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[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Long-term US Treasury yields have surged again. Is this time going to wipe out all risk assets?
Pharaoh states directly that the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.14%, and the 30-year broke through 5.44%, both reaching the highest levels since 2007. What's worse is that the nature of this rise has changed — previously, the market expected Fed rate hikes to push yields up, which was a "benign normalization"; now about half of the increase comes from an expansion in term premium!
Why can't it be contained? Three things exploded simultaneously. First, US federal debt surpassed 40 trillion, with interest payments this fiscal year approaching 1.2 trillion, exceeding defense spending. Bonds issued during the low-interest era are maturing intensively, refinancing costs have directly doubled. Second, AI giants are also competing for funds; tech companies issued about 194 billion in bonds this year, up 79% year-over-year, competing for capital in the same pool as the government. Third, oil prices surged past $100, inflation expectations remain high, and four Fed officials collectively turned hawkish, with the probability of a rate hike in October reaching about 75%.
What does this mean for BTC? The risk-free rate has risen above 5%, making the cost of holding zero-yield assets too high. BTC was hammered from 87,000 down to around 83,000; it's not that BTC isn't trying, but funds are being sucked into US Treasuries. Resistance is between 85,000 and 86,000, support between 82,000 and 83,000.
Pharaoh's bottom line: As long as the fire in the bond market doesn't die down, BTC can only look for opportunities in the cracks. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 I casually checked my $ONE strategy and found that the strategy automatically stopped after the price broke through the preset range. Yesterday, seeing $ONE weakening all the way, I opened two short strategies. However, since $ONE is quite volatile, a sudden surge is also possible, so I didn't fully load the position. Strategies can be executed, but risk control is more important. Don't chase, don't go all in, let the price play out first. #DailyOrbitBe cautious about the short-term effects brought by US-Japan intervention.
This morning I saw news reports that the Japanese Finance Minister expressed concern over the depreciation of the yen and is working hard to coordinate and communicate with the US. Essentially, it is because the government bond yields keep rising. Trump, who is unreliable, is probably also trying to find ways to suppress the rise in bond yields. In the long run, this will be fatal to high-valuation companies and may affect capital flows, increasing borrowing costs. Trump is a businessman and will always try to find a way to create a loophole to deceive the market. Moreover, US-Japan intervention can trick gold into short-term fluctuations, but bond yields cannot be fooled. I don't know if the current bond crisis is deliberately orchestrated by someone. If so, the risk of bank fund circulation is very high, affecting corporate investment.
Overall, if negotiations between the US and Iran bring oil prices down, or if there is yen intervention, bond yields may decline. However, I personally believe that the drop in oil prices is the top priority. Trump may devote some effort to this negotiation because if it goes badly, the midterm elections will really be in trouble. Currently, under the market's expectations of interest rate hikes, oil price fluctuations will have some short-term impact on the market. Everyone can pay attention to whether there will be yen intervention and oil price fluctuations today.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ CORE: Roadshows around the world, implementation is always on the way
Many experienced traders on overseas X platforms recently discussed CORE, revealing the illusions many have.
They said:
What you see is the CORE team flying to the US to negotiate banking business, standing at KBW Korea Blockchain Week, a screen full of grand BTC-Fi narratives, SatPay, native BTC staking—it sounds like the ultimate story of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
But beneath the surface, overseas bearish KOLs only recognize one thing: all negotiations are intentions, all products are still in testing, and all cash flow exists only in PPTs and Twitter posts.
Many convince themselves with the uniqueness of the track: this is the only financial layer for BTC, with no competitors in the field.
The overseas bloggers’ sharp retort: no matter how grand the narrative, if it cannot be converted into real on-chain revenue, it will always be just a story.
Roadshows, bank visits, offline exhibitions are essentially business PR.
Meetings ≠ signing contracts, beta testing ≠ official launch, roadmap promises ≠ stable cash flow.
The overseas community repeatedly mentions a hidden risk: the selling pressure from continuous token unlocking, which always hangs over the market.
No matter how attractive the BTC-Fi story is, the continuous unlocking of tokens will keep diluting the buying power.
Many long-term believers’ logic: wait for institutional funds to enter, wait for bank cooperation to materialize, then the market will explode.
Institutions look at projects, and the first thing they check is not the narrative but verifiable real income, stable product data, and compliant qualifications that can be implemented.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ $BTC current price is 84,262, up +0.50% in 24 hours, positioned at 68.0% within the 24-hour range of 82,812 ~ 84,931. On the 15-minute chart, 4 of the last 6 candlesticks are bullish — buying pressure continues. Let's first discuss the short-term structure. On the 15-minute level, $BTC is below MA20 (84,408) and MA50 (84,367), with both moving averages converging, indicating a sideways consolidation awaiting a breakout. The 2-hour range is 77,377 ~ 87,374, with the current price at 68.8% of this range; the 2-hour MA20 is 84,162, and the price is 0.12% above it (2-hour timeframe). The daily chart shows a complete bullish structure: $BTC's MA20 is at 80,041, with the price 5.27% above it; the daily range is 57,750 ~ 87,374, positioned at 89.5%. Key levels are as follows: Resistance above $BTC is at 84,450 (near the last 8 highs on the 15-minute chart), then 84,408 (15-minute MA20). Support below is at 84,020 (near the last 8 lows on the 15-minute chart); breaking this level points to 82,812 — the 24-hour low. Funding rate: 0.0067%, very mild, with no obvious leverage increase on the contract side. [$BTC View] Consolidation (short-term 12-24 hours) [Basis] Does a bullish moving average alignment always mean you should chase longs? Not necessarily; the key is to look at the "distance" between the price and the moving averages.
Take $QNT as an example: the current price is 96.9, MA5=91.96 is clearly above MA20=84.49, indicating a healthy trend structure. However, the price has already surged near the upper Bollinger Band at 98.92, and the RSI is as high as 89.7, which is a typical overbought zone. A healthy trend does not equal a healthy entry point—the moving averages tell you the direction, while RSI and Bollinger Bands tell you the position. Combining both forms a reusable market analysis framework: when the trend is upward, only reduce positions near the upper band or buy back on pullbacks to the moving average, rather than chasing highs at the peak of market sentiment.
It is worth noting that the funding rate is -0.0045%, meaning shorts are still paying fees, indicating that bullish sentiment has not yet become extremely crowded. This subtly offsets the Fear & Greed Index at 71 (Greed), implying there is still momentum after the sharp rise, but the risk-reward ratio for chasing highs is already poor.
In terms of operation, I tend to be bullish but do not chase highs. I wait for a pullback near MA5 around 91.5–93.5 to enter in batches. This range is also close to the upper edge of the Bollinger middle band, representing a balance point between trend and valuation. Take profit 1 is at 98.9, the resistance at the upper Bollinger Band; take profit 2 is at 105.5, the measured extension target after breaking above the upper band. Stop loss is set at 87.8; if it breaks below MA20 and the previous dense trading area, the bullish structure fails.
Also watching: $XLM, $BROCCOLI714.Er Gou仔 carefully studied the $SOL broken market, and it's truly a tale of two extremes.
First, the "ice" side. Solana's meme coin ecosystem evaporated $250 million in 24 hours, with retail investors' losses piling up like mountains. Big whales on Bitfinex are all closing long positions and fleeing. Some even complain that SOL's testnet TPS is only 16; Er Gou laughed, saying this speed isn't even as fast as his second-hand electric bike starting up.
Now, the "fire" side. Tether directly transferred $500 million USDT through Solana to Binance, bypassing Ethereum! The SOL spot ETF saw a net inflow of $14 million in one day, with daily active users surpassing 8 million. Not to mention the Alpenglow upgrade going live, confirming times are expected to shorten to 150 milliseconds.
Er Gou is now in an extremely abstract state of mental schizophrenia. On one hand, thinking with centralization and whales fleeing, why would it rise? On the other hand, watching ETF inflows and Tether transfers, it feels like the dog whales are about to crush the shorts on the ground at any moment.
This market is like a toxic girl giving you a "nice guy" card—telling you to leave while holding your hand, begging you not to go. 先说结论：做交易，尤其是日内短线，压根就没有“补仓”这回事。 很多人一听这话可能觉得太绝对了。亏了不补仓，那不是干等着亏更多吗？别急，往下看。 1. 补仓到底是啥？说白了就是不服气 你买入之后，价格跌了，账面上是亏的。这时候你选择再买一点，想把平均成本拉低，等反弹一点就能回本——这就是补仓。 但问题来了：你在浮亏的时候加仓，本质上就是在逆着市场方向硬扛。市场正在告诉你“你判断错了”，你非但不认，还往里加钱，想证明自己没错。 2. 为什么补仓越补越惨？ 补仓表面上拉低了成本，实际上是在给自己挖坑： 第一，仓位越来越重。 你本来是轻仓，亏了补一点，再亏再补，仓位从轻到重。本来你能扛300点的波动，补完仓之后可能再跌150点就被强制平仓了。容错空间直接被压缩了一半。 第二，亏损速度翻倍。 原来你持有一手，跌1个点亏一份钱；补完仓变成两手，跌1个点亏两份钱。你想着“反弹一点就回本”，但市场继续跌的话，亏损是翻着倍往上走的。 第三，资金被锁死。 钱全填进去了，就算后面有好的机会，你也没子弹了。想割肉又舍不得，不割又走不了，整个人被这笔单子绑死。 有人说“我就补一次，控制好仓位不就行了”。但现实是72 has been stuck all week, not moving at all
The 30-day average is only 66, but these 7 days stubbornly hold at 72.
Current position: Greed zone, but no upward surge.
Both yesterday and today are at 72, no more rise.
Who holds the advantage: Bulls have the edge, but their dominance is too quiet.
Looking back, the 7-day average and the current day completely overlap.
This indicates the sentiment is neutral, not pushing upward.
After staying neutral for so long, short-term positions are most vulnerable to a sudden sharp drop.
My position is still long, with stop loss set below.
Excitement aside, the principal of a five-guarantee household can't withstand a second sharp drop.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ $ZEC $BTC Let's review this round of the market.
This year, Bitcoin hit a low of 57,750, then entered a sideways consolidation for over two months, followed by prolonged oscillation around the 63,000–70,000 range.
What’s truly noteworthy is that there were three clear rallies accompanied by increased trading volume:
The first round, rising from 63,000 to 81,200;
The second round, pushing again from 75,000 up to 82,100;
The third round, which is the most recent wave, breaking through around 80,000 and reaching a high near 87,300.
Looking at the overall structure, 57,750, after long-term oscillation and multiple market tests, can now be regarded as a very important bottom support area this year.
However, I still won’t rush to conclude that the bull market has returned.
What truly deserves attention right now is the 80,000 level.
After three consecutive upward pushes, 80,000 has gradually shifted from a previous resistance zone to a key level that the market needs to reconfirm.
The focus going forward is not guessing the top, but whether 80,000 can hold firm and whether subsequent pullbacks can be defended.
Holding above means the upward structure continues;
Losing it means we need to reassess the validity of this breakout.
So at this stage, 57,750 is the bottom to watch, and 80,000 is the strength indicator.
These two levels are the key coordinates for understanding the structure of this market cycle.$ONE
All in all, I held this position for a full week — actually, a little more than 7 days.
Today, I finally closed the position.
To be honest, my initial position was very small. Every time $ONE reached my psychological entry level, I kept adding a little more.
Two days later, I checked my PnL and was completely stunned.
The price hadn't moved much, but my “realized profit” had already eaten away nearly half of the position I had built.
#DailyOrbit $SOL is fluctuating around $116.8, retesting the 116-117 zone - the old resistance now acting as support on both H1 and D1 timeframes. 📌 Technical: D1: correction back to the breakout zone after testing the $121 peak H1: the 116-117 zone has held twice this week 📌 Upcoming catalyst: Alpenglow upgrade expected on 9/28 - major consensus upgrade Staking rate reached ATH 69.3%, reducing circulating supply ZetaChain chooses to migrate its ecosystem to Solana The 113-114 zone is strong support below if 116-117 does not hold. ⚠️ Not financial advice If the relevant regulations are ultimately implemented, stablecoin issuance may no longer be solely the business of crypto-native companies, but will gradually become a financial product that banks can offer alongside traditional deposit services. What is truly worth paying attention to is: when licensed banks are able to issue stablecoins and rely on stronger regulatory frameworks, capital systems, and bank balance sheets, how will non-bank issuers like USDT and USDC face competition in the future? This could further impact stablecoin market share, liquidity entry points, and the overall capital settlement methods in the crypto market. $BTC may benefit from increased participation by traditional finance, while $ETH is worth watching for its role as the foundation for stablecoins and on-chain settlement infrastructure. #Stablecoin #BTC #ETH #Crypto$BTC has dropped again, now at 84242.6, just a little above the support at 84112. Let me tell you something, I previously lost 200,000 U because I tried to bottom-fish at times like this, thinking it would rebound after such a big drop, but the more I bought, the deeper the loss. Now I've learned my lesson: opening a small position of 5000 U, no holding through losses, always with stop-loss. Current support is 84112, resistance at 84931; if it breaks below 84112, go short with a light position, stop-loss at 84400, target 83500. If it holds at 84112, try a light long position, stop-loss at 83900, target 84900. What do you all think? $ #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ When BTC fell back from 87,000, who exactly was buying around 82,000?
After the rate hike landed on September 16, BTC first surged to 87,000, then steadily declined, touching around 82,000 during yesterday's session. (Today as well)
But I've been observing a small detail these past two days.
BTC is being pushed down, yet the buy orders below haven't noticeably dispersed.
1. On September 21, ETF net inflows approached 1 billion.
2. On the 22nd, there were still over 700 million.
3. On the 23rd, the price continued to fall, but ETFs still had a net inflow of 347 million.
This is quite interesting. (The price is dropping, but spot buying is still coming in. So is it whales accumulating, aiming to get cheaper chips, or retail investors trying to bottom-fish? Worth pondering.)
So I don't really see this wave as simply "rate hikes suppressing BTC."
It seems more like there's heavy pressure above, but someone keeps buying around 82,000.
Otherwise, after the surge to 87,000 and subsequent fall, many expected 78,000 or 79,000 to have been reached already. Hence the core point.
Now I'm watching one thing:
Can the support at 82,000 continue? Can accumulation persist at this level?
$BTC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员: Costco's performance exceeds expectations, Micron takes over
$COST Costco's earnings report really makes people love and hate it at the same time.
Revenue reached 95.7 billion, up 11.1% year-over-year, and net profit increased nearly 15%. Such strong consumer demand indicates the US economy is still hot — but this is not good news for the crypto space. When the economy is good, expectations for rate hikes don't come down, so non-yielding assets like $BTC have to keep enduring.
But I don't have time to worry about Bitcoin right now. The $WDC grid I have, with 168U principal, is at a floating loss of 1.47%, but thanks to the grid strategy, it has stubbornly squeezed out a +7.24% profit. The price is 455, range 430 to 499, liquidation price 180, temporarily safe. Without the grid, this position would have been cut long ago.
What really puts my mind at ease is the optical communication grid running for 41 days. Entered at 78.6, it dropped to a low of 52, and every midnight I nervously watched the liquidation price. Now it has stubbornly recovered to 76.39, total return +32.69%, grid profit +67.25%, and I pushed the liquidation price down to 20.97 with extra margin, completely removing the liquidation alarm.
So facing Micron's earnings report on October 1, I don't want to guess the direction. Costco has already proven consumer demand remains strong, and Micron's AI storage demand is very likely to be good as well. But the logic of “good data = aggressive rate hikes” is still the market's tightening curse.Bitcoin is sideways and dormant, when will $DOGE Dogecoin break free from the dog chain?
21Shares' TDOG ETF has been listed, X Money payment integration is implemented, and the SEC classifies it as a digital commodity, opening a compliance channel. Previously, the expansion of trading functions on the X platform pushed up the price, but there has been a lack of sustained catalysts afterward.
Currently priced at 0.095, suppressed by MA5/10 (0.0956-0.0958), RSI6 is only 40.29, short-term momentum is weak, the death cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remains unchanged, and the long-term structure is still under pressure.
On-chain data shows whales have counter-trend increased holdings by 240 million coins in the past week, with holdings reaching 19 billion; however, some ETF funds are withdrawing, showing a divergence of "big players accumulating, retail investors cutting losses." The 365-day MVRV ratio has dropped to -19.26%, indicating selling pressure is drying up.
CME shows the probability of a rate hike in October has risen to 75%, with high interest rates continuing to suppress risk asset valuations.
Overall, the technical outlook remains weak, but whales are quietly accumulating on-chain. The 0.088-0.091 range is a key accumulation zone, and a volume breakout and hold above 0.0973 would be considered a short-term bullish signal.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $BTC daily outlook
Main expectations remain unchanged.
Key levels for today:
Upside: EQ adjustment into the marked zone -> the area where I look to add another short sell order.
Downside: sweep lows into passive buy orders, take out single liquidity level of ~$500M, then reclaim/reactivate above the low -> a buy trigger signal for me.
No signal, no trade.
Notably: Friday has been bullish on every occurrence in the last 12 times in my pattern. Will the Federal Reserve continue to raise interest rates? Trillion-dollar short-term debt supply + gold outlook
#FederalReserve officials speak intensively, how much longer will rate hikes continue? #Under high interest rates, how far can gold go? #USShortTermDebt supply may increase by trillions $XAU
1. Core question: Will the Federal Reserve raise rates next?
Conclusion: Not necessarily raising rates, but keeping the option open; inflation data is the only switch.
Multiple officials collectively hawkish, the core is not "immediate rate hike," but overturning the market's previously optimistic expectation of early rate cuts, conveying "Higher for Longer".
1. Conditions triggering rate hikes: core CPI, PCE rebound again, oil prices continuously pushing inflation, labor market remains overheated. CME interest rate futures have priced in a higher probability of rate hikes this year; as long as inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, a 25bp hike will happen.
2. Scenario of no rate hike: inflation steadily declines, employment cools down, the Fed maintains rates without further tightening, but rate cuts remain distant.
Key misconception: Many think no rate hike = positive news. The core game now is not "whether to hike," but how long high rates will last. Even if rate hikes stop, maintaining high rates for a long time will continue to suppress risk assets. #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 🏛️ The US government just asked major refiners to cut diesel exports — voluntarily
No mandate, no ban. Just a request
That's the detail most people will skim past $BTC
When a government asks an industry to give something up "voluntarily," it usually means it's already run the numbers and didn't like them. Diesel supply is tight enough that keeping barrels at home is now a priority
$ETH The end of 2026 could be significant for Ethereum.
Glamsterdam includes several major upgrades, one of the goals of which is to bring Ethereum L1's capabilities closer to the low fees and high throughput currently associated with L2s like Base and Robinhood.
Imagine $ETH Ethereum L1 with its level of security, but at the same time with the capabilities of modern L2s.
This could potentially renew interest in L1 as an environment for applications, not just as a settlement layer.
The goal for Glamsterdam's mainnet launch is Q4 2026.
The Sepolia fork is preliminarily scheduled for October 6, then the upgrade should go through Hoodi. After testing, the mainnet date will be determined.
Why might L1 performance increase?
ePBS (EIP-7732) moves the proposer-builder separation to the protocol level. Block propagation time increases from about 2 to 9 seconds, creating conditions for larger blocks.
Block-Level Access Lists (EIP-7928) predefine which accounts and storage slots a block accesses. This opens the way for parallel preloading of data and parallel transaction execution.
The gas limit could increase from about 60 million to 200 million—more than threefold. This limit is already being tested on testnets.
There is also a gas cost revision. According to some estimates, simple transfers and common operations could potentially become about 78% cheaper if demand does not increase proportionally.
If these changes are successfully implemented, Ethereum L1 could attract some applications that today reside on L2 due to cost and limited throughput.
At the same time, L2s will not disappear. Base, Robinhood, and other networks will retain the advantages of cheap data availability, parallel execution, and specialized optimization.
It's more about a new distribution of load.
I think applications that value low latency, atomicity, and composability will be able to reconsider Ethereum L1 as an environment for direct deployment again. $BTC 🔥
📊 【Macro Pressure: Interest-Free Assets Are Being Ground Down】
The Federal Reserve is divided internally. Daly said rates are "about right," but both September CPI and PMI exceeded expectations, and CME rate futures show a 91% chance of a rate hike in December! The 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.11%, and BTC, as an interest-free asset, is being pressed down hard. Expectations of tightening macro liquidity are the core trigger for the short-term sharp drop.
💰 【Industry Deep Waters: Institutional Funds Are Frenziedly Buying】
But Wall Street hasn’t stopped! Morgan Stanley’s MSBT ETF made a single purchase of 1,100 BTC (about $93.89 million), the largest single inflow since its inception! The US spot BTC ETF has had net inflows for 5 consecutive days, totaling $2.65 billion.
This phenomenon of "price falling, institutions buying the dip" is a typical feature of treasury strategies and long-term ETF channel accumulation.
⚠️ 【Derivatives Turning Point: $15.6 Billion Options Test】
Another key variable: $15.6 billion BTC options expire on Friday. The Put/Call ratio is only 0.70, with call options concentrated at $85,000, $90,000, and $100,000. This means long positions are extremely crowded, making sharp short-term spikes up and down very likely.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/25)
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ Originally, I just wanted to get a free breakfast, but the market ended up giving me half a year's worth of dumplings. Around midnight yesterday, $LTC was still bottoming out. I saw the support wasn't broken and that someone was buying below LTC, so I went long immediately. At that time, the market hadn't fully started, and very few dared to get on board; some were still asking if it would crash again.
The market waits for the right moment, and profits come from holding on.
From 60.77 all the way up to 70.82, +826.88% answered that. This gain feels good; the earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet. Those on board must have woken up smiling; those who missed it can only slap their thighs.
Risk control done upfront is called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action.
Take profits on 70% of your long positions first, move the stop loss on the remaining 30% to the cost price, and let profits run if it continues to rise. If it falls back, don't let your gains turn into discomfort. Don't be greedy for the last bite; secure the main portion first.
Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. Move only when the next signal comes out; I'll notify you immediately. The market isn't short of opportunities, it's short of patience.
$XRP $ZEC For 5 consecutive days, money has been flowing into the $ETH ETF.
Yesterday, another $66.01 million was added, with BlackRock alone accounting for $26.8 million.
To put it simply: institutions are buying $ETH, not just for a day or two, but continuously for five days.
From the project side, this is much more important than whether the coin price rises or not.
The coin price is sentiment; ETF inflows are real money.
Currently, the total assets of the $ETH ETF are $17.7 billion, accounting for 5.39% of the total $ETH market cap.
This ratio is not high, but the direction is very steady.
Where is the frustration?
Money is flowing in, but the $ETH price hasn't moved much.
What does this indicate? There are also many sellers; both sides are in a tug of war.
However, to be fair, the continuous inflow itself is more meaningful than a large inflow on a single day.
A single day might be portfolio adjustment; five consecutive days show an attitude.
From now on, just watch one thing: can this inflow continue?
If it continues, $ETH will have a floor. If it stops, it will be the same as before.
The blunt truth is, institutions are voting with their actions, while retail investors are still waiting for price confirmation.
#Ondo推出基于贝莱德策略的代币化投资组合 $ETH Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE: The number of top accounts is more long-biased, but the position distribution is more short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.596, top positions long-short ratio is 0.776; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.208; price increased by 0.41%, position value changed by +0.33%.
$WLD: Both top accounts and top positions are short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.743, top positions long-short ratio is 0.888; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.351; price increased by 0.39%, position value changed by +0.50%. The structure of the top group’s account numbers aligns with the position distribution.
$AVAX: The number of top accounts is more long-biased, but the position distribution is more short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.457, top positions long-short ratio is 0.874; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.223; price increased by 0.48%, position value changed by +0.17%.
DOGE and AVAX: The side dominating in account numbers is opposite to the side dominating in positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
DOGE, WLD, and AVAX: The overall market account structure is long-biased, which also differs from the bias in top positions. $AVAX
AVAX has dropped to 10.2, down 0.46% today, its presence is fading.
Interestingly, the fee rate is 0.0099%, and the open interest has actually risen 0.5% against the trend—price is falling while open interest rises, indicating someone is quietly adding longs. I've seen this kind of divergence many times; it often means someone is stealthily positioning.
AVAX is an established mainnet; it shined in the last bull market but is now heavily criticized. However, the less attention it gets, the more likely it is a good entry point.
There have been no on-chain explosions or project failures. Given how much it has dropped, I believe the opportunity outweighs the risk, so I'm slowly building my position without rushing.
When everyone starts hyping it again, it will be too late.
$AVAX $ONE 🚨 Red light flashing! The long-short crowding list is sounding the alarm!
The positive funding rate is high; the bulls are "paying the toll"! This is no joke, real money is being paid to the shorts.
$ONE: Funding rate +0.1788%, historical 96th percentile (100 settlements), price +3.72%! Bulls are so crowded it’s smoking, costs are painfully high! Price is rising happily, funding is harsh!
$ZEC: Funding rate +0.0100%, historical 100th percentile (100 settlements), price +0.31%! Don’t be fooled by the small funding rate; the percentile is maxed out, crowding is at the top!
$XRP: Funding rate +0.0100%, historical 100th percentile (100 settlements), price +0.33%! Also at 100th percentile, bulls are clustered to the extreme!
In short: Positive funding rate = bulls pay, shorts collect rent. More people, narrower path, higher fees. The rise is lively, crowding is dangerous. Don’t just focus on the price increase; first check how long your queue is!
For data observation only, not investment advice.$DOGE
Will option expirations become the switch for Meme coin volatility?
About $16 billion in BTC options expiring could change market makers' hedging demands. Once BTC volatility increases, high Beta assets like DOGE usually experience larger price swings.
If BTC breaks upward after settlement, DOGE spot trading volume may continue to expand, and sentiment-driven funds might return.
If only DOGE contract positions increase without spot buying following, amplified volatility is more likely to trigger liquidations. The biggest fear in Meme rallies is leverage running first while real funds haven't arrived.🔄 83600 is holding sideways, which of the five cross-market brothers is rotating today?
$BTC near 83672, failed to hold 87000 and dropped back, but 83500 held. Interest rate hike expectations are pressuring, but Strategy is buying with real money, as long as 8300 doesn't break, there's still a chance. Don't chase shorts in the short term, wait for direction 📊
$ENA near 0.21412, up 6.07%, Ethena stablecoin yield token. The market dropped 3% last night but it only fell 1.4%, today the market is stable and it directly surged 6%. 0.20 held, now charging towards 0.22, the stablecoin narrative is not over 💰
$ASTER near 0.7047, up 2.85%, decentralized perpetual contract DEX. It dropped 5.18% to 0.6845 yesterday, today it directly rebounded 2.85%, 0.68 held. When the market stabilizes, DEX rebounds first, retail traders open contracts and it collects fees 📈
$HYPE near 91.703, down 1.17%, Hyperliquid decentralized exchange, 97% protocol revenue buyback. The market is sideways but it’s still falling, 90 is the lifeline, break below and watch 88. There is real income support, buyers step in after big drops 💪
$SNDK near 1770.4, down 3.29%, SanDisk storage chips. #US-Iran resume contact, will risk premium decrease? Geopolitical risk cools but storage chips are falling, AI hardware cooling plus interest rate hike expectations double whammy. 1750 is support, break below watch 1700 📉🤔Multicoin Capital points out that on-chain RWA is not just about moving assets on-chain, but also about activating complex financial needs such as spot trading, buybacks, and hedging, thereby expanding the DeFi ecosystem.
Value will permeate the entire tech stack: L1/L2 public chains earn "tolls" through frequent transactions, core protocols like lending and options collect fees, and brokers integrating collateral across protocols can also take a share.
As institutional large-volume trading increases, privacy protection and portfolio margining become essential.
The former prevents institutions from exposing their trading intentions, while the latter reduces capital usage through cross-asset net settlement.
Projects like Renegade and Zama are exploring these key infrastructures to bring the depth and efficiency of traditional finance into DeFi.
$ONDO $ZAMA $UNI #财报观察员：Costco's performance exceeds expectations, Micron takes over
$MU The US earnings season keeps rolling, starting with retail giant Costco delivering solid results, with stable sales and memberships. Consumer spending is stronger than expected, and overall data surpasses everyone's predictions. But just as the retail heat cools down, the market's attention quickly shifts to the tech sector, with Micron stepping up to the stage.
Costco represents ordinary people's spending habits, while Micron reflects how much the AI industry burns money and needs chip storage. Micron's earnings report exploded, with profits far exceeding expectations. AI servers' demand for memory and storage is insanely high, big companies are scrambling to buy, supply can't keep up, giving the entire tech sector a strong boost. $SNDK
However, two things need to be clear: Costco shows daily consumption is stable but not explosively growing; Micron's boom is entirely supported by AI demand.
Here's the interesting point: on one side, ordinary people are living their normal lives and spending; on the other, AI is wildly investing in expansion. The worry is the market might take Micron's good news as an unlimited positive signal. If big companies reduce purchases later or everyone rushes to build factories and increase capacity, the market could easily turn.
Right now, the market is half watching consumption resilience and half betting on AI prosperity. You can't just focus on the bright data and be blindly optimistic. $BTC
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 ONDO current price is 0.5374, just above the largest liquidation accumulation zone around 0.536. The market logic is straightforward: short positions are concentrated here, and as long as the price holds this area without breaking down, short covering will create upward momentum. The first strong resistance above is at 0.55.
Just sent an order to the old neighborhood on the fifth floor, and my phone keeps buzzing for another order. Can't be sloppy on the market side. MACD is still trending upward, momentum intact, but RSI has entered overbought territory, so the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is decreasing. If volume expands near 0.55 but price stagnates, a sharp pullback is very likely.
Execution specifics: lightly buy on dips between 0.536 and 0.534, set stop loss at 0.529, first take profit at 0.548, and after breaking 0.55, target 0.561. If it directly surges to 0.55 with low volume, focus on reducing positions. A break below 0.529 indicates liquidation structure breakdown, so no long entries.
$ONDO
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？
@OKX星球 🐻 BERA has risen, but has the chain really gotten stronger?
Currently around $0.225, 24H +3.6%, trading volume about $16.3M.
Berachain:
TVL about $36.4M
DEX 24H trading about $1.13M
Stablecoins about $67M
Active addresses about 9,200
New addresses about 171
Price and activity are okay, but new addresses are not high.
So the question is:
Is this wave new money coming in, or old money rebounding?
What do you think?
$BERA
#BERA #BerachainZEC market underlying logic: Leverage retreat is not a market top, but a market shift
Many traders equate leverage liquidation with a market top, which is actually the biggest misconception.
The previous surge in ZEC was largely driven by contract leverage and a cascade of short liquidations causing a short squeeze. Large whale short positions were liquidated, and passive buying pushed prices up, representing a short-term leverage-driven market.
Now that high-level leverage is gradually being cleared and open contracts are shrinking, it means the short liquidation bonus has been exhausted, and leveraged speculative funds are no longer the main buyers.
However, the market has not crashed; the dip to 1456 was quickly recovered. The core reason is: institutional spot funds are taking over.
Grayscale ZCSH and Europe’s 21Shares physical ETPs continue to absorb spot holdings through two compliant channels, with a large amount of ZEC transferred into shielded pools for locking, continuously shrinking circulating supply.
Leverage funds seek quick profits and will stop loss and exit once volatility occurs; institutional spot funds focus on the long-term value of the sector and will not sell off chips due to short-term fluctuations of several dozen points. #ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 The weakest link has never been failing to copy to the bottom, but still looking for a rebound reason for a delisted coin. Is the small position you hold really worth waiting for? Watching ONE these days, my biggest feeling is not anger, but familiarity. After it was removed from mainstream exchanges, it had a short-term rally again, and many people took this as "funds returning." But in my eyes, this looks more like an action to leave an exit for high-position chips. Delisting itself is not the end of the world; the real problem is that it has lost the most core elements: depth, exposure, and sustained buying pressure. Once an asset leaves the main battlefield, what remains is often not value discovery but a stock game. Looking at sector strength from another angle makes it clearer. The currently strong directions are either supported by major mainlines like BTC and ETH or have clear narratives and incremental attention. ONE is not in this group. Its recent rebound looks more like the typical bull trap rhythm seen in weak sectors: a pull-up to make hesitant people think it will recover, then continuing to drain liquidity. Once the psychological level of 0.00059 is broken, market sentiment will shift faster to the "zero narrative." This is not alarmism but a common path dependency for delisted coins. The bullish logic is not entirely absent either. If the overall market suddenly strengthens, altcoin sentiment warms up, and oversold coins may have a pulse-like rebound, shorts might also cover in the short term. But these opportunities belong to trading rhythm, not position conviction. What should be more cautious about is that many mistake "a big drop" for "risk fully released," ignoring that the structural damage caused by delisting is not yet over. So my100x leverage, 400u.
You call this trading?
This is delivering takeout for the exchange.🛵
BTC holds steady at 80,000,
but can't hold 90,000.
So a pullback at the high is inevitable,
take profits at 87, 88, 89,
long-term? Leave it to fate.
Support at 82,000,
81,000 is the last bottom.
The probability of breaking 80,000 is extremely low—
but you set your stop loss at 80,500.
You say it won’t break,
but your hands set the escape price first.
The body is more honest than the mouth.😏
Take profits and reduce position on shorts,
still holding MUBARAK and one?
If it doesn’t rise beyond 2 hours,
cut heavy positions.
Focus on longs,
take profits and stop losses,
don’t get carried away.
Not confident?
Right side,
at least 3 consecutive 15-minute candles in the same direction.
Translation:
Wait for the market to finish moving before getting in,
then slap your thigh.
This is not a trading strategy.
This is a wishing well.
100x long,
take profit at 88,500,
stop loss at 80,500.
Good luck,
don’t get liquidated.🙏
$BTC $ETH
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 Brother Maji's account floating profit was 3.96 million two days ago, but today it's down to 780,000.
On September 22, he added positions in ETH and HYPE, and the floating profit once surged to 3.96 million. Two days later, the market corrected, and the floating profit narrowed to 780,000. ETH position floating profit is 1.02 million, HYPE's 217,000 tokens have a floating loss of 270,000, BTC has 108 coins left with almost no profit, and there is a newly opened 600,000 PUMP with a floating profit of 4,700.
But what puzzles me most is not how much he lost, but that he added positions while losing.
HYPE has a floating loss of 270,000, but he didn't cut it. He also opened a 10x PUMP position of 600,000, not big, more like testing. ETH has been holding steady, 36,000 coins, 1.02 million floating profit, the whole account is supported by this single pillar.
I understood one thing: Maji is not trading, he is betting on a direction, using ETH as a spear and other positions as expendables.
He has been liquidated 335 times in total, liquidated 10 times consecutively within 8 hours, and the account only has 52,000 USD left. I know this person very well. But the same person can roll 150,000 into 12.8 million in three days. He never survives by playing it safe, but by daring to risk everything every time.
Now he is focusing on ETH, betting that the correction is over. If he wins, the account doubles; if he loses, history repeats.
Honestly, I don't envy how much he earns, nor do I mock how many times he has blown up. What I envy is his spirit—knowing the high probability of losing, yet still daring to go all in.
$BTC $ETH It's the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a floating loss of 90,000. I even refunded my ticket home. I don't know if my choice was wrong from the start. AKE's volatility is huge, with both high and low positions being taken and liquidated. I felt LTC could reach 70 the day before yesterday, but I still couldn't resist shorting at 68. ONE is a stock with a very good trend. Brothers who missed the market can watch other options. The recent market feels more like a cooling of emotions. I no longer have the energy to gamble. It's been a long time since I woke up without checking my account. Just reflecting a bit, happy Mid-Autumn Festival $LTC $ONE $AKE Day 26, single-day profit of 18,005.37 yuan. The account's cumulative profit and loss turned positive to +18,005.37 yuan, with three consecutive days of profit, finally climbing out of the deep pit after four consecutive days of sharp declines. BTC ETH
On September 23, the market was a double-edged sword for bulls and bears. BTC hovered between 86,000 and 87,000, spiked to 87,000, then quickly dropped to 84,015; ETH fell from above 2,800 to 2,651, dropping more than 3% in 24 hours. Nearly 389 million was liquidated across the network in 12 hours, with longs taking the brunt. Altcoins like UNI and ARB suffered double-digit pullbacks, and leveraged positions were bloodied.
Behind this is macroeconomic pressure: the US 10-year Treasury yield surged to around 5.11%, the 30-year touched 5.44%, transmitting pressure from stocks and bonds to risk assets; PMI and input prices rose, inflation expectations reversed, interest rate paths turned hawkish again, oil remained high, and liquidity expectations were suppressed. On the crypto side, ETFs and institutions are slow money and cannot stop short-term deleveraging.
Turning positive was not about predicting volatility but about preemptively withdrawing positions from thin liquidity and high beta. Only clear structures were kept in the mainstream, with stop-losses and positions prepared for "false breakout" scenarios. Next, BTC support is expected at 85,000 and 83,000, with a recovery only confirmed if it holds above 87,400; ETH is expected between 2,650 and 2,700. Until macro conditions ease, do not chase spikes or catch falling knives $BTC $ETH $ZEC Bought $ONE at a low of 0.0015529, now it has risen to 0.0020336 (an increase of 28.52%). It fluctuated repeatedly overnight, finally bouncing back a bit. Be careful of volatility and oscillations when entering the market!
Chasing highs and selling lows caused me to lose 500 U in a week. Every time I went all-in with high leverage, I basically got liquidated at a 4.5% drawdown, and had to cut losses and exit at a 2% drawdown. This operation made me reflect on whether my strategy was flawed. Finally, when my loss left me with only 45 yuan, I learned the first lesson of the crypto world. I steadily doubled my principal from 45 yuan to 80 yuan. I call this the "Dragon Field Enlightenment"!
Today is also the Mid-Autumn Festival. I wish all crypto friends a happy holiday, family reunion, and hope you achieve great results soon!"Brent crude oil surges to $100, but the $6 trillion on-chain business is just getting started"
The recent movement of BZ contracts has been even more thrilling than BTC. The US-Iran situation keeps fluctuating, pushing Brent crude from $97.77 all the way back above $100, breaking the $100 mark for the third time this year. But the real drama is with the whales on Hyperliquid — one player went long on BRENTOIL 60 times in a row, winning only a few trades out of 59 longs, and finally got stopped out at $84.99, losing a total of $2.86 million. The brutal long-short battle is evident just from this data.
Meanwhile, something else is happening on-chain. Oil veteran Baron Lamarre’s LITRO project aims to bring the $6 trillion oil market onto the blockchain — each token corresponds to 1 liter of real crude oil, minted only after independent audits verify reserves, supports physical delivery, and targets a launch in January 2027. Traditional oil settlements currently take 90 days, but LITRO wants to completely compress this supply chain using smart contracts.
On one side, contract traders are repeatedly getting harvested around the $100 mark; on the other, the infrastructure for tokenizing oil assets is quietly laying the groundwork. In the short term, BZ is watching if the $100 integer level can hold, but the real game-changer is — when crude oil trades on-chain 24/7 like BTC, the current contract trading methods might become completely obsolete. $BZ Today this account is basically robbing Peter to pay Paul, relying entirely on LAB to save it, just to fill the holes in BEAT and ZEC, and in the end still made a 50U profit. This is not for the faint-hearted.
Position review:
$LAB: Truly my big winner! Isolated 10x short from 0.06796 down to 0.05613, made 724U (+210%) in one go. The trend was so smooth, planning to take half profits at 0.055 and let the rest fly a bit more.
$BEAT: This one is stubborn! Fully 10x short at 0.0821, now up to 0.0873, lost 316U. Although stuck and painful, the position is light, so I’m just playing dead—no adding, no cutting, let’s see who outlasts whom.
$ZEC: Even more ridiculous, fully 20x short at 1067, but it rebounded to 1452, directly hitting me for 359U (-528%). Luckily bought a small amount, just consider it a costly lesson, will hold and wait for a pullback.
Sigh, friends, the profits just barely cover the losses, maybe that’s the balance of trading. You get some gains but have to take some hits. As long as the big picture is right, holding light positions and enduring might bring a turnaround tomorrow.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
292 million stolen, the bridge party and the auditor started fighting first
KelpDAO sued LayerZero and the co-founders together.
The complaint is very straightforward: you reviewed my configuration in writing, now that something went wrong, you say the responsibility is mine.
What’s even more ridiculous is the timeline: the attack happened in April, but the lawsuit was only filed in September. During these five months, both sides publicly blamed each other.
What are they betting on: LayerZero dares to respond to the lawsuit, indicating they have the right to interpret that audit document. Kelp dares to sue, meaning it believes that written approval equals taking responsibility.
Whether to join or not: retail investors can’t get involved in this kind of lawsuit, but the rsETH cross-chain bridge has already moved away. The real question is who will cover the hole in the old bridge.
Let me reverse calculate: 116,500 rsETH against 292 million, unit price about 2,500 USD. Whoever holds this debt will feel the pain.
What do you think will happen in the end, an out-of-court settlement or dragging it out until no one remembers?
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $HYPE $PEPE Originally planned to cut losses as a sacrifice, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the losses cooked themselves
During the bottom grinding in the chart, I watched PEPE pull back and stabilize, the buying pressure gradually strengthening, with support below. This kind of structure deserves at least one trade to respect the chart. I gave a bullish signal around 0.000003941, not hyping it up, just saying hold if support holds, exit if it breaks.
Now at 0.000004396, up +578.53%, nailed it. The patience paid off, timing was right, those on board should be waking up smiling, the earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet.
First, take profits: pocket 70% gains, move the stop to cost price for the remaining 30%, let profits run if it continues up, and a pullback won't erase gains.
Don't let profits inflate your ego, don't despair over pullbacks.
Panic comes from lack of plan, losses come from overthinking.
Now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. Opportunities remain, no need to hurry, wait for new structure, I'll notify immediately.
$BNB $ZEC Long-term logic: Why I am bullish on the big picture
First, institutions are accumulating. In the past three weeks, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow of about $3.8 billion. BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day inflow of $117 million, accounting for 67% of the total inflow that day. Strategy holdings have risen to 846,000 BTC, with an average cost of $75,416, currently floating a profit of about $8 billion. Institutions' average cost is far below the current price, giving them enough profit buffer to withstand volatility and they won't easily dump their holdings.
Second, the miners' cost line is a strong support. A production cost of $85,000 means that around this price level, miners will not sell off massively. Only a sustained drop below the cost line would force miners to sell coins. This is a natural "floor"; unless a systemic crash occurs, the space to fall below $80,000 is limited.
Third, short positions are betting between $90,000 and $100,000. The put/call ratio in the options market is only 0.71, with call options dominating, and a large concentration of positions at the $90,000 and $100,000 strike prices. If the market makers dump at $84,000, it would be like giving these call option holders free profits, so they won't do that. The more likely operation by market makers is: first push the price up to force shorts to cover, causing call option holders to take profits and create selling pressure, then pull back.The overall market is falling, but LTC has instead risen nearly 8%. This time, I don't want to simply explain it with the word "catch-up."
In the past 24 hours, BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL have all been weak, but LTC has clearly strengthened.
What's even more interesting is the on-chain data:
Within one day, the Litecoin network transferred over 17 million LTC, equivalent to more than 1 billion USD.
Moreover, LTC's cumulative increase this month has already approached 37%.
Of course, this data doesn't prove it will continue to rise.
But at least it shows one thing:
This rise isn't just the candlestick moving on its own; network usage and capital attention are indeed heating up.
Sometimes, when looking at a coin, focusing only on the price can easily cause you to miss the real changes happening behind the scenes.
#LTC #Litecoin #CryptoCommunity #Cryptocurrency Only 4 out of 20 companies have stock prices worth more than their holdings.
I casually calculated that the remaining 16 companies are basically being discounted by the market.
The most interesting part of this isn't the numbers, but how it exposes the entire model's foundation.
Previously, treasury companies told a story: issue stocks → buy coins → stock price rises → issue more stocks.
Now it's reversed: when the stock price is below the holdings, issuing stocks is like selling yourself cheap; who would still play along?
The path of financing to buy coins has turned from arbitrage into pure loss.
My first reaction isn't bearishness, but curiosity about why those 4 companies can still trade at a premium.
Is it because people truly believe, or is the market cap too small for anyone to dump?
What do you think: will these 16 companies cut their holdings first, or cut themselves first?
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ $HYPE A wallet dormant for 4 years just moved out 4,500 BTC, worth about $381 million.
Lookonchain data shows that the address bc1qln transferred out 4,500 BTC all at once after being silent for over four years.
When these coins were originally received, they were worth about $187 million; now the valuation has doubled to about $381 million.
In the intervening years, there were almost only dust-level small deposits, and today the entire amount was suddenly moved out.
At the same time, expectations for Fed rate hikes are heating up, but BTC is still hovering around $84,000 and hasn’t crashed through.
My view: a whale waking up doesn’t mean an immediate dump, but under rate hike expectations, this is a liquidity signal to watch closely.
I’m not chasing longs yet; I’m treating $84,000 as an observation level.
Invalidation condition: a volume-driven drop below $83,000 and continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
Do you think this is a position rotation or a prelude to selling?
$BTC $IBIT $ETH
#FedResumesRateHikes, WhyDoesBTCRemainResilient? #USLongTermBondYieldsKeepRising, FinancingPressureIncreasesLong positions worth 171 million USD have entered, with two giant whales going long simultaneously—this is no small matter. BTC current price is 84219, the Fibonacci 0.5 level at 83780 is holding, the structure is intact. But MACD shows a shrinking bearish crossover, short-term momentum is clearly weakening, so don't rush to chase.
Just cleaned up last night's takeout boxes at the gatehouse, now back to watching the market.
The liquidation map is very clear: long stop losses are stacked between 83500 and 84000, while short stop losses are all above 85000. There is liquidity waiting to be taken on both sides, a typical two-way squeeze. This kind of market grinds first, with narrow-range oscillations to repair indicators.
In terms of operation, 84500 is the watershed. If it holds above, there's a high probability of a bull trap to sweep short liquidity above 85000; you can lightly go long with take profit at 85300 and stop loss at 83900. If it breaks below 83700, look directly to 82900 for a pullback, then reverse to short with take profit at 83200 and stop loss at 84100.
Remember, in this liquidity hunting market, the direction is revealed by waiting, not guessing. Don't open positions randomly in the middle; wait for it to choose itself.
$BTC
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
@OKX星球 Took profit on part of the Bitcoin spot position and converted it into crcl's martingale for defense, because there might be another rate hike in October. However, crcl's revenue relies entirely on U.S. Treasury bonds, so the higher the Treasury yield, the bearish it is for Bitcoin, but bullish for crcl. Moreover, this kind of volatility is very suitable for opening a martingale.