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Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the downside, Nasdaq hit a new high, and the market has fully priced in "no rate hike in October."
But nonfarm payrolls measure employment. The real referee for inflation hasn't blown the whistle yet: September CPI will be released on October 14.
August: headline 3.4%, core 2.4%, gasoline up 3.9%, accounting for more than 30% of the monthly increase.
September hedge: gasoline retail prices fell about 9.3%, suppressing the headline; housing rose 0.3% in August, whether it will decline is key.
Expectation gap: the market is betting on "cooling inflation," institutional consensus for September headline is 3.7% (above August), Cleveland Fed nowcast annualized at 3.57%.
Key figure: core CPI month-over-month. 0.2% or below justifies easing long-term 5.28%; above 0.3% requires recalculating the "no rate hike" pricing. The real referee will be before the October 28 meeting.#The US-Iran situation remains tense, G7 will release up to 100 million barrels of reserves. G7 has taken action.
In the next 4 months, up to 100 million barrels of crude oil + refined oil reserves, coordinated by the IEA, with diesel released first in the first 20 days.
Oil prices immediately dropped about 5%, to $88.50 per barrel.
What does this mean for the crypto world?
Short term, it's positive.
When oil prices ease, inflation expectations ease accordingly.
Market pressure on interest rate hikes lessens, risk appetite warms up.
BTC gets a breather around $87,000, and funds start refocusing on risk assets.
Medium term, don’t celebrate too early.
Energy costs have dropped, but tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are still being attacked.
The conflict isn’t over, oil prices could surge again at any time.
Once energy costs push inflation back up and interest rate expectations tighten, the crypto market will still be under pressure.
In short: G7 is giving a breath, not a lifeline.
Oil prices fell, the crypto world breathes easier; but the strait remains closed, so that breath still has to be held. $DOGE Publicly listed companies are adjusting their portfolios, moving chips into HYPE
HYPE has received another vote of confidence from a publicly listed company. On September 30, Lion Group, listed on Nasdaq, announced a portfolio adjustment: they cleared part of their other crypto assets to acquire about 38,102 HYPE tokens, bringing their holdings to around 232,900 HYPE, with a market value of approximately $20.1 million. The company also emphasized: they have never sold a single token previously purchased. This move is not a short-term grab-and-run; it’s a concentration of treasury assets into HYPE. They are not the only ones doing this: Hyperliquid Strategies holds about 29.4 million HYPE tokens, making it the largest holder in the US stock market; Hyperion DeFi is also active, staking tokens and using options as collateral to generate income from their assets. What was once just a code on exchanges in the eyes of institutions, $HYPE has now become a line item on balance sheets. Of course, concentrated positions are a double-edged sword; how long institutions’ appetite lasts depends on whether capital inflows or token unlocks prevail. Bitcoin surged to $85,600 on Wednesday after PCE inflation data came in below expectations, then quickly gave back the gains. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.29%, and according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has dropped from 70% to below 50%. First, let's look at the ETF capital flow. Grayscale launched the Zcash ETF with the ticker ZCSH on August 25, attracting $233 million in net inflows by mid-September. Yesterday, the fund recorded a net outflow of $30.25 million, bringing cumulative net inflows down to nearly $268 million. That morning, its 3-for-1 stock split also officially took effect $BTC $ETH #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Blast announced its shutdown, citing "maintenance costs exceeding the revenue generated by the L2" — so how much does it actually cost to maintain an L2?
On the revenue side: Blast currently earns about $110 per day, only $3,300 per month;
On the cost side: even excluding labor, the fixed costs of an L2 include infrastructure such as nodes, sequencers, cross-chain bridges, audits, and ongoing R&D.
What’s shocking is that the absolute revenue is only "$110 per day."
$3,300 per month, when placed against a project that once locked $2 billion and turned "staking airdrops" into a nationwide FOMO phenomenon — this contrast itself is a mirror of the entire L2 sector:
TVL (user locked funds) and the actual revenue earned by the project differ by more than three orders of magnitude.
The more glamorous a project looks, the more likely it is just "hype built on incentives" — the money belongs to the users, the hype is fueled by points, and only the small portion from fee sharing truly belongs to the project.
It leaves the industry with one lesson: "Operating a blockchain" and "running a business" are two different things.
As long as costs are fixed (nodes, bridges, audits) and revenue fluctuates with market conditions (fees), when the market cools down, the books inevitably won’t balance.10.3 BTC Layout Strategy
After BTC surged to a high of *87220 yesterday, it experienced consecutive large bearish candles and pulled back, indicating a short-term correction after the rally. The current price is 84664, in a low-level consolidation and recovery phase following the decline. Previously, after BTC hit a new high at 87395, it was noted that strong support below is around 82400; as long as this level holds, buying on dips is advisable. Currently, there is a clear long lower shadow below, indicating buying support near 84000.
1. Entry conditions: Price retraces to the 84000–84200 range, then shows a stop-fall signal (long lower shadow, small bullish candle stabilization, MACD bullish divergence) before entering long.
2. Stop loss: Cut losses immediately if price breaks below 83800 (breaking the support low of this correction invalidates the bullish logic).
3. Take profit in two stages:
- First take profit: around 85700 (previous platform resistance)
- Second take profit: 86500–87000 (previous high resistance zone, exit all positions) $BTC Seeing the $HYPE cross-chain news, don't mistake the news date for the initial launch date.
Checked at 11:44 on October 3, 2026, Beijing time: TradingView's report is dated October 2, stating that HYPE entered Solana, Base, and Unichain via Wormhole NTT. However, the Wormhole official website's page on the same topic is dated September 3, 2025, and the current text also mentions these three chains.
The two sources have different dates, and current evidence is insufficient to confirm what new features were added yesterday.
If the project has other new deployments, expanded support scope, or new liquidity announcements, then it is worth evaluating the new impact; if it just restates existing capabilities, the new information is limited.
The risk is: mistaking old features for new benefits may overestimate new demand. However, the official website text may also be updated, and the release date alone cannot reconstruct the launch process.
Looking at the hot topic, first verify what exactly was added this time.
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #信息核实Idea: "Trading as casino management, not as a gambler" The biggest secret most beginners don't know is that successful traders don't think like "gamblers" predicting the future, but think like "casino makers." How does a gambler think? They enter a trade as if saying: "I'm 100% sure this coin or stock will rise now!" And if they lose, they get shocked and try to take revenge. How does the casino (or professional) think? The casino doesn't know, nor care, who will win the next roulette game. They know there are "mathematical probabilities" on their side in the long run. They lose some roundsNon-farm payrolls just came out cold, and the new coin PONS plunged sharply with a spike. This volatility is really scary.
Checked the market at 11:55 AM.
PONS's spike directly hit 0.4177, now at 0.435.
Down 15% in 24 hours.
First, let's talk about PONS's fundamentals now.
Founder Ozzy just announced entering V3 mode, upgrading the on-chain fee model.
Previously, Bonk Guy said its annualized revenue is about $156.8 million, compared to PUMP, its market cap is only 40%, possibly seriously undervalued.
Fundamentals look good, but the market fell first as a sign of respect.
Why such a sharp drop?
On one hand, non-farm payrolls just came out cold, Bitcoin surged then fell back, altcoin sentiment overall weak.
On the other hand, Iran's military action in the Strait of Hormuz suddenly escalated, geopolitical risk directly crushed the newly emerging risk appetite.
Plus, a whale opened a short position of 11.7 million PONS near 0.63, with floating profits over a million, taking advantage of the unstable market to dump.
My judgment:
The key is whether the lower spike low at 0.4177 can hold.
Resistance above is at 0.50, then moving averages will suppress further upward movement.
If the spike quickly recovers, it means funds are stepping in.
If it continues to drift down, it will need more grinding.
Don't chase shorts or rush to buy, wait for stabilization signals.
Do you have PONS in your hands?
Did you bottom-fish or get buried? Raise your hand in the comments 👇
$PONS
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% The load-bearing walls are almost cracking, yet a bunch of retail investors wearing plastic safety helmets are still daydreaming about getting rich quick.
The top contractors in the market, wielding 10x leverage like operating heavy cranes, move steadily and then turn around to take luxury cars off the construction site accounts. Meanwhile, retail investors blindly adding floors get buried without a trace in multi-million-dollar collapse accidents; others' dividends are all dug out from the rubble of shoddy construction.
Tapping the trowel on the $XRP current chart, the price hovers at 1.49. The lower Bollinger Band is stuck around 1.45, like a foundation pile hitting hard soil; the 1-hour chart shows oversold signals, indicating that this wave of shoddy selling pressure has hit solid support.
Rather than trusting the 3D renderings hyped by the project team, I only trust the concrete grade beneath my feet. As long as the foundation hasn't fully settled, the scaffolding can be built up another floor.
- Target: $XRP 🟢
- Entry: 1.4700 - 1.4950
- TP1: 1.5530
- TP2: 1.5850
- SL: 1.4350
Once the rebar breaks, the whole building collapses in an instant, and no one will come to rescue you from the ruins.🏗️
#CoinMoveAlertThe G7 coordinates with the IEA to release up to 100 million barrels of crude oil and refined products over the next four months, prioritizing diesel acceleration in the first 20 days. This news pushed oil prices higher and then fell (WTI fell as much as 5%, closing at a deep V), which indirectly boosted ETH—the price drop → cooling inflation expectations→ pressure on US Treasury yields→ easing risk asset valuation pressure. However, the core contradiction in market trading remains unchanged: Hormuz has not resumed navigation, diesel crack spreads have fallen but remain high, and geopolitical risk premiums have only been reduced rather than eliminated. ETH market also confirmed: current price ~2,680, daily level still fluctuating between 2,620–2,825. G7 reserves have provided macro tailwinds but have not yet converted into breakout momentum. The supply wall above 2,775–2,825 remains a key resistance; below 2,620 is the last line of support for bulls. Five key signals to watch for next: (1) Can Brent hold below 100? (2) Diesel cracking spread trends; (3) Recovery of Hormuz navigation status; (4) Daily flow of ETH spot ETFs; (5) Federal Reserve decision on 10/28. The IEA assessment report will be released around 10/22, which may trigger a second round of market movement. Conclusion: Short-term bullish but limited range, mainly range-bound fluctuations. If oil prices surge again (geopolitical upgrade), all bullish predictions will immediately failETH midday reference points:
Short-term (1 to 2 days): Treat as range-bound oscillation. Buy on pullback to 2650-2660, stop loss at 2640, target 2700. Short on rebound resistance at 2700-2710, stop loss at 2725, target 2660.
Mid-term (1 to 2 weeks): Closely watch support at 2650, break below targets 2600. Only a volume-backed hold above 2720 can signal a mid-term reversal; otherwise, reduce positions on rallies.
Long-term (1 to 3 months): SEC approval of 3x leveraged ETFs is a long-term positive. Dollar-cost average spot purchases on dips between 2500 and 2600, ignoring short-term spikes.
For ETH, this wave dropped from 2778 to 2651, a large bearish candle shattered bulls' hopes. Current price 2681, on the 15-minute chart MA5 and MA10 twist around 2680, indicating short-term consolidation and repair. On the 4-hour chart, MA5 at 2692 and MA10 at 2700 tightly cap the price, MACD green bars below zero line have not yet shrunk, overall weak bias.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
$ZEC $BTC Regarding "$TRUMP" being "awesome," these two are not even in the same league right now—PEPE is still the top meme leader at the table, while TRUMP has dropped to a tiny fraction and is a politically fading coin continuously drained by its own team. The data makes it clear.
First, look at the scale. PEPE's current price is $0.00000418, with a market cap of $1.76 billion, ranking 59th on the platform; TRUMP's current price is $2.1, with a market cap under $600 million, ranking beyond 100. PEPE's scale is three times that of TRUMP. Also, PEPE has 420 trillion coins fully circulating with no unlocking risk; TRUMP's circulation rate is only 28%, meaning 70% of coins are still locked, posing potential selling pressure in the future.
Next, look at who is selling. TRUMP team's wallets have repeatedly been caught transferring large amounts on-chain in recent months—just in the past two weeks, over $70 million was transferred to BitGo, and previously, coins were moved piece by piece to exchanges. Senators have requested the SEC to investigate it for "rug pull," with nearly a million buyers collectively losing three to four billion dollars. From a high of $73.43 to now, it has dropped 97%, far beyond a knee-jerk cut. Its only catalyst is a dinner for the top 185 holders on November 22, but this event has been criticized as a "White House entry ticket," with much less appeal.
On the other hand, PEPE has a new story: Canary has revised PEPE's ETF application for the second time, and Bloomberg ETF analysts directly say this may signal the end of the crypto winter. Pure meme leader + full circulation + ETF expectations, the narrative is clearly much cleaner. If it dares to pull up to 0.1, let me see it rise
I still stubbornly don't believe in this
Just short
Just checked SAND
It rose 28% in one day
From 0.044 to 0.082
This trend is too wild
But I just don't believe it can keep rising
The short position is already in
Position not heavy
Enough room
Currently a slight floating loss
But I'm not panicking
Why dare to short
First
Up over 70% in one day
Severely overbought in the short term
Second
The high point at 0.08228
Rushed up but didn't hold steady
Started to fall back
Third
This kind of wild coin pump is just for dumping
Same pattern as ONE and SOON
Pump to attract momentum traders
Then dump to harvest
If it dares to pull up to 0.1
Let me see it rise
I still stubbornly don't believe in this
Just short
I'll run at 0.07
The wild coin routine
$SAND #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Rumor of NEAR theft of 3.8 million has been repaid, but the market only bounced 0.47%, I remain bullish
$NEAR was hit last night by a rumor: NEAR Intents stolen $3.8 million, with the rumor also claiming full repayment and investigation termination. The rumor can't be confirmed, the market votes with money: price moved from 4.659 to 4.681 (+0.47%) after the event, currently at 4.687. The negative news didn't shake the market, so I am directly bullish at this level.
First, the daily RSI at 62.4 is in a strong zone, the 24h -4.3% drop is a position washout, not a breakdown;
Second, open interest is down 3.6% compared to yesterday 16:00 snapshot, long-short account ratio is 1.416, leverage is not being liquidated;
Third, there are buyers above the event anchor at 4.659, volume ratio 0.924 shows reduced volume and stabilization.
Background is quiet too. Fear and greed index at 67 is still in greed zone, 7d -7.09% has pulled the position down.
Resistance above: 4.735
Support below: 3.5
Market script judges an attack phase, breadth 37/57 is indeed weak, so no chasing highs, only trading at key levels. Probable path: first test 4.735, only consider 4.805 if volume breaks above; reduce position if volume is low at 4.735.
Current price 4.687 is a direct entry, cut losses if it breaks below 3.5, if not broken, consider taking profit at 4.735. Like and follow, I'll alert you first when the market moves.
$NEAR $BTCBitcoin is back around $86K.
The interesting part isn't that BTC moved higher.
It's whether buyers can actually keep it there.
We've seen fast moves fail before.
So I'm watching what happens after the excitement fades.Woke up and ZEC had already taken off 🚀😂
ZEC is seriously showing some strength today.
But last night’s $SAND trade? Absolute trash. 💀
I was up around $200, but instead of getting greedy and chasing more, I closed it.
Ended up giving back about $30, but honestly, I’ll take that over turning a small loss into a big one.
Profit is profit, loss is tuition.
Today’s lesson: don’t chase, don’t hesitate to cut losses, and protect your capital. 📉💰
#DailyOrbit Challenge 450u-10000u Day 9
Current assets 650 USD, withdrawal 1300 USD, total assets 1950, profit 1500 USD
Yesterday's operations
1. Opened a long position on ZEC at 1389, suffered continuous losses and got stuck, eventually added to the position, successfully recovered losses and made a 50 USD profit. Closed all positions before the non-farm payroll release.
2. Took a short position on BTC around 87200. However, couldn't hold it and took profit around 86700.
Summary of yesterday's operations: still taking full losses and running on profits, the so-called "take small profits and endure big losses." This problem remains unsolved for me—how to follow the market trend and catch the big profits in the middle of the move?
Current operations
Opened long positions on ZEC and ETH before sleep. Upon waking, there was a floating loss of up to about 100 USD, then added one more lot, basically recovered the loss now, targeting about 200 USD profit $NFT $APE Damn it! The APE market is giving me a headache, stabbing back and forth around 0.1705, clearly the dog whales are clearing leverage.📉
Just now watching the volume, when it dropped to 0.168 someone stubbornly caught it, the capital support is too obvious, this position is most likely a fake drop.
Hunter directly placed a long order at 0.1705, stop loss at 0.162, target first at 0.19. This market is really something, dare to decide for yourselves.
If you want to secretly ambush, click the market card below, don’t wait until it rockets to ask me.🎯
Following orders is voluntary, profits and losses are your own responsibility. There are already quite a few L2/Rollup projects confirmed to have ceased operations, but the "ways of dying" vary greatly—voluntary shutdown/strategic pivot, unsustainable economic model, shutdown after attack, bankruptcy, team disappearance suspected of running away; these five types are completely different in nature.
Blast belongs to the second type, with the fundamental reason being "L2's operating costs > L2's generated revenue":
TVL dropped from 2 billion USD to 32 million.
The conclusion is quite painful: "TVL ≠ Revenue ≠ Business Model."
These three inequalities deserve to be unpacked one by one.
TVL is just "the money locked with you," which can leave at any time and is often temporarily attracted by incentives (points/airdrop expectations);
Revenue is "the money you can actually earn from that money," which for most L2s is just a small share of transaction fees;
And the business model is "whether this revenue can cover costs and remain positive in the long term."
The entire industry has assumed for years that "first build TVL, revenue will naturally follow," but Blast proves: when incentives stop and TVL evaporates, revenue simply cannot cover costs.
Why does Blast only earn 110 USD per day?
Because for an L2, the real expenses are nodes, sequencers, cross-chain bridges, security audits, and ongoing R&D—these are "fixed costs" that do not scale linearly with TVL size.
When the scale is not large enough, revenue cannot spread out these fixed costs.U.S. stock market rally, why isn't Bitcoin following the rise?
Today, global risk assets collectively warmed up: Nasdaq-related ETFs rose 1%, the fear index dropped nearly 7% in a single day, and emerging market currencies also hit intraday highs. But crypto seems like an outsider—Bitcoin closed lower, Ethereum dropped over 1%, and spot ETFs also turned negative.
The macroeconomic tailwind is strong, yet money is bypassing the crypto space. This indicates the current problem lies not in macro factors but internally: no new narratives, insufficient incremental funds, slowing ETF inflows, and muted on-chain activity.
Looking at the market, Bitcoin is repeatedly tugging above 84,000, Ethereum can't even hold 2,700, and the weak pattern remains unchanged. The market is waiting for its own catalyst, not just following the U.S. stock market's lead. Hot money is rapidly rotating among small coins like ZEC and SOL, and the divergence is already significant. $BTC $ETH $ZECRich spoke for the first time since May 22, dropping just four words: Decentralization, community explosion. The timing is perfect, and the official plan was released simultaneously: In the coming months, the DAO will transfer the remaining block production responsibilities to independent validators. These two events combined are the key to CORE's transition.
This is not just a slogan; it marks the watershed from a "project" to an "autonomous network." Over the past few years, CORE has completed the journey from zero to one: building the foundation, DAO running nodes, weathering turbulence, and now starting a new battle.
True decentralization is not about piling up nodes; it challenges three questions: Who produces blocks? Who controls the infrastructure? Who ensures security?
When the team steps back and reduces intervention, and the entire chain still runs stably on its own, it is no longer just a product of one entity but a community-owned network. The path is clear: DAO-driven shifts to market-driven. $BTC 【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜ETH October 3】
ETH at midday is not a one-way breakout but a high-level box consolidation with a bullish bias.
Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) original view: ETH remains stable but highly dependent on BTC; its ETH/USDT 12H chart shows a range of about 2635–2776. Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) original view: ETH/BTC has been trending upward since June; as long as BTC maintains a bull market structure, ETH will at least keep pace or even outperform. BigCheds (@BigCheds) original view: ETHBTC daily chart triangle is nearing its end. Josh Olszewicz (@CarpeNoctom) reminds: BTC and ETH commercial positions remain net short.
Editorial inference: ETH spot is around 2678, the main line to watch is one—hold 2635, first reclaim 2700 above, then test 2776; if it breaks below 2635 and fails to recover, look to 2546 support. BTC pullback or leverage stop-losses may amplify volatility, not a copy-trade recommendation.
Do you think ETH will break 2776 first or lose 2635 first?
#BTC #ETH #OKBActive Trading Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$NIGHT shows a buy bias in all three five-minute windows: 15-minute price +2.58%, active buying 66.3%, volume 1.8x. The buying advantage corresponds to the concurrent price increase, with current strength reflected in both volume and price.Those who understand sports cars know one thing: if you want to raise commissions, first see how many cars are still running on the road.
Last night's recruitment bill came out, honestly a bit disappointing.
July's new employment, after revision, was negative; August was also cut from 162,000 to 133,000, totaling 60,000 fewer people on the books over two months.
September was even more direct, with only 29,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%.
The market immediately changed its tune. A week ago, there was still about a 69% chance of another rate hike in October, but after the data came out, it dropped to around 28%. Some institutions bluntly said: with so little work, don't move in October.
In plain terms: there are fewer and fewer cars running in the fleet, so if the platform wants to raise commissions, it has to weigh its confidence. As for whether the market will accept it, we'll see.
I'm just recording some news, personal notes to share, not investment advice.
Do you think they will really hold steady in October this time? Let's chat.There is a harsh rule in the crypto world:
The most expensive chips are often sold to the most excited people.
The cheapest chips often come from the most panicked people.
Often when a few big bullish candles pull the price up,
trending searches appear, various groups start showing off their orders,
KOLs begin shouting that the bull market is back, and those who missed out finally can't sit still.
The higher it rises, the more people chase.
The higher it rises, the more people fear missing the ride.
At this time, the market is least lacking in buying power and liquidity.
And those who have already held a large amount of chips at low levels precisely have better conditions to cash out.
The reverse is also true.
After continuous big drops,
liquidations, stop losses, bad news, and panic all appear together.
Many people no longer consider valuation or logic,
only one thought remains:
Run first, talk later.
The more it falls, the more people cut losses; the more they cut losses, the more it falls.
Chips start to transfer from the hands of panicked people
to those who still have cash, patience, and dare to take risks.
So you will find:
Many times the market is not trading prices, but trading human nature. $SPCXB The most dangerous misconception right now is equating "strong trend" directly with "safe to keep chasing."
I first look at the position, not guessing the direction. Current price is 158.9, about 6.17% away from the 1-hour support at 149.09, and about 0.66% away from resistance at 159.95. Comparing distances on both sides gives a more realistic risk assessment than just focusing on a single rising or falling candlestick.
Both 1-hour and 4-hour charts are relatively strong, with RSI at 87 and 75 respectively. The strength hasn't disappeared, but the sentiment is already crowded; at this point, what's truly important is not guessing the peak, but seeing if the high-level support can quickly recover any pullback.
There are only two conditions that would make me change my judgment. My observation line is clear: only if it stands back above and holds 159.95 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 149.09, then attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 145.57. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 159.95 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
This is not hindsight justification: in the next round, I will continue to verify 159.95 and 149.09, recording when conditions are met and reviewing when invalidated.
Do you think this is normal overheating in a strong trend, or is the risk already greater than the remaining upside?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.$XAU gold has dropped from 4698.8 in mid-September to 4149.8 now, a nearly 12% decline.
The root cause is the Federal Reserve — the September meeting released a hawkish signal, saying there will likely be only one rate cut in 2026, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to a new high near 5.3%. Gold does not yield interest, so it is the first to be sold off in such times.
The same driver is behind the recent drops in $BTC and $ZEC, it’s not that gold itself has problems.Employment data was weaker than expected, but the market's first reaction was not to worry about the economy, rather a sigh of relief.
Poor data means less pressure for continued monetary tightening, so money is more willing to flow into risk assets. Tech stocks led the charge, with the Nasdaq hitting a new intraday all-time high, and the S&P and Dow rising for two consecutive days.
But on the other hand, it was not calm: U.S. Treasuries were sold off again, yields formed a V-shaped intraday move, crude oil plunged due to the G7's plan to release reserves, and gold and silver declined throughout the week.
The significance of this combination for $BTC is that its current rhythm is tightly linked to macro liquidity— as long as the market believes interest rates have peaked, capital is willing to allocate more to high-volatility assets.
Whether this asset can hold onto this wave of sentiment depends not on daily price swings but on two things: whether U.S. Treasury yields will push back up, and whether upcoming employment and inflation data will overturn the logic that "weak data is good news."
If yields continue to rise and funds flow back into bonds, risk asset sentiment will cool down first.
So right now, it feels more like expectations are driving the market rather than fundamentals truly improving. $BTC is currently in a very standard range-bound oscillation.
$82.8K: Support below
$87.4K: Resistance above
The current price is around $84.6K,
basically in the middle of the range.
So I have no desire to take action at this position.
Only a break above 87.4K counts as a real bullish shift,
and a drop below 82.8K counts as a structural weakening.
Before a breakout,
just continue to watch the oscillation.⛰️
This does not constitute investment or trading advice.Before asking Doubao about $SAND, I looked at the high funding fees and was thinking of going long, but after asking Doubao
Doubao's answer was that you can short, don't go long. What did Doubao say?
1. The 45% surge in 24 hours was entirely due to a single news from Korea's Upbit; the kimchi premium market rises and falls accordingly
2. RSI hit 97, extremely overbought, historically this level likely leads to a pullback
3. The current price 0.064 is just stuck below EMA200 (0.0641) and the old resistance 0.0638, unable to break through
I really believed Doubao's nonsense Short position number twenty-two on $RIVER
Stop loss at 1.32, take profit at 1
This coin is quite interesting. Many foreign friends were bullish on it before, cheering it from 8 all the way down to 1, constantly emphasizing its future ecological development. But this is a rug pull project, what future is there? I was also influenced by foreign friends before, going long from 6 down to 5, but eventually couldn’t hold and took a loss. So from now on, I will short this coin on rallies; it’s purely a zero coin, and it doesn’t follow the overall market, which is somewhat honest~ #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Market Snapshot: Continuous Inflows into ETFs Ended
A quick review of yesterday's key signals.
Price-wise, Bitcoin oscillated between 83,500 and 84,700, with a failed attempt to hold above 85,500; Ethereum hovered around 2,690-2,700. The total market capitalization is about 2.87 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index remains in the greed zone.
On the capital front, the US spot BTC ETF ended a 9-day streak of net inflows, with a single-day net outflow of approximately 149 million. Institutional buying momentum has clearly slowed, marking the most evident near-term capital signal.
Regarding events, some mainstream wallets have preemptively exited staking validators due to infrastructure security concerns (user funds are not directly at risk). Additionally, a cross-chain project with about a 3.8 million vulnerability has been fixed and has promised full compensation.
Mid-term sentiment is supported, but near-term remains pressured by elevated US Treasury yields. $BTC $ETH $NEARBig Brother Maji's recent operational rhythm is very strong, with total funds adjusting back and forth between 141 million and 165 million USD. The position changes of the giant whales are a very good reference for observing market sentiment.
$BTC: Reduced positions at high levels to avoid risk, added positions again as the market warmed up, currently holding 390 coins after realizing some profits, average price 84,700, liquidation at 71,600, precise swing trading.
$ETH: Took profits and exited at high levels, recently re-acquired 37,000 coins, profits have been given back turning into a floating loss of 380,000, daily high funding fees, liquidation at 2,540.
$HYPE: Multiple position adjustments, continued reducing positions after turning profitable, currently a floating loss of 230,000, liquidation at 57.
$PUMP slight loss, considered an auxiliary small position, impact is minimal.
⚠️Key reminder: Watching giant whale actions ≠ mindless copy trading.
Giant whales cashing out at high levels is a risk warning; positioning at low levels represents funds testing the bottom. Understand the fund movements and follow the trend, always prioritize preserving principal. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Brothers, look back at $ZEC, it was just over 700 at the end of August, and in less than a month, it has directly doubled!
A man's intuition tells me this altcoin is trying to replace Ethereum's position! It's really targeting the shorts.
The current trick is to move two steps and then pause, giving you the illusion that it can't rise and is about to crash, causing many friends to enter short positions based on this false impression. Then suddenly a big bullish candle pulls it up, and the shorts get trapped.
Once trapped, they can't bear to cut losses and have to hold on hard, eventually holding until liquidation. I've seen this script too many times recently.
Since we know this is the current shakeout tactic, let's not try to guess the top against the trend.
Keep the strategy simple: don't blindly short at highs, wait for a pullback to support, then go long with the trend. The target can be around 1800! $ETH $CORE 🚨 BTC retraced from 87,239 down to around 85,000, possibly driven by the "turnaround" in U.S. Treasury yields
Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, the 2-year yield briefly plunged about 10 basis points, but the 10-year yield then rose back to 5.24%
Employment cools down, but the bond market is unconvinced—what is it worried about?
📊 Data comparison:
· 10-year: Intraday Thursday 5.34% (highest since 2002) → dropped after nonfarm → rebounded to about 5.24%
· 2-year: briefly fell to 4.69%, then rose back to about 4.81%
· October rate hike probability: dropped from 29% to 17%
📍 What the bond market is worried about:
· Term premium rising: investors demand higher compensation for holding long-term bonds
· Global bond sell-off: UK 30-year yield broke 6%, France 10-year near 5%, Japan long-term yields also at multi-year highs
· Fed remains hawkish internally: Dallas Fed President says more rate hikes are needed
🎯 For BTC: The nonfarm surprise pushed BTC up to 87,239, but long-term yields didn’t fall accordingly, so BTC retraced afterward. Resistance at 87,239, support at 85,000 and 84,017. Next week’s key focus is whether the 10-year 5.24% yield can continue to decline.
$BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Using BTC to benchmark CORE as a way to whitewash is the most misleading rhetoric in the circle.
You always hear this argument: BTC has developed for over a decade, CORE only for a few years, so don’t blindly slander it.
But when comparing projects, you can’t just use time as a cover; the fundamental bases of the two are worlds apart. $BTC had no pre-mining in its early days, and tokens were gradually distributed to miners; in contrast, $CORE’s top ten holders control the vast majority of tokens. The project initially promised to build 34 nodes, but now only 20 remain, nodes keep withdrawing, and tokens continue unlocking, with selling pressure constantly looming.
Once you present on-chain public data and project announcements as facts, someone immediately accuses you of deliberate slander.
Honestly, no one comes here as an undercover agent, nor as a do-gooder, to give free warmth to the project team. I’m just presenting verifiable data to remind everyone to see the potential risks clearly.
A truly healthy public chain naturally accepts rational questioning. Visions can be freely painted, but hard issues like concentrated token holdings, node loss, and continuous unlocking should not be selectively ignored.
Only allowing praise and good news, and immediately slapping labels and suppressing any doubts—that kind of project atmosphere is inherently abnormal.
No matter how beautifully the story is told, in the end, it depends on ecological implementation and the network’s long-term stable operation. Price fluctuations are just appearances; token structure and node operations are the fundamental foundations that a public chain cannot avoid.
All investment gains and losses ultimately must be borne by the participants themselves.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Personal opinion sharing, not investment advice. AppLovin and Adobe Launch OKX US Stock Perpetuals, APP Up to 25x Leverage with Full USDT Settlement
OKX has recently launched US stock perpetual contracts consecutively, offering 25x leverage for APP and 20x for ADBE, allowing direct trading without converting to USD. This morning, I saw APPUSD and ADBEUSD available for orders in the contract list. I checked AppLovin on the app, with the market price at $269.28, and a daily turnover of 4,318 APP, which is more active than I expected.
These two contracts settle funding fees every 8 hours by default, with upper and lower limits locked at ±1.00%. If the rate hits the limit, it automatically switches to hourly settlements. I just checked the funding rate panel, and both are currently at 0.0000%, indicating no one is heavily long yet. Adobe’s current price is $237.76, with a volume of only 404 contracts, noticeably quieter.
Not having to open an overseas brokerage account is definitely convenient, and you can place orders anytime even on weekends. But when I tried placing orders myself, the order book during US stock market off-hours is noticeably thinner than during trading hours, with nearly a $0.20 spread between the best bid and ask. Around Monday’s open, you’re likely to encounter market gaps, and holding over 20x leverage can easily lead to liquidation.
For those holding USDT, do you prefer using it to trade high-volatility tech stocks like AppLovin for swing trading, or do you stick to just watching Bitcoin and Ethereum?BTC broke $86K — but the real signal is leverage.
Open Interest jumped ~$2.3B as funding turned positive.
That means traders are adding bullish exposure while price pushes higher.
If BTC keeps climbing, leverage can accelerate the move.
If price stalls, crowded longs become fuel for a sharp flush.
Watch OI + funding, not just the chart.
#BTC #Crypto #OKXThis morning, a bunch of chip news stacked together only makes sense when viewed collectively: Broadcom is planning to invest $60 billion aggressively into AI chips, Toshiba is doubling its data center HDD capacity for the first time in five years with a major move, and even Google has raised the price of its entry-level Pixel by $100 due to storage cost increases. On one side, AI infrastructure is being heavily funded, while on the other, costs are already starting to pass on to consumers. As a trader, I don't just watch this for entertainment—when capex is burning at this level, the key question is when the returns will catch up. The more fiercely money is burned, the louder the bubble will burst. $BTC is now tied to the tech giants; when they catch their breath, crypto will tremble along. Do you believe "this time is different," or do you believe in cycles?#The US-Iran situation remains tense, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves
The US-Iran situation remains tense, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves
Brothers, the G7 has taken emergency action. On October 2, the Group of Seven announced coordination through the International Energy Agency to release up to 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserves over the next four months, with a large amount of diesel concentrated in the first 20 days. France currently holds the rotating presidency of the G7.
Oil prices plunged in response. WTI crude oil futures fell more than 5% intraday, approaching $88 per barrel, closing with a narrowed decline of 1.73% at $91.26 per barrel; European diesel prices once plummeted over 8%. However, Brent crude futures later turned up, closing at $102.405 per barrel after an earlier drop of nearly 4%.
Why didn’t oil prices fall deeper? JPMorgan data shows that Middle East crude oil exports have recovered to 98% of pre-war levels, but refined product exports are only at 58% of pre-war levels, with a structural shortfall in diesel and jet fuel that is unresolved in the short term. The US average diesel price remains at a historic high of $6.40 per gallon.
BTC current price is about 84,500-85,000, briefly reaching 87,239 after the non-farm payrolls, then retreating, with about $445 million liquidated in 24 hours. Resistance above is 87,000, support below is 84,500. Stop loss positions below 84,000; wait for a pullback to 84,500 to stabilize before entering short positions, don’t chase highs.
What do you think about this oil reserve release? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Friday's drama in the crypto world is called mechanical liquidation.
After the non-farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped, $BTC once surged to 87,000 intraday, then quickly crashed below 84,000 — over $570 million liquidated in 24 hours, with $186 million liquidated in just one hour, 99% of which were long positions. Binance had a liquidation order close to $12 million topping the leaderboard.
But the incongruity is: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still remains at 72 in the greed zone.
Everyone says a crash equals panic, but the data says otherwise: this wave is a leverage purge, not a shift to bearish sentiment — leverage built up from rapid gains must pay the price when reversed.
So don’t take liquidations as a bottom signal. The real judge will be the September CPI in the coming days, which will determine the direction of long-term US Treasuries, and the long end will decide whether institutional money flows back in.Damn, I almost got scared to death.
This night has really been like a roller coaster, and now finally the floating loss has turned into a profit again.
Shorting is still the way to go, it seems that although the previous rise was fierce, it still looked a bit like a paper tiger.
Sure enough, it has fallen back again. At the current state, I think shorting is still viable.
$CAP violently pulled back from the lowest 0.05907 yesterday to the highest 0.08469. Honestly, that moment really gave me chills, I almost hit my stop loss.
But looking carefully at the market, this rally did not firmly break the previous high, then it directly dropped. Today's decline has already reached -13.79%.
Now the price has returned to around 0.07215, my opening average price is 0.08251, and I currently have a floating profit of +37.08% again.
This back and forth increasingly confirms for me that the short position logic at this level is correct.
Currently, the price has broken below MA5, MA10, and MA20, with a clear downward trend.
My stop loss is still set at 0.087, take profit is first at 0.06, and if it breaks below that, then look at 0.05.
As long as the market does not strongly break the previous high, the short opportunity remains.
This market is all about mindset; holding through the washout by the manipulative whales is how you secure the profits ahead.
$BTC $ETH #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 🐱Let's chat about this month meow!
The profit curve this month is still very beautiful 😄
(The cat's main account is open for live trading)
Only four trades in September, feeling lazy, just holding the original positions without moving (tech stocks in AI storage cloud service chips). The main position is a long on Hynix $SKHYNIX, then longs on Google $GOOGL and Broadcom. Sold some Hynix at 1420u, then bought back at 1270u, gaining a bit more.
Also bought a bit of gold $XAU at 4150; gold at this level is very attractive for investment, you might consider buying some. Friends buying gold should have some discipline; medium to long-term holding can yield considerable returns (of course, except for very high leverage, but I don't like that risk).
Everyone enjoy the holiday meow~
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve when dealing with risk assets. This morning, Japan's Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki made consecutive statements: the government is trying to convince the market that Sanae Takaichi "is not pursuing re-inflation," and also mentioned that the exchange rate trend has changed after joint intervention. To translate— the Japanese government is sending a warning to the market, fearing the yen will be sold off again. What does this have to do with the crypto world? The yen is the world's largest source of cheap funding; once carry trades are forced to close, the first to get drained are high-risk assets, and $BTC won't escape. Everyone remembers how the flash crash in August 2024 happened. Keep an eye on the yen, not just the K-line.My $BTC 10x long position is still open, currently at an unrealized loss of 22%, logging the chicken leg meal loss first.
The entry average price was $86,460, and now BTC is around $84,600. The loss has widened, and the price hasn't yet returned above the 1-hour moving average. I'll first see if this sideways consolidation can repair the position.
The 1-hour EMA20 is near $84,873, RSI about 43. The price is still below the moving average, and the recent candles have been grinding sideways between $84,400 and $84,600. Only if it recovers above $84,900 will there be a chance to test $85,700; otherwise, it's just catching a breath.
Perpetual contract open interest has decreased by about 5.0% compared to roughly 23 hours ago. Both price and open interest have dropped, indicating some longs have exited. If the price rebounds and open interest increases again, that would mean new money is coming in; if only the price bounces but open interest stays flat, I'll treat it as short covering.
Among OKX smart money, 20 are long and 13 are short, with longs accounting for 52.0% of the amount, but total open interest has decreased by about $9.5 million. They are slightly bullish but are pulling back their positions. If the price can reclaim their average long cost of $85,644, this position can truly recover.
Yesterday, BTC ETF net inflow was about $120 million, mid-term buying is still there, but institutions won't specifically come to rescue my entry price.
I continue to watch $84,900 and $85,700. If the 1-hour close falls below $84,000, the next stop might be $83,200; if that breaks too, I can't force the chicken leg meal into a full banquet.The U.S. Cabinet held a closed-door meeting at Camp David for several hours on Friday, discussing the next steps regarding Iran and the Houthis—such unannounced meetings last happened just days before Israel took action against Iran last year. In the comments, some are shouting "War is here, quickly buy $BTC to hedge." Hold on. The pattern over the past two years is clear: geopolitical escalation → oil prices rise → inflation sticks → rate hike expectations return → gold and $BTC both fall. War is currently not priced as a safe haven but as "more rate hikes coming." If you really want to understand the risk, watch the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, not the crypto price line. Do you think this time will be different? 如果已经锁定了一部分利润，可以考虑把部分收益转到现货仓位，降低杠杆带来的波动压力。市场永远有机会，但利润真正落袋之后，才算是自己的。 当前 $BTC 与 $ETH 仍处在高波动环境，资金流向、宏观数据和美联储预期都可能影响短线节奏。与其追着每一次上涨跑，不如先保护已有收益，再等待下一次更清晰的机会。 盈利之后懂得收手，也是一种交易能力。 少一点 FOMO，多一点纪律。该休息的时候，就好好休息。😴🌙 晚安，Makapaka。🌙 $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit #CryptoMarket #BTC #ETH #FuturesTrading #SpotNonfarm payroll data is so hot, so why did the candlestick show a long upper shadow first? Is this a shakeout, or is smart money quietly changing hands? I stared at this chart for a long time, and the first thought that popped into my mind was: many people directly take the long upper shadow as a signal of a top, but this time they may have misjudged the stage. Nonfarm payrolls are strong, theoretically suppressing rate cut expectations, so risk appetite should have contracted. But BTC only hit selling pressure at 87,238, and it held at 83,773, indicating selling is happening, but support hasn't disappeared. Now it feels more like the first divergence in the middle of the trend, not a collective retreat at the end of distribution. Let's look at the data snapshot first. - BTC current price is 84,467, with resistance above at 85,956 and support below at 83,773. - ETH current price is 2663.41, suppressed at 2685.91, support at 2402.91, with a larger amplitude than BTC. - SOL current price is 117.92, suppressed at 118.98, support at 98.88, and after pullback, it just hovers near 117.90. - Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, but the market version is "nonfarm payrolls are overweight," and the gap in expectations itself is causing volatility. - BTC and ETH spot ETFs have turned outflow simultaneously, and short-term capital activity is indeed cooling down. Momentum and risk signals should be viewed separately. - Momentum remains: SOL is the main force resisting the decline this round, with the strongest resilience. As long as the 117.90 level holds, the rebound structure holds. - Risk is accumulating: Both BTC and ETH hourly charts show clear long-term gainsBTC and ETH spot ETFs are experiencing simultaneous capital outflows, institutional entry pace is slowing, and short-term market risk appetite is cooling down.
A single capital flight does not indicate a market reversal, it only means a decline in incremental capital enthusiasm. The key is to watch whether the outflow continues and whether prices can withstand selling pressure.
⚠️Risk warning: Continuous ETF outflows + price breakdown + sustained ETH weakness + high leverage coexistence can easily trigger linked corrections.
Tracking sequence: ETF funds → US Treasury dollar → spot absorption → ETH/BTC strength → altcoin sentiment.
Capital inflow and volume breakout are reliable bullish signals; continuous outflows and rebound without volume should be avoided.
Current view: Trend reversal is not yet confirmed, short-term capital conditions are relatively cold. Before capital warms up, rebounds should be mostly observed with little action; a stable market requires the resonance of macro factors, capital, and market conditions. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备