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Yesterday, October 12, 2026, marked the end of the 4-year vesting cycle for early investors and the Aptos team.
Key takeaways:
• Scheduled unlocks have dropped from 11.31 million to 4.54 million APT per month.
- Allocations for the community and the Foundation will continue until 2032.
• Staking rewards have decreased from 5.19% to 2.6% annually. The total supply cap is set at 2.1 billion APT.
• The Foundation has committed to permanently locking and staking 210 million APT.
- The token buybaI stared at SanDisk's candlestick chart for a long time. The time in the lower left corner of the screen was 17:46, pre-market. The price was 1434, down 4%.
I admit, for a moment I thought about closing my long position.
Just for a moment.
Then I opened a document and listed all the negative news from today one by one: Changxin Storage's 4F² DRAM breakthrough, Samsung Hynix's $40 billion buyback exit, foreign capital net selling for five consecutive days, Samsung plummeting 6.7%, Hynix dropping over 8%, and Hammock hawkishly saying rates will still rise in the early morning... After listing them, I stared at this list for half a minute,
and suddenly realized a problem: all these are external negatives, none directly hitting SanDisk's own fundamentals.
Data center revenue growth of 437% remains unchanged, Citi's target price of 2100 remains unchanged, and the judgment that NAND supply will be tight until 2028 also remains unchanged. The market is killing sentiment, not logic.
I returned to the market. The 4-hour chart dropped from 1806 straight down to 1408, a 22% decline, with all moving averages in a bearish alignment, and RSI entering oversold territory. This kind of accelerated bottom-chasing move often means the last drop is just ahead. My own long position is still there, with a very small position size, margin only 0.38U, so the forced liquidation price is unreachable. I use the lightest position to try and err; if wrong, I lose only a little money; if right, it's emotional repair.
I don't know if it will still fall tomorrow. But I know one thing—after listing all the negatives, you realize there is actually nothing truly fatal.
I'm just recording today's thoughts. Not advising anyone to follow, nor shouting any slogans. Just feel that this position is worth a look.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% The storage sector has taken quite a harsh hit this time, and even I am asking myself if I got in too early?
SanDisk has been pulling back along with the storage sector these past couple of days. The trigger was the breakthrough in ChangXin Technology's 4F² architecture, combined with the post-holiday correction in the Korean market and the early end of the largest buyback in history by Samsung and SK Hynix. In the short term, these are indeed bearish factors, and the market is worried that changes on the supply side will alter the supply-demand balance.
But looking at the longer term, Citigroup just reaffirmed a buy rating on SanDisk in early October with a target price of $2100. The core logic is that NAND supply tightness may continue until 2028. In Micron's latest earnings report, NAND revenue grew 42% quarter-over-quarter, and average selling prices rose about 30%. This is not data typical of an industry at its peak. AI data centers continue to drive demand for SSDs, and pricing power in enterprise storage is shifting from consumer to data center segments.
From a technical perspective, the 1-hour chart shows a long lower shadow around 1408, indicating that there is buying interest trying to support this level. However, a long lower shadow does not mean an immediate reversal; subsequent candlesticks need to confirm it. Short-term resistance lies between 1520 and 1550. Only if volume expands and the price breaks above this range will the rebound's sustainability be worth expecting.
I opened my long position at 1588 and am currently at a floating loss. It’s not easy to accept, but trading is a game of probabilities. The initial logic for buying was the long-term bullish cycle of storage, and that logic has not been disproven yet. As for the short term, I leave it to the market and to discipline—set your stop loss properly, and the rest is just waiting. $SNDK Yesterday, some were still shouting that ZEC would surge to 1400, but what about today?
It didn't even hold 1300; a big bearish candle smashed it straight back to 1208.
Those who chased longs at 1300 probably can't laugh now.
To be honest, I've taken quite a bit of criticism over the past three days. Since $ZEC was pulled up to 1300, the comment section hasn't stopped—some say I'm stubborn, some say I'm going against the trend, some say I'll liquidate sooner or later.
I didn't respond because I knew the market would speak for me.
It rose 200 points in three days, then dropped half of that in one day. With this kind of movement, tell me—is it strong or weak?
No need for many reasons, just two suffice.
First, look at the volume. This rebound from 1111 to 1300 saw trading volume shrink by nearly half compared to the decline. Pumping the price relies on real money, not just shouting. Rising on shrinking volume is just playing dirty.
Second, look at the technical structure. On the K-line, the 1300 level is exactly where the 30-day moving average is pressing down. A long upper shadow candle pushed back—classic false breakout.
The RSI is still hovering below 50; the rebound hasn't even touched the overbought zone, indicating the bulls have no strength.
My short position at 1218 is currently up 41%, not much, but I'm in no rush.
With this kind of movement, the rebound is just giving you a chance to short.
If it dares to surge to 1250 again, I'll add to my position.
The previous low at 1111 is just below; if it breaks, 1000 won't hold at all.
Don't ask why—just ask the market, it told me.
$BTC
$ETH
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 BTC重新站上8.3万美元，韩国股市下跌、纳指期货走弱，却没能阻止这波反弹。短线走势确实有点硬，但币价撑住了，不代表行业里的其他故事也撑得住。 曾经的以太坊NFT龙头Blur就是个例子。随着交易量较巅峰时期暴跌超过99%，平台最终走向关闭。牛市里，流量和补贴能把市场炒得热火朝天；等热度散去，才知道有多少需求是真实的。价格可以反弹，失去的用户和流动性却没那么容易回来。 而比项目衰退更让人警惕的，是连资产安全都可能出问题。Ledger针对CryptoBilis设备中发现的可疑植入芯片发出警告，涉及钱包密钥通过移动网络外传的风险。从市场流动性枯竭，到硬件供应链出现安全隐患，问题虽然不同，最终影响的都是用户对加密行业的信心。 BTC反弹值得关注，但别把一根阳线当成行业全面复苏。行情决定能赚多少，项目决定能不能活，安全决定最后还能剩多少。ETH at $2510, are you still holding on stubbornly?
ETF withdrawals have continued for 10 days totaling $780 million, the most steadfast bulls stopped buying after reaching 5%, and 2400 was supported twice—but the indecisive position at 2510 might be the last escape window the main players are giving you.
Let's look at the surface first: a dip to 2409 at midnight was forcefully bought back to 2510, with a 24-hour range of 2410-2560. The daily chart shows support near 2400 twice, RSI at 45 neutral, price below the short-term moving average but above the long-term moving average. Everyone is shouting: "Double bottom success, bull market returning fast!"
But I advise you not to get excited yet.
This is not a trend reversal to bullish; it's a recovery after liquidation.
In plain terms: after a wave of bull liquidation, the market makers pulled it back to see how many retail investors are willing to take the chips.
First thing: ETFs are running, institutions are voting with their feet.
The US stock spot ETH ETF has had net outflows for about 10 consecutive trading days. On October 12 alone, $85.4 million flowed out, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing $75.1 million. Since September 29, the cumulative outflow is about $780 million; last week alone saw $542 million outflow, the worst since January.
Are you still waiting for institutions to support the bottom?
Institutions are dumping their chips onto you.
Don't tell me "long-term bullish." Long-term bullish and short-term selling never contradict. BlackRock talks about tokenization while selling ETH—that's professionalism.
Second thing: the most stable buyer is about to stop.
BitMine (Tom Lee) holds about 6.029 million ETH, close to 4.9% of total supply, just shy of their 5% target. They added 12,500 ETH last week but clearly stated: stop at 5%.
In recent months, BitMine has been the most stable and mechanical spot buyer in the market. Now this "buy buy buy" machine is shutting down.
Guess what, when the most steadfast bulls stop buying, who will take over?
Retail investors?
You can't even support yourself.
Third thing: the unlocking queue hangs overhead, the deflation narrative is long broken.
The staking exit queue recently rose to this year's high, about 770,000 ETH. The potential selling pressure after unstaking is like a knife hanging over your head.
What's more painful: after the Dencun upgrade, mainnet fees dropped sharply, and burning can't keep up with issuance. ETH is now mildly inflationary, not a deflationary asset at all.
Are you still brainwashing yourself with "deflation"?
That's an old script from 2021.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
2400 supported twice, mid-term structure intact
RSI 45 neutral, not oversold yet
ETH/BTC at low levels, theoretically room for recovery
Long-term narratives (tokenization, L2, stablecoin settlement) still intact
On the other side:
ETF bleeding for 10 consecutive days, cumulative $780 million outflow
BitMine stops buying at 5%, the most stable buyer margin disappears
Staking exit queue at 770,000 ETH, selling pressure looming
Fed raised rates in September, dot plot still hints at one more hike
This week's CPI data is hot, ETH gets hit first
BTC at 83,000, ETH/BTC weak, altcoins have no independent rally
Key levels: 2400 is the lifeline, 2575 is the ticket, 2510 is the meat grinder.
Resistance above: 2550-2575 (short MA + recovery line, failure to break means a pullback) → 2600 → 2660-2740 (previous high concentration, volume breakout needed for recovery)
Support below: 2490-2500 (trendline) → 2430-2480 (key defense) → 2400-2410 (lifeline) → 2220-2280 → 2140-2240 (100/200-day MA)
Daily close below 2400 leads to abyss.
4-hour close above 2575 is needed to talk about reversal.
2510? Indecisive, perfect for a wick.
Trading strategy (range-biased, no chasing):
Perpetual longs:
Don't chase at 2510. Consider light positions on pullbacks to 2430-2460 if 1-hour chart doesn't make new lows. Stop loss below 2385. First target 2550-2575, reduce position there. Only if 4-hour closes above 2575, extend target to 2660-2740.
Perpetual shorts:
Don't short at 2510 top. Wait for 2550-2575 to fail with upper wick or volume shrinkage, then short. Stop loss above 2600. Targets first at 2460, then 2410. Don't hold shorts if daily doesn't close below 2400.
Spot:
Mid-term positions can be held but no adding at this price. To add, wait for one of two conditions:
Daily close back above 2575 and hold;
Drop to 2300-2400 with ETF outflows starting to narrow.
Before BitMine stops buying, don't expect mechanical support.
Position rule:
Single loss controlled within 1% of total capital. Lower leverage around CPI. If funding rate suddenly turns very positive, it means bulls are crowded in the rebound; prioritize reducing positions, not adding.
ETH now is like August 2025—
Everyone thinks "it dropped so much, it should rebound," but once ETFs stop and vaults stop supporting, price slowly falls from 2700 to 2400.
Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal, don't mistake recovery for a bull return.
ETFs are running, vaults are stopping, what are you still waiting for?
2400 is the lifeline, 2575 is the ticket.
2510 is in between, suitable for waiting, not heavy positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $OKB ICE filing landed, but OKB dropped 11% in 7 days. Where is the problem?
1. OKB's role on X Layer is just Gas; tokenized US stock trading does not consume OKB.
2. The joint venture company does not hold OKB; settlement layer profits go to ICE and OKX's parent company.
3. The trapped positions are in the dense trading zone of $130-$135; whenever it rises, people sell.
In my OKB valuation, the traffic part is already sufficient, but the token value part is still lacking. Short-term follows the market trend; long-term depends on whether the ICE joint venture can find new scenarios for OKB.
However, the story has been quite lively recently. The OKX ICE filing by the 10 groups is real; the joint venture between OKX and ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, submitted a 24/7 trading notice for 63 tokenized US stocks to the SEC, running on the X Layer's Uniswap v4 permissioned pool, with counterparties USDC/USDG/USDT.
Andrew Cuomo is the co-chairman of this joint venture. If this path succeeds, OKX will upgrade from a crypto exchange to a global stock settlement infrastructure. In the long run, I think OKB is a good asset. Sisters, the guillotine for ZEC has completely fallen last night.
My biggest regret now is not decisively adding to my position and rolling it over when it was at 1300. Looking at this candlestick now, I’m filled with regret.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish and go long; first, take a look at the nine-figure USD amount Grayscale withdrew overnight.
$ZEC dropped from 1315 to 1122 in 24 hours, now barely holding around 1213.
The moving averages are in a bearish alignment pushing down, and the MACD green bars can’t recover at all.
This isn’t a pullback; it’s clearly the dog whales preparing a guillotine meal for the bulls.
Looking at Grayscale’s ZCSH ETF, there was a weekly net outflow of $93.56 million, with assets under management falling from nearly $1 billion peak to $751 million.
On October 8th, another $18.66 million flowed out.
Institutions are running, but retail investors are greedily taking the chips.
Going deeper, the most fatal factor now is human nature.
There are too many users going long at this level; everyone thinks it must rebound after such a drop, right?
But the market never rises just because you think it’s dropped enough.
The more it’s like this, the more the dog whales want to kill it further, burying all the bottom-fishing chips.
This human nature game is more real than any candlestick.
My short position at 1656 is now steadily earning 1336% profit.
In terms of operation, you can slightly add shorts when it rebounds to around 1230-1250, with a target firmly holding at 1000 or even 800.
Don’t ask me when to enter anymore; my position is already set here.
$BTC $ETH
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% Recommendation on the $NEAR Grayscale fund: a drop of 13.6%, bulls have not yet surrendered, and high-beta public chains are also being bloodied.
Following the risk-off trend of the major market, the public chain sector has become a hard-hit area. $NEAR experienced a single-day pullback of 13.6%, ranking among the top decliners alongside BOME (-30%), BLUR (-29%), and STRK (-28%).
1. Reason for the decline: NEAR's previous rally was entirely driven by leveraged funds, relying on three main narratives: ETF expectations, token issuance volume, and the Intents ecosystem. When the price surged to the 5.9-6.0 range, the market was already severely overbought.
When BTC fell below 82,000, triggering a market-wide deleveraging, approximately $19.8 million long positions in NEAR were forcibly liquidated, causing a stampede.
2. Market signals: Current open interest is $349 million, with an annualized funding rate maintained at +11%, indicating that on-exchange bulls have not completely given up, and there remains potential downward selling pressure.
3. Going forward, NEAR will likely oscillate between 4.8 and 5.6 to digest floating supply; if the major market breaks down, the price may drop to 4.5; if the 4.5 support line fails, this round of upward structure will be invalidated, with a downside target of 4.0. Intraday trading range is 4.85-5.35, with an intraday stop loss reference at 4.75. 今早 BTC 还在 80,961 挣扎，下午直接拉到 84,000 以上，日内涨了 1.55%，反弹超过 3,000 点。明天（10.14）晚上美国 9 月 CPI 数据就要公布了，今天这个时间点拉升，耐人寻味。 市场在赌什么？赌核心 CPI 环比 0.2% 符合预期。巴克莱和摩根士丹利都预测核心环比 0.24%，比 8 月的 0.29% 放缓。如果核心真的降到 0.2%，市场会解读为 "通胀见顶，10 月不加息"，风险资产会涨。目前 10 月加息概率已经跌破 20%，市场基本定价了 "不加息"。 但我要提醒几个被忽略的变量。 第一，整体 CPI 可能很难看。 预期同比 3.6%-3.7%，比 8 月的 3.4% 大幅回升，主要是油价驱动。如果整体 CPI 冲到 3.8% 以上，哪怕核心符合预期，市场也会恐慌 —— 因为美联储官员最近反复强调 "通胀还没到目标"，哈玛克今早还说 "倾向小幅高频加息"。 第二，12 月加息概率已经 70% 了。 就算 10 月不加息，市场也在定价 12 月加。这意味着 "通胀见顶" 的利好已经被提前消化了一部分，明天数据出来可能是 "利好出尽"。 第三，中国长鑫储存技术进展导致存储板块集体下跌，这可能是今天最大的热点 其实早在Q2财报季的时候就可以发现，中国在人工智能方面的突破与发展是必然的，并且中国产能效率高，对海外市场释放产能快，所以现有人工智能所有产业链被冲击是必然的 不过，这种冲击短期是对高性价比市场以及中低端市场冲击最为明显，而中国在人工智能的产业突破我认为是起到了“鲶鱼”效应，对全球AI产业链短期是有威胁力，但是中长期却可以促进AI产业走向高效+低价的路径，这其实是好事，“卷”往往在长期来看带来的反而是促进作用 #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 不过，虽然短期存储板块被冲击，但是这并不代表基本面被破坏，国际上高端存储以及半导体芯片，目前头部大厂依旧拥有技术优势，起码短期几个季度不用担心被中国产能替代 而今年，韩国半导体以及头部存储企业的跌幅明显，就是我昨天前文所说的宏观压制效果，利好被缩小作用，利空反而被放大，归根结底就是高长债利率+加息预期下，市场流动性信心不足导致 接下里要等周三CPI靴子落地+美国银行股、阿斯麦、台积电财报提振市场，对冲掉目前的利空情绪与信心不足 趋势上，基本面没被破坏，产业叙事依旧存在，宏观压The weakness across memory stocks may be driven by a growing concern: China’s progress in DRAM technology could reshape the global semiconductor supply landscape. Reports surrounding ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and its development of domestic 4F² DRAM have raised expectations of potential mass production by year-end. If manufacturing scales up successfully, investors may begin pricing in stronger competition, future supply growth, and pressure on memory pricing and profit margins. Elon MIt would be such a pity if Bitcoin and Ethereum keep dropping like this.
I placed a short on Bitcoin at 84350, and it just peaked at 84134.
I placed a short on Ethereum at 2560, and it peaked at 2537.77.
There should be this kind of close miss feeling.
But if it keeps falling, it confirms that this V-shaped reversal is a short covering plus buying support rally.
During the decline, selling volume increases, while during the rise, volume actually shrinks and meets resistance, making it easy to fall back for a second drop.#Storage sector fund divergence intensifies, foreign capital selling Korean manufacturers drives sector down
The market shows some funds exiting, while other funds are accumulating chips at low levels. Foreign holdings data shows Samsung's foreign shareholding ratio has dropped to a nearly 17-year low, with continuous selling of Samsung and Hynix by funds, spreading panic sentiment outward. The storage sector is under overall pressure, and SNDK is impacted along with the sector.
From institutional research reports, Citibank maintained a buy rating last week with a target price of $2100, judging that NAND supply tightness will continue until 2028; Morgan Stanley proposed that AI is triggering a storage super cycle. The company’s data center revenue grew 437% year-over-year, and the Sentinel series new products are positioned in security and automotive storage tracks. 25 analysts unanimously rate it as a buy, with an average target price of $2173, nearly 40% upside from the current price. The short-term selling by funds has not changed the original fundamental logic of the target.
Does the short-term stampede of funds mask the true flow of long-term chips? Like the tide temporarily covering the reef, the reef itself has not shifted.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注
Storage stocks have dropped sharply these past two days.
On October 12, Micron fell 3.88%, SanDisk dropped 5.97%, and Samsung and SK Hynix also came under pressure. Today at the Korean market open, Samsung and Hynix directly fell over 7%, with the entire storage sector adjusting.
Why the drop? Two reasons. One is that ChangXin Memory disclosed progress on its new generation 4F² DRAM architecture, planning to launch server memory products by year-end. The market reacted to the news of a new competitor entering, raising expectations for future capacity expansion. Although actual mass production capability is not yet verified, sentiment moved ahead of fundamentals. The other reason is that Samsung and Hynix's large-scale stock buybacks are nearing completion, foreign investors are reducing holdings, and after a big run-up, a short-term correction is normal.
What’s the impact?
First, on miner hardware costs: if storage chip prices truly fall due to competition expectations, it’s good for miners as payback periods could shorten. But ChangXin’s technology is still in the validation phase, so short-term impact is limited; don’t expect hardware prices to drop immediately.
Second, the storage stock decline drags down tech stock sentiment, indirectly affecting risk appetite in the crypto market. Bitcoin is already pressured by macro factors, and when tech stocks weaken, short-term sentiment worsens.
Here’s my view.
Don’t panic; this is a normal correction after a strong run. AI demand remains, the storage cycle isn’t over, and short-term profit-taking needs to be digested.
What’s your take?
$BTC $ETH 最近看盘，我越来越觉得，币圈最难的事情，不是看懂已经发生的行情，而是在行情真正启动之前，判断现在到底值不值得出手。 以前我也会盯着K线猜方向：这里是不是底部？突破了是不是要起飞？跌下去是不是该做空？ 后来我开始用历史K线做量化研究，才发现一个很重要的问题： 判断行情会不会变大，和判断行情往哪个方向走，是两件完全不同的事情。 我做过一轮历史数据实验，专门研究大幅波动事件发生之前，哪些特征具有区分能力。 在测试过的多个特征中，有一个现象尤其值得关注：成交量异常扩张。 在我设定的样本和事件定义下，15分钟级别的相关特征在样本外测试中取得了约0.73的AUC。 这里先说明，AUC不是73%的胜率，也不意味着未来73%的行情都能预测正确。它只能说明，在这套历史数据和标签条件下，这个特征对区分目标事件与普通窗口有一定的区分能力。 但真正让我重视的，是后面这个发现。 成交量异常扩张，可能告诉我们市场正在进入值得关注的大波动环境，却不能单凭它判断接下来一定上涨还是下跌。 放量不等于做多信号，缩量也不意味着马上下跌。 很多人看到成交量突然放大，就急着追涨或者抄底。但如果价格已经走出一大段，等你注意到放量Today's market, $BTC and $STRK are like heaven and earth. Bitcoin stubbornly rebounded to over $83,000, seemingly about to reclaim lost ground, but STRK is like a hopeless case, dropping 18% in 24 hours and still falling today. Its recovery ability is really disappointing.
A big player couldn't stand STRK's sluggishness anymore and decisively liquidated over 26 million STRK long positions this morning at an average price of 0.0848. Although not sold at the peak, he still pocketed a solid net profit of $184,000.
Thought he would take a break? Not at all! This guy immediately turned around and used over $11 million at an average price of 81,819 to enter a 40x leveraged BTC long position! This position has already gained $245,000 in unrealized profit, but he also set a full-position stop loss at 79,000, clearly preparing for both outcomes.
Honestly, this rotation logic is very clear: abandon the weak, embrace the strong. But 40x leverage combined with such a tight stop loss really has a bit of a gambling element to it.Unichain has been "sent away," what remains of the $UNI story?#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注
$SNDK has recently weakened rapidly from the 1600 level, dropping more than 9% over two days, with a low of 1444.
Many people are puzzled:
Changxin's breakthrough this time is in *DRAM technology, while SanDisk mainly focuses on **NAND**, so there is no direct competition. Why is it also being heavily hit?
The core logic is simple:
The market is speculating **not on current supply and demand, but on long-term expectations**.
The breakthrough in domestic storage technology directly breaks the belief in overseas technology barriers, causing capital to directly slash valuations across the entire storage sector, regardless of the track, collectively avoiding risk and fleeing.
Additionally, there are two implicit negative factors:
1. Nanya Technology's performance is explosive, with gross margins off the charts, but the market has priced in **2027–2028 capacity oversupply** in advance, and the high-profit cycle is about to peak.
2. The Korean manufacturers' trillion-level buyback is nearing completion, and the market's largest bottom-supporting funds are about to be cut off, causing sector sentiment to weaken completely.
Personal position management:
Short-term remains bearish, but after continuous overselling, a technical oversold rebound may occur at any time. **Absolutely do not catch a falling knife**.
My trading approach:
No bottom-fishing, no left-side speculation.
Wait for the rebound to face resistance before looking for a second short opportunity; if no position, continue to observe.
The focus going forward is only on two key points:
ASML and TSMC earnings sentiment, with **the real direction set by Samsung's earnings on October 29**.
If Samsung still expects long-term tight supply, this panic is just an emotional trap;
If supply and demand expectations weaken, this storage cycle is basically declared over. $CORE https://scan.coredao.org/address/0x307328448396c925bbc671944285547619e21838#internalTx The project team's contract just unlocked over fifty million, watch out for selling pressure. Additionally, it's worth noting that the circulating supply actually decreased after unlocking, which is suspicious. Judge for yourself.TRX is relatively resistant to decline today, with small intraday fluctuations, showing certain defensive characteristics when the overall market is weak. The underlying logic of TRON remains stablecoin transfers, on-chain payments, and continuously active network usage, and this real demand provides relatively stable support for TRX. However, short-term funds prefer high-volatility hotspots, and TRX usually does not surge the fastest in sentiment-driven markets. Next, pay attention to on-chain stablecoin liquidity, fee burning, and ecosystem activity. If the market stabilizes, TRX's steady recovery is more worth observing. $TRXGold is also a relatively good liquidity channel for capital "hedging," with room for growth in the medium to long term.
However, Bank of America predicts that gold $XAU could reach around 4800 by 2027.
In the short term, Bank of America believes gold won't hold above 4000 and may dip to around 3750.
In fact, we can see that gold's price has some support around 3950.
But rising Federal Reserve interest rates or increases in long-term U.S. Treasury yields could suppress gold's performance. Central banks like China and India have somewhat reduced their gold purchases, making gold relatively weak.
Physical gold demand is relatively weak, but gold ETFs still see capital inflows. In the short term, there is indeed a need to watch for the risk of gold price declines, but in the medium to long term, gold still holds certain appeal 🤔
@OKX星球 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
刚看了下资金数据，ETF这波流出有点狠。
10月5日到9日，美国比特币现货ETF净流出约6.79亿美元，结束了连续三周的净流入。以太坊更惨，同期净流出5.42亿美元，创1月以来最大单周流出，而且已经连续九个交易日净流出。两类产品单周合计流出约12.21亿美元。
钱为什么跑？主要是宏观不确定性。美联储9月纪要偏鹰，油价又在高位，CPI马上要出，机构选择先撤出来观望。这不是对加密资产本身的否定，是阶段性的避险调仓。
有意思的是，BTC价格一度反弹，跟ETF资金流向出现了背离。ETH就更明显，资金在走，价格也在跌。ETH的机构需求短期确实在减弱，连续九天的流出不是小信号。
接下来要看CPI。如果通胀数据温和，加息预期降温，资金可能重新回流，BTC有机会反弹测试84500。如果数据偏热，加息预期重新升温，资金还会继续撤，BTC下方81500到82000是短期支撑，破了看80000。ETH跌破2400的话，下一档看2350。
操作上别急着抄底。等CPI落地，看资金流向和价格反应再动手。$BTC $ETH A $481 million buyback quota, not a single share bought, directly canceled.
Metaplanet's move, frankly, is to take all the money prepared for supporting the price and use it to accumulate $BTC.
They also made two acquisitions casually. The reason is straightforward: holding significant undisclosed information, making buybacks inconvenient.
As someone who has held for a long time, I actually feel quite tired seeing this kind of announcement.
It's not bad news, but it's not a booster either.
It clearly states a priority: Bitcoin comes first, shareholder returns come later.
A new quota of 385 million is set, but setting it doesn't mean it will be used.
The previous one was lost just like that.
What should be watched most now is not how big the quota is, but whether the next holding announcement shows continued accumulation of coins.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#Strategy增持放缓，企业财库策略生变？ #代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？ $BTC "ETF is bleeding, but Meme is returning to Solana"
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $65.4 million, and Ethereum ETFs experienced a nearly $577 million outflow over the past 5 days, marking the largest scale since January. However, Solana's Meme coin spot DEX trading volume share quietly surged to 91%, the highest in nearly 14 weeks.
What happened? Mainstream asset funds are withdrawing, but Meme trading volume is concentrating on Solana. It's not that Meme overall is heating up, but the answer to "where Meme plays" has changed.
Why is this worth attention? ETF outflows reflect institutional behavior, while Meme share reflects retail behavior. The opposite directions indicate retail investors haven't exited, they're just changing battlegrounds. Solana has absorbed almost all Meme liquidity, while Meme ecosystems on other chains are rapidly marginalizing.
Which observation is more supported currently? More support for "structural concentration under stock game" rather than a full retreat. Money is flowing from large-cap assets to high-volatility targets, and Solana is currently the only receiving end.
What to watch next? Whether this 91% is a short-term pulse or a trend turning point depends on whether Solana Meme DEX volume can be maintained. If the share stays above 90% for more than a week, Meme on other chains may face liquidity drain. Do you think this round of concentration is risk aversion or the last spree of speculative funds? $ETH $SOL Why are semiconductor chips and memory stocks weakening one after another $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU
Yesterday shorting US stocks was really satisfying, but why shorting is not well understood by everyone. Today, Xuan will break it down and analyze. There are two main reasons:
First, domestic memory manufacturer Changxin Memory has made progress in the new generation DRAM cell structure and plans to launch related server memory products by the end of the year. The competition for market share is increasing, which will significantly impact the status and profit margins of various chips.
Second, buying in memory chips is starting to decline. Without new capital inflows and only buybacks remaining, it proves that institutions and major players are no longer buying. AI memory is beginning to decouple from the market trend. Therefore, placing short orders at this time has great cost-performance potential!!
Personal trading advice:
Short SanDisk on a rebound near 1485, target 1410
Short Hynix on a rebound between 1120-1130, target 1070Numb from the drop, is there really no hope for CORE? I'll lay out the most painful data and the strongest trump cards
Opened the square today, and all I hear is wailing.
CORE has dropped to around 0.019, down another 2.7% in 24 hours. The haters are on schedule—"zeroing out," "delisting," "running away." A brother messaged me privately: "I can't hold on anymore, is there really no hope?"
I’m not giving trading advice or sugarcoating. Today, I’ll put all the harsh realities and strongest trump cards of CORE on the table for you to see.
1. Why is it numb from the drop? Three reasons, none avoided
First, liquidity is continuously shrinking. KuCoin delisted CORE in July, CoinEx followed in September, and multiple exchanges have suspended deposits and withdrawals for risk control. The number of supporting platforms for CORE has sharply dropped from the initial 34 to only 13 still maintaining trading. The smaller the market, the easier it is for a single sell order to create a deep pit.
Second, 69 million ghost tokens hang overhead. On August 31, a validator reward loophole was verified; before the hard fork, 69 million excess CORE tokens were transferred to external wallets. The hard fork can only upgrade forward and cannot roll back confirmed transactions. These tokens cost almost nothing, and the official side has yet to provide any on-chain verifiable locking or destruction plan. Every rebound has a knife hanging over it.
Third, the flagship product SatPay has been delayed. This highly anticipated new Bitcoin bank was originally planned to launch within 2026 but has been postponed due to licensing and regulatory issues. Over 20,000 users are in the queue, and the launch date is undecided. The entire "revenue era" logic for CORE in 2026—buying back CORE with ecosystem income—heavily depends on SatPay generating real cash flow. Without the product launch, buybacks are just empty talk.
2. But next, some things the haters won’t tell you
Trump card one: CORE is still the largest Bitcoin sidechain by TVL in the BTCFi sector. According to Spark Money’s BTCFi research report, CORE has over $314 million locked on-chain, with more than 5,500 BTC staked, accounting for about 26% of all Bitcoin sidechain TVL. Why would a "zeroed out" project have so much real money locked inside?
Trump card two: The hard fork is indeed working. After the v1.0.26 hard fork activation on September 3, over 150 million excess CORE tokens were destroyed, permanently removed from total supply. Staking rewards returned to normal within 48 hours. The chain didn’t break; blocks are still being produced. This is the baseline.
Trump card three: 76% of Bitcoin’s hash power protects this chain. CORE’s underlying security directly inherits the hash power barrier of the Bitcoin mainnet. Why would a project repeatedly declared dead still have so much hash power working for it?
3. So, is there hope or not?
I won’t lie to you. CORE won’t take off tomorrow, nor will it zero out tomorrow. It’s stuck in a very uncomfortable middle ground—the underlying chain is alive, but the upper-level business loop hasn’t been completed.
Three key data points truly decide CORE’s fate; just keep an eye on these:
When SatPay truly launches and generates sustainable income. This is the only fuel for the buyback narrative.
Whether there is a disposal plan for the 69 million ghost tokens. If the official side proposes a community vote to destroy these tokens someday, that would be the first step toward trust repair.
When ecosystem fee income can cover inflation. Currently, real on-chain income is far from supporting buyback promises, which is the fundamental reason institutional funds are still watching.
Before these three questions have answers, treat all price ups and downs as emotional fluctuations, not trend reversals to chase.
Finally, a heartfelt word
From $6.47 down to $0.019, a 99.7% drop. Who can hold on until now without a steel head? If you didn’t run after a 99% drop, are you really dumb to sell now just because it dropped to 0.019?
I’m not telling you to hold to death. I want to say—if your original logic for buying CORE was "BTCFi is the future," has that logic changed today? It’s still the top Bitcoin sidechain by TVL, 76% of hash power still protects it, the chain is still running, and the code is still updating.
The logic hasn’t changed; what changed is the price. And price has never been the only standard to judge whether a project is dead or alive.
When you can’t hold on, look less at the K-line and more at the chain. The chain isn’t dead, so why panic?
Are you still here? During this drop, did you add to your position or sell?
$CORE Someone made a suggestion on GitHub to cut Dogecoin's inflation by 90%
Since Dogecoin launched in 2013, the block reward has always been 10,000 coins per block and has never changed. Someone calculated that about 5.26 billion DOGE are added annually, with an inflation rate of around 3.2%. Many people complain about Dogecoin's "infinite issuance," referring to this issue.
But recently, someone proposed on GitHub to cut the block reward directly from 10,000 to 1,000, a 90% reduction. If this really happens, the annual new coins would drop from 5.26 billion to 526 million, and the annual inflation rate would be squeezed from 3.2% down to 0.3%. What does 3.2% vs. 0.3% mean? Many countries have annual currency inflation rates higher than this.
Of course, this is still far from implementation. A hard fork requires miners and exchanges to follow, and the proposal is currently stuck on the GitHub forum with no statement from the core team yet. Also, Dogecoin is merge-mined with Litecoin, so after cutting the reward by 90%, miners' income would have to rely on coin price and transaction fees. If that’s not enough, the hash rate might drop.
But I think the signal itself is more important than the outcome. The community is starting to seriously discuss "deflation," and some people want to tighten the faucet that has been constantly dripping. The price is still just above 0.08, so I’ll hold onto $DOGE and let them discuss it slowly. "Altcoin Season Index Hits Highest in a Year, But One Data Point Contradicts It"
The Altcoin Season Index surged to 66, the highest in a year. But the market breadth doesn't cooperate: only 6 out of 26 categories rose, with breadth at 23.1%, down from 92% three weeks ago.
What's changing? The index is rising, but the market breadth is shrinking. Leading gains are from infrastructure sectors like cross-chain bridges and data availability; Meme fell 6.60%, Solana ecosystem dropped 6.44%. The money isn't rotating, it's contracting.
Why pay attention? Despite the index hitting a new high, breadth is only 23%, indicating this isn't a broad altcoin season but an isolated rally in a few infrastructure sectors. Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $577 million in the past 5 days, with funds moving out of large-cap assets into non-Ethereum ecosystems like NEAR and Internet Computer.
Currently, the data supports a "structural contraction," where the index rise and market decline are driven by two separate asset groups.
Next to watch: Celestia rose 24% in seven days, while peer Arweave fell 4%. Whether this divergence narrows will determine how far this contraction goes. Do you think the isolated infrastructure rally is a prelude or a false signal? $ETH Judging from the timing and pattern of the adjustment, I tend to believe this wave of correction is not over yet. Moreover, the probability of an interest rate hike in October is still so low. Normally, CPI/PPI data would push the rate hike probability up, and if that really happens, the drop would be even more severe.
If Bitcoin can return to around 75k, only then would I consider it a good bottom-fishing opportunity. The three major storage coins also need to drop a bit more to.
#DailyOrbit "BTC surged to 84,000, but one data point is more worth watching than the price"
BTC reached a high of $84,352 last night, but this morning it has already dropped to around $82,500, a decline of over 1% in 24 hours. However, more worth watching than the price is another figure.
What has changed? The Fear and Greed Index plummeted from 69 (Greed) yesterday to 57, dropping 12 points in one day. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $451.8 million this month. The price has only fallen less than 2%, but sentiment and funds are accelerating their retreat.
Why is this worth attention? Price pullbacks are not unusual, but "sentiment collapsing before price" usually means profit-taking quietly exiting rather than panic selling. Coupled with the US-Iran situation pushing up oil prices and a stronger dollar, risk appetite is being suppressed by macro factors.
Which observation is currently more supported? It supports "short-term cooling during high-level consolidation" rather than a trend reversal. The selling pressure above 84,000 is real, but there is still buying support around 82,000, indicating a mild correction rather than a crash.
What should we focus on next? Tomorrow (the 14th) the US CPI data is the biggest variable this week. If CPI exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations will cool further, and BTC may test 82,000 or even 81,000; if CPI is moderate, sentiment is expected to recover quickly. Do you think this pullback is a chance to get in or a signal to retreat? $BTC #贝莱德转向超配短债，下调美股评级 BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has made a tactical adjustment by increasing its overweight position in short-term U.S. Treasuries while downgrading U.S. equities from overweight to neutral. The key point: this is not a long-term bearish view on U.S. stocks but a phase-specific risk control measure; the long-term AI theme remains intact.
Core logic: Currently, short-term bond yields offer a decent risk-free return with improved cost-effectiveness; BlackRock also believes that the market's expectations for further Fed rate hikes may be overestimated. Compared to longer-duration bonds, short-term bonds have less interest rate volatility and are better suited for locking in coupon payments, so short-term bonds are prioritized. The downgrade of U.S. equities mainly reflects concerns that in a sustained high-interest-rate environment, the AI sector may experience amplified short-term volatility, valuation pressure, and investors may choose to realize some gains and increase fixed income allocations for balance.
Implications for crypto: This indicates that leading institutions are actively reducing risk exposure, signaling a convergence in risk appetite. If the Nasdaq and tech stocks are dragged down, high-beta assets like BTC, ETH are likely to face synchronized pressure. However, this is a capital rebalancing rather than systemic panic, so it is likely to result in volatile fluctuations rather than a continuous one-sided sharp decline.
Key follow-up points: short-end U.S. Treasury yields, CPI and other inflation data, and whether other large asset managers follow suit with portfolio adjustments. If more institutions imitate this, the rebound strength of risk assets will continue to be limited. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC Liquidation Map Day 2: Shorts pile up higher, less resistance to the upside?
Yesterday predicted an upward move, got proven wrong. Current record: 0 wins, 1 loss.
Price fell from 84142 to 82784, down 1.6%. Liquidation map update:
On the downside, long liquidation intensity accumulates to $1.1 billion; on the upside, short liquidation intensity is $2 billion. Short positions are nearly twice the longs, so if it moves up, the short squeeze potential is greater.
Key levels:
· 82000: Lower edge of dense long positions, breaking this accelerates forced liquidations.
· 79000: Densest long position zone, buffer thins.
· 84500: First cluster of shorts, one of the highest bars on the map.
· 85000: Second cluster of shorts, the most intense squeeze if broken.
Two possible scenarios:
Upward: Standing above 83332 starts the short squeeze, buy-side closing pushes price up, targets 84449 → 85013 → 86141, shorts are thin above, resistance is low.
Downward: Breaking 82000, watch the 79467 dense long zone, triggering a chain of forced liquidations, buffer is very thin.
My judgment: Short liquidation intensity is $2 billion, long only $1 billion, the path of least resistance is upward. But data does not support a direct surge to 90,000; most likely it will oscillate between 81000 and 85000, no clear trend yet.
What’s your take?
$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 🚨 Both BTC and ETH are weakening! Whales are selling Bitcoin to buy Ethereum—does this really signal a bullish trend?
Last night, a fan asked me: Whales selling BTC and turning to buy ETH, does this mean Ethereum is about to take off?
I didn’t rush to answer but first looked at the 4-hour candlestick chart.
📉 First, let's look at ETH's market performance:
It fell from $2769 down to $2406, then rebounded to around $2580 but has struggled to break through further.
The rebound lacks strength, volume hasn’t significantly increased, and there is still considerable potential selling pressure above. This kind of movement cannot yet be easily identified as a reversal.
A rebound does not equal a reversal, and whales rotating positions does not equal bullishness!
🐋 Now, looking at the whales’ actions:
They sold 410 BTC and bought 14,341 ETH.
On the surface, this looks like asset rotation; but based on this single transaction, we cannot confirm whether whales are bottom-fishing ETH or adjusting overall risk exposure.
What really matters is: why is the capital moving? After the trade, has the spot demand for BTC and ETH improved? Is there sustained follow-up buying?
If it’s just a position swap without new buying pressure, this operation may not become a catalyst for ETH’s rise.
⚠️ What’s more concerning is crowded shorts and spot selling pressure!
If short positions are indeed highly concentrated, there is a short-term possibility of a short squeeze triggering a rebound.
But if the spot market continues to face selling pressure, even crowded shorts do not mean Cryptocurrency Micro Changes Under Macro Stability
S&P 500 futures hold steady, the Bank of Japan remains on hold, the Federal Reserve's independence is in play, and the macro environment is temporarily stable. However, beneath the surface at the micro level, undercurrents are stirring: Binance mining pool shutdown, tightening AI financing, whale coin mixing, and strict crackdowns in Hong Kong. The crypto market is currently in a phase of "macro calm + micro restructuring." BTC shows resilience relying on long-term holder cost (48,600), ETH faces whale portfolio adjustments, the AI sector is squeezed by traditional markets, and compliance is accelerating (Binance, Hong Kong). Short-term trends may continue to fluctuate with BTC dominance rising; in the medium term, AI and semiconductor cycles and the Bank of Japan's December decision will set the direction. Investors should maintain core BTC positions, while micro events drive short-term moves, remaining cautious of spillover impacts from macro tech stock corrections. To be honest, once $SNDK pulls above 1500, I'll be watching for short positions. The underlying stock's positive news has been realized, but the persistent selling pressure on-chain hasn't improved. When the US stock market dropped on the 13th, the on-chain market followed directly. I opened a short at 1482.8 with 75x leverage.
At that time, the 1-hour was overbought and the daily chart was under pressure, so I was just waiting for a pullback—now marked at 1448.2, with an unrealized profit of +175%. The price has fallen from the recent high in the past two days, and long leverage is being cleaned out.
Looking ahead, watch if 1420 holds; if it breaks, it will head straight to 1370; if the rebound doesn't surpass 1480, it's still a short. Planning to halve the position at 1420, keep the base position at 1370, and avoid holding high leverage positions. $W $SOL OpenAI Setbacks and AI Crypto Narrative
OpenAI is investigating the performance decline of GPT-6.1, compounded by JPMorgan cutting AI loans and semiconductor congested trading, causing short-term obstacles in the AI sector. For the crypto AI segment, this is an opportunity to "separate the wheat from the chaff": previously, AI tokens rose broadly with the traditional AI boom, but now technical bottlenecks and tightened financing will eliminate bubbles. However, progress in chips and semiconductor EDA shows breakthroughs at the hardware foundation level are still ongoing. If crypto AI focuses on differentiated scenarios such as computing power networks (like Livepeer) and data privacy (like Ocean), it still holds long-term value. In the short term, AI crypto tokens may follow tech stocks in a pullback. It is recommended to avoid "AI concept coins" without substantial products and to focus on Web3 projects integrated with real AI infrastructure, waiting for opportunities after sentiment clears.#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6%
Microsoft launches high-speed decision AI model with speeds up to 35 times faster.
In recent years, efforts in small models and edge decision agents have been highly representative. But how valuable is this so-called "35x acceleration," and how far can the small model approach go? Third-party verification must overcome substantial tests:
The so-called 35x refers to whether it is benchmarked against cutting-edge large models or itself. If it compares a "small model that outputs structured actions in a single step" to a "massive general-purpose large model that writes thousands of words of reasoning process," this speedup is essentially a compression of the task paradigm rather than a pure leap in underlying computational efficiency.
Microsoft has deep customizations in Windows Copilot Runtime, ONNX, DirectML, and NPU underlying layers. If the 35x performance heavily relies on Microsoft's proprietary kernel fusion or specific hardware acceleration stacks, and third parties experience significant performance degradation when deploying on standard vLLM, SGLang, or conventional Linux containers, its commercial generalization value will rapidly diminish.
It is clear that Microsoft's ambition is to break free from sole dependence on OpenAI's expensive inference compute: if every user call to Copilot requires pulling up a large model in the cloud, Azure's gross margin will remain under pressure. Using an extremely lightweight, ultra-fast internal model as a "frontline gatekeeper" can greatly reduce the per-inference cost in the cloud.
$MSFT #利雅得机场遇袭，沙特加快陆路输油布局
On the afternoon of October 10, Riyadh King Khalid International Airport was hit by a missile attack, resulting in at least 13 deaths and over 300 injuries, causing the airport to shut down completely for a time. The Yemeni Houthi forces claimed responsibility for the attack and carried out four military operations within the past 24 hours targeting airports and energy facilities inside Saudi Arabia, including two facilities of Saudi Aramco located in the Eastern Province. On October 11, King Khalid International Airport was attacked again, causing the death of one Pakistani citizen and injuring 11 others.
This is part of the recent sustained attacks by the Houthi forces against Saudi Arabia. From October 5 to 7, four airports in southern Saudi Arabia—Jazan, Najran, Abha, and Riyadh—were successively attacked, resulting in a total of 3 deaths and 39 injuries. The targets of the attacks expanded from airports to refineries and natural gas facilities; the Rabigh refinery and Riyadh Aramco facilities were "directly hit," causing fires.
Energy infrastructure and aviation hubs have simultaneously become targets, placing Saudi Arabia in a structural dilemma: even with sufficient crude oil production capacity, the security of export routes cannot be guaranteed. Saudi Aramco's CEO Nasser previously stated clearly that the company is fully capable of raising crude oil daily production to the extreme limit of 12 million barrels within a few days, but the real bottleneck has always been the security and predictability of export routes.
On October 12, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman announced at the Riyadh World Petroleum Congress that Saudi Arabia plans to increase its overland oil transport capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to 10 million barrels per day within the next two to three years. This scale is basically equivalent to Saudi Arabia's total crude oil output during peacetime.
The core channel is the "East-West Pipeline," spanning 1,200 kilometers across Saudi territory, connecting the core oilfields in the east with the Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast. Its initial design capacity was 7 million barrels per day. As of early October, the actual daily throughput of this pipeline has increased to 5.8 million barrels, of which about 4.5 million barrels are shipped from Yanbu port, and the rest supply western refineries. In September, the pipeline was temporarily shut down due to a drone attack, but Saudi Aramco fully restored oil supply in less than a week.
A more innovative arrangement involves cross-border restructuring of the existing natural gas pipeline network. Abdulaziz stated that an existing natural gas main pipeline can be adjusted within seven to eight weeks to temporarily carry about 1.2 million barrels of crude oil per day; with additional investment in pump stations and compressors, the daily oil transport potential could be further increased to 3 million barrels. This pipeline will be temporarily used for crude oil export until around May next year, after which, due to the surge in natural gas demand for power generation and cooling during the Saudi summer, the pipeline will be shut down for cleaning and revert to its natural gas supply role. Saudi Arabia is evaluating with Aramco a "dual oil and gas use" normalization mechanism, by adding composite pump station systems to dynamically switch the same pipeline network between crude oil and natural gas transport according to security conditions and seasonal peaks and troughs.
Market pricing of supply risks has risen rapidly. Brent crude December contracts closed up 1.84% at $106.65 per barrel on October 12, marking the highest close since September 15; WTI rose 2% to $93.74 per barrel. The oil price increase is mainly driven by the deterioration of Saudi security, with the deadly attacks by the Houthi forces intensifying market concerns about conflict escalation threatening Saudi energy production and exports.
The deep logic behind Saudi Arabia's plan for a multi-million barrel-level channel is not simply to expand transport volume but to build a wartime security redundancy network with complementary resilience: when maritime transport in the Persian Gulf is blocked, quickly shift export focus to the Red Sea; when individual overland pipelines are disrupted, redistribute flow through other inland pipelines. The benefits of using the East-West Pipeline have far exceeded its construction costs, and Saudi Arabia is accelerating technical pressure upgrades on pump stations along the route to further squeeze potential capacity.
Constraints also exist. The Red Sea route itself faces attack threats from the Houthi forces, and a single outlet cannot provide absolute security. The Red Sea route, previously relied upon by Saudi Arabia, was shut down after an attack in September, showing that even overland pipelines cannot completely avoid attack risks. More critically, this expansion plan requires massive investment and several years to implement, while current security threats are immediate and ongoing. Shell CEO Savin warned that the longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be for the market to absorb these disruptions, "this situation cannot continue indefinitely," and new supply interruptions may still occur.
In the short term, the pricing focus of oil has shifted from geopolitical risk premiums to immediate pricing of actual supply disruptions. Whether Saudi Arabia can maintain stable exports before the pipeline expansion is completed will depend on air defense interception efficiency, redundancy of alternative routes, and whether the conflict escalates further to directly target core oil production facilities.On October 12, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $65.4 million, and the ETH fund had a net outflow of $85.4 million, totaling approximately $151 million for the two combined. Breaking down the Farside sub-items, outflows were concentrated in a few products; not every fund was being redeemed.
The entire BTC net outflow was recorded in BlackRock IBIT; for ETH, $75.1 million flowed out from BlackRock ETHA and $10.3 million from Grayscale ETH, with the net amount for other listed funds being zero on that day. A zero net amount results from subscriptions offsetting redemptions and does not mean no transactions occurred.
On the same day, the SOL fund had a net outflow of $700,000, coming from VanEck's VSOL. The three groups had the same direction of funds, but different fund sizes, so the amounts cannot be directly ranked as a strength list of coin prices. Next, it will be worth watching whether redemptions spread from these few products or if subscriptions from other funds take over.
Source: Original Farside BTC, ETH, SOL tables, statistics date 10/12, captured between 17:03–17:06 Beijing time on 10/13, automatic statistics may be revised. Chart units are in millions of USD, parentheses indicate outflows; the three coins below serve only as corresponding spot market navigation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Semiconductor Crowded Trades and Crypto Hardware
A Bank of America survey shows tech stock allocations hitting a new high since 2020, with semiconductors being the most crowded trade; chip and semiconductor EDA have been validated in AI scenarios like CPO, but Morgan Stanley warns of a cyclical top risk in memory stocks. Traditional semiconductor overheating coexists with breakthroughs in AI hardware, reflecting in the crypto market: mining machine chips (such as Bitmain ASICs) face intensified competition from AI computing hardware, and mining companies may face rising chip procurement costs and AI computing power diversion. Impact on crypto: BTC mining difficulty remains high, and mining machine upgrade cycles are constrained by semiconductor cycles; if AI aggressively purchases advanced process nodes, mining machine capacity may be limited, indirectly supporting coin prices. However, if the crowded semiconductor trade collapses in the short term, a tech stock pullback will weigh on crypto sentiment, requiring caution for correlated volatility. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $SNDK bottom buy? It's not at the bottom yet, don't rush, folks.
You can check the chart where I explained in the chatroom why the US stock market has weakened recently.
Personal trading strategy: prioritize placing short orders around 1450-1460; more aggressive traders can enter at the current price, but keep a good position for averaging down. The target is 1400-1350.
#阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点 亿姐聊币圈 | 2026年10月13日 Token 2049新加坡结束了。25000人挤满滨海湾金沙，纳斯达克CEO Adena Friedman、富兰克林邓普顿CEO Jenny Johnson、贝莱德、摩根大通的负责人全部到场。说是"币圈大会"，但我最大的感受是——大家已经不关心还能再造什么新币了，真正在讨论的是：Crypto还能给金融行业留下什么？ 这个问题，才是决定我们长期持有的底层逻辑。 一、从"炒币"到"修路"——Crypto正在变成金融基础设施 以前看Crypto，大家聊的是"什么币能涨"“什么项目能冲”。但这次Token 2049，真正往前走的全是底层的东西：支付和结算。 传统金融发展了几十年，跨境结算要等几天、中间机构多、成本高。而区块链的优势极其直接——更快、更便宜、7×24小时全天候运行。 一组数据说明问题： Stripe标准线上刷卡费率：100美元收3.2美元 稳定币支付费率：约0.8%，即100美元只收8毛钱 过去12个月，经调整后的全球稳定币交易量达10.2万亿美元，同比暴涨63% 今年3月，三菱商事开始用摩根大通的Kinexys区块链账户，在新加坡、伦敦BTC anchors the market cycle, ETH reflects the overall capital flow in the crypto ecosystem, and SUI tracks the incremental capital inflow into the new public chain ecosystem. Comparing all three together makes it easier to judge whether the new generation public chain sector has formed a sustained trend than focusing on the rise and fall of a single coin.
BTC sets the big direction; it is stable, so capital dares to take risks; ETH reflects the ecosystem's temperature; if it is strong, it means money is willing to flow to the application layer; SUI looks at incremental capital; if it gains volume, it indicates hot money is paying attention to the new public chain.
The current macro environment is not easy: #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验; TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a new high, but the earnings highlights are still to be revealed; although institutions continue to build positions, BTC remains under pressure, and risk appetite has not fully recovered. ETH's capital flow has not significantly increased, and SUI's incremental capital also needs confirmation.
Only when all three resonate can the new public chain sector sustain; if only SUI fluctuates, it is mostly a local rotation and won't go far. Key points to watch: BTC critical levels, ETH capital return, and SUI incremental sustainability. Wait for the signals, don't rush.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
$BTC $ETH $SUI
For personal observation only, not investment advice.$BTC Cold reflections amid the AI boom and the crypto AI sector
JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have cut their loan exposure to AI cloud startup Volta by about $5 billion, underwriting only $1.3 billion, a rare tightening of risk control by traditional investment banks. Meanwhile, a Bank of America survey shows tech stock allocations at their highest since 2020, with semiconductors being the most crowded trade. Morgan Stanley also warns that storage stocks are the most dangerous at the cycle peak, coupled with OpenAI's investigation revealing a performance decline in GPT-6.1. The AI narrative in traditional markets is facing a triple test of "overheated expectations + tightening financing + technical flaws." For the crypto market's AI sector (such as RNDR, AKT, etc.), the traditional AI downturn will trigger capital outflows: in the short term, there may be correlated pullbacks due to reduced risk appetite, but in the long term, crypto AI, leveraging decentralized computing power and flexible financing, could become a new safe haven for overflow capital. Caution is needed against AI coins that merely ride the hype; focus on those with real-world application scenarios. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother!
Why does the price movement of Bitcoin and Ethereum always seem so magical every time the CPI data is released?
I wonder if anyone else has this feeling: even if the inflation data is worse than expected, ETH can occasionally surge several points within an hour. But don’t rush to shout that the bad news is fully priced in! This wave of rise is mostly caused by short positions being forced to close, not by a large influx of new funds buying in.
Ultimately, the CPI game is about expectations for future interest rates. As long as core inflation rises slightly, the probability of rate hikes will quickly soar. But the market is smart; declines often reflect pessimistic expectations in advance, and after the data is released, it tends to trigger short-covering rebounds.
The new CPI data will be released on October 14. My view:
If total inflation is pushed to 0.6% by oil prices, but core inflation is only 0.2%, the market will most likely first drop sharply and then form a V-shaped recovery. 83,300 is the key dividing line for BTC; only if it holds above this level is there a chance to challenge 85,000. If it falls below 82,500, then the 80,000 level is hard to hold. ETH’s volatility will be more intense than BTC’s.
My approach: don’t bet on long or short positions prematurely! If inflation is high, patiently wait for a pullback; if inflation declines, then follow the trend to go long.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
The leader has something to say
Last week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw outflows totaling $1.221 billion. BTC had a net outflow of $679 million, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows. ETH had a net outflow of $542 million, marking the largest single-week outflow since January and nine consecutive trading days of outflows.
Has institutional demand weakened? I think it's temporary. Before the CPI release, funds are seeking safety first; this does not mean the allocation logic has changed. ETH outflows are more severe, related to continuous ETF fund withdrawals and BitMine announcing ETH holdings have peaked. Without a big buyer, ETH is weaker in the short term.
But the market rebounded today, BTC rose 2.07%, ETH rose 2.81%. This shows a divergence between fund flows and short-term prices. There is selling pressure, but also buyers. The market is waiting for the CPI to set the direction.
I hold long positions at 83000 and short positions at 86500, hedged on both sides with light exposure. No one-sided bets before CPI release. Long stop loss at 81500, target 86000. Short stop loss at 87500, target 84500 to 85000. Whichever target is reached first, reduce that side first. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
ETF outflows are a slow variable, reflecting institutional caution, not panic. The real direction is determined by inflation data and US Treasury yields. Before the data comes out, hold hedged positions, do not chase highs or sell lows.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set. Good luck.Why has the ETH quantitative bot been running continuously but never opening orders?
Brothers, today I cross-checked the WorkBuddy scheduled tasks with the ETH paper trading logs and found the issue.
13:12 score 17.0
14:14 highest score 19.3
15:16 dropped to 5.9
16:18 only 5.8
The opening threshold is 39.6; the highest score didn’t even reach half the threshold, so naturally, no trades were triggered.
Looking at the market, ETH dropped from around$BTC Digital Gold and Sovereign Credit
Waller stated that the U.S. Treasury risk premium no longer exists, and combined with Trump's failed threats to the Federal Reserve's independence, the sovereign credit system is undergoing a test. This is the perfect soil for Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative. Although the sell-off in South Korea caused short-term disturbances, the macro essence remains unchanged: debt expansion and political intervention weaken fiat credit, strengthening the long-term value logic of crypto assets. Investors should distinguish between "short-term liquidity shocks" and "long-term value reassessment." Amid the turmoil, BTC's core position remains solid, while high-beta altcoins require careful selection. The crypto market will eventually reflect this macro transformation, so maintain patience and clarity. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BTC pulled back above 83,000 — is this a rebound or a dead cat bounce?
Here's the conclusion first: This move from below 81,000 back above 83,000, I lean towards it being a technical recovery after a wick.
First, how did it drop?
The South Korean KOSPI plunged over 6% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker. Samsung and Hynix each dropped about 8%, dragging down the entire Asian tech sector. BTC was hit along with risk assets, with a wick dipping below 81,000.
So why did it bounce back? Decoupling.
When BTC rebounded, the South Korean stock market and Nasdaq futures were still falling, not rising at all. What does this indicate? The short-term selling pressure has been fully released; BTC’s bounce is not a passive recovery following the stock market.
Additionally, the 50-day moving average is right around 81,000, which is a key support level closely watched by technical traders—if it falls below, buyers step in. The spot ETF’s cost basis is also mostly clustered around 83,000, so there is a natural capital floor.
What about the direction?
83,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears:
If it holds above, a short-term bottom is likely formed;
If it doesn’t hold, the next psychological support is 80,000, and below that, 77,600 is the average cost zone for ETF investors, which is another defense line.
My own stance: chasing longs is pointless. This move looks more like a defensive pullback ahead of Thursday’s CPI data. Until the news is out, it’s best to maintain positions and avoid trading.