Orbit Post Sitemap
$CORE has slightly risen a few points, and immediately the comment section is full of people shouting for newbies to go all in.
Everyone might as well ask themselves: does a truly high-quality project need to persuade strangers everywhere to heavily invest?
Over four or five years, CORE has repeatedly promoted the grand BTC-Fi narrative, yet has never delivered any tangible results.
Old retail investors who once had high hopes have long seen through this cyclical script after rounds of pulse market moves and no longer believe in the big coin story.
This rise is just a temporary illusion created by low liquidity; a small amount of capital can pull up the price, but it is not a fundamental reversal.
Every short-term pump is accompanied by a concentrated burst of hype aimed at attracting newcomers from outside to chase the highs.
Without a real ecosystem landing, the hype is sustained solely by narrative, and huge risks always exist.
Those desperately urging others to go all in never clearly explain the potential loss risks.
Newcomers must keep their eyes open, distinguish objective analysis from deliberately exaggerated hype, not be fooled by short-term pulse moves, and never blindly go all in.
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and extremely risky. ETF spot institutional fund flows: inflows are slowing down, but the direction hasn't changed; money is still coming in, just at a slower pace. There have been net inflows for 7 consecutive days, totaling about $2.98 billion. This scale is not small historically.
The real issue lies in the structure.
Funds are highly concentrated in IBIT alone. The other 11 products are either negligible or experiencing outflows.
#DailyOrbit Brothers.
In the past, when looking at a coin, the first thing I always checked was how much it had risen.
Now it's different.
I actually prefer to see if it has continuous updates.
What a project fears most is not a temporary drop.
It's having no developers, no maintenance, no discussion.
The price can stay quiet for a long time.
But once development activity stops, that's truly uncomfortable.
So whenever CORE has recent upgrades, code changes, or ecosystem updates, I always take a look.
At least it's more interesting than staring at a single candlestick. $CORE Oracle's long-term bonds were hammered after hours, with yields surging to a record 8.3%. Meanwhile, the five-year CDS spread jumped 16% to 227 basis points, also a historic high, more than four times the investment-grade index (about 55bp).
CDS are insurance policies in the bond market; spreads soaring to this level indicate institutions are betting real money on an increased risk of default. This often contrasts with stock price movements—stocks can be propped up by narratives, but bond market pricing is more ruthless.
The implication for the crypto market lies in liquidity transmission. If the credit of large tech companies deteriorates, institutions will prioritize selling high-volatility assets to cover margin calls, with Bitcoin and altcoins usually the first to be affected.
This is not a prediction that Oracle will fail, but the signals from the bond market are worth watching more than any tweet.$BTC staying resilient despite rising US Treasury yields is the real story. 📊
The 10Y yield touched 5.23%, yet US spot ETFs saw roughly $2.8B in net inflows over nearly six sessions—showing continued accumulation despite macro pressure.
This weekend, watch crude oil and whether 5.23% holds as a short-term yield peak. If bond pressure eases, strong ETF demand could help BTC break the $84K resistance and target $87K+.
#BTCETF2.8BInflowStreak #USLongTermYieldsRise #Hormuz7DayPlanRejected $ETH — Rebound Still Needs Confirmation $ETH is around $2,690, sitting right between bulls and bears. ETH pushed to $2,743 today but failed to hold. $2,748 remains key resistance, with repeated rejections above $2,740 over the past three days. Above that, $2,787–$2,807 is the major supply zone from this week’s rallies. Until $ETH clears and holds it, this looks like a rebound—not a confirmed reversal. Support: $2,667 → $2,660 → $2,600. Lose $2,600, and $2,550 could come into play. Wait for co"3nm vs. GAA Architecture Competition: Bitcoin Mining Machine Chip Process and Semiconductor Industry Resonance"
Many people overlook one fact: Bitcoin $BTC is not only a financial innovation but also one of the most aggressive buyers of the world's most advanced semiconductor processes. The iteration cycle of mining ASIC chips directly reflects the cutting edge of global foundry technology.
Resonance between the chip industry and mining economics:
1. The first testing ground for advanced processes: Foundry giants like TSMC and Samsung's 3nm and next-generation GAA architectures, besides supplying top-tier smartphone manufacturers like Apple, often use ASIC mining chips as the earliest mass-produced test products due to their simpler architecture rules and logic.
2. Diminishing physical returns on computing power efficiency: As chip processes approach the physical limits of Moore's Law, the energy consumption reduction of new-generation miners compared to the previous generation narrows significantly, greatly raising the fixed asset investment threshold per unit of computing power.
3. Passive extension of old miners' lifecycle: The weakening of process benefits means new machines cannot instantly replace old ones, and the network-wide average electricity cost gradually becomes the sole decisive variable that crushes marginal miners.
Hardware process hitting the physical ceiling is pushing the Bitcoin $BTC network's computing power competition from a simple "equipment arms race" to a more brutal stage of "global cheap clean energy lock-in." $ETH $SPELL is relatively stronger than others in the same sector. Conclusion first: short-term bias is bullish, but only buy on pullbacks, do not chase highs.
Horizontally, WLD 24h +9.79%, LINK +3.68%, SPELL +20.15% clearly leads the gains, and the trading volume of 5.1M USDT belongs to a small-cap, high-elasticity asset. Technicals: MA5=0.00011178 crossed above and stabilized above MA20=0.00010201, trend structure intact; MACD histogram +1.391e-06 maintains bullish; RSI=70.6 has entered the overbought zone, combined with the Fear & Greed Index at 74 (greedy), indicating overheated sentiment and high risk of chasing highs. The upper Bollinger Band at 0.000115101 is the nearest resistance, with 30 K-line amplitude at 24.22%, showing high volatility. The key is the funding rate at -0.1168%, shorts pay fees, indicating crowded shorts. If the price does not fall, there is potential for a short squeeze continuation momentum, which is the core reason it deserves more attention than WLD (MACD bearish) and LINK (amplitude only 4.83%).
In terms of operation, entry reference is 0.0001080–0.0001120, i.e., buy near the MA5 pullback, avoid chasing near the upper Bollinger Band. I estimate it will still drop, but I'll keep holding on! I never want to make small profits and big losses again!
---
ONE surged from 0.00175 straight up to 0.00270, then dropped back to 0.00231. I opened a short position around 0.00250, currently floating with +3.22% profit. Although it's not much, this time I'm determined not to exit!
📊 Market analysis:
On the 15-minute chart, the high at 0.002706 has been confirmed, and the moving averages are starting to turn downward. MA5 (0.00229) and MA10 (0.00228) form short-term resistance, with the price struggling repeatedly around 0.00231. Above, 0.00240-0.00250 is all trapped positions, weak in rebound; below, 0.00215 is short-term support.
I've decided to hold on, no more small profits and big losses!
I used to take profits quickly and hold on stubbornly when losing. This time it's reversed—if the direction is right, hold on and let profits run.
The first target is 0.00215; if it breaks below, then look at 0.00200. No small gains, only big ones.
This time I will never make small profits and big losses again! Holding the short position, watching it drop to 0.00215. Control your hands, let the profits fly for a while!
$ONE $ETH $BTC
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 🔷 Altseason: index 58 out of 75
• BTC +39.3% over 90 days, ~$84k
• Altcoin Season Index: 58 (threshold 75)
• Rose from 23 (9/1) to 58 — doubled in a month
• 16 alts +100% over 90 days
• Leaders: PONS +6500%, ZEC +294%, RAY/UNI +230%, ENA +211%
• ETH +70%, HYPE +46%
🧠 Rotation is happening: capital flows into narratives (privacy, DEX, memes), not BTC. But 58 ≠ altseason (need 75). Question: will it reach or will BTC take the liquidity
🔮 Watch: index → 75, ZEC/ENA, BTC $90k
#DailyOrbit 【BTC 83,940｜After falling back from 87K, 83K is still holding】
After BTC fell back from above 87K, it has basically been fluctuating around 83K–85K in the past two days. On September 25, it once rebounded to 85.2K, but then returned to around 83.8K, indicating that selling pressure above 85K still exists. However, the funding side has not weakened significantly yet; the US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling over $2.8 billion.
Currently, the short-term focus remains on 83K–84K. If this level holds and BTC recovers back above 85K, there is a chance to test 86K–87K again; if 83K is effectively broken, watch for a pullback to 81K–82K.
In the futures market, this looks more like a position where bulls and bears are exchanging control again. Especially recently, derivative market open interest remains relatively high, and volatility after BTC options expiration may continue to increase. Whether 83K can hold is more important than guessing the direction right now. $BTC
This is only a market opinion and does not constitute investment advice.1. 总览 $BCH 现在能不能做：仅计划 方向：做多 现在能否挂单：不能 持仓周期：约 1～3 天 一句话结论：现价在短线下跌中，接近已确认支撑区，但15分钟和30分钟这一波下跌尚未走完。 当前位置：4小时上升段回落后的偏下位置，依据是4小时已确认低点327.46、60分钟震荡区间低位324.01～335.67、30分钟震荡区间低位331.03附近。 相对现价：等条件 为什么这样说：价格已靠近下方已确认支撑带，但15分钟当前向下结构仍在形成中，不能把未走完低点当作挂单依据。 2. 计划区 仅计划（暂不挂单） 现在不能挂单 · 以下只是计划，等条件满足后再评估 计划 A · 回踩确认 方向：做多 适用周期：4小时背景 + 1小时结构 + 30分钟确认 + 15分钟细化 准备进场价：328.80～330.20；依据是4小时已确认低点327.46上方、60分钟已确认低点324.01与327.46支撑带内侧，不贴当前15分钟未走完低点332.28。 止损价：323.20；放在60分钟已确认低点324.01外侧，并留出约0.5～0.9的缓冲，跌破后说明这套围绕327.46～330.20支撑带The past two days have seen a drop, burying a large number of bulls again.
In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled 154 million, which doesn't sound like much. But long positions liquidated 96.37 million, while shorts only 57.98 million. BTC longs liquidated 30.45 million, shorts only 8.16 million.
Do you see it clearly? These past two days, it’s not the shorts making money, but the bottom-fishers getting buried.
BTC fell from 87,000 to 84,000, which doesn’t look like a big drop. But every time it dips a little, a group rushes in to bottom-fish, only to be pushed down again. It seems like every time it drops a bit, someone shouts “it’s the bottom,” but there’s still more below.
This drop has killed bulls much worse than shorts. Because shorts entered at the high, bulls caught it halfway down. That’s the difference between bottom-fishers and trend followers.
I haven’t moved these past two days. This kind of slow decline is the worst — it’s neither a crash to give you a quick hit nor a reversal to give hope, just a slow grind down.
You guys, have you been bottom-fishing or staying out these past two days? Let’s talk in the comments.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH #稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
Stablecoins are evolving from "crypto assets" into "bank settlement infrastructure," with regulation and implementation accelerating in tandem.
On September 24, the Federal Reserve proposed that stablecoin issuers allocate nearly all reserves to highly liquid assets such as short-term Treasury bills and establish unified capital and risk management standards. The effective date of the GENIUS Act has been postponed to January 2027.
Implementation is moving faster. SoFi and Mastercard have migrated $25 billion in credit card business entirely onto the blockchain, using their self-developed SoFiUSD for settlement, becoming the first U.S. bank to run stablecoin settlement on the Mastercard network. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's CMU will launch 24-hour on-chain real-time settlement by the end of this year, studying the acceptance of regulated stablecoins and tokenized deposits.
Rules and channels are being laid out simultaneously, with implementation outpacing legislation. Watch the number of banks applying to issue stablecoins before January 2027—that will be the true signal of demand. #Strategy proposes to pay daily dividends on preferred shares
If dividends were really paid daily, who would still put spare money in Yu'ebao!
This time Strategy proposes to change the dividend record date of the four preferred shares STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD to daily.
Many people don't understand the significance,
Simply put, investors used to have to wait for a fixed period to receive dividends,
Now interest is earned every day, improving capital use efficiency and liquidity.
More importantly for Strategy:
The better the preferred shares sell, the easier it is to continue financing;
The smoother the financing, the more ammunition Michael Saylor has to keep buying BTC.
So this is not just "giving out money," but paving the way for Strategy's BTC treasury model to continue.
Of course, this is just a proposal now, and it will be submitted to shareholders for a vote on October 28,
And the company clearly states it will not change the existing dividend rate nor increase the obligation to pay regular dividends.
If the plan passes,
And if we really see continued growth in preferred share demand and issuance scale afterward,
Whether Strategy can continue financing to buy $BTC may be hidden in these preferred shares.
In the short term, watch for improved sentiment and liquidity of preferred shares;
In the medium term, watch the scale of financing;
In the longer term, it still comes down to one core question:
Can Strategy continue to use capital market funds to buy more and more BTC. #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 After ZEC’s explosive run, price is still hovering around the $1,500–$1,560 zone, refusing to give shorts the deep pullback they’re waiting for. Meanwhile, the bigger picture is getting even more interesting: 📊 Spot ZEC ETF flows remain positive for September, although the latest two sessions reportedly showed zero net activity — a noticeable cooldown after the earlier inflows. 🔥 Short sellers are still under pressure. Recent reports show large ZEC shorts being closed or liquidated as the tokeThis week, Ethereum showed a "breakout followed by a pullback confirmation" pattern. The price once surged to a nearly eight-month high, then retreated to consolidate around $2,700, with a seven-day gain of about 14%.
Institutional funds are the core driving force. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $480 million, with BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity's FETH contributing the main shares, reversing the continuous outflows seen in mid-September.
Whales and on-chain data provide synchronized support. BitMine continues to increase holdings, now accounting for 4.9% of Ethereum's total supply, with 85% locked in staking, significantly reducing market circulation. Exchange balances continue to decline, with about 14.8 million ETH remaining on exchanges, indicating strengthened spot demand.
Open interest has risen to about $16 billion, with Binance accounting for $6.8 billion, showing active leveraged funds. However, short positions are densely concentrated near $2,800; if the price continues to rise, it may trigger a short squeeze amplifying volatility, whereas a decline could first clear longs.
Technically, $2,780 (near the 100-week moving average) is the immediate key resistance; breaking through it sets the next target between $3,300 and $3,400. On the downside, the $2,544 to $2,626 range forms short-term support.
Ethereum's structure this week is more bullish compared to Bitcoin, but whether $2,800 can hold will determine if this rally continues upward expansion or shifts to a consolidation phase.Currently, what exactly is the positive news for $UNI? Unlike $ZEC or $BCH, it hasn't applied for ETF approval. What supports its funding?
First, the biggest positive is the protocol fee burn: uni tokens are burned based on transaction volume, meaning the more transactions, the more tokens are burned. This is the most important fundamental change for uni in recent years. The second positive is the rapid expansion of the unichain ecosystem; as on-chain transaction volume grows, part of the generated revenue also goes into the uni burn mechanism. The third positive is that the v4 protocol has started contributing revenue, meaning the more people use uniswap, the higher the revenue, which leads to faster uni token burns. In summary, uni has not clearly applied for a spot ETF yet. The key focus should be whether uniswap's trading volume continues to grow, as higher trading volume is very beneficial for uni!It's Saturday, so let me share my approach for this weekend: staying flat on perpetuals, no holding contracts overnight.
Many think being out of the market means no conviction or being timid. Quite the opposite. On weekends, liquidity is thin and news is chaotic—Iran, oil prices, next week's AI conference, any one of these can spike your stop-loss while you're asleep. Holding contracts during such times means profits come down to luck, losses hit your principal.
After years of playing cards, my biggest improvement wasn't learning how to bet, but learning when not to bet. If the hand is bad, position is bad, or pot odds aren't right, just fold without regret.
Trading is the same. Until $BTC triggers the clear signal I want, I stay flat and wait. The biggest enemy to your account is impatience.Today, the top gainer is not AERO or SEI, but ENA—the token of Ethena, which surged 23.6% in one day, reaching $0.27.
Why the sudden spike? Because Binance officially announced a partnership with Ethena yesterday. What is Ethena? It created a synthetic US dollar stablecoin called USDe—by staking ETH, you can mint USDe, with an annual yield of over 10%. This model is especially popular during interest rate hike cycles because stablecoins held in Ethena can earn high interest.
What does the Binance-Ethena partnership mean? It means USDe might be listed on Binance Earn, or Binance could integrate Ethena into its products. Once listed on Binance, ENA’s trading volume and attention will directly double.
Blogger’s view: Ethena is a DeFi project with real income, not a vaporware token. But ENA has a large circulating supply, and after a 23% rise, chasing the price now carries significant risk. Wait for a pullback before considering, don’t rush in now.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 $BTC $ETH $SOL Don't just focus on the crypto circle when watching it. Next Tuesday, Trump is going to meet with a bunch of top AI company executives at the White House and officially launch an AI-driven government website America.gov, with the Vice President personally endorsing it.
Many people will think: the government is involved, the AI narrative is solid, it's bullish.
Let me remind you to read it the other way around. When a theme gets so hot that the head of state personally endorses it and holds a press conference, it often means it's not just starting out, but that the market has already fully priced it in and it has entered a stage where new narratives need to be continuously fed to maintain valuation. The AI heavyweight stocks in the US market next door have quietly been losing steam these past few weeks.
The correlation between $BTC and these AI giants is higher than many people think. Don't just look at on-chain data; look up and see how much longer the momentum next door can last. $OKB, this coin, I hold it quite comfortably. It doesn't skyrocket, but it's stable.
The deflation is really solid. A one-time burn of 65.25 million tokens, locking the total supply directly at 21M, completely saying goodbye to the old method of annual inflation and manual burns. X Layer TVL has reached $232 million, OKB serves as both Gas and governance. Jumpstart staking to mine new coins is a stable demand, no lock-up, principal can be withdrawn anytime, making it the top choice for lazy retail investors. OKX listing is still accelerating, with GRVT, ZENT, CP, SOPH, BASED coming one after another, platform traffic is increasing.
But don't get carried away. OKB has a correlation of 0.85 with BTC; if the market crashes, it will crash too. The real Gas consumption on X Layer hasn't reached the level of automatic deflation bull yet. Half of the current price is a narrative discount repair, not cash flow confirmation. The geopolitical fire in the Middle East can also ignite risk assets at any time.
Support is at 114.40, breaking it will go back to 110; resistance is between 120.37 and 120.79, only breaking through will target 123 to 125. Key phrase: OKB is a slow revaluation, not a quick explosion. You have to hold to profit, chasing highs is easy to get shaken out.#ARK将13亿美元风投基金代币化
Cathie Wood strikes again, and this move is no small matter.
Her firm, ARK Invest, has just partnered with Securitize to directly tokenize the entire $1.3 billion ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX) and move it onto Ethereum. This is the first official ARK fund to be put on-chain.
Look at what this fund holds: only the top-tier hardcore tech unicorns—OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX. Previously, ordinary people couldn’t even get close to investing in these private companies. Now, Cathie Wood has turned the fund shares into on-chain tokens, which not only record and manage ownership on-chain but also significantly lowers the entry barrier.
So what impact does this have on our crypto space? Let me break it down for you.
First, the narrative around RWA (Real World Assets) has been elevated again. Previously, putting assets on-chain meant single assets like stocks or US Treasuries. Now, an entire complex "venture capital fund" is being put on-chain, signaling that the core practices of traditional asset management are accelerating their move to blockchain. In the future, Wall Street VC funds will be able to raise capital, circulate, and settle directly on-chain.
Second, this is a solid positive for Ethereum. The $1.3 billion fund is deployed directly on Ethereum, reinforcing ETH’s position as an institutional-grade asset settlement layer. It’s not just retail traders speculating on-chain anymore; top-tier venture capital with real money is also settling in.
What’s your take?Got lured into a pump again
Still went long at the peak
Who knows the dog whale's position
Send some local specialties over
Yesterday I saw ONE rally from 0.0014 to 0.0027
Almost doubled
I got impulsive and chased in
Currently floating a loss of 14.59%
This dog whale really knows how to play
Pump once
Attract the momentum traders
Then dump and crash the price
After cutting once, pump again
Cut again
Back and forth cutting
We retail investors are just meat on the chopping block
But this time I didn't panic
2x leverage
Liquidation price at 0.0013
Still far away
No rush to cut losses
MA10 at 0.00228
MA20 at 0.0022
As long as these two levels hold
There’s still hope for a rebound
If broken
Then accept the loss and leave
That's how meme coins are
They pump crazily
And crash hard too
I chased high
I admit it
But I won’t sell at the lowest point
Wait for it to rebound
When it rebounds to 0.0025-0.0026, I’ll exit
Just break even
No greed
Never chase meme coins high again
Really
Learned this lesson too many times
Who knows the dog whale
Help me send some local specialties
Sincerely grateful
$ONE $BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 $CORE did not create a completely independent new story; rather, after the hard fork incident, it iterated and upgraded the original BTC‑Fi narrative, shifting the promotional focus from "Bitcoin-level security" to the new rhetoric of "revenue, buybacks, Bitcoin power grid." The narrative is divided into four parts: primary new narrative, secondary derived narratives, short-term market hype topics, and the gap between narrative and reality. 1. The official top-level new narrative currently promoted: Bitcoin Power Grid + Revenue Roadmap Old narrative (first half of 2025): "Relying on Bitcoin's computing power, possessing security equivalent to Bitcoin, serving as the smart contract chain of the Bitcoin world." After the contract vulnerability on 8-31, this narrative is no longer heavily promoted, and the market does not buy it. New narrative (key external output in the second half of 2026): Positioning: no longer just about security, but likening itself to the "Bitcoin power transmission grid." Bitcoin is like a power plant with huge potential energy; CORE is the grid, transmitting dormant BTC assets to staking, DeFi, real-world payments, institutional business scenarios, converting Bitcoin's potential value into tangible protocol revenue. The core slogan shift: from "high security" to "BTCFi generates real revenue, revenue is used for secondary market buybacks of CORE." The entire logic chain: BTC enters the ecosystem to conduct various businesses (staking, lending, lstBTCOther platform tokens are lying flat with the market, but $OKB is pulling hard through burning. Is this buyback really supporting the price or creating true scarcity?
OKX is currently priced at $120, with the 21st buyback burning 6.14 million tokens worth $255 million. X Layer's TVL has surged to $232 million, further shrinking circulation.
Quarterly burns are genuinely bought back from profits with real money, so the circulation contraction is solid. X Layer uses OKB as Gas and governance anchor, and on-chain activity has found new use cases for the token. But the platform token's Achilles' heel is always compliance, as wallet private keys are still held by the exchange.
OKB's strong performance is justified by burning plus on-chain activity, but don't mistake exchange credit for risk-free returns. If the account curves of the whales can all turn from underwater to the clouds, then what exactly are we hesitating about? Don't rush to FOMO yet; what's truly worth watching this time isn't how much they earned, but that the sector strength ranking has been completely rewritten. On-chain monitoring shows that Maji's long position portfolio has held on from a floating loss of $1.4 million to a floating profit of $3 million, fully invested throughout in BTC, ETH, and HYPE, with the three positions sharing margin. The turning point is almost entirely on ETH, whose recent surge directly erased the earlier deep pit; BTC provided a stable base, and HYPE added a layer of gains following the sentiment recovery. What concerns me more is the current split in crowd psychology. Seeing others swim back from the deep waters, the impulse to chase highs grows stronger, but narrative fatigue is also accumulating simultaneously, because most altcoins held by people haven't recovered in sync. This is the real tactile sense of sector strength: the ETH ecosystem and a few strong targets are drawing attention, while weak assets' rebounds seem perfunctory. The bullish path is clear. If ETH continues to lead gains, it will drive staking, L2, and restaking narratives to regain pricing; BTC holding steady will underpin the entire market, and risk appetite will gradually shift from cautious to exploratory. But the reverse risk is equally straightforward: all three directions rise and fall together, with no hedging; ETH's weight is too high, effectively tying the account's fate to one leg; high leverage combined with ongoing funding rate deductions means time is not on their side. More subtly, these publicly verifiable whale positions themselves are targets, and counter-sniping could happen at any time.The news is heating up again: Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal, and reportedly threatened to resume bombing Iran after the midterm elections, even calling the Strait of Hormuz the "Trump Strait".
In the comments section, some people are already reacting reflexively: war, safe haven, $BTC is going to rise.
Those who play the market are most wary of this kind of "news—sentiment" straight-line reaction. This round of geopolitical risk transmission to the market is not following the safe-haven path at all, but rather the oil price—inflation—interest rate path. If a real war breaks out, oil will spike first, inflation expectations will rise, interest rates won’t come down, and risk assets will actually take the first hit.
Don’t just blindly shout that "war" is bullish for crypto. First, look at how crude oil and U.S. Treasuries are moving, then decide which side to take.9.26 BTC Data Overview
Weekend liquidity is thin, with the 84,000 level seesawing between bulls and bears, and no one dares to make the first move.
Current price is about 83,900 USDT, down slightly 0.16%-0.79% in 24h, daily low 83,183, high 85,255, down about 4% from this week's high of 87,400. Total network liquidations are about $276 million, bulls and bears almost evenly split, Bitcoin long liquidations at 43.37 million, shorts about 19.8 million. The Fear & Greed Index has risen to 74, still in greed.
Macro side sees three consecutive hawkish signals. The 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5.22%, the 30-year surpassed 5.5%, the first time since 2004. Cleveland Fed President Mester said "policy must remain restrictive," and New York Fed President Williams bluntly stated "one more rate hike this year is reasonable." The probability of a rate hike in October surged to 77.5% on Thursday, up from 53% the day before, and the University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%.
ETF net inflows have continued for 7 days but momentum is fading. On September 25, net inflow was $134 million, IBIT inflow 96.99 million, FBTC inflow 49.32 million, Bitwise BITB saw an outflow of 11.84 million against the trend. Single-day inflows have declined from 999 million on September 21, with momentum weakening by over 80%.
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 Many people ask me, you keep shouting short every day, so why is your largest spot exposure actually a high beta altcoin?
This is the other side of low-frequency big bets: directional judgment and position expression are two different things. I've already closed that short leg on perpetuals, but the net long position on spot hasn't moved. Why dare to hold a token with much higher volatility than $BTC? Because spot has no liquidation line, spikes can't kill me, I can hold through the volatility and wait for it to find its own way.
The most common mistake retail investors make is treating spot like futures—wanting to run when it rises a bit, cutting losses when it falls a bit, and in the end turning a position that should be held for months into dozens of fee-churning trades.
Holding on is harder than buying right.Today's market is just a mess of small coins flying around, the old leaders are resting, and all the funds are chasing the hype coins.
$RARE 24h +77.2% Top gainer, this kind of pump is a hard push from funds, don't chase if you haven't gotten in, most likely you'll catch the last leg.
$2Z 24h +31.7% New face, heat just starting, whether it becomes a hype coin depends on if anyone supports the pullback today.
$AMP 24h +29.2% Old coin suddenly reviving, usually a one-off move, don't treat it as a trend.
$MUBARAK 24h +26.5% Purely emotional play, the name itself is the hype, treat this like a gamble on big or small.
$ARK 24h +23.8% Pumped quite fast, but this kind of rise usually means quick sell-off, mainly watch the show.
$PROM 24h +17.5% The most "moderate" gainer on the list, actually worth a closer look, wait for the pullback not to break before deciding.
$SI is on CoinGecko trends, no price increase but heat is there, a typical accumulation coin, don't rush to chase the high.
$M87 is a new entry on the trend list, too little info, I usually avoid these, those who know, know.
$PENGU a regular on the trend list, supported by meme attributes, as long as the sentiment is there, there will be fluctuations, once sentiment leaves, it's a waterfall.
$TRUMP a staple on the trend list, political concept coin like this, pumps when news comes, slowly declines without news.
One sentence about today's list: the more violently it rises, the less you should touch it; the next wave is hidden in the trend list. Which one do you have in your hand now? ETF spot institutional fund flows: inflows are slowing down, but the direction hasn't changed; money is still coming in, just at a slower pace. There have been net inflows for 7 consecutive days, totaling about $2.98 billion. This scale is not small historically.
The real issue lies in the structure.
Funds are highly concentrated in IBIT alone. The other 11 products are either negligible or experiencing outflows. This indicates that institutional buying is selective and concentrated, not a broad institutional return.
Xiaolong's core judgment:
ETF inflows dropped from 999 million to 134 million, a slowdown of 87%, which is a clear signal of weakening short-term buying momentum. Although BlackRock is still buying, the 7-day volume of 1.35 billion shows institutions have not exited; the slowdown in inflows does not mean inflows have stopped, just that the pulse has ended and things are returning to normal.
The key is whether next week can maintain an average daily inflow above 100 million. If so, it indicates institutions are steadily building positions; if it continues to decline to tens of millions or even turns negative, short-term support will disappear, and Bitcoin's price will continue to fall and correct."Quantum Computing Threat Theory? Analysis of Bitcoin's Smooth Migration Plan to Post-Quantum Cryptography"
"Quantum computers can crack Bitcoin $BTC private keys within minutes" is one of the most widespread panic narratives in the crypto industry. However, in the cryptography community, Bitcoin's technical defense roadmap has long prepared mature post-quantum migration plans.
A realistic examination of quantum computing and Bitcoin's security boundaries:
1. Potential vulnerabilities of elliptic curves: Quantum computing targets Shor's algorithm for reverse derivation when the public key is known. But Bitcoin designs a double-hash mechanism; unspent addresses (public key hashes) do not expose the public key on-chain before initiating a transfer.
2. Soft fork upgrade of post-quantum signature algorithms: Before universal quantum computers reach a practical threat threshold, the community only needs to introduce quantum-resistant algorithms based on lattice cryptography or hash signatures (such as Lamport signatures) through a soft fork.
3. Final handling of dormant ancient addresses: Early unupgraded addresses with fully exposed public keys may in the future be frozen or forcibly migrated through consensus voting, completely eliminating the possibility of theft by quantum computing power.
Cryptography is always evolving dynamically. Bitcoin $BTC's mathematical foundation is not only built on existing algorithms but also on the consensus resilience of the entire network to embrace stronger cryptographic primitives at any time. $ETH 🔷 Altseason: index 58 out of 75
• BTC +39.3% over 90 days, ~$84k
• Altcoin Season Index: 58 (threshold 75)
• Rose from 23 (9/1) to 58 — doubled in a month
• 16 alts +100% over 90 days
• Leaders: PONS +6500%, ZEC +294%, RAY/UNI +230%, ENA +211%
• ETH +70%, HYPE +46%
🧠 Rotation is happening: capital flows into narratives (privacy, DEX, memes), not BTC. But 58 ≠ altseason (need 75). Question: will it reach or will BTC take the liquidity
🔮 Watch: index → 75, ZEC/ENA, BTC $90k
$BTC $ZEC $PONS 🔥 What is most worth being cautious about with ZEC now may not be an immediate drop, but rather the weakening of the "profit-taking effect" at high levels.
📊 From the weekly chart, the price is already in a clearly high region. After a rapid rise in the earlier phase, if it continues to push higher without a corresponding increase in volume, the risk of volatility later on naturally grows.
🧩 The daily chart is also worth watching: the price remains strong, but the longer it stays at a high level, the more pressure there is for profit-taking to accumulate. The so-called "distribution" cannot be concluded directly at this point; it’s better to wait for confirmation from price and volume.
⚠️ Interestingly, although I am cautious about ZEC’s high-level structure, I currently do not recommend blindly shorting at the top. Because the most common pattern for a strong coin is: it looks like it’s going to drop → suddenly a spike up → shorts forced to stop loss → price then consolidates again.
😮💨 I have been trapped myself, so I understand how torturous this kind of market can be. Getting the direction right doesn’t mean the entry point is right; trying to catch the top can also lead to repeated lessons from the market.
🎯 So now I prefer to wait for two signals: either a continued breakout with volume, or a real break below key support. In the middle area, I’d rather do less.
👀 Do you think ZEC’s next move will be a high-level bull trap, or will it first show a genuine breakdown? $ZEC #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 【Crypto Circle Script】
#特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变
I'm Script Bro, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has changed again. Oil prices probably won't settle down these days. A few days ago, the market was still fantasizing that Iran was willing to open the Strait of Hormuz, and everyone almost finished writing the "peace script." But then news came from the US that Trump rejected the plan, and the market instantly started recalculating the cost of war.
So I think the most interesting thing now isn't who is being tougher with words, but that the market is being toyed with back and forth by these few sentences. Yesterday, a single "willing to talk" could crash crude oil prices; today, a single "rejection" can make oil prices bounce back. You say this is investing, but it somewhat feels like guessing the leader's next words.
It's the same for the crypto circle. If oil prices really surge, inflation expectations will be harder to bring down, giving the Federal Reserve one more reason not to ease, and BTC will naturally suffer along. So on the surface, this looks like a Middle East issue, but in the end, it circles back to liquidity.
I now feel the most dangerous thing isn't the bad news itself, but that the market has a new script every day. Do you think this time it's really going to be a hard confrontation, or just another round of negotiation chips? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SOL Bitcoin ETF Spot Institutional Fund Flows: Inflows Are Slowing Down, a Significant Hidden Risk Is Emerging!
Friends, let's first look at the latest ETF institutional fund flow situation (as shown in the figure below):
Yesterday, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $134 million, marking the 7th consecutive day of net inflows.
However, the amount is continuously declining, which is not a good sign! ETF institutions are no longer aggressively buying BTC.
Let's look at the fund flow rhythm over this week:
September 21, single-day inflow of $999 million, setting the highest record in 2026.
September 22, $715 million.
September 23, $347 million.
September 24, $191 million.
September 25, $134 million.
From $999 million to $134 million, a drop of 87% over five days.
BlackRock IBIT remains the absolute main buyer of BTC among ETF institutions.
On September 25, IBIT had a single-day inflow of $96.99 million, accounting for 72% of the total inflow that day. Fidelity FBTC inflowed $49.32 million; together, these two accounted for almost all inflows.
In the past 7 trading days, IBIT has cumulatively inflowed about $1.35 billion, nearly half of the total inflow in the entire ETF category.
What does this mean?
ETF buying is rapidly slowing down. Monday's $999 million was a pulse inflow driven by short squeeze and FOMO sentiment combined, followed by three consecutive days of decline, indicating that chasing funds are retreating.
The direction hasn't changed; money is still coming in, just less so.I'm done playing, give me back my money. I was wrong, I never really won.
---
【The account is already a complete mess】
I glanced at the analysis page and was completely broken:
· Total profit and loss in the last 30 days: -¥3,313.0
· Profit and loss today: -¥1,126.9
· Win rate: 28.57%
On the calendar, the 21st was -1.9k, the 22nd -868, the 25th -150, and today the 26th is another -1.1k. Only the 23rd made 732, that little green among all this red is glaringly ridiculous.
【ONE blew up again on this trade】
One second I was watching it rise to 0.0027, thinking it was finally turning around, the next second a big bearish candle smashed it back to 0.0023.
A +0.45% floating profit instantly turned into a -7.96% crash.
From 0.00147 to 0.0027, it nearly doubled; then from 0.0027 smashed back to 0.0023, gone in minutes. This candlestick chart is more thrilling than a roller coaster, and I’m the passenger who got thrown off.
From SanDisk to ETH, from AKE to ONE, I lost on longs and shorts alike. When I made money, I cautiously ran fast; when I lost, I stubbornly held on until liquidation.
Every time I thought "this time is different," every time the market ground me down.
Give me back my money, I was wrong.
$ONE $BTC $ETH
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 🔥$ZEC Brothers, sincerely advising: The current position of ZEC looks increasingly off.
📉 The weekly chart has already reached a high area; the higher the price goes, the lower the cost-effectiveness of chasing the rise. The biggest fear is another spike up with a wick, sucking in the last batch of bullish sentiment, then the high level starts to loosen.
🧠 The daily chart also shows obvious fatigue; the price is still grinding at a high level, but the strength of the rise is no longer as decisive as before. A high-level consolidation doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate crash, but it does mean profit-taking and new buying funds are re-battling.
⚠️ But I want to especially remind: being bearish doesn’t mean you should short now! ZEC’s volatility can keep the top grinding for a long time or suddenly pull up again. Without a clear breakout, blindly trying to top-pick can easily get you repeatedly stopped out.
😮💨 I’m already stuck inside myself, so this time I really don’t want to see brothers jump into the pit again. Chasing highs is risky, and trying to top-pick is equally dangerous.
🎯 My approach is simple: don’t chase at the top, wait for a breakout, if no signal then wait. It’s okay to miss some gains, don’t risk your principal for a few hundred points.
👀 Brothers, do you think ZEC is distributing at the top now, or can it still make another sprint? #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 Today's strategy sharing: A few days ago, I was surprised that the main account could follow the orders of the sub-accounts. Today, I followed with 50U to test whether copy trading can be profitable and how profit sharing is settled. It is recommended to select market price copy trading. Strategy structure: It is trend-following, with 59 position legs maintained long-term. New positions (from no position to opening a position) are low-frequency events; most adjustments involve increasing, decreasing, or maintaining existing positions. The strategy supports short selling, but current signals are biased towards long. The simulation has already achieved a profit of 113.9U, and the live profit has reached +2.7U (realized profit after deducting fees). The strategy has relatively low drawdown, with backtested annualized returns roughly between 20% and 30%. The live performance has not yet been verified as it just started recently. On September 23rd, ZEC touched $1,680, much like an opponent pushing the queen in front of my king's wing by the seventh move of the opening—an imposing momentum, but at the cost of staking the entire rear on a pawn structure not yet settled.
I've sat at this table for thirty years, and what I fear most is never the opponent making a strong move, but suddenly having an unexpected path I can't calculate. Europe's first physically-backed ZEC note landed in Paris and Amsterdam; its value lies not in those few contracts themselves, but in how it forcibly opens a long diagonal line for a group of funds blocked by rules at the door. Previously, they could only watch through the pawn chain; now, by routing through traditional brokerage accounts, they can stake without managing private keys themselves—this is equivalent to me moving the king off the baseline, allowing the rook on the rear wing to truly join the attack for the first time.
The phrase "physically-backed" refers to the pieces, not an illusion of strength. The open paper position is an offensive gained by sacrificing a piece; it collapses as soon as the wind stops. Only when coins truly lie in the vault does it form a supporting structure behind the rook and king. This is my first iron rule for judging whether an opening is worth deep exploration.
Falling back from $1,680 to around $1,500, most would read it as the offense being blocked. I interpret it oppositely: it's a reassessment after the exchange. The initial surge was a probing pawn sacrifice; the market was testing the opponent's response strength. The retreat is not a collapse but the pieces returning to coordinated squares. The real killer move is never played on the first turn.
The testnet on October 6th and the target mainnet on November 5th are two chess clocks. The most precious resource in the midgame is always time. A player preparing to complete two structural upgrades within two deadlines holds a living pawn structure; conversely, if the clock runs out before the pieces move, that long diagonal is just a line drawn on paper.
Looking at cross-market linkage: a piece's movement on one board affects time allocation on another—those who play simultaneous games understand best: if you think five extra minutes on the first board, you must play faster on the second. When traditional capital channels and on-chain asset valuations begin to recite each other's moves, correlation is no longer background noise but a situation actively created by the opponent. The deadliest mistake in this scenario is not misreading direction but treating two boards as one.
Before I move, I calculate twenty moves ahead. Currently, I focus on three layers: the surface is the offense and defense of price and sentiment; the middle is the opening and closing of capital channels, moves that can rewrite the pawn structure; the bottom is the timetable—who is locked into a time window and who must complete upgrades within specified turns.
Position management is pawn structure management. Isolated pawns, stacked pawns, lagging pawns—all will collect debts with interest in the endgame. True masters do not seek to be fierce every move; they seek that no matter which branch the game takes, they are never forced to respond.
In this game, White has just completed a long castle, while Black's rear wing pawn chain has one last square to move. #21shareszcashetpStaring blankly at the overnight flow — Bitcoin spot ETF saw another day of inflow, but the single-day amount is noticeably smaller than yesterday.
According to SoSoValue, the total net inflow on 9/25 Eastern Time was about 134 million, marking the seventh consecutive day; IBIT led with approximately 97 million, FBTC followed with about 49.3 million, while BITB had a net outflow of roughly 11.85 million. The inflow continues over seven days, but the single-day amount dropped from 191 million. OKX spot is currently hovering around 83,940, with a 24h high just touching 84,340 and a low still hanging at 83,175 — money is coming in, but the weekend market isn’t very cooperative.
Spot 24h trading volume is about 266 million U. First, watch if 83,500/83,200 can hold; above that, 84,500 needs to be reclaimed. $ETH is around 2,685, so don’t recklessly add leverage on either side.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #DataAnalysis #ETFInflow #CapitalInflow #WeekendOvernight #RiskWarning
The above is personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice. Contracts carry risks; enter the market cautiously. During this BTC correction, I’m starting to suspect that those who can’t hold on the longest might be the people watching the market every day.
Some have already begun studying the next bear market after seeing BTC drop from 87,200. I want to ask, what exactly are those who have experienced full bull and bear cycles and hold a large amount of BTC doing now?
In March 2024, long-term holders were frantically transferring coins to exchanges, with daily inflows once exceeding five times the annual average. When the market peaked in 2025, they actually became much quieter. Later, as the market weakened, the annual average inflow rose from about 600 coins per day to 1,000, and some chips stuck at high levels began to loosen.
Recently, the inflow volume from long-term holders to exchanges has dropped back below the annual average.
I’m quite curious now to see if these veteran players who have experienced big ups and downs will continue to reduce chip transfers. Of course, less coin transfer doesn’t necessarily mean they are accumulating; on-chain signals still need to be confirmed by price action.
The BTC 15-minute MA20 is around 84,000. My plan is to first see if 83,800–84,000 can hold, then consider longs again if it breaks above 84,580, with a target of 85,250.
Right now, I’m still bullish but don’t plan to increase leverage yet. Until 85,000 is taken, any rebound could still be volatile.
Long-term holders’ activity has already shown signs of cooling down. Next, it depends on whether the market has enough new buying power.
Old chips aren’t in a hurry to move for now, and I don’t need to mess up my trading rhythm over a few 15-minute candlesticks. #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.84 billion, reversing the 2026 fund flow from a net outflow of $5.8 billion to a net inflow of about $800 million, marking the strongest short-term rebound since October 2025.
The inflow pattern this round is "high at the start, low at the end": on September 21, a single-day net inflow of $999 million was recorded, the highest in 11 months, then gradually decreased daily to $191 million. Funds are highly concentrated, with BlackRock IBIT absorbing about $1.02 billion over four days, followed closely by Fidelity FBTC, ARKB, and others.
Three factors drive the reversal: first, Bitcoin’s price rose from less than $58,000 in early June to over $85,000, an increase of about 35%; second, US Treasury Secretary Yellen announced in August an increase in long-term Treasury repurchases, seen as a liquidity easing signal; third, institutional allocation logic shifted, with a Coinbase survey showing 66% of institutional crypto investors prefer allocation via ETFs.
However, sustainability remains to be seen. The six-day inflow is less than half of the $4.73 billion during the same period in November 2024, and the intensity has clearly weakened. CryptoQuant points out that Coinbase’s premium spread turned negative, indicating a decline in domestic US spot demand; Santiment warns that abnormal inflows often occur near local turning points. The funding environment has emerged from the cold winter, but whether it can translate into sustained trend buying depends on whether subsequent inflows can stabilize.A $1.3 billion fund has been poured onto the blockchain—this is not just renovation, it's turning the entire building's property certificate into tradable bricks.
ARK has taken the already constructed asset building ARKVX and, through Securitize's construction team, performed a structural property rights reconstruction on Ethereum. Previously, fund shares were paper blueprints locked in a safe—you could only look, not dismantle; now each ownership share is cut into standardized load-bearing units that can be recorded, transferred, and pledged on-chain. This is not "issuing a token," this is turning every square meter of an entire existing building into tradable cadastral units.
I examined its holding structure: OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX. This is a very sophisticated load-bearing design—not putting all the weight on a single pillar, but spanning the intelligence layer, model layer, and hardware transport layer. Truly top-tier projects never win by flashy exterior decorations but by the reinforcement ratio of their foundation. Equity in the primary market used to be a closed shear wall structure, with retail investors unable to even enter the lobby; now this wall has been opened, becoming a passable atrium.
But I want to remind you of a construction-level issue: a $1.3 billion market cap does not equal $1.3 billion of real load-bearing capacity. On-chain solutions address "how to register and transfer," not "whether the underlying company can continue to appreciate." The biggest mistake in the RWA product line is focusing only on fine decoration and forgetting foundation exploration. Moving stocks and venture capital shares on-chain, the demand side's carrying capacity is the key to whether this building is livable—if the chain only "moves it over" without "putting it to use," then it's a model house without water or electricity.
Looking at cross-market linkage: US stock tokenized assets and on-chain fund shares are forming the same structural system, like two sets of loads hanging on the same beam. When the cost of generational transfer of traditional equity decreases, capital will recalculate the risk exposure it is willing to bear. This migration is not a change in decorative style but a replacement of the load-bearing system—once completed, the pricing inertia of the old structure will become invalid.
My professional judgment is straightforward: this is a successful foundational structural innovation, but the main structure is not yet topped out. Construction is ongoing, and the scaffolding has not been removed. #arktokenizes1.3bfundGrayscale于9月25日向SEC递交ZCSH High Income ETF申请，拟每两周派息一次，通过期权策略间接跟踪Zcash（$ZEC ）。 👉🏻短期影响 消息一出，市场情绪先热了起来。 ZCSH作为全球首个ZEC现货ETF，上市后AUM已快速攀升到近9亿美元级别，期权也刚开出。 新基金至少80%资产投向ZCSH相关期权，卖出看涨期权收权利金来派息。短期估计会推高ZCSH交易量和期权流动性，间接带动现货ZEC需求。 类似高收益ETF对标的资产常见“情绪溢价”，ZEC大概率可能会先迎来一波资金关注和波动放大。 但别忘了，申请还没生效，预计最早12月初，短期更多是情绪驱动，实际买入力还得等批准落地。 👉🏻长期影响 这是机构产品线深化的信号。 ZCSH已经把隐私币正式拉进华尔街视野，高收益版本再加一层“被动收息”属性，能吸引更多追求现金流的资金。 期权策略会增加ZCSH的持仓和交易活跃度，长期有助于ZEC生态的机构化程度。 不过风险也很实在：卖出看涨会限制上涨空间，下跌时仍全额暴露，派息不保证，部分可能只是本金返还。 如果市场持续看好隐私赛道，这类产品能形成正反馈；反之，$AVGO
Demand for custom AI chips is rising. Can Broadcom narrow the valuation gap with general-purpose GPUs?
Large customers need to reduce inference costs, so custom chips and network business gain room. If order expansion continues with high profit margins, cash flow will keep improving.
If customer concentration risk increases or new orders slow down, I will lower growth expectations. Early this morning, Boomer went wild again, buying 6,000 $ZEC in batches within just 15 minutes, directly dumping $9.35 million, with an average entry price of 1558.9.
This guy probably went to sleep right after buying. Just now, looking at it, wow, a floating loss of $170,000! Looks like even deep pockets can't withstand the scalper's blade.
What's even more interesting is that today he didn't just buy ZEC; he also opened long positions of $1.5 million in $UNI, $1.01 million in PENGU, and $1.52 million in WLD. You can tell he's frantically bottom-fishing and building positions, and ZEC is the one he's betting hardest on, rushing like he's grabbing eggs at the supermarket, afraid to miss out by even a second.
Honestly, ZEC, this veteran privacy coin, usually moves like an old turtle, barely budging. This big player suddenly puts real money into this old tree's roots, building positions urgently over 15 minutes. It just feels a bit fishy. Is he genuinely bullish on the privacy sector taking off, or does he know something in advance?BTC is still fluctuating around 84000, but long-term holders have started to pull back. This market situation actually makes me more patient!
The most interesting recent market changes might be hidden in the wallets of those long-term holders. BTC previously pulled back from 87200 to around 83000; short-term traders are busy judging ups and downs, but the amount of old coins held for a long time being transferred to exchanges is gradually decreasing.
Looking back to March 2024, the daily inflow to exchanges from long-term holders once exceeded the annual average by 5 times. By the 2025 peak, this group of funds became less active. Then the market weakened, and the annual average inflow increased from about 600 coins to 1000 coins, with some high-level buyers possibly choosing to cut losses and exit.
Now the situation has changed again; the inflow from long-term holders to exchanges has dropped back below the annual average, and signs of concentrated chip transfers have eased.
I quite like this change, but I won’t directly call it a bottom confirmation. Reduced exchange inflows don’t mean there’s no selling pressure, nor do they indicate a surge tomorrow.
According to the previous chart, BTC’s 15-minute MA20 is at 84132. For the short term, I’m watching 84000 first; if it stabilizes above 84580, I’ll consider following up with a target of 85250. If it breaks below 83800, I’ll wait for 83500 or even 83170 to find support again.
I still lean towards continuing to be bullish; long-term positions won’t be easily shaken by short-term volatility, and short-term trades will wait for breakout confirmation.
Old players are starting to reduce coin transfers, yet the price is still consolidating. If spot buying can continue to support, I remain bullish.I was eating dinner when I came across a message that made me stop mid-bite.
On September 24th, an anonymous wallet was detected on-chain transferring 250 million Dogecoins, worth over 23 million USD, into a top exchange. The address is a string of characters; no one knows who it belongs to.
Such large transfers usually mean one of two things: either preparing to sell or just moving coins to another storage. In the past, news like this would immediately crash the market. But this time, the price hovered around 0.093 without crashing.
I have to admit, at first I was sweating in my palms and almost placed a sell order. I placed it, then canceled it. Later, I realized one thing: if someone really wanted to dump the market, they wouldn’t show you the transfer record in advance. If they want to run, quietly running is common sense. Making a big show of transferring in probably means they have other plans.
So today, I neither added to my position nor sold. I turned off app notifications and took a peaceful nap. My position is small enough that I can sleep soundly even if I lose everything; holding this position to sleep on it won’t cause losses.
Contract traders fear a single needle, but Dogecoin spot holders get through by sleeping it off. Faith, when spoken grandly, is a slogan; when spoken simply, it’s just one sentence: I don’t want to be a deserter when it’s cheap.