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From the perspective of the major market trend, BTC has a clear support level at 72-75k, a weak support level at 76k, and a support level at 79-82k.
72-74k is a level where the major market trend has repeatedly fallen to in the past, serving as a point for declines or rallies.
76k is a position that the market has tested multiple times during this rally, so the buying pressure here is strong.
The 79-82k range has also been tested many times historically.
More specifically, the top of this rally is at 87k. If it falls to the following three levels, the respective declines are:
- 72-74k: a drop to 72k represents an 18% decline, and a drop to 74k represents a 15% decline
- 76k: a decline of 13%
- 79-82k: a drop to 79k represents a 9.5% decline, and a drop to 82k represents a 6% decline
Learning from history, let's look at the decline patterns from previous bull market starts:
$BTC $ETH $SOON Kids, stop shorting. The long-short ratio of top accounts is 0.56, but the net long-short ratio of top accounts is 1.12, indicating that a small number of top accounts hold the majority of the chips. Meanwhile, retail investors' long-short ratio is 0.4. Do you think this is fuel for a rise? The old whales will only dump when the retail long-short ratio rises; otherwise, with no one to take the other side, the price will keep going up.SNDK 4x full position long, floating loss 10.67%, maintenance margin rate only 2.5%, very little room, a slight further drop could cause problems, cannot hold on stubbornly.
HYPE 4x full position long, lost 35.61%, floating loss amount is large, although the margin rate looks higher than SNDK, if the market continues to decline, losses will expand further.
Both are full position modes, the downside of full position is no buffer, it is recommended to consider reducing positions or setting stop losses, don’t get trapped deeper.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $FIL VS$AR
FIL has been tugging back and forth around $1, is it bottoming out or a bull trap?
AR has been strengthening steadily, with storage sector funds clearly clustering around AR.
The supply reduction on October 15 is an important milestone, but the positive impact has already been partially priced in; supply contraction does not necessarily mean a guaranteed price increase and still requires real demand support.
FIL has a heavy historical trapped position, making it difficult in the short term to catch up with AR's gains, so be mentally prepared for a prolonged bottoming process.
1.01 is FIL's short-term lifeline; holding this level still qualifies for speculative expectations; once broken, the bottoming logic fails.
There are two completely different stories in this sector: AR is driven by sentiment speculation, while FIL endures on fundamentals. Don't torture your holdings by comparing them to others' gains.
AR is a sentiment-driven cluster with a small market cap, and its market performance heavily depends on narrative heat; FIL is a heavy-asset storage network with a large market cap and heavy selling pressure, relying on protocol upgrades and real business implementation.PHA rose about 23%, but OKX currently only has spot trading, with no corresponding perpetual contracts available for cross-verification of funding rates and open interest.
As of 17:07 Beijing time, OKX spot price is about $0.08257, with a 24-hour high of $0.08271 and a low of $0.06358. The current price is only about 0.2% below the high, with a daily amplitude of about 28.6%, a trading volume of approximately $1.58 million, and an order book spread of about 0.19%.
Another notable conflict is that the trading volume in the past 24 hours is only about 1.2 times the median of the previous seven full 24-hour periods, while the price acceleration is significantly faster than the volume expansion. The current price is already about 16% above the previous 24-hour high of $0.0711.
My judgment is that the price breakout has occurred, but the volume confirmation is not yet sufficient. The easiest misjudgment is to assume no crowding just because there is no negative funding rate; OKX lacks corresponding perpetual contracts and thus lacks open interest and funding rate data, which itself does not prove that the chasing buying is not crowded.
Next, watch $0.08 and $0.0711. If the price holds above $0.08 and trading volume continues to expand, the breakout quality will improve; if it falls back below $0.0711, this rally is more likely a high-volatility pullback rather than a stable gear shift. $PHA PHA 的项目方向是「TEE 可信执行环境 + 隐私计算 + 机密 AI 推理」 一、有技术叙事，但不是新蓝筹 核心：用 CPU TEE（Intel SGX/TDX）跑机密计算、机密智能合约、AI Agent 可验证推理。 新叙事：Confidential AI——企业/AI 应用在不暴露数据的前提下跑模型，2026 年接了 DeepSeek、Qwen 等模型，有一定真实调用量。 竞品：Oasis(ROSE)、Secret、iExec(RLC)、Akash、Render，以及 AWS/Azure/GCP 的机密计算服务。 团队有持续开发，也有 SOC 2 / HIPAA 之类合规动作，不是纯空气币。 二、代币 PHA 的问题更关键 总量 10 亿，流通已很高（8 亿+），历史高点约 1.39 美元，现在大概在 0.05–0.09 美元区间大幅波动，距 ATH 回撤 90%+。 2026 年 9 月因为「AI + 机密计算」叙事一度暴涨，但 RSI 极超买，属于叙事驱动 + 小市值 alt 波动，不是基本面已经兑现。 最大隐患：企业用 Phala Cloud 不代表 PHA 持有者赚钱。BTC long position with 50x leverage fully loaded, currently showing a very nice floating profit, but the maintenance margin rate is only 1%, extremely risky! If the price drops even slightly, it will directly trigger a forced liquidation, and the profit will instantly go to zero. Do not stubbornly hold on.
SKHY long position with 7x leverage fully loaded, currently floating at nearly 19% loss, position is in full load mode, also need to watch out for risks from further declines.
Overall, the biggest hidden risk is this BTC 50x fully loaded position; profitable trades fear a full retracement the most, so prioritize reducing position or moving stop loss to secure most of the profit.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.635, top positions long-short ratio is 0.763; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.443; price increased by 0.23%, position amount changed by +0.49%.
$PEPE: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.088, top positions long-short ratio is 0.771; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.608; price increased by 0.28%, position amount changed by +0.53%.
$XRP: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.208, top positions long-short ratio is 0.872; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.502; price increased by 0.43%, position amount changed by +1.68%.
DOGE, PEPE, XRP: The side with the majority of account numbers is opposite to the side with the majority of positions; there is a divergence between account structure and position distribution; the overall market account structure is biased towards long positions, which also differs from the bias in top positions.$CT is a coin I've been following recently, Concrete, which will be listed for spot trading on OKX at 18:00 tonight.
It's not some shady project that tricks people with charts; it focuses on institutional-grade on-chain asset management, making decentralized finance more user-friendly, efficient, and transparent. The core is an automated vault with risk management that helps institutional funds run yield strategies on-chain.
The institutional backing is very strong. Polychain leads the investment, with VanEck, BitGo, YZi Labs, and Gate Ventures all involved. VanEck is a traditional asset manager known for gold and Bitcoin ETFs, and BitGo is a leading institutional custodian. The fact that these players are all betting on a DeFi protocol speaks volumes.
The data also shows real business activity. The platform's deposit scale exceeds $1.2 billion, cumulative trading volume exceeds $23 billion, there are over 54,000 depositors, and more than 1.2 million signature-verified wallets. CT has a fixed total supply of 1 billion tokens, no inflation; the ecosystem holds 35%, the foundation 15%, the team 22%, and investors 28%. The official statement clearly says there are currently no claims or pre-sale plans, and airdrop details have not been announced yet.
However, there is one issue: liquidity is unstable right after listing, so don't rush to buy as soon as it opens. If you want to play, wait until the market stabilizes and the tokens have circulated for a couple of days. But CT as a target is worth putting on the watchlist. The institutional-grade DeFi infrastructure sector is where real growth is happening in this cycle. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 @OKX星球 HYPE's chart looks sleepy, but those in the know understand that it's precisely at times like this that you need to keep a close watch.
On the afternoon of September 30th, the price was stuck at 86.2, fluctuating less than 0.1% all day, almost as if it didn't move. On the one-hour chart, three moving averages are squeezed around 86, almost tangled together. The price climbed back from 84.8, grinding along the moving averages for several candlesticks, just poking out then retreating again, with neither side giving in. The volume is even clearer: each bar is shorter than the last—the momentum from the previous drop has dissipated, and no one is leading an upward push.
Short-term and long-term are now two separate accounts: down over 7 points in 7 days, short-term funds are withdrawing; but still up nearly 5 points over 30 days, with unrealized gains of 31.83% and 140.99% over 90 and 180 days respectively, so long-term holders haven't left at all.
On the news front, Hyperliquid co-founder Jeff Yan mentioned that private market opportunities with restricted access are significant. The statement was made, but the market didn't respond—daily trading volume was 176 million USDT, with no surge.
Next, all eyes are on $HYPE at the 86 level. Only if it breaks above 87.5 will the rebound take shape; if it falls below 84.8, then it's back to enduring. Until volume picks up, watching the show is better than taking action.Is SHIB about to change trend? Keep an eye on this number! 🚨
SHIB is currently squeezed between 0.00000550 and the downtrend line, so tight it's about to explode, the direction will be chosen soon! 💥 Current price 0.00000589, up 3% in 24h, market cap 3.39 billion. Support at 0.00000550 has held multiple times; if broken, watch 0.00000564 and 0.00000520. Resistance at 0.00000613; only after breaking this will we look at 0.00000620 and 0.00000670. A real breakout of the trend line targets 0.00000720-0.00000730, about 26% upside. 🚀
But don’t get too excited yet: RSI is 61, stochastic indicator divergence, MACD still bearish; historically, such crossovers often lead to an 8%-15% pullback. On-chain bulls and bears are fighting: exchange reserves near 88 trillion, 24h net inflow 75 billion, heavy selling pressure; but holding addresses surged to 1.69 million, 74 billion tokens withdrawn from exchanges, which counts as bullish. 🔥
Macro factors are also holding back: US Treasury yields are high, BTC stuck at 84,000, SHIB struggles to fly independently. Burn rate surged but actual value is just a few hundred dollars, not much impact. Shibarium privacy upgrade and Japan approving SHIB are positives but distant support.
$QNT $ETH $SHIB
In short: watch 0.00000550 closely; only holding above and breaking the trend line gives a chance, otherwise expect continued pullback. Don’t rush to trade, wait for direction! 👀#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #OctoberRateHikeOdds October's Fed call may come down to a two-day data handoff 👀
PCE lands Sept 30, then payrolls Oct 2. Hike odds have already swung from nearly 70% toward 50%, showing how little conviction markets have.
What caught my attention is the sequencing. Softer PCE may cool hike bets, but strong jobs could reverse that days later.
The real signal isn't either report alone. It's whether inflation and employment finally tell the Fed the same story.Tonight at 20:30, two data points will be released simultaneously: Core PCE Price Index + Final GDP
PCE is the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, and GDP directly affects market expectations for rate hikes or cuts
If PCE ≥ 0.4% and GDP exceeds expectations, rate cuts will be delayed further, $BTC is likely to quickly test 82,800; if it doesn't hold, it will test 82,000-82,500
If PCE ≤ 0.2% and GDP is below expectations, inflation cools and the economy weakens, rate cut expectations return
With a rebound on the news, $BTC will first surge to 83,800-84,200; only with strong volume and a stable hold can it challenge 84,900-85,000. $ETH failed to hold 2701 again, I'm numb.
Honestly, I was really excited watching the market this morning. Last night it touched 2701, then at the close it pierced 2745 again, but it all dropped back on me. The candlestick closed ugly, hanging high like someone gasping after running half the race.
Looking at BTC, it rose over 40% this quarter, currently around $83,400, marking the best quarter in nearly two years — yet it still dropped 0.6% today. What does that mean? The quarterly gains are done, but recent buying momentum is fading. The PCE data hasn't come out yet today, and I just want to know if this thing will teach me a lesson again.
Last night I wanted to go long near 2679, but after placing the order I withdrew it because there was no volume, I didn't dare to enter. I'll wait for volume to pick up and for it to hold above 2701 before I act, otherwise I'll look down to 2639 to see if it respects that level. There are too many fake moves here, people on top are likely to get hit today. $BTC $ETH $BTC $ETH $420 million long positions were liquidated, yet the market did not follow through with a one-sided drop; instead, it remains stuck in consolidation waiting for direction.
What’s truly worth watching isn’t the liquidation numbers, but the fact that such massive leverage clearing hasn’t triggered a trend.
Currently, capital is simultaneously waiting for the US-Iran negotiations to conclude and for PCE, non-farm payrolls, and October rate hike expectations to provide answers. The macro variables haven’t diminished; rather, they are piling up, making no one dare to confidently bet on a single direction.
Therefore, at this stage, I’m more inclined to define the market as consolidating; a single spike can’t confirm a trend. Before answers arrive, high volatility doesn’t mean the direction has emerged. It’s safer to wait for data releases and negotiation progress, then follow the structure accordingly. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Strive, a US-listed company, cumulatively purchased 6,106 $BTC from August 24 to September 25, at an average price of $80,375 per coin, with a total investment of $490.77 million.
After this round of accumulation, the total holdings are 27,462 BTC, with a weighted average cost of approximately $78,000 per BTC.
2. Source of funds:
The funds for this round of accumulation mainly come from the issuance of SATA perpetual preferred shares, with a small portion from the exercise of stock warrants. SATA requires an annual fixed dividend payment of about 12.75%.
The essence of the model: financing through high-yield perpetual preferred shares to buy BTC, aiming for BTC price appreciation to outperform SATA dividend costs, thereby increasing the number of BTC per share.
85% of the new funds come from SATA preferred share financing.
3. Officially disclosed future plans:
Core goal: continuously accumulate Bitcoin to increase the number of BTC per share.
① Continue to use SATA financing as the main tool
SATA is Strive's core leverage tool; it will continue issuing SATA to raise funds and buy BTC on dips when the market price is favorable.
② No selling of BTC (official commitment)
Since transforming into a BTC treasury company, no BTC has been sold; the strategy is long-term holding without short-term trading or selling of BTC holdings.
③ Dual main lines of capital allocation
Main line: continue increasing BTC holdings
Secondary line: allocate Strategy (MSTR) preferred shares STRC as a same-sector asset allocation to also obtain cash flow incomeBTC support remains stable, but don't rush to chase in the short term
$BTC has consecutively stopped falling three times in the weekly range of 82500–83000, then rebounded, indicating that this support is temporarily effective. However, stable support does not mean a new trend has started. After continuous upward movement, momentum marginally weakens; the current phase looks more like a temporary peak rather than the start of an accelerating trend.
There are two possible paths ahead: one is a direct pullback entering a correction; the other is $ETH first testing 2800 USD, completing a final surge, then weakening in sync with BTC. Therefore, ETH 2800 is a key short-term observation level. If it touches but cannot hold above, beware of exhaustion after a false breakout.
Altcoins have generally risen, but mostly passively driven by ETH, lacking independent momentum, and volume has not increased correspondingly. Rising without volume makes it hard to build strong confidence, so chasing longs has a low cost-performance ratio.
Strategically, do not rush to chase gains; patiently wait for a strong pullback, then look for the next opportunity to enter a bullish trend. At this stage, defense and observation are more important than offense. Focus on whether BTC's weekly support will be tested again and whether ETH shows signs of fatigue after its surge.
$BTC $ETH
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 😂 My TP/SL settings are working perfectly… just not the way I planned.
Every time price gets close to my take-profit, I close the trade early and run. 🏃♂️
But when it hits my stop-loss?
“No problem, let’s add more margin.” 😂😂
At this point, the strategy is basically:
TP = escape
SL = add margin 💀
Crypto trading really does test your discipline more than your technical analysis.
#Crypto #Trading #BTC #OKX The altcoin market is showing weakness again, and volatility is picking up as traders position ahead of the latest inflation data. I’ve opened a short position on $SOON, with the position size kept relatively controlled. If the price rebounds into resistance, I may consider adding gradually rather than entering everything at once. One thing that continues to concern me about $SOON is its very low circulating supply, currently around 3–4%, which can create significant volatility when liquidity isNot just another altcoin concept ETF idling—Bitwise's NEAR spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $35.5 million on its first day.
The first US spot NEAR ETP, Bitwise NEAR ETF (ticker NRR), launched with approximately $36 million in assets under management, a net inflow of about $35.5 million, and trading volume around $15.1 million on day one. Previously, it was stated that the fund planned to internally stake the NEAR it holds to participate in an average staking reward of about 5% (ChainCatcher/Bitwise 9/30; compared to today's on-chain whales and Brazil's XRPL mirror, these are different entities with mainstream products landing NEW: first-day inflow ≠ sustained capital inflow, AUM fluctuates with market, planned internal staking is only a stated plan, about 5% reward is a disclosed figure, not guaranteed; OKX NEAR about 5.08). Not investment advice. Ethena ($ENA) — Standard Chartered's logic breakdown for the $2 target by the end of 2028:
1. Massive expansion of the stablecoin market
Standard Chartered predicts the global stablecoin total market size will grow 7 times in the next 3 years; USDe, as a crypto-native synthetic stablecoin, will capture market share.
USDe's TVL scale continues to expand, driving growth in protocol fees and funding rate income.
2. Fee-Switch implementation is a key catalyst
Once governance passes the Fee-Switch, ENA stakers can capture the protocol's real cash flow.
Standard Chartered assumes: the ENA token will become a yield-capturing asset, no longer just a pure governance token; protocol revenue increases will support token valuation.
3. Narrative of RWA + institutional adoption
USDe can connect with institutional RWAs, on-chain government bonds, and institutional custody; Standard Chartered believes Ethena will become an important choice for institutional crypto dollar assets, bringing incremental TVL.
4. Buyback plan benefits
The project newly launched an ENA buyback mechanism, using part of the protocol income to repurchase ENA, reducing circulating selling pressure and hedging unlocking pressure.
5. Valuation assumptions
Standard Chartered back-calculates the ENA valuation at the end of 2028 based on "USDe TVL growth + protocol revenue growth + token yield capture," arriving at the $2 target.1. When a strong coin drops to a certain stage, don't rush to bottom-fish. After about nine consecutive days of decline, start watching for rebound signals. 2. If the coin price rises for two consecutive days in a short period, don't chase highs blindly; reduce your position a bit. 3. If a single-day gain exceeds 7%, focus on monitoring the rally the next day; don't rush to chase. 4. The stronger the coin, the less you should rush at the sight of a big rise; waiting for a pullback to stabilize is usually more comfortable. 5. If there is little movement for three consecutive days, just keep watching; If there is still no movement after another 3 days, consider changing your target. 6. If you can't even recover the previous day's cost the next day, it means the timing is wrong. Exit when necessary. 7. When the gainers chart shows continuous trends, the rhythm often changes over three, five, or seven days. After two consecutive days, wait for a pullback; on the fifth day, focus on taking profits. 8. When trading, always look at volume. Breaking through with high volume at low levels is worth watching, but if high volume rises but the price keeps stalling, you should watch for pullbacks. 9. Follow the trend—don't go head-to-head with it. For short-term trading, look at the 3-day moving average; for medium-term gains, look at the 80-day moving average; for the long term, look at the 120-day moving average. 10. Small funds fear being anxious the most. What truly determines whether an account can get up and running is method, mindset, and execution. Before opportunities come, be patient and wait. Once you develop the habit of trading, it works better than any indicator. $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落, PCE becomes key tonight. #财报观察员: Micron's earnings report approaches, AI storage demand becomes the focus, #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%, the highest since 2002Bitcoin has been consolidating within a descending wedge for 8 days. On the 1-hour chart, it keeps forming lower highs, and each time it touches the upper boundary, it gets pushed back. A downward sloping support line has formed below, with the price repeatedly finding support at the lower boundary. Once a true breakout of this pattern is confirmed and the price holds above the previous range high, there is a high probability of a continued upward move. Currently, support is still found near the fair value gap around 82,800. The resistance encountered yesterday coincides exactly with the intersection of a dense volume area and the descending trendline.
As long as the 82,800 level holds, the overall structure remains bullish. The real confirmation signal is holding above 85,000; once confirmed, the price is likely to continue toward the 90,000 area. This level is emphasized because a large number of sell orders are stacked there, and only a true volume breakout can prove this is not a false breakout.
There is an unusual aspect to this rally—the price is rising while open interest is decreasing. Typically, large rallies are accompanied by increased leverage, but this time it seems more like spot buying is dominating. The continuous accumulation by spot ETFs might be one reason. Additionally, the new narrative of tokenized equity has been developing rapidly recently. The entire crypto industry might be undergoing a valuation reset, with many altcoins indeed experiencing simultaneous explosions.
From the monthly chart perspective, Bitcoin is forming a classic megaphone pattern. Previously, once the central axis resistance was broken, a violent surge would begin. Now it has again reached a similar central axis resistance level. The monthly candle will close in about 10 hours, and if a breakout is confirmed, historical patterns suggest a strong rally is likely to follow.
October is approaching, and historically this month has not been bad for Bitcoin overall. Although last year there was the famous big pullback on October 10, if you look closely, the liquidation scale was even more extreme than it appeared. However, from the overall monthly performance perspective, October historically is not too bad. The funding rate is currently neutral to slightly low, indicating that short positions still dominate the market, especially with many altcoins showing clearly negative funding rates. Historically, this structure often corresponds to subsequent price increases, which is one reason I remain optimistic. The real signal that would make me cautious is a confirmed break below 82,800 on the 4-hour chart; in that case, the next target would be 80,000.
On the Ethereum side, it has clearly been stronger than Bitcoin during this consolidation. The tokenized equity narrative could be a good catalyst for Ethereum, and a major breakout of ETH against Bitcoin is also brewing. Additionally, a heads-up: the U.S. midterm elections will take place in early November. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback during every midterm election. Whether this time will repeat the same script or if the situation is different is a risk point that must be closely watched going forward.$BTC $ETH Monthly Crypto Market Summary (09.30)
Summary:
1. The price behavior of risk assets under the October rate hike and rate hike cycle.
2. U.S. Treasury withdrawals liquidity, unemployment rate is at a cyclical low. Conditions for a U.S. stock market peak are almost met.
3. The Korean Composite Index that no one cares about anymore.
4. $BTC is very likely in the early stage of a bull market, but currently still missing a daily-level pullback.
5. Patiently waiting for the first weekly-level second buy signal in the bull market.
6. The probability of new lows is extremely low, but it is still not recommended to use too much leverage; caution is advised.
Operations:
1. Holding $BTC short positions, close shorts at 69333 and open longs;
2. Holding $ETH short positions, close shorts at 2050 and open longs;
3. Holding $SOL short positions, close shorts at 90 and open longs;
4. Monthly dollar-cost averaging 30,000 yuan into $BTC and 10,000 yuan into $SOL at the end of each month.
My mainstream spot holdings are currently in a buy-only state. For altcoin spot, I sold half on August 30 and the remaining half on September 29; currently, I am fully out of altcoins.
My spot copy trading started in June, and in three months it has only grown about 35%, which is relatively low. But this is reasonable, as altcoin explosions generally concentrate in the mid-to-late bull market, which is expected from late 2027 to the end of 2028, when altcoins will experience a broad rally.
At that time, tenfold or twentyfold gains will be common; before then, doubling overall is already good. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $XAG silver is now 60 yuan/gram
100 grams is 6000 yuan
which is the upper limit of the monthly salary for most workers
In other words:
Most workers' wages are less than 2 taels of silver9/30
Bitcoin Intraday Review｜Throughout the day, fluctuating between 82000‑84000 with sideways grinding. Sideways movement is not a waste of time; it is often the calm before the storm.
Three underlying logics:
① The market is quietly awaiting the release of the small non-farm payrolls, non-farm payrolls, and PCE heavyweight data. Large funds remain on the sidelines, unwilling to initiate unilateral moves;
② ETF funds flow in and out intermittently. There is heavy profit-taking pressure near 84000, while support appears at 82000, temporarily balancing bullish and bearish forces;
③ The main players repeatedly pierce the range, cleansing short-term contract chips, continuously wearing down traders' patience.
Tonight, ADP is very likely to break the current consolidation pattern! Many people lose money not because of sharp one-sided drops or surges, but because they can't endure the grinding, losing composure and frequently opening positions. Trading ultimately tests temperament; only those who can endure loneliness can wait for the market to come.
Yingzhen｜Follow the trend without blind obedience, don't stubbornly resist against the trend, discipline first, patiently wait for the market to play out. The future is NEAR.
Bitwise has introduced $NRR — an ETF based on NEAR, giving investors access to a network positioned at the intersection of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies.
$NRR became the first spot ETP on $NEAR in the USA.
Separately, Bitwise is betting on its own staking: the company claims the possibility of earning about 5% staking rewards from NEAR.
Why NEAR?
The first reason is the connection with AI.
$NEAR was created with the involvement of researchers who worked on the development of modern artificial intelligence.
Now the team positions the blockchain as a transactional layer for the future agent economy, where AI agents will be able to independently interact with financial systems.
The second factor is NEAR Intents. According to Bitwise, the protocol has already processed over $32 billion in transaction volume. A year ago, this figure was less than $1 billion.
The third feature is cross-chain interaction. NEAR Intents uses smart contracts to conduct transactions between different networks, trying to reduce risks associated with centralized bridges.
Another argument is scalability.
NEAR transactions finalize in about 1.2 seconds, and their cost is only fractions of a cent.
Tokenomics is also important. According to Bitwise, NEAR's market capitalization is about $6 billion, all tokens are already unlocked, and the annual inflation was recently halved to 2.5%.
For the crypto market, the appearance of an ETF on NEAR is important not only as a new investment product. It is a signal that traditional financial companies are beginning to view blockchain infrastructure through the lens of the future AI economy.
If AI agents really become new economic participants, they will need infrastructure for payments, asset exchange, and interaction between different blockchains.
This is the role NEAR is trying to take on today.
At the same time, the ETF does not guarantee NEAR's price growth, and staking yield does not eliminate market risks. But the appearance of $NRR shows that institutional access to NEAR is moving to a new level.
The next phase of competition may take place not just between blockchains, but between networks capable of becoming the financial infrastructure for autonomous AI agents.Tonight's US August PCE report, $BTC $ETH $ZEC may experience significant volatility, be careful not to overcommit, wait for the results to clarify the direction before taking action.
Current market expectations:
* Core PCE monthly rate: +0.3%, previous +0.2%
* Core PCE annual rate: 3.3%, expected to be basically the same as previous
* Overall PCE monthly rate: +0.4%, annual rate about 3.7%.
① Core PCE ≤0.2%
This is a relatively positive outcome. It indicates inflation pressure has not continued to rise, the market may reprice rate cut expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to fall back, and risk assets like gold, BTC, and ETH may receive short-term support.
② Core PCE = 0.3%
Basically meets expectations, the market will most likely first watch the market reaction. Since US Treasury yields are already high, with the 10-year yield recently exceeding 5.2%, even meeting expectations may not immediately trigger a strong rally.
③ Core PCE ≥0.4%
This calls for caution. It means inflation is more stubborn than expected, the market may further price in the Fed maintaining high rates or even raising rates again, increasing upward pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields, and gold and crypto markets may face short-term pressure. The market is already highly sensitive to further rate hikes. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 【5000 U Challenge 10000 U｜Dual Currency Yield Real Trading Diary】
Day 15
Starting Capital: 5000U
Current Capital: 5049.92U
Cumulative Profit: +49.92U (+1.00%)
Today's Profit: +0.38U (+0.00%)
📝 Market Review
On the eve of the non-farm payroll data, the market overall entered a low-volume wait-and-see mode, with the main market fluctuating narrowly. Both bulls and bears dared not launch major attacks. $BTC oscillated back and forth between 83000 and 84200, with small bearish and bullish candles alternating repeatedly. Frequent wicks appeared, volatility was suppressed, and the market awaited the evening data release to determine direction.
Macro pressures have not eased: Middle East geopolitical tensions and October rate hike expectations continue to hang over the market, driving strong risk aversion. Major coins remain in consolidation, altcoins show weak rotation, thematic coins have limited rebound strength, and the market is reluctant to bet on direction early. The market's profit-making effect is weak.
Today's Operations:
No new large dual currency yield orders were opened today; only 15% of funds were allocated to Friday options, with 20% held as cash flow bullets. Approaching the non-farm data, I don't want to lock all chips; priority is to keep cash flow flexible to handle two-way wicks after data release.
Previously matured dual currency yields continue to bring small amounts of coin-based and U-based interest, slowly diluting spot position costs.
Continuing the plan of phased low buying, gradually accumulating chips in small amounts rather than heavy bottom-fishing in one go.
Small position of $xSOXS is still held, controlled within 5% of total funds, neither cutting losses nor adding positions, patiently observing.
Keeping sufficient cash bullets reserved, as tonight's non-farm volatility will be amplified, to guard against sweeping risks up or down.
Position Status 📊
Spot base positions have been gradually established, with ample cash reserves, allowing flexibility to advance or retreat.
$BTC: Box range oscillation, key support at 82900, resistance at 84800, waiting for non-farm to choose direction.
$ETH: Moves with BTC but with greater elasticity; volatility will be more intense after data release.
$ZEC: Weakening after positive news realization, following overall market sentiment, waiting for new catalysts.
💡 Today's Insight
The account was almost flat today, earning a negligible 0.38U, which is typical before major news.
Many want to pre-position to bet on rises or falls before non-farm, but two-way wicks sweeping stop losses are normal.
The most important now is not how much is earned today, but to arrange positions and cash properly and prepare for both market scenarios.
Whether a surge or a plunge, holding cash prevents being passive.
Do not predict outcomes; wait for the market to show real signals before acting. Protecting principal is more important than short-term speculative gains.
⚠️ Personal real trading record only, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please DYOR and trade rationally.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $AAVE AAVE 30-minute level (long at 159.54)
This ID's view: Attempting to go long near the lower edge of the descending pivot at 159.54, which is like reaching out for a rebound red envelope on a downhill slope. The overall structure is defined as a downtrend continuation; this trade is a counter-trend gamble, and I am prepared for the market to tug back and forth, testing my mindset.
Entry: This is not a standard second or third buy bullish opportunity, purely betting on support holding near the low pivot (ZD). It is a preemptive test position without waiting for volume confirmation, so the margin for error is limited.
Stop loss: Short-term defense is placed below the recent minor pullback low; the ultimate defense level is ZD=159.1. If the price breaks below this level, the support is invalidated.
Chan Theory structure:
From the high at 176.24, it has fallen to form the first 30-minute downtrend pivot, with resistance (ZG) around 165.0 and support (ZD) around 159.1. To reverse the bearish pattern, the price must hold above and break through ZG; if it breaks below ZD and makes a new low, the downtrend structure will continue.
Wyckoff volume-price observation:
The high at 176.24 showed a new high with reduced volume and a long upper shadow, a typical high-level distribution signal. The main down phase had full bearish candles with heavy volume selling pressure. Near 159.54, the selling volume has somewhat contracted, and selling pressure has temporarily eased, but there is no strong volume surge with bullish candles to confirm absorption by the main force; it is just a brief pause in selling, not accumulation.
Key observation points:
Currently, the rebound is within the pivot; the focus is on whether volume can surge to challenge ZG. If it breaks below 159.1, the rebound expectation is invalidated, and the bullish view should be abandoned. 🔥 7U挑战1亿｜第39天 从 7U 出发，目标是 1亿U。 目前账户资产约 3700U，其中生活开支已经用了约 2600U，现在可继续操作的资金还有 1000U+。 这几天一直在陆续调整仓位，今天甚至一整天都没怎么看电脑，手机使用时间也不到30分钟。 做Crypto的人一定要注意身体。 长期盯盘、看数据、扫链，精神压力和眼睛的负担都不小。赚到钱之前，先保证自己还能长期留在这个市场。 📌 目前主要关注这些方向： 1️⃣ $BTC 目前仍然持有多单，主仓继续观察。 2️⃣ $PUMP 基本面和近期走势相对不错，所以保留小仓位多单，暂时不会激进加仓。 3️⃣ $PONS 目前基本面吸引力有所下降，收入表现明显弱于之前，因此暂时不会把它放在和PUMP同样的位置。 4️⃣ ENA 重点观察接下来关于进入股票永续市场的进一步消息，同时关注 USDE规模增长速度。 5️⃣ ONDO 目前依然是RWA赛道值得关注的项目之一，但代币本身的实际应用场景仍然需要继续观察。 6️⃣ Tether Gold / RWA 近期表现不错，接下来重点看有没有新的参与者进入，尤其是更多RWA发行方出现。 最近也尝With Data Week approaching, the broader crypto market remains cautious. Volatility has compressed, and traders appear more interested in protecting capital than chasing short-term moves. For now, the focus remains on key support and resistance levels across BTC, ETH, and ZEC. $BTC — 84,120 BTC has stabilized after testing the 83,000 area and is now moving sideways. RSI is around 47, while MACD remains slightly below the zero line, showing that momentum has not fully shifted bullish. Resistance: $OKB today +2.07% OKX, it alone rises while the whole market falls.
OKB is the strongest independent trend today. The crypto market changed today, BTC -3.35%, ETH -6%, but OKB pushed to 120. Behind this is the incremental fees from X Layer + OKX buyback stabilization. A 76% buy ratio is a platform token's defense indicator.
It moves independently because its path is not tied to the overall market. OKX launched X Layer gas token function, 3-MEX quasi-spot ETF, and OKX Jumpstart this week, all stacking buybacks; but all are exchange businesses, not asset businesses. The logic is "platform fee tokens are the valuation ceiling."
OKB is a "platform voucher, not an asset." If $118 is lost, halve your position; if $122 holds, look to $125; if $114 breaks, clear your position. After the market changes, it can move independently, but note that fundamentals have not changed. Whales going all-in is not your template
The market sees Big Brother Maji adding positions again. $150 million in perpetual contracts, all long positions, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL launching together with no hedging. The position size rose from $93 million to $150 million, and leverage has also stepped up. BTC holds the line, ETH bears the heavy load, SOL charges with elasticity, but the risk factors of the three overlap heavily; when the market is favorable, they all fly together, and when it turns against them, they all crash together.
Tonight, PCE, non-farm payrolls, and Federal Reserve speeches come one after another. When US Treasury yields twitch, the net value shakes accordingly. The market's attempt to rally lacks strength and the pullback seems to be testing his margin line. His old method is to tough it out, add margin, and wait it out. Whales have the ammunition and can afford to endure.
Ordinary people shouldn't take this as a signal. You don't have the confidence to keep adding positions infinitely; blindly copying a fully exposed one-sided position is like using your salary to catch someone else's chips. Watching the show is fine, but copying the homework is deadly. Position size should first consider fault tolerance before discussing direction.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Tonight at 20:30, the US August personal income, spending, and PCE data will be released, along with the third estimate of US Q2 GDP. Ajian will now walk everyone through a preliminary analysis of this small macro data package. First, the headline PCE itself is not the most important focus; ordinary traders only need to pay attention to whether the core PCE, consumer spending, and GDP revisions collectively indicate that "demand is still too strong." If the answer is yes, the Federal Reserve will find it hard to relax.
So tonight, focus directly on three things:
Has the core PCE continued to decline?
Has consumer spending noticeably cooled down?
Does the third GDP estimate continue to show strong US demand?
If inflation is high, consumption is strong, and GDP is stable: the market may continue to price in high interest rates;
If inflation falls, consumption weakens, and GDP is also weak: expectations for rate cuts may have room to expand again#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 After playing for so long, I found that the only characteristic of those coins with dozens of times multiplier is "no spot trading", for example, Bight, Beat, Rave, Coai, River, JellyJelly, etc.
I don't know why I always manage to short these coins accurately, causing me to lose 100 coins in a year 最近市场围绕一个核心话题产生了剧烈分歧：当前到底是一轮新牛市的起点，还是宏观紧缩下的触底反弹？ 表面上看，市场逻辑似乎陷入了“悖论”：美联储仍处在加息周期或高利率维持阶段，后续鹰派预期并未完全消退。按照传统宏观宏观框架，紧缩周期很难承载真正的全面牛市。 但在 9 月加息动作落地后，BTC 在经历短暂下挫后不仅没有破位，反而强力突破前高、站上了全新的价格区间。 加息周期里走出了“牛市范儿”，这背后的底层驱动力究竟是什么？ 一、 破局的钥匙：美股的牛市底座与相关性重塑 要解释这个反常现象，必须把视线放大到全球资产的整体联动上——这一轮全球牛市的内核，根源在于美股；而美股的内核，根源在于 AI 的产业革命。 回顾 BTC 从 12 万美元回撤至 6 万甚至 5.7 万美元的区间，当时许多人断定熊市已至。然而如果同步观察美股就会发现：美股虽然随宏观波动有所回撤，但其长期的牛市结构与上升趋势从未被破坏。 随着现货 ETF 落地、微策略（MicroStrategy）等币股公司的示范效应以及大量传统机构资金的深度渗透，BTC 与美股（特别是美科技股）的相关性已被前所未有地强化。只要美股的牛市底座The official feedback from the United States has already been delivered to Iran. The good news is that the differences between the two sides do not lie in the content or terms of the plan, but rather in the order of execution within the content. Just this point alone is a positive sign for the current negotiations!
However, Pakistan and Russia have exerted varying degrees of pressure on the US and Iran respectively, hoping that their pressure can help facilitate this agreement.
Pakistan's approach is based on the previous "Mecca Joint Defense Agreement." Its defense minister stated that if Saudi Arabia needs it, Pakistan can assist Saudi Arabia in countering the Iran-backed Houthi forces, effectively creating the stance that "Saudi Arabia's enemies are Pakistan's enemies." This statement is clearly a stern warning not to attempt to threaten Saudi Arabia using the Houthi forces and to expedite the peace process.
Russia's approach is more interesting. Citing damage to a refinery caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, it has directly extended the diesel export ban until October. It should be noted that recently Trump has frequently shown goodwill toward Russia, mainly aiming to gain control over Russia's diesel export market and energy supply pressure. Russia's move clearly tells the US that alternative energy export methods are not feasible and that reconciliation with Iran is the only option.
It can be seen that regional countries' mediation and maneuvering are not just about saying nice things. When someone plays the "red face," someone else must play the "white face," otherwise the situation can easily get out of control, especially since the US-Iran talks are currently at a critical stage.
This also explains why the dispute between the US and Iran this time is not about the content of the plan but the order of execution. According to this logic, the news is slightly more optimistic than the reports from early this morning.
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 🚩Good evening, old friends, I am the veteran~ Super Bro👆🏻
$SOON is skyrocketing straight from the ground🚀
SOON surged from 0.17 directly to 0.46, truly a massive surge from the ground, like riding a rocket🚀
Super Bro, let me break down the underlying logic for you (for reference only):
I think there are three reasons:
First, the narrative has been greatly upgraded, transforming from an ordinary L2 to AI financial infrastructure, with platform revenue used for buyback and burn, fully fueling deflation expectations;
Second, Korean retail investors are rushing in crazily, once Upbit and Bithumb got involved, the kimchi premium directly drove the market cap flying;
Third, contract funds are taking turns, the short squeeze market is grinding the shorts hard on the ground. 😂 Another short squeeze kill
Looking at the trend, the daily MA5 is at 0.3455, the price at 0.44 is seriously deviating from the moving average, with a huge divergence rate, and the 1-hour level is sprinting along a steep trendline. The short-term RSI is seriously overbought, a pullback and shakeout could happen anytime.
👉👉 How to operate?
Don’t be a bag holder, wait for a pullback to stabilize between 0.38 and 0.40 before buying in batches, set defense at 0.34. Chasing highs now, beware of a sudden waterfall washout by the dog whales at midnight!
Always remember, 【protect your principal】, don’t let the doubling myth turn into your crash scene.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
$BTC $ETH $82900-$83470 ground for four hours, closing in: the low point rose from $82956 to $83023, the high point was pressed down from $83470 to $83339.
At 15:00, large orders of 688 units and at 16:00, 628 units hit near $83000, the price neither broke down nor bounced back — it wasn't that someone took the orders, but both sides simultaneously withdrew their limit orders. At 17:00, volume dropped to 76 units, bouncing back to $83289.
The $83300 short position has half the position left, floating profit shrank from $284 to $11. Stop loss at $83650, target at $82900 unchanged. Lesson: the most costly thing in consolidation is not the judgment, but the position size.
#OKX星球 #BTCLatest data as of September 30
$ZEC largest short position is 55.63 million USD short position
Current unrealized profit is about 3.57 million USD
Opening price is about 1501
Fee income is about 156,500 USD
Is this prepared for long-term holding?
With such a large position, holding for half a year could earn several million USD in fees
Currently, ZEC long-short advantage, from longs completely suppressing shorts
Now most whales' short positions have started to be profitable
Long positions that haven't exited are starting to see significant profit drawdowns
The advantage is slowly shifting towards the shorts, but Grayscale is still claiming ZEC is very valuable, though it seems to have little effect, and no one is taking over the position yet #财报观察员: Micron's earnings report is approaching, AI storage demand becomes the focus
The leader has something to say
The long position on BTC at 83000 has already been entered.
Micron is releasing its earnings tonight, which is a barometer for AI storage. The market expects revenue of 50.8 billion, a gross margin of 86%, and mass shipments of HBM4 have started.
The logic is very clear. If Micron beats expectations, it means AI hardware demand hasn't collapsed, money will continue to stay in tech stocks, and BTC will actually lack incremental funds. If Micron misses expectations, the storage sector will pull back, risk appetite contraction will spread, and BTC will be under pressure.
The macro side is not easy either. The 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.6%, the highest since 2002. Although rate hike expectations have fallen back to 50%, long-term rates are suppressing, and the valuation ceiling for risk assets remains.
My long position at 83000 is in, stop loss set at 81500, target is 86000 to 87000. Tonight is PCE, tomorrow night is Micron's earnings, Friday is non-farm payrolls, three events packed together. Position size is not heavy, not betting on a single direction. Will decide whether to add positions after data comes out. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
No chasing highs or panic selling lows, waiting for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, stop losses must be set on positions, good luck.ZEC has dropped so much that even its own mother wouldn't recognize it.
It crashed from 1460 straight down to 1390 without any decent rebound. Are the bulls numb by now?
The project team just did something very unusual—they offered a $1.5 million bounty to hunt down the discoverer of the Orchard vulnerability.
On the surface, it looks like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted, but think about it: a project that has to rely on a huge bounty to plug a fundamental privacy protocol hole—how much real value does it still have?
Retail investors are still eyeing 1400 to buy the dip, but the big players have quietly been transferring funds to exchanges on-chain.
The 15-minute chart shows it clearly: the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages are all pressing down overhead, and every price rebound is weak and soft.
This isn’t building a bottom; it’s like boiling a frog slowly.
78% of the market is short, and a sudden spike could trigger a short squeeze, but no one can stop the downward momentum of the big trend.
My short positions were set up long ago, and profits are steadily growing.
The bearish logic hasn’t changed; 1400 below is just the first stop, and breaking that means 1300 next.
Strength isn’t always real strength, and weakness isn’t always real weakness.
When everyone is focused on that so-called "bottom," the real bottom is often much deeper.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Please prove yourself, brother aster!
Although this time there is still a chance to deceive me again, I am love-brained, and I still firmly hold! The polishing time has been too long, and many people have lost patience!
When others rise, aster doesn't move; when others don't move, it rises by itself. All the news is reflected in the K-line. Is there some information I don't know?
Other on-chain exchanges, hype and lit, and some others, only aster is lying flat, but the vehicle is indeed too heavy, affected by Cz, with more retail investors.
I don't know how long the big players will keep shaking it, but the sideways movement is indeed well controlled, very clever. Just hold it as a stablecoin; maybe there will be a little surprise.
$ASTER Big Brother Maji closed multiple HYPE long positions consecutively at the 85.39 price level.
The total exposure is 155 million USD, which is not a large volume this time. It's a partial reduction and profit-taking, not a full exit. But the signal deserves careful consideration: it's not a passive cut, but an active withdrawal of some positions at resistance; consciously reducing altcoin attack exposure before the big tests of PCE and non-farm payrolls.
The overall BTC-ETH-SOL major group bullish pattern remains unchanged, but for highly volatile small tokens, the approach is "fight while retreating."
Many see the reduction as bearish, but this is more like his usual tactic: after gaining some profit, first lock in part of it, keeping the base position to continue betting. Neither fully missing out nor recklessly holding high-elasticity positions amid macro uncertainty.
The veteran's way: survive first, then seek profit.
$BTC $ETH 【Crypto Market Survival Guide】——When leverage meets PCE, who’s the last fool to leave?
Tonight’s market feels just like a surprise quiz announced by the homeroom teacher; the whole class is flipping through books, but no one knows which subject will be tested.
On the BTC side, 80,516 is like the back door of the classroom—once someone slips out here, a chain of truants follows, spreading faster than gossip in the class group chat. 88,520 is the security guard’s line at the front door; anyone trying to break through will be chased out, and the shorts become the ones being hunted.
ETH is even more intense, with $600 million stacked up and down like two uncovered manholes. If it hits 2,562, longs fall in; if 2,828 breaks, shorts go down with it. The price swings between these two pits like walking down a dark alley at night—you can only pray you’re not the unlucky one stepping on the wrong cover.
Liquidation is essentially the exchange’s "auto-renewing membership"—you think you’re trading, but you’re actually paying the platform a monthly fee. Leverage doesn’t amplify profits; it amplifies the illusion that "I’m still alive."
On the macro side, Micron’s earnings report sets the tone first; the market is waiting to see if AI storage is really in demand. Nonfarm payrolls and PCE are queued up next; risk appetite flips, crypto is never late, but leverage doesn’t clean up the mess. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Recently, everyone should have a deep understanding of the BTC and ETH market.
It’s stuck at a high level, tugging back and forth, suddenly surging, then quickly crashing down again.
Just when you chase in, you get trapped; you cut losses immediately and exit, and the market rebounds right away.
Many people feel the market lacks direction, but I see this as high-level oscillation shaking out chips.
The repeated fluctuations are to wash out positions without a trading plan, wear down traders’ patience, and constantly test psychological limits. Especially for those using high leverage, even if the overall direction is right, if the timing is off or the position size is too heavy, you’ll be forcibly liquidated before the market truly takes off.
So the most important thing now is not to guess the next candlestick’s rise or fall, but to ask yourself three questions first:
Is your position size too heavy?
Is your leverage too high?
If the market continues to oscillate in the opposite direction, can your funds withstand it?
High-level oscillations easily create illusions: a rise makes you think a breakout is coming, a fall makes you think the trend has reversed. Most people lose money not because they don’t understand the market, but because they can’t resist frequently chasing highs and selling lows, with high leverage amplifying emotions.
Before the direction becomes clear, patience itself is a trading strategy.
The market won’t stop giving opportunities just because you missed a move. But once you’re liquidated with heavy positions and high leverage, all subsequent moves have nothing to do with you.
Whether this current oscillation is a shakeout or brewing a downturn, the market will give the answer later.
Before the answer lands, prioritize protecting your principal, manage your leverage well, and don’t be the one washed out. From the current market level (0.03153) directly pulling up is a typical "short squeeze/stop hunt" or "main force sneak attack" scenario. But to achieve this movement, the following three strict conditions must be met simultaneously, otherwise it is a bull trap:
Volume breakout of key resistance: The current price is just stuck below the 4-hour Bollinger upper band (0.03268) and the 24-hour high (0.0330). The premise of a direct pull-up is that there must be a 4-hour large bullish candle with volume breakout, breaking through 0.0330 in one go and holding above 0.0338 (daily Bollinger upper band). If volume does not increase, this pull-up is rogue behavior and most likely a false breakout.
[Practical response strategy (valuable tips)]
· To avoid missing out: You can lightly position near the current price of 0.0315 (e.g., 10-20% of your position), with a stop loss set at 0.0300 (below the 4-hour Bollinger middle band). If volume breaks through 0.0330, add to your long position.
· Right-side trading (conservative): Don’t guess if it will pull up directly. Wait for the 4-hour candle close price to hold above 0.0330, then wait for a pullback that does not break 0.0328 before entering long, targeting 0.0344 or higher.
· If it fails to pull up: If it repeatedly tests around 0.0330 without breaking through, or even shows a large bearish engulfing candle, immediately abandon bullish hopes and either short or exit to observe.
In summary: There is about a 30% chance of a direct pull-up, provided volume and the overall market cooperate. Don’t gamble, set your stop loss well, and use trial-and-error cost to seek profits from an upward breakout.🚨NEAR IS ABOUT TO START BURNING MORE SUPPLY!
NEAR’s 30% developer gas rebate comes off with nearcore 2.14, targeted around October 5.
The rebate was a kickback. When someone used a contract, 30% of the gas went back to the contract owner and 70% got burned.
After the upgrade, none of it goes back. All execution gas is burned.
More apps and more Intents flow take more $NEAR out of supply.Friends, let's talk about this surge in PHA and calmly look at the data📊
$PHA $AI
Current price 0.0814, 24h increase 22.4%, trading volume 12 million U, fluctuation range 0.0635-0.0825.
Data doesn't lie: the 24-hour average price is only 0.0712, the current price has clearly deviated from the average, indicating that chasing funds are taking over at a high level🤔
In the short term, chasing highs at this position has a very low cost-performance ratio; but if it pulls back and stabilizes around 0.070-0.072, trying a small position is okay, the AI sector funds haven't fully withdrawn yet.
To be safe, buying in batches is always more reliable than going all in.
What do you guys think? Will you buy PHA if it pulls back to 0.07?
If you have questions, leave them in the comments, let's solve them together!