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Many people are still waiting for positive news to drive Bitcoin higher, but the external environment has quietly shifted. U.S. inflation data has risen again, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates have increased, the dollar has strengthened, and funds are beginning to withdraw from high-risk assets. The inflow of spot ETF funds that previously drove the rise has clearly slowed, institutional participation is much weaker than before, and the previous surge lacked sustained capital support.
Leverage is heavily stacked in the market now, with a large number of long positions recently liquidated, showing the pressure on bulls holding positions. Even with occasional policy benefits, it is difficult to reverse the major trend of capital outflow. Many people are gambling on a rebound by bottom-fishing, but they are easily trapped by short-term minor pullbacks.
Overall market risk appetite is declining, this round of the downtrend is far from over, and the outlook remains bearish. Do not blindly bottom-fish; entering against the trend carries high risk. Be patient and wait for further declines.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The crypto market surged by $840 billion in three months.
But spot trading volume actually dropped by 14.2%.
Prices rose 40%, but the amount of money traded decreased. This is called a fake rally.
The real risk lies in futures: open interest reached $102.2 billion.
Most of it is leveraged. When the price falls to a certain level, the system automatically sells for you. After selling, the price crashes even lower, triggering more automatic sell-offs.
The last time this number exceeded $100 billion was in May 2025.
After that: forced liquidations of $19 billion, and Bitcoin dropped 14.5% in three days.
This is not a crash countdown.
But on October 28, the day of the Federal Reserve decision, it could ignite.
How much do you still have?$OKB essentially can be increased to 210 billion in the backend because it only circulates on this one platform, and almost no one will withdraw the coins, right? So there's no way to prevent the platform from acting maliciously; after all, it's all just transaction data, so even if they increase the supply by 10 times in the backend, you wouldn't notice.Big Brother Maji's recent portfolio adjustment really signals a shift in the wind.
He used to basically go all-in on longs, but this time it's different. The total contract position is about 59.76 million U, split directly into three parts: short BTC, short HYPE, and long ETH.
A few details:
$BTC 40x short, opened at 84070, currently floating profit around 220,000 U, but funding fees have cost 56,600 U. Position dominant, but with 40x leverage, even a small price bounce can be painful, so don't just look at the floating profit.
$ETH 25x long, opened at 2541, currently floating loss of 340,000 U. The market is weak but he's still holding longs—either betting on ETH catching up or using it for portfolio hedging. Unfortunately, there was a strong spike this morning, suspected to be targeting Big Brother Maji's position!
$HYPE is the harshest: 5x short, opened at 65.8, floating loss of 4.21 million U, though funding fees collected 1.03 million U. These fees help ease the cost a bit, but can't withstand price volatility. Don't think collecting fees means it's stable. So I think this isn't a full bearish stance, more like he's differentiating directions among different coins.
Watch three points going forward: can BTC stabilize, can ETH rise, and can the HYPE short hold up. You can observe smart money's positions, but don't blindly copy. What really matters is why he's positioning this way, not just following because he buys. The market is still falling, but $ZK managed to generate proofs for 7,200 consecutive Ethereum blocks with just one graphics card, with 99% of the proofs completed within 10 seconds, rising about 12% against the trend. Meanwhile, $ARB and $OP, which are also in the L2 track, weakened. But does strong technology necessarily mean it's worth chasing? ZKsync Era's DeFi locked value is only about $15 million, far below ARB and OP. More importantly, the originally planned cross-chain fee mechanism has not been activated after the v31 adjustment, so token demand may not necessarily increase. However, the top ten addresses already occupy nearly 51%, so personally, I think the current state is more like being controlled by major holders. Therefore, I admit that ZK is stronger than others in the same series in the short term, but I tend to believe it is driven by a combination of technical benefits and trading capital.The story of AI eating into storage has been going on for almost a year. After last week's revelation that Samsung's performance might fall short of expectations, storage stocks collectively pulled back this week.
Fortunately, Micron $MU has the hard chip of HBM supporting it, so it only dropped 5% this week; SK Hynix $SKHYNIX fell 10% due to profit-taking; SanDisk $SNDK suffered badly, relying purely on the NAND story, with funds panicking and dumping nearly 20%.
1. Micron is the most resistant to decline. HBM is in severe shortage, with over 75% of 2027 capacity locked in, so institutional target prices keep rising. The short-term pressure on the stock price is only due to the supply risk from the Taiwan factory strike.
2. SanDisk is the worst off, down 18% in a week. Because it purely focuses on NAND, the market is deflating the NAND bubble and even talking about the cycle peaking. Naturally, it fell the most. The last quarterly report showed a gross margin of 84.6%, which is quite good, and the forward PE is only 7.5 times. It depends on whether its report on the 29th can be strong.
3. SK Hynix's RSI is 27, indicating the stock price was hammered down by profit-taking. Fortunately, its HBM4 is already supplying NVIDIA, with a share close to 58%, so people have confidence in it and there is no panic selling. Also, its PE is only 3.1 times, very cheap.
As for which stock to buy, it depends on which one can get good news first: MU needs to resolve the strike issue; SanDisk needs to deliver better-than-expected earnings in the report; SK Hynix needs profit-taking to stop. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $BTC is once again testing the 80,000 integer level, continue to observe
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 net profit significantly exceeded market consensus, with single-quarter earnings hitting a record high. The core driver is the sustained high demand for AI computing power chips, full orders for advanced processes, with both revenue and profit increasing. Meanwhile, the Q4 revenue guidance has been raised, and the full-year revenue growth target has been lifted, confirming the strong certainty of advanced wafer foundry under the AI capital expenditure cycle, with fundamentals remaining strong. From a trading perspective, the earnings delivery is positive, but caution is needed against the short-term game of "buying expectations, selling facts." The stock price has partially priced in AI high growth in advance, so after the earnings report, short-term profit-taking fluctuations are likely.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the company remains the world's most advanced wafer foundry with the highest barriers in advanced processes. The 2nm process is gradually ramping up, and AI high computing power orders continue to be received, so the main growth logic remains intact; however, two major suppressing factors need close monitoring: first, the phased dilution of gross margin caused by the 2nm mass production ramp-up; second, the potential risks from capital expenditure increases due to building factories overseas, geopolitical policy changes, and the subsequent slowdown in AI customer capital expenditure rhythm, which will affect long-term profit expectations and valuation midpoints.TSMC's Q3 earnings far exceeded expectations, but the stock price fell in response, a typical case of "good news priced in."
Behind the impressive earnings report lies a dual nature: on one hand, 2nm process steadily ramps up, the share of advanced processes increases, AI chip demand remains strong, and the short-term fundamentals are impeccable; on the other hand, risks are also prominent, with performance highly tied to a few major AI clients, US factory construction driving up long-term costs, and geopolitical uncertainties persisting. Short-term benefits have been realized, and the market is beginning to price in long-term risks. Going forward, focus will be on capital expenditures and the sustainability of customer orders. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 美国经济数据集体拿高分，美元和美债收益率却往下走。华尔街看完成绩单，开始怀疑考生是不是靠借钱撑出来的。 9月CPI同比3.7%，PPI同比6.3%，零售销售环比增长0.8%。 数字看起来相当漂亮。 可仔细看，事情就没那么简单。 汽油涨价推高零售金额，剔除部分波动项目的核心消费控制组只增长0.1%。 居民花出去的钱更多，不一定代表买到的东西更多。 更何况，物价上涨与实际收入压力同时存在。 于是市场出现了少见的分歧： 美元指数回落至102.03附近。 10年期美债收益率降至约5.085%。 黄金一度上涨1.3%，至4156美元附近。 BTC却仍然承压，曾跌至80,247美元附近。 这说明资金在重新权衡两件事： 通胀会不会逼迫美联储继续加息，以及高利率会不会反过来伤害经济增长。 🔮 今晚Web3资金观察 BTC｜宏观防守 美元回落没有立即带来加密买盘，先观察80,000美元附近承接与OI变化。 XRP｜机构资金观察 比较XRP/BTC相对强弱，以及稳定币基础设施新闻能否转化为实际成交需求。 LINK｜链上金融基础设施 关注金融机构真实采用情况、成📊 US PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, BTC dropped toward 80,000! But I don't think the entire decline can be blamed on inflation
Tonight, the US September PPI is officially released:
Overall PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year; excluding food, energy, and trade services, the monthly increase still reached 0.5%.
This is indeed a warning signal for inflation.
BTC's 24-hour decline includes trading before the PPI release, so we cannot directly say that the entire 2.14% drop was caused by the PPI.
Another piece of evidence comes from ETFs.
On 10/13, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $175.7 million, but on 10/14 it turned into a net outflow of $261.4 million.
Unstable capital demand, combined with inflation possibly affecting interest rate expectations, creates more resistance for the rebound.
Currently bearish, but not enough to confirm a larger-scale downtrend has started.
If BTC effectively breaks below $80,000 and fails to recover, the downside risk will increase.
Conversely, if it reclaims $82,500, a reassessment of the short-term structure will be needed.
What to track next: whether US Treasury yields and spot buying change synchronously after the PPI release.
The data tells us what happened; the subsequent price and capital reactions help judge if the trend has changed.
Do you think the current $BTC price already reflects the inflation risk?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Is history always astonishingly similar? The "midterm election curse" of the US stock market and Bitcoin
Looking back at the past few rounds:
🔹 2014: 71 days after the midterm election, BTC hit bottom
🔹 2018: 39 days after the midterm election, BTC hit bottom
🔹 2022: 13 days after the midterm election, BTC hit bottom
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days, the data doesn't lie:
1️⃣ Institutionalization accelerates: capital no longer waits for long certainty, front-running becomes the norm.
2️⃣ Deepening macro linkage: the policy implementation period after the midterm election is the moment of liquidity restructuring. An interesting phenomenon: the bottoming time seems to be getting earlier.
Will there be new changes in 2026?
But I am more concerned about three questions:
1️⃣ Has macro liquidity started to improve?
2️⃣ When BTC falls, is OI increasing or decreasing?
3️⃣ When the market is generally bearish, does the price start to refuse new lows?
If the price falls and OI decreases, it may indicate deleveraging; if price stabilization and active buying follow, it is worth further observing reversal opportunities.
Historical cycles can only provide clues; capital behavior is the verification signal.
In 2026, do you think the Bitcoin cycle bottom is already near? $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压 Two big inflation blows have shattered the rate cut fantasy.
① CPI strikes first: September CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, exceeding the expected 3.6%, gasoline surged 9.1% in a single month, and core CPI at 2.6% also beat expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped overnight from 22% to nearly 50%.
② PPI delivers another blow: September PPI year-on-year at 6.3%, month-on-month 1.3%, both crushing expectations (5.3%/0.5%), the strongest since the end of 2022. Upstream price increases are starting to pass downstream, confirming inflation stickiness.
③ Pain in the crypto world: Bitcoin fell below 81,000, briefly touching 80,200; ETH plunged 6% to around 2,350. Nearly $1 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions—those chasing longs were collectively wiped out by a single data point. Spot ETFs saw simultaneous net outflows.
Remember this chain: Inflation exceeds expectations → rate hike expectations heat up → US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens → funds exit high-volatility assets. Bitcoin is no longer a "digital gold" safe haven; it is the most elastic link in global interest rate trading.
The real judgment day is the FOMC on October 27-28. Whether the 80,000 level holds is more important than any single bullish candle. Hold your hands, don’t be part of the 90%.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 台积电这份Q3财报确实亮眼，净利润直接创出历史新高，不少人第一反应是半导体要全面起飞。 聊聊我的看法： ✅好的一面：高端制程订单需求很稳，AI芯片持续贡献营收，毛利率维持在很强的水平，盈利能力实打实拉满。客户这边AI相关投片需求没掉，先进工艺依旧是台积电基本盘，这也是利润创新高最核心原因。 ⚠️但也要客观看待，不是全无隐忧： 成熟制程的需求复苏节奏偏慢，短期更多靠AI先进制程撑场面；另外海外建厂成本持续走高，地缘方面的不确定性，长期会压制资本开支与利润率。还有一点，AI客户资本开支如果后续收缩，会直接影响后续订单预期。 市场现在的分歧： 看多的觉得AI算力需求长期持续，台积电先进制程壁垒稳固，业绩还有继续上探空间； 谨慎派认为，当下高业绩已经很大程度price in在股价里，一旦AI客户下单节奏放缓，容易预期回落。 简单总结： 这份财报证明AI红利还在兑现，但业绩高点不等于股价高点。后续重点持续跟踪先进制程接单情况、毛利率以及客户资本开支指引。 半导体板块波动巨大，不要盲目追高，管好仓位。 #TSM #台积电 #半导体 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Q3 Non-GAAP EPS market consensus expectation: $0.82~0.83, revenue expectation about $12.86 billion
- Historical pattern: In the last 4 quarters, Netflix has slightly beaten EPS expectations twice and missed twice; the beats mostly just slightly exceeded by about $0.01, rarely a big beat
- Positive support: Growth in ad subscription business and continuous price increases help raise revenue per user; content amortization growth slows down in the second half, supporting profit margins
- Downside risks: New content investments and negative exchange rate impacts will squeeze profit margins; if new subscriber growth falls short of expectations, it could drag down performance.I'm telling you, brothers! Are all the short position brothers numb?
BTC directly crashed to just above 80,000, ETH even harsher, dropping straight to 2310.
To be honest, I was sure it would fall, but I really didn't expect it to drop so decisively.
The logic is not complicated at all: last night core CPI was 0.3%, overall 3.7%, both exceeding expectations, the rate cut scenario directly changed to rate hikes. CME data shows the probability of at least two hikes before the end of January 2027 surged to 73.7%, the probability of a hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, and the probability of no change is only 1.2%.
Before the data, people were still shouting "bad news is over, full position bottom fishing," but overnight all of that became fuel. BTC at 84,000 was the bulls' last trap to lure more buyers.
You could tell from my post yesterday, I kept saying don't chase longs before the data, the rebound was just giving shorts some points. Once the trend is reversed by macro factors, the stampede is faster than anyone else.
Brothers who caught this wave, report your wins in the comments, let me see how many got numb.
Those who didn't catch it, don't worry, there will be rebounds during the rate hike cycle, the opportunity is not just this once.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH $SOL Everything is falling, but we have to distinguish the severity
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
$BTC fell about 3% in the last 24 hours, dropped about 2% over the week, but still retains about 7% gains in the past month.
For this performance, I temporarily rate it as "relatively resistant to decline," but it's not yet time to turn bullish.
Next, watch the reaction around $80,000. Round numbers easily attract attention but don't automatically provide support.
If it breaks below and fails to recover quickly, short-term expectations should be lowered; if it holds and the rebound continues bit by bit, then it shows signs of recovery. Don't rush to increase your position just because it fell less.
$ETH faces more obvious pressure today, dropping about 5.6% in 24 hours, and has slightly turned down over the past month.
At times like this, "not rising much before" is not a reason to buy; a small rise can still continue to weaken.
Even if a rebound occurs later, I will first see how far it can go.
If it just recovers a little and then falls back again, it remains weak; only continuous recovery justifies changing the outlook.
$SOL fell about 4.4% today, which doesn't seem particularly notable, but the weekly drop is close to 7%.
Looking only at the daily drop might seem okay, but extending the view over several days reveals the pressure.
Approaching $100, it's easy to think "round numbers always hold a bit."
I will wait for the price to prove itself. Holding and pushing higher is very different from pausing briefly and then continuing to fall, and the response afterward is completely different.These two short positions of mine, honestly, should be the kind of trades that brothers dream of.
Why have I held on until now without letting go? It's not luck, it's my grasp of this trend—I, Hei Mao, saw it clearly from day one.
I'll repeat my previous judgment: the current market is almost exactly the same as when the last rate hike cycle started. First a bull trap, then a slow decline, and finally acceleration. We've been down this road before; this time it's just a replay of the script.
Let's look at $ZEC first. It rolled down from 1697 to 1087, with the 4-hour EMA5, 10, and 20 all pressing down, MACD repeatedly forming death crosses below zero, and every rebound being pushed back down. This is not a technical correction; the trend is forcing your head down. The Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) saw a weekly net outflow of $93.56 million, with assets under management shrinking from a peak of over $900 million to $750 million. On-chain spot holders can't hold anymore and are redeeming; someone has to take over the market—who will? Certainly not me.
$ETH dropped from 2807 to 2363, also in a bearish alignment, with MACD barely surviving below the zero line. Validator exits once surged to 851,000 ETH, the highest in 2026, with many queued up waiting to unlock. The spot ETF has had six consecutive days of net outflows, and the CVD has been negative since August. This is a liquidity-drained market—more sellers than buyers, and rebounds are just opportunities to add to shorts.
Does this picture look familiar? It's almost the same as when the last rate hike cycle started.
Many think it should rebound after such a drop, but once a trend forms, it won't reverse just because of some shouts. In a rate hike cycle, liquidity tightens, and high-valuation assets get hit first. In September, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and minutes show most officials expect another hike before year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.24%. Where does money go? To Treasuries; who will take your altcoin market? The more retail investors bottom-fish, the happier the manipulators get.
I entered the $ZEC short at 1422 and the $ETH short at 2727, holding all the way with unrealized gains of 706% and 1336%. There were temptations to rebound along the way, but my hands never trembled. Because I knew which part of the profit I was making—it's from liquidity contraction and valuation reversion.
The next moves are very simple: as long as it rises, I add to my shorts. Every high-level rebound is actually a window to enter short positions. Tonight, the US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and PPI is next. The market has priced in an 88% chance of a rate hike in December. Macro pressures will only increase, not decrease.
Until the trend changes, remember—remove the buy button.
$BTC$ZEC $ETH
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, with upstream factory prices and downstream consumer inflation strengthening simultaneously, indicating that inflation stickiness is stronger than anticipated, and there is pressure for upstream costs to be passed downstream, leaving the Federal Reserve the option to raise rates again.
But it’s important to distinguish: meeting data targets ≠ guaranteed rate hikes. The Fed has always been "data-dependent," and a single month of better-than-expected data is not enough to directly confirm a rate hike. The current market pricing is that there is a possibility of rate hikes within the year, but it is not a certainty. On one hand, the inflation rebound provides a hawkish rationale; on the other hand, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have recently risen, financial conditions have tightened passively, partially substituting for active rate hikes, so officials are likely to continue observing and wait for more validating data.
For the market, this data directly suppresses previous rate cut expectations, pushing U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher. For high-beta assets like BTC, ETH, the baseline scenario is bearish, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding crypto assets, and short-term volatility is likely to amplify. Of course, there are special cases: if there is a rapid short-term sell-off with shorts fully released, a bearish bottoming repair could occur, but this is an emotional game, not a trend reversal.
Key follow-ups: recent public speeches by Federal Reserve officials, core service inflation, and the next rounds of employment and inflation data. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
This data shows a synchronized rebound in prices from upstream production to downstream consumption. Energy price increases are transmitting throughout the entire industry chain, breaking the expectation of a continuous decline in inflation and pushing up market rate hike pricing.
However, the probability of an immediate rate hike in October is low since a hike was just completed in September. The Federal Reserve prefers to observe another set of employment and inflation data. A 25bp rate hike in December has become the market's baseline expectation.
Risk points: If inflation continues to rise, a temporary rate hike in October is possible; conversely, if employment weakens rapidly and the economy cools significantly, the rate hike plan may be shelved.
In summary: Inflation data keeps the Fed's rate hike option open; the door to another hike this year is not closed but not guaranteed either. December is the key window.
⚠️ Macro analysis only, not investment advice. Evening Hotspot Analysis: CPI Exceeds Expectations, Rate Hike Expectations Double, Market Focuses on Risk Release
$BTC $ETH:
US September CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, surpassing market expectations, inflation pressure spreading from energy to more sectors. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October surged directly to 50%, doubling from before, with market risk aversion sentiment rapidly heating up.
Affected by this, BTC fell below the 81,000 mark in the evening, hitting a new low since late September, with $982 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, over 90% of which were long positions, indicating a concentrated short-term liquidation of bulls.
Analysis:
In the short term, the rate hike expectation disturbance caused by inflation exceeding expectations is the direct trigger for this drop; funds are concentrating on risk aversion, and sentiment release is quite intense, leading to significantly increased short-term volatility.
However, from the perspective of the 4-year cycle, this is just an inflation rebound in the middle of a rate cut cycle, not the start of a new major rate hike cycle. The current inflation rebound is mainly driven by energy and temporary factors, completely different in scale from the violent rate hike cycle of comprehensive inflation in 2022.
The general direction of monetary policy is still gradually declining from a high level; the underlying logic of the bull market remains intact. Short-term emotional shocks and price fluctuations are normal corrections and shakeouts during the bull market process.
For medium to long-term holdings, there is no need to adjust positions based on short-term news; the cycle structure is not broken. Be patient until sentiment is fully released; the low point is again an opportunity to increase holdings.
Just a personal view, trading is ultimately self-reliant
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 今天 8:30 ET 的重要宏观数据已经公布，这次已核对实际值，不再使用公布前的预期数据。 PPI：明显高于预期。 9 月 PPI 环比 +1.3%（预期 +0.5%），同比 +6.3%（预期 +5.3%）；核心 PPI 环比 +0.7%（预期 +0.3%）。 零售销售：整体强于预期，但内部有分化。 9 月零售销售环比 +0.8%（预期 +0.3%），剔除汽车后增长 +0.9%（预期 +0.5%）。不过零售销售控制组仅增长 +0.1%，低于预期 +0.3%。 初请失业金：就业市场仍有韧性。 初请 19.9 万（预期 20 万），续请 171 万（符合预期）。 数据公布后的市场环境：Nasdaq 100 期货约 -1.3%，S&P 500 期货约 -0.3%，10Y 美债收益率约 5.07%–5.09%，BTC 约 80,700 美元。 值得注意的是，今天美债收益率实际上在回落，而科技股仍然下跌。 说明市场不仅担心通胀，还在重新评估 AI 投资回报、融资风险和企业估值。 结论：维持偏空判断，但不追低。今天的空单需要反弹确认，不能仅凭宏观利空直接开仓。 ———————————— 一、今日 This cold splash of inflation has dampened expectations for rate cuts.
The biggest fear in trading is when your position is already betting on easing, but the data moves in the opposite direction.
In September, US PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, with core PPI up 0.7%. Producer prices are clearly heating up, and even after excluding food and energy, the readings remain high. Simply attributing this rise to oil price fluctuations doesn’t hold up.
But here’s the difference: a rise in PPI doesn’t mean the next CPI will increase by the same amount. Companies can absorb some costs themselves or choose to raise prices; the subsequent transmission depends on demand. What really troubles the market is that the Fed finds it harder to confidently signal easing, and the rate cut pace that funds had anticipated may need to be repriced.
In the crypto space, my judgment is that short-term caution is needed. For BTC and ETH to continue strengthening, besides their own buying pressure, external liquidity support is also necessary. Repeated inflation will add resistance to this upward logic.
Next, I will watch the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and whether BTC can hold the volatility range after the data release. If funds still step in despite negative news, that’s more informative than simply guessing price moves based on data. Conversely, if rebounds lack volume and key levels are broken, don’t rush to treat every dip as a cheap entry.
This set of data leans bearish, but bearish doesn’t mean blindly shorting. First see how funds respond, then decide how to adjust positions. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ @OKX星球 $BTC is about to break 80,000 in this wave. The PPI data has been released, and it has once again blown past expectations, and by a large margin. The previous value was 5.4%, the forecast was 5.3%, and the release was 6.3%. This is still the annual rate; the monthly rate has more than tripled, with the previous value at 0.4%, the expectation at 0.5%, and the release at 1.3%.
What's worse is that retail data unexpectedly came out better, indicating that the purchasing power and economic development of the American people still have resilience. Alright, the Federal Reserve can confidently raise interest rates, and we can all just relax.
Most of the key data before the meeting has also been released. The rise in oil prices has undoubtedly driven inflation up. However, the decline in labor force and retail data shows that although the US economy still has resilience, it is not very strong. While there are no signs of recession in the short term, the Federal Reserve should be considering this.
Yesterday, CME showed about a 55% probability of a rate hike; after today's PPI release, it might surge to 60%. And with the Hormuz Strait unresolved, October's inflation will definitely be higher than September's. So will there be another rate hike in December?
Now tech stocks and semiconductors are struggling a bit, so it's really "see you in 2028" #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Regarding the current status of $STRK, it does not look like a whale dumping. The top ten addresses collectively hold about 7.09 billion STRK, which is the highest level since April. Additionally, three tracked whale addresses bought in, totaling about $722,000. On the same day, tracked exchanges had a net deposit of about $446,000. The net inflow is particularly high. Today is known to have a token unlock, but instead of falling, it rose. Personally, I think it looks more like whales preparing for one last pump and dump. Everyone should be cautious with this coin. The whales are not leaving; they are preparing for the final big harvest!#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
Just saw the Korean stock market drop nearly 8%, with Samsung and Hynix leading the sell-off, triggering the exchange's circuit breaker again.
This wave is not just Korea's own issue. Overnight, the US tech sector was already adjusting, with the Nasdaq down 1.88% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declining for the sixth consecutive trading day. The Nikkei also fell over 4% today. The selling pressure across the global AI industry chain is simultaneously intensifying.
On the surface, it looks like CPI exceeding expectations has raised concerns about interest rate hikes, but the deeper issue lies in AI itself. ASML's earnings show equipment demand remains strong, and TSMC's profits also exceeded expectations, yet investors are not convinced. Everyone is starting to do the math: the financing costs for AI infrastructure are rising, competition in the storage industry is intensifying, and the question is whether these investments can yield sufficient returns.
Korea is a bellwether for memory chips; when it falls, global tech stocks come under pressure. For BTC, the short-term pressure is direct. The tech sell-off drags down risk appetite, pushing funds toward safe-haven assets, making it difficult for the crypto market to remain unaffected. BTC is currently fluctuating around 82000, with short-term support between 81500 and 82000; breaking below that points to 80000.
But from another perspective, the essence of this adjustment is the market reassessing the input-output ratio of AI. If funds withdraw from overvalued hardware, some might flow into BTC and similar non-sovereign hard assets. $KR200 $SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $STRK STRK's recent sharp correction is a value reversion following a narrative-driven surge. At the beginning of the month, stimulated by the "transition to L1 + quantum resistance" news, STRK soared from $0.05 to $0.126, but this positive news was only at the "consideration" stage with no timeline, and on-chain activity and fee revenue lagged far behind the price increase. Then, on October 15, about 127 million tokens were unlocked (accounting for 3.37% of the circulating supply), combined with macro pressures such as CPI data release and BTC ETF fund outflows, triggering a long liquidation and a nearly 28% single-day plunge. Conclusion: short-term bearish bias; if the key support at $0.083 is broken, the next target is $0.06. #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
After the CPI and PPI data were released, US Treasury yields have been falling continuously, and the market has already started trading on a recession, with funds flowing into the bond market. Ultimately, Trump still needs to support the bond market, which will be tough for tech stock holders.Plunge!! PPI rises far beyond expectations!! $BTC $ETH
Tonight, the US September PPI truly fulfills the "inflation rising" script
PPI month-on-month 1.3% (expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%)
Core PPI month-on-month 0.7% (expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%)
From -0.3% in June to 0% in July, 0.4% in August, and now 1.3% tonight, producer-side inflation has significantly risen for two consecutive months, hitting a new high in this cycle. The simultaneous surge in core PPI further indicates that this is not just a simple oil price anomaly, but a comprehensive spread of upstream production costs.
As a leading indicator of CPI, the renewed acceleration in producer prices clearly suppresses expectations for rate cuts. Once upstream price increases are successfully passed on to end consumers, the Federal Reserve's policy space will be extremely constrained. In the short term, macro liquidity expectations face repricing, and high valuation and high leverage assets are very likely to bear the brunt of this sentiment first. Control your actions, do not blindly catch the falling knife.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 net profit surged 68.7% to NT$763.1 billion, with revenue up 50.9% year-over-year. Advanced process nodes accounted for 79% of production, and 2nm began contributing to revenue, with AI demand continuing to provide support. However, despite the better-than-expected earnings report, TSM's stock price fell more than 4%, a typical case of "good news already priced in."
Market concerns focus on two points: first, HPC revenue showed zero growth quarter-over-quarter, and AI's marginal growth is slowing; second, the high cost of building factories in the U.S., where the cost per wafer is four times that of Taiwanese plants, diluting gross margin by about 2% to 4%, and this pressure is expected to persist long-term.
In the short term, AI infrastructure expansion and strong 2nm orders still provide certainty; in the long term, risks of overcapacity and geopolitical cost pressures will gradually erode profitability. A good earnings report does not equal a good stock price; the real test lies in expectations gaps and cost headwinds.$ZEC Can it hold 1000 tonight?
ZEC has fallen today as if being chased for debt, dropping 13%-15% in 24 hours, the steepest drop among the top 25 by market cap, bar none. Currently hovering around 1090, the key round number 1000 is right under the nose. Whether it can hold tonight has become the focus of the whole community.
Conclusion first: Most likely it can hold, but the pressure is significant. The 1170 level above has turned from support into resistance; bulls wanting to rebound must first chew through this tough bone.
Why such a sharp drop? Macro factors. CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, exceeding expectations, inflation worries arise, and risk assets collectively get hit. BTC fell below 81000, with 935 million liquidated across the market in 24 hours; bulls were washed out like taking in clothes in the rain. ZEC’s own contracts also liquidated nearly 19 million, leveraged longs cleared out, naturally amplifying the decline.
Whether it can hold 1000 depends on BTC:
If BTC stabilizes around 80000, ZEC is expected to find support between 1040-1083, with the first oversold rebound target at 1140-1180.
If BTC continues downward, or if US stock market sentiment worsens at open, and ZEC breaks below 1040, then 1000 will be directly exposed, with 900 lined up in analysts’ forecasts.
Strategy: Don’t rush to bottom-fish; first see if 1040 can hold. If it breaks, let go. If it stabilizes, try a light long position with stop loss below 1020, target first at 1140. For shorts, wait for a rebound to 1170 that fails to break through before considering; don’t chase shorts. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Explaining a question from a fan: Is the bull market still here? Spot market is stuck in losses 😭 Will the market rise tonight???
To put it briefly, the bull market is still on! But definitely not this year!
Also, a new round of rotation and accumulation will start when market sentiment is relatively low, and it won't be a full-scale surge. That's impossible because there isn't enough capital to drive a wealth effect like in the past two bull markets; it will only get worse compared to those years.
Secondly, according to the current trend, the strongest support for $BTC is around 80,000. This is also where many big players get liquidated. However, the daily trend continues to decline, institutions are selling, macro factors are bearish, and the upcoming midterm elections add uncertainty. From the liquidation map, if 80,000 is touched, the cumulative long position liquidations will approach $250 million.
Right now, the bulls are overloaded; in a bull market, there are many shakeouts. Without capital inflow, the price definitely won't rise. There's a high probability that support will break down further to around 79,000-78,000.
Third: Is there hope for the spot market?
It depends on which altcoin sector you are in. Is the fundamental strong? Is there a narrative? If it's a leading coin and you're not too deeply stuck, just be patient, keep a good mindset, and watch the big trend. But although spot won't go to zero, it can get infinitely close to zero, so don't be fooled by those so-called KOL teachers!
Operation suggestions for the evening of October 15 [purely personal sharing, not investment advice]:
Mainstream: ETH (short), US stocks: #SNDK, Skhynix (short)$BTC $ETH $SOL
[ID Perspective] Data collectively turns sour! US economic resilience exceeds expectations, bulls should not blindly fantasize about easing dreams!
The cruelest part of the market is that it always douses your hopes with a bucket of cold water. Many are still betting on the Fed cutting rates, but this round of heavy US data releases directly shatters the easing fantasy.
Most of this data set signals bearish for gold and silver. Initial jobless claims are lower than expected, the job market remains strong; September retail sales month-over-month significantly beat expectations, consumer spending remains hot. PPI inflation data also exceeded expectations, indicating upstream inflation stickiness persists. The New York Fed manufacturing index missed expectations, with only the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showing a slight positive; a single data point cannot withstand the impact of a basket of strong data.
The entire data set points to: the US economy has not weakened, inflation is falling slower than expected, the timing of Fed rate cuts will continue to be pushed back, the dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to find support, suppressing gold, silver, and crypto assets.
Key observations
✅ Key focus: Whether the dollar and US Treasury yields can continue to strengthen on this data wave; if they keep rising, pressure on risk assets will increase.
✅ Bullish breakout condition: Only if a continuous series of weakening employment and inflation data emerges later can rate cut expectations be revived.
✅ Trading reminder: Do not use a single positive data point to counter a whole set of strong fundamentals, do not heavily bet against the trend for a rebound.$XRP Ripple is doing RWA perpetuals for institutions, and in the end, they chose the platform on Hyperliquid
Even the favorite child of the connected chain has to do business where the liquidity is
The XRP community might see this as positive news, but I can't really see where the benefit is 表面在反弹，底下其实还在拔河。 81500守得住，是勇气还是运气？ 昨晚盯BTC那根下影线，心情挺微妙的。价格一度砸到81523，随后在81400附近被硬生生托起，现在回到81862，还站上了超级趋势线81616。看上去像买家赢了，但我不太敢跟着欢呼。 因为热闹的是K线，冷的是宏观。KDJ已经冲到86.6/81.9的过热区，上方均线又密又沉，短线随时可能晃一晃。更关键的是，Goolsbee半夜放鹰：美国服务业通胀还在5%上方，核心通胀黏得很，他甚至不排除再加息。这不是背景音，这是悬在多头顶上的那把剑。 所以我现在更愿意把这段行情理解成一场情绪测试，而不是趋势反转。买盘确实在81400展示了肌肉，但宏观利空还没被完全消化，FOMO的人看到长下影就想冲，犹豫的人盯着宏观不敢动，叙事疲劳也还在。市场真正交易的，是"能不能先撑住"，而不是"能不能马上飞"。 偏多的路径：只要81500不破，短线情绪会慢慢修复，BTC稳住后，ETH和SOL这类高beta才可能重新获得关注，风险偏好才会回来。 偏空的风险：一旦宏观继续施压，或者82000冲不过去，这波反弹就容易变成诱多，山寨跟跌会比谁都快。 这种位Volume-price relationship#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高, Core trump card: Gross margin guidance declines, cracks appear in expectations
① Behind the impressive data lies hidden concern: Q3 gross margin guidance at 65%-67%, significantly lower than Q2's 67.7%.
② The market begins to worry that increased capital expenditure will squeeze profit margins, with uncertainty sharply rising over AI capacity expansion.
3. Market transmission: Good news fully priced in, funds vote with their feet
① After the earnings report release, TSM and related tokens like xTSM fell more than 2.7% instead of rising, as funds chose to cash out at highs.
② This indicates that the market's frenzy over AI computing power is being harshly scrutinized by rational financial metrics, revealing expectation gaps.
Core summary:
The long-term AI logic remains unchanged, but short-term sentiment hits a freezing point! When earnings realization meets declining profit margins, profit-taking at highs becomes the main theme. Don't be dazzled by superficial prosperity; keep a close eye on subsequent capital expenditures 📉 $SNDK $SK HYNIX｜Latest strategy for the storage sector: Rebound under pressure, proceed with caution!
Brothers, today let's continue discussing the storage chip sector. At this stage, my short-term view on this sector remains unchanged: do not blindly chase the dip, focus on observing short signals after the rebound.
🔎 1. Why is the storage sector continuously under pressure?
Recently, the storage sector has been affected by multiple news factors, and market sentiment has clearly weakened. Some bulls who entered at previous highs are also facing significant holding pressure. With concentrated capital adjustments, the volatility of related stocks may further increase.
Currently, the key factors to watch are as follows:
- Changes in foreign capital flow: The flow of foreign capital in the Korean stock market deserves close tracking, especially semiconductor heavyweight stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. However, the claim that foreign capital outflows have reached $141.5 billion still requires verification of statistical criteria, time frame, and actual data.
- Intensified industry competition: China's storage chip industry continues to develop, and market assessments of industry competition, future pricing power, and corporate profit expectations are also changing.
- Impact of buyback news: Progress on Samsung's related buyback plans may affect short-term market sentiment, but specific impacts still need confirmation through official announcements.
- Changes in policy expectations: If South Korea does not introduce new support measures, it remains uncertain whether short-term market sentiment can improve.
📊 2. Tonight at the U.S. stock market open, focus on $SNDK!
From a short-term trading perspective,U.S. September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%; core PPI rose 0.7% month-over-month, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%. Both readings significantly exceeded market expectations and accelerated noticeably compared to August. Historically, the PPI month-over-month has been positive and rising for two consecutive months: 1.1% in May, turning negative to -0.3% in June, back to 0% in July, rising to 0.4% in August, and September's 1.3% is the highest in this series. The core PPI's 0.7% is also the highest growth rate in recent months, indicating that price pressures excluding food and energy are expanding, not just a single component pushing up the overall reading. The simultaneous acceleration of producer prices means that the cost increases faced by companies are spreading. Whether this can be passed on to consumer prices will be a key observation point for the market to judge the inflation path. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 US September PPI rose 1.3% , the PPI month-on-month has been positive and rising for two consecutive months: 1.1% in May, turning negative to -0.3% in June, back to 0% in July, rising to 0.4% in August, and September's 1.3% is the highest in this sequence. The core PPI's 0.7% is also the highest growth rate in recent months, indicating that price pressures excluding food and energy are also expanding, rather than a single component pushing up the overall reading. The simultaneous acceleration ofThe old meme coin really can't hold up this time, with a 50x short position showing considerable floating profit, but high leverage is always like licking a blade. In the background, a certain institution's $DOGE ETF was recently liquidated directly, spot funds have had zero inflow for several consecutive days accompanied by outflows in the tens of millions, macro conditions are tight, and while BTC consolidates sideways, altcoins are the first to fall.
The trading logic is based on "institutional retreat + high beta catch-up drop": short opened near 0.086, accelerating after breaking the psychological 0.08 level, marked at 0.0795. There is a big divergence between whale buying and selling, the rebound with shrinking volume is not a bottom. Technically, the daily moving averages are all suppressing price, the 4-hour rebound hits the midline and then falls, volume decreases on rises and increases on falls, the bearish structure is complete.
In terms of operation, close half to lock in profit and push stop loss to breakeven, watch the remaining position for support at previous lows, fully exit if price returns above the entry level. Meme coins without new narratives are purely emotional games, they fall hardest when macro is tight, only the money taken off the table counts, don't be greedy for the last penny. $ETH $BTC #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 US PPI September 2026: +1.3%
Forecast: +0.6% Previous month: +0.4%
Annual PPI: 6.3% Previous month: 5.6%
Core PPI monthly: +0.5% Forecast: +0.3%
Trading perspective: Don't rush to catch the bottom!
Combined with the previously poor CPI, this PPI significantly increases the risk that the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy. But to determine the next direction, the most important signals are the reactions after the announcement of bond yields, USD, and Nasdaq — not just the PPI figure alone.
#USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus $BTC $ETH BTC 80807, many people are asking? Will it break below 80,000?
I'm watching this number closely, my palms are a bit sweaty. Just about 800 away from the 80,000 whole number mark, it's a matter of a needle's point.
Let's first look at the current situation. September CPI exceeded expectations, core inflation month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 2.6%, both higher than expected. The probability of a rate hike surged from 20% to 49%. Although Polymarket shows the probability of no change has returned to 79%, market sentiment has already been dampened. In the past 24 hours, the entire network's liquidations approached 1 billion, with longs accounting for 91.6%, a batch of long positions has been taken out.
Now looking at the 80,000 defense line itself. This is not a randomly drawn line. The largest buy orders in Binance spot order book are stacked near 80,000, the average ETF holding cost is about 81,500. Although the price broke below during intraday on October 8 and 13, it closed back above.
The fragile points are also obvious. Glassnode bluntly states "the upper side is more fragile than the lower side," there are a large number of long liquidation orders accumulated below 80,000, and another cluster near 75,000.
$BTC key levels I mark:
Support: 80,000-80,500, whether it breaks intraday is the first signal; if it closes below 80,500 and ETFs continue to outflow, the "real market average price" at 78,000 is the next stop, then further down to 75,000-77,000.
Resistance: 81,500-82,000, only if it stands back above can it be considered recovering; above 83,000 is when we can talk about continuation of the rebound.$SNDK was like it was injected with adrenaline a few days ago—quantum-resistant, independent L1, detached from Ethereum, and the community got hyped as soon as the name came out. But if you look closely, the voting is just a preliminary step; the real mainnet won't arrive until next year, and everything in between is just flying expectations.
The trading logic is simple: the narrative pushes the price too high, and unlocking increases selling pressure. Early holders' cost basis is far below the current price, and tokens are released monthly. When the price rebounds with low volume and falls with high volume, it means profit-taking and token recipients are exiting. The daily chart has shifted from a surge to a pullback, and derivatives positions are crowded again—chasing longs at this point is the easiest way to get shaken out.
My short position doesn't depend on "whether it will rise tomorrow," but on "whether the market can hold after expectations are realized." Currently, I am closing half to lock in profits and moving the stop loss near the cost basis. For the remaining position, I will watch for support at previous lows and exit if it breaks key resistance—no romanticizing the narrative. $ZEC $STRK #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 The probability of a Fed rate hike has dropped below 30%, even after the release of high CPI data.
Today, the PPI data is about to be released, with an expectation of 5.3%.
Unless we see the PPI reach the 5.7%-5.8% level, I believe the rate hike will be paused this month.On-Chain Health Check for CORE: Three Data Sets, One Conclusion
There are always only two voices in the CORE posts on the Square. "Ten-thousand-fold potential" and "Imminent zeroing," arguing for almost two years.
Today, I take no side. I just do one thing: open the blockchain explorer and turn CORE's underwear inside out, showing you page by page.
No hype, no bashing, no motivational speeches. On-chain data doesn't lie; you judge after seeing it yourself.
First data set: 69 million ghost tokens, where are they now?
Let's clarify the core facts of the 8.31 vulnerability.
The v1.0.26 hard fork destroyed over 150 million excess issued CORE at the protocol level, pulling the total supply back to a hard cap of 2.1 billion. The chain didn't break, blocks are still produced, and staking rewards recovered within 48 hours.
But the hard fork can only upgrade forward; it cannot roll back already confirmed transactions. The 69 million CORE transferred out to external wallets before the fork execution have not been reclaimed, locked, or destroyed to this day.
The cost basis of these tokens is almost zero. What is their current status?
Some in the community have tracked them: some addresses remain silent long-term, some split into smaller addresses in batches. The core issue is not "whether they will dump," but "you don't know when they will dump."
As long as these tokens have no on-chain verifiable lock-up or destruction plan, the valuation ceiling of every rebound round is locked. This is not an emotional judgment but a structural problem.
Second data set: How much of the TVL is real money?
Core DAO is currently the largest Bitcoin sidechain in the BTCFi track by TVL, locking assets over $314 million, staking over 5,500 BTC, accounting for about 26% of all Bitcoin sidechain TVL. Over 76% of Bitcoin hash power participates in maintaining network security. Since mainnet launch, cumulative TVL exceeds $1 billion, with over 31 million unique addresses.
But the TVL metric needs to be broken down.
On-chain analysis shows over 86% of ecosystem TVL is concentrated in "lending + re-staking" modules. What is the essence of these two modules? Leverage stacking. The March 2026 50% CORE crash triggered the Colend liquidation cascade, exposing this structural risk for the first time.
What’s truly worth tracking is the institutional staking volume of lstBTC—long-term locked BTC is the real incremental narrative of BTCFi. Short-term arbitrage and wash trading funds will withdraw once the market changes, causing TVL to shrink instantly.
Currently, the whole network stakes about 7,600+ BTC and 300 million+ CORE, with about 35% of BTC stakers also locking CORE. This number shows the dual staking mechanism is genuinely operating, but staking rewards mainly come from CORE inflation issuance linearly released over 81 years, not external income.
More people are staking, but where does the staked money come from? This question remains unanswered.
Third data set: Is ecosystem fee income enough to cover inflation?
This is the most painful of the three data sets.
The innate structure of CORE tokenomics: staking yields go to BTC stakers; CORE itself has no natural cash flow. The network continuously issues tokens for node rewards and ecosystem incentives, essentially perpetual inflation.
2026 is defined by Core as the "revenue era," with the core logic being to use BTC staking income, SatPay card fees, and other ecosystem revenues to repurchase CORE on the secondary market, replacing inflation subsidies.
But the flagship product SatPay has announced a delay due to licensing and regulatory issues, with over 20,000 users waiting in line and no set launch date. Without real cash flow, the buyback plan is currently just a long-term vision.
How much real income is on-chain now? Colend lending protocol’s 30-day fees are about $400,000, protocol income about $12,700. Core cross-chain bridge 30-day fees about $255.
These numbers are nowhere near the monthly token issuance market value.
The conclusion is straightforward: ecosystem fee income is currently far from covering inflation, and CORE holders’ equity is continuously diluted.
Putting the three data sets together, what’s the answer?
Ghost tokens have no disposal plan + lstBTC institutional funds have not scaled + fee income cannot cover inflation.
None of the three conditions are improving.
This is not a verdict that "CORE will go to zero," nor a forecast that "CORE will take off." This is a project still running but without a commercial closed loop, stuck in the middle.
The chain is alive, code is updating, 76% of Bitcoin hash power protects it, and the hard fork emergency action was indeed effective. But between "being alive" and "running smoothly" lies 69 million tokens, a delayed flagship product, and a revenue curve that hasn’t started yet.
On the practical side, three points:
First, watch the on-chain transfer records of ghost tokens. If one day these addresses show large-scale transfers to exchange wallets, no matter what others say, you know what to do.
Second, watch the institutional staking volume of lstBTC, not total TVL. Total TVL can be leveraged up; institutional long-term staking volume is the real signal.
Third, watch official announcements of SatPay. Product launch doesn’t mean immediate scale income, but without the product, nothing else matters.
Stories can be told arbitrarily, but on-chain data doesn’t lie.
Among these three data sets, which one do you care about most?
$CORE The cold splash from the CPI caused the S&P to end its streak of 53 consecutive days without a drop exceeding 1% last night. Looking at the pre-market today, the KOSPI has already crashed 7.6%, with SK Hynix and Samsung falling 11% and 9.5% respectively. What is the money doing? In one sentence: running away from "storytelling" places and hiding in places with "cash flow." It's very clear in the pre-market. Storage chips continue to get hit, with SanDisk down over 4% and Micron down 3.7%. But interestingly, the triple short semiconductor ETF (SOXS) rose nearly 7% pre-market. The money is not selling semiconductors; it is directly betting on semiconductors to continue falling. On the other side, TLT (20-year US Treasury ETF) rose 1.46% pre-market, money is hiding in bonds. The core contradiction of this wave is not "whether to raise interest rates," but "who will repay AI's debt." CoreWeave's bond yield has already shot above 15%, with the market pricing it as "not surviving beyond five years." This thing is like the first domino; the market suddenly realizes: doing AI requires borrowing money, borrowing money has become more expensive, and those companies leveraging debt to build computing power may collapse first. Directionally, I tend to continue to see adjustments. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has already fallen for six consecutive days, down nearly 12%. But this time it is not a technical correction; it is money repricing the financing cost of AI infrastructure. After the index closed, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to 5.186%, indicating the market does not really believe in a rate hike in October but is trading in advance on the expectation of "high rates lasting longer." #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 PPI and retail data released, with expectations exceeding forecasts once again delivering a heavy blow to the market! Inflation concerns and rate hike expectations are increasing!
This PPI and retail data basically negate the two optimistic scenarios I mentioned earlier. PPI proves that energy inflation has transmitted from the supply chain to the corporate side, so subsequent PCE won't look good. Although retail data is weaker than the previous value, it far exceeds expectations, indicating that consumer inflation pressure has not eased.
If we look at last night's CPI, we could conclude that "mainly an energy shock, core inflation has not yet spiraled out of control."
However, combined with this PPI and retail data, it means the price pressure caused by energy inflation is growing, while demand remains resilient. Therefore, the risk of energy inflation spreading to broader inflation is clearly increasing, so September's PCE won't look good.
Currently, according to CME, the probability of rate hikes in October and December has not increased yet. We need to wait for the market to digest tonight's data and adjust pricing accordingly! #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 [Quick Commentary] PPI explodes at 6.3%, BTC tests 81,000: The drop is due to interest rates, not chip dumping
Three things to consider together:
1. US September PPI year-on-year at 6.3%, expected only 5.3%, upstream inflation far exceeds expectations; combined with yesterday's core CPI all hot in three categories, an October rate hike is basically confirmed, and the probability for December further rises.
2. Initial jobless claims at 199,000, below expectations—employment resilience gives the Fed confidence to "dare to continue raising". Hot inflation + stable employment = higher interest rates for longer, risk asset valuations continue to be suppressed.
3. A whale dormant for 5 years moved 4,582 BTC above $82,000, profiting 9.3 times. But the coins were split into 5 new addresses, not sent to exchanges—self-custody reorganization, not selling.
In short: Macro pressure is increasing, no selling pressure on-chain, this round of decline is driven by interest rate expectations, not chip dumping. Watch the 80,000 level and the 78,423 annual line trigger below; a break will be another story.