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Amid the ongoing market downturn, I have accumulated $ENA and $PENDLE on dips.
For ENA, I am betting on an as-yet-unrealized "catalyst," while for Pendle, I am capitalizing on a "mechanism" that the market sentiment has unfairly punished.
ENA (Ethena): Awaiting the long winter night of "fuel"
Core logic: Betting on USDe supply surpassing $7.5 billion, triggering a buyback flywheel of 95% net revenue.
· Current status: USDe supply is about $4.8 billion, still about 56% growth short of the $7.5 billion threshold. The buyback switch has not yet been activated.
· Recent bearish news: On October 5, approximately 1.41 billion ENA tokens (14.3% of circulating supply) were unlocked. Although this was an "early end" rather than new selling pressure, the large supply has already entered the market.
Pendle (PENDLE): Mechanism operational, unfairly punished by sentiment
Core logic: The hard mechanism of 80% revenue buyback is already in effect; the current downturn is more a result of market sentiment and leverage liquidation.
· Mechanism advantage: Pendle uses 80% of protocol revenue to buy back PENDLE on the open market via smart contracts and distributes it to stakers. This is fully verifiable on-chain and is a hard-coded ratio.
· Revenue and valuation: Annualized holder income is about $16 million, corresponding to a run-rate P/S of about 15-20x, which is relatively favorable among effective cash flow assets.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Why is $SNDK falling if the storage supply-demand gap isn’t expected to close until 2028?
The fundamentals haven’t necessarily changed, but the market is already pricing in a potential profit peak in 2027. ChangXin’s breakthrough in 4F² technology has raised fears that storage chips could become much cheaper in the future.
However, SanDisk’s NAND outlook remains intact, with the supply-demand gap expected to peak in Q1 2028.
#DailyOrbit Harmak calls for a rate hike, which sounds scary on the surface, but October is not locked in, it seems like a preemptive shot.
In my view, a rate hike in October is unlikely, and it may only happen in December.
The real fear is not CPI, but the dollar and capital outflows. The dollar is very strong now, and money prefers to return to dollar assets.
If core inflation decreases, Bitcoin can still catch a breath; if core inflation exceeds expectations, 80000 is very likely not to hold.
Overall, December is the big thunder, let the bullets fly a little longer～
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 In the late surge phase of this B wave, the geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz adds an extra layer of risk premium.
But $BTC is quite special: in the short term, it will be speculated as a safe-haven asset, pushing prices up; however, if the geopolitical conflict continues to drive oil prices higher and reinforces inflation stickiness, the market will react again—high interest rates will persist longer, eventually turning into a negative factor, causing the premium to reverse in both directions.
$ETH: The premium component is higher at the 2806 peak in this wave. Its rise, besides BTC's beta, also includes the expected premium from Ethereum ecosystem and ETH ETF forward capital inflows, so when it falls, the premium retracts more sharply.
• $SNDK: The stock price rise also trades on forward AI storage demand, which is a forward cash flow premium; once the discount rate rises, the premium compresses quickly.
In short: The B wave market from 57000 to 87000, most of the late surge to 87000 is a premium market that overextends the easing expectations; if the inflation narrative remains strong, this part of the premium will be gradually given back. Tonight's market is a bit interesting; BTC and ETH are starting to diverge.
BTC bounced back from 80961V, touched 84130 twice tonight, couldn't hold above 84000, but there are plenty of orders below 82600 supporting it, so it won't drop further. This V-shape rebound is solid.
ETH looks much worse. After breaking the critical 2626 level, it never recovered. Last night it bottomed at 2407, today it bounced to 2544 and stopped, falling harder than BTC and rebounding weaker. ETF money is still flowing out; institutions now only recognize BTC, not ETH.
So on the US stock side, the Dow rises while the Nasdaq falls; in crypto, BTC is strong and ETH is weak. It's the same story: money is moving from expensive assets to safer ones. With interest rates raised this much, the storytellers are quiet, and those holding the strong assets survive.
My current view: no talk of strength until BTC holds above 84000, no talk of bottom until ETH recovers above 2626. Both lines await the CPI report at 8:30 PM tomorrow for answers.
I won't make any moves tonight or before tomorrow night.
Who has more BTC or ETH in hand now?
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Everyone is waiting for tomorrow's US CPI data, the market is a bit hesitant, $BTC is relatively resistant to decline, while alts are weaker, it feels like everyone is waiting for a direction.
BTC is currently hovering around 83600, it once dropped to 81000 overnight but was quickly bought back. Personally, I think the key support is around 81000-83000, with resistance roughly at 84500-87000. In the short term, it's likely to remain volatile; if the CPI data doesn't exceed expectations, it might try to test the upper side again, but breaking through will require more incremental funds.
$ETH is now around 2520, consistently holding the key level of 2400; if it falls below, it will be bought, but ETF outflows are ongoing, which is somewhat dragging the funds. Resistance is seen at 2570-2600. I think as long as 2400 holds, there is still a chance to retest around 2760 later, but we need sentiment to improve.
$SOL has dropped relatively more, currently around 108, holding near 107.5. Resistance above is roughly 114-120, and further up is 125. Personally, I think the short term is still weak; only if it can effectively hold above 120 will there be a chance to see 150, otherwise it will continue to consolidate.I spent a long time staring at SanDisk’s candlestick chart today. Pre-market trading showed the price around $1,434, down nearly 4%. For a moment, I considered closing my long position. But only for a moment. I opened a document and wrote down every negative headline hitting the market: competition from CXMT’s DRAM technology, semiconductor capital flows weakening, foreign investors continuing to sell, Samsung plunging 6.7%, SK Hynix falling more than 8%, and hawkish comments suggesting interest价格绕了一圈，还是原来的价格，合约仓位却没了。@梁老表 这场最重要的提醒，不是立刻从空头变成死多头，而是承认自己可能跟市场的看空情绪靠得太近：跌了这么久，关键支撑仍没破，就不能继续把深跌当成唯一剧本。他保留调整的可能，却开始认真推演另一条路——这轮回调也许已经接近结束。 先看 $ETH。老表认为，2400附近已经得到再次测试，随后又收了回来，小级别双底没有被破坏。这意味着支撑并不是纸上的一条线，而是当前必须尊重的边界。只要2400不破，不能因为此前预期下跌，就无脑等2100、2200或者更低位置，更不能拿着空单一路扛，假设市场必然按自己的路线走。 真正让他考虑转向的，是2550—2560附近的日线MA50。他给的条件很明确：看本周能不能重新站上这条均线，并在上方守住。如果收复后下不来，周线也得到修复，那么原来的下破就可能只是一个假动作，把大家的情绪引向空头后，价格重新回到上方。这才是他所说的偏多确认，不是看到一根反弹就立即宣布调整结束。 在2400不破、并且本周收回2560的前提下，他给出ETH的理想上方目标3000—3300。这是条件成立后的推演空间，不能脱离前提单独当成目标价喊单。I’m still buying into this SanDisk pullback.
1419.1 Long $SNDK
Since the Changxin news broke, the market has spent the past two days pricing in the idea that rising domestic memory production will destroy SanDisk’s competitive advantage. I think this reaction is excessive.
Changxin’s main focus is DRAM, while SanDisk’s core business revolves around NAND and SSDs.
#DailyOrbit Ceasefire rumors suppress oil prices, BTC and gold await CPI "deal"
On October 11, Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine have reached an agreement on an energy ceasefire. Once the news broke, the market first traded on "reduced supply risk": oil prices were briefly pushed down, and the energy premium was squeezed out. However, this ceasefire has not yet been fully confirmed by both Russia and Ukraine, with the scope, duration, and supervision mechanisms unclear, meaning oil prices could fluctuate again at any time due to reversal news.
Interestingly, the weakening oil price did not simply negatively impact all assets. For $BTC and gold, the decline in energy prices can ease inflation concerns and instead provide temporary bottom support. However, whether the two can continue to rebound depends not only on oil prices but also on the real-time pricing of U.S. Treasury yields: if yields fall, the pressure on non-yielding assets is relieved; if yields rebound due to rising inflation expectations, $BTC and gold will remain under pressure.
The real highlight is the CPI on the 14th. This data will determine how the market adjusts the rate cut path and inflation stickiness assessment, and will also transmit to the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and BTC. Before that, the ceasefire news seems more like a short-term disturbance rather than a trend answer. The market is waiting for the next card. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
$BTC Both sides are flowing out together, but not at the same percentage.
▪️ On 10/7 same day: Bitcoin ETF redemption was 485 million, Ethereum 161 million, the former being the largest since 6/25
▪️ But relative to their respective pools, Bitcoin's outflow is only a portion of Ethereum's
▪️ Last week, ETFs were positive four out of five days, with only 82.9 million left for the week, down from 2.39 billion the previous week
▪️ Meanwhile, on-chain whales stopped sending coins at the end of August, and the profit realization ratio of long-term holders rose from 34% to 55%
The divergence is not about whether both sides flow out together, but about which pool the redemption amount is divided by to measure severity.
The term "simultaneous outflow" places two quantities of different magnitudes side by side: the total pool of Bitcoin ETFs is much larger than Ethereum's, so the impact of the same amount of money on both sides is completely different. Therefore, to judge the direction, one cannot only look at the absolute amount but must consider the relative denominator. There is also reverse evidence for whether institutional demand has weakened—the profit realization ratio of on-chain long-term holders is rising, indicating supply-side turnover is happening simultaneously.
The direction is to wait and see—only if the relative ratio continues to narrow can it be considered a simultaneous weakening; if only the absolute amounts move in the same direction, it is a measurement illusion.$SNDK previously stated that the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. ChangXin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "China's chip rise," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."
SanDisk's fundamentals are fine—the NAND supply-demand gap won't peak until Q1 2028.
#SepCPIHikeWatch Daily spot investment of 90u, on the 5️⃣✖️🔟➕4️⃣ day
Brothers, hold on. $BTC $ETH $OKB
A weekly outflow of $678.9 million — US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow last week, with a single-day outflow of $484.9 million on October 7. Institutional money is withdrawing, but the price hasn't crashed, indicating spot support is still there.#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% 半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% 半导体板块遭遇集中抛售，韩国KOSPI指数大幅下挫，市场对AI产业链高估值、资金拥挤度以及存储芯片周期的担忧正在升温。 我的看法：这轮下跌不能简单理解为AI行情结束，更需要警惕高位估值回调与资金集中撤退带来的连锁反应。 第一，半导体交易过于拥挤。 此前AI算力、HBM存储、DRAM和NAND等产业链持续受到资金追捧。当市场预期高度一致时，一旦出现利空或盈利不及预期，获利盘集中兑现，就可能引发板块快速下跌。 第二，重点观察存储芯片的基本面。 韩国半导体产业对全球存储市场具有重要影响。三星电子、SK海力士等公司的股价表现，不仅反映市场情绪，也体现资金对存储价格、AI需求及未来利润增长的重新定价。 只要AI算力需求没有出现实质性逆转，就不能仅凭股价暴跌判断行业景气周期结束。但如果存储价格涨势放缓、库存增加或资本开支回报低于预期，就需要重新评估估值。 第三，真正的风险是流动性与估值共振。 当热门板块出现大幅回撤，杠杆资金和量化交易可能进一步放大波动。即使长期产业逻辑没有改变，短期股价也可能持续承压。 接#Strategy slowdown in accumulation, corporate treasury strategy changing? As the most benchmark BTC corporate treasury representative, the pace of coin purchases has clearly cooled down. The funds raised through financing are no longer entirely spent on buying coins; a considerable portion is prioritized for repurchasing preferred shares, optimizing debt structure, and supplementing cash buffers, sparking market discussion: Has the long-term coin hoarding approach changed?
Its classic model in the past was straightforward: issuing shares to raise funds, prioritizing buying BTC with the funds, and continuously expanding holdings. Now, entering an active capital management phase, dividends and debts are prioritized, liquidity is reserved, and the blind acceleration of accumulation is stopped. The core reason is the high interest rate environment raising financing costs, combined with the narrowing premium of MSTR stock price, reducing the cost-effectiveness of "issuing shares to exchange for coins."
Key distinction: slowdown in accumulation ≠ abandoning the BTC treasury strategy. There is currently no official announcement to stop hoarding coins; it has just shifted from aggressive acceleration to a more conservative mode that pays more attention to financing windows. If the stock price premium recovers and the financing environment improves later, there is no ruling out a renewed increase in buying intensity.
The funding signal of this matter deserves attention: it is one of the important sources of incremental off-exchange supply. The slowdown means a significant short-term reduction in certain buy-side support, which is somewhat bearish for BTC sentiment. But it is a rhythm adjustment, not a concentrated sell-off, and completely different from directly selling coins to exit.
Follow-up focus: weekly coin purchase announcements, ATM issuance quota usage, and whether there is continuous selling of coins to pay debts and dividends. If low-pace buying is maintained long-term, it means the incremental mainline of corporate treasury is temporarily weakening. $BTC $ETH $BTC dropped to the 80,000 level. Is this rebound a bull counterattack or a bull trap? 😯
Has everyone noticed that during the Token2049 conference, Bitcoin fell sharply from 87,000 down to around 80,300, dropping 7,000 points in one go, which was quite unexpected.
Comparing the charts, the market divergence is very obvious. ETH directly broke below its previous consolidation support, touching the initial rise level near 2,400; but BTC held the mid-term level at 80,300 and did not break down further. You can see that the buying support at this level is very strong. In the early hours of October 12, it tested 80,300 twice with wicks but pulled back near 80,900 each time, showing visible support strength.
However, there is a doubt that makes me hesitant to be bullish easily. According to past patterns, if institutions truly want to push prices up, they usually first smash through the round number to clear all stop losses below before starting the rise. This time, Bitcoin just stopped falling above 80,000, which feels like it’s attracting bulls to enter, and the shakeout is not sufficient, making it highly suspicious of being a bull trap.
My own approach is a bit cautious; I’m temporarily keeping a high-level short position idea and may consider adding shorts when the rebound reaches the resistance zone between 84,300 and 85,500.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 From the perspective of cyclical capital preference, distinguish between early-cycle value narratives and late-cycle Meme frenzy
At different stages of a cycle, capital preferences vary completely. Early stages focus on fundamentals, while mid-to-late stages see capital favoring speculative sentiment-driven assets.
$BTC is used to judge the current cycle phase, $ETH to observe shifts in capital preference. Layered screening: do not use fundamental logic to evaluate Meme coins in the late cycle.
Tracking list:
🟠BTC｜Cycle positioning benchmark
🔵ETH｜Capital preference gauge
🟣ATOM｜Cross-chain leader
🟢LINK｜Oracle leader
🔷FET｜AI crypto asset
Key observation of BTC and ETH relative strength:
In the early cycle, fundamental assets like LINK and FET lead the rally; in the mid-to-late cycle, Meme assets surge in rotation while fundamental assets lag, signaling a cycle phase transition. 真正吃掉散户的，往往不是暴跌，而是那种"看起来要涨"的宽幅震荡。$ETH 从2407被猛拉到接近2533，表面强势，但7天仍跌6.19%——这不是趋势，是绞肉机。 我的交易逻辑一直很简单：买入后只要没触及止损，浮盈超过15%，就把止损上移到成本价。用小成本换大利润，逻辑没错，现实很残酷。一旦遇上震荡行情，即便不至于亏钱，也几乎赚不到钱。浮盈刚冒头，价格轻轻一回调，保本止损就被扫掉。刚把你赶下车，价格又涨回去，那种滋味很难受。 在$ETH这种宽幅震荡里，"保本止损"恰恰是巨鲸猎杀散户的完美靶点。你挂上保本止损，等于告诉大资金"我扛不住波动"——不扫你扫谁？这不是阴谋论，而是市场结构决定的：流动性最密集的地方，就是止损单最集中的地方，价格天然会被吸引过去。 交易是妥协的艺术。不设止损，迟早爆仓；设保本止损，就得忍受被反复扫出。既然选择防守反击，就得接受震荡市里赚不到钱、或者被扫出局的代价。保本止损是防守，它会让你错过一些大行情，但至少保证你在极端行情里活下来。 这里有个容易被忽视的二阶效应：当多数人把止损上移到成本价，市场的"有效波动区间"反而被放大——因为每一次扫损都会制造额外的买卖压力About the BNB burn mechanism:
In the Auto-Burn formula, the higher the BNB price in the current quarter, the fewer BNB tokens are burned; the lower the price, the more tokens are burned.
After BNB Smart Chain increased block speed, the parameters of the Auto-Burn formula were adjusted to maintain the original burn concept.
$BNB 745.66 (-0.027%)
How to operate is up to you; this is just a share.SanDisk fell from 1909 to 1445, how are those who chased the highs doing now?
Last week they were still hyping SanDisk, saying Rosenblatt's target price was 2400, and NAND price hikes were in a super cycle. What about now? SanDisk is at 1445, down 460 dollars from the high of 1909, a 24% loss. RSI dropped straight from 94 to oversold, and the candlesticks are all big bearish lines.
$SNDK 1445, down nearly 10% in two days. When it previously jumped over 100 points at the open, how many people chased in? Now they're all stuck at the peak. The NAND price hike logic hasn't changed, Q1 rose 60%, Q2 is expected to rise 70%, but the stock price just doesn't buy it. No logic when it rises, no logic when it falls.
The most ironic is Rosenblatt. They just initiated coverage with a buy rating and a target price of 2400 in early October, citing AI reshaping NAND value. Now the stock price is 1445, nearly 1000 dollars below the target price. Institutions call the shots, retail investors take the losses, a classic script.
$MU 938, fell 5% along with SanDisk. Micron at least has a 35 billion buyback supporting it, SanDisk has nothing, purely relying on NAND price hike expectations. Once expectations loosen, it will fall much harder than Micron.
Now the question is: Is SanDisk at 1445 a bottom-fishing opportunity or a continuation of the downtrend?
Bulls say NAND prices will continue to rise next year, earnings will double, and the PE is only 19 times, cheap.
Bears say Changxin's capacity is coming online, NAND prices will collapse next year, and bottom-fishing now is catching a falling knife.
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 It's cheaper now, so what?
Regarding $HYPE, I think the easiest mistake to make right now is to confuse active trading with a price bottom. Around 82.7, it dropped about 5.3% in 24 hours, but the trading volume was about $940 million. There are buyers and sellers; a large trading volume only indicates active trading, it doesn't directly mean the buyers have the upper hand. At this point, convincing yourself with the hype doesn't help much. We're discussing long-term development, but enduring short-term volatility — these two things must be distinguished. If the only reason to buy is "everyone is still talking about it," when the price continues to drop, it's easy to suddenly switch to "planning to hold long-term."
$PENDLE is already near 2.05, down about 10% in the past month. I want to ask: if you didn't buy before, why do you want to buy now? If it's just because it's cheaper than before, that's not enough reason. After the price discount, whether the reasons that originally justified a higher valuation still exist is what needs to be reconsidered. You can't keep thinking it's a bargain as the price keeps falling, ending up with only lower costs and heavier positions.
$SEI is around 0.062, down about 9% in 24 hours, but still up nearly 40% over the past month. This is interesting: at the same price, early buyers might feel they can still endure, but newcomers are already struggling. So when I see bullish or bearish comments, I don't follow them blindly. Others who entered early with light positions can wait, but that doesn't mean you can. First, calculate how much volatility you can still tolerate, then consider whether this trade is worth it.现在更像博弈段，不是追涨段，也不是干净的趋势延续。 你猜，两个方向完全相反的大户，谁在替市场交学费？ 我盯着这场"十一老板"和"马吉大哥"的对台戏看了一会儿，最大的感受不是谁赚谁亏，而是节奏已经变了。十一老板的ETH永续30倍全仓多，均价2630.03，结果2620.29就平了，拿了不到两分钟，亏21025U，回报率负12.73%。这不是看错方向那么简单，这是开了高杠杆之后，发现自己站在了流动性的反面。 同一时间，他的BTC永续30倍全仓空，均价80798.6，平在80739.7，只赚5159U，回报率正1.91%。ZEC永续5倍单独空，均价1466.89，持2000张，落袋7451U。你看，同样是高倍，ETH上他秒认错，BTC和ZEC上他拿得住。说明什么？不是他忽然变保守，而是他知道哪里的拥挤度更高、哪里更容易被反向扫。 马吉大哥那边更像另一种剧本。BTC 40倍空持续有利润，ETH 25倍多却在扛、在退，空头仓位大、账户压力也大。两个人一个偏多一个偏空，但都在用高倍表达，这本身就是市场进入分歧期的信号。趋势没坏，但赚钱方式从"拿住"变成了"抢节奏"。 这里市场的关键变化是：高倍仓位💰 Blur + Blast: Financing, Token Allocation, and Billions in On-Book Wealth—What Does It Really Mean?
The teams behind Blur and Blast have previously created impressive numbers.
📊 First stop: Blur ($BLUR)
- 💵 Approximately $11 million raised
- 🪙 Core contributors and advisors received 30.2% of $BLUR token allocation
- 🚀 At the token's all-time high price of $5.02, this portion of tokens has an on-book value of about $4.54 billion
📊 Second stop: Blast ($BLAST)
- 💵 Raised approximately $20 million again
- 🪙 Core contributors received about 25.48 billion $BLAST tokens
- 🚀 At the all-time high price of $0.029, this portion of tokens has an on-book value of about $744 million
- 💰 The network's cumulative revenue is reportedly about $20.8 million
If you add the financing amounts and Blast's network revenue, the total is about $51.8 million; while the teams' token allocations for both projects, calculated at their respective all-time highs, have a combined on-book peak value exceeding $5.2 billion.
⚠️ But here is a key distinction: on-book value does not equal actual cash-out proceeds.
Multiplying the all-time high price by the number of tokens can only estimate the theoretical peak market value.THE LEVERAGE CROWD HAS A SMALL EXIT DOOR. 🚪
An Oct. 13 Hyperliquid snapshot shows $1.66B in $HYPE perpetual open interest against $611M in 24h turnover—a 2.72 ratio.
For $BTC on the same venue? Just 1.03.
HYPE was down 5.9% in that snapshot.
The ratio doesn’t measure order-book liquidity or predict liquidations. It reveals how large outstanding exposure is relative to trading activity.
US CPI arrives Oct. 14.
#HYPE #OpenInterest #DailyOrbit The harshest part of this wave isn't the rise, but the sudden reversal after a surge—on October 8, Starknet announced "quantum resistance, planning to migrate to L1," and $STRK surged 40% in one day, but the words "considering" mean the actual implementation is still scheduled for 2027.
I chose to short at 0.09847, the logic is simple: sentiment has fully priced in expectations, but the ecosystem TVL is still halved from its peak, daily revenue is only a few thousand dollars, the story can't support the price.
Sure enough, on October 13 the market cooled down, BTC dropped 3% dragging altcoins down, STRK gave back 28% in one day, the mark price fell to 0.08616, and my 50x position gained 625% floating profit.
Looking ahead, let's see if 0.086 can hold; on October 15 there will be unlocking selling pressure, so don't be greedy with short-term shorts, taking profits in batches is safer. $BTC $ETH 【ETH ETF Outflows for 10 Consecutive Days, $577 Million Hits Record】
The most noteworthy today is that the Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, with nearly $576.9 million accumulated over the past 5 days, marking the largest 5-day outflow since January this year. During the same period, BTC ETFs also experienced a weekly outflow of $681.1 million.
1. What has changed with ETH? BlackRock's ETHA saw a weekly net outflow of $477 million, becoming the main source of withdrawals, as institutions systematically reduce their ETH allocations.
2. Why is this significant? In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $814 million, with long positions accounting for $686 million, indicating a concentrated cleanup of long leverage. ETFs are withdrawing, leverage is bursting, yet ETH's price has not collapsed—this "double kill without a drop" divergence suggests the market is repricing.
3. Which observation is currently more supported? It leans towards an "institution-led deleveraging phase." After funds leave ETH ETFs, some flow into XRP and other assets with higher regulatory certainty, rather than a complete exit from the crypto market.
Next, watch for when ETH ETF outflows turn positive in a single day—that will be the first signal of a shift in institutional sentiment. $ETH Stablecoins decreased by $856 million, does this mean funds are leaving the crypto space?
Seeing the decline in stablecoin market cap, the market easily jumps to the conclusion of capital flight.
But this inference requires more evidence.
Lookonchain's statistics from October 5 to 11 show three notable changes in on-chain activity:
① Total stablecoin market cap decreased by $855.94 million.
② DEX spot trading volume dropped by 19.34% week-over-week.
③ DEX perpetual contract trading volume, however, increased by 8.20%.
I also cross-referenced DefiLlama data, where weekly changes in spot and perpetual contracts also show opposite directions, but due to different statistical scopes, the declines cannot be directly compared.
There are two often overlooked issues here.
First, a decline in stablecoin market cap does not equal the same amount of funds leaving the crypto market. Redemptions, cross-chain supply changes, and other factors need to be separately confirmed.
Second, an increase in perpetual contract trading volume does not necessarily mean bulls or bears dominate.
My interpretation is: what can be confirmed now is that market trading activity is diverging, not that funds have fully withdrawn.
If stablecoins continue to shrink, spot trading remains sluggish, and perpetual contract open interest increases, then further examination of leverage risk accumulation is needed.
Conversely, if spot activity rebounds and stablecoin supply recovers, this divergence may just be a short-term adjustment.
Market direction requires evidence, not conclusions based on a single number.
$BTC $ETH #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
$TSM Revenue hit a new high, with the headline itself saying "To Be Revealed."
▪️ September revenue was 511.86 billion TWD, up 54.6% year-over-year, down 0.6% month-over-month
▪️ Q3 gross margin guidance is 65%–67%, lower than the actual 67.7% in Q2
▪️ The upper and lower bounds of the revenue guidance range have been revised upward for two consecutive quarters
▪️ Gross margin level in the same period last year was about 8 percentage points lower than now
▪️ The only missing part of this report is the gap between the earnings release date and the revenue data
The disagreement is not about whether it sold well, but that "selling more" and "earning more per unit sold" are separated this time.
September revenue rose more than 50% year-over-year but was negative month-over-month — indicating the growth pace is slowing rather than accelerating. More importantly, the gross margin guidance falls between 65%–67%, which is 0.7 to 2.7 percentage points lower than Q2 actual: capacity ramp-up and depreciation front-loading of advanced processes will first show up on the profit side. Revenue is the past, gross margin is its own judgment, and the real numbers have to wait for the earnings report.
The direction is to wait and see — the earnings gross margin needs to hit the upper end of the guidance to be solid; if it falls below 65%, this volume-price divergence continues.$BTC has held its ground, but the money hasn't come back yet
$BTC was around $83,100 last night, basically flat over 24h, $ETH at $2,493 is still grinding down, down 1.9% in 24h. The daytime rebound held, but we need to see what is supporting it: in the first week of October, ETFs saw a total outflow of over $1.2 billion, $ETH funds have been outflowing for 8 consecutive days, money is flowing out. The support comes from spot buying and short covering absorbing selling pressure, not new money entering the market.
Wintermute said something very accurate today: the crypto market relies on incremental funds to survive, and with funds rotating, a six-week counter-trend rebound is hard to sustain. Tomorrow is CPI, inflation expectations are around 3.6%, higher than last month's 3.4%. If it exceeds expectations, the 10-year US Treasury yield will push higher, and tonight's "hold" will just be a pause.
Watch two signals: if $BTC falls below $82,000, it means support is exhausted; if $ETH can't get back above $2,500, the market can't stand on its own.The party stopped last week. After three straight weeks of inflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681 million in net outflows from October 5 to 9, the largest weekly exit since June. On October 13, Bitcoin briefly slipped under $81,000 before clawing back above $83,000, and the pressure came directly from the same buyers who pushed it up. On-chain data shows Bitcoin is now trading right at the average cost basis of ETF holders around $83,700. When price returns to entry, many investors sell. ThOne thing about ZEC that really annoys me is that when it rises, everyone says privacy is the future, but when it falls, it suddenly becomes an "obsolete relic that no one uses."
The speed of this flip-flop is honestly impressive.
But recently, I've been thinking about a more realistic question: if one day Zcash's privacy features become exceptionally good, will the coin price definitely rise?
Not necessarily.
ZEC has a fixed supply cap, and miner rewards will gradually decrease, which indeed provides it with a long-term supply framework. But an increase in privacy transaction usage doesn't mean all users will hold the coin long-term.
Some might just buy $ZEC temporarily, complete the transfer, and then sell immediately. The more convenient the wallet experience, the faster the capital turnover might even be.
So now, I’m not very fond of the saying "privacy demand explodes, ZEC will inevitably skyrocket." Whether demand can translate into sustained buying pressure still has many factors to verify.
Of course, I hope more and more people use Zcash, and I hope the coins I follow will rise. But to really judge the market, I still look at capital flow, circulating supply, and actual usage.
Relying solely on faith, the market might not necessarily buy it.
For the short term, I’ll wait and see. When both demand and buying pressure can show some real substance, then I’ll consider increasing my position. The US September CPI is coming out tomorrow night, and Federal Reserve officials and the market are in a heated debate.
Cleveland Fed President Harker said yesterday that inflationary pressures have "widely spread," not just in energy—tariffs are pushing up corporate costs, and AI data center construction is also competing for electricity and components. She leans toward "small, more frequent" rate hikes.
But the market is not buying it at all. CME data shows a 79.5% probability of holding rates steady in October, with only 20.5% betting on a hike. More importantly, the probability of a rate hike in December is as high as 70.3%—the market's meaning is: pause in October, then decide in December.
The core disagreement centers on tomorrow night's CPI. Institutions expect the overall year-on-year rate to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%, with diesel and transportation costs still transmitting after oil prices surged past $100. But the core CPI month-on-month may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%.
If the core really drops to 0.2%, the market will reinforce the expectation of "pause in October, then decide in December"; if it remains at 0.3% or even higher, the probability of an October hike will climb back above 20%.
As for $BTC, the price is stuck between 82,000 and 83,000, with ETF funds seeing a net outflow of $680 million in the past week, so there is no big capital support in the short term. The core CPI figure tomorrow night will directly determine whether $BTC continues to consolidate or dips further. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 听着挺顺，但市场不按号码牌发钱。$BTC $ETH $ZEC 现在大饼市占率回到约60%，同期169个活跃币种里，有158个在这轮回调里跌得比它更深。很多人看到占比上去，就以为资金都在买大饼。其实两边一起跌，山寨跌得更狠，占比照样能被推上去。 山寨最磨人的地方就在这：跌的时候特别积极，反弹的时候突然开始讲长期主义。 如果一个币跌得比大饼猛，反弹又比大饼弱，那“它已经跌很多了”到底是机会，还是舍不得认账，得先看它对大饼的汇率。同样一段时间，拿着它换到的大饼越来越少，就说明波动扛了，资产强度没跟上。 真要等轮动，至少得看到它持续跑赢大饼，反弹有量，回落有人接。单日一根针说明不了什么。 山寨当然还有机会，但不是每个币都有。“它还没涨”和“它值得涨”，中间差得挺远。 #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% ZEC (Zcash) Downtrend Analysis
1. Market Rotation and Sector Rotation (Fundamental Factors)
ZEC belongs to the privacy narrative coins, which experienced a large surge earlier driven by privacy coin hype. When market hotspots shift to AI, Layer2, and new public chains, incremental funds withdraw from old narrative sectors.
When BTC and ETH experience volatility and pullbacks, high-elasticity coins like ZEC fall significantly more than mainstream coins; macroscopically, repeated interest rate cut expectations reduce risk appetite, and funds prioritize taking profits from heavily appreciated narrative coins.
2. Concentrated Profit Taking (Core Spot Selling Pressure)
ZEC had a huge short-term gain earlier, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking chips. After the price surged, early whales, institutions, and treasury positions took profits in batches, transferring a large number of tokens from cold wallets to exchanges, creating spot selling pressure.
This round of rally was largely narrative-driven, not sustained by continuous new inflows, and after the positive news was realized, buying quickly dried up.
3. Contract Leverage Liquidations Accelerate the Decline
A large number of long positions accumulated during the uptrend; after breaking key technical support levels, a chain reaction of long liquidations was triggered, and forced selling further pushed prices down, creating a negative feedback loop.
ZEC’s depth and liquidity are weaker than BTC/ETH, so even relatively small sell orders can cause large pullbacks. During the decline, funding rates turned negative, the contract market was dominated by shorts, intensifying market pressure.
#ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 BTC and ETH just staged a sudden rebound, triggering the stop-losses on my heavily sized short positions. I ended up losing dozens of dollars, which is definitely frustrating. But one thing remains unchanged: I’m still cautious about the market and leaning bearish for now. If you’re also trading, there’s no need to rush into a position. Waiting for the upcoming CPI report before making a decision may be the smarter move. Why am I still bearish? First, the Fed’s hawkish stance continues to put pr#俄美推进柴油供应合作，俄乌能源停火仍存分歧
The Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire increasingly looks like a one-sided monologue.
On October 11, Trump announced that both sides had reached an energy ceasefire, but Ukraine said Russia was still attacking its energy facilities. On October 12, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak confirmed that Russian and American energy departments and companies are negotiating diesel supply, and Russia has partially lifted diesel export restrictions. According to media reports, the U.S. also warned Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries, or it might affect weapons and intelligence support to Ukraine.
The logic of the whole matter is clear. The U.S. wants diesel supply, Russia wants export channels, and both sides get what they need. As for Ukraine, in this energy ceasefire matter, it seems more like a bargaining chip on the table. So after a few days of ceasefire calls, the agreement hasn't been implemented, and attacks continue.
For the market, the focus is very practical. Diesel supply arrangements are still progressing, but the energy ceasefire hasn't materialized. Oil prices are slightly weak in the short term; Brent fell 1.03% today. But a bigger variable is that the U.S. needs Russian diesel to fill the gap, indicating that global refined oil supply is already so tight that there is no room to choose suppliers.
For BTC, this is a marginal short-term positive. Oil price decline can ease inflation expectations, reducing the urgency of Federal Reserve rate hikes a bit. But don't celebrate too early; as long as the energy ceasefire doesn't become a written agreement, and Middle East shipping risks remain unresolved, oil prices could bounce back at any time. $CL $BZ $USO Brian Foster worked at Coinbase for seven years, managed the BlackRock partnership, and now has moved to Morpho for marketing.
I just chased an RWA concept last week, saw the news was strong and jumped in, but ended up losing half in two days.
The lesson is: no matter how impressive the executive's resume is, it has zero short-term relation to the coin price.
Morpho's move, frankly, is trying to sell on-chain credit to traditional institutions, which is the right direction.
But short-term traders, don't get excited; personnel appointments are not catalysts, whether funds follow is what matters.
My prediction: this news will at most sustain sentiment for one day, after that we have to see if there is real change in on-chain deposit data.
If no change, just pretend it never happened.
#代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？
#$BTC ETC at $8.15, are you still waiting for it to rebound?
From 10.35 down to 7.78, the halving has landed, the upgrade is still far off, and tomorrow's CPI hangs overhead—Is this wave the final shakeout, or the slow death of an old chain?
Let's look at the surface first: it dropped, but halving happened, Olympia expectations remain.
Down 9% in the past week, up 6% in the past month, rebounded from 7.2 in mid-September to 10.35 then retraced back to 8.15. Market cap 1.3 billion, mid-tier altcoin, not a mainline.
The candlesticks tell you: price stuck in the 8.00-8.36 decision zone, daily RSI 42, 4-hour RSI 38, MACD below zero line, broke below 7-day and 30-day moving averages, selling pressure volume increased—all indicators shout one thing: short-term bearish, don’t rush to bottom-fish.
But take another look at the weekly chart.
At the end of September, the "Fifthening" halving was just completed, block rewards dropped another 20% to 1.6384 ETC.
Cap at 210.7 million, circulating 155-159 million.
Supply is contracting, the story is brewing. This is the most divisive point.
First: halving has landed, but the market didn’t even blink.
Entered a new halving cycle at the end of September, block rewards down 20% again.
Sounds like great news, right?
But look at the market—price fell from 10.35 all the way down to 7.78, halving didn’t lift the price.
Why?
Because halving is an expectation, already priced in.
The market buys "halving will happen in the future," not "halving has already happened."
Good news landing turns bad news, this is the classic crypto script, haven’t you memorized it yet?
Second: Olympia upgrade is the only decent catalyst this year.
Olympia aims for late 2026: EIP-1559-like dynamic fees, about 80% of base fees go to on-chain treasury, DAO manages spending.
In plain terms:
ETC wants to transform from "old PoW with no code changes" to "PoW Ethereum with sustainable development funding."
Sounds exciting, right?
But before landing, it’s just expectation, not a current price driver.
Third: technicals are on resistance, not support—CPI tomorrow is a looming threat.
Current 8.15 is right on the first resistance.
Resistance at 8.30-8.36, must reclaim to confirm a bottom.
Support at 8.00 (psychological level) → 7.78-7.94 (Oct 8 low) → 7.50 → 7.06.
Daily chart looks more like a pullback in a downtrend channel, no higher lows yet.
Bollinger Bands near lower band, short-term has room for a bounce, but bounce ≠ reversal.
What about macro?
BTC once dropped below 82,000, spot BTC ETF saw net outflow of 680 million last week, ETH ETF outflows for multiple days, Korean stocks plunged on AI/chip concerns.
Tomorrow (Oct 14) US CPI is the watershed.
If hot, altcoins get hit first; if cool, there’s a repair window.
ETC, a low liquidity asset, falls faster than BTC when macro tightens, and its rebounds are more fake.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On the bullish side:
Halving landed, supply contracting
Olympia upgrade expectations, catalyst in 2026
September’s fake Core-Geth event passed, miners switched back to safe versions
Perpetual funding rates slightly negative, open interest falls with price, longs reducing positions, not shorts aggressively opening
Bollinger Bands near lower band, short-term bounce possible
On the bearish side:
Daily bearish alignment, EMA resistance, MACD below zero
Halving good news landed but no price pump, market not buying it
Olympia too far away, landing in 2026
No ETF money story, volume driven by contracts and sentiment rotation
Tomorrow’s CPI, macro risk assets under pressure
Breaking 8.00 easily triggers another round of long liquidation
Trading strategy
Short-term long (only on rebounds):
Aggressive: if 8.00-8.05 holds and 1-hour closes above 8.20, light position, targets 8.36/8.55, stop loss 7.92.
Conservative: wait for daily close above 8.36, enter on pullback without break, targets 8.66, 9.00, stop loss below 8.10.
Oversold rebound: if it drops to 7.78-7.90 with lower shadow and volume contraction, can do one trade, stop loss 7.65, target first 8.15-8.30. This is bottom-fishing, not a trend trade.
Short-term short:
If 8.30-8.55 rally fails and falls back below 8.15, or volume breaks below 8.00, short with target 7.80, extended 7.50.
Stop loss placed 0.15-0.20 above entry candle high, don’t hold past 8.66.
Mid-term:
Only two cases worth holding:
Olympia testnet/mainnet schedule confirmed, and price retakes 9.20;
Post-CPI risk appetite returns, ETC follows ETH recovery.
Before that, it’s a 7.80-9.20 range ticket.
Don’t hold with “value coin” mindset before breaking 10.35.
Invalidation:
Daily close below 7.70 breaks lower range, look at 7.50/7.06, all long logic invalid.
Daily close above 8.66 invalidates bearish logic, look to 9.00.
ETC now is like the 2016 fork—
Everyone shouts "Code is Law," but ten years later, it’s still telling the same story.
Halving landed, upgrade in 2026, no ETF, developers left.
You think you’re bottom-fishing ETC, but you’re actually renewing faith from 2016.
Old chains don’t die, they just slowly wither. But your margin won’t wait for its rebound day.
The day it breaks 8.36—
It’s either the start of a rebound or another fakeout.
$BTC $ETH $ETC This Yi Lihua, do any of you brothers follow him?
Do you think the BTC resistance and support levels he describes in the article are reliable?
Let me comment one by one:
First question: The 400-day moving average of BTC is at 81,000, so it can get support and rebound here.
Comment: What the heck is a 400-day moving average? Twice the 200-day? It's the first time I've heard of a 400-day moving average. Did he have to make up a BTC 400-day moving average just to show off his sharp insight?
Second question: The strong resistance level of BTC is at 86,500, so every time it reaches here, it pulls back.
Comment: Does it pull back because there is resistance at 86,500? Isn't it due to recent macro issues like the crazy rise in oil prices, the repeated ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine over oil and gas, and the unstable situation between Yemen and Saudi Arabia? It's just that there was no special positive catalyst to push a one-time rebound above 90,000. It just so happens that BTC encountered resistance at 86,500.
When all these coincidences come together, they are described as a mechanical executable operation method. This kind of thinking is extremely naive.#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
Looking at this data, don’t rush to shout "institutions have fled" yet.
$BTC and $ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, indicating that allocation in regulated channels is cooling down, especially ETH which has seen eight consecutive days of withdrawals, looking more like a "real reduction" than BTC.
But I prefer to call it: macro risk aversion + profit-taking, not a collective long-term institutional exit.
When US Treasury yields, the dollar, and geopolitical risks rise, big money in ETFs first cuts beta; it’s normal for BTC and ETH to be trimmed together.
The difference is: BTC outflows are in pulses, ETH outflows are trending. So the phrase "institutional demand weakening" fits ETH more, while for BTC it’s more of a short-term retreat.
Next, watch the next three days: whether outflows spread to the entire IBIT/FBTC/ARKB camp or remain concentrated in certain products; whether BTC can hold above 84k;
and whether funds return after CPI and Federal Reserve statements. If outflows continue, that’s a demand inflection point; if they stop falling and rebound, it’s just October deleveraging.
$SNDK
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 There are too many short positions on $BAT. Every time the whales pump it up, it slowly slides down. Pumping a few points at a time can't trigger the short positions, and instead, the shorts keep adding to their positions. How long can this coin keep going just relying on the whales to pump it?Unichain has been "sent away," what remains of the $UNI story?
On October 29, Uniswap Labs handed over its own child Unichain to Optimism. This self-owned L2, which was only set to launch in 2025, survived just over a year before being hastily transferred. The announcement was understated, but the strategic contraction is unmistakableUniswap is refocusing on its core business.
For UNI holders, this is not good news.
The daily trading volume of the Uniswap main protocol has always been strong,#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening? The leader has something to say
BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw outflows last week, totaling $1.221 billion. BTC had a net outflow of $679 million, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows. ETH had a net outflow of $542 million, marking the largest single-week outflow since January and nine consecutive trading days of outflows.
Is institutional demand weakening? My judgment is that this is a phase of portfolio adjustment, not a trend of withdrawal. Before the CPI release, funds are hedging, which is expected. Plus, with the 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.7% and short-term debt yields high enough, some funds are temporarily moving into fixed income, which is normal.
But ETH is weaker than BTC. BitMine already holds 6.03 million ETH, close to 5% of the total supply, and management says they have basically bought enough. The largest ETH treasury buyer has stopped, so ETH has lost key support. That's why ETH is falling harder than BTC and its rebound is weaker than BTC's.
Today the market is recovering, BTC is up 2.09%, ETH up 2.94%. ETF fund flows and short-term prices are diverging; some are selling, some are buying. The market is waiting for the CPI to set the direction.
I still hold my BTC long at 82,800, stop loss at 81,500, target at 86,000. ETF outflows are a slow variable and do not affect the short-term rebound rhythm. I will reduce positions at the target and not cling to the fight. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I won't touch ETH for now, waiting for ETF funds to flow back. No chasing highs or panic selling, just set stop losses properly. The most noteworthy data today is that BTC's total network contract open interest sharply dropped by 6.05% within 24 hours, falling to $54.091 billion. Meanwhile, the price rebounded above 83,000, making the signal of a reduction-driven rebound worth a closer look.
1. What changed? This morning, BTC briefly fell below 81,000, with over $770 million in leveraged positions liquidated within 24 hours, of which 88.9% were long positions. The price then made a V-shaped recovery, but the open interest did not rise correspondingly.
2. Why is this significant? This rebound accompanied by a decline in open interest indicates that the rally was not driven by new long entries but rather by short covering and forced liquidations. BTC funding rates have turned negative, meaning shorts are now paying to hold positions.
3. Which interpretation is currently more supported? It leans more towards a "technical correction after leverage clearing" rather than a trend reversal. Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, showing institutions are still systematically reducing positions.
Next, watch the previous high at 83,800: a volume-backed hold above this level would validate the rebound; if pressure returns, the nature of this reduction-driven rebound will be confirmed. The direction may be revealed earlier than most expect. $BTC #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BTC Dot plot says 4.1%, the speaker says more hikes are needed.
▪️ Median of September dot plot 3.8% → 4.1%, unanimous 12-0 vote to raise rates by 25bp
▪️ SEP pushes return to 2% to 2029, core PCE revised up to 3.4%
▪️ CPI announced on 10/14 at 20:30, August reading CPI 3.4%, core month-on-month 0.3%
▪️ CME shows 78.4% probability of no rate hike at 10/27–28 meeting
▪️ Concurrently 10Y at 5.36%, 30Y at 5.73%, highest since 2002
The disagreement is not about how tough the speaker is, but that the "median of the dot plot" and the "tone of the speaker" are not the same thing.
The dot plot is the composite result of 19 voters, reflecting the committee's view on year-end rates; the speech is an individual statement, which can be interpreted as tougher. What is truly priced in is the former—CME's 78.4% no hike indicates the market treats the rate meeting as an uncertain variable. CPI is the only number not yet factored into this pricing.
Direction is to wait and see — if CPI is below expectations, bets on rate hikes will fade; if above expectations, the long end will move up another notch. Costs dropped by 82%, but I’m actually panicking
Researchers have reduced the estimated computational cost of dedicated quantum-secure Bitcoin transactions by 82%, down to $59.
The potential risk exposure is huge.
According to a Glassnode study, about 6.04 million bitcoins (30.2% of the then-issued Bitcoin supply) have public keys visible on-chain.
In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum attacker could derive private keys from exposed public keys and take control of the associated cryptocurrency.
My thought is: what used to seem impossible is now being seriously pursued.
What’s more troublesome is something else.
Every time you move your coins, it’s like hanging your house keys online.
About one-third of all bitcoins worldwide are already in this state.
And the new solution only protects those that haven’t been exposed yet.
So the dividing line isn’t about cost, it’s about whether you acted early.
The good news is, changing to a new address can be done today, almost for free.
The bad news is, the attack has no deadline, but the risk is always present.
Don’t mistake the absence of incidents for safety; quantum security doesn’t mean it’s impenetrable.
It means it hasn’t been broken yet.
Those who act early can sleep well.
$59, one step closer than what I wrote before.BTC staged a classic "short squeeze counterattack" in the past hour. It briefly dropped below $81,000 in the morning, causing nearly 170,000 liquidations, but then the price strongly rebounded to around $83,800.
The core driver of this rebound was short covering, not new capital inflows. In the past 4 hours of liquidations, short positions accounted for over 90%. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of as much as $681 million in a single week, with institutions reducing positions during the rebound.
In the short term, watch the resistance at the previous high of $83,800; if it fails to break out with volume, it will likely retest support at $83,000. The real decisive factor will be tomorrow night's CPI data—if inflation exceeds expectations, this rebound may be just a flash in the pan. $BTC $BTC BTC short-term 1-hour and 4-hour short positions have more liquidations, indicating this rapid rebound primarily swept out the shorts. Looking at the 24-hour timeframe, long position liquidations reached 110 million, significantly higher than the 53.119 million in short liquidations.
In simple terms: short-term rally harvested shorts, but over the full-day larger cycle, longs are still being heavily liquidated. The market oscillates back and forth, shaking out positions, with longs and shorts being liquidated in turn. This kind of market easily triggers stop losses on both sides, so positions must be kept light. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% 【Under negative ETH funding rate, who is placing the 2523 buy order to support the bottom?】
Just after the US stock market opened, an abnormal signal appeared in the ETH order book.
What has changed with ETH? The funding rate is negative (-0.00064%), shorts are paying to hold positions, but buy orders account for 58% of the order book, with a large 250 ETH order placed at 2523.83.
Why is this worth attention? Over the past 10 days, ETH spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, indicating institutional withdrawal; however, the futures order book shows someone absorbing at the lower level. These two forces are moving in opposite directions.
Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more towards "passive defense under crowded shorts" rather than active bullishness. Negative funding rate means short positions are concentrated, and if the price does not fall, there is a possibility of a short squeeze.
Next, watch two signals: whether 2520 (MA20) can hold, and whether ETF outflows converge. If it doesn't hold, the support order may just be a buffer; if it holds, the story is just beginning. $ETH Write an analysis post about the field I am most skilled in.
I have spent 1000 days and nights studying various macro data and geopolitics of different countries.
First, regarding the screenshot, tomorrow is the release day of the 5-star data CPI, which will be published at 8:30 PM.
The most noteworthy points are the annual rate and the Fed's favorite core CPI monthly rate month-over-month.
Currently, the expected data for the annual rate is not optimistic, while the core monthly rate month-over-month is still acceptable; last month was 0.3%, and now the expectation is 0.2%.
If one is good and the other is bad, they can offset each other. If both are bad, then we need to focus on analyzing the current positions and status of BTC and ETH in the market.
First: If both data points are good,
BTC and ETH will strongly break through their respective resistance levels at 83850 and 2566, these two key positions.
Second: If one is good and the other is bad, regardless of whether the annual rate or the monthly rate is good, overall, as long as ETH is around 2535 at the time of release with one good and one bad data point, it will most likely move sideways downward. Subsequently, it will continue to oscillate within a range.
Third: If both data points are bad,
If at the time of release BTC is above 83000, a sharp drop is inevitable. Altcoins will suffer even more.
If BTC and ETH tonight, for unknown reasons, fall below 81000 and 2430 respectively, then with bad data, the rise or fall tomorrow is uncertain.
Only by breaking below their respective lows to find a bottom, or by the negative news being fully priced in, will there be an open-ended positive outcome.