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#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
The scariest things during earnings season are two kinds of voices: one that blows things up to the sky, and one that tramples them into the ground. This Q3 report from TSMC feels more like a halftime whistle: not to make you celebrate wildly, but to remind you to look up and see which way the wind is blowing.📈
Net profit exceeded expectations, and earnings hit a record high—these eight words are very uplifting, but the real value lies in the underlying structure. The fire of AI is not burning concepts, but capacity, yield, and delivery. TSMC just happens to stand at the intersection of three roads: advanced process technology, advanced packaging, and major customer orders. While others are still saying "we also value AI," it is already collecting AI's electricity fees, tolls, and bridge fees.🧱
Many people easily misunderstand one point: they think the chip cycle is over and that recovery depends on phones. Now it’s more like the old business hasn’t been lost, and a new engine has been ignited. High-performance computing, AI accelerators, and data centers are expanding the table for advanced process technology; advanced packaging is in tight supply, turning "can do" into "can deliver on time," which is the source of profit elasticity. Plus, its pricing discipline has always been strict; when the market is good, it doesn’t take orders submissively, so the profit statement looks better than the revenue statement.
The second misunderstanding is treating exceeding expectations as the end point. Exceeding expectations only means the past three quarters outperformed the market’s guesswork; the next quarter depends on how capital expenditures are spent, whether overseas factories ramp up smoothly, and whether major customers’ inventories start to pretend to sleep again. Especially the AI chain has an old problem: when orders heat up, the whole industry gets carried away together, and a slight turn can lead to a fierce correction.$APR is bearish, current price 0.05, with 8 days left until the cliff unlock on 10-23. After one more day, it will enter the critical last 7 days to watch. We backtested events from 2024-2026 where unlock volume exceeded 10% of circulation; about three-quarters underperformed the market in the week before unlock, with consistent direction across two sample periods. After the unlock day, there is no stable direction, so the pressure is concentrated before the unlock, not on the day itself. Currently, the market is very thin, with trading volume and contract open interest near zero, and a daily amplitude of 31.3%. Even a small sell order can create a long wick. Long positions worth $250,000 were liquidated in 24 hours, while shorts only $20,000; the funds taking longs are still being cleared. The RSI at 27 looks low, but the supply pressure from the unlock is ahead, and the weak zone can last a long time; oversold conditions cannot support a decent rebound. In the last week, watch two things: whether the intraday low of 0.0441 will be broken, and whether volume can pick up during a rebound. If $APR recovers above 0.0579 and holds during this week, the bearish view is invalidated and turns bullish. #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue may have exceeded expectations, so what will be tested at the earnings conference on Thursday?
In fact, TSMC's third-quarter revenue was announced some time ago, about $46.7 billion, which is higher than the company's forecast range of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The earnings conference on Thursday will not test the revenue, but rather the costs behind this revenue.
The first test is the gross profit margin. The guidance for the third quarter is between 65% and 67%, with an average of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the 67.7% in the second quarter,#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
$TSM
TSMC's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations: revenue of 989.92 billion TWD (approximately 33.1 billion USD), up 30.3% year-over-year; net profit of 452.3 billion TWD, up 39.1% year-over-year; gross margin of 59.5%. 2nm mass production accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, advanced processes of 7nm and below account for 79%; HPC accounts for 57%, supported by AI demand. Full-year USD revenue growth forecast revised up to 34%~36%, capital expenditure increased to 40~42 billion USD.
However, after the earnings report, TSM's US stock fell 1.56%, xTSM fell 1.53%. Reasons: first, the stock price hit a new high before the report, profit-taking after positive news; second, US-China trade tensions suppress sentiment; third, the market focuses more on Q4 guidance and capital expenditure details, with doubts about the sustainability of AI demand; fourth, geopolitical risk premium.
Follow-up focus: Q4 revenue guidance of 32.2~33.4 billion USD, gross margin 59%~61%; most institutions maintain buy ratings with high target prices, but short-term trading is influenced by expectation fulfillment and macro uncertainty. Overall fundamentals remain strong, the stock price pullback is not due to fundamental deterioration, key factors are Q4 guidance and AI demand sustainability.$SOL is now around 102. From the recent high above 116, it has dropped about 14%. To buy spot, you need to clarify two things first: how deep these kinds of pullbacks usually go, and where there is real volume.
The depth of pullbacks has been statistically analyzed. In the past two years, the median maximum drop within one month after SOL falls from a 60-day high is about 16%. Based on this median, this pullback is still a bit short, corresponding roughly to the 96 to 98 range.
This range is not an isolated number. In September, there were three low points around there, and the 90-day moving average is also near 96 now. The median pullback, previous lows, and the moving average all point to the same zone.
This area is where you can consider buying the first batch during this pullback. If it falls to this level, then consider buying; if it doesn't, then wait and don't chase.
Looking further down, volume concentration matters. In the past six months, the thickest turnover range was between 84 and 86, with a trading volume around $5.5 billion. Another volume cluster is between 74 and 76, formed in July. Volume near 102 is thin, so buying here is like catching in mid-air.
The probability is not bad either. In the past two years, there have been over 200 days when the price dropped more than 15% in a month. The median return in the following month was about a 6% gain, with a 60% chance of rising, though the worst case saw a 30% drop.
So these two ranges are key: 96 to 98 is the first batch to consider, 84 to 86 is the next batch. Don't act in between; if it breaks below 74, stop buying and wait for volume to build up again before making a move.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 financial report once again exceeded expectations: revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit increased 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, both hitting record highs. Advanced process nodes now account for 79%, with 2nm contributing 8% of wafer revenue, and AI demand continues to be the strongest support.
However, the market reaction was relatively calm, with a slight pullback in related stocks. The reason is simple—Q3 strength was already expected; the real determinant of future trends is the Q4 revenue guidance and capital expenditure stance. If the guidance only meets expectations, the market may choose to take profits; if the gross margin guidance is below Q2's 67.7%, and whether capital expenditure will continue to be raised, these will be key points to watch.
TSMC remains the most certain semiconductor stock globally, but the higher the certainty, the higher the valuation. Every upcoming guidance will be scrutinized by the market with a magnifying glass. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
Revenue of 1.49 trillion is just the obvious part; watch these three things in Thursday's earnings report
TSMC's Q3 revenue was 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, up 50% year-on-year, a record high — but this was already known, announced last week. The real highlights of the October 15 earnings report are the following three points.
First, gross margin. Guidance is 65%-67%, while Q2 was 67.7%. Morgan Stanley directly estimates 67.5%, and the market is fully betting on the high end. Whether the high utilization of N3/N5 and AI premium can offset the 2nm ramp-up and overseas factory dilution depends on this figure.
Second, full-year guidance. Morgan Stanley expects an upward revision from "over 40%" to mid-40%, with Q4 dollar revenue up 11% quarter-on-quarter. Whether AI orders show marginal weakening will be revealed in the earnings call.
Third, 2027 capital expenditure. Goldman Sachs has already called for $85 billion. If they dare to increase it further, it shows confidence in AI orders; if not, it signals demand has peaked.
Another exciting data point: the options market is betting on a ±5% stock price swing after the earnings, while the average of the past four times was only 2.87%. Expectations are already maxed out, and at this level, the biggest fear is "good news already priced in" — no matter how good the numbers are, if the guidance is soft, the stock price will still be hammered.
One sentence for the crypto community: don't overweight AI-themed coins ahead of the earnings. TSMC is a sentiment booster, not the main BTC storyline; the market still watches US Treasury yields and ETF fund flows. On Thursday morning, will you be waiting for the earnings call or waking up to see the results? Want to chase just because of a rebound? First, check if the contract funds have really moved. Have you noticed that the price bounced, but the big money is actually still exiting? When I watch the market myself, this "looks like it's rising" illusion is what I fear most. BTC has a 24-hour net outflow of $689 million, $2.624 billion over a week, and a cumulative $6.144 billion over 30 days. Only a 1-hour window shows a net inflow of $33.24 million, but such a short window can't change the big cycle's bleeding rhythm. ETH is even more obvious, with a 24-hour net outflow of $990 million, $2.524 billion over a week, and $6.801 billion over 30 days. There are net inflows of $70.29 million and $58.47 million in 2-hour and 4-hour windows respectively, but a 12-hour window still shows a net outflow of $401 million. What does this structure indicate? It means short-term funds are grabbing the rebound, but mid-to-long-term positions are still withdrawing. Once funding rates turn negative or long positions become crowded, squeeze risks will increase. SOL shows resilience in the short term, with net inflows of $35.01 million over 8 hours and $28.05 million over 12 hours. But the long-term data is insufficient to confirm that funds have truly returned. ZEC has a 24-hour net outflow of $139 million, $364 million over a week, and sporadic short-term inflows that can't support the overall picture. Currently, the market is actually trading on "rate cut expectations + short-term oversold rebound" front-running, not on incremental capital entering. If BTC and ETH perpetual positions continue to decline and funding rates remain neutral to negative, the rebound is more likely short sellers covering rather than new longs entering. On the altcoin side, if SOL's relative strength can't drive the whole sector, capital preference will still be defensive US September CPI exploded again! Crude oil and US Treasuries are "clashing," so where should our money go?
CPI exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%! Energy prices surged 5.2% in one month, with gasoline contributing more than half of the rise...
In other words, the "monster" of inflation hasn't been suppressed; instead, it has been "revived" with the help of the Middle East conflict 😂
Let's talk about US Treasuries first, this is the real "main event"!
According to the old script, when CPI spikes, US Treasuries should be sold off and yields should soar, right? But BlackRock did something big this week—they ended a six-year underweight in US Treasuries and turned to overweight short-term bonds.
The reason: yields are already at a 24-year high, with the 10-year at 5.25%, just the interest alone is very attractive. Citi was "dragged into the pit" and forced to change its stance 😂 from "no more rate hikes this year" to "one more hike in December"~
What about crude oil? The logic is even simpler: geopolitics is the biggest call option~
Gasoline rose 9.1%, diesel even more fiercely, up 67.7% year-to-date. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, global oil and gas transport is "choked," as long as the Middle East remains unstable, oil prices won't come down. But on the flip side, high interest rates will suppress demand, so don't expect prices to double again~
What about the crypto world we care most about?
CZ once said a big truth, "AI is great, but it can't protect you from inflation, but $BTC can." $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 🚨 South Korean stock market flash crash! KOSPI plunges 7% triggering a circuit breaker, is the AI bubble accelerating its burst? 📉
On October 15, South Korea's KOSPI index plunged 7% due to intensified global AI chip sell-off, triggering a trading halt! The index hit a new low since late July, falling for 7 consecutive days (the longest decline in 2024). Although it still rose about 30% year-to-date, it has retraced about 39% from the June peak.
💥 The truth behind the plunge:
1️⃣ High interest rate pressure: US inflation exceeded expectations, raising market concerns about prolonged high interest rates, putting pressure on tech stock valuations.
2️⃣ AI faith shaken: Investors question AI investment returns, causing a global tech stock bubble burst.
3️⃣ Massive foreign capital withdrawal: Single-day sell-off of about 29 trillion KRW (approximately 2.15 billion USD), completely breaking the support level!
4️⃣ Weight drag backlash: Samsung Electronics fell 9%, SK Hynix dropped 11%, the high concentration of semiconductor giants triggered a stampede.
Global AI hardware trading is experiencing the darkest moment of "high interest rates + financing bottlenecks + profit-taking." South Korea has become the eye of the deleveraging storm, warning of risk transmission to peripheral markets!
Affected by $SKHYNIX, $SNDK has also been steadily declining, even last night's rebound was completely sold off. Can SanDisk turn the situation around tonight?
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ #LumentumQ1OpticalGrowth Altcoins feel like they've been forgotten in the corner? Friends show off their holdings: BTC and ETH are floating profits, while DOGE and PEPE keep rallying all the way. All you can do is joke, "Trash coins are like buying lottery tickets."
The market logic loop for trash coins is ruthless:
When BTC rises, funds are drained from altcoins; when BTC is sideways, no one dares to move; when BTC falls, panic first hits the trash coins. In short, whether BTC goes up, down, or sideways, altcoins can't find a reason to rise.
Behind this is the issue of emotional pricing power. Investors are unwilling to bear uncertainty; trash coins feed on attention, sentiment, and marginal buying. Once that shrinks, any rebound is very short-lived.
There is only one way to break the deadlock: BTC stabilizes, ETH follows, then risk appetite will overflow. The first to move will definitely be those with communities and narratives; trash coins usually lag in rebounds.
But if BTC is sideways and ETH is weak, every altcoin pump is just a window for selling, and structural differentiation is the most frustrating.
Don't guess when DOGE or PEPE will rise; watch if risk appetite can be delivered.
The spring for altcoins is never something you wait for, it’s something that overflows. #Anthropic称三季度营收升至168亿美元并实现盈利
Can large model providers really make big money by selling services?
Recently, Anthropic's Q3 financial report was released, showing quarterly revenue soaring to $16.8 billion, a nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter increase, even achieving adjusted profitability and positive cash flow. These numbers are indeed impressive, giving a strong boost to the somewhat anxious AI market recently $Anthropic
However, from a business logic perspective, this precisely indicates that large models are accelerating toward polarization, with leading players starting to harvest profits through high retention of enterprise clients, while small and medium players are directly dragged down by high computing power costs.
Although the quarter-over-quarter growth rate shows signs of slowing, as long as the ecosystem barriers are established, the profit-making effect will spread throughout the entire industry chain.
The upcoming AI arms race will shift from burning money to compete on scale to refined operations competing on profitability. As it challenges the highest-ever valuation IPO, the upstream and downstream supply chains and computing infrastructure will usher in a new round of valuation reshaping.
$NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL
DYORBreaking down a popular prediction from last year: Ali Charts calculated a BTC bottom of 37,500 in October 2026 based on a cyclical model. In reality, the low in July was 57,000, 52% higher than the model predicted, and now it's even 81,000. It's not that the model is useless; it's that ETFs and institutional entry have changed the rules of the game. Trying to mark the boat to find the sword, but the boat has already been replaced.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Bullish on Netflix into Q3.
Guidance is 12% revenue growth and a 33.2% operating margin, up from 28.2% a year ago. Q2 margin already beat guidance, and Netflix usually guides conservatively, so I expect a small beat.
Ads are the upside surprise. Analysts cut Q3 ad estimates by 7.5% to ~$834M, so the bar is low. If Netflix confirms its ~$3B ad revenue target, the stock could rally.
Main risk: slowing growth and soft Q4 guidance.
Not financial advice. On the surface, it's all praise like "Big brother finally stopped being reckless," but the position structure actually tells a different story. Is the direction where real money is bet the same as the lively talk? Seeing Maji's set of positions, my first reaction wasn't to follow, but to be stunned for a moment. The total contracts amount to about 59.76 million USD, with a very clear stance: short BTC, short HYPE, long ETH. On the surface, it looks like a "steady big brother transformation," but breaking it down, three assets, three leverage levels, three profit and loss states—it's actually using derivatives structure to express a judgment on the rhythm, not simply bullish or bearish. First, BTC. 40x short, opened at 84070, liquidation at 108297, unrealized profit about 220,000 U, and collected 56,600 U in funding fees. This position is comfortable because the buffer is thick, the price is still far from liquidation, indicating it's not betting on a short-term crash, but more like hanging an attitude at a high level: as long as there is no effective breakout, the shorts will continue to collect fees. What the market is really trading here is "limited rebound height," not "imminent bear turn." Next, ETH. 25x long, opened at 2541, unrealized loss about 340,000 U, liquidation at 1616. This is the only long in the whole set and the one I care about most. It seems to say: if the market still has some breath left, I prefer to bet on ETH rather than BTC. The problem is, with unrealized loss plus leverage, the margin for error is not wide; if the market continues to weaken, this long will become the most fragile part of the portfolio. The most dramaticStill stubbornly holding long positions above 1500? You're not bottom fishing; you're the main force's "human fuel"!
The market never lacks "suicide squads," only clear-headed, understanding people — when the Korean stock market triggers a circuit breaker and Hynix plunges 11%, your long positions become the perfect "bag holders" under selling pressure.
Why the plunge?
Look at two trump cards: First, the KOSPI index plunged 8% triggering a circuit breaker, foreign capital fled wildly, dragging the crypto market down; second, look at the liquidation map, the 1500-1600 range you obsess over is exactly the dense area of SNDK short liquidations. The main force pumps the price up to blow out shorts, then immediately dumps, and you chase longs at this point, becoming the "fuel" being harvested.
Unwinding strategy:
RSI has dropped to 10.81, severely oversold, but MACD shows a bearish crossover opening downward, blindly adding positions is a big taboo. Strategy one: decisively reduce positions and cut losses when it rebounds to 1355-1370 (Bollinger lower band) to reduce risk; strategy two: if your position is heavy and unleveraged, don’t cut losses at 1334, wait for the second dip after the oversold rebound before exiting.
Yesterday we precisely shorted at 1450, but you went long against the trend at 1500.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $SNDK #Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 High probability of returns exceeding expectations US September CPI year-on-year at 3.7% again exceeded expectations, with energy prices rising 5.2% in one month; gasoline contributed more than half of the increase, and diesel has surged 67.7% year-to-date. Inflation hasn't been suppressed; instead, it has become more stubborn with the boost from the Middle East situation.
The strange thing is US Treasuries. Normally, a CPI spike would lead to sell-offs, but BlackRock ended six years of underweighting and shifted to overweight short-term bonds, reasoning that the 10-year yield is already at a 24-year high, making the interest alone very attractive; Citibank also reversed its stance, changing from "no more rate hikes this year" to "one more hike needed in December."
Crude oil is supported by geopolitics; as long as the Middle East remains unstable, oil prices won't come down, but high interest rates will suppress demand, so don't expect a doubling. The total supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million; as fiat currency keeps increasing and inflation data worsens, its scarcity narrative only becomes stronger.
$BTCOn the 13th, the BTC ETF still had a net inflow of 176 million, but once the CPI was released, it immediately turned into a net outflow of 150 million on 10/14. Institutions have no faith, only risk control lines. ETF flows are lagging indicators; using them as leading indicators can easily get you cut.In the past two days, there has been a noticeable increase in people talking about Paola on X Layer. The community mainly has two reasons:
1. From October 19 to 26, X Layer is holding a "Community Certified Token" trading competition with a prize pool of $50,000.
2. The community says its trading pair is a tokenized stock related to Pop Mart.
For the first point, I checked the official announcement. The original text states: The list of participating tokens will only be announced when the event goes live on October 19; tokens that have participated in previous trading competitions cannot participate again.
So "only Paola qualifies" is still community speculation; the official statement does not say this. The announcement also mentions that the community certification label is only a reference and does not represent a recommendation.
There is another detail that beginners might want to note.
Last night at 20:48, Wang Duanniao posted that he is optimistic about Paola (he also mentioned he holds it and is currently underwater). Looking back at the K-line, the buying volume started to increase 1-2 hours before his post.
I'm not saying who is right or wrong. Just a reminder: when you see a KOL's post, you are usually not among the earliest buyers.
I will wait for the official list on the 19th before deciding whether to participate. This does not constitute investment advice.
$SOL Altcoin season index is 62, which does not mean altcoins are collectively taking off.
Funds are indeed flowing out from $BTC.
But the outflow volume is limited.
The logic of this indicator:
Take the top 50 altcoins by market cap and see how many have outperformed $BTC.
62 means just over 60%, a true full launch requires seeing 85.
My action:
Reduced some BTC, added $ETH and $ZEC.
The problem is, the index stopped at 62, it didn’t cross the 75 threshold.
Lesson learned: sector rotation only benefits a portion of the assets.
Those forgotten by funds can remain stagnant to the point you question reality.
Greed index at 63 indicates market sentiment is heating up. But hot sentiment doesn’t mean every asset is being taken care of.
Most likely, the market will continue to diverge, the strong get stronger, the weak keep lying flat. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
The South Korean stock market took another heavy hit today, nearly dropping 8 points intraday. It's not just Korea; the global tech sector is feeling the pressure too.
Simply put, it's the same old logic: semiconductor chips are the backbone of the Korean stock market. When expectations for memory chips shift, the whole market can't hold up.
On top of that, there have been multiple reports of security vulnerabilities on financial and crypto trading platforms, with user information leaks. Regulators are tightening oversight, which adds to market anxiety.
Now, global tech stocks are like locusts on the same rope. Weakness in AI and memory sectors in the US market directly affects Korea and then spreads further. This panic easily drags down the crypto space as well, putting more pressure on tech-related coins. $SKHYNIX
Don't rush to bottom-fish during this collective panic; declines often have momentum.
Until market sentiment stabilizes, watch more and act less. Don't assume a bigger drop means a bargain. $BTC $ETH
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythmThere is still a large dense area of long liquidations below $BTC — before a real rebound, the price is very likely to first sweep through this liquidity.
What happens after the sweep? The liquidity map will clearly shift upward. If the price returns near the high of the range, the short liquidation amount will reach about 7 billion USD. This is the magnet attracting the price upward.
A short-term pullback is still possible, but I have already made arrangements, expecting these dense liquidation areas above to be touched within the next 1–2 weeks. As long as this last long liquidation area is cleared, the path of least resistance is upward. $ETH $BTC $SOL On a Thursday afternoon when the market is crashing like this, Standard Chartered Bank opened a door and started trading BTC and ETH.
BTC is now at 80584, down again.
This was unimaginable three years ago.
Back then, when banks touched the crypto space, regulatory warnings came before business. Now, a globally systemically important bank directly puts BTC and ETH on the counter to sell to clients.
In contrast, on the market, BTC has dropped three times in three days, losing 80168, and ETH has lost 2400; retail investors are fleeing, and liquidations make headlines daily.
In the industry, custody regulations are loosening, Standard Chartered is opening doors, and tokenized US Treasuries have entered the repo market. One side is crying, the other is building.
I'm not saying now is the time to bottom-fish, don’t misunderstand. I mean price drops and infrastructure building have always been two separate lines. When prices fell 85% in 2018, custody licenses were being approved. When Luna collapsed in 2022, spot ETFs were under review. The pipelines quietly built during every bear market are the gateways to the next bull market. It’s always like this: the coldest times are the busiest.
Banks opening doors doesn’t mean prices will rise tomorrow, but once the door is open, it won’t close again. Price is the weather; infrastructure is the climate. Weather changes weekly; climate changes every decade. We all live in this climate.
What do you think, now that Standard Chartered has opened this door, will other banks follow?
#渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Conclusion first: This is just a pullback after a rapid rise, not a problem with the privacy narrative. ZEC dropped from $1,227 yesterday to a low of $1,124, closing at $1,147, down 6.48% for the day, with a trading volume of $62.5 million. Interestingly, the day before yesterday it was the top gainer (+8.3%), but today it became the worst performer in the Top 10. This sharp switch from "leading gains to leading losses" reflects the high Beta characteristic of the privacy leader. Looking at the structure: spot price is $1,147, perpetual contracts are aligned with no de-peg. Open interest is about $119.5 million, one of the largest in the Top 10; funding rate is +0.01% (reaching the upper limit). Note this combination—price fell 6.5%, but the funding rate is still at the upper limit, indicating heavy long leverage. Contract dominance plus maxed funding rate means its volatility will be amplified: sharp rises and sharp falls. Looking at the position: currently $1,147, below the 7-day moving average ($1,208) and 14-day moving average ($1,253), but still above the 60-day moving average ($1,141). The 14-day high is $1,412, and the 14-day low is $1,112. In other words, it is currently sitting on the 60-day moving average, with the next support at the previous low of $1,112. Market cap is $19.5 billion, ranked 10th. The logic for ZEC remains unchanged: privacy demand returning plus oversold recovery. The 8.3% rise the day before yesterday was a recovery, and today's 6.5% drop is due to CPI drag + To be honest, Ethereum's sharp drop this morning was really intense.
The entire September gains have been wiped out, with a low of 2313!
Although it overshot the recent bottom I was watching, I only started moving south after the National Day holiday, when the price had already fallen from the highs to 2545.
No choice, it's a bit regrettable, but it's best to take profits when you can, after all, there's still 150 centimeters.#PalantirQ3Valuation As usual, the market trend on the day after the release of important data often holds the most reference value.
Yesterday's CPI data exceeded expectations, causing crypto, US stocks, and gold to generally decline in response. Today, crypto continues to weaken, US stocks are likely under pressure, but interestingly—gold has rebounded.
According to traditional linear logic: CPI exceeds expectations ➡️ higher probability of rate hikes ➡️ gold, as a non-yielding asset, declines.
But today's rise in gold reflects a deeper signal: the market has begun trading on recession expectations.
When the safe-haven attribute outweighs the logic of non-yielding cost, every divergence in the market is an early hedge against risks we have overlooked.
$XAU The rebound in South Korean chip stocks didn't hold, and I'm more curious about where the money for the buy-in is coming from.
On October 14, the KOSPI rose about 2.6% in early trading but closed with a slight decline. In a report by Aju Press, a researcher from Daishin Securities offered an explanation worth verifying: the previous buybacks by Samsung and SK Hynix absorbed some of the foreign capital selling; after the buyback plans ended, similar selling pressure is more likely to directly impact the stock price.
Of course, this isn't the only reason for the day's pullback and can't explain all the trading in one sentence. But it shifts the question from "Does everyone still believe in AI?" back to who is continuously buying. Company buybacks, long-term investors adding positions, and short-term buying after sharp drops all have different durations of sustainability.
Announcing restored confidence during the morning rally is a bit premature. Prices are indeed moving up. But whether this money is willing to stay until the next earnings report still depends on subsequent trading; we can't decide that based on that one stretch of gains.
Looking ahead to whether semiconductor buying can continue, I will track buyback plans alongside net foreign buying and selling. We also need to see if the gains hold after positive news comes out. Industry judgments can take a long time to materialize, but the funds providing support might stop first. The process from rebound to narrowing yesterday is frustrating because even if the long-term direction is right, it doesn't necessarily explain who is covering the selling pressure right now.
#韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ Today the entire market was pressured by the CPI, yet Pyth in the oracle sector bucked the trend and rose about 10%, ranking first among mainstream coins in terms of gains. The catalyst was the new rule passed by Pyth DAO in early October: all revenue from data services is used monthly to repurchase tokens and add them to reserves. Currently, there are about 41 million tokens in the reserve, with an official annualized revenue of approximately 11.5 million USD. This is one of the few attempts to directly link real business revenue with tokens, but to be clear: repurchasing does not equal burning, so circulating supply has not decreased, and it cannot withstand a broad market decline when the overall market weakens. Moving forward, I am more interested in tracking the actual monthly repurchase volume to see if the mechanism delivers as promised, which is more insightful than short-term price fluctuations. What do you think about this "revenue repurchase" model? Is it a long-term value capture or just a one-time sentiment?$BTC Big Cake
After CPI data exceeded expectations, rate hike expectations have heated up, which is not very friendly to the market in the short term.
ETF funds also come and go in waves, with no sign of a firm and sustained buying.
Yesterday I said 84400 and 80200 are two liquidity-dense positions within the oscillation range. Since the market chose to go down, the performance at the 80,000 level will be very important.
Once 80,000 is effectively broken, there is basically no decent support below, and it can smoothly reach the 78,000‑75,000 range.
On the upside, there is a huge amount of liquidity stacked at 85,000 and 87,000.
If 80,000 holds and buying returns, market makers will most likely sweep these two positions upward.
In short: the next direction will be decided by 80,000.
$ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $ZEC Do not blindly try to catch the bottom. After the CPI release, ZEC continued to weaken, but it never broke below the 1050 range, which also confirms that ZEC remains in a strong position.
ZEC's cumulative increase in 2026 once reached as high as 2496%. After hitting a peak of about $1650 at the end of September, it had already accumulated huge profit-taking pressure. Whales placed large sell orders below market price on platforms like Hyperliquid, directly triggering a price pullback. Technically, the $1,200–$1,300 range was an important previous support; breaking below it triggered more concentrated selling pressure.
ZEC's long-term privacy narrative has not been completely overturned. This decline is more like a typical correction after a big rally rather than the end of the trend. Going forward, focus should be on the effectiveness of support in the $1,200–$1,300 range and whether the NU7 upgrade (target mainnet activation on November 5) can restore market confidence.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 CPI is just the first blow; tonight's PPI will decide if 80,000 can hold
Last night, CPI pushed BTC down from 84,147 to 80,228, and now it has only recovered to around 80,780. I wouldn't call this resilience; it feels more like the market is waiting for the second inflation report at 20:30 tonight.
CPI year-over-year is 3.7%, core at 2.6%. Gasoline rose 9.1% month-over-month, contributing to more than half of the increase; but excluding energy, service prices and housing costs still rose 0.4% month-over-month, indicating pressure is not just from oil prices.
So tonight's PPI is crucial. If it continues to heat up, it means production costs are also rising, US Treasury yields could surge again, and BTC's 80,000 level will come under renewed pressure; if the data cools down, the market will have reason to trade on "CPI mainly disturbed by energy."
My position is clear: if 80,228 breaks, first watch 79,000—78,000; if after the data release it can recover to 81,400 and hold above 82,000, this drop might turn out to be a false breakdown. ETH is now around 2,360, hasn't even reclaimed 2,400, clearly weaker than BTC.
Tonight, I won't bottom-fish early nor chase shorts near 80,000. After the data comes out, first watch US Treasuries, then see if BTC can reclaim the breakdown zone. The first spike isn't the answer; where it closes is what counts.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $ETH ETH under inflationary pressure: short-term under pressure, key support at 2,300
CPI exceeded expectations, directly pushing up rate hike expectations: before the release, the market's probability of a rate hike in October was only about 21.6%, after the data it surged to 43.7%. The US dollar and US Treasury yields rose simultaneously, risk appetite was suppressed, and ETH, as a high-risk asset, was the first to be hit, with short-term funds clearly turning cautious.
On the chart, ETH broke below 2,400, hitting a low near 2,313, with technical focus first on whether the 2,300 area can hold. The funding side is also unhelpful: derivatives saw long position liquidations, and spot ETFs had consecutive days of net outflows previously, further amplifying short-term vulnerability.
Currently, ETH and US tech stocks sentiment are highly correlated. Next, focus on whether rate hike expectations will continue to approach 50%: if they continue to heat up, the 2,400 level will be difficult to reclaim in the short term; if sentiment eases, there is a chance to quickly stand back above 2,400. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are also #Sony Earnings Preview: How Are the Gaming and Music Businesses Performing? Let's briefly talk about the corporate bond issue. Actually, on the 13th, before the CPI announcement on the 14th, CoreWeave notes had already started to decline, with yields soaring over 15%.
The relationship between CoreWeave and Nvidia has long been a mess, like a chaotic spiral where one foot steps on the other, a kind of evasive maneuver. So, what's the difference between these high-interest cycle bonds and the stablecoin cycle pledge lending crashes in the crypto world?
Moreover, with US Treasury yields so high recently, it's better to buy risk-free US Treasuries than corporate bonds. Although US Treasuries have been criticized for a long time, their credit is still much better than corporate bonds, especially the popular short-term 2-year and 10-year bonds.
In short, everyone knows AI is a bubble and will eventually burst, but there will always be greedy people. This kind of burst will probably be a series of targeted explosions. Even though it has dropped so much this time, it definitely doesn't mean it's over. There will be rebounds afterward, but the rebound lows may gradually decrease. Breaking down a little each time is definitely better than one big explosion.Down about 12.59% in 24 hours, after a rebound of about 1.4% in the last full hour, the latest price has returned to around 1093. $ZEC is still in a short-term correction within a downtrend on OKX, with sufficient liquidity but the direction is not yet confirmed.
OKX public data at 13:47 (UTC+8) shows ZEC-USDT spot at 1092.76, 24-hour range 1081.76—1267.09; spot trading volume in the last 24 full hours is about 66.78 million USDT, perpetual about 1.29 billion USDT.
In the last full 4 hours, spot and perpetual fell 3.96% and 4.03% respectively, with trading volume increasing 143% and 170% compared to the previous 4-hour period, the decline accompanied by significant volume expansion. Then in the following full 1 hour, both sides rebounded about 1.4%, but spot volume increased while perpetual trading volume slightly decreased by 1.86%, indicating uneven strength in the correction.
Current nominal value of perpetual open interest is about 114 million USD, Funding is +0.0100%, leverage cost has not reached extremes. Around 1120 is the short-term strength/weakness boundary; if volume expands and closes above it, I consider this correction sustainable. If the 1080 area is lost, priority is to control the risk of further decline spread, not guessing direction based on a single OI snapshot, but following close and volume confirmation.I have noticed that many people in the crypto community might be misunderstanding the decline in U.S. Treasury yields.
The old narrative was:
When U.S. Treasury yields fall, liquidity improves, and Bitcoin should rise.
But now there is a problem.
U.S. inflation is exceeding expectations, Asian tech stocks have plummeted, and capital is starting to seek safe-haven assets.
Yet the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has actually fallen back to around 5.1%.
At this point, a drop in yields does not necessarily mean the market is celebrating easing.
It could also mean that capital is fleeing risk.
These two types of declines have completely different implications.
One means money is ready to take risks.
The other means money is scared and hiding in Treasuries.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating repeatedly around $83,000.
What worries me most now is not whether Bitcoin will fall or not.
It's that some people see the drop in U.S. Treasury yields and think the next bull market has already begun.
The most ironic thing about the market is:
The same indicator can be bullish in a bull market but a sign of risk aversion in a bear market.
If you only look at the numbers without understanding why capital is moving, you will pay the price sooner or later.
My judgment: For now, observing whether risk appetite has recovered is more important than guessing when the Fed will intervene. This round of decline has no black swan, only bills. $BTC once dropped to 80,927, $ETH slid to 2,405, with $814 million in contracts forcibly liquidated, 84.6% of which were long positions. It wasn't a sudden news dump, but high leverage concentrated debt repayment—this is a market structure issue, not a narrative collapse. The rebound looks more like a pullback during retreat. $BTC almost erased its losses, just 0.3% short; $ETH can't get back to 2,560; $SOL is 3% short of 112. If risk appetite really returned, it wouldn't be only $BTC being grabbed. Bitcoin's market dominance rose to 59.3%, this is not an offense, but hiding in the "big bread"—funds are seeking shelter, not opportunities. Macro also didn't give a good sign. Hamak warns inflation is seeping into AI and power infrastructure, December rate hike probability near 70%, 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.24%. Tonight's 8:30 PM CPI is a watershed: core monthly rate ≤0.2% to breathe easy, 0.3% keeps the debate going, ≥0.4% will restart rate hike trades. Hotter is more troublesome than cooler. Next, watch three price levels: $BTC 84,360, $ETH 2,580, $SOL 113. Only if all three break through simultaneously is it risk diffusion; if only $BTC strengthens alone, it's still risk aversion, not recovery. One sentence to remember: liquidations clear leverage, not doubt; rising market dominance means money is hiding, not chasing. #USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
TSMC's Q3 revenue hitting a new high has actually been priced in early by monthly data; the market's current focus is not on the realized revenue but on the gross margin and Q4 guidance.
The gross margin guidance of 65%-67% indicates a sequential decline, coupled with capital expenditure expectations, reflecting cost pressures from advanced process capacity expansion.
$TSM's short-term decline reflects capital's play on future profit elasticity. Whether AI chip demand can continue to absorb capacity is the core answer the upcoming earnings report will provide. #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might already be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue increased by 54.6% year-over-year and decreased by 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is very interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are also insufficient to draw conclusions about the entire AI demand.
After the monthly revenue is disclosed in advance, the focus of the earnings report should move forward. How the next quarter's orders are arranged, which demands can be sustained, and whether customers are pulling orders ahead are all more informative than simply repeating the already public total amount.We tested 405 grids on ETC since 2020: 111 were liquidated and only 28 profited.
If ETC drops 40%, a long grid that bought between 19.6 and 18.0 ends at −36%, and below its range it doesn't operate.
The best with a drop less than 40%: long 1×, 20 levels at 3% → +45.7% in 6 years, +2.8% in 2026.
The DCA gained +595%… with a 97% drop.
First, choose how much you are willing to lose.
This is not financial advice.
#ETC #GridTrading #DCA At 3 a.m., the kitchen fridge was still humming. I stared at my phone screen watching the message about the tokenized treasury repo transaction, nearly cutting my finger with the fillet knife in my hand. BNY Mellon put the two-year US Treasury bonds for Castle Securities onto a private ledger and settled it within minutes, just before the overnight repo financing — what does this equate to? It’s like you just finished preparing the broth, but before it even hits the stove, the customer has already finished drinking and left. In the past, US Treasury collateral bounced back and forth between custodians and triparty repo platforms, like a serving window piled with a dozen cold dishes waiting for the clearinghouse to stamp and sign — by then, the food was spoiled. Now, the ledger turns tables in minutes, and the turnover rate of collateral speeds up from a "slow cooker" to a "wok stir-fry."
But don’t rush to add salt. Having cooked for thirty years, I know one thing well: the faster the heat, the more it tests the base flavor. This tokenized US Treasury dish smells great, but it has two fatal steps. First, cross-platform liquidity — it’s easy to pour beef bone broth into one pot, but transferring it from a clay pot on platform A to a stainless steel pot on platform B causes spillage; who compensates for that loss? On the Canton Network, the total return swap linked to the tokenized bond index played out nicely between DRW and Marex, but whether the broth of this dish can freely switch pots determines if it’s a main course or just a garnish. Second, the seasoning of compliance and risk control — how much regulatory pepper you sprinkle decides the customer base. Ondo’s three tokenized treasury products broke 3 billion in scale, showing the diners approve, but once the scale grows, the kitchen workflow, fridge temperature, and serving order all need rearranging; if one cutting board isn’t properly sanitized, the whole table has to leave.
Let me break down the proportions for you. Tokenized treasuries, repos, and money market fund tokens are the real main dishes — like Australian beef or East Star grouper in quality: steady, chewy, and able to hold the scene. They shouldn’t just be shrunk to the plate’s edge as decoration. As for those scraps waving the "on-chain US Treasury yield" banner, most are MSG-mixed broth — smelling fresh but leaving you dry after drinking. The super spicy chili? That’s the leverage and rehypothecation piled on top — staking US Treasury tokens to borrow stablecoins to buy more US Treasury tokens, this "self-spicing" play, a little adds aroma, too much burns your gut; at 3 a.m., you’ll be kneeling at the cold storage door regretting it.
The real trick isn’t who got on-chain first, but whether the collateral’s "table turnover rate" can be raised and financing costs truly lowered. It’s like kitchen workflow design: shortening the distance between the serving window and stove by two meters speeds up serving by 30%, but if hot and cold food paths cross, a food safety incident is inevitable. Tokenization compresses settlement time from T+1 to minutes; the time saved is heat saved, and heat saved is cost saved. But if cross-platform interoperability, custodian trust anchors, or regulatory snapshot consistency aren’t fully nailed, the whole dish ends up undercooked.
My final taste of this broth: the ledger revolution in settlement speed is already on the stove, and the fire can’t be held back. #tokenizedtreasuryrepo$RIVER continues to be held, it has already broken 1, let's wait and see. A coin highly controlled by whale manipulators, be cautious when bottom-fishing.
Long-short ratio: Retail investors are extremely bullish
Binance retail long-short ratio 2.6311, OKX retail long-short ratio 3.49
Whale side: Whale count long-short ratio 2.9588, whale position long-short ratio as high as 1.5462.
Project fundamentals and on-chain data: Highly controlled, on-chain activity relatively calm
RIVER is a chain-abstract stablecoin protocol, TVL has dropped from a peak of 600 million USD to about 160 million USD, fundamentals continue to deteriorate.
From on-chain data, the top three addresses (ERC1967Proxy, Team Proxy, Investor Proxy) collectively control over 53%, belonging to absolute "whale stock".
In the past 7 days of entity balance changes, PancakeSwap increased by 9.33%, HTX increased by 7.48%, while Binance wallet decreased by 8.02%.
Main funds are shifting between some exchanges, indicating local selling pressure preparation. Recent transfer records mainly show frequent small transfers between platforms such as MEXC, Bitget, PancakeSwap.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Crypto exchanges are starting to buy banks. Don't just focus on which coin benefits; the real point to note is: they want to keep your money entirely within their own ecosystem.
Kraken's parent company Payward announced the acquisition of Lithuania's Saldo Bank, pending regulatory approval, expected to complete in 2027.
Consider this business logic: previously, when you traded crypto on exchanges, fiat deposits/withdrawals, lending, and bank cards were separate processes. Now, platforms want to put cash, crypto assets, credit, and even tokenized stocks into a single account.
For users, the experience might be more convenient; for platforms, the greater value lies in increasing user retention time and financial service revenue.
But don't equate "buying a bank" directly with "the platform being safer." The more complex the business, the more you need to look at client asset segregation, deposit protection, and regulatory boundaries.
The key to future exchange competition may not be who lists new coins fastest, but who can control the user's entire capital chain. Convenience or security—which are you willing to compromise on? The numbers on the monitor are still jumping, but the perfusion pressure can no longer hold. In this round of Strive's operation, what I’m watching isn’t how much it bought, but whether its myocardium can still contract autonomously—single transaction of 2,822 coins, about $235 million, total holdings pushed to 35,595 coins, cumulative 6,133 coins over two rounds. This isn’t a small incision; this is a full open-chest surgery.
First, look at the circulatory system. It expects about $369 million in gross warrant income and will also issue SATS preferred shares with an annual cumulative dividend of 15%. What does 15% mean? It’s like an extracorporeal circulation machine working for the heart; the machine spins, the person lives, but the myocardium is dormant. Preferred stock dividends are a mandatory outflow; regardless of BTC’s rise or fall, this 15% must be drawn from the vessels every year. Once BTC stagnates or dips, the dividends become a continuous bleeding point, while common shareholders receive the residual perfusion after dividends are paid first—each BTC share’s gold content is either diluted by new issuance or slowly drained by fixed dividends.
Next, look at Metaplanet. A zero-coupon convertible bond of 52 billion yen, with a clearly stated purpose: to repay BTC mortgage loans and repurchase shares. Zero-coupon means no interest burden in the short term, but principal must be repaid at maturity. This swaps short-term pressure for a future tumor located in the mediastinum—painless now, but it’s there. Using BTC as collateral for loans is equivalent to mortgaging the heart to exchange for blood—price drops trigger margin calls, causing acute cardiac tamponade, blood can’t return, heartbeat stops suddenly, forced to sell coins to repay debt, the more sold, the more the price falls, the more it falls, the more is sold.
Strategy’s preference for STRC buybacks shares the same logic: using financing tools to maintain coin content per share, betting that financing costs are lower than BTC appreciation. This is a complex bypass performed under extracorporeal circulation; if the surgeon’s hand is steady, the connection is smooth; if it trembles, there’s bleeding at the anastomosis.
Three surgeries, the same risk exposure: they all assume BTC’s long-term slope is upward and volatility is controllable. But in real vital signs, BTC’s blood pressure is paroxysmal. Financing can increase coin content per share—provided financing costs are lower than coin price gains and there is no forced liquidation. Once entering a downtrend, leverage is not an amplifier but a defibrillator repeatedly shocking an already ischemic heart, each shock consuming the last myocardial reserve.
My judgment is simple: this is not balance sheet expansion; it’s gradually replacing native myocardium with an external pump, showing good short-term blood pressure but questionable long-term autonomous heart rate. #striveholdsover35kbtc$LAB Continue holding or bearish? Bull-bear ratio Bottomed out and came back again, be cautious when bottom fishing. This is strongly controlled by a dog whale.
Bull-bear ratio: Retail investors are extremely euphoric.
Binance retail bull-bear ratio is 4.0968, OKX retail bull-bear ratio is as high as 7.92
(Extremely euphoric, retail investors are crazily catching falling knives).
For whales: The number of whales bull-bear ratio is 4.7971, but the whales' position bull-bear ratio is only 1.4517.
On-chain core signals: In the past 7 days, Gate's balance surged by 127.63%, Bitget increased by 51.28%, MEXC increased by 9.2%, CoinEx increased by 10.79%.
The main force is massively shifting chips to exchanges like Gate, combined with the top 10 holders (Gate cold wallet 11.6%, Gnosis Safe team/investors over 18% in total), the selling pressure signal is extremely clear.
$BTC $ETH #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓