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最後來從消息面，還有後續要觀察哪些，來跟大家做個結尾。 先講結論：假日流動性差，但比特幣跟以太幣都往上，昨天照建議開頭倉做多的朋友，現在是浮盈的。點位跟看法都沒變，照紀律、止盈止損做好，方向還是要等下禮拜的數據確認。 盤面：比特幣大約 84,900、以太大約 2,713，都比昨晚墊高。山寨也跟著漲，Solana 大約 124.4，以 OKX 日線來看是今年 1 月底以來的新高；狗狗大約 0.0979，還在 0.1 下面；瑞波大約 1.537，小幅反彈。空單的止損，Solana 140、狗狗 0.12、瑞波 1.7，目前都沒有被觸發。 合約面（OKX，傍晚 6 點左右）：比特幣資金費率還是小幅負值，大約 -0.0019%，未平倉量比下午少一點點，這次上漲不是靠槓桿推的；以太費率大約 0.0057%、未平倉量小增。山寨這邊槓桿在堆：狗狗未平倉量比下午多快三趴、瑞波多三趴多；多空人數比狗狗大約 3.08、瑞波大約 2.75，散戶擠在多方。Solana 下午那根拉升有擠空成分，根據 TokenPost 統計，台灣時間下午 4 點前後一個小時內，Solana 在幣安、Bybit、OKX 爆倉大約I don't know how many times it has risen now
This is the first time after trading $ZEC that I woke up without tears streaming down my face
It turns out ZEC can really be longed
My short positions are still stuck
The bullets I had left, which were already few
Suddenly became abundant
The previous dual long-short trap pattern
Has already reversed
That's right, currently the long positions are profitable
The short positions are still painfully stuck
In terms of position size
The short positions are twice the size of the long positions
After this incident, I finally understand
You can't blindly hold positions
Because you don't know your own tolerance limit
You really can't hold on to the upper limit of the rise
Stop-loss and position control are really important
$BTC, because of its large market cap
Should be safe outside of cyclical bull markets
$ETH is also always visible and predictable no matter how it rises
Only unknown sector leaders
Can beat people to a pulp
This time I learned a lesson the hard way
And now #US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies This is just the beginning
It is estimated the bull run will continue for a while
So I really hate it
If I had another chance, I would definitely go long on ZEC
If I could do it again, I would definitely cut losses at 500
Current position summary
-3045.83-440.46+2148.7+108.76=-1228.83
Losses are getting smaller
Waiting to break even and then sell
I am Kuang Kuang
Future is promising
@你的爱播Misa @小确幸(Bch是世界上最有价值的币) @毓鑫YuXin @皮神⚡ @币圈搅屎棍 SNDK's volume on Sunday was so low it couldn't even spark a flicker; after touching 1781, it quickly pulled back, and the high point at 1906 feels like it's from another century.
Yesterday's low was 1761, high 1787, closing at 1774. Today it opened around 1773, with a high of 1781 and a low of 1766, current price about 1768. Volume dropped from 710,000 to 100,000, with almost no quotes over the weekend.
Resistance remains between 1781 and 1814, with 1906 above that. If 1766 breaks below, it’s likely to test 1761 first; if that level can't hold, the short term may look for space down to 1727.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 1768 can hold. If it can't, treat it as still digesting the drop from 1906 and don't chase this price now. For those already holding, watch if the low at 1766 today can support; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and consider only if it can't break through 1814; don't catch a falling knife mid-air. $SNDK 🔥$BTC ETF attracted 2.4 billion in inflows in one week, $ETH recovered 690 million, $SOL set a single-day inflow record: What exactly did institutions buy this week?
This week, institutions are not just hyping, but putting real money in. As of the week ending September 25, the US spot $BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $2.4 billion, one of the strongest weeks in 2026. IBIT led with about $1.2 billion, FBTC about $700 million, ARKB about $290 million, with seven consecutive trading days of net inflows totaling about $3 billion, pulling the net inflow for the year from a loss of $580 million back to a slight positive. To translate: $BTC at 84,000 is not retail investors pumping the price, but compliant funds building positions weekly.
$ETH is even more dramatic. In previous weeks, it experienced repeated net outflows due to redemptions and staking expectations. This week, the spot $ETH ETF had a net inflow of about $690 million, with ETHA about $326 million, FETH about $174 million, bringing the net increase for the year back to about $1.6 billion, and total product assets to about $17.8 billion; combined with infrastructure updates like the Erigon/Glamsterdam testnets, 2700 is not just a technical level but supported by ETF buying.
$SOL’s most impressive aspect is the pace: weekly ETF net inflow about $188 million, with a single-day record of $86.7 million on Friday since listing, total product assets about $1.5 billion; plus Solmate treasury holding about 1.24 million $SOL, valued at about $146.7 million, both on-chain and compliant channels are increasing.The XAU candlestick on Sunday barely moved, fluctuating around 4280 by a few dozen points back and forth. The gold weekend wore everyone out.
Yesterday's low was 4278, the high was 4296, and it closed at 4281. Today it opened near 4281, with a high of 4282 and a low of 4278, current price around 4280. Volume dropped from 5.24 million to 580,000, basically no transactions.
Resistance remains between 4296 and 4311, with further resistance from 4369 to 4429. If 4278 breaks below, it’s likely to first test 4256; if that level also fails, the short term may look for space around 4248.
In the short term, watch if the current price can hold around 4280. If it can’t hold, consider it as still digesting the drop from 4429, and don’t chase the current price. For those already holding, watch if the low of 4278 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy on dips, wait for a pullback and failure to break 4311 before considering, don’t catch a falling knife mid-air. $XAU 消息面上，伊朗今天表示條件不讓步，還在等美方正式回覆；美國財長貝森特說經濟封鎖對伊朗的壓力在發酵。下禮拜數據很密集，都是台灣時間：週二晚上 10 點 JOLTS；週三晚上 8 點 15 分 ADP、8 點半 8 月 PCE；週四晚上 10 點 ISM；週五晚上 8 點半 9 月非農。Evernorth 的股東表決在台灣時間 10 月 1 日凌晨 12 點左右。 總而言之，假日流動性差，但大餅跟以太往上，頭倉已經浮盈；點位跟看法都沒變。比特幣 8 萬附近補倉，極短線止損 78,000、中長線 75,000，目標 9 萬到 10 萬見仁見智；以太 2,500 附近補倉，止損 2,300 左右。Solana 140 照空；狗狗 0.1 空、0.1 補、0.12 止損；瑞波現在到 1.7 之間補空、1.7 止損，空單止損都還沒被觸發，不追不慌。止盈看個人，止損照紀律，不要上頭。$BTC reported at 84,950, up 1.04% in 24h, with short liquidations of $4.97 million, more than twice the $2.32 million in long liquidations. This upward move is mainly driven by short covering. For metal price increases to pass through to crypto prices, manufacturing profits must first be squeezed, then risk appetite suppressed; the chain is very long. None of these links are moving in our data: stablecoin supply remains at $314.1 billion without contraction, DVOL is low at 34.9, options put/call ratio is 0.86, indicating no one is paying a premium for downside. More importantly, the position structure shows retail long/short ratio dropping from 1.3036 to 1.2779, while large holders' ratio rises from 1.9208 to 1.9245; retail is reducing longs, large holders are adding longs, indicating a bullish structure. Conclusion: $BTC is short-term bullish, first watch if it can hold above 84,957. Bearish conditions: funding rate turns negative continuously, while put/call ratio rises from 0.95 and DVOL increases simultaneously—if this signal set appears, it means metal cost pressure has evolved into macro risk aversion, invalidating this bullish judgment.🚨 $SOON JUST LIT UP THE 4H CHART 🔥 $SOON jumped roughly **28% in one 4H candle**, moving from around **$0.21 → $0.269**, while 24H trading volume climbed toward **$14M**. At first glance, it looks like another classic pump. 👀 But one interesting detail is the derivatives data: funding is still close to neutral, around **0.018%**, suggesting the move isn't obviously being fueled by excessive leveraged longs. The biggerTHORChain @THORChain is so hypocritical.
Bitget was hacked for $387.5 million, and some of the stolen funds were converted into BTC through it. Gracy called on it to refuse service to the hacker's address.
It replied: We are permissionless just like BTC and ETH, so what responsibility should they bear?
Bro, you got robbed of $10.8 million in May this year and shut down all network transactions for over ten hours, forgot?
It's not that you can't be decentralized, but if you want to be, be thorough about it. 🚨 $PUMP / $SOL TREASURY MOVE — SHOULD HOLDERS PANIC? Pump.fun just moved another **~43,600 $SOL**, worth roughly **$5.3M**, to an exchange. 👀 That adds to a much larger history of SOL disposals. Recent on-chain tracking puts Pump.fun’s cumulative sales around **5.24M SOL**, worth approximately **$848M**, with an average selling price near **$162**. But here’s the important part: A large transfer to an exchange does **not automatically mean every token was immediately dumped on the market**. E我們來看一下瑞波的部分。 先講大盤：假日流動性差，但比特幣跟以太幣今天往上，昨天照建議開頭倉做多的朋友，現在應該是浮盈的。山寨也跟著動，瑞波從下午 1.53 左右小幅反彈到 1.54 附近。 現價約 1.537。 看法沒變：瑞波 1.7 止損，從現在到 1.7 之間，想要補倉就可以去補空。 冷靜看一下：瑞波今天只是小幅反彈，離 1.7 還有一段，止損沒有被觸發。如果它繼續往上彈，照計畫在 1.7 之前分批補空就好；真的到 1.7，就照計畫止損，破了一定走，不要凹單。不用因為大盤漲就慌著砍，也不要一次把子彈打光追空。 大餅做多、瑞波做空，原因一樣：每個幣有自己的壓力位置。瑞波這週衝到 1.63 就被打回來，上面的賣壓很明顯。但大方向偏多，山寨被帶上去的機會存在，所以倉位一定要控好。止盈看個人，止損照紀律，不要上頭。 籌碼面上，OKX 瑞波永續的未平倉量大約 7,750 萬顆，比下午又多了三趴多，槓桿持續在堆；資金費率大約 0.0063%，比下午再低一點。多空人數比大約 2.75，比下午還高，做多的帳戶越來越擠。截至今天早上 9 點半的 24 小時，全網最大的一筆爆倉是 HyperliquI don't trade the crowd's orders — I watch the positioning and the expectations. When big players start leaning short, the interesting part isn't simply whether they stay short. The real question is whether the market forces them to flip or cover. Two things are worth watching: 📌 BTC is holding above its 50-week moving average. 📌 Price is still respecting the major ~$79K–$82K accumulation/cost area. That gives the chart some structural support, but I'm not calling a confirmed bull reversal yetBoss Shi cleared all short positions with one click, and many friends fell silent instantly.
The silence is not because someone admitted defeat, but because no one dared to respond. The same action can be interpreted in two ways: he might be preparing to go long, or simply doesn't want to be squeezed anymore.
So I only look at the price reaction after the action, not the action itself.
Before two hard conditions are met, any "bullish quick rebound" is premature celebration:
First, the weekly chart must hold above the 50-week moving average; second, the price must hold the 78,000–82,000 major holder cost zone. If the second is broken, the cost zone immediately becomes a trapped zone.
The key levels are set here:
$BTC support at 85,000 / 82,000–82,500, resistance at 86,000–86,600 / 88,000
$ETH support at 2,700 / 2,630–2,660, resistance at 2,750–2,800 / 3,000
$SOL support at 115–116 / 110–113, resistance at 120 / 123–126
My rule is to only buy at support levels and never act before resistance levels. Now all three coins are stuck in the middle zone, looking lively but actually with no good positions. If my hands itch, I just tie them up.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Let's take a look at Dogecoin. Let's start with the overall market: liquidity was poor on the weekend, but Bitcoin and Ethereum rose today. Yesterday, friends who followed the recommendation to start long positions are now floating profits. Cryptocoins also rose slightly today, and Dogecoin also made some moves. The current price is about 0.0979, a slight increase today, but still below 0.1, with a high of about 0.0987. My view hasn't changed, same routine: near 0.1, you can short, buy at 0.1, stop loss at 0.12. You need to stay calm here. Dogecoin hasn't reached 0.1 yet, meaning our short position hasn't reached yet, and the pre-order is still waiting; Even if you already have short positions, the stop loss at 0.12 is still far away and hasn't been triggered. So there's no need to get nervous just because it rose today, and don't chase short positions at the bottom in advance. Wait until the price hits. Watching small rises and falls on weekends only makes you more eager to act. Once you've set your position, go rest. Bullish Biting and Dog Shorting for the same reason as Solana: each coin has its own resistance level. Dog Dog held above 0.1 from Monday to Wednesday, then fell back again, showing selling pressure at 0.1. But when the overall trend is bullish, sentiment coins are easily pulled together, so it's always a small position. Once 0.12 is broken, exit immediately. Don't hold on or push your stop loss upward. Take profit depends on the individual; don't get carried away. In terms of chips, OKX Dog Sustainability's funding rate is 0.01%, which is normal; Open interest is about 1.08 billion tokens, nearly 3% more than this afternoon, with leverage still slowly accumulating. Ratio of longs and shorts"Earning Billions Annually Surpassing BlackRock: Stablecoin Giant Tether Is Frenziedly Hoarding Bitcoin with Its Profits!"
Who is the most profitable company in the crypto space? It's neither Binance nor Coinbase, but the underlying company issuing USDT, Tether. The latest financial report audited by BDO shows that Tether's quarterly net profits have repeatedly hit new highs of several billion dollars, even surpassing the vast majority of traditional established commercial banks! Even more astonishing, they announced that 15% of their quarterly net profits are directly converted into spot Bitcoin $BTC!
This is an unstoppable on-chain buying and pumping machine:
1. Collecting massive risk-free interest from U.S. Treasury bonds: Global users have deposited nearly $100 billion to purchase USDT, and Tether uses these funds to buy large amounts of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, earning tens of billions of dollars in annualized interest effortlessly.
2. Continuous passive spot buying: Tether does not need to borrow money from secondary markets; they directly use the real cash profits earned from U.S. Treasury bonds to blindly buy tens of thousands of Bitcoin on the spot market every quarter, storing them directly in cold wallets as excess reserves.
3. A hardened closed loop of reserve assets: Their Bitcoin $BTC holdings have risen to the forefront among global enterprises. As the coin price increases, the asset reserves backing USDT become more solid than those of most traditional banks with partial reserves.
Using dollar interest to regularly supply Bitcoin $BTC, this financial gear is already in motion and no one can stop it.5800 $BTC have been released from Coinbase's collateral vault.
Riot has repaid its $200 million credit line in full, retrieving the collateral intact.
First reaction: Is this mining company really flush with cash, or do they just want to avoid interest charges?
Simply put, it's one thing — deleveraging.
For Riot itself, this is risk reduction, not negative news. A mining company proactively repaying debt is much more dignified than being liquidated.
What about the market? Don’t rush to call a big bull market. The release of 5800 $BTC doesn’t mean 5800 $BTC will be dumped. The collateral returning to their own pocket just means they no longer have to worry about liquidation.
What really matters is what happens next: will these coins just sit idle, or quietly move into exchanges?
At this point, I’m more inclined to wait and see. Mining companies actively reducing leverage is a good thing, but it’s still a step away from driving a rally.
No real money has come in yet; no matter how good the story is, we have to wait.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 $BTC The US spot BTC ETF just posted one of the strongest weeks of the year: a cumulative net inflow of about $2.386 billion from September 21 to 25.
But looking only at the weekly total misses the most important changes.
The daily net inflows over five days were $999 million, $715 million, $347 million, $191 million, and $135 million respectively—
a continuous decline, shrinking about 86.5% from Monday to Friday.
At the same time, BTC fell back from a high of about $87,300 to around $84,000.
So the current data does not indicate "institutional funds disappearing," but rather:
Sustained net inflows ≠ increased marginal demand.
Adding to this, the 10-year US Treasury yield once reached about 5.11%, making it easier to explain why the price has struggled to break through.
The next step to verify involves two variables: whether ETF daily inflows can expand again, and whether BTC can reclaim the $85,000–$87,400 range. If inflows continue to decline and the price remains constrained, the significance of the weekly $2.39 billion figure will need to be downgraded.Let's take a look at Solana. Let's start with the overall market: liquidity was poor on holidays, but today both Bitcoin and Ethereum rose. Friends who started long positions as suggested yesterday should now be floating profits. Knockoff stocks also rose today, with Solana being the one that rose more. Current price is about 124.4, up more than 2% today, reaching near 125. Looking at OKX's daily chart, this is the highest since the end of January this year. But my view hasn't changed: Solana can be shorted, and the 140 point remains unchanged. Many people might be worried, wondering if the short positions are stuck. Calmly observe: 140 is resistance and a stop-loss level. Currently, 124 is still some distance from 140, so the stop-loss hasn't been triggered. Setting the stop-loss there means we don't panic every single bar that rises. What you can do is stick to the plan: keep your position small, set your stop-loss well, don't add to your short position, and don't cut blindly out of fear. So why go long on Bitcoin and short on Solana? I've said this many times: for Bitcoin and Ethereum, I look at levels after healthy pullbacks; for Solana, I look at the resistance above 140. Going long refers to the overall direction; not every coin is going long at the same time. Because the overall trend is bullish, altcoins are carried up together, so Solana short positions are always small test positions. As mentioned before, add positions as usual, no need to add last-minute positions. Take profit depends on the individual; stop loss according to discipline and don't get carried away. On the chip side, part of today's rally was a squeeze out. According to THeld for three years, average price 2026, sold 112,000 $ETH in one week.
No movement for three years, then all in one week. Withdrawn 130,000 from Bitfinex three years ago at an average price of 2026. This week sold 112,000, pocketing 72.83 million. He only did one thing: converted three years of profit into USD.
Why now? 112,000 is not a small amount, sold out in one week, indicating someone doesn't want to wait for the next cycle. My guess: not bearish, but matured. The three-year term is up, time to cash out.
Honestly: he held for three years, I think three days is too long. Respect.
$ETH #BTC spot ETF net inflows nearly $3 billion for 7 consecutive days #US long-term bond yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies #Earnings Watcher: Micron earnings approaching, AI storage demand in focus If you’re asking “what should I do with this trade?”, the biggest issue is the ETH 100x short. With liquidation at 2730.5 and price around 2711.8, there’s only about 18.7 points (~0.69%) of room.
I’d treat this as a risk-management situation, not a prediction game:
ETH: Don’t rely on “it can’t go higher.” At 100x, a small continuation move can liquidate you before a reversal happens. If 2720–2730 breaks with momentum, protecting the remaining capital matters more than being right.#DailyOrbit This time shorting $BTC, I'll first lay out my own trading logic.
Shorted at 83920, now the price has returned above 84300, temporarily stuck with a loss of over four hundred points. Honestly, opening a short at this position is uncomfortable, but I'm not simply looking at whether the K-line falls or not.
A few days ago, Iran proposed a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days. The market once started trading along the line of "easing → oil price falling → risk assets recovering.Why can $UNI rise to $10? Look at one data point: in the past 30 days, tokenized stocks generated $20.9 billion in trading volume. Who took the biggest share? UNI v4: 40.7%, UNI v3: 19.4%, combined for 60.1%, about $12.6 billion, $UNI alone took six-tenths. What does this number mean?
First, tokenized stocks are no longer just a concept. $20.9 billion in trading volume over 30 days means real money is moving. Second, Uniswap's moat is deeper than imagined. 我們來看一下以太幣的部分。 先講重點：假日流動性差，但以太幣也跟著往上了。昨天說可以在這邊慢慢築底，有照著先開頭倉的朋友，現在應該是浮盈的。 現價約 2,713。昨晚大概在 2,688，今天站回 2,700 上面，最高碰到 2,720 附近。 看法沒有變，點位也沒有變。照紀律做事，止盈止損做好。 點位照舊：補倉在 2,500 附近，止損壓 2,300 左右。止盈看個人。 築底的節奏還是慢慢來。有浮盈的不要因為小賺就一口氣加滿，還沒進場的也不用追，2,500 本來就是補倉的位置，等它來。假日漲的量不大，不要被一根綠 K 帶著跑。止損設了就照做，不要上頭。 籌碼面上，OKX 以太幣永續的資金費率大約 0.0057%，比下午稍微高一點，還是溫和；未平倉量大約 60.5 萬顆，比下午再多一點點，有人在慢慢加倉，但沒有過熱。OKX 的多空人數比大約 1.31，跟比特幣一樣，很平衡。清算地圖上，截至今天中午的 Coinglass 數據，往上突破 2,813 附近有大約 5.3 億美元的空單清算，往下跌破 2,561 附近有大約 5 億美元的多單清算，現價剛好夾在中間。恐懼貪婪指數今天中午大約 69The core of this content is not simply "bearish on ZEC," but rather waiting to see if ZEC experiences a momentum exhaustion at a key resistance level.
🟣 ZEC
The author focuses on $1,695–$1,700:
* If the price breaks through with volume and holds above $1,700 → it indicates bulls still have strength, and the author will reassess short positions.
* If multiple attempts to break $1,695–$1,700 fail → the author believes profit-taking and a quick pullback may occur.
* Because ZEC previously rose very quickly, the author worries that if the trend reverses, the decline could also be rapid.
There is an important distinction here: "multiple failures to break $1,700" does not necessarily mean a decline. It only indicates significant selling pressure at this level, requiring further observation of volume and price structure.
🟢 NEAR
The author mentions:
* Currently around $5.47
* Intraday increase of about 8.55%
* High around $5.495
* Key level to watch is $5.50
His logic is: NEAR has risen from about $1.5 to over $5, so although the trend is strong, he believes the risk of chasing the rally has increased.
🟠 WLD
The author is watching:
* Currently around $0.541
* Intraday high around $0.552
* Near previous highs
The author is concerned about a sudden market overheating followed by a significant large bearish candle.
🔵 ETH
This is the highest risk here. $BTC spot ETF has seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days up to September 25, totaling about 2.98 billion USD, with 2.39 billion USD this week setting a new single-week high since 2026. However, the inflow scale shrank from 999 million on the 21st to 134 million on the 25th, dropping by over 80% in four days.
On the price side, $BTC fell from 87,000 to around 84,000. The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.23%, the highest since 2007. The ETF inflow shrinkage basically synchronizes with the rise in Treasury yields; the higher the risk-free return, the more hesitant institutions become to buy.
But one detail is worth pondering: the main outflow of funds is from exchanges. From the 22nd to the 24th, over 2.5 billion USD worth of $BTC was transferred out from platforms like Binance and Coinbase, while ETFs continued to attract capital. CryptoQuant analysts say this looks more like holders moving coins from exchanges to cold wallets, which actually reduces short-term selling pressure.
The current contradiction is: ETF inflows continue but with decreasing strength, long-term interest rates are suppressing valuations, and exchange inventories are moving out. At the 84,000 level, selling pressure is indeed easing, but buying power is not strong enough to push prices up against the 5% Treasury yield. This divergence won't last forever; either interest rates ease and ETFs accelerate inflows, or buying power exhausts and prices correct downward.
To be honest, my short position is still stuck. The current market looks like it’s grinding, but I really don’t know if it will grind up or down. It’s frustrating. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 Boss Shi cleared all short positions with one click, and many friends fell silent instantly.
The silence is not because someone admitted defeat, but because no one dared to respond. The same action can be interpreted in two ways: he might be preparing to go long, or simply doesn't want to be squeezed anymore.
So I only look at the price reaction after the action, not the action itself.
Before two hard conditions are met, any "bullish quick rebound" is premature celebration:
First, the weekly chart must hold above the 50-week moving average; second, the price must hold the 78,000–82,000 major holder cost zone. If the second is broken, the cost zone immediately becomes a trapped zone.
The key levels are set here:
$BTC support at 85,000 / 82,000–82,500, resistance at 86,000–86,600 / 88,000
$ETH support at 2,700 / 2,630–2,660, resistance at 2,750–2,800 / 3,000
$SOL support at 115–116 / 110–113, resistance at 120 / 123–126
My rule is to only buy at support levels and never act before resistance levels. Now all three coins are stuck in the middle zone, looking lively but actually with no good positions. If my hands itch, I just tie them up.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 WLD's bullish candle today is different from the one on 09-18.
On 09-18, it rose from 0.376 to 0.447, then oscillated between 0.42-0.46 for four days without follow-through.
This time: from 09-22, it consolidated with low volume between 0.44-0.46 for four consecutive days; on 09-26 at 16:00, the 4H volume surged from 60M to 234M, a 4x increase, with price rising from 0.485 to 0.519, intraday peak +14%, current price 0.517.
The key is not the gain, but the volume position. The previous 8-day high of 0.477 was held down at 18:00 on 09-26 and did not fall back. The difference between a real breakout and a fake breakout lies here. $WLD
For market discussion only, not investment advice. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Global bond yields collectively hit multi-year highs this week, with Japan's 10-year government bond surging to 3.08%, the highest since 1996 — while the Bank of Japan just raised rates to 1.25% this month.
Yields continue to soar after the rate hike, indicating the market is doing what the central bank dared not do. Bond market pricing has never been about today, but rather "how much more tightening is coming." The 10-year yield far exceeds the policy rate, meaning investors are saying: your rate hikes are far from enough.
This is the most critical variable for risk assets. The risk-free rate anchors global valuations; when the anchor is raised, long-duration assets like stocks and crypto must be repriced lower. Japanese bonds are especially crucial — they form the foundation of global carry trades. When yen rates rise, funds that have borrowed yen to invest worldwide over the past decade must consider repaying.
Liquidity withdrawal always sounds the first alarm in the bond market.Many people equate "big gains" directly with "can't chase," resulting in missing the main rally phase of strong coins; others treat "big gains" as "still can chase," ending up buying at the emotional peak. The difference lies not in the magnitude of the rise, but in relative strength and structural position.
Looking horizontally within the same sector, $WLD 24h +18.37%, trading volume 86.8M, is clearly stronger than $JTO's +9.21% (trading volume only 6.8M) and $ENA's -2.84%. Among the three, only WLD simultaneously meets: MA5=0.551 crossing above and holding above MA20=0.532955, MACD histogram +0.002506 maintaining bullish momentum, RSI=77.1 although entering overbought territory, no bearish divergence detected; ENA has tangled moving averages and MACD turning bearish, JTO has a bullish structure but insufficient volume. Funding rate +0.0100% is higher than the other two, indicating concentrated bullish sentiment but not yet at an extreme short squeeze level; Fear and Greed Index at 70, in the greed zone, favor following the trend rather than counter-trend top fishing.
The direction is bullish, with a pullback near the upper Bollinger Band at 0.560 being a better entry reference, which is also close to MA5 support. Entry range is 0.558–0.568. Take profit 1 target is 0.598, corresponding to the previous high extension and the mid-range target of a 16.57% amplitude over 30 K-bars; Take profit 2 target is 0.625, corresponding to the expanded upper amplitude boundary.Still stubbornly shorting $ZEC? Take a good look at this chart first, don’t just feed fuel to the pumpers for nothing!
The daily chart shows a bulldozer-like rally, not even giving a decent deep pullback once, clearly not letting the shorts off the hook. The 4-hour chart keeps making higher highs and higher lows; this is not weakness, it’s literally stepping on the shorts’ corpses to push higher. Do you still dare to keep shorting? The pumpers are just waiting for your margin to fuel the rocket.
I’m holding shorts myself, and if I can’t get out next week, I’m ready to cut losses and exit. Don’t be stubborn, don’t fantasize, don’t fight the trend against the tide. Block those who blindly shout short, and better block your own overconfident self too.
In this kind of market, the more the shorts resist, the fiercer the rally. Always thinking you see through the market, but after entering, all that’s left is regret. Don’t be like me, only admitting you were wrong after liquidation.
Note: This is just a market insight, not any trading advice.The US military escorting oil tankers is something newcomers simply can't grasp.
Wright said it himself: 13 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day.
When I first entered the crypto space, I thought just watching the candlestick charts was enough to understand price movements.
Now the real question is: whether oil can pass through the strait depends on the warships.
What does this have to do with $BTC? At first, I didn’t get it either.
The data looks like this: 13 million barrels a day, accounting for the majority of global seaborne oil transport.
When oil prices shake, inflation rises, and interest rate cuts have to be postponed.
When rate cuts are delayed, the fresh liquidity for $BTC dries up.
I held long positions but got caught out by this kind of news.
Keep an eye on the 13 million figure; if it drops one day, that’s the real signal.
Wall Street dogs are only capable of this much.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普拒绝伊朗7天方案，霍尔木兹重开受阻 $BTC The crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has doubled in less than a month, returning to about 13 million barrels per day, close to the peak in July — the reason being that the US military has started escorting oil tankers during the day.
Behind the numbers is a reset of risk pricing. The strait is the most vulnerable choke point for global fossil energy; if it encounters problems, oil prices rise first, inflation expectations follow, and the central bank's room for rate cuts is squeezed. Now that the escort has restored the flow, it temporarily suppresses the risk hanging over this tail.
But the word "temporarily" is crucial. The flow can double, but it can also be halved again, depending on how long the escort lasts — and Trump has just rejected Iran's conditions, so the game is far from over.
Therefore, oil price volatility is very likely to remain high going forward. For the market, geopolitics is not a topic that can be turned off; it is just temporarily quiet.Master, I've been holding this short position for several days now.
Can I really achieve success like this?
Would it be good to have a flood of selling pressure tonight?
The $ETH short at 2640 is still open, now topping around 2715, and it's indeed starting to feel uncomfortable again.
The 1-hour MA5, MA10, and MA20 are turning upward again, indicating short-term strength, but the 2715–2720 range hasn't truly opened up space yet.
If it holds here, I'll continue to wait for 2680.
If 2680 breaks, then look down to 2650–2640; if it stabilizes above 2720, I'll keep managing risk on this short.
$SNDK is currently around 1780, after peaking at 1908 earlier, it has been consolidating sideways.
The short moving averages are all clustered near 1770; until it can reclaim 1800–1830, I won't be too optimistic about the rebound.
$W is actually very strong today, up over 20%, reaching a high of 0.01587.
Small coins are still accelerating, market sentiment hasn't truly cooled off, so I'm more willing to wait for direction confirmation on this ETH short rather than rushing to judge.
I've been holding this position for several days; next, I'll focus on 2720 and 2680. I'm already numb now, so I'll rest well and watch how tomorrow's trend unfolds.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 NEAR's order book depth is clear—a few million dollars in short positions can drive the price through, but once you short squeeze out, closing out is essentially buying and creates a self-reinforcing upward spiral. Taking large amounts of money to bare-short an altcoin is no different from betting your life. $BTC $ETH $ZEC A more reasonable explanation is that they have already taken large amounts of NEAR and ZEC on the spot side, and short positions are just used to hedge risk. This is exactly the same logic as Garrett Jin's trading logic. He holds 202,000 ZEC spot coins at a cost of $437, and while short ZEC, he lost 36.13 million before closing the position, but the spot unrealized profit exceeds 240 million. The losses from short positions are only a small portion of the spot profits being taken back. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升, financing pressure intensifies. #财报观察员: As Micron's earnings report approaches, AI storage demand becomes the focus $AKE The most interesting thing now is not that it has dropped 80%, but that even after such a drop, some people still think it's time to bottom-fish.
Many long traders think: "It has fallen from 0.16 to 0.033, entering now means picking up cheap chips."
But I am doing the opposite; I have already gone short.
Last week, AKE was still a hot coin, flooding social media, rising several times in just a few days, reaching a high of $0.16, with the last surge even hitting a 183% amplitude.
Then it turned around directly, falling for 7 consecutive days, now down to around $0.033, a retracement of over 80% from the high.
Even more interestingly, the long-short data shows a clear divergence:
OKX retail long-short ratio is 2.41, Binance retail long-short ratio is 1.2878, retail investors are clearly biased long.
But the large holders’ long-short ratio has dropped to 0.7692.
Retail investors think it has fallen too much and should rise, but large holders are clearly biased short.
After the first round of rally for this altcoin ends, it’s not easy to push it up again in the short term, so I choose to go against the crowd and short.
Of course, AKE is very volatile, and a sudden surge is not impossible, so short positions should not be heavily leveraged blindly.
Currently focusing on $0.03–$0.028.
Brothers, has anyone already gone short?
Let’s gather in the comments to see if more are bottom-fishing or shorting this time!
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 Boss Ten's one-click liquidation, bull and bear debate in the group chat
Suddenly muted, not because he won, but because everyone is afraid of copying the wrong homework
I don't follow orders, I read expectations, the big boss closing shorts might switch to longs
Or maybe just doesn't want to be squeezed again, action is action, the answer? That's another story
Two signals: weekly chart above the 50-week moving average
Price stabilizes in the 78000-82000 large holder cost zone
Sounds tough, but don't shout "bullish rebound speed" just yet, shouting too early can lead to social death.
Key levels to copy:
BTC support at 85000, 82000-82500; resistance at 86000-86600, 88000.
ETH support at 2700, 2630-2660; resistance at 2750-2800, 3000.
SOL support at 115-116, 110-113; resistance at 120, 123-126.
I only buy at support, don't chase before resistance. Currently stuck in the middle
It's lively, but not a good time to act, itchy hands, tie them up.
A bear market isn't ended by one liquidation, it's confirmed by repeated pullbacks. Boss Ten runs fast, can you catch him accurately?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC spot ETF has seen nearly $3 billion net inflow over 7 consecutive days $BTC Overall movement this week followed this rhythm: initial surge — deep pullback — bottom consolidation — then recovery and rise
At the start of the week, the upward momentum continued, reaching a high near 87,000, attracting a large amount of long-buying capital;
then there was a rapid drop with a downward wick, wiping out short-term long positions with stop losses, bottoming around 82,800;
From the 24th to 26th, it entered a range-bound consolidation, oscillating repeatedly between 83,800 and 84,800, gradually wearing down retail traders' patience, many capitulated at the lows;
In the latter half of the week, the lows began to rise gradually, the upper boundary of the range was slowly broken, reclaiming 84,600, with previous resistance turning into support.
Recently, positive rumors/news such as Lightning Network payment integration and continued institutional interest in Bitcoin as a digital reserve asset have provided some market sentiment support. The real driver of this recovery is the gradual exhaustion of selling pressure within the consolidation range.
From the 1-hour to 4-hour structure perspective:
The pullback did not create a sustained lower low, indicating a shakeout during an uptrend rather than a top reversal; moving averages, after converging downward, have turned upward again, with higher lows and higher highs, restoring the bullish structure.
Key price levels to watch:
Strong support: 84,500–84,600, this is the converted support after this week's breakout; as long as this holds, the current upward logic remains unchanged
Strong resistance: 85,600; if volume increases and it holds above this level, there is a chance to retest the previous high near 87,000 Sideways trading is more exhausting than a waterfall drop.
ETH has once again taught the shorts a lesson.
Yesterday it surged then pulled back. I thought it would replicate the deep drop from the day before, but it didn’t crash. Instead, it seemed nailed near my short entry cost line. The candlesticks moved centimeter by centimeter, with volatility slower than a snail. Traders watching the chart were about to go crazy, but accounts remained unchanged. It felt like the market only favored the bulls, while liquidations always targeted the shorts first.
What’s more frustrating is the rhythm: when I thought it couldn’t rise anymore, it pulled up; when I finally couldn’t resist chasing longs, it immediately cooled off, retraced to shake me out, then continued upward. Every time it felt like I was being precisely targeted.
But thinking calmly, the market never targets anyone. It just follows its own path. I mistook “should fall” for “will definitely fall,” mistook sideways trading for accumulation, and impatience for opportunity.
ETH is still ETH; what’s frustrating are the positions and expectations. When you don’t understand, trade less; when you want to chase, wait for confirmation first; when you’re wrong, accept the stop loss. The market owes no one a bite of meat, and the voice of trading is not complaints but remembering this pain so you don’t get fooled by the same rhythm a second time.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 My crypto trading partner is gone, and this hurts ten thousand times more than a breakup
When I heard the news of your departure, I stared at the K-line chart in a daze for a long time. Losing my crypto trading partner hurts as much as going through a deeply unforgettable love.
Thinking back to last year, we traded in and out of BTC together. When we made profits, we stayed up late on voice chat, drinking cheap beer and bragging about buying cars and houses; when we lost, we encouraged each other, saying "As long as we don't leave the table, there's always a chance to turn things around." During those nights of wild price swings, we were each other's strongest psychological support.
Now, BTC is still fluctuating around 84,000, but the person in my chat list who could always say "bull market is coming back fast" will never light up again. No one shouts "buy the dip" when it crashes, no one stays with me to endure the insults when holding positions.
Brother, there’s no liquidation or major manipulation over there, just rest well. This has made me fully realize: contracts can be liquidated, but life cannot be restarted. To all friends in the crypto circle, cherish your health and those around you. No matter how big the market is, it’s no bigger than life and death.
Farewell, my partner. May there be hundredfold coins in heaven too. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 A long sideways movement must eventually fall.
I really got badly trapped by these four words!!!
$SNDK is already at 1774. I have been holding a short position from 1538 all the way until now. Last night when it dropped to 1743, I thought I finally had a chance to break even, but today it was directly pulled back to 1774. This market seems to be staring at my margin without letting go.
$KMNO is even more extreme. It surged 18% in one day, rushing from around 0.02 all the way to 0.05. The daily candlestick is a big bullish candle drawn straight up, hardly giving shorts any breathing room. With this kind of movement, going short is like hitting a hard ceiling, and my short position stubbornly remains.
Looking at $ZEC, around 1535. The short position opened at 822, it surged up to 1680 at the highest point midway. Although it has fallen back quite a bit now, it’s still far from the cost price. This is not a drop at all; it’s more like giving me a little hope, then pushing me back into the water.
Three short positions, three mountains. All are stubbornly holding against the trend.
I used to think that after a long sideways period, a drop was inevitable. Looking back now, the so-called “bulls are out of strength” and “spring compressed to the limit” were all just my own script.
But it wasn’t a spring, it was a launch pad.
Now all three positions in my account are floating losses, just looking at them gives me a headache. Closing them is really hard to bear. Holding on is scary too, fearing another round of market moves.
In the end, this situation is because I underestimated the risk. The market won’t follow the script, and holding positions won’t automatically turn into a win. Many people's portfolio lists include a line that says, "$SOL will be sold at such and such a price." Once the target price is set, they feel at ease, as if they've installed a brake on this market phase. But reality is often more absurd than the script. The Solana ecosystem has gone through the aftermath of FTX, network outage doubts, and now an ecological boom over the past few years. The price is no longer something that can be confined to a single number. Using old information to cap the future is essentially applying static thinking to a dynamic market.
When $SOL actually hits that preset price, the information you have is already vastly different. If the market experiences volatility, you might be lucky to wait for a pullback, but you could end up missing liquidity; if hot money floods into the ecosystem, you greedily move your target upward and end up on a roller coaster. This kind of "fixed number" makes traders focus only on the numbers, while the market becomes just a backdrop, and actions easily become distorted.
Instead of setting a fixed price, it's better to set conditions. Observe real on-chain signals: whether TVL continues to flow in, whether the meme sector's heat is cooling off, and how network stability is. When people around you who don't usually touch crypto start asking "Can SOL still be bought?" or when volume accelerates with divergence, that's the time to reassess. From the beginning of the year until now, many people's target prices have been easily broken through and then recovered. The numbers no longer matter; trends and signals are the core. The market never stops for anyone's obsession; going with the flow is the cure.What stablecoin regulation truly changes may be the list of buyers of U.S. short-term Treasury bills.
The new rules require stablecoins to be fully backed by highly liquid assets such as short-term Treasuries. The larger the issuance scale, the more the issuer needs to continuously purchase short-term debt. In the future, for every additional dollar a user deposits in stablecoins, there may be roughly one more dollar of Treasury demand behind it. Payment products, crypto markets, and government financing are thus connected through the same pipeline.
This matter is somewhat subtle. Stablecoins help merchants reduce cross-border settlement costs, but they may also draw funds away from bank deposits; issuers earn interest on reserves, while users typically only receive a digital dollar that can circulate. After the rules are implemented, the market will be safer, but disputes over interest ownership will certainly intensify. If stablecoins become the foundation of global payments, the biggest business may not be in fees but in that ever-growing pool of reserve assets.
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地 The Big Three of Meme: $DOGE, $PEPE, $TRUMP — Which Will Double First?
In the Meme sector, which of these three can double first?
I'm betting on Trump, not sure if he'll deliver!
DOGE 0.097. Huge market cap, doubling requires massive capital inflow, unless Musk pulls a big move, it will be the slowest.
PEPE 0.000004394. Best elasticity! After dipping to 0.000004218, it rebounded the strongest, RSI6 reached 62.9, firmly above MA5/10, approaching MA20. High capital preference; if the market stabilizes, it’s the easiest to skyrocket.
TRUMP 2.119. Narrative-driven, extremely volatile. Just dipped to 2.068 then barely held above MA20. Influenced by news, it has explosive potential but chasing highs carries huge risk.
Conclusion: In terms of potential to double early, PEPE > TRUMP > DOGE. PEPE has the strongest technical recovery and moderate market cap, best elasticity; TRUMP has high odds but high risk; DOGE suits steady defense. Manage your position size and take profits in batches!
$DOGE $PEPE $TRUMPThe most noteworthy aspect of BTC right now is not whether it will rise or fall, but rather the "high-level consolidation and accumulation."
This round of the market quickly rebounded from around $75,000 to about $87,000, completing a very clear price correction. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF absorbed approximately $2.39 billion in funds during the week of September 21 to 25, indicating a clear recovery in institutional capital demand.
On the other hand, daily ETF inflows gradually declined from about $999 million on September 21 to around $134 million on September 25. BTC did not break through $87,000 directly despite the massive capital inflow but instead consolidated repeatedly around $84,000.
Therefore, the current market shows a very typical state:
Funds are coming in, but the price is not continuing to surge rapidly.
This indicates the market is digesting the supply above.
So, if I had to choose one trend, my definition of BTC at present is only one:
High-level consolidation and accumulation.
What will truly determine the direction going forward is whether the $87,000–$87,500 range can be effectively broken through, and whether the $81,000–$82,000 range can continue to serve as a support area below.
Until these two key zones are effectively broken or breached, BTC deserves more attention on the changes in capital and holdings during the consolidation process, rather than being driven by the sentiment of one or two short-term candlesticks.Boss Ten's one-click liquidation, bull and bear debate in the group
Suddenly muted, not because he won, but everyone is afraid of copying the wrong homework
I don't follow orders, I read expectations, the big boss closes shorts, might switch to longs
Or maybe just doesn't want to be squeezed again, action is action, answer? That's another story
Two signals: weekly chart above the 50-week moving average
Price stabilizes in the 78000-82000 big player cost zone
Sounds tough, but don't shout "bullish rebound speed" yet, shouting too early can lead to social death.
Copy the levels:
BTC support at 85000, 82000-82500, resistance at 86000-86600, 88000.
ETH support at 2700, 2630-2660, resistance at 2750-2800, 3000.
SOL support at 115-116, 110-113, resistance at 120, 123-126.
I only buy at support, don't chase before resistance. Now stuck in the middle
Lively, but not easy to act, itchy hands, tie them up.
A bear market isn't ended by one liquidation, it's confirmed by repeated pullbacks, Boss Ten runs fast, can you catch it accurately?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC spot ETF net inflow nearly $3 billion for 7 consecutive days #US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies #Earnings watcher: Micron earnings approaching, AI storage demand in focusFirst, a cold splash of water: that feeling of "something is destined" you have is called FOMO, not a signal.
ETH breaking through 2700 is correct, but there is a supply barrier of over 10 million ETH in the 2700-2800 range, which is a tough bone for whales to chew. The fear and greed index has reached 70, in the greed zone.
The simultaneous rise of BTC and ETH is indeed a market resonance recovery signal, and ETF funds are continuously flowing in. But ETH's current RSI short-term momentum is weakening, long positions are crowded (72.7% of retail investors are long), chasing in is easy to catch the bag.
As for ZEC—your small capital can't hold it, that sentence is the answer itself. This asset surged 2800% in half a year, but analysts warn it may retrace to $200; whales hold 200,000 coins and could dump anytime. The futures-to-spot ratio is 9:1, whales' short positions just got liquidated for 36.13 million, rushing in now is just fueling the next round of liquidations.
What you should do today is not pick coins, but turn off your trading software and wait for BTC to stabilize above 85000 before talking. If you're itchy, start with 10% position to practice, don't go All in. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 Don't rush to bottom-fish! The most dangerous signal for BTC is not a crash, but "no one is playing anymore."
After BTC's crash, it entered an extreme low volume phase: 24h contract turnover dropped 53.96%, spot dropped 58.10%, BTC contract volume dropped 66.77%. Liquidity is exhausted, so a small amount of funds can cause sharp spikes up and down, making chasing orders prone to losses on both ends.
Large holders' long-short ratio is 1.9344, still heavily biased long but slightly down from yesterday's 1.95; retail investors at 1.27-1.28 also lean long. Crowded longs, sideways without rising easily leads to long liquidation.
Resistance above: 84860-85000. Support below: 83510, 82800.
Strategy: Do not chase in the middle, wait for volume to pick up and stabilize above 85000 before leaning long; if it breaks below 82800 and rebounds weakly, lean short. Use low leverage and wait for direction.
In a no-volume phase, staying alive is more important than making money.
This does not constitute investment advice. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 $SUI continues to take off🛫
As the leading new public chain, my advice has always been to hold long-term, and so far this strategy has no issues.
In the short term, focus on market hotspots; in the mid to long term, look at the project's fundamentals and the sustainability of the market trend.
Actually, to judge whether an altcoin is suitable for long-term holding, you don't need to analyze the fundamentals too deeply at first; start by observing the sustainability of its market trend.
Many altcoins in the market are on the top gainers list one day and the top losers list the next—purely pump-and-dump schemes by manipulative traders trying to take profits wherever possible, like ZKC, ZKP, TUT, SAGA.
Those truly suitable for mid to long-term holding are usually projects with real narratives, ecosystems, and sustained capital interest, such as blockchain infrastructure and new public chains.
Choosing wisely is really important when dealing with altcoins now.
If both the project team and the manipulators have abandoned the project, and you still foolishly hold long-term, then you're just wasting another cycle in vain. But then I looked at the positioning and thought: Wait… are you all secretly shorting too? On-chain and derivatives positioning can change quickly, so I’m not treating one long/short ratio as proof that the crowd is right or wrong. What I care about is what price does next. And $ZEC has been absolutely wild. It recently jumped from around $1,564 to $1,648 in just four hours, while short liquidations have repeatedly appeared during these upside bursts. That tells me one thing: 🔥 This market is sGreed Index 72, I analyzed 3 years of data: it's just an emotional thermometer
Today the Greed Index is 72, and some are already calling the top. I don't trust this "feeling," so I ran through the data.
How it was measured: Daily Fear and Greed Index data (alternative.me, publicly available) + OKX BTC spot daily data, from September 2023 to now, 1099 days. An index ≥70 counts as a "Greed Day," totaling 328 times. For each, I calculated BTC's price change over the following 7 days.
Results first: It's a 50/50 split, basically a coin toss.
- Greed Days (≥70): 328 times, 7-day win rate 50.3%, median +0.01% — basically no gain
- Extreme Greed (≥75): 120 times, win rate 51.7%, median +0.09%
- Buying any random day and holding 7 days (baseline): win rate 54.8%, median +0.51% — Greed Days underperform baseline
- Extreme Fear (≤25): 211 times, win rate 49.8%, median -0.09% — bottom fishing didn’t pay off
In plain terms: An index of 72 tells you "everyone is excited now," not "it will drop tomorrow." Using it as a signal to top out or bottom fish is a coin toss based on 3 years of testing. Emotional indicators measure the present, not the future.
Three honest points: ① The index is a composite of emotions and is inherently lagging; ② The sample covers this 3-year bull and bear cycle, conclusions may change with different periods; ③ Fees and slippage were not accounted for.
If you want to see what else I analyzed, comment below.
#BTC