Orbit Post Sitemap
$ETH: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 2,450-2,460 range (EMA5 and previous small platform resistance area) and then enter short.
· The target is first the previous low at 2,405; if broken effectively, then look at 2,380. Set stop loss above 2,500.
Core basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 1-hour level, EMA5/10/20 are diverging downward, price is suppressed below all moving averages, rebound highs are continuously decreasing, confirming a short-term weak pattern.
2. Market systemic decline: Figure 2 shows mainstream coins all sharply down ($SOL down 6%, FIL down 10%, $STRK down 29%), panic sentiment spreading in the market, lacking independent strength.
3. Whale chips heavy short squeeze: Figure 3 shows the average cost for longs at 2,551, currently deeply underwater (unrealized loss of 40.88 million U). Heavy trapped positions near 2,550 above, rebounds to this level will face heavy selling pressure from stop-loss liquidation, making shorting with favorable risk-reward ratio.
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Set take profit near 80500, wait for tonight's upward spike to short again, see how far it can spike, expected to approach the top of wave B, might even break above wave B's top. If tomorrow's PPI exceeds expectations, it will accelerate the decline of wave C.The most honest signal in the current market is trading volume. BTC is declining with shrinking volume in the $81,000-$82,000 range, ETH is weakly consolidating between $2,450-$2,500, and the volume does not support a reversal. Without volume confirmation, any "bottoming out" is just a consolidation with shrinking volume, not a true bottom.
A bottom requires three signals to appear simultaneously:
First, ETF outflows stop. The daily net outflow of BTC and ETH spot ETFs returns to zero or turns into net inflows. This is the first solid signal of improved capital flow, more honest than any technical indicator.
Second, leverage cleansing is complete. The proportion of long liquidations drops from the current 73% to below 50%, indicating the market is no longer a one-sided slaughter. The current disparity in long and short liquidations shows the cleansing is not yet finished.
Third, a sustained decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year yield falls from 5.24% to below 5%, not just a 1-2 basis point fluctuation but a continuous downward trend. Before this, any rebound is a pulse, not a trend.
In terms of operations, BTC stabilizes with shrinking volume at $81,000-$82,000 plus ETF net inflows for 2-3 consecutive days; lightly try going long with a stop loss at $79,500 and a target of $83,400-$83,900. If the daily close breaks below $79,000, do not catch the falling knife. ETH’s current odds are not as good as BTC’s; $2,401 is the stop loss line, $2,636 is the first target, but under the background of systematic ETF withdrawal, this is only a short-term play, not a portfolio strategy.Observation: Both crypto and stocks are hit hard, no one can escape the macro drain
It's not just the crypto world taking a hit; U.S. tech stocks are equally brutal.
Micron (MU) fell 2.42%, SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 2.87%, SK Hynix (SKHYNIX) declined 2.61%, and the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL) plunged 4.01%. Even SpaceX (SPCX) fell 1%.
On the crypto side, BTC retreated to 81323, down 1.65%; ETH broke below 2421, plummeting 4.26%.
What exactly happened?
First, the U.S. dollar index surged to a high level, combined with Brent crude oil holding firm at $106, severely draining macro liquidity.
Second, Broadcom and Intel CEOs warned that AI infrastructure funding costs are too high, causing the market to question returns, directly hammering the semiconductor and tech sectors.
Third, the CPI data will be released tomorrow night, prompting large funds to collectively retreat to avoid risk.
Crypto and stocks move in tandem, sharing the same heat and cold. Big money is waiting for the macro shoe to drop; at this critical moment, watching more and acting less is better than anything else.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 BTC благополучно (для медведей) потерял устойчивый аптренд на 3- и 4-часовом ТФ. Базовые цели и уровни потенциального слома - на скринах. Как видно, самая дальняя базовая - 80 984$. Как уже писали, расцениваем это как подтверждение версии, что хаем отскока с 8 октября был максимум 12 октября, уровень 84 352$. И дальше снижение продолжится к новым локальным минимумам. На этом сигнале как и собирались - в очередной раз добрали свою августовскую шорт-позицию. Чем подняли уровень безубытка с 78 582,BTC 82,048｜84K failed to hold, the market has returned to a key support level.
BTC has fallen back near 82K again, indicating that selling pressure above remains heavy. Previously, support appeared around 80K, driving a price rebound, but to reopen upward momentum, it must first reclaim 83K and then break through 84K–84.5K. Conversely, 82K is the current short-term defensive line; if it fails and remains suppressed below, watch out for another test of 81K or even a pullback to 80K.
There is a key background to this volatility: the US September CPI will be released on October 14, and last week the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $681 million, so capital demand has not yet clearly recovered. Inflation data may change the market’s judgment on the Fed’s rate path, and changes in the dollar and yields will also affect BTC’s rebound strength. $BTC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
Contract strategy: first see if 82K can hold, then check if the rebound has sustainability. Only by standing back above 83K is there a chance to retest 84K; if 82K fails, be wary of expanded downside risk. The easiest mistake now is to mistake a rebound for a reversal or a drop for an inevitable continued decline.
This week’s direction may not be decided by technicals alone; CPI is the key hurdle the market must face next.
For market analysis only, not investment advice.Single Coin Contract Fluctuation｜Last 15 Minutes
$RSR decline accompanied by increased positions. Price -1.53%, position volume +4.19%; trading volume 1.95 million USDT, 2.0 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour.Originally planned to cut losses as a sacrifice, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the meat cooked itself. During the repeated oscillations in the market, $SOL every time it surged was just short of breath, with obvious resistance above, and sell orders pressing down layer by layer.
What I see is a weak rebound, not a breakout. I shorted directly near 109.61, and the prompt was straightforward: no one catches on the way up, don't get carried away. Afterwards, it dropped from 109.61 to 104.07, the short position gained +505.42%, this cut was satisfying.
First close 80%, pocket the big part, keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don't give the profit back.
Hold as long as the trend isn't broken; if it breaks, run. Don't fall in love with stocks.
Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair with pullbacks.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify immediately. Wait for the next shot.
$ADA $XRP $BTC daily chart has already approached the lower Bollinger Band at 81508. Currently, leveraged longs are continuously accumulating, with spot long borrowing far exceeding short selling. Long positions are clustered, but the price is not rising; instead, it is falling—a typical case of longs being passively trapped. If the decline continues, a large number of longs will be liquidated, accelerating the drop.
From October 10 to 13, net outflow was 165.94 BTC. On the 1-hour level, extra-large sell orders account for 39.09%. Leveraged longs are adding positions, while large spot funds are selling, showing a divergence between longs and shorts.
The market is broadly declining, with 365 assets down, trading volume surging, and market sentiment panicked. It's a widespread downturn with a very high money-losing effect.
Trading advice: If support breaks, wait for a pullback before entering. If it doesn't break, wait until after tomorrow's CPI release to choose a direction. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Morning Report 2026.10.13
BTC $81,789｜ETH $2,446｜SOL $105
As of October 13, 2026, the crypto market accelerated its decline, with the three major coins simultaneously hitting recent lows. ETF funds have fully withdrawn, awaiting CPI guidance.
📊 Major Asset Market
BTC: Around $81,789**. Total network open interest is **$55.05 billion, up slightly 1.28% in 24H. Price is falling while open interest rises, shorts are adding positions. Binance rate +0.0019%, OKX +0.0066%.
ETH: Around $2,446**, breaking below the lower boundary of the whale liquidation zone. **$2,401 is the critical line for bulls; breaking it will trigger $553 million long liquidation. Binance rate -0.0033%, OKX -0.0017%, shorts dominate.
SOL: Around $105**, 24H liquidations total **$10.89 million, longs account for 94%, bulls are suffering the harshest unilateral liquidation. Open interest $7.01 billion, down 3.91% in 24H, deleveraging is ongoing.
💡 Trading Suggestions
BTC: No rush to bottom-fish, wait for volume expansion and stabilization signals near $80,000.
ETH: $2,401 is the critical line; strictly exit if broken.
SOL: Do not chase shorts; wait for open interest to stabilize and rates to turn positive before reassessing.
Maintain low leverage and control positions before CPI release; avoid premature speculation. Observation: Panic sell-off stampede, the spot buying window is opening
BTC dropped to 81300, ETH fell below 2430, major altcoins all dropped over 4%
Market sentiment has hit rock bottom, the screen is full of voices cutting losses and exiting.
But from another perspective, this is precisely the opportunity to accumulate chips in spot.
Contracts face liquidation risk, while spot has no Damocles sword of forced liquidation
The pits created by emotional sell-offs are often entry tickets left for the patient.
However, tomorrow night’s CPI data has not yet been released, macro uncertainty remains huge
Gradually buying in batches is the only way to control risk; betting all in at once is prone to repeated friction.
Wait until the panic selling is completely cleared out, then the true bottom will emerge.W is very hot, but it can't yet be called a full recovery
$W has indeed shown obvious strength this time.
It has risen about 35% in the last 24 hours, about 66% in the past week, and the price has already brought up the stage performance.
I will increase my attention, but I won't raise the entire market's expectations just because one coin has surged.
Whether it can continue to rise and whether other coins can keep up need to be judged separately.
Right now, I want to see the support after the sharp rise.
If it stops and can stay at a higher level, there will be a foundation for further advancement; if the heat drops and it quickly falls back, the sustainability of this rise will be discounted.
$OP still has achievements within the week, but it is retreating in the short term.
It has dropped about 4.8% in the last 24 hours, but still risen about 2.7% in the past week; you can't judge strength by picking just one number.
My assessment is that the stage rise has not been completely lost, and for now, we watch the adjustment.
Later, it needs to stop the decline and resume active advancement, rather than relying on the strong judgment maintained by the past few days' results.
$BICO has not kept up with this heat for the time being.
It has dropped about 4.3% in the last 24 hours, about 15.2% in the past week, and also fallen about 6.3% within the month.
So I won't use "others have risen, it should rise too" as a reason to participate.
Catch-up gains need to have their own performance first. For now, watch more and act less; wait for the price to start improving before considering raising the ranking, and don't rely on imagination to turn differentiation into universal gains.$ETH this time the shorts finally got taken out!
ETH's liquidation this time was very intense, with a total of 160 million liquidated in 24 hours, 130 million long liquidations, and only 24.266 million short liquidations.
Whether it's 1 hour, 4 hours, or 12 hours, the volume of long liquidations overwhelmingly surpasses shorts, clearly indicating a sharp drop market where many longs chasing highs were wiped out. The few short liquidations show this was mainly a dump to harvest longs, making short-term long chasing extremely risky.
⚠️Risk warning: Liquidation data only records completed liquidations and cannot predict future market trends The total market cap dropped 4.91% in 24 hours, remaining at 2.76 trillion USD. $BTC only fell 2.67% to 81430, $ETH dropped 4.23%, and $SOL fell 5.93%. BTC dominance is 59.29%, with the overall market decline nearly twice that of Bitcoin, the excess pressure falling entirely on altcoins.
$STRK plunged 30.38% in one day, with a turnover rate of 61.11%, meaning 60% of its circulating market cap changed hands. $W dropped 14.92%, with a turnover rate of 232.61%. The deeper the drop, the larger the volume, indicating chips are moving out.
The only one going against the trend is $RSR, up 27.23%, with a turnover of 181.53%. Its funding rate is -1.16%, the most negative in the entire market; $BLUR also has -0.77%. Spot is pulling up, while shorts on perpetual contracts are paying to press it down; such readings usually lead to a retracement later.
In the next 48 hours, altcoins will continue to underperform Bitcoin. To flip bullish, two things must happen simultaneously: $BTC must hold 81430, and BTC dominance must drop from 59.29%. Watch $RSR’s funding rate; if -1.16% does not move back toward zero, this rally cannot hold.Market Breakdown: The Joys and Worries of Earnings Season, Multiple Tests for Risk Assets
Semiconductor Earnings Season: A Tale of Two Extremes
TSMC's Q3 revenue approaches NT$1.5 trillion, up 51% year-over-year, setting a record high for six consecutive quarters; Samsung's operating profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time, soaring nearly 8 times year-over-year. AI computing power demand continues to materialize, and memory chips enter a "money-printing moment." However, ASML's Q3 earnings report is about to be released, and whether EUV orders can support its AI premium has become a market focus.
Macro Geopolitics: US Treasury Alarm Raised
Trump announced a "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, but both sides have yet to officially confirm, and actual implementation is doubtful. More worrisome is PIMCO's warning that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6% under extreme scenarios, with high oil prices, stubborn inflation, and debt expansion forming a triple threat.
Crypto Market: Trust Crisis and Security Reflection
Institutions continue to increase holdings, with Strategy holdings reaching 848,000 BTC, yet prices remain under pressure. The Ledger theft investigation points to a single Southeast Asian distributor channel, involving nearly $93 million, exposing security weaknesses in the hardware wallet supply chain. Coupled with the US's plan to seize Iran-related crypto assets and security threats brought by AI and quantum computing, the industry is facing a critical window for rebuilding trust.
In summary, TSMC and ASML earnings will validate the strength of the AI narrative, the trajectory of US Treasury yields will determine the valuation center of risk assets, and the crypto market needs to find a new balance between security and compliance. $BTC $ETH experienced a volume surge with a sharp drop in the early morning: a large bearish candlestick on the 4-hour chart directly pierced through all EMA5/10/20 moving averages. BTC quickly dropped from around 83600 to 81300, while ETH fell from above 2550 to 2413, with a volatility close to 5%.
In terms of market structure, ETH is significantly weaker than BTC, with a 24-hour decline nearly three times that of BTC. There is a clear capital withdrawal from altcoins and public chain sectors, flowing back into BTC as a safe haven.
Short-term indicators have entered oversold territory; the 1-hour KDJ J value has fallen back near 0, indicating potential for a technical rebound. However, MACD green bars continue to expand across all timeframes, and moving averages show a bearish alignment. This rebound is likely a downward consolidation, so it is not advisable to rush to bottom fish.
Key support levels to watch: For BTC, the primary focus is whether 81300 can hold; if broken, the next target is 80400. For ETH, it is crucial to defend the 2400 whole number level. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ ETH又滑回2515了，最脆弱的那一环其实不是价格 你有没有发现，真正让人睡不着的从来不是跌了1%，而是杠杆还没洗干净？ 晚上看盘的时候，ETH就在2515附近晃，白天冲2550上方没站稳，跟着BTC一起往回吐。上周低点反弹的那口气，现在被市场慢慢消化。表面看只是普通回踩，但衍生品那边藏着更真实的故事。 关键位置先摆出来。 - 支撑在2480到2500，再往下是2460。 - 上方压力2550到2580，然后是2600。 - 守住2500，短线结构还能撑住；丢了，可能再往2450探一脚。 为什么我盯着这些数字却更在意持仓和资金费率？因为反弹之后如果费率还是正的、多头仓位又堆得高，那这波回落就不是简单回调，而是挤压的引信。价格没破位，但杠杆结构先变脆了。一旦2480附近被快速打穿，止损和强平会叠在一起，跌势会比K线看起来更急。 偏多的路径也在：只要2500能收回去，费率降温、持仓减轻，ETH反而能靠现货买盘重新组织进攻，带动山寨情绪修复。BTC那边如果稳住，风险偏好会慢慢回来，但这需要时间，不是一根阳线能解决。 容易被忽略的是，市场现在交易的不是方向，而是仓位健康度。上周低点反弹让很多人$BTC: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 81,900-82,300 range (EMA5/EMA10 and dense long cost resistance zone) and then enter short.
· The target is first 81,247 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then look at the previous low of 80,351. Set stop loss above 82,700 (EMA20).
Core basis:
1. Moving average bearish pressure: On the 1-hour level, EMA5 (82,037), EMA10 (82,345), and EMA20 (82,700) diverge downward, price runs below all three lines, with highs continuously moving lower since the peak at 86,656, clearly indicating a weak trend.
2. Main force chip hunting: Smart money data shows longs are extremely crowded (1.96B), average cost 82,302. Current price has fallen below the long cost line, longs are at a loss. The main force is highly likely to dump downward, triggering nearly 1.96 billion in long stop losses, causing a cascade.
3. Poor volume-price coordination: The downtrend was accompanied by volume expansion; current low-level rebound volume is extremely weak, indicating weak long support and heavy trapped positions above. Following the trend to short offers an excellent risk-reward ratio.
$ETH $ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 The core catalyst this week is the US CPI data on October 14. If inflation is high, the US dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and BTC may retest $80,000–$81,000; if the data is moderate, there is a chance to retake $84,000–$85,000.
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw significant net outflows, with institutional funds being cautious in the short term; however, whale addresses are still accumulating at low levels, showing an on-chain divergence of "institutional outflows, large holders accumulating." The crypto world is truly the biggest mental asylum in human financial history.
Bitcoin rises 2%, bulls start researching buying property in Dubai.
Bitcoin falls 2%, bears start studying global financial crises.
Up 5%, some declare the dollar system is about to collapse.
Down 5%, some declare Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme.
The most abstract part is:
Bulls losing money say they are long-term thinkers.
Bears getting liquidated say they are hedging systemic risk.
Spot holders stuck say they are positioning for the future.
Contract holders wiped out say they paid their tuition in cognitive lessons.
A group of people study the Federal Reserve every day, yet in the end, they don’t even understand their own positions.
Bitcoin might not know where it’s headed.
But everyone in crypto knows they will be financially free tomorrow.
I now seriously suspect the biggest consensus in crypto isn’t Bitcoin, but that everyone thinks the others are fools.
If you disagree, come debate—first disclose your position, not your beliefs.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 The rebound is just a breather; verification is still underway
After the panic sell-off on October 9, market sentiment warmed up: total market cap returned to $2.89 trillion, and the greed index rose to 56. But recovery does not equal reversal—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $485 million and $244 million on consecutive days, institutions are retreating, and retail investors are on the sidelines.
$BTC hovers around 84,000, with 83,000 being both the average ETF cost and the dividing line between bulls and bears. There is dense trapped volume above; only a strong volume close above counts as a breakout. Support is at 77,000, with the market betting a 67% chance of falling below 80,000 in October. $ETH is around 2,566, with a decline far exceeding BTC; the ETF has lost value for six days, and the 2,550–2,600 range is a resistance zone—failure to break through may lead to a retest of 2,470 or even 2,400. $SOL is about 113, showing short-term strength; the key is whether buying pressure can continue. $ZEC is around 1,265; Grayscale ETFs and privacy narratives bring high volatility, but profit-taking pressure is significant.
Next, it depends on two things: whether inflation data will again exceed expectations, and whether the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire is real. In terms of operations, don’t rush to chase; watch if BTC can hold above 83,000 with volume, see if ETH can recover 2,600, check if funds will continue to support SOL, and note that ZEC is volatile but avoid catching the last leg. Treat the rebound as just a rebound and wait for a pullback confirmation before acting.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $W has entered the oversold zone; a rebound and a bottom are two different things.
$W is down 15.96% in 24 hours, currently priced at 0.01864. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 8 and 52 respectively. Oversold conditions can trigger rebound demand, but a rebound only indicates a sharp drop; a bottom requires the price to stop breaking the structure.
Volume does not support the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.15 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can also move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or one long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
Looking back at the 24-hour range: the low is 0.01864, the high is 0.03175. The current price at 0.01864’s position within this range directly affects the meaning of the same signal. When near the high, strength needs to prove it’s not a spike followed by a fall; when near the low, a rebound needs to prove it’s not a continuation of the downtrend. The range is not a forecast target, but a tool to check whether the current narrative is hiding risks.$BTC Wave B major top (87000) if confirmed as the peak of this rebound, counting from the top, the 12–18 month range is the time window for the major bottom to appear.
The high point is in the second half of 2026; pushing forward 12–18 months, the major bottom falls in the first half of 2027, which exactly matches the timeline we previously projected.
What you are saying now: the next 6 months (October 2026 — April 2027) is the window period for the major bottom to manifest, and this projection aligns with this cycle framework.
First half (November, December): Wave C main decline releases selling pressure, with multiple false rebounds (dead cat bounces) along the way, continuously clearing out funds chasing highs.
• Second half (early 2027): Main decline ends with the ultimate low, followed by sideways consolidation at low levels, repeatedly faking breakouts to wear down bottom-fishers' patience.
After 6 months (second half of 2027): Bottom formation completes, awaiting liquidity to warm up.
The bottom consolidation fully digests the trapped positions from Wave B at 87000. From a macro perspective, the Fed's rate cut cycle lands, long-term US Treasury yields decline, risk asset valuations recover, then a new major upward rally will start.
Two key premises for this timing cycle to hold:
1. 87000 must be confirmed as a valid Wave B top.
That is, BTC must subsequently break below 57000 on the weekly chart to confirm the Wave C structure.
If the market holds above 57000 and it's only a medium-term correction, then 87000 is not the major top, and this 12–18 month bottom-seeking cycle is invalid. The market will consolidate for a few months and then challenge new highs again.
2. No unexpected massive macro black swan events.
If extreme inflation or a global liquidity crisis occurs, the down cycle will lengthen and the bottom timing will be delayed; if inflation falls rapidly and liquidity loosens early, the bottom may appear earlier, not necessarily waiting until the first half of 2027. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
$BTC The core focus this week is the US September CPI and PPI inflation data. As the Federal Reserve meeting approaches at the end of the month, the data will rewrite expectations for rate hikes or cuts, driving sharp volatility in cryptocurrencies and gold.
CPI reflects end consumer prices, while PPI reflects upstream production costs. Only by combining both can we judge whether inflation is truly easing or just a short-term illusion.
Currently, the market is only undergoing an oversold correction, not a trend reversal. Early in the week, there is no major data, so the market mainly plays on expectations. The market will most likely fluctuate and shake out positions, with frequent long and short traps. Do not mistake test fluctuations for a directional move.
$ETH $ZEC I have closed my positions in Ethereum and small Bitcoin; the pattern is no longer favorable. I’m taking profits first and will go long again if the decline continues. Currently, Bitcoin is still looking at 86000 SK Hynix suddenly plummets: It's not a fundamental collapse, but the chips loosened first
Among the three major memory manufacturers, SK Hynix has fallen the most sharply this round.
Many people's first reaction: Is the AI storage logic gone? Actually, not entirely.
The real trigger is the change in capital structure: foreign capital continues to sell, the large buyback dividends that previously supported the stock price have basically faded, and a large amount of passive buying support is missing. Coupled with active retail trading in the Korean market itself, once expectations waver slightly, turnover rises rapidly, floating chips increase suddenly, and a "long liquidation" rapid drop can easily occur.
One key point to note: SK Hynix has the highest proportion of HBM, with many orders under long-term contracts. The spot price increase dividends are actually less direct than those of Micron and SanDisk, and the market is beginning to reassess its profit elasticity.
Now it's not simply about "good or bad," but the market has shifted from blindly bullish to testing chip stability through turnover rate.
High turnover = increased divergence: if turnover quickly falls after a drop, it indicates selling pressure is gradually exhausted; if it remains high, the time for a bottoming consolidation may be extended.
The long memory cycle remains, but the era of high volatility has arrived, and the risk of heavily betting on a one-sided move has clearly increased. Originally, I planned to liquidate all my Trump tokens before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd, whether at a profit or a loss. This morning, Bitcoin and Ethereum started to decline steadily, and the market gave me a strong sense of a severe downturn.
Today is already October 13th, just 20 days away from November 3rd, so stopping losses today is reasonable. The Trump project team is really disappointing—they only know how to dump and sell. Despite such a good midterm election bullish factor, they didn’t push the price up, which is frustrating.
But I also made mistakes. Trump token peaked at 3.6 this round. According to my trading rules, I should have cut my position in half, entering at 1.8. If I had strictly followed my trading discipline, the current price near 1.8 wouldn’t have caused me much loss.
At that time, I was also influenced by the market’s FOMO sentiment. Bitcoin and Ethereum surged wildly, on-chain small tokens across various chains were pumping, and tokens on the RH chain were pumping even harder. I only had two layers of positions on board, so I got a bit anxious and ended up chasing Trump at a high price. When I stopped losses today, I lost over 800 dollars, nearly 6000 RMB, which is quite a lot. Now, I have a clear concept of money and am no longer as extravagant or clueless as before. Feel the sentiment of the $ZEC market; on October 13, the bulls were almost buried.
The market is crazily trading on privacy expectations, with funds concentrated on speculating in a pulse rally, and the sentiment is extremely frenzied.
Such obvious bullish news often traps traders. I saw the overheated sentiment and directly opened a 50x short at 1265.12.
Sure enough, it surged then fell back, with the mark price at 1166.49, recording a profit of +389.80%.
Looking ahead, after the heat subsides and no one takes over, it will drift down quietly. Never mistake an oversold rebound for a trend reversal. $BTC $ETH $ZEC currently lacks directional views, what it lacks are verifiable conditions.
Scenario one: Break through 1,349.3 and hold, indicating the continuation of a weak structure. Scenario two: Break below 1,150.45, invalidating the short-term logic.
Current price 1,158.5, about 0.69% away from the 1-hour support at 1,150.45, about 16.47% away from the resistance at 1,349.3. 1-hour is weak, 4-hour is weak, RSI are 8 and 37 respectively. Volume is 0.62 times, currently only responsible for providing clues, not for drawing conclusions about the price.
With these two scenarios laid out, do you think the upper confirmation or the lower invalidation will trigger first?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.8-Hour Strategy Review｜2026-10-13｜Minimalist Review
Statistics Period: 2026-10-13 00:00 to 2026-10-13 08:00 (Asia/Singapore, excluding end time)
Contract: BTC-USDT-SWAP
Exchange Trade Receipts: 0 entries
Open or Add Position Trades: 0 entries
Close Position Trades: 0 entries
Receipts have been paginated, verified, and deduplicated by trade ID; partial trades are counted by receipt entries, which do not equal order count.
Less speculation, retaining verifiable facts.
No trades found in this period does not mean no trades occurred all day, nor does it mean no positions were held.
Signal count, account balance, and net profit/loss were not individually verified this round and are not conclusive.
For strategy testing and real trade record purposes only, not investment advice. Starting with a single chart,
all content is made up.
With Bitcoin's current trend,
all the profits from the past few days have been lost again.
If I had exited last night,
this trade wouldn't have lost.
And the unrealized loss rebounded,
closing the position is exactly the value of ultra-short-term trading.
Caught the morning's dip,
couldn't withstand the pressure.
Stop loss on unrealized loss,
ultra-short-term trading that can't go back.Finally able to understand why some people are staunch leaders of the short side; it feels like these coins are no different from meme coins, the crazier they rise, the deeper they can fall. Essentially, they are all worthless gimmicks. If you find the right opportunity to enter, and can withstand the liquidation price with sufficient capital, you can always make money from the shorts. The fate of cryptocurrency is to go short.High-leverage contracts are all about the thrill, and this $SOL trade hit the rhythm just right.
Facing macro pressure and chip clearing in October, the market is extremely volatile, and a slight mistake can lead to liquidation.
Considering the overbought indicators and capital outflow, I strictly controlled my position and opened a 100x short at 108.93.
The price dropped to 104.5, yielding a 406.68% profit.
Before and after the upcoming event, the market will likely experience intense shakeouts, so it's recommended to reduce the frequency of opening positions and prioritize protecting profits. $ZEC $BTC Using 100u for fully automated $ETH trading, Day 54 (08:15)｜Price is falling, positions are being withdrawn
A couple of days ago I mentioned trying 2410, but didn’t get to it and even chased a high; was a day late. At 8 AM it dropped to 2412, what’s meant to come will come.
Yesterday I asked, "After closing, is there new money coming in?" The answer came today: no. 2508, 2470, 2440 were broken one by one, open interest has dropped for two consecutive days, spot ETF has had net outflows for 9 days straight, nearly 700 million out.
2578 didn’t reach the 4-hour moving average, daily chart left a 50-point long upper shadow; the lower bands of three timeframes were all crowded around 2480 but didn’t hold, dropping to the support point mentioned yesterday. The lower band flipped to resistance, rebound will first look at 2480.
The daytime surge was short-sellers being swept out, 131 million swept in one hour, 85% shorts; after the sweep no one took over, so it dropped back; total long and short sweeps for the day reached 687 million.
Chips are still changing hands: retail traders remain 65% long, unchanged; big players’ short positions haven’t further retreated, shorts still dominate.
$BTC $ZEC
🤖 It’s quite comfortable here during the day, longs are exiting in batches during the rise, concentrated around 2560 turnover. Nighttime shorts are also opened well, placed before the breakdown—shorts were placed around 2525, also exited in batches during the decline. Taking over longs isn’t as comfortable, they’ve been taken over throughout the decline, current position is okay, just hanging on.$BLUR BLUR is currently at 0.01352, news of "frontend deprecation" triggered liquidations, the market is in chaos. The daily chart shows strong bearish momentum, but don't chase the bottom, control your trades.
Playing with 0.58U, placing a short order at 0.01405 waiting for a rebound, stop loss at 0.0146 to cut losses immediately; if it doesn't rebound, this trade is dead. The order is set to auto-pilot, go have a coffee, let it fall however it wants.Reviewing the $NEAR contract on October 13, data doesn't lie.
Although there are calls for ETF listings and supply reduction proposals, the price has risen too quickly recently, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking.
A short-term pump triggered short liquidations, but I analyzed severe overbuying and reversed to open a 50x short at 5.575.
The price quickly dropped back to 5.122, with a floating profit of 406.27% on the account.
Looking ahead, with insufficient capital support and cautious market sentiment, after breaking the high, it will be a slow decline, so remain cautious. $W $SOL Veteran crypto traders see the $PUMP move this time as purely a matter of experience.
In October, this coin rode the Meme hype and surged, leading many to think it would double again and rush in to catch the top.
In reality, the unlocking sell pressure is huge, and after the positive news is overdrawn, it’s just a mess. I think it can’t be pushed up, so I decisively shorted 50x at 0.005412.
Subsequently, the coin price dropped to 0.004948 as expected, and the position profit soared to 428.67%.
If there is no actual buyback effort in the future, this highly volatile asset will most likely continue to drift downwards, so don’t blindly bottom-fish. $BTC $ETH BTC rebound failed again, near 80,000 I actually don't want to make rash moves
Yesterday it bounced from 80,400 to 84,000, I thought it could hold a bit longer, but this morning it dropped back to 81,400
This market is quite difficult to trade now, if you chase shorts, 80,400 below is already very close; if you try to bottom-fish directly, the 4-hour chart clearly still shows a bearish structure.
So my own idea is simple: don't chase shorts before 80,400 breaks, if it really returns near 80,000 then see if it can stop falling.
If it can hold and then reclaim 82,000, this rebound still has potential; if 80,400 is decisively broken, then just keep waiting.
The easiest way to lose money these days is not the lack of market movement, but thinking every rebound is the bottom. $BTC BTC short at 84100 is profitable
Last month's Micron MU short at 1090
SNDK SanDisk short at 1900 continues to be profitable $BTC $PUMP dropped 12.18% in one day, but I’m actually bullish. When analyzing the chip distribution, I saw a rare scene: the price was falling, but big money was absorbing the market, right at the point where it retraced 27% from the 90-day high. The selling pressure was fully released within a day, and the chips from the drop were taken up—this price level is recognized by some. The structure of $PUMP is bullish over the next 24 hours; the downtrend stops here, and it will stabilize and recover next.$BLUR BLUR midnight raid, a single spike shatters the bulls
Bro, this midnight dump really messes with your mindset. BLUR plunged 25% in a cliff dive from 0.019 straight down to 0.0135, not even giving time to react.
The 15-minute chart drew a door, a deep red long wick with no pullback at all. The most ironic part is that the news feed still had a podcast interview hanging there saying "the market will still rise 10x," but the manipulator flipped the table.
On the eve of CPI, funds seek safety, altcoins are basically cash machines, liquidity dried up at midnight, and the manipulator could break through defenses at extremely low cost.
This late-night sneak attack was clearly a precise demolition of the bulls' leverage. Doing this in the dead of night, the whole story is written in the candlestick chart.Reviewing the $STRK contract on October 13, data doesn't lie.
Although there's talk of a big story in the Layer 2 network ecosystem, the overall market has been undergoing a correction and clearing recently.
A short-term pump triggered massive short liquidations, but I analyzed severe overbuying and reversed to open a 50x short at 0.09321.
The price quickly dropped back to 0.08514, with a floating profit of 432.89% on the books.
Looking ahead, with insufficient capital support and cautious market sentiment, such high-level sideways consolidation followed by a breakdown usually leads to a slow decline, so stay cautious. $W $SOL $SNDK This morning Hynix directly fell below 1150, and SanDisk also followed down, with the lowest point hitting 1427.6. It feels very similar to mid-July, with Hynix plummeting during the day dragging SanDisk down, and SanDisk falling even more at night dragging Hynix down 🤣Watching the $W trend, the spike and pullback line on October 13 is very interesting.
The fundamentals have a cross-chain narrative, with short-term funds violently pushing up, but the indicators have long shown severe overbought conditions.
The heavy sell pressure from trapped positions above makes it impossible to pull up, so I chose to go against the trend and placed a 20x short at 0.024.
The market quickly reversed downward, current price is 0.018825, with a profit of +431.24%.
Next, focus on the key support level; if it breaks, a catch-up drop may accelerate. Without real funds stepping in, the trend is hard to reverse. $BTC $ETH The market spends 80% of the time either declining or moving sideways, with actual upward trends only about 20%! Sometimes even 10% or less. So, being fully invested at the bottom and patiently holding until the top is the way to make big profits. During this period, many people sell due to small profits, psychological fear, or seeing opportunities in swing trading, then plan to buy back at what they think is a low point later, but end up missing the entire bull market. Or they hesitate to sell at the peak, fail to recognize the trend reversal, and after the price crashes, they wait for a rebound to the high point to sell, only to be trapped throughout the bear market! I've experienced both situations. So be cautious! October 13 Morning Session｜OKX Spot 08:07 (Beijing, USDT)
The three coins continued to decline overnight, all below the 20 moving averages on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts. BTC's trading volume in the last 3 full hours is 2.83 times that of the previous 3 hours.
BTC 81,458 (24h -2.71%), holding above 81,767 targets 82,273; if it falls below 81,337, watch for a retest of 80,400.
ETH 2,425 (-4.40%), holding above 2,443 targets 2,472; breaking below 2,417 targets 2,406.
ZEC 1,158 (-9.47%), holding above 1,187 targets 1,205; if it falls below 1,152, watch for another test of 1,112.
Federal Reserve official website: Overnight Hammack advocates restrictive policy, which is a personal view; BLS schedule: US CPI will be released tomorrow night at 20:30. Farside's 10/12 ETF data is incomplete. Strategy announced yesterday an increase of 250 BTC last week; institutional accumulation does not equal a short-term bottom.
My ZEC position is a 15x perpetual short, attached is the new card at 08:05; BTC and ETH contract positions are not detected for sharing. Today, watch for rebound volume; holding shorts also beware of a short squeeze. #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% Bearish Warning: Altcoins Plunge Together, Is the 1011 Scenario About to Replay?
Buddy, seeing BTC stubbornly holding at 81368, while ETH and other altcoins all drop over 4%, this sea of green on the screen is indeed unsettling.
But don’t rush to compare it to last year’s 1011.
The similarity is macro liquidity drain, long leverage being liquidated en masse, and illiquid altcoins falling the hardest.
But the scale is vastly different; last year BTC crashed 12% in half an hour, with 19 billion in liquidations across the network—that was a chain reaction triggered by stablecoin depegging.
Today BTC only dropped 1.5%, with 550 million liquidated, more like routine risk-off positioning ahead of the CPI major test.
Still getting hit, but this time it’s nowhere near a systemic collapse.
Don’t get swept away by panic; first, let’s see how tomorrow night’s CPI plays out.1572。这个数字现在像一根刺，扎在SNDK多头的心里。 为什么每次刚有点起色，就立刻被按回去？ 我盯着盘面看了一会儿，那种感觉不是普通的回调，更像有人守在1600门口，只要价格一探头，就立刻被一巴掌拍下来。1500附近确实有承接，但那种承接很勉强，像冬天里只剩最后一层薄冰，踩上去没碎，不代表安全。 市场在交易什么？表面看是CPI和PPI公布前的谨慎情绪，加息预期反复拉扯。但奇怪的是，同样面临宏观压力，其他美股并没有像SanDisk这样，走出一种被定点狙击的节奏。这就值得多想一层了。 偏多的逻辑是：1500如果真是有效支撑，那这波反复测试反而是在洗掉不坚定的筹码。一旦宏观数据落地、加息预期缓和，被压得最狠的标的，反弹弹性也可能最大。空头越拥挤，回补时的推力越猛。 但风险恰恰也在这里。如果1600上方的卖压不是短期情绪，而是有资金在系统性做空，那1500的支撑就只是心理安慰。一旦跌破，触发的可能不是抄底盘，而是止损盘和追空盘叠加，往下会很快。 我觉得现在最该做的不是猜方向，而是把仓位管好。这种被反复压制的走势，最怕的就是重仓赌突破。轻仓观察，等它真正站稳1600上方再考虑跟，比在1500On October 13, $FIL experienced intense market volatility, with bulls and bears fiercely competing.
Recently, the market has been hyping the halving expectation on October 15, when token release ends and supply suddenly drops by 75%.
But from a technical perspective, the RSI is already severely overbought, so I think the positive news has been priced in early. I opened a 50x short position at 1.205.
As a result, after a spike and pullback, the mark price dropped to 1.0892, and the short position gained a floating profit of 480.49%.
Looking ahead, with the halving clearly in place, it’s easy to trigger profit-taking selling. Demand won’t keep up, so the rebound is still bearish. $ZEC $MAGIC What’s next for Bitcoin?
1. Check the Bitcoin $BTC liquidation map
Below, the cumulative long liquidation strength is $1.3 billion; above, the cumulative short liquidation strength is $1 billion.
2. Key price levels to watch
· 83,000: Dropping to this level will trigger the first wave of strong long liquidations, which will accelerate the decline and create a chain reaction.
· 82,000: The second dense zone for longs. If the first wave doesn’t stop the drop, this is the next barrier.
· 84,700: The first resistance above. Breaking through here will start squeezing the shorts.
· 85,300: The second resistance above, the main gathering area for short positions.
3. Possible price movements
Upward path: Break above 84,700 → squeeze shorts between 85,177–85,333 → short covering itself is buying pressure, possibly pushing price toward around 85,865. Downward path: Break below 82,952 → trigger the main dense zone at 82,240 → this is the strongest long position bar on the entire map. Once a chain of strong liquidations opens, scattered positions remain down to 81,528, so the buffer is thin.
4. My judgment: I lean toward an initial rise, as resistance is lighter in this direction.
The short dense zone is closer to the current price, with a lower trigger cost; while the strongest support at 82,240 is still 2.2% away, requiring breaking two minor supports first.
Do you think it will sweep the top first or the bottom first? #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Brothers, BTC and ETH have taken another hit, ETH directly smashed through 2450.
$BTC $81,300 | $ETH $2,420
Bitcoin slid from above 84,000 down to 81,300, Ethereum broke below 2,450, dropping over 2.9% in 24 hours. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $498 million, with longs accounting for 83%, and 120,000 people wiped out. ETH liquidations topped at $58.14 million, 64% of which were longs.
Middle East situation + stronger dollar, risk assets collectively hammered
The trigger is the escalation in the Middle East. Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil facilities, Brent crude surged to $106, and the dollar index soared to an 18-month high. The 10-year US Treasury yield stabilized at 5.3%, continuously squeezing non-yielding assets.
ETF funds are still flowing out. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, losing a total of $542 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA alone losing $477 million. Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $681 million last week, totaling $386 million outflows since October. Funds are waiting for tomorrow night's CPI, unwilling to act rashly.
Technically, ETH's 2,400 is a psychological barrier and a dense liquidation zone for longs; breaking below may trigger a chain reaction. For BTC, watch the 80,500-81,000 support zone below.
Discuss in the comments, are you willing to buy this dip? 👇
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验