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Bitcoin is "stalling" at a high level above 80,000, while the A-share market doesn't rest during the holiday; it's time to reduce leverage first.
On the second day of the holiday, a special reminder to friends holding coins and US stocks: you are celebrating, but the market is not.
Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a high level around 83,000 to 85,000 USD.
After previously reaching the 8-month high of 87,400, it has retreated and has yet to break through effectively.
Ethereum is consolidating at a similar high level (based on your exchange's real-time quotes; liquidity is thin during the holiday, so do not speculate on intraday prices).
On-chain risk signals have not been cleared.
Short-term holders' unrealized profit rate remains at about 33%, a 21-month high, and the "bull market index" is near 90 points.
On the other hand, with everyone in floating profit, any negative news could trigger concentrated profit-taking.
And there are plenty of negative catalysts during the holiday.
US Treasury yields are at a 24-year high, oil prices have returned to 102, the Middle East situation is unsettled, and non-farm payroll data is yet to be released.
Crypto markets operate 24/7 and may experience intense volatility while you are traveling, dining, or sleeping.
Holding coins over the holiday is fine, but be sure to do three things: reduce leverage, set stop losses, and avoid heavy positions betting on direction during the holiday.
Having a stable long holiday is much more valuable than chasing an uncertain swing.Brent crude surged 4.4% back to 102, the 40 million barrel strategic reserve only effective for one day
The day before yesterday praised the strategic reserve for immediate effect, yesterday oil prices slapped back.
Eastern US October 1 international oil prices rebounded significantly
WTI November contract rose 2.71% to $92.87
Brent new front-month December contract surged 4.37% to $102.31
(Brent has switched from November to December, don’t directly compare it with the previous day’s November price of 103.53)
This means the US "swap release of 40 million barrels SPR" suppression basically only lasted one day
The market quickly refocused on the old supply-side issues: Middle East conflict, Strait of Hormuz, diesel export controls
As long as the geopolitical fuse isn’t removed, releasing reserves is more like covering a raging fire with a wet blanket, it won’t extinguish it
Not good news for those holding positions over the holiday
Oil prices returning to the 90–103 range will continue to support inflation stickiness, which in turn limits the Fed’s room to pivot dovish
This also explains why US Treasury yields are so stubborn
If oil prices don’t fall, global risk assets can’t rally freely, and post-holiday openings will still depend on the Middle East’s situation #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Review of the market on the 1st and 2nd:
PCE positive news landed, $BTC BTC surged overnight from 9.30-10.1 to 85577. But the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a 20-year high at 5.33%, leading to direct profit-taking and a rapid price pullback.
On the 1st, the high and low were 85577~82961, closing at 83600. ETF saw slight inflows, but Grayscale kept selling, showing clear institutional divergence.
On the 2nd, it oscillated between 83000-84500. US Treasury yields slightly retreated but remained high.
ETF funds supported the bottom, making deep drops difficult; however, with US Treasury pressure present, rebounds are hard to sustain and prone to being crushed upon any rise.
Currently, it's a range-bound oscillation, with positive news only causing short-term pulse moves. No need to obsess over candlesticks; the key is whether US Treasury yields can turn downward.
Do you think US Treasury yields will continue to surge?AI trading is still far off, but AI strategies are already very close. I've always been cautious about handing over order placement entirely to a black box—the model can be a good engineer but not a good prophet, and losses are hard to trace back. Let's think differently: let AI help you build tools, not place bets for you. I personally tested an on-chain strategy tool managing the Uniswap V3 USDT-BTCB pool on BSC: up to 80% balance on both sides, price range ±10% around the current price, and a maximum of 3 rebalances per day, all without writing a single line of code. It covers Swap/LP/lending, is multi-chain, non-custodial, with exportable code for review, excels at minute-level and above yield rotation and fee arbitrage, but is not good at high-frequency or front-running. Its positioning is very clear: a one-person on-chain hedge fund. $ETH $UNIThe AI star company Anthropic preparing for an IPO is currently a hot topic in the Web3 community.
Many people overlook one point: crypto platforms have already launched Anthropic's Pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts, and a lot of capital is betting on its listing valuation.
If Anthropic's IPO performs spectacularly, there will be two chain reactions:
1. Market AI narrative sentiment will heat up, AI concept crypto tokens will see short-term popularity, attracting speculative capital inflows;
2. Institutional funds will make new choices: some capital will withdraw from pure narrative AI crypto tokens and directly allocate to real AI enterprise stocks in the US market, squeezing out AI small coins without actual products.
But the underlying logic of the overall crypto market will not be changed by the IPO of a single AI company. US dollar liquidity and regulatory policies remain dominant.
Do you think that after Anthropic officially goes public, AI sector crypto tokens will experience a rally, or will they weaken due to capital being diverted to US AI stocks?
#Web3 #Crypto #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 When tokenized government bonds yield high returns, they will draw DeFi funds and also bring new collateral.
When low-risk off-chain assets offer attractive yields, some funds will shift from lending and liquidity pools within the $ETH ecosystem to tokenized government bonds. This compresses deposits and yields for certain protocols but also introduces more stable collateral and valuation bases to the on-chain market.
The impact is not simply bearish or bullish; it depends on whether these assets can be safely composable on-chain. If they can only be held in a closed manner, they act more like a capital outflow; if they can participate in lending, settlement, and margin systems within compliance boundaries, they will expand the asset scope of the entire on-chain finance.
However, collateral quality also depends on redemption times and trading sessions. On-chain markets operate 24/7, but the underlying government bond markets have business hours, and price and liquidity gaps may appear on weekends or during stress periods. If protocols are designed assuming instant redemption is always possible, they will underestimate mismatch risks.
The gap between 24/7 on-chain liquidity and scheduled off-chain settlement is precisely the risk source that makes this type of collateral most easily underestimated.
Traditional yields entering Ethereum are not just competing for funds but may also become the foundation for the next layer of applications.Years ago, an old lady bought three color TVs and hid them under the bed
Afraid that her son wouldn't be able to afford one when he got married
At that time, color TVs kept rising in price
The reasoning behind this is the same
Recognize the trend: Bitcoin has only 21 million coins, and facing inflationary fiat currency, the long-term trend can only be upward. The painful truth is, in the next bear market, we might never see Bitcoin below 100,000 again$BTC is stuck near $84K, but the leverage picture is changing
OI is falling while funding stays positive but relatively neutral, suggesting some leverage is being flushed
BTC pushed toward $85.5K after the PCE data but failed to hold
The $85K–$85.5K zone remains key resistance, while $82.5K is the first major support
Taker buy/sell is below 1, showing sellers remain active. Watching $85.5K vs $82.5K
📊 I’m waiting for confirmation rather than chasing either side. Key levels first.The 10-year yield surged intraday to 5.348%, hitting a 24-year high, but the Fed Vice Chair's remark pushed it back down
On the first night of the holiday, global asset controls were held tightly by U.S. Treasuries.
On October 1st Eastern Time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose intraday by 4 basis points to 5.348%
Breaking the 2007 high, reaching the highest level since 2002, with the 30-year yield also hitting multi-year highs
The stock market was suppressed by this yield all morning, unable to rally
The turning point came with Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's speech
He acknowledged "inflation has been too high for too long, with risks of sustained elevated levels"
But also emphasized the need to "carefully assess future data and more time to judge" before deciding the next step
The market interpreted the latter as "no rush to raise rates in October"
The effect was immediate
U.S. Treasury yields plunged from highs, and the three major U.S. stock indices turned positive by the close
According to media estimates, market bets on a rate hike in October fell from nearly 70% to about 50%
This is the current reality: data and officials' statements can cause repeated repricing within a day
The sword of high interest rates still hangs, but the short-term reins have loosened a bit
The real judge before the post-holiday open will be the nonfarm payroll data, which is more decisive than any speechMarket fluctuations are uncontrollable; what you can truly control are your own "desires, attachments, greed, and restraint."
Everything I lose is never truly mine. Everything I seek is what traps me. Everything I cling to is what burdens me. Everything I am greedy for is what weighs me down. All things serve me, but I do not belong to them. Those who know contentment are not disgraced; those who know restraint are not endangered; by doing nothing, nothing is left undone.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks are people who know when not to act. To gain and to let go; to advance and to retreat; knowing when to stop is true freedom.
In the past 12 hours, $BTC has fluctuated repeatedly around $84,000. Yesterday, the cooling PCE briefly pushed BTC up to $85,500, but the persistently high U.S. Treasury yields suppressed risk appetite again, and gains were subsequently given back. ETH is around $2,690, generally following BTC’s movement, with altcoins still showing clear divergence. In the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq and Dow Jones closed slightly higher, but the 10-year Treasury yield once approached 5.34% before falling back to about 5.23%. The market is still waiting for the October 2 nonfarm payrolls to provide the next direction.
Today’s real variable is not just the nonfarm number itself, but whether the employment data will change the market’s judgment on future interest rates.
You can have the market, but you cannot possess it; you can pursue profits, but you cannot be obsessed. A true master does not try to capture every rise fully but knows when to hold, when to release, and when to stop.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The statement "I've done it many times before, so I can do it this time too" only talks about the successful attempts. The risk with early-stage projects is that the vast majority either go to zero or stall, and the proportion that actually take off is extremely low. When you see such a preview, first think clearly about how much loss you can bear before deciding whether to follow along.🏦 BTC spot, 12 ETF funds all with no net inflow, single-day net outflow of $149 million
ETH and SOL ETFs also turned to net outflows, institutional funds collectively "hit the brakes"
BTC stands above 84,000, who is still buying the dip?
📊 Latest capital flow (SoSoValue):
· BTC ETF: net outflow of $149 million｜Fidelity FBTC -$126 million, BITB -$13.63 million
· ETH ETF: net outflow of $59.58 million｜10 funds with no net inflow, outflow for 2 consecutive days
· SOL ETF: net outflow of $5.91 million on the latest trading day｜outflow for 2 consecutive days, cumulative net inflow still about $1.6 billion
· ZEC ETF: net outflow of $30.25 million the previous day
📍 My interpretation:
· BTC price is rising, but ETFs are flowing out; this rebound seems more driven by contract leverage rather than spot institutions buying
· Single-day outflow does not mean a trend reversal; the previous 9-day cumulative inflow was about $3 billion
🎯 Viewpoint: Tonight's non-farm payrolls will set the tone. If ETFs continue to outflow for multiple days and BTC falls back below 83,346, caution should be heightened.
Do you think this outflow is temporary or a signal of trend reversal?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 The non-farm payroll blind box opens tonight, I'll slip away first out of respect!
Good morning to all genius traders! Woke up feeling pretty good!
My 100x full position long on ETH and BTC shows a floating profit of 25% on ETH and 68% on BTC. It looks great on the surface, but inside I'm really anxious. The moving averages on the 15-minute chart are all tightly converged, tighter than 502 glue, clearly the eerie calm before the storm, with bulls and bears both using magnifying glasses to find direction.
Tonight at 20:30 is the non-farm payroll release, with expectations ranging from 35,000 to 180,000 — such a huge range it could fit a whole cow! This isn't economic data, it's pure blind box opening. Citibank is bullish up to 3028, which sounds like sweet talk long-term, but with 100x leverage, I’m afraid I might not even see the next minute, let alone tonight. If it beats expectations, I'll be lining up on the rooftop; if it falls short, I'll take off on the spot. This is not trading, it's gambling with life.
As a seasoned veteran trader, my survival rule is simple: never stand under a dangerous wall, and never be fuel for a forced liquidation engine. Before the data release, I plan to run first out of respect, reducing positions to stay safe. Stop losses must be firmly set at 2672 and 82500.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC $ETH $ZEC The latest market report from Coinbase points out that the selling pressure to realize profits at BTC's high levels has significantly increased, with profit-taking reaching the peak for the year. Meanwhile, new buying on both spot and futures sides has weakened simultaneously, signaling a cooling in market demand.
Personal view
This set of data is very alarming. After a sustained rise, short-term traders have substantial paper profits and tend to take profits as soon as the market fluctuates, continuously releasing selling pressure. More critically, the decline in new demand means the market is purely relying on existing funds to compete, lacking fresh capital to take over, which will greatly reduce the momentum for further upward movement.
However, it is not necessary to directly conclude a trend reversal. Long-term ETF funds are still continuously flowing in, and long-term holders have not sold off massively. This is short-term profit-taking, not a large-scale capital flight.
The market has now entered a phase of long-short competition, with more high-level fluctuations and increased volatility. If U.S. Treasury yields rise again, combined with concentrated profit-taking, it could easily trigger a rapid correction.
In trading, do not continue to chase longs in contracts; try to reduce leverage at high levels and set stop losses. Do not rely solely on ETF funds and ignore on-chain profit-taking signals. Key points to watch going forward: whether selling pressure continues to expand and whether new buying can return to support.Brothers, SNDK closed at 1787, up 2.75%, Micron's earnings gave a strong boost to the NAND sector
$SNDK $1,787.69
SanDisk closed up 2.75% on Thursday at $1,787.69, hitting an intraday high of $1,802, with a trading volume of about $16.3 billion. From the September 22 high of $1,909, the pullback has narrowed to about 6%
Micron's earnings ignite the storage sector, Citi reiterates $2,100 target price
Micron's Q4 results exceeded expectations, NAND revenue surged 42% quarter-over-quarter, prices rose about 30%, far exceeding the market expectation of 20%. Micron management clearly stated that "over 75% of 2027 output is already locked in," and the industry supply-demand environment is "very healthy"
Citi reiterates SNDK "Buy" rating and $2,100 target price, with the core logic that NAND supply tightness may continue into 2028, and AI data centers shifting KV Cache to SSD applications will continue to drive demand. Bernstein maintains "Outperform" rating and $3,000 target price, emphasizing that SNDK has signed 8 long-term contracts locking in a minimum revenue of $93.9 billion
Key data: Analyst consensus target price is $2,137, about 20% upside from current levels. The Q1 earnings report on October 29 is the next catalyst.
Let's discuss in the comments, can Micron's earnings push SNDK back to 1900?👇
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 ZEC dropped from the high of 1695 directly down to around 1300, wiping out half a month's gains in just a few days.
Looking at charts across several timeframes, the 15-minute MACD just formed a golden cross, with the green bars turning red, indicating a short-term rebound possibility. However, the 1-hour chart still shows green bars, and the 4-hour and daily charts are even worse, with death crosses pointing down and expanding green bars. Small timeframes are recovering, but the larger ones are still falling, so don't rush to call the bottom.
Below, 1305 was yesterday's low and a short-term critical level. If it breaks, it will likely seek support around 1200. On the upside, watch the 1336 MA10; only if it holds above that can it catch a breather. Beyond that is the major resistance at 1420, which can't be passed without volume.
After such a drop, shorting again risks getting caught by a rebound, and bottom fishing isn't urgent either. Wait for at least a 1-hour golden cross or a decent daily candle signaling a stop to the decline before acting. In this market, it's better to miss out than to make a wrong move.
#ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 $ZEC
Personal review, not investment advice10-2 ETH&BTC
【Market】: Volatile
【High points】: 2715--2745--2750--2777--2800---2827
【Low points】: 2684--2650--2638--2620--2600---2585
Minor resistance: 2715 2720 2745
Minor support: 2680 2650 2638
Range oscillation between 2715--2684, H1 level wedge pattern waiting for breakout;
Focus on the impact of the non-farm payroll data tonight
Aggressive long: Break above 2680
Conservative long: Around 2640
Aggressive short: Around 2745--2750
Conservative short: Around 2777
Note: The market has been oscillating for too long, whether long or short, always use stop-loss.NEAR's recent drop is its own issue. Since the high on 9/28, it has fallen 11%, while BTC and ETH have both slightly risen during the same period. Unlocking, contract activity, delisting, and burning do not align.
First, the ETF bullish momentum was realized. From 9/20 to 9/28, it rose from 3.40 to 5.58, a 64% increase in 8 days. This was driven by listing on Hyperliquid spot, Ondo US stock tokens, Bitwise's ETF application, and the NYSE approval on 9/27. The peak came about 9 hours after approval, even a day before the official listing. On 10/1 at 14:00, it surged again to 5.54 but did not surpass the previous high. By 9 PM, it had declined 7% without new news. ETF inflows continued but dropped from $35.5 million on 9/29 to about $9 million on 10/1.
The final blow was the theft of about $3.8 million in NEAR Intents. On 10/1 at 20:53, the official announcement came; at 21:02 the sell-off started, dropping from 5.10 to 4.74 in 6 minutes, a 7% fall. Contract trading volume that hour was about 7 times normal. The loss was only USDT on BSC; the official team promised compensation, and the protocol and token itself were unaffected. It then rebounded to 5.0 and has now returned near 4.8.
The impact is now smaller; a small stop-loss long position can be taken, with profit-taking at the previous high Here’s a refined version with a tone more like a Chinese financial news account combined with a crypto influencer’s style, adding some narrative and value insights:
BTC, ETH, and SOL: Three Distinct Positions
🚨 $BTC vs $ETH vs $SOL: Three Paths, Three Core Values
If we view the entire crypto industry as a comprehensive financial and application ecosystem, then BTC, ETH, and SOL are not simply competing over "who gains more," but each plays a unique role.
₿ $BTC | Digital Scarce Asset The core logic is scarcity and value storage. With a fixed issuance mechanism, BTC is closer to a digital monetary asset. Market focus is more on capital inflows, institutional allocation, and macro liquidity changes.
◆ $ETH | On-Chain Financial Infrastructure Ethereum acts as the foundational platform for the on-chain economy. DeFi, stablecoins, staking, Layer 2 solutions, and various on-chain applications all revolve around its ecosystem. Its core strength lies in the scale of its ecosystem and the depth of its financial applications.
⚡ $SOL | High-Performance On-Chain Execution Platform Solana emphasizes speed, low cost, and high throughput, making it suitable for high-frequency trading, DeFi, payments, and extensive on-chain interactions. Compared to "value storage," it highlights on-chain activity and execution efficiency.
📌 Therefore, BTC, ETH, and SOL are not three answers to the same question.
BTC leans more toward asset attributes,
ETH leans toward financial and application infrastructure,
SOL leans toward high-performance on-chain execution. The 16.88 million sell orders at 90K are not particularly large, but combined with the accumulation from 91K to 97K, the overall resistance is quite strong. This kind of distribution usually indicates that funds are gradually positioning short orders, or that previously trapped positions are waiting to be freed.
#BTC If it can break through 88K with volume, the first target is 90K. But the selling pressure above 90K is more concentrated, which will be the real test.A key data point connecting AI and macro: Tech giants' AI-related borrowing this year has reached $220 billion, more than double last year — including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle (according to Reuters). This wave of bond issuance is pushing U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2002.
The logic chain is: AI arms race → giants need massive capital expenditure → large-scale bond issuance → bond supply increases → yields are pushed higher. This is the same variable mentioned in Qin Ba's previous macro analysis about "AI big tech bond issuance being irreversible."
Why should crypto care about U.S. Treasury yields? Because it is almost the denominator for the valuation of all risk assets. The higher the yield, the greater the opportunity cost of holding risk assets, and the more suppressed their valuations become. So whether "AI will squeeze crypto" is not only about competing for funds and talent but also indirectly affects crypto's funding through the bond market chain. NEAR's current price is around 2.5, still far from the 2024 high of over 9 dollars. If the "crash" here refers to a further drop from the current position, it first needs to be confirmed that it breaks below the recent support level. The recent low is between 2.3 and 2.4; only if it breaks this can acceleration be discussed.
The expression "million-dollar short position" packages the result of a single trade as predictive ability. Many people profit from shorting, but losing trades are rarely exposed. The win rate depends on long-term records, not a single success.
NEAR's fundamentals have not significantly deteriorated. Its mainnet activity, developer data, and ecosystem projects are all within normal ranges. If the price weakens, a more likely reason is a decline in overall market risk appetite, with funds concentrating on mainstream coins rather than an issue with NEAR itself.
From a trading perspective, if NEAR breaks below 2.3, the next support level is around 2.0. If it holds 2.3, a short-term rebound is possible. The direction depends on the overall market, not just NEAR alone.On-chain data shows no new dominant buying pressure; the position of MOVR here is purely a liquidation game.
At dawn, there was an active sell order split from around 2.88, but it didn't continue to push down, more like testing liquidity near the long stop-loss pool between 2.75 and 2.85 below.
Just turned the car into a back street to stop and grabbed a quick bite of cold food, the urging call is still buzzing, eyes can only focus on the order book.
The short liquidation above 3.15 to 3.25 is thicker than below, indicating stronger short squeeze elasticity, but the premise is to hold above 3.0.
Currently stuck at 2.914 in the middle, EMA resistance not broken, MACD volume bars continue to shrink, no signal of bulls adding positions.
Operationally, wait for a pullback to 2.82 to 2.86 to lightly buy longs; stop loss immediately if it breaks below 2.79. First take profit target is 3.05; after breaking 3.05, look towards 3.18 to 3.22.
If volume breaks below 3.0, chase with half position. This trade is not shorting, only taking upward liquidation.
$MOVR
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
@OKX星球 The worse the market looks, the more you need to stay steady
$BTC is stuck at the 85,000 threshold and can't get through, $ETH barely holds at the 2,700 edge, $SOL is trapped around 118, neither up nor down — it’s really frustrating to watch. $OKB has dropped the most fiercely, with long positions' stop-loss orders being triggered one after another, the market is so green it makes you want to shut down your computer.
But what I want to say is: this drop has a lot of fluff.
It's not a fundamental collapse, it's a panic in sentiment. Before data releases, big funds reduced exposure, short-term chips were cashed out, and once key levels broke, stop-loss orders triggered in chains. These three forces combined often create a pit far more exaggerated than the real selling pressure.
Sentiment pits and trend turning points are two completely different things. The former can be repaired, the latter is deadly. Right now, it’s clearly the former.
Regarding US Treasuries, don’t be scared by 5.6%.
The 30-year yield has indeed hit the highest since 2002, but note one detail: when $BTC surged to 85,000, it was precisely when inflation data briefly calmed the market, then bond sell-offs dragged it back. What does this mean? The interest rate pressure on crypto is a reflex of sentiment, not a systemic withdrawal of capital.
Once the narrative of interest rates peaking switches, the recovery speed of risk assets will be faster than most expect. The question now isn’t "if it will switch," but "when it will switch."
Nonfarm payrolls are the real card.
In the prediction market, the probability of September nonfarm exceeding 90,000 is at 60%, and the chance of breaking 100,000 is nearly 50/50. But Wall Street investment banks have wildly divergent expectations — Goldman Sachs sees 80,000, while Bank of America and Deutsche Bank only expect 60,000.
This expectation gap itself is an opportunity. If data lands between 60,000 and 90,000, the market will interpret it as "cooling employment but no collapse," which suppresses rate hike expectations; if it’s above 100,000, there will be short-term shocks, but the bad news landing is better than uncertainty.
What annoys me most are those who panic sell before the data even comes out. Neither nonfarm nor PCE data have been revealed yet, and it’s too early to declare the market dead.
Some practical points.
$BTC has relatively solid support around 82,500. If bulls can hold there and continue to raise the lows, the structure remains intact. $SOL has a dense stop-loss zone near 116; breaking it might trigger another spike, but depth below 113.68 is limited.
Volume-driven sell-offs are sometimes just emotional venting; once vented, the market should repair. Before data lands, preserving capital and staying calm is far more important than holding positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 How will Bitcoin and Ethereum respond to the MACD divergence adjustment?
$ETH, $ETH currently show almost identical trends, with Ethereum possibly being slightly stronger. The MACD is currently in a divergence state. Based on market analysis, it is highly likely to maintain a high-level range-bound consolidation to resolve the MACD divergence.
There may be an initial sell-off effect when the MACD adjustment nears its end. Key support levels to watch are Bitcoin at 82000 and Ethereum at 2540. These two levels are quite important; holding them could trigger the next wave of upward momentum.
Additionally, with the October rate hike expectations sharply declining, the market currently remains optimistic about risk support. A significant rate hike cycle in the future can be considered unlikely, and the US-Iran relations are easing. Although the negotiation process is somewhat drawn out, I believe it will come to a stop.
I believe Bitcoin and Ethereum will have better opportunities for upward movement in the future.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $14.7 million, of which 53% comes from the deployment on Robinhood Chain.
My first reaction was that Uniswap has finally found a new source of revenue.
But traders see it differently.
Others see the "largest source of income," I see "walking on one leg."
One chain contributing more than half of the income sounds impressive, but it's actually quite risky.
If the heat on Robinhood cools down one day, or if they switch to another DEX, that 53% could disappear just like that.
High revenue concentration is a short-term benefit but a long-term risk.
To put it plainly, Uniswap now relies a bit like a business propped up by one major client.
I’m not keen on chasing $UNI this round.
It’s not that I’m pessimistic, but this kind of structural dependency means we have to wait until it grows a few more legs.
As an experienced trader, what I fear most is mistaking "temporarily strong" for "always strong."
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $UNI #BTC trader Doctor Profit indeed publicly stated he is shorting. He opened #BTC short positions around 86,200 and set additional shorts between 86,500 and 89,500, expecting a pullback to 79,000. At the same time, he liquidated altcoin positions, selling ONDO with a 73% profit and exiting HBAR and #XRP.
This is a trader with a public record, expressing a clear directional judgment. This is different from “insiders secretly selling.” He made an active choice based on an overheated market and excessive altcoin leverage, not a passive exit.
Paying attention to his position changes is more useful than listening to “what they know.”The geopolitical tension lingers, but what truly chokes the crypto market is the oil price. Brent crude has risen above $103, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.33%, a new high since 2002. This round of rate hikes is directly linked to conflicts involving Iran. High oil prices mean inflation clouds are hard to dissipate, and monetary easing space is tightly constrained. Bitcoin just surged to $85,000 on PCE coming in below expectations, but if the situation escalates again and oil prices rise further, the foundation of the rebound will weaken. History has given the answer: after airstrikes, Bitcoin fell 3.2% within hours, and Ethereum dropped 7.7%—in the face of war, the crypto market remains a risky asset. $BTC $ETHBro, today there's a piece of data that's a hundred times more important than the price itself: the market cap dominance of the crypto market leader has fallen below 60%.
If you're not familiar, you might not feel it, so let me translate it for you: In the past few years, whenever this dominance drops, it means money starts flowing out from the big boss, flowing to whom? To high-volatility altcoins like Dogecoin. Historically, every alt season started right after this dominance broke a key threshold, without exception.
When I saw this data at noon, I was in line buying jianbing guozi (Chinese crepes), almost forgot to add the egg. Think about it, with so much water in the pool, when the sluice gate loosens a bit, who gets the water first? It's the one with the biggest name and the strongest community base in the pool. Among altcoins, who can compare to Doge in fame and consensus?
After waiting almost a year for alt season, the door hinge is already creaking. While others are still hesitating if it's just an illusion, I only know one thing: every time the door opens, Doge is the first to rush out.
Hold tight, this wave is coming for us. $DOGE ISM 54.5, slightly down from the previous 54.6, below the expected 55. It's 1.5 points away from 56.
This 1.5-point gap is harder to close than going from 56 to 60. The manufacturing sector's prosperity is shifting from expansion to acceleration, which requires sustained improvement in demand, not something a single month's data can achieve.
#ETH is around 2695, with the monthly 50 moving average right below. If ISM continues toward 60, it would indeed lay the groundwork for the next cycle. But the timing might be later than the market expects. A banner opposing CBDC was hung outside the Bank of Korea in Seoul, with very direct wording: "CBDC will monitor and control my assets. If the bank is hacked, all my assets could disappear. CBDC is very dangerous."
The background is that South Korea is testing wholesale CBDC and bank deposit tokens but has not yet decided whether to launch retail CBDC. The banner specifically opposes this step of "retail CBDC."
The significance of this event is not just about South Korea itself but represents a global emotional tension: central banks worldwide promote CBDC to improve payment efficiency and monetary sovereignty, while the public's core resistance is that "money is tracked, can be frozen, and can be programmed."
This is actually two sides of the same coin as the crypto narrative of "decentralized cash"—both point to "who controls your money." The more CBDC advances, the more some people will come to understand why holding assets not controlled by a single institution is important.At 10.2 early, the current price of Yitai is 2698. The price has stayed above 2650 in recent days, fluctuating around 2700, neither going up nor down, grid trading within this range. This time it really felt great, and the profits have been steadily increasing. Relying on grid trading still feels a bit slow, but persistence is necessary; patience is the foundation of profit.
At this position now, I think it's just waiting for a big drop. With oil prices this high, how much longer can it hold? The longer the horizontal, the higher the vertical—waiting for it to come true. $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Last night, the $GRASS short position had an unrealized profit of 22%, but when I woke up, it was only 0.37%.
The volatility of this coin is really outrageous, with a 24-hour range close to 10%. It's not surprising that profits get wiped out. That's how contracts work—unrealized profits aren't real profits; anything can happen before you lock them in.
But I'm not worried at all. After continuous big gains, a spike is inevitable. I'm just waiting for that spike to take profit and exit. In shorting, the biggest fear is impatience; the more impatient you are, the easier it is to get stopped out.
Is anyone else also waiting on $GRASS? Share your current status in the comments. Are you also waiting for the spike like me? Or have you already exited early, or are you still holding on? #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #BTC to 200,000, #ETH breaking 10,000, #SOL to 1,000, altcoins fully erupting. These targets are set within a 6 to 12 month window, requiring not only cyclical patterns but also liquidity, policy, and capital rotation to align simultaneously.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein's long-term forecasts for #ETH are indeed above 10,000, but the timeline is 2027 to 2029, not next year. Glassnode's altcoin cycle signal has already lit up, but the altcoin season index is still between 60 and 64, some distance from the confirmed 75.
The direction can be trusted, but don't copy the timeline.Core Information Breakdown
1. Bitcoin ETF: Previously had net inflows for 9 consecutive days, interrupted on 9.30, with a significant cooling in inflow intensity. It's no longer a frenzy of large entries, but there is no large-scale exit either. This represents a temporary pause in institutional accumulation rather than a massive sell-off. The cumulative amount is 3.08 billion, with a single-day peak near 1 billion on 9.21. Now, single-day inflows are only tens of millions, showing a clear weakening of buying power.
2. Ethereum ETF: Previously had continuous inflows, but on September 29, it shifted to a slight net outflow of 2.81 million USD. The outflow amount is small, but the signal is strong: institutions have started to realize some profits on ETH, causing capital differentiation.
3. Phenomenon: Previously, BTC and ETH ETFs were bought simultaneously; now they have diverged—institutions prefer BTC more, while ETH faces slight reduction in holdings.
Reasons for the divergence
1. With tonight's non-farm payroll data approaching, institutions choose to lock in some profits early, reduce position risk, and avoid aggressively increasing holdings, playing cautiously against data uncertainty.
2. ETH is more elastic, rising more during upswings. When risks come, institutions prioritize realizing ETH profits and keep BTC as a base position for hedging, which is a common institutional practice.
Implications for the market
✅ Positive: BTC has not turned into large-scale net outflows; institutional base holdings remain, no collective bearish exit, and there is capital support. The conditions for a major crash are not present for now.
⚠️ Negative signal: Incremental buying has stopped, lacking new capital inflows, making it difficult to sustain a strong unilateral rally. The rise depends on tonight's non-farm data as a catalyst.
ETH is weaker than BTC: In terms of capital, BTC is stronger than ETH in the short term. If a rebound occurs, ETH's explosive power will be dragged down by ETF outflows; if a decline happens, ETH will fall more sharply.
Views combined with tonight's non-farm payroll data
1. If tonight's non-farm data is weak (bullish):
BTC will have ETF base holdings supporting a steadier rebound; ETH will rebound but with less gain than before due to ETF outflows.
2. If non-farm data is very strong (bearish):
Capital differentiation will amplify the decline; ETH will be under more pressure than BTC, and institutions will continue selling ETH.
3. If non-farm data is neutral and meets expectations:
Likely to maintain consolidation; ETF funds will continue to watch and wait, with limited room for both upside and downside.
$BTC $ETH
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 10.2｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: mainly short at pre-nonfarm highs, no chasing longs without incremental positive news.
$BTC is currently around 84800. After PCE came in below expectations, it surged to 85600 but was pushed back the same day. Yesterday it slowly climbed from 83100 to 85200, then stalled just below the previous high. The issue isn't the candlestick itself, but after dropping from 87300, 85600 has become a visible resistance. Funding rates remain slightly positive, longs are still accumulating, yet the price can't hold. In this situation, if the nonfarm payrolls come in strong, it’s very likely to sweep lower again.
$ETH is now around 2700, moving in sync with BTC, also briefly spiked near 2710 but failed to hold.
The real variable tonight is the nonfarm payrolls. Market expectations are roughly 80,000 to 90,000 jobs added, with an unemployment rate around 4.1%. If new jobs significantly exceed expectations and wages heat up, rate hike expectations will re-intensify, and BTC could retest 83100 or even drop to 82000.
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 85200-86000, target around 83100-82000.
ETH: Short between 2720-2760, target around 2650-2580.
If BTC breaks above 87300 with volume, all shorts are invalidated; never stubbornly fight the trend.
What do you think will happen after the nonfarm data? Will BTC first drop to 82000 or break through 85600 directly? Let's discuss in the comments.Ethereum spot ETF has seen seven consecutive days of inflows but has now suffered three straight days of net outflows, with about 13.89 million net outflow on October 1st. I'm observing first and not chasing.
Noticed: The previous week had a total of about 850 million inflows over seven days, which was a fairly decent institutional buying wave this year.
Then on September 29th, there was a net outflow of about 2.8 million, on the 30th about 59.6 million was dumped (Fidelity's FETH led with about 26.6 million), and on October 1st another 13.89 million outflow, marking three consecutive days of losses.
Current Ethereum price is around 2700, with a 24-hour high of about 2722 and low of about 2673; price is still hovering above 2700, but institutional money has been flowing out for three days straight.
Simply put: The seven-day inflow was a climax replay, continuous net outflows are the current subtitle; don’t mistake price stability as institutions still adding positions.
I think we shouldn’t treat the "Ethereum ETF narrative" as a belief; money leaving speaks louder than slogans. Short term, I’m just observing and not chasing.
If it fails, watch for a break below about 2668 near the low to continue down, or wait for a candle to firmly stand above about 2722 before considering chasing.
Are you waiting for funds to turn positive again before acting, or do you think stable price is enough to get in directly?
$ETH $BTC $ETHA
#BitcoinETF has had nine consecutive days of inflows, ETH turns to outflows #InterestRateHike##ExpectationsDelayed, September Nonfarm becomes next focusRaoul Pal gave a good example of an industrial law: China added more solar power capacity last year than the total cumulative capacity installed worldwide in history.
He said this is Wright's Law in action — every time cumulative production doubles, the unit cost drops by a fixed proportion; solar power has been on this curve for decades, and China just poured scale into it.
Why does the crypto community love to talk about this?
Because "technology with costs that decrease exponentially with scale" is the underlying template of the crypto narrative — computing power, bandwidth, and storage have all followed similar paths. Understanding Wright's Law means understanding why many technologies are "expensive now, cheaper later" is not a coincidence but a rule.
But be aware of its boundaries: Wright's Law applies to "replicable, scalable" manufactured goods and does not apply to non-replicable assets (such as Bitcoin's scarcity). Misapplying this law leads to misunderstandings like "costs go down, so coin prices must also go down."Today I must do a deep self-reflection.
Although the overall account is still profitable, the polarization in the positions
has given me a harsh lesson. $BTC and $SOL are working hard to make money, while $ZEC is bleeding heavily.
$BTC (The Anchor)
Opening price 84044.47, current price 84610.00.
Full position 20X, unrealized profit 335.64U, ROI 13.37%.
BTC remains the hope of the whole community. Steadily climbing, profits gradually expanding. Without this ballast order, my account would look very bad today.
$SOL (Tactical Warrior)
Opening price 117.41, current price 118.7012.
Isolated margin 20X, unrealized profit 47.03U, ROI 21.74%.
This order once again proves the importance of "position isolation"! I specifically used isolated margin to test the waters, and now it has fully exploded.
$ZEC (A Bloody Lesson)
Opening price 1403.02, current price 1329.54.
Full position 20X, unrealized loss 54.37U, ROI -110.53%!
Yes, you read that right, the loss rate exceeds 100%. This means the margin for this order has been completely wiped out, the liquidation price shows as "--", and it is devouring the profits earned by BTC and SOL in my full account.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 SOL's shortfall is not just over two units, but the confidence after returning to 120
$SOL needs to rise about 2.2% to get back to 120. This distance is not far; the challenge is whether it can hold after returning. Use 120 as an integer observation line first. I will break the confirmation into three steps: closing above it on the hourly chart, a pullback without losing it, and then an attack surpassing the previous high before the pullback. A 2.24% drop in the past seven days and an 18% rise in the past thirty days reflect recent weakness alongside longer-term gains. Short-term judgments should adjust according to actual highs and lows, not assume that every pullback will be bought just because the monthly performance looks good.
$ETH This time, focus on the duration of the stay after the breakout. 2700 can be treated as a nearby observation level. If it is subsequently surpassed and several consecutive hourly candles close above it, with pullback ranges gradually shrinking, this is more valuable than a sudden spike. Another scenario is a sudden surge in volume while the price fails to push far; in this case, watch if sell orders continuously suppress the upward move. Wait for the close before assessing sustainability.
$OKB I pay more attention to whether price and volume move in sync. If volume continues to increase during subsequent rises and decreases during pullbacks, while the previous pullback low remains intact, this is a combination worth tracking; if the price barely rises and then a large-volume bearish candle swallows several previous gains, the original continuation judgment should be downgraded. Observe on a fixed hourly timeframe; don’t mistake a sharp five-minute rally for a four-hour trend reversal. The purpose of technical analysis is to know which step failed, not to give every fluctuation a pleasant name.🔥"Big Cake $BTC hides in the mountaintop signal room, Second Cake $ETH strategizes in the service area, $SOL has the tour guide completely confused"
State of travel on the first day of National Day:
🟠 $BTC: Booked the homestay with the best mountaintop signal, the house number reads 84,000. No hiking, no crowded cable cars, just reclining chairs watching the sea of clouds, like watching a sideways market. ETF net buys continue, meaning the boss has prepaid next year's lodging fees. It's not in a hurry, "traffic jams are others' problem, I'm responsible for stability."
🔵 $ETH: Spread out the map at the service area, circled the RWA market, L2 cable car, and staking hot spring. Price pacing around 2700, like a tour guide waving a flag shouting "departing soon" until hoarse. ETF small outflow, just canceling a joint ticket, the main line hasn't changed, it's just that the companions always want to fast-forward for it.
🟢 $SOL: Just entered the mountain and the navigation shouted out of battery, chasing squirrels, grabbing sightseeing cars, and mistakenly entering the rafting entrance. Fluctuating around 120 USD, volatility denser than National Day queues. On-chain activity is like the whole scenic area is refreshing it; if you're in the same group, don't ask about the itinerary, just "run first, pick up shoes later."
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Brothers, I really can't hold on anymore, I can't even gather the margin to open a position, can only watch helplessly as the market makers perform.
Let's talk about BTC first, it's grinding back and forth between 83,000 and 84,000, with heavy resistance at 85,600 above and the last bottom line at 82,500 below. The funding rate is slightly positive, the long-short ratio is 51:49, a typical range-bound market. The US Treasury yields are still suppressing it, and ETFs are being stingy. I judge that the longer the sideways consolidation lasts, the more violent the breakout will be, most likely first a spike up to trigger shorts, then a retrace to shake out longs.
ETH is even more torturous, stuck stubbornly below 2,700. It was just reported that an ancient giant whale moved 133,000 ETH (worth $356 million), with a cost basis of only $0.31. Who can withstand a dump like that? 2,630 is the intraday support, and if 2,570 breaks, the trend is over. Right now, the whole market is propped up purely by sentiment.
I dare not touch this crazy dog ZEC, it’s been smashed from 1,500 down to around 1,400. The previous doubling rally exhausted the bulls' momentum, but on-chain whales are still slowly withdrawing from Binance and accumulating. Retail investors just become fuel for the whales; I’ve definitely been taught a lesson by this coin.
All three coins are grinding now, with no funds to invest, I can only watch helplessly and wait for a clear direction.
Brothers, do you think BTC will go to 85,000 or break below 82,500? Let's chat in the comments.👇
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Term Structure Radar
$SOL shows coexistence of premiums and discounts across different maturities: near/medium/far marked basis points are +0.1%/-0.61%/+0.5%. The basis conditions for buying spot and selling contracts change with the expiration date, with discounted maturities corresponding to negative price spreads under the marked criteria.ZEC really turned out to be a "lonely gain" this time, sold off again and again! 😂
Yesterday, watching the market trend, I took a short position on ZEC at 1,390.8 and thought it was about time to lock in profits (realized return +168.23%, pocketed 167.64U).
But this morning when I opened the market, wow, the lowest price went straight down to 1,305!
Watching the price race downwards while my hands were empty, tears of frustration fell from me at this moment...
Trader's pain:
• Those who understand, understand — the profit was indeed taken, but seeing the further drop, it feels like missing out on a fortune.
• Indeed, holding onto a position is a hundred times harder than opening a good one!
How do you usually comfort yourself when you sell too early? Share your "healing tips" in the comments below! 👇Robinhood ($HOOD) has launched an "AI-powered trading agent," allowing users to build and automate their own trading strategies.
The significance here lies in "who is doing it"—Robinhood is the main entry point for retail investors in the U.S. stock market, and its user base is precisely the group most easily attracted to "automation" and also the most likely to underestimate risks. Entrusting strategy building and execution to an AI agent lowers the barrier to entry, but blurs the boundaries of responsibility.
Looking at this alongside the previous mentions of Delphi and Raoul, "AI agent trading" is transitioning from a concept to a retail product. The key issue here is not whether the technology can do it, but:
When strategies are executed automatically by AI and losses occur automatically, can users clearly explain "why this loss happened"? If they cannot, then it’s not investing, it’s handing money over to a black box. Launching the feature is one thing; whether users understand what they have authorized is another.An easily overlooked development:
The "Clarity Act" at the congressional level failed in the Senate two weeks ago, but the SEC and CFTC have not stopped; instead, each is pushing forward its own "Clarity Act."
Two actions have been observed:
The SEC has granted a temporary exemption allowing stocks to trade on-chain 24/7; the CFTC has submitted its crypto market rules to the White House for review.
The most worth pondering here is the path of "if legislation fails, rely on regulatory agencies to issue rules themselves." Compared to congressional legislation, regulatory agency rules are faster and more flexible but also less stable—changing administrations may shift directions. For the industry, this is a double-edged sword: rapid progress in the short term but lacking legal-level certainty in the long term.
The real signal is that these two agencies are "acting simultaneously":
One regulates securities, the other commodities; both are starting to carve out lanes for crypto, indicating that the default attitude of U.S. regulation is shifting from "ambiguous delay" to "proactive rule-setting." $BTC Non-farm payrolls tonight.
Yesterday it was still hovering around 83,500, now it has pushed up to 85,000, touched it briefly and pulled back, but 85,000 feels like a resistance level with no volume, everyone is waiting. I still don't believe it can break through directly if employment data heats up tonight.
Mainstream altcoins currently have little volume and neither follow the rise nor the fall.
If the non-farm payrolls heat up again, I bet it will first drop back to around 82,000; if it shows clear weakness, then there is a chance to test 85,000 to 86,000 again. Current price is around 84,700, don't chase highs before tonight, be patient and wait.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #For two consecutive days, XDP has been rebounding for profit before sleep, only to return it upon waking up. If it weren't for the previous wave of profits cushioning me, I'd be extremely anxious. On the other hand, the temporarily opened CT position hedged 800u. If I had known earlier, I should have closed the position at the high point and switched to CT. If that had happened, the profit would probably have been running by now $XDP $CT 🫥$BTC: APPROACHING $85K, BUYERS ARE REGAINING CONTROL BTC bounced from $83.2K to nearly $84.7K, improving the short-term structure. Key zone: $85K–$85.5K. If a breakout occurs with strong volume, the next target is $87K–$87.5K, further up to $90K. Important support: $83K. Holding this zone means BTC is still accumulating at a high level. Yesterday's BTC ETF recorded about $149M outflow, ending a 9-session inflow streak totaling around $3.1B. The return of capital flow will be a notable signal. $85.5K is currently a critical short-term boundary $BTC current price is 84506.6, after surging to 85236 it immediately turned down, with the 15-minute indicators weakening rapidly.
I'm your uncle, still holding a small long position, but the market signals are no longer as optimistic as before.
The previous rally was entirely supported by continuous ETF fund inflows holding up the market. Many people in the market were shouting it would go straight to 90,000, but as it approached the previous high, selling pressure immediately appeared. Now the CPI is about to be released, and the market is anxiously awaiting inflation data; no one dares to blindly push it higher.
Market sentiment is very divided now: on one side, institutions are still accumulating, while on the other, short-term funds are frantically taking profits at high levels. The 15-minute RSI has dropped directly to around 26, entering oversold territory in the short term, offering a chance for a small rebound due to game theory, but a rebound does not mean a new round of rally has started.
The first resistance above is at 84800, with strong resistance at 85200; the key short-term support is at 84000. Once it breaks down effectively, it will test the 83100 support level.
A reminder: at this point, do not stubbornly hold long or short positions. If inflation data exceeds expectations, even the best-looking uptrend will be directly interrupted. This is the game phase before the data release; positions must be controlled, and don’t let the previous rally cloud your judgment by mistaking the rebound for a one-sided bull market.
#BTC surges then falls, entering a game window before CPI
#ETF funds support the bottom but short-term selling pressure increases
#Beware of large fluctuations caused by inflation data
Market observation only, not investment advice