.
Even the public chain sector, which seems pretty dumb today, had gains of dozens of times back then.
Now look at these altcoin market caps, damn, even the whales can’t pull out A9...
Lately, I’ve been thinking about how, in this industry’s late-stage red ocean phase, individuals and careers should break through?🚨 ETH Short Trap: Is Monday About to Bring the Big Move?
This ETH short is seriously testing my patience.
My average entry: $2,562
ETH now: around $2,685
Floating loss: $5,000+
But honestly, the price going up isn't even the most frustrating part.
It's the sideways action.
Every day, ETH gives me a little hope that a pullback is coming…
Then it bounces again.
My short has been hanging there for almost a week now.
And if ETH keeps moving sideways throughout the weekend. 2700 Tug of War: Pullback Not Over, Reversal Not Confirmed
$ETH has been grinding back and forth around the 2700 level for several rounds, each attempt to push higher falling just short, with volume never catching up. Without a breakout supported by volume, it can't hold above, and it's mostly a bull trap.
I've been holding my short positions from the lows, and even when the price broke through mid-way, I followed my plan to scale back in batches, keeping my average cost around 2670. Some always say "Don't short in a bull market," but have you really forgotten what happened on October 11 last year?
That earlier spike pierced above 2800, but BTC couldn't hold, and then quickly dropped back. This clearly shows there is solid selling pressure above. Today, I only trust one signal: whether $ETH can reclaim and hold above 2700. If it can't, I won't participate in longs; a volume-less rally is more likely a pullback rather than a reversal.
Position sizing first obeys discipline, the market will provide answers later. Personal record, not investment advice.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 The US-listed company Sequans, which once imitated MicroStrategy by issuing convertible bonds to buy BTC, has just announced that it has completely sold off all its BTC. After taking a heavy hit, it obediently returned to its main business. Just last year, at the peak price of 110,000, it bought 3,000 BTC and even boldly declared it would buy up to 100,000 BTC by 2030 🤣$WBT is the closest and the most likely candidate to break its all-time high first over the weekend. $HYPE is second but has more obvious divergence risks, while $VVV has the greatest elasticity but is the farthest away.
Current approximate positions (data as of September 26, slight differences across sources):
• WBT: about $83.8–84.1, ATH about $87.9, gap about 4.5–5%.
• HYPE: about $91.6–92.3, ATH about $98, gap about 6%.
• VVV: about $30.3, ATH about $34.5–34.6, gap about 13–14% (a bit wider than the 11.7% listed).
Why WBT ranks first
It has the smallest gap. The price is already near $84, and the "immediate support at 84" mentioned in the list exactly matches the current price. As long as there is a mild buy-in or exchange-related news over the weekend, the 4–5% gap is easier to close in one go than the other two. The target extension to 95.37 is the next Fibonacci level and not a prerequisite to count as "breaking the ATH."
Its volatility is usually lower than pure on-chain/AI narrative coins, making it less likely to be pushed back to the lower channel edge by a large bearish candle in the low-volume weekend environment.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 $2.84 billion poured into BTC! What exactly are institutions waiting for?
Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $84,000
The price is pulling back, yet ETF funds continue to flow in
In the past 6 trading days, the US spot BTC ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of about $2.84 billion, averaging nearly $470 million per day.
On September 21 alone, the net inflow was close to $1 billion, indicating that this round of funds is not small-scale but rather large capital continuously allocating to BTC.
Looking at BlackRock's IBIT, there was a cumulative inflow of about $1.35 billion over 6 days.
In other words, while ETF funds keep flowing in, institutions have not noticeably retreated despite BTC's short-term pullback.
This creates a very interesting phenomenon:
BTC is fluctuating in the short term, but funds are slowly taking chips off the table.
Of course, the ETF inflow rate has recently slowed down, so the short-term should not be directly interpreted as an "imminent surge."
However, if ETFs continue to maintain net inflows and BTC climbs back to $85,000–$86,000, once funds and price resonate, the market could look very different.
What’s truly worth watching now is not just the BTC price, but whether institutional money is still present.
If you are an institution, can you share what you are waiting for or thinking? Feel free to discuss #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 $ENA Short-term conclusion: Bulls dominate but are overheated; chasing highs carries greater risk than waiting for a pullback, so it is preferable to buy on dips.
From the capital perspective, $ENA surged 22.45% in 24h with a trading volume of 134.5M USDT. The funding rate is +0.0050%, indicating that bulls in the perpetual market are willing to pay to hold positions, reflecting a hot sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is at 74, in the greed zone, combined with a 30-candle amplitude of about 22.57%, showing increased risk of spikes and liquidations. The moving averages show MA5=0.27142 has crossed above MA20=0.26244, maintaining a bullish trend structure; however, RSI=66.2 is near overbought, MACD histogram at -0.0007289 remains negative, and the price at 0.2711 is close to the upper Bollinger Band at 0.279553, indicating momentum for upward moves is weakening. The short-term pattern looks more like a consolidation after crowded bullish positions rather than a one-sided acceleration.
Operationally, it is recommended to buy in batches on pullbacks within the 0.2620–0.2660 range, which is near MA20 and the middle Bollinger Band, helping to avoid chasing spikes during overheated funding rates. Take profit 1 is set at 0.2795, corresponding to resistance at the upper Bollinger Band; take profit 2 is at 0.2900, an extended target after breaking above the upper band; stop loss is set at 0.2540, as falling below the lower edge of the middle Bollinger Band would indicate a breakdown of the bullish structure.#BTC Spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for 6 consecutive days
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
The 2.8 billion+ in these 6 days is not retail frenzy; it's institutions filling the net outflow gap for the year — turning positive to about 787 million for the year, with IBIT alone taking nearly half, indicating real money is allocating, not just speculative trading.
But what I focus on is the "slope": nearly 1 billion inflow on Monday, dropping to 191 million on Thursday, showing a clear cooling of marginal buying.
$BTC price is stuck between 84,000–85,000, supported by ETFs and pressured by macro interest rates, a typical "mid-term funds haven't withdrawn, short-term leverage is being washed out" scenario.
My judgment: mid-term remains bullish unless 83,000 breaks + ETF turns net outflow, which would signal a trend reversal. For now, use ETF flow as a baseline temperature gauge; wait for PCE and interest rate expectations to nail down direction before adding positions.
$ETH
$SOL The inherent paradox of the modern fiat currency system dictates that every prolonged debt cycle must rely on increasingly large-scale liquidity dilution to delay clearing. Today, as global central banks successively shift to interest rate cuts and sovereign debt swells like a snowball to tens of trillions of dollars, the flood of excess fiat currency is frantically searching for a vehicle capable of traversing the inflation cycle, and Bitcoin is demonstrating an irreplaceable ultimate sponge attribute. The traditional three major reservoirs now all face severe structural internal friction: the real estate market is constrained by an aging population and extreme leverage, with asset liquidity almost frozen and maintenance costs extremely high; sovereign bonds have become worthless paper diluted by inflation amid real negative interest rates and debt ceiling farces; and although traditional precious metal gold has deep historical consensus, its physical limitations in cross-border transfer, verification of ownership, and micro-segmentation prevent it from matching the asset turnover speed required in the digital high-frequency trading era. In contrast, Bitcoin, with its mathematical hard cap of 210,000 coins and near-light-speed global settlement network, perfectly absorbs this overflow pressure of cross-sovereign liquidity. The capital flight paths of private capital in high-inflation economies such as Argentina and Turkey have already provided a clear microcosm, where sovereign fiat currencies have become castles in the air amid devaluation storms, and local residents and enterprises have completed micro-level wealth self-rescue through digital assets. This micro awakening is gradually spreading to sovereign funds and multinational hedge funds. Bitcoin's underlying architecture has no counterparty risk and does not rely on the performance willingness of any physical government; its globally 24/7 operating order book constitutesBitcoin entering a bull market relies on the crossover of two moving averages
An analyst said $BTC has already entered an early bull market.
He is not looking at the price, but the ratio of two moving averages.
How this number is calculated:
Take the 30-day average of MVRV, then divide it by the 365-day average.
On August 20, this ratio crossed above its own yearly line.
Common misinterpretation:
This does not mean $BTC will only rise and never fall from now on.
It only indicates that the market's average cost has started to exceed the long-term cost.
Historically, this signal appears and the early stage lasts about a month on average.
That time it lasted 31 days, with the price rising 13% from 71255.
The signal is retrospective; by the time it confirms, a price increase has already completed.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 $BTC After Bitcoin rebounded at a key support area, the market has fallen into divergence again: is this just a short-term technical correction, or is the trend strengthening again? Currently, there is a signal worth noting — funds have not significantly withdrawn. 📊 The US spot BTC ETF has recorded net inflows for six consecutive trading days, with cumulative funds exceeding $2.8 billion. Among them, the latest trading day saw a net inflow of about $191 million, with BlackRock IBIT attracting about $163 million in a single day. Meanwhile, the cumulative inflow of about $280 million over six days shows that institutional demand still exists. However, it should be noted that the ETF's single-day inflow has declined for three consecutive days: the previous single-day peak was close to $999 million, then gradually dropped to about $715 million, $347 million, and the latest about $191 million. In other words, funds are still flowing in, but the short-term enthusiasm for chasing gains is cooling down. BTC previously broke through $87,000 but then fell back to around $84,000, remaining in a high-level consolidation phase in the short term. At the same time, US Treasury yields remain high, which also puts some pressure on risk assets. So what really needs to be observed now is not how much a rebound can rise, but: 🔹 Whether BTC can re-establish itself above key resistance levels 🔹 Whether buying continues to support on pullbacks 🔹 Whether ETF fund flows can maintain positive inflows 🔹 If it dips again, whether previous support can still hold effectively If support continues to hold and ETF funds remain net Is the bull market here?
After Bitcoin's adjustment, the ratio of the 30-day to 365-day MVRV moving averages broke above 1.0 on September 20,
meaning the short-term average rose above the annual average, and the market transitioned from an "early bull market" to a "bull market" phase.
At that time, BTC price was $80,691.
As of the time of writing, this ratio is 1.018; as long as it stays above 1.0, the market structure remains bullish.
This is the sixth time since 2012 that this model has shown such a phase switch,
and in the previous five times, four bull market phases ended with prices higher than when they began; the only exception occurred in August 2015,
when this phase lasted only 16 days before falling back to the early bull market,
and then re-entered the bull market phase in October of the same year.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 950 million raised, 406 million lost
CFTC sued Cash FX, promising 15% weekly returns.
What they said: professional traders plus AI trading, but in reality, almost no forex trading was done.
Why it matters: 950 million came in, 406 million confirmed lost, where did the difference go?
Working backward, 15% weekly interest means the principal doubles in five weeks.
This kind of scheme can't last half a year; those still holding are just new money filling the gap.
I hold positions, but at least the candlesticks are real.
I've only seen numbers like 15% weekly interest in dreams after liquidation.
Watching the follow-up recovery efforts, maybe a few points can be retrieved.
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地 #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $ZEC US spot $BTC ETFs just printed a 7th straight inflow day. $ETH is on 6. SOL products took $85M on Friday huge vs. their size.
But look at the fade:
Mon +$999M
Tue +$715M
Wed +$347M
Thu +$191M
Fri +$134M
That’s still $2.4B in five sessions. BTC is stuck $84k, not $87k.
Translation: Institutions are buying the dip. They’re not chasing the breakout. Overhead supply at $85–87k is absorbing the bid.
Green flows + flat price = accumulation under resistance, not FOMO.
$BTC $ETH $SOLSince ZEC is a privacy coin, why do hackers always convert the funds into ETH? After the theft on Bitget yesterday, many friends raised this question. Indeed, in almost all major hacking incidents that can be recalled, the stolen stablecoins and altcoins are quickly converted into ETH. The reason is actually very simple; follow my logic below:
1. For hackers, security is more important than privacy. They must ensure that the money they painstakingly steal will not be frozen. Most stablecoins and altcoins have blacklists, and most public blockchains can roll back nodes. Therefore, hackers must quickly convert the stolen funds into assets that cannot be frozen.
2. You might ask, BTC also cannot be rolled back and has no blacklist, so why not convert to BTC? The answer is that they do convert to BTC, but slowly, because the majority of assets stolen by hackers on-chain and on exchanges are on the Ethereum mainnet. Naturally, converting directly to ETH is the fastest and does not require waiting for cross-chain transfers. Speed is essential here; otherwise, waiting slowly for cross-chain transfers would result in freezing. The same logic applies to ZEC and other privacy coins.
3. As mentioned, security is more important than privacy. After quickly converting to ETH to ensure safety, hackers can rest easy. Then, over the next several days or even months, they slowly split the ETH into thousands or tens of thousands of addresses, and then use mixers and bridges like THORChain to gradually convert it into BTC.$SUI SUI has risen more than 30% in the past week, and today it surged nearly 10% again, currently priced around $1.04–1.07
Trading volume is close to 1 billion USD
Several things happened at once
DeepBook launched a user-facing app yesterday
This is the native order book on the Sui chain, now supporting spot trading and a feature called Predict
A Bitcoin price range prediction market as short as 60 seconds
The official said the order book has accumulated over 20 billion USD in transactions
This is the clearest product launch in the recent ecosystem
Sui Foundation joined the Linux Foundation's tokenization standards organization, participating alongside Swift, Wells Fargo, and others to develop tokenized asset standards
Focusing on institutional and RWA directions
DeFi TVL also rose, reaching about 1.2 billion USD
There are catalysts ahead
On October 7–8, Singapore Sui Basecamp, Mysten Labs previewed a new product announcement, saying "taking Sui finance to another level"
There has been a lot of narrative around this conference recently
BTC as programmable collateral, gasless stablecoin payments, confidential transfers, AI Agent settlements are all being laid out.
My feeling: This round of SUI's rise is not driven by a single piece of news, but by several factors stacking together to form an expectation wave. Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of care. The last glance before sleep at $MUBARAK showed it hovering stubbornly around 0.031750, the support hadn't broken, so I knew this position had potential.
Funds quietly entered the market; although the volume wasn't large, the support below was steady. The bullish signals were very clear—if the pullback doesn't break support, it's an opportunity.
This morning when I checked the market, it was at 0.053001, up +668.18%. The wait was worth it; I timed this move perfectly.
Don't let profits inflate your ego, and don't despair over pullbacks.
Regarding position management, I took profit on 75%, and moved the stop loss on the remaining 25% to the cost price. If it continues to rise, let the profits run; if it falls back, don't be upset.
For those who haven't entered yet, don't rush. Chasing highs can leave you stuck at the peak. Wait for a new structure to form and then reassess; there will be more opportunities ahead.
$ETH $XRP $BTC is consolidating within a range, $ZEC is waiting for the NU7 starting signal
BTC is currently at $84,053, down slightly by 0.38% in 24 hours. In the past five full trading days, it has closed four times within the $83,800-$86,419 range. The current price is still operating inside the range, not breaking out again; the rhythm is more like trading time for space. On the ETF side, spot support continues. As of September 24, BTC spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of about $2.84 billion over six days, ETH products about $747 million over five days, indicating that the funding side has not weakened.
ZEC is at $1,555, up 0.53%, still about 24.63% higher than the opening on September 16. Support comes from both ends: U.S. ZEC products had a net inflow of about $35.17 million this week, and last week there were 62,379 shielded transactions, with product flow resonating with upgrade expectations.
The real node is NU7. The version will be completed on September 30, enter the testnet on October 6, the mainnet activation height will be decided on October 20, and November 5 is only the target date. If BTC holds steadily above $83,000, ZEC can continue to test $1,625-$1,680; but if pre-testnet positions and funding rates keep rising while spot prices fail to break $1,625, bulls chasing the rally will turn into active sellers during pullbacks. Rhythm is more important than direction.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $ETH The contracts on Polymarket about whether Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Bank of America will collapse are drawing attention from the FDIC and Congress. Ajian thinks this is like repeatedly jumping around a minefield. Although the trading volume is not large, it touches on issues of financial stability and bank runs. Polymarket is already deeply stuck in the quagmire of identity and regulation. Instead of clarifying market boundaries and risk rules promptly, it dares to touch on predictions about banks, sovereigns, and financial institutions, which is somewhat reckless 😅UNI may be setting up for a major move.
CME UNI futures launch Oct. 19, the fee switch supports buybacks/burns, and whales have accumulated 782K UNI.
I started buying around $9.20, adding on weakness, with a stop below $8.50.
$BTC $ETH $UNI
#BTCETF2.8BInflowStreak #USLongTermYieldsRise #Hormuz7DayPlanRejected No vision, can't hold on, the profit this time is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. When the screen is full of green light, I stare at the short position of $OFC, actually feeling uncertain inside.
During the intraday plunge, while everyone was still watching, I saw OFC under pressure at high levels; every rally was just short of breath, and the volume didn't cooperate. The short position logic became smoother and smoother. Low trading volume, weak rebound, heavy false bullish signals.
From 0.009478 to 0.008359, +236.54% pocketed. The earlier part was really dragging, but the outcome is really sweet; this piece of profit feels comfortable.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection. Don't be greedy for the last bit; put the big portion in your pocket first. Even if it rebounds, don't let the profit become uncomfortable.
Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a flying knife and end up with a bloody hand. Don't let profits inflate, don't despair over drawdowns.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing shorts easily gets caught by a rebound at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round; I will notify immediately. The market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patience. Move only when the next signal appears.
$DOGE $SOL