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#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
Exploded! TSMC's Q3 far exceeded expectations, with two hidden signals in the market🔥
TSMC just delivered a stunning Q3: revenue surged 50.9% year-over-year, net profit soared 68.7% year-over-year, all surpassing expectations, with single-quarter profit hitting a record high!
The real hidden line is not in the numbers, but in the structure: 2nm accounts for 8%, advanced process accounts for 79%, and AI high-performance computing business supports nearly 70% of revenue, proving that global computing power capital expenditure is still racing ahead.
But beware: good news ≠ immediate one-sided surge! Past earnings reports often saw "expectations fulfilled, short-term selling pressure emerges" volatile market.
Short-term approach: first see if support holds, don't blindly chase news; if it can withstand profit-taking and hold key resistance levels, the mid-term upward logic will be further confirmed; if it pulls back first, it is actually a retest opportunity after fundamental verification.
It is not just a chip stock, but a "barometer" of the global AI industry chain—if it is strong, the underlying confidence in semiconductors, memory, and even risk assets is solid.【$ETH fell twice as hard as $BTC, bulls really got stunned this time】
In the past 24 hours, nearly $942 million in leveraged positions in the crypto market were liquidated, with bulls accounting for 91.6%. ETH liquidations were about $283 million, BTC about $196 million. ETH dropped over 5%, BTC about 2.5%, making Ethereum the hardest hit in this downturn.
ETH liquidations accounted for nearly 60%, which sounds alarming, but don't mistake liquidation amounts for actual capital outflows. Liquidations represent the nominal value of leveraged positions, not the actual money traders lost. What’s really striking is that the open interest in ETH contracts is smaller than BTC’s, yet the liquidation amount is larger, indicating this drop hit ETH bulls especially hard.
With the Fed’s rate expectations fluctuating and risk assets under pressure, the previously accumulated leverage is now being repaid in concentrated fashion. It’s still too early to say ETH has bottomed out, and you shouldn’t rush to buy just because of massive liquidations.
Next, watch two key signals: whether open interest continues to decline after the price stops falling, and whether spot buying can hold the price. If leverage is fully cleaned out but no one steps in to buy, then it’s not just a liquidation stampede, but also a retreat of the buying side.Is the Fed's "script" about to be torn up?**
Before: Forward guidance + quarterly dot plot was standard, giving the market a reference. In June, Waller refused to release his personal dot plot and cut the statement to 130 words, already showing signs.
Now: Waller is pushing to weaken or even cancel the dot plot, the statement no longer hints at the rate path; in September SEP, 16/18 officials expect another rate hike this year; after the September hike, other officials appeared publicly over 40 times, effectively "speaking" for him; there is already internal conflict within the Fed.
Going forward: If this happens, volatility will spread from FOMC days to every data release day—every CPI and nonfarm payroll will become a "lottery day." The MOVE index for US Treasury volatility has reached 80.6, up 23% from the June low.
Impact: $BTC $ETH are most sensitive to macro data. With an uncertain rate path, risk assets are hard to price, and crypto market volatility will only amplify.
Do you think Waller's move makes the market more rational or more stimulated?
$BTC #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压 I have summarized the known information and news! Currently, BTC and ETH are in a consolidation range. Personally, I am more bearish! Because the inflation data is bearish, the Federal Reserve's policy is hawkish, and the decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries is somewhat positive but cannot be the sole basis for a bullish view. The funding situation still needs confirmation, but currently, it is known to be negative. Looking at tonight's data, inflation is hot, consumption is strong, and layoffs remain low. This means the Federal Reserve lacks sufficient reason to quickly shift to easing in the short term. I personally think the direction is still bearish but will have a recovery. For BTC support, I personally look toward 80,000! For ETH support, I see around 2550. Resistance for BTC is near 82,000, and for ETH around 2430. We can wait a bit for Wash's speech to see if it is hawkish or dovish. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Whether $OKB is minted additionally doesn't rely on official website announcements, believe it or not, check if the contract has mint permissions. This round, OKB directly deleted the mint function, fixed the total supply at 21 million, and the on-chain burn address can be checked. It's not "we promise no additional minting," but "the code layer doesn't have this function."Inflation data has exceeded expectations for two consecutive days, but the rate hike narrative is quietly shifting
For two consecutive days, both CPI and PPI have indicated that "inflation is spreading"
However, the market's pricing for a rate hike in October is actually retreating. After the CPI release, it briefly surged above 50%, but after the PPI data came out, it fell back to around 33%
Citibank changed its stance on the same day. Previously, it predicted that interest rates would remain unchanged for the year, but now it expects a 25 basis point hike in December. The market's pricing for a December rate hike has already reached over 88%
Importantly, Waller will speak at the IMF meeting in Bangkok on Friday morning Beijing time, which is his last public statement before the October FOMC blackout period
He previously promised not to guide the market through short-term outlooks, but after inflation has consecutively exceeded expectations, the market will look for clues from his words on "whether he still insists on one hike within the year"
$BTC just briefly broke through 80,000, the price is falling, trading volume is increasing, some are rotating positions Waiting to short at a rebound high, this position must not be chased
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ PPI surges (YoY +6.3%, a four-year high) and market reaction (10Y yield reverses down 14bp, DXY gives back all gains) form a "stagflation → recession" pricing shift — strong inflation data no longer boosts the dollar and yields, instead reinforcing the "rate hikes kill growth" narrative; Hormuz upgraded to a dual military system + WTI surpasses $96, putting October CPI gasoline forecast (-0.96%) at risk of upward revision, becoming the biggest swing factor for the December rate hike path; BTC breaks below $80,000 triggering a second wave of liquidations ($980 million), ETF large outflows resume, crypto weakens independently compared to gold (gold continues rising to $4,177) Pulling one hair moves the whole body, bulls are fully rebounding, and Ethereum has not lagged behind. According to the script, there are many pullbacks, currently there is more than 60 points of space, taking a short-term profit first. The small loss from this morning has not only been recovered but also gained more.$SNDK SanDisk continues to weaken, maintaining a bearish outlook in the medium to long term.
The storage sector's market heat has cooled down, and SanDisk has recently experienced consecutive pullbacks; blind bottom-fishing is not recommended.
Previously, the stock had accumulated significant gains, and the positive expectations for AI storage have already been priced in. Coupled with domestic storage companies' technological iterations, intensified industry competition, and interest rate concerns triggered by CPI exceeding expectations, capital has begun to reprice SanDisk's valuation.
Although NAND demand has bottomed out, it cannot prevent the stock price from pulling back. High expectations face valuation digestion pressure, and the stock price still has downside potential.
Medium to long-term strategy: continue to watch for shorting opportunities in this stock.
Key target range below: 1250—1200.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ 61,000 $BTC confiscated, why did the market suddenly "go weak"?😰
The market suddenly weakened, and rumors spread wildly in the community — there has been substantial progress in the Qian Zhimin case. The Tianjin No. 2 Intermediate People's Court accepted the case on September 28 for the confiscation of illegal gains, involving more than 61,800 $BTC, valued at over 34 billion yuan.
With such a large volume, the market pressure is visibly significant. Previous analyses pointed out that this is even more complicated than the "Mentougou" case — the UK government, motivated by fiscal deficits, has a clear intention to liquidate, and selling pressure is expected to persist long-term. Once the news broke, many funds hedged in advance, and the candlestick chart directly reflected this.
What is even more unsettling is the plight of the victims. The UK High Court ruled to apply Chinese law, meaning about 16,000 registered claimants may only recover their principal and interest, with the approximately 200-fold appreciation of Bitcoin unrelated to ordinary people.
The disposal plan for the large chips remains unclear, and concerns about concentrated releases continue to hang over the market. Short-term market pressure is inevitable, but what really needs attention is the pace and method by which this massive asset will ultimately be realized.🫠#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Bitcoin fell below 80,000 for the first time in a month, then bounced back
The 80,000 level was lost and then regained tonight. BTC briefly dropped to $79,775 tonight — the first time in a month it fell below $80,000, then quickly rebounded, now back around $81,500 (-0.5%).
The trigger was still PPI: September overall month-on-month +1.3% (expected +0.6%), annual rate 6.3%, the highest this year. With two consecutive inflation shocks, an interest rate hike in October is basically certain, and bears took the opportunity to push down the 80,000 level.
Interestingly, every time it hit near 80,000 this month, there was buying support: October 7, October 12, and tonight — three times it didn’t break through. $80,000 is the hardest floor in the entire market, but it has been tested three times in a month — no matter how hard the floor is, it can’t withstand daily pounding.
Risk warning: Macro data fluctuates sharply before and after, participate cautiously. For reference only, not investment advice.
#BTC#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC delivers another impressive report! 📈
Q3 net profit exceeded market expectations, setting a new all-time high, fully demonstrating the competitive advantage of advanced processes and the strong resilience of AI chip demand.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing AI computing power wave, TSMC, as a core link in the global semiconductor industry chain, not only reflects its own operational strength through its performance but also provides an important observation window for the entire AI industry chain.
Key points to watch next: 🔹 Whether AI demand can continue to support performance growth 🔹 Capacity expansion of advanced processes and advanced packaging 🔹 Future quarterly guidance and changes in capital expenditure
The AI narrative ultimately needs to translate into performance. TSMC's performance once again reminds the market: what truly matters is whether demand growth can continuously convert into profit.
#TSMC #台积电 #AI #半导体 #美股BTC · 148 字 — 美债 5.3% 压顶，$80K 是 BTC 关键线
10 年期美债收益率冲到 5.3%，24 年新高，风险资产门槛抬高。BTC 现约 $83.5K，在 $80K 上方盘整三周仍无底部形态；10 月初流入交易所的 BTC 有 86% 来自盈利的短线客，$75K 是短线成本线。跌破 $80K 才算转弱，你盯哪条线？Tesla's Q3 deliveries exceeded expectations, but profitability remains uncertain. Price cuts squeezed gross margins, and high capital expenditures suppressed profits. Impressive delivery numbers alone are unlikely to make the overall financial report significantly surpass expectations.【The Fed doesn't want to give any direction, so where will the market go?】
Waller wants to reduce forward guidance, downplay or even cancel the dot plot. On the surface, this means the Fed will say less, but in reality, it throws the difficulty of guessing interest rates back to the market. Previously, traders could watch the dot plot to bet on rate cuts, but now they have to watch inflation, employment, and every data change themselves.
At the same time, the US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, and the market's bet on an October rate hike once surged close to 50%, then fell back below 40%.
This is the most awkward situation right now: inflation is still heating up, but the market finds it increasingly difficult to guess the Fed's next move. Today $BTC fell below $81,000, ETH also dropped, and the market has already voted with prices.
I don't think the absence of the dot plot is necessarily bearish, but when inflation is high, the market loses a reference point to anticipate policy, which may lead to greater volatility. Conversely, if inflation cools down later and officials' communication eases rate hike expectations, risk assets can still rebound. For now, don't rush to bet on what Waller says; first watch if inflation and capital flows turn together.#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
Currently, the market is more inclined towards no rate cuts, with the US dollar and US Treasury yields rising, causing BTC and ETH to fall accordingly.
Therefore, the current outlook on BTC and ETH remains bearish, heavily influenced by macro factors. However, there is some positive news as the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields has led to a rise in gold.
Inflation stickiness is confirmed, indicating a clear bearish trend, which means the market is choosing to absorb negative factors. Cryptocurrencies are under pressure, and Bitcoin's support level is likely to drop again.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Wow, inflation really isn't going to give the Federal Reserve any face.
CPI rose, and PPI surged as well. I originally thought they would go the rate cut route, but inflation suddenly pulled a counterattack, and the Fed is probably rubbing its temples.
Another rate hike by the end of the year? In my view, this really isn't something to laugh off.
For the crypto world, the biggest fear isn't the rate hike itself, but the market's expectation of easing that keeps getting delayed.
If the dollar continues to strengthen, risk assets could come under pressure. Bitcoin still has to watch the mood of the US stock and bond markets, and those altcoins propped up by sentiment will probably suffer even more.
But I don't think that just because inflation exceeds expectations, you should immediately rush in to short.
The market trades on expectations. If the bad news is priced in early, when the news actually lands, there might be a rebound instead. You think you're shorting with the trend, but the market flips the script on you: you understood the news, but not the market. 😂
Going forward, I'll be closely watching the Fed's stance, as well as changes in the dollar and US bond yields. The risk of rate hikes is worth guarding against, but blindly chasing shorts is not advisable.
You can be bearish on the market, but don't let your brain go short with it.
What do you think, will the Fed hike rates again by the end of the year? If they do, will Bitcoin dive straight down, or will it first squeeze out the shorts before falling?
Let's chat in the comments and see who the real prophet is! 🤣
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $SOL is just 0.46 away from falling below 100. With tonight's market, it's the worst hit.
Once PPI came out at 6.3%, the market immediately accelerated downward. $BTC dropped to a low of 79725, $ETH to 2315, but SOL was the hardest hit, bottoming at 100.46, just 0.46 away from losing the three-digit mark, now barely recovering to 103.8.
Why is SOL the weakest? Look at the funding rates: SOL's rate turned negative, shorts started collecting fees, longs can't even afford the interest. The open interest hasn't dropped much, indicating longs are still holding on hard. BTC has ETF support, ETH has institutional attention, SOL relies on its ecosystem and sentiment. When macro tightens, it's the first to be sold off.
The 100 level is very critical. Holding it might lead to a short-term rebound, but that rebound is also an opportunity to reduce positions. If it breaks, the three-digit mark won't hold, possibly dragging the whole market further down.
I currently have no positions and don't plan to bet on direction here. I'll wait for SOL to clarify its path.
Do you think SOL can hold 100 tonight?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？
#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's quarterly report looks really good, with both revenue and profit significantly increased. But going forward: several major AI companies have already started to compete on price, model iterations are getting faster, and customers may not blindly stack cards like in the past two years. If there really is excess capacity in infrastructure, TSMC's growth rate is very likely to slow down and won't remain this exaggerated.Brothers, today is a Black Thursday for the entire market. I've sorted out the reasons for the decline; three negative factors are linked one after another, each more frightening than the last.
First, last night the US CPI inflation data rebounded sharply, heating up expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. The most direct result of a rate hike is that market interest rates are continuously pushed higher.
The second negative factor is that AI cloud provider CoreWeave is facing a debt crisis, with both its stocks and bonds plummeting. This company's model is simple: borrow money at high interest to buy Nvidia graphics cards, then rent out computing power to earn the spread. Last night, its bond yield surged directly to 15%, which is its future borrowing cost.
Combined with the Fed's rate hike expectations, the market is starting to worry whether it can repay on time with such high leverage and expensive debt, and whether the debt chain will collapse. If the AI industry explodes rapidly and generates massive cash flow, the market would still be willing to tolerate it.
Then the third scary story came: the latest news is that Anthropic's revenue growth has slowed significantly. Borrowing is getting more expensive, debt is piling up, but whether revenue growth can keep pace with the cash-burning expansion is a big question mark.
So today's sharp drop is caused by the simultaneous outbreak of three problems: inflation rebound, rising financing costs, exposure of debt risks in computing power companies, downward revision of AI growth expectations, and collective pressure on high valuations.
If the Fed launches another round of rate hikes, the risk-free rate could easily reach 6%. Who would still want to stay in the stock market to bear the risk? There is already capital bottom-fishing US Treasuries for safety, and Treasury yields are plunging accordingly.
$CRWV $ANTHROPIC #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
$OP Why is this wave pushing up against the overall market trend? Simply put, it's not retail investors' faith, but others doing the math.
I checked several big accounts; one with 50x leverage short position just got slapped in the face—shorted at a high point, but the price dropped steadily from around 0.15 to just above 0.13, and the stops were dragged back to break-even one by one. On the other hand, it rose 40% in 30 days, while Bitcoin only gained single digits in the same period—the difference is clear. Betting on such a clone with dozens of times leverage, a small jump from others is like a month's electricity bill; this isn't courage, it's a show.
The real story supporting it is that Upgrade plans to use half of its revenue for buybacks, but that's not until 2027. What’s being hyped now is just that number; the distant drumbeats are sounding first. Circulating supply is 230 million compared to a total of 429 million, with unlocks queued up behind; once the pace loosens, it will shake hard. $OP $DOGE currently shows two unusual numbers side by side: whale holdings have hit a six-month high, 77% of retail accounts are long, yet the price is stuck in the lower third of its one-year range, less than 10% above the yearly low.
These two numbers actually refer to different things. The 77% longs among retail investors are mostly not based on judgment but habit—buying the dip repeatedly, adding at round number levels. Of the DOGE positions liquidated across the network in the past six days, 86% were long positions, and almost all liquidations came from this bottom-fishing group.
The whale holdings hitting new highs is not because they are actively chasing buys, but because they are receiving. Retail traders’ leveraged long exposure is forcibly liquidated, and the tokens are transferred via the liquidation engine to the cash-holding side; the lower the price drops, the more longs get liquidated, and the more spot tokens can be acquired. One side is buying exposure, the other is collecting tokens—though the direction looks the same, their nature is completely opposite.
So don’t treat "whales accumulating" and "retail bottom-fishing" as the same signal. The former is the result, the latter is the fuel.
Currently, 80% is the pivot point for this round; below, 76.5% is where the densest cluster of long liquidations lies—if broken, it will trigger a continuous downward sweep; above, 87% and then 90% are the two hurdles this rebound must overcome. #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly . 80,000, broken.
BTC briefly dropped to 79,991 USDT, with over 170,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, longs accounting for 90%.
What changed? This is BTC's third retest near 81,000, but on-chain realized losses have decreased — the first time was panic selling concentrated exit, the second time selling willingness clearly weakened, the third time is the macro bearish pressure forcing "swing chips" to stop loss.
Why is this worth attention? The long-short ratio has dropped to 0.8628, with shorts holding short-term advantage. But the decreasing losses indicate: chips are being cleared out, not a full collapse.
Which observation is currently more supported? More inclined to "consolidation digestion." Short-term holders' loss ratio is about 31%, still below the historical average of 42.7%, so clearing might not be finished yet.
Next thing to watch: Are losses converging or expanding again? If converging, the bottom is near. Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC As soon as the US PPI was released, risk appetite took another hit, and concerns about inflation stickiness resurfaced. Wall Street showed mixed gains and losses overnight, while the crypto market dropped more directly: BTC at $81,180, down 1.11% in 24 hours; ETH at $2,372, down 2.71%; SOL at $103, down 1.16%. Almost all mainstream assets weakened across the board.
This downturn is still driven by tightening macro expectations. The PPI makes the market more conservative about the rate cut path, with risk-free rates staying high and discount rates rising, putting pressure first on high-valuation, high-beta assets. Crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve; when liquidity expectations fluctuate, volatility is amplified, and declines generally exceed those of US stocks. Ultimately, it remains the asset class most sensitive to liquidity.
Before a macro turning point appears, don't rush to see rebounds as entry signals. When prices rise, it's more an opportunity to reduce positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year? TSMC report: Q3 net profit up 68.7% year-on-year, gross margin 66.4%; Q4 revenue guidance midpoint implies a sequential increase of about 14%. Demand for advanced processes remains strong, with 2nm ramping up rapidly.
In after-hours US trading, $TSM fell about 2.0%, $SOXX dropped about 2.2%. Despite this strong performance, it has not yet stopped the semiconductor decline.
Last night’s CPI exceeded expectations, intensifying market concerns about rate hikes. TSMC can prove that demand for advanced chips remains strong, but it cannot resolve the pressure from interest rates and financing costs.
What is worth noting now: both earnings and guidance are strong, yet the stock price continues to fall. This means that strong demand alone is no longer enough to attract capital back in.
The semiconductor fundamentals are supported, but a short-term bottom has not yet been confirmed. Tonight, we will see after the official open whether this positive news can bring sustained buying.# Standard Chartered Opens BTC and ETH Trading, Expands Bank Crypto Business
As a globally systemically important bank, Standard Chartered officially launches BTC and ETH spot trading services, currently available to compliant professional/institutional high-net-worth clients, not ordinary retail investors. It is supported by the bank's own custody system and operates under the VARA and FCA regulatory frameworks.
This signifies that traditional mainstream banks no longer act solely as capital channels but directly provide integrated services of quoting, trading, and custody. It is a landmark event for TradFi's continued acceptance of blue-chip crypto assets.
*Key distinctions:*
In the short term, this will not immediately bring massive incremental capital inflows. Having a trading channel does not mean institutions will immediately buy in large volumes; many transactions satisfy existing clients' asset allocation and hedging needs. More importantly, it lowers compliance entry barriers and represents a medium- to long-term infrastructure benefit, with short-term sentiment effects being stronger.
*Deeper narrative:*
Following spot ETFs opening asset management channels, global major banks' OTC trading desks fill another institutional access path.
*Market transmission:*
This is a relatively positive sentiment catalyst, but the current market trend is still dominated by US Treasury yields, inflation, and rate cut expectations. If macro pressure continues, this news alone is unlikely to independently drive a sustained upward trend; it is more likely a pulse-like positive that may see gains realized and then pull back. However, if multiple major banks follow up with expansion, it will gradually broaden sources of incremental capital in the long term.
Key follow-up points: whether expansion to other regions occurs, whether the scope of access widens, and whether new peers follow suit with similar business launches.
$BTC $ETH#BlackRock's crypto asset scale grew by 63%, directly pulling the scale to $79.6 billion. Breaking down the data carefully is interesting: of the $30.8 billion increase, $22.9 billion was driven by the token price appreciation itself, and the actual new net inflow was $7.9 billion.
What does this mean? Institutional channels are steadily managing liquidity, but the vast majority of the increase is still driven by the appreciation of existing assets. Wall Street's fees are soaring, and the pricing power of Bitcoin and Ethereum is further locked tightly within traditional financial accounts.
For US stocks, the earnings logic of concept stocks like COIN and MSTR has completely turned into a derivative indicator of institutional holdings. Funds have not increased out of thin air; it's just that the weight of cross-asset allocation is reshuffling. Understanding the real inflow of $7.9 billion and the proportion of asset unrealized gains is far more useful than just watching the total book value.
$ZEC $SNDK $OKB #ETF is running, whales are scooping up — today's most worth-watching divergence.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million yesterday, with Fidelity's FBTC alone withdrawing $153 million. But on-chain data simultaneously shows that large holders (addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC) have increased their holdings to 3.03 million BTC, adding positions against the trend.
What has changed? Institutions are reducing via ETFs, while on-chain whales are accumulating.
Why is this worth attention? These two groups are focused on different factors. ETF outflows are more driven by Federal Reserve rate uncertainty and macro sell pressure; on-chain whales focus on cycle positioning and valuation, not short-term interest rates.
Which observation is currently more supported? Leaning towards "chip rotation" rather than "full retreat" — ETFs are selling liquidity chips, while whales are taking long-term positions; both can happen simultaneously.
Next, keep an eye on one thing: whether this divergence of "ETF outflows and on-chain inflows" continues to widen or quickly converges. Share your judgment in the comments. $ETH xXIAOMI/USDT is showing a strong breakout on the 1D chart.
Last price is $xXIAOMI 3.435, up +4.31%, near the 24h high $3.453 after bouncing from $2.972 bottom. Price just broke above MA5 $3.262, MA10 $3.203 and MA20 $3.217 with a big green candle. Volume is spiking to 1.70M, confirming bullish momentum.
If it holds above $3.40, next target is $3.60 top. Support is now $xXIAOMI a3.25 - $3.20. Trend flipped from bearish to bullish. This looks ready to continue higher. Bulls are in control now.US PPI exploded, but this time BTC's drop is a bit different.
September PPI surged 6.3% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected 5.3%, hitting a four-year high. After the data release, BTC slid from $83,000 down to around $80,000, which looks scary.
But one detail was overlooked: BTC has hit $81,000 three times in the past week, and the on-chain loss scale each time has actually been getting smaller.
What does this indicate? The first time was panic selling concentrated exit, the second time no one was willing to sell, and the third time macro negative factors forced "swing chips" to stop loss — more like chips are slowly clearing out rather than a full collapse.
Currently, the observation supports "consolidation digestion" rather than "trend collapse": funding rates have turned negative, but the long-short ratio still leans bullish, and the market is in a crowded state of passive positions.
Next, keep an eye on one thing: at the $80,000 level, is the loss release converging or expanding again? If converging, short-term pressure is almost over. Share your judgment in the comments. $BTC Asset Divergence After PPI Shock: What Are the Dollar, Gold, and BTC Pricing?
PPI data far exceeded expectations, but the reactions of the three major assets showed clear divergence. This divergence itself is the most valuable information:
Dollar "Rises Then Falls": Initially, the dollar rebounded due to interest rate differentials when the data was released, but then reversed downward, ultimately falling 0.4% to 98.02. The market began pricing in "stagflation" risk—persistent inflation coupled with weak consumer momentum (September retail sales increased only 0.2%), eroding the dollar's purchasing power.
Gold "Rises Against the Trend": Amid rising stagflation risk, institutional funds' first reaction was still to flock to gold rather than Bitcoin. The "digital gold" narrative for Bitcoin remains fragile under short-term macro shocks.
BTC "Under Pressure and Declining": BTC is pricing in "liquidity tightening expectations." BTCC Chief Analyst Mark pointed out that when PPI exceeds 2.5% for three consecutive months, the crypto market usually experiences 10%-15% short-term volatility. However, this time PPI far exceeded expectations (6.3% vs. 5.3%), yet BTC's reaction was relatively mild—indicating the market had partially priced in hotter inflation expectations before the data release, and there is strong technical support around $80,000, with insufficient panic selling momentum. $BTC $ETH $SOL #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 午睡醒来账户像被抽走了电：DOGE把涨幅几乎全吐回去，BTC在80000门口拉警报，ZEC卡在1000上下不肯给答案。 是不是每次情绪最满的时候，市场反而先转身？ 我盯着这三个画面，第一反应不是"又跌了"，而是这更像一段趋势里的分歧段，甚至局部已经带着派发的味道。DOGE最明显，涨的时候小碎步，跌的时候直接滚下山，说明短线情绪盘在撤，缺少Musk那种外部喊单后，它连反弹的骨架都软。BTC更关键，80000被看成最后的体面，一旦失守，76000会重新进入视野；韩国市场一打喷嚏，全场跟着发热，也提醒我现货装死有时比合约蹦迪更安全。ZEC则是另一种疼，1000摇摇欲坠，破位就要看900，方向偏下没错，错的是总想等更高再空，结果车没上，人先麻。 这里市场交易的其实不是单个币，而是风险偏好的收缩速度。CPI超预期升到3.7%，今晚PPI再来一轮考验，宏观端没有给情绪松绑；台积电和奈飞的盈利故事再亮，也不直接等于加密买盘回归。于是BTC承压会先压ETH的弹性，再压山寨的叙事空间，DOGE和ZEC这种高波动标的就成了情绪温度计。偏多路径也有：如果BTC守住80000并快速收回，空头回补会先修复主流，At 20:30 tonight, a set of significant macroeconomic data will be released, serving as a second stress test following the CPI data.
The September retail sales month-over-month forecast has dropped from 1.10% to 0.30%, indicating a significant slowdown in end consumption. If the data is realized, it could curb inflation but ignite market concerns about economic downturn.
The September PPI year-over-year forecast is expected to slightly decline, while the month-over-month forecast rises to 0.50%, reflecting sticky upstream production inflation and that pressure has not been fully released.
Initial jobless claims are expected to slightly rise to 200,000, indicating marginal weakening in the labor market; the New York Fed manufacturing index is expected to rebound. Overall, economic slowdown and inflation resilience coexist.
Previously, CPI exceeded expectations, pushing up US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations, causing a sharp pullback in the storage sector stocks.
Scenario analysis: If consumption and employment data show clear weakness, the market will trade on "weak economy," rate hike expectations will fall, and crypto will have a chance to recover; if retail sales and PPI again exceed expectations and strengthen, stagflation expectations will rise, and Bitcoin will face selling pressure again. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Intraday Market Analysis
Just as the US stock market opened, BTC led the risk assets lower, with the price dipping to a recent low near $79,700. This level is close to the market consensus key support zone at $80,000. Spot buying power concentratedly emerged, and the market quickly rebounded above $81,000. This round of market movement, besides the expected recovery following negative news, was significantly supported by technical factors. Coupled with the marginal retreat after a spike in long-term US Treasury yields, risk sentiment simultaneously improved. Passive short covering in the derivatives market further amplified the rebound. This rebound showed notable divergence characteristics: BTC recovered first, altcoins followed with limited strength, and the US tech sector also recovered but not strongly enough to trigger a full reversal in risk appetite.
Regarding the subsequent market trend, the short-term market is likely to remain in a consolidation pattern. This rebound is characterized as an impulse recovery based on key support, while a sustained upward trend still requires continuous easing of inflation data and renewed expectations of rate cuts as a foundation. If inflation remains resilient, expectations of prolonged high interest rates will continue to suppress crypto asset valuations, making the market rebound more of a temporary opportunity. The core indicators to watch going forward are the core PCE data and policy statements from Federal Reserve officials. Changes in liquidity expectations remain the key variable driving the mid-term direction of US growth stocks and crypto assets.80000 is not support; it is where stop-loss orders accumulate.
$BTC rebounded from 80200 to 81500.
This rebound was not driven by buying pressure.
What does this price level represent:
After the previous low was broken, those trapped above took the opportunity to close their positions.
Closing positions means buying back, which pushed the price up a bit.
Who is placing orders here:
After breaking the previous low, stop-loss orders concentrate below 80000.
When support is broken, those orders will be automatically sold.
Pushing down further, sell orders suppress the price, pushing it down another notch.
The next batch of stop-loss orders gets triggered.
At the 80000 round number, order density is higher than elsewhere.
Where orders are dense, the speed of being swept is also faster.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#$BTC BTC retraces to the 50-day moving average: Is it a bull market entry opportunity or another cycle trap?
Looking back at the bear-to-bull transitions in 2015, 2019, and 2023, there is a notable commonality: about 40–50 days after BTC reclaims the 50-day moving average, it often experiences a retracement, following a cumulative gain of around 30%. Although subsequent price movements vary, some rallies have surged over 50% after confirming the retracement.
If a similar pattern occurs this time, the pullback is indeed worth close attention. However, historical patterns are not guaranteed scripts, and a few samples are insufficient to prove repetition every time.
What truly matters is the trading volume during the retracement, whether the 50-day moving average holds, and if a break below can be quickly recovered. If the price breaks down with high volume and the rebound faces persistent resistance, be cautious of a weakening trend rather than mechanically treating the decline as a buying opportunity.
**Pullbacks may create opportunities, but confirmed support is the basis for trading.** Don’t rush to guess the bottom; keep cash ready, manage your position size, and let the market provide the answers first. $BTC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The rumor about Li Ka-shing's death, I was probably the first on the entire internet to debunk it. Jiasheng International still hit the daily limit today—A-shares are T+1, so the market makers who pushed the limit up can't sell today, they can only hold on and keep it locked until the close.Is SNDK at $1310 a golden opportunity or a bottomless pit?
Falling from 2354 to 1310, halving in a month, everyone is cursing "Chinese storage is about to flip the table"—but just now, RSI dropped into the oversold zone, while S&P upgraded the rating to BBB. So is this wave the golden opportunity for AI storage, or the first domino signaling a cycle peak?
Let's look at the surface first: the drop is so severe even close supporters don't recognize it, but someone is quietly buying.
Current price $1310, down 15-20% in a week, and another 6-8% today. 52-week high was 2354, now halved. Huge volume, Binance perpetual contracts see tens of billions USDT in 24 hours, and funding rates remain positive—indicating bulls are not dead yet, shorts are still collecting rent.
Candlesticks tell you: breaking all short-term moving averages, MACD dead cross bearish alignment, consecutive red candles, RSI 28-35 entering oversold zone. All indicators shout one thing: a technical rebound could come anytime, but the trend is already down.
First point: The "wolf is coming" for Chinese storage, the market preemptively sells off out of respect.
ChangXin (CXMT) has breakthroughs in DRAM, rumors in NAND, and YMTC's NAND market share is rising. The market hears "Chinese capacity" and the entire storage sector panics—Micron and SK Hynix both get hit.
But understand one thing: SNDK's main business is NAND flash and enterprise SSDs, not DRAM. ChangXin focuses on DRAM, so direct competition with SNDK is limited.
This is "emotional contagion," not "fundamental collapse."
In plain terms: others catch a cold, you start your own funeral. This is the market's stupidity and the smart money's opportunity.
Second point: AI storage demand has not stopped.
SNDK is a pure NAND play spun off from Western Digital. FY2026 revenue $20.2 billion, up 175% year-over-year, net profit $11.4 billion, gross margin once hit 80%+. Enterprise/data center business grows rapidly, with data storage cooperation with Meta, long-term contracts and prepayments locking in visibility.
S&P upgraded rating to BBB, emphasizing strong cash flow. Analyst consensus target price $2100-$2200, some up to $2400+.
All fundamental data says: this company is making money hand over fist.
So why did the stock fall from 2354 to 1310?
Because the market is betting—betting the storage cycle has peaked, betting Chinese capacity will crush pricing power, betting AI capital expenditure is unsustainable.
If the bet is right, SNDK falls below 1000. If wrong, this is a golden opportunity.
Third point: The October 29 earnings report is a life-or-death verdict.
Q1 FY2027 earnings expected EPS about $46, revenue about $10.6 billion. Previous quarters have significantly beaten expectations.
This is the key validation point:
If earnings beat + strong guidance → market realizes "China panic" is a false alarm → rapid recovery to 1500-1800
If pricing slows or guidance is conservative → confirms cycle peak → further deep correction, testing 1000-1200
What you are buying now is not a stock, but a lottery ticket before earnings.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
AI data center/enterprise SSD demand is very strong, NAND supply tight
S&P upgraded to BBB, strong cash flow
Forward PE dropped to single digits, valuation well digested
RSI oversold, strong technical rebound demand
Analyst consensus target price $2100-$2200
On the other side:
Long-term threat from Chinese capacity (CXMT/YMTC)
Strong storage cycle, once pricing peaks profits compress quickly
Hot CPI, rising US Treasury yields suppress high-valuation tech stocks
Breaking all short-term moving averages, downtrend
Funding rate still positive, crowded longs prone to liquidation
Key level 1310, only $40 above support at 1270.
Resistance above: 1350-1400 → 1500 → 1800
Support below: 1270-1300 → 1200 → 1000 (extreme case)
Trading strategy
Short term (1-2 weeks):
Don't rush to bottom fish. Downtrend, wait for stabilization near 1300 + volume increase with bullish candle + RSI divergence, then try small long positions.
Set strict stop loss below 1270, target to sell half at 1350-1400.
If rebound to 1350-1400 is weak, can lightly short targeting 1300-1270.
Leverage controlled within 3-5x, don't get greedy.
Mid term (until earnings):
If it continues down to around 1200 or lower, and fundamentals remain unchanged, can build position gradually betting on earnings catalyst.
Position size controlled at 2-3% of total capital, avoid heavy positions.
Reduce positions before earnings, don't gamble on earnings—win and profit, lose and suffer.
Risk control:
Always use stop loss, must exit if below 1270.
Watch US market open and CPI data, macro drives short term.
SNDK's current script is exactly like Nvidia's pullback in 2024—
Everyone shouted "AI bubble burst," but earnings proved them wrong.
But remember: once cyclical stocks weaken, their drops are irrational.
No matter how strong the AI narrative, it can't resist the gravitational pull of the storage cycle.
$BTC $SNDK $CXMT ⚠️$BTC Bitcoin price is only a few hundred dollars away from its ETF cost price
The current price is about $815,000, right within the average cost range of the US spot ETF.
But the current buying power is quite weak:
• From October 7 to 15, ETF net outflows were nearly $750 million.
Spot trading volume remains sluggish
• The largest buy order size on CEX exchanges is currently small, about $80,000.
Meanwhile, below $80,000, there are many long liquidations. Bitcoin may first test the $80,000 level rather than directly rebound to $85,000. If the closing price is below $80,000, it may reach the true market average around $78,000. Rincian struktur inflasi menunjukkan bahwa komponen jasa inti (core services) terus mendominasi dan menjadi kontributor terbesar inflasi dibandingkan komponen energi maupun barang. Meskipun komponen energi sempat melonjak tajam pada awal 2026, tekanan inflasi keseluruhan tetap bertahan di kisaran 3%–4% akibat tingginya biaya di sektor jasa yang lebih sulit melandai (sticky). Kekakuan inflasi jasa ini mencerminkan masih kuatnya tekanan biaya operasional internal dan permintaan domestik, yang mengAAVE breaks below 155, the lending leader dragged down as well
$AAVE at 150.9, down about 5.6%, the 155 level broke just like that. It was holding relatively firm at 156 and 158 a couple of days ago, but today it was dragged down directly to 150; even the lending leader couldn't avoid this hit. Its strength lies in real demand; the more active the market, the deeper the moat for lending. But this wave is a broad decline, and even coins with fundamentals fall when funds withdraw. It dropped 9% in a week, one of the bigger pullbacks recently. After breaking 155, that level turns into resistance; 150 is the current position, with a downside target of 148. Unlike coins driven by sentiment, it has real lending business behind it. Holding it is a long-term play, but short-term pullbacks require patience. Wait for it to stabilize near 150 and climb back above 155 before reconsidering; no need to watch bottom-tier coins every day.
$RE at 0.404, down about 5.8%, belongs to DeFi like AAVE—one insurance, one lending. Both are retreating today, indicating the whole sector is being reduced by funds. 0.4 is a psychological level; if it doesn't hold, things look worse. Insurance is a slow burner; it needs a market recovery before gaining recognition, so don't rush to buy.
$WLD at 0.476, down about 6.6%, is the bellwether for the AI sector. Its drop shows funds are withdrawing from narrative-driven assets, and it's not just this one. Narrative assets are the first to be sold in weak markets because funds seek certainty. If 0.476 doesn't hold, look down to 0.45. Wait for the storm to pass; don't rush to catch the fall.BTC is currently trading around $80,500, down about 2.6% in 24 hours, having briefly dipped to a low of $80,204, just shy of the $80,000 mark.
On the macro front, the US September CPI year-on-year came in at 3.7%, exceeding expectations, with PPI and retail data also strong. The probability of a rate hike in October surged from 22% to 47%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5.33%, the dollar is strengthening, and risk assets are under broad pressure.
On-chain data shows BTC has tested the $81,000 level for the third time, but the scale of losses on each dip is decreasing, indicating a reduction in panic selling. More so, it reflects swing traders cutting losses rather than a full-blown crash. The average ETF holding cost is about $81,500, nearly coinciding with the current price, forming a key dividing line between bulls and bears. The funding rate turning negative indicates short-term dominance by shorts, but the long-short ratio still favors bulls, with a risk of crowded longs being passively held.
Technically, the $80,000–$80,700 range is a critical support zone; a decisive break below could test the true market average price around $78,000. Resistance lies between $82,000 and $84,000, which needs volume recovery to improve the short-term structure. It is recommended to wait and watch for stabilization signals and monitor Fed officials' subsequent statements for their impact on macro sentiment. $BTC TSMC's Q3 net profit reached 763.1 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding expectations. Revenue was 1.49 trillion, up 50.9% year-on-year. 2nm accounted for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall accounted for 79%. AI demand is still supporting performance. But the stock price fell 2.82%. Why? The market is not looking at how much has already been earned, but how much of that money will need to be spent. Growth heavily**Is the Fed's "script" about to be torn up?**
Before: Forward guidance + quarterly dot plots were standard, giving the market a reference. In June, Waller refused to release his personal dot plot and cut the statement to 130 words, already showing signs.
Now: Waller is pushing to weaken or even eliminate the dot plot, and the statement no longer hints at the rate path; in September SEP, 16/18 officials expect another rate hike this year; after the September hike, other officials appeared publicly over 40 times, effectively "speaking" for him; internal disputes have erupted within the Fed.
Future: If this happens, volatility will spread from FOMC days to every data release day—each CPI and nonfarm payroll release becomes a "lottery day." The MOVE index for US Treasury volatility has reached 80.6, up 23% from the June low.
Impact: $BTC $ETH are most sensitive to macro data. With an uncertain rate path, risk assets are hard to price, and crypto market volatility will only amplify.
Do you think Waller's move makes the market more rational or more stimulated? #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Falling less ≠ Holding up
$BTC drops 3% daily, 2% weekly, yet still holds a 7% gain on the monthly chart.
Beginners often mistake these three figures as the same thing — but they are not.
The key is: the starting points of these three time frames are completely different.
Those who entered a month ago are still in profit, while those who chased in a week ago are already at a floating loss.
The same candlestick feels completely different to two groups of people.
Don’t be fooled by "falling less." A small drop only means light selling pressure, it doesn’t mean someone is buying, nor does it mean there is a strong bottom below.
$ETH drops 5.6% daily, SOL nearly 7% weekly, the logic is the same — how much it falls is a result, not support.
As for round numbers like 80,000 or 100, they don’t generate any buying pressure themselves.
Price stops there purely because orders happen to pile up at that level.
$SOL
Whether it continues to drop after stopping or gets pushed back up are two completely different things; don’t make market decisions prematurely. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Last night's CPI just exploded the market, and tonight's PPI directly flipped the table
Data across the board exceeded expectations... The market's hope for a rebound was extinguished
Yesterday, the CPI exceeded expectations by about 0.1 percentage points. Energy, especially gasoline, was the main factor, but housing, cars, and clothing also rose, indicating that the pressure is not just due to oil prices.
Looking at the two days together, the energy shock is no longer a one-time disturbance at the CPI level; it will continue to transmit to the consumer side. The PPI year-on-year surged to 6.3%, much higher than the CPI, so it is hard to expect the CPI to ease easily in the coming months.
For the Federal Reserve, this PPI basically confirms the necessity of further rate hikes. In terms of policy implications, the Fed just raised 25 basis points in September, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%. The market originally expected a pause in October and another move in December.
After two consecutive days of inflation data exceeding expectations, the communication at the October meeting will be tougher, and the narrative of rate cuts is untenable; for the market, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have short-term upward momentum, and stock valuations are under pressure. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Capital flow review: BTC historical chip signal of moving average pullback during bear-to-bull phase
From the market, long-term funds are gradually entering, while short-term traders remain cautious. Historical market statistics (on-chain historical K-lines, four cycles in 2015/2019/2023/2025) show that the key points when BTC shifted from bear to bull markets generally involve a pullback within 40 to 50 days after stabilizing above the 50-day moving average. The price increase from stabilizing above the moving average to before this pullback mostly hovered around 30%.
Funds choose to accumulate chips at the pullback position, but subsequent behavior varies across cycles. In 2015 and 2019, after the pullback, long-term funds continued to increase positions, and the market rose at least 50%; in 2023, there was a brief break below the moving average followed by rapid capital return, then similarly a 50% upward move.
This current pullback is one of the cycle signals given by long-term funds. At what price would you set your limit orders and stop losses to respond to this chip test?
$BTC $ETH $SOL In the past two days, US Treasury yields have been fluctuating above 5%, and ETH has been hit much harder than BTC. BTC dropped 2.6% in one day, while ETH fell 5%, now at 2371.
The reason, simply put, is a matter of accounting.
One of ETH's strongest selling points in the past two years is its ability to generate interest. If you stake ETH, you can earn some yield annually. Many institutions are attracted by this, treating it as an "interest-bearing digital asset."
But what is the current interest rate? Only about 2.2% per year.
Now look at US Treasuries. Even if the 10-year yield drops today, it still stands at 5.1%. You can put money in and earn passively without worrying about price fluctuations or sudden crashes.
On one side, there's 2.2% yield but you have to bear the price volatility; on the other, 5.1% yield with no hassle. If you were a fund manager, you'd definitely move money toward US Treasuries.
BTC doesn't have this problem. It never relies on interest; people buy it as digital gold. So when US Treasury yields rise, ETH is the first to be outcompeted.
This also explains why ETH ETFs saw $200 million flow out in a single day a few days ago. It's not that people don't believe in Ethereum, but at this price, holding it isn't cost-effective.
Therefore, ETH is in a tougher spot than BTC. In terms of price, today it touched a low of 2332, with 2315 below as a key level; if that breaks, look toward 2200. On the upside, reclaiming 2500 is needed to consider a recovery.
Only when US Treasury yields truly come down will ETH's interest advantage return, and then its rebound will be stronger than BTC. $BTC $ETH In 24 hours, the probability of a rate hike in October surged from 20% to 50% — but the real fear isn't this.
Yesterday, CPI exceeded expectations, and the market was still consoling itself with "no rate hike in October." Today, PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, expected 0.5%, which is 2.6 times the forecast. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped directly from 20% to 50% in just 24 hours.
But the real fear isn't the doubling of the rate hike probability.
It's that the August PPI data was revised up from 5.4% to 5.6% — indicating that the previous data was already strong but was just concealed. Inflation didn't "suddenly rebound," it has been there all along; the market just refuses to admit it.
There's also a time window many people haven't noticed: Wash will speak tomorrow at 11:30 AM in Bangkok, and the Fed enters a blackout period on Saturday. That means tomorrow is his last chance to make a public statement. Against the backdrop of such a PPI explosion, if he hints at a possible rate hike in October — BTC could directly go to 78,000.
80,000 was already broken once today, and the support at this level is weaker than expected. Don't catch a falling knife here; wait for Wash's speech to land before making moves