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822 empty, finally got a bit of blood back.
$ZEC current price 1105.
Smashed down from 1299.
A few days ago when it surged,
I didn't even dare to open my phone.
Floating loss of over 400 dollars,
hanging on the screen, glaring.
Grayscale's 500 million ETF,
It was revealed that 100 million was taken by DCG insiders.
Whale's 3848 long positions,
4.33 million U exploded cleanly last night.
PPI exploded, oil price broke 105,
all smashing the market.
Today it dropped to 1053,
bounced back to 1105.
Floating loss shrank from 400 to 280.
No cutting losses, no adding.
Just waiting for it to keep going down. Empty promises, and it has to be Trump.
He says that as long as the Republicans win the midterm elections,
he will give every American $5,000.
$5,000 per person, totaling $1.2 trillion.
Such a huge amount of money, and with just a mouth, it's all just bluffing.
Where will the money come from? Tariffs?
Don't be ridiculous, the money from tariffs can't even fill this hole.
In the end, it will only be raising taxes or continuing to borrow money.
Trump himself can't possibly come up with $1.2 trillion.
America is really rich, now even giving out money relies on borrowing.
And it's timed right at the midterm elections.
You could say it's welfare,
or you could say it's buying votes.
The US government is getting more and more used to one thing: economy not doing well? Give out money.
Market lacks liquidity? Borrow money. Too much debt? Keep borrowing.
It's quite smooth, just pushing the immediate problem forward.
After Biden gave out money that time, Bitcoin purchases did see a noticeable increase.
So if this money really gets distributed this time, will some of it flow into BTC again? I think it's possible.
Giving out money isn't necessarily good news,
throwing in $1.2 trillion, if consumption picks up, inflation might rise too.
If inflation rises, the Federal Reserve might not dare to cut interest rates.
Then BTC might get hit first.
So giving out money doesn't mean BTC will definitely rise.
The key is how this money finally enters the market.
Does it go into supermarkets? The stock market? Gold?
Or does it eventually flow into Bitcoin?
Do you think Trump can really give out this $5,000? Account Position Divergence Radar
No matter how many accounts are on the same side, you still need to see how much the top positions are actually pressing.
$DOGE shows a bullish reading for both the overall and top accounts, but the top position size is actually bearish, with the two metrics still conflicting. The decline accompanied by a drop in OI mainly reflects old positions exiting rather than new positions continuing to push prices down. Going forward, stop counting accounts and directly monitor whether the top position weight is repairing toward the bullish side.
$SUI has different accounts on opposite sides; for now, treat this as divergence without amplifying any particular proportion. The decline has not led to position expansion; first, watch when the risk exposure contraction slows. Before the divergence closes, wait for the equivalent positions to show a clear response.
$PEPE accounts uniformly lean bullish, but the top position ratio remains below 1, meaning the numerical advantage has not translated into a top position advantage. Price and positions are both declining, making the position retreat more certain than directional attribution. There are already enough bullish accounts; what will truly narrow the divergence is the top position ratio returning above 1. ECB's Mahlouf: Large rate hikes could harm eurozone economic growth
ECB Governing Council member Mahlouf expressed the view, warning that further large rate hikes could damage eurozone economic growth. Currently, eurozone inflation is rising again due to energy price disturbances, with inflation rebounding to 3.3% in August, but the economic recovery itself remains fragile. The ECB is caught in a dilemma between fighting inflation and supporting growth.
Mahlouf's statement represents one faction within the ECB: although inflation has not yet fallen to the 2% target and further tightening is necessary, aggressive large rate hikes should be avoided. If rate increases are too steep, they will raise corporate financing costs and suppress consumer spending, putting significant pressure on the already weak eurozone economy and even increasing recession risks.
Current eurozone inflation is largely driven by supply-side pressures from energy supply shocks related to Middle East geopolitics, not by overheated demand. Continued aggressive rate hikes are unlikely to quickly resolve energy-driven inflation and will instead excessively suppress the real economy.
At the macro level, ECB policy choices will affect the euro-to-dollar exchange rate and European bond market performance. If the ECB slows the pace of rate hikes, it will indirectly impact global liquidity conditions. Compared to the Federal Reserve, divergence in monetary policy pace between the two sides will disrupt global cross-border capital flows.#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Don't rush to take SNDK's "still stable" status as a signal of a recovery in risk appetite; it's more like a localized test that hasn't spread out. If you haven't even gained a small position, is this wave just the market giving you an opportunity, or just luck for a few? Watching this segment of the market gives me a rather subtle feeling. SNDK isn't bad, but not big enough to be reassuring; On the other hand, SKHYNIX, relying on SanDisk and Hynix, has already generated profits in the tens of millions on paper. The problem lies here—the profit-making effect hasn't spread and is stuck in a very narrow corner. This month's account curve has fluctuated back and forth, trying to grab a trend position, but never finding a clean opportunity, so I simply watched a few excellent traders do it—whoever is lucky will be the first to emerge. In crypto, this situation translates as: risk appetite hasn't risen overall, just briefly emerging in individual narratives. If BTC and ETH don't provide direction in parallel, altcoins will struggle to upgrade from "individual probing" to "sector resonance." SNDK's stability means some people are willing to buy; But no volume and spread means more people are still waiting for confirmation. Under the lens of capital preference, this isn't a full-scale attack but a small team scouting first. There are also bullish paths: once the profit effects of Hynix are seen by more people, storage, hashrate, and AI narratives may be re-traded, and ETH and some high-beta altcoins will gain an emotional premium. But the risk is that this narrow profit effect is most likely to be mistaken for a comprehensive recovery, resulting in BTC shaking and copycats$MET hits a new high again at 0.257. Altcoins are rising one after another.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Risks must also be clearly stated. The Fear and Greed Index has already reached 70, placing it in the "Greed" zone. Historically, this level often accompanies a short-term pullback. Moreover, ETF inflows are highly concentrated in BlackRock alone; once IBIT turns to outflows, the entire category could shift to net outflows in a single day. Whether the $80,000 threshold can hold will be clear in the next two weeks.
Finally, a heartfelt word: Bitcoin has never risen on sentiment alone. Every real market cycle is driven by the triple resonance of interest rate cycles, capital flows, and market structure. The quality of this rebound is higher than many think. But whether it turns from a rebound into a reversal ultimately depends on the macro environment and regulatory implementation. Position management is always the top priority—don’t get carried away. $BTC $ZEC $ETH #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% #BTC现货ETF连续流出 Everyone should be watching tonight's CPI data. This time, it's not just about whether there will be a rate hike in September; $BTC, $XAU, $XAG, and crude oil will most likely have to choose a new direction.
The key point is whether inflation will rebound.
Previously, PPI was already strong, and rising energy prices have added new pressure to inflation.
Market expectations for a September rate hike have clearly heated up, with#OutcomesOnOrbit #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows The probability of the CLARITY Act passing has dropped from 82% to 17%!
In February this year, prediction markets gave the CLARITY Act an 82% chance of passing. Now Kalshi gives 17%, Polymarket about 20%, and Galaxy Digital directly gives 10%.
How did the expectations disappear? Looking at the money is more direct: the monthly net inflow of the US spot $XRP ETF was $132 million in May, $59.46 million in June, and only $27.29 million in July—a 79% drop.
The bill itself is also stuck. On September 15, the Senate will hold a procedural vote requiring 60 votes; the Republicans have only 53 seats, needing 7 Democrats to defect, but the plan hasn't come together.
Today $XRP fell 3.63%, currently priced at 1.3427, having broken below the MA20 (1.405), with the 20-day low of 1.31 just below. It has dropped 66.8% from the July 2025 high of 3.65.
Judgment: XRP's legal shield is a district court ruling, not statutory law. If the bill doesn't pass, this shield can be challenged again at any time. September 15 is the first critical point.The Russian Central Bank stated: In recent months, domestic prices have been significantly affected by highly volatile factors such as motor vehicle fuel.
Due to attacks on refining facilities, domestic gasoline and diesel prices in Russia have surged sharply, directly pushing up the CPI and, through logistics costs, transmitting to various goods, raising inflation expectations.
The Central Bank considers this a temporary supply-side shock, with core inflation still controllable, thus maintaining a moderate rate cut, but sustained high fuel prices will limit the room for rate cuts. #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 The Central Bank of Russia pointed out that in recent months, domestic price trends have been significantly affected by highly volatile factors such as motor vehicle fuel. Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, domestic refining facilities have been attacked, causing disruptions in fuel supply, with noticeable increases in gasoline and diesel prices, directly pushing up domestic inflation readings.
Fuel price increases have a dual transmission effect. On one hand, they directly raise residents' travel costs; on the other hand, through logistics and transportation costs, they indirectly transmit to the prices of a large number of goods and services such as food and industrial products, boosting inflation expectations across society and creating a secondary inflation effect. The central bank judges that the fuel-driven impact is a supply-side shock, not caused by overheating domestic demand, and core inflation remains overall within a controllable range.
Disturbed by fuel price increases, the Central Bank of Russia has raised its full-year inflation forecast while tightening the pace of interest rate cuts. Although it still maintains rate cut operations, the easing space has narrowed, and it is necessary to observe whether the fuel market can stabilize to prevent cost pressures from spreading to more categories of prices.
Looking globally, domestic fuel volatility in Russia is interconnected with international crude oil and refined oil markets. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt energy supply, which will keep affecting global refined oil prices, indirectly influencing inflation expectations in Europe and the US, impacting US Treasury yields, and thereby affecting risk appetite in the crypto market. Going forward, key focus will be on tracking damage to Russian refining facilities, domestic fuel price trends, and the linked changes in international crude oil and diesel. #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 Oracle's AI cloud revenue surged 121%, but the biggest highlight of this earnings report is not just growth, it's the orders.
This quarter, cloud infrastructure revenue reached $7.4 billion, up 121% year-over-year; total cloud revenue was $11.6 billion, up 62% year-over-year. Even more impressive, new AI cloud contracts exceeded $30 billion, with remaining performance obligations reaching $664 billion.
This indicates that demand for AI computing power remains strong, and Oracle is accelerating its transformation from a traditional database company to an AI cloud infrastructure company.
Of course, the risks are also clear. The faster AI cloud grows, the greater the investment in data centers and computing power, and the massive capital expenditures will test cash flow.
So the focus going forward is on three things: whether cloud revenue can continue to grow rapidly, whether the $664 billion in orders can be continuously fulfilled, and whether the huge investments can ultimately convert into cash flow.
The 121% growth is just the surface; what really matters is whether Oracle can turn AI orders into long-term profits. $SOL fell below 100, and market sentiment has clearly cooled down.
But the funding situation is not that pessimistic; recently, there is still capital inflow into the SOL spot ETF, and institutional funds have not significantly withdrawn.
Tonight's US CPI is another variable; yesterday's PPI year-on-year has already risen to 5.4%. If the CPI continues to exceed expectations, short-term pressure on SOL may persist; if inflation does not further heat up, market sentiment might ease a bit.
Prices are falling, but funds have not completely exited, and this divergence is worth continued observation.Tonight's ultimate CPI forecast! The most authentic market logic across the entire network!
Attention everyone! The ultimate test deciding the short-term bull or bear market this round officially lands tonight!
The repeated fluctuations and spikes in the past few days were all early fund maneuvers and sentiment warming up, while the real anchor is the US August CPI data, which will directly determine the short-term fate of the crypto market tonight 🔥
My forecast: The core CPI tonight is very likely to be strong, inflation stickiness still exists, the probability of a dollar bearish impact is low, and the market will continue to price in rate hike risks.
Strong reasons:
1. Yesterday's PPI has already rebounded, oil prices continue to surge, upstream cost pressures have transmitted to the consumer side, laying upward pressure on CPI.
2. Market consensus expects core CPI month-over-month at 0.2%, but inflation risks from rising energy prices may bring unexpected upward risks.
3. The Fed is currently closely watching core inflation; as long as core data does not cool down, expectations for a September rate hike will be hard to completely fade.
Simply put:
Persistent inflation → rate hike expectations hard to cool → high US Treasury yields → crypto market liquidity under pressure!
Coin-specific impacts
$BTC: The market's ballast stone, bullish for resistance, bearish but still most resistant, a barometer for market strength.
$ETH: More elastic than BTC, will have more advantage under easing expectations; but if inflation exceeds expectations, the correction will also be greater than BTC.
$SOL: The hardest hit by leverage, extremely explosive when bullish, but the most severe stampede when bearish, volatility will be maximized!
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Trump's Statement on His First Day in Office: OECD Global Tax Reform Agreement Has No Effect in the U.S.
On his first day in office, Trump clearly stated that the OECD global tax reform agreement reached during the Biden administration has no legal effect in the United States. This agreement, known as the global 15% minimum corporate tax "two-pillar" plan, was originally promoted by the Biden administration and involved nearly 140 countries in negotiations. Its purpose is to curb the erosion of the tax base by multinational corporations and to prevent a race to the bottom in tax cuts among countries.
The core position of the Trump administration: diplomatic commitments do not equate to domestic law. For the agreement to be implemented, it must be legislated by the U.S. Congress; the executive branch has no authority to unilaterally enforce this international agreement. The U.S. will abandon this set of rules under the OECD framework and instead continue to use its existing tax system, no longer cooperating with the global unified minimum tax enforcement standards.
This move will cause a split in global tax governance. The European Union and some developed countries have already implemented the global minimum tax rules, but the U.S. will not follow suit. This will expand the tax planning space for multinational corporations again, significantly increasing the difficulty of international tax coordination. Future trade and tariff confrontations cannot be ruled out.
At the macro level, the U.S. withdrawal from global tax reform will increase fiscal deficit pressure, exacerbate U.S. debt supply pressure, indirectly push up U.S. Treasury yields, and cause disturbances to global risk assets.
Transmission to the crypto market: fragmentation of global tax rules will affect the compliance costs of multinational institutions and crypto enterprises. On one hand, the tax uncertainty for some overseas crypto institutions will rise #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 CPI will be announced tonight. There are currently a few unfavorable signals in the market, but there's no need to panic too much, after all, Bitcoin and Ethereum have bounced back again today.
Brent crude oil has broken through $100, reaching a high of 101.76. If the Middle East situation continues to escalate, inflationary pressure will be difficult to ease quickly.
US Treasury bonds are also uncomfortable; the 10-year yield surged to 4.86%, and the 30-year yield once hit 5.30%. Even a $6 billion buyback couldn't stabilize the bond market.
The US stock market has fallen for three consecutive days, but funds haven't completely fled. AI and semiconductors remain strong. SK Hynix even hit a new high since its US listing, and SanDisk is slowly recovering, indicating that funds are managing risk rather than fully withdrawing.
Looking at $BTC, it’s consolidating around 78,000, with resistance still at 80,000–82,000. Below, watch 75,233 first. ETFs have had continuous outflows, and volume hasn't significantly increased, so the bulls are indeed starting to pull back.
Therefore, I won’t make any early guesses tonight. If core CPI month-over-month is ≥0.3%, BTC might directly test support around 75,000–76,000.
$ETH is the same; it has been very strong this round, rebounding quickly. If the news is good, it feels like this wave can reach 2600 without issue. Ethereum is definitely the brightest star in this bull market!
My approach remains the same: no new positions before the data is released, and after the announcement, let the market digest it for an hour. Better to miss some gains than to risk principal betting on a number. 29,000 $BTC options settle today, with a notional value of $2.24 billion and a max pain point at 78,000. This figure is below the current price, indicating that market makers' hedging bias is bearish.
The Put Call Ratio is only 0.6, with clearly more call contracts. But the max pain point is below the current price, meaning the closer the price gets to 78,000, the less the sellers pay out. A more likely explanation is that after rising to 80,000, more people bought calls, and sellers suppressed the upside during hedging.
What really deserves attention is not the settlement itself, but the slight rise in monthly IV during the three weeks of sideways movement. Sideways movement with rising IV usually indicates someone is paying premiums in advance for a directional breakout, rather than simply collecting rent.
If next week IV continues to rise while the price remains stuck near 80,000, then this round of buying looks more like hedging than betting. This chain currently lacks one piece of evidence: who is buying.
#BTC现货ETF连续流出
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ $BTC The commander of the United States Central Command visited Saudi Arabia on Thursday to conduct an urgent regional security coordination meeting. The situation in Yemen has remained tense recently, with the Houthi forces continuously advancing and approaching the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping route. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly called on the U.S. to intervene militarily, but the U.S. has clearly stated it will not directly attack the Houthis militarily, only providing intelligence and other non-kinetic support.
The core purpose of this visit is to discuss the security of shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait with Saudi Arabia, coordinate regional defense, and prevent further spillover of the conflict. Currently, the two major energy corridors in the Middle East are under simultaneous pressure, with both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait facing risks of shipping disruptions. If these routes are blocked, it will directly impact global crude oil supply expectations and disturb oil price trends.
The market needs to closely watch the subsequent developments: if both sides reach a conflict control agreement, the geopolitical risk premium will decline, and oil prices will have room to adjust downward; if the situation continues to deteriorate, energy supply risks will rise again, pushing inflation expectations higher and forcing the market to reprice the probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Transmitted to the crypto market, Middle East geopolitics is an important external variable. A rebound in oil prices will raise inflation concerns, push up U.S. Treasury yields, and suppress risk assets like BTC; conversely, if the situation eases and oil prices fall, it will relieve macro-level pressures. Continued tracking of the U.S.-Saudi talks, Red Sea shipping conditions, crude oil and diesel price fluctuations, and next week's Federal Reserve meeting is essential. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 Kiev Attacked: Russian Forces Strike City Gas Stations, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Continues to Disrupt Energy Expectations
Kiev Mayor Klitschko reported that Russian forces attacked multiple gas stations in the Dnipro and Obolon districts of Kiev, resulting in 2 deaths and 8 injuries. The Russian side has not yet responded.
The target of this attack was the city's civilian fuel infrastructure, highlighting once again the ongoing energy disruption risks caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although this attack targeted gas stations within Ukraine rather than directly hitting major crude oil production areas, the market will reprice the tail risk of conflict escalation. Currently, global refined oil products are already in tight supply, with diesel prices remaining high, and geopolitical events easily trigger short-term oil price sentiment fluctuations.
At the macro level, repeated geopolitical tensions will continue to disturb market assessments of energy inflation. If the conflict further spreads, there is a possibility of pushing crude oil and refined product prices higher again, which would raise market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, suppress U.S. Treasury yields, and put pressure on risk assets.
From the perspective of the crypto market, the recurring Russia-Ukraine situation will amplify market risk aversion sentiment. If oil prices rebound again and inflation concerns return, it will increase redemption pressure on BTC spot ETFs and suppress the crypto market. However, it is important to distinguish that a single localized attack is unlikely to change the overall trend and will mostly cause short-term volatility. The key focus going forward is whether the conflict further spills over, whether crude oil and diesel prices show abnormal movements, and the outcomes of tonight's CPI and next week's Federal Reserve meeting. #OKX百万规划师 #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 Bitcoin ETFs have been draining funds for three consecutive days
Adding up to nearly $450 million
Ethereum ETFs also saw a net outflow of about $29.76 million yesterday
Licensed coins are sold off first by institutions
Like hanging a suit back in the closet
People are already preparing to exit, while Dogecoin is still jumping on the spot market in Europe and the US
Without that thick and respectable ETF pipe
So is it more attractive this time?
On paper, it doesn't look like it
It fell from around 0.10 to about 0.084
PPI came out and continued to push it down
It wasn't sold off by institutions redeeming shares
It was also dragged down by overall market sentiment
No license doesn't mean a safe haven
It just means there's no high-speed highway for institutional inflows and outflows. The contrast is very clear
$BTC and $ETH are licensed assets
Money can flow in and out from pension accounts
When it flows out, the numbers look good but are also scary
DOGE is a retail night market
The pipe is thin
The market is fragmented
Rises rely on loud voices
Falls rely on quick legs
Institutions are selling licensed coins
Retail investors may not necessarily treat unlicensed coins as substitutes
Substitutes need independent buyers
What we see now looks more like a joint sell-off
ETFs are draining compliance warehouses
Europe and the US are draining sentiment warehouses
Two pipes leaking at the same time
Dogecoin won't suddenly become attractive just because it didn't enter that big pipe
It just got splashed with cold water in another place. The premise of being more attractive is that someone is willing to buy the spot
Not because the other side is redeeming IBIT
You don't automatically become a safe snack on your sideThe most important signal of today - for the first time since August 19, BTC has entered a sustained downtrend on the 12-hour timeframe. Basic targets: $75,909, $74,439, $72,970. Potential breakdown level - $79,583. HOWEVER, the potential low marks on this same timeframe have not disappeared, and there are already three of them. Therefore, for now, we continue to expect a rebound, the probability of which was suggested yesterday. And then - the plan is to add to the short position if there are no new signals for a rebound or reversal. The price in the current decline has almost reached the "neckline" at p兄弟们，美债这事越来越有意思了。 9月10日，美国财政部把长债回购规模从常规20亿直接提到上限60亿，三倍力度。结果呢？当天实际只回购了51.9亿，连60亿上限都没买满。10年期美债收益率当天反而涨了，一路干到4.94%，盘中触及4.965%，创2023年10月以来最高收盘水平。30年期收益率跳升至5.37%，刷新2007年以来纪录。2年期飙升16个基点至4.59%，2025年4月以来最大单日涨幅。周五亚盘，10年期进一步突破4.97%。 回购加码，收益率不降反升——市场在用脚投票。 Bryn Mawr Trust固定收益主管Jim Barnes说得直白：财政部试图主动降低长端收益率反而令投资者不安，这表明美债市场的压力可能比投资者预想的更严重。贝森特本人辩称国债市场“状态极佳”，把焦虑形容为“无意义的噪音”——但市场不买账。 为什么回购治不了这个病？三个底层结构问题。 第一，回购规模跟债务体量完全不成比例。 60亿的回购，面对的是40万亿美元的国债存量、5.5万亿的20-30年期长债、每周数百亿的新发债规模。南方基金司南投顾的评论一针见血：这不过是“杯水车薪”，反而坐实了长端流动性恶#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction PPI did not cool the market, tonight's CPI is the real directional choice
US August PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year, inflation pressure remains stubborn; more notably, the indicator excluding food, energy, and trade services also rose 0.3% month-on-month.
The market reaction has been very direct: US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and the Fed's September rate hike expectations rose to about 70%.
But PPI has not completely determined the direction, because tonight's 8:30 CPI release is the key. The market currently expects overall CPI to rise about +0.4% month-on-month and about +3.4% year-on-year, with core CPI up about +0.2% month-on-month.
For BTC, the real risk is core CPI again exceeding expectations. That would reinforce the trading logic of "high rates maintained longer or even further hikes," putting secondary pressure on crypto asset valuations.
Conversely, if core inflation is below expectations, the hawkish positions built on PPI might quickly reverse.
So tonight is not simply a bet on CPI being high or low, but a bet on the market's repricing of the next Fed decision.
BTC is now holding around 77,000, the real big volatility may not have started yet. 【CPI Meets Expectations, BTC and ETH Rebound in Sync—A "Boot Drop" Style Sigh of Relief】
Today's CPI released: year-on-year 3.4%, core 2.4%, exactly as expected, a neutral result, neither a surprise nor bearish. The movements of BTC and ETH almost simultaneously confirm this: $BTC dropped first to 76,410 yesterday, $ETH dipped deeply to 2,404.03, then both rebounded together, now back around 77,063 and 2,466 respectively.
This is a typical **"bearish exhaustion" style rebound**—the market had already priced in the concern that "CPI might continue the PPI heat" in the prior decline. When the data actually landed and turned out not so bad, the overly pessimistic sentiment naturally retreated somewhat. The MACD red bars on the two K-lines are both turning green, indicating this is not an isolated rally of a single coin but the whole market breathing a sigh of relief over this "no surprises" data.
But don't rush to interpret this as a trend reversal. Core CPI did not exceed expectations, giving the Fed more room to hold steady, but the overall inflation reading pushed by oil prices remains, and the option of rate hikes is not completely ruled out. The "hawkish PPI, neutral CPI" combination means the final answer awaits the FOMC announcement on September 15-16. For now, this rebound looks more like a breather window for the bulls, not a signal that pressure has been lifted.
DYOR, this is not investment advice.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 WTI crude oil falls below $99, plunging 3.40% intraday
WTI crude oil futures sharply retreated intraday, falling below the $99 mark, with a single-day drop of 3.40%. The war premium caused by geopolitical tensions has clearly been unwound. Previously, due to disturbances in the Middle East situation, oil prices once surged above $100, as the market worried about energy supply disruptions, pushing up inflation expectations and driving U.S. Treasury yields higher.
This round of decline mainly comes from a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, with the market repricing the risks of shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Traders began to sell long crude oil positions. The rapid fall in oil prices will directly ease market concerns about energy-driven inflation, providing room to cool down expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Macroeconomic transmission logic: Falling oil prices marginally reduce imported inflation pressure, which will lower the market's inflation risk premium and help alleviate upward pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury yields. However, it should be noted that oil prices are highly volatile intraday; a short-term decline does not mean inflation risks are completely eliminated. Prices of refined products like diesel remain high, and the stickiness of inflation still needs to be observed.#红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 Bezos spent about $346 million in August, and AMZN has retraced 12% from its peak.
Just saw that chart from Barchart: the red arrow is exactly pinned at the August 3rd top, then it stepped down all the way.
The current price is around 252, a bit softer after hours, roughly giving back a chunk from the previous high.
The market dropped again last night, semiconductors clearly dragging, and no one dares to chase cloud stocks aggressively now.
CPI is coming tonight, so short-term volatility will only increase.
I think this looks more like "insiders running first, sentiment following," not a ready-made bottom signal.
What to do: stay light before CPI; the invalidation condition is simple—CPI clearly cools down, and AMZN rallies with volume back above the previous selling high zone, then we can talk about a reversal.
Before CPI, are you lightly waiting for the data, or have you already treated AMZN as a discounted buy?
$AMZN $SPY $QQQ #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% 🔥 Tonight at 20:30, US August CPI!
This could be the real "make-or-break" moment of the week.
Yesterday's PPI already gave an uncomfortable signal:
Inflation hasn't completely come down.
Plus, oil prices have climbed back above $100,
energy prices are once again transmitting through the entire economy.
My judgment:
📌 CPI most likely around 3.4%
📌 Core CPI most likely around 0.2%
📌 But there is a risk the data could exceed expectations upward.
If core CPI = 0.2%
The market might briefly breathe a sigh of relief,
the dollar and yields would fall,
BTC, ETH, and US stocks would rebound.
But if core CPI = 0.3%
Then it’s a completely different story.
🔥 Inflation heats up again
🔥 Fed's September rate hike expectations rise further
🔥 US Treasury yields could hit 5%
🔥 BTC and US stocks face short-term pressure
It’s even possible to see:
"Data release → BTC spikes instantly → then reverses"
So tonight I won’t blindly chase the first wave.
My baseline scenario:
👉 CPI meets expectations
👉 Market first breathes a sigh of relief
👉 BTC surges short-term
👉 Then funds reprice the "Fed rate hike"
👉 Intense volatility at the highs
What really needs caution is core CPI at 0.3%.
If that number appears tonight,
then the logic of this market cycle may need to be repriced.
See the real outcome tonight at 20:30. 🌙
#BTC #ETH #CPI #Fed #RateHike #Gold #USStocksOil breaks $6, dominating US Treasury pricing more than CPI
From the current market perspective, US CPI data has become a secondary factor for the long-term US Treasury trend. The market expects August CPI to rise 3.4% year-on-year; even if the reading is below expectations, as a lagging indicator, it is difficult to reverse bond traders' pessimistic outlook.
The real driver of market dynamics is diesel prices, with US diesel prices breaking $6 per gallon for the first time in history. Diesel, as a core fuel for logistics and industry, price increases will transmit through the supply chain to the entire industry chain, continuously exerting upward inflationary pressure and becoming the key variable for the market's assessment of the Fed's policy next week.
Interest rate futures show about a two-thirds probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16. There is a key risk here: if the Fed chooses to keep rates unchanged, the market will interpret this as the Fed struggling to suppress inflation, and traders will demand a higher inflation risk premium to hold long-term bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to challenge the 5% threshold. As long as oil prices do not significantly fall, the probability of this scenario will further increase.
Macro transmission to crypto markets: US Treasury yields approaching 5% will raise the risk-free rate, suppressing valuations of BTC and altcoins. Even if CPI misses expectations, as long as energy inflation continues, rate hike expectations will be hard to cool down, and ETF redemption pressure may persist. Only a significant drop in oil prices will ease the upward pressure on long-term Treasuries and provide a breathing window for risk assets. $BTC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
U.S. inflationary pressures are heating up again, and the market's full attention has shifted to tonight's CPI. Before the data release, the crypto market, U.S. stocks, and bond markets are likely to remain highly volatile.
1️⃣ U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations, with energy and commodity prices continuing to push up corporate production costs.
2️⃣ Core PPI increased 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below expectations, indicating that underlying inflation has not yet fully spiraled out of control, but whether companies will ultimately pass these costs on to consumers remains to be seen.
3️⃣ After the data release, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened simultaneously, with the market further pricing in a September rate hike, putting short-term pressure on risk assets.
4️⃣ The European Central Bank has already raised rates by 25 basis points and revised up inflation expectations for 2027–2028; the Middle East situation and energy prices remain variables faced by central banks worldwide.
Tonight's U.S. August CPI will be a key piece before the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision. If CPI continues to exceed expectations, rate hike bets may intensify; if the data cools down, the market may get a chance to breathe. It is currently more suitable to control positions and wait for directional confirmation. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. Over the years in crypto, I have come to understand that risk control is fundamentally different from traditional financial markets. In crypto, correlation risk is often fatal. In traditional stock markets, sector rotation can take days or even weeks, but in crypto, capital switching between different sectors can take only a few hours or even minutes. Even more alarming, in extreme market conditions, the correlation between all altcoins and Bitcoin in crypto can instantly approach 1—in other words, when Bitcoin sneezes, the whole market goes into the ICU. When facing multi-target holdings, I control correlation risk through the following five dimensions: 1. Asset stratification: Reshaping the core of the crypto world—satellite strategy. In crypto, you can't simply apply stock logic. My only evergreen stocks are Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are the steady anchors of the market, with the strongest liquidity and institutional endorsement. My hot stocks are leaders in various emerging sectors, such as AI, Layer 2, MEME, etc. Control logic: I strictly limit the total position in a single track. For example, the underlying BTC+ETH position accounts for 50% as a foundation for resistance to declines; The remaining 50% is allocated to 3-4 popular stocks in different sectors. I never bet all my funds into AI or MEME sectors to avoid losing everything when the overall trend declines. 2. Penetrate underlying logic to avoid pseudo-decentralization. Crypto often emerges$HYPE is accumulating on-chain while the market is dumping; don't mix these two sets of data.
HYPE is around 80 today, down from 89.7, but on-chain activity doesn't show a one-sided sell-off. In the past month, protocol revenue was about $59.84 million, while approximately 775,400 HYPE tokens were burned, equivalent to over $60 million; the aid fund has cumulatively burned around 47.12 million tokens. Most of the fees are used for buyback and burn, genuinely reducing supply.
Whales are more inclined to lock their tokens rather than dump. Address 0x8e48 just bought another 116,400 tokens, about $9.91 million; over eight months, it has accumulated 1.89 million tokens, roughly $159 million, moving through Galaxy, and staking immediately after purchase. Another address, 0x6436, has accumulated 3.24 million tokens, about $252 million, all staked as well. In early September, someone withdrew 97,700 tokens from four exchanges, about $8.25 million, which looks more like moving to self-custody rather than immediate cashing out.
The hedge is unlocking and team redemptions. On September 6, nominally 9.92 million tokens were unlocked, but only about 433,000 were actually withdrawn, moved to exchanges via Flowdesk, consistent with HyperLabs' monthly redemption of staking rewards, not a one-time dump. The next major observation point is September 29, with about 14.2 million tokens nominally to be unlocked. Protocol revenue in the past 7 days has dropped about 13% compared to the previous week; on-chain holders are holding, but on-chain activity is cooling down.今天八月CPI落地 头条同比3.4% 环比0.4% 核心同比2.5% 环比0.2% 四个数字跟华尔街共识一个不差 核心2.5%还是2021年3月以来最慢的读数 按理说这是好消息 通胀确实在凉 结果呢 BTC现在77088 24小时还跌0.21% 日内一度探到76663 ETH报2468 微涨1.12% 在一个通胀数据全面符合预期的日子里 这点涨幅基本等于没反应 这场面特别像你考前把所有重点都押中了 交完卷觉得稳了 结果成绩出来老师说 这本来就是你该做到的 市场早把这个数字吃进价格里了 预期定价就是这么残酷 猜对了没奖励 猜错了才有惩罚 真正压着行情的不是CPI 是三件事叠在一起 一 布伦特原油站上105 PPI同比5.4% 上游那把火还在烧 通胀的源头没熄 二 CME给9月16日加息25个基点的概率大约56% Polymarket报到62% 注意这个词是加息 不是降息 2023年以来头一回 三 美国现货比特币ETF连着三天失血 累计4.495亿美元 昨天一天就跑掉2.826亿 ARKB一家占了1.643亿 钱在用脚投票 但它不是在看空加密 是利率一高 什么都不用干躺着收四点八的东西突然India's Finance Minister expressed views on virtual currency platforms, proposing an important idea: before each country's domestic regulatory stance solidifies and cross-border barriers are established, foreign governments and regulatory agencies should be proactively involved to promote coordinated governance of cross-border crypto assets.
Crypto assets inherently possess cross-border characteristics, and it is difficult for a single country to fully prevent risks such as money laundering and cross-border capital flows by issuing rules alone. The core of the Indian Finance Minister's statement is to advocate for early international cooperation to avoid fragmented regulatory rules and barriers formed by individual countries, which would lead to global regulatory fragmentation.
India has currently implemented a 30% tax on crypto gains and a 1% transaction withholding tax, while also including crypto service providers under anti-money laundering regulatory frameworks. However, the central bank remains cautious about crypto assets, and domestic legislation on crypto regulation is still underway. India has been a major promoter of global crypto regulatory coordination under the G20 framework and has repeatedly called for the establishment of unified international regulatory standards.
From the industry perspective, if a global consensus on coordinated regulation can be reached earlier, it will reduce compliance uncertainties in cross-border transactions; but if countries act independently and build regulatory barriers, compliance costs will rise, and some transactions may move into gray areas.
Regarding the crypto market, global regulatory trends will directly affect institutional capital allocation. If multiple countries accelerate regulatory cooperation, it will facilitate compliant institutional capital entry; if policies diverge, risk appetite will continue to be suppressed. Future focus will track global crypto regulatory progress from the G20 and FSB. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #Red Sea risk expands, $100 oil price reappears
#Red Sea risk expands, $100 oil price reappears
Latest data
Red Sea shipping risks continue to escalate, Brent crude oil stands above the $100 mark, market inflation concerns rapidly intensify, and US Treasury yields rise simultaneously. On the board, $BTC is at 75910, under pressure and continuing to weaken, funds favoring safe havens, most altcoins further contracting.
Market consensus
Bearish view: Oil prices holding above $100 will re-ignite inflation, pushing back Fed rate cut expectations further, and risk assets face short-term adjustment pressure.
Neutral view: The oil price surge caused by geopolitical factors is a pulse event; as long as no larger conflicts follow, the price increase is unlikely to sustain long-term, and after bearish factors are digested, the market will return to its original rhythm.
Underlying logic analysis
The oil price rise itself does not directly suppress the market; the real transmission path is that energy price increases raise inflation expectations, and the market begins to reprice the duration of high interest rates. Tonight's CPI is the core variable determining the short-term direction; geopolitical factors mainly amplify volatility and will not change the big trend.
#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction
$BTC $DOGE $NES
Personal view (personally leaning towards a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Geopolitical news tends to cause sharp rises and falls; do not be led by sudden emotions, continue to control position sizes, and wait for inflation data to land before making arrangements. The European Commission has officially approved a special fund of €6.1 billion for Ukraine's air defense, missile interception, ammunition, drones, and electronic warfare equipment procurement. This fund allows Ukraine to purchase Patriot PAC‑3 interceptor missiles, with procurement exemptions set for U.S.-made equipment, which can be completed through the NATO PURL coordination mechanism. The funding comes from the €90 billion Ukraine support loan.
With this allocation finalized, the €28.3 billion defense support quota for Ukraine in 2026 has been fully allocated. This year, the EU has already disbursed €8.35 billion in defense funds, with more funds to be released gradually. The procurement targets include both EU domestic defense manufacturers and Ukrainian local defense suppliers.
From a macro perspective, ongoing geopolitical conflicts will continue to disrupt global energy and inflation expectations. Europe's increased defense investment in Ukraine will further boost demand for European defense industries while intensifying global risk aversion. If geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, oil prices and inflation expectations will rise, indirectly suppressing risk assets; however, this will also strengthen safe-haven assets like gold, creating a two-way pull on the crypto market. #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 #OKX预言家：Come to the planet to play prediction #Palladium futures surged 2% intraday, quoted at $1321/oz
Palladium futures rose 2% intraday, with the price reaching $1321/oz, showing an independent strong trend within the precious metals sector. Palladium differs significantly from gold and silver in its attributes, dominated by industrial use, with over 80% of demand coming from automotive exhaust catalysts. Its price is influenced by supply disruptions, the automotive industry, and macro interest rates.
The main catalyst for this round of increase comes from supply-side risks. Global palladium production capacity is highly concentrated in Russia and South Africa. Geopolitical conflicts and South Africa's power issues continue to cause supply disruption expectations. The market worries about a contraction in mine output, which supports the price. Meanwhile, palladium's previous performance lagged behind gold and platinum, creating technical momentum for a catch-up rise.
On the macro level, palladium is also constrained by U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index. If inflation data continues to rise and the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, it will suppress palladium, a non-yielding commodity; however, supply concerns caused by geopolitical tensions will offset some of the macro downside.
It is important to note that palladium's volatility is much greater than gold, with industrial logic as the main theme. The increasing penetration of new energy vehicles will long-term suppress palladium's demand ceiling. Short-term trends are more driven by supply disruptions and capital sentiment, lacking the safe-haven properties of gold.
On the macro front, palladium's price movements also correlate with overall precious metals sentiment, indirectly affecting risk appetite in the crypto market.#10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行
"US Treasury Approaches Five Major Thresholds, Interest Bill Unmanageable"
Every day there's talk of rate cuts, yet the 10-year US Treasury yield has soared to 4.96%, on the verge of breaking the 5% mark. Borrowing costs are rising instead of falling, and the anticipated liquidity bonanza has completely fizzled out.
The Treasury's roll-over borrowing can't cover the books anymore; just paying interest daily costs $3.2 billion. The previously bottomed reverse repo pool has been drained from 1.8 trillion to 230 billion, with the buffer basically depleted.
Large sums of money are flocking to safe high-yield options, directly pressuring liquidity in the crypto market. Before a large batch of new US Treasuries enters next week, the market simply can't catch its breath. $BTC #10-year US Treasury yield nears 5% threshold, repo fails to stop yield rise
Just saw some data: the 10-year US Treasury yield has reached 4.95%, just a breath away from 5%.
US August PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year, with energy prices up 4.2%, the main driver. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped directly from 49% to 70%. The 10-year yield surged to 4.95%, and the 30-year yield stood at 5.37%. The Treasury actually repurchased $5.19 billion under the $6 billion cap, but it didn’t stop the long bond from falling. Bassett made it clear that repo operations only improve liquidity of old bonds, are not quantitative easing, and do not reduce deficits or bond issuance demand.
For BTC, the short-term logic is straightforward. As US Treasury yields approach 5%, funding costs rise, weakening the appeal of zero-yield assets. With the rate hike probability rising to 70%, risk appetite is suppressed, and BTC spot has also seen outflows. If CPI again exceeds expectations, BTC may continue to dip near 75,000 in the short term.
But in the medium term, the risk of debt monetization is also increasing. If a 5% yield fails to attract long-term capital to take over, ultimately the Fed or Treasury will have to backstop it, accelerating the erosion of the dollar’s credit. BTC’s narrative as a non-sovereign asset will actually be strengthened in this chain. $BTC $ETH ETH $ZEC #Liquid发布紧急修复，网络进入分阶段恢复 Liquid has resumed block production, but transactions and anchoring remain frozen — this is not a "recovery," but rather "proof of life" for now. The root cause of the $320 million vulnerability was the Elements proof verification cache; the fix addressed the key, not the trust.
Attackers exploited the Elements proof verification cache vulnerability to withdraw about 4,000 BTC (worth $320 million) from the federation wallet. An emergency update, Elements v23.3.4, was released on September 9 to strengthen the range proof cache key. Block production resumed at 10:00 UTC on September 10, but the network is running in a "no transactions" state, and anchoring operations remain suspended. Functional nodes can now properly sign and verify blocks.
Funds recovery status: The attacker claims to be a white hat and returned 3,400 BTC (approximately $270 million) on September 7. As of September 7, about 598.5 BTC (around $46 million) remain unrecovered. The hacker publicly demands a 10% bug bounty, otherwise refusing to return the remaining funds. Adam Back has promised a 1:1 anchoring redemption but has not provided a timeline.
Recovery will proceed in three phases — first block production, then replay of verified transactions, and finally resumption of anchoring. The first two phases are currently undergoing parallel testing. User funds are temporarily safe, but L-BTC liquidity remains frozen. Do not attempt to arbitrage L-BTC discounts at this stage; wait until anchoring is restored before taking action. #10-year US Treasury nears 5% threshold, repo fails to stop yield rise
Just saw some data: the 10-year US Treasury yield has touched 4.95%, just a breath away from 5%.
US August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year, with energy prices up 4.2%, the main driver. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped directly from 49% to 70%. The 10-year yield surged to 4.95%, and the 30-year yield stood at 5.37%. The Treasury actually repurchased $5.19 billion under the $6 billion cap, but it didn’t stop the long bond from falling. Bassett made it clear that repos only improve liquidity of old bonds, they are not quantitative easing and don’t reduce deficits or bond issuance demand.
For BTC, the short-term logic is straightforward. As US Treasury yields approach 5%, funding costs rise, weakening the appeal of interest-free assets. With the rate hike probability rising to 70%, risk appetite is suppressed, and BTC spot has also seen outflows. If CPI again exceeds expectations, BTC may continue to dip near 75,000 in the short term.
But in the medium term, the risk of debt monetization is also increasing. If a 5% yield fails to attract long-term capital to take over, ultimately the Fed or Treasury will have to backstop it, accelerating the erosion of the dollar’s credit. BTC’s narrative as a non-sovereign asset will actually be strengthened in this chain. $BTC $ETH $ZEC It was my first time buying crypto, purely because a colleague led me astray.
That day he treated me to milk tea and kept saying this stuff could turn things around.
I listened and got hyped.
Went home, downloaded the app, studied it for a while, and finally bought a little casually.
After buying, the price dropped, dropped so much I wanted to uninstall.
Two days later it went back up, and I felt confident again.
Really, this market cures all kinds of stubbornness.
Later I learned my lesson and stopped looking at those screenshots of people getting rich in the group.
I only kept two old faces, $BTC and $ETH.
Not because I understand the tech, just felt they were tough.
I also tried altcoins, each story more colorful than the last.
Whitepapers written like ancient scripts, but when it came to execution, nothing happened.
A buddy invested in a new project, smiling on day one.
By day three, the project team went dark, even changed the group name.
Now whenever he mentions it, he waves it off as tuition fees.
I laugh at him, but actually I’ve paid my share too, just never said it.
My current approach is very simple.
Use spare money, buy slowly in several batches.
No borrowing, no all-in, no leverage.
Don’t add drama when it rises, don’t cut losses when it falls.
Just treat it like a fixed deposit that might let you party someday.
I’ve looked at $SOL too, it moves fast and gets a lot of buzz.
But my position is light, afraid my heart can’t take it.
At the end of the day, this thing isn’t an ATM.
It’s more like a demon mirror, showing how greedy or panicked you are.
Some use it to buy cars, others lose sleep over it.
I’ve seen K-lines at 3 a.m., and regrets at 7 a.m.
So don’t listen to anyone shouting trade calls, first ask yourself
if you can still sleep well after losing money.
If you can sleep well, then play; if not, just grab a chair and watch the show.
The money is yours, and so is your life.
Don’t let a few letters jumble your life into a mess. STONK hits a new high again, the top holder's unrealized profit is nearly $10 million, and 79% of the total account assets are in it. This is more worth looking at than the market cap figures.
Currently, the market cap is 249 million, up 44% in 24 hours, reaching 270 million intraday. At the same time, BTC dropped 1.1%, SOL dropped 1.6%. The market isn't lacking risk appetite; it's just that all the risk appetite is concentrated in a single token from a coin issuance platform.
35.7 million STONK tokens are piled up in one address. Whether the unrealized profit is real depends on whether they can sell. If they really want to sell, with this volume against a 249 million market cap, where is the buy support? Maybe it's not that they don't want to exit, but that they can't.
Right now, I just want to watch for the first large sell order from the top holder.US August CPI Preview: Core Inflation Is the Key
The US August CPI is about to be released, with market expectations:
CPI: MoM +0.4%, YoY 3.4%
Core CPI: MoM +0.2%, YoY 2.4%
My judgment is: headline CPI may be slightly high, but core inflation is very likely still controllable.
The rise in oil prices in August may push up overall CPI, but the transmission from energy to goods and services takes time, and the Federal Reserve focuses more on core inflation. Recent data such as PPI and nonfarm payrolls have already released some pressure, and the market has priced in some negative factors in advance.
Three scenarios:
🟢 Core CPI ≤ 0.2%
Inflation concerns ease, technology stocks, gold, and crypto assets are expected to recover in the short term.
🟡 Core CPI ≈ 0.3%
The market may fall first then stabilize, with technology and AI sectors continuing to fluctuate and bottom out.
🔴 Core CPI ≥ 0.4%
Inflation significantly exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields may rise, and high-valuation technology, AI, and crypto assets will face pressure.
Barney's final forecast
Headline CPI: slightly high but most likely in line with expectations.
Core CPI: most likely to remain around 0.2%.
In short: a slightly high headline CPI is not scary; what really needs caution is an out-of-control core CPI. $PONS has been very hot recently with large liquidity. What is its fundamental situation? And does it have serious suspicion of being controlled by major holders like $LAB and $BEAT? What is the occupancy rate of its top ten addresses?
The fundamentals of pons are that anyone can quickly issue tokens, and part of the platform fees are used for buyback and burn. Recently, after Robinhood Chain exploded in popularity, a large amount of capital flowed into the pons ecosystem. Its advantages lie in traffic support, genuine platform fee generation, a buyback and burn mechanism, and extremely rapid active user growth. These advantages are also one of the reasons for capital inflow! However! The on-chain depth of pons is not particularly decentralized, making it easy for pump and dump to occur. Investigations and research have even estimated that during certain periods, over 90% of the trading volume appears to be artificially generated. So it is very, very, very risky! To summarize, this coin belongs to a highly speculative project with real business income, not a pure air coin. There is some capital concentration and sentiment-driven characteristics, but currently no clear evidence proves malicious control by the project team. Everyone should manage their positions carefully when buying and not lose big because of small mistakes ⛽️!Every time oil has gone through a major flush in the past, $BTC has eventually shown signs of forming an important macro low around the same broader period. And with oil making a strong recovery again, I thought it was worth bringing that idea back into the conversation. The interesting part is what happened after the previous setup. Since the lows, BTC has already recovered around 40%, while oil has also moved back up almost exactly in line with the broader idea that was being discussed. ObvioWhat really limits the market now is whether the CPI can firmly cement the 70% rate hike pricing 📉 The PPI has already pushed hawkish expectations higher; if the CPI heats up again, the 2-year yield and the dollar can easily accelerate further, and high Beta assets will bear the pressure first. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Next, focus on the yield reaction after the CPI release. If the data is hot but BTC can still hold, it means the negative impact is starting to blunt; if the data turns cold and the rate hike probability quickly retreats, the leverage washed out earlier will actually create more room for a rebound. ⚡️$BTC
Bitcoin has fallen for a week, but does this mean a rebound opportunity has arrived?
On September 4th, I indicated a negative signal for Bitcoin, and since then Bitcoin has started to adjust. So far, it has been continuously declining for a week, dropping from a high of 82,300 to a low of 76,460.
From the perspective of capital flow, Coinank data shows that Bitcoin spot funds have experienced net outflows for 5 consecutive days, with a large net outflow exceeding $400 million yesterday.
The cumulative net outflow over the past three days is about $896 million, which has already surpassed the cumulative net inflow of about $892 million during the surge from August 19th to 21st.
Regarding volume and price relationship, the average daily declining volume from September 4th to 10th is higher than the average daily declining volume from August 28th to September 2nd, indicating that recent selling pressure has indeed increased.
Therefore, from a mid-term perspective, both capital flow and volume-price relationship still support my mid-term bearish view.
However, from a short-term perspective, I believe there is no need to be overly pessimistic.
Yesterday's declining volume was less than that on September 4th and 8th, indicating that short-term selling pressure has weakened.
At 8:30 PM tonight, the US August CPI data will be released.
The PPI data released yesterday was generally strong, and the market's expectation for a rate hike in September has clearly intensified (over 70%).
Therefore, even if tonight's CPI remains high and further boosts rate hike expectations, the market may have already priced in some of the negative factors in advance. Russian Ministry of Defense battle report: A large number of Ukrainian air strike weapons intercepted in one week
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that in the past week, Russian air defense systems intercepted and shot down 5,673 Ukrainian drones, while also intercepting 4 "Fire Flamingo" cruise missiles, 2 "Neptune" missiles, 14 "HIMARS" rockets, and 48 aerial bombs.
This battle report reflects the intensifying long-range strike confrontation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. The Ukrainian forces extensively use drones for deep harassment, while also deploying domestically produced long-range cruise missiles, HIMARS rockets, and other weapons to continuously strike Russian rear facilities. The Russian air defense system undertakes high-intensity interception tasks, and the aerial offense and defense contest between both sides continues.
From a macro transmission perspective, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to disrupt global energy supply expectations. If the conflict escalates further, it will push up oil prices, exacerbate inflation concerns, and strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. It is important to distinguish the current market logic: the geopolitical conflict itself does not directly bring BTC safe-haven buying; what truly affects the market is whether the conflict will drive up energy inflation, thereby raising expectations for interest rate hikes.
If the situation worsens, oil prices rise, and inflationary pressures rebound, it will instead suppress risk assets such as crypto; only when the market experiences systemic risk aversion panic will funds shift to hard assets like gold and BTC. Going forward, the focus will be on tracking whether the conflict spills over to energy infrastructure, as well as the linked changes in oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Is inflation really getting out of control?! 😭 These past few days my mood has been all over the place
Oil prices went up, so things get more expensive. When things get expensive, interest rates are hard to lower. If interest rates don’t come down, Bitcoin longs are going to get crushed again! 😤
Yesterday, US wholesale prices rose 5.4% year-over-year, mainly driven by energy, with diesel prices up more than twenty points in a month.
The Red Sea’s Mocha port was taken over by the Houthis, so ships dare not sail, and oil prices are hovering above $100 on both ends. The longer oil stays high, the harder it will be for prices to come down later.
Tonight at 8:30 PM we’ll see the CPI, and at 10 PM we’ll see if Americans still dare to spend and if they think prices will keep rising. The Fed meets next week, and the market now thinks there’s about a 70% chance of a rate hike. 😱
If core prices unexpectedly soften a bit, my longs can breathe easier. But if gasoline pushes the overall number up, interest rate expectations will tighten again. Then BTC will get smashed, and my liquidation price will get closer again.
US stocks have fallen for four days straight. Apple rose on foldable screen expectations, and Oracle’s cloud revenue more than doubled, showing AI orders are still there and tech stocks aren’t rotten at the core.
Bitcoin is hovering around 77,000. The spot ETF saw nearly $300 million outflows yesterday, with shares redeemed for three days straight. But these funds still hold over $90 billion, about 6% of the total, so in the long run, more buying than selling.
As for me? I just crawled out of the ICU from a 50x long position, and now inflation might kick me back in? If tonight’s CPI blows up, I’m just going to close the app and play dead! 💀
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 The Swiss franc exchange rate poses challenges, but the real exchange rate has remained stable since 2020
The Chairman of the Swiss National Bank stated that the strengthening of the Swiss franc exchange rate presents a real challenge to the domestic economy, but from the perspective of the real exchange rate, it has remained generally stable since 2020.
The market often only looks at the nominal exchange rate. The Swiss franc's nominal exchange rate has been continuously rising due to geopolitical safe-haven buying, which suppresses Swiss export industries. Export-oriented sectors such as watches and machinery are under pressure, with overseas prices of exported goods rising, weakening international competitiveness. However, domestic inflation in Switzerland is significantly lower than in other major economies. After excluding price differences, the real exchange rate, although experiencing periodic fluctuations, has not shown a significant unilateral appreciation overall. This is the core fact emphasized by the central bank.
As a traditional safe-haven currency, the Swiss franc attracts large capital inflows when global uncertainty rises, pushing up the nominal exchange rate. On one hand, the appreciation of the franc lowers import costs and suppresses domestic inflation; on the other hand, it hits exports, creating dual pressure on a small open economy. The Swiss National Bank also retains foreign exchange market intervention tools to respond to excessively rapid appreciation of the franc.
Extending to the global macro level: the movement of the Swiss franc is linked to safe-haven capital flows in gold and the US dollar. If global risk aversion intensifies and the franc strengthens, it will divert some safe-haven funds; but if excessive appreciation of the franc weakens the Swiss economy and prompts central bank intervention, it will alter global foreign exchange market capital flows and indirectly disturb risk appetite in the crypto market. Going forward, focus will be on tracking fluctuations in the Swiss franc's nominal exchange rate, Swiss National Bank intervention actions, and changes in global geopolitical risks. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向