Orbit Post Sitemap
The louder the doubts, the more calmly we should look at the data 🧐
CORE has dropped over 90%, and various doubts are flooding in. But when you connect the seven questions, the core issue is actually just one: Does doubt equal zero value?
First, look at the data: About 76% of Bitcoin miners' hash power is still delegated to Core, BTC staking has fallen from a peak of 5,000 coins to about 2,335 coins, TVL exceeds $314 million, still the largest Bitcoin sidechain. Exchanges like OKX and Huobi are still running validator nodes, and 5,588 BTC staked has not been massively withdrawn. If miners and institutions really thought it was doomed, why not withdraw? Because delegated hash power does not consume extra cost but adds an additional CORE reward, this is a rational economic choice.
Next, look at the team's actions: hard fork to fix vulnerabilities, continuous construction of the BTCFi ecosystem, not lying flat and running away. Although the "income era" buyback mechanism is temporarily suspended due to SatPay delays, the direction is to let the protocol replace inflation subsidies with real income.
As for exchange delistings, CoinEx and others have indeed executed them, but it needs to be distinguished: this is a risk control measure, not solid evidence of wrongdoing by the project team.
What about $LAB? A typical negative example. ZachXBT accused insiders of controlling over 95% of the chips before the crash, the spot price was continuously manipulated above the contract price, short sellers faced an annualized -17000% funding rate, and PiggyBank was forced to liquidate losing $476,000. Shorting a highly controlled coin is not investing, it's giving away money. $CORE Unrealized loss of $15.5 million! Hyperliquid taught all the shorts a lesson with one address
Let's start with some excitement: the whales on $HYPE hold a total position of about $8.35 billion, with shorts accounting for 53.39% and longs 46.61%, a long-short ratio of 0.87, with shorts slightly in the lead. Now for a specific case: address 0x5b5d..60 has a 5x leveraged short position on a major coin, currently showing an unrealized loss of about $15.5 million — note that on October 11, this position was at an unrealized loss of $20.84 million.
What does this indicate? Even big players can be wrong, and when they are, it's by tens of millions. Some say that having too many shorts might cause trouble, but I think the opposite: the fact that shorts and longs from all over the world are willing to bet here, with $8.35 billion of real money on the table, precisely shows that this is the main battlefield. Depth is not just talk; it’s built by both sides betting against each other.
The range keeps expanding, and the more I watch, the better it looks. Hold on tight. Is storage really going to fail? $SNDK has dropped from a high of 1900 to 1400 now, it's really driving me crazy.
Now SanDisk has fallen to around 1400, Micron $MU, Seagate, and Western Digital have also weakened simultaneously, which indicates that it's not just SanDisk having problems, but the entire storage sector is under selling pressure.
According to information, there are three main reasons for this round of decline: first, ChangXin Storage's new technology progress has made the market worry about intensified future competition; second, AI investment is increasing, and funds are starting to reassess input versus returns; third, SanDisk had a large increase earlier, and once growth expectations loosen, valuation will fall significantly.
But I don't think this means storage is completely failing. The long-term demand for AI and data storage is still worth attention. What we really need to watch next is whether storage prices, industry supply and demand, and SanDisk's financial reports can continue to support high growth. Although I somewhat agree that there is a tech bubble, this era should develop technology to advance the times, so I am not pessimistic.
From a technical perspective, whether $1400 can hold and $1500 can be regained is a short-term key level to fight for. If it continues to break lower, we shouldn't rush to conclude the bottom; if volume recovers $1500, then observe whether the rebound can continue.
Don't blindly bottom-fish now, first see if the price can stabilize, #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $ARB will unlock 92.65 million tokens on October 16, and smart money is already moving out. So, is it still worth holding?
Here’s my take:
1. Don’t heavily hold before the unlock; if you haven’t bought yet, don’t enter lightly;
2. 0.18 is short-term support; if it breaks, look down to 0.165;
3. If the market can stabilize on the worst sentiment day of the unlock, that will be the true bottom.
Many people only focus on price changes and often overlook token distribution:
1. The team, future team, and advisors hold a total of 56.13M;
2. Investors hold 36.52M;
3. These two groups have nearly zero cost basis and over 100% unrealized gains, so they naturally want to sell.
This batch is not community ecosystem funds but external financing at cost price. Supply will increase directly on the unlock day, and smart money won’t wait until October 16 to reduce positions. Historically, ARB has started weakening 1-2 weeks before previous unlocks, and today’s trend matches that pattern.
But note: 1.56% share is not large, and $18 million scale around $0.19 is only moderate selling pressure. What really determines the market is whether new funds are willing to buy on that day. The diverse fates of small coins under interest rate hike expectations: some crash, some lie flat
On the eve of the CPI release, market sentiment is tense.
$STRK has become the worst performer among new coins. At 0.09265, it plunged 22.29% in a single day. As a representative of the ZK Rollup track, Starknet had no clear negative news today; it was purely drained of liquidity—Layer2 is the first to be hit under interest rate hike expectations, and new coins lacking trading volume support can be smashed down over 20% by a single large sell order. This is not a fundamental issue but a market structure problem.
$HYPE is testing the edge at 85. At 84.929, it fell 1.22%, and the defense line built by 97% revenue buybacks is precarious. Big brother Maji has cut losses and exited, and large holders are withdrawing. The CPI impact on it will be fiercer than on Bitcoin; the nature of this highly volatile altcoin amplifies both its rises and falls.
$BICO is lying below 0.02. At 0.01918, it dropped 1.08%. The account abstraction track has neither news nor funds; when the market rises, it lags behind; when the market falls, it follows. Without a narrative, there is no attention.
$RE is lying flat at 0.44. At 0.44310, it fell 0.33%. DeFi insurance combined with small RWA logic is not accepted by the market. After losing 0.5, narrow fluctuations have become the norm, like a stagnant pool.
Four coins, four dilemmas, yet all point to the same background: interest rate hike expectations suppress risk appetite, liquidity concentrates on the top, and small coins can only passively take the hits. The CPI data is about to be released; the real test is just beginning. $SNDK Short on SanDisk rebound, is this strategy wrong? I was bearish all last night, and today you should understand why Old K made this judgment!
Many might wonder why the semiconductor and memory sectors suddenly weakened collectively? Old K will explain the logic behind it.
First, competitive pressure on domestic memory is intensifying!
ChangXin Memory recently announced progress on a new generation DRAM architecture and plans to launch related server memory products by the end of the year. The market worries that future competition in the memory industry will intensify, potentially impacting some manufacturers' market share and profit expectations. This news has already triggered a market revaluation of the memory sector.
Second, profit-taking at high levels is starting to loosen!
The previous AI memory rally saw huge gains, but now with rising competition concerns, funds are beginning to cash out profits, putting pressure on the semiconductor and memory sectors simultaneously. Although SanDisk mainly produces NAND flash and does not directly manufacture DRAM, it is still affected by the overall weakening sentiment in the memory sector.
Brothers, rest assured and enjoy the gains this round #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 The liquidity trap is becoming apparent, don't rush to enter the market to take over positions
A liquidity trap refers to the situation where, after prices fall, funds still choose to wait and are unwilling to enter the market to absorb selling pressure. Even if the price looks attractive, it is difficult to form sustained buying support to drive the market up. The current market shows these characteristics, with the prices of key assets continuously under pressure. From October 5 to 9, US crypto-related funds had a total net outflow of about 1.286 billion USD, among which the two major mainstream coin funds saw outflows totaling 1.221 billion USD, indicating a lack of incremental funds.
This risk will be triggered when funds continue to withdraw and key price levels are successively broken. Each major asset has its corresponding support level; once support fails, more speculative assets will be hit harder and may accelerate downward. External economic data and related geopolitical events will also influence fund preferences.
The core of prevention is not to blindly enter the market during liquidity exhaustion phases. Where have you currently set your order entry and stop-loss points?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC $ETH $SOL Another round of liquidation frenzy, did you get liquidated?
Look at this liquidation heatmap, the current market sentiment is clear at a glance, with high-leverage long positions collectively "sacrificed" across the board.
A total of 525 million liquidated in 12 hours, mostly long positions; 813 million liquidated in 24 hours, 84.5% of which were long positions liquidated, with over 170,000 people liquidated—a typical long liquidation market.
BTC liquidations reached 141 million, with 67.2% long positions; ETH liquidations reached 125 million, with 74% long positions. ETH long leverage congestion is clearly higher than BTC. For second-tier coins like SOL, it's even more extreme, with 91.3% of liquidations being long positions. Altcoin long positions are the most crowded and suffer the harshest sell-offs.
The sentiment pattern is very clear: many funds previously gambled on a rebound, leveraged long, thinking the pullback was a buying opportunity. When the market turned, it triggered a chain of stop losses. Everyone originally expected a rebound but ended up having their positions wiped out, and bottom-fishing confidence quickly cooled.
A small number of red short liquidations indicate it’s not a one-sided, uncontested decline; there were brief rebounds that swept shorts, but that was just a minor episode—the main trend is still slaughtering longs.
After a large purge of leveraged longs, short-term selling pressure will release some. But don’t rush to call a bottom; market confidence is already weak, and funds generally dare not easily take over positions. The overall direction still depends on the macro data outlook.During this period, the 10-year US Treasury yield once surged past 5.3%, hitting a new high since 2002. The US dollar index strengthened accordingly, and oil prices surged above $100 a barrel. The entire crypto market was suffocated, and $DOGE also fell to around 0.08.
Seeing these macro numbers, it would be false to say I'm not afraid at all. On Friday night, lying in bed and scrolling through the news about the US Treasury yield, I stared at the ceiling for a long time. With borrowing costs rising across the board, corporate expansion is suppressed, and funds are flowing into dollar assets—under such an environment, who would want to put money into the high-risk crypto market?
But when I was analyzing the data, I noticed something. After the US spot crypto ETFs raised rates in September, $3.55 billion poured in within a week, marking the largest single-week inflow for the entire year of 2026.
Money is rushing in after the rate hike. I've been pondering this for a long time.
There’s another thing that reassured me quite a bit. Dogecoin’s open interest on Binance increased by 8.16% in the past 24 hours, reaching $233 million in positions. The price is falling, but new contracts keep opening. The long-to-short ratio among top traders on Binance is 3.15 to 1, with 75.9% of leading accounts betting on a rise, and the global account long-to-short ratio is also 2.42.
High interest rates and tight funds are facts. But those putting real money on the line haven’t changed their direction.
The price is still hovering just above 0.08, and the market is mostly red. $DOGE, I’m holding.#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 ETH: Price liquidity is quietly restructuring
Currently, the market divergence focuses on: which side does the liquidity at the current price level lean towards? ETH is quoted at 2412 USD, with a funding rate of -0.0046%, shorts pay longs, but the rate is slight, with no large-scale capital bets.
From the exchange liquidity perspective, the platform's total open interest is 1.601 billion USD, a 24-hour increase of 8.12%; open interest has continued to rise by 1.9% in the past 4 hours, accelerating short-term chip exchange rhythm. Key price levels accumulate liquidity in different directions, with a 2.5 million USD short liquidation order at 2528.15 USD, and a 1.9 million USD short stop-loss still hanging near 2554.80 USD. ETFs saw a net outflow of 542 million USD last week, with BlackRock contributing 477 million USD outflow, while on-chain whales completed cross-asset portfolio adjustments, selling BTC and increasing ETH holdings.
The 2412 USD area gathers 635 million USD in long stop-losses, a liquidity-dense zone. The 2528–2555 USD range is an options game liquidity band, where liquidity anomalies often precede price changes. If 2412 holds, long order liquidity will not be concentratedly released for now; if it breaks, concentrated stop-loss orders will be triggered.
$ETH $BTC $SOL When Samsung's profits surge, downstream manufacturers might face even tougher times.
A preliminary quarterly operating profit of 107.4 trillion KRW is indeed eye-catching. But looking at TrendForce's report from the end of September, I'm more concerned about how buyers will respond after the price hikes: some PC brands have started reducing the SSD capacity of mainstream models, and smartphone production is also under pressure from rising storage costs. The good business for memory manufacturers is turning into a cost that the complete device manufacturers have to absorb.
The report still expects server-related demand to continue supporting prices, so it's too early to say Samsung's profits have peaked. However, the enthusiasm of server customers to purchase is hard to translate directly to ordinary consumers. While enterprises add budgets for AI deployments, some are already cutting back on computer configurations. The ability to bear price increases varies greatly. After supply shifts to high-profit products, it becomes even harder for consumers to get cheap goods.
Next, looking at the detailed financial report, I want to distinguish how much of the profit growth comes from sales volume and how much from price and product mix. If price hikes continue but cause more downstream buyers to reduce configurations and purchases, future sales volumes will need to be reassessed. Long-term contracts can lock in some business but may also limit the extent of price increases for some products in the current period, so you can't directly estimate all profits from spot prices. It's exciting to see record numbers, but I still want to know at what price buyers will start to hesitate.
#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元 Altcoins are ridiculously strong compared to BTC.
In the past four years, whenever BTC experienced this level of dump and weakness, altcoins would basically be hit to new lows.
But now it seems the pattern has changed. As soon as the dump stops, some altcoins immediately rebound strongly. Once they return to the range, they quickly hit local new highs.SBF @SBF_FTX is probably regretting it to death now in prison.
Back then, Alameda invested about $1.15 billion in the Bitcoin mining company Genesis Digital Assets, which was valued at around $5.5 billion at the time.
After FTX went bankrupt, the recovery trust filed a lawsuit to try to get the money back but withdrew the lawsuit in June this year.
This year, SWI acquired the company and recently announced it has raised 800 million euros to expand AI infrastructure.
If FTX had managed to hold on for two more years,
I dare not imagine this AI wave,
how rich SBF would be now... 🫣Some people do DeFi, study APY for a long time, but haven't even checked what permissions they granted to the contract.
A recent incident of a fund pool being hacked on the Base chain has once again brought token permissions and contract risks to the forefront. Just because liquidity certificates look safe doesn't mean the underlying permissions have necessarily been revoked.
My judgment is: when evaluating a DeFi project in the future, besides looking at TVL, yield, and audit reports, you also need to ask—who else can move this money? Which permissions can upgrade, freeze, or transfer assets?
Open-source code does not mean no risk, and passing an audit does not mean permanent safety.
After each interaction, do you proactively check and revoke permissions that are no longer needed? CPI hasn't been released yet, but the market has already split.
At 8:30 PM on October 14, the US September CPI will be announced. However, for the same data, two groups of economists have completely opposite expectations: the mainstream expects the core CPI to rise by +0.2% month-over-month, while CIBC's chief economist bets on +0.3% and believes the Fed will raise rates this month. In the past 24 hours, BTC longs have been liquidated by $686 million, and the funding rate has turned negative.
1. What has changed? The CPI hasn't come out yet, but the market already has a serious divergence on whether "core inflation will exceed expectations"—0.2% or 0.3%. Although just one basis point apart, these correspond to two completely different paths: "pause rate hikes" or "tighten again."
2. Why is this worth watching? The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.70%, the highest since 2002. With a risk-free yield over 5 points lying there, the valuation anchor for risk assets is being redefined. Under the pattern where BTC and Nasdaq rise and fall together, CPI is the only directional referee after this round of leverage clearing.
3. Which observation is currently more supported? More inclined to wait and see before the data, with leverage clearing first. Long liquidations account for over 80%, and the funding rate turning negative indicates the market is waiting for this number in the most conservative stance.
Keep a close eye on the core CPI month-over-month: 0.2% gives the market a breather, while 0.3% could push the probability of a December rate hike from 80% even higher. Tomorrow night at 8:30, that one decimal place will decide whether BTC will recover or continue to get hit. $BTC The more active DEX trading is, does it necessarily mean liquidity providers earn more? I think this is a common pitfall.
Recent research on professional market makers on Solana mentioned that professional AMMs can reduce trading costs, but passive liquidity pools may still be exploited by arbitrageurs due to delayed pricing.
In simple terms, the more frequently users trade, it doesn't mean LPs' collected fees will definitely cover impermanent loss and arbitrage costs.
When I look at a pool, I don't just consider APY and trading volume; I also look at fee income, price volatility, capital concentration, and whether the strategy can truly outperform simply holding the token.
When you act as an LP, do you value APY the most, or the real returns after deducting losses?#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注
Changxin Memory President Cao Kanyu stated at an industry event in Shanghai that the company plans to launch DDR5 RDIMM server memory products using a 4F² storage cell architecture by the end of 2026, and claimed the company has made "key progress" in new DRAM memory cell structures. This news became the direct catalyst for the recent concentrated sell-off in memory chip stocks.
On Monday in the US stock market, SanDisk closed down 5.97%, and Micron fell 3.88%. These two benchmark stocks declined on six of the past seven trading days. Micron has dropped nearly 20% from its historical closing high in June, approaching a technical bear market. The downward trend continued in pre-market trading on Tuesday, with SK Hynix down over 5%, Western Digital, Seagate Technology, and SanDisk down over 3%, and Micron down over 2%. In the Korean stock market, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell nearly 9% and 7% intraday respectively, with the KOSPI index dropping over 6% at one point.
The core change in the 4F² architecture lies in the transistor arrangement. Currently, mainstream commercial DRAM uses a 6F² design, where F represents the minimum linewidth in semiconductor manufacturing. Shrinking from 6F² to 4F² means the area of a single storage cell is significantly reduced, allowing more storage cells per wafer and thus increasing chip capacity. Changxin's key technology is its independently developed "Vertical Surrounding Gate" (VSG) transistor, which improves leakage issues and reduces cell area through a vertical gate architecture. Meanwhile, the DDR5 RDIMM product also plans to combine hybrid bonding technology, directly connecting stacked semiconductor layers through ultra-fine copper contacts.
The shift from 6F² to 4F² essentially represents a fundamental technological transformation from horizontal to vertical transistor channels. Samsung previously planned to mass-produce DRAM using this design by 2028, and SK Hynix announced a 4F² technology roadmap for 2025, but large-scale commercialization has yet to be realized. If Changxin launches the product as scheduled by the end of the year, it will gain a first-mover advantage in next-generation DRAM architecture competition.
Changxin's catching-up speed is the core background for the shift in market sentiment. Counterpoint Research data shows Changxin's share of global DRAM revenue rose from 4% in Q2 2025 to 10% in Q2 2026, officially breaking into double digits and firmly ranking as the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer. During the same period, Samsung held 38%, SK Hynix 25%, and Micron 24%. Technically, Changxin's fifth-generation DRAM platform, mass-produced in September, relies on quadruple patterning technology to shrink the active area half-pitch of the memory array to 11.95 nanometers, increasing the number of bare dies per wafer by at least 50% compared to the previous generation. Changxin Technology's revenue in the first half of 2026 reached ¥150.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 8.7 times, with a gross margin on main business rising to 84.84%.
However, there remains a significant gap between technological progress and commercial implementation. Eugene Asset Management analyst He Xigen in Seoul pointed out that market uncertainty about whether the current upcycle can continue through 2028 and beyond is suppressing valuations of Korean chip stocks. Jung In Yun, CEO of Fibonacci Asset Management Global, also noted that Changxin still needs to convert technological advances into commercially competitive large-scale production. Changxin must overcome hurdles in yield, efficiency, and customer certification, and with limited access to EUV process equipment, it remains to be seen whether it can challenge Samsung and SK Hynix's positions in the server memory field in the short term.
Another background to this round of sell-off is the simultaneous weakening of support in the memory sector. Samsung Electronics ended its stock buyback program on October 6, and SK Hynix's buyback is also nearing completion, with a combined buyback support of 55 trillion Korean won about to fade. Foreign investors have net sold Korean tech stocks for five consecutive trading days, with daily sales exceeding approximately $1.3 billion, including about $782 million and $415 million sold off SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics respectively. Even Micron, which issued quarterly revenue guidance far exceeding market expectations less than two weeks ago, failed to stabilize its stock price.
The deeper logic behind this sell-off is that the market's pricing logic for memory chip stocks is shifting from "AI-driven demand momentum" to "potential changes in supply-side competitive landscape." Changxin's technological breakthrough provides a clear catalyst, but its true impact depends on the speed of yield ramp-up, customer certification progress, and actual shipment scale. Until then, the valuation system of the memory chip sector will face ongoing revaluation pressure, and the imminent end of buyback support from Samsung and SK Hynix means the market lacks an important short-term buffer.The US stock market is closed, but tokenized stocks might still be trading on-chain. This change is more worth paying attention to than just having another new coin.
Recent research on tokenized stocks points out that a significant portion of these assets' trading occurs outside the normal US stock market hours, and price changes may even affect the next market opening.
My judgment is: the greatest value of tokenized stocks is not just moving stocks onto the blockchain, but allowing asset trading times to start decoupling from traditional market rules.
But don't get me wrong, being tradable on-chain doesn't mean it's equivalent to directly holding the stock. The issuance structure, redemption mechanism, and liquidity—missing any one of these could cause problems.
Would you be willing to trade tokenized stocks when the US stock market is closed? I was stunned for several seconds when I came across a piece of data.
There is a platform on Solana called Collector Crypt, specializing in rating card custody and card packs. Its revenue in Q3 was $433.5 million, a record high, up 8% from Q2.
You might think, card packs? How big can that market be?
But the platform's cumulative revenue surpassed $1 billion as early as August. $1 billion, just from selling card packs.
What's even more interesting is that the best-selling items on the platform aren't the small packs costing tens of dollars, but the large packs priced over $2,500, which account for 39% of card pack sales.
Imagine this scene—someone spends thousands of dollars opening card packs on-chain, the cards they get are automatically custodied, automatically rated, and automatically tradable. The entire process runs on Solana, settling in seconds.
This is a completely different world from crypto speculation. People here aren't betting on price fluctuations; they're genuinely collecting things. Yet it is precisely this "non-speculative" demand that contributes real revenue to Solana.
When a chain has people seriously conducting trades rather than just gambling on ups and downs, the foundation of that chain becomes solid. $SOL #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw outflows this week, totaling 1.22 billion in one week. Are institutions quitting?
My answer: BTC is just taking a breather, ETH is truly falling behind.
From October 5 to 9, BTC had a net outflow of 681 million, ETH had a net outflow of 542 million, the harshest week since January this year. The most extreme single day was October 7, when BTC was withdrawn by 485 million in one day, the largest single-day redemption since the end of June.
But looking at the longer term, the nature is completely different:
Since listing, BTC has had a cumulative net inflow of 57.6 billion, with net assets of 100.6 billion. This small pullback in October is too exaggerated to call a retreat; it’s just profit-taking after a rally.
What about ETH? Cumulative net inflow is only 13.2 billion, net assets 14.5 billion, and in October alone it ran out 635 million, with nine consecutive trading days of outflows starting from September 29.
Here are the price levels:
$BTC around 82,500, lowest on October 8 was 80,427. The 50-day moving average is 79,989, the 200-day moving average is 75,840, 80,000 is the first hurdle.
$ETH has already fallen below the 50-day moving average of 2,501, next is the 200-day moving average at 2,329, with basically no one stepping in between. On October 9, XRPL disclosed a payment calculation vulnerability that could potentially generate spendable XRP out of thin air. The fix was released on September 25, and the official statement said there is no evidence that it was exploited on the public network; this should not be considered as an inflation event that has already occurred.
The exposed issue is very specific: the calculation responsible for payments was flawed, and the protection originally designed to prevent "creating new XRP" also had a similar error. Adding an extra layer of checks, if relying on the same erroneous assumptions, does not necessarily provide additional security.
My view is that when discussing token scarcity, beyond the supply cap, one must also consider the ability to enforce this rule. Years of operation provide historical records but cannot rule out the existence of latent vulnerabilities that have never been triggered.
The team has proposed incorporating regression testing of the fix into the release process. Whether future issues can be proven blocked through reproducible tests will build more trust than simply stating "fixed." $XRP current price is 1.37, down 2.8% in 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume of 160 million — volume hasn't picked up, but the price is still going down.
This is the most frustrating thing I see about XRP today. The drop isn't severe, but there's no support. At the mid-level, volume is mediocre, and both bulls and bears are waiting for the other side to make the first move. This kind of market is more exhausting than a crash; a crash is straightforward, but a slow decline with back-and-forth wear you down over a week.
The news side is actually quite lively. Evernorth, a company partly owned by Ripple holding about 473 million XRP, officially listed on Nasdaq today under the ticker XRPN, becoming the first company to include XRP as a treasury asset in a listed company. It surged to 19.38 at open but closed down 1.05%. The first to take the plunge, but the capital market didn't give it much respect.
Also, traders are saying ETH and XRP might drop another 10% before hitting bottom. I usually take such predictions with a grain of salt, but since it made the news, it shows many in the market believe this narrative, and sentiment is being shaped accordingly.
Add to that the crash in Asian chip stocks and Kospi dropping 6 points, the entire risk asset space is contracting.
How do I plan to approach this? I won't add at the 1.37 level. If I really want to act, I'd rather wait for it to fill the recent dip properly; if it can't hold, it doesn't count as a bottom. Those holding positions should hold tight and not get itchy-handed. $XRP $BICO Biconomy is a Web3 infrastructure project (multi-chain relayer protocol). The technology itself is not bad, but the tokenomics are disastrous—the project team and early investors took a large amount of tokens and have been dumping them continuously until now. The circulation rate is 98%, meaning almost all tokens are on the market with no lock-up mechanism to protect retail investors.
On July 30, it hit a historical low of $0.0113, which is only 35% away from the current price. If it breaks below the previous low, it will be an endless downtrend.Strategy continues buying coins, spending more on repurchasing preferred shares
Strategy's announcement on October 12 shows that from the 5th to the 11th, it spent $21.5 million buying BTC, while repurchasing STRC preferred shares cost $192.4 million during the same period. Focusing only on "buying coins again" misses another major expenditure by this company.
Almost all the funds for buying coins came from issuing common stock, with a small amount from existing cash. The company is increasing BTC holdings while repurchasing its own issued securities, so the use of funds is not solely for expanding coin holdings.
My judgment is that the significance of this announcement for BTC demand should be discounted: there is indeed buying pressure, but the company's financing ability or cash balance should not be assumed to be money that will enter the crypto market in the future. The expenditure on repurchasing preferred shares does not directly create BTC buying pressure either.
To confirm that such companies are bringing stronger new demand, future announcements need to show a sustained increase in actual coin purchase amounts. Repeatedly mentioning "increasing holdings" is not enough yet. $BTC In the last hour, long positions on BTC across the network liquidated $433,000, and short positions liquidated $15,204,000
Today at noon, BTC sharply dipped to 83,590.3, causing a bloodbath for shorts. This rebound is indeed strange. After breaking below 81,000, it made a 180-degree sharp turnaround and surged. Combined with the previous deep V shape near 80,000, the essence is still short covering and retail bottom-fishing after leverage liquidation, lacking real institutional ETF backing, so the follow-up momentum is questionable.
I currently hold a 20x leveraged BTCUSDT perpetual position, with a stop loss strictly at 85,000, not believing it can surge straight up. Tomorrow night’s CPI combined with Hawkish "faster rate hikes" from Powell means the macro powder keg is not yet defused. Although the spike in the chart is fierce, selling pressure above 83,500 is gradually showing, and the 80,000 support holds. Before CPI, watch more and trade less. Do not chase the deep V, wait for a pullback without breaking support before deciding. Chasing highs easily feeds orders to the market makers. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 61,000 BTC surged nearly 200 times, but the victims may only be able to break even: The real dispute in this asset recovery is over who has the right to be the “coin holder.”
🚨 The most striking aspect of the Qian Zhimin case is not how much Bitcoin has risen, but that the same sum of money is considered two different things under different rules:
For the victims, it is the hard-earned money stolen by scammers.
For the recovery process, it is an asset whose ownership, repayment, and distribution methods need to be determined.
The difference is not just a label, but who ultimately owns the hundreds of billions in appreciation.
📜0.002 USD RSR, are you catching a flying knife or picking up gold?
First, look at the surface: the listing benefit has been realized, a pullback is very normal.
Down 6%-12% in 24 hours, falling from the high of 0.00315 to 0.002, with a market cap of 126 million. But it’s still up 17% in 7 days, 37% in 30 days, daily chart remains above the mid-to-long-term moving averages, and the 4-hour chart is still holding above the 20 EMA (0.00194). The candlesticks tell you: the big structure is intact, just a short-term weakness, 1-hour RSI back to just above 40—sounds like a “healthy pullback,” right?
But let me ask you:
Have you ever seen a "healthy pullback" that surged 66% on the first day of listing and then gave up half the gains the next day?
First thing: Upbit listing, is it a positive or a sell window?
On October 12, Upbit opened the RSR/KRW trading pair. After the announcement, it surged 66% in 15 minutes, touched 0.00282 intraday, and hit a high of 0.00315 that day. Trading volume was dozens of times the usual.
Listing announcement → 66% surge in 15 minutes
Intraday high 0.00315
Next day retraced to 0.002
The listing effect on Korean exchanges has always been "the moment the news comes out is the peak."
Second thing: Burn Gauge vote passed, but is the burn volume enough to make a difference?
On September 25, the Burn Gauge vote passed High burn: zero treasury unlock this quarter, and an additional burn of 4x the protocol fee amount of treasury RSR.
The direction is right. The supply side is indeed friendlier.
But do the math again:
RSR market cap is 126 million USD. Historical burn volume in USD terms is negligible relative to this market cap. The burn narrative sounds big but has limited marginal impact on price.
Third thing: Funding rate -0.68%, shorts are crowded—but this is not a reason to chase longs
Binance 8-hour funding rate about -0.68%, shorts pay longs. Open interest (OI) is rising across the market, Binance about 11.5 million USD, up 17% in 24h.
Shorts are crowded, one strong volume green candle can squeeze them out
But price is falling while OI is rising, indicating new positions are fighting, not a clean trending one-sided move
What does this mean?
There will be very fast up and down spikes. You’re not trading a trend, you’re gambling on size in a casino.
Also, the cost of holding shorts overnight is very high. Shorts pay 0.68% × 3 = 2% funding fee daily.
You think you’re shorting, but you’re actually paying protection fees to the longs.
Fourth thing: Macro is not cooperating, CPI is the recent switch
BTC stuck between 81,000-84,500, sentiment dropped from greed to neutral-cautious. 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.3%, 30-year once hit 5.70%, Brent crude at 110 USD, Fed minutes hawkish.
October 14 US September CPI is the recent directional switch.
Hot CPI → BTC may retest 80,000 → low market cap coins like RSR just pumped get cut first
Cold CPI → risk appetite returns → conditions to fill the listing gap
RSR and BTC correlation is moderately positive, but the recent moves are event-driven, not sector beta.
If the market weakens on CPI, longs at this level get washed out first.
Long-short showdown, you decide
On one side:
Upbit listing, Korean volume still there
Burn Gauge High burn, zero unlock this quarter
4-hour still above 20 EMA, big structure intact
Funding rate extremely negative, shorts crowded
October 15 community call may bring new data
On the other side:
Listing pump already realized, retraced the next day
ATH down 98%, massive trapped positions
Burn volume impact on market cap negligible
Short-term moving averages all broken, 1-hour RSI just above 40
If CPI is hot, low market cap coins get cut first
Shorts crowded but price falling, new positions fighting, not a clean trend
Key level 0.002, right in the middle between "still a pullback" and "already broken."
Resistance above: 0.00220-0.00224 → 0.00240-0.00245 → 0.00267-0.00275 → 0.00300-0.00315
Support below: 0.00200 (round number) → 0.00193-0.00195 (today’s low + 4H 20 EMA) → 0.00183-0.00185 → 0.00162-0.00165 (pre-listing platform low)
In short: 0.002 is halfway down from the listing pump, not a buy point.
Trading strategy (small position, this is not a heavy trend asset)
At 0.002 now, don’t chase longs, don’t blindly short.
Short scenario (priority to watch):
If rebound is capped at 0.00220-0.00224 with weak volume, consider light short. Target 0.00194, break that look for 0.00183. Stop loss above 0.00232.
Note: funding rate -0.68%, overnight short cost very high. Only day trade, exit as soon as funding tightens. Shorts are crowded, one strong volume green candle can squeeze you out.
Long scenario (wait for confirmation):
Only two cases to go long:
Hold 0.00193 and volume recovers above 0.00224, target 0.00245, then 0.00270. Stop loss 0.00190.
Direct drop to 0.00162-0.00165 with a bottoming candle (long lower shadow + low volume), aiming to fill the listing gap deep retracement. This is counter-trend, halve position again, stop loss below 0.00155.
Invalidation:
Daily close below 0.00183, listing rally considered failed, no more bottom fishing. Only if it reclaims and holds above 0.00275, then targets can be raised to 0.003.
RSR now is like OM in 2024—
Listing benefit, Korean FOMO, extreme funding rate, everyone shouting "narrative takeoff."
What happened?
Listing day was the peak, then a steady decline, trapping those who chased highs on the mountaintop.
In crypto, the moment listing benefits are realized is often the start of retail selling.
$BTC $ETH $RSR #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Bro, starting tomorrow night, the real macro test is coming again.
At 8:30 PM on October 14, the September CPI will be released. At the same time on the 15th, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will all be released together. Institutions now expect the overall CPI to be pushed up to 3.7% due to oil prices, but the core CPI is expected to slow down to 0.2%. What does this mean? The overall number might look a bit scary, but the core inflation that really determines the Fed's actions is actually cooling down.
The most conflicting thing now is that there is a fight within the Fed. Cleveland Fed President Harker just said that inflation pressures are still broad and supports further rate hikes. But CME data shows the market expects a 79.5% chance of holding rates steady in October. Officials are tough-talking, but the market is betting on a pause.
For BTC, the logic is straightforward. If the overall CPI really spikes above 3.7% tomorrow night and scares the market, the expectation of a rate hike in October will heat up again, US Treasury yields will continue to push above 5.5%, and BTC will get hammered around 83,000. Conversely, if the core CPI obediently falls back to 0.2%, the expectation of a rate hike pause will be strengthened, and BTC and gold can finally catch a breather.
Bro, do you think this CPI will push BTC up or smash it down? Let's chat in the comments. $BTC $ETH #SanDiskMicronDecline, ChangXinTechProgressUnderFocus Interest rate expectations remain stable, does that mean the crypto market will be calm? Option volatility has fallen back to a five-year low.
Interest rate expectations and US stock risk appetite show a weakly correlated stable state, causing the crypto market to stagnate and trade sideways, continuously eroding bullish confidence, with many traders turning bearish. At the macro level, this is only a correlation observation and cannot be directly judged as the sole cause of price changes.
However, the derivatives liquidation map shows short defense positions exposed. The estimated liquidation scale of long positions below is about $1.3 billion, concentrated in the 82000 to 83000 range, with a forced liquidation dense area at 82240. The liquidation volume of short positions above is about $1 billion, but very close to the current price. 84700 is the key defensive level for shorts; once broken, the 85177-85333 range will trigger mass short position liquidations. In a low volatility environment, short covering buy orders will push prices upward, and the market is more inclined to harvest liquidity on the upside.
Liquidation distribution is only a probability estimate and does not mean all pending orders will necessarily be triggered. If 84700 holds, the market is expected to advance to 85300 and 85865; if the key support below is lost, a deep correction will follow. If there are significant shifts later in interest rates, the US dollar, and US stock risk appetite, this set of inference logic will need to be reassessed.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 英国法院裁决引爆50亿美元比特币归属悬念：受害者可能拿不到增值收益 $BTC 2026年10月12日，伦敦高等法院的一纸裁决，让一笔价值约50亿美元的比特币命运变得扑朔迷离。法官Mark Turner裁定，关于英国当局扣押的61000枚比特币的所有权主张，必须依据中国法律而非英国法律来审理。这个决定看似只是程序性的法律选择，实则可能彻底改变这笔巨额资产的最终归属。 事件要追溯到中国天津蓝天格锐非法集资案。主犯钱志敏在2014至2017年间，从超过12.8万名投资者手中骗取了约402亿元人民币。其中部分资金被转换为比特币，并转移至英国。英国警方在2018年查获了这些比特币，当时价值仅约数千万美元。随着比特币价格暴涨，这批资产如今价值已超过50亿美元。约1.6万名中国受害者一直在英国追索这批资产。 裁决的核心分歧在于适用哪国法律。英国法律体系下，受害者有可能主张对比特币的直接财产权，从而分享其全部增值收益。但在中国法律体系下，受害者更可能被认定为普通债权人，追偿范围可能仅限于本金及法定利息。这意味着，尽管比特币从几千万涨到了50亿，受害者可能只能拿回当初被骗的本金，而无法分享这一巨大的增$BX BlackRock, as a traditional financial giant, operates under a different logic than the crypto market. Whether it rises or not depends on the speed at which global capital moves from high-risk assets to safe-haven assets. Today, tech stocks crashed, and capital flowed into financial and industrial sectors, making BlackRock the beneficiary.
Moreover, BlackRock itself is the world's largest ETF issuer, and it collects management fees daily from crypto ETFs (BTC, ETH). The more volatile the market, the more frequent the ETF subscriptions and redemptions, and the more BlackRock profits.
The 115 level is not expensive, but it's not cheap either. Holding it as a "stabilizer" is fine, but don't expect it to jump 10 points in a day. Its role is to give you some psychological comfort when your other positions are being harvested.Harmak is still talking about rate hikes. Will tomorrow night's CPI really make the market change its tune?
On October 12, Fed's Harmak said inflationary pressures come not only from energy and supports taking restrictive policies as soon as possible. On October 14 at 20:30, the US September CPI will be released, and on the 15th at 20:30, there will be PPI data; both days could affect interest rate expectations.
Currently, about 80% of the market bets on a pause in rate hikes this month, but if CPI exceeds expectations, this judgment may also loosen. Institutions expect overall CPI to rise 3.7% year-on-year, with core CPI up 0.2% month-on-month.
$BTC inflation is somewhat hot, the dollar and US Treasury yields may rise, putting pressure on BTC; if core inflation cools down, BTC has a chance to rebound. (Don't rush to celebrate; even good data depends on whether funds are willing to flow in.)
$XAU rate hike expectations are heating up, gold may be pressured; with easing inflation and a weaker dollar, XAU is more likely to get support. (In the short term, gold still depends on the dollar's mood.)
$CL oil prices themselves affect inflation, but CL is also influenced by supply and demand. Hot CPI doesn't necessarily mean CL will rise; if supply improves, oil prices may still fall. (This line can't be judged by the Fed alone.)
If CPI is hot, BTC and XAU may both be pressured; if inflation cools, BTC and gold might catch a breather, but CL still depends on supply and demand. The key is not whether there will be an immediate rate hike tomorrow, but whether this data will make the market raise expectations for future rate hikes again.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $XAU Brothers, gold quietly rose today, with spot gold once breaking through $4200!
Why is everything green today while gold is rising? Because funds are seeking a safe haven before the CPI. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.25%, the dollar broke 102, so gold should have fallen—but it rose against the trend. What does this mean? It means funds don't care about interest rates; they care about "what if the CPI explodes and the stock market crashes."
The logic for gold now is no longer "inflation hedge," but "hedging against all uncertainties." Global central banks are buying, physical demand in Asia is rising, and ETF funds are flowing back.
4150 is strong support; only if it breaks will it return to 4100. Those holding long gold positions, set your trailing stop loss properly; as long as the trend isn't broken, hold on. Gold is currently the most certain bullish asset in the entire market!如果这波反弹只是给撤退打掩护，那现在最该盯的就不是涨幅，而是风险预算。 你看到的红色，是机会还是出口？ 刚翻完主流币的合约净流数据，心里有点发凉。短线确实有回暖：BTC 在 5 分钟和 15 分钟都是小幅净流入，15 分钟约 +2046 万美元。但把镜头拉远，画面完全不一样。BTC 三十天净流出约 62.21 亿美元，ETH 约 65.91 亿美元，SOL 约 22.56 亿美元。ZEC 更夸张，15 天流出接近 10 亿美元，市值掉到约 196 亿美元。这不是普通回撤，更像主力在持续减仓。 我现在的判断是，这更像派发后的余震，而不是干净的启动。短周期那点买盘，很可能来自空头回补或被动接货，而不是新资金主动进场。换句话说，价格弹一下不难，难的是弹完有没有人接力。在 1 小时和 4 小时净流重新转正之前，每次回升都值得先当成一日游来防。 偏多的路径也不是没有。如果接下来 1 小时、4 小时连续转正，同时 BTC 稳住关键支撑、ETH 相对走强，那这波就可能是洗盘末段，山寨会跟着修复，风险偏好慢慢回来。但这条路径需要时间确认，不是靠一根阳线说了算。 更该被看见的风险是：大家太习惯把反弹当反$MU is diving along with SanDisk. Micron's earnings report is actually perfect—revenue of 54.2 billion, gross margin of 87%, but the stock price just won't rise.
Why? Because analysts are no longer asking "Can it make money?" but rather "Has the profit peaked?" Goldman Sachs' trading head bluntly said: Storage remains the epicenter, and concerns about profit peaking are suppressing valuations.
950 is the previous low support level; if it holds, a double bottom will form; if it doesn't, look to 850. Micron only started a 35.1 billion buyback on December 9, which is too little, too late.
To those battling Micron fiercely, remember this: You are betting on the supply-demand gap peak at the end of 2027, but the market is already pricing in that peak early. Time is your friend, and also your enemy. $SNDK previously stated that the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. ChangXin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "China's chip rise," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."
SanDisk's fundamentals are fine—the NAND supply-demand gap won't peak until Q1 2028. But the stock price is reflecting the "worst-case scenario" in advance. 1450 is short-term support; if it breaks, look at 1200.
If you have a position, hold as long as 1450 doesn't break $BTC dominance is 59.8%, the entire market fell 3.67% in 24 hours, the big market is dropping, but money is still staying in Bitcoin without moving to altcoins. The top gainers are Synthetic Dollar +251.4%, JPY Stablecoin +85.8%, plus another Synthetic, all stable assets pegged to fiat currency. This sector's rise mostly reflects market cap expansion, with some people parking money there to earn interest. USDT market cap changed -0.04% in 24 hours, no new issuance, no new money entering the market. This is a stock transfer, moving from risk coins to synthetic dollars for shelter. Fear and greed index was 73 a week ago, now 57, sentiment is cooling down. This round is a risk-averse rotation, no diffusion into altcoin rallies, and in the next few days, small-cap coins will continue to weaken along with the big market. Conditions for a bullish reversal: USDT market cap daily change turns positive, and BTC dominance falls below 59.8%. The signal that rotation ends is Synthetic Dollar dropping out of the top gainers list, and the entire market turning positive in a single day.Massive capital withdrawal! $BTC and $ETH spot ETF funds outflow, institutions are on hold ahead of CPI
From the 5th to the 9th, BTC ETF net outflow reached $679 million, ending a three-week consecutive rise.
ETH fared worse, with an outflow of $542 million, marking the largest single-week outflow since January and a nine-day consecutive decline!
Combined, over $1.221 billion in funds have exited.
Why is the capital fleeing? The Fed is hawkish, oil prices remain high, and CPI looms overhead. Institutions aren’t foolish; they’re pulling out to observe. This doesn’t negate crypto assets; it’s purely a phase of risk aversion and portfolio adjustment.
Interestingly, BTC prices occasionally hold firm, diverging from the fund flow. But ETH reveals its true nature—funds leave, prices fall. Several days of bleeding indicate that institutional demand for ETH is indeed weakening in the short term.
If upcoming inflation data is mild and rate hike expectations cool down, funds will likely return, and BTC could rebound. If the data is hot, funds will definitely continue to withdraw.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Today's market is quite interesting.
BLUR dropped 26%, BOME dropped 23%, $ETH dropped 1.8%, altcoins were collectively slaughtered. But BTC is actually in the green, at 83,500, up 0.99%.
Funds are fleeing from altcoins to BTC. Today the low tested 80,961 again, similar to the last 80,351, resembling a double bottom. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 lines are sticking around 83,000, waiting for direction here.
News: Metaplanet issued $333 million zero-coupon convertible bonds, continuing to accumulate BTC. This kind of listed company is still adding, similar to Jiang Zhuoer’s move of pulling back 75% at 83,000.
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM is the CPI release. Today's movement looks like funds are hiding in BTC, afraid to touch altcoins. Before the data comes out, BTC is safer than altcoins.
Don't add positions tonight, we'll see the outcome tomorrow.Metaplanet borrowed 52 billion yen this time, not planning to buy a single Bitcoin 🧐
This Japanese listed Bitcoin treasury company announced today: issuing about 52 billion yen (approximately 330 million USD) zero-coupon convertible bonds, maturing in 2031.
How the money will be spent👇
1️⃣ About 23.6 billion yen: repaying Bitcoin-collateralized loans
2️⃣ Up to about 28.3 billion yen: repurchasing its own shares
3️⃣ Buying coins: 0
Why repay debt first?
As of September 30, it held 44,000 BTC, with Bitcoin-collateralized loans of about 650 million USD, accounting for about 17.7% of Bitcoin net assets; the company's own limit is 10%. The lower the coin price, the higher this ratio.
Share repurchase is also scheduled: a new repurchase limit of 60 billion yen was set, with plans for an off-market repurchase of up to 25.3 billion yen on October 14, about 7% of issued shares.
My view:
📌 The treasury company is shifting from "borrowing money to buy coins" to "repaying debt + repurchasing shares," reducing buyers in the market and lowering leverage
📌 Zero-coupon convertible bonds save interest, at the cost of equity dilution when converting shares in the future
Do you think the treasury company should reduce leverage first or continue to increase positions?
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please be cautious of risks.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #Metaplanet #TreasuryCompanyBTC and ETH ETFs are consecutively bleeding, are institutions retreating?
Currently, BTC and ETH spot ETFs are experiencing significant redemptions. From 10.5 to 10.9, US BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 679 million, ending several weeks of net inflows. ETH is even more severe, with a 542 million outflow during the same period, marking the largest single-week redemption since January, and funds have fled for 9 consecutive days. Together, the two have seen over 1.2 billion USD outflow.
The main reason for the capital exit is macro uncertainty. The Fed minutes are hawkish, oil prices remain high, and CPI has yet to be announced. Institutions are reducing positions to hedge, which is a phase of defense rather than a long-term bearish stance on crypto.
The market divergence is worth noting: when BTC rebounds, ETF funds are still flowing out, showing a divergence between price and capital; ETH funds are retreating with prices falling simultaneously, clearly signaling a short-term weakening of institutional buying.
The key focus remains on CPI:
If inflation is moderate and rate hike expectations ease, funds may return, and BTC could challenge 84500;
If inflation exceeds expectations, redemptions will continue, BTC support lies between 81500–82000, with a break below targeting 80000. If ETH falls below 2400, the next target is 2350.
Be patient, wait for the CPI release, observe market and capital reactions before taking action. $BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice "FIL: The Bearish Logic at the End of the Rebound"
FIL has risen from 0.98 to 1.27, but short-term momentum is already showing signs of fatigue, and divergence signals are becoming increasingly obvious. The halving on October 15 appears to be positive on the surface, but the halving is more of a long-term narrative; once it happens, it becomes fact, and it may not bring incremental buying in the short term. More contradictory is that the current price still struggles to cover miners' operating costs. If the price is pushed up just to save miners, who will buy at the high levels?
Data from Filfox shows that bullish retail investors are clustered, including large holders with millions of tokens. The more crowded the chips, the harder it is for the whales to keep pushing the price up. At this point, a sharp rally is not cost-effective; using halving sentiment to lure buyers and distribute tokens better fits the capital logic.
Therefore, the area around 1.27 can be seen as the rebound peak, with a bearish bias. If it breaks above 1.3, it may only be to trigger short-sellers' stop losses; 1.4 is not expected for now. The strategy can be to lightly short with strict risk control. This is a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw outflows this week, totaling 1.22 billion over the week. Are institutions quitting?
My answer: BTC is just catching its breath, ETH is truly falling behind.
But looking at the longer term, their nature is completely different:
Since listing, BTC has had a cumulative net inflow of 57.6 billion, with net assets of 100.6 billion.
What about ETH? Cumulative net inflow is only 13.2 billion, net assets 14.5 billion, with 635 million running out in October alone, continuing for nine consecutive trading days since September 29.
Key levels are here:
$BTC around 82,500, with a low of 80,427 on October 8. The 50-day moving average is 79,989, the 200-day moving average is 75,840, and 80,000 is the first hurdle.
$ETH has already fallen below the 50-day moving average of 2,501, directly looking at the 200-day moving average of 2,329 below, with basically no support in between.
$SOL at 109.9, 50-day moving average 107.44, 200-day moving average 98.24. Its ETF also wasn’t spared, with net outflows of 24.8 million in October, continuing for five days.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ The harshest part of Harker's speech this time is not that she called for a rate hike, but that she said there would be "small, more frequent adjustments." On the surface, this sounds hawkish, but in reality, it is paving the way for the Fed to shift to rate cuts in the future.
The biggest problem inside the Federal Reserve now is not whether inflation is high, but that the policy path is too unclear.
First, let's talk about $BTC Bitcoin. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $680 million, and in the first seven trading days of October, cumulative outflows approached $400 million. ETF funds are withdrawing, but prices haven't collapsed, indicating that there is buying support in the spot market holding the bottom. After Harker's speech, the market's pricing for a December rate hike dropped from 70% to 68%, which is a marginal easing.
Next, $ETH Ethereum. Ethereum spot ETFs had net outflows exceeding $540 million last week, bleeding for nine consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETHA being the main outflow driver. Both funding and on-chain data are moving out, and the price is struggling around 2,400.
Finally, $XAUT Gold. Central banks have increased holdings for 23 consecutive months, buying 740,000 ounces again in September, with the pace of accumulation increasing month by month. The world's largest gold ETF holdings are also continuously rising. Harker said inflation expectations are showing early warning signals, which is solid support for gold. Even though it is suppressed by high interest rates in the short term, allocation demand is consistently buying at the bottom, so the drop is not deep.
Bitcoin and Ethereum spot holdings are stable, so don't make short-term moves; keep watching gold. When data comes out, first see how the market digests it; don't chase the first candlestick. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 "It's not a whale, it's the tide going out" (｡•́︿•̀｡)
In this round of selling pressure, don't just focus on a single giant whale address. The ETF's three consecutive weeks of excitement have just ended, yet $BTC surged to 84,000, like the final burst of fireworks. $ETH is even more awkward: sliding from 2,700 to 2,420, then rebounding to 2,540 but getting stuck; its rise can't keep up with BTC, but its fall is never absent ( ˘•ω•˘ ).
$SOL and a batch of public chains are also gasping for breath. It's not that the narrative suddenly worsened, but that money found a more comfortable place: the US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.36%, the highest since 2002. With such attractive risk-free returns, why would incremental funds stay up late with volatile assets? (╯︵╰)
So the selling looks more like "many small streams": ETF profit-taking, leverage liquidations, old funds rebalancing, and high-buying positions retreating. It's not a single whale dumping, but a collective cooling of risk appetite. Popular narratives lose momentum, and altcoins feel the chill first.
BTC can still hold up on consensus, but ETH and public chains have exposed liquidity weaknesses. Next, watch two things: when yields will fall back, and whether ETFs will see net inflows again. Otherwise, the rebound might just be a window to escape, not a new bull market ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°). #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% Yesterday, I was still wondering whether $SNDK could fall to $1,200. Looking at the latest price action, that possibility is getting more attention. Some traders argue that after such a sharp decline, there can't be much room left to fall. But the reported long-short data tells another story: 81.41% long accounts, with a long-short ratio of 4.38. That suggests bullish positioning is heavily crowded. However, crowded longs alone don't guarantee another drop. 📉 Technical picture: - Price plunged $ETH fell harder than BTC today, and the answer isn't in the macro environment but within itself: the biggest buying pipeline over the past year is about to close.
BitMine added over twelve thousand more coins this week, pushing their holdings to 6.03 million, just one step away from 0.51% of the supply. But management themselves said they’ve basically finished buying. This statement is far more important than adding positions—a silent institutional buyer who accumulated nearly 5% of the supply will exit once their goal is reached, while the ETF side has been bleeding for almost two weeks without stopping. Between one entering and one exiting, what ETH lacks most isn’t a story, but people willing to buy at this price.
Tom Lee himself is warning about pullback risks. Founders can shout all they want, but positions don’t lie.
On the chart, 2400 to 2500 is the bottom formed by the forced liquidations in early October, and it’s the only thing bulls still hold onto; above that, 2600 is the resistance level that every rebound has hit, then 2800 further up. The price is stuck in the middle, with no convincing momentum either way.
Storage chains collapsed first in Asia, and the retreat of AI trading is spreading onto the chain. High beta assets like ETH are usually the last to be remembered and the first to be cut when funds withdraw.
Before that 50% figure lands, with one less hand to support the bottom, volatility will increase a bit more. Liquidation Map: The 82,000-83,500 Range Is Packed with "Face-to-Face Liquidations"
This is currently the most dangerous microstructure. Hyperliquid whale address 0x8eff holds $20.56 million BTC long positions with 40x leverage, average price 82,750, liquidation price 80,404, only about 4% away from the current price. This address was force-liquidated on August 19 for $61.11 million short positions, and now has reversed to 40x long, putting itself near the liquidation line.
At the same time, trader AguilaTrades opened $10.14 million BTC short positions with 40x leverage, liquidation price 83,432, only about 500 points away from the current price.
The 82,000 to 83,500 USD range is already packed with face-to-face liquidations—leveraged positions on both long and short sides are extremely fragile, and any directional volatility triggered by CPI data could set off a chain reaction of liquidations. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点 $BTC buyback news hits low volume at a low point
There are reports that Metaplanet plans to repurchase 96.93 million shares through over-the-counter trading, spending about 25.3 billion yen, but this still needs verification. My first reaction is not "good news has arrived," but that such OTC buybacks usually do not directly impact the order book, so the short-term price transmission is questionable.
The price here is actually more worth noting: the just-closed 5-minute candlestick is at 83,530.1 USDT, close to the low point of the past few hours at 83,375 USDT, and the recent 15-minute movement is only -0.12%, with trading volume lighter than the previous hours. At this position, I'm not in a hurry to find direction; before the news is confirmed, the low volume at a low point looks more like waiting for confirmation rather than having already given an answer.The data hasn't been released yet, but the explanatory framework is already set up.
From Wednesday to Friday, three sets of US data will be released consecutively. The market has been sideways these days, just waiting for them.
Where does this money come from: The market's pricing for an October rate hike is only 19%, and a 25 basis point hike in December is already fully priced in. The difference between these two numbers is just time.
How is this number calculated: Institutions expect the overall CPI to be pushed to 0.6% by oil prices, with core CPI only between 0.16% and 0.2%. Back-calculating, the oil price portion accounts for the majority.
$BTC is fluctuating between 81,000 and 82,500, tried once above 84,000 but couldn't hold, and around 80,000 is the lower support line.
Before the data release, neither side dares to move first; whoever takes a heavy position first is essentially betting on the data.
$BTC